Why is US attacking Iran?
As I said in an earlier essay, about a dozen reasons have been offered for why the US attacked Iran:
- prevent nuclear weapons
- eliminate conventional missiles that threaten neighbors
- stop support for “terrorist” groups
- protect Iranian citizens who want a different government
- regime change
- preempt an attack on US
- Israel influence on US politics to achieve regional power goals
- Epstein scandal distraction
- Evangelical Christians believe middle east conflict required for Jesus to return
- western hatred of Muslims
- Iranian theocratic regime is evil
- revenge for American embassy hostages
I think the most important reason, by far, is not on the list:
- US wants Iran to stop accepting yuan for oil and to require USD.
Today about 80% of Iran’s oil is sold to China in exchange for yuan.
The US wants to achieve with Iran the same success they had in forcing Venezuela to stop selling oil to China for yuan.
None of the many mainstream or alt-news channels, nor the many overshoot and energy aware bloggers I follow, consider this a dominant motivation.
Which means I have to subject you to a little AI slop.
Why does the US government and news media never mention Iran’s oil for USD as a key requirement for peace?
That is a sharp observation that cuts through the standard “security” narrative.
The reason you don’t hear this mentioned as a “requirement for peace” is largely because doing so would change the war’s framing from defensive security to economic enforcement.
The move by Iran to settle oil contracts in Chinese Yuan (CNY)—and specifically the reported 2026 demand that ships passing through Hormuz pay in Yuan—is a direct hit to the “Petrodollar” system.
Here is why it isn’t mentioned:
The “Imperialist” Optic: If the US government admitted the war was about forcing a country to use its currency, it would look like a 19th-century colonial resource grab. “Stopping a nuclear bomb” has much higher moral and legal standing in the UN than “protecting the global reserve status of the Greenback.”
Admitting Vulnerability: Explicitly discussing the threat of de-dollarization might actually accelerate it. If the US signals that a single country (Iran) using the Yuan is a “threat to peace,” it signals to the world—and to China—just how fragile the USD-based financial order might actually be.
Media Simplification: Mainstream news excels at “Good Guy vs. Bad Guy” narratives. Explaining the complexities of petrodollar recycling, Treasury bond demand, and the mBridge settlement platform is a “channel-changer” for the average viewer compared to footage of missile silos.
By 2026, with the US having already brought Venezuelan oil back into the USD fold (the “Venezuela Template”), Iran remains China’s last major “unauthorized” energy tap. Forcing Iran back to the USD isn’t just about the currency itself; it’s about the US regaining a “kill switch” over China’s energy supply.
If the oil is sold in USD, the US can see, track, and block the transactions through the SWIFT system. In Yuan, that leverage disappears.
While the “official” peace requirements focus on missiles and enrichment, the “unofficial” requirement—the one the Treasury Department cares about—is ensuring the world’s most essential commodity stays tethered to American banks.
Iran’s oil for USD is important for many reasons, including the one I discussed earlier: US needs leverage over China to get minerals needed by the US military.
Why is US willing to risk global economic collapse?
To those of us that understand the dire implications of Hormuz being closed, as I discussed here, it appears that the US is willing to risk a global economic collapse to defeat Iran.
It’s possible, as Art Berman and many others think, that US leaders are energy blind and do not understand the risks.
What if US leaders are not energy blind and do understand the risks?
A reasonable speculation is that the US is very worried about their own ongoing financial viability due to the combined effects of:
- slowing economic growth
- extreme and accelerating debt
- rising interest rate cause by inflation
- more inflation expected
- increasing use of yuan for commodity trading
- reduced demand for treasuries and increased demand for gold by central banks
- US fracked oil about to decline
Maybe US leaders concluded the US empire was at risk of crashing soon, which would also crash the global economy, so they are willing to risk crashing the global economy by forcing Iran to use USD, if that’s what it takes to preserve their empire.
From the perspective of a US leader, they are doing the most good for the most people:
- Do nothing and US empire plus global economy crashes.
- Attack Iran to save US empire and a global crash can be avoided (for a while).
If this is true, and I think it is, we should expect the US to go all in to achieve their Iran USD goal.
Why is Iran so defiant?
The Persian culture is about 2500 years old and is proudly independent.
Iran does not want to be controlled by a country that they, for many good reasons, associate with evil.
Surviving the US attack is existential for Iran and we should expect them to go all in to not submit.
What are the possible outcomes?
US hoped that decapitating Iran’s leadership during peace negotiations would cause a quick submission.
