By Bill Rees: On the Virtues of Self-Delusion—or maybe not!

It’s quite troubling that censorship is getting more aggressive every day. Unfortunately it seems to be working. I asked a friend for his assessment of Ukraine today and quietly listened. He basically echoed all of the mainstream talking points with zero nuance or skepticism. Ditto on covid.

Democracy does not work with a corrupt news media and citizens that do not think.

Nice interview with Dr. Pierre Kory.

This is the best explanation I’ve come across of the crime of the century: Why our leaders killed millions by blocking effective early treatments.

The only thing NIH recommended for early treatment was Tylenol despite the evidence for the effectiveness of Tylenol with covid being slightly negative.

https://philharper.substack.com/p/dr-pierre-kory-the-digger-episode?s=r

RIP. Maybe waited too long to boost the last booster.

Listening to intelligent pundits talk about the economy makes me wonder if these guys really understand anything? Or perhaps they’re all deeply in denial? Or perhaps I’m too pessimistic?

Some big themes I’m hearing include:
– inflation will get worse because the effects of the Ukraine shock have not rippled through the economy yet
– central banks will be forced to raise interest rates a lot because inflation is toxic to the election of politicians
– it will be bad for bond owners because bond values fall as the interest rate increases
– other asset holders should be ok provided they don’t have a lot of debt
– energy will keep flowing but with an upward trending price
– the global monetary system will move away from the US currency but will continue to function well
– growth will continue

I’m thinking instead:
– in about 2008 we hit physical limits to growth
– we kept the (fractional reserve) wheels on by buying growth with lots of debt
– we kept the debt affordable by buying lots of debt with printed money
– covid brought this unsustainable game to a climax by disrupting supply chains and by forcing governments to spend lots of printed money
– now the combined effect of energy constraints, supply chain problems, and circulating printed money have created inflation
– inflation created tension in buyers struggling to afford energy to survive, and tension in energy sellers not wanting to be paid with devaluing currency
– this tension erupted in a war
– the war will amplify all of the forces that created the war with more supply chain disruptions and more government spending of printed money
– all paths lead at best to a depression and social unrest:
a) if central banks raise the interest rate to constrain inflation a lot of debt will default and less money will be borrowed leading to degrowth (.i.e. depression), a big drop in all asset prices, and social unrest due to shortages and/or unaffordable prices
b) if central banks don’t raise the interest rate then banks won’t lend which will cause the economy to contract (i.e. depression), a big drop in all asset prices, and social unrest due to shortages and/or unaffordable prices

This is of course a logical conclusion because there is no such thing as a free lunch except when you are temporarily blessed with plentiful cheap surplus energy.

When the affordable energy is gone you can pretend there is a free lunch by spending borrowed money and assuming it will be repaid from future growth.

Eventually it becomes impossible to keep pretending and all of the wealth created with the borrowed money must vaporize, plus a vig for friction and momentum, and another vig to pay for the resulting wars.

Given the sanctions placed on Russia by the west, does anyone understand why Russia is being cautious on ratcheting up the pressure that could be applied by curtailing energy flow or demanding gold for energy? Seems like an obvious response. What am I missing?

Brief update from Chuck Watson today.

https://blogenkiops.wordpress.com/2022/03/23/doom-stalks-the-earth/

And of course the Ukraine thing grinds on. Hard to know what to say about that, the level of propaganda all around is insane, and there is virtually no reliable information in the public realm. So trust no one, and stay tuned … I suspect we are in that dangerous period where things are moving to a new equilibrium, but the people who don’t want or realize that may act to blow up (literally in this case) that trend. Perhaps by early April we will know.

Very interesting discussion on the end game for fiat currencies and the global economy.

Nate Hagens advised me not to place much confidence in analysis from The Saker and said the source he trusts most for the Russian perspective is Chuck Watson @ https://blogenkiops.wordpress.com/

I went back and read Watson’s post explaining the history that led to the Ukraine invasion. It’s very interesting, especially the explanation for why US leaders hate Putin so much. As usual, it’s all about money.

https://blogenkiops.wordpress.com/2019/09/25/russia-ukraine-and-impeachment-some-missing-context/

…why are US politicians so wrapped up in the Ukraine-Russia conflict? And the answer to that is simple: money.

