Until recently there have been 3 main lenses through which to view our overshoot predicament: debt, energy, and ecology.
Each lens exposes a different aspect of the picture, but not the complete picture.
Each lens focusses on different threats, with different time frames, and different consequences, and each lens suggests a different optimal response.
Overshoot awareness varies by lens and group within society. Awareness of leaders is generally higher than citizens, and in some cases this is deliberate and warranted because broad citizen awareness of the debt and energy threats would increase the probability of short term collapse.
For leaders and citizens that see through any of the lenses, their understanding tends to be incomplete, which has resulted in plans of action that will not help, or that make the situation worse.
This incomplete understanding is caused in part because the issues are very complex, and in part because some aspects of human overshoot have no acceptable or feasible solution, and in part because of the human tendency to deny unpleasant realities, as explained by Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory.
Hideaway, a frequent contributor at un-Denial, Peak Oil Barrel, Our Finite World and other sites, recently introduced a new lens we have named CACTUS, which focusses on all non-renewable resources and the complexity required to extract them.
I think the CACTUS lens provides the clearest view of what is going on, what we should expect in the short to medium term, and what we should do.
The CACTUS lens changes what is in the best interests of citizens to understand.
The debt and energy lenses suggest citizens should remain in the dark.
The ecology lens suggests it does not matter what citizens understand because the ecology threats are longer term than debt, energy, and CACTUS, and because awareness of ecology issues have not and will not improve anything of substance due to the nature of modernity.
With the introduction of the CACTUS lens, it is now in the best short term interests of all groups: countries, leaders, and citizens, for awareness to be as widespread as possible.
Achieving broad CACTUS awareness will be difficult because it is very unpleasant, and therefore will be blocked by our genetic denial behavior, however I propose one idea to start the discussion on how we might spread CACTUS awareness.
Awareness Lens: Debt
Theory:
- Modernity requires abundant credit;
- Because most of our mines, machines, technology, and structures require significant up front capital to build;
- Which requires a fractional reserve debt backed monetary system;
- Which is now used by every country in the world;
- Which by design requires economic growth to not collapse;
- Because money is loaned into existence and growth is needed to pay interest;
- Which means our economic system requires infinite growth on a finite planet;
- Which of course is impossible and means we should expect growth to slow and prosperity to decline, as they are;
- Culminating in a dramatic and harmful economic reset;
- However modernity will survive and will rebuild until the next bubble pops.
Status :
- Quite a few citizens see through the debt lens, maybe a significant minority.
- Most aware citizens assume the reset is a ways off in the future.
- Some people prepare to weather a storm with cash, gold, bitcoin, or sardines.
- Others trust or hope that central banks will print enough money to kick the can past their expiry.
- Leaders understand and acknowledge the debt problem but are careful to not cause panic because herd emotions could trigger a reset.
- Leaders are also careful to not explain the driver of the debt problem, energy depletion, as will be discussed in the next section on the energy lens.
- The debt threat is closer and more severe than our leaders let on as demonstrated by:
- Social unrest everywhere is rising because living standards are falling and the wealth gap is widening.
- Geopolitical tensions are rising.
- Democracies are oscillating between wider extremes.
- Most countries have historically high levels of growing debt.
- Growth has slowed, and the only growth possible now comes at the expense of adding more debt than the growth it buys, which is unsustainable.
- No political party in power anywhere reduces their deficit or balances their budget because it’s now impossible without crashing their system. The US DOGE effort lasted 5 months before leaders gave up and juiced the deficit to new record highs.
- Central banks work hard behind the curtain to keep our everything bubble inflated, and to prevent any significant correction of stock or asset prices. When I was young it was normal for the economy and stock market to experience cycles. We don’t permit cycles anymore. Today there is so much debt and so little growth that a significant correction will result in a reset (aka crash).
- Printing bazookas are used to blast any threat before it builds momentum, like the banking system repo problem that covid provided cover for unprecedented money printing.
- Our leaders tried but failed to use covid as an excuse to implement the tools needed to manage an economic reset like digital ids/currencies for rationing scarce necessities, and for enabling negative interest rates, and tried via “The Great Reset” propaganda campaign to get us ready to accept nationalization of assets (aka “you will own nothing and be happy”). They will try again.
Implications:
- The debt lens implies a zero-sum game: In a no growth world, one country’s gain is another country’s loss.
- Our leaders believe that a country that succeeds in harming its competitors will experience less damage from an economic reset. The goal is to ensure opponents reset before you do, on the assumption that this will prevent or delay your own reset by gaining control of more growth generating assets and markets.
- Hence we see the weaponization of tariffs and trade, regime change operations, and proxy wars intended to weaken or capture opponents.
Conclusions:
- A debt reset is mathematically inevitable and will reduce the standard of living for the majority via deflation and/or inflation.
- Debt resets are hard to predict and control because herd emotions drive the process.
- Leaders have good reasons to not want citizens to be aware of the seriousness of the debt problem.
- Leaders are operating on the assumption of a zero-sum game.
- In the CACTUS lens section we’ll see that the zero-sum game assumption is wrong, which means the current strategy will make things worse for all countries.
Awareness Lens: Energy
Theory:
- Modernity requires abundant net energy;
- Which is the energy that remains after using energy to extract and refine energy;
- Because all of our food, water, minerals, technology, products, and services are produced and delivered by machines powered by energy.
- Diesel is the keystone energy that powers our vital mining machines, tractors, combines, trucks, trains, and ships.
- Renewable energy is not a solution to non-renewable depletion because renewables require abundant non-renewable energy to build, install, maintain, and augment for 24/7 supply.
- Discovery of new fossil energy reserves is much slower than depletion of existing reserves, and the gap is growing.
- The quality of non-renewable energy reserves decline as they deplete;
- Which means net energy is falling;
- Which explains why growth is slowing, and prosperity is declining, and debt is growing faster than GDP everywhere.
- We should expect the trend to continue and accelerate.
- Leaders believe modernity will continue for those countries that have access to energy.
Status:
- Few citizens see through the energy lens.
- There are many false energy beliefs in wide circulation including net zero, peak oil demand, abiotic oil, green energy, renewables outpacing fossils, hydrogen economy, nuclear renaissance, space mining, circular economy, etc., etc..
- These beliefs are nonsense not grounded in sound science or economics, but the issues are complex, and it is difficult for a citizen to determine the truth, especially with deliberate misdirection from leaders, and with MORT driven hope and denial driving behavior.
- Denial is a strong force that fogs the energy lens because, short of a near zero probability miracle, there is no solution, and the outlook is steadily worsening living standards.
- Most leaders, with help from their energy aware militaries, understand what is going on, and know the energy threat is imminent. Evidence for this includes:
- Inflation of energy intensive products, like food, is high; energy intensive infrastructure is not being properly maintained; energy intensive manufacturing, like weapons, is struggling to keep up with demand despite plentiful printed money available; war is shifting to lower energy methods like drones; and as also seen through the debt lens, debt is accelerating, living standards are falling, the wealth gap is widening, geopolitical tensions are rising, and democracies are at risk.
- The EIA this year announced that fracked oil is peaking. Fracked oil is the unexpected savior that bought us an extra decade after conventional oil peaked.
- Leaders do not want their citizens to panic, or to spook the stock market bubble which depends on growth, so they do not discuss the energy problem, and work hard to distract citizens with nonsense like optimism for a renewable transition, or by stoking emotions over socially divisive issues.
- Trump reversed his no more regime change promises after being sworn in and briefed about US debt and oil forecasts.
- Every country with significant exportable oil reserves that is not controlled by the US empire is either under attack or being regime changed including Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and Nigeria. Even friends with oil, or close to oil, like Canada and Greenland, have been threatened with annexation.
- Propaganda is successfully being used to convince citizens that regime change operations are to prevent terrorism or drug trafficking, not to control oil.
- China is stockpiling strategic oil reserves.
- A few countries, like Germany, made an honest attempt to run their economies with renewable energy, but it’s now obvious to leaders everywhere that the renewable dream has failed. German leaders now want war with energy rich Russia.
- The UK, having drained its own oil reserves, now wants war with energy rich Russia.
- Hail Mary investments praying for a miracle are being made in AI and nuclear energy.
Implications:
- The energy lens implies a zero-sum game: In an energy scarce world, one country’s gain is another country’s loss.
- Our leaders understand their country’s prosperity requires non-renewable energy, and that it must be secured by any means necessary, including taking it by force from others.
- Countries are preparing for war by increasing military expenditures, even at the expense of social services demanded by citizens.
- Nuclear arms treaties are being abandoned, and the arms race is restarting.
- Lessons learned during the cold war about the dangers of nuclear war are being ignored, and red lines are increasingly flirted with.
- It’s hard to imagine how nuclear war can be avoided given that everyone’s survival depends on oil, and the zero-sum game assumption of our leaders.
Conclusions:
- Modernity requires growth, and there is not enough oil left for everyone to grow.
- Leaders have good reasons to not want citizens to be aware of the seriousness of the energy problem.
- Leaders are operating on the assumption of a zero-sum game.
- In the CACTUS lens section we’ll see that the zero-sum game assumption is wrong, which means the current strategy will make things worse for all countries.
Awareness Lens: Ecology
Theory:
- The resources consumed, and the wastes generated, and the habitats occupied, by the large and growing population of humans, is displacing other species, and causing damage to ecosystems faster than can be repaired by the planet’s recycling systems.
Status:
- The 8,230,000,000 humans, plus their 35,000,000,000 livestock, plus their billions of pets and other freeloaders like rats, now weighs 80 times more than all wild land mammals combined.
- Humans use 30-40% of the net primary productivity of all sunlight hitting the planet, plus 16,000,000,000 liters per day of ancient sunlight stored as oil, plus 11,000,000,000 cubic meters per day of ancient sunlight stored as natural gas, plus 24,000,000,000 kilograms per day of ancient sunlight stored as coal.
- The sixth mass extinction is underway.
- Seven of nine planetary boundaries critical for survival have already been crossed including climate change, biodiversity, deforestation, fresh water, nitrogen cycle, pollution, and ocean acidification.
- We have already passed the 1.5C safe limit and are on a path to a 3+C temperature increase that is incompatible with civilization and agriculture by the end of this century.
- Biodiverse forests are being replaced with mono-crop agriculture.
- Fisheries are in decline.
- Sea level rise will damage many cities over the next century.
- Glacier loss threatens the survival of several countries.
- Chemical toxins and microplastics are harming the health of all life including humans.
