Coping with Awareness

Stellarwind72 proposed we write an essay on how to remain in good mental health while being aware of our overshoot predicament.

I have assembled here ideas from thirteen un-Denial participants plus my own.

If any reader would like to add their own list of tips, please send me a message and I will update the essay with your contribution.

14-Jun-2024 Friend Jack Alpert, who has developed the only viable plan to minimize suffering and retain some of our species’ best accomplishments, has contributed to this compilation.

ABC

The insights of yours truly, on how to engage with the predicament. 

“We are survival machines – robot vehicles blindly programmed to preserve the selfish molecules known as genes.”
– Richard Dawkins

“Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
– Thucydides

Both statements are correct, philosophically one might describe them followingly. 

Natural selection:

  • “Dao; The Way” 

Maximum Power Principle:

  • “Nietzsche; The Will To Power”

How to perceive the predicament?

  • Strive for power, as an act of self-preservation.

Death is indifferent.

  • What is there to lose?

Charles

We are waiting for the barbarians while getting a free ride and think we are in charge. 

It’s time for a doomer’s jubilee.

Yes, I am happy with what’s happening in the world. Whatever the outcome. Whatever the way it unravels. (Which doesn’t mean I don’t have problems which come and go and need to be solved, up and downs, fears and obsessions probably like many.)

I so wanted to share with you the ticket out of thinker’s hell, out of humanist’s hell. It turns out to be hard. It all seems so simple now, that I don’t even remember what exactly triggered a change of state.

I could try to recount my encounter with non-duality. I could list some of the leads I followed: Ramana Maharshi, UG Krishnamurti, Swami Prajnanpad, Ramesh Balsekar, Paul Hedderman. And, how one day, the whole mental edifice crumbled. The whole indoctrination of science, layers upon layers painstakingly acquired during years of learning, repetition and practice, nothing but rumbles. Not to be replaced.

Would it be understood (comparing science to a belief system is anathema to many: sometimes the only way to notice we are wearing a pair of glasses is to try wearing another one)? Would it be of any use? Isn’t one of the points that no generalization is possible, that every one’s experience is fiercely unique.

Maybe it’s the realisation that there is a limit to our ability to predict the future, or that the worst already happened (more than once) in the past (the Shoah, Native American genocide, …), or witnessing so many experts defending tooth and nail their own version of truth, or noticing that imagination of a dreaded outcome has nothing to do with the actual experience, or going through some hardships and realising that things just go on, or that the world is 1 without 2 (it is as it is and not some imaginary else), or seeing how tough life is on most people yet they somehow manage, or that it’s always all an experience, good or bad, it’s entertaining (like I am the station in front of which trains come and go and I have no agency on which type of trains or the schedule. So I might just as well enjoy the show), or realising the shallowness of the myths that have been stacked one upon each other (by religion, by science, by the self, by the mind, …) and for which we deploy so much fervour and energy.

Maybe it’s simply the recurring small encounters with beauty, with life. Gardening does that for me, fearlessly exchanging with people to reach the depths and truth of an aspect of their mental shape too (as we are doing now), or just greedily inhaling every small details reaching my small field of consciousness.

Or, it may just be getting bored of negativity.

As much as I had wished to share this state, it seems not to be really communicable. It will dawn on you, I am sure. And some day, you will be suddenly laughing out loud in the middle of the fields. If anybody sees you then, they will think all that worrying ended up getting the best of you. 🙂

Anyway, thank you for finding and periodically bringing to our attention smart people doing original thinking on this topic of collapse. I am grateful for your clear eyesight, your ability to separate the chaff from the wheat. Especially, it has been a great support during covid.

To conclude, here are the most important ideas I want to share:

Redemption, betterment, moksha, liberation, self-realization, illumination, enlightedment, progress, self-improvement, planet rescue… As if the world could be any different than it is. As if it could be improved upon. As if we had control. As if the dynamic of life were a math problem with an optimum solution. If you meet the Buddha, kill him. I say burn them all, Fahrenheit 451 style: Buddha, Jesus, Darwin, Einstein, Malthus, the Meadows. They clutter our souls. Time for renewal. Snap out of any form of idealism, absolutely any kind of indoctrination. Now the earth was formless and empty. Go back there and start anew.

To me, it’s thinking which shapes our experience by arbitrarily slicing, labelling everything, arbitrarily picking a perimeter to focus on (identification), a start and an end, creating concepts: birth, death, progress, evolution, species, collapse, NPK (chemistry), MPP, MORT, you name it… That’s all delusional. There is no way anything can be understood. It is not meant to. And that’s fine. There is nothing to be either fearful, angry, saddened or cheerful about. It is just as it is. And that’s awe-striking.

As far as I understand, this is UG Krishnamurti, this is non-duality (not 2, which does not imply 1 either).

And then, there is all that matters, that which can’t be put in words…

el mar

el mar´s approach:

Take care!

  • Be friendly and balanced, don’t believe every bullshit.
  • Be peaceful, self-critical but don’t put up with everything.
  • “Come down”, think “small”, for species-appropriate human husbandry.
  • Buy regionally, support local producers, manufacturers and craftspeople. Eat healthy, fresh, unprocessed food
  • Start a kitchen garden. Start small.
  • Learn something crafty and practical.
  • Cooperate and share with like-minded people.
  • Listen to your inner voice – not to ideologues and pied pipers from the right and left.
  • Avoid mass consumption and mass media.
  • Inspire other people to join this movement.

Saludos

Florian

It’s pretty funny to me, I’m a “young person” (< 40 years) and I’m not following a single of Robs points.

I live in a big city (I was born here) and work in tech (which I enjoy within reason) and I can afford to only work 30h. In a slow collapse scenario I will have to trade my database knowledge for food lol but, personally, this is not the future I envision.

My own version of the future is a lot more bleak so I live my life of pleasure, sitting comfortably in my office hardly working knowing that it could end next month, year or decade. Which also has it upsides because I don’t need to worry about my retirement.

Gaia

Do you remember my post on suffering that you decided should be a guest essay (and that quite floored me to see my words the next day front and centre!)? My core outpouring then, and even more now, is the question, was it all worth it? That so few have benefited so much at the expense of so many? Even to the point of the destruction of our biosphere, endangering life systems at the macro and molecular level through our hubris in thinking we can grasp power and control far beyond our reach. In my darkest hours I feel that deepest, helpless, purging sorrow is the only true emotion we can justifiably claim; all other feelings and reactions to our existence are derivative of our denial that allows us to continue living so. It’s denial that keeps me as positive and equanimous as I seem to all around, if anything I feel an imposter as I should be more depressed and grieving for the world and humanity as a whole.
I consider this recent post a continuation of that lament on suffering and even more a personal outcry of remorse and regret that I was not as conscious of my role and responsibility in the greater good and suffering as I could have been, or if I was aware, I certainly was not courageous as I know is rightful in failing to use my one life boldly to declare justice as others have done.

As children, we naturally understand and feel injustice aggrievedly, possibly because we are otherwise helpless and dependent upon the goodness of others, but also in our naivete and innocence we trust that others know and care how we feel, and would treat us as we and they wish to be. Through a thousand thousand cuts of disappointment and breaches of trust, cog-turning assimilation into the culture and society into which we were born, it comes to pass that we throw off that banner of righteousness and justice in exchange for a yoke of resignation and complacency. We carry our burden with hardly a murmur, willingly or not, wittingly or not, so we can stake our claim of existence in this society upon which we are wholly dependent. To conform with the dominant tribe is our survival strategy, and the more complex our society becomes, it is clear that for the masses there is little choice but to continue the status quo or be cast out. We come to realize our relative individual unimportance to the system, so it is not much of a step to endorse anothers’ insignificance, especially those outside of our tribe. Then it is no matter at all to deny their right to existence, and all manner of injustices become justified. For all my complicitness of inaction, I shall bear my own guilt. It is through recognition of myself in the majority that will lead to my release of judgment for them, and if by grace I can come to some measure of forgiveness, I hope to absolve myself a little, too.

Truth to tell, at some level we know we are here because someone else is not, we have because someone else does not. My ancestors survived at the cost of another, and now I have my material life at the expense of another. There is no way else to balance this equation, however we try to reconcile it. It is all justified because we are who we are, and they are who they are–as in the developed world, complete and worthy, still deciding if the “developing” ones have a right to exist. The colour of our skin, the language we speak, the land we find ourselves, and most expediently, the exchange rate we decided upon, keeps everyone in their own respective domain and hierarchy of who shall have and not have. We call it fair trade to keep us in the West living in our high standard whilst those whose labour and resources we have stolen through our inflated dollars can only keep living in their degraded standards. Any child can see through this unfairness which we have called our globalised world. Genocide still may be abhorrent, but slavery, as long as it is at arm’s length, has its merits. I am a beneficiary of this and cannot and will not erase that stain upon my conscience. We need not wait for AI to overcome our humanity; we have already given away a greater part of that when as a species we chose to continue following the algorithms of power as a method for survival instead of allowing our still small voice of conscience to heed the golden rule. Until we embrace the earth as our village and kinship with all life, we are quite alone on this blue-green planet, spinning alone in this corner of the universe.

I contend that we all have the possibility of a Hitler as well as Mother Theresa–the only difference is quantity of intention and scope of action, but the quality is already in us. It must be so if we are a species together, the family trait of both runs deep and will out given the right circumstances. Our continued survival as a species has depended on at times dominance and exploitation, and at other times, cooperation and altruism. Daily we balance between the spectrum in all our decisions, whether consciously or not. As a species, we perhaps could never have evolved differently, but gifted with the birthright of consciousness and conscience, individually we could have chosen differently. We know it can be done because it has been done, we all have done it–have risen to the occasion of defending the defenseless, be it a rescued bird or standing for a friend against a bully. Courage in those moments is a direct line to our hearts, bypassing our brains working out what is in it for us. I daresay those are the times we felt most alive and sure of our purpose, the moments when we consider anothers’ well-being before our own. This quality of beneficence is every bit a part of our species as well, all we lack is consistency, which is the mark of mastery. Whilst some rare few may achieve instant enlightenment, the other path, however long and arduous, will also reach the goal through awareness and effort. We must be able to practice our kindness and goodness; it matters not how small the task before us as we have the quality already, it is merely the quantity we can choose to increase or withhold. We can choose kindness and rightfulness again and again, until it is no longer a choice but defines us.

Despite these physically, mentally, and emotionally draining times, I am going along as well as I can be, seizing the joy and wonder in every day as I know how precious life, and the passing time that unravels life, are. I now understand clearly why Cicero (considered a Skeptic, not a Stoic) stated that gratitude is the greatest of and the parent of all virtues. I find comfort in managing the daily tasks that so many wish they could do with as much freedom and ease as I have enjoyed all my life, and in helping others by being more generous with my time through practical action or listening ear. Giving back is the choice I am hanging onto for having the privilege of receiving so much. Knowing now as I do that our life of continued ease will be greatly foreshortened due to our own making, crystalises for me the certainty that my remaining days and choices are fast becoming last chances to consolidate what I have learned as a human being on this planet. And even more importantly, to prove to myself that my life has been an examined one and the highest version of what I can be. Whilst I cannot save humanity, I can still save the part of me that can be more grateful, kind, compassionate, accepting and forgiving. It is the only and true thing remaining for me to do, and for which my entire life was preparation.

Rob here, I’ve added to Gaia’s contribution a powerful paragraph she wrote as a comment a month ago:

The on-going genocide of the Palestinians really nailed it for me. Now we know that given the opportunity, we would act just the same way the majority of Germans did, in turning a blind eye to what we know is morally unjust and thinking we can continue with our own lives. We will watch the slaughter and deplore it, but why don’t we have the courage to upend our lives by doing something radical in effort to stop it? It’s the same for the response to Covid. It seems the most radical thing a Westerner can do (and more power to the pro-Palestine youngsters at universities who still have heart and guts) is publicly protest but why are we not all walking out of our jobs or going on hunger strikes and the like? What does it take to really take a stand, to deliberately override every instinct of survival by choosing suffering and even death (like Aaron Bushnell, who conflagrated himself) for an ideal? The drive to protect ourselves and just keep living the lives we are accustomed, especially us in the West is overwhelming–we have too much to lose and we know we cannot survive outside our system. We are workers in the hive, and we are programmed for only the hive. Knowing this, we finally come to understand that we are not free beings and never have been, but that does not mean we do not still have choice and our internal world can be closer to what we want to make it. That’s why the Stoic philosophy is particularly attractive to me; I have succumbed to relinquishing any hope of changing the outer world but I can still find meaning, purpose and joy in life by improving my inner self.

Hamish McGregor

There are no specific actions I take, to help with coping – unless being constantly negative, whining, passive aggressive and excess criticism (of everything) counts.

Hideaway

In working out where we are headed, I cope via a variety of mechanisms. We are a close family, my wife and our children, and we come from close families, so there is always the following of everyone’s progress through life as a positive to look forward to. We are financially well off, as I’ve invested well by predicting the way the world would try to head, given what I know of resources, which has allowed our children to have a much easier path. They are well aware of my findings and none of our children, in their 30’s, have chosen to have kids, so no grandchildren to worry about. They say they will just return to the farm when civilization collapses.

I have native areas of bush (forest for non Aussies) on our property that are regenerating from before we bought, 40 years ago. Taking a long walk through these areas gives a regenerative feel for the world overall. Life will go on after us, until it can’t, but will spring up somewhere else in the universe. Life is for living and I enjoy spreading the word of what’s happening in reality, so it doesn’t get me down at all. We have plenty of food, heat when necessary and great shelter that we built with our own hands. I cut wood from our bush for heating the house, mostly from storm damage, or dead/dying trees as the bush goes through it’s natural succession, so providing our own heat source in winter is also cathartic.

I get a type of internal peace knowing that there is no purpose to life, it just exists, so making the most of it with as many different experiences as possible in great company is what counts. being part of a like minded community of thinkers at un-Denial also helps with sanity as it clearly shows I’m not ‘out of my mind’ with my findings on the direction of the world, so thanks to all contributors at un-Denial and especially to Rob for hosting the site..

