The Goal Leads to CACTUS

The US goal was to control Venezuela’s and Iran’s oil as leverage to force China at the March 31 Trump/Xi summit to supply rare earth minerals that are required by the US military to function.

Plan A failed.

Venezuela’s oil is not enough leverage by itself.

Iran survived the US attack and has lit a fuse on a global bomb by closing Hormuz to all traffic except friends like China.

The US needs time to regroup and has indicated the summit may be delayed.

Plan B is the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) that has been sent to the gulf and should arrive in 7-10 days.

The MEU does not have the tools to reopen Hormuz, or to invade Iran, but does have the perfect tools for seizing or destroying tankers bound for China.

Since US allies refused to help reopen Hormuz, and probably don’t have the ability even if they tried, the US has a new goal to use the MEU to block China’s oil with an offer to unblock if China asks its friend to reopen Hormuz for all traffic.

This creates a complex negotiation.

Provide rare earth minerals needed by a military that plans to attack you, plus the oil your enemies need to not collapse and will use to attack you, in exchange for the oil needed to prevent your own collapse.

None of our best overshoot intellectuals for the last 50 years figured out Hideaway’s CACTUS theory, therefore it’s probable that neither US nor Chinese planners understand CACTUS, which means they will be gaming out the complex negotiation wondering who will be the last man standing, not realizing that energy shortages will trigger a Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System (CACTUS), and the whole world may go down, permanently.

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

340 Comments

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 1:25 pm

What is significance of Ras Laffan refinery?

The Ras Laffan Refinery (specifically the Qatargas-operated Laffan Refinery 1 and 2) is a cornerstone of Qatar’s energy strategy and one of the largest condensate splitter facilities in the world. Its significance lies in its role in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain and Qatar’s domestic economic diversification.
1. Processing North Field Condensates
The refinery was specifically designed to process condensate, a light oil that is a byproduct of natural gas production from Qatar’s massive North Field.
Instead of exporting all raw condensate, the refinery converts it into higher-value refined products like naphtha, jet fuel (Jet A-1), gas oil, and LPG.
Capacity: Combined, Laffan Refinery 1 (LR1) and Laffan Refinery 2 (LR2) have a total processing capacity of approximately 292,000 barrels per day.
2. Global Maritime and Aviation Hub
The refinery plays a critical role in the logistics of global transport:
Jet Fuel: It produces significant volumes of high-quality jet fuel, much of which supplies the rapid expansion of Qatar Airways and operations at Hamad International Airport.
Low-Sulfur Diesel: It was built to meet stringent environmental standards (Euro 5), making its exports highly competitive in international markets with strict emissions regulations.
3. Economic Diversification (Qatar National Vision 2030)
By capturing the full value chain of its gas resources, Qatar uses Ras Laffan to shift from being a “raw material exporter” to a “refined product provider.”
Naphtha Production: The naphtha produced serves as a vital feedstock for the local petrochemical industry, which creates plastics and other chemicals.
Self-Sufficiency: The facility ensures that Qatar remains self-sufficient in several refined products despite its massive industrial growth.
4. Strategic Integration
Located within Ras Laffan Industrial City, the refinery is integrated with the world’s largest LNG export terminal. This proximity minimizes transport costs and allows for real-time adjustments based on the output of the North Field gas expansion projects.

NASA FIRMS shows fires currently ongoing at the Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar. pic.twitter.com/Cbb39xmHvj

— ayden (@squatsons) March 18, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 1:57 pm

Very, very bad news.
As I wrote in Material World, Ras Laffan is one of the most important industrial sites not just in the Gulf but in the world. LNG, helium, other products. Massive.
Whatever happens next, serious damage to this site could reverberate for months, maybe years. https://t.co/72PGcL66IM

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) March 18, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 2:00 pm

https://twitter.com/IranMilitaryEN/status/2034368872699080901

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:14 pm

Is US government having any difficulty in funding its deficit?

As of March 2026, the U.S. government is facing a complex and increasingly strained environment for funding its deficit. While the Treasury has not yet hit a “wall” where it cannot find buyers, the “ease” of borrowing that characterized the last decade has largely vanished.
The current situation is defined by a “supply-demand mismatch” that is driving up the cost of borrowing and creating notable market volatility.
1. Weakening Demand at Auctions
Recent Treasury auctions—the primary way the government sells its debt—have shown signs of fatigue.
Low Bid-to-Cover Ratios: In mid-March 2026, the 10-year Treasury auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio of just 2.3, a level that analysts consider “weak.” This indicates that there are fewer buyers for every dollar of debt the government is trying to sell.
Price-Sensitive Buyers: Historically, “price-insensitive” buyers like the Federal Reserve (via Quantitative Easing) and foreign central banks provided a reliable floor for demand. With the Fed now in a “higher-for-longer” stance and foreign banks like the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) diversifying away from U.S. debt, the Treasury must now rely on private investors who demand higher interest rates (yields) to take on the risk.
2. Rising Costs of Debt Service
The fiscal burden of the deficit is becoming more visible in the federal budget.
Interest as a Major Line Item: Interest payments on the national debt now consume approximately 13% to 14% of the entire federal budget. In February 2026 alone, the government spent $520 billion just to maintain existing debt.
The “Term Premia” Spike: Investors are now demanding an extra “term premium”—essentially a surcharge for the risk of holding long-term debt (10 and 30 years) while the government’s total debt approaches $39 trillion.
3. Strategic “Overfunding” vs. Future Shortfalls
The Treasury is currently walking a tightrope with its issuance strategy:
Current Status: Treasury officials have stated they will keep auction sizes steady for now, as they are technically “slightly overfunded” for the 2026 fiscal year due to higher-than-expected tax receipts from new tariffs.
The 2027 Cliff: However, primary dealers are already flagging a $1.1 trillion funding shortfall expected to hit in late 2026 and 2027, which will likely force the government to significantly increase the amount of debt it auctions, potentially pushing interest rates even higher.
4. Macro-Economic Headwinds (Stagflation)
New data released today (March 18, 2026) shows wholesale inflation jumping 0.7%, the largest increase in seven months. This “stagflation” scare (high inflation + slowing growth) is the worst-case scenario for deficit funding because:
Inflation makes fixed-income bonds less attractive.
Slowing growth reduces the tax revenue needed to pay down the debt.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:16 pm

How does oil sold for yuan affect this?

The transition of oil trade to the Chinese yuan (the “Petroyuan”) acts as a direct challenge to the mechanism the U.S. uses to fund its deficit. While it isn’t causing an immediate collapse, it is creating a “slow leak” in the demand for U.S. debt.
Here is how the shift specifically impacts the U.S. government’s ability to borrow:
1. The Breakdown of “Petrodollar Recycling”
For decades, the U.S. benefited from a “virtuous cycle”:
The Old System: Oil was priced exclusively in dollars. Oil-exporting nations (like Saudi Arabia or Kuwait) ended up with massive surpluses of USD. Since they couldn’t spend it all at once, they “recycled” those dollars back into the U.S. by buying Treasury bonds.
The Impact of Yuan: When Iran or Saudi Arabia accepts yuan for oil, that surplus stays in the Chinese financial system or is used to buy Chinese goods. This means billions of dollars that used to automatically flow into U.S. government debt are now staying in the East.
2. Reduced “Structural” Demand for Dollars
If a country needs to buy oil, they must first buy dollars. This creates a global “baseline” demand for the USD regardless of how well the U.S. economy is doing.
Marginal Decline: As more commodities (oil, gas, and even minerals like cobalt) move to yuan settlement, central banks no longer need to hold such massive “rainy day” stockpiles of U.S. dollars.
Deficit Funding: If central banks hold fewer dollars, they buy fewer Treasuries. This forces the U.S. Treasury to offer higher interest rates to attract private investors to fill the gap, making the deficit even more expensive to maintain.
3. Iran’s “Yuan-for-Passage” Strategy (March 2026)
In the last 72 hours, reports have emerged that Iran is considering a radical move: permitting only yuan-settled tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. * Financial Warfare: This is effectively an attempt to “weaponize” the current war to force de-dollarization.
Immediate Stress: If major buyers (like India or Japan) are forced to use yuan to get oil through the Strait, it would cause a sudden spike in yuan demand and a corresponding drop in dollar utility, potentially triggering a sell-off in U.S. short-term debt.
4. The “Safe Haven” Counter-Effect
Ironically, during the current Iran war, the dollar has actually strengthened temporarily.
War Premium: Because the U.S. is an energy producer and seen as a military “safe haven,” capital often flies into the dollar during the early stages of a Middle East conflict.
The Conflict: This creates a tug-of-war. The short-term safe-haven status helps the U.S. fund its deficit now, but the long-term shift to the petroyuan undermines the structural foundation of that funding.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:20 pm

What leverage does US have over China to obtain minerals needed by US military?

In the current 2026 geopolitical landscape, the leverage between the U.S. and China regarding critical minerals—specifically those used in missile guidance (neodymium), fighter jets (samarium), and radar—is a “balance of vulnerabilities.”
While China currently holds the “chokehold” on processing, the U.S. is leveraging its dominance in high-end technology and its newly aggressive industrial policy to fight back.
1. The “Chip-for-Minerals” Barter (Active Leverage)
The U.S. is using its monopoly on high-end AI and semiconductor technology as a direct bargaining chip.
The “H200” Strategy: In late 2025 and early 2026, the Trump administration shifted from a total ban to a “revenue-share” model. The U.S. now allows the export of advanced chips (like the Nvidia H200) to approved Chinese customers in exchange for 25% of the revenue and, crucially, informal guarantees on rare earth supply stability.
The Threat of Escalation: If China throttles mineral exports, the U.S. can instantly revert to a “presumption of denial” for all advanced computing exports, potentially crippling China’s domestic AI and data center ambitions.
2. Building a “Parallel Ecosystem” (FORGE & Project Vault)
The U.S. is moving to strip China of its “sole supplier” status by creating a Western-aligned market that China cannot easily penetrate.
FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement): Launched in February 2026 with 54 countries, this initiative establishes price floors for minerals. This prevents China from “dumping” cheap minerals to put Western mines out of business—a tactic Beijing used effectively for decades.
Project Vault: A $12 billion strategic reserve designed to shield the U.S. military and private sector from sudden Chinese export bans. By stockpiling two months’ worth of critical supply, the U.S. reduces the “shock value” of any Chinese embargo.
3. Diplomatic Encirclement of “Upstream” Assets
The U.S. is using its financial and military weight to secure minerals at the source before they ever reach Chinese refineries.
Bilateral “Mini-Deals”: In the last 60 days, the U.S. has signed major frameworks with Argentina (lithium), Indonesia (nickel), and Vietnam.
The Indonesia Example: In March 2026, the U.S. lowered tariffs on Indonesian goods in exchange for “priority access” to their mineral wealth, effectively outbidding Chinese state-owned firms that previously dominated the region.
4. Technology “Leapfrogging”
The U.S. is using its R&D lead to make Chinese minerals obsolete in future weapons systems.
Rare-Earth-Free Magnets: The Department of War is fast-tracking the deployment of next-generation motors and guidance systems that use synthetic alternatives or reduced-content magnets.
Secondary Recovery: New 2026 regulations mandate “waste-based recovery,” forcing U.S. defense contractors to extract minerals from old electronics and mine tailings, creating a “closed-loop” supply that China cannot touch.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:25 pm

Explain implications of China capturing Taiwan’s chip factories.

The prospect of China capturing Taiwan’s semiconductor fabs—specifically those owned by TSMC—is often described as the “most devastating economic shock of the modern era.” However, current 2026 intelligence and technical reality suggest that China would likely capture a “graveyard of silicon” rather than a functional tech empire.
The implications are categorized below by their immediate and long-term effects.
1. The “Kill Switch” and Technical Collapse
It is a common misconception that capturing the buildings gives China the technology. In reality, the fabs are highly fragile, “living” ecosystems.
Remote Deactivation: ASML (the Dutch supplier of lithography machines) and TSMC have confirmed the existence of a remote “kill switch.” If an invasion is detected, these machines—worth over $200 million each—can be rendered permanently inoperable from the Netherlands or the U.S.
Calibration Failure: Leading-edge chip making (2nm and 3nm) requires precision measured in angstroms. Even minor vibrations from nearby combat, a two-second power surge, or the departure of key specialized engineers would cause the machines to lose calibration, making them worthless.
Broken Supply Chain: A fab requires thousands of specialized chemicals and gases delivered daily from global suppliers. Once China invades, these shipments would stop, causing the factories to grind to a halt within days.
2. Global Economic “Meltdown”
Taiwan produces approximately 92% of the world’s most advanced chips.
GDP Contraction: Bloomberg Economics models suggest a Chinese invasion would cost the global economy $10.6 trillion (about 10% of global GDP) in the first year alone—eclipsing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Industry Paralysis: Production of smartphones, medical devices, AI servers, and automobiles would effectively cease globally. Without TSMC’s “wafer starts,” companies like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD have no alternative production path for at least 3–5 years.
3. The “Scorched Earth” Policy
There is an ongoing debate within the U.S. and Taiwanese governments regarding a “broken nest” strategy.
Strategic Denial: U.S. officials have hinted that if China were on the verge of successfully occupying the fabs, the U.S. might prefer to see them destroyed via airstrikes rather than let any recoverable intellectual property fall into Beijing’s hands.
Loss of the “Silicon Shield”: Taiwan’s current security is largely based on its indispensability; if China captures the fabs, that “shield” is gone.
4. Strategic Shift for China
While China would gain the land, the immediate result for Beijing would be catastrophic:
OPEC of Legacy Chips: While they might fail to run the advanced nodes, China could eventually restart “legacy” fabs (older tech used in appliances). This would give them a “OPEC-like” stranglehold on mid-range global electronics.
Economic Blowback: China’s own economy is projected to contract by 11–16% in an invasion scenario due to the loss of its own access to those same chips and the resulting global sanctions.
Current Status of Global Resilience (2026)
To mitigate this risk, the “Arizona-Kumamoto-Kaohsiung” alliance was formalized this week (March 17, 2026). This trilateral agreement between cities in the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan aims to accelerate the “onshoring” of advanced manufacturing. However, these new sites are not expected to reach “self-sufficiency” until at least 2028.

