By Neil Halloran: A Skeptical Look at Climate Science

I haven’t had time to write a new essay, and I wanted a new post so newcomers don’t assume un-Denial.com has shifted its focus to Covid, which is a confusing space populated by crazy people assigning complex global conspiracies to a bunch of incompetent and sometimes corrupt leaders.

Thank you to reader Frank White for providing a good reason for a quick post with a new video by Neil Halloran on climate change.

It’s my first exposure to Halloran and I’m really impressed. He targets people that are skeptical of climate change and does an amazing job of leading them to conclude we are in serious trouble and must act.

I left this comment on his YouTube channel:

Brilliant content and production! This is best video I’ve seen for persuading climate change skeptics that we are in serious trouble. Thank you.

Your next step should be to address the human genetic tendency to deny unpleasant realities.

https://un-denial.com/denial-2/theory-video/

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167 Comments

scarr0w
scarr0w
July 18, 2021 6:16 am

Might want to read this.

https://grftr.news/why-was-a-major-study-on-ivermectin-for-covid-19-just-retracted/
and this:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns

The truth is out there, but forces have so warped the reality field that we won’t recognize it when we see it.

gwb
gwb
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 13, 2021 9:09 pm

There goes Bill, barking up the unicorn tree again. I wonder what Melinda thinks of all this innovation stuff.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  gwb
July 14, 2021 1:00 am

No hopium 😉 – just delusion and denial in service 0f social standing (as James (Megacancer’s back!!) said – humans evolved for 3 primary things, social standing, consumption and reproduction). Gates keeps going after the social standing thing. Wonder if it’s because of the divorce “problems”?
AJ

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 11, 2021 2:44 pm

Sorry,
I was a little unimpressed with Albert Bates screed today. Sure pet ownership is utilizing resources wastefully and that contributes to global warming . . . but it is small potatoes compared to the global warming that is driven by transportation (planes, train and automobiles), a high fat, meat centered diet (that’s us 1st world!), and all the concrete and infrastructure for 8 billion (but probably most of it is for the top 10% economically). Once economic collapse occurs there will be far few “pets”. I went to China 35 years ago to my wife’s ancestral village. Never saw a cat, the only dogs were for eating, and NEVER saw an obese person. China probably has an advantage on us in that they can probably go back more easily to an agrarian lifestyle (if that’s even going to be possible??) than anybody in the U.S./Canada/Western Europe. We need fewer people (with fewer people there will be fewer pets too).
AJ

moniquemilne
Reply to  AJ
July 13, 2021 1:08 pm

I would completely agree with this socially/culturally, but resource wise they are still in trouble. China has destroyed approx. one third of their arable land to mining (especially for rare earth mining for things like EVs and solar panels). They are one of the few countries willing to get these minerals. They have also lost a lot of top soil in the last few decades due to erosion, flooding, and the gobi dessert expansion. And the population is bigger than ever.

gwb
gwb
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 13, 2021 2:40 pm

Albert Bates is a long-time resident of The Farm (that’s what it’s called…) in Summertown, Tennessee. The Farm was founded by Stephen Gaskin, who with his wife, Ina May Gaskin (founder of the modern midwifery movement), led a group of hippies from the San Francisco Bay area to Tennessee in the 1970s. Albert was in Mexico when Covid hit, and has been stuck there for the last year and a half. The Farm went through growing pains in the 1980s, but found new life in the sustainable-living Global Ecovillages movement. My wife briefly hung out with the Gaskin crowd before they left the S.F. Bay area. The Farm has a thing against pets – dogs and cats – regarding them as part of the unsustainable Western lifestyle. They have a point – but there are plenty of other things to be more worried about.

gwb
gwb
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 13, 2021 3:08 pm

The Farm has a web site, and a detailed Wikipedia entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Farm_(Tennessee). Albert is even mentioned as one of the key people.

Shawn
Shawn
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 11, 2021 5:59 am

Seems to me that for the longest time, Mac10 has been often right detecting symptoms of the economic illness, but wrong in the final diagnosis of the disease. His economic model was a traditional one, and assumed – using all his stock and money charts – that there would at some point be reversions to historical means (or below), and the normal business cycle reckonings of recession or depression.

I have made this same mistake in assuming we might go through one last period of standard business and equity market cycles. Time will tell, but if Limits to Growth BAU scenario is the roughly correct scenario, if Dr. Morgan’s SEEDS model is directionally correct, if environmental and climate models are roughly correct, we are at the end of economic growth as measured by energy and non-energy natural resource flows through the economy. We are also at a point where the waste products of any additional economic activity feedbacks against material growth. (Loss of food supply due to weather pattern changes, for example.)