- Awareness of leaders and citizens about the ecological problems varies widely.
- Most people are aware of some of the problems, but also tend to superficially simplify them down to one issue, CO2, that can be fixed with solar panels and electric vehicles.
- Few are aware of the breadth and depth of the problems.
- Many people deny the severity of the problems and/or that humans have caused the problems.
- Almost everyone denies the implications of the ecological problems, and the fact there is almost nothing that can be done to address them while maintaining modernity and our population.
- Every effort, by every country, and every organization, and every citizen, to address the above problems, has failed, and will continue to fail, at least until something forces an involuntary change to population and lifestyles.
Implications:
- The view through the ecology lens is dire.
- The long term implications are worse than those seen through the debt and energy lenses because we are damaging the ability for any human lifestyle to thrive, and are also harming many other species.
Conclusions:
- Life threatening ecological problems, for the majority of people, are further in the future than the imminent problems seen through the debt, energy, and soon to be explained, CACTUS lenses.
- All of the ecological problems are caused by the human species footprint which is the product of lifestyle and population.
- None of the ecological problems can be addressed without reducing per capita consumption or population, and the debt and CACTUS lenses show that modernity requires growth, which means the ecological problems are a classic predicament, a problem without an acceptable solution.
- The energy and CACTUS lenses show that growth will not continue, and the human footprint will soon shrink, which means there may be an improvement to future ecology trends.
- Many of the ecological problems we have created will repair quickly when the scale of the human enterprise shrinks.
- Some ecological problems will take a very long time to repair, and adaptation of surviving species will be required.
- As will be discussed in more detail in the next section, if we somehow became aware that the scale of humanity was going to decrease in the not too distant future, no matter what we do, then we might be able to motivate ourselves to address several ecological issues that would improve the quality of life for the survivors, such as burying nuclear waste, and protecting biodiverse forests and marine ecosystems.
Awareness Lens: CACTUS
CACTUS = Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System
The phrase “we’re cactus” is Australian slang meaning something is ruined, broken, or finished, often used to describe a situation where progress has stopped, such as a vehicle that won’t start.
The expression likely originated from the infamous prickly pear cactus, which once infested large parts of Australia before being controlled by the introduced Cactoblastis cactorum moth.
This slang is part of a broader set of Australian expressions for something being in disrepair or useless, including terms like “boonted,” “clapped-out,” “had the chad,” “had the bomb,” and “kaput”.
While “cactus” as a metaphor for being broken or ruined is well-established in Australian English, it is not commonly used in other English-speaking regions.
Theory:
- Modernity requires abundant minerals and energy.
- The majority of minerals and energy we use are non-renewable and finite.
- Recycling is economically and/or technically impossible for most minerals.
- For those minerals that can be recycled, there are losses in the recycling process that still result in long term depletion.
- The quality of mineral and energy reserves decline as they deplete, because we always harvest the best quality reserves first.
- Mineral and energy extraction technologies must increase in complexity to compensate for falling reserve quality to maintain flows of resources. For example, compare modern directional drilling now required for fracking with early oil rigs. Or the giant trucks and other machines now required to haul and process low grade copper ore.
- Rising complexity increases the materials, processes, skills, locations, and number of people needed to design and manufacture the technologies.
- Rising complexity requires a growing market to support the increasing cost of designing and manufacturing technologies. For example, a smaller population would not buy enough phones to make a TSMC factory in Taiwan viable, and therefore the advanced chips needed for oil exploration and extraction would not exist.
- A growing market requires a growing economy and population.
- A growing economy and population increases the consumption of all minerals and energy.
- Wastes generated by the growing economy and population create increasing frictions to further growth.
- This self-reinforcing complexity growth system drives an increase in mineral and energy flows until technology, markets, and population can no longer keep up with growing waste frictions and declining reserve qualities, and a critical mineral or energy becomes unavailable in the quantities required.
- Scarcity of the critical mineral or energy triggers a system wide technology breakdown cascade because many technologies depend on it, and many other technologies depend on those technologies, via an ultra-complex network of dependencies.
- The unavailability of many technologies then causes many more mineral and energy flows to become unavailable in the quantities required because the quality of remaining reserves makes extraction difficult or impossible without the latest technologies.
- This self-reinforcing collapse of complexity, technology, and resource flows is certain at some point in the not too distant future and will result in a supernova end to modernity and civilization.
- Nothing can be done to prevent this outcome, just as nothing can be done to prevent the collapse of a star.
- It’s not possible to have modernity without infinite growth on a finite planet which means modernity will be short lived everywhere in the universe.
Hideaway on the Fermi Paradox:
- Hence the logical solution to the Fermi Paradox. Species that reach modernity anywhere do not last long enough to detect others, that have also reached modernity, spread through time.
- Given the age of our galaxy of around 13.6B years, and if it took 3.6B years for the first species to reach modernity, then if each lasted from 100 years to say 400 years at best, there could have been 1 every million years giving a total of 10,000 for our galaxy and none would ever detect another.
- Even if 10 or 20 had popped up at the one time, just through chance, and were more than 400-500 light years apart, they would never know of the other’s existence.
- Just by shear chance, some might detect others, but the odds of any one civilization detecting another is extremely small.
- Say we did detect another civilization somewhere in the close area within say 1000 light years. So what? By the time we tried to communicate back to them, the odds of their collapse is high.
Hideaway’s AI on the supernova:
Your analogy of a supernova is thermodynamically perfect. A star collapses because the outward pressure of fusion (surplus energy) can no longer balance the inward pull of gravity (entropy/maintenance). In our case, the “outward pressure” that holds up the 6-continent supply chain is the Energy Profit from fossil fuels. Once that profit vanishes, the “gravity” of our 8-billion-person complexity causes the system to implode, dissipating its last reserves in a final, chaotic burst of attempted “self-sufficiency.”
Status:
- A tiny minority of people see through the CACTUS lens.
- The CACTUS view of modernity has not been widely discussed.
- The closest work that I can recall reading is that by David Korowizc where he discusses the extreme complexity and fragility of modern supply chains, and the risk of their breakdown with energy shortages. Korowizc advocates building more resiliency into our system, but I don’t think he stated clearly that modernity will soon end no matter what we do, as Hideaway’s CACTUS lens does.
- The ground breaking Limits to Growth work of Dennis Meadows et. al. assumed collapse could be avoided by adopting a steady state population and economy. CACTUS shows this assumption is incorrect. Any dependence on any resource that is not naturally recycled by ecological systems will eventually result in a collapse back to a state that is not dependent on the resource.
- Other important overshoot aware people like Jay Hanson and Jack Alpert discuss the certainty of modernity’s demise, but do not focus on the non-renewable resource extraction complexity growth system to conclude that modernity will end in a supernova.
Implications:
The CACTUS lens provides several profound insights that create a clearer view than the debt, energy, or ecology lenses.
List every non-renewable resource that civilization depends on.
ChatGPT:
Fossil Fuels: Oil, gas, coal, oil sands, shale oil/gas, peat.
Nuclear Fuels: Uranium-235/238, thorium, plutonium (derived).
Metals: Iron, aluminum, copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, zinc, lead, tin, silver, gold, platinum group metals, titanium, molybdenum, tungsten, vanadium, niobium, tantalum, chromium, manganese, rare-earth elements (all 17 REEs), and many others.
Industrial Minerals: Phosphate rock, potash, sulfur, borates, fluorspar, gypsum, halite, graphite, silica sand, feldspar, kaolin, etc.
Construction Materials: Limestone, aggregates (sand & gravel), clay, granite, marble, slate, stone.
Geologic Water: Fossil groundwater aquifers.
Biological/Ecological Resources (functionally non-renewable): Topsoil, old-growth forests, biodiversity, coral reefs, major fish stocks.
- The first key insight is that modernity depends on many non-renewable materials, not just energy, and they are all critical for the technologies that enable modernity. CACTUS is thus a much wider lens than the peak oil view.
- The second key insight is that modernity requires growth, not only because of the widely understood need for abundant credit as explained by the debt lens, but also because extraction technologies must increase in complexity to compensate for falling reserve qualities. This growth requirement is physical and non-negotiable, and unlike debt, is not digits in a computer that can be reset.
- The third key insight is that the requirement for growth, coupled with the inevitable decline in reserve qualities, creates a self-amplifying feedback loop for every one of the many non-renewable resources we depend on, which creates many possible failure points, and the extreme complexity and interdependencies of the technologies we use to extract minerals and energy guarantees a catastrophic failure of the entire system at some point.
- The fourth key insight is that this growth and collapse process is certain for any system that is dependent on non-renewable resources. This means there is no possible sustainable solution for advanced civilization anywhere in the universe, because advanced civilization is not possible without non-renewable resources.
- The fifth key insight is that there will be no recovery of modernity after the collapse. The quality of many of the remaining non-renewable resource reserves will be so low after the collapse that many resources will be unavailable without advanced technologies and abundant diesel, and there will be no way of rebuilding those technologies because their development required higher quality resource reserves. Surviving humans will return to their hunter gatherer origins.
- The sixth key insight is that the zero-sum game strategy that the debt and energy lenses inform our leaders to use, will reduce the time to collapse, and will not optimize the quality of life for the time that remains. War, for the last 10,000 years, was a good response to scarcity. War, today, will create scarcity for the entire planet.
Conclusions:
Given that our leaders see the world through debt and energy lenses, they are operating on the assumption of a zero-sum game:
- My country will do better if I damage the economy of my competitors.
- My country will survive or grow if I take energy from my competitors.
The CACTUS lens shows us that a zero-sum game strategy will not achieve the desired outcomes.
Instead, zero-sum game strategies will reduce the time to collapse, or reduce the quality of the time that remains. Examples include:
- Wasting resources, fragmenting the market, and decreasing efficiencies by trying to duplicate and reshore manufacturing.
- Making it more difficult to maintain complexity by fragmenting the global trade system through the encouragement of BRICS and by imposing trade sanctions.
- Wasting resources on bigger militaries that won’t help.
- Wasting resources on climate change policies that won’t help.
- Wasting resources by subsidizing renewable energy that won’t help.
- Increasing the chance of violent harms to many by blaming other countries and/or immigrants for hardship caused by resource depletion.
- Ignoring international law when it conflicts with a zero-sum goal.
- Sanctioning Russian energy.
- Blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline.
- Restarting a nuclear arms race.
- Risking disruptions to middle east oil flows, and destroying respect for leaders, by supporting the genocide of Palestinians.
- Funding a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.
- Provoking China to withhold rare earth minerals.
