Introduction
This is a joint essay by me (Rob) and Hideaway, a contributor here and at other sites that discuss the human overshoot predicament.
Text in normal font is me speaking, and text in italics is Hideaway speaking.
Hideaway was the first to explain a new theory called CACTUS (Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System) that explains the conditions that must exist to sustain modernity, and why modernity will eventually end with a rapid collapse.
We discuss challenges associated with CACTUS and world events, and end with an emergency appeal by Hideaway to citizens of the world to force their leaders to attend a peace summit at Hideaway’s home in Australia.
Challenge 1: Modernity is Difficult to Understand
The big picture is that modern civilization behaves like a self-organizing energy dissipative structure.
Ask any AI to confirm this and you will get something back like:
The perspective that modern civilization functions as a self-organizing energy dissipative structure is a cornerstone of non-equilibrium thermodynamics and complex systems theory. This framework suggests that societies aren’t just collections of people and laws, but physical systems governed by the flow of energy.
Here is an analysis of how that comparison holds up under thermodynamic and systemic scrutiny:
1. The Thermodynamic Foundation
In physics, an energy dissipative structure (a concept pioneered by Ilya Prigogine) is a system that maintains its internal order by importing high-quality energy (low entropy) and exporting waste heat (high entropy).
- Biological Parallel: Just as a hurricane or a living cell must constantly “burn” energy to prevent falling into a state of equilibrium (death or stillness), a modern city requires a continuous, high-volume throughput of energy to maintain its infrastructure, transport, and digital networks.
- The Entropy Trade-off: Complexity is “paid for” by increasing the entropy of the surrounding environment. The more complex the civilization becomes, the faster it must dissipate energy to stay coherent.
2. Self-Organization and the “Maximum Power Principle”
Systems often organize themselves to maximize the rate of energy flow. This is known as the Maximum Power Principle (MPP).
- Feedback Loops: As civilization accesses denser energy sources (transitioning from wood to coal, then to oil and gas), it creates positive feedback loops. More energy allows for more specialized labor, which leads to better technology, which in turn allows for the extraction of even more energy.
- Emergent Complexity: No single person “designed” the global supply chain to look exactly as it does; it emerged as the most efficient way to dissipate available energy across the globe.
3. The Efficiency-Fragility Paradox
As these structures self-organize, they tend toward extreme optimization. While this makes them highly efficient at dissipating energy in a stable environment, it creates inherent risks:
- Tainter’s Complexity: Joseph Tainter argued that societies add layers of complexity to solve problems. Eventually, the energy cost of maintaining these layers yields “diminishing marginal returns.”
- Rigidity: To maximize throughput, “buffers” (like local food stores or spare parts) are removed in favor of “just-in-time” systems. This makes the dissipative structure highly sensitive to interruptions in the energy “feed.”
4. Metabolism and Scaling
Modern civilization exhibits Kleiber’s Law-like scaling, similar to biological organisms. Large cities, like large mammals, actually become more “energy efficient” per capita as they grow, but their total energy appetite never stops increasing. If the energy supply plateaus or declines, the “metabolism” of the structure cannot be maintained, often leading to a forced “simplification” or collapse to a lower state of complexity.
Comparison Summary
Feature Dissipative Structure (e.g., a Storm) Modern Civilization Requirement Constant energy gradient Constant fuel/electricity input Organization Spontaneous/Emergent Market-driven/Technological Waste Heat and turbulence Pollution and low-grade heat Endpoint Dissipates when gradient fails Simplifies when EROEI drops This lens effectively moves the conversation from political or economic theory into the realm of biophysical economics, where the physical laws of thermodynamics set the hard boundaries for growth and stability.
Would you like to explore how the Energy Return on Investment (EROEI) of different fuel sources acts as the “pressure” that drives this self-organization?
God dammit, I asked you for a yes or no answer.
The short answer is yes.
From a biophysical and thermodynamic perspective, modern civilization functions exactly like a self-organizing energy dissipative structure. It survives by importing high-quality energy, using it to maintain its complex internal order, and then exporting the resulting waste as high-entropy heat and pollution.
Why the answer is “Yes”:
- Thermodynamic Necessity: Like a hurricane or a biological cell, if you cut off the energy gradient (the “fuel”), the structure cannot maintain its complexity and will spontaneously simplify or collapse.
- The Maximum Power Principle: Civilization doesn’t just use energy; it self-organizes to maximize the rate at which it dissipates available energy to expand its boundaries and technology.
- Metabolic Scaling: Large-scale urban and industrial systems mirror biological organisms in how they consume resources and generate “waste heat” to stay far from equilibrium.
Essentially, “money” and “economics” are just the human-layer interfaces for what is, at its core, a massive physical engine governed by the laws of thermodynamics.
Why did I subject you to that AI slop?
Because when you strip out the hubris it is the governing force behind what’s going on in the Middle East right now.
Our leaders sense via growing debt, slowing growth, worrying energy forecasts, growing inequality, falling living standards, and rising social unrest that the energy gradient that sustains their countries is falling.
Some leaders have decided to capture by force a bigger portion of remaining resources for their countries.
Unfortunately, our leaders do not understand CACTUS which explains that the non-renewable energy and material flows that sustain modernity must grow, which requires the complexity of extraction technologies to increase, to compensate for falling reserve quality as non-renewable resources deplete, which requires a complex 6 continent supply chain, with contributions and cooperation of all countries to function.
CACTUS warns us that stronger countries taking by force resources from weaker countries will damage fragile networked hyper-optimized global supply chains, which will prematurely collapse modernity for all countries, including the stronger countries.
Challenge 2: CACTUS is Difficult to Accept
The ideas of CACTUS are difficult to accept for several reasons.
Our education system and culture teaches that humans have agency over their destiny and therefore political, economic, and personal choices control the destination. Most people believe that innovation, determination, and faith can fix any problem.
Political, economic, and personal choices do indeed influence the rate of growth, the maximum altitude, and the duration modernity exists, however modernity’s dependence on many depleting non-renewable resources guarantees a destination without modernity, no matter what we do. We do however have some control over how long modernity will last.
CACTUS is difficult for most people to accept including:
- citizens taught that innovation, determination, and faith can overcome any challenge;
- leaders that must believe in and promise a bigger better future to be elected;
- overshoot aware activists working to retain modernity and steer civilization towards a sustainable path via green growth, circular economy, steady state economy, degrowth, population reduction, regenerative agriculture, fusion energy, or colonizing Mars.
I, for example, believed for over ten years that if somehow a way could be found to break through our genetic tendency to deny unpleasant realities as explained by Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory, so that a majority of citizens became aware of our (very unpleasant) overshoot predicament, then we could return to a sustainable path and retain some of modernity’s best elements via rapid population reduction policies.