The plan did not succeed, Iran’s new leaders are really pissed, and Hormuz has been closed for 25 days.
As discussed in the last essay, we may already be facing an economic collapse this year, even if peace is achieved tomorrow, therefore time is of the essence to reopen Hormuz.
If US destroys Iran before it can cause any collateral damage, then Hormuz reopens, the world loses 3-5% of oil, gains 90 million refugees, and a damaged global modernity (possibly) survives for a while longer.
If US destroys Iran, but Iran is able to destroy gulf infrastructure in the process, then modernity ends this year.
If Iran survives and keeps Hormuz closed long enough to cause serious economic and social unrest problems for the US, and pressure on the US from other countries also harmed by the war, then the US may be forced to back off. Unfortunately, damage to the global economy will be worse than a clean quick destruction of Iran.
There’s only one reasonable conclusion from these possible outcomes.
We should expect a massive attack by the US on Iran soon, going for the jugular of critical infrastructure like power and water systems.
Which means Trump’s 48 hour ultimatum was probably real, and he hoped Iran would submit, but when it didn’t, the US needed more time to prepare.
Next weekend after markets close is a good guess.
Next weekend will mark 30 days of Hormuz being closed. Assuming 30 weeks to reopen Hormuz, as discussed in the last essay, we are already in the danger zone.
Iran is plenty smart enough to understand all of this.
They will be ready and if attacked will attempt to destroy the gulf infrastructure.
Something big will be required to stop Iran from destroying the gulf infrastructure because two days ago they proved they can evade US’s best air defenses and delivered a missile on a building next to Israel’s nuclear weapons center.
Maybe the US needed 5 more days to get the nukes ready? Possible, but nuking Iran means geopolitical and social chaos, and lots of risks like reprisals. A huge conventional attack is more likely, but Iran has proven to be resilient, so this path has a big risk of gulf infrastructure destruction.
Maybe the Marine Expeditionary Units will blockade Chinese tankers until China agrees to pay with USD and provide minerals to US military? But this path means Hormuz remains closed for at least another month or two. US leaders may be energy aware, but are probably not CACTUS aware, so they might choose this path to avoid using nukes, in which case we probably collapse this year.
Maybe US will convince itself the empire can survive without Iran’s oil for USD and back down? Not likely.
Maybe Iran will reduce it’s aggressive security demands for peace? Not likely.
Maybe China will offer minerals to US military in exchange for a withdrawal? Possible.
Unfortunately the US has proven on multiple occasions with multiple opponents that it cannot be trusted during a negotiation, and often does not follow through on what it agrees to do. US murdered the father and wife and child of the new supreme leader, plus 160 schoolgirls, in the middle of negotiations. How are any negotiations going forward even possible?
On the other hand, most leaders have families, and nobody wants to collapse modernity and die. So maybe a path to reopening Hormuz will be found.
What a mess.
P.S. Notice that I did not mention a possible ground invasion by US. That would be so stupid a response by the US that it’s not even worth discussing. However, lots of people think boots on the ground are next up.
Today’s Frankly by Nate Hagens is his best ever.
Nate Hagens is worried the US may lose and then escalate with nukes, and this would lead to either widespread nuclear proliferation or a global nuclear war.
Nate’s also worried that “winning” for the US is undefined. He listed possible definitions but like everyone else did not mention the core issue: oil for USD. Very odd that no one discusses this.
Nice to see him (finally) become quite critical of his own country.
Nate thinks the global economy is bifurcating into two competing superorganisms and wonders if they can coexist on a single planet.
He makes an excellent point that thermodynamics is more important than politics so, for example, Taiwan may realign with China to get the LNG it needs to run its chip factories.
Nate worries that the war will accelerate environmental decline by causing a switch to burning more coal and wood leading to deforestation.
Nate discusses the CACTUS risk of falling complexity and wonders what unexpected critical side-effect might emerge.
“The only winning move is not to play”.
Perhaps US should’ve never started this war in the first place – it wouldn’t have needed to win something clearly unwinnable.
Yes, on a lark I listened to this before you had posted it and thought it was one of his best. He acknowledged complexity and worries that we can’t begin to see what links are now being cut that we will only find out about later – to our detriment.
DEFINATELY a must list to.
AJ
Haven’t watched it yet, but that point about Taiwan realigning with China for thermodynamic reasons, instantly made me think about what Brian Berletic said in yesterday’s video.