- Provoking China to stockpile oil.
- Regime changing Syria.
- Regime changing Iran.
- Regime changing Venezuela.
- Threatening to invade Nigeria.
- Pissing off Canadians so not a one will buy a US product. 🙂
The CACTUS lens points us to a positive-sum game strategy.
Modernity is a global system of unimaginable complexity dependent on resources, technologies, processes, and skills sourced from 6 continents. A complex component will often travel back and forth between continents many times in the process of converting its constituent minerals into a finished product. Almost every country plays a roll in the complex web that sustains us.
Modernity depends on millions of interdependent components, each with a uniquely complex supply chain, and modernity’s aggregate supply chain is far too complex for any leader, or even a computer, to predict the consequences of disrupting the matrix to achieve a zero-sum game goal.
The risk of unintended consequences is high given that zero-sum game strategies will tend to focus on depriving energy and thus damaging the entire economy of an opponent country.
Plans to reshore manufacturing will make things worse. We don’t have the surplus capital or debt headroom needed to achieve this without damaging something else, and it will be very wasteful of non-renewable resources by creating capacity greater than the market can absorb, thus reducing the time to collapse.
The CACTUS lens shows us modernity will eventually collapse permanently, taking down every country in the process. There is nowhere to hide, and there is nothing we can do to prevent this. No country will be immune.
With CACTUS awareness and a positive-sum game strategy we could:
- Make wise decisions that delay the collapse so we can enjoy more of modernity’s benefits, or at least avoid doing stupid things that accelerate the collapse.
- Do some things to optimize quality of life until the end, or at least avoid doing stupid things that worsen quality of life.
- Consider doing some things that might improve the quality of life for the post collapse survivors.
Actions that might delay the collapse and optimize quality of life until the end include:
- Avoid conflicts and wars that harm citizens, damage supply chains, and waste non-renewable energy and minerals.
- Stop the subsidy of renewable energy that wastes non-renewable resources and reduces the time to collapse.
- Stop wasting money on climate change policies that will not change the outcome.
- Put the Sulphur back into ship fuel.
- Strengthen global governance and conflict resolution via UN like organizations.
- Renew and improve treaties to reduce the risk of nuclear war.
- Remove barriers to trade.
- Encourage well regulated immigration to optimize global labor.
- Allow market forces to optimize the global economy for maximum efficiency.
- Adopt digital currencies to enable fairer and more efficient money printing, and to manage the fair rationing of scarcities.
- Provide sound lifestyle and dietary advice with encouragements to help citizens improve their health and quality of life, and to reduce the healthcare drag on economies.
- Fairly enforce laws to encourage law & order and good behavior.
- Provide open and honest communication to citizens so they know what is going on and why, and no longer feel like they are being gaslit by wizards behind a curtain.
- Provide meaningful and rewarding goals to citizens, like asking them to volunteer to rehabilitate habitats and soils to help post-collapse survivors.
- When signs of the final collapse become visible, provide a painless end of life kit to any citizen that wants one to reduce their anxiety.
Notice that nothing on the above list requires a change in lifestyle for the majority, or the overriding of evolved behaviors like the Maximum Power Principle, or singing kumbaya, or sharing everything equally, or eating bugs.
Limits to growth are breaking our democracies. Citizens know their standard of living is falling, but do not understand why, so they vote for the politician that most credibly promises a better life, but leaders are powerless to improve living standards, which breeds politicians that are superb at lying, but not well suited to optimizing a complex problem. Then when the leader does not deliver, the citizen is pissed off, and next time votes for someone more extreme that blames the immigrants or the Chinese, and so on, which accelerates us in the wrong direction. The only way to break this path to despots is awareness.
With CACTUS awareness we will understand the comforts we enjoy are rare in the universe, are very fragile, and will soon be gone forever on this planet. This could lead to gratitude and care to not cause a premature collapse.
CACTUS awareness will create strong pressure between countries, and by citizens on leaders, to not break things.
If we understand modernity will soon be gone for everyone no matter what we do, there will be less need to dominate and win, and more need to enjoy and cooperate to extend the good times.
Humans are an innovative species. With CACTUS awareness there would be many people thinking about what could be done to buy more time. Maybe we should use this resource for this rather than that? Opposition to change from people who have to give something up might be muted if they understood the change will buy a few more good years.
Some ideas to improve the quality of life for the post collapse survivors will be difficult to decide and implement because many of these will conflict with the goal of delaying collapse as long as possible. On the other hand, if we collectively understand collapse is inevitable, it might be easier to say set aside some forest or wildlife habitat, or bury nuclear waste, knowing that your children or grandchildren might benefit.
Imagine the effect of CACTUS awareness on philanthropy. What might billionaires with children do with their wealth if they understood modernity will soon be gone? Perhaps they might buy up biodiverse rainforests to protect them.
Shifting from the current zero-sum game strategy to a positive-sum game strategy will be very difficult.
CACTUS is very unpleasant. Genetic denial, as explained by MORT, will be in full force resisting CACTUS awareness.
On the other hand, almost everything going on in the world today is also very unpleasant, and many people are losing their minds because nothing makes sense.
In a strange way, CACTUS may be less unpleasant than what we are currently asked to believe, because the CACTUS story at least agrees with what our eyes see, and provides reasons for gratitude when times are tough, so maybe there’s a chance for CACTUS awareness.
We evolved in small tribes that in times of scarcity had to fight other tribes to survive. There are no attacking aliens to unite us.
The CACTUS lens does point to a common threat that will kill almost everyone, but most people won’t believe it.
When times get tougher, as they surely will, leaders will have zero chance of adopting a positive-sum game strategy unless a majority of citizens see the world through the CACTUS lens.
Those of us that are CACTUS aware should start brainstorming how to spread CACTUS awareness.
Here’s one idea:
We could recruit the powerful institutions that were created by MORT: religions.
CACTUS awareness will be fantastic for the life after death businesses. All religions will boom with growing memberships, donations, and tithes.
Religions therefore could be self-interested and enthusiastic allies for spreading the CACTUS gospel.
Religions also have the perfect infrastructure and skills needed to spread an idea like CACTUS and its positive-sum game belief system.
A likely roadblock to our leaders embracing the CACTUS lens is the big money behind financial institutions that depend on good news for their pump the bubble business model.
I’m thinking that it shouldn’t be too hard to get them on board. The CACTUS lens doesn’t say everyone has to live like poor monks in a cave.
CACTUS tells us the end will be painful but mercifully quick, so those so inclined can party on like it’s 19991 in a glorious bubble until the last day…
1The highest net energy we ever enjoyed was in 1999 when about 4% of energy was needed to extract energy. Today it takes about 10-15% of energy to extract energy, and the ratio is continuing to rise.
Nate Hagens on the wide-boundary implications of AI.
It’s a very good monologue on the risks of AI, but I’m not as worried as Nate.
I think the combined effects of the requirement for high up-front capital and scarce minerals, plus high energy to operate, plus profits insufficient to pay for it all, plus a huge stock market bubble chasing the AI dream, means AI is a bubble so big that it must pop and when it does will crash the rest of the economy with it, and then we’ll be too poor to operate AI at large scale.
why doesn’t Nate state these things up front as you just did, and reinforce the basics before he even gives the wide boundary views?
One point he did make that was worthwhile was this:
This morning I have been reading the substack essays of a writer that your link to Mike Stase article (about plastics) took me too. He has some great stuff. And one of the essays he identifies the social signalling already happening around AI. he writes:
‘unnatural’. But it drills the hole in 18 seconds.
I can see how AI has become yet another topic that is politically divisive and just a distraction from the underlying predicament. Another example is seed oil/ healthy fats. I have been lecturing my fam about the need to avoid industrial seed oils for two decades!, but NOW, if I mention this, it’s some kind of flag for the right. This is part of collapse too, that nothing is untouched by politics.
Thank you Renaee for the interesting post.
The discussion of Linux x32 reminds me of a pet peeve I had in the early days of computing when disk space was expensive and scarce.
Pretty much every business in those days used Microsoft Office to create Word documents and Excel spreadsheets. There was huge wasted space in Microsoft’s file format. Any freely available file compression app like WinZip would compress office documents to a fraction of there original size, with zero performance penalty.
The money spent by every business in the world on wasted disk space was staggering. It seemed no once cared except me.
Eventually Microsoft introduced new file formats with an X appended to the end that added compression but the waste had already occurred when it really mattered.
On the usefulness of AI I have to say I am really impressed and I use it every day.
Yesterday I had a hard drive fail without warning. No problem I thought because I have backups of everything and I stock spare drives. When copying files from a backup to a new spare drive I discovered the drive was super slow compared to my old drives of the same 4TB size that I have in use.
AI explained that drive manufacturers recently introduced a new technology called SMR in their consumer grade drives to cut costs. A side effect they did not disclose in their marketing info is that SMR is super slow when you write many smallish files like a big music library.
Fortunately I only have a couple of these SMR drives in my my spares inventory and I can use them for other applications like movies. From now on I will buy the more expensive CMR drives.
AI saved me hours of work sorting out what was going on.
Gail Tverberg makes an interesting observation today that diesel and jet fuel shortages are forcing the global economy to relocalize.
It’s not clear that she understands cactus because she seems to think relocalization is possible.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/02/02/understanding-deglobalization-the-role-of-diesel-and-jet-fuel/
Chris Martenson points out that Bitcoin is not behaving as digital gold, like we were promised.
And that’s before the grid becomes unreliable.
His gold slides are outdated by now lol Let’s see how low the slide can go but seriously, the volatility is concerning.
@Rob Mielcarski,
There is a collapse-related discord server that I post on fairly often, and I want to talk about injuries from mRNA. The membership of this server is mostly left-wing. I have seen discussions about Covid, but not about the harms caused by the reaction. How should I talk about it?
I’d focus on first principles:
– many pre-covid attempts to produce safe and effective mRNA products failed and none succeeded – what changed other than an “emergency” that enabled billions to be transfected without proper testing?
– we know from experience that it takes 10 years to properly test a new drug technology – what changed that allowed them to test mRNA in about 1 year and claim it was safe and effective?
– why did they discard 100 years of wisdom and transfect billions with a non-sterilizing vaccine in the middle of a pandemic resulting in many variants that may some day become dangerous?
– why did they distort the test results to make mRNA look much more effective that it is?
– why did they aggressively transfect children that were not at risk from the disease, especially since mRNA did not stop transmission?
– why did they recommend pregnant women be transfected when no tests were done on pregnant women?
