The US goal was to control Venezuela’s and Iran’s oil as leverage to force China at the March 31 Trump/Xi summit to supply rare earth minerals that are required by the US military to function.
Plan A failed.
Venezuela’s oil is not enough leverage by itself.
Iran survived the US attack and has lit a fuse on a global bomb by closing Hormuz to all traffic except friends like China.
The US needs time to regroup and has indicated the summit may be delayed.
Plan B is the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) that has been sent to the gulf and should arrive in 7-10 days.
The MEU does not have the tools to reopen Hormuz, or to invade Iran, but does have the perfect tools for seizing or destroying tankers bound for China.
Since US allies refused to help reopen Hormuz, and probably don’t have the ability even if they tried, the US has a new goal to use the MEU to block China’s oil with an offer to unblock if China asks its friend to reopen Hormuz for all traffic.
This creates a complex negotiation.
Provide rare earth minerals needed by a military that plans to attack you, plus the oil your enemies need to not collapse and will use to attack you, in exchange for the oil needed to prevent your own collapse.
None of our best overshoot intellectuals for the last 50 years figured out Hideaway’s CACTUS theory, therefore it’s probable that neither US nor Chinese planners understand CACTUS, which means they will be gaming out the complex negotiation wondering who will be the last man standing, not realizing that energy shortages will trigger a Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System (CACTUS), and the whole world may go down, permanently.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
”Rancourt’s position is grounded in observable material consequences. The US, he argues, will not peacefully adapt to emerging multipolar powers. It will use force, destruction, and violence to maintain hegemony, and it will do so for decades. Pauses may occur. Negotiations may be attempted. But the trajectory is aggression. The Iran war vindicates this assessment with brutal specificity. On February 25, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a “historic” agreement with the United States was “within reach” ahead of renewed talks in Geneva.⁵ Three days later, the bombs fell. The negotiations were not a path to peace. They were staging. Rancourt warned of exactly this — that US diplomatic overtures toward Iran were setups for further assault rather than genuine peace efforts.
Brian Berletic, the Bangkok-based geopolitical analyst who runs The New Atlas, takes the ground-level case further. His argument is structural and civilizational: the United States has been exterminating indigenous populations, stealing land, and pilfering resources for nearly 200 years before Israel ever existed.⁶ The pattern runs from the American Midwest to Hawaii to the Philippines to Vietnam to Iraq to Iran without interruption. What makes anyone think, Berletic asks, that a nation that has done all of this would not be interested in controlling the most resource-rich region on Earth — with or without Israel?” ?
https://unbekoming.substack.com/p/the-house-always-wins
Thanks, interesting essay.
He confirms the Iran war is all about oil for USD, the objective that is never mentioned.
He has a interesting theory (I’m not sure is true) that nuclear weapons are theater used to motivate citizens to fund war spending and he makes a good case for who is actually in charge of US presidents and why policies never change regardless who is elected.
I like his UFC/WWE analogy for explaining geopolitics.
Unfortunately I didn’t see any evidence that he is CACTUS aware and appears to be blind to the possible consequences of this playground fight in Iran.
It’s hard to imagine how this will end quickly or well. Best case for Iran is a major economic crisis for the US, but that will be bad for everyone.
Peak insanity, time to be just as insane, from a hospital bed in Melbourne., so I’m on drugs, the Dr’s said so, so expect typing and grammatic errors…
Nothing really matters in the big scheme, all of us here know that, we collapse now or later, doesn’t matter, shit happens. None of us will ever get out of life alive, simple fact, so enjoy the ride.
Let’s have some fun and try and save the world for now, to sometime later. It’s all in Rob’s very capable hands, a simple, stupid, imbecilic type of probability of working, but just has a fraction of a chance. Your call Rob, it doesn’t have to be perfect, we just have to run along and spread it as a wide as possible.
If any of them are looking for an off ramp I’m offering, first in best dressed, my play, my peace rules, only explained to them when they get here.
Chance of it happening near zero, chance if we don’t try, absolute zero.
Well, that was damaging to my calm.
Hang in there, Hideaway. We need you.
And if they’re keeping you against your will, just say the word and we’ll come bust you loose. I imagine our un-denial gang would look something similar to Ike and his posse. Hopefully we fare better than they did when they tried to free Curly Bill.
I don’t know any details about Hideaway’s health, but he assures me is ok and will be home soon.
I hope to have a new essay up in a couple hours. It’s been difficult. Probably won’t be great but it says what the two of us feel.