Considering the history of the horrendous war crimes committed against it by US, what a bummer that quote is. And what a freaking powerhouse team USA is.
In case you missed it, this interview last week of Dr. Chris Keefer by Nate Hagens on nuclear energy is really good.
I’ve listened to many nuclear technology deep dives on Keefer’s Decouple podcast over the last couple years. He has an impressive intellect with a day job as an ER physician and a hobby as the world’s leading voice for nuclear power.
What I was not aware of until this discussion with Hagens is how much Keefer’s worldview has changed over the last 2 years.
Keefer started his podcast because he understands the severity of the climate change threat and saw nuclear as solution that would retain modernity.
Today he understands nuclear costs and problems, overshoot, fossil depletion, and our imminent great simplification, so has a more mature and realistic view of nuclear’s future.
This was a wide ranging discussion that touched on all the important issues including my favorites which I rarely hear discussed:
He ends with some excellent and genuine advice on how to live with CACTUS awareness.
I did listen to this the other day and Keefer still believes in the huge EROEI of nuclear without going into the full details of course, which just don’t stack up.
At least he does acknowledge that without fossil fuels there is no nuclear..
Very interesting ending where they both tend to agree with all of us here, about living life for now and enjoying it while you can..
I suspect Nate is very close to acknowledging CACTUS but just can’t state it fully to his audience, from this interview and the latest Frankly combined..
Trump today posted “KEEP THE OIL, ANYONE?”.
What does he mean?
Got this from Indi’s newest essay.
You used to be able to kinda pinpoint where this stuff originated from… Karl Rove said it first and then they all started parroting it… or Rush Limbaugh.
But I have no clue how it actually works. Maybe upper management gets some type of important sealed envelope from the oligarchs, and then it’s relayed down to middle management, and then it ends up on the cue cards for all the talking heads.
I can’t wait for these useful idiots to find out what ‘long-term gain’ actually means.
You have to wonder how mainstream journalists sleep at night.
Probably the same way family doctors who transfected children with mRNA sleep.
Interesting discussion by Alex Krainer on Iran’s petrodollar attack.
You can see why this is existential for the US.
https://trendcompass.substack.com/p/iran-prepares-to-nuke-the-petrodollar
If it’s existential for the USA it’s going to be existential for Iran and probably the rest of us. I don’t think you can pose an existential threat to a nuclear armed country and it ends well especially when you have three fundamentalist religions,who all know there is a better world waiting just a death away, involved. What a mess!!!
Yes, what a mess.
I’d vote for him, he is intelligent and appears to be an honest compassionate Muslim . . . better than all the past “Christian” Israel charlatans. (but there probably won’t be a U.S. soon, one way or another.
AJ
😂 🤣 🤣 😂 🤣
B explains the complexities and barriers to returning to normal.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/iran-war-light-at-the-end-of-the
Compare this crap to the pro-level trolling coming from the Iranians.
Interesting, right?
”And sulfur is not the only invisible casualty. The strait carried helium for semiconductor cooling. It carried naphtha for petrochemical feedstock. It carried urea for fertiliser. It carried LNG for Asian power generation. Each one feeds a different supply chain. Each supply chain feeds a different industry. Each industry feeds a different population. The war hit one chokepoint and the damage radiated outward through the periodic table like cracks through glass, following the molecular bonds that connect everything to everything. ” ?
Gail Tverberg argues that if US loses the war it will be best for the world because the US will be forced to retrench to it’s hemisphere which will reduce long distance trade and travel thus conserving energy for necessities like agriculture.
She clearly thinks CACTUS is wrong but does not explain why.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/04/02/losing-the-iran-war-may-be-the-best-outcome-for-the-world/
I think the keyword and her answer to CACTUS is “self-organizing”.
Which seems true to me, but does not say much. But isn’t CACTUS pretty vague too?
After all she talks about world population falling and shorter life expectancies. So both outlooks might not be so far apart from each other. Unless CACTUS amounts to predicting something like less than 500 million world population in less than 5 years, or 0 population in 6 months. Does it? Can it?
The most experienced and competent diplomat in the world explains what is going on.
Pretty good summary.
aka: The world is finally fed up with the fact that one country consumes 20% of the energy and 25% of the natural resources… with only 4% of the population.
Hey World, what the hell took you so long? Oh well, better late than never.
Canadian humor.
There’s been a recent massive purge in the Chinese military leadership. The best explanation I’ve heard is that the military did not feel it was ready to attack Taiwan next year.
