
Neither Iran, nor the US, nor the mainstream news, nor most of the alternative news, ever mentions conventional oil depletion, or the fact that last year it was officially announced that US fracked oil is peaking, or the empire’s need to sell oil for USD to support its reserve currency.
Instead they blame a tiny country of 10 million with zero resources for controlling a rich country of 300 million, or nuclear weapons that US government security officials testified do not exist, or the need to protect the same citizens they harmed with sanctions and bombs, or 10 other bullshit reasons.
Even insiders with high integrity and intelligence do not speak the truth:
We see pundits speculating that US is actually trying to capture business from the gulf states by supplying US oil and LNG to the world, or how the Hormuz closure is good because it will accelerate the energy transition away from oil, or how life will go back to normal the day after Hormuz reopens.
These are not small errors.
The Iran war is the most consequential event since oil was discovered 167 years ago, and will harm every human on the planet, yet almost no one discusses its root cause, or its true implications.
How is this possible? Seriously.
The only person that occasionally admits the true objective is to control Iran’s oil is an elderly person with a failing brain that rants on a social media platform he owns but no one else uses, and most people ignore his rants because he’s a crazy old guy, and they ignore he threatened to genocide a 2500 year old civilization of 90 million people, and they ignore he times his tweets with the market to enable insider trading, and they ignore he thinks he’s Jesus 2.0, and they ignore he has absolute authority over the world’s second largest nuclear weapons arsenal.
How is this possible? Seriously.













Covid, the second most consequential event in decades, followed a similar pattern.
Governments, and healthcare “professionals”, and most intellectuals, and mainstream news, and the majority of citizens, never discussed and denied the obvious bioweapon source of the virus, or the fact that mRNA is a radically new pharma technology with a history of failed trials, or the grossly insufficient testing used to justify the transfection of billions that did not need protection, or the obvious inherent risks associated with mRNA technology, or the data that subsequently proved mRNA did not work and was dangerous.
Not one person has been held to account for the unnecessary deaths of about 20 million people.
How is this possible? Seriously.
Thank you Dr. Ajit Varki for keeping the few of us able to see reality sane with your MORT theory that explains why we are surrounded by 8 billion crazies.
New essay today from Paul Arbair (aka Polar Bear) with an excellent part 1 of 2 (very long) primer on overshoot and a discussion of how Joseph Tainter’s study of civilization collapse explains world affairs today.
Tainter focused on the increasing cost and diminishing returns of complexity.
Arbair missed that Tainter missed the core CACTUS idea that modernity requires growth in both complexity and scale to offset declining quality of reserves and to maintain flows of non-renewable resources.
That’s a pretty big miss.
Why might Arbair have missed that Tainter missed CACTUS?
Because if you assume complexity is an optional feature of modernity then you are comforted knowing (and avoid triggering MORT) that simplification and degrowth (aka The Great Simplification) are viable outcomes.
Arbair also provides a lengthy explanation for why we are not aware of our underway collapse, but he missed MORT.
That’s another pretty big miss.
But he’s in good company because every other overshoot aware leading intellectual also missed MORT.
Arbair is a big fan of Nate Hagens which might help explain his misses.
Just to be clear, this is an excellent top tier primer on overshoot, that is worth your time to read, and that gets everything right except it misses two key ideas: MORT and CACTUS.
https://paularbair.wordpress.com/2026/05/02/the-tainterian-dynamic-and-the-advent-of-the-great-simplification/
Not one person has been held to account for about 20 million unnecessary deaths.
Two new cases of cancer in my tiny circle of friends, one of which is quite young.
Not sure about this. Outside of my experience but as a general rule FRAUD and concealment of a FRAUD tolls the statute of limitations until the crime is complete (proof of death caused by the fraud). I would argue the the crime might not be complete until the last person has died by a covid shot caused cancer occurs. There would be problems of proof and it might pertain to the specific federal law.
So, unless the author is a expert in Federal criminal law and perhaps all the state laws where a person died (all 50) maybe Fauci could still be prosecuted?
But he won’t be because the elite Pharma/Medical power structure would never allow it.
AJ
When Australia runs out of diesel to harvest coal and natural gas for heating and cooking, and gasoline for chain saws, it still has the tools and skills to harvest wood, although the forests won’t last long.
A Kiwi is the current Timbersports world champ. This stuff used to be on national TV when I was a kid.
A favourite show in our house was weekly episodes from the National Sheep Dog Trials.
Then those areas that were once forests will turn into desert. I fear that if CACTUS is correct, we will damage the planet so badly on the way down that the Earth’s carrying capacity for humans will fall to zero.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328719303507
This paper argues that after climate change has run its course the climate will be too unstable for agriculture. The problem is, there just isn’t enough wildlife remaining for us to return to hunting and gathering. It takes a large number of prey animals to support a small population of predators. But if the Predator population outnumbers the prey population by the obscenely imbalanced ratio of humans to remaining wildlife, the prey will quick go extinct and the predators will soon follow.
