
Rob here: Over the last 6 years I’ve made many attempts to write a concise summary of what happened and why during covid.
I’m still trying, most recently a reply I wrote to a reader yesterday, which explores dimensions not covered by Jeffrey Tucker’s summary, and which I’ve copied below as an addendum.
In case you’ve never tried to succinctly explain all of the important elements of covid, it is REALLY hard because so many big evil complex things happened.
Given that covid is the biggest crime ever committed, and given that no one has been held to account, it is important that we keep trying to increase awareness, and to break through the ignorance and apathy of most citizens.
None of my attempts to write a summary have been as complete, or compelling, or concise as these fabulous 428 words published today by Jeffrey A. Tucker.
https://brownstone.org/articles/the-big-picture-of-extraordinary-evil-in-428-words
Here is Tucker’s introduction to his summary. Note his invitation to collaborate on creating an even better summary.
Life seemed to be going along pretty normally when the third month of 2020 hit and all our lives, and the lives of billions around the world, were thrown into upheaval. We’ve spent the last six years trying to figure it out and so have many others.
The revelations are flying fast and furious, so much that we can hardly keep up. We have meetings, groups, publications, phone calls, and share as many links and data points as we can. No matter what we do, the big story continues to be elusive.
There are two reasons for this. First, the national media does not care. It happened. It’s over. We survived. Who cares? Second, the reality is literally incomprehensible. Too many data points. Too many institutions. Too many motivations. They all flew into motion at once. Separating prime from second movers is impossible.
Those who try to make sense of it all come across like conspiracy theorists at best and babbling lunatics at worst. I don’t like to sound this way. But every time I try to present what I know in a calm, rational, wholly reasonable way, I sense that I’m not capturing the fullness of it all.
What I’ve attempted below is my best undertaking at reconstruction. It has no links so I invite you to use the AI tool on this website that has been trained by 4,000-plus site records and countless numbers of outside links.
If it sounds implausible, I can only assure you that it is not. You might know more than I do and could write something better. If so, drop me an email and we might publish a compendium. The goal is short (no longer than 500 words), evocative, comprehensive, no exaggerations, and verifiably accurate.
Here is my own attempt.
The Big Picture of Extraordinary Evil in 428 Words
In 2019 or before, a US-funded biolab in Wuhan, China, one of some 120 in 30 countries, made a virus and inoculation based on an American recipe that leaked and spread, causing worry that US/UK officials would be blamed. They formulated a well-rehearsed fallback: lie about the lab origins and prepare the population for the antidote based on a new gene-editing technology that otherwise would never have been approved on grounds that it was too dangerous and not effective. That scheme could turn would-be villains into saviors.
That required buying time while preserving pre-leak immunity profiles of the population via lockdowns for nine months until the injection was put through perfunctory trials and available; hence the travel restrictions, stay-at-home orders, masks, distancing, and canceled events.
During this time there had to be mass censorship of people who caught on, a manufactured panic, widespread trauma, school closures, a removal of other therapeutic options, millions of business failures, a shutdown of the arts and religious practice, plus various technical manipulations along the way like redefining exposures as cases, running PCR tests at high cycle rates, and paying for death misclassifications. This was essentially cosplaying a level of severity that did not exist – despite inevitably rising seroprevalence and natural immunity – in order to ramp up demand for the incoming pharmaceutical product.
There was also a political coattail rider: infectious disease panic enabled a new experiment in mail-in ballots, encouraged by the CDC even before the lockdowns began, thus unleashing mass ballot fraud designed to defeat the rise of populism in all countries and creating conditions for closer citizen surveillance and digital identification systems necessitating mass data centers.
The scheme also required a printing/spending binge to paper over vast economic damage, policies that would hack off a third of the value of the dollar, leaving vast carnage, but permitting an indemnified pharmaceutical experiment on the whole population, meaning that mass injury would have no recourse in law. When the shot finally appeared, uptake was too low to create the expected profit windfall, plus government had a surplus it needed to dump before expiration, thus triggering urban segregation in five major US cities plus mandates for millions enforced on pain of losing their jobs.
The entire time, most of academia, corporate America, and major media played along for reasons of careerism and also overt and implicit threats from Deep-State actors to do their part lest they prolong the pandemic they created. No one has been punished for any of it, and the mainstream media has no interest at this late date.
Addendum I – Rob’s latest summary
A reader yesterday asked me to comment on the efficacy and safety of mRNA transfections, and on the trustworthiness of public health institutions.
This was my reply:
You’re over the bullseye Bob.
Another important issue is the source of the virus, but that’s so obvious now it’s not worth discussing. It’s still an open question whether the lab leak was accidental or deliberate, but I lean accidental.
I spent WAY too much time during covid trying to figure out what was going on and most importantly WHY. As my confidence grew in understanding the science and evidence, my anger also grew.
I remain very angry about what happened, and that most citizens don’t want to know, and that no one has been held to account, and that no lessons have been learned.
Rather than providing you with many links to complicated rabbit holes I’m going to share with you what I have distilled the key issues to think about are.
- mRNA is a new unproven complex technology.
- mRNA technology has nothing in common with the vaccine technologies we grew up with and trust(ed). They called mRNA a vaccine to deliberately mislead us. I call it a “transfection”, or if you prefer, a gene therapy.
- Several attempts prior to covid were made to commercialize mRNA. All failed the safety and effectiveness tests. That should have been a huge red flag for anyone with integrity thinking about injecting it into billions of people after extremely abbreviated testing.
- Given the short time frame, a competent person with integrity would have preferred a lower risk vaccine using conventional technologies like China and Russia used.
- A new vaccine using proven technologies takes about 10 years to properly test and scale up. They developed and tested a novel mRNA technology for covid, that had failed every prior attempt, in about 1 year, and then assured us it was safe and effective, before coercing it into billions of people, including pregnant mothers and children that were never even tested.