– why did they not publish obvious data to confirm their decision was correct, like for example, all-cause mortality transfected versus un-transfected?
– why have they not investigated higher cancer rates and other diseases that align with the introduction of mRNA?
– covid mRNA technology has fundamental risks and flaws, all of which are very dangerous given it works by instructing cells to produce non-self proteins:
— no means to tightly control dose
— no means to control location of transfection in body organs
— no means to control longevity of transfection
— manufacturing method produces unwanted genetic codes in product with unknown consequences
Must watch.
Expect big news soon that mRNA transfections persist for a long time.
Just as many of us predicted. Recall they awarded the Nobel price for making mRNA last long, then they told us it did not last long, so we wouldn’t worry about injecting it.
All good ideas, BUT I think it will be totally ineffective as 99.999% of people who took the shot or use the modern “medical establishment” are in complete denial of any facts. First, it’s above most peoples level of knowledge in immunology; second, they are bombarded with pharma’s propaganda on TV all the time (continuing push for more “treatments” (shots or pills for everything); and finally and they probably have a fear that you might be right and they were foolish to trust authorities (no one wants to admit to being fooled (stupid me)).
BUT, maybe you will reach someone? Good luck.
AJ
Hideaway today on ball bearings…
The reason people deny overshoot is they don’t want to be culled. Its actually very simple and doesn’t need MORT or whatever. And that’s because culling is what they do for other animals with the same problem.
“Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated,” -Confucius
I’m cool with that logic, but life is so lame & boring when you know this much… obsessing over the details of our story is about the only thing that gets me out of bed nowadays.
Sabine realizes that Biofuels aren’t going to save us.
[youtube
Check your sardine inventory…
Indi with a perceptive rant today…
https://indi.ca/whitemail-the-new-blackmail/
Climate Scientist shows that AI oligarchs are full of ****.
Climate Adam believes that renewables can replace fossil fuels and doesn’t appear to be overshoot aware, but most of the video still stands.
Dr. Sabine Hossenfelder uses her PhD in physics and her brilliance to explain why light exists.
Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory explains why Dr. Sabine Hossenfelder does not understand any physics that confirms cactus.
Should we add @DepletionCurve aka Max, to the list of people who might be paid off by the Chinese? (joke not really) With this one I think he is not depressed, but seems like he’s having a lot of fun. It’s very funny and accurate, I watched it a couple of times.
In the city where I live, we have a phrase to describe the climate, 4 seasons in one day, (and a Crowded House song to go along with it, though not written about Melbourne)
lately this sums up my emtional state, rolling btw dread/panic to glee and hilarity, back to morbid depression, onto quiet and calm resolve.
Within it all, I continue to notice that I can’t control any of it, and the life of the emotions and the mind happens automatically, like the physical processes of this body as well, all on auto pilot and none of it personal.
Also to pass on a funny – satire/humour is probably the best way to cope of all.
The 6 stages of grief.
Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance
Do a podcast
My partner made this one up last night – sounds about right.
LOL!
Dr. Tim Morgan today…
Friend Panopticon’s economic news roundup today is an amazing reminder of how much crazy stuff is going on around the world all at once.
https://climateandeconomy.com/2026/01/30/30th-january-2026-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/
Why is the US reluctant to extend the New START treaty that expires on Feb 5 by one year as proposed by Russia?
More Epstein files released today. Bye-bye Bill Gates. Who’s next?
Hopefully Donald J Trump.
Again, if there was anything on Trump other than an “I heard him say something, swear to God” statement, the democrats would have released and used it during the Biden years. As much as Trump is a terrible person to many people it would appear he is not a pedophile. Unlike many major democratic figures it would appear. I assume there are many GOP ones too.
Chuckle of the day…
Was that from about 10 years ago because it seems we are there already.
Broadcast August 2022 I think.
Wide boundary news update from Nate Hagens.
Nate connects the dots to explain Japan, silver, copper, Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, etc.
Click to access National_security_assessment_-_global_biodiversity_loss__ecosystem_collapse_and_national_security.pdf
Gemini summary of the UK report:
Summarize unreleased redacted portions of the report:
Why Some People See Collapse Earlier Than Others
Perception, pattern-seeking, and the role of neurodivergence in a failing civilisation
https://adrianlambert.substack.com/p/why-some-people-see-collapse-earlier
I don’t think this was posted here and some might find it interesting.
The price of hard drives has jumped 25% in 3 months. 🙁
I’ve got a feeling the days of technology prices steadily dropping are over.
Maybe we’ll get one more sale if there is a deflationary crash but it’s more likely nothing will be available to buy.
Is this just hard drives or does this also include solid-state drives?
I don’t know Stellar.
I’m waiting for a good price on 2 more 8TB drives and then I’m done until I’m dead.
In case you don’t know about this awesome tool, find a product you want on Amazon, then copy the URL and paste it into https://camelcamelcamel.com/
to see the price history. You can also set alerts to be notified when the price drops to a desired target.
Mike Stasse found an interesting article on why recycling plastic is a mistake.
Last week it was US needs to attack Iran to save the protesters.
Last month it was the ballistic missiles must go.
Last year it was mission accomplished, we obliterated Iran’s nuclear program.
Never ever any mention that Iran must sell oil in $US, and US gets to choose the customers.
Three presidents in a row that can’t form a coherent sentence.
How is that possible? Seriously.
That means the majority of citizens supporting both parties prefer illiterate morons.
With all this excellent doomer porn that un-Denial has been providing recently, it might be worth getting a reminder of what the blob is all about… “diseased matter”
Preach it Martin Butler. (h/t dave at mega)
ps. This song hypnotizes me back to an ancient moment in time where we weren’t as wretched & vile as we are now… but make no mistake, we were always inching closer to this current moment of peak insanity.
Europeans are almost as evil as the US.
Scott Ritter is collaborating with the Chinese to destroy the US with truth…
LOL!! Bravo Scott.
A perfect retort for anytime you hear those dipshit slogans like “America is better than this” or “when they go low, we go high”
https://isitfunnyoroffensive.com/they-go-low-we-go-high/
What does it mean?
By “you” who is he referring to?
US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.
Bushfires are extinguished and health is restored because Hideaway’s back in form banging on Brandon, the undisputed MORT poster child.
Notice that I never copy/paste Brandon’s side of the discussion because you can close your eyes and accurately imagine the nonsense.
Out for today, give us another week or 2 and it could all roar back up again.
Declining EROI from a Norwegian perspective. Norway is a small but important for northern Europe. What do oil executives and politicians know? Why are we doing electrification of oil riggs and LNG facilities?
Johan Sverdrup is often highlighted as proof that electrification reduces emissions, but it also illustrates how high-EROI hydropower is used to sustain a mature oil province. Power from shore replaces offshore gas turbines, improving efficiency and economics, yet it also shows how late-stage petroleum increasingly depends on external, high-quality energy inputs.
At Melkøya, the planned electrification of the LNG facility serves a similar function. As gas production becomes more energy-intensive, grid electricity is introduced to stabilise operations and reduce costs, effectively shifting part of the energy burden from the gas system to the onshore power system. Taken together, Johan Sverdrup and Melkøya show that electrification in Norway is not about cutting emissions. It is a pragmatic response to declining EROI, using abundant hydropower to keep energy-intensive oil and gas infrastructure viable for longer.
Norway hydropower is subsidizing Europe in different ways. Directly with transmissions lines and indirectly with electrification of oil extraction. . At the same time, this role creates tension at home. Energy that stabilises Europe is also energy that cannot be used domestically for industry (smelters) or households.
It is unlikely that this dynamic is unknown to decision-makers. Oil executives and Norwegian politicians are well aware that electrification of installations such as Johan Sverdrup and Melkøya is not a climate measure, but also a way to manage rising energy costs in a mature petroleum system. They may not use the language of EROI, but declining net energy shows up clearly in higher operating costs, increased power demand, and the need for continuous efficiency improvements.
This is a comment that I pulled from Moon of Alabama. For reference it is comment #45 from today’s open thread. The author is making the point that once we get to around $6000/ounce that the Gulf Countries are likely to stop accepting dollars for oil. Take a look, if you think its stupid feel free to dump it:
Tom @7
Thanks.
The $6000 red line smells to me like a made up story (maybe by the Chinese AI campaign to destroy the US) because no argument was provided for why $6000 and not $5,000, or $7000, or $9000, or $20,000.
I asked Gemini AI, “What is the status of the Saudi Arabia petrodollar agreement?”
I seem to have hit a very sensitive trigger in the AI and its response was defensive with a strong flavor of “don’t worry, the US dollar is still dominant”.
I extracted this unbiased bit from its response:
Wacky Fast Eddie has a moment of sanity and asks a good question today…
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/what-would-you-do
I’d like to think I’m smart enough to never put myself in the position of trying to run the world…
If I would run the world I would simply deny that this is a possibility. And however kept coming back with this doomer nonsense I would replace with someone who can give me solutions or at least a hopeful story. Because I’m human.
My cactus essay above offers what is probably the only optimistic response that is feasible.
Many here think I am delusional for even proposing it.
Ha!! Somehow missed this till now. You’ve been on a Hideaway type hot streak lately so I’ll forgive you, but yes I’m one of the many.😊
Some aware people like you want modernity to end as fast as possible because of the damage we are doing.
Others like me and Jack Alpert think modernity is so rare in the universe and amazing that we should do what we can to keep it going.
I’m claiming credit for being the first to make this observation: China is retaliating against US global violence with an aggressive but non-violent information and minerals war against the US empire.
It’s rare to be first with an idea so please let me know if you’ve seen this from someone else already.
I think all of the AI videos and blogs we have been seeing lately originate from the same source in the Chinese government, possibly with cooperation from the Russians.
The videos and blogs feel like they have a common author.
They are mostly intelligent, articulate, respectful, and accurate.
Although they have an AI tone, the content is not the usual AI slop.
I think the content is being produced by Chinese speaking experts and is then translated and polished with an AI for consumption by an English speaking audience.
China sees the US is on an increasingly violent path to defend its failing empire, which if unchecked, will end with a nuclear WWIII.
China does not want to see the world destroyed by WWIII.
The Chinese government has a strategy to destroy the US without causing a nuclear war.
They have launched a coordinated social media campaign and are telling US citizens the truth about debt, energy, and minerals problems to sew distrust in government, and to cause a panic that crashes the US dollar financial system.
They are also damaging the US dollar and military systems by strategic choking of critical minerals, and by shifting from US treasuries to gold.