I used to think that near-term human extinction was far-fetched, but given the extreme damage already done and the inevitable damage we will do on the downslope, it is starting to look more and more plausible.
Here is an example of an animal overshooting its local carrying capacity so badly that it went extinct regionally.
https://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comic/st-matthew-island/
Assuming the oceans are not affected too much by climate change so that fish can survive, then the odds of humans going extinct in the short term are limited.
Ocean stocks of some fish will restore very quickly without commercial fishing in huge diesel fuel/ bunker fuel driven trawlers, but probably well out of balance with natural systems, so likely fish still available for some people..
A part of the Hormuz crisis that is particularly disturbing: Its impact on food.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-persian-polycrisis
I didn’t copy the whole list because it’s too long.
45% of global sulfuric acid consumption is dedicated to the wet-process production of phosphoric acid for phosphate fertilizers. Plants need phosphorus to grow deep root systems, giving them a better chance at surviving droughts. There is no worse time to run out of fertilizer than in a heat wave that is lining up to be epic.India, China, Russia (and many other countries) have already halted fertilizer exports to protect their domestic agriculture, with China also stopping the export of sulfuric acid.Naphtha, 60-70% of which used to arrive from the Persian Gulf to East Asia, is an essential input in making herbicides and pesticides, without which crops don’t have a chance against weeds and pests. Factor in plant weakness from a lack of nutrients (fertilizer), making them even more vulnerable, and you have a disaster waiting to happen.
I tried to put some of the comment in list form as it was in the article, but the list form got removed for some reason
For some reason when you blockquote some text it removes any bulleted or numbered lists. I usually go back and manually add bullets or numbers.
Just some random thoughts occurring to me my mind regarding how to prove MORT:
Dr. Varki himself uses the term “reality denial”. This term has a psychiatric opposite which is called “reality testing”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality_testing
Reality testing is something not all humans do equally well. The mental condition that tends to come with the worst reality testing is referred to as “psychosis”, which is the key feature of schizophrenia.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychosis – “In psychopathology, psychosis is the inability to distinguish what is or is not real.” ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizophrenia )
Now, there is a field in biology referred to as behavioural genetics ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioural_genetics – “Behavioural genetics, also referred to as behaviour genetics, is a field of scientificresearch that uses geneticmethods to investigate the nature and origins of individual differences in behaviour.” )
Personally, I see MORT most cleanly positioned in this field. Denying reality is a form of behaviour, and MORT says it has ultimately genetic origins, which makes MORT a theory of this particular field of biology that overlaps greatly with psychology.
A sub-field of behavioural genetics studies the genetics affecting mental disorders, such as the before-mentioned psychosis and schizophrenia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychiatric_genetics ( “Most psychiatric disorders are highly heritable; the estimated heritability for bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and autism (80% or higher) is much higher than that of diseases like breast cancer and Parkinson’s disease.” )
Something that has been nagging at my mind for a while is this idea: could it be possible that MORT is simply a form of relatively functional schizophrenia that was more adaptive than maladaptive for the original homo sapiens? It would at least not surprise me if MORT had something to do with these genes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizophrenia#Genetic
Any thoughts on this?
I have to add that it has been quite the puzzle for psychiatric geneticists why schizophrenia, which is highly heritable, but quite debilitating in its more extreme forms, persists in the gene pool regardless:
“The question of how schizophrenia could be primarily genetically influenced, given that people with schizophrenia have lower fertility rates, is a paradox. It is expected that genetic variants that increase the risk of schizophrenia would be selected against, due to their negative effects on reproductive fitness. A number of potential explanations have been proposed, including that alleles associated with schizophrenia risk confers a fitness advantage in unaffected individuals.[93][94] While some evidence has not supported this idea,[85] others propose that a large number of alleles each contributing a small amount can persist.”
MORT would be an excellent explanation for this.
Yes, good evidence in support of your theory.
I might be wrong about it, but I am fairly certain that schizophrenia-genes are uniquely human – no other known organism has so far been documented who has these genetic sequences. Screams MORT. But, and I am not sure what I think about this myself, if this were correct, then it would be the most nuclear finding in the history of science.
Sorry I’m dense this morning. I get this could be a viable explanation for MORT but why do you think it is even more nuclear than MORT itself?
Imagine the face of the pope when you hand him a paper that explains that the reason humans are the only species known to worship deities and believe in an afterlife is because of a human-specific mental disorder that typically comes with either heavy medication or institutionalization. Then imagine the faces of all the believers within earshot. I think they would either ignore or kill the messenger (perhaps literally).
Varki is at least avoiding to frame it as a psychiatric entity, but if you proved through hard lab-science that schizophrenia-genes are the culprit, then you might have death threats coming at you (assuming MORT doesn’t again kick in and overwrite the behavioral pattern).