After Hideaway introduced me to CACTUS I resisted accepting that it was true for about a year because it forced me to accept that population growth is a prerequisite for modernity, because the complexity of extraction technologies must grow to sustain flows of non-renewable resources as the quality of their reserves declines, and growing populations are necessary to make advanced technology feasible and economic.
I did not want to believe that population growth is a core requirement for modernity because I had spent over 10 years learning that over-population was the core problem behind almost all of our problems. I wanted to believe a small modernity in balance with other life on the planet was possible.
I did not want to believe that modernity would collapse very quickly in months or years, rather than following a slow decline providing time to adjust over decades or centuries as most overshoot aware people assume.
I understand the human genetic tendency to deny unpleasant realities. Imagine how hard it must be for someone unfamiliar with MORT to accept CACTUS.
The evidence speaks for itself. Almost all of the most talented and famous overshoot intellectuals of the the last 50 years missed CACTUS. The only place on the planet discussing CACTUS is the tiny community of nobodies that frequent un-Denial. We have been unsuccessful to date getting any influential person in the overshoot space to even mention the word CACTUS.
Ditto pretty much for MORT.
Challenge 3: Risks Just Exploded
We are in the late stages of an advanced civilization. Growth has slowed or stopped, there are no new big reserves of high quality resources available to restart growth, and many frictions are building like war, debt, inequality, birthrate, pollution, climate change, and ecosystem loss.
Most of the people who understand our predicament thought we had anywhere from 4 years to a maybe a decade or two before the inevitable decline of modernity began. That meant we had some time to, in a best case, influence society to prepare a softer landing zone, or in a worst case, prepare personally, for the loss of modernity.
The US attack on Iran 23 days ago changed the forecast to a possible worst case scenario of modernity collapsing this year, and because of our recent CACTUS learnings, a total loss of modernity could occur very quickly once the collapse begins.
Ask your favorite AI, “how long can Hormuz remain closed before the global economy collapses?”.
You will get an answer of about 3 months based on energy reserves held by some countries, energy stored in ships in transit, and fertilizer shortages causing a food crisis.
Now ask your AI, “what duration from peace agreement to resumption of normal Hormuz operations did you assume?”.
You should get an answer of about 4-6 weeks based on time to clear the mines, restoration of insurance, and restarting logistics.
My sense is that 4-6 weeks is wildly optimistic to restart a global system of this complexity.
Infrastructure has been damaged, wells have been shut in and possibly damaged because storage tanks are full, bunker fuel is scarce and expensive, 3200 ships and 20,000 mariners have been trapped in the gulf that need to be reprovisioned and rescheduled, there’s a high probability a serious recession will begin shortly making it difficult for customers to pay for higher priced energy, and it will take time for trust and order to return.
One expert retired merchant mariner predicts at least 30 weeks to restart Hormuz after 30 days of closure.
Now ask your AI to revise its estimate assuming it takes 30 weeks to restart Hormuz operations.
It will answer that all material buffers in the global economy will deplete and the global economy will collapse before the end of 2026.
Then go back and think about what CACTUS implies and how hard it will be to restart modernity after the complexity that sustains the material and energy flows needed for modernity collapses.
You will conclude that even in a best case scenario, we may already be in big trouble.
Now consider President Trump’s ultimatum to destroy Iran’s critical infrastructure if it does not reopen Hormuz in about 12 hours from now.
Then consider Iran’s reply that it will respond by destroying critical energy extraction infrastructure in other gulf countries. Also consider Iran’s track record over the last year of doing exactly what it said it would do.
If Trump follows through on his threat, a best case that already threatens modernity this year, becomes a worst case too horrible to imagine.
Challenge 4: Hideaway’s Viral Peace Summit
If leaders understood CACTUS they would not be doing what they’re doing.
If citizens understood CACTUS they would force their leaders to also understand CACTUS.
Wars over depleting non-renewable resources, between modern countries dependent on the growing complexity and scale of a hyper-complex networked 6 continent supply chain to sustain them, will not result in a few wealthy victors and many poor losers, rather, wars will shorten the time to collapse of modernity for all countries.
Hideaway, in a moment of lucidity and boldness induced by the combination of prescribed ketamine, and Trump’s dangerous ultimatum, issued a challenge from his hospital bed to all citizens of the world to force their leaders to attend a peace summit at Hideaway’s home in Australia, where he will explain to them how the world actually works, the CACTUS implications of their decisions, and choices that would actually work to extend modernity.
As the price of the spice of all of our lives (oil) goes higher, standing in the back stalls looking at the big picture, our entire super complex system of civilization, is an energy dissipative structure, that runs on an ever increasing amount of energy.
The leaders, that we have chosen to represent us, or have allowed to flow to the top, think it’s a good idea to put it all at jeopardy, over a difference of opinion on how to end civilization, do it now seems like their preferred option, or they could come to some type of peace agreement and wait a bit longer for collapse to get us all.
It’s their decision..
They could all ask their top physicists what less energy will do to their own people, but they wont do that, they are more concerned about the ‘others’, having less than themselves (sorry their people).
They will possibly never consider sharing equally like humans did for 99% of our time of existence on this planet, as that would be inconvenient to their supporters.
The MPP and boundaries are the problem. Lines drawn on maps, you’re either us or them, why ??
Why because us leaders said so.. They are bad, we are good, so we need a line to separate our bit (my bit).
Sorry, I use to know them, they were good people, how did they become bad people?
They live on the wrong side of the line, look their hair is different, their skin is changing colour, they pray to the wrong gods, they are devils, evil.
FFS enough of that everyone gets the picture, we are all led into beliefs of one sort or another, and now we have it at an international scale that can end civilization, if they so chose.
I will bet my last can of sardines, (hang on, I have to save one to send to Rob in a couple of days)… that none of the leaders in this conflict of brinkmanship has all the details or all the answers, and is floundering just like the rest of us.
I put a challenge to the leaders of this conflict, I dare you all to come and meet me, bring your families and best friends, sit down and have a chat about getting rid of boundaries and restrictions on ‘others’ so we can all increase entropy together, instead of fighting over the last resources of the planet.
Then, if there is no agreement, blow it all up, with the first nukes headed towards where we all sit…
I bet my next to last can of sardines, that none will take up that sort of challenge, or anything similar.
Civilization is no different to an animal body, a small choke point on an essential artery, can kill billions of separate cells, because that one blockage stops the rest from working together as intended, and death.
We have a choke point on our civilization called the Strait of Hormuz, we can chose to close it, or to keep it open and keep billions alive now, to die later rather than earlier, your choice…
As stupid as it all sounds, we have a choice of collapse now or later, the headlines I’m reading are suggesting the decision of the leaders is to collapse now instead of later.
The power of the internet, simple words, on a screen, is unlike anything humanity has ever had before, and no-one really understands the power of people power if enough get the message.