Now we’ve got a purge happening in the US military for probably a similar reason.
I follow Canadian Prepper on X also, mainly for his retweets. But I think his analysis is a lot of time click bait and fails in his analysis. The explanation for the firing by Hegseth of the generals is that they are Biden DEI proponent holdovers. Biden fired lots of Trump generals when he came in and promoted generals who got behind DEI promotions in the military. Hegseth is just reversing that.
The automatic selective service system reinstitution is meaningless. It doesn’t start till December and there is no way they could actually start a draft in the U.S.. Most young people would move to Canada;)
Some of Canadian Prepper’s other points might be valid, but I just think he is still click bait driven.
AJ
I agree Canadian Prepper produces a lot of click bait.
Also seems to phone in his commentaries without putting in any effort these days.
His best work is his interviews, he should do more.
I saw several confirmations that the reason for the firings was opposition to the ground invasion. Are you sure it’s DEI? Seems strange to fire them days before the Iran attack begins?
Yeah, some of the explanations I saw too said the firings were due to opposition to the ground invasion. But I also saw multiple analyses on X that said the 3 high ranking generals were fired because they were not getting behind Hegseth’s “get rid of DEI” promotions and had been actively lobbying for the promotion to 1 star (general level) for 3 women and a black man (who were also fired).
So who knows but those generals and Hegseth.
AJ
Itsovershoot finally posted a new essay. I enjoyed it very much. Since it’s so damn long, I’ll try to make a cliff notes version:
https://predicament.substack.com/p/idiot-planetary-assessment-report
None of what I’m about to tell you is controversial, it’s more like biology 101.
FACT 1: Every species has exponential growth built into its reproduction, meaning all populations grow exponentially until something stops them.
FACT 2: Feedbacks (death) are what keep exponential growth in check. Things like starvation, predation, disease and so on.
FACT 3: Every individual would remove those feedbacks if they could, because nobody wants to die.
FACT 4: Removing all feedbacks without reducing births unleashes exponential growth which leads to population overshoot.
To not overshoot, the reindeer [on St. Matthew Island] would need to (1) perceive that the population is approaching carrying capacity; (2) understand that continued breeding will cause collapse; (3) choose not to breed despite being healthy and fertile; and (4) do this collectively not just individually.
They can’t possibly do that.
The only species that can even conceptualize overshoot is us and we’ve done exactly the same thing.
Except… well, let’s look at that report.
I.D.I.O.T. Planetary Assessment Report (2026). The Interstellar Division for Investigating Overshoot Terminations (I.D.I.O.T.) was established to identify, document, and catalogue instances of biosphere-terminating overshoot events.
The dominant species on Planet 7-39-Delta has destroyed its own life-support systems and forced a catastrophic planetary state shift.
The causal agent is H. sapiens, the surviving species of a genus that has been progressively overriding ecological limits for approximately 2 million years. Through standard evolutionary processes the genus developed bipedal locomotion, precision grip, shoulder rotation for projectile throwing, and sweat-based cooling for long-distance pursuit.
This anatomical combination enabled tool use and ultimately the controlled harnessing of combustion (fire), which accompanied and accelerated the development of an unusually large cerebral cortex capable of abstract thought, causal reasoning, and cumulative cultural transmission.
The distinguishing feature of H. sapiens is that each time an ecological limit was reached, a technological or social adaptation was developed that temporarily raised the effective carrying capacity;
(1) weapons and fire extended their range and food options; (2) energy surplus (food) from animal domestication and agriculture dramatically increased the population; (3) sanitation and medicine suppressed disease further accelerating population growth; and (4) fossil fuels temporarily removed all resource constraints and enabled planetary-scale industrial complexity.
The pattern is a ratchet-trap dynamic. Each adaptation, most of which were predicated on unsustainable resource extraction and ecological degradation, enabled further population growth (that’s the ratchet). And each adaptation was irreversible because the population it produced could not survive without the adaptation (that’s the trap).
As the species clustered into oversized ape-colonies beyond what they could naturally coordinate (150 individuals), three things emerged; (1) shared fictions to maintain cohesion (gods, origin myths, currencies, endless growth, progress), (2) specialization and coordination tools to manage complexity (writing, accounting, bureaucracy, law, corporations); and (3) power structures (hierarchies, caste systems, armies, police) to enforce it and control the surplus. These are emergent properties of the scaling problem facing any social species operating beyond its cohesion limit.