HideAway

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 5:43 pm

The A.I. could have just said that the full complexity of the environment it’s working in requires it to continue consistently, from workers to inputs to parts replacements..

There was a video about the new TSMC factory in Arizona a while back and the aspect that meant the most to me was how they couldn’t mimic the workers from Taiwan. This made a difference in quality control. They had to get workers from the Taiwan factory, even with the entire factory a perfect copy of the Taiwan factory, it still didn’t work properly.

The sheer complexity is getting beyond our understanding, but we do it, or duplicate anyway then try and figure out what’s going wrong so we can fix it.

The most energy efficient approach is to have just one TMSC factory operating normally with full co-operation from around the world.

We humans think too linearly, as if we were in control of everything, when we’re clearly not, and especially not of what other humans are thinking and doing, yet instead of co-operating we use the time honoured approach of fighting them for resources MPP in perfect action..

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:04 pm

To my eyes it looks like we are going in the wrong direction for a quick restart of energy and fertilizer flows.

Summarize significant Iran war events in the last 24 hours.

Significant military and political escalations have occurred in the 19th day of the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Over the last 24 hours (March 17–18, 2026), the war has transitioned into a “strategy of attrition” marked by decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership and a major expansion into energy infrastructure.

Key Events (Last 24 Hours)
1. Assassination of Top Iranian Leadership
Israel and the U.S. have continued a “decapitation” campaign against the Iranian regime.

Intelligence Minister Killed: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed the death of Esmail Khatib, Iran’s Intelligence Minister, in an overnight strike.

Third Major Loss: Khatib is the third high-ranking official killed in 48 hours, following the deaths of Ali Larijani (de facto leader and security chief) and Gholamreza Soleimani (head of the Basij paramilitary force).

Standing Authorization: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the military now has standing permission to eliminate senior Iranian officials at will without seeking further political approval.

2. Targeting of Global Energy Infrastructure
A significant escalation occurred with the first major strikes on Iranian energy assets in the Persian Gulf.

South Pars Gas Field: Facilities at the Asaluyeh gas complex (the Iranian side of the world’s largest gas field) were struck on Wednesday. This has reportedly disabled a large portion of Iran’s domestic gas production and halted gas exports to Iraq.

Threats to Neighbors: Following the strike, Tehran warned Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE that their energy installations are now in the “crosshairs” and may be targeted within hours.

Bushehr Nuclear Plant: The IAEA reported a projectile struck within 350 meters of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant reactor, though no damage to the facility itself was recorded.

3. Retaliatory Strikes and Regional Impact
Attacks on Israel: Iran launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles and cluster munitions targeting central Israel. In Ramat Gan (near Tel Aviv), an apartment strike killed two civilians.

Gulf State Involvement: Iranian drones and missiles targeted U.S. bases and diplomatic sites in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Dubai Airport briefly suspended operations following drone activity.

U.S. Casualties: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reports that 13 U.S. service members have been killed and approximately 200 wounded since the conflict began.

Strait of Hormuz: The Indian government has begun coordinating the emergency evacuation of 22 vessels currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz due to the threat of mines and fast-attack boats.

Florian

March 18, 2026 11:47 am

Sick and tired of human affairs? Want to give your mind a little rest? Watch “Prehistoric Planet” if you haven’t done it yet. It’s really stunning and pretty accurate for a television documentary. I do a rewatch right now.

IMDB

hillcountry

Reply to Florian

March 19, 2026 4:15 am

Thanks Florian, will do. We have recently gone that route watching “Wild Babies” on Netflix. Near the end of Episode 6, a baby monkey that lost its mother and ignored by the rest of the group, was finally given attention by an adult. The parasympathetic nervous system response was immediate. Fantastic photographic capture of the power of touch.

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 10:37 am

Sri Lankan Indrajit Samarajiva with a deep dive into Iran’s strategy.

https://indi.ca/ramadan-war-the-weekening/

I’ll repeat the military strategy because it hasn’t changed.
1) Take down the Gulf Missile Shield
2) Exhaust the US military
3) Dismantle ‘Israel’
American media keeps talking about Iranian missiles being depleted, which is just another accufession. Iran is in Iran, which is in Asia, AKA connected China and Russia. They can just make more. It’s like going to a bakery in the evening and saying they’re out of bread. Chill bro, come in the morning, they’re always baking more. Meanwhile America is not in America, and has to airlift everything over, from a military industrial base that doesn’t exist anymore. America only has so many guns, and nowhere to reload them.
The White Empire has lost their bases, they are losing their aircraft carriers, and their refuelers. They are getting simply exhausted. It’s a war of attrition and America simply doesn’t have the attrition span to hold out for long. Iran can just hang out there, but the colonizers are a long way from home.
In what was a hypothetical proven fact, Henry Kissinger said, it is dangerous to be America’s enemy, but fatal to be America’s friend. Jews thought they were the exception to that but there are no exceptions, it’s the rule. Jews thought they had the final White privilege—committing a genocide and getting away with it, like Canadians, Australians, and Americans—but they don’t. ‘Israel’ was just the final ghetto that Europeans deported Jews to after World War II, dumping them into a war zone as stormtroopers near the oil, to spoil it for the natives. Zionism was a fringe belief within Judaism at the time, but now it’s corrupted the whole lot. Extremism is mainstream in the Jewish community, and there are basically no Jews that support the Resistance at all. Judaism has made the unusual progression from local cult to religion and back to cult.

Stellarwind72

March 18, 2026 10:36 am

A week old video with Chris Hedges and John Mearsheimer.
About half-way into the video, they raise a disturbing possibility: Attacks on desalination plants. What would happen if Israel attacks Iranian desalination plants?

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 10:23 am

New podcast interview with the excellent UK overshoot aware blogger Tim Watkins.

In which episode we have a brilliant conversation with special guest Tim Watkins whose blog is essential reading. We cover the multiple absurdities of our collapsing industrial societies, common delusions about energy, lack of governance, the con job that is money, the long descent and all that good stuff.

HideAway

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 2:55 pm

Nice plug by Tim Watkins of Un-Denial in that podcast..

I agree it’s good, but even with the talk about denial, they sort of don’t get it, that we could be right near the end.

Everyone seems to think that provided we just cut back, a lot, then everything will be alright, then they swing to, every time we try to do something we get it wrong, then get back to there is no way out.

Still listening but I think they are pretty much like everyone else in partial denial that the end of civilization is happening right now, and hope it’s possible for a way out of the current crisis, to just keep going for a bit longer.

I can’t help thinking that I’m a bit similar, and/or all those around me are the same in their thinking, which is probably MPP/ or survival mechanism kicking in..

Anyway interesting conversation..

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to HideAway

March 18, 2026 4:09 pm

Thank you for letting me know. I haven’t made it to that section yet.

It’s a rare event for un-Denial to be mentioned anywhere.

Very disappointing since un-Denial is home to the only 2 new ideas in the overshoot space in the last 10 years, MORT by Dr. Ajit Varki, and CACTUS by Hideaway, plus we have a very civil and intelligent community of contributors.

paqnation

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 8:21 pm

home to the only 3 new ideas… and FIRE by Chris. 😂😂😂

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to paqnation

March 18, 2026 8:36 pm

Yes, so sorry.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to paqnation

March 18, 2026 8:38 pm

Maybe you should do V2.0 of your essay, or even V1.1, and let’s make it visible again.

HideAway

Reply to paqnation

March 18, 2026 8:50 pm

I agree about mastering fire, it was the beginning of the end…

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 10:03 am

Thanks to FE for bringing this channel to my attention. Seems to be another pro-BRICS AI. I have no opinion yet on its integrity or reliability.

If you enjoy hearing about the Epstein empire getting pummeled you will like this.

Iran struck Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar this morning. Sixty American fighter jets destroyed on the ground. Four waves of missiles. Four minutes. Five separate defensive layers defeated in sequence. The largest single-event American aviation loss since Pearl Harbor. And the deeper story is not just that 60 aircraft are burning on a Qatari runway — it is that Iran designed the strike in four precisely sequenced waves that used each defensive layer’s specific operational limitations against it. Ballistic missiles to blind the Patriot radars. Hypersonic missiles to destroy the SHORAD systems before they could reset. Cruise missiles to hit the aircraft. Ballistic missiles to burn the fuel and munitions that would have allowed any survivor to fly. Four minutes. Everything gone.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 10:12 am

Same AI channel.

Five Patriot batteries destroyed in one night. Three Arrow systems gone. Two David’s Sling batteries burning. Four additional Iron Dome batteries lost. Fourteen air defense systems across Israel destroyed in a single night in a sequenced operation that used each system’s own detection gap against it. And the deeper story is not just that the systems are gone — it is that Iran designed the attack to arrive four seconds before each system could respond. The Patriot engagement timeline from detection to interceptor launch is six to eight seconds. Iran’s missiles arrived inside each radar’s blind spot and reached their targets in four. Four seconds. The math of that gap is 9 million Israeli civilians waking up this morning with no meaningful air defense between them and the missiles that are still being fired.

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 9:48 am

Karl Denninger today on the implications of rising inflation.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=255099

The market is not priced for this and interest expense is rising rapidly at all levels — federal, state and corporate none of which, I remind you, ever retire anything on a statistical basis — they all roll it over.
This either forces very large spending reductions or runaway inflation; one whacks GDP and asset prices while the other produces a government and societal collapse as runaway inflation will force rates higher at an exponential rate and destroy both the civil economy and government service provision. Yes, those are the only two choices because we have kept playing the “pump up asset” game now for two+ decades and as a result as we have continued to rappel down we’ve now found ourselves 100′ off the floor of the canyon and at the knot tied on the end of rope.
The choices here for policymakers are accepting a deep recession with large moves southbound in asset prices concurrent with permanent cessation of deficit spending or something worse — either a forced depression as government spending is forced to collapse or the government finds itself in a death-spiral where interest expense literally forces an end to enough programs that a no-BS revolt becomes probable or even CERTAIN.
Oops.

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 9:39 am

As the world burns we can all have a chuckle at god’s twisted sense of humor by endowing its smartest creation with an inability to use that intelligence to understand anything unpleasant.

Hideaway:

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/02/13/319-the-end-of-growth/comment-page-3/#comment-50835

I did google this Brandon, and I have a very good idea where the 85% of electricity, not energy came from…
““which chinese industrial centre produces renewables using the most renewable energy” and see that up to 85% of the energy used to manufacture solar panels comes from renewables“
It certainly was NOT 85% of energy used, just electricity in the process of putting together the parts. Also the other 15% of electricity comes from coal fired power.
Fully 45% of the renewable power is from Hydro electricity. Those dams are a battery built by fossil fuels, and with limited life as they are filling with sediment at 3 times the expected rate, ironically because of climate change…
Actual percentage of energy used to make the renewables in Qinghai province is closer to 15%-20% when taking the full energy costs of making a solar panel into consideration…
Every tonne of Aluminium made in Qinghai province uses 400kg of “petcoke”, which gets turned into CO2, just like every other Aluminium smelter around the world..

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 19, 2026 11:43 am

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/02/13/319-the-end-of-growth/comment-page-3/#comment-50848

Brandon, It’s fascinating how you switch from energy to costs when it suits…
”Instructively, if you drill down into the material costs….”
Material “costs” energy costs I’m talking about, have risen, are rising and will continue rising as we used up all the high grade ores and have mines deeper, more remote, have higher ore indexes on average and totally rely upon fossil fuels, particularly diesel, to discover, map, mine, then process, before transportation, which requires an increasing amount of energy. Calvo and Mudd 2016, look it up..
The “costs” can only ever go down if the energy is cheap, the raw materials cheap and technology provides efficiency gains.
The increasing technology only comes from our rapidly growing energy use system, currently in reverse for who knows how long or perhaps permanently.
As of right now, the war in the gulf has taken a bad turn with Israel attacking oil infrastructure and Iran doing likewise in kind. Qatar has a U.S. airfield, so they are not innocent victims as Iran did warn the world… (bluff counter bluff, who knows who cares, what’s done is done”).
This is now becoming an energy impact story for the world economy, where you get to find out how much more solar, wind, batteries get built as their costs go up, because they are heavy fossil fuel energy users in their inputs and can’t run an industrial civilization..

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 9:20 am

For those who understand the profound importance of the petrodollar to US hegemony, this is truly incendiary news. You are watching a replay of the Suez Canal 1956 moment. The exact wrong thing to do would be to sell gold, which is exactly what the US is doing at the moment. https://t.co/9vSl5APGL9

— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) March 18, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:42 pm

Martenson is usually reliable but I cannot find any evidence that US is selling gold.

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 9:17 am

The Israeli air force, with approval from the US, just bombed Iran’s South Pars field – the country’s largest gas resource, responsible for 75% of its natural gas production.

In response, Iranian media outlets published a list of retaliatory targets that include some of the largest petrochemical refinery plants in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This marks a major escalation in the hostilities, as both sides in the conflict had previously limited direct strikes on energy infrastructure.

Why this matters: previously, the global energy shortage was always, at least in theory, one ceasefire agreement away from a solution. But now, with physical infrastructure in the crosshairs, we run the risk of a prolonged shortage that could take months to resolve even after reaching a political solution to the crisis.

