By Tim Clarke: The Demise of the Global Oil Industry: Best Case 2022

This analysis concludes that the oil industry will collapse by 2022.

The global economy and food system we depend on to survive will collapse a short time after the oil industry fails.

If some monkey somewhere makes a mistake collapse could occur sooner.

It’s a good thing monkeys rarely make mistakes.

Think about this for a moment. We are at best 10 years from collapse and it’s not even mentioned as an election issue.

Our inherited denial of reality is amazing!


Think of the Global Economy as the Titanic

The Captain and the owners (politicians, economists, corporate leaders) were warned many times (Limits to Growth 1973, Peak Oil, etc) that the course chosen (endless growth) would take the ship into dangerous waters (end of economic growth), but the stakes were high; reputations and money were at stake (corporate profits, political power); so – carry on regardless – full-steam ahead. The Titanic has now collided with the iceberg and is mortally holed; but still it carries on steaming with all the lights on. People on the deck (us) are still partying (taking on debt at fantastic rates) unaware of what is going on below decks; but water (thermodynamic depletion of oil energy, exponential unsustainable debt) is coming in fast.

The pumps (the real economy) are not keeping up (all indications of global trade are in decline) and the Titanic is sinking (exponential debt is overwhelming the global financial system). The pumps need energy (Oil: which powers 97% of transport, extraction and production of commodities including other energy sources, food etc), but this energy is depleting fast (EROI) and within a short time there will not be enough affordable energy for the pumps, which will slow, and water (debt) will pour rapidly in to flood the ship (financial contagion, derivatives exploding, banks collapsing). The Titanic (Global Economy), deemed unsinkable IS SINKING – fast.

We will not be aware of this until the cold water laps at our feet and the lights go out. Some people (BW Hill, Dr Arnoux, Richard Heinberg, and many others too numerous to mention) are shouting to the rest (society) to man the lifeboats (prepare for a systemic shock to the oil/energy/financial system) while there is still time. Who will listen?

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