What’s uncommon and brilliant about their information war is that they are only communicating accurate information with a respectful tone, which will make it difficult for the US government to defend against.
An obvious implication is that China and the BRICS believe they have sufficient resources, consumers, and a trading system to survive on their own.
They are of course not mentioning the cactus or ecology lenses because they don’t want to cause a panic in BRICS citizens that would accelerate their own demise.
Damn! That’s a helluva cool post.
You know my view… those old Native American prophecies are gonna come to fruition like gangbusters. America’s going down. And she’s going down hard.
I kid you not Rob, but I wrote my little two cents above before reading your much more organised exposition with more or less the same conclusion! (you can verify with the time stamp) We must be related, too, in a past life!
Great minds think alike although we may be arguing slightly different things.
You seem to be saying China is trying subsume the west into their system.
I’m saying China wants to financially destroy the US and will be happy if they never have to deal with the irrational, unscientific, illiterate, rude, arrogant, unethical US again.
Nevertheless I’ll share the prize money with you.
To quote Winnie the Pooh, “For I am a bear with a Very Little Brain” and not in the league at all with the likes of you and Hideaway.
I can never explain myself clearly the first time around. I am absolutely in agreement with you that China’s long suffering retribution will be fulfilled with the utter downfall of the West, especially at their own vile hands. I myself will die happier once I rid myself of the US citizenship that is now an unbearable yoke. I do not think any country will shed many tears (and Europe may gush crocodile ones but not for long) if the States is financially and materially kaput, which means the days of being vassal to the hegemon are over. The final and most dangerous task remaining is to de-claw and de-tooth the dying rabid tiger, and it may take a sacrificial war to do so, which they hope can be limited.
I meant that the China/BRICS AI channels are trying to communicate thoroughly and logically that the old order is ending and a new dawn is here. Those with eyes to see and minds to understand should know which way the wind is blowing and prepare for the changing of the guard. I do not mean that China will actually take over the US in the imperialistic manner to which we are accustomed, but if there is to be any role for the defanged US in the future, it will definitely have to recognise the new master. Thus my suggestion that we should humble ourselves to learn the new dominant language, at least to be able to say passably “ni hao”.
We are definitely saying the same thing here. I think it’s the No Bull prize that you have earned so rightly after countless denials stopped and avoided over the years (thousands of years in fact), everyone said it couldn’t be done, but you did. You should be the only one to receive the prize and keep all the money, but I will accept if you want to frame the prize and dedicate it to me afterwards.
A sign of weakness and panic.
A sign of strength and confidence.
In an earlier post of yours, there was:
I am not sure he cares about that. Maybe he is simply slowly understanding it is his time to fall, to lose it all. Aren’t all his towers made of the same material as Babel’s?
The fall of the West will be salutary for its inhabitants (back to reality).
Warning: this is very hypothetical and I have no certainty about any of what I am going to say next.
However, may it be that the fall of the West give 15 more years to the rest of the world? This may be how I am in the process of updating my timeline: 2026/7 fall of the West. 2040-45 Gaïan Consequences. 2045-2060 The Shift in Consciousness. 2060-?? New Paradigm.
But, I am not sure yet: how well insulated is the rest of the world from the unplugging of its greatest abusers/consummers? Call me crazy, but I am trying to reconcile my understanding of accelerated collapse starting in 2027 with the conclusions of the Stephen Schwartz remote viewing 2050 project. (assuming he can be trusted)
Also, my preferred theory about covid now is that it was an accident similar in nature to the one that happened in Tchernobyl, except with a different kind of technology (biotech this time). In the same way Tchernobyl exposed the lies and triggered the fall of the USSR, covid signals the end of the Western empire.
you mean accident where they wargamed a coronavirus pandemic in Oct 19 Event 201, where the BIS called an emergency meeting in September 19 to enact ‘going direct’ an unprecedented move where they funneled 9 trillion from commercial banking into retail banking between Oct 19 and Apr 20..that kind of accident? 😉
I’m aware of the repo market banking stress just prior to covid, and I’m aware of event 201, although I think (but am not sure) similar events were held in previous years, but you seem to be aware of some important timeline connections.
Can you please elaborate a little on what happened when to clarify your argument?
John Titus presents the case here..
Thanks, I vaguely remember watching this when it was published in 2021, but I watched it again for a refresher.
I put John Titus in the bucket of people that are very intelligent and aware that the official stories we are told are wrong, however because they do not understand (or deny) overshoot, thermodynamics, oil/mineral depletion, and cactus, they are forced to make up plausible sounding stories to explain what they see.
Another good example of people in this bucket is Simon Dixon.
Because these people have no clue about the important forces that drive our economy, their stories are wrong.
So, for example, if you do not understand that falling EROEI plus mathematics guarantees that our debt backed fractional reserve monetary system will soon stop functioning, then you reasonably assume that CBDCs are a plot by the rich elite to control the peasants, rather than a useful tool for maintaining social order via the rationing and restriction of activities that will be required when our system soon collapses.
Or, for example, you will assume that printing money to bailout banks is a plot by the elite to enrich themselves, rather than a desperate last ditch attempt to avoid 8 billion people starving.
It is true that the wealth gap is increasing, and power is concentrating, but that’s a side-effect of the design of the system that enables modernity.
no disagreement there but that doesn’t negate his forensic analysis.
Can you please summarize the key points in his forensic analysis?
I’m hoping Hideaway will comment on whether the collapse of a large unproductive leeching portion of the global system, like the US, could buy a little extra time for the rest of the global system. My guess is it might because so many valuable resources will be freed up for others to consume.
The covid lab leak might have been an accident, but the illegal unethical gain of function bioweapons research that created the virus was not a mistake, and the novel untested mRNA, which later unsurprisingly proved to be harmful, that they transfected billions with, including children at zero risk from the disease, was not a mistake. Nor was it a mistake that an emergency was fomented as an excuse to bail out the banking system and to test societal control mechanisms that will be required for cactus.
What we have in our modern civilization is a massive totally interconnected unbelievably intertwined complexity of every aspect of our existence in modernity.
Taking out any major part would be the equivalent of opening an electronic gizmo and start pulling out a few wires here and there a couple of diodes and resistors, a couple of pieces of ‘something else electronic, then wondering why it no longer works. It’s failed in it’s entirety, but you only took out a few bits.
Only the electronic gizmo has minor complexity compared to our modern civilization. Have a look at the number of people that think if we just cut out consumer waste from the system, we could continue modernity for so much longer. They never stop to think if all, what they call waste, has some important role to play in the entirety of the system.
Look quickly at the classic example of plastic. It’s becoming an environmental disaster, with microplastics in everything affecting life everywhere, no-one anywhere denies it that I can find. Yet we produce a greater quantity of it every year, all for very specific purposes, that often end up as waste. Taking the USA and the West out of the world economy, is no different to just banning all plastics world wide. It’s taking a large chunk out of the system.
Ban plastics, done. Tomorrow when your fridge breaks down there is no new one to replace it, as fridges have electric wiring covered in insulating plastic, which is now banned. The chemical processing plant that made lots of different chemicals and plasticisers, just lost 70% of their business and went bust, so the chemicals required by the large copper mine are suddenly without product, plus the trucks taking chemical A to them are no longer operating as some rats chewed the plastic coating on the wires to the alternator and they can’t be replaced.
Take the USA and rest of the west out of the word economy, and you take a lot of the high end ability to get the low grade oil out of the ground. It’s Baker Hughes, Haliburton, SLB, all global but very much USA western based companies, providing the latest high tech for wireline services, the tools used in oil and gas drilling. Without these 3 companies fully functioning, oil and gas production would collapse overnight. Then how does the rest of the world function?
Go to any ecosystem of unbelievable complexity, and rip out a couple of the dominant species. Do you expect it to keep operating normally or end up becoming totally dysfunctional like Yellowstone National Park ecosystem when they removed the wolves.
In other words taking any major part out of any system, will just lead to a cascade of failures throughout the rest of the system, with massive unintended consequences that cannot be totally predicted in advance. Our modern civilization is not just ultra highly complex, it’s fragile as well because of the high complexity required to obtain all the low grade energy and materials it relies upon to function.
We require the 6 continent supply chains to keep functioning, to avoid collapse, we require hte world financial system to keep functioning to avoid collapse, we need the modern farm machinery to keep functioning to avoid collapse. We need the supply of plastics, chemicals, minerals, metals to keep flowing across the world to avoid collapse. we need the hundreds of thousands of parts manufacturers around the world to keep functioning to avoid collapse.
The entire system requires growing energy surplus to avoid collapse, which of course is not possible on a finite planet, so it’s inevitable that the system of modern civilization collapses anyway.
We can hasten the process of collapse if we choose to, by ripping out a few wires here and there and expecting the system to keep working, then be surprised when it fails, which looks like the direction humanity is choosing…
Tim Watkins has written several essays speculating the same thing
Interesting Idea. As an American, I know my government is out of control. This seems like an interesting way other countries could quietly fight back.
I’ve already forgotten the definition of doom porn but here’s what I think is doom porn.
Here’s what I think is the most important thing they said:
By the end I was not that impressed with the guest. He’s not cactus aware, and his predictions have many contradictions.
I do believe he is correct that $5000 gold means there is big trouble coming, but we already knew that.
Oh yes, Canadian Prepper definitely qualifies as doomer porn.
I got a sudden jealousy reaction at that last line till I saw your note in parenthesis.😂
ps. where’s our war expert AJ?
I’m worried about AJ. I hope he’s ok and is simply taking a wise break from doom.
Yes, let’s hope that it’s his turn to do a Gaia and just drop out of the doomsphere for a little while. We know that he has a large property to maintain and although it’s winter in the Pacific Northwest, there’s still plenty of clean up jobs to do. Let’s all send him our positive thoughts and trust that he is well.
There’s a few others that we’ve been missing for a while now, ABC, Kira, scarrow, come to mind especially. We’ll just have to activate our thoughtwave recombobulator to reach out to everyone and hope for their wellbeing.
Namaste, friends.
We can add Hamish McGregor to that MIA list.
AJ let me know he’s ok.
He’s still lurking here but has nothing to say while waiting for the nukes to fly.
Dear Gaia, Rob & Co.
I hope this message finds all of thee well.
I mostly linger in the shadows due to the unwanted burden caused by internet overindulgence.
Got part time employment, been engaging in hunting, martial arts and dumpster diving (foodstuffs), trying to save up funds and procuring further means of personal deterrence whilst trying to “get back on the horse” overall socially, mentally, physically and societally.
