By Bill Rees: On the Virtues of Self-Delusion—or maybe not!

Dr. Bill Rees, Professor Emeritus from the University of British Columbia, gave a presentation on our overshoot predicament earlier this month to a zoom meeting of the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome (CACOR).

I’m a longtime fan of Dr. Rees and consider him to be one of the most aware and knowledgeable people on the planet.

This is, I believe, the best talk I’ve seen by Dr. Rees and he covers all of the important issues, including topics like overpopulation that most of his peers avoid.

Presentations like this will probably not change our trajectory but nevertheless I find some comfort knowing there are a few other people thinking about the same issues. This can be a very lonely space.

The Q&A is also very good. I found it interesting to hear how much effort Dr. Rees has made to educate our leaders about what we should be doing to reduce future suffering. He was frank that no one to date, including the Green party, is open to his message. Not surprising, but sad. Also inspiring that someone of his stature is at least trying.

Summary

Climate-change and other environmental organizations urge governments to act decisively/rapidly to decarbonize the economy and halt further development of fossil fuel reserves. These demands arguably betray:

– ignorance of the role of energy in the modern economy;

– ill-justified confidence in society’s ability to transition to 100% green renewable energy;

– no appreciation of the ecological consequences of attempting to do so and;

– little understanding of the social implications.

Without questioning the need to abandon fossil fuels, I will argue that the dream of a smooth energy transition is little more than a comforting shared illusion. Moreover, even if it were possible it would not solve climate change and would exacerbate the real existential threat facing society, namely overshoot.

I then explore some of the consequences and implications of (the necessary) abandonment of fossil fuels in the absence of adequate substitutes, and how governments and MTI society should be responding to these unspoken biophysical realities.

Biography

Dr. William Rees is a population ecologist, ecological economist, Professor Emeritus, and former Director of the University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning.

His academic research focuses on the biophysical prerequisites for sustainability. This focus led to co-development (with his graduate students) of ecological footprint analysis, a quantitative tool that shows definitively that the human enterprise is in dysfunctional overshoot. (We would need five Earth-like planets to support just the present world population sustainably with existing technologies at North American material standards.)

Frustrated by political unresponsiveness to worsening indicators, Dr. Rees also studies the biological and psycho-cognitive barriers to environmentally rational behavior and policies. He has authored hundreds of peer reviewed and popular articles on these topics. Dr. Rees is a Fellow of Royal Society of Canada and also a Fellow of the Post-Carbon Institute; a founding member and former President of the Canadian Society for Ecological Economics; a founding Director of the OneEarth Initiative; and a Director of The Real Green New Deal. He was a full member of the Club of Rome from 2013 until 2018. His international awards include the Boulding Memorial Award in Ecological Economics, the Herman Daly Award in Ecological Economics and a Blue Planet Prize (jointly with his former student, Dr. Mathis Wackernagel).

I left the following comment on YouTube:

I’m a fellow British Columbian and longtime admirer of Dr. Rees. Thank you for the excellent presentation.

I agree with Dr. Rees’ prescription for what needs to be done but I think there’s a step that must precede his first step of acknowledging our overshoot predicament.

Given the magnitude and many dimensions of our predicament an obvious question is why do so few people see it?

I found a theory by Dr. Ajit Varki that provides a plausible explanation, and answers other important questions about our unique species.

The Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory posits that the human species with its uniquely powerful intelligence exists because it evolved to deny unpleasant realities.

If true, this implies that the first step to any positive meaningful change must be to acknowledge our tendency to deny unpleasant realities.

Varki explains his theory here:

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-25466-7_6

A nice video summary by Varki is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgYqW2Kgkg

My interpretations of the theory are here:
https://un-denial.com/denial-2/theory-short/

https://un-denial.com/2015/11/12/undenial-manifesto-energy-and-denial/

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Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 4, 2022 12:21 am

I thought that the war against Covid is now officially over as we transition seamlessly to the war against Russia…

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 4, 2022 12:19 am

Too bad, that our landlord has cut down a lot of trees on our plot before we moved in. They could have been useful soon.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 4, 2022 12:17 am

Gasoline prices in Germany are approaching the 2€ barrier. I have never seen such a high price for gasoline before. Before the pandemic, we had prices around 1,30€. After an initial crash to 1,10€ at the start of the pandemic, when oil demand slumped, we had a relatively stable price aroung 1,50€ during most of the last year. This is really worrying.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 4, 2022 1:45 am

Heating Oil is even worse. At the end of 2020 I bought heating oil for 0,40€ per Liter, at the end of last year, we were already at 0,80€ per Liter. Today, the average price is 1,40€ per Liter. So, while gasoline prices increased by a factor of 1,3 since last fall, we have an increase by a factor of 1,75 for heating oil since last fall.

