What to Expect as We Collapse

What are we likely to experience as we collapse?

• unemployment will rise
• incomes will fall
• interest rates will rise
• stock and bond prices will fall
• real estate prices will fall
• credit availability will decline
• trade will decline and may become sporadic due to credit system problems
• fewer imported goods will be available — think about how few durable items are manufactured in Canada
• food prices will increase due to less availability of imported food and consequent higher demand for local food
• large-scale industrial food production may be disrupted due to rising interest rates and supply chain problems however governments will probably make it a priority to keep big agriculture going
• energy prices and consumption will fall as fewer consumers are able to afford it
• the upper bound on energy flow rates will decline because lower prices will not support expensive extraction like tar sands and fracking
• total economic activity will shrink in parallel with declining energy consumption
• air travel will decline or stop for all but the rich
• many cars will be abandoned as operating costs becomes unaffordable and resale value approaches zero
• roads and infrastructure will fall into disrepair
• electricity may become intermittent in some regions
• social unrest and crime will increase
• tax rates will increase, tax revenues will decline, demand for social programs will increase, and governments will be forced to choose between more social unrest now due to deflation, or more social unrest in the future due to inflation — most will chose inflation
• the severity of the pressure on governments will result in collapse or hyper-inflation for some countries, especially those will no indigenous energy or goods to trade for energy
• war between countries competing for scarce resources and/or seeking scapegoats is probable
• everyone will experience hardship but farmers without debt will probably do best

The collapse will likely occur in steps and will continue for about 100 years until all affordable fossil fuels have been extracted at which point civilization will resemble medieval life, assuming we have not gone extinct through famine, disease, or wars.

Layered on top of this economic and social chaos will be a rapidly changing and violent climate that will disrupt food production and cause economic damage. We can expect a warming impulse with unknown but likely negative consequences when aerosol particulates drop with declining industrial activity and air travel.