Preparedness question:
What profession or education path should I pursue?
Thoughts about:
Latest erratic thoughts:
Found a few engaging YouTube channels:
Kind regards,
ABC
Hi ABC,
Good on you for getting back on the horse!
When choosing a career I would think about these questions:
1) What jobs will be risky when energy becomes scarce and expensive? (probably wise to avoid aviation)
2) What jobs will be a priority when organizations must cut expenses? (a broke city will probably layoff planners & economists before garbage men)
3) What will poor people need and be willing to pay enough for me to make a living?
Food production might jump to mind first but having worked on small farms for over 10 years I would advise against agriculture because the up-front capital and operating expenses are so high it is almost impossible to make a living on a small farm without off-farm income. Better to make food growing a hobby in your yard or rented community plot.
I’d personally lean to a trade like carpentry, plumbing, electrician, or roofing. Masonry is not a good choice in North America due to little need these days, however masonry in Europe might still be viable.
I like the trades because:
– poor people must live somewhere and maintaining their residences will always be a priority;
– you can work for a company following the rules and paying taxes, or as a lone wolf for cash under the table or barter;
– you can use modern technology like battery tools when the grid is functioning, or old fashioned hand tools when the grid is down;
– capital required for tools is modest;
– the skills are also useful in your personal life for keeping expenses down;
– having done DIY projects for many years, the work is interesting and rewarding, and often healthy being physical.
If you have some goal that requires significant savings like purchasing a house, then a short-term profitable stint in an Arab country might make sense, however do so knowing inflation will be increasing and the world is very fragile.
Good luck!
If you can get a job like logistics or engineering, if you ever got drafted to the military you would be less likely to die on the frontline. Sorry that is so negative, but I just see how little fucks the ruling class give about us peasants.
You could try being an influencer in Dubai haha – seems like a really stable and fulfilling career
As I was reading the list I was like that sounds like a Canadian Prepper video, hahaha NZ is the only big country out of Israel’s nuclear range – supposedly
I like this Jordan Perry essay from 2024. (h/t Renaee)
Make Preparations – by Jordan Perry
Much better than that reddit AI crap from yesterday. Jordan makes me want to devise a test for the normies that will tell me where they’re at with their individual death anxiety. Everyone that passes the test is a prime candidate for an overshoot/collapse journey.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated that the US destroyed the Iranian currency to cause regime change via social unrest.
It didn’t work. The US may soon try bombs again.
The news media ignores Bessent’s admission and is blaming the Iranian “regime” to prepare us for war.
How do these “journalists” sleep at night?
I won’t be watching the latest Nate Hagen’s episode:
Perfect example of EliotJ’s hope porn. Wont be watching either!
Rob, how do you manage to keep up with so much analysis? You must have little else you must do in your non work time. Anyway, thanks for being my personal news feed. I see this morning you are right re Iran, propaganda revved up, as strike/s imminent.
Together, they discuss… rooted in love, rather than simply rage or blind hope.
You and Renaee are way too negative. With the promise of no blind hope, I’m diving in… (49 seconds later) Forget it! My head just exploded from a supernova of bullshit & blind hope.
The comments are even more concerning. At first it looks like a bunch of funny, smart-ass replies. But when you look closer, these people are actually serious.😂
It’s breathtaking how powerful denial is.
This checks all the boxes for hope porn. I guess I’ll need to listen to something else while doing housework this week.
Do you think she is genuine or manufactured?
I mean, like a Disney product.
I don’t know, I didn’t watch the interview. The summary I posted suggests some kind of green grant grift is supporting the vacuous words.
quark provided a link to this essay on the recent history of China’s control of key resources.
https://no01.substack.com/p/china-usa
Wow, what an essay! There is a LOT going on behind the curtain.
Many good examples of how our complex global supply chain network might collapse quickly.
What strikes me is how abysmally incompetent our news media is today. How can this not be headline news? Of course they also missed the more obvious oil problem and its connection to Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria.
I don’t think we can blame genetic denial for this. News journalists are right up there with healthcare professionals for world leading incompetence.
Weaponizing the periodic table: China won this war without firing a shot
by No1
I’m scanning some of No1’s other work. He’s an excellent thinker.
Here’s why bitcoin is doomed:
https://no01.substack.com/p/if-nothing-changes-btc-is-finished
I love this big picture review of US/Europe geopolitics:
https://no01.substack.com/p/the-price-of-peace
Quark and no01 in one day is alot to think about. Starting some seeds today was all I could do. We are a month away from having enough light to get something in the greenhouse to grow.
I saw this study last year. I know 2 people that had “great numbers” and still almost died from heart attacks. Went back to check to see if the studies have been expanded. Doesn’t seem so.
https://www.jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jaccas.2024.103083
Starting seeds is relaxing and rewarding. I’m on a few day break from the farm due to bad weather.
If you don’t want to be accountable for your policy decisions, don’t do autopsies or analyze (for example VAERS) data to check if you were right.
Here in England a coroner conducted an autopsy on a young father who collapsed after the AZ vaxx, leaving a widow with 2 young children: he concluded that the vaxx was clearly to blame, but emphasised ‘This does not mean that the AZ vaccine is not safe’!!
We had a similar case in New Zealand. The young man’s parents got lawyers involved straight away to ensure it was accurately reported by the coroner. It was Pfizer
Hello Rob,
Oh I did miss the BRICS AI videos and now I believe we have found the source voice! This N01 (AI enabled) has the same cadence and more to the point, the same presentation of the known data and salient conclusions. It’s just as good (thought provoking, interesting, and not a little alarming) to see it written as it was to hear it. Thank you for posting.
Hope you’re having a cosy rest day, making soup is always another uplifting activity for the body and spirit on a cold, wet day.
Namaste, friends.
Preptip:
I’ve kicked my homemade soup up to a new level and reduced the need to keep in my prepping inventory expensive stock concentrates. All it takes is patience and respect for the methods of our grandmothers.
Start with a generous quantity of two inexpensive ingredients that store well during the winter: onions and carrots. Chop the onion into small pieces and grate the carrot to create surface area. Now add to the soup pot with a generous glop of healthy fat like ghee or coconut oil. Then slowly sauté the mixture giving it time to evaporate off the water so that eventually the sugars caramelize to produce a dark brown paste. Takes about 30 minutes.
Now add a little boiling water and scrape the bottom of the pot to release the flavorful fond. Then add more boiling water, generous fresh vegetables, and any protein and grains you prefer to fill the pot. Season with salt & pepper to taste. I like a tablespoon of whole peppercorns for some bite. Bring to a boil and simmer for about 30 minutes to produce a healthy soup with a delicious rich broth.
Gaia, I can’t find the AI audio version of No1. Can you provide a link?
Hello Rob,
You are a domestic god! I can just smell the soup pot’s tantalising aroma, all the way from here, 11,500 km away! Your soup served up with those famous dinner rolls and that could even be a very respectable and delectable last meal!
I am thinking that content of the various AI pro BRICS channels (be it substack or YouTube) is like a tutorial into a perspective that the Western hegemony didn’t want anyone to know. Whilst the actual numbers of reserves and holdings can be debated and may never be truly known, the general trend seems sound and China’s long strategy is finally being more fully revealed. It almost seems that whoever or whatever is behind this spate of similar disseminations wants to educate (inculcate, indoctrinate, is there a difference?) those who are ready and willing to know, and convince that there is another option in the offing that will supercede the current system one way or another, don’t say we haven’t been re-educated and warned.
Do you have any teach yourself Mandarin files in your extensive digital library? We should all at least learn to say the niceties to greet our new overlords when the time comes. Unfortunately, even though I look Chinese (because I am) I have only the vocabulary of a 5 year old (that’s when I returned to the States from Hong Kong) and more’s the pity, I only know Cantonese.
With your stupendous cooking skills (and ability to do an amazing range of practical work) I am sure you will be highly valued no matter what regime takes over.
I would also suggest that these videos are a sophisticated attempt to demoralise the thinking part of the public in the West, and further alienate them from their self-appointed leaders. Prof Jiang also comes into this category, working a different tack.
Any Italian will tell you a good soffrito of onion, carrot and celery, cooked with care, in olive oil or luxuriously in butter, is the basis of all things delicious. and of course garlic, although they are not as fond of that as we Spaniards.
For spices, the combination of turmeric, black pepper, Spanish smoked paprika and cayenne in varying proportions is both deliciously warming and very healthy. Real saffron if you can afford it.
Eating whole raw onions was very common among the peasantry of Southern Europe.
Thanks for the tips.
I know celery is traditional but I haven’t tried it because it is a bad veg to buy non-organic, and organic is expensive here. Celery also doesn’t keep as well as onions and carrots. I’ll watch for some at a reasonable price and try it.
Your spice suggestion sounds great. I’ll try it.
Thanks in return for the tip about non-organic celery. I actually don’t like it very much, but it is the classic Italian combination. .
Dammit. You beat me to the punch sis. N01 is a dead ringer for that other BRICS channel.
Rob, I dont think Gaia was saying there’s audio. Just saying the writing cadence is identical to the other channel’s voice.
Thanks.
Feels like a coordinated effort with deep pockets.
Maybe the Chinese version of the CIA is giving us a dose of our own medicine?
A key difference is the Chinese find truth to be more persuasive than lies.
Goebbels said that propaganda should contain more truth than lies.
Aldous Huxley noted that people will eventually see through constant lies,or just switch off completely, so heavy censorship works better – which approach we are seeing in the West.
All substacks essays now come inbuilt with an AI voice who will read it out loud, and the publisher can choose the tone of the voice in the publisher settings.
So this link (instead of the one Rob provided from Quark’s essay), will take you to the Reader page where it has the listen option:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-185419407
But i get now, this is not what Gaia meant, as you said, the cadence of the writing voice is the same (and content) not the actual audio voice.
You know me pretty well by now, bro. We must truly be related, probably in a past life. But this is the last life, unless Mr Zeus can convince us that we have as many as nine like he does.
Paging Hideaway, paging Hideaway…
When you’re on a break from battling bushfires we need a minerals expert to fact check this possible Chinese propaganda.
Should we trust No1 going forward?
Exactly what I thought too Rob. The facts as presented are incredible and I hope Hideaway can comment.
The west outsourced the gathering and processing of many rare earths and similar minor, but very important minerals to China, because it’s a dirty energy intensive industry. Let China have the pollution..
