By David Spratt: Antarctic Tipping Points for a Multi-metre Sea Level Rise

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http://www.climatecodered.org/2017/01/antarctic-tipping-points-for-multi.html

Summary:

  • West Antarctica ice loss is now unstoppable, regardless of human CO2 emissions.
  • Expect 1-2m of sea level rise by 2100.
  • Expect 3-5m of sea level rise by 2200.
  • East Antarctica ice is also destabilizing, if this continues expect an additional 5m by 2200, and 10+m later.

I observe that sea level rise predictions worsen with each new major study. I therefore interpret these predictions as best case.

We have known about this threat for 50 years. More evidence in support of Varki’s denial theory.

Recent studies, surveyed in this report,  suggest that WAIS passed a tipping point for large-scale deglaciation decades ago.

This should not be surprising, because such an event was foreseen almost 50 years ago. In 1968, pioneer glacier researcher John Mercer predicted that the collapse of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula could herald the loss of the ice sheet. Ten years later, Mercer contended that “a major disaster — a rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica — may be in progress … within about 50 years” (“West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster”, Nature 271:321-325).

He said that warming “above a critical level would remove all ice shelves, and consequently all ice grounded below sea level, resulting in the deglaciation of most of West Antarctica”. Such disintegration, once under way, would “probably be rapid, perhaps catastrophically so”, with most of the ice sheet lost in a century. Credited with coining the phrase “the greenhouse effect” in the early 1960s, Mercer’s Antarctic prognosis was widely ignored and disparaged at the time. Now in seems uncannily prescient.

The author warns that reality may worsen as scientific understanding improves.

The general view amongst scientists I have communicated with is to expect a sea-level rise this century of at least 1 metre, and perhaps in excess of 2 metres in light of the work surveyed above.  Scientists have found the business of putting a true upper limit on how much ice could melt — and how quickly — is a difficult one.

Amongst a myriad of devastating global impacts, a 1-metre sea-level rise would inundate up to 20% of the land area of Bangladesh and displace 30 million people, wipe out 40-50% of the Mekong Delta, flood one-fourth of the Nile Delta, and depopulate some coral atoll small states.

Meanwhile, the majority of citizens around the world deny this issue exists and do not discuss, let alone act, on possible changes to their lifestyles.

And Obama sets an example by taking his second long distance vacation in as many months.

By NOAA/NASA: Annual Report: 2016 was 3rd Successive Record-Warm Year

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https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/noaa-nasa_global_analysis-2016.pdf

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/18/2016-hottest-year-ever-recorded-and-scientists-say-human-activity-to-blame

2016 was the hottest year on record, setting a new high for the third year in a row, with scientists firmly putting the blame on human activities that drive climate change.

Direct temperature measurements stretch back to 1880, but scientific research indicates the world was last this warm about 115,000 years ago and that the planet has not experienced such high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for 4m years.

Arctic ice melt is ‘already affecting weather patterns where you live right now’.

In 2016, global warming delivered scorching temperatures around the world. The resulting extreme weather means the impacts of climate change on people are coming sooner and with more ferocity than expected, according to scientists.

The natural El Niño climate phenomenon, which helped ramp up temperatures to “shocking” levels in early 2016, has now waned, but carbon emissions were the major factor and will continue to drive rising heat.

Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said: “El Niño was a factor this year, but both 2015 and 2016 would have been records even without it.” He said about 90% of the warming signal in 2016 was due to rising greenhouse gas emissions. He expects 2017 to be another extremely hot year.

The new data shows the Earth has now risen about 1.1C above the levels seen before the industrial revolution, when large-scale fossil fuel burning began. This brings it perilously close to the 1.5C target included as an aim of the global climate agreement signed in Paris in December 2015.

Noaa also found Arctic sea ice fell to its lowest annual average extent on record and Antarctic sea ice to the second smallest extent on record. The warming in the Arctic in 2016 was “astounding”, Schmidt said.

How many more years of records before scientists break through their inherited denial and admit we are spinning out of control?

By Louis Arnoux: Twilight of the Oil Age: Out of Gas by 2030

The easy oil is gone. The oil that remains is hard and getting exponentially harder to find and extract, and to make a profit doing so. Each year it takes more energy to produce the same amount of energy meaning each year there is less energy left over for society. This is why people who think we have an energy glut are wrong.

Think of a coyote forced, because rabbits are becoming faster, to burn 2 rabbits worth of energy to catch 1 rabbit. Even though there are plenty of rabbits, the coyote is in serious trouble. The coyote could switch his diet to mice (solar & wind energy) but then he’d have to burn 3 mice of energy to catch 1 mouse. The coyote is able to lead a fairly normal life for a while because he burns fat (debt) that he built up in previous good years. The coyote knows it could make do with less food if it quit fighting, played slower games, and had fewer pups, but prefers not to change its lifestyle. Over time, the coyote becomes weak and sick, and then decides to change, but he no longer has the strength to catch any food.

This analysis by Louis Arnoux predicts we have between 6 and 13 years before society is out of gas.