I am not sure about natural gas, but the cancelling of Nordstream 2 due to the Russian/Ukrainian war does not bode well for Gas prices in Germany.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 3, 2022 5:10 am

I didn’t think the simulation was realistic. With this amount of nuclear exchange, IMHO you would have quite a few more deaths worldwide in 12 months than only 1/2 billion. I think it would be close to 8? This low figure of 1/2 billion deaths would probably be in a few days/weeks.
AJ

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 3, 2022 5:02 am

That was impressive. Even a few things from “civilization” would make this so much easier. No wonder natives took an interest in items (other than alcohol) that “traders” brought with them. I have no doubt that our ancestors, if any, will live more like this than like us.
AJ

Philip Parker
Philip Parker
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 2, 2022 1:33 pm

The scary thing is that our idiot leaders do not understand any of this

Hi Rob and all, what about Putin, do you think he gets it?

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 2, 2022 2:42 pm

I thought Gail did a good job of both Russia and energy and how they both underpin everything about our current world. I think there is more strategy to Putin (and understanding) than all of the U.S. political establishment combined (the Europeans don’t add one iota to that). Not to say that Putin is a genius but he seems to be a clearer more logical thinker than most in power. I doubt he sees collapse coming or even the causes.
If I knew how to cut out the chart Mac10 had today in his post I would. IT IS PERFECT for a world civilization in decline.
AJ

gwb
gwb
February 28, 2022 6:38 pm

This is an interesting, well-researched video on why Putin / Russia is in Ukraine. It dwells on the historical, geopolitical, economic and energy angles — it doesn’t justify the brutality of the Russian invasion, but tries to put the viewer in the mindset of the Russian policymaker. It seems to have gone viral, with over 5 million views and 17,000+ comments, and it has been up for less than a week.

MickN
MickN
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 1, 2022 5:55 am

Some weasel words regarding gas reserves in that report. In 2012 it was reported apparently that the Black Sea around Crimea “may” have large reserves and in Ukraine proper there may be “potential” shale gas hotspots.
Unless you’re the reserve currency printer and can waste money as you choose does shale gas ever make sense?-I don’t know.
See the great Polish shale gas find
https://www.dw.com/en/polish-shale-hits-the-rocks/a-19279069#:~:text=Poland%20is%20estimated%20to%20have%20between%20350%20billion,commercial%20quantities%2C%20and%20the%20prospects%20don%27t%20look%20good.
“The foreign pullout started when ConocoPhillips announced in July 2015 it was putting a halt to its shale gas exploration in Poland due to what it said were unsatisfactory results.
That basically left the rest of the field to Polish state-run firms – after Chevron, another US energy major, gave up looking for shale gas earlier in the year. Exxon Mobil, Total and Marathon Oil had already ceased their Polish shale-gas efforts over the previous three years.
ConocoPhillips said its subsidiary Lane Energy Poland had invested around $220 million (196 million euros) in Poland since 2009, drilling seven wells over its three Western Baltic concessions.
“Unfortunately, commercial volumes of natural gas were not encountered,” Tim Wallace, ConocoPhillips country manager in Poland, said.”
Or closer to home – Monterey shale from the always excellent Kurt Cobb
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2021/12/us-shale-oil-and-gas-forecast-too-good.html

Again it seems to me unlikely, to say the least, that there are many, if any, large fossil fuel deposits (except perhaps lignite) west of the Urals but I’m no expert.

Random
Random
February 28, 2022 2:07 pm

What happened to http://www.megacancer.com/ ? Anyone know

Random
Random
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 28, 2022 5:34 pm

So the site is dead for good right?

gwb
gwb
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 28, 2022 6:31 pm

James in late January commented on collapseofindustrialcivilization.com — it’s in the message string of xraymike’s latest post. James said he “ran out of quarters” for his “jukebox of doom”. Apparently, his family all came down with omicron. Sounds like megacancer.com is out of commission. I think Google has cached his old posts.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 28, 2022 5:17 am

Rob, I agree. Every blogger/pundit that I respect seems to think that the market is due for a crash. My personal opinion is they are probably right but markets are illogical. A war will be rationalized by the greedy until they are wiped out. Some of this comes from experience with losing money in the dot.com bubble when I was younger. Sooner or later it will pop, when is still a guess.
AJ

theblondbeast
theblondbeast
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 28, 2022 3:09 pm

Agreed.

Unfortunately it looks like the NATO block still intends to supply future munitions and arms. I’m not here to argue morally about whether fears about national security SHOULD entitle a nation to aggress, but it is OBVIOUS historically that such concerns DO lead nations to act in this manner. To ignore this is either disingenuous, stupid, or purposeful. We need a new “hat trick” to encompass all three – Stupid liars with bad ideas? I suggest: “Stupor-villains” – those who are both evil and incompetent!

lidiaseventeen
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 28, 2022 12:23 am

I think it needs to start several hundred years earlier.

gwb
gwb
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 24, 2022 1:35 pm

That’s about the size of it. We’ve been recklessly pushing NATO expansion, and crazy neocons like Victoria Nuland at the State Department have been whacking the hornet’s nest in Ukraine since 2014.