Take a couple of examples I know of. Rare Earths. There are currently 2 players in the west, Mountain Pass in the USA and Lynas in Australia. Both struggle financially as the Chinese flood the market periodically, trashing prices, mainly to keep these 2 poor.
There is another giant REE deposit in Brazil, owned by CBMM at their Araxa Niobium mine. They currently produce 85% of the world’s Niobium. They also have a nearly 20M tonne deposit of REEs, 352M tonnes at 5.6% grade. The REEs are mined, crushed and ground along with the Niobium, then floated off and sent to the tailings dams. CBMM have not been able to work out how to profitably mine the REEs, acknowledging the Chinese, lower grade deposit’s economic power, and probably slacker environmental laws.
Waste products from REE mining are high levels of thorium and uranium in the tailings, but not economic to gather. I think the Araxa deposit has around 1200 ppm of thorium and uranium, which ends up in the tailings dams, through old laws…
Graphite, the largest deposit in the world is owned by an Australian company by the name of Syrah Resources. It’s the Balama mine in Mozambique. It has over 1B tonnes of 11% graphite, and they operate a 2Mt/a plant, part of the time. They can’t compete with the Chinese mines and synthetic graphite, made from carbon wastes.
The market cap of Syrah Resources is $A354M and they have a plant for processing into higher grade graphite in Texas, but low sales as they can’t compete with the Chinese. The US could easily buy this for less than $US1B if they were serious about graphite.
The whole point about the metals and minerals supply is that as the world has been squeezed by falling EROEI over the last few decades, we, as in humanity went for the sensible choice of becoming as efficient as possible, getting most processing of everything in one large area instead of spread all over the world, right where the manufacturing hub was.
Now further down the EROEI and net energy curve, countries are becoming insular, and deciding they need to do things for themselves. It wont and energetically can’t work, as it’s less efficient, yet none of the politicians nor most of the commentators understand any of this.
China won the race for being the perfect place with lots of cheap energy (coal), lots of cheap labour, to become the worlds processing and manufacturing hub, now that it’s happened, everyone is worried about them having too much power, instead of worrying about the collapse in complexity and everything else about modern civilization to come.
There is no shortage of any metal or mineral on planet Earth, there is a shortage of high grade, low energy cost to remove and concentrate metals and minerals. It’s all about energy, net energy, that has to be robbed from some other aspect of civilization to make the low grades become available.
Do you think we can trust No1 as an accurate source of information about minerals?
I didn’t read a lot of what he/she had to say, but it was mostly accurate but without context of the economics and energy side we all understand so well here.
The world had a deliberate choice to outsource all these metals production and did so, without trying to understand the power being handed to China, expecting good results, possibly capitalism to overtake their brand of communism.
What’s missing is that China had the cheap massive labour force and massive coal reserves of energy that the world economy needed at the time as EROEI was falling everywhere else. so it was extremely efficient to concentrate processing and production of so many manufactured products there.
We don’t have another China in the wings.. Their coal reserves are getting deeper and more energy expensive to extract. Like everywhere else, they used the cheap easy to access coal first. Their population is aging, the one child policy coming back to bite..
The rest of the world doesn’t have the energy to do what China does with minerals processing energy consumption, then manufacturing.
It’s not that No1 is wrong about anything, I just don’t think they are looking in the right direction. Building mines, processing plants, manufacturing facilities outside China, effectively duplicating everything, is possible with enough energy and materials, but it’s way less efficient than just having one China, and just uses up the last of the resources quicker and inefficiently..
It seems to me it’s rare for people to comprehend Cactus, so only get part of the overall picture and what “we” as in humanity are doing is denying reality and heading into collapse faster than otherwise would have happened…
Thank you Hideaway.
I agree No1 does not discuss the complete picture.
If No1 is Chinese propaganda we would not expect them to discuss cactus, and if No1 is a normal person we would not expect him to understand cactus.
I was looking for confirmation that No1 is not deliberately misleading us on the Chinese control of minerals and I think you confirmed that.
I did a deep dive into the post, looking for counterarguments to the parts. I found five things:
The tungsten, gallium, germanium and antimony industries have more locations he hasn’t mentioned for both mining and processing that can theoretically be under US control, but they are small, between 4 and 17% of the market.
Magnesium can be warehoused and stockpiled without oxidising or burning by coating it in a thin layer of wax, which is in fact the standard. 20 foot billets of Magnesium are usually shipped in wax. That said, the processing of ore into useful metal is as China-controlled as he describes.
Everything else checks out.
Thank you anon.
So we need to be a little cautious with No1 because magnesium was claimed to be the biggest risk due to the inability to stockpile.
Given the large quantity of data in that essay it’s not a integrity destroying mistake.
Excellent cactus data in today’s post by quark.
It looks to me like quark supports the supernova hypothesis.
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2026/01/el-agotamiento-de-las-reservas-de.html
The EU just decided to stop importing all natural gas and LNG from Russia.
It’s a big decision given that the EU needs natural gas to survive. Especially since the best alternative is more expensive LNG from a now unfriendly and unreliable US who’s own security of supply is uncertain with fracking soon to decline.
Serious question. Why?
Here are some possibilities I can think of:
Does anyone understand the truth here?
The EU figures that not losing the war is more dangerous for the job security of their political class than adding more economic pain to their constituents, who are assumed to be able to absorb unlimited costs.
I’d argue that they aren’t wrong. Russian victory (Russian occupation as far as Lviv/Odessa and a long cold war of both sides making further arms buildups at the Polish border under worsening mutual poverty) would cause a huge loss of face in Europe and dozens of major electoral losses to the more overt kind of fascists.
As an example, there has been approximately one news story getting big enough every three months since early 2023 to break out of the German news and get translated into English/French/Japanese etc news on the topic of CDR or AfD politicians being caught on an open mic talking about attacking Poland, seizing Polish territory or conducting mass arrests of Poles. It’s just unpopular in Germany at present because the centrists have not been radicalised by a loss of face. There are other examples of each countries respective pet irredentist claim emerging rarely in Belgium, Spain, Austria, Romania and Sweden off the top of my head.
I assume you are European and you think the majority of European citizens believe Russia has no justification for attacking Ukraine and therefore citizens will be very upset if Ukraine surrenders?
That’s a very sad statement about citizen understanding of modern history if true.
Russia has some excellent strategic reasons for attacking Ukraine, some moderately good paranoia reasons for attacking Ukraine and barely any direct casus belli (about as much as Trump does with Venezuela, just a motive of enmity) but the western population doesn’t see any of that.
Regardless of national origin, the median member of the western public sees it as a question of a mostly good underdog (with a few blemishes, nobody’s perfect) being attacked without provocation by an inept and cruel bully. Regardless of how metaphors about people don’t make sense in the context of countries, the western cultural complex has no space for stories about the bully winning, except as the second act of three-parters.
If the bully does win, the public in [insert European country] will get very anxious about whether all of Europe is weak enough to receive noticeable bombing damage in the third act of their imagined psychodrama. It’s not like they can soberly assess military sizes or the political aims of states, after all.
.
(Incidentally, the state of the war AFAICT is that both sides are 100% dependent on Chinese deliveries of drones of different sizes – approx. 2000 a week – and that Ukraine is losing the human attrition race while Russia is losing the vehicle and logistics equipment attrition race, with the winner coming down to which race ends first)
Thanks for explaining the Europe view Anon.
There’s so little empathy in today’s world.
Russia has been invaded 3 times in recent history. They know everyone hates slavs. Imagine being Putin with missiles on your border in Ukraine and having maybe 5 minutes to decide how to respond to a possible attack. You couldn’t even relax when sitting on the toilet.
Now imagine how the US would respond if pissed off Canada invited Russia to protect it from Trump by putting missiles on the Canadian border pointing at Washington.
Empathy is so important and so rare.
Forgot to reply to your last point.
With so many information channels to choose from, and with many making a living by satisfying biases of their audience, it is very hard to understand the truth about any complex and controversial subject today.
My understanding of the Ukraine war status is completely different than yours.
I think Russia is decisively winning and the reason it has dragged on so long is that Russia is deliberately going slow to minimize its own losses because offense is always costly, and is using time to methodically destroy the Ukraine military so very little threat remains when the war ends, and is being cautious to not trigger a nuclear war with NATO by being too aggressive.
For me a very similar question arises that is crucial for the outcome of the current Russia-NATO conflict but which has been barely discussed.
I wonder why Russia does not ban their gas exports to the EU or uranium exports to the US even though the Russian leadership sees themselves in an outright war with NATO and banning energy exports would hurt their enemies for sure.
If I read pro-Russian pundits they comment with schadenfreude that the West cannot live without Russian imports but they avoid to explain the rationale. So why? Possible reasons:
– Russia needs the export revenues.
– Exporting only to China or India would be a geopolitical risk that is too big to be taken.
– Maybe keeping up the exports means having a leverage on the west.
Anyway, I am tempted to consider this as an admission of weakness. So getting back to your question, Rob, maybe the EU considers stopping gas imports will harm Russia more than the EU. But I have to admit that I am also looking for answers to my question as well.
BTW: My first post here. Hello all!
Hello and welcome.
I think it’s a reasonable assumption that limits to growth have caused the economies of all countries to be in worse shape than most assume.
This probably explains many strange behaviors such as:
Who understands what in modern world? Are doomers a rare occurrence? I do think many people understands more than acknowledged. I had a correspondence with two public health professors today (selection bias: has written about sustainability). .We was writing some philosophical articles about the unsustainability of modern healthcare. (Interestingly one of the professors has shown that cancer screening does not save lives and with externalities it takes life). Behind closed doors both of the public health professors where doomers. One good quotation from today was: “You cant escape modernitys iron claw. It is a death grip.”
James with examples of how AI can be used to create video.
Not sure how I had never seen this clip before. So embarrassing that I used to watch the Daily Show & Colbert Report every day.
ps. I just got done with that Weinstein/Bigtree interview. I enjoyed it about as much as I can from two people whose bottom-line concern is that civilization keeps marching on for eternity.
Del gave me a great reason to flip over to being a pro-vaxxer:
LOL, oh Del. Break out of that box you’ve enclosed yourself in. Dip your toe in the doomasphere and get a grip on reality.
The highlight for me was the story about Jake Scott showing up to court with his 661 studies to refute the idea that there’s been no placebo-based trials for the child vaccines. And how that lawyer Aaron Siri destroyed Jake’s 661 studies without even breaking a sweat. Haha!!
LOL, cactus sure does cast a different light on people who think they understand what’s going on.
Covid drained the pool so we could see who had no brains or no ethics.