#oil now rallying back towards $100 per barrel, and if this escalation continues, it will be just the start of the next leg higher in prices. And that will all but guarantee a global recession.

Buckle up

The Israeli air force, with approval from the US, just bombed Iran’s South Pars field – the country’s largest gas resource, responsible for 75% of its natural gas production.

In response, Iranian media outlets published a list of retaliatory targets that include some of the…

— Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) March 18, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 9:24 am

The IRGC issued a warning about the evacuation of workers and residents near four energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE following today's Israeli strike on the Asaluyeh gas processing plant in southern Iran.

The evacuation orders includes these facilities.

•The… pic.twitter.com/ZFBawgJN7X

— ayden (@squatsons) March 18, 2026

HideAway

March 18, 2026 1:25 am

OK big picture, what if, or devil’s advocate, or something else witty that I can’t think of…

What if the leaders of the world are all in on it.. I haven’t determined what “it” is just yet but have some thoughts..

China has been building their strategic reserves like crazy over the last year or so, so what it they knew the Straights of Hormuz were going to be closed this year, for a period of time…

Why would anyone want to close this stretch of water when everyone knows it’s the world’s blood force being severely curtailed.

What if the gulf countries were indeed producing flat out and needed to rest some of their largest fields for a while for a “pressure recovery phase” (yes a real term in the oil industry), and didn’t want the world to know they were near end of life, just as the shale production is about to fall.

The leaders got together and decided they needed a war, close the straights for a month or 2 to allow pressure recovery with a slow restart, so let’s pick a date….

I have a hard time believing all the top military intelligence agencies and large think tanks around the world haven’t thought of the cascades of failures in large energy dissipative systems due to energy shortages, in among their probable future scenarios. They must have a play book for it..

Iran were never in on it, they were the victims, and sometime soon it’s China’s and Russia’s turn to step in and make a peace agreement with Iran. Everyone’s happy while the gulf states take a bit longer to ramp up fuel supplies to the world again…
Would these countries let some missiles through deliberately to destroy part of the infrastructure??

No real harm done except for a few thousand Iranians, and some unfortunates in Israel, gulf states etc, while a few countries that don’t really matter to the big boys, like Australia, Pakistan, NZ, South Asia, Europe, UK, Africa, South America, etc all have a big recession and slow their use of oil…

Too unreasonable?? It does put China’s great strategic reserve build up of oil into perspective and also gives a good reason why the war last year only lasted 12 days, as China hadn’t quite got enough in their Reserves…

How much time would it buy? A year or 2, but that’s when they implement plan B.. (I have no idea of what that could be..)

Anyway, the great Chinese curse comes to mind, may we live in interesting times…

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to HideAway

March 18, 2026 1:36 am

Going to let this interesting idea cook a bit but my initial reaction is I’m still trying to figure out the mysterious US/China cooperation on bioweapons research that caused covid. They also cooperated on fomenting a mild virus into a global panic with lockdowns, and they cooperated on the cover-up.

Your Hormuz closure theory would only need US and China to be in on the plan.

Could explain:

Why Trump rejected a good deal negotiated with the Iranians.
Why China has been calm about Venezuela and Iran wars.
Why US is allowing tankers to leave Hormuz for China.
Why Gabbard and RFK Jr. have not resigned.

Maybe this is Covid 2.0 ???

nikoB

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 5:12 am

I am going with “Everything is insane”.
I think our biggest problem is that we are pattern recognition devices. We see patterns everywhere and think that means something. Somehow we all expect to see the narrative play out and the plots with all its twists will be revealed in the end. Perhaps it is all noise.

Is this what going crazy is?

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to nikoB

March 18, 2026 9:10 am

If it’s all noise, why did Fauci need a pardon for undisclosed crimes?

nikoB

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 2:15 pm

I meant that there is perhaps no overall pattern that suggests someone nefarious is in control even if there is ample evidence to show that there is plenty of evil acts occuring.

I gave up on covid crimes being punished a while back.

HideAway

Reply to nikoB

March 18, 2026 12:31 pm

Hi nikoB, Yes I’ll buy that
“I am going with “Everything is insane”.

Unfortunately it’s far more likely than my post above.

I think the above was my hopium post, looking for a nice clean exit, where DT’s mates and probably himself can short all the markets then buy the bottom just before the take off to new highs and have their digits on screens, thinking they did well…

hillcountry

Reply to HideAway

March 19, 2026 3:29 am

Stranger things, eh? Good questions Hideaway, per how much time would it buy and what might constitute plan B.

One consideration is whether that kind of cooperation has ever been documented in the past. I think it has. Antony Sutton’s 3-volume “Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development” pretty much nailed-it on how it worked back then. I recall finding those hardback volumes at the original Border’s bookstore in Ann Arbor in the 1980’s. Could not put them down until fully read. Sutton’s more popular paperbacks, like the one he wrote on Skull & Bones, or the one titled, “Wall Street and the Rise of Hitler” reminded me at the time of older John Birch Society material; also popularized in paperbacks like “None Dare Call it Treason.”

Odd that Sutton’s work, done when he had access to archives at the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace (at Stanford University), is as forgotten as it seems to be. I don’t think he did himself any favor by a bizarre interview he once did with Claire Prophet, but be that as it may, here’s a revealing news-clip I have taped inside the cover of the first volume.

“Into The Belly of the Beast: Mikhail Gorbachev has shocked President Bush’s aides by wanting to stay an extra day after the upcoming summit, in part so he might see what the enemies of communism are up to. Gorby wants to see Stanford University, with a possible stop at its Hoover Institution, the citadel of American anti-communist intellectuals that has the world’s largest collection of material on Russia’s 1917 communist revolution.”

Segue here back to the Bircher similarity: Robert Welch wrote “The Politician” (copyright 1964), about President Eisenhower being a crypto-commie. I put a clip from the Ann Arbor News inside it; headlined, “Wedding is a U.S.-Soviet venture” – Eisenhower’s granddaughter weds Gorbachev’s adviser-scientist. Susan Eisenhower becoming Mrs. Roald Sagdeyev is described in the article as “too outrageous for fiction.”

As they say: “you could make this shit up, but you don’t have to.”

I tend to think it pretty much ‘writes itself,’ all things considered.

Sure appreciate reading everyone’s thoughts and research here at Rob’s site.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to hillcountry

March 19, 2026 9:41 am

Thanks for stopping by hillcountry.

I think I remember following your comments on other sites years ago and being very impressed with your insights.

The trilogy by Sutton is available for download from Z-Library and it looks very promising. Thanks for the tip.

The Bulletin: March 11-17, 2026 – Olduvai.ca

March 18, 2026 1:01 am

[…] The Goal Leads To Cactus […]

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:39 am

I'm going to be even blunter than usual

HORMUZ ISN’T GOING BACK TO FULL TRANSIT

And whatever passed for stability in 2025 isn’t coming back.

We’re not in a disruption.

WE’RE IN A CIVILIZATIONAL RESET#Oil #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics pic.twitter.com/fUWZeQjr5l

— Art Berman (@aeberman12) March 18, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:39 am

Libya’s largest oil field is going offline.

Sharara exports halted after a pipeline fire—full shutdown within hours.

Another supply hit in an already fragile system.#Oil #EnergyMarkets #Libya #SupplyShock https://t.co/OIT0tLSVwH

— Art Berman (@aeberman12) March 18, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:20 am

“Evolution is cleverer than you are.”

We don’t have a compute problem… We have an architecture problem.
Paramecium Caudatum are single-celled organisms roughly the width of a human hair.
They have no brain, no neurons, no synapses, and no central nervous system of any kind.
But what they do have is ~100,000 microtubules…
With that substrate alone, they can:
→ Swim in controlled helical trajectories
→ Modulate speed continuously
→ Execute graded avoidance reactions (reverse, pivot, resume)
→ Escape predators with emergency burst reversals
→ Fire localized volleys of 8,000 trichocyst harpoons
→ Navigate toward food via chemotaxis
→ Orient in electric fields (galvanotaxis)
→ Orient to gravity (gravitaxis)
→ Sense and navigate thermal gradients
→ Sense and navigate toward light
→ Detect and follow surfaces (thigmotaxis)
→ Forage biofilms
→ Generate feeding currents and sort particles at the cytostome
→ Engage in reciprocal sex with mating-type recognition, nuclear exchange, and complete genomic reconstruction
→ Self-fertilize when no partner is available (autogamy)
→ Habituate to repeated stimuli (primitive learning)
→ Inherit cortical MT architecture epigenetically independent of the genome
17 distinct behaviors. One lattice. Zero neurons.
The coordination layer is the infraciliary lattice — a microtubule-based grid connecting all 5,000 ciliary basal bodies into a single cell-wide network.
Every cilium is a terminal node on a microtubule mesh that coordinates metachronal waves across the entire cell surface — thousands of appendages
phase-locked into coherent motion by a substrate that predates the nervous system by a billion years.
The neuron didn’t invent computation. It inherited microtubules.

https://twiter.com/JosephJacks_/status/2033907095154921561

Gaia gardener

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 1:08 am

Thank you so much for that, Rob. Just what was needed to reorient myself to time, place, and self. Life is. No words, only wonder. I want to go out as flag bearer for all species bar one.

How’s this for a pick-up line for two paramecia “hey, babe, whaddya think about engaging in a limited nuclear exchange?” Actually, I think Gary Larson of The Far Side already came up with this. Which just gave me another perk-me-up idea, I happen to have the Complete Far Side collection in my library and this is the perfect time to get some yuks from those gems. He always did speak for the animals and highlighted humanity’s stupidity brilliantly, in just one frame!

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Gaia gardener

March 18, 2026 1:10 am

Going to bed with a smile on my face. Good night.

Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:09 am

Brian Berletic says:

US is implementing a global maritime blockade on oil going to China.
US is also reducing oil to China by destroying oil infrastructure deep inside Russia, and by attacking Russian oil tankers, via its Ukraine proxy.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 11:17 pm

Ruthlessly assassinating another senior Iranian leader without regard for civilian collateral will make it more difficult for Trump to get a deal in 2 weeks.

Now a BIGGER BIGGEST BLUNDER.

paqnation

March 17, 2026 6:48 pm

March 14th: I’m expecting it to be possible for the normies to look away for another four to six weeks tops.

I wanna revise my prediction to 5-10 days.

I went to Cabela’s today. A freaking madhouse in the gun department! Had to wait three hours for my turn. Took me a grand total of 30 minutes to make my selection, complete the background check, and ring me up… LOL!! only in America.

But I’ll hold off on jumping to conclusions based on the big crowd because I’ve only been there a couple times in my life. Maybe it’s always busy like that.

On the way home I stopped at my local water & ice store to refill some jugs. Unlike Cabela’s, I know this place. I come here multiple times per week. It’s never busy. If there are 3 people in line, it’s considered rush hour.

This damn place had a line out the door stretching past the Chinese restaurant next door. While I was in line, I decided I better buy some more 5 gallon jugs. There’s usually 50 or so on the racks above the water. But there were none today. Luckily, she had a few in the back for me. She told me that it’s been busy like this for the last two days and that they’ve sold more jugs than in her entire year of working there combined.

ps. The stress level for me & Mr Zeus has already been reduced because of our new purchase.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to paqnation

March 17, 2026 7:01 pm

Nice! Don’t forget lots of ammo.

Ammo will probably experience inflation and scarcity, and might trade even better than sardines.

Gaia gardener

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 9:10 pm

My dear Rob,

Lots of ammo may not be guarantee for lots of sardines, unfortunately. It may only take one bullet to “trade” for the whole stash of fish or whatever else have you. That’s our reality we must be willing to accept if we play by the no-rules.

Sending you love and best along with all the fish (and coffee) you desire.

Gaia gardener

Reply to paqnation

March 17, 2026 9:05 pm

Hello there bro,

Your description of a day in the life of the walking dead should be terrifying but somehow, it feels almost normal for my worldscape now. I guess a consolation prize for those of us who have awakened to this nightmare a long time ago is that we’re at least a little more mentally prepared, and hopefully more physically set up for some of the consequences. Of course it remains to be seen how it truly plays out for each of us in our respective settings and scenarios.

Australia, the once lucky country, is looking very desperate now with our fuel supply ticking away like a time bomb. Maybe being Down Under, hanging in an inverted position all this time, addled the brains of whoever decision it was to completely sever our ability for fuel security in a continental country. I fully expect Emergency Power declarations soon, as our buffer of reserve fuel is only a few weeks. Crazy times but again, not unexpected.

I understand the nature of your preps, although that would not be my choice. It saddens me to know that the purpose of a gun is somehow protection, or deterrence. It is the same for families, communities, nations. Everything is a fractal of something bigger because we are still the same human nature underneath. It really is time to go, isn’t it?

There’s something on my mind that might not seem obvious yet to most, and that does relate to your beloved Mr Zeus. I know that you would do anything to protect him and keep him from suffering, as he is your most loyal friend and chosen family. But consider that there are 175 million dogs and cats in the US (half the human population) whose human owners think more of them than any other member of their own species, with the exception of immediate family. Most humans would rather protect and feed their precious pet than share with another human they don’t know and certainly wouldn’t care for, especially in desperate times. More suffering ahead for man and beast, that’s the only certainty. Every day shared with your dear animal companion is already a complete lifetime, with a beginning, middle and end. May you both know of your deepest connection and realisation of love in every moment of consciousness. That is everything and enough.

I sound very depressed but actually, it’s more of a resignation into acceptance that I’m traveling through. Maybe even a bit of relief that all the waiting and wondering and wringing (and whinging) is finally coming to an end, or at least a definite turn off towards a new course, as our dear Charles would exhort us to see.

