The US goal was to control Venezuela’s and Iran’s oil as leverage to force China at the March 31 Trump/Xi summit to supply rare earth minerals that are required by the US military to function.
Plan A failed.
Venezuela’s oil is not enough leverage by itself.
Iran survived the US attack and has lit a fuse on a global bomb by closing Hormuz to all traffic except friends like China.
The US needs time to regroup and has indicated the summit may be delayed.
Plan B is the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) that has been sent to the gulf and should arrive in 7-10 days.
The MEU does not have the tools to reopen Hormuz, or to invade Iran, but does have the perfect tools for seizing or destroying tankers bound for China.
Since US allies refused to help reopen Hormuz, and probably don’t have the ability even if they tried, the US has a new goal to use the MEU to block China’s oil with an offer to unblock if China asks its friend to reopen Hormuz for all traffic.
This creates a complex negotiation.
Provide rare earth minerals needed by a military that plans to attack you, plus the oil your enemies need to not collapse and will use to attack you, in exchange for the oil needed to prevent your own collapse.
None of our best overshoot intellectuals for the last 50 years figured out Hideaway’s CACTUS theory, therefore it’s probable that neither US nor Chinese planners understand CACTUS, which means they will be gaming out the complex negotiation wondering who will be the last man standing, not realizing that energy shortages will trigger a Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System (CACTUS), and the whole world may go down, permanently.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
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