At least, that’s the scenario that first comes to mind. Saying “Humans evolved to deny reality” is still more socially acceptable than “The entire species is suffering from a very severe mental disorder”.
Thanks, got it.
This was the first quote (by me) that I added to the sidebar favorite quotes:
My dear Rob,
How can you say that you don’t appreciate poetry when you have penned a classic as this?
Forgive me for not giving due credit and admiration until now. You have been too modest in concealing hidden talents.
I miss the limericks of doom by Benjamin the Donkey. I think you should have another go at a limerick that displays Cactus in a favourable light. Maybe that could be a group project, I’m sure there are other keen poets amongst us.
Hope you’re going well, friend.
Thanks for the kind words Gaia but a limerick is not poetry. It’s a crisp, few lines of text that follow strict rules that an engineer can grok.
I was inspired by the great Benjamin the Donkey and good friend of deceased friend Gail Zawacki. Benjamin unfortunately seems to have retired.
Writing a CACTUS limerick is a great idea. I’ll try to come up with something.
I propose we have a friendly un-Denial competition and I publish all the contributions in a fresh post and then we vote to select the best with the winner getting the coveted second to the top position in the sidebar favorite quotes.
If best lines occur in several contributions maybe we can try to merge them into one super awesome limerick.
That’s a very interesting idea.
If I understand you correctly, MORT could be a variant of schizophrenia, that was selected for to enable an extended theory of mind to emerge and persist.
This implies modern humans are analogous to their pet dogs, which are wolves with a variant of Down’s syndrome.
If true, this might help with acceptance and empathy for those of us with defective genes knowing that 99.9% of the people we are surrounded by really are crazy.
I don’t remember if Dr. Varki already proposed this idea. It’s possible he has. I would have to search his book and papers to confirm.
I asked Gemini to summarize schizophrenia:
This implies there is little hope we will succeed at spreading CACTUS awareness to extend modernity a little.
I only have access to Varki’s papers, not his Denial book, but as far as I can tell, the term “schizophrenia” does not appear in https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-25466-7_6
Neither does the term “psychosis” (which is well-established as the inability to tell what is and is not real)
I search his book and found 0 occurrences of “psychosis” and 2 occurrences of “schizophrenia”, one of which might be relevant:
I emailed you a link to Dr. Varki’s book.
Roger that. Thanks!
Good work J. Doe, makes a lot of sense..
No friday night movie recommendations, but maybe this will give you some entertainment. H/T megacancer for finding this channel Found Footage Fest. I’ve spent all day watching some of the cheesiest clips in existence.
HR training videos about sexual harassment and workplace safety are my favorites. I’m sure we’ve all had to sit through some of these.
I also love anything poking fun at those cringeworthy morning shows.
Chop & Steele instantly reminded me of a hilarious classic from the 90s, The Ambiguously Gay Duo.
I don’t know if I should laugh or cry but we can all lose our minds together at un-Denial.
P.S. In today’s video from Nate Hagens I sensed he too is losing his mind, in part because his country is funding a genocide in Lebanon where his meditation teacher lives and who had friends recently murdered by US/Israel.
I think I can speak on behalf of evolution when I confidently state that sanity is simply overrated – MORT proves it!
rock + water + CO2 = simple life + 2 billion years = eukaryotic cell -> complex life + fire = homo sapiens + MORT = behaviorally modern humans + fossil energy = modernity + 200 years = non-renewable resource depletion -> CACTUS
Oh no! The mark of the Beast. 666 😂
Very cool comment. The universal blueprints for the peak of what’s possible.
I have something better:
Imagine you have two sloths. One you keep as is, the other you flip on its MORT switch with freshly grafted human CACTUS firemonkey DNA. This is what would happen:
Perhaps the clerical-military dictatorship of Iran might begin by making peace with the Iranian people, whom they have terrorised for decades. Torture, brutal public executions, etc.
They came to power in a ruthless bloodbath – I know people who were there and barely escaped with their lives- and have maintained themselves as a tyranny ever since.
Pointing this out is not, of course, to excuse the actions of the Pentagon in assaulting Iran and murdering innocents.
Both sides have innocent blood on their hands.
Do you know of a good book that presents an unbiased carefully researched history of modern Iran?
Hello Rob,
For what it’s worth, and I have not read it, Professor Marandi has repeatedly and highly recommended this book to Westerners seeking more insight into Iran’s geopolitical situation. Published in 2013, it chronicles the US’ longstanding and misguided foreign policy with Iran. Whether or not the authors were unbiased, the current state of affairs is the disastrous proof of that agenda.
Going to Tehran by Flint and Hillary Mann Leverett
Thanks for reminding me Gaia. I’ve heard Marandi recommend that book several times but I forgot the title. It’s available on Z-Library.
I have had some ‘lively’ debates with Andrew about this topic, stating we in the west have received much propaganda on what life in Iran is really like. I tried to explain how the protests/riots in Jan were coordinated by Mossad and CIA via the starlink terminals, and when they cut the internet, the ‘rioting’ stopped.