This video is dated, and is NSFW in a big way, but it is funny as hell, and tells a lot about the Russian outlook. It was done in 2002, on the eve of the Bush administration going in to Iraq. Vladimir Zhirinovsky is holding forth at a drunken house party, with a message for Bush. Zhirinovsky is a Russian politician widely viewed as a crackpot, but he has been around since the 1990s, riding largely on the public backlash in Russia at the way it was treated after the Soviet Union collapsed, with foreign carpetbagging bottom-feeders setting up shop and ivory-tower fatheads like Larry Summers pushing economic shock therapy and privatization. Turn up the volume, especially if you know some Russian.

gwb
gwb
Reply to  gwb
February 24, 2022 1:38 pm

Oh, don’t forget to activate English subheads

Brent Ragsdale
Brent Ragsdale
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
March 25, 2022 8:41 am

The Radio Ecoshock interview was a shorten version of my interview with Tom Murphy and Melody LeHew for Eco Radio KC. https://kkfi.org/program-episodes/resource-usage-today-impacts-our-future-quality-of-life/

I also heard Nate Hagens say he had interview Tom Murphy, presumably for Nate’s new podcast. That will likely put my interview to shame.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 23, 2022 2:31 pm

Rob,
I still have a problem with masks. Way back at the start of the pandemic, Chris Martenson pushed masks with the argument that they did not protect the wearer for Covid but protected everyone else from a mask wearer (who had C0vid) spreading (aerosol) viral particles to other people (the uninfected). Hence, if everyone wore masks it would decrease spread. Then I quit paying attention. I know at first, the MSM and the “experts” went on a campaign first to tell people masks were ineffective (when they were not available) and then that they were effective (when they became available). I think the MSM and “experts” are/were saying that the proper mask prevented the user from getting viral particles. That is the current view? Which is wrong? Correct? Has Martenson’s initial view been dismissed or was it wrong?
AJ

lidiaseventeen
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 24, 2022 3:51 pm

Masks are not necessary at all in health settings (I mean, maybe you might not want the dentist inadvertently coughing into your open mouth, just out of general ickiness, but..).

“Is a mask necessary in the operating theatre?

“Summary: No masks were worn in one operating theatre for 6 months. There was no increase in the incidence of wound infection.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2493952/?page=1

Early on in the covid fiasco, I came across an image of a printed letter to the editor of a newspaper somewhere in Britain. The authors were two surgeons who, along with their staff, never wore masks at all in their private practice. Wish I had kept that image.

lidiaseventeen
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 24, 2022 4:03 pm

In 2020, I tried to share what was a recently-published article in the New England Journal of Medicine on a local bulletin board (it’s called Front Porch Forum, but there are others, like NextDoor). My post got censored. I tried to resend it again more recently, since they still want kids to remain masked here, but again it was censored. I wasn’t polemical; I merely offered that the NEJM article stated, “We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection.” Too lazy to look for the link but it’s May 2020.

lidiaseventeen
Reply to  AJ
February 24, 2022 4:09 pm

Check out Steve Kirsch’s substack. I think he has a compilation of mask studies on there. They’re useless.
They need to keep the masking going because of the pyschological effects it causes: prolonging the fake ‘pandemic’/emergency.

I know that I am viscerally repulsed by mask-wearers. My neurons keep firing “something is wrong! something is wrong!” and it is impossible for me to relax. I talked to a pro-masker and she said seeing everyone in a mask made her feel good. It made her feel safe! I just find that so hard to believe…

lidiaseventeen
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 25, 2022 12:14 am

Ah.. unlikely to be important. Thanks for being so conscientious, though.

Pete123
Pete123
Reply to  lidiaseventeen
February 25, 2022 10:34 am

Wearing masks and getting jabbed are popular with the herd because following mainstream protocol is so much easier than actually exercising and losing weight. The lack of self-respect among the overweight/obese can be counted on by the puppet masters. What do I find viscerally repulsive? Breeders, especially the fat ones.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 23, 2022 1:28 pm

The same tunnel vision seems to be the problem with Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker (https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker).
He understands quite a lot about Covid and the vaxes and is equally knowledgeable about the market and economy. He’s kinda middle of the road (slightly right) on politics (in the U.S.) but knows nothing of collapse, overshoot and how climate is warming as a result of civilization. It gets old reading some of it and having to separate so much chafe from the wheat.
AJ

