By Louis Arnoux: Twilight of the Oil Age: Out of Gas by 2030

The easy oil is gone. The oil that remains is hard and getting exponentially harder to find and extract, and to make a profit doing so. Each year it takes more energy to produce the same amount of energy meaning each year there is less energy left over for society. This is why people who think we have an energy glut are wrong.

Think of a coyote forced, because rabbits are becoming faster, to burn 2 rabbits worth of energy to catch 1 rabbit. Even though there are plenty of rabbits, the coyote is in serious trouble. The coyote could switch his diet to mice (solar & wind energy) but then he’d have to burn 3 mice of energy to catch 1 mouse. The coyote is able to lead a fairly normal life for a while because he burns fat (debt) that he built up in previous good years. The coyote knows it could make do with less food if it quit fighting, played slower games, and had fewer pups, but prefers not to change its lifestyle. Over time, the coyote becomes weak and sick, and then decides to change, but he no longer has the strength to catch any food.

This analysis by Louis Arnoux predicts we have between 6 and 13 years before society is out of gas.

This means that some time between 2022 and 2030, your gas stations and airports will be closed, and the global economy will be on its way to a complete collapse.

I’ve been following this issue for years and I think his prediction is in the ballpark.

I should point out that this oil centric perspective does not consider the current debt/growth instabilities of the economy. People studying that piece predict an economic collapse sooner than 2022. Nor a climate change centric view which suggests we have at best until the end of this century.

Let that sink in for a moment and then you might begin to understand why I am so fascinated by our inherited denial of reality. This information is available for anyone that cares to look, including the news media. No one looks.

Arnoux concludes the interview by pitching an alternate energy product idea he is trying to raise funds to develop. No information is disclosed on the technology but I did some searching to get the gist of it. It’s an interesting idea but has 0% chance of heading off the problem his research on oil depletion predicts.

His behavior is consistent with other researchers working on collapse related topics. For example, almost every climate scientist has a favorite scheme they think will save us whether it’s BECCS, or geoengineering, or nuclear energy. Most people would be unable to function in these roles unless they had some hope for the future. That’s our inherited optimism bias, the inverse twin of denial, at work.

Here is an audio interview with the author.

Here is the paper behind the interview:
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3

Hat tip to Alice Friedemann.