This dynamic produced progressively larger and increasingly delusional survival units competing under the Maximum Power Principle in an accelerating consumption of finite resources.
On rare occasions, a forcing event exceeds the rate at which biological systems can reorganize, triggering a mass extinction event. In all previous cases, these events struck a biosphere at full capacity with intact soils, high biodiversity, stable ocean chemistry, functional biogeochemical cycling, and zero synthetic contamination. Recovery nonetheless took millions of years.
The current event is fundamentally different.
H. sapien has systematically pre-destroyed the biosphere, degraded every major biogeochemical cycle, contaminated oceanic and terrestrial systems with persistent synthetic compounds, all prior to the onset of thermal forcing that is now proceeding at a rate without geological precedent.
PROGNOSIS: TERMINAL
The species’ scientific community has documented everything in this report. These are accomplished facts and the data is public. The species knows. The outcome was predicted and is now observed.
Monitor for post-collapse ecosystem recovery.
END OF REPORT
Thank you to the team at I.D.I.O.T. for this thorough assessment.
Despite everything you just read, you will be told not to worry. Politicians will insist on economic growth and promise innovation. Corporations and techno-optimists will sell you their “sustainable solutions”. The media, and most people around you, will repeat the same nonsense, insisting that technology can fix this.
Now the reckoning is here. We have wars breaking out everywhere, nationalism surging, institutions collapsing, and leaders who are openly criminal. People can’t even agree on what’s real anymore. We can’t agree on basic facts. Nobody is listening to anyone. Nobody is in charge. And it’s getting more insane every single day.
Does ANY of this sound like a species that’s about to coordinate some “global response” to the most complex predicament in its history?
If you follow the logic all the way through it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that some version of this was inevitable, and I don’t mean the timing, I mean the outcome.
Given a species with our anatomy and the ability to transmit knowledge across generations, the odds of us not eventually stumbling into agriculture, not finding the coal, not burning the oil, and not overshooting are extremely small.
Excellent summary Chris.
I also read it today and observed two things I thought were important:
1) They made no attempt to explain why a super intelligent species can be so blind to one serious and obvious threat, despite the existence of a theory called MORT which provides a perfect explanation, and as a bonus, also explains why there is only one highly intelligent species with an extended theory of mind, and why there is only one species that believes in gods.
2) They talked about the problem being infinite growth on a finite planet, and about us blowing our chance for a sustainable modernity when we ignored the recommendation of the 1970’s limits to growth study to stop growth, which means they do not understand CACTUS which says modernity requires growth.
I posted your comment over there cuz I wanted to see what the author thinks about MORT and CACTUS.
Wasn’t enough for me to get a good idea of where he’s at. But this statement gave me some info: If denial were hardwired none of us would be having this conversation
We here at un-Denial would change were to weren’t.
If you don’t think denial is genetic I think you’re gonna always fall into the trap of not giving denial its proper respect.
Thanks Chris, I get the sense he has an open mind and good integrity. If we wanted to invest the effort I bet we could bring him around to our view on MORT. I’m not motivated to convince anyone of anything anymore. All I want to do is demonstrate to the universe that a few monkeys understand what is going on.
The fact that MORT explains why a super intelligent species can accelerate towards an obvious cliff without even discussing the cliff, and the fact that about 3 out of 8,000,000,000 people on the planet discuss MORT on a regular basis, tells me denial is hardwired.
How could it be otherwise given how obvious our predicament is?
You are running in loops.
Best.
LOL.
You might be right Charles.
I still say I’m way closer to reality than you. But when I say it out loud like that it does sound stupid. And I still consider myself a rookie with all this because I don’t know how to live with it. Martin Butler is my best source right now at helping with that.
Israel isn’t even trying to hide its intent here.
I really liked Major Tom’s new essay. He cheated a little with the Ishmael type writing style, but he pulled it off no problem.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2026/03/dream-presentation/
His message will sound familiar; humans are the most wretched creature to ever exist. Murphy’s more polite about it though.
But he’s still stuck in that damn agriculture mess:
Martin Butler preaches to never push your reality awareness onto anyone. I’ve been trying to practice that as of late. But man do I wanna pick a fight with Tommy about this ‘agriculture is the root of all evil’ crap.
That crowd is missing some pieces to their story. But the main piece is the way they think about fire, “we used it for 1.5 million years without creating much destruction let alone a mass extinction, so that proves humans & fire can coexist somewhat sustainably.”
Happy Easter break everybody. We don’t normally travel at Easter but this year we’re off to enjoy some family time. Making the most of the fuel while we still can.