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 23, 2022 7:11 am

I read this and don’t know what to think. In the least harmful scenario this just shows that Moderna had something to do with the creation of SARS COV 2(or it was inadvertently out in by the Wuhan lab). At the worst scenario this could be devised to kill a lot of people by cancer?
AJ

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 22, 2022 12:22 pm

Well f123 me. It was researchers from the The University of Melbourne who took a look at the report and concluded it seemed to be on track.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

Maybe you should scrap my previous post? I could probably provide some entertainment though in my self corrections.

monkmil
February 21, 2022 2:44 pm

Sorry I just need somewhere to rant. Here’s an example of the quality of thinking from the intelligentsia in NZ. A NZ politician pulled covid case numbers from our Ministry of Health that showed vaccinated people are getting covid at the same rate as the unvaccinated (I can’t vouch for if his work is good or not). A couple of “experts” (epidemiologists with a track record of failed predications) got annoyed about it. Rather than saying what the politician did wrong with his numbers, they go off on all these tangents. There’s just so much hypocrisy I can barely fathom it all. But to sum up: they are trying to convince us their science is right by using ideology, rather than you know actual science… and they tell us to put our faith in institutions that have a demonstrable track record of failure.

Original numbers run by the politician (he also provided a spreadsheet so you can check his work):
In the eight days from Friday 11-Friday 18, when Omicron cases really took off, there were 347 new unvaccinated cases, 140 new partially vaccinated cases, and 7,085 new fully vaccinated cases. These figures are not reported transparently, and have to be derived from the Ministry of Health Website. Of course, there are far more vaccinated than unvaccinated people, so the raw numbers do not tell the full story. For every 100,000 unvaccinated persons, 225 tested positive. For every 100,000 partially vaccinated persons, 204 tested positive, and for every 100,000 fully vaccinated 178 persons tested positive. (N.B., updated to include Saturday’s cases, these numbers are now 267, 220, and 224).
All of this leads to a simple conclusion. If there is little difference in the rates of infection and spread of Omicron between vaccinated and unvaccinated people, then what is the point of segregating them? From the opposite perspective, if segregation is increasingly costly and undesirable, what sort of difference in infection rates would we require to justify it, and is the difference between 178/100,000 and 225/100,000 enough?

Article with the grumpy experts: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-experts-dismiss-seymours-claim-vax-rate-making-little-difference/CWMSRGXE35XT4BRIJXMRYESX5M/

Another ‘expert’ has an opinion (notice how she never argues for actually making the Ministry data public or demonstrating why the numbers are wrong. I agree with her failure in science is fine, but the question is why do companies/institutions cover up their failures?):
I’ve generally kept pretty quiet publicly on my thoughts about covid, however, one thing I see as an increasingly serious problem to society is the assumption that all opinions are of equal merit, the gross underestimation of the value of experts, and the perception that many people are doing their own “research”. Opinions such as in the attached article are dangerous.
My first degree was in maths, and my takeaway message from this is that it’s genuinely hard. Certainly not something you can do with basic arithmetic. I wouldn’t even attempt to try to solve such a problem without even knowing what the assumptions are, I know it’s well beyond my scope so I recognise that and listen to the real experts.
Similarly, when people say they’ve done their research, when what they mean is that they’ve reviewed someone else’s content on the internet, that may not be peer reviewed, that will certainly be biased on search terms and search engine algorithms that rank information according to what’s popular & what’s in line you’ve already looked at, as well as cherry picking & confirmation bias. This is not research. Genuine research takes years to learn, requires extensive facilities & teams and is up for constant challenge and change. This is why I will always choose to listen to organisations such as the CDC, WHO or MoH who have access to tested information.
When people think science doesn’t work well because it has got things wrong in the past – they should know that is exactly why it does work well, precisely because it doesn’t hold onto preconceived or historic ideas.
When we don’t listen to experts, what we’re saying is that we don’t value evidence, that it’s worth no more than opinions.
If we don’t get these things right, we fail to think critically and the end result is that the most vulnerable are the most compromised. As a society, we must do better.

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 21, 2022 8:46 pm

It’s not easy making predictions in complex systems although the MIT researchers in their LtG report did a decent job IMO. PredictIt is an online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. It takes bets on near term events with clear winners and losers. I wonder if such an exchange could be used to predict key environmental tipping points or milestones like the predicted Blue Ocean Event? Or the date for when we hit 450 ppm c02? Or achievement of the SPARC fusion project at the MIT lab? Maybe some ppl would be foolish enough to bet against global warming events. You could even have several different betting pools on the effectiveness of vaccines and dying from Covid. It’s an interesting if somewhat gruesome thought. Anyone have any suggestions on how such an exchange might work? Maybe those kind of betting market feedbacks would inform decision makers for the better.

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Mandrake
February 22, 2022 12:06 pm

Oh crap. Sorry. Sloppy error on