Jack Alpert @ https://skil.org/

I am not going to prep for the down slope for four reasons:

  1. There is no protection from the roving hoards. Both, preppers and non-preppers, will end up with nothing to eat but each other very quickly — probably in the next 50 years and most certainly in a hundred years.
  2. Running, hiding, and being the last man eating the last can of corn in the last cupboard is not what I want to work toward.
  3. I cannot drink a good glass of wine and watch the sunset without guilt.
  4. That I am old and I might make it out of here before tragedy strikes brings me no joy.

I will feel bad every day if I do not try to fix things I can see are broken.

Some fixes I do not care to work on. I am done being distracted by efforts to fix the miss perceptions and dysfunctional behaviors resulting from our limbic brain which evolved too slowly to keep up with our cognitive capacities to create civilization’s momentum.

My work focus each day:

  1. Define a viable Human Earth system in terms of behavior that controls  mass and energy flows that can exist continuously without degradation of the earth’s productive capacity.
  2. Define the collective behavior required to transition to this Human Earth system.
  3. Implement the required behavior:
  • i) Extracting bad behavior takers from the population:
    • a) Old age deaths
    • b) Starvation deaths
    • c) Deaths from violence
  • ii) Coerce the required behavior from the remaining population:
    • a) Physical enslavement
    • b) Social contract enslavement
  • iii) Create universal upgrade in cognitive processes in every living person.

Some milestones on this journey:

The existing 8 billion people living today will not be living in 2100. They will have died from:

  1. Old age
  2. Starvation
  3. Violence

The human population that exists in 2100 will be the sum of births after today. If the system that is viable under the above definitions is only 50 million that means births will have to be limited to about 500,000 a year.

If we have only natural births, not test tube babies, that will initially be only 1 birth for every 140 woman, but will increase until it reaches 2.00 in 50 years.

Implementing this will be a challenge.

At one extreme it will require immediate sterilization of 8 billion people with some mechanism for refertilization to get 500,000 annual births.

This path creates great injury and can only be selected when compared to the worse alternative of an estimated 13.4 billion people dying of starvation and conflict during the next 80 years on the present path.

The rest of the transition is equally painful and difficult to implement.

I expect that existing cultural machinery will struggle and probably fail in making a transition to the defined viable civilization. It is more likely to descend into a dark age — probably with little chance of recovery to present science and technology.

Some other more powerful transition mechanisms may be applied by groups or individuals to our predicament. Individuals may soon become powerful enough to sterilize the 8 billion. Others may become capable of culling any portion of the 8 billion.

These options may be implemented (not abiding current ethics) with much lower total lives or environments injured.

These alternative paths forward for the human experiment on earth may be selected and implemented  independent of existing organizations.

I have worked my entire adult life understanding the creation of cognitive processes that if they were universal among the 8 billion, the collected behavior to implement a viable earth system would be possible. Each individual behavior would result with the same reliability as that individual selecting to not step off the curb in front of a rushing bus.

I have made much progress but lacking a quick and universal way of inserting these cognitive abilities into a whole global population over night I imagine the individual-produced interventions of sterilization and culling to be implemented to avoid the unrecoverable dark age on our horizon.

marromai

As far as I can see, it always comes down to the same thing: oneself is powerless when it comes to the big picture, you can only make sure that you and your loved ones are doing well. That’s also what I try to do as best as I can (like the closing words from my first guest post – carpe diem).

My coping methods are:

  • I am present at work because I need the money, but I only do the minimum required. I know that our economic system is doomed, but I cannot survive without it because I am inevitably a part of it.
  • I avoid the mass media and scrutinize any news.
  • The state is not my friend. I avoid contact wherever possible. State rules and laws are interpreted as flexibly as possible to my advantage (of course only where they don’t harm other people).
  • Most people don’t know what I know or dismiss it as nonsense. I keep my knowledge to myself and don’t try to “convert” anyone.
  • Current “Science” is just another religion – I know that I know nothing. However, (old) science offers us models and techniques that explain many things well or have made them possible in the first place. I use these where it makes sense to me.
  • I am not afraid of death, because I will return to the big picture – only dying could be unpleasant…
  • We will never understand the big picture, because as long as we are alive we are a split-off part of it, and can therefore never observe it in its entirety.
  • “I hope that when the world comes to an end, I can breathe a sigh of relief because there will be so much to look forward to.” (Donnie Darko)

But nonetheless:

  • Try not to worry too much – as long as I can survive this day, the next one will also be possible. It’s like an incremental approach on living 🙂

To conclude with a quote from “A Book for No One“:

We should stop sinking into depressive moods we have created and start enjoying life in the here and now. The doomsday fantasies are due to the phase of prosperity, in which the human brain looks for new problems because our fundamental needs have already been satisfied. Even in ancient Rome, doomsday prophecies and the proclamation of new ages were booming – and yet the Romans lived relatively well for centuries without apocalyptic upheavals.

nikoB

nikoB’s farm

1993 was when I first became aware that progress (as we in the west generally think of it) was not really leading us to this consequence-free wonderful utopia in the not too distant future. The first was witnessing first hand, the clearfell logging occurring in forests across Australia. The second event that got doubts flowing in my head was my uncle casually remarking – what are we going to do when oil runs out?

Over the next decade I was a rampant greenie, studying ecology and horticulture but not really putting much of the bigger picture together. Climate change was a problem but still so far away – so fixable. That was all to change when a friend invited me to a lecture by Richard Heinberg and David Holmgren. Peak oil came and put a stop to all my illusions. The door was opened and I stepped through.

It was 2006 and I was in my mid-thirties with a young family just starting out. It wasn’t long before I was aware of the Oil Drum, Nate Hagens, Jim Kunstler, Dmitry Orlov, The Druid JM Greer, the Chris Martenson crash course and many, many other places of ideas and discussion. To say this altered my thinking on everything is a massive understatement. Priorities changed overnight and I launched myself into a personal crusade to bring the truth of the peril that awaited us to anyone who would listen.

So fast forward to today, to cut through what is really a fairly dull story with maybe a few juicy details, I basically learnt that no one gives a “solidly digested meal” about resource depletion and overshoot. No matter how many ways you approach the subject. For it became a passion to try and work out the magical key that will unlock humanity’s thinking. All it did was result in the loss of close friends and family. I was mostly just a downer to people when I used to be one of the funniest people in the room (thanks to class clown training).

So where does this leave me now nearly 20 years later of being a peak oiler and recent anti-vaxxer. Reevaluating everything I do because what I have been doing hasn’t yielded results in changing minds.

I am lucky to be blessed with a partner who shares much of the same view of overshoot and its consequences. We spend quite a substantial amount of time discussing all the issues it brings bubbling to the surface. I am also blessed in that she shares the same passion for self sufficiency living that I do and together we work our little farm in the hinterlands of the northern rivers area of New South Wales Australia.

What I am slowly coming to the realisation of, is that we must not lose our passions, humanity and connections. For too long they were side lined and sacrificed for the greater virtue of telling everyone just how it is. The loss I felt was immense but that was balanced by the anger that I felt that nobody could see that what I think is so bloody obvious and that no one cares to do anything about it.

So in order to repair broken relationships (because I miss them) I have had to change my priorities and my thinking as well I suppose, so that I don’t just naturally clash with most people. This is difficult, especially not judging people for their ignorance and self destructive behaviours. But as it turns out I have all my own ignorant self destructive behaviours.

Maybe time is short before collapse makes living a nightmare, Hideaway makes many compelling arguments that this complex system is exceedingly brittle and can only withstand so many spanners thrown into the gears. Or perhaps the druid is right and that the collapse is catabolic, step by step, some big, some small but pretty much all down hill. Either way my thinking has changed on how to deal with it, though I must say the covid saga produced a huge detour and removed many friends from my circle and I would venture to say that most are not destined to return. But now I am getting back on track to living while compartmentalising the potential horror of a potential future.

I have decided to let go of the major criticisms I have of the human condition which are beautifully spelt out here in Rob’s blog over and over again. I don’t know if any of it really matters as we are all dead in the end. It is the journey as they say that matters not the destination. If we really think about it we know that is true as the destination is a hole in the ground.

So now I look to seeking the connections I can find with people that are easy to build on and see where it leads. Time to encourage rather than discourage. Soak up the interpersonal transactions and notice when something deeper occurs. But at the same time I won’t gladly immerse myself in exchanges full of bovine discharges.

As a focus for my own passions, I am back to making music, finding the humour in most things without resorting to be overly sarcastic or caustic. Observing and appreciating absurdity is great for that. Giving love as much as I can and forgetting the anger and the hate. I won’t pretend that it is easy but it does seem to be the most beneficial path and I must remember to forgive myself if I stray from it at times.

Paqnation (aka Chris)

Surprisingly, our story was more depressing to me when I was in full Daniel Quinn sustainable/wisdom mode. The whole “where did we go wrong” thing haunts you when you know humans “can” get it right. Now that un-Denial has set me straight on some of these core issues, our story is less depressing in that respect. I do think denial is at the heart of the matter, but I bounce around on how much emphasis to put on MORT, eToM, and MPP. And I am now slowly shifting to a new state of mind where it’s all about energy constraints and you can pretty much throw everything else out the window.

Society can be full of Quinn type worldviews or full of overshoot, MORT aware citizens. It doesn’t matter. Once those sacred constraints are broken, there is no way out of the madness. And there is no way to resist using this new energy technology because if you don’t, someone else will, and you will be conquered and/or killed. By the time your civilization has enough EROEI to start understanding concepts like overshoot and sustainable vs unsustainable… it’s too late. You are now way too addicted to the comforts of this energy surplus to voluntarily decrease usage. And you’re already in massive overshoot because of all the self-induced damage to your environment (mining and domestication of plants/animals). Ditto for your worldviews too. Separation of nature along with a superior way of looking at your own species are unavoidable default worldviews that come along with busting through energy constraints. The most depressing thing for me nowadays is the realization that this kind of modern intelligence (cleverness) has no purpose in the entire universe.

I have two techniques for my sanity. One thing is trying to accept the inevitability of it all. Understanding that the best-case scenario for Mother Earth is NTHE, helps me to go with more of a “I might as well partake in the Peak before it’s all gone” mentality. But the most important technique is hanging out on this website. When I first came onto the scene of un-Denial, I was shot out of a cannon. The two years prior that I was learning about overshoot, etc., I never had a reliable outlet to ask any questions. That all changed when I got here. I cannot talk to anyone in my personal life about collapse, but now I have an online support group. The following is more of a love letter to you guys for how much you’ve given me and my appreciation for being part of this Tribal Connection.

Here are some quotes I collected from un-Denial comments that caused me think and increased my awareness:

Monk: Something that helps me a lot is when I see dumped rubbish, which happens a lot in “magical NZ”. And I just think to myself how excited I am for collapse, because spoilt brat humans don’t deserve everything that we’ve got when we can’t even do something so basic for nature as pointing rubbish in the bin.

Rob: For the last 10,000 years we broke through normal resource constraints with agriculture (bigger share of solar energy) and fossil energy (ancient solar energy) and became a destructive unsustainable species, that is smart enough to know better, but denies what it is doing.

Mike: In a climax ecosystem, the system appears to be in balance with all species living in harmony. But it’s an illusion and no species intended it that way. Quinn probably got it wrong, in that respect. (Chris here, Mike calling out Quinn like that was the beginning of my internal temper tantrum)

Gaia: So over time, the ascendancy of lighter skinned humans in the cooler climates prevailed and these were the climates where agriculture and feudal living flourished, cementing the dominance of this culture type rather than the nomadic style of earlier hunter/gatherer societies which matched well with the grassland/savannah fauna of equatorial Africa.

Rob: The probability of getting 100% of things wrong by mistake is 0%.

Monk: They dug up a lot of roman prepping gold in villas in the UK. Funny to think of them prepping all that gold and never getting to use it.

Hamish: Too many people treat dogs like fashion accessories and discard them immediately when they have health issues.

NikoB: I always think of it in terms of give and take. What did you take from this world in order to live and what did you give back?

AJ: …reinforcing my opinion that the grandchildren of the victims of genocide are now the perpetrators of genocide.

Charles: I love watching the activity in a compost bin, on the surface of a decomposing carcass, the eerie colours of mushrooms feeding off dead logs… Death doesn’t really feel like an end: there is so much activity going on, and (in good temperature and moisture conditions) recycling happens so fast one can almost witness the migration of energy.

Rob: I envy people who obtain comfort from believing there is some form of spirituality in the universe that cares about us. Unfortunately I see a flow of electrons looking for a home.

Gaia: That’s just it, Rob! I identify best with being a bunch of electrons looking for a home! …Then the electrons I borrowed can go do something else for the rest of eternity.

Stellarwind72: What if intelligence over a certain level is inherently maladaptive on long timescales, because it allows you to destroy the very ecology you depend upon.

Hamish: If I ever have to turn away people seeking help, I will offer them my thoughts and prayers – that seems to be the solution to all calamities from the shit stains in Washington DC and state capitals.

ABC: “Progress” equals to mental regress in many if not most aspects, nothing short of “wickedness”.

Florian: If you are happy with what you have or even downsize then you are, from an evolutionary perspective, a defective individual and the chance is very very high that you will be thrown on the genetic trash heap. There is this saying, To understand all is to forgive all and while it can be hard to not show emotion in this absolute cluster-fuck there is absolutely no point to attach yourself to an outcome.

Charles: Life, to me is a constant invitation (sometimes quite painful) to open up to possibilities.

Rob: I’m still fascinated by denial. I see it every day in every single person I interact with. No one speaks reality, except the few that hang out here.

AJ: The lack of humility and stating that one could make a mistake, always makes me suspicious of a person’s conclusions.

Monk: Without fossil fuels the planet would have become a frozen wasteland. It looked like earth was heading for permanent ice age because too much carbon got lock up.

Rob: I believe one of the reasons we had so much coal is that large plants were enabled by the evolutionary invention of lignin and it took quite a while for fungi to figure out how to digest lignin. Today coal would not accumulate in the same quantities.

Notabilia: Remember, none of us fossil fuel colossi have to stick around when our inherited profligate way of existence hits the ground below the cliff. That will become the one remaining “civil right”. (Chris here, this one got me focused on writing my exit strategy article)

ABC: Wisdom has no inherent value in a world of energy, and never stood a chance against unhinged violence.