- It was physically impossible for them to have known if the covid mRNA was safe and effective, which means they rolled the dice and lied.
- If you review the little testing that was done you will find that it was statistically insignificant, and they had to perform fraudulent commonly used tricks on the data to make it appear more effective than it was.
- If you think back on the messaging from our leaders, they were singularly obsessed with transfecting every citizen, young and old, at risk or not, with mRNA. Why?
- There was no discussion of prevention, or alternate treatments. For example, Vitamin D is super safe and cheap, and was known to reduce risk, yet they were silent on it. For example, Ivermectin is a noble prize winning drug known to be effective treating RNA viruses, and is super safe and cheap, yet they ruined people’s careers for even discussing it.
- mRNA was known very early on to not stop covid transmission, and they never even tested for this property. Why then would a person with integrity push a new technology with side-effect risks into young healthy people who were not at risk from the virus?
- There are simple to understand reasons to expect harmful side effects from mRNA.
- How does mRNA work?
- mRNA causes cells to produce non-self proteins that stimulate the immune system to create antibodies that are (hopefully) effective against the virus. Questions you should ask are : 1) What cells in the body are affected? Just the muscles at the injection site? Heart? Brain? Arteries? 2) How long do the cells produce the non-self protein? 3) How much non-self protein is produced? (i.e. what is the dose?)
- They told us mRNA would remain local to the injection site. That was proven to be untrue. mRNA went everywhere in the body.
- They told us mRNA was only active for a few days. That was proven to be untrue. I saw one study that proved it was still active after 60 days and then they stopped the study.
- They did not have good control on the manufacturing process and dose, at least in the early days. Hot harmful batches are known to exist.
- Think about the effect of cells producing non-self proteins, for indeterminate time, at indeterminate doses, in all organs of the body, including organs like the heart and brain, that do not readily repair the damage of cells being killed by the immune system because they appear to be non-self cells. You would expect to see what we saw, with young healthy people dying unexpectedly from heart related problems, and an increase in stroke frequency.
- Think about the effect of an immune system being persistently over stimulated against one threat. You would expect to see what we saw, and still see, which is an increase in many other diseases like cancer.
- Determining the causes of changes to health trends is tricky business. Especially when there’s a novel virus, plus novel interventions, plus lifestyle changes that occur during a pandemic. Nevertheless, healthcare professionals with integrity and competence would be vigilant, and would collect and analyze the data necessary to understand what it going on, and would take corrective action when signals appeared. Our “professionals” did none of this. In fact they aggressively denied all evidence that might have cast a bad light on their policies. If you were paying attention, it was obscene. (See more on this below in Addendum II.)
- The most reliable data for detecting a problem is all-cause mortality. The data can’t be screwed up. You are either dead or alive. When you transfect billions of people with a novel technology to protect them from a deadly disease that you claim is killing them, a person with integrity would monitor all-cause mortality. If all-cause mortality goes down when transfections begin, that’s good. If it goes up, that’s bad. It’s easy to collect and analyze yet very few countries reported on all-cause mortality. UK was one of the few that did and they stopped as soon as the data started to make their mRNA policies look bad.
- There were many obvious signals like VAERS (vaccine adverse events), and morticians reporting unusual clots, and athletes dropping dead on TV, that indicated possible problems. They ignored them all. No attempt was made to investigate and adjust policies to reflect the safety and effectiveness data, nor the reduced threat from later virus variants.
- I could continue writing for many more hours and still not present all the evidence that condemns our “leaders”. I’m going to stop now, because it’s not good for my mental health.
Addendum II – By Senator Ron Johnson: The story the media — and the government — don’t want you to hear
No one has been held to account for:
- engineering a virus that directly and indirectly killed 20+ million
- fomenting panic about a modest threat
- coercing unsafe and ineffective mRNA transfections into people that did not need protection, like children
- blocking other safe and effective responses
- and as follows, ignoring clear safety signals
One hero in the battle for covid accountability and justice is US Senator Ron Johnson.
On April 29, 2026, as Chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, I held a hearing and released a report titled “Unmasked: How Biden Health Officials Purposely Turned a Blind Eye Toward COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Signals.” There has not been a bigger government scandal during my lifetime, and yet even now that we have documented proof of corruption, most of the legacy media refuses to report on it.
My report details how in March 2021, Peter Marks — director of the FDA center that approves vaccines and is responsible for safety surveillance (CBER) — was briefed that the algorithm they were using to analyze the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) would mask or hide COVID-19 vaccine adverse event safety signals. Twenty-six days later, using an updated algorithm, senior FDA officials were shown 25 safety signals, including sudden cardiac death, pulmonary infarction, cerebral artery occlusion, basal ganglia stroke, agonal rhythm, and Bell’s palsy.
For the next three months, they received updates showing more serious safety signals. Instead of warning or informing the public, they ordered the data analyst to “cease and desist” and then lied to the American public that “they weren’t seeing safety signals” and that any adverse events were “rare and mild.” The whole point of using sophisticated algorithms to analyze VAERS is to find needles in the haystack — nonobvious potential harms that doctors and patients should be alerted to.
With the COVID-19 injections, we didn’t need sophisticated algorithms. The sheer volume of adverse event reports overwhelming VAERS was enough to trigger my oversight efforts. We faced impenetrable stonewalling until Secretary Kennedy’s commitment to radical transparency provided my Subcommittee with 11 million pages of documents. The documents make clear that FDA and CDC officials did not use an “err on the side of caution” standard to alert the public. Rather, they insisted on definitive proof of causation — a standard they knew would never be met.
They were far more concerned about not causing vaccine hesitancy than they were about informing the public of adverse events. They wanted to ensure that the injections would receive full licensure approval so that President Biden could mandate them to the military and millions of civilians, including healthy college students.