Therefore, as Christopher O. Clugston states in his book “Blip,” there will never be another recession (or a depression) as conventionally understood. We are nearing the end of the economic system that began circa 1750, and organized circa 1945 into its current financial and geopolitical structure. Many of the standard assumptions about economics will NOT apply, as those assumptions were mostly devised during the period of economic growth powered by fossil fuels and in particular by oil. Correlations and analogues often used by prognosticators to predict stock market behavior are no longer relevant, if they ever really were. All those charts Mac10 puts up…

We can only speculate what the end of this system means for equity and bond markets. My guess, just a guess, is that the central governments and central banks continue to create additional liquidity as long as possible, until the current system crashes rather completely. Equity prices remain elevated, bond yields continue to reach historical lows. Until…the system crashes in some way. Material consumption, particularly in the U.S., then resets at a significantly lower level, maybe 20-30% lower. From this lower plateau, we reset financially, socially, and politically in a domestic sense, and geopolitically from a global sense.

What happens to stocks and bond in this crash? How do money, stocks and bonds function in a world of degrowth? Hard to say.

Of course, it’s a little small minded of me to worry about stocks and bonds, in a world that is burning and being diminished more every day by industrial consumption and waste. But I was born and raised during The Great Acceleration, and so I am a product of that system. My brain assumes so many things about how the world works, that are probably not true anymore. I suspect only those born on the other side of the great reset, and in the great deceleration, will be able to think differently.

moniquemilne
Reply to  Shawn
July 13, 2021 1:03 pm

In the last year or two I started wondering if global resource wars are likely in the 2030s…

Perran
Perran
July 10, 2021 12:57 am

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/newcastle/programs/drive/ivermectin-covid-19/13418066

About time. Why did it take so long to hear this from our national broadcaster? Arrrrg!

Shawn
Shawn
July 6, 2021 7:27 am

A short post on the epistemology of COVID. 😊

To function well psychologically, and socially, you must mentally simplify and accept the “truth” of many assumptions and socially accepted assertions about the nature of the world. For an individual, there is not enough time or energy to continually check or challenge these assumptions and assertions. You must accept the “truth” of things and move forward as best as one can, under the constraints imposed by place and circumstance. To continually question the truth of every foundational idea is to be frozen into paralysis by analysis or lost in an epistemological quick sand, or ostracized from ones social circles.

So we human beings, including even scientists, will repeat assertions about the world we assume to be true, but that we do not really KNOW are true. God exists, and rides a chariot across the sky every day.

Of course, over time, we do challenge our foundational ideas. Science provides a methodological framework for challenging assumptions and assertions about the nature of the world and finding “truths” that are more effective enabling us to leverage the natural world. Scientific “Knowledge” is hard won and can take years or decades to confirm.

Are the these new mRNA vaccines (for just the spike protein) safe in the short term? Long term? Truly a game changing technology? Should we attempt to mass vaccinate 8billion people? Or will mass vaccination will create evolutionary pressure for more transmissible or virulent variants or not? Should we vaccinate people who were previously infected? etc. etc.

I do not have the scientific knowledge to know the provisionally “correct” answers to all the questions about the SARs COV 2 virus and vaccinations and treatment. But I think I can see that that there are many assertions and assumptions being made about what is “true” regarding SARs COV 2, that are not backed by hard won scientific knowledge, tested over time.

These assertions are being made by scientists, public policy folks, and the mainstream media, in order to move forward under the current circumstances and social pressures. No one really KNOWs these answers. We are in the middle of a giant science (and social) experiment, gathering the data necessary to reach some tentative conclusions, in a few years from now at best. It could be a decade or more before we KNOW the “correct” answers.

And yet, there is certainly some science on which these consensus views and public policy are based. So today, what is provisionally true, and what is not, with regard to SARs Cov2? Should we mass vaccinate or not? On a personal level, should I get vaccinated even though I have had COVID? I don’t think so to both, but have to admit I am now wading in that epistemological quick sand on these issues. My friends and family have a much easier time of things, just accepting what they are told and taking action based on that. I know that the people in Peru, where the COVID death rate appears to be 9%, would take all the vaccines they could get right now.

Shawn
Shawn
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 6, 2021 11:24 am

My bad. I am churning through too much information these days. The article I saw was in the English? rag “The Sun” quoting 9% of all patients dying, not of infections (IFR). That Sun article is up on the web. It is correct that Peru is currently the leading the world right now in IFR.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53150808

O.6% is 4 times worse than the annual flu of about .15. Do they have vitamin D and Ivermectin in Peru? I don’t know. Maybe they really need more vitamin D in general if darker skin native Peruvian ancestral groups now spend far less time outdoors than there ancestors. With my British Isles ancestry, I can get all the vitamin D I need in a day with 1o minutes of summer sunshine on my face. On the other hand, I burn in the tropical sun, or at altitude.