My message is simple, stand outside the house of a politician, any politician, and demand they choose peace, not violence and death, and go to my home in Colac.
If the message becomes viral, then people will start doing it, in every country of the world. All the intelligence services have enough smarts to work out who we are and where we are, they can come to us.
We have all the tools at our disposal, to get to just about everyone on the entire planet, in a single short period of time, if people want to choose peace instead of death and violence.
We only need one of the leaders to actually get the message, the rest will follow. So it’s the current big 5 at the centre of this, DT, Vlad, Xi, Bibi and Mojtaba.
We’re in a new world of our own making and none of us have control, but we can try and do our own little bit. I’ve seen no solutions offered anywhere, I have a few that will work, if those involved are willing to come and talk to me, in the name of peace. No-one will really like them, but the alternative is, end it all now..
If that lot are desperate for a solution, come and have a chat altogether. If fighting is the only answer, then the first bomb goes off here, at the peace talks, and new more sensible leaders can come up the ranks.
I have a hope there is a 0.1% chance that leaders will grab at any solution as they all know the consequences of the current line they are taking. Am I a madman, possibly, if de-escalation is considered mad…
And thanks for all the fish…
Nassim Taleb with a concise summary comparing then and now:
This comment on Taleb’s X post was most informative and seems to comport with Hideaway’s CACTUS explanation?? I also thought the explanation about the gold price seemed to match what’s happening.
Crash incoming??
Donald J. Gorbachev
@donaldgorbachev
·
Mar 22
The five-second epistemology of the bullwhip.
Here’s a word from the future. Bullwhip. Not stagflation. Stagflation is the seventies. Stagflation is the word the analysts are going to use because it’s the word they already know. Bullwhip is the one to know. You’re going to hear it a lot. Remember it. Write it down. Tattoo it somewhere. Bullwhip.
The bullwhip effect is what happens when a small disruption at one end of a supply chain turns into a massive overcorrection at the other end. A store sells ten percent more toilet paper. The store orders twenty percent more from the distributor. The distributor orders forty percent more from the manufacturer. The manufacturer orders eighty percent more raw material. By the time the signal reaches the end of the chain it’s been amplified so many times it looks nothing like the original disruption. That’s the bullwhip. A small snap at the wrist becomes a crack at the tip that breaks the sound barrier.
Now apply it to everything. Everything. Oil offline. Twenty percent of the world’s supply. The snap at the wrist. Every actor in the chain overcorrects simultaneously and the overcorrection amplifies through every commodity that touches energy, which is every commodity, because every commodity touches energy. Fertilizer. Plastics. Steel. Aluminum. Food. Shipping. Trucking. Chemicals. Every single one bullwhips.
The seventies comparison is dead. The seventies didn’t have a supply shock. The oil existed. The oil moved. The oil was rerouted. OPEC embargoed specific countries and the oil found other buyers and the other buyers found other sellers and the supply was reshuffled, not removed. The Strait is closed. Twenty percent of the world’s oil is not rerouted. It’s offline. The tankers aren’t going somewhere else. The tankers aren’t going anywhere. The supply isn’t reshuffled. The supply doesn’t exist on the market. On day 3 the conventional narrative was already three times worse than the seventies. That was before the comparison meant anything. It’s day 22. The comparison is dead. This is something else entirely.
Every commodity in crisis simultaneously because energy is embedded in every commodity deeper than it was in 1973. More plastic. More shipping. More refrigeration. More processing. More of everything that runs on the thing that just went offline. The bullwhip doesn’t hit one chain. The bullwhip hits every chain at once. Every chain overcorrects at once. Every overcorrection amplifies at once. And the system has no slack. The slack was removed by just-in-time inventory and lean manufacturing and thirty years of efficiency optimization that stripped every buffer out of every chain so that the bullwhip has nothing to absorb it. The snap at the wrist hits the tip instantly. The tip is your grocery bill. The tip is your diesel price. The tip is 83 cents in a week and that’s before the bullwhip has even fully propagated.
Gold doesn’t hedge a bullwhip. Gold hedges a controlled inflation where the central bank prints and the economy absorbs and the price level rises gradually. Gold doesn’t go up when the sovereign wealth funds are forced sellers and every commodity is bullwhipping simultaneously and the central bank is printing into a void because the goods don’t exist because the energy doesn’t exist because the Strait is closed. Gold goes down because the forced sellers need cash and gold is the only thing they can sell.
Bullwhip. Not stagflation. Stagflation will come from the same analysts who said over in the first hour and relatively soon and short-term. Then in six months they’ll discover bullwhip and explain it on CNBC with a diagram. The diagram will show what the kitchen already said. A small snap. A big crack. Every chain at once. No slack. No buffer. No seventies playbook. Just the bullwhip and the Strait and the price that keeps going up because the energy that makes everything can’t get through the water that has mines in it. Bullwhip. Write it down.
AJ
Excellent find AJ.
It’s a good description of some elements of CACTUS but reality is probably much worse than he warns because it misses the dependence of modernity on the growth of many depleting non-renewable resource flows, all of which require growing extraction technology complexity to compensate for falling reserve quality, which requires a complex networked 6 continent hyper-optimized supply chain.
I’ve pinned your comment to the top so people who visiting this old post will see it first.
Here is a simple example of how deluded nearly everyone is in proposed self sufficiency of the US, if everywhere else collapsed..
Most of the drill pipe used in the USA is made, finished in the USA or imported from Japan, South Korea, Europe and China, with the raw ingredients mostly from those areas..
75%-80% comes in as unfinished ‘green tube’, from pretty much the same sources.
Those specific mills are 90–100% dependent on high-grade iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil to create the high-purity steel required for drilling.
How long would it take to influence supply, not cost (which would be immediate), of the raw products getting to drill sites… 6-12 months. What assumptions for the 6-12 months? Providing South Korea, Japan, China, Europe didn’t immediately ban exports of green pipe and other materials made from high grade iron ore that they are no longer getting…
What if they did do the logical thing and banned these exports of high grade steel they need themselves, how long before shortages and shutdown of US drilling?? Weeks to months…
The US has plenty of oil reserves, but after months due to high depletion rates of the fracked fields, within months the availability of oil for use will plummet, due to the complex supply chain no-one wants to understand..
Now multiply the effect of iron ore by hundreds to thousands for all the other bits and pieces, that are relied on for every aspect of all the finishing factories to perform their function. They will have had their own Leibig’s law of the minimum problem possibly long before they lack the green tubes…
Australia’s giant iron ore mines are pretty much FIFO operations (fly in fly out), where the workers come from Perth and so do does most of the food on the same flights, a couple of thousand km by air.