Perhaps the most egregious coercion involved healthy children who had virtually zero chance of serious harm from COVID-19. That coercion was based on another false claim that the injections would stop transmission. Some children were killed and others have been permanently disabled from the COVID-19 injections. Imagine being the parent who believed all the lies they were told and decided to have their now deceased or injured child injected.
Also in March 2021, Dr. Avindra Nath, clinical director at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS), began leading a team of clinical researchers who were diagnosing and treating individuals with serious COVID-19 injection injuries. Twenty-three study participants were diagnosed and treated, then instructed to “not talk about the study” until the NIH could release its findings and conclusions. Dr. Nath maintained that early recognition and intervention were crucial for effective treatment. Yet no guidance was provided to physicians — one participant remarked that the NIH scientists had “taken the data and left us hanging.”
Adding insult to injury, in April 2021 the CDC published a report stating that similar adverse events were “anxiety” — not a problem with the shots. It was not until study participants began speaking publicly in 2022 that the NIH quietly posted its study on a preprint server that virtually no one read, leaving medical teams nationwide in the dark and the injection-injured left untreated.
We will never know the full extent of the harms (or the benefits) of the COVID-19 injections. But we do know that federal health officials were aware that serious harm was being done within months of them granting Emergency Use Authorization. We also know that those same officials turned a blind eye toward the safety signals that were screaming at them, but they refused to warn the public. The public pays federal health officials to evaluate drugs for safety and efficacy, and we have the right to be informed.
How many deaths and injuries could have been avoided had federal health officials simply done the job we paid them to do?
Currently, VAERS shows 1,676,100 cumulative worldwide adverse events and 39,099 deaths associated with the COVID-19 injection, with 9,332 (24%) of the deaths occurring within 2 days of injection. Most of these tragic adverse events occurred well after federal health officials should have informed the public about the risks they knew existed. Instead, they hid or downplayed those risks. As a result, millions were harmed after being denied their right to fully informed consent.
That’s why I consider this to be the biggest government scandal in my lifetime, and one that is crying out for full media attention and coverage.
Study: 97% of Children Ages 3-17 Have Microplastic Debris in Their Bodies
https://hrnews1.substack.com/p/study-97-of-children-ages-3-17-have
https://phys.org/news/2026-07-nanoplastics-antarctic-soils-range-atmospheric.html
Microplastics have been found even in the most remote regions of the planet. There is no where you can go to escape.
Based on purely personal experiences on X and real life encounters, I think what triggers MORT the most in almost every instance of homo sapiens intellectually capable of understanding the matter is this:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03453-1
0.5% of an aged, adult brain are microplastic by mass (that’s the median, 50% of all samples were above that, the highest data point sits at a ludicrous 5%, and everyone above 1% had dementia without exception; the median seems to be rising by 50% per decade given current trends)
There are more studies that prove that microplastics indeed bypass the blood-brain barrier in mammals (see Zhang et al’s publications on the matter – you can directly measure this by creating radioactive plastic particles of sufficiently small size and then checking the radiation coming from the brain of the contaminated organism, such as a rat), so the only serious question remaining is what the numbers are, exactly – and how it looks like in the brains of younger humans (yes, you need dead babies for this so you can extract brain tissue – freshly aborted and donated fetuses would be ideal, together with a comprehensive documentation of the lifestyle of the mother)
The fact that we as a species are not monitoring this like crazy with an army of biochemists and neuroscientists screams MORT.
Addendum:
Look at Figure 1d. Look at the data points. It’s a genuine measurement that was checked multiple times & published in a highly respectable journal.
It’s too bad Dr. Varki hasn’t commented on this, a part of me really wonders what his own reaction would be.
Amazing. The Iranian LEGO crew is calling on the Ted Kaczynski’s of the world to seek revenge on the US.
More compelling evidence that mRNA transfections caused serious brain damage.
Read the exact words spoken and then attempt to find any explanation other than brain damage.
https://twitter.com/DA_Stockman/status/2075180071933886606https://twitter.com/DA_Stockman/status/2075180071933886606
The aliens are watching and having the laugh of their lifetimes.
Speaking truth ends careers of politicians.
Drain it! I want to see if MORT ramps up or down in response!
Excellent discussion on the importance of putting yourself in the other’s shoes.
Imagine how Americans would react if Iran did to the US what the US did to Iran.
Now you know how Iranians feel and how they will respond.
From a J. Doe post below :
I have NEVER seen anyone else banging the following point (like a demented monkey) :
Carbon is emitted when money is earned, practically without exception.
Carbon is emitted when money is spent, practically without exception.
Buying a ‘green’ electric vehicle, or organic food, or anything, is never environmentally friendly.
NB. Saving, taxes and ‘not-earning’ make no difference.
We are fucked. Totally fucked. Catastrophically fucked.
We are absolutely, totally fucking fucked to fuckery!
To be fair, the 2nd law says that every complex system in the whole universe is absofuckelutely fucked.
As J.Doe said, it’s going to happen to every complex system in the universe, but I’d add that the larger and more complex any system the faster it collapses, whereas the smallest systems have been able to linger for a long time. They are the closest to “degrowth”.
How does our civilization compare to all other prior ones for comparison? Is it nice and small? Ohh… We are totally, catastrophically, quickly fucked…
The only real question is when?
It’s always when, never if. But humans don’t have the balls to accurately and diligently calculate when their time is up. Ask yourself: if you could with 100% accuracy know in advance how you die, when you die, and how it is completely unavoidable, would you want to know? I know I would, I like to be able to plan ahead, but I think I might be in a minority there.
Addendum:
My AI says that my guess is on point:
Click to access rev-rev0000055.pdf
“We conduct the first representative nationwide studies to estimate the prevalence and predictability
of deliberate ignorance for a sample of 10 events. Its prevalence is high: Between 85% and 90% of people
would not want to know about upcoming negative events”
Hello, MORT!
“Prevalence in the general public. We first report the results
for the five negative events, and then for the five positive ones.