NikoB: Perhaps having a good spice rack will put those cannibalism fears to rest.

Stellarwind72: Our leaders seem to think that if Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, he will invade several other countries, similar to what Hitler did after the Munich agreement.

Gaia: Maybe we can even say that MORT (denial) has been our species’ only true religion, for through it we almost became like the gods, or more poetically, it was the way in which the gods could become human.

Charles: I believe Quinn/Murphy’s story will propagate because it shows a possible way ahead for survival. It is becoming useful in this world of limits, of civilisation/technology collapse.

Hideaway: Crocodiles have existed in pretty much the same form for 200 million years, that’s long term sustainability.

Monk: Anthropologists do think pre-historic people had a lot more sex than their civilized counterparts.

Charles: I find the terms reincarnation and “life after death” misleading. They are too loaded. One should perhaps use “informational remnant through structural reorganization”.

Hamish: I’ve given up on the idea of saving people, society, knowledge, culture, wisdom. If I can help nature that will be enough.

Rob: The problem is our citizens, not our leaders.

Hideaway: Increasingly I’m thinking most major solar and wind installations are nothing more than a scam paid for by subsidies from the government, then quickly sold to whatever pension fund that wants ‘green’ credentials in their portfolio.

Stellarwind72: If MORT is true, the story of humanity will turn out to be a tragedy. The species intelligent enough to realize it is in overshoot doesn’t do much about it due to denial.

Rob: Life is not some spiritual mystery, but rather a predictable outcome of the fact that the universe abhors an energy gradient, and life is its best mechanism for degrading energy. (and) “If life is nothing but an electron looking for a place to rest, death is nothing but that electron come to rest.” (Rob here, I think that’s a paraphrased quote from Dr. Nick Lane)

Chris here. These next two get me emotional and make me think about what could’ve been (Closest to me ever having my own family was in 2003, but we both agreed on abortion. One of my biggest regrets).

ABC: I’d like to have a family, rear children and experience being a father. I know it is extremely selfish if not cruel by all definitions knowing our predicament, however I cannot shake this primal biological urge of self-interest and naïveté of having a “sense of meaning”.

CampbellS: We saw the southern lights, aurora astralis, here in the Far North of NZ. First time for me in my 53 years. Pretty spectacular and awe inspiring. Was nice to share it with my teenage kids.

And this is a nice little moment between the young, cocky Skywalker and the much wiser Obi-Wan Kenobi. They could both see the magic early on:

Paqnation: I actually think he/she is Art Berman, Simon Michaux or someone like that. I have a hard time with energy (which is why I love Sid Smith), but Hideaway is like an energy oracle.

Rob: Hideaway is better than both Berman and Michaux. Berman is deeper on oil but shallower on other energies and overshoot. Michaux has some worrying woo-woo.

One final note. While going through all my comments, I came across what is by far the most MORT thing on this entire website = My anti-pornography article. 😊

scarr0w

My journey to tranquility ( 🙂 ) is as follows:

I’ve known for as long as I have memory that I was “different”. Not exactly on the spectrum, not genius, not sociopath, but maybe a dash of each. I was in parochial school my first four years, and it was not a good fit for me. To get along, one should just fill in the answer blanks in your Baltimore Catechism workbook, not ask the nun to explain grace. Questioning the pablum we are spoon fed is not a way to be one of the gang.

Anyway, from childhood experiences, I over time built a mental outlook that more or less has evolved to be expressed best by the Niebuhr/Wygal serenity prayer. I generally kept my own council, especially when I fully realized the overshoot predicament we are in while working for a company that builds stuff for the fossil industry. I guess you could say I was “in the closet”.

Serenity, or at least equanimity is not an easy thing to maintain all the time, but I’ve gotten better over time. Raising kids, staying on the treadmill even after realizing that’s what it is, etc… can test your resolve. While I follow collapse progress and analysis at sites like Rob’s and several others, it is more to keep current, not to perseverate on (and let’s face it, being witness to this huge event in the human story is fascinating). Mostly I am grateful that I was lucky enough to be born in a location and time that will never be again.

Currently, some mental energy is on local political issues (I’m on the county board, trying to see opportunities to shift policy into more future ready states), but primarily I try to slowly make a few acres of land more in tune with what the local biome wants to be. That will be enough.

I liked a lot of what others said, especially Gaia, but since my emotion circuits were partly burnt out as a kid, I just don’t get wound up over the path out culture has chosen, or my role in it. I know others suffer and indirectly I benefit, those of us aware just have to live with a foot in both worlds, slowly reducing our complicity as best we can. Not much help for others, but that’s where I am.

Stellarwind72

Being overshoot aware constantly weighs on me. Given my young age (I was born right before the turn of the millennium), I know that the sh*t will hit the fan in my lifetime. From time to time, I feel existential dread. I know that there is a substantial risk of me dying early due to the effects of overshoot and collapse.

Sometimes just being able to talk about this issue with other people helps me with anxiety, knowing that there are other people who are aware of what is going on.

I sometimes like listening to classical music and taking hot baths to calm my nerves, but given how those are both dependent on large amounts of surplus energy (I mostly listen to classical music on YouTube), I don’t know how long I will be able to keep doing that.

Rob Mielcarski

In no particular order of importance, here are some things that have helped me remain partially sane with overshoot awareness.

Collapse Early and Avoid the Rush

There is no way to predict which of the many paths we will take (inflation, deflation, war, confiscation, theft, etc.), however we know with certainty that the destination of fossil energy depletion will be less material wealth, less food abundance, a lower energy lifestyle, and much less help from governments.

I think it is a wise strategy to voluntarily downsize your lifestyle and learn to live happily with less so that when everyone else is shocked and losing their minds due to loss of wealth and entitlements, you are already happily living the new normal.

Some things that have worked for me include:

  • Pretend you can’t buy gasoline and see how little driving you can get by with.
  • Stop flying. Find ways to vacation locally like camping.
  • Monitor your electricity consumption in real time and practice using less.
  • Practice food storage and preparation without refrigeration.
  • Practice low energy cooking like one-pot meals and pressure cooking.
  • Practice living at lower temperatures in the winter.
  • Shower when dirty, not every day.
  • Change clothes when they are dirty, not every day.
  • Stop eating out. Cook all your food from scratch.
  • Cut your own hair.
  • Maintain your vehicles yourself.
  • Practice fixing things that break.

Local Food

I think we face 5 main threat vectors and it is unclear which will strike first:

  • nuclear war (due to resource scarcity)
  • accelerating warming (due to aerosol reduction)
  • asset bubble crash (due to extreme debt and degrowth)
  • energy scarcity (due to depletion of low-cost non-renewable reserves)
  • deadly covid variant a la Bossche (due to our idiot unethical leaders)

The most important common denominator is likely to be food scarcity.

I once had a dream to buy a farm and build a doomstead. I took a small scale farming course and after about 5 years of employment as a farm laborer I learned that I lacked the money and the passion and the time to pull it off successfully. So I switched to plan B. I now assist a local farm with construction and maintenance in return for a source of local food. I still buy the majority of my calories at the grocery store but I know we can ramp up calorie production when SHTF.

Prepping

I work hard at being a wise frugal prepper which means I stock things that:

  • I like to eat and have a good shelf life so they won’t be wasted
  • are likely to become scarce first like protein, fat, and caffeine
  • are essential for good health
  • are purchased when on sale to save money

I maintain a detailed spreadsheet of consumables with quantity, cost, date of purchase, best-by date, storage location, date opened, date finished, and predicted duration the item will last. This allows me to:

  • track my consumption of each item so I can accurately predict how long each will last, and to adjust inventory levels based on my assessment of world events
  • track price inflation and to stock more of what is expected to inflate fastest
  • rotate inventory so I always eat the oldest first
  • conduct shelf life tests and record results so I know when a best-by date can extended or ignored
  • calm down – reviewing my spreadsheet reduces my stress

I have methodically gone through every durable item and service I use and asked what will I do if that item breaks and cannot be fixed or replaced, or can’t be fueled. For those items that I consider essential I have purchased a spare, or I have plan for accomplishing the same thing a different way, or I know I can do without. Here are a few examples:

  • my town water supply is not gravity fed and depends on electric pumps so I installed a hand operated pitcher pump on an old shallow well on my property
  • I can light my living area with 4 different types of energy
  • I can cook with 7 different types of energy
  • I can heat my living area with 3 different types of energy and I have practiced living with the thermostat at 15C
  • I have 4 different modes of transportation and I have some spare parts
  • I can keep my refrigerator operating, which is the main thing I care about in a power outage, for a couple weeks
  • I have spare parts to keep my computer, which is my main indoor hobby, going until I’m dead
  • I have spare hiking boots, which is my main outdoor hobby, to last until I’m too old to hike

Doing something to prepare provides a sense of agency over things out of my control which improves my mental well-being.

Prepping is of course not a fix to permanent scarcity or a catastrophe, but it might sustain life during a temporary shortage, and it might make life more enjoyable when non-essential but highly valued items like coffee become unavailable.

Prepping can be a good use of limited savings given that inflation is a likely outcome of energy scarcity. I smile every time I see price increases on things I have in inventory.

Health

When things get tough, good health will be one of our most important assets.

Most available employment will require manual labor, and if you’re out of shape and overweight you may be unemployable.

I expect pensions and safety nets to vaporize so many will be forced to work until they die.

I expect the availability and affordability of health care services to decline as governments become impoverished.

Covid taught me that I do not want to use our unethical and incompetent healthcare system if I can avoid it.

So I try to maintain good health by:

  • eating healthy unprocessed, low sugar foods
  • fasting 16 hours every day
  • getting some exercise
  • sleeping 8 hours
  • taking a few critical supplements like vitamin D and C
  • no alcohol or tobacco

Gratitude

Someone wise said something like “the foundation of happiness is gratitude”.

I believe it.

The lifestyle of the poorest Canadian is better than a pharaoh. It is easy to forget how lucky we are in the rich western countries at this point in history.

The majority of my good fortune came from being born in Canada, not from my skill or hard work.

So I try to be grateful.

A few things that work for me include:

  • cook deliberately: I plan my meals, and I think about the path the food took to get to my kitchen, and I try to show respect to the food by cooking it nicely, and wasting nothing
  • eat deliberately: I try to slow down and appreciate what I am eating
  • drive deliberately: when I press the accelerator I think about the miracle of fossil energy
  • shower deliberately: I think about the path the water took to get to my house, and the energy it took to heat the water, and what a luxury a hot shower is

Learn to Enjoy Your Own Company

I spend quite a bit of time alone for several reasons:

  • I find it easier to “collapse early and avoid the rush” when I am not surrounded by people competing for status
  • nobody likes being around a doomer, I’m invited less these days
  • I struggle to chit chat about things that do not matter
  • I have become less tolerant of people who believe nonsense and are incapable of changing beliefs regardless of evidence – yes I know MORT is often the cause, but I still don’t enjoy the company of people in denial

So I have learned to enjoy my own company.

I have conversations with myself, and I listen to interesting (and sometimes aware) people via podcasts and audiobooks, and I interact with a few nice and aware people at un-Denial.

MORT

When you become overshoot aware you realize there is near zero awareness and zero discussion in society about anything that matters, and not only are we doing nothing that a wise species should do, we are doing everything possible to make our predicament worse. This can be crazy making.

Understanding Dr. Ajit Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory has been a big help to maintaining my mental health because it provides a scientific explanation for why almost everyone in the world, including our brightest intellectuals and all of our leaders, are oblivious to everything that matters.

If I Was a Young Person

If I was a young person, knowing what I know now, and wondering what to do, I would:

  • not live in a big city
  • avoid occupations that depend on discretionary spending (except maybe brewing beer and distilling alcohol)
  • learn a useful skill that poor people will need and value
  • learn a skill that can be performed with today’s complex power equipment, and yesterday’s simpler manual equipment
  • I’d personally lean towards a trade like carpentry, plumbing, masonry, electrician, roofer, mechanic, etc. but I’m sure there are many other viable occupations
  • farming would be good but land is too expensive for most people to buy today; a good compromise is a skill that generates income and a home garden or rented community garden plot that you tend after work; or if you are passionate about farming, join a good farm as a laborer and work up to a position with responsibility
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

569 Comments

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 5:39 pm

I had a quick look, but consider the ‘planned’ $3B spend on 345MW way too high. Just dividing the capital cost by the lifetime output over 60 years gives a cost of $16.50/MWh, before any operating and maintenance costs, which for nuclear in the USA are around $30-32/MWh. It’s likely to be higher for a smaller unit.

We are building energy devices with current energy costs of around $40/MWh (the approximate average of wholesale energy price over the last decade). We are building these energy devices to replace $2.50-$5/MWh energy which we built and operate the current system with.

What it means is we need energy prices to be 10 to 12 times higher, relative to everything else, which is impossible to run a modern civilization upon.

Simple math provides the obvious conclusion current wholesale price of energy $40/MWh, so anything costing over $40/MWh to build and operate over the lifetime of operation adds nothing to civilization, except using more energy in the present to build it.

Plus of course, there are no products from nuclear that civilization constantly needs, that are produced by fossil fuels.

Everyone knows that the final cost will be a lot higher than planned and likewise the date of completion. They already know it’s not cost competitive, hence the $2B from govt to build it, added to debt pile no doubt. All debt has been energy related, dragging future use of energy into the present, hence debt has grown to unsustainable levels and just adds to the collapse when it comes.

A small gas plant that’s been built and added to the West Australian gas system had a capital cost of $40M, but is adding 3,041,581MWh of energy to the system per year. The lifetime operating cost of this new energy is $2.50/MWh.

The 345MW new reactor costing an expected $3B to build produces 3,022,000MWh of energy each year over it’s life at a cost of no less than $46/MWh and likely much higher.

The elite/very rich think they can survive just fine on much more expensive energy while the equality gets worse for everyone else. They don’t understand that every system grows slowly until it can’t, then some degrowth happens slowly at first then all at once, as in systems always unravel in collapse.

monk
monk
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2024 3:02 pm

I feel like I get PTSD from seeing her / hearing her. She’s gone off to get cushy jobs trying to get rid of free speech.