China supplies around 35% of Australia’s jet fuel and has already banned exports of finished fuels.. 1 plus, 1 plus, 1 plus, 1 plus, 1 equals zero..
Berman thinks US leadership is blind to the energy-economic risks of the war.
It does feel like that.
My guess is the west is going to go from complacency to full on panic in about a week when scarcity starts to spread.
I smelled hints of it in the stores today. Could be imagining things. But I’m hyper aware of the good prepping food and I watch inventories in the stores very closely.
Preptip:
If there’s something you want and can afford for emergency preparedness, and you suspect it will be scarce or a lot more expensive in the future, don’t try to accurately predict collapse and wait until the last minute.
10 years ago I bought a kerosene heater, cooking stove, and lanterns. I also bought a fair amount of kerosene at the time but wondered if I was crazy because I expected collapse was a ways off in the future.
Today I went to buy more kerosene and it’s not available.
I then went directly to my discount warehouse and bought more instant coffee.
Funny, I was talking to Renaee about this last night. You don’t need to talk yourself into or justify any purchases from here on out.
Just like the collapse saying of “today is the best day of the rest of your life”, the economic equivalent is now “today is the cheapest this item will ever be”.
I’m a little embarrassed to admit that my willpower broke down and I bought more tuna on sale at $1.00 per can.
Yeah, don’t be embarrassed. Yesterday I bought another 50 lbs. of beans (should I put them in mylar bags with O2 adsorbers or is that too optimistic that we’ll be around that long??).
AJ
Preptip:
I have not been storing dried beans in mylar bags with oxygen absorbers. My experience and my research suggests that as beans age they lose more moisture which may require a little extra cooking time but does not affect nutrition so I don’t worry about it.
Hideaway you are equally the maddest and the sanest … Crickey we are so totally fucked
Chris, there might be some stuff from Tom Murphy today for your next fire essay.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2026/03/the-magic-of-feedback/
There is an interesting idea by Shane Simonsen that humans using fire was an essential ecological function to free up all the carbon again. I don’t think he mentioned it in this interview, but you will still like the chat I think
Just another reason to despise USA; they hijacked the doomasphere.
I enjoy big picture thinking about how we got here and all… but this seems to be dead now. And even when I come across a current (or most likely older) piece that would’ve normally piqued my interest… I barely look at it and instead go find something to read about the war.
Wolf Richter today on inflation…
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/24/5-diesel-could-unleash-inflationary-mindset-the-fed-better-not-look-through-inflation-was-already-hot-before-iran-war/
I think I know what this is all about. Iraqui resistance fighters agreed to a cease fire to allow NATO forces to leave Iraq. Before that 24 hour cease fire was over Israel/US forces bombed a meeting if Iraqi commanders. My arabic used to be OK but its gone so relying on the translation.
Yes, I also saw the news on that US deceit.
US has lost all traces of morality and ethics.
Quark today speculates that the US thinks it is self-sufficient enough to weather the storm and will eventually benefit from the rest of the world collapsing.
If this is true, why is US escalating the Iran war by sending ground troops?
Why not exit and let someone else try to reopen Hormuz?
I think quark is wrong. I think US understands impending energy scarcity and is attempting to secure a larger share of what remains from China and others.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/crisis-divergentes
Implications of sulfur shortages:
You can see many CACTUS feedback loops in the above.
Iran has a very good sense of humor. Yesterday one of their military leaders put out a video mocking Trump as a reality show host saying “You’re fired”.
I saw a perceptive comment by someone else.
US now attacks after markets close on Friday and announces peace before markets open on Monday.
I would add, if an attack is required mid-week US blames a rogue Israel.
Still hoping we can hang the bastards before modernity collapses.
The synchronization of the crime across all western countries still amazes me. Why wouldn’t Germany, once a rational careful country, do proper tests regardless what corrupt US told it?
AI is good for humor.
B still thinks the fall will be slow and steady. Somehow I don’t…
Yes, B does believe in a slow collapse but I’ve yet to see him explain why he believes that.
Have you seen an explanation?
Nope. I guess it’s a matter of hard denial of the dire consequences of a fast collapse. I think B is a good person. That often makes it difficult to look toward the dark horizon that looms ahead…
Why do smart aware intellectuals like B think it is ok to make a claim without providing evidence it is correct?
I disagree on a person being good or bad re seeing what is on the horizon, it’s 100% subjective statement. (even though we tend to make such judgements all the time.) We are what we are, based on the up to date conditioning and circumstances we were born into, none of it chosen or self directed. The more likely explanation is different levels of denial. It’s a mystery to me why some do not shed the last bit of denial/hope. I cannot see any patterns / consistent elements that indicate why denial persists for some and not others.
Fair enough. My opinion stemmed from my own experience with denial in these matters. I find much easier to look toward the future when I think about my own suffering than when I think about the suffering of others, particularly children or people with children.
But it’s entirely possible that what B says is simply because he’s convinced of his conclusions based on the data he has analyzed, that he’s in another stage of denial, or for any other reason that escapes me…
Good point. And thanks to you & Klin for giving me something to think about.
Does B have kids? Seems like that helps MORT to keep a person in check from going too far.
It is funny though. All these people who have gone on a journey… and not just an overshoot/collapse journey. Human history, american history, energy, religion, economics, etc… It always reveals the same thing; we humans are addicted to blocking out the truth in favor of a more comfortable, rosy picture.
But yet these same people who know perfectly damn well that their entire journey has been full of these moments of peeling back the denial layers… they somehow still allow the denial to be in full control. FFS, doomer pussies like Jessica Wildfire, Andrii, and George Tsakraklides are still searching to find our true purpose and stewardship. (btw, if it’s true that Jess and George have been making a living with their wack ass ‘paid subscriber only’ content, then I missed out on a goddamn fortune.😂)
I have no clue what allows a person to climb all the way to the top of reality mountain. For a while I thought the reason I was so easily able to embrace the Spinoza, Zapffe, Ligotti stuff was because of the overall negative outlook I’ve had most of my life. As far back as I can remember I’ve known that something is royally fucked up. So yes, some confirmation bias when I got introduced to the pessimistic world, but there’s gotta be more to it. Seems like many people that are into this genre are not here because they’ve been miserable for most of their life.
This was a comment I made last year when I finally had a pretty firm grasp on the purpose of life. It makes me think that Rob’s ‘defective denial genes’ is the best explanation that we’re ever gonna come up with.
https://un-denial.com/2025/04/10/by-gaia-gardener-on-growing-coffee/comment-page-1/#comment-111856
my mind likes the neat and tidy defective denial genes too, but we will never know, and increasingly it won’t matter, as it dawns on everyone the ship of fools is going down.
And it’s funny that it is termed the pessimistic philosophy, as I listen to Martin Butler on Spinoza and others, I don’t see it as pessimism, more as just clear eyed seeing based on trial and error in life and grasping impermanence.