Negative events. For each of the events, we first list the exact
wording of the questions (translated into English), the percentage
of people who do not want to know the answer, and, in parenthe-
ses, further information.
Would you want to know today when your partner will die?
No: 89.5%. (Uncertain: 6.5%; Yes: 4.0%; N 992)
Would you want to know today from what cause your partner will die?
No: 90.4%. (Uncertain: 5.0%; Yes: 4.5%; N 989)
Would you want to know today when you will die?
No: 87.7%. (Uncertain: 8.2%; Yes: 4.2%; N 1,002)
Would you want to know today from what cause you will die?
No: 87.3%. (Uncertain: 6.4%; Yes: 6.3%; N 1,001)
Assume you are newly married. Would you want to know today
whether your marriage will eventually end in divorce or not?
No: 86.5%. (Yes: 13.5%; N 991)
I would pick yes to all the above.
Addendum:
I would not be at all surprised if the people who choose “No” to the above would try to avoid people who choose “Yes” like the plague. Seems to indicate rather incompatible personality structures. One wants to feel good, the other wants to know truth.
Personally, I don’t think I would want anyone from team “No” in my social circle.
Addendum:
The perfect video game to match this subject:
I’d answer yes to all the questions, but before then my mind has kicked in telling me this is like a time machine that we know is impossible.
Now if we knew when any of those events would happen, we’d likely change what we do, even if it’s ‘prepare’.
Wouldn’t the change then change the outcome??
What if the answer was your going to die on June 10 2034 in a plane crash over New York. Wouldn’t you avoid flying in a plane over NY on that day??
This is the belief in magic kicking in with the impossible just thinking about it.
Oedipus
That would depend on the details – if the answer is that you will die of old age because you will exhaust your genetic limits, then you cannot do anything about it.
Same if you have a genetically hardwired terminal disease with no cure available.
So the question would be if the answer you get is a preventable outcome (Around 33% of all humans globally die of non-preventable causes ; 50% of all deaths are due to lifestyle choices people generally are not very willing to change even when they are fully educated that they are bad for their health like alcohol abuse, smoking, overeating etc.)
But generally, yes, we would have to accept an at least partially questionable premise as an axiom when answering these.
Addendum:
I can’t help but think of the example of some yeast in a petri dish. Obviously, yeast does not have a brain, probably no consciousness, and no capability of exerting control over its behaviour. Assuming it did, though:
Its environment is finite and confined: the petri dish.
Its energy source is finite and non-renewable: the nutrient solution.
Based on the appetite of a single cell, and its replication protocols, it is possible to exactly calculate when the nutrient solution is gone and the system inevitably expires.
The yeast, assuming it had some level of awareness and control, could decide: replicate as fast as possible and burn the solution in as little time as feasible – or not replicate at all and just exist until something else makes it expire.
If the yeast now asked how it will die, and the answer was: you will starve because you will use up your nutrient solution, would this cause the yeast to choose to restrict its own behaviour? In case of humans, the answer appears to be a clear “Nope!” (Hello, MORT).
«Russia bans diesel exports to ensure domestic supply after targeted Ukrainian drone strikes»
Hmm…..
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-diesel-exports-increase-domestic-supply-says-deputy-pm-2026-07-08/
What’s it gonna be?
Swallow my pride or nuke’m?
Says the toddler with a defective frontal lobe.
A nuke would be the perfect stress test for MORT. Does actual nuclear war lead to less or more denial? That’s a hypothesis worth testing!
Robert Barnes is not overshoot aware but he is by far the best geopolitical analyst on the interwebs circuit today.
So my country is effectively being run by an 80 year old toddler. That is so disturbing, but it explains alot. The timestamp for the toddler brain is roughly 13 minutes into the video.
Whatever the supposed degeneration of the elderly Trump, this surely ignores the most obvious fact of all: that the President does not, at any time, devise US state policy.
I would be very surprised indeed if he wrote any of his tweets either, however uncouth, illogical or mendacious.
Shall we assume dementia in the Pentagon, too?
A senile, narcissistic, President for whom anything goes is certainly a very good cover for those truly in charge to hide behind. And the perfect fall-guy.
Yes, beneath the demented toddler is a deep state that understands peak oil, the debt bubble, and the implications of increasing trade in non-USD.
https://indi.ca/a-tale-of-two-funerals-irans-and-americas/
https://climatecasino.substack.com/p/some-monsters-are-real
If you play with fire, you risk getting burned. Unfortunately, humans are very emotionally attached to playing with fire.
You’d think that if people are prioritizing their global adventures then consumption of something else must be falling off the table.
A lot of people require cars to get to work in order to get money to buy everything else. So even if the price of fuel rises, they still have to buy it, because it’s a prerequisite to get everything else.
It’s possible that travelling has a similar role, but in a less monetary sense. I’ve met a lot of young people who saw frequent travelling as a symbol of being open-minded, actively engaged with the world and possibly even as a sort of mating ritual (if you have ever been on an online dating site, you can perhaps relate – a person who is moving around the planet a lot might seem more interesting than a person who does not, so this can serve as a way to secure a romantic partner by being more interesting than the competition).
Maybe I am wrong here, but it may be a possible explanation why the response to rising fuel prices looks the way it looks like.
Addendum:
I just asked my AI. Some paragraphs:
“Multiple mating preference studies track how profiles are evaluated on dating apps. Across platforms like Tinder and Hinge, “travel” consistently ranks as one of the top interests that increases profile engagement and match rates.”
“Since high-status material markers (like owning a house) have become unaffordable or less appealing to Gen Z, status has shifted to identity expression. Showing off a unique destination signals open-mindedness and cultural capital far more effectively than traditional status symbols.”
“Because traveling requires physical health, high financial resources, and free time, it serves as an “honest signal” of high genetic and socioeconomic fitness. It is difficult to fake, making the traveler look like a highly resourceful and adaptable partner.”