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2024 10:09 pm

Speaking of David Korowicz, could we see a cascading collapse of supply chains?

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 3:23 am

These days I even consider the Limits to Growth models wrong. They missed an important factor about energy and non renewable resources.

All non renewable resources are totally dependent on ‘energy’ for their extraction and use. In fact the only important non renewable resources are fossil fuels. There are no shortages of anything else. We as in humanity can extract any metal or mineral from basalts, granites, seawater, desert sands in literally unlimited quantities for thousands of years, if we had enough energy to do it.

Energy is the limiting factor, not the other minerals and metals. Unlimited too cheap to meter ‘energy’, means unlimited everything else.

Limited energy, which is what we have, means the LTG steady state was never possible, because they didn’t account for increasing energy to harvest lower grades of every non renewable resource that civilization needs to survive.

Therefore any civilization that uses metals and minerals as products will eventually get to the stage of having to use too much energy to replace these products when they inevitably suffer from entropy and dissipation back into the environment.

Civilization always needs to replace all the ‘tools’ of civilization over time. Even with 99.99% recycling, which is pretty much impossible, given enough cycles, the metals and minerals need to be replaced by new metals and minerals, which requires more energy on average as we use all the highest grade, easiest to get and closest metals and minerals first.

Our civilization is like a wooden sailing ship in the middle of the ocean that we have set fire to, too keep warm and comfortable, while we breed up our numbers onboard. We now have the most number of people and biggest fire, but without this large fire people will freeze, because they are spread all over the boat. We are running out of fuel and starting to use the deck chairs, sails and fishing gear as fuel, while the sea is getting rougher around us.

The only possible long term civilizations are those based upon completely renewable resources, rock, soil, wood, plants, animals solar and wind.

Anonymous
Anonymous
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 3:31 pm

Energy use needs to keep growing, even to keep the economy in a steady state.

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 3:36 pm

What is the energy required to get minerals from other planets? Is getting minerals from other planets really the wisest use of of our remaining fossil fuel budget?

And why is Elon Musk constantly screeching about “population collapse” when the population is growing by roughly 80 million per year?

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 8:47 pm

I don’t think that modernity will immediately implode when growth stops. We will likely get something like the great depression on steroids due to the overhang of debt and other financial claims, but not a collapse back to the stone age.

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 9:56 pm

Rob the problem is how do we get to medieval without collapsing back to near stone age first?

Unfortunately it has to be hard collapse when feedback loops kick in and we have 8B plus people to start with, all trying to survive. It will be an event that no human has ever experienced throughout history.

Even in past civilization collapses, some of the people were able to disappear into the jungle/forest or wilderness area and start from scratch as hunter gatherers with a bit of prior knowledge of some agriculture. Most people will have nowhere to go, except to the ‘relatives’ places in the country, if they can get there.

Once a collapse happens, fuel supplies will dry up very quickly. Modern farms will not be able to supply much food at all, and certainly not transport it anywhere. There will be virtually no horses to use, to carry food stuffs to nearest towns let alone cities.

Every prepper I’ve ever met or seen on a you tube documentary, is totally unprepared for what’s coming. We all rely so totally on fossil fuels we just don’t realise it…

I was in the mode of, we have to colonise space and keep growing just a few years ago, after working out civilization has to have growth to survive because of the metals issue, but it is too easy to poke holes in as viable.

The other aspect about it being possible to grow into space and interstellar regions, is that if it were possible, then Aliens would have done it and been everywhere, including using resources on Earth…

Gaia gardener
Gaia gardener
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 10:49 pm

Hello Rob and friends,

Thank you all for the stimulating daily reads, I only wish I had more time at the moment to follow through. I trust everyone is well and successfully trying to constantly recalibrate themselves in these off-centring times. Just a comment here because I couldn’t resist and it’s something I’ve been thinking about for a long time.

I don’t know how we are even going to be able to get back to medieval days as we’ve lost the foundational infrastructure and knowledge to do so, at least scaled up in a way that will lead to continuity of structured society. I recall reading that in Australia there are 200 some people who identify blacksmithing to be their career, but I am not sure many of these use pre-industrial methods to fabricate their wares, which are probably mainly wrought iron gates and chandeliers, not plows and horseshoes. In medieval times, every lane would have boasted a blacksmithery, and most could do simple forging.

Another example, we have 4 scythe kits (but no way of making more) but I don’t know of any neighbour that has one, but they all have ride-on lawn mowers. Nevertheless, due to physical energy and time constraints, we still use brushcutters and the scythes are back-up relics for the “one day”. Today we felled trees using chainsaws, once again we do have some axes, but our skill in using them is farcical compared to what every pioneer knew only 150 years ago. As for making and repairing axes and saws from scratch, I haven’t the faintest clue and I reckon this skill can’t exactly be learned competently from YouTube or even a book.

In medieval days, we had stables on every estate and legions of servants to care for the livestock. How many horses and oxen do we have at the ready now for working at plowing fields and cartage, not to mention the gear they need in order to do so? Who knows how to make saddles, harnesses, wheels and wagons? And in the quantity necessary to sustain even a village population? Just because we may live in a community with a few horses and cattle and some rusted out farm implements in the local county museum does not make us equipped for pre-industrial living. We have completely lost the collective knowledge, resources, and thus supply chain for those times and there’s no path to get that back in a concerted, coordinated way from where we are now. All it takes are simple thought experiments to prove that idea of when the lights go out, we will just go back to a more simple and wholesome era, is an impossibility. It seems that we can’t go forward into more technology but neither can we go back to what was once the latest technology, perhaps there’s some lesson in here about only being able to live in the present.

We can only hope to use the tools and knowledge we have, to the best of our ability and experience, for as long as we can. We hope to share what we can of material and knowledge with others who may reach our circle of influence but there is much uncertainty in how this may unfold. There is a world of difference between sharing and taking; one may take goods but skills and experience have to be earned and that takes time and energy we have already long squandered on other pursuits. And once skills and knowledge die out, then we really will be in the dark, and very likely adopting whatever survival strategy that still maximises power and potential.

I have written before that it may be poetic justice that our species will probably end as scavengers after our brief domination as apex predators. I am definitely in the camp that the final throes of collapse for the majority, will be nasty, brutish and swift, and that last might be our and the biosphere’s saving grace.

The wonder and awe of being alive now is in no way diminished, neither is our ability to choose how to make of our remaining days. I hope you and your families are going well and steadily. Namaste, friends.

Gaia gardener
Gaia gardener
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 11:05 pm

Hi Hideaway,

Haha, it looks like we have the same train of thought on this and I didn’t see your post until I uploaded mine so I am definitely seconding yours! I imagine you are keeping warm with your supply of wood and your Russian stove through the cold snap you’re having. Have you gotten some rain yet? Here in Far North QLD it’s been relatively warm for the season. Another perk of this highland tropical climate is we hairless apes don’t need to expend quite so much energy to stay warm during the winter and the summers aren’t as brutal in this elevation. either. But, every year is different now and it’s always good to be prepared for even drastic changes. The wood cutting today was for firewood as well as getting logs ready for inoculating with mushroom spawn, any one have much experience with this? If done properly, one log is supposed to provide a steady (seasonal) crop of mushrooms (oyster and shiitake varieties) for 5-7 years!

All the best and thank you for all your contributions on Rob’s page and those he reprints here. This is a beacon of sanity in the turbulent seas we are floundering in, and even though what we may be doing here is no more than re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, I cannot wish for better companions to the bitter end.

Namaste.

marromai
marromai
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 3, 2024 12:25 am

I don’t think, there will be a “medieval” life after collapse.
This was also metioned in the second half of my guest article Post Peak Everything

Let me quote the relevant part:

Q: Why should our highly complex society not “only” be thrown back to the development level of the 16th century?

A: This is just not possible. Where are the tools of the 16th century?Where are the robust but low-yielding seeds of the 16th century? Where are the cows of the 16th century? Small-framed, robust, calving unassisted because the offspring are not uterus-bursting high-yielding cattle?

All that is no longer there. Instead, we have corn rootworm, fire blight, Colorado potato beetle and other pests that were unknown in the 16th century.

Where are the 30 people per square kilometer of the 16th century?
How many do we have today? Around 250.

No one is going to push aside some humus and use a pickaxe to mine coal or ores anymore. These resources are gone, no longer extractable without large-scale industrial material and energy input.

Economic reconstruction, by the way, goes the same way as energy consumption: No energy, no recovery.

Nobody will found a city at the sea anymore and reach a population density of 100 persons per square kilometer, thanks to fishing like in the antiquity.

The shoals of fish for this are also gone and will be for our lifetime.

Even if we still hurriedly forge everything possible to plows: Where are the oxen?

Even if we plow the fields with human power: Where is the non-F1 hybrid seed for next year’s harvest?

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 3, 2024 1:29 am

Thanks Gaia, you put it so much more eloquently than I ever could.. This should be framed on everyone’s mantlepiece…..

” We have completely lost the collective knowledge, resources, and thus supply chain for those times and there’s no path to get that back in a concerted, coordinated way from where we are now.

All it takes are simple thought experiments to prove that idea of when the lights go out, we will just go back to a more simple and wholesome era, is an impossibility.

It seems that we can’t go forward into more technology but neither can we go back to what was once the latest technology, perhaps there’s some lesson in here about only being able to live in the present.”

…with extra paragraphs added LOL…

It hasn’t rained more than a few mm here and we are in a time of year where it’s either drizzle or rain every day normally. Today not a cloud in the sky, but temperatures below freezing in the morning and barely getting above 10c in the sunniest time of day.

We don’t have a Russian heater, but do have a big wood heater, that can close down, and last all night. This is the driest I’ve ever seen it for this time of year ever, and by a long, long way. We have truly trashed the climate..

Rob, another aspect of not being able to go back to medieval type conditions is that we’ve possibly stuffed climate so much that any permanent agriculture is impossible.

Also my argument about Aliens, was that it’s impossible everywhere, hence no Aliens nor signals as there civilizations all collapsed just like ours will, and so will others throughout the universe, all by exactly the same means of overshooting their environment, and their civilizations only lasting a short limited time when they start to use fossil fuels…

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 3, 2024 7:50 am

Occasionally a species overshoots the carrying capacity so badly that when they crash, they simply go extinct. The reindeer on St. Matthew’s Island are a good example.

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Stellarwind72
July 3, 2024 5:54 am

Thanks for the re-read Marromai, I read that last year and can remember nodding in agreement when I first read it..

scarr0w
scarr0w
Reply to  Hideaway
July 5, 2024 11:27 am


Maybe time to mention this source for post industrial technology.

Not sure if anyone here keeps tabs this guy. I’ve been following him for years. Maybe time to start emulating? Talk about prepping for the future! Yet another Aussie with a clue.

https://primitivetechnology.wordpress.com

He also has a youtube channel with all the more recent projects.

marromai
marromai
Reply to  Stellarwind72
July 2, 2024 12:41 am

I found this interesting site where you can build dynamic system models and run simulations on it:

https://insightmaker.com/insight/UKfgCDFLirLz1EtXh1ikg

This guy has built a model where he shows that failing supply and demand react chaotic. If you combine this with the above network failures, I guess it could get very dirty…

By the way, there are also rebuilds of the LtG world3 model to play with.

marromai
marromai
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 3, 2024 12:11 am


Hello Rob,not really. Since most models there are quite limited on some specific systems or aspects, I had the idea of building my own model of my understandings so far.

But I didn’t know where to start, so I’ve discarded the idea due to lack of motivation…

el mar
el mar
Reply to  marromai
July 3, 2024 1:48 am

My guess: Collapse will happen like this:

Saludos

el mar

paqnation
Reply to  el mar
July 3, 2024 2:32 pm

Thats my kind of collapse. 😊
Something satisfying about the video too. Waiting for what you know is coming and yet just looking at it from the front you’d never know there was a problem.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2024 12:03 pm

Those not worried about Nuclear War are uninformed in denial idiots. It is probably the biospheres greatest threat. Sure, climate change will screw with the biosphere but some mammals will probably survive. A nuclear war has the potential to take the planet back to insects and plants (sorry New Zealand, Australia I think you are ultimately screwed by fall out and nuke plant meltdowns long term). With Biden being brain dead and his ignorant corrupt self serving family in charge of the U.S. I don’t see how we avoid WW3 and nuclear Armageddon. Bad Monday blues.

AJ

Stellarwind72
June 30, 2024 9:51 pm

If you are looking for some left-leaning hopium, here it is.

The biggest problem with the Solarpunk city is that it is energy and materials blind. A city powered by solar energy would necessarily be a lot smaller than the today’s megacities. Even though the channel owner is highly aware of the symptoms of overshoot, he still denies overpopulation. But there are a few things he does get right, like the need to drastically reduce the use of private automobiles, and the need for de-growth in general.

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2024 1:14 pm

Now we understand the tale of the emperor with no clothes was not fiction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes)

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 30, 2024 7:51 pm

Remember the survey Nate asked listeners to do about a month ago, where everyone from here put population as the major aspect to look at… Silence since on that survey, because I think a lot of overshoot aware people also population the same as the same important aspect of overshoot.

Population is something Nate seems desperate to avoid, despite it being the elephant in the room.

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 30, 2024 8:49 pm

Gonna watch this video tonight because of the recommendation. I am slowly losing interest in TGS. I probably only watch one out of three videos. I still like Nate a lot, but most interviews are identical. And the lack of overpopulation talk is getting ridiculous at this point.

Regarding that survey, I have only heard him mention 2 popular subjects from it. Vanessa Andreotti (I liked her interview a lot, but its still the same old formula for TGS). And the second was David Graeber’s writing partner, David Wengrow (who’s personality will put you to sleep, but he has lots of interesting tidbits, so I’m looking forward to it). 

He should have went full disclosure and broke down the results of that survey so the fans could get a sense of what the other fans are thinking. I bet population was high on the list, but we’ll never know because Nate is not allowed or just doesn’t want to touch it.

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2024 1:04 pm

Yes, Jancovici has quite a “large” base of followers in France, expecially amoung engineers. He created The Shift Project (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shift_Project) and there is a somewhat related nonprofit called The Shifters (https://www.theshifters.org/)

He seems to be a very positive, honest and rational mind. However, personaly, Jancovici is not my cup of tea. He is a doer and has an engineering mindset. I feel we need to grow beyond technocracy, to move away from the mindset of control. Life is not something which can be framed as a mathematical problem from some “Grande école” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grande_%C3%A9cole).

