Cause for Hope, Despair, or Both?

Here is a new video by Nick Breeze titled “1.5ºC: A New Boundary for Global Heating”.

At 3:30 Kevin Anderson, one of the climate scientists I respect, says the developed world must stop using fossil fuels by 2030-2035.


Gail Tverberg, the energy analyst with the best track record of predicting the future, says fossil energy production will be almost zero by 2035.

Figure 4. Estimate of future energy production by author. Historical data based on BP adjusted to IEA groupings.

Are these predictions a coincidence? Or do they have something to do with the earth’s carbon cycle and balance?

I don’t know but I suspect the dates are dependent on each other.

Maybe the answer can be found by looking at earth’s environment when fossil energy started to accumulate. Note to self: research this.

Kevin Anderson also says that in addition to stopping fossil energy use by 2035 we must draw down existing CO2. My understanding of the technologies is that this is not feasible and/or affordable. On the other hand, the decline in CO2 emissions may be faster than Anderson predicts due to the likelihood of a fast economic collapse that Anderson does not understand.

Will the inevitable collapse of civilization caused by fossil energy depletion occur in time to prevent runaway climate change?

Is this cause for hope or despair or both?

One thought on “Cause for Hope, Despair, or Both?”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s