“High flight prices operate less like a standard product price increase and more like a social tax. Consumers are willing to pay inflated fares because traveling acts as a critical prerequisite for social identity, dating pool competitiveness, and peer group belonging.”
Unless you desire a partner with ethics and awareness in which case you’d prefer someone who goes camping close to home.
If that was a majority mindset, the planet would not be experiencing ~4 sigma events!
“A Journal of Sustainable Tourism study tracking voluntary flight reductions found that the overwhelming majority of consumers treat holiday air travel as completely insulated from their moral worldview. Convenience, social connection, and lifestyle preservation routinely beat out abstract planetary concern at checkout.”
“Sociological research in tourism shows that among highly educated, urban populations (the exact demographic most concerned with climate change), global mobility has been reframed from a luxury item into an absolute right and human necessity.”
The “green” people close to me travel long distance a LOT more than “non-green” people.
But the greens make up for this by putting their recyclable trash in the correct bin.
There is a lot of science backing that up, yes. Sociologists refer to this as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value-action_gap ,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtue_signalling
and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-licensing (this most closely fits your last paragraph)
My country’s own environmental agency comes to the same result, too.
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/higher-income-earners-usually-have-higher-climate
“People with higher incomes usually consume more energy and resources – regardless of whether they perceive themselves to be environmentally aware or not. These are the findings of a new study by the German Environment Agency (UBA). UBA’s President Maria Krautzberger said: “The surplus income is all too often spent on large cars, larger homes and more frequent air travel, even despite otherwise environmentally conscious behaviour. But it is precisely these ‘big points’ which have the biggest human carbon footprint. The purchase of organic foods or a high level of waste separation do not offset this.””
In short:
Classic mind over reality. Hello, MORT!
There might also be a factor of:
‘If we can go on vacation several times a year, than all is still well with the world and it’s not all going to Hell’?
Lots of factors!
One of my favourite ones in my anthropological collection:
https://bureauoflinguisticalreality.com/portfolio/morbique/
“Mor·bi·que, Adjective
Definition:
1. The morbid desire to travel to places to experience them before they are radically altered by climate change or other manmade changes. The morbidity of this desire or action is often exacerbated by the fact that the mode of transport required to reach these places often burns fossil fuels, thereby accelerating the destruction of the very place one desires to visit. (…)”
US is agreement incapable.
Think about the implications of this fact.
I harvested a couple kilograms of blackcurrant leaves today and loaded up the dehydrator I built for a test run at making tea.
One pleasant surprise so far is that the dehumidifier puts out enough heat to hold the target 35C without much help from the monster ceiling heater which means operating cost should be reasonable at around 1100 watts most of the time.
Ahh the things you don’t know. Black Currant leaf tea. We never made tea from the leaves, we only used the berries. I see there is quercetin in it. Seems to loose its Vit C with a lot of heat. Is there a way around this?
I don’t know. Will do some reading. We kept the heat modest at 30-35C.
The tea is apparently very good but I have not tried it yet. We’re trying to find a way to generate more revenue from the same crop with a product that will be unique at the farmer’s market.
have you looked into growing St Johns Wort? It is a weed, but very profitable flowers.
I am jealous of the dehydrator. I really want one
I haven’t but I’d bet the brains of the farm I help knows about St. Johns Wort. I’ll ask her.
My test batch of blackcurrant tea was dry enough after about 20 hours but we let it run another couple hours.
I calculated the energy cost for running the system for 22 hours @ 1100 watts total is about $3.60.
We taste tested the tea and we all think it’s excellent. AI tells me if we harvest the leaves before the berries are ripe next year the flavor will be even better.
It also protects against evil spirits. Whether you believe in that or not…..
The stars are aligning…
I am so winning my 0.01 USD bet that the USA will assassinate the current leader of Iran via drone strike!!
I hate giving a thumbs up to this post as it feels like I am ok with Trump saying stupid crap like this. He is the worst president the U.S. has ever had and makes individuals like Bush 2, Clinton and Biden seem like paragons of intelligence and honesty rather than the evil persons they were.
My thumbs up only means I appreciate your post.
AJ
My thumbs down means I wish what you said was not true. 🙂
My thumbs down means that Trump has yet to use some nukes and pardon a war criminal such as Shiro Ishii like Truman!
Yeah, but he has abetted the GENOCIDE in Gaza which is not small thing. Admittedly Truman was a terrible president.
Ishii has committed genocide in China and Truman didn’t seem to have a problem with it – he ultimately had to sign off the deal.
Worse, the Truman administration WANTED Ishii’s human experiment data gained through rape, child abuse, murder, torture, mutilation, pretty much every crime imaginable.
If Trump officially pardoned Epstein and gave him a medal, then I would call things even.
CACTUS questions for the group to ponder:
1) Higher oils prices enable unproductive oil to be produced. But is this not just taking surplus energy from a high-EROI well and putting into a low-EROI well? Our currencies are a proxy for surplus energy.
2) As our society is “progressing”, more jobs and industries need more technology and energy to function – this means the surplus energy needed is increasing. So, the EROI to sustain modern society is increasing every year. Not staying at 10:1 as proposed by others. This would accelerate us getting to the end point (another cactus loop).
3) Is real GDP the best measure of realised energy surplus? And is ‘currency cost’ the best measure of anticipated energy surplus cost?
4) I have been thinking about how to model ‘realised surplus energy’ against inflation. Would real GDP be a good measure for this? See my crappy attempt at a graph.
5) Could I use USA dollars for modelling, instead of global figures? I don’t know if a global average rate of inflation would be very accurate or useful.
I changed your bullets to numbers to make it easier for people to respond to those questions they have an opinion on.
1) Oil prices rising relative to other goods and services prices means falling EROI, which means falling surplus wealth available for everything in the economy that is not energy, which means less growth, then contraction, then collapse.