Btw, I read this comics 🙂 Jancovici puts nuclear energy forward as a parachute to be used during the degrowth phase. I am not sure this is feasible. And what happens, when the installation will need to be decomissioned? Also, I got the impression he has a very civilisation centric view of existence. (There are some pictures depicting middle age as a dark backward period). But maybe, that’s only me: you’ll tell me.

In summary, my harsh verdict is: lack of imagination, lack of poetry, lack of rawness 🙂 But probably the limit of what is acceptable to battery farmed humans.

But, change will turn out to be so radical that it is not imaginable from the couch of this civilisation.

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 10:02 am

Yes. Thank you Rob.

Have a good time reading the comic book.

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2024 5:16 pm

Thanks for recommending this. Jean-Marc is really good at explaining our predicament. Subtitles helped me a lot.

In other news, Erik Michaels linked our guest essay in his newest article. Out of respect for you, I will not provide link. But I thought it was kind of cool. Except I wish he would have been more flattering. That excellent essay deserves more than just: 

“On coping with the knowledge we have and what to do about it, this article is quite comprehensive.”

And just to leave something for the heck of it. This is a beautiful song I found recently. Cant stop listening. 

Ocie Elliott – Like A River – YouTube

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 1, 2024 8:46 pm

Goddamn! All the good people of this world live in Canada or NZ/AU. Share the wealth you guys. 😊

I like most of their songs. Here is a live recording that highlights their wonderful chemistry.

Ocie Elliott – Tracks (Live) – YouTube

And yes, Erik’s is the only place where I have ever seen un-Denial links. Would have thought Sarah Connor would have some by now, since I bug her all the time trying to recruit her. Dont worry Rob, when I get my site up and running, I’ll be plugging the hell out of this site.

Actually have thought about trying my own. But I can already see the future. Maybe a couple people here would support me with some comments, but then we’ll all rush back to un-Denial because this is where we freaks belong. No point in trying to create a middleman.

Plus, with my focus on dark topics, if I did get an audience, it will be filled with people who you would never want to invite into your home. 😊

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 3:01 am

I disagree with your #4, you do not have an unpleasant personality IMHO.

You are forthright, clear, logical and rational those are admirable characteristics.

AJ

Hamish McGregor
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 1:26 pm

I agree with AJ.

Also, I’m curious about “original research”, what could that be, given our very limited numbers and resources?

Perran
Perran
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 4:08 pm

I agree with AJ too. You can scrub off #4

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 6:51 pm

#4 made me laugh. You crochety old man you. 😊. But that is not a valid reason. 

#3 maybe some blame here, but only a tiny bit.

#2 is the winner. 

#1 should actually be the main reason this site is popular. I was so relieved when I found un-Denial. Instantly, a big piece of the puzzle finally made sense (by understanding how important denial is). There is a prize waiting for most overshoot aware people that wander onto this site.

Understanding why Carl Sagan, Noam Chomsky, and pretty much the rest of the world have no clue about this stuff allowed me to first, let go of it. No more doubting myself about why a polymath does not understand what my low IQ brain understands easily. And it also helps me to connect dots in other areas. 

So you get the huge relief and confidence of knowing that you are not the crazy one. After some time on this site with new or more in-depth concepts you will understand why rapid population reduction is the only good option at this point. And you’ll probably get into even darker subjects. 

So in a nutshell, MORT is dark and people aint signing up for dark. But it’s the only road to the top of Collapse Mountain. (and the big bonus is: the relief of understanding how important denial is far outweighs the scary, dark stuff) 

p.s. Just saw your good comment on Tom Murphys blog.  Love Tom but hate how he started his answer: I don’t deny that denial is an important factor…. but…”

With that kind of reply, I dont have to read anymore, I already know he is underestimating denial severely.

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
July 2, 2024 9:27 pm

The aspect about denial is that most people think every problem has a solution, they have probably watched too many TV shows and movies where the hero/heroine always solves the problem in the end.

Put the ‘problem’ of a rogue black hole suddenly appearing and will wipe out our solar system in 6 months to anyone that has denial and ask them what’s the solution. They will most likely deny it’s possible or come up with weird useless ways to combat the problem. Or the ‘other’ standard, “God will save us”…

Such people are never going to understand they have denial of bad outcomes, and it’s pointless discussing the future with them, unless you are just countering their hopium for ‘others’ benefit.

BTW this from an Astronomy web page… “Their results, which appeared in The Astrophysical Journal, raise the possibility of finding more of the estimated 100 million such rogue stellar-mass black holes drifting through our galaxy unseen.”

What are the odds of a rogue black hole passing within 1-2 light years of our solar system and greatly disrupting gravity throughout our solar system, and hence causing massive short term changes that are unpredictable?

Given that our Galaxy is around 105,000 light years in diameter, the odds of a black hole passing within 1-2 light years (as in less than half the distance to the nearest star) are extremely high, and likely happens fairly regularly on geologic time scales. It probably also helps to account to so many mass extinctions and rapid changes in the geological records of sudden massive tectonic activity. Our period of stability, being the Holocene is most likely the anomaly… Sorry off on a tangent..

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 30, 2024 1:45 pm

That is a keeper. (subtitles make it easier to understand the brilliant lyrics)

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 30, 2024 1:42 pm

Haha. Very funny (and scary true)

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 30, 2024 4:11 pm

After civilization collapses, if the New New World ever produces another empire, seems like it will be New Zealand. Lots of survivors will come from there. And many will already have the important essential skills for agriculture. 

My nightmare consists of climate intensification to the point where there is some insane mega earthquake which opens up 500 years’ worth of easily accessible fossil fuels. Would take some time to play out, but you NZ’ers might end up being responsible for getting humanity back to some form of industrialized BAU. 😊

paqnation
June 29, 2024 7:26 pm

Great movie recommendation. The Man from Earth (2007). It’s a dialogue driven film that takes place entirely in a living room. If you can handle these types of movies, I bet you’ll enjoy it. 

It’s a fictional story about how we came to believe what we believe. And it doesn’t matter how spiritual or atheist you are, this movie will make you think. I don’t recommend doing any research, just start watching it for free on yt right here:

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 8:07 pm

In the U.S., commercial real estate is deflating, with some predicting the outcome could be worse than the crash of 2008-2009.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-economist-thinks-major-commercial-141737717.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/office-commercial-real-estate-cre-crash-2008-gfc-delinquency-vacancy-2024-3

I generally take things economists say with a grain of salt, but there are warning signs.

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 4:12 pm

Funny video. Shows the idiocracy in full motion. But its misleading because it makes me think everything was ok in 2012.

Evil Empire was obviously not ok back then. They were better at packaging & selling the illusion with smoke and mirrors. That’s it. Just like they had been for all of history prior. 

This debate is more about how social media and technology have evolved. The efficiency with hijacking our brains and dumbing us down has been turned up full blast (humans have never had a 12 year stretch where it was this powerful and intense). The political arena & ruling elites are not immune to this. Technology has the same effect on them as it has on us.

Back then I could read books no problem. I could sit down and watch a three-hour movie without ever pausing it to jump on the computer for a hit of dopamine. I only spent a fraction of time on the computer compared to now. I still had a social life where I enjoyed going out and mingling with other sapiens that were not in my inner circle tribe. And we were not nearly as divided.

I don’t think we’ll be around, but by some miracle if we are still in BAU mode in 2036, those debates will make the 2024 debate feel like the 2012 debate. AI guarantees it.

monk
monk
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 5:46 pm

so good, so funny

nikoB
nikoB
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 5:02 pm

most people would watch that and think well the problem is well in hand. Let us not mention all the mining etc that needs to happen, etc etc……..

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 3:34 pm

Yes, and at the same time, it’s complex because there is a feedback loop: who/what shapes the beliefs of the mass of “citizens”?

I never quite understood Hobbes Leviathan arguments which makes us believe the state of nature is that of a constant war of all against all. To me, that is a very ancient mystification which serves the purpose of legitimizing the state. And it seems to me, most people I know believe, that, without the state, it would soon be chaos as every one would turn against every one. I don’t see how this can be right: people are not totally stupid and can quickly understand the value of cooperation. Cooperation is possible without vertical/central authority. Of course, denial helps in this rationalization, because part of the reason most people believe this is because they know they are weak/powerless in front of the state, but would rather not admit this truth to themselves. Few are the Nietzschean men.

Closer to us, we have mass media, and further from us, the church. Etc…

There is so much convenient bullshit everywhere… In other words, the masses are fed lies, but the lies are comfortable and most would go at great length before examining them.

Just my 2 cents.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 30, 2024 7:48 am

Again you are correct in recommending this Rob.

Stellarwind72
June 28, 2024 9:12 pm

Why doesn’t international law apply to the west?

paqnation
Reply to  Stellarwind72
June 29, 2024 4:33 am

Hi Stellar. That question stands out for me because I have asked it more than any other along my 20-year journey of waking up. Gonna try to give a simplified answer. I did not watch the video, hopefully I’m not repeating anything.

The phrase “the west” is cloaked in bullshit. Let’s first make sure I know what it really means. USA, and that’s it. I formed that opinion years ago from seeing all UN, World Council vote tallies for some important issue look like this:

188 votes Yes / 1 vote No 

Or even the more absurd where usa abstains, so its 188-0. Whatever the important issue is, with some luck, it gets some media coverage for a while, but goes away eventually. Most are killed right there on the spot by one country’s vote. And they don’t even have to waste the energy of showing up to cast that vote. That is the “West”. The head MF’er in charge. And it surprised me that these UN votes (that tell such an obvious story) would get out to the public. And then surprised again to realize “they” don’t have to hide anything.

So how and why does the rest of the world put up with this shit? What, no formed alliances by now to take out the big bad wolf? C’mon man! This should have been handled long ago. But it goes back to whoever wins the race for the Old World to create the first big empire in the New World was pretty much guaranteed to be driving the bus during the sacred ancient sunlight breakage era. Tons of untapped resources. Perfect location (big island too far away for enemies to be successful at killing you or destroying your precious “property”).  

Skip to the end of WWII, it was a cash bonanza. Most of the world is destroyed except yours. And everyone is afraid of you because you actually went through with dropping two a-bombs on people. You’ve got a monopoly on everything (for a while). And of course, they’re all broke so you get the power that comes with the vampire like combo of high interest lending to buy your shit. The exponential growth, power, and influence from that monopoly bonanza is almost a “game over” by itself.

A different country inventing the nuclear bomb first is about the only thing that could have changed international law from ever applying to USA. But its coming to an end, thank god. Climate, energy depletion, virus/vax, BRICS, nukes, inflation, take your pick.

p.s. this energy constraint focus I’m on is making it easy to see that my white skin blaming was a waste of time. But don’t celebrate too much. It’s not a great tradeoff. No reason to focus on skin color anymore, but much reason to focus on why humans need to go extinct asap. 😊

Stellarwind72
June 28, 2024 9:06 pm

20 Volume Knobs for a Post-Growth Future | Frankly 64

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 9:22 pm

By the “Hideaway fast collapse” do you mean a collapse like the one described by David Korowicz in these papers?

Click to access Tipping-Point-Nov.pdf


Click to access Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Stellarwind72
June 29, 2024 5:07 am

My fast collapse theory and I have to call it theory until it happens, is based on a couple of aspects.

Firstly we have been in decline since the early-mid ’70’s when the rise in oil production stopped being exponential and started to go up in a linear fashion. This allowed us to hold modern civilization together, while dragging future use of oil, coal and gas into the present, using debt as the roundabout mechanism. All while world population has grown to massive overshoot plus using up all the easy to get high grade ores of everything.

All the technology and efficiency gains have led us to a much more complex and fragile industrial civilization, where there is total dependence on the entire global supply chain operating in harmony with an ever increasing quantity of energy and minerals needed to feed this super organism of modern civilization.

Once we are past peak oil and the plateau of oil production, there will inevitably be a period of accelerating decline in oil production, which will precipitate much higher prices and lead to crashing markets and debt implosion. At this point printing money, which worked in the past can no longer work as oil production continues to fall. All that’s likely to happen is massive inflation during the continued fall in oil production.

With oil production declining, and deep recession/depression around the world, chaotic feedback loops will prevent the global supply system from working properly, if at all. Mine production, will fall, factory output has to fall with less supplies, again in a chaotic manner effecting a vast array of businesses across the world, reducing the ability to make complex machinery and repair a lot of existing machinery, affecting more businesses and power grids. The supply chain disruptions will see a faster reduction in oil, gas and coal production, also affecting their supply chains, because it’s too complex for anyone to fully understand.

It becomes a self sustaining reaction to the downside, because every system is so complex, and trying to go ‘local’, as in start up new industries to make important parts, equipment whatever, just wont work as these new local industries need a lot of energy and materials to start up, the exact things that have increased demand everywhere, just as the shortages grow.

At the same time 8 plus billion people need to be fed, with a world of rapidly falling food staples due to shortages of fuel for tractors, fertilizers, pesticides and transport fuel to cities. Food prices obviously also go through the roof..

It rapidly turns into uncontrollable by governments, with the rapidly increasing unemployment, lack of investment funds and food shortages, leading to populations everywhere becoming increasingly desperate.

Even if governments brought in harsh emergency measures before it gets to food shortages, rationing fuel to ‘important’ uses, the following year there is less fuel anyway, likewise the year after that etc. Very rapidly, no matter how ‘tough’ the government, there will not be enough fuel for mines, farmers and heavy transport, guaranteeing starvation in cities..

Of course the above is just normal collapse and assumes war, as in WW3, and/or serious climate change doesn’t collapse civilization first, or hastening the process

The intense complexity we have requires billions of people to provide the markets for every little widget manufactured, plus an organised system of 8 billion people needs the complexity to stay stable. As the complexity unwinds due to global supply chain disruption and oil production falling, it can no longer support 8 billion people and the crash in population can no longer support complexity, so again a spiral downward in a world of falling energy availability.