Shawn
Shawn
Reply to  Shawn
July 9, 2021 7:01 am

Correction to above comment.
IFR in my above comment should be CFR…Case Fatality Rate. CFR is the number of people who have died, divided by the total number of people DIAGNOSED with the disease.
See how Peru is in fact now at 9%. Mortality Analyses – Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (jhu.edu) https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases/infections. Total number of cases in this calculation is usually estimated from antibodies in population blood samples, etc. This is the much lower figure of 0.6% above.
How to put all that in perspective? Don’t know. Peru has a total population of about 33Million. 193,909 have died to date.
And I should not be playing virologist on a web blog. ☹

Martin
Martin
July 6, 2021 12:57 am

The situation in Israel is developing more or less as outlined by van den Bossche: the number of cases is increasing and the vaccine is (much) less effective than it was thought. It seems that van den Bossche is not as wrong or clueless as insinuated by some/many.

madbobul
Reply to  Martin
July 6, 2021 3:44 am

Not really.

Look at deaths in last weeks – practically 0 for last 4 weeks.
Additionally 33 serious/critical cases in 2901 totak cases (1%) (what I can display now in worldometers.info).

So far this is exactly what mainstream promised – 80-90% of protection against getting sick and almost 100% against being sick morbidly.

I see nothing strange there – if we have millions of cases circulating around the world (as acive cases), you can expect that 10-20% of that get sick even after being vaccinated.

Perran
Perran
July 3, 2021 5:43 am

I have just read that YouTube has demonetised Brett Weinstein’s account. I find this deeply disturbing. I’m going to have to give some serious thought into how I interact with YouTube in the future.

Perrran
Perrran
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 6, 2021 3:12 am

I think Bossche might need to think about moving to Odysee. 😉

madbobul
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2021 12:05 am

I have impression that things will happen quickly now…
Maybe not within weeks, but when people learn that “bright green future” is not there (and I guess it will be within 2-3 years maximum), the crumble spiral will be faster and faster…

Ken Barrows
Ken Barrows
Reply to  madbobul
July 1, 2021 6:58 am

It’s the big question. I have no idea, but I do say that interest rates will never rise significantly (above2% on the 10 year UST for more than six months) before collapse. The authorities will frantically pull demand forward as long as possible. It’s amazing to see. It’s the one prediction in which I have a lot of confidence.

Shawn
Shawn
Reply to  Ken Barrows
July 1, 2021 11:05 am

Short thoughts on what collapse looks like financially?

Will it first be multiple countries on the periphery of this current global system falling financially or politically (food shortages, food prices as possible triggers), as the U.S. continues to “print” money to its advantage and the disadvantage of others? Or will the core of this current system, the U.S.A., suddenly reset downward to a much lower level of consumption and buying power? Can the Federal Reserve’s sustain it bond buying indefinitely? Maybe the test comes with the next geopolitical grey or black swan.

U.S. corporate earnings still look good, but maybe it is shortages of raw materials or much higher prices for those materials that start to eat into those profits and decrease consumer consumption levels, especially for discretionary items. A willingness to believe a materially prosperous future driven by technology still seems to be there, if frayed a bit by increasing social disorder/dis-union and increasing bad environmental news. Most people have their heads in the sand, or hands over there ears/eyes, to avoid thinking about the implications of those issues. There is no other alternative than continued belief in the existing system.

Behind all this discussion of possible outcomes of course is the invisible hand of energy supply and relentless depletion, and especially oil production. I think we are still down ~7mbpd global oil production from the November 2018 high, and if global GDP is tightly correlated, so real global GDP is down some commensurate amount. From memory the U.S. production today is something like 11mbpd down from 14mbpd. Maybe the globe and the U.S. could go back up to pre-COVID levels? But…

Background depletion on global oil fields in production is 3-6mbpd per year, so production activity is running on a faster and faster treadmill. Apparently, OPEC has quite a bit of surplus capacity still, but from two reports I saw that slack is gone in a year or two.

In any case, it seems like a bumpy ride from here on out in the best of economic cases. Supply chain issues from COVID will take several years to mend even if we had all the energy we needed. Then true oil shortages arrive. (Maybe they are there now, just masked by COVID. Environmental wastes including CO2 are now beginning to really impact food supply.

Seems like there is no “out” to a normal economy ever. Maybe there will be brief periods of respite, but the Federal Reserve will be forced to continue buy bonds until it cannot any longer.

Perran
Perran
June 29, 2021 5:28 pm

Your part of the world is even making news down under. I hope your well.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/canada-us-heatwave-heads-into-uncharted-territory/100252678

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2021 11:42 am

“A picture is worth a thousand words” LOL. Not anymore. Not that I don’t accept the above pic as real, but fact is, today you can’t always unconditionally trust what you see in a picture or video. Or hear in a recording. Not with Photoshop , video editing, deep fakes and others forms of techno sorcery.

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2021 4:27 pm

“Rapid economic simplification” Huh? Come again? You aint saying I have to give up my Starbucks Triple, Venti, Half Sweet, Non-Fat, Caramel Macchiato? Hot showers? Sushi takeout? No way man. The American way of life is non-negotiable.