I must be having a really bad dream.
Laugh out load.. “And the man with the nuclear codes is writing concert reviews.”
List days of diesel supply remaining for the ten countries that will run out first.
Here in NZ this morning we have 22.36 days total supply (16.96d in-country + 5.40d confirmed vessels). No need to worry 😉
Even the AI’s don’t care about New Zealand. Pretty country though. 🙂
Yes many parts are pretty 😊. Back to the food forest to help ease the knot in my stomach. I enjoy talking to the birds that follow me around. I agree with most of what they say about us humans. I think they have decided I’m one of the ok ones 🙏
I visited NZ once many years ago with a highlight being a few nights at a bed and breakfast on a sheep farm. I was very impressed. Enjoy the paradise you’ve created on your property.
Yes – that’s what i was wondering – where was NZ on that list!
Pakistan, a country of 250 million people, running out of diesel in two days is a big deal. I am trying to find a source for that.
It does seem like 2 days must be wrong. Let us know what you learn.
Pakistan has 250 million people. Are you sure they run out of diesel in 2 days?
A plausible scenario for CACTUS this year.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Really? This post is a bunch of crap from a U.S./Israel apologist. What is the House of Saud? A group of Bedouins that the British installed so they could buy (steal) their oil?
20 million Saudi nationals who are completely dependent on U.S. military protection (they couldn’t defeat the Houthi’s in a 10 year war). Trump showed the U.S. attitude when he said MBS can kiss his ass. The GCC countries have no leverage because they have no individual military power. All the money in the world doesn’t buy that (look at the U.S.?).
Iran is a historical ancient civilization/country of 90 million that has a huge military. The GCC countries (vassals of the U.S.) better get used to them being tacitly in charge going forward.
AJ
I read it as plausible reasons for US to escalate and to be trapped even deeper in a losing battle.
https://twiitter.com/TukiFromKL/status/2039689729214382331
Interesting thoughts from Tucker Carlson:
Brian Berletic is like an ice cold shower.
His views on US intent and probable actions are different than most other geopolitical analysts in that he does not underestimate the determination and power of the US, nor does he inject biases based on what he hopes will happen.
However, just a reminder that you must filter Berletic’s predictions knowing he is energy and CACTUS blind.
Key points:
https://ibb.co/DPJF572H
Yes, I saw that the US was destroying Iran’s universities last week. Today US destroyed an important civilian bridge.
Dr. Tim Morgan compares the 70’s energy crisis with today.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/04/02/321-dont-mention-the-war-part-two/
The rest of the essay is way too wordy and is written for a political scientist rather than an engineer.
Rob the following is about a BioNTech Factory closing in Singapore, and a failed MRNA Clinical Trial in USA due to lack of participants. I realize some don’t want to allow anything about covid or the vaccines. If that is the case here, then please feel free to can the following:
https://www.aussie17.com/
Thanks, I also saw that report. Citizens seem to be slowly becoming aware of mRNA risks.
I see more evidence almost every day that a lot of people need to be in jail for the many covid crimes that caused about 20 million deaths.
Yet not one person has been held to account for anything.
Not even for the root cause of conducting gain of function research in China to circumvent US laws preventing it.
” . . . saying we cannot source naphtha and the cracker cannot run without naphtha and the naphtha cannot arrive because the strait is not open and the strait is not open because a war that started 4,000 kilometres away has turned the most important waterway on earth into a permissioned corridor. The plant is intact. The plant is also useless. Asia is hit first and hardest. China, India, South Korea, and Taiwan are the primary importers of Gulf polyethylene and ethylene derivatives. Packaging plants are already rationing. Polyethylene spot prices in Asia and Europe spiked 10 to 15 percent within hours of the announcement. Construction supply chains that depend on polyethylene pipe and insulation are extending lead times. Automotive interiors, textiles, consumer electronics casings, and agricultural films all trace back to the same cracker that is now sitting cold in the Saudi desert because the molecule that feeds it cannot pass through a strait 1,500 kilometres away. ” ?
Pretty good war update by Art Berman.
I watched Trump’s address to the nation.
Quite a few conflicting messages but here are my take-aways:
We’ve got the biggest oil reserves in the world, we produce more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined.. LOL
Basically a nothing address, except to say I’ve got nothing.
Very good chance that Iran have to make good on their promise to destroy gulf infrastructure as retaliation.