Equally strange is that some days the fear and anxiety is rife, while other days we can be detached and accepting of it all. I feel completely happy and content today, as if it’s not happening at all.
I’m glad I got to read that other comment of yours and hear that song. your back story is a unique one with so much questing to understand.
Yep, two words: defective genes.
I still think a slow and stead collapse is possible, but it’s looking increasingly less likely. A civilization this large and complex has never existed before, so we don’t have any historical precedent to guide us on how this collapse will play out.
IMHO, the most likely scenario is a collapse that starts off slow and steady but then reaches a tipping point or a phase transition where it then greatly accelerates. This will most likely come when we don’t have energy to keep extracting low-grade fossil fuels and minerals. At that point, the bottom will fall out from under modernity.
Good morning friends,
Is it just me or do others here know that we have been living the “slow and steady” collapse for some time now. Maybe it’s just beginning to show (like an unwanted pregnancy) for the most privileged in the Western nations and the continuing symptoms have been affecting many in the global south even as they try to break out of global hegemony. IMHO, we are most definitely at the tipping point now brought to certainty with the war and any day, week, month (but probably not year) now we will be going off the cliff. Stellar, you are so faithful to often include that image of Wile E Coyote just before free fall. What has brought shrieks of laughter for countless children of all generations will now be our doom.
Like my bro Chris, I have been numbed to most other topics other than the war and the repercussions that approach like a Balrog from the depths, a foe beyond any of us. Every morning I steel myself to turn on the computer to check for the latest developments, surreal as it is to have my body still functioning in our status quo modernity but my mind fully aware and reeling from what is coming. I try my best to do the daily tasks that need doing, but even any further survival preparation has become somewhat half-hearted as I begin to gauge the benefit of energy invested and possibility of return at this stage. Instead, I am engaging in other activities which my body and spirit seem to crave as a closing of the circle. Simple things like re-reading a passage or two from a favourite book, looking at old photos (but only a few at a time, otherwise it does get overwhelmingly emotional), soaking in a hot bath. My body is seeking anything that is the equivalent of adopting the fetal position, which comforts and prepares me for the next stage of letting go. I have been calling old friends (and many of my friends are actually elderly), never to speak of my knowledge of doom but just to tell them how much they mean in my life and ask after theirs. Each connection is a farewell and private homage.
Well, here is another day for me to live out my complete life, better seize it as I can. I trust you are all walking steady and have secure handrails as we look over the edge of the cliff. Love and best to everyone.
Namaste.
Very welcome words as always Gaia, I still hope that you can at some stage put up some photos of your property too, given I won’t have the pleasure of seeing it in person now, very sadly, but no pressure if a technical task is too over whelming!
All those activities you listed sound lovely, esp the bath. Looking after our nervous system atm is very important to weather the daily shocks of Empire’s stupidity. I am enjoying a good laugh too with these AI gems that Rob finds on twitter.
One of my life’s well rounded achievements is I have finally nailed the perfect sourdough muffin, and have been making them every other day, along with my bread. Screw the low carbs, eating what ever takes my fancy while the abundance is here.
Gaia, in case you don’t know how to do it, you can email me them, or send a link to download your photos, and then I will edit them to removed GPS coordinates etc. to protect you privacy before posting them.
Lovely thoughts as always Gaia, stay well.
I reckon John Michael Greer will be right in that there will be fast collapse and then stabilization at a lower level for a bit, following by more periods of collapse and stabilization, but always trending down.
Whereas in the Deep Green world, we were always debating what speed of collapse would be ideal for the health of the planet.
Some distraction from the doom…we started a promising new series last night, I am hoping this will see me through for a few weeks/months of easy watching; light hearted and funny – perfect pre bed time mix.
It’s been out for a while, called The Marvellous Mrs Maisel
“In 1958 New York City, Miriam “Midge” Maisel, a young, affluent Jewish-American housewife, embarks on a stand-up comedy career after husband Joel, an untalented amateur comic, abruptly leaves her following his dismal set at The Gaslight Cafe. Drunk and dejected, Midge returns to the Gaslight in her nightgown, and in a bawdy impromptu set, vents her predicament before being arrested for indecency. Midge meets famed comic Lenny Bruce when he is arrested the same night for using profanity in his act. Gaslight manager Susie Myerson, recognizing Midge’s raw talent, coaches her on stand-up comedy.”
Thanks for the tip. Light hearted is good these days.
Strange that oil facilities all over the world are blowing up.
What I’ve read is that they run them at at full capacity now due to obvious reasons and given the age of most of them accidents happen much more often.
I asked how many tankers usually arrive in Australia each week, and how many are coming now and what the prediction is. Here is what ‘my’ chatGPT, trained on Cactus, reports back. With all the links to ms news outlets included. I just find it hard to believe that we have this level of normality out there, if this is where we are headed??
—–
Now we can answer your question with real-world numbers grounded in what is actually happening right now, not just theoretical flow models.
1. Baseline (normal conditions)
From the earlier flow calculation:
So:
~3 tankers per day
~20–22 refined fuel tankers per week
That is the steady-state requirement to keep the system balanced.
2. What has changed since the crisis
We now have concrete signals from current reporting:
Confirmed disruptions
At the same time:
3. Translating that into tanker arrivals to Australia
We need to convert those signals into weekly arrivals.
Step 1 — immediate effect (last 1–2 weeks)
If 6 tankers were cancelled over roughly a 2–3 week delivery window, that implies:
~10–15% reduction so far
So current arrivals are likely around:
~18–19 tankers/week (down from ~21)
This aligns with what we’re seeing:
Step 2 — what the global disruption implies next
Here’s the critical part.
If Hormuz flows are down ~70–80%, Asian refineries will begin:
So tanker arrivals to Australia don’t drop immediately to zero — they decay over time.
4. Likely current range (realistic estimate)
Based on:
A realistic current estimate is:
~15–19 tankers per week arriving now
That’s a 10–30% supply reduction.
5. Why this matches what we’re seeing on the ground
This level of reduction produces exactly the signals already reported:
At ~10–15% drop:
At ~20–30% drop:
Which matches:
6. What happens next (if Hormuz stays closed)
This is where your earlier system model becomes very important.
If disruption persists:
Weeks 3–5
Weeks 5–8
Because:
7. The key systemic insight
Australia does not need imports to stop to trigger a crisis.
It only takes:
~15–20% reduction in tanker arrivals
to start breaking:
8. Bottom line (clear answer)
9. What you should focus on next
The most important question now is not just how many tankers are arriving, but: Which sectors are being prioritised for the reduced fuel supply
Because that determines whether:
If you want, we can now map how Australia is likely allocating fuel across sectors (freight vs mining vs agriculture vs public) — that’s the lever that determines whether this becomes a managed shortage or a **visible crisis.