Andrew on the other hand, has read many books from modern day Iran and watched lots of movies as well. So he would align with what Cynic has said above and believes the regime has been very violent. But the thing is, it smacks of hypocrisy to criticise another regime, when we look at the history of west, and how Empire has ruined the world. But I guess that was Cynic’s point, both regimes have blood on their hands.
As always, is complex and nuanced, and personal stories help flesh it out.
A list of some Iranian films here.
https://movie-reviews.com.au/search/node/Iran
This one specifically about the executions looks very grim but also some great scenery of Iran.
https://movie-reviews.com.au/thereisnoevil
Iran seems to be the only country in the world doing something meaningful to stop the Gaza and Lebanon genocides.
Unlike US, Iran abides by its agreements and does what is says it will do.
Unlike US, Iran does not initiate violence, it only retaliates.
Unlike US, Iran provides advance warning of targets they intend to hit so civilians can vacate.
Unlike US, Iran does not tell US what kind of government it should have, or how its citizens should live.
Unlike US, Iran does not tell US it cannot sell its oil for USD.
Unlike US, Iran does not assassinate religious and political leaders while negotiating with them.
That’s plenty good enough for me.
i understand and agree with all that, but the treatment of their own people surely must factor in? The personal stories of what it is like to live in the country – do you not believe them at all? I want to read that book to have more info, but I can’t dismiss the lives of those, like in that movie above, for civilians to have to do the executing as part of their military training. I think the corruption in the west is just as bad, it just takes a differnt form.
I’m ignorant of how Iran treated their people in the past.
I can imagine some harsh treatment was delivered to people who collaborated with foreign governments to overthrow a democratically elected government.
I heard Iran recently hung some people who collaborated with the CIA to foment social unrest. I’d do the same thing.
It’s really none of our business.
How would Canadians feel if Iran sent in agents to help overthrow the Canadian government because it was harming children by coercing mRNA transfections? Even though Iran had good intentions we’d still say it was none of their business.
Is anyone else here feeling grief and anxiety about biosphere collapse and the impending collapse of modernity?
It is all perspective Stellar.
The biosphere doesn’t care, for it this is just another phase change. Something will come from this massive destruction in 10 – 100 million years. One must not take this personally as there is nothing personal in its intent. Do you mourn for the loss of the 99.9% of species that are already extinct?
As far as modernity, one must accept that it was just a fast paced incredible ride for humanity. That is coming to an end. Will the roller coaster collapse before we make it to the end of the ride who knows. Just enjoy the ride as it is a privilege that seems to be a very rare to experience.
Get busy living.
Life is a terminal sexually transmitted disease.
Good quote. I added it to the sidebar.
thank you. finally made it.
I do. We live in such a beautiful world and so much of what we humans do destroys it. But at the same time, we wealthy humans get to live a very nice life of comfort and convinience. Something I take heart in is that biospheres can recover surprisingly fast when the assult on them stops.
Yes I do too Stellar, but I also really appreciate the type of perspective that Niko offered below. It’s not personal and the Earth will shake us off and restart again at some stage. It’s just our own little lives and that fear of how it will all unravel that is persistent. I think of that film you posted the other day often, Greenwashed, and really it will be so much better when it’s all over. There is so much suffering on the planet atm. It’s rare for a community of folks to feel so deeply for the Earth and to also understand what’s about to hit, and to still be here to console each other and to carry on, with whatever comfort we find. I am appreciative of all the posts you have brought here and how you can stay the long haul and not look away. Thank you.
Can you do something about it?
Yes I do. It is so much suffering, but we cant do anything.
This conversation might be of interest for the grief & anxiety.
Is that last sentence subjective or objective?😂
Ok, so that’s what I fed AI. The rest of this is what I cherry picked from it:
The philosophical gap between “Jane Goodall disciples” and “Thomas Ligotti disciples” comes down to how they value life itself versus the suffering that life requires.
1. The first group represents Ecocentrism. Their focus is on the health and integrity of the entire ecosystem.
2. The second group follows Thomas Ligotti’s brand of philosophical pessimism and radical Antinatalism.
Ligotti’s disciples shed more denial because they don’t stop at blaming humans—they blame the very biology that makes life possible.
Many who view Ligotti’s work as a philosophical breakthrough see it as the final stage of intellectual honesty. In this view, most human thought—even radical environmentalism—is just another defense mechanism designed to keep us from looking at the raw, horrific mechanics of biology.
Here is why that perspective is considered a breakthrough:
In this framework, the denial being shed is the hope that anything can be fixed. It’s the transition from wanting to save the world to wanting to save everything from the world.
That’s the “paradoxical mercy” of philosophical pessimism. While it looks like nihilism from the outside, many find it to be the ultimate form of compassion. Here’s how that logic works.
In the Jane Goodall example, compassion is limited to the “system.” In the Ligotti example, compassion is focused on the individual experience of pain, leading to the radical idea that no one else should ever have to feel it again. It shifts the goal from “How do we thrive?” to “How do we comfort each other while the lights are still on?”