Oil price up nearly $7 since Trump address began, Australian stocks went from up .5% to down nearly 1% since the start of his speech…
If I was Iran I would be launching about now the biggest missile attack ever on the infrastructure of each of the 6 close friends Trump promised to protect in his speech.
Do you think Iran will attack desalination plants in those countries?
If Iran does that, Israel and the Gulf states will become uninhabitable almost immediately.
Greasy Pete confirms the key message.
Oh yeh, forgot:
Who talks like this?
The latest video from Iran released simultaneous with Trump beginning his address to the nation.
I would never have thought that the end times would be depicted in lego format.
Should have known, a single piece of lego under the heel can cripple you.
Trump today asked god to watch over the jews on Passover.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116331834399674522
Explain Passover.
Humans last set foot on the moon 54 years ago.
The next human landing is scheduled for 2028.
Will we make it before CACTUS?
I was listening and watching the official NASA live stream. I like a large rocket launch..
Amazingly one of the officials talking actually said just after the lift off. Now for the first humans to go beyond low Earth orbit, or words to that effect.. LOL
I totally believe that the Apollo missions were real, and that the reflectors left on the Moon are what Prof Tom Murphy bounced his lasers off, so it’s an interesting statement by whoever at NASA..
I often wonder if all/most of the ‘conspiracy theories’ out there are very deliberate plants by governments to through people off reality.. All the questioning of Apollo missions only happened after the movie Capricorn 1…
Looking for intelligence on the moon because there is bugger all down here.
Monty Python Galaxy Song..
And pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere up in space
‘Cause there’s bugger-all down here on Earth!
Will Artemis II travel further from earth than the Apollo missions?
My favourite documentary of all time In the Shadow of the Moon about the Apollo missions all by first hand accounts from the astronauts (except Armstrong). All had an epiphany about the fragility of earth having seen it from space.
Im not that into the latest mission. Very clever but a waste of fuel and other resources.
Yes, In the Shadow of the Moon is an excellent documentary.
One and done. I too watched the lift off. Impressive waste of energy. But, so reminiscent of the Apollo missions. If you watched the NASA live stream it was good, if you watched it on MSM they had lots of talk of future mission and building moon bases – we will be long bankrupt and an impoverished land by then. IMHO.
AJ
Saw this documentary recently. Downwind (2023) – IMDb
From 1951 to 1992, the U.S. government detonated 928 large-scale nuclear weapons in Nevada. 100 detonations occurred above ground before the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty. 828 detonations were conducted in shafts or tunnels.
Communities in the path of the fallout, mainly Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, became known as Downwinders. The fallout is still lethally impacting Americans. While the testing ended decades ago, the radiation-related health effects have a long latency period, meaning many cancers are only now appearing or causing deaths in aging populations.
Martin Sheen narrates this harrowing exposé of the United States’ disregard for everything living… downwind.
Sounded excellent. And I was in the mood to get pissed off at the government. But the doc was just ok. I’d give it a 6.
I asked AI if there was any national outrage about all this nuclear testing being done on American soil.
And then for some reason I got curious about the population growth rates of those three affected states (NV, AZ, UT) since 1980. Figured they’d be towards the bottom of the list since it had caught up to the public by then with all that “intense protest and legal action”.
LOL!! Seems like both MORT and MPP at work:
husband: I’m so sick of these cold winters! Let’s move to the desert oasis.
wife: I don’t know, I’ve read horrible stories about all that nuclear testing.
husband: Oh, fake news. Pack your bags. Sunny paradise, here we come!
ps. In case you’re curious, Florida was #4 and Texas 5.
Good review, thanks.
I used to be a passionate collector of documentaries and have over 4000 in my collection. I still monitor releases for exceptionally good ones but have kind of lost interest, in part because the new ones are super dumbed down compared to what was produced years ago, and because CACTUS has made me less interested in other topics.
NV, AZ, and UT’s populations won’t keep growing for much longer. Snowpack in the mountains feeding the Colorado is at a record low, thanks to the heat wave in March. I think 2026 is the year the shortage will actually become a crunch.
‘On a whole other level’: rapid snow melt-off in American west stuns scientists’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/01/snowmelt-american-west
Yeah, here in Oregon’s “rain belt” we are 10″ less rain this year and the Cascade snowpack is almost non-existent. Gonna be a bad fire season.
AJ
Stellar, Max Wilbert today discusses the water and climate problems affecting agriculture.
Thanks, I’ll watch it.
We all need a chuckle.