This brings us to the second aspect: the post Soviet economy, and the radical, rapid, wholesale privatization that was prescribed/required in order to receive western aid. The FSU became a playground for various economists to experiment with their pet theories. It was a disaster. This article in The Nation from 1998 has some good background.

“After seven years of economic “reform” financed by billions of dollars in U.S. and other Western aid, subsidized loans and rescheduled debt, the majority of Russian people find themselves worse off economically. The privatization drive that was supposed to reap the fruits of the free market instead helped to create a system of tycoon capitalism run for the benefit of a corrupt political oligarchy that has appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars of Western aid and plundered Russia’s wealth. — The Harvard Boys Do Russia, The Nation, May 1998”

In other words, it was the US who created the “Oligarchs” and crony capitalism system that it now decries! It was common knowledge that Clinton Administration allies rigged the 1996 election, ensuring that Boris Yeltsin would win over the communist candidate Zyuganov. The history of Yeltsin and his evolution from patriot to puppet is a short and sad one. The rise of Vladimir Putin in that environment (and the US role in his ascendance) is worthy of a separate post. But the epic corruption and looting of that time frame, from 1992 to 2001 or so, sets the stage for what has followed. By some recent estimates (such as in Tikhomirov’s “The Political Economy of Post-Soviet Russia”), at least hundreds of Billions, perhaps even trillions of dollars were looted from Russia during that time frame.

It’s hard to overstate the resentment against the West over this. Russians see how the US treated Germany and Japan after World War II, and compare that with “aid” and “reforms” inflicted on them after the US “won” the cold war, see what was done in the looting of their country and the lawlessness that resulted, and are justifiably angry at the west, especially the US. Putin has been, and remains, popular in large part because he has brought order back to the country, and has put a stop to the worst of the looting and corruption. He is extremely intelligent, and a Russian patriot with a keen sense of history. The comic-book depictions in the US media are simply not helpful in trying to understand the situation. That is not to defend him (my thoughts on the Russian President are complex), I’m just trying to point out that from the perspective of the average Russian who survived the 1990’s, Putin rescued them from the chaos. He put a stop to the worst of the looting, and restored order within the country. But in doing so, he also cut off a lot of the massive cash and resource flows out of Russia and into the west, especially into the coffers of US vulture capitalists. And that pissed off a lot of people in the west and their partners in Russia who were making money off of it. Again, this is just a summary; the implicit Putin “deal” with the remaining Oligarchs is complex and has created ongoing corruption problems, but the essence is that it’s ok to make obscene amounts of money as long as you don’t harm Russian National Security, and don’t create a political challenge. One could probably find similar (if more subtle) “deals” in the US, but that’s another post …

By the mid-2000’s, the fact that Russia was more in control of its vast resources, and the rise of oil prices that boosted its economy, was a major financial blow to the well-connected looters. In some ways Ukraine is a key, especially when it comes to energy. This is also a topic worthy of its own post (or book for that matter). In overly simple terms, the bottom line is the gas pipelines from fields in southern Russian and as far away as Kazakhstan are routed through Ukraine. Disrupting Ukrainian-Russian relations has the effect of hurting Russia economically. Russia is working to bypass Ukraine – which directly hurts a number of US interests, such as the Biden family, who are involved with Ukrainian energy companies. So fostering a revolution/coup in Ukraine was seen as a “win/win” by many in the US establishment: reducing Russian power and influence while boosting the profits of associates. It also explains some of the underlying reasons for the recent turmoil in Kazakhstan. In both cases, legitimate underlying popular concerns have been exploited in order to install leaders hostile to Russia and friendly to the US – even if they are not better (and in the case of Ukraine, clearly worse) than those there to begin with. And in both cases, the key are what are often called Oligarchs – those who ended up in control of the immense wealth trapped in the former Soviet Union.

While much is made in the US media about Russian or Ukrainian “Oligarchs,” and their offshore accounts and corruption, the thing left unsaid is that while some in the FSU did become “tycoons,” “oligarchs,” or “legitimate businessmen,” an awful lot of that money ended up in the hands of western financial institutions (who, were they in other countries, would likely be called oligarchs …). And that has distorted our economic and political systems.

The money that ended up in the system quickly found its way into the US political process. Thus, scratch the surface, you will find Russian or Ukrainian money behind many major US politicians. Now, I would be surprised if the vast majority are even dimly aware of that fact, any more than they are of Chinese money and influence within the US. But some, such as Donald Trump, the Clintons, and the Bidens, key congressional leaders such as Adam Schiff, and others, have had direct, active dealings with “legitimate businessmen” (aka Oligarchs, or Mafia, if you are running an attack ad) from the FSU, or via intermediaries like US companies that benefit from those relationships, especially in the influential energy and defense sectors. And it is hard to escape the conclusion that all of the above used their political offices to profit their allies (which is corrupt, but probably legal) or themselves and their families (which is corrupt, but maybe illegal). People like Bill Browder, who is running around singing the martyrdom of Sergi Magnitsky, attacking Putin, pushing sanctions, etc., made billions of dollars from the resources of the FSU – money that ultimately found its way in to various political campaigns. When the Putin administration cracked down on that form of corruption, it reduced a significant flow of funds into the western capital markets.

Now, perhaps, you can see why Putin and Russia is so hated by US leaders of both political stripes, and why Russia and Ukraine have become so central to US Politics. Like most things, it’s all about money and control of resources.

In my not-so-humble-opinion, I agree with Vladimir Putin when he said “Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster (catastrophe) of the century. ” This misunderstood comment wasn’t a lament about the fall of communism, but over how the Russian people were treated, and the country looted. It’s sad; Russia should be a natural ally of the US and stabilizing force in the world, far more so than other countries with whom we have aligned (like Saudi Arabia). But instead of acting as we did after WW II with Germany and Japan, and work to build strong economies and democratic institutions in the FSU, the US acted opportunistically and with outright malice.

Dr. Kendrick today on Pfizer.

Seems consistent with Nate Hagen’s self-organizing superorganism description of civilization. Nobody’s driving the bus to grow at any cost but that’s what it looks like.

Someone once said to me that I really must despise the pharmaceutical industry. There are certainly times when this is true, and my anger with them is sharp … and hot.

But yet, and yet, I know many people who work in the industry, and they all seem nice, concerned about the world, caring. Trying to do good. The industry itself has also produced some great innovations and medications. Without which the world would be a much scarier and more unpleasant place.

In truth, I find the industry is a bit like capitalism. Both fantastic and dreadful. Which is a bit like humanity itself. Both fantastic and dreadful. Capable of the most amazing things, yet the darker side can be very dark indeed. Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde.

To be frank, my personal problems with the pharmaceutical industry have mainly centred around cholesterol lowering. Various companies have made billions, nay tens of billions, nay hundreds of billions, pushing LDL-Cholesterol reduction with all their might.

However, I have oft sat with my head in my hands in despair at such nonsense. Pfizer with Lipitor (atorvastatin) pushed the hardest and made the most … and horribly distorted the entire world of cardiovascular disease research in so doing.

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2022/03/21/pfizer-and-me-best-buddies/

Nate Hagens today on nuclear war.

An important dialogue with Chuck Watson on:

1) Why the U.S. public is naïve about what nuclear war means
2) The mechanics on how nuclear war with Russia could actually happen
3) How bad would nuclear war short and long term effects be?

Links discussed in our conversation:

Pew Survey showing 35% of Americans willing to risk nuclear war
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

Proud Prophet 1983 nuclear risk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Prophet#Outcome_of_Proud_Prophet

Devastating effects of Nuclear War
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/

Go to https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/04-chuckwatson
to hear the prior podcast with Chuck Watson “From MAD to NUTS: Risk, Nukes, & Climate Change”, Chuck’s bio, and related show notes.

Excellent essay on the risk of nuclear war and our leaders and citizens that increase the risk by denying it.

https://blogenkiops.wordpress.com/2022/03/17/flirting-with-armageddon-is-ukraine-leading-to-nuclear-war/

Shortly after becoming President, the Reagan Administration conducted a highly classified exercise that has only recently become somewhat public. Known as “Proud Prophet 1983,” it had a profound impact on President Reagan and his team. What this war game discovered was that every scenario attempting to limit a nuclear conflict ended up in a general, strategic exchange at some point. In other words, tactical use led to limited use and from there a general nuclear war ensued. It so disturbed the administration that they changed their public rhetoric around the confrontation with the Soviet Union, and ultimately help lead to the INF treaty and a stable end to the Cold War. You can read more about “Proud Prophet” and its impact here on Wikipedia. It’s a fascinating story, one that is even today not well known or told in its entirety. The point here is that it is hubris to expect we can prevent a tactical nuclear exchange from escalating into a general exchange.