It’s interesting how that works—it’s like a “pressure relief valve” for the soul. When you view existence through that lens, the breakthrough makes life easier because it strips away the heavy, artificial expectations of society. If the whole thing is a nightmare or a biological accident, then:
It turns life into a “bonus round.” You’re already here, the stakes are actually zero in the grand cosmic scheme, so you might as well be as gentle as possible until the end. It replaces anxiety with a kind of quiet, dark peace.
Wow – this is brilliant, trust AI to give the best, more coherent analysis of Ligotti vs deep green ecocentrism. But kudos for your prompt.
So based on all this – you should be a zen master by now – showing us all the way! It’s quite profound the conclusions drawn here, and I wonder how close I am to tumbling down this rabbit hole, after hearing my own desperate clutching for life today, in my words with you and Gaia. Rejecting that biological wiring, it’s the toughest thing, and it can’t be ‘done’ by anyone, it happens or it doesn’t.
This is what drew me in to the website at the very beginning, as I cottoned on to something you were expressing about Ligotti, but simulataneously felt repulsed by it too. I want to be in the first camp, as the biophilia is very strong, in all of us, maybe nearly as strong as survival and reproductive drive. The longing/love for Earth. In fact both drives are intermingled.
I don’t want the last amount of time to be desperate. And most of all, other people and the connections we make, are very important to me. That’s why I am here and the friendships forged and what we share, well I can’t share it with my family, they are no where close to this, despite glimpses, the denial is deep and nothing penetrates.
So the Ligotti way …
This is the best para of all, and gels with Gaia’s Bonus Day – I hope we can all live it more together. Where ever we are…
Several things occur to me.
Thank you for this. I’m currently navigating Ligotti, nihilism, the cracked and warped mirror of consciousness, and the Existential Void, and how the significance of the mastery of Fire removed us from the normal dynamics of life on a finite planet….making us a distinct class of beings.
The summary you’ve shared above resonates with everything I’m learning right now. I’m unmoored. Most of the traditional anchors, narratives, beliefs, and rationalizations I’ve lived with, have been invalidated…..and consequently, so has the cognitive dissonance and the turmoil I’ve experienced for years. I had a common misperception that without these anchors I would experience some sort of psychological harm…..as opposed to what I now feel now, is the complex PTSD of all aspects of modernity. But nothing has changed, except everything. I am surrounded by energetic ghosts declaring themselves and their pain in frantic gestures within the cages of this society, and those very gestures maintain both their pain and imprisonment within it. This is still reverberating in me.
water storage; I don’t know the particulars of the construction of your house, but I suggest that the garage floor will be reinforced with re-mesh, to bear the weight of a vehicle, which presses down at the point of contact of four tires for several square inches.. Pressure per square foot can be spread out evenly and effectively reduced by placing a sheet of plywood or oriented strand board, suitable for sub flooring or underlayment. Stress caused by the weight will be distributed over broader surface. Here in NM, slabs frequently crack. Either due to uneven curing and/or changes in soil or grade. The stem wall around the edges of the foundation are also reinforced and that will help prevent further movement. I think most of this is covered in the most common building codes. Anyway, that’s what I’d do. Keeping water close to needs and out of sight is a good idea. Something to think about.
To everyone here. I am deeply appreciative. One of the difficult things to bear about this knowledge is the isolation it causes….for me, anyway.
Thank you.
I feel very appreciative of any one else grappling with these issues so thank you for sharing what you did, unmorred is a good word for it. And the isolation, if you live alone among others who cannot and will not see it, until its too late, is well, yes isolating and crazy making. I thought i would outgrow that feeling, but it still flares up at times.
Thanks for your kind response. I keep hearing Janis Joplin singing, from “Me and Bobby McGee”, “ Freedom’s just another word for nothin’ left to lose.”
Potatoes.
Thank you.
This is how I see it, in my emotional flatness that comes with being a schizoid:
The second law of thermodynamics says that entropy in a closed system can only increase. Which means that all stars must die. All galaxies must die. All black holes must die. All lifeforms must die. All individuals must die. If there is any reason to grief at all, it’s that we exist in an at least three-dimensional system called the universe which is governed by laws that demand the cessation of all complex structures inside of it – which, paradoxically, is also what makes life possible in the first place: without entropy, time would not have a direction, and without thermodynamics, things would just randomly explode in your face (assuming you got so far to having a face; in a world where energy in a closed system is not constant, that seems rather unlikely) or simply blink out of existence spontaneously.
If anything, I find our situation fascinatingly amusing in a very morbid, bone-dry, intellectual sort of way. What makes our universe possible to exist simultaneously undermines its existence, and the very same concept somehow came up with an emotional being that can measure gravitational waves, but cannot accept that it and everything around it must necessarily cease at some point.