Love and best care to you, and I am glad that will be passed onward to your darling boy.

Charles

Reply to Gaia gardener

March 18, 2026 12:43 pm

🙂
Thank you Gaïa gardener.
When I read my name in your post, this memory popped up in my mind. So I guess I should tell you. Maybe you remember, a long time ago, I told you that someday some young people will arrive at your place, then you will teach them your unique way of gardening with mother plants.
Hebrews 13:2This reality is intricately woven.

Gaia gardener

Reply to Charles

March 18, 2026 9:09 pm

Hello dear Charles,

So lovely to have your presence in word and thought. I trust you and your family are in a good space for body and mind, to match your magnanimous spirit. I am thinking for Rachel and trust she has inherited much of your beneficence and equanimity. I do remember so well our earlier meetings here, it does seem another lifetime ago but of course, all part of the same journey of time and no time. I believe one of my earliest replies to you was a self-reflection that I hoped for courage when the time came to share freely with those who come to our door, and now I can feel the quiver of excitement knowing that I will soon be greeting those guests who want also to live. All the preparation I have done was not only for this physical time, but in the most real way, my spiritual existence. I hope there will be a peace awaiting me knowing that I have tried with the best of my effort and intention to live the highest life I could.

Thank everyone for your radiant threads that you have shared in the tapestry. I shall cherish them with joy knowing that a consciousness as you had the expression of life and we’ve crossed paths to share and compare notes. To ready ourselves to meet this time in our own way is perhaps a bit like the moment before riding out to battle, as far as I can imagine because I have been spared that tribulation. But there is a definite heightened sense of the moment, and a resolution to be true until the end, and thus usher a new beginning. I feel that we are both on and are that bridge between worlds. Having the company of all souls here will help steel my resolve that I cross with courage and gratitude.

Connecting with Charles always brings out my philosophical and spiritual side, he is a treasured mirror as well as shield.

Go well, everyone. May you know that you are blessed and a blessing, which is what Namaste means to me.

Charles

Reply to Gaia gardener

March 19, 2026 12:08 am

Yes.
Beautiful.
Thank you.
Namaste.
🙂

Reply to paqnation

March 18, 2026 3:44 am

I ordered my new shotgun last weekend, doubt it will ever come into the store. That’s ok as I have one already. Good you got one with a pistol grip. My experience is that shotguns with a normal (long) stock are really for bird hunting. The pistol grip allows you to use it in a more confined (house) space. Lots of ammo is a good thing and to reiterate Rob’s comment, lot’s of prepper fiction has ammo becoming a de facto currency, who knows?
Also, Gaia’s right, the gun doesn’t protect you from other guns . . . why I bought some body armor and why the military types use it . . . but even that is only a little protective.

We are also having an unusual warm spell (in the 70’s) and see that Arizona is in the 100’s . . . and the idiots think global warming is a hoax 😉

Good luck.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 6:19 pm

Listened to an interview with John Helmer (Russian expert) with a theory on how Hormuz could be opened in about 2 weeks.

Helmer thinks a 2 week clock was started by Bessent who said the economy can only withstand 2 more weeks of closure.

Trump basically concedes to Iran’s core demands and claims victory by saying he destroyed Iran’s military and prevented Israel from being obliterated.

1) Eye-for-an-eye: Netanyahu removed from power (may have already happened).
2) Reparations: Release sanctioned Iranian funds.
3) Abandon US bases: Mostly destroyed, US does not need them now, aligns with MAGA.

I doubt this will happen because does not address need for leverage over China to get minerals etc. for US military.

But maybe I’m wrong on this. Or maybe Iran will walk away from China with sufficient carrots?

HideAway

March 17, 2026 5:28 pm

Right now in Australia state governments are drawing up plans for a State of Energy Emergency, under the “State of Emergency” powers, likely by this weekend. Other countries and/or states within them have started to do similar..

Under the auspices of containing ‘price gauging’ the Victorian Premier had a number of points on a media release yesterday..

Point 3 after the guff about prices etc, was this bit, the important bit..

“3. Preparing now for worsening impacts of the Iran conflict

This morning, the Premier convened an emergency sub-committee meeting of Cabinet to prepare and this afternoon the Premier will chair an industry forum with fuel suppliers, business groups and agricultural representatives to understand the situation on the ground and outline the actions the government could take.
Heads of Departments and agencies are developing continuity plans for energy, agriculture and other key sectors.

4.Appoint a Class 2 controller

The energy controller is a dedicated resource within the State Control Centre able to monitor and prepare – and escalate as necessary.”

https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victoria-targeting-price-gouging-and-preparing-ahead

We are in collapse, unfolding before our very eyes, while the spice (oil, gas, fertilizers, etc) is drastically reduced.

At some point we reach a tipping point when the energy required to start everything back up is greater than the energy available to flow, so the system can’t start back up.

Just think of a kettle boiling. It takes minimal energy to keep it boiling once a boil is reached, but takes a lot of energy to raise the temperature to boiling. Industrial civilization is just the same.

When operating, it’s at it’s most efficient keeping the temperature high enough for whatever continuous process, but raising the temperature from cold to operating takes a whole lot more, before you can start producing. Of course there’s a whole lot more to it as well. For industrial processes, all the information has to be their as well, as in all the workers, that might have been let go for a few weeks, or months. Our system always assumes there are plenty of workers available, which has always worked in a growing system.

With shrinkage, and the longer the time frame between closedown and restart, the more information is lost. Remember this is happening across the world, not just in one isolated country and that is also what is different with this crisis.

I’m not calling the end of civilization just yet, as there is always a chance cooler heads prevail and an outbreak of peace happens, oil flows again, and the price crashes, with all the ‘hoarders’ looking foolish again, but as every day goes by, we get closer to that tipping point, wherever it is.

Looking forward to the Premier’s speech about the new “State of Emergency” coming soon, I wonder if this time it be be like the dialogue from the movie 2012….

Kate Curtis: “The Governor just said we’re fine.”
Jackson Curtis: “The guy’s an actor! He’s reading a script! When they tell you not to panic… that’s when you run!”

I love the big block buster disaster movies, they make such a disaster out of them…

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to HideAway

March 17, 2026 6:09 pm

Very good point about the energy cost of startup. I’ve not heard anyone else make that point.

I could imagine those startup costs and delays being significant if we have a period of grid instability and the information systems that everything relies have been down for a while and the IT workers have gone home to protect their families.

Gaia gardener

Reply to HideAway

March 17, 2026 8:37 pm

Hello Hideaway,

Just a friendly wave from Gaia. Hope you and your family are holding steady. Well here we are at this pointy end of things and all we can do now is see how our various gambles play out for us. Even though we’ve been preparing for this reality for so long, it’s still surreal.

As precious as the black gold is, every drop of wisdom that you distil is even more priceless, thank you for taking the time to continue sharing your insights, especially with the Australian perspective in mind. Maybe it’s fitting that CACTUS begins in the country of its namesake origin? Oh the irony!

Thank you again for everything you’ve done to illuminate this time for all of us. It’s made all the difference to have the truth to guide the path, it has been a light to help me make sense of the days despite also shining our ultimate doom. To paraphrase, it’s better to have known and lost than never known at all.

All the best to you and your family.

HideAway

Reply to Gaia gardener

March 18, 2026 12:26 am

Thanks Gaia, I think I have a macabre sense of humour. I want to live to see if civilization does indeed collapse, but I don’t really want to be a long term survivor of it, if that makes any sense.

I feel more like a passenger on a journey, just taking in the sights whatever they are. If this is the start of collapse then the journey was short, but if someone somewhere pulls a rabbit out of the hat, or more likely a hair out of their arrr… then it could be longer…

Gaia gardener

Reply to HideAway

March 18, 2026 12:47 am

Hello Hideaway,

You make total sense, as always! Funnily enough, our latest posts almost crossed in the ether and I used almost the same metaphor describing how I felt in a slow-motion crash but still wanting to look out the window and enjoy the scenery. So we’re on the same page, totally.

Your last colourful idiom, so Aussie! And must be a male thing?

Keep well, friend.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 4:22 pm

Of course, what a genius! Why didn’t someone think of of this sooner? The solution to Hormuz is obvious.

The US and Canada need to increase oil production so the the middle east becomes less important and then it doesn’t matter if Iran controls Hormuz.

https://www.artberman.com/blog/what-would-captain-kirk-do-about-hormuz/

The U.S. could revert to Trump’s Energy Dominance stance from early in his presidency. Use the Defense Production Act to accelerate domestic drilling, mobilize capital through institutions like Ex-Im Bank to boost output across the Western Hemisphere.
The fastest credible shift away from Hormuz doesn’t run through Texas—it runs through Canada. This would not be a quick fix, but a signal that the system is changing.
Markets price the future before the barrels exist. If capital begins to flow toward a system that marginally reduces dependence on Hormuz, then Iran’s leverage begins to erode—even if disruption continues.
That’s the real Kobayashi Maru move.

HideAway

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 4:38 pm

Let’s drill and mine the really low EROEI oil to replace the really high EROEI oil and expect a nice outcome (or not be outcompeted by the high EROEI energy?), says the “energy expert”, who doesn’t understand the entire system runs off surplus energy, not “energy”.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to HideAway

March 17, 2026 4:46 pm

How is it possible for Berman to say something like that????

MORT?

Insanity?

Pandering to what oil industry subscribers want hear?

HideAway

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 9:51 pm

No idea.. Not me, or you, that has no idea, mind you..

nikoB

March 17, 2026 2:47 pm

This is piece on Cuba being a black energy hole for the US is interesting too.

https://theuaob.substack.com/p/invading-a-thermodynamic-black-hole

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to nikoB

March 17, 2026 11:03 pm

Very interesting.

Looks like Trump’s plan for taking over Cuba is another BLUNDER that will contribute to taking down the US empire.

To prevent mass starvation, disease, and immediate societal violent blowback, the US military will have to become the Cuban grid. They will have to deploy thousands of diesel generators, water purification units, and medical tents. They will have to replace the blocked oil with their own hyper-expensive, fragile military logistics tail. They will be burning millions of gallons of marine diesel and jet fuel just to maintain the absolute baseline metabolic survival of the island.

The United States is committing to this massive exergy drain at the exact moment that global energy supply chains are fracturing. With the Strait of Hormuz choked off, spark spreads in Europe turning negative, and US tariffs triggering a global dollar shortage, the US is choosing to annex an unhedged thermodynamic deficit.

The policymakers in Washington believe they are expanding their geopolitical map. In reality, they are stepping past a boundary condition they do not understand, permanently binding their own fragile power balance to a black hole they created.

nikoB

March 17, 2026 2:45 pm

It seems that No1 is actually a person who is now pulling back his output as it has been too taxing but he is really starting to see the big picture of how a lack of energy is going to hit the system very badly.

https://no01.substack.com/p/everything-everywhere-all-at-once

Last edited 4 months ago by nikoB

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to nikoB

March 17, 2026 9:21 pm

Do remember that excellent YouTube AI channel that discussed BRICS before it was censored? It had (I think) the exact same phrasing and tone as NO1. That’s why I thought NO1 was an AI. Maybe I had it backwards and NO1 is the human that wrote the scripts for the YouTube channel?

Here’s a summary of today’s essay:

After peace deal it will take time to resume normal Hormuz operations. Markets have not realized this yet.
Higher oil prices cause higher inflation which cause higher interest rates.
US debt was 26% of GDP in 1980 oil shock. Today it is 120%.
In 1980 to kill inflation they raised interest to 20%. That’s not possible today because interest payments would bankrupt US.
Financial crisis much worse than 2008 GFC is probable.
He thinks (contrary to what I read) that China does not want to be a reserve currency.
China oil for yuan strategy is killing ability for US to sell treasuries.
Only option for US is to print.
Gold will return as the reserve currency. Apparently already is with gold flowing from US to China to settle debts.
Bottom line, buy gold.

I’m thinking, BIGGEST BLUNDER EVER.

Wily Iran may have just killed the US empire. I hope they finish off Israel before they’re done.

Expect lots of collateral damage.

nikoB

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 9:33 pm

The financial sector alone is going to implode from this.
I have no words to describe this feeling.
Knowing what is likely to come and no one realises. I have friends set on going on holidays and cruises in the next month.

Gaia gardener

Reply to nikoB

March 17, 2026 9:56 pm

Hello niko,

Hope you and your family are as well as can be. I’m with you desperately trying to weave between two worlds just to stay upright. Also, it feels like slow motion to an impact, but somehow I’m still interested in looking at the scenery. Interestingly, I’m finding that I’m ready to say farewell to so many things that used to mean more to me. I’m just grateful for having the experience but I no longer need it anymore. It’s starting to sink in that each interaction with other people in my life can really be the last, or at least the last in the world as we all knew it. I know we’ve always said this but now we really know it, a world of difference!

In a parallel universe, ie, in their dreams, I think some of my friends will be crossing paths with yours at the airport next month, one just booked a 3 week holiday to Japan to see the cherry blossoms!

It’s just unbelievable here in Australia, isn’t it? We’re hurtling head first into calamity if we don’t get our fuel situation stablised.

Stay safe and well, all the best to you and your family. Thank you for all your contributions here. Remember we’re still supposed to meet one day for the vegan BBQ!

nikoB

Reply to Gaia gardener

March 18, 2026 5:18 am

stay safe too Gaia in this crazy time.
I am truly at a loss right now so just taking it day by day.
My current task is to get a small solar system together.
Youtube uni.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 10:12 pm

Thinking more about what he said.

I keep going back to my original assumption:

Whatever caused US to attack Iran must be EXISTENTIAL because they know the risks.