Oil prices rising along with other goods and services prices means governments are printing money to fund their unaffordable deficits, which are needed to force some growth in the economy and money supply, to avoid monetary system collapse, which is associated with but different than a CACTUS collapse, which is caused by depletion and falling non-renewable resource reserve qualities.
2) I think you may have this one wrong. In his last essay Hideaway explained that one of the reasons we need growth is because increasing scale creates efficiencies necessary to compensate for falling EROI. In addition, to compensate for falling reserve quality we need increased extraction technology complexity, which requires a growing population. This dynamic unpins the point I made when attempting to summarize CACTUS that “increasing civilization scale BOTH enables and requires non-renewable resource flows to increase”.
3-5) I need to let this cook a bit first. My initial reaction is to be very careful when discussing inflation. Prices can go up because there’s less stuff available to buy, or because the quantity of money is increasing faster than the quantity of stuff.
Thanks rob, but I can’t see the numbers. I’ll see if I can fix it
Sorry my error, I’ll fix it.
Personally, I take GDP figures with many grains of salt. There seems to be an incentive for nations to overreport their economic activity (it’s easier to get people to invest in you if you look more productive than you actually are), which is especially feasible for more authoritarian nations.
One way this can be checked empirically is to take satellites and look at how much light a country radiates into space – there is a strong correlation with that and GDP; certainly not a perfect measure, but it gives you an idea if people are being honest about their own numbers:
https://qz.com/1277011/satellite-images-reveal-which-countries-cheat-on-their-economic-statistics
I try to not use monetary units as much as is feasible and heavily prefer biophysical data (which of course can be fudged, too, and you can’t conduct the measurements yourself to really be certain) – GDP ultimately represents goods and services, which both require stuff (goods are made from matter, and services require goods made from matter – even a prostitute cannot offer her immaterial service competitively without makeup, perfume, showers, towels, beds, the whole shebang; so the entire service sector still sits on physical production).
One thing I like to look at is actual global resource extraction (compared to global GDP, for the sake of completeness):
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y
This graph is from the Nature paper I linked above.
Since resource quality (ore grades, for instance) constantly decreases because, naturally, the most easily accessible, high yield deposits are extracted first, energy cost of extraction constantly increases (if you exhaust your 2% copper ore and now must go for 0.5% deposits, you have to mine and refine four times as much stuff just to maintain current production levels; that does not account for any overburden that first has to be moved out of the way); without an increase in efficiency, you would have to throw ever more energy at the problem, constantly taking away an ever-larger chunk of it from the rest of society. You can play that game for a while, but efficiency cannot be increased to infinity (hello, law of Carnot and friends) while concentrations can drop ever lower. At some point, that game breaks your neck. Question is when.
If you are interested in the mathematics of it, this is quite interesting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comminution
A linear decrease in ore grade comes with a non-linear increase in energy required to process it.
Fun thought experiment:
~5% of global electricity use appear to be allocated to grinding rocks
If we assume that a halving of ore grade comes with quadruppling of of energy required for grinding, then…
First halving from now: 20% of current electricity use just to maintain current levels of production
Second halving: 80%
Third halving: 320%
Fourth halving: 1280%
…
Yes, this gets ridiculous very fast. Did anyone ever seriously crunch these numbers?
I suspect that CACTUS occurs somewhere between the first and second halving. I strongly doubt that you can sustain modernity with 80% of available electricity being used grinding rocks.
It’s a question of whether global total electricity can keep pace – if it can quadrupple at the same speed, then the fraction doesn’t change, relatively.
We also would need to know how fast ore concentrations half.
Addendum:
AI on copper:
“Copper provides the clearest example of rapid modern decline. S&P Global reports that global copper feed grades fell from roughly 1.5% in 2010 to around 0.6% in 2025. This represents a halving time of just under 15 years. Looked at over a longer horizon, global copper grades collapsed by nearly 75% over the course of a century (from a peak of ~4% down to ~1%)”
But to put things into perspective, copper ore so far only seems to account for a couple of percentage points of total global annual mining activity. The vast majority (over 80%) seem to be iron, aluminum and phosphate rocks.
Halving times for those three are a lot slower (currently centuries).
On the other hand, iron and aluminum sit at very high concentrations which require very little crushing – AI suggests that 90% of the 5% of global electricity used for crushing goes into the refinement of the low grade ores instead, so those would be the main driver of it.
Given that we are already hitting limits to fossil fuel extraction, and “renewables” are unable to replace fossil fuels, I don’t think we can keep up with that rising amount of electricity.
Very interesting. Hideaway knows quite a bit about mineral processing and has discussed the energy required for crushing but I don’t recall him mentioning this scale of electricity use.
This is something we would need precise numbers on if we wanted to feed a model with it. I just took some estimates from AI and didn’t double-check yet, so the math might be incorrect (but the AI tells me it’s about the right order of magnitude).
J. Doe …”This is something we would need precise numbers on if we wanted to …“
That’s precisely why there are no precise numbers on any of it. All the research on energy use in mining uses strict boundaries of what they define as ‘energy use’ and are mostly as useless as all the EROEI studies on energy with strict narrow boundaries, leaving out most of the actual energy used.
See bigger post to Monk not yet formulated.
Same old song!
Hi Monk, huge questions I’ve been contemplating so sorry to take so long to get back to you.
Firstly it’s not a crappy attempt at a graph at all, it’s very meaningful, except there are probably no straight lines, just like how none occur in nature. Also somewhere in the entire equation of total energy use, EROEI and prosperity lies ‘efficiency gains’, which is more an ‘S’ curve over time, with efficiency gains accelerating with small increases in complexity and now diminishing with large increases of complexity, because we are getting closer to so many physical limits of efficiency gains..
Point 1. Higher oils prices enable unproductive oil to be produced.
What is “unproductive oil”? Just because it’s lower EROEI, doesn’t mean it’s unproductive. If we took 50:1 EROEI oil and used 10 units of that oil to produce 5:1 EROEI oil we still have more net energy for the rest of civilization.
