By Bill Rees: On the Virtues of Self-Delusion—or maybe not!

Dr. Bill Rees, Professor Emeritus from the University of British Columbia, gave a presentation on our overshoot predicament earlier this month to a zoom meeting of the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome (CACOR).

I’m a longtime fan of Dr. Rees and consider him to be one of the most aware and knowledgeable people on the planet.

This is, I believe, the best talk I’ve seen by Dr. Rees and he covers all of the important issues, including topics like overpopulation that most of his peers avoid.

Presentations like this will probably not change our trajectory but nevertheless I find some comfort knowing there are a few other people thinking about the same issues. This can be a very lonely space.

The Q&A is also very good. I found it interesting to hear how much effort Dr. Rees has made to educate our leaders about what we should be doing to reduce future suffering. He was frank that no one to date, including the Green party, is open to his message. Not surprising, but sad. Also inspiring that someone of his stature is at least trying.

Summary

Climate-change and other environmental organizations urge governments to act decisively/rapidly to decarbonize the economy and halt further development of fossil fuel reserves. These demands arguably betray:

– ignorance of the role of energy in the modern economy;

– ill-justified confidence in society’s ability to transition to 100% green renewable energy;

– no appreciation of the ecological consequences of attempting to do so and;

– little understanding of the social implications.

Without questioning the need to abandon fossil fuels, I will argue that the dream of a smooth energy transition is little more than a comforting shared illusion. Moreover, even if it were possible it would not solve climate change and would exacerbate the real existential threat facing society, namely overshoot.

I then explore some of the consequences and implications of (the necessary) abandonment of fossil fuels in the absence of adequate substitutes, and how governments and MTI society should be responding to these unspoken biophysical realities.

Biography

Dr. William Rees is a population ecologist, ecological economist, Professor Emeritus, and former Director of the University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning.

His academic research focuses on the biophysical prerequisites for sustainability. This focus led to co-development (with his graduate students) of ecological footprint analysis, a quantitative tool that shows definitively that the human enterprise is in dysfunctional overshoot. (We would need five Earth-like planets to support just the present world population sustainably with existing technologies at North American material standards.)

Frustrated by political unresponsiveness to worsening indicators, Dr. Rees also studies the biological and psycho-cognitive barriers to environmentally rational behavior and policies. He has authored hundreds of peer reviewed and popular articles on these topics. Dr. Rees is a Fellow of Royal Society of Canada and also a Fellow of the Post-Carbon Institute; a founding member and former President of the Canadian Society for Ecological Economics; a founding Director of the OneEarth Initiative; and a Director of The Real Green New Deal. He was a full member of the Club of Rome from 2013 until 2018. His international awards include the Boulding Memorial Award in Ecological Economics, the Herman Daly Award in Ecological Economics and a Blue Planet Prize (jointly with his former student, Dr. Mathis Wackernagel).

I left the following comment on YouTube:

I’m a fellow British Columbian and longtime admirer of Dr. Rees. Thank you for the excellent presentation.

I agree with Dr. Rees’ prescription for what needs to be done but I think there’s a step that must precede his first step of acknowledging our overshoot predicament.

Given the magnitude and many dimensions of our predicament an obvious question is why do so few people see it?

I found a theory by Dr. Ajit Varki that provides a plausible explanation, and answers other important questions about our unique species.

The Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory posits that the human species with its uniquely powerful intelligence exists because it evolved to deny unpleasant realities.

If true, this implies that the first step to any positive meaningful change must be to acknowledge our tendency to deny unpleasant realities.

Varki explains his theory here:

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-25466-7_6

A nice video summary by Varki is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgYqW2Kgkg

My interpretations of the theory are here:
https://un-denial.com/denial-2/theory-short/

https://un-denial.com/2015/11/12/undenial-manifesto-energy-and-denial/

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theblondbeast
theblondbeast
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 16, 2022 7:32 am

Thanks for this summary. I will listen to it. I’m surprised by some of the conclusions. On the petrodollar – Lynn Alden had the best summary I’ve seen, and a novel conclusion that perhaps being the reserve currency is not all it’s cracked up to be. No resource connection, however. I’ll comment again when I finish.

https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

Preliminarily, I’m skeptical why the war would be a necessary cover for this if the US truly wanted to change. It seemed more of a trend already underway to me, one that wouldn’t require any catalyst.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 15, 2022 4:27 am

Pity the poor Europeans who use diesel for almost all personal cars. I worry more about how this will effect agriculture and food prices. If it killed Amazon all the better.
AJ

scarr0w
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 15, 2022 8:35 am

Alice Friedemann called it back in 2016. Diesel will be the crumbling keystone of the global economy. Our recent fracked oil here in the U.S. has relatively less diesel fraction, so we are exposed to the more global commodity market.