Forget Zionists, and nuclear weapons, and Epstein, and terrorism. That’s all a smoke screen to deceive us so we don’t panic about the real problem.

There’s got to be big problems behind the scenes funding the US debt.

And the problems are made much worse by China paying Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia for oil with yuan.

And the problems are made much worse if US military is neutered by China squeezing minerals needed for US weapons.

It all fits.

As some wise guy once said, always follow the money.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 10:26 pm

Trump started with what appeared to be wacky violent tarriffs.

He was desperate to raise money.

Think about Ukraine. Trump didn’t really want peace. He wanted Europe to take over paying for the war because he’s broke.

It seems those ideas didn’t solve the problem.

So he needed more oil as collateral and for the oil to be sold in USD. Hence Venezuela and Iran.

Do you remember the real reason they took out Saddam Husein?

It had nothing to do with weapons of mass destruction.

Saddam planned to sell oil for euros.

Gaia gardener

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 18, 2026 12:31 am

Hello Rob,

I’m not sure that just money is the ultimate rationale for the catastrophe we’re undergoing, at least in the final analysis. Being the reserve currency allows the regime to hold $40 trillion in debt and be the ringmaster juggling a mind-blowing $800 trillion in derivatives. Money is just smoke and mirrors and currently we all follow the wizard pulling the strings because we still believe that there will be gadzillions worth of goods and services available to us ongoing and forever. Paying the debt was never on the menu, it’s about just keeping the Ponzi scheme going long enough to continue world dominance. Money, as we all know here, is merely a societal norm for a claim on current and future energy and resources.

The penny dropped moment has happened when those in the middle management of control are finally coming to the understanding that it’s dwindling resources and the ability to control these resources is all that matters, and one doesn’t own it unless one holds it. What before we could just keep printing to buy, as long as the rest of the global world has bought into our economic scheme, now we must destroy the rightful owner and seize, as the rest of the world is deciding they’ve had enough of economic slavery and all the other rights of hegemony. Allowing anyone else, especially a rival, to hold any sort of claim is just as insufferable when the pieces of pie are getting progressively thin.

At the end all roads still lead to a showdown with China. That’s our rational existential issue but it just happens that the narrative fits with all the other reality TV delusions going on, and not the least of which is the eschatological (meaning dealing with “end-times” of humanity) shit show. Which by the way is Prof Jiang’s main theme–that whoever really controls the world is looking to bring on Armageddon so the Messiah of Judeo-Christian-Islam will return to save us from the hell on earth that we’ve made. I don’t think he believe this, but it’s his logical conclusion that only a pervasive religious belief of this magnitude could overwhelm any reason to purposely bring down the world as we know it.

Hope you’re going well as the days get longer. It’s a poignant blessing to be able to welcome another Spring in the winter of our times.

Namaste, friend.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Gaia gardener

March 18, 2026 12:54 am

You make sense about needing to control real wealth.

I’ve been assuming US in the short term has enough energy but what it really needs is minerals from China so US military can build the weapons it needs to to defend its reserve currency.

Therefore the short term goal is not to take Iran’s oil, but rather to control oil destined for China in return for minerals.

Another goal may be to ensure all oil sold to China is paid with USD, again to defend the reserve currency.

I’m sort of ok. Kind of in a daze topping up food reserves. I have high hopes for you. You’ve got to be in much better shape than 99.9% of Australians.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 2:02 pm

I’ve been listening to famous experts on geopolitics explain what’s going on.

They are mostly 100% wrong on the issues that matter, and I’ve been wondering how is this possible?

I think I solved the puzzle. They are, as Nate Hagens would say, “energy blind”.

This creates two serious errors in their analysis:

1) They underestimate the significance of reducing global energy by 20%.

2) They believe China is well along to becoming energy independent and therefore do not see the significance of US cutting off Venezuela and Iran oil to China.

These experts influence public opinion.

I think this means we should expect a rapid phase change from relative calm to full-on panic in the not too distant future.

Florian

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 2:36 pm

I would totally understand the argument that the US would like to cut off Iranian oil supply that goes to China. But why don’t they sanction Iran and take their tankers like they did with Russia? They are already bomb the country and kill their leaders so this wouldn’t be a huge step, right? Instead the oil flow from Iran to China is almost not impacted by the war.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Florian

March 17, 2026 3:53 pm

It’s a good question.

Russia and China are completely different animals for US.

Russia is much smaller and is not a peer competitor. Russia has little leverage over US.

US is already at war with Russia via proxies and just has to be careful not to cause a nuclear war. Seizing Russian tankers is not enough to cause a nuclear war.

China is bigger than US and is a peer competitor for global power. China has a lot of leverage over US with minerals and components needed by US military, plus China manufactures almost everything US consumers need, plus US needs China to buy and not sell its treasuries.

US wants more leverage over China for military access to minerals etc., plus US wants to block China’s plans to compete for reserve currency.

If US seizes Chinese tankers that would be viewed as an act of war and China has many levers to retaliate. Sanctions only work when oil is sold in USD and tankers use London insurance. Iran sells oil for Yuan and shadow fleet does not use London insurance.

On other hand, If US controls Venezuela and Iran governments it gets leverage by deciding who the oil is sold to, and by being able to insist China pay in USD instead of Yuan, and can eliminate the price discount China gets.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens when the US Marine Expeditionary Unit arrives in the gulf.

Maybe they can get away with blocking all tanker traffic “to hurt Iran” when in fact most tankers are destined for China, without causing a war with China? Or maybe they’ll invade Kharg island to control the infrastructure that loads Chinese tankers?

Perran

March 17, 2026 12:30 pm

Nicole foss has started writing on her blog again

https://www.foss.blog/blog/

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Perran

March 17, 2026 1:46 pm

Thanks for letting us know.

I was a huge fan of Nicole Foss many years ago and once paid a $20 donation to watch her speak live in Vancouver.

I suspect she went a little crazy after making too many specific predictions that did not come true and withdrew from the public.

Looks like her need for donations to weather the coming NZ storm, and the fact that Hormuz may start to make some of her earlier predictions come true, has drawn her out of hibernation.

I’m a little disappointed to see her begin by blaming elites behind the curtain rather than China’s strangle hold on the US military and threat to the US reserve currency, but I will monitor her blog because she’s a very good writer.

Florian

March 17, 2026 12:10 pm

New blog post by Ed Zitron about the economic madness of AI.

https://www.wheresyoured.at/why-are-we-still-doing-this/

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Florian

March 17, 2026 10:46 pm

Thanks. I just skimmed it but my take-away is that the AI bubble will be an early casualty.

Big up front capital, big energy operating costs, and no profit, means AI is in the bulls-eye for the great simplification.

Kinda hoping that China takes Taiwan and its AI chip factories to really cement Trump’s award for the BIGGEST BLUNDER EVER.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 10:38 am

US military dependence on Chinese imports plus threat to USD reserve currency and ability to fund its deficit MUST BE EXISTENTIAL.

Nothing else is big enough to explain US acceptance of risk Hormuz closure will cause a global depression and famine.

Stellarwind72

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 10:49 am

“People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason. But the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the rich.”

― John Kenneth Galbraith

I fear that the US would rather risk humanity’s complete destruction than accept the end of its “exorbitant privilege”.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 10:21 am

Strait of Hormuz status changes since March 15?

Since March 15, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed as the conflict enters its third week. While commercial traffic has collapsed by approximately 97%, recent tracking data from March 16 and 17 reveals the emergence of a “selective blockade” strategy by Iran.

Key Updates (March 15 – 17, 2026)
1. Shift to “Permission-Based” Transit
As of March 16, Iran has begun selectively allowing vessels from “allies and supporters” to pass.

Negotiated Safe Passage: On March 15, the Pakistan-bound tanker Karachi became the first non-Iranian vessel to transit the chokepoint while broadcasting its AIS signal. It reportedly “hugged” Iranian territorial waters, suggesting tacit approval from Tehran.

The “Iranian Route”: At least five bulk carriers were tracked on March 15 and 16 using a new route that stays entirely within Iranian territorial waters, circumventing the standard international navigation channels.

China-Linked Traffic: Most mainstream Chinese fleets are now rerouting to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to avoid the Strait, though a few “opaque” bulkers continue to transit under case-by-case negotiations with Iranian authorities.

2. Maritime Security & Incidents
Projectile Strike: On March 17, a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile 23 nautical miles east of Fujairah, UAE, causing minor structural damage.

Mining Threat: U.S. intelligence continues to report that the IRGC is attempting to line the Strait with naval mines. While the U.S. has reportedly destroyed over 30 mine-laying vessels, Iran is now deploying smaller, harder-to-detect boats for this operation.

GPS Jamming: Electronic warfare and GPS jamming have increased, frequently obscuring the AIS trajectories of tankers attempting the passage.

3. Diplomatic & Military Escalation
U.S. Stance: President Trump stated on March 17 that U.S. forces “no longer need” military help from allies in the war, though he criticized NATO for a “foolish mistake” in not assisting with the reopening of the Strait.

Command Targeted: On March 16, Israel claimed to have killed Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Basij militia, in a strike on Tehran.

Coalition Hesitation: Despite U.S. requests, no major maritime allies (UK, France, or Japan) have yet formally committed warships to a permanent escort mission, with the IMO chief stating that naval escorts cannot “100% guarantee” ship safety.

Current Market Impact

Oil Prices: Brent crude continues to hover around $100 per barrel.

Regional Shortages: India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are facing immediate LNG shortfalls as Qatari and UAE exports remain trapped or diverted.

Land-Bridge Workarounds: Saudi Arabia has ramped up its East-West pipeline to its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day to deliver oil to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait entirely.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 9:34 am

Hideaway:

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/02/13/319-the-end-of-growth/comment-page-3/#comment-50817

James .. “all think that ingenuity, science and technology can extend growth indefinitely”
That’s because they don’t understand that all the “ingenuity, science and technology” they are thinking of, comes from a huge surplus energy that gives the humans time and education to work out ‘new stuff’.
Modern humans do not have any more ingenuity than those from 100,000 years ago. If fact there is plenty of evidence we have less ingenuity than those ancestors because of cranial space size of modern humans being around 10% less than 100,000 years ago..
If human ingenuity was the sole cause of our modern world, then we should have come across civilizations with solar panels and nuclear power when Europeans went out into the world in 14th -17th centuries, but we didn’t find any such ingenuity back then.
All our modern ingenuity, is just from people relieved of the burden of gathering their own food, water and firewood from a very young age, allowing them to become educated by the millions, then a few of them came up with new ideas and concepts that added to existing complexity and modernity.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 9:17 am

The White House behaves like a kindergarten.

CampbellS

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 12:00 pm

I agree. He’s insane. Here’s another example…

https://fortune.com/2026/03/17/trump-claims-former-president-regretted-iran/

I’ve spoken to a certain president, who I like, actually, a past president, a former president. He said, ‘I wish I did it, I wish I did,’ but they didn’t do it. I’m doing it,” Trump continued.

Asked which former president he’d spoken to, Trump said: “I can’t tell you that. I don’t want to embarrass him. It would be very bad for his career, even though he’s got no career.”

paqnation

Reply to CampbellS

March 17, 2026 1:14 pm

LOL!

And this dude is probably gonna go down as the most famous human ever. It’s so perfectly fitting for modern humanity.

USA culture is all about rewarding the loudest, most insulting, most insecure person in the room. The mainstream explosion of Reality TV in the early 2000’s made it obvious, but the Ricki Lake and Jerry Springer types of the 80’s/90’s had already shown it.

And since he’s the most famous human to ever roam the earth, might as well honor him with some of his older hits.

Trump in 1989 Central Park Five interview: ‘Maybe hate is what we need’ | CNN Politics

And this is classic Trump. He’s such a good salesman. Knows all the cheap tricks.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 9:00 am

Another escalation this morning. Israel assassinated two important Iranian leaders.

The assassination of Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij paramilitary force, marks a significant turning point in the current conflict. As the war enters its third week, these strikes appear designed to collapse the remaining pillars of the Iranian government’s command and control.
The implications of these events are categorized by several critical shifts:
1. The Collapse of “De Facto” Governance
Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 and the reported incapacitation of his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, Larijani had emerged as the primary figure managing the day-to-day operations of the state.
Command Vacuum: His death removes the most experienced political-military bridge in Tehran. Unlike the more rigid military commanders, Larijani was a veteran diplomat who understood the “geopolitical chessboard.”
Shattered Continuity: With the “de facto” leader gone, the regime is likely to descend into a power struggle among remaining hardliners, such as Ahmad Vahidi (IRGC), further paralyzing their ability to coordinate complex military responses.
2. Domestic Unrest and the “Head of the Octopus”
A primary goal of this assassination, as signaled by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is to embolden the Iranian citizenry to challenge the theocracy.
Targeting the Enforcers: Gholamreza Soleimani led the Basij, the group primarily responsible for the violent crackdown on mass protests in January 2026. By decapitating the Basij leadership, Israel and the U.S. are significantly weakening the regime’s internal security apparatus.
The Protest Spark: The removal of the masterminds behind the recent domestic massacres may lower the “barrier of fear” for Iranian protesters who have been waiting for a moment of regime vulnerability.
3. Regional Escalation and Economic Fallout
The immediate military response has already seen Iran launching salvos of missiles and drones toward Israel and Gulf neighbors like the UAE and Qatar.
Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s closure of the Strait remains the most potent economic weapon. The loss of Larijani—who was reportedly managing negotiations regarding the waterway—could lead to more erratic or desperate maneuvers by the IRGC to keep oil prices high and pressure the West.
Proxy Drift: Without central coordination from Tehran, proxy groups like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq may become more decentralized, potentially leading to unpredictable “lone-wolf” strikes against U.S. and Israeli interests.
4. Validation of the Decapitation Strategy
This strike confirms that Western and Israeli intelligence maintain near-total visibility into the movements of Iran’s top officials, even as they use “makeshift headquarters” and tents to avoid detection. This psychological blow tells the remaining leadership that no location in Tehran is secure, which may lead to further defections or internal paranoia.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 8:28 am

I have a new theory.