Mathematically we had 49 units of oil after allowing for the cost of ‘1’ unit from just the high grade oil, but extended to the ‘newer’ low grade we now have 39 units from the high grade (used up 10 in low grade), but received another 50 units of oil overall. Civilization now has 89 units overall to use for the rest of civilization.
The total energy available and growing counts. Turning those ratios into millions of bbls of oil for a minute, then at some previous time we were getting 50Mbbls/d at a cost of 1Mbbls/d, whereas later we are getting 100Mbbls/d for a cost of 11Mbbls/d, but overall for the rest of civilization we now have a ‘surplus’ of 89Mbbls/d instead of 49Mbbls/d previously.
Then add in technical innovation and efficiency gains on top and we are much better off, except for the not so minor detail of existing on a finite planet, so the high EROEI deteriorates over time. We still have some high EROEI oil.
Of course after trying to simplify it, none of it is that simple at all, as the oil doesn’t operate in a vacuum of just oil. We require coal and gas (and possibly other energy sources) all operating as per normal the entire time. The EROEI of coal and gas has changed because of the technical innovation and efficiency gains allowing newer more remote resources to be opened up and more easily obtained, so this affects the overall EROEI.
The EROEI of energy collection is not and never can be stable over time. All the technical innovation and efficiency gains have hidden the reality of declining grades of every resource we use to just maintain the system of civilization and the growth in both material and energy use to do so.
Fast forward to some point in the future to look at the math of the oil collection. We’d require say 133Mbbls/d, but only have 3:1 oil left having used up all the high EROEI oil. We would require to be gathering 200Mbbls/d using 66Mbbls/d (3:1) to be gaining net energy for the rest of civilization. Again not that simple as realistically we will still have some 20:1 EROEI oil, 19:1 oil, 18:1 …….. 2:1 oil EROEI..
“ Our currencies are a proxy for surplus energy.“
I think it’s more our currencies are a proxy for energy, not just surplus energy. We can see this in how the low/lower EROEI energy is nowhere near as profitable for the producers as high EROEI energy. This applies across oil, gas, coal, nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, firewood and every other energy type you can think of.
My take is that if it’s profitable to produce, without economic subsidies of any type, in a fully free market, then it’s a net addition to civilization’s energy use.
OK, sort of covered point 1, but it’s not in isolation to the other points, which I’ll get to later…
Hi Monk point 2 … “So, the EROI to sustain modern society is increasing every year. Not staying at 10:1 as proposed by others. This would accelerate us getting to the end point (another cactus loop).“
This is where the pieces all start fitting together. On average the EROEI has to be increasing, which it was due to technology and efficiency gains, on top of ‘more’ extracted.
Going back to the late 1960’s we probably had our highest level EROEI due to technology making more high grade oil deposits available. Even back then we ‘knew of’ lower EROEI oil, like Alaska, North Sea, but they were economically unviable lower EROEI (but not negative EROEI). Curbs on production made oil prices higher and those types of deposits economically viable, while lowering the overall EROEI a bit, but increasing overall production, meaning more ‘net oil’ for the rest of civilization.
Meanwhile grades of all ore types of materials is on average falling every year, plus getting more remote, plus deeper in the ground and having a harder ore index, along with smaller grind size as well as the average particle size of metals we want gets smaller in lower grade deposits. It’s taking more energy and more materials, in the way of finished goods to gain access to the same quantity of minerals and metals each year.
Yet we require more each year, so that just adds another layer. However if we go back decades we kept finding good high grade deposits, so when they were developed, they could be brought on more cheaply, which is the mining equivalent of raising EROEI. (by finding high grade close to surface deposits).
Mineral and metal discoveries have gone the same way as oil and gas discoveries, we’ve searched the globe and found all the best near surface deposits, so it’s lower grade from here on out. Back in the 1970’s- 2000’s better technology allowed for greater searches, better understanding of the geology, more drilling in more remote areas, so we found lots of giant high grade resources, then started mining the best high grade parts of these deposits. Sure there will be further discoveries, but on average we’ve found the best high grade easy resources..
Civilization itself looks like a long term sustainable system because of all the newer discoveries over the decades, by increasing technology to find them, while other increasing technology has helped increase efficiency gains, so original high EROEI of civilization gained EROEI by better discoveries and further technological and efficiency gains. In 40 years we went from 30-40Tonne mining dump trucks to 350-400Tonne dump trucks that used fuel more efficiently. The gain is less truck drivers and 40%+ savings on fuel use. Likewise throughout our system of resource collecting and all the businesses that supply the resource gathering businesses.
However the number of parts in these large machines is probably an order of magnitude higher than in those from decades ago that were simpler mechanical machines. Now every vehicle and process in a mine has a myriad of electronic parts. A large low grade mine of today would possibly have 2 orders of magnitude more separate parts than the mine that had the same output of something like copper, 6 decades ago. Plus the weight of all the parts would be much greater than 6 decades ago. The efficiency gains have offset some of the declining ‘effective’ EROEI of mines, but the grade, distance, depth, hardness index, grind size declines have more than offset the efficiency gains..
We, as in civilization, can only afford to have all these parts at mines providing they are cheap. They are only cheap because so many of them are produced in massive factories by the millions, or tens of millions of hundreds of millions each year.
Simple computer chips, around 1,000-2,000 per large machine, whereas a modern sedan we drive will have nearly as many. These chips are only cheap because we produce millions or billions of them. Take away 90-95% of uses for these chips, the cost of them goes up sky high, assuming the businesses that make them can survive (unlikely).
EROEI or ‘effective EROEI’ when also taking metals and minerals into consideration has to keep rising for the whole of civilization to just be maintained OR the total of energy and materials mined has to keep rising fast enough to overcome falling/static ‘effective EROEI’.