It always wants you to keep coming back for more, but I don’t think the next prompt would provide anything new. Any other inputs to this from aussies or NZers?
It seems to be estimating tanker arrivals based on trends. Have you asked it to check actual confirmed shipments?
no – that is probably better wording! The 6 cancelled shipsments is definite, but yes I should ask it how it knows that those ‘ususal’ ones are here at our shores.
More info here:
“Just before we do that, I want you to back track a bit. You were estimating tanker arrivals to Australia, and reported on the cancelled tankers, but can you check actual confirmed shipments to Australia since the crisis started?”
Yes — we now have hard, confirmed data points, and they significantly refine (and slightly correct) the earlier estimates.
1. Confirmed baseline: how many shipments Australia normally receives
From official and trade data:
That equals:
~18–20 tanker shipments per week
This aligns closely with our earlier model (~20–22/week), so the baseline is solid.
2. Confirmed current shipment schedule (post-crisis)
We now have a very important real-world data snapshot:
That leaves:
~74–75 shipments still expected over that month
3. Converting that into weekly arrivals (actual, not estimated)
Let’s convert:
74 shipments / 4 weeks ≈ 18.5 shipments per week
So based on confirmed schedules:
~18–19 tankers per week are still expected to arrive
4. What has actually been lost so far
From multiple confirmed reports:
So the net real reduction right now is smaller than it first appears.
Current situation (important nuance):
5. Additional confirmed behaviour (critical signal)
We also now know:
6. What this means (correcting the earlier model)
This is the key update:
Earlier estimate (model-based):
Now (confirmed data):
So the system has not yet experienced a large drop in physical arrivals
7. Why shortages are still appearing (despite stable arrivals)
This is subtle but crucial.
Shortages are appearing because of:
1. Timing mismatch
2. Distribution friction
3. Behavioural effects
8. The real signal to watch (this is the pivot point)
Right now:
Australia has maintained shipment volume by substituting sources
But:
9. What happens next (based on confirmed data trajectory)
The current numbers imply:
Right now (Week 1–2 of disruption)
Next phase (Weeks 3–6)
If replacement cargoes cannot keep up:
Later phase (Weeks 6–8)
If refinery exports tighten:
10. Bottom line (clear, evidence-based answer)
The critical insight
Australia has not yet been “cut off” — it is still being supplied at near-normal rates
What you are seeing now is:
Someone has done a great job putting this website together.
http://www.nzoilwatch.com
this is great – thank you.
Unf*cking unbelievable.
A few hours hours after calling off the attack for 5 days because promising negotiations were underway, Trump attacked Iran’s power system.
You can’t make this shit up.
P.S. I confirmed this is true.
Iran is currently attacking Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq. Reports of power outages in Kuwait. No details yet.
Come on Iran. Let em have it! Keep firing! Pour it on em!
(and FFS fire some missiles toward Washington DC)
LOL!!! perfect for this moment.
Dead on.
So the US just committed the war crime of perfidy again. Why should any country trust the US at this point?
I tried to find headlines confirming this, but didn’t get anything. Apparently, the mainstream media isn’t covering this.
Yes no mention in mainstream news this morning that US attacked Iran’s energy infrastructure hours after promising not to for 5 days.
Instead they told us we have to worry about Iranian spleeper cells in our communities.
Antonio Turiel thinks a crash in Europe is now unavoidable.
https://crashoil.blogspot.com/2026/03/dead-man-walking.html
Canadian Prepper makes a good point.
Why is US blowing up Russian oil facilities after being so worried about oil prices they removed sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, and had to embarrass themselves by backing off on Trump’s 48 hour ultimatum?
I think historians will say WWIII started several years ago.
Status of attack on Russian oil facilities in Primorsk?
God bless Iran for giving everyone a masterclass on how to deal with terrorists.
The entire world is laughing at Trump and asking the same question:
And yes, I’m probably just falling for the game. Seems like some major stock market shenanigans are going on behind the scenes.
But I don’t care, it’s too entertaining. And surely it will have long-term implications about how the rest of the world views USA.
Godspeed Iran. And continue to shut down the devil’s sound.
Turn on the radio
Nah, fuck it, turn it off
Fear is your only god on the radio
Nah, fuck it, turn it off
Turn it off, turn on the radio
Nah, fuck it, turn it off
Fear is your only god on the radio
Nah, fuck it
Your savior, my guillotine, crosses and kerosene
Merge on the networks, slangin’ nerve gas
Up jump the boogie, then bang, let ’em hang
While the paranoid try to stuff the void
Let’s capture this AM mayhem
Undressed and blessed by the Lord
The power pendulum swings by the umbilical cord
Shock around the clock, from noon ’til noon
Men grabbin’ they mics and stuff ’em into the womb
Terror’s the product ya push
Well, I’m a truth addict, aw shit, I got a headrush
Sheep tremble and here come the votes
Thrown from the throat, cages and scapegoats
Undressed and blessed by the Lord
The same devil that ran around Managua wit’ a sword
Check out the new style that Ollie found
A tune with a bullet to shut down the devil sound
Flex the cerebellum, fire, uh
Somebody gotta shell ’em, these evil angels’ lists
Hittin’ the AM playlist, paid to say this
That one’s inhuman, illegal, single, woman
The one without a room
The transmissions whippin’ our backs
Yeah, comin’ down like bats from Stacey Koon
Terror’s the product ya push
Well, I’m a truth addict, aw shit, I got a headrush
The sheep tremble and here come the votes
Thrown from the throat, cages and scapegoats
One caution, the mic’s a detonator, unwound
To shut down the devil sound
ps. Yes, I’m very unstable. Yesterday I was worried about the end of civilization. Today I’m praying for it. Tomorrow, who knows.
If you’re bored and want a project maybe you could translate FE’s incoherent ramblings about Iran being a fake war, like Ukraine, to force conservation of energy so the elite do not have to admit peak oil to the masses, into a coherent story that explains all the evidence we see. FE always has a nugget of truth in his ramblings but never slows down enough to connect all the dots into something plausible.
I genuinely gave it a try but then I got a headache.
Eddy does have me 2nd guessing my certainty about the fragility of global civilization. And it makes perfect sense that a year from now when we are paying $100 for a loaf of bread, the ruling class can still keep some type of order by blaming the Strait of Whoremooz as the sole reason for our pain and misery and it will all be back to normal soon… just so that they can continue to keep their elite status for as long as possible while knowing that we are running out of energy.
But dammit!! In Eddy’s world “they” know more than un-Denial about overshoot, complexity and dwindling resources. That’s the hard part for me to buy. Especially the fact that our polymath geniuses couldn’t even figure it out.