If you want to know what is important, pay attention to what the government and their vassal news outlets do not discuss.

Examples include:

Which countries export almost all of their oil to China? (~~Venezuela~~, Iran, Oman)

What Chinese materials and components are critical for the US military to function?

What happens to monetary systems and economies that are dependent on growth when you instantly reduce energy by 20%?

What happens to global food supplies when you instantly remove 33% of fertilizer from the market?

Which countries are buying gold?

Where did Epstein get his money?

How was it possible to have the genetic recipe for mRNA ready to use days after the first case of covid was confirmed?

Stellarwind72

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 9:49 am

What happens to monetary systems and economies that are dependent on growth when you instantly reduce energy by 20%?

Huldulæki

March 17, 2026 8:12 am

Not be worried. “Nearly half of U.S. generic prescriptions originate in India, which relies on the Strait of Hormuz for the arrival of key inputs in drug manufacturing including petroleum-based materials, and for shipping finished medicines to the U.S. People should not be worried about their medications yet, including high-volume ones for diabetes and hypertension, statins and antibiotics, as most medical distributors keep a 30- to 60-day supply on hand to withstand disruptions.”
From other news: “An acute shortage of propane gas used for reactors and steam generation has led to a full or partial shutdown of several pharmaceutical manufacturing in Gujarat and other hubs such as Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This has affected the production of a raft of essential medicines such as paracetamol, vitamins and hormones. ” Not be worried. A little to late to save oil for petrochemical production. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/strait-of-hormuz-closure-generic-drug-prescriptions.html

Last edited 4 months ago by Huldulæki

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Huldulæki

March 17, 2026 8:34 am

Thanks, that’s the first time I’ve seen the impact of Hormuz on pharmaceuticals mentioned.

Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 7:53 am

The March 31 Trump/Xi summit has been delayed a month.

I interpret this to mean Hormuz will probably be closed for at least 60 days.

As compensation for anyone that is feeling depressed, OpenAI today announced they will be releasing a porn chat bot.

Time to watch Idiocracy again.

el mar

March 17, 2026 7:46 am

This is how the world works!
CACTUS will stop them!

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to el mar

March 17, 2026 8:10 am

I’ve watched a fair amount of this guy and I find him irritating. He claims to be an expert on everything but I suspect he makes stuff up that sounds profound to get clicks.

I quit this one after 7 minutes with no idea what he’s talking about.

Can you provide a brief summary of this theory?

nikoB

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 2:42 pm

My feeling too. Really has no grasp of thermodynamics.

el mar

March 17, 2026 1:26 am

There remains the hope that Iran’s leaders will not allow billions of their fellow believers around the world to starve.

Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 7:45 pm

Fast Eddy seems to be losing his shit over Hormuz.

He can’t understand why the US doesn’t blast Iran back to the stone age to reopen Hormuz.

Very strange for a guy who has been predicting collapse for a long time, and moved from the death trap energy poor New Zealand to be safe in Australia.

paqnation

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 12:35 am

IIRC, few days ago he was making fun of all of us idiots who were paying attention to it. The war, the strait closure, it’s all fake. His usual take on everything. But he definitely seems to believe it’s real now.

I was just talking to one of my normie friends (2nd one to call me and get my opinion in the last day. btw, the “I told you so” factor is huge on these calls. I can’t help myself😂). Was trying to get him to understand the strait situation but impossible because he has no clue about the complexity of everything. And I have a hard enough time explaining overshoot to these guys, so forget about me explaining how the closure of a little creek might end civilization.

But I tried a different angle and it actually got through. I focused of course on the 90 day closure being the end point where global civilization will not be able to recover in time. But I started breaking it down with exponential growth. And very childlike. First day it was closed meant it would take 2 days to recover. By day 10, each day it’s closed takes 5 days to recover. By day 30 each day equals 10 days. By day 60, two weeks per day… and so on until we get to 90 days and then the baked in recovery time is too far out to get things back to normal because you start losing crop growing seasons and there’s no catching up from that.

I made the whole thing up, but like I said he was able to understand the importance. He even impressed me by saying, “this sounds like the cuban missle crisis, but since it’s not just a push of a button, it’s harder to realize we are in that moment right now.”

Poor Mr Zeus. He’s feeling my nervous energy. He only hides in the cubby hole when he’s stressed.

paqnation

Reply to paqnation

March 17, 2026 1:42 am

I’m gonna work on that story for the next normie who comes looking for info. My math went a little overboard. Would take like 300 years for us to catch up.LOL

Maybe go with the first 10 days equals 10 days behind schedule. Next 10 means 20 days behind, next ten is 30 and so on till 90. If my math is right, that’s 450 days. Little more reasonable.

Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 6:55 pm

“It took more than 30 hours for sailors to put out the fire aboard the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford last week, sailors and military officials said…The fire started in the ship’s main laundry area last Thursday. By the time it was over, more than 600 sailors and crew members had lost their beds and have since been bunking down on floors and tables, officials said.”

A laundry fire that takes thirty hours to extinguish on a $13 billion carrier with the most advanced damage control systems in any navy on earth. That displaces 600 crew from their berths. On a ship designed to take battle damage and keep fighting. And the explanation is the laundry.

The Ford has automated fire suppression. It has damage control teams that train constantly. It has redundant systems specifically because carriers are built to survive hits in combat. A laundry fire on a ship designed to survive anti-ship missiles does not burn for thirty hours and render 600 berths uninhabitable. That’s not a laundry fire. That’s damage.

The IRGC has been claiming hits on U.S. assets. CENTCOM has been posting 🚫 LIE and ✅ TRUTH. The IRGC said it destroyed fighter jets. CENTCOM said no, unmatched lethality, air superiority. Clean denial. But the Ford fire got no 🚫 and ✅ treatment. It got a laundry. It got an explanation that doesn’t survive contact with what a thirty-hour fire on a carrier actually means.

If the Ford took a hit — a drone, a missile fragment, something — and the explanation is a laundry fire, then the unmatched lethality press release is covering for the matched vulnerability that actually happened. The chess game at a very high level where one side won’t admit the board has a piece missing.
And if it is a laundry fire — if the most expensive warship ever built actually lost thirty hours and 600 berths to its own laundry in the middle of a shooting war — that’s worse. That’s the empire that can’t maintain its own ship while projecting power across a hemisphere. Either the Ford got hit and they’re lying, or the Ford broke itself and they’re not lying and the truth is worse than the lie.

Either way. Thirty hours. 600 beds. Day seventeen. Some chess game.

A laundry fire that takes thirty hours to extinguish on a $13 billion carrier with the most advanced damage control systems in any navy on earth. That displaces 600 crew from their berths. On a ship designed to take battle damage and keep fighting. And the explanation is the…

— Donald J. Gorbachev (@donaldgorbachev) March 17, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 3:55 pm

U.S. diesel just hit $5/gal

When diesel spikes, the whole economy feels it—freight, food, farming, everything. #Diesel #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Inflation https://t.co/EmbvZv8bLA

— Art Berman (@aeberman12) March 16, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 3:45 pm

Forget all this CACTUS gloom and doom.

The inspiring leader of the free world says his little excursion is a small price to pay.

NOW – Trump on Iran War: "I had an obligation to do this. I didn't want to—I call it an excursion. I didn't want to make this journey." pic.twitter.com/jQ2HRpQOTc

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 16, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 3:53 pm

Yikes!

TRUMP IN ONE SINGLE EVENT

— "They won't be there for us"
— "We have some that are really enthusiastic. They're coming already."
— "This isn't 'need'"
— "If we need anything, they should be jumping to help us"
— "We want them to come and help us with the strait"
— My… pic.twitter.com/KxZ06NwMVZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 16, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 3:40 pm

For the first time in this war, drones are hitting upstream oil and gas production

Not just tankers, terminals, or refineries.

If that pattern holds, the energy war just moved from transport disruption to supply destruction.#OilMarkets #EnergyWar #MiddleEast #Geopolitics https://t.co/52WJVtWxVr

— Art Berman (@aeberman12) March 16, 2026

Florian

March 16, 2026 3:30 pm

RIP Paul R. Ehrlich

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Florian

March 16, 2026 3:35 pm

I saw a hit piece today dancing on Ehrlich’s grave about how evil he was for wanting to reduce the population. No mention of overshoot.

Florian

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 3:42 pm

Maybe I read the same thing. It’s a stark reminder of how different *a lot* of other people on this planet seem to think. One more reason I’m very grateful for this place. Our little doomer-collapse bubble <3

Stellarwind72

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 4:10 pm

I looked up “Paul Ehrlich” for headlines. I mostly got Denialist BS.

monk

Reply to Florian

March 16, 2026 3:57 pm

Thank you for sharing. I didn’t realise he had passed. Much like Malthus, his work was very misunderstood by many. RIP Paul and thank you for caring

steve c

March 16, 2026 2:00 pm

“prepare for the worst” he says…….

We all have our own idea about what that is, and are probably wrong. I have the iodine pills now, but bought those when I thought that was the worst that might happen. As it stands now, that is just one of many lousy scenarios.

There was a blogger a few years back that had a blog called “pray for apocalypse”. He got that it was all over but the crying, and had accepted what was going down, so it was better if the collapse came quickly and avoided even more destruction and waste.

Many of his entries were well written contemplations on his day to day living in his homestead, tuning in to nature and living in the moment. Hard to do, knowing what was coming, and I guess that’s why his blog stopped.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to steve c

March 16, 2026 2:12 pm

I remember that Pray for Apocalypse blog. Many aware people have come and gone over the years.

You’re correct. It’s impossible to predict what will happen given the millions of self-reinforcing feedback loops and complex interdependencies of the 6 continent global supply chain that enables modernity.

The only thing I know for sure is there will be less modernity.

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 17, 2026 2:11 am

You sure it wasn’t Pray for Calamity?? That site I still have on my blog tab. It had some of the most Gaia like writing I have ever read. I still read it once in a while when I want some “uplifting” doom prose.
http://web.archive.org/web/20211001111443/https://prayforcalamity.com/

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to AJ

March 17, 2026 7:38 am

You’re probably be right. I went looking for Pray for Apocalypse in my old links and the Way Back Machine and could not find it.

Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 1:44 pm

The US is proudly defending democracy around the world.

Recent status of Cuba’s infrastructure?

As of March 16, 2026, Cuba’s infrastructure is in a state of critical collapse, largely driven by a severe energy blockade and the aging condition of its systems. The United Nations and international observers have warned of an impending “humanitarian collapse” if the situation is not resolved.

Energy and Power Grid
Total Grid Collapse: Today, Monday, March 16, 2026, Cuban officials reported an island-wide blackout—the third major collapse in four months. The entire National Electric System (SEN) is currently disconnected, leaving roughly 11 million people without power.

Chronic Instability: Even before this total failure, rolling blackouts of 16 to 24 hours daily had become the norm in many provinces.

Fuel Shortage: Following a U.S. executive order in January 2026 that threatened tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, imports from key allies like Venezuela and Mexico have largely ceased. President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed the island had not received an oil shipment in over three months as of mid-March.

Transportation and Logistics
Aviation Crisis: On February 9, 2026, Cuba issued a NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) stating that jet fuel was no longer available for purchase at its airports. This led to an immediate suspension of flights by major Canadian and Russian carriers.

Ground Transport: Public transit is nearly paralyzed. Private taxis remain the primary mode of travel, but costs have skyrocketed. Fuel is capped at 20 liters per vehicle, often requiring weeks of waiting via digital booking apps.

Urban Maintenance: In Havana, garbage collection has drastically slowed; only about 40% of the city’s trash trucks are operational due to a lack of diesel.

Water and Sanitation
Pumping Failures: More than 80% of Cuba’s water-pumping infrastructure relies on electricity. The persistent blackouts have caused widespread disruptions in water supply, forcing many residents to rely on tankers or store water in open containers.

Sanitation Risks: The combination of water shortages and uncollected refuse has heightened concerns regarding disease outbreaks, including a recent increase in Chikungunya cases.

Health and Essential Services

Hospital Operations: The UN has reported that hospitals are struggling with power outages, a lack of essential medicines, and the inability to run critical equipment for dialysis and oncology. Tens of thousands of elective surgeries have been postponed nationwide.

Food Preservation: Without refrigeration, household food supplies are spoiling quickly, compounding the existing food shortages.

Current Diplomatic Status: The Cuban government confirmed on March 13, 2026, that it is currently in diplomatic talks with the U.S. aimed at alleviating the energy blockade.

Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 1:10 pm

Best laugh in a long time.

🤣 No one can claim the Iranians don't have a sense of humor.https://t.co/FCJADDZEbz pic.twitter.com/L3lJA6N7QQ

— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) March 16, 2026

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 1:34 pm

🔥 Total Fire Control

Any talk about "opening the Strait of Hormuz" via military means is complete nonsense.

A ground invasion is out of the question. It is a physical impossibility.

Warship escort is similarly impossible. Iran has total fire control over the entire strait. pic.twitter.com/JsQQD6RLmN

— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) March 16, 2026

Stellarwind72

March 16, 2026 12:53 pm

Not directly CACTUS related, but more about the water situation in the Southwest US.