This means that some time between 2022 and 2030, your gas stations and airports will be closed, and the global economy will be on its way to a complete collapse.

I’ve been following this issue for years and I think his prediction is in the ballpark.

I should point out that this oil centric perspective does not consider the current debt/growth instabilities of the economy. People studying that piece predict an economic collapse sooner than 2022. Nor a climate change centric view which suggests we have at best until the end of this century.

Let that sink in for a moment and then you might begin to understand why I am so fascinated by our inherited denial of reality. This information is available for anyone that cares to look, including the news media. No one looks.

Arnoux concludes the interview by pitching an alternate energy product idea he is trying to raise funds to develop. No information is disclosed on the technology but I did some searching to get the gist of it. It’s an interesting idea but has 0% chance of heading off the problem his research on oil depletion predicts.

His behavior is consistent with other researchers working on collapse related topics. For example, almost every climate scientist has a favorite scheme they think will save us whether it’s BECCS, or geoengineering, or nuclear energy. Most people would be unable to function in these roles unless they had some hope for the future. That’s our inherited optimism bias, the inverse twin of denial, at work.

Here is an audio interview with the author.

Here is the paper behind the interview:
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3

Hat tip to Alice Friedemann.

By Alex Smith: Radio Ecoshock interview with Ajit Varki

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I am a fan of Ajit Varki and his revolutionary theory that explains the singular emergence of a species with an extended theory of mind, the uniqueness of humans, as well as human optimism bias and denial of reality.

I consider Varki’s theory to be of similar importance to Darwin’s theory.

Radio Ecoshock is the best (and maybe only) weekly podcast that interviews experts on climate change and related issues. I suggested to the host, Alex Smith, that he interview Ajit Varki because I think it is important that we try to awaken our society from its deep state of denial on many important issues.

I am very pleased to report that Alex Smith interviewed Ajit Varki this week.

Congratulations and thanks to both Alex Smith and Ajit Varki for a fabulous interview that is even better than I had hoped for.

Alex Smith said to me:

“The man’s a genius. In addition to being one of America’s top medical researchers, he’s totally aware of the climate threat.”

As of this writing, I am the only amateur enthusiast of Varki’s theory on the planet that I am aware of. I’m hoping this interview might locate a few companions.

Here is the interview with Ajit Varki and an excellent essay by Alex Smith introducing it:

http://www.ecoshock.org/2017/01/climate-denial-is-human.html

Darwin vs. Varki

Darwin
– explains the creation of life by evolution
– redefines God from creator of life to creator of consciousness

Varki
– builds on Darwin’s theory to explain the singular emergence of an intelligent social species with an extended theory of mind
– explains the uniqueness of humans
– explains the success of humans
– explains human belief in life after death
– explains human optimism bias, and denial of overshoot and other unpleasant realities
– suggests similar or higher intelligence is rare and fleeting in the universe
– redefines God from creator of consciousness to genetic mutation

You know you are in trouble when…

Examples of denial are both profound and unacknowledged.

The short-term solution to our problems is the long-term cause of our problems: economic growth

The long-term solution to our problems is the short-term cause of our problems: reduced consumption

All political parties in all countries and almost all citizens, including the few citizens that understand our predicament, reject our best course of action: austerity

Most citizens have no idea how fortunate they are to be alive at this point in history: A Guide to Being Human in the 21st Century

The only problems society does not acknowledge, or discuss, or act on, are the only problems that matter: species extinction, limits to growth, debt, peak oil, overshoot, resource depletion, climate change, sea level rise, fisheries collapse & ocean acidification, nitrogen imbalance & tree decline 

There is evidence that feedback loops are taking over and causing some problems to go exponential: climate change, CO2 emissions, ice loss, sea level rise, debt

The previous year’s worst case predictions are tending to become this year’s most likely prediction: sea level rise

Actions that improve the long-term worsen the short-term: air pollution masks 0.5C of warming, austerity and debt reduction, renewable energy, population reduction 

The only possible permanent solution is rejected by the belief systems of 90+% of citizens: population reduction

The only possible permanent solution is too slow to avoid the worst problems: population reduction laws

Countries fortunate to have a low birth rate often cancel their good fortune with immigration: Canada

Citizens have wildly different beliefs about our predicament: there is no problem; there is a problem but it’s not caused by humans; I don’t want to think about it; technology will save us; it’s in the hands of God; I’ve already done enough; someone else needs to do something first; my actions won’t make a difference; someone else will consume whatever I give up; it’s too late to do anything

Despite wildly different beliefs about our predicament, there is one thing that almost everyone agrees on: I don’t want to change my behavior

The few people who understand the severity of our problems do not set good examples in their personal lives: leaders, climate scientists, environmentalists

The quality of our leaders is declining because those people with high intelligence, wisdom, and integrity do not want to be in charge of our predicament, and because citizens are feeling the impact of overshoot, do not understand what is going on, and are angry: Trump and Clinton

The leader of the free world denies science and issues daily, jaw-dropping, cringe-inducing tweets: Trump