BTW- I was half finished with “Ukraine on Fire”, went back to finish this morning, and it’s now not on Vimeo. The censor bots have been busy.

perran
perran
Reply to  scarr0w
March 16, 2022 1:06 pm

I’ve since discovered it is still available on rumble https://rumble.com/embed/vubrga/

MickN
MickN
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 16, 2022 2:58 am

Sounds like the old hippy shit combined with this new “manifesting” crap.
I’ll stick with Steve Keen.
“Equally, both Labour and Capital are “sterile”, to use the old Physiocratic term: without energy, they can’t produce anything. Labour without energy is a corpse; capital without energy is a sculpture. ”
We can have the most brilliant leadership from hereon (which we won’t) and still be fucked – leadership without energy is as sterile as labour and capital.
Some good news – just like that James is back https://megacancer.wordpress.com/
That’s my morning reading sorted.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 14, 2022 3:56 am

Flotation Device Administration…awesome.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 14, 2022 1:33 am

In general, I find this whole Cookie topic is making internet usage so annoying that I often want to quit. Every time I go to a new website, they ask me about whether I consent with all their cookies or not. The consent with all cookies option is most of the time more prominent than all other options (partial or full rejection). I imagine that most people are already so annoyed that they just click on accept to get on. If these cookies are then used to rate me, this makes the whole internet a minefield, where you have to be extremely careful about each step you take.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Secretface2097
March 14, 2022 10:44 am

Since this DuckDuckGo crap I ditched Firefox/DuckDuckGo and went with the Epic Privacy browser. They provide a free VPN and for $2.50/month have a private search engine too. They are in India and seem to have everything that TOR has but faster. The problem is that everytime you close the browser all cookies are deleted. They will save your bookmarks and web site passwords/logins, but third party log ins are crap. Like here where Rob uses those WordPress “shits”. They make me log on anytime I want to comment BUT they will not let me “Like” anything because they can’t track me or something. Every piece of internet software is trying to exploit the user, it’s just how much are you willing to put up with for some privacy?
AJ

gwb
gwb
March 11, 2022 2:55 pm

There is a drone video currently being widely shown online, showing Russian tanks being attacked in Ukraine:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/mar/10/russian-tanks-ambushed-war-ukraine-kiev-brovary-video

If you look closely, the watermark “Azov” in Cyrillic is visible at lower right. The Azov Battalion are the neo-Nazis we said we weren’t training…

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 10, 2022 3:15 pm

Sorry,
I don’t think Patzek is correct. If Russia wanted to they could be indiscriminately killing civilians and destroying infrastructure. They don’t appear to be (not by the few deaths reported or the few buildings destroyed). We (the west) have this great meme (democracy, freedom, opportunity) that is basically a lie – Patzek obviously believes it. Putin has said multiple times he wants a buffer between Russia and NATO and the west trampled on that idea. He will get his buffer or Patzek’s beloved Poland will be a wasteland along with his adopted country. I hope Putin is successful in getting his buffer and taking down the “Empire of Lies” (the west) a notch.
AJ

gwb
gwb
March 10, 2022 11:59 am

The U.S. MSM has been pushing the line that the existence of chemical/biological labs in Ukraine was a Kremlin/CCP/QAnon Fake News conspiracy theory, but it was blown out of the water by State Department Ukraine meddler-in-chief Victoria Nuland’s admission that, yes, there are biolabs in Ukraine, in response to a question by GOP Senator Marco Rubio. Oops. Well, we’re trying to help Ukraine keep them out of the hands of the Russians. I wonder what they’ve been cooking up in those labs? Maybe to sidestep the ban on gain-of-function research in the U.S.?

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/victoria-nuland-ukraine-has-biological?s=r

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 10, 2022 10:39 am

Yeah, to bad about DuckDuckGone (more Silicon Valley posturing). What can I use for a search engine on Firefox now? Any suggestions on a better (safer, anonymous) browser?
AJ

theblondbeast
theblondbeast
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 10, 2022 11:12 am

I use Brave

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 9, 2022 11:45 pm

I´m feeling the same. A few days ago, my mother asked me on the phone what I think about the current news. I knew which direction this talk was going and tried to play dumb. She insisted that we talk about the Russia/Ukraine war, but I told her that I feel bad about the people involved but otherwise don´t have the time to inform myself on a sufficient level to have a substantiated opinion. This irritated her totally, the flow of the talk was totally disrupted until I changed to another topic.