Thanks, good to hear.
Hide is probably just on some good drugs… lucky bastard.
Best spirits I’ve ever seen Hideaway in.
I’m looking for ketamine in bulk quantities because it seems to have a short half life but Costco here doesn’t stock it.
Tips on a source for big cheap quantities would be appreciated.
Hours? do we have that??
Best spirits, because of being pain free due to modern complex western medicine, and when in this state, see things clearly, until all the little things in life close around us over time. I’m at my absolute best just after all the drugs have left my system, but we don’t seem to have that much time, I’ll add anything at the bottom Rob, I just trust you to do your best..
“all we are saying is give peace a chance” ”
“Go to Colac” for 5 leaders.. Simple, stupid, imbecilic, but possibly the only option on the table all 5 leaders, if they get the message from their own people via the viral power of the internet…
Hey doomer fam, I am back, from hanging out with my other fam. It was an amazing wedding, i was caught off guard by how touching it was and a truly epic night. I had no sense of having to hold myself back from proclaiming our cactus state, and just saw a bunch of young people adapting to the circumstances and life they were born into, in the best way they could. Lots more to share, but I also have to play catch up here for a bit, lots to do, and I am so glad to be back home safe n sound. Here is a photo of my last morning where I got up early and saw the sun rise in the east over the pacific ocean – a moment of rapture – enjoyed with my morning coffee ☕️🌞 before the long drive home.
glad to hear you made it Renaee.
What is peak insanity? I usually think of it as something like:
But I think peak insanity is more like this: Attaining an awareness & denial level that is so far advanced from the average person. Then taking that advanced level and correctly concluding that the Iran war has already set in motion the end of life as we know it. And now you have to wait for the rest of the world to catch up.
Only a matter of days, weeks, or maybe months before the panic buying goes through the roof. But in the meantime, life is moving along as if everything is normal. Going to work, baseball games, bbq’s, and apple pie.
I’m losing my fucking mind over here. Peak insanity style.
Is trying to stay sane even the right thing to do in this environment?
Hey bro,
My turn to say hang in there. You did say we were here to bear witness as our last act. Whenever I start thinking of my own level of growing anxiety and distress, I recall myself to the unfathomable suffering already borne by humankind and animal life since we’ve taken up the firestick. Then, it seems almost like a blessing that I have this opportunity to commiserate in the smallest degree so I may finish my consciousness with more compassion.
How grateful I am for this family of like-minded souls that have somehow found ourselves bound together here. Just think, out of the whole human history, we’ve made it to this space! That’s a bit of peak insanity, too, and one we can own with all our hearts. Thank you Rob really doesn’t begin to express it enough. This is how one feels with family because what we do for the other is the same as for ourselves, and we want the best for one another. Anytime you’re feeling you need an extra boost, please know that I do see you and would gladly share with you all any moments of peace that I might have to help you through the day.
Mr Zeus has a lion heart of courage and will see this through with you. We can still learn from him the art of living moment by moment and accepting that is our lot, and it is enough.
Love you and bless you.
You’re not alone Chris.
Hideaway and I are trying to push out a new essay. He’s struggling, I’m struggling.
It’s very hard to sanely discuss what is going on without looking insane when you feel insane because no one around you sees the same thing.
Never let a good crisis go to waste.
Israel is blowing the bridges on the Litani and destroying Lebanese homes south of the river.
Trump this morning said Iran is dead and the real enemy is the Democratic Party.
This isn’t really news, it’s just his usual verbal flatulence.
I posted it as evidence that he has lost his mind.
I’ve listened to this twice.
It’s the best explanation of Iran’s worldview and how it will respond to attacks by the US.
Even though I’m American, I can understand the Iranians’ position. Why would you negotiate with a country that has ripped up agreements you had previously signed with them, sucker punched you multiple times during negotiations and doesn’t even maintain the pretense of respecting international law?
When it comes to negotiating with the United Terrorists of America, always best to go with the Tommy Lee Jones approach.
Don’t expect too much from hospitals and pharmacies in 4 weeks.
I have tried to inform that there will be shortages and some form of rationing would be rational, but nobody is listening.
Most affected is pharmaceuticals with high turnover and biologicals which is dependent on uninterrupted cold chains including flights.
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/uk-medicine-shortages-middle-east-war-b2942540.html?test_group=lighteradlayout
Thanks for the heads up.
Few are listening and many don’t want to know.