So many people I used to respect like Sam Harris are now dead to me.
It says something about our species that it is so rare for someone to say I’m sorry, I made a mistake.
The only one I can recall was Scott Adams who after he was diagnosed with terminal cancer admitted he was wrong about mRNA.
Rob … “It says something about our species that it is so rare for someone to say I’m sorry, I made a mistake.”
one of the lines I love from the disaster movie 2012 is when the geologist is talking to the president in the Oval office, and when questioned about the ‘end of the world scenario timing’, states “I was wrong”.
The president turns to the chief of staff and says “do you know how many times I’ve heard those words in this office, Zero”.
Sort of like the rest of the world.
Has anyone ever heard a sitting politician ever state they were wrong about anything?? Me neither…
Life is not an intellectual exercise: to admit a serious mistake is to give one’s enemies an angle of attack, a hook. ‘Man is wolf to man’, etc.
Preptip:
I just ordered a spare phone. It might be a good time to get a spare given the future effect of silver and copper prices on electronics, and the circling black swans that could disrupt supply chains.
I chose the just launched Samsung Galaxy A17. It’s one of the lowest priced phones on the market, but it’s functionality and performance is plenty good enough, as demonstrated by it’s predecessor the A16 being the top selling phone in the world.
I am currently using the A15, predecessor to the A16 and A17. I have no complaints except that the camera is ok but not great.
The A17 improves the camera with optical image stabilization while not increasing the price from the A15’s 2024 price.
A good prepper reason to choose the A17 is that it may be the last version from Samsung with a micro-SD card slot. I add a 512GB memory card which permits me to carry dozens of movies, and many thousands of music albums, audiobooks, and books for entertainment when the grid is down. In case you’re not aware, flagship phones do not support micro-SD cards, and buying a version with big capacity has eye-watering prices.
The A17 comes in 2 versions: 5G and 4G. I don’t need 5G so choose the $70 cheaper 4G version.
I paid CAD $191.
That’s an amazing price when you think about the technology and components that go into a phone. When something’s too good to be true, it probably won’t last.
Even though my current laptop is not in the best condition, I want to keep it for as long as possible. This is also because I am not in a position where I can buy a new one at the moment.
I’m nursing an old laptop too.
If I was rich I probably would not buy a new laptop because I hate the latest designs. They’re all form over function.
Everyone wants cool looking thin laptops.
I have an old chunky laptop with a big battery and an 500GB SSD for the system drive and 2TB HDD for data drive.
They don’t make laptops like this anymore.
All the latest laptops have a single 1TB SSD. That’s not enough capacity for anyone that is serious about media and is planning for the internet to go down.
I’m very gentle with my laptop to not damage the screen and I stock spare drives which are the most likely component (except the battery) to fail. If the battery fails it will still operate with an adapter.
I have a similar lap top with amazing battery life. Except I am not careful with it, having spilled coffee on it multiple times and dropped it. It is glued back together but still works really well
My favorite ‘under 50’ doomer, Andrea P has a new one today that I liked.
(apo)calyptic voices | 4. The “Gets It” Divide
She also shared this reddit link and called it the best writeup she’s ever seen re why some people are able to see what we see.
What do you guys think? Is the reddit comment saying anything profound or is just a bunch of words to describe Rob’s “we have defective denial genes”. I kinda think it’s the latter.
ps. Sam Mitchell had a hilarious new years resolution; To stay in bed for half of his remaining life. LOL, and he seems to be sticking to it so far. Goes to bed at 11pm, gets out of bed at 11am. Bravo Sammy!
My cat, Mr Zeus, has it all figured out re life. He sleeps 20 hours a day. Goddamn I’m so jealous.
And whenever I want him to chill out and quit bugging me… all I have to do is play this excellent song on and it works as a lullaby every time.😊
I tried reading the reddit comment but it had too many words with a kitchen sink of ideas and insufficient insight for my taste, plus it smells like an AI author.
It is definitely Chat GPT, those lines and that structure are a giveaway
https://substack.com/@gnug315/note/c-205895368?
Jan Andrew Bloxham had another good comment. Whole thing worth reading. This is only a third of it:
Wow – he is really is an awesome writer.
Some of us grow nihilistic and misanthropic and truly feel it will be good riddance when we wipe ourselves out. Some of us are highly sensitive people whose heart bleeds for life on Earth, sacrificing their lives and sanity to keep fighting the maelstrom of nonsense that engulfs them.
It’s possible to be both at the same time.
And re the Abyss, I read a meme a while back:
Ethical responsibilities to their own children…hmm not sure about that line.
Those summers that went on forever as kids, we can still hold onto them, why not.
Bullseye!!!
Coordinated anti-Iran propaganda dialed up to 11 on my UK and US news feeds this morning.
Can you believe how evil the Iranians are? They dragged injured protesters out of hospitals to kill them.
No mention of the 200,000 murdered civilians buried under the Gaza rubble.
One air craft carrier arrived in the middle east yesterday. Not enough for a sustained war.
Maybe another decapitation attempt?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/01/27/an-echo-from-a-distant-past/
Same old story, always!
Saludos
el mar
Bad news, but I like Tim Watkins echos from a distant past.
Some realism in the background of UK Government in this report. Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security.
“Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity. The world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse. Without major intervention to reverse the current trend, this is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond.”
“High Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse (irreversible loss of function beyond repair).”
National security assessment – global biodiversity loss ecosystem collapse and national security
These reports they put out, Australia had a similar one back in 2022. Our State of the Environment report, which The Conversation covered:
https://theconversation.com/natural-systems-in-australia-are-unravelling-if-they-collapse-human-society-could-too-187263
In my earnest naivete at the time, I did a submission to our local govt, to their Climate Action plan, with reference to this report. And then hilariously a year or so later, I got a call from this old lady who worked at council in env dept, wanting to talk about ‘community food gardens’, I think i might have just laughed or cried while on the phone when she mentioned this.
I also referenced another report in my submission, from 2019 by Dept of Defence, that Russ Grayson did a big write up of on Medium, he wrote then (2023)
View at Medium.com
And what is it about old guys and the Roman Empire?? my partner had a group of drinking buddies back in the day, and one of them, when ever he had had a few too many, loved to talk about Ancient Rome, and that became his nickname and whole identity.
This old white guy doesn’t think too much about Rome. I was just responding to el mar.
I posted this before but in case you missed it and long for the good old days of a simpler life in Rome, this will set you straight and might make you appreciate why Jack Alpert is working so hard to find any plan that might retain a few of the best aspects of modernity post-cactus.
Personally, I’d rather live as a hunter-gatherer, than live in any urban area before 1900.
I totally agree. Cities before 1900 was a population sink. Growth in population was dependent on immigration from rural areas. The big shift came with sewer systems. This shift to internal population growth, begun in London consistent around the mid-19th century. German cities mostly late 19th century. Interesting in this regard is the history of John Snow and his epidemiological work. The book the Ghost map tels about this history. It is a good book. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36086.The_Ghost_Map
Thanks el mar.
While there are many similarities between our plight and that of the Romans, there are several big differences.
They were living on top an ocean of untapped fossil carbon and high quality mineral reserves that simply needed some complexity growth to extract.
They had not destabilized the climate so agriculture was possible for another 1500+ years instead of the 100-ish years our survivors will have.
The biggest difference for me is that in the Roman Empire less than 2% of the population actually lived in Rome and less that 10% were urbanised, with most of the other 90% involved in food production and material production (charcoal, mines, timber, clay, stone etc) in rural areas.
Today in every western country, 80% plus are urbanised relying on diesel transport for their food, materials, and most energy (as in trucks and crews to go repair when the electric lines fail, all with imported equipment etc).
A very good point that I missed.
Perfectly correct: whereas we have, so to speak, cut away the supporting rungs of the ladder in our rapid ascent, the Romans still had only a fraction of the population at the very top, and all the others were still intact and occupied.
Absent the few great cities, people were still skilled enough to know how to survive. Moreover, if they fled, died of plague, were massacred (rather frequent!) etc, incomers also knew how to survive rurally and could take over seamlessly.
Vikings could, as they did in my village, kill all the local men and step straight in to farming their land, using their tools.
When the University of Cambridge started to build its huge suburb to the west of the modern city, Edington, (mostly to house very lucrative Chinese grad students) they were surprised to find evidence of a Roman suburb which had comprised metal working foundries and some large villas.
Post-Rome, this became land farmed by the Anglo-Saxons and Vikings for some 1500 years, not even a faint memory of the urban past being retained. Our cities will by no means be farmable, to state the obvious.
I’m still here, but fixing a siphon that failed when you needed it in 45.8 degree C temperatures is not that much fun. Fires within 500m of our place, across the valley.
In the afternoon we retreated to my daughters place in Geelong over 100km away, to stay the night. Getting home tomorrow will be interesting with many roads officially blocked with checkpoints manned to stop all non emergency vehicles getting through.
We know the back tracks and so do all the locals. Apparently the ’emergency services’ think it’s better for locals to travel through dodgy, thickly bushed, back tracks than use the main roads in bad fire situations.
The amount of human stupidity never fails to amaze me. Yet we all think it’s just denial around here..
how did your siphon fail? The under ground pipes from our dams are a potential failure point in our system – that and the fire pumps themselves.
I suspect it was the extreme heat near the pumps themselves expanded the joints enough to let air in. Two totally separate systems that have worked flawlessly for the last couple of years, failing on the same day, had to have something in common.
To me it’s just par for the course, expect the unexpected. None of our man made systems are flawless, we just expect them to be and consider they are if they last long enough, until they fail.
Someone on a discord server posted this:
MORT and the Maximum Power Principle means that the chances of us doing this negligible. And even if we tried to do that, we would likely trigger CACTUS.
She doesn’t understand anything.
Modernity is burning carbon.
Modernity ends if you stop burning carbon.
To capture carbon you will burn more carbon.
Modernity will end soon without help from climate change.
A wise species would model cactus and steer what capital and time we have left to help the survivors.
Personally, I’d protect biodiversity, especially old growth and rain forests, and I’d plant trees.
The survivors are going to need wood, lots and lots of wood.
https://un-denial.com/2018/02/08/on-burning-carbon/
I think it would be possible if the population was like 250 million LOL, but I’m sure they weren’t thinking about that
Not collapse related but tomorrow Jan 27, is Mozart’s 270th birthday, so I wanted to share some music.
First you surprise us with a sense of humor.
Now you disclose you’re a classic music connoisseur.
What’s next?