It seems to be a law of the universe that small simple systems unravel slowly while large complex systems collapse quickly. A small red dwarf star will shine for billions perhaps trillions of years before slowly running out of fuel, while the largest stars life, has many complex reactions within and collapse very quickly by going supernova after a relatively short 10 million years or so.

Our civilization is the largest to ever exist by orders of magnitudes over previous civilizations and incomprehensively complex, so the final implosion should be spectacular. Prior civilization collapses are not viable models for ours, as the complexity is so vast compared to anything prior..

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 8:38 pm

I could write a TL;DR of the slow collapse argument. I’d need some time though.

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 9:47 pm

I actually think that collapse may be slow for some regions and faster for others depending on factors such as ecology, demographics and geopolitics. It isn’t as if oil and mineral resources will vanish overnight. I also agree with points 1 and 4.

One factor in the debate on fast or slow collapse: How well can we fall back on older (i.e. simpler) technologies to cushion the descent. I do agree that in the not so distant future, a wide array of discretionary products will become permanently unavailable.

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Hideaway
June 29, 2024 4:30 pm

Thank you Hideaway for this latest summary of the fast-collapse theory (it’s probably the third explanation of yours I read about it, but every time, I understand a little bit better).

Personnally, I am fond of a theory of two economies: fast collapse of everything exploitative/globalized/centralized/high-tech/industrial/service coupled with the slow rise of inefficient/small-scale/local/decentralized economies oriented towards co-survival with the rest of the living.

Even though I believe my “plan” could technically be feasible, I also think your scenario will turn out to be closer to how it will unfold: it’s easier for human to die en masse rather than implement something preemptively or which requires collective focus for a long time. Although we (this culture at least) may not want to admit it, death can often be the path of least resistance and the most efficient way to quickly get from one state to another.

However, I also believe, this could unfold quite differently according to the locations in the world: places which can sustain their population with local production and which are bearable all year long temperature wise, may fare better. Also, some places have a great probability of turning into hell quite quickly (densely packed cities short on water and dependent on A/C). Current food inflation and lowering fertility rates are a blessing in (not so) disguise.

As a side-note, framing the question this way is extremely anthropocentric: the so-called collapse is probably going to be the flourishing of something else. I find the case of wildlife in Chernobyl fascinating.

paqnation
Reply to  Charles
June 29, 2024 6:49 pm

The unexpected explosion of life in Chernobyl fascinates me too. And Hideaways brilliant fast-collapse theory is why I am hopeful for that Chernobyl effect to happen worldwide after humans die off. 440 Chernobyl’s sounds like way too much for Mother Earth to handle, but life has proven itself time and time again at being unbelievably resilient.  

Below is a recent interaction I had when trying to explain why all humans must go extinct. Have had a couple of these already. This one is from Indi’s site. No need to include my comment because you guys have already seen those words. I’ll just copy the two replies. (but I’ll leave the link below just in case)

MORT will guarantee that most overshoot aware people agree more with Alan Sutton. My goal is to work on tightening up my story in order to convert the people “on the fence” into mine and Pintada’s view. If I can ever get you Charles to come over to this line of thinking, then I will retire and know my job is done. 😊 

Alan Sutton: Dear me. That is a sad thing to end up thinking. There is plenty of good. Rooting for the extinction of humans is easy to say but hard to swallow. Believe me, I am pessimistic but not all the humans are guilty. Certainly none of those poor bloody kids in Gaza.

Pintada: Is humanity better than the 300-400 species that go extinct every day? Since it is us that is causing those extinctions apparently the choice has been made. Someone, or something decided to kill all of those animals so that humanity could have airplanes (or whatever). The only way to fix the problem is to have humanity go extinct and like paqnation I can’t wait.

Opposites Day — indi.ca

Charles
Charles
Reply to  paqnation
June 30, 2024 12:41 am

Hello paqnation. Sorry to disappoint you (again). I don’t think this is going to happen during this lifetime for me to root for the extinction of humans.

Difficult to make this short…

I don’t carry the collective guilt of extinction. I don’t really understand abstractions such as “human species”. And responsibility, guilt of a species are not notions which make much sense to me. I believe the notion of species belongs to a particular scientific field and can not be used in this way.

If I beat a child, or if I plow a field, I feel pain in my heart and that’s how I know this is “bad”. This is a small action, at my scale, with relatively direct feedback which I can witness. Even though I had to unlearn my endoctrinations to be able to hear my feelings and this world which talks in so many various ways. For instance, I choose to garden without gloves, because if a bush is too thorny, I want to leave him finish his cycle. His thorns are his way to communicate this is an area under construction. I have come to understand that many of the unpleasant situations I can find myself in just stem from my inability to listen and my obsession to go on with my idea. Similarly, if something is too difficult, (like getting a root out of the ground by hand) I just don’t do it and wait for another force to erode it.

With climate change, extinction, this is different. This is the field of “grand” abstract ideas I can’t really relate to. There is not much meaning in that. I believe this is simply not for me to decide or worry or feel guilt. Worse, I believe, collective guilt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_collective_guilt) is maybe part of the psychopathic propaganda this society subjects us to. For most, it serves no real purpose, except to live in a constant mild level of fear and do nothing about it except consume and comply.

At a philosophical level, who/what really is in control? This led to that led to this and here we are, in bondage of our genes, of our nature, of our personal history, of our context, of our environment. If you cut out an individual out of reality, is he responsible for his behaviour or is everything else except himself making him who he is? The dichotomy humans/nature is only one way to give meaning to what we are witnessing. We could equally say it is simply nature against nature. Is there truly any thing, entities against entities, or is this reality, just a field of unicity? Of course, there are many ways to frame things, not necessarily exclusive. Thinking in terms of species, is just picking a particular model.

Lastly, (maybe not for you, but I suspect for some), to think we, (exceptional) humans, are the root of all evil and the source of this extinction (the destroyer of worlds as some like to repeat, even though, I am unsure of which worlds Krishna was refering to in the bhagavad gita) is the opposite side of the same coin: humanism, anthropocentrism, exceptionalism or human supremacism, as Tom Murphy and Derrick Jensen like to call it. It feels to me as a yet again hidden form of egocentrism.

Anyway, I love life. It’s going to continue, die and renew, shape-shift…

🙂

paqnation
Reply to  Charles
June 30, 2024 2:57 pm

Monks request the other day asking if I could tone it down on my harshness for humans and now this great conversation with you has me wanting to try and explain myself a bit. I dive in too hard and fast with this stuff. I can be very aggressive and unstable. And because I am such a typical Empire Baby, I like to make it all about me. I do appreciate everyone’s patience and pleasantness.

As I’ve said before, un-Denial is the first time I’ve been vocal online ever. So when I got here, I was very green. If Rob still remembers, he’ll vouch for me. For my first comment (my long introduction) I emailed it to Rob via his contact page. And I was asking him if it could be a guest essay because I thought that was how you post comments to this site. 😊. I’m telling you; I was green.

Once I figured it out, I started to let loose. And I went through what most people probably go through when they come out from the shadows for the first time online. Confidence going up and down. Not really for the shorter posts, but for the longer ones “likes” and replies would get my dopamine juices flowing, and no activity would get me bummed out. There were many times where I questioned if I should be posting on a site where the audience is so knowledgeable. I was also worried because I have the disease that Rob hates so much. Taking 10 words to say one. With the experience I have gained, nowadays it’s easier to barrel through all those worries, to hell with ego. 😊

But I hope I have credibility here for honesty. I was a lying salesman for twenty years. Stopped in 2017. This site is the first time I’ve challenged myself to go full honest ever in my life. Easier than I thought it would be. Should have faced that fear a long time ago, but I think it’s only because of my journey and this site.

The only thing you ever have to worry with me lying about nowadays is an occasional exaggeration. Like my intro post where I’m trying to sound like I became overshoot aware in 2020. Nope. Jan 2022. My ego still has trouble admitting that. Saying you’ve been overshoot ever since covid, sounds way cooler. 😊   

My high point on this site was my guest essay in Feb. It’s also my curse because it came so early, and I’ll never top it. I’m a one hit wonder. It could use a rewrite to change a few things and tighten it up, but that essay is damn good. And I know I’ve had a few other good ones too. But I am known here because I throw a lot of shit on the wall to see what sticks. So yes, I have more bad ones than good. 😊. But that damn essay! I can’t get back to that zone.

And a tip for the audience members who are in favor of more content. No one will admit this, but if the like button activity around here doubled or tripled, I guarantee the posts would increase with about the same ratio of hits & misses from the authors. And no replies required. It doesn’t take much to motivate the simple monkey brain. 😊  

My low point here was my MORT for Dummies. I was so sure that thing would be the talk of the town when I was thinking it up on vacation. And then devasted when it got no love here. I still read it once in a while. It’s pure trash, but it does actually help me a little bit.

Sorry, that was a lot rambling to finally get to the point. My new flavor of the month with energy constraints and cheering for human extinction is too dark, I know. And it screams of being mad and blaming something. A very delicate topic to balance. Easy to get wrapped up in the “humans deserve this” aspect. But totally unproductive and coming from a negative place in the heart.  

When it’s pure with no garbage interference, it’s coming from a simple, honest and scientific approach to the puzzle (I miss Dowd so much. He was good with this subject). My goal is to write a high-quality essay about it. 

Charles
Charles
Reply to  paqnation
July 1, 2024 12:25 pm

Hello paqnation

🙂

Did you notice I never gave likes? Just so you know: simply because it’s a hassle to login… I am kind of proud that I do not to contribute to your dopamine shots 🙂

I don’t have much to reply. Don’t worry being dark. It does not feel too dark for me yet. Nor do I find you mad. We just have different ways to make sense of it all. And that’s fine.

These days, I try to focus on the concrete, the feasible at my scale and in my context: I consider full picture ideas only insofar as they help me stay the course. I guess, that’s all I was expressing in the previous comment. Also, instead of constricting my heart to follow the head, I am trying it upside down: starting from listening the heart.

paqnation
Reply to  Charles
July 1, 2024 1:49 pm

Thanks Charles. I’m so with you about trying it upside down. My babbling comment above proves it. Sometimes letting the heart take the lead over the mind will produce much ado about nothing. 😊

And damn you for depriving me of my dopamine! LOL. You get a pass because you post comments. I was mainly talking to the lurkers.

Hideaway
Hideaway
Reply to  Charles
June 30, 2024 2:50 am

Hi Charles, …” coupled with the slow rise of inefficient/small-scale/local/decentralized economies oriented towards co-survival with the rest of the living.”

I certainly agree with slow rise of small scale local economies over time, but I have a hard time believing in last bit of “oriented towards co-survival with the rest of the living.”

I’d like to think that is how the remainder of humanity exists in the future, but past collapses of civilizations have led people to regroup, reorganise and build another unsustainable civilization.

I think it’s the nature of civilization itself. We get specialization of tasks and people doing these specialised tasks can see that life gets better for themselves if their share or position grows, plus leaders always are in favor of growth to be bigger than the other tribes/groups/settlements near by, as worried about being overrun by others as much as anything.

Only without civilization, in a hunter gatherer mode do groups of humans seem to be able to get along, as long as each group stays in their territory, unless invited by other groups..

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Hideaway
June 30, 2024 11:54 am

Well, it depends if humanity really has a choice at this point.

You may be right, this is just an intuition which goes like this:

I believe we have reached the point where cooperation with the rest of the living is now the optimal path. In other words, not only is this probably a matter of survival (on a depleted polluted Earth), but also, humans will get more by contributing to replenish life rather than plundering it.

To risk a financial analogy, my simple idea goes like this: we can’t eat the capital anymore, we are limited to the interests which are very low because the capital has been so degraded. The only option to increase our gains is to contribute to the accumulation of capital (I am talking about natural capital here).

Ernst Gotsch says something like this about agriculture: that the ecosystems of the world are maintained in the accumulation phase (an early phase in the successionary model). If we were to operate on the abundance phase of the system, the gains would be much more and benefit the rest of life too. Grow 4, give back 3, but in a state of the ecosystem which is able to generate 4 rather than the 1 we are currently totally accaparating.

Same with war: at some point, peace is the optimal strategy, because the gains are so little as to not justify going to war anymore.

This is only an intuition and accept I may be wrong. Still, I base all my actions on this intuition. (mostly to try something else, because culturally this goes counter-current)

We could call this phase of human evolution: reintegration, or the end of separation. This may take quite a long time to establish itself. But, I still think that is a possible outcome.

(Then, once natural capital is replenished enough, a new civilization will come and plunder 😉

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 1:58 pm

There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party … and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat. – Gore Vidal

I watched the RFK one. Yes, he was much better than those two idiots, but he wasn’t as good as I thought he’d be. Doesn’t matter though as he has no chance anyway.

The stupidest moment of the entire night did not involve any of the debaters. It came from the RFK moderator. Towards the end that dipshit said something like:

“Well Mr Kennedy, if you believe what those candidates are saying you’d think America is in real trouble. But I don’t see people lining up to leave the country. I see people trying to get in the country. And yes the middle class is disappearing in America, but that’s because they are all getting upgraded to the upper class.” 

And that was the moderator from the independent (non-corporate sponsored) debate. What an absolute blind and obedient jackass.

Anonymous
Anonymous
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 4:20 pm

“Unfortunately, most people vote like they never left grade school. They pick the loud jock with great one-liners that promises to remove bean sprouts from the cafeteria.”

That’s about the size of it…

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 6:36 pm

As a 20-something, I feel the same.

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Stellarwind72
June 28, 2024 10:06 pm

Biden Implodes: And Here’s Who Is Really To Blame

The Debate on 06/27 is a damning indictment of the American political system in its entirety.

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 11:32 pm

I don’t know.

nikoB
nikoB
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 29, 2024 12:22 am

Biden did good. Jill even gave him an ice cream after. 🙄😬

This is exactly how empires crash and burn.

paqnation
June 27, 2024 8:56 pm

Good short video about why music sucks nowadays. It got me thinking. Was gonna write something about how society (not just music) falls into this category. But then I saw this comment that sums it up perfect.