I just upset a friend by informing them about the implications of Trump’s ultimatum. Should have kept my mouth shut.
The denial runs deep. I talked to pharmacist at the local hospital. They had very litle knowledge on the complexity of modern Medicine.
One of the first factories to shut down was a factory who put pharmaceutical in glass ampulles. There was a shortage of propane used to seal the ampulles.
It was not the production of glass that stopped first it was sealing.
A friend in the computer game business sent me this demonstration of new AI video tech we will be seeing soon.
This guy is a retired merchant mariner who understands the nuts and bolts of shipping and how the Strait of Hormuz works.
He’s not CACTUS aware but nevertheless is very concerned that Hormuz has been closed as long as it has because he understands the complexity of restarting operations.
He goes over all of the shipping related events since the US started the war, and points out all the clown show mistakes the US government has made.
He’s very concerned about the 3200 ships and 20,000 mariners stuck in the gulf.
Craig Tindale explains the dire implications for Iran of Trump’s ultimatum.
Iran must be thinking about a pre-emptive strike.
They have no choice.
Time for the 25th amendment.
I’m not a fan of the 25th. What would it accomplish?
Vance, Hegseth, and company will continue doing what they’re doing (or being told to do). The public will lose out on the hilarious sneak peaks we get from trumps ego/twitter obsession.
Okay, it’s true that the white house would get a little less embarrassing and a little more respectability from the rest of the world. Big whoop! We had tons of that during the Obama years and what good did it do? Only made it easier for “them” to push their agendas.
Very good point.
It’s too late now. The time for that was Nov 5, 2024.
Trump is literally unhinged.
Trump issued this post a couple hours before his 48 hour ultimatum.
You may have tried to embed something, but I don’t see anything.
I see it. Might be a mobile bug.
I see the Daniel Davis video, but is there supposed to be an embed in the post under it? BTW, I am accessing this on Desktop.
It’s this image:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HD-FVNLbsAAX8pf?format=jpg&name=medium
Yikes!!!
What was the exact time Trump issued his 48 hour ultimatum for Iran to open Hormuz?
That was 6 hours ago so we’ve got 42 hours left to enjoy modernity.
Except we know Trump likes to deceive his enemies into thinking they have more time, as he did prior to murdering Iran’s religious leader in a sneak attack during negotiations, so we should expect the US to attack Iran sooner than 42 hours from now.
I hope the liquor store is open tomorrow.
It might take a bit longer for the cascade to reach the US and Canada, but still this is terrifying. I really hope Trump chickens out this time.
P.S. In case you have no knowledge of Marandi’s track record, I do, and he calmly told us many times over the year prior to the US attack exactly how Iran would respond, and Iran has done everything he said they would do.
When he says Iran will destroy all of the middle east energy infrastructure in response to an attack on Iran’s critical infrastructure, I believe him.
Is it a war crime to destroy critical civilian infrastructure like power systems?
Funny term and definitions. What a ridiculous creature we are.
There’s no such thing as war crimes if USA is the one doing it.
I’m noticing a new meme emerging.
US incompetence, and the damage it has done to the world, are both so extreme, that the healthiest response is to laugh at the absurdity of our predicament.
Common sense, international law, peer pressure, Christian commandments, good ethics, and self-interested behavior, have ALL FAILED.
Maybe the humiliation of the entire world laughing at the US might restore it to sanity.
Here’s a good essay summarizing this week’s humor. I extracted a few choice excerpts but the essay has much more to laugh at.
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-19-21-god-is-a-comedian
I agree it’s absurd..
“that the healthiest response is to laugh at the absurdity of our predicament.”
So we can sit back and laugh or try our little 0.1% chance or less of saving civilization. I’m going to have a go, but need your help because of current situation, ending tomorrow..
Will it work probably not, but someone has to do something, I’m game…
Hi Rob, ran your post through Grok, at the risk of blunting my synapses (grin). Brought Teilhard de Chardin and Lewis Mumford into the mix. One sentence reminded me of Guy Debord’s ‘Society of the Spectacle.’
“U.S. policy has collapsed into self-contradiction so total and instantaneous that even a single day’s press gaggle reads like a Monty Python sketch scripted by Kafka.”
https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMi1jb3B5_bf7a2669-9ef9-4bb5-bf6f-41ab4eab0691
Very good, thanks. Added to sidebar quotes.
“This is the stupidest apocalypse ever. ”
Check out this thread for many humorous edits to Musk’s image.