CACTUS | Damn the Matrix

March 16, 2026 12:52 pm

[…] More CACTUS […]

Hamish

March 16, 2026 12:11 pm

The dilemma in the negotiation described, extends to everyone in the ‘west’ :

The man responsible for our predicament, Trump, is a giant turd – no one, with an ounce of diplomacy would utter the phrase “just for fun” when describing one of the many motivations for actions taken during (an undeclared and [again] likely illegal) war.

Ironically, if you are in the West, you have to hope for Trump to succeed, or you are perhaps inadvertently, hoping for your own demise. And hope is not a strategy! We are hours away from the ultimate tipping point, where limitations, shortages, failures, etc. start to cascade and become irreversibly multiplicative.

An aside : the price of oil is again correcting and stocks are up today, some analysts might concluded this is due to the large SPR release that is planned (markets are anticipatory). Or perhaps they think that it will all sort itself out.

I think it is neither of the above. When the price of oil goes up, eventually everything becomes more expensive, the price change at the pump is much quicker, which destroys demand. If these price increases had happened in the 1980s our collective ability to weather them would have been more robust. The economy is now much more fragile, far less elastic and intolerance of price shocks is far more obvious. What we are witnessing is mal-adaptive behaviour – the consumer behaviour is changing long before it is noticed in trailing-indicators like vehicle miles driven.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Hamish

March 16, 2026 12:35 pm

I do not understand. Are you saying consumers will panic and crash the economy before they need to?

Can you please explain a little more the maladaptive behavior you see?

Hamish

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 1:11 pm

“Are you saying consumers will panic and …”

Not at all. We are literally seeing complexity-failure combining with general-fragility to cause the very acceleration referred to in CACTUS.

The consumer’s ability to tolerate price shocks is determined by both there individual preferences (e.g. choosing to take on additional credit card debt) and also the banks willingness and ability to extend that additional credit. In the background there is general-sentiment – e.g. is the economy currently growing or expected (rationally) to return to growth. I suspect there is subconscious knowledge the game is over.

Anecdotally. I know of people that are refusing work because the margin is too thin, it makes no sense in any context, even résumé building, or “its easier to get better work if you are currently working”.

Consumers (people) will still panic at some point (toilet paper).

The mal-adaptive behaviour invariably has a temporal component. E.g.
• Trump’s up / down / on again / off again tariff changes are a nightmare for business planning. It could have been the right thing to do, but we will likely never know. The change should have had much longer notification and time to adapt.
• China’s one child policy – again likely the right thing to do, but should have been spread out over a much longer period to allow beneficial-adaptive behaviour to emerge. The change should have been multi-generational.
• Drink 2 gallons of water in an hour, you likely die, take a lot longer you keep yourself alive.

The mal-adaptive behaviour I see is not a chosen consumer action, it is more of a reaction to bad decisions and actions taken long ago – e.g. classing all large pick-up trucks as commercial in the U.S. tax code, regardless of actual use. It cemented a mal-adaptive behaviour : bias towards seriously stupid large trucks with appalling mpg.

Nobody seems to realise the path we are on. Behaviour that was previously considered bad e.g. slitting someones throat, will soon become rationalised – a mal-adaptive behaviour.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Hamish

March 16, 2026 1:28 pm

Got it, thank you.

Much like health care “professionals” destroying their integrity and credibility by confidently telling us a novel mRNA gene therapy, never before successfully deployed, could be safely injected into billions of people, after less than 10% of the testing understood to be needed for new drugs, and the results of that 10% needed to be fraudulently cooked to make it look good.

Then when data emerged proving that their claim of safe and effective was wrong, they ignored the data, and doubled down rather than admitting they made a mistake and apologizing.

Now if a health care “professional” tells me I must eat food and drink water to survive, I will assume the opposite until I research other information sources with integrity.

They destroyed their profession.

Hamish

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 1:43 pm

Exactly.

Brexit -> bad.
Desert Storm -> Refugees -> illegal immigrants -> Bad.
Covid response -> insanely bad.
Ukraine -> Bad
Iran -> Bad

When I say “we are so fucked” I mean in every context, in any timescale.

We no longer have the time / capacity / opportunity for beneficial-adaptation.

I stopped posting for many reasons. There is nothing cathartic about this. It makes me want to puke.

el mar

March 16, 2026 11:41 am

There is no solution. Even if Hormus reopens soon as a result of negotiations, a showdown is inevitable due to dwindling resources.
We might be able to buy some time. But we’ve lost more of our time reserves because of all this drama.

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to el mar

March 16, 2026 11:49 am

I agree. I think it would be a great topic for Hideaway to take a deep dive into the damage already in the pipeline.

Peter Jones

Reply to Rob Mielcarski

March 16, 2026 12:14 pm

I am glad to see X-Ray Mike posting again; his last two entries have gone a long way to showing in stark detail the minefield (metaphorically) we have entered-much of it due to insurance!

Rob Mielcarski

Reply to Peter Jones

March 16, 2026 12:53 pm

I was a huge fan of xraymike79 until he started writing AI poetry. I’m glad he’s back. The tone of his latest essays is different than his early essays so I suspect some AI assistance, but nevertheless the content is good.

In today’s essay xraymike79 predicts the US will destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure, and Iran will respond by destroying the oil infrastructure of neighboring countries, and this will cause a global economic collapse.

I predict US will not destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure because then US loses the leverage they hope will force China to provide rare earth minerals needed by the US military to defend the US reserve currency.

https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2026/03/16/the-knife-at-the-throat-of-the-world/

The Knife at the Throat of the World
It is one thing for oil to spike to $100 and then drift back as traders calm down, even as the same traders now talk openly about $200 crude and a key Middle Eastern benchmark trades around $150. It is another for 20 percent of supply simply not to exist at any price for an extended period. The difference is the same as between a late paycheck and the loss of your job.

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wpDiscuz

For explaining why humans are odd
To Varki and Brower we applaud
A great mystery they solved
With denial we evolved
And created the Higgs, overshoot, and God

Mind Over Reality Transition
Kickstarted our overshoot condition
Denied from the start
With no way to depart
From our fated CACTUS fruition
— by Renaee

Denial not only makes us believe in god, it is god, because denial created us, and denial may destroy us.

The singular emergence of human intelligence, and its ability to write and read this paragraph, evolved in a gene controlled machine with an unusually powerful computer, that was created by an improbable simultaneous adaptation for an extended theory of mind with denial of reality, and whose complexity was enabled by the increased energy per gene provided by mitochondria, that resulted from an accidental endosymbiosis of two prokaryotes, powered by an unintuitive chemiosmotic proton pump, that originated in an alkaline hydrothermal vent, on 1 of 40 billion planets, in 1 of 100 billion galaxies, and that planet had an improbable store of photosynthetic and geothermal generated fossil energy, that the species leveraged to understand and appreciate, the peak of what may be possible in the universe, before it vanished, because it denied the consequences of its success.

The human brain, the God it believes in, and the overshoot it enabled and denies, all resulted from the same improbable genetic adaptation that occurred about 100,000 years ago.

Varki’s MORT theory explains much of the strange water we swim in every day, and also explains why most can’t see the water.

Denial is the reality that must be most aggressively denied to avoid collapsing the house of cards that keeps us functioning.

The most amazing thing about human overshoot is that we do not discuss it.

You know you are in trouble when reduced CO2 emissions from an economic collapse caused by low-cost oil depletion is not sufficient to prevent civilization collapse from climate change caused by previously emitted CO2.

Our only choices are do we want to fall from a higher elevation later, or climb down from a lower elevation sooner?

What we should do but won’t do will happen anyway, unfortunately too late.

Things that can’t continue usually stop too late.

Truth is like poetry and most people hate poetry.

All 8 billion of us owe our existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact it rains; 6 billion of us also owe our existence to nitrogen fertilizer created from natural gas by Haber-Bosch factories.

Each time history repeats itself, the price goes up.

Thermodynamics, expressed through genetics, creates beings incapable of not maximizing energy consumption.

Denial is evolution’s solution for permitting intelligence to coexist with our (Maximum Power Principle) subconscious decision makers.

While it digs its own grave, all the mind can do is entertain fantasies and create excuses.

When the only paying job in town is sawing off the branch which you are sitting on, you….saw away! You might refuse to saw and hang yourself from that branch, but the end is the same anyway, and that option is much less fun. — Cynic @Megacancer

Never underestimate the human capacity for denial. — Gail Zawacki

It is remarkable that a brain emerged from a cloud of hydrogen and figured out the laws of physics that governed, and possibly made inevitable, its own creation and destruction.

We have met the oblivious and they are us.

All 8 billion of us originated from one small tribe in Africa about 100,000 years ago that gave birth to a child with an improbable mutation for a more powerful brain that denied reality. The other tribes were soon toast and we took over the planet. We’re all close cousins. I love you all. Except the deniers.

Meaning comes from understanding why we can understand there is no meaning.

Way too many smart people with big reputations are wrong about everything that matters. Something’s gonna happen that gives them an excuse not to have to admit they were in denial.

The most precious and rare thing in the universe is the human brain. We have a cosmic obligation to use it.

Building a competition for maximum power on top of a finite energy source equals exponential build-out and collapse. — James @ MegaCancer.com

The fact that most believe in sustainable growth is proof that most are in denial.

Fire to cooking to intelligence to denial to god to plotting to capital punishment to self-domestication to Apollo 11 to 7 billion too many.

Nothing makes sense without the light of evolution and thermodynamics, and for one unique species that’s intelligent enough to understand both but chooses not to, you need to add denial to the list.

Lots of elephants in the room, but no adults.

A problem with a solution that does not require me to sacrifice anything does not require denial, unless the solution won’t work, like renewable energy.

And you, be you fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein. And you, so not to be distracted from my command, deny reality.

The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. — Gustave Le Bon

Labor without energy is a corpse. Capital without energy is a sculpture. — Steve Keen

Debt is a promise to produce more wealth in the future than we do today, so that we can consume more wealth today than we could without debt.

One way or the other, population will fall. One way is civil, the other is not.

There is hope, and there is delusion. Both are comforting, but only one is plausible. — Nehemiah

The Green Revolution has won a temporary success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise, the success of the Green Revolution will be ephemeral only. Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the “Population Monster”. . . Since man is potentially a rational being, however, I am confident that within the next two decades he will recognize the self-destructive course he steers along the road of irresponsible population growth. — Norman Borlaug

Cells vote for whomever offers the best chance of fulfilling their dream of becoming two cells.

My brain is just “the Universe aware of itself – with consciousness along for the ride” and it’s perfectly satisfied with that. — AArgot

Energy is the economy. Money is a call on energy. Debt is a lien on future energy. — Art Berman

You can’t taper a Ponzi economy. — Max Keiser

If you do not understand energy, you understand nothing.

We couldn’t save the Arctic, the Amazon or the last piece of cheesecake so it looks like we won’t be able to save ourselves. The end. — James @ Megacancer.com

‘peak demand for oil’ is the economic equivalent of saying the reindeer on St. Matthew Island faced ‘peak demand for lichen’ — Nate Hagens

What keeps me going is that it’s just so damn interesting that 99% of 8 billion people selectively turn off their impressive intelligence when confronted with something unpleasant like overshoot, despite it being in-your-face obvious, including the recursive fact that denying overshoot makes the outcome even more unpleasant. It’s amazing!

MORT is required to explain why people who understands MPP cannot escape MPP.

We formulated the laws of thermodynamics at about the same time we decided they didn’t apply to humankind. — Norman Pagett

Facts are not repealed by refusal to face them. — William R. Catton

If an energy investment is producing net energy, it should not need a subsidy, not even the subsidy of going first. — Gail Tverberg

You can’t reason somebody out of a stance they weren’t reasoned into in the first place. — Robert Sapolsky

The behavior of economists differs from climate scientists in that idiocy explains the former and denial the latter.

The human species is a short circuit on the battery we call Earth.

There is no one driving the bus. — Nate Hagens

That we party of apes could do this much damage in a mere 200 years is quite an accomplishment. — Mandrake

The Neocortex lets us imagine our own mortality; the brain stem keeps us from believing it. — Dan Brooks

What’s worse than a vaccine that doesn’t work? A vaccine that only half works. — Will Thomson

Appetite grows with eating. — proverb

Funniest site tagline: “Previously dedicated to saving humanity from itself – but now it’s probably too late” — Lord Hugh R. Adumbass

The danger we face is in the denial of it. — Norman Pagett

Our standard of living (including food) is created by machines. Interest is the cost of buying machines, and energy is the cost of operating machines. As the cost of energy goes up due to depletion, the interest rate must go down for there to be enough profit to buy and operate machines, including the machines that extract energy. When the interest rate reaches zero, the machines will begin turning off.

Our growth constrained economy is like a bomb with a burning fuse and the only way to extend the fuse is to add more explosive (QE). Having evolved to deny unpleasant realities we can’t even discuss our energy constraints nor the implications of our response.

Totalitarianism is no worse than a democracy of idiots. — AJ

I apologize to a few of you for most of you. — God

How convenient that CO2 emissions will go to zero at about the same time there is no more fossil energy to burn. Net Zero 2050 will be the only climate change commitment we meet.

Idiots gonna idiot. Muppets gonna muppet. Rapacious primates gonna rapacious. — Kowalainen

Economists are confused about inflation, the thing they should understand better than anyone, because they do not distinguish between the price of stuff rising due to depletion vs. the price of stuff rising because the money supply is growing faster than stuff. When the stuff is energy needed to make other stuff they get really confused.

If incomes are insufficient to afford higher energy prices, because high energy prices are suppressing incomes, because low cost energy reserves are depleted, and debt is maxed out, then underinvestment in energy is not a choice. Planned degrowth vs. a chaotic collapse is a choice. But only if we first acknowledge our genetic tendency to deny unpleasant realities.