Yesterday, I talked with her again. This time we somehow came back to the Covid issue. We have a few relatives, who are totally paranoid. Not only are they quadruple vaccinated, but they also only interact with other vaccinated people. As we wanted to visit my mother this weekend, she told me that some of these paranoid relatives also want to come. I offered her to test the whole familiy before coming over to her, but she is really ashamed that we are not vaccinated and told me that she will cancel the visit of the paranoid relatives. I also somehow got from our talk that she does not forward invitations to larger family events (birthday parties, weddings) to us due to our “outcast” status. And all this fuss happens even though no one in our family or circle of friends was seriously ill with corona. Even in my mother’s generation (70+) there is no one who even had to go to the hospital, let alone died from it.

Normally, my mother is a pretty critical person who often got into trouble at work for saying the truth, but now she seems to be totally engulfed by the official propaganda.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Secretface2097
March 9, 2022 11:47 pm

Addendum: at work, the two minute hate also changed from the unvaccinated to the Russians like a switch was flipped. I am glad that I can work via Zoom/Teams and can switch off my Webcam that my colleagues cannot see my annoyed face.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 10, 2022 4:51 am

I feel for you. I never discuss Covid or Ukraine outside my home. My wife kinda agrees with me on Ukraine. I no longer watch MSM news, or if its on I mute it. So illogical, jingoistic and emotional crap. Most people want to go along with the narrative and fit in – evolution made that a generally successful strategy.
AJ

Gaia gardener
Gaia gardener
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 10, 2022 3:06 am

Hi Rob, sorry to hear you’ve had a rough day. It’s hard being a Cassandra at any time in history. The present is always the culmination of everything we’ve ever done, known, and have been, but we’re at a very pointy end indeed! In situations as you have gone through with friends and family, I suppose the best thing we can take away from it is knowing we are unique human beings who desire to connect with others and try to be seen and understood. Even if it brings despair and frustration, we are ever hopeful that we can find harmony in that middle ground of letting be. I find much solace these days in trying to practice even more compassion, maybe we can accept others’ perspective as a result of the myriad twists and turns that make up their biopsychosocial lives, even if they cannot accept ours. On a very bright side, you certainly have a thriving tribe here! Thank you for being the trailblazer who has lit a path for us to find and make our own. I feel very fortunate to have found this rarefied band and I am thrilled to have just discovered that one amongst you is practically my neighbour, hello there in the Huon Valley, Tasmania! I’m in Glen Huon; it’s a small world after all. This is my first public post on Rob’s site and I just want to send out all my positive thoughts for everyone here. There’s a poignant quote from The Lord of the Rings that has become a guiding beacon for me: “ I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo. “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to with the time that is given us.” Let us go forth boldly, but never alone.

monk
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 10, 2022 12:07 pm

Westerners can’t help but virtue signal and are allergic to critical thinking. Even considering a different viewpoint is treated like a sin. My partner and I were just talking today about how Telegram is viewed negatively by NZ media for spreading misinformation. Yet is praised by the same media for helping anti-Putin Russians connect with each other. Hypocrisy boils my blood and I feel like my culture is rife with it

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 9, 2022 6:24 am

If the West really cuts off the supply of all these strategic minerals from Russia it can’t be good news for Western economies. There are no replacements for these metals and the price will stay high. Biden etc al, really have no clue what they’re doing (Obama was a lawyer and although smart has no background in science, so is clueless-if he is pulling Biden’s strings?).
AJ

theblondbeast
theblondbeast
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 9, 2022 12:24 pm

He didn’t mention uranium – of which Russia is responsible for about 40% of exported enriched uranium. Good luck going nuclear to try and separate Europe from Russia.

Perran
Perran
March 8, 2022 4:12 pm

Australia might do better than most in a nuclear confrontation. It will be largely spared the worst from nuclear fallout and direct casualties. But nowhere is safe from overpopulation. I don’t think many Australian’s realise how grossly overpopulated our country is. I think the same applies for new zealand. Sure we produce a surplus at the moment but with an absence of fossil fuels these two countries food surplus will evaporate.

monk
Reply to  Perran
March 8, 2022 6:53 pm

Most people in Aus and NZ live in cities. It’s only about 1% of our pop doing agriculture. interesting times ahead

monk
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 9, 2022 1:17 pm

They reported in the NZ news today that we produce enough food to feed 40 million people. Most of this food goes to Asia and the Pacific

CampbellS
Reply to  monk
March 9, 2022 10:09 pm

I always wonder if that stat is a typical “calories per day” equivalent or just 40 million people buy our food products.

The Future is Rural report by Jason Bradford is a favourite of mine to push on LinkedIn but nobody ever really takes any real interest. More evidence of denial of reality me thinks.

We’re going flat out in the garden and food forest at our place. My wife is running a local seed swap this weekend. I’m one of the lucky ones who’s partner is on the same page with respect to overshoot and energy depletion.