But then again, when I watch Brian Berletic videos, he gives me the same type of vibe. Brian makes it look like US foreign policy is 20 steps ahead of everyone else (and 20 years).
Thanks for trying.
There’s a lot of people dying for a fake war.
Morning everyone, a good night’s sleep, drugs almost completely out of my system, still mostly the same clear thoughts, with some addition of contrition. I don’t have all the answers, I have some, because I don’t have and never can have all the information, none of us can and as soon as we think we do, we are wrong..
Rob, one of us owes the other a can of sardines, did the world end over the weekend, or did something slightly saner happen and time was bought?? I’m looking forward to either sending or receiving a can of sardines, or should we keep the bet virtual as long term point scoring?? LOL..
Right now, someone somewhere has got into DT’s ear and he bought and owned the decision of buying a bit more time, that’s all that matters. Does anyone here think it’s the wrong decision?? I don’t..
DT has to be given credit for making the correct decision, we can argue about how long, which are just semantics.. Has he made the wrong decision about the prior timeline, well we all think so in the lack of further evidence of why that decision was made, but something changed and he made the correct decision in the end.. That’s all that matters..
During the last week, while all the commotion has been happening, another complex dissipative structure has been doing it’s thing, in the background, which is clear evidence of why we don’t have all the answer.
Cyclone Narelle, built off the North Queensland coast and slammed into the norther tip of Cape York Peninsular. It had built to category 4-5 off the coast, then lost strength and started to dissipate over land as it’s energy source was mostly gone. Simple physics in action. But the Peninsular up there is thin and as soon as part of the cyclone reached the warm waters of The gulf of Carpenteria, it picked up strength again, it had more energy, and had not reached some tipping point of collapse, so was able to continue a bit longer, until it hit more land, losing strength again, but now out to sea again, more hot water and energy and possibly building to full strength again…
the problem of tipping points, is we don’t know for certain exactly when they are going to happen as we can never have all the information. We certainly don’t with civilization, we only have evidence from past ones, and can learn lesson form them, but to think our current one with totally more complex layers is going to act exactly the same as prior ones is just hubris without all the evidence which is never possible…
Hi Hideaway, glad you’re back after a a good night’s sleep.
There was no peace agreement this weekend but you can keep my sardines as a credit for our next bet.
I’m afraid Australia might experience scarcity a little before Canada does so you might have to declare force majeure and keep the sardines for good.
I expect the United States to use nuclear weapons soon. Here’s why. The war with Iran is lost. The US has three options as I see it:
1. Declare victory and go home. Close all their bases in the Gulf. If they did that the US dollar would be toast. The yuan would be the new reserve currency. The US would collapse into chaos and civil war.
2. Start a military draft with the goal of putting a million boots on the ground in Iran. Good luck with that one. The US is already bitterly divided. What are the chances of getting Americans to send their sons off to get slaughtered in Iran?
3. Drop a nuke on a couple major Iranian cities hoping it will get them to unconditionally surrender like Japan in 1945.
I expect Trump is going to go with number 3 in the next few weeks. I also expect the Iranians will respond with everything they’ve got against Israel and the gulf states. Then we have Mad Max.
Would love to be wrong.
Given the political situation Option 2 is off the table. Congress will not vote for a draft in an election year. At this point, I don’t think there is any way this ends well for the US. I’m hoping for Option 1, but I fear you are right.
Trump being the alpha chimp that he is will not allow option 1
Nukes are possible I guess as you suggest, but it’s risky because assets the US wants may be contaminated, there may be nuclear fallout on friends, there will be global condemnation, and friends China and Russia may respond in kind.
The war is existential for both sides. It’s unlikely anyone will back down without total defeat.
A negotiated peace is unlikely because the US has proven multiple times with multiple parties that it cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith, or to follow through on anything they agree. Hell, the US tried to kill Putin while he was talking to Trump on the phone.
What do you see as the flaw in my prediction that the US intends to use the Marine Expeditionary Units that are on the way to setup outside the gulf out of range of Iran to blockage tankers destined for China?
The goal would be to create enough economic pressure on China that it asks its friend Iran to open Hormuz, and to force China to provide the minerals needed by the US military.
Rob believe me I would love to see a non-catastrophic outcome. I have two bucket list trips scheduled, Moab Utah next month and Greenland in July. Would love to see some more of this lovely planet before we destroy it. Your Marine Expeditionary Units would need to be so far away from Iran’s missiles the tankers could just go around them couldn’t they?
My (superficial) understanding is that the MEUs have exactly the right skills and weapons for seizing or attacking tankers. I imaging tankers are required to stay in well defined shipping lanes.
Impossible to know what will happen. Let’s watch and see.
Could be a good year to do some bucket list travel. Hope you enjoy your trips.
toomuchmagic,
Dr. Ted Postol is a nuclear weapons expert who knows a lot more about risks than me.
He agrees with you that it is a high probability that Iran will be nuked, but by Israel.
He is warning everyone that Iran will respond by quickly building 12 nukes to retaliate.
Postol then provides a nice seminar for the Iranian weapons engineers on the most effective way to wipe out Israel.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=255131
Oh, productive talks eh?
Uh huh.
Someone explained reality to The Donald, I suspect.
Iran has a highly-distributed power grid. That is, you can blow up their largest plant and it nails something like 5% of their electrical generation capacity. Yes, we could hit a lot more than one, of course, and do significant damage.
However, Iran could, in retaliation nail a bunch of desal plants or the power feeds to them across the rest of the Middle East and if they did in Israel, for example, Israel would have to evacuate 80% of their population because they wouldn’t have any drinking water. Incidentally Iran did hit Dimona (the city, not the nuclear plant — but that is where most of the people who work there live) over the weekend and those incoming missiles were not intercepted so targeting non-hardened and indefensible civilian infrastructure is something Iran has proved they can strike — even after the United States and Israel pounding them for nearly a month.
In other words the original threat from Trump was asymmetrical in the wrong direction, and it was not only Israel that was exposed to this — it was also the rest of the Middle East and targeting any nation that refused to expel American military presence (note that Iraq basically has done so other than in Kurdish-controlled areas as of a couple of days ago) would have done the same to all of those nations.
That is, the original threat was stupid because it was non-executable without catastrophic consequences to those who we consider “on our side” or at least “who we have involvement with.”
Where would those refugees go? I don’t see any country in the Middle East accepting Israeli refugees, so most likely, they’d have to go to Europe. Would Europe be willing to accept Israeli refugees? I could actually see Germany accepting Israeli refugees as atonement for the Holocaust.
Also, If Iran hit Israeli desalination plants, causing them to evacuate much of their population, I could see Israel retaliating with a nuclear weapon.
The Monty Python skit continues.
Trump announced a 5 day delay in attacking Iran’s power system.