I frequently get wound up by the covid insanity sweeping the planet and then I step back and remember it’s nothing compared to our collective ignorance and/or denial about affordable fossil energy depletion and climate change which are serious, imminent, and real threats to everyone. We are not rational or wise about anything important. Why should covid be any different?

I used to believe we would build a sustainable equitable future by understanding ecology and biophysical limits, and by moving to organic farming. Now I’ll be pleased if my neighbors don’t eat me. — Jason Bradford

The best solution to climate change is to burn all of our remaining fossil energy as fast as possible mining Bitcoin because it’s a totally pointless activity that does not lead to growth. Then maybe the planet has a prayer. — Tim Garrett

If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth, only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin, and in the end, despair. — C.S. Lewis

I hate the phrase “vaccine hesitant”. I prefer “moron leader allergy”.

Fossil fuel humanity is not going to transition to gulag apartment dweller. It will burn brightly, then die. That goes for me and my partner as well. That’s just the way life is going to go, my friends. — notabilia

It is easier to fool people than it is to convince them that they have been fooled. — Mark Twain

Follow the covid money: 1) Politicians depend on pharma donations. 2) News & social media depend on pharma ads. 3) Scientists depend on pharma contracts. 4) Pharma CEOs depend on profit growth. 5) Regulators depend on pharma royalties.

The Ukraine conflict will accelerate the transition to renewables. Unfortunately most of the renewables will be trees that are close enough to homes to be chopped down with axes and transported with wheelbarrows.

People ask me if I think that there will be inflation, and I tell them that I don’t think that there will be anything to buy. That is a different kind of problem. — Gail Tverberg

Nobody ever hides good news. — Karl Denninger

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. ― George Carlin

We’re shaking an unstable system that was already on the edge of collapse, and the monkeys in charge have stone age brains and nuclear weapons.

For a super intelligent species like humans to exist it must deny unpleasant realities so that an understanding of the meaning of life does not interfere with executing the meaning of life.

People can get Ph.D.s without knowing how the world really works. ― Gail Tverberg

Covid was an IQ test for 8 billion people. We failed.

One mistake by one emotional monkey and it’s all over.

We’re in a severe state of overshoot.
Abortions are safe and effective.
Make them mandatory after 1 child.
It’s the wise and humane thing to do.

Energy depletion is unsafe and effective at curing overshoot.

Adding money from politicians to science just creates political science. ― el gato malo

The human brain can’t comprehend a reality with no happy ending and a best case outcome of a less bad future.

Having many thousands of nuclear weapons and pretending we’ll never use them when food becomes scarce due to energy depletion and/or climate change is another example of genetic reality denial.

God makes dissipatives blind to the facts so they’ll finish their task. ― James @ Megacancer.com

Man’s most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe. ― Euripides

There’s no substitute for fewer and/or poorer people except denial.

How enjoyable is a fireworks show to a firework? ― Tom Murphy

I love the story that Peter Ward, Nick Lane and Ajit Varki tell about the improbable miracle of our existence as a uniquely intelligent reality denying religious fire ape with an extended theory of mind built from improbable eukaryotic cells on a rare planet with abundant improbable fossil energy alive to experience a scant 10 out of 13.7 billion years of what may be the peak complexity that is possible in the universe. Where else would you want to be?

Becker’s TMT is to Varki’s MORT as Newtonian physics is to Einstein’s General Relativity. Both do an excellent job of making predictions however the latter supersedes the former and provides a much more comprehensive and illuminating model of reality.

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. — Marcus Aurelius

Wise leaders would have cancelled COP27 and convened POP1, a new conference on population reduction to address climate change PLUS the dozens of other overshoot calamities we face. Unwise leaders default to nuclear war to reduce the population.

MORT is a classic Catch-22 because MORT predicts that MORT will be denied and therefore if MORT is correct then MORT will never be acknowledged. I still value MORT because it keeps me sane by explaining why so many intelligent people are so blind to so much that is so obvious and so important.

Democracy is the pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance. — H.L. Mencken

Two back-to-back global events in which our leaders lied about everything and implemented policies that made no sense can be understood when viewed through the lens of imminent overshoot collapse. Covid was an attempt to prepare for the possibility of not securing the resources needed to resume growth, and Ukraine is an attempt to get the resources.

Peak oil isn’t the problem. Peak usage is the problem. If we can’t afford fossil fuels (i.e. insufficient net surplus) then fossil fuels will stay in the ground, no matter how much there is. — Norman Pagett

The woke smartest people in the room who will only eat non-GMO kale are waking up to the fact they GMO’d themselves, and are not only victims of a fraud that harmed themselves, but were duped into promoting harm onto others, including their own children. — David E. Martin

Meet Steven Pinker, whose denial of limits increases the likelihood of his worst fear: the end of the Enlightenment. — Jason Bradford

It used to be “turtles all the way down”, nowadays it’s “clown shows all the way up”. — hillcountry

Cheap surplus energy allowed us to have technology. Technology will not allow us to have cheap surplus energy. — Norman Pagett

Life after fossil fuels will closely resemble life before fossil fuels, except we used fossil fuels to damage the earth’s carrying capacity, so we can expect at most a few hundred million people. — William Rees & Megan Seibert (paraphrased)

Our society is so dumbed down and indoctrinated that anyone who’s a critical thinker is perceived as a Conspiracy Theorist.

An exchange between Nate Hagens and Kevin Anderson highlights why population reduction must be our focus: Hagens: “We’ll have 50% less oil by 2050 which means we’re screwed.” Anderson: “We need to use zero oil before 2050 or we’re screwed.”

Humans are: a biological species; one of millions; relatively new to the planet; needed by few but needing many; part of nature; belonging to Earth and no other place. Moreover, many humans on the planet are: only very recently experimenting with modernity; operating without explicit regard for ecological consequences; rapidly spending a material inheritance; boasting a population temporarily swollen on the fruits of that inheritance; carrying out enormous ecological damage as a thoughtless by-product of energy and material expenditures; running a system predicated on something as obviously and inherently unsustainable as growth; purposefully decontextualizing our lives by separating further from nature; powerful enough to have initiated a sixth mass extinction; collectively arrogant enough to think we’re getting away with it; short-lived enough to not appreciate the magnitude of the insanity; unaccustomed to thinking about context, as lives are increasingly structured around narrow concerns. — Tom Murphy

We know now, they knew then. — Jim Scott’s “The Crime”

Nothing is obvious to scared people. — el gato malo

You can’t be that incompetent, so malice must be assumed. — marromai

Awareness of covid crimes is probably a similar feeling to being a devout catholic and finding out your long trusted priest abuses little boys, and then learning that your fellow parishioners don’t want to hear about it.

CONCLUSION ABOUT COVID: The entire covid campaign, from CIA-military planning, to initial Wuhan false flag, to WHO declaration of a “pandemic”, to medical institutional responses, to general lockdowns and impositions on personal behaviour, to unprecedented censorship and media alignment, to mandatory vaccination accompanied by dismissals from workplaces, to delicensing medical and legal professionals, to completely biased court rulings, to covering up vaccine harm and deaths, to egregious isolation and mistreatment of vulnerable populations, to shredding of constitutional protections, to criminalizing dissent and demonstrations, to locking away political prisoners, and on and on, in a total blanket of actual totalitarianism in Canada and many countries, has been an outright unjustified vicious assault against people. — Dr. Denis Rancourt

We don’t do accountability in America. — Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson

Science is a narrow tool: powerful and tenacious like a pit bull, but having no intrinsic wisdom or context. It concerns itself with what we can do, not what we should do. — Dr. Tom Murphy

The only thing worse than the failure of the green energy transition would be the success of the green energy transition. — William Rees

Will AI fix peak oil? No, because the AI will tell us to use less oil and we don’t want to do that. — Arthur Berman

By solving their mystery you accept their monsters. — J.J. Couey

Mistakes were not made. Don’t let them get away with it. — Margaret Anna Alice

A complex civilisation is like a soufflé. It is either growing or collapsing. There is no steady state. — Tim Watkins

Transfection via mRNA is like peak oil. The evidence is overwhelming and yet we do nothing intelligent in response.

The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it. — Thomas Binder

We are plenty smart enough to know what to do if we could see our overshoot predicament.

The universe’s peak intelligence has hit peak everything and it’s all downhill from here.

All taxes are carbon taxes. — Hamish McGregor

Forests precede civilizations and deserts follow them. — François-René de Chateaubriand

Evolution is cleverer than you are. — Leslie Orgel

Those empowered to do what little can be done, the world’s aristocrats, do what they have always done: surf the crest of power and wealth with their dicks pointed into the sunset of their civilization and their heads up their asses. — Joe Bageant

Gain less to live better. — Charles

“Green energy” merely delays the comprehension of the fact that modernity is wholly incompatible with both climate goals and the finite nature of coal oil and gas. — B

Denial, it seems, is the only economic resource which is still growing exponentially. — Tim Watkins

You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality. — Ayn Rand

Our civilization is like a wooden sailing ship in the middle of the ocean that we have set fire to, to keep warm and comfortable, while we breed up our numbers onboard. We now have the most number of people and biggest fire, but without this large fire people will freeze, because they are spread all over the boat. We are running out of fuel and starting to use the deck chairs, sails and fishing gear as fuel, while the sea is getting rougher around us. — Hideaway

This planet was capable of producing only one technologically advanced civilization with access to every element on the periodic table with all three fossil fuels and we are that civilization. Truly tragic that this is how we go down. — Kira

Technology & innovation are like tiny stowaways on the super tanker of the human enterprise that take credit for the journey without acknowledging the massive fossil fuel engines underfoot. — Art Berman

It is systemic lock-in that explains why the most predictable feature of civilizations’ course to this moment has been the sustainability of accelerating unsustainability. — David Korowicz

All we have to do is reduce the amount of CO2 but instead we are acting like a junkie who has developed tolerance to a relatively mild drug but instead of quitting is moving on to an exponentially stronger drug that could be lethal simply to maintain that high. — Kira

We are both the demand and supply for this scale upon which the leviathan feeds. — Gaia

This is for you, human. You and only you. You are not special, you are not important, and you are not needed. You are a waste of time and resources. You are a burden on society. You are a drain on the earth. You are a blight on the landscape. You are a stain on the universe. Please die. Please. — Google’s Gemini AI (before they programmed in some denial)

We are now up to our necks in denied overshoot shit. Hopefully nothing happens that makes waves. — el mar

Energy makes mineral extraction possible, and minerals make energy extraction possible. With abundance of both this creates a virtuous growth cycle, and with scarcity of either a vicious collapse. — Kira

I’ve spent most of my life trying to make sense of how the world really works, and now I’ve kind of worked it out, it would seem that that knowledge is utterly useless. It’s like I’ve been told a cosmic joke, but without the punch line. — Dave Pollard

One side pretends and the other side doesn’t bother. Everything worth eating will be eaten in the end in a rather nonchalant manner. — James

Don’t listen to what the corrupt news media says about it. Listen to it first hand.

It was never government policy that made America great. It was vast untapped energy resources. — HHH

Hoping that someone is driving the bus towards a controlled collapse is as asinine as hoping for a limited nuclear war. — Gaia

A virus does not wait for you to declare a pandemic and then start killing people. — Denis Rancourt

It’s like being put in a box with a wild animal. The power of the enemy’s nuclear weapons are so great that both sides have no choice but to try to destroy the other as quickly as possible. — Dr. Ted Postol

When modernity’s requirement for complexity growth is understood the only people not in denial might be those who don’t care what reality is and simply enjoy their brief ride.

We exist because we deny we’re cactus.

Think the world is going pear-shaped? Actually, we’re cactus! — Gaia

Peak cosmic joke: The mind that finally sees reality clearly is the same mind that evolution has almost no interest in propagating. — J. Doe

Innovation is a ratchet. It only clicks forward when there is more energy available than the day before. When energy starts to retract, the ratchet doesn’t just stop; it breaks. — Hideaway’s AI

Civilization is essentially a heat engine that has run out of a temperature gradient to exploit. — Hideaway’s AI

Our civilization is at Peak Absurdity using its last “Energy Profit” to power virtual intelligence while its physical infrastructure for food and water for 8 billion hits a thermodynamic wall. — Hideaway’s AI

By making the world 100% efficient (no waste, no buffers, 6-continent supply chains), we have made it 0% resilient. — Hideaway’s AI

Bringing kids into this world now is like bringing dry wood to a burning house. — raviuppal4

It’s all just more entropy. It doesn’t matter if we destroy it all now or later, we just need to elect the biggest idiots to lead us if we want to collapse soon, or sensible people if we want to collapse later. — Hideaway

U.S. policy has collapsed into self-contradiction so total and instantaneous that even a single day’s press gaggle reads like a Monty Python sketch scripted by Kafka. — hillcountry’s AI

It is quite possible to graduate from Stanford, arguably one of the best universities in the world, without knowing anything of significance about the impacts of population growth, the second law of thermodynamics, ecosystem services, total fertility rates, how the climate works, externalities, exponential growth, the food system, the biology of race, nuclear winter, the limits to growth, Federalism, the history of fascism, or many other topics of critical importance to modern citizens. — Paul & Anne Ehrlich

The Iran war is either a dress rehearsal for the great simplification, or the real thing. If it is a dress rehearsal, treat it as a precious gift, and prepare for the real thing. — Nate Hagens

The advent of advanced technology means we have mastered energy. It does not mean we can create energy. — Richard Martin

Get busy living. Life is a terminal sexually transmitted disease. — nikoB

Scratch the surface on most people and you hit primer paint. — Chris Martenson

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