This song here summarizes it best, I think:
Yes Stellar, the uncertainty of it all makes me anxious for sure. I worry about my kids a lot…
Up way to early this morning and Quark scared the crap out of me.
Forget oil, the bond market is the problem.
Being mediated by the consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the rise in the price of oil and the imminent rationing that we are going to suffer in many parts of the world, it is difficult to think that there is another problem greater than this.
To explain it I will use a simile.
The world is like a patient with a degenerative disease, who is going through a serious crisis. The solution is a harsh treatment, which will limit mobility and change habits, reducing quality of life. Furthermore, we know that there is no cure and it will get worse over time – until it kills the patient.
On the other hand, an armed silent killer has entered the room. He shot the patient’s heart. If the bullet hits the heart, it will be dead right then and there. If the bullet only grazes the heart, he will go through difficulties, but recovery will be complete, until the degenerative disease eliminates him from this world.
The patient with the crisis and degenerative disease is the world and the shortage of oil in the medium and long term. The silent killer that has fired its gun is the fiat system facing a crisis as a result of tensions in the bond market. If the bullet hits the heart, it means that the bond market collapses and with it the fiduciary system is destroyed. Money no longer exists and all transactions disappear, returning to the stone age immediately. If the bullet does not hit the heart, the system recovers and everything returns to the “normal” of the degenerative disease, after the postoperative period.
Returning to reality, the truth is that everything is very complicated. , , , , , ,
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/olvidense-del-petroleo-el-problema
AJ
AJ, do I understand the sequence correctly?
What are possible paths out of this mess?
Any other ideas?
Rob,
I think your timeline is pretty accurate.
However, I think Quark in that article would say that the patient dies either way. So, maybe #5, 6, 7 are where you could find some disagreement from Quark.
He seems to be saying that dementia (lack of oil and it’s increasing shortfall over time gives us overshoot/death) will kill us. But irrespective of that, there’s a guy with a gun who has just shot us near/in the heart (the bond market is going to collapse because with a fiat currency where you just keep printing more and more at some point trust goes out the window and you might never be able to do anything to bring it back).
As to possible paths out of the mess. None.
Even Covid lockdowns wouldn’t fix the problem because how do people get money to live. Sure lockdowns would reduce oil demand and price but you would still get hyperinflation from the money printing so people can live (and probable fiat/bond market collapse) and you get CACTUS,
But what do I know? I know nothing about economics and this is all way above my pay grade!!!
AJ
Hmmm..
I thought I understood his metaphor with the shot to the heart being inflation caused by US attacking Iran which then triggers money printing.
I’m thinking poorer people can survive for a while, but not if we trigger full on CACTUS.
Hideaway, do you think this has any chance of delaying CACTUS?
I checked and the performance claims made here seem to be correct.
Cost of the electric truck is about 2x a diesel truck.
Operating cost of electric is about 10x less than diesel. (This might be wrong because I have no data on battery life and replacement cost.)
I want Hideaway’s answer! I read the twitter (X) post and everybody seems to think this is the real deal. But I am convinced that Musk is a charlatan (although maybe a genius too?).
PLEASE Uncle Hideaway.
AJ
So we want to build a whole lot more stuff, as in EV trucks, charging stations, using gobs more copper, more solar more wind more batteries, all from more factories, more mines etc.
Let’s cut to the chase, we’ll solve entropy of our civilization by increasing entropy. What could possibly go wrong??
This IBC tank has created more hissy fits than I’ve had in the last ten years.
Reminds me of the first permanent english settlement 1607 Jamestown. And how they sucked at living off the land because there were too many fancy gentlemen and not enough laborers/farmers. By 1610 everyone had died off. 500 people down to 60 (tobacco ended up saving the colony). Their survival skills were so pathetic (to be fair, they did encounter some bad luck with the weather) that the natives didn’t even view them as a threat. It was entertainment for them… well, that’s me with this goddamn water tank. But instead of the natives, its Mother Nature laughing her fucking ass off at me for choosing to live in one of the hottest locations on the planet.
After more never-ending research, the garage is a no go because of some cracks in the concrete floor. So now the whole plan changed. It’s gonna stay in the backyard (in a spot that provides the most shade) covered & empty until I have a strong sense of SHTF. And I’ll probably still put it in the garage at that point cuz this damn research has me convinced that just one pinhole of AZ sunlight equals tons of algae… the goddamn Blob never stops!
And I’m sure my timing will be just fine.😉 As soon as I decide to fill it up, just as I’m turning on the hose…Bam! complete water outage.
ps. Theres a movie called Conspiracy Theory starring Mel Gibson where he has some type of obsession with the book The Catcher in the Rye. Has to buy it anytime he sees hit. Has thousands of them in his cluttered apartment. This is me anytime I walk into a store nowadays.