Of course we live on a finite planet where there are limits that we reach long before anything runs out. Material and energy gathering, while grades of both are falling and extraction growth rates falling nearly flat (4.5Ej of fossil fuels, plus 3.2Ej renewables added in 2025 from latest Energy institute report), means the rest of civilization has to be robbed of resources to keep these industries supplied. It manifests itself as greater inequality throughout civilization, as the rich get richer dragging up official numbers, while the median person is worse of in materials and energy, especially in a growing population..
More later…
It seems I do not understand something basic.
You say EROEI must increase to sustain modernity.
I thought total energy and materials must increase to sustain modernity, but EROEI can and has been decreasing, which explains rising debt and falling living standards. We’ve still got modernity but its getting crappier.
Where did I go wrong?
Civilization as a dissipative energy structure that relies upon complexity, has to grow, due to the nature of the complexity, man made, and most importantly machines.
It has to be by increasing net energy, that can come from increasing EROEI and/or increasing total energy used, provided the net energy for the rest of civilization is growing.
Most of the experts that discuss EROEI in terms of falling more recently, leave out the gains of effectively increasing EROEI by technology and efficiency gains, as if they didn’t exist.
We’ve been growing net energy use by technology and efficiency gains as well as increased use of material and energy resources and new discoveries of high grade material resources and high EROEI energy.
This is a perspective over decades as civilization has grown in the last
250 years.
We provably had the highest ‘raw’ EROEI in the late 1960’s, but then had an explosion of technology and efficiency gains as people became aware resources were limited (Limits to Growth etc).
As energy and material use kept rising, this was an effective rise in EROEI. Like everything else technology and efficiency gains suffer from the law of diminishing returns.
The technology gains decades ago helped us scan the world for the last easy high grade resources of both energy and materials.
The high tech machines used in sand, clay and gravel quarries have been an effective increase in EROEI, as so much of these materials is relatively close to urban areas, so the declines in grades, distance etc is not as marked as metals, minerals and energy, leading to an overall ‘savings’ of energy in those areas..
(Nothing is as simple as one rule for all commodities in EROEI terms).
Economists use these variations in raw quantities to support their ‘substitution’ clause to show the future is viable. We can just replace copper use with more gravel…ummm..
Of course in more recent times, probably the last 2 decades, even the effective EROEI and net energy has been declining as the gains from tech, and efficiency have fallen, along with the growth of production falling..
Hmm, maybe what I’m calling ‘effective EROEI’ is really just the same as declining net energy, after allowing for materials as well. I keep coming back to how it’s an entire system and any one aspect that it seems possible to explain away, is really an integral part of the whole, so explaining EROEI by itself leave out important pieces of the big picture.
We have an entire system of civilization, not separate bits that have their own explanations.
I think I understand but please confirm this is correct:
Modernity requires increasing net energy (and minerals).
Net energy can increase while EROEI falls. (for example: many fracked wells versus one Ghawar).
Yes, but the total energy is virtually growing exponentially while EROEI falls, which brings on collapse quicker.
When total energy gathered starts falling, along with lower EROEI, also with lower ore grades etc, it becomes a rapidly accelerating decline in net energy for everything else, so guarantees collapse quickly..
Hence why I’m so keen on knowing when we are past total oil production with declines every year after. The whole Iran situation of course muddies the waters in what’s possible, but has to be less net energy for civilization as a whole. The big question is can oil/gas production from the Middle East ramp up again in time to avert a permanent decline in energy/net energy before too much damage is done to complexity around the world, which itself will undo efficiency gains as things simplify.
Thanks.
None of the oil experts understand what is going on. About half think demand has fallen due to a weak economy and the other half think we’ve avoided negative consequences of attacking Iran by draining our savings account. We should know what is reality soon.
We are a species that can measure gravitational waves, take pictures of black holes and communicate with light-speed.
But we cannot measure our own global economy. Yikes.
This whole area of inquiry is the main focus of the surplus energy economics website.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
Peruse that and get good coverage on the difference between the financial economy, the real economy, and the critical factor of EROEI versus growth and complexity.
A friend received a guided fishing trip as a gift and invited me to join him today.
Two 200 horsepower outboard motors burn 60 liters per hour at the optimum speed. At max speed they burn 120 liters per hour.
This is a view of my home from the water.
I’ve twice hiked to the peak of the mountain you can see in the background.
We caught our allowed limit of 2 coho salmon per person for a total of 8. We’re having some for dinner tonight and froze the rest.
Looks like a lovely day out. Great weather for it!
Nice. It’s crazy the amount of fuel you can burn cruising around with a couple of big Yamaha’s behind you. It can take well over an hour to get to some of the leases at work. Add a day’s work and the cruise back in and sometimes we’ll go through close to 400L.
Boats are unbelievably wasteful on resources to operate and maintain. I wouldn’t own one even if I was rich. One of those motors costs more than a nice car.
Instead of a boat, I would go for an atmospheric diving suit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_diving_suit
Why cruise on the surface when you can take a hike a few hundred meters below?!
Addendum:
A modernized version of the 1882 Carmagnolle design would be ideal, I think.
The Iranian LEGO crew has been quiet for a while but they came back to celebrate July 4 with a banger.
The quality of this propaganda is orders of magnitude better than the garbage propaganda created by BBC and Fox news.
“Morally reprehensible”: Prediction Markets Offer Bets on Wildfires
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/07/prediction-markets-polymarket-wildfire-bets-ethics-arson-incentives/
No risk of Arson here.
Let’s just bet on potential assassinations of politicians! What could possibly go wrong?!
You go first…
How about 0.01 USD on whoever is head of state of Iran right now being killed by a precision drone strike of US origin within the next three months?
A classiness of behavior never before witnessed…
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iran-stands-firm-on-hormuz-as-us
Meanwhile, most US citizens think this behavior, and the fact their country enabled a genocide in Gaza, and the fact Fauci is walking free, are perfectly ok.
Shame.