“This is a fantastic bit of social commentary. Speaks to something beyond just music. Our whole culture is increasingly 1) Easily produced, 2) Easily consumed, 3) Easily forgotten”

el mar
el mar
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 4:47 am

From “das gelbe Forum” “Ashitaka” – translated: https://www.dasgelbeforum.net/index.php?id=656872

What very few people realize is that today’s 25-year-olds have been completely psychologically reprogrammed in the last 15 years. And this also applies to all migrant daughters and sons. For today’s 15-year-olds, it is even more dramatic: almost none of them are capable of making social contacts with the opposite sex, of having sexual experiences in the coming years and then of fulfilling their desire to have a child in a relationship. The ever-increasing development of social media will make it impossible to escape into the desert of reality. They have lost any potential to gain a foothold in a society that makes relationships and children possible in the first place. This development will rob us of our ideals and hopes at such a tremendous speed that today’s society will be unrecognizable in a few years. There will then be no need for primary schools. What comes next, here as in all other EU states (especially the eastern ones), will no longer be able to deal with this curriculum content.

Very few people are aware of the extent of the population destruction and the inevitable destruction of today’s welfare state. The population figures, and even the birth rates of the last few years, do not reflect the exponential dimension of the collapse. This is why corrections on the markets are always so sudden and unexpectedly severe. Because we do not want to be aware of the shortest exponential equivalents of the waves preparing for the big change.

Saludos

el mar

nikoB
nikoB
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 6:33 am

Yes I tried to explain the difference to my 16 year old daughter about experiencing music from the longing to buying and then listening while absorbing the visuals of the record.

She is quite keen on vinyl but really has no money to buy it. At least she gets the idea of listening to an album though doesn’t do it regularly. She does note though that spotify is mostly feeding her crap and is now looking for new places to get recommendations.

I quite liked Pandora. It introduced me to some great music such as A fine Frenzy and her album The pines.

Look it up on You tube. For some reason it won’t let me link it.

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 3:07 pm

Spending hard earned cash no doubt. For a couple of summers in the mid 80’s, me and my two best friends would go door to door begging to wash your car for $2. Three or four cars would give us enough to buy a new album (cassette tape) at the record store. 

Or how about recording music from the radio onto a tape. First form of piracy for me. Top 8 at 8pm on local radio channel you were just waiting for your song with a finger hovering above the record button. Ya, it all had tons of value and stuck with me too. Different times for sure. 

Well, guess I’ll go back to youtube and sift through tons of free music until I find something that entertains me.

Are You Not Entertained? #Gladiator – YouTube

nikoB
nikoB
Reply to  paqnation
June 28, 2024 4:10 pm

Cassettes for video and audio was where my pirate days began. To the video store and local library then back to the linked vhs’s at home and the double cassette deck.

paqnation
Reply to  nikoB
June 28, 2024 6:02 pm

The double cassette boombox was a big deal. Everyone on my block seemed to get one at the same Christmas. Suddenly the streets were filled with kids walking around with a big ghetto blaster on their shoulder. 😊 

Another thing I just remembered was how some tapes/cd’s would come with the lyrics for every song. I was always bummed when the lyrics were not provided. 

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 6:05 pm

LOL. Just like the way people used to have more uniqueness, the cars did too. I bet everyone in your neighborhood knew it was you when they saw the lime green machine rolling down the street. 😊

My first car was in ’93. 1980 Chevy Monte Carlo with white wall tires. The prize customization for me was the Kenwood pullout cd deck. We used to actually think we were cool lugging around a stereo deck at school all day.

But ya, the biggest game changer had to be when you could finally play your music in your car and did not have to rely on the stupid radio. I remember my dad talking about how cool this was and how you were a nobody until you had an 8 track or cassette player in your car.

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 7:34 pm

Still in a nostalgic mood. This is my favorite video on the internet when it comes to yearning for my childhood. If you were alive during the 80’s, you’ll probably like it.

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 8:20 pm

Hell yeah! Those were great. The editing and syncing up with the music is so impressive. And the time it must take. 

Liked the old movies one the best. But the first video has a couple of hilarious parts. At the 1:47 mark it looks like Leslie Nielsen doing Travolta’s Pulp Fiction dance. Never seen that before. I’m betting it’s from Naked Gun part 3. And then the 3:01 mark is even funnier. I don’t know that movie either.

Hamish McGregor
Reply to  paqnation
June 28, 2024 9:20 pm

3.01 is from the 1997 British comedy the The Full Monty

paqnation
Reply to  Hamish McGregor
June 28, 2024 9:52 pm

Thanks. After checking out some reviews looks like I’ve got a movie worth trying.

CampbellS
Reply to  paqnation
June 28, 2024 10:32 pm

So good. Remember every single clip.

nikoB
nikoB
Reply to  paqnation
June 29, 2024 12:16 am

I know most.Thanks

Hamish McGregor
Reply to  paqnation
June 28, 2024 1:34 am

Great video.

“Don’t look at your phone, or as I call it, the thought deletion device.”

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 28, 2024 6:55 am

Efficient but brittle.

Kira
Kira
June 27, 2024 7:04 am

Videos like these are always fascinating to watch if you want to turbo charge your denial circuits and feel optimistic. I can’t believe there was a time when I used to revere this guy and believe his predictions. He is a big shot in the tech community who is highly respected.

So according to him we are few years away from AGI and then its on to the stars from there on. A bunch of doomers on some remote corner of the internet believe civilization is going to crash hard within the next few decades. I wonder who to take seriously.

Hamish McGregor
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 27, 2024 12:02 pm

Ray Kurzweil : Holds up a “smart” phone and claims “that makes us more intelligent”.

All of the evidence contradicts him. The phone is obviously much more than just a phone. More properly, it is an immensely powerful, battery-operated, computer – that enables high quality digital photography, portable media player, flashlight, phone, texting, secure messaging, navigation, calendar and more. It also fits in your pocket and runs for days. Practically the stuff that was science fiction two decades ago.

If anything it has made people dumb, with no need to be able to read a map, remember things, or attempt to actually develop an understanding of life’s issues. It has largely destroyed normal social interaction and the innate social intelligence required. For some people, losing their phone is akin to losing a limb.

Charles
Charles
Reply to  Hamish McGregor
June 27, 2024 11:23 pm

Yes. To me, the whole industrial civilisation enterprise is the production of crutches for masses of people who don’t need them. Debilitating.

To me, the worse aspect of the phone is the mental addiction: the immediate feedback loop it creates between mental obsession and pleasure center.

Kira
Kira
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 27, 2024 8:18 pm

I used to think that MORT is probably wrong and all that is needed is exposure to right information and a lack of investment in the survival of civilization which will allow that information in. My reason for thinking so was simple- If it was so easy for an average individual like me then it should be easy for anyone provided the latter two conditions are met.

Now I think denial may be like a mountain with awakening on the other side and varying gradients depending on each individual. Information is your horse and investments are obstacles. You may lose your way and tumble back down but if you persist you can reach the other side and see the truth.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Kira
June 27, 2024 12:48 pm

Thanks for the memories.

I read Kurzweil’s book on the Singularity some 20+ years ago and was a firm believer for a couple of years. When nothing happened (as far as nanotechnology) I started to have doubts. Soon thereafter I came across Guy McPherson and figured we were going to overshoot planetary carrying capacity and became a doomer.

AJ

paqnation
June 26, 2024 4:33 pm

I’m still hung up on Campbell’s coming out party. I watch that 12min video of his family every day. Never fails to put me in a good mood.

Last night I watched a movie called Sliding Doors (starring Gwyneth Paltrow). The film alternates between two storylines, showing two paths the main character’s life could take depending on whether she catches a train. I kept thinking about Campbell during the movie. He is my Sliding Doors. 

I was reflecting on a few decisions I made in my younger days that completely changed my life. The main one revolves around me turning away a person who would have had a tremendous positive impact on me. Instead, I embraced a relationship with someone who had a horribly negative impact on me. I mean you could not choose the more incorrect path if you tried.

Not that I think I would have had Campbell’s life if a few decisions went the other way. Like living in New Zealand driving around in little miss sunshine 😊.  No, I just think I would have had a family, and been more of a nature loving outdoorsman. She was very family orientated and a total hippie tree hugger. My vainness and shallow appetite chose the girl with supermodel looks and not a caring bone in her body (and when I say “supermodel” I dont mean it in a complimentary way. More in a fake Barbie doll way. Gross!!!). By the time I woke up, it was too late, tree hugger was happily married with kids.

Supermodel never really loved me. Tree hugger loved me more than I will ever experience again in my lifetime. Incredibly, that is one of the main reasons things turned out as they did. I always had a problem with the balance of love. If you like me too much, I’ll end up liking you less. If you dont love me (and if you are a little cruel to me), I will end up falling head over heels for you. What a fucked-up way of doing things!

So crazy how those little decisions in our life have such a lasting effect. It reminds me of humans and technology. In Mesopotamia there is no way I would have said no to the plow when it was invented. Five thousand years later and it’s easy to see what a crucial mistake it was.

p.s. Sorry if this post is weird but it’s 110F outside and 89F inside because our A/C is having issues. I think I might be losing my mind due to wet-bulb syndrome. Gonna get a motel room tonight if the A/C is not fixed soon.

monk
monk
Reply to  paqnation
June 26, 2024 7:25 pm

I am truly sorry for your loss of what could have been. How I wish everyone was taught to work through their childhood wounds before making important life decisions in love and marriage. So much of being attracted to the wrong thing/person stems from something in our childhood, particularly in how our parents loved or didn’t love us.

paqnation
Reply to  monk
June 26, 2024 9:27 pm

Thanks monk. Your words are so true. When I got into Robert Sapolsky and Gabor Mate, they made me see how important every little thing from your childhood is (including the stress level of your mom while she’s pregnant with you). And how you can’t just go blaming your parents for your baggage because they probably had their share of trauma when they were children. And so on and so on. Such a delicate balance to “get it right”. 

If I had kids, my main goal would be to have a strong support system within the family. Over here in USA, it’s very common for siblings to be rivals and hate one another. My brother and I had that growing up, and all of my friends did as well. I only knew of one brother and sister who were actually tight (and they were twins so that doesn’t really count 😊). Would like to think I could buck that trend with my kids.

Also, I would encourage emotions and feelings. After I ask my kids how their day at school was, I would not allow a one-word answer (like I used to give to my mom). Actually, I would want to be home-schooling them. And cell phones… forget it, not allowed. Oh man, I would be a monster in their eyes. LOL. Good parenting has probably never been more difficult than it is right now in our current digital age. 

p.s. It got up to 92F in the house (and thats with 4 ceiling fans and 5 standing fans on high with ice cold water towels from freezer). A/C is pumping like brand new now (knock on wood). All is right in my world (except the fact that its 104 outside right now at 930pm).

Our thermostat is set at 77 all the time. At 85 it was getting very very uncomfortable. What a soft sapien I’ve turned into. Can’t handle an 8 degree bump. I can definitely handle a bigger bump in the opposite direction. In winter we keep it at 68F. But if it was up to me, I’d have it set around 50.

monk
monk
Reply to  paqnation
June 27, 2024 7:13 pm

If I have kids, I will be a pretty strict parent as well. I know Gaia said it has been cold in Australia, but we have been having a very warm winter. Next year is the solar maximum, plus it has been El Nino. But I feel so concerned about if we are reaching a new baseline that’s hotter, with climate change. It’s scary noticing a difference in real life

Charles
Charles
Reply to  paqnation
June 27, 2024 12:11 am

Habits, here cultural ones, can be stronger than feelings (not in the sense of emotions, but just what is felt). Our pleasure/pain dashboard is here for a reason.

About the temperature: time to lose weight, dig underground shelter, harvest water, plant trees… Forget the air conditioning.

You don’t do it now, it’s your choice. Ultimately, it means choosing death or migration. That’s OK too. Just know what you are choosing, in full conscience.

🙂

I forgot where you live exactly in the US, but trees can grow in more places than we think: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_greening, https://www.editionsfavre.com/livres/regreening-the-sahara/, https://reverdirlesahara.org/,

.

paqnation
Reply to  Charles
June 27, 2024 3:18 pm

Good advice Charles. And yes I am fully conscience for the only real choice that matters: Nitrogen or Helium?

I’m so far away from digging an underground shelter in order to survive that I’m almost offended you suggested it 😊. My plan for nuclear war, migration, water issues, grid failure, etc is one month of survival. (only 2-3 days max if electric grid goes down during summer). The perfect amount of time to appreciate the moment and prepare for the end. 

I’m at true acceptance with this plan. I know I can carry it out. And I know I won’t crack under pressure. I think that’s why my tone lately is even darker than usual. Like an actor getting too deep into character (Heath Ledger’s Joker), I’ve been too focused on the plan because I think it’s coming soon. I need to balance that out with appreciating the “Peak” while it’s still here.

I’m at a point now where I see humanity the same as I see colonialism, nazism, or any other ism. Yes, if you look hard enough you will find plenty of good, but it’s all saturated in immense evil. (Hamish’s breakdown of the smart phone below is a good example of this). For the sake of Mother Earth, I am rooting for the extinction of humans. Even though it seems that after civilization crumbles, it will be impossible for sapiens to do any major damage to the environment. Just give it time, we will find a way, we always do.

My Nate Hagens magic wand would involve everybody doing the right thing, right now and opting out of life. But it’s the same concept as willful energy reduction, we’ll have to be forced into it. So when SHTF, I know I’ll be ready.

Charles
Charles
Reply to  paqnation
June 27, 2024 11:14 pm

Great 🙂

And I forgot to mention passive cooling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_cooling,

It is not my intent to offend you: my suggestions only reflects who I am 🙂 I have given up on this culture, but not on the continuation of life on this planet, and even not on humans. The dichotomy human vs. nature doesn’t make much sense to me. So I don’t really have remorse either. In simple times, it’s easy to deny the murky, messy nature of reality which is mirrored in our souls. We are not in simple times anymore.

Thank you. I enjoy this conversation.

paqnation
Reply to  Charles
June 28, 2024 3:08 am

Hey Charles. I know you do not intend to offend. I love when you speak up. And your good at making me think. 

I’m glad you’re ok with us not being on the same page here. I am going full dark on humans because it’s easy for me to get lured back into the trap of “we’ll break the cycle”. The new kick I’m on about energy constraints is helping to yes simplify things, but also just clicking. 