I cannot believe that my survival drive is this powerful. It’s embarrassing. Went to walmart earlier just to get one thing – a new shower liner. Ended up also getting 60 tins of sardines. Have never eaten one in my life, but Rob’s constant sales pitch finally wore me down. Also got 54 pounds of dry cat food. 90 more bullets for the shotgun. And three big packs of toilet paper (I probably have 3yrs worth).
pss. This song has me dreaming about our old plans to have everyone living at Gaia’s commune.
LOL !!!!
I wonder if adding some bleach to the water tank would control algae?
Liquid bleach has a finite shelf life so I bought some powdered bleach used to shock pools for sterilizing water when I don’t want to use a filter.
I’m pretty sure in one of my early pretips I stressed the importance of stocking what you eat on regular basis, thus ensuring food stores naturally rotate, and nothing goes to waste.
You should try a few of those delicious sardines before buying more.
Although in your situation they won’t go to waste because your cat will love them.
Also, in case it’s not obvious, I use sardines as a metaphor for many types of canned protein including sockeye salmon, pink salmon, smoked salmon, tuna, smoked oysters, baby clams, corned beef, chicken, ham, liver pate, and spam.
I have the highest quantity of sardines and tuna because they are the least expensive.
Yeah, bleach has been a big part of this research project. It’s needed in AZ even if I put the tank in the garage. I have two options:
But I have read stories from AZ people where both options still ended up with algae. Goddamn blob!
Our ancestors survived because they were mobile.
So leave Arizona; it’s clearly one of the dumbest places to be.
It’s very simple.
Or make sure you have bullets for the self-administered end- but that would be a very great pity.
Don’t feel embarrassed. This is exactly where I was at the other day when feeling teary and pathetic. A failed doomer coz can’t accept death gracefully and a failed prepper, as in comparison to many on this site, utterly half assed and dismal preps.
So just taking a break from it by getting out of my own environment/ house and enjoy modernity and beautiful outdoors before SHTF. But what usually happens is positive in the morning then get sad or maudlin in the afternoon. What is, is and can’t be otherwise so just go with whatever shows up. For now it’s a mango smoothie at a Cafe so I can imagine or taste life in Gaias tropical paradise..
Yes, keep it in the dark! What’s wrong with the garage?
And also, maybe don’t even try to keep it potable. Straight out of the tank for washing, but for drinking, look in to buying a Berkey water filter.
BTW, We have 3 IBCs and one big plastic cistern tank. Even those of us in the sticks on a well still need electricity for pumping, so some stored water is a good thing.
Our garage has some cracks in the floor. Research shows that these 2500 pound tanks can do some major damage to the concrete (especially if there are already cracks), causing the tank to end up splitting and flooding the garage.
But yeah, this thing is going in the garage when I finally commit to filling it up. Had already looked into that Berkey filter but the price turned me off. Based on my research I’m pretty confident that being in the garage and just adding the aquamira treatment will be good to go.
Chris if you don’t want algae then just cover the IBC with a tarp or paint the cube with a light concealing paint. You need to see what will stick to HDPE plastics. Proably a tar based paint. You could also clad it in metal, wood or plastic.
Or better yet, dig a hole and bury it. The water will be cooler and more pleasant to drink.
LOL. You sound like Charles. My survival drive is strong, but not that strong.
It will be good training for your future as a small scale farmer.
95% of farming is moving shit from point A to B, and then moving it back from point B to A.
LOL!!!! That is exactly what we have been doing all these years, just shifting things from one place to another, and then often back again, be it soil, wood, plants, and yes, even shit! Something in the universe must be having a laugh with our species, I sure hope so.
Don’t know about the electric trucks but we got a battery powered wheelbarrow last year and it’s been a game changer.
LOL. It’s funny but it’s actually true.
I’m currently reading this fascinating book: https://www.judithdschwartz.com/water-in-plain-sight.
Chapter 2 mentions Brad Lancaster harvesting rainwater in Tucson, Arizona: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Lancaster.
Chapter 6 is centered around passive dew harvesting/condensation, and mentions this setting: https://www.harvestingrainwater.com/case-study/dew-harvesting-roof-in-west-texas/.
As well as other projects (FogQuest, Warka Water, Groasis Waterboxxx, Tal-Ya Water Technologies).
I don’t know, in practice, what any of this is worth, but I’m convinced that flows matter more than stocks. And experimenting is fun, especially with like-minded people.
On the front of this book it says, author of ‘How cows save the planet’ and Lyle Lewis has much criticism of this idea, centred on the work of Allen Savory and his Holistic Management, which I used to think was a good practice, not any more.
The summary on her book includes this:
Which Lyle would see as a type of greenwashing.
https://lylel.substack.com/p/all-that-is-unsavory-about-holistic
Not to discredit the whole book by Judith Schwartz, as I have heard of the innovative work of Lancaster before, and it sounds amazing, but in terms of restoring ecosystems with cattle grazing, I don’t think that is possible. The method might be better than some others, but still only in human terms and not for the planet.
Hello renaee.
Thank you for Lyle’s article.