Perran
Perran
March 8, 2022 1:51 pm

Well rob if it goes nuclear and you survive and your prepared to sail your welcome to live out your days in the pacific south West. Harwoods road, Geeveston Tasmania. The invitation will remain indefinate. You can delete this once you’ve read it.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 8, 2022 1:09 pm

Great video. Seems they agree with Saker.is and this is all going according to Russian plans. It’s also nice to see that Poland is pushing back against U.S. making them combatants. Of course, if we avoid a nuclear war (?hopium) – that the resulting Greatest Depression wipes the Dems from power in the U.S.. My only concern then is what would replace them? Worse? Who knows.
AJ

monk
March 7, 2022 6:05 pm

I’m starting to get scared proper https://www.artberman.com/2022/03/07/oil-shock/

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 8, 2022 4:33 am

Sorry, but wasn’t that the point of this “wag the dog” exercise by the idiots (Biden et al in the west). They were losing the Covid narrative and the everything bubble had been expanded to infinite proportions and was going to blow. BUT, with supreme hubris they think that they can control this thing they have unleashed before it goes totally nuclear – not realizing it is collapse from overshoot. (Isn’t this what all elites do in all terminal civilizations at the top?).
AJ

required
required
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 7, 2022 6:56 am

TTF Gas is up 1,485% and UK Gas 1,392%

required
required
Reply to  required
March 7, 2022 6:57 am

Year over Year that is.

Perran
Perran
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 9, 2022 2:42 pm

Just got a quote for urea. $1850t bulk. 12 months ago it was $600.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 6, 2022 1:34 pm

Excellent post by bad cattitude, except that he is in complete denial of our overshoot/energy cliff situation.
AJ

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 6, 2022 8:21 am

If I unplugged my internet I would be blind. The only alternative source of information without the internet is the mainstream media, the “Empire of lies”(as Putin so accurately calls it). The internet is frustrating in that there are lies on all sides, I agree with Chuck Watson that you have to read both sides and figure the truth is somewhere in the middle and that each side is spinning it to their advantage. I also have been reading saker.is on occasion just to see what the Russian “man on the ground”s perspective is. Better perspective than CNN or Fox.
AJ

David
David
March 5, 2022 6:48 pm

I’ve been spending time at the Saker.is website learning about the Ukraine/ Russia situation. Below is one of the best comments I’ve read recently:

Rodrigo on March 05, 2022 · at 3:05 pm EST/EDT

The Russian invasion is succeeding militarily, just as the US knew it would. The US plan to 1)fracture Western Europe from Russia and to 2) demonize, weaken and isolate Russia is also succeeding. The objective of the Russians is a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine. The remaining objective of the US (the two above are virtually fait accompli) is to sow chaos and stoke an insurgency in Ukraine that bleeds Russia. Each side has a strategy and a game plan. Each side’s strategy is unfolding according to plan. Neither side is crazy or irrational. Neither plan is stupid. At the top neither side is shitting their pants or hysterical. Each side is methodically executing its respective plan. We’ll see how things develop.

AJ
AJ
March 5, 2022 4:24 pm

I’m so depressed. Just saw a Reuters poll that 74% of U.S. idiots think the U.S./NATO should apply a no fly zone in Ukraine. I think I’m going to start drinking again. Idiot leaders of idiot people starting WWIII.
AJ

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 4, 2022 5:16 am

I also have never watched Fox News. Knowing that it was owned by Murdock & family is enough to me to let me know it is usually right wing crap MSM. And was usually a supporter for Trump. However, I have seen/heard enough to know that Tucker Carson is occasionally right about some things – like this analysis of Harris and the Biden inept administration. Sadly both right & left politics in the U.S. is bought and paid for by corporate interests in the service of the elite.
AJ

AJ
AJ
March 3, 2022 1:59 pm

Probably the best definition of what a rational actor is. And that Putin in his world with his information is a rational actor. Our foreign policy establishment is as irrational (stupid?) as it gets??
Chuck Watson: https://blogenkiops.wordpress.com/2022/03/03/is-putin-rational/
AJ

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 4, 2022 1:52 am

Double standards seem to be present everywhere in our society. Hartmut Danisch is a famous German blogger, who is dedicated to exposing these double standards. It is always a joy to read his snarky articles. One of his favourites is activists/domestic terrorists. A good example for activists are the people of organizations like Fridays for Future or Extinction Rebellion. They are “allowed” to terrorize the average joe with their intrusive actions, while the “Querdenker” movement, that are critical of Corona policies, are condemned as domestic terrorists (or even Nazis) by the media because their cause is not in alignment with the rulers.