An entertaining distraction. The Mothman Prophecies (2002) – IMDb
I had a fun time watching this last night. It’s not gory, and only one or two jump scares. But the director does an excellent job of building and maintaining a very creepy vibe. Highly recommend.
It reminded me of another great movie called Fallen starring Denzel Washington. Might have to watch that one tonight.
Full movie free on yt: The Mothman Prophecies (2002)
I’d stay away from the trailer. Here’s a good scene if you want a preview.
The Mothman Prophecies | Alexander Leek /John Klein conversation scene
I just listened to that Richard Medhurst bit again… Ya, I think I got swept up in the moment last night. Doesn’t sound like he’s saying much when you add CACTUS to the mix.
Here it is if you’re interested, 44:30 – 59:00
I listened to a few minutes and quit. He seems to think US deliberately destroyed middle east oil and gas so US can supply the world instead. Peak oil blind I think.
If there is a hell, Trump has his place guaranteed.
AJ
Where are all the Christians like Greasy Pete that should be objecting to behavior that Jesus would condemn?
I’m an atheist and I know it’s wrong.
If that post from DT is real, it shows he is under stress and looking for a way out, people lash out when they are under pressure and stress. Good let someone offer him a way out..
I have followed Professor Marandi for several years. He is the only English speaking Iran insider voice we have to understand Iran’s position. I find him to be calm and rational.
Who benefits from blocking citizens from understanding the views of an “opponent”?
Here is the most recent interview with Marandi if you want to know what Iran is thinking.
My interpretation is Iran is ready to suffer a lot and is determined to inflict pain on the US until it withdraws from the region.
Just a reminder in case you missed it, this is retaliation for US attacking Iran’s nuclear power plant.
I’m thinking Hideaway owes me more than 1 can of sardines.
Dire indeed, but what did you make of that item in Khamenei’s speech about Russia and China formalizing defense ties and moving from ambiguity to declared nuclear deterrence – where does that work into step 4 above?
Depressing Saturday 🙁
AJ
I don’t know the credibility of Rashid bin Saeed. I suspect he’s overstating things a bit. But it does feel like we are at critical point.
Deep green advocate and author of Bright Green Lies, Max Wilbert, today argues that fast collapse is our best option because the renewable energy transition is not working because it is physically impossible.
Also discussed:
I like Max, he is kinda a neighbor about a 1 hour drive away. I liked his message except what he didn’t say . . . which is that any collapse of industrial civilization will take away about 95% or more of us humans in a very short (6 month) time span. I bet he knows this but it would be too much of a negative for his viewers. I also disagree with his attitude that there is anything meaningful we can do about anything. . . we lack agency! What will come we can’t stop, shape, or argue away. CACTUS is where we are going.
Actually he is a little bit like Nate Hagens but maybe a little more aware of where we are headed.
Thanks for posting this Rob.
AJ
Max definitely knows about population vulnerability and he has discussed about population before too. I think he would be very perceptive to CATUS as well
If this is correct I think ISRAEL/U.S. response might be nukes now and see what Russia & China do in response. Scary times.
AJ
Dr. Malcolm Kendrick today with a deep dive showing that the #1 most prescribed drug in the world, statins, was fraudulently tested.
Pharma used similar tricks to make us believe mRNA is safe and effective.
Dr. Kendrick is one of the few people with the skills and patience necessary to unscramble the data that pharma is expert at manipulating to support their business model.
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2026/03/21/lancet-paper-critique-part-3/
Tim Watkins did not use an AI to write his excellent essay today.
Expect panic to pick up steam next week.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/03/21/a-great-reset-of-sorts/
Wow two excellent essays back to back from Tim Watkins. This one was as close as I have seen to multiple real world examples of Hideaways’ “one little thing” causing a large collapse of complexity (stitches missing in a hospital). The end is neigh.
Carpe Diem
AJ
I really enjoy Tim’s writing – he does a good job tying economics back to the real world and explaining things in everyday language
xraymike79’s essay today has a familiar tone.
What is the probability that this essay was written by an AI?
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2026/03/20/epic-fury-and-the-unraveling-of-the-energy-world-system/
What causes a brilliant overshoot aware intellectual to switch from writing noteworthy original essays to pumping out AI slop poetry and essays without an acknowledgement of what he’s doing?
Are any areas of the world experiencing diesel shortages?
Is there sufficient fertilizer for US farms this year?
Do Canadian farms have sufficient fertilizer for this year?