No way to keep it light (like permaculture only) when you finally break through with agriculture. The universal rule seems to be a never-ending desire to increase EROEI. And no way to stop the built in worldviews of separatism and superiority from constantly getting stronger over time as you get more efficient. And no way for this to play out and not have tremendous negative effects on all life forms and Mother Earth.

Fossil fuels are just the final solution for anyone who gets this far with agr. No way to be using the ancient sunlight shortly after breaking through with the current sunlight. Few thousand years minimum.

The first contraint of fire is what gets it all started. One or two million years seems like we took longer than the average fire to agr moment. But I could also believe that the road to the “Peak” for any other lucky planets out there is in the ballpark with our trajectory. 1,000,000 / 12,000 / 200

“It cant go any other way” which I hated about MPP, makes sense now. And yes, live for the now and the good in the world, but no. Not when the evil far outweighs the good. That person needs to go. There’s a perfect equilibrium for the diversity of life thriving on a planet and it does not involve breaking sacred energy constraints. Sooner we go, sooner life finds that perfect balance.    

If my ramblings sound like a depressed person who needs help, or a tough guy projecting his fear. I assure you I am neither. 😊 Just a new focus and like I said, it’s clicking for me.

And thank you, I enjoy this conversation too. 

Charles
Charles
Reply to  paqnation
June 28, 2024 11:14 pm

Yes, I understand.

I have come to accept:

  • different people can hold even radically distinct world views,
  • some of which I can understand (like yours), some I can’t, yet it doesn’t make them any less valid,
  • some of which I can experimentally validate, some I can’t, yet it doesn’t make them any less valid,
  • it is not given to me to understand many things of this world,
  • my world view is not necessarily correct.

Ultimately, the description of reality (Truth) one ascribes to does not matter much: as long as it clicks for oneself, as long as the shoe fits, “you will know them by their fruits”. In a way, we are all movie makers of our lives: we can not choose the scene, but have ultimate freedom on framing.

In the future, I might again overlook who you chose to be, how things came to be framed for you, bear with me 🙂

paqnation
Reply to  Charles
June 29, 2024 2:39 pm

Your wise words remind me of this scene from the great classic Big Trouble in Little China.

Jack: What you? I dont get this at all, I thought Lo Pan…

Lo Pan: Shut up Mr Burton, you are not brought upon this world to “get it”.

Shut up Mr Burton (youtube.com)

Charles
Charles
Reply to  paqnation
June 29, 2024 3:48 pm

Ah ah ah.

Nice succinct summary of the philosophy I currently adhere to.

Thank you.

CampbellS
Reply to  paqnation
June 27, 2024 2:00 pm

I understand the sliding doors analogy. I was the sports jock whose true self chose the hippy tree hugging artist who didn’t know the rules of rugby. We’ve traversed the road somewhat less travelled. It has been a roller coaster because the sports jock part of me who wants to fit in and look good to his peers has tried to undermine that choice at times. It’s only in the last few years I have finally been able to leave him behind completely. Nikki is indeed a saint for putting up with me and helping keep us on course towards this awesome life we have today.

In making the choice I’ve let go of quite a few friendships and a lot of potential income but I don’t regret it for a second. I totally agree with Monks comment. I was lucky enough to find a space to deal with some childhood stuff and be at peace with my parents just prior to meeting Nikki. If I hadn’t then…. the door would probably slid open to another path.

I’m glad our video gives you good vibes. I really enjoy and appreciate your presence here Chris. Have a great day.

paqnation
Reply to  CampbellS
June 28, 2024 2:51 pm

Thanks Campbell. I should have known you used to be a dumb sports jock. 😊. Me too. Baseball was my thing. I was really good in high school, but not good enough for college, not even community college. 

But you were playing the toughest of the tough. Of all the different team sports, rugby is by far the most violent. I used to enjoy watching it, but I am too squeamish nowadays.

Glad you were able to leave the sports jock part of you behind. Same with me. I used to be so concerned about winning/losing. Even if we went bowling for fun, I would ruin it for everyone because of my competitiveness. Such an exhausting way to live life!

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 26, 2024 10:36 pm

The question isn’t “how do we replace fossil fuels?”, but “how do we soften the landing as fossil fuels deplete?”

paqnation
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 27, 2024 2:44 pm

Thanks Rob, for always plucking the good stuff from POB.

I just spent over an hour lurking around on that site. People are asking Dennis questions like he has credibility. Aren’t they reading Hideaways gold? Funny if Hide is a pain in the ass over there and most dislike him because he’s too dark for their MORTness. Or maybe it’s just dumb blind loyalty to their leader Dennis. But if they’re pretty well versed with overshoot & collapse, MORT would have to be what it’s all about. They just can’t let go of that final (but huge) piece of the journey called hopium. 

Maybe you’re right about our denial genes being defective and your audience being mostly made up of the few freaks on earth (maybe universe) who can actually handle the top of the collapse mountain with the crazy info about how horrific, hopeless, and inevitable it’s gonna be.

Stellarwind72
June 25, 2024 2:32 pm

https://www.dw.com/en/greece-introduces-the-six-day-work-week/a-69439050
Greece wants to deal with worker shortage by introducing a 6-day workweek. That will certainly boost birthrates! (sarcasm should be obvious).

monk
monk
Reply to  Stellarwind72
June 25, 2024 2:37 pm

It’s always the plebs fault isn’t it! Never the capital class that has to give up something or do something different

paqnation
June 25, 2024 1:15 pm

Sarah Connor went the guest essay route this week. Prior to un-Denial, I would have loved and been inspired by it. But now all I see is another Daniel Quinn fan who is blinded by the hopium of humans “getting it right”. The tag line of the article is: Humanity is acting like a disease. But humanity isn’t a disease; humanity has a disease.

Same thing as me crying about how humans aren’t a failed experiment, it’s our culture that is the failure. LOL. Funny how much (and how quickly) I have changed on this issue. The Quinn view is dangerous because it implies that humans can get it right even if sacred energy constraints have been broken. Also implies that there is some good or purpose for complex intelligence. Both implications are dead wrong of course. 

The author’s main point in the article is “I would like to propose that the disease is a certain idea that humanity began to embrace 6,000 years ago. It’s the idea that humanity is separate from and superior to nature and other forms of life.”

We were already thousands of years embraced with breaking the solar energy constraints. Those separation & superior worldviews that come attached to the hip of “busting through” were already brewing hardcore by then. The better you get at performing evil (agriculture, mining & domestication) the more entrenched those worldviews become which means you get a guaranteed exponential increase of evil over time.

The only reason we got to agriculture was because we conquered fire. So not even fire is an acceptable energy constraint to break. (which is hard to imagine, but certainly correct when compared to how many other species have used it and how much of an advantage it gives you). 

The author’s last line annoys the hell out of me because of how much I used to buy into it. “The good news is that there’s a cure. If the disease is separateness, then the cure is to end the separateness.” 

Humans are the disease. Including hunter gatherers. The only human not diseased is pre-fire homo. The pro-Quinners need to do a better job of explaining what they mean when they say, “the cure is to end the separateness”.

To truly end the separateness, you’d have to go back to pre-fire times and live with a max EROEI around 1.5 (quinn fans always leave this part of the equation out of their story).

Guest Post: What’s Our Disease? (collapse2050.com)

monk
monk
Reply to  paqnation
June 25, 2024 2:35 pm

I understand love and light solutions from people who have never had to get their sustenance from the land directly can be annoying. But do you need to be so harsh on humans?

The first life on earth, Cyanobacteria (bluegreen algae), grew in such abundance when it evolved a new oxygen-releasing ability. They feasted and turned the earth into a frozen ice ball. Scientists suppose that a thin line around the equator stayed warm enough to allow some cyanobacteria to survive. From those survivors, all life on earth evolved.

paqnation
Reply to  monk
June 25, 2024 3:55 pm

LOL. Sorry for being such a scrooge but yes I do need to be so harsh.

I can’t stand the fairy tale that I was sold. It reminds me of Nazis sitting around talking about the few decent qualities they possess and equating that to being an overall good person.

Stellarwind72
Reply to  paqnation
June 25, 2024 6:49 pm

I have raised this point before, but is it possible that humans are too clever for our own good?

paqnation
Reply to  Stellarwind72
June 25, 2024 7:58 pm

I think too clever for your own good is another feature that’s baked into the cake of busting through an energy constraint. We know the worldviews that automatically come with the energy breakthrough, so there is an added bonus that the extra time you free up with the higher EROEI will be dominated by separation and superiority thinking. 

And this just guarantees that you will be a walking tsunami of bad information. To the point where when you finally get to anything like modern human EROEI levels everything you do and how you do it is wrong (evil).

Stellarwind72
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 25, 2024 1:55 pm

The semiconductor industry has placed most of its eggs in one basket, because only 3 companies can to afford the manufacture the most advanced chips: TSMC, Intel and Samsung. The costs of building new fabs (and therefore chips) is rising quickly. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/firm-predicts-it-will-cost-dollar28-billion-to-build-a-2nm-fab-and-dollar30000-per-wafer-a-50-percent-increase-in-chipmaking-costs-as-complexity-rises

This is evidence of semiconductor scaling running into the law of diminishing returns.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 25, 2024 3:34 pm

Excellent discussion by Wilkerson. The U.S. is so screwed, militarily and economically. How we’ve survived this long I don’t know.

AJ

monk
monk
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 25, 2024 2:48 pm

In New Zealand you would literally get fired if you didn’t follow orders. So the Nuremburg Code creates a paradox – any doctor that doesn’t follow orders gets de-registered and then can’t be a doctor.

nikoB
nikoB
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 25, 2024 7:48 pm

Cancer is the other big lie that medicine and pharma are intent on keeping going because it makes money.

They don’t want it known that it is a metabolic dysfunction of the mitochrondria and the genetic mutations are a secondary side effect. Thus treating it as a genetic disease is not a good strategy even though it does yield results.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 25, 2024 1:06 pm

Sorry Rob, I don’t know how to take off my “Like” for the above article (I hit the wrong key instead of hitting reply.

This “article” is the quintessential example IMHO of what makes many things on the internet suspect. I for one believe that vaccines are efficacious (at least the ones I had as a kid were) and would not want to not have a tetanus shot up to date (or smallpox for that matter). Maybe all the vaccines that kids get now days are overdone and should be investigated for adjuvants that are causing unintended consequences (i.e. there is room for serious research).

However, if you look at the article it appears light on the science of immunology/virology and heavy on “statistics” (which can be made to show anything). I don’t have the time to read the dross such idiots produce (a true conspiracy theory) but I did appreciate his/her numerous citations. When you are citing to Zero Hedge, Mises institute, Expose News, Brownstone, Off Guardian, Viroliegy.com, and other web sites rather than the fundamental scientific literature, everything you (the author) say is suspect. I realize that much of “science” has been subverted by Pharma/Medicine and current Scientific Journals, but true rational falsifiable science still exists and their are some practitioners.

If someone like Dr. John Campbell came out and said this I might listen a little more closely, but not to someone hiding behind “Endurance”.

AJ

Hamish McGregor
Reply to  AJ
June 25, 2024 2:07 pm

I’ve also accidentally clicked like (in the past) and found that clicking it again did the opposite. Of course, things are always changing, so that might just be a thing of the past.

Hamish McGregor
Reply to  Hamish McGregor
June 25, 2024 2:14 pm

First click can be on the literal or asterisk, second has to be on the asterisk.

monk
monk
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 25, 2024 2:58 pm

I can confirm the person can unclick their own like. I have a lot of experience with this hahaha

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
June 25, 2024 2:59 pm

I have such problems on your website with WordPress, hence the only time I read un-denial is when I’m on Chrome, otherwise I use the Epic browser (behind their free VPN) and I leave no trail. (I hate the Chrome browser but WordPress will let me post something without logging in ). WordPress hates me everywhere and won’t let me log into the multiple accounts, I have made with them over the years.

I read some of what Endurance wrote, and I didn’t buy much of it from what I knew having taken immunology years ago. He cites statistics and studies without discussing basic immunology, in my opinion. Hence, I go to his long list of citations at the end of the article to see if he is really quoting science. He is not!! IF 90% of your sources are dubious, as I put in my response above, then you are dubious as a writer and I don’t see any sense in trying to parse the little bit of wheat from the vast chaff.

I would never read anything from Endurance, or even skim it. What time I have left is too valuable.

AJ

scarr0w
scarr0w
June 24, 2024 7:28 pm


Well, been rather busy lately, so just now trying to pitch in, but collapse waits for no man……….

My journey to tranquility ( 🙂 ) is as follows:

I’ve known for as long as I have memory that I was “different”. Not exactly on the spectrum, not genius, not sociopath, but maybe a dash of each. I was in parochial school my first four years, and it was not a good fit for me. To get along, one should just fill in the answer blanks in your Baltimore Catechism workbook, not ask the nun to explain grace. Questioning the pablum we are spoon fed is not a way to be one of the gang.

Anyway, from childhood experiences, I over time built a mental outlook that more or less has evolved to be expressed best by the Niebuhr/Wygal serenity prayer. I generally kept my own council, especially when I fully realized the overshoot predicament we are in while working for a company that builds stuff for the fossil industry. I guess you could say I was “in the closet”.

Serenity, or at least equanimity is not an easy thing to maintain all the time, but I’ve gotten better over time. Raising kids, staying on the treadmill even after realizing that’s what it is, etc… can test your resolve. While I follow collapse progress and analysis at sites like Rob’s and several others, it is more to keep current, not to perseverate on (and let’s face it, being witness to this huge event in the human story is fascinating). Mostly I am grateful that I was lucky enough to be born in a location and time that will never be again.

Currently, some mental energy is on local political issues (I’m on the county board, trying to see opportunities to shift policy into more future ready states), but primarily I try to slowly make a few acres of land more in tune with what the local biome wants to be. That will be enough.

I liked a lot of what others said, especially Gaia, but since my emotion circuits were partly burnt out as a kid, I just don’t get wound up over the path out culture has chosen or my role in it. I know others suffer and indirectly I benefit, those of us aware just have to live with a foot in both worlds, slowly reducing our complicity as best we can. Not much help for others, but that’s where I am.