Trump said “someone senior in the Iranian government called me, I didn’t call them, it’s not the new Ayatolla, we’re not even sure he’s alive, no it’s someone else very senior and very important, but I can’t remember his name, you know we’ve killed almost all their senior people, and he’s proposed a very good deal, and we’re really close to getting everything we want.”
Iran said there have been no talks and accused Trump of backing down to Iran’s threats and manipulating the markets.
Stocks are up.
Oil is down.
Hormuz remains closed except to friend’s tankers that may pass for a $2M toll.
This one’s very very important, he used all capital letters.
Correction, he knows Americans are idiots.
Tariffs did not work. Maybe the Monty Python skit is actually a new way to fund the US government.
The authors of The Limits to Growth seem to have understood remarkably well in their scenario modelling that “modern civilization functions exactly like a self-organizing energy dissipative structure.”
Having avoided more immediate and total catastrophes in intervening decades (so far) we have kept right on schedule.
The Limits to Growth people also believed collapse could be avoided by stopping growth and adopting a steady state economy, which tells me they did not understand CACTUS.
That is also true, Rob yes. They didn’t do a CACTUS analysis of their steady state scenario. By the way I was thinking about how natural it is for us to believe we can choose far more than is really possible to in various predicaments. I often laugh when I catch myself. For me it helps to realise everyone’s abilities and challenges change with every epoch, however much we refuse to accept it.
The Iranian media called it a ruse by Trump to lower energy prices and give the US/Israel time to prepare for further escalation. Seems like a correct interpretation to me. I guess we have time until the market closes next Friday.
A couple of hours out of drugs and a feeling of exhausted, possibly falling asleep anytime soon 9.30 PM here. 8 replies an no-one thinks spreading the word of a stupid simple message to the world is a good idea and done so, oh well so be it..
I’m going to try in the only way I have possible at this time, spreading the message as virally as possible until I fall asleep.
It’s simple give up and accept collapse now, or try a stupid viral, not much effort to get everyone you know to contact everyone they know and spread the following…
“Go to Colac, Give peace a chance first”
My name is Bill Lambert, I’ll take the wrap for trying, in the only way left possible. My faith, hope and trust is with everyone else, thinking looking stupid for 5 minutes is worth the effort.
Scream it, whisper it, send it to every politician, every news outlet, say it out loud in every shopping centre or office block, prepare to look stupid for 5 minutes in your lonely chance to save the world as you know it from immanent collapse, or do nothing and let them do it too us..
If no-one does it, nothing happens, if it actually spreads, it has a tiny chance of working, but if you prefer the end of civilization as you know it, just laugh and do nothing..
Contact Rob, he has my email, I want no phone calls Rob for 11 hours, I’ll send you mine if anyone of substance wants to try.
I do have a plan, that at least stops this bit of nonsense brinkmanship, and the start of something much bigger. We have one shot and the time is now..
What has anyone got to lose??
I’m copying and pasting this short message everywhere, it needs to spread, or not..
It’s up to every little person out there. Individually we are nobodies, together a tiny chance..
Please do the same, and spend 5 minutes of your time looking foolish, so at least you can say you did something…
Just curious, Whats the “something much bigger”?
Dear Bill, you have my greatest appreciation but it seems to me that MORT is kicking you really hard right now. This train has no brakes and given what we know it’s foolish to assume or pretend otherwise.
@HideAway
I hope you feel better soon.
‘Someone’ is ‘optimistic’?
” So the simple reserves‑to‑production ratio is:
Years of oil left≈1,765,000,000,000/37,400,000,000≈47 years
Worldometer and similar compilations report essentially the same figure—about 47 years of proved reserves at 2024–2025 consumption levels” ?
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/02/13/319-the-end-of-growth/comment-page-3/#comments
What changes, if any, do you expect in the rate of flow over the next 47 years?
Excellent job you two! Civilization Collapse For
DummiesNormies. But we all know they still won’t be able to accept it or even wrap their heads around it.Your essay reminded me of this awesome speech by Edward R Murrow in 1958. (pretty sure it’s word for word)
And a shout out to MORT at 1:17
I checked to see if I had ever recommended this movie. Yep, couple years ago I made an outstanding post. Goddamn I was good. Crazy Eddy aint got shit on me!😂
https://un-denial.com/2024/07/29/book-review-the-end-of-global-net-oil-exports-by-lars-larsen-2024/comment-page-2/#comment-104338
Thanks, I watched that movie after you recommended it.
1958 was a good year for me.
I have been working to get a set of emergency flyers back into circulation. These flyers were originally written by Bob Waldrop in Oklahoma. They contain a wealth of information on how to prepare for and deal with emergency situations. I made the flyers available online and as downloadable archives of PDF, ODT and TXT files.
Study them, implement the suggestions, print them out, share them around, make copies so you have them available when they are needed.
You can find them here: https://ipermie.net/pages/emergency-flyers.html
Currently available in English and Dutch and licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike-NonCommercial. I am open to receive contributions for different languages.
Hello and thank you Arno.
A quick skim tells me there are some high quality preptips here.
Thanks for the endorsement! It’s my small contribution to prepare for CACTUS.
Here’s an effort to give some guidance on a response at community level to the current situation here in NZ – https://wiseresponse.substack.com/p/what-can-i-do-in-response-to-the
Thanks Campbell, lots of good ideas here.
My eyes immediately jumped to the most important prepping information:
New Zealand does not grow coffee.
No we don’t argh!
We actually can grow coffee in the north where I live. There’s 1 commercial coffee producer in NZ. I have collected a few beans recently from some local coffee plants to hopefully propagate some plants from. But that’s a long term project. In the meantime we have stocked up on coffee ☕😀
Here I seize the day and be the first to comment on this latest (but hopefully not last?) post on the good ship Un-Denial. To be captained by the two best, Rob and Hideaway has been a peak experience and I am just overwhelmed with gratitude for this moment, knowing that we have truly seen one another, walked together and can remain true till the end. There’s nothing else I want to add except to tell you all that you are loved and held so closely in my thoughts.
Hideaway, please do take the best care to return safely and soundly to your homestead and family.
Thank you, Rob for bringing out the best in all of us.
Love and hugs from Gaia xxoo
Now it is all making sense, the talk of Ketamines and Colac!
I feel comfortably numb but I am also so grateful for the comaraderie of brave souls who are not afraid to stare into the abyss nor paper over it with wish fulfilling fantasies. Other than this one final wish – the peace summit!
It is what it is, and thanks for all the fish indeed! I hope you get safely home to your homestead for the Summit too Hideaway, and I am gunning for Vlad to show up or Xi, as our best chance.
Thanks Rob for so much clarity under pressure. I am late to the Un-denial brotherhood of ‘nobodies’ but boy am I glad I found this motley crew.
Cue song – paqnation style – the final countdown