The one world leader that did understand the problem and spoke out was rejected by the citizens and no longer speaks out: Jimmy Carter

We do not acknowledge that the world’s economic problems began with the peaking of a key non-renewable resource: conventional oil

Low energy prices have led citizens to believe we have a glut of fossil energy when in fact: all types of energy have peaked

Citizens believe the exact opposite of reality: technology creates wealth and energy rather than energy creates wealth and technology

Every country has similar economic problems and not one leader anywhere in the world connects the dots and publicly acknowledges the root cause, even after they leave office: energy extraction cost + debt

We do not discuss or act on economic history research that shows countries always get into serious trouble when they permit an important ratio to exceed a threshold we long passed: debt to GDP

Bankers, the creators of money, do not understand the one thing that creators of money should understand: thermodynamics of wealth

The professionals with the most influence on public policy use models that violate the most trusted laws of physics: economists

The scientific theory that explains the relationship between the economy, energy, and climate is ignored by everyone that should understand it: Tim Garrett

The people who deserve the most respect and admiration get the least: scientists

The people who deserve the least respect and admiration get the most: celebrities

All types of non-fossil energy do not provide a substitute for the only energy we can’t live without: diesel for trucks, trains, ships, tractors, and combines, and mining machines; plus natural gas for fertilizer

People who think the shale revolution will make America prosperous and energy independent ignore one thing: facts

Intelligent people who understand the climate change threat, like James Hansen and Bill Gates, and who want business as usual to continue, know that nuclear energy is the only option: peak uranium

If climate deniers continue to win elections and try to maintain the existing electric grid they’ll find that strategy may not work for long: peak coal

Citizens most vulnerable to a fragile global supply chain with only a few days of inventory experience the strongest illusion of abundance and security: inhabitants of rich cities

Most citizens are not even vaguely aware of the invention that enabled their existence and created about 50% of the nitrogen in their bodies: Haber-Bosch conversion of natural gas to fertilizer

Well meaning environmentalists demand that we stop subsidizing fossil energy companies without understanding the source of all that they cherish in modern civilization: fossil energy

Well meaning environmentalists demand that we stop subsidizing fossil energy companies without realizing that many fossil energy companies are going bankrupt: ExxonMobil

A solution frequently advocated makes things worse by accelerating growth and decreasing system resilience: efficiency

The best solution for removing CO2 from the atmosphere is being harmed by the same activity that creates CO2: planting more trees which are then injured or killed by ground level ozone

All climate science models that do not predict disaster now depend on an unproven technology that we probably can’t afford and other species definitely can’t afford: BECCS (bio-energy with carbon capture and storage)

We have not acted to prevent a predictable and very dangerous side effect of trying to maintain business-as-usual with low interest rates: increasing wealth gap

We still enjoy historically vast surplus wealth that could be deployed to improve our future lives but we are squandering it: military, airports, highways, new cars, high rises, etc.

Earth with its diverse complex life and a highly intelligent species is extraordinarily rare, precious, and worth fighting to protect, yet we dream of other barren homes: colonizing Mars

The tool that could be used to unite citizens in common purpose and useful action is instead being used to create tribes that reinforce preexisting beliefs: internet

Many people are hurting and lashing out in anger because they do not understand the cause of their pain: Brexit, Trump, Syria, Venezuela, etc.

The few sources of information that understand and communicate the truth are under threat: fake news

Few people study or heed the best predictor of the future: history

None of our schools teach skills useful and relevant to our future: growing food and other forms of lower complexity life skills

The thing that enabled the evolution of our high intelligence and its ability to understand and act on problems is the same thing that causes our problems and prevents us from acting on them: denial of reality

The theory that best explains our existence and our self-destructive behavior is ignored by everyone, including those people seeking to understand our problems: Varki and Brower’s denial of reality theory

Readers are encouraged to submit additions to the list.

By Nafeez Ahmed: Brace for the Financial Crash of 2018

Good news!

Someone thinks we have another year.

And if this prediction comes true, CO2 emissions will fall.

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brace-for-the-financial-crash-of-2018-b2f81f85686b#.1qn4wrwxa

80% of the world’s oil has already peaked, and the resulting oil crunch will flatten the economy.

A report by HSBC shows that contrary to industry mythology, even amidst the glut of unconventional oil and gas, the vast bulk of the world’s oil production has already peaked and is now in decline; while European government scientists show that the value of energy produced by oil has declined by half within just the first 15 years of the 21st century.

“In order to avoid the [oil] price affordable by the global economy falling below the extraction cost, debt piling (borrowing from the future) becomes a necessity, yet it is a mere trick to gain some time while hoping for something positive to happen,” said Meneguzzo. “The reality is that debt, basically as a substitute for oil, does not work to produce real wealth, as apparent for example from the decline of the industry value added as a percentage of GDP.”

Today, we are all supposed to quietly believe that the economy is in ‘recovery’, when in fact it is merely transitioning through a fundamental global systemic phase-shift in which the unsustainability of prevailing industrial structures are being increasingly laid bare.