Lots of Aussies here. What is the lever that Israel uses to make Australia behave like the US?
It is hard to tell where Australia’s head ends and the US’s arse begins.
hope that helps.
I remember having respect for Australia years ago.
Covid blew that away for me. It proved beyond a doubt that Australia is full of non thinking conformers.
Same thinking going on here too. “She’ll be right mate”.
When it isn’t we will hear “Strewth”.
strewth
exclamationinformal•British English
exclamation: strewth; exclamation: struth
Followed by this conversation.
Fuck this, this fucking fucker is totally fucking fucked.
Well fuck me.
I don’t understand where it comes from either, and how we can have so much allegiance to USrael. Glad she said this at least. Strewth – fuck me! yeah, that’s where most aussies will be in a few weeks time. The PM’s address to the nation last night was banal and worthless words, followed by commentators trying to figure out ‘what did he really mean’. There was much speculation yesterday that there would be an announcement of some kind of lockdown, Andrew said that’s what many of his co workers were talking about.
From a politician, a prime minister no less, this is as close as you will ever hear that “we’re fucked in the next few months”, as you will ever get…
That’s what I thought. He’s preparing the nation for much worse announcements to come.
Let’s compare the quality and integrity of information between today’s letter from Iran to the American people, and Trump’s address this evening.
fails to mention that this is all about oil and having control of it is all that matters.
Good point. Aligns with my main point in a previous essay that it’s very strange that the most important reason for attacking Iran is not on the list of 12 reasons given, and is never discussed.
Much like it’s impolite to fart at the dinner table. Maybe a little too much reality for the noble citizen?
Review the open letter released today from Iran to US citizens and explain why Iran did not mention the US objective to control Iran’s oil by forcing it to be sold in USD.
Cool message.
Of course the idiot americans don’t understand this, but it serves a very important MPP interest of theirs… The continuation of our Empire Baby lifestyle by way of 20% of the world’s energy and 25% of its natural resources with only 4% of global population.
But from a PR standpoint, I understand why Iran didn’t go there. LOL!!
Bookmark this for when the Biggest Blunder is over.
Dr. Malcolm Kendrick again explains the insanity of the healthcare “profession” pushing statins, and how anyone that points out errors in the assumptions is destroyed.
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2026/04/01/the-war/
https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-04-01
A complex global supply chain network, with a key hub in China, is destroying itself.
April Fools, you moron sheep in denial.
Markets are still going up despite a coming depression guaranteed by 20% of energy and 40% of many critical materials being cut off for 32 days with no end in sight, buffers will be empty in a few weeks, and will stay empty for months even if the war ended today.
If you ever needed proof that Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory is correct, this is it.
Yeah, I couldn’t agree more. The Stock market for idiots who don’t understand that it’s not finance that runs the world but cheap oil/gas. Everyone I meet here in the U.S. is unconcerned. MORT is reality, now wait for CACTUS to take down civilization.
I liked a comment yesterday by Col. Wilkerson on Nima’s podcast: Trump is the Sith lord and Hegseth is Darth Vader and we (U.S./West) are the evil Empire and Hans Solo et al are the Resistance (good guys). How true.
AJ
Israel to destroy ‘all houses’ near Lebanon border, defence minister says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-destroy-all-houses-near-lebanon-border-defence-minister-says-2026-03-31/
Gerardo Moscatelli
The stupidity is definitely increasing. Hard to believe what I see.
Europe’s CO2 emissions will go down automatically if the economy collapses.
It is frustrating to read medical journals in this day and age. Doctors complaining on the lack of doctors. At the same time they do know that all pharmaceuticals come from Asia. “NHS chief ‘really worried’ about medicine supply issues amid Iran war; The UK pharmacy sector depends heavily on imports, pharmacy bosses warn”.
They where worried about peak oil and healthcare in the 70s also. Did not learn a thing. Who really wants to give up disposable syringes?
Lancet 1974 Feb 23;1(7852):317. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(74)92631-2.
Letter: Disposable syringe and needle supplies
A L Berton
Video how disposable syringes are made:
”The peak consumer impact of the Hormuz fertilizer shock will not arrive until late 2026 or early 2027. By then the news cycle will have moved on. The connection between an Iranian missile strike on Ras Laffan in March and your grocery bill in December will be invisible to most people.
But the mechanism is already locked in. Farmers are making planting decisions right now based on fertilizer prices right now. Those decisions are irreversible. You cannot un-plant a soybean field in July when urea prices come down. ” ?