Yes. My guess is that it depends on the starting context. Savory’s work might have been positive where he applied it, and then became yet another greenwashing argument, which is unfortunate, but not uncommon. Also, maybe it has to be seen as a first practical step. There are many places in this world, that are now at ground zero, and it can be quite challenging (to say the least), to bootstrap them, while making some kind of a profit.
But truly, I don’t know: I have worked with trees, never with cattle.
I found the first comment interesting too: https://substack.com/note/c-212518454.
In any case, the book “Water in plain sight” is not principally about cattle, even though Savory’s approach is mentioned in the first and last chapter.
The book covers a lot of ground and has to be superficial because of that. I find it’s a good entry point to discover a variety of research and practical approaches about water.
The main takeaway, for me, is that plants have a tremendous effect on the water cycle (to the control of rain and aerial streams). But for that, there needs to be plants, and for that there needs to be water. So it starts with the techniques that retain water, mostly in the soil. Animals have an important role, in that they incorporate carbon in the soil, instead of letting it oxidise back into the atmosphere (through fire). And so there is an intricate link between the water cycle, the carbon cycle, the climate, plants, animals and the soil.
Just read the comment, many good points, and like you said, it all depends on the starting point. And if the point is survival for humans, than the comment is spot on. I hope you are enjoying your work and reading, I imagine you are, i get it, planting to bring the water back, is all that makes sense. And the animals with borrowing and tunneling, help the water seep in too.
Yes 🙂
Also, that it is about getting by with the water that is there and can be passively collected (rain/dew), rather than pumped or pipelined.
That’s good advice if you don’t live in the hot desert. But the reviews I’ve been paying most attention to are from people that live in AZ and almost all of them have issues with algae no matter what they do to try and keep the sunlight out.
Garage (with bleach or water treatment) seems to be the only way to keep the blob out of the tank.
Forget the 1000l water tank and get the hell out of arizona. That’s my advice. Sorry for being blunt
Thank you Perran for saying the obvious to my earnest but sometimes misdirected bro. We all do understand that’s it’s not quite as easy as that but being in the middle of a desert is not a good mid or long term scenario, whatever comes. Hope you’re enjoying the final days of late autumn warmth before another Tassie winter sets in.
Namaste.
Pharmaceuticals are going to be a big problem soon.
I have a lifetime supply of everything I want except antibiotics which don’t store well.
Is freezing the answer if one can run a freezer on solar and battery. Though cold storage only from dc current without battery is possible.
Well I got a bunch of those “Fish” antibiotics a few years ago before Covid. Now since Covid and the hydroxychloroquine/Ivermectin misinformation you can’t even buy “Fish” antibiotics.
I was under the impression that the U.S. military did a study of drugs some years ago and put a rest to the theory that pharmaceuticals don’t store well for long term? Was that wrong?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelf_Life_Extension_Program
AJ
Preptip:
My understanding is that dry drugs mostly store indefinitely.
Wet drugs, especially after they are opened, may have shorter shelf life due to oxidation.
Antibiotics are biologically active and must be stored in fridge or freezer but I do not know how long they will last. I do know from my own experiments that bread yeast keeps well in freezer much longer than the internet says.
I remember the fish antibiotics. I almost bought some. What do you know about them being unavailable now?
Everywhere I used to go on-line no longer sells them. Maybe I haven’t looked in the right places?
AJ
It’s my biggest worry. I’ve got a son that need carbamezipene. I dread the day we can’t get hold of it
Maybe China can bailout US farmers in the Midwest?
Chart on lead time changes for grid components in the US.
I imagine those 2026 lead times are before oil buffers start to run low next month.
Looks like AI expansion will be toast.
CEO of NVIDEA says power requirements can be met by designing AI systems to throttle down when required, and then convincing power generators to sell the 40% of excess capacity they keep in reserve for the coldest and hottest days of the year.
I’d guess most AIs will be killed when the market bubble pops and AIs are forced to fund operations and expansion from profits.
I use an ad blocker and I’m not going to pay for an AI subscription.
This is not a spoof.
We’ve become numb to this insanity. Imagine President Eisenhower or Kennedy posting something like this.
A lot of people now believe the US attack on the girl’s school on the first day of the war that killed 160 children was not a mistake and was intended to shock Iran’s military leaders that had children enrolled in that school.
I just leaned that the sinking of an Iranian s warship in the early days of the war was also a horrific war crime. The ship was disabled with a torpedo and the crew was assembled on deck to abandon ship, and then 90 minutes later, another torpedo was sent which sunk the ship killing about 100 sailors.
Both are serious war crimes.
A war crime is a crime only if 1/ You lose the war; and 2/ you end up in the hands of your enemies.
Of course, this does show a sad degeneration of naval morals, as sailors have for several centuries generally shown mercy to fellow sailors who are no longer fighting them, at least in the West.
For instance, he Spanish sailors captured after Trafalgar were astonished the Brits didn’t shoot them – the Spanish custom – but instead gave them a dinner to celebrate and toast their bravery.