My Certainties and Uncertainties

I’m certain peak debt will result in a financial crisis soon.

I’m certain peak oil will send us back to at best a medieval life style.

I’m certain we’ll experience 2 degrees of warming no matter what we do.

I’m certain 2 degrees of warming will be really really bad.

I’m certain we cannot make climate change less bad without shrinking the economy.

I’m certain we won’t voluntarily shrink the economy.

I’m not certain that dramatically reducing CO2 emissions, regardless if voluntary or forced, will stabilize things at a new survivable level and avoid extinction.

A lot of smart people that I respect think we have already triggered irreversible self-reinforcing feedback loops and it’s too late to stop catastrophic climate change.

It sure would be nice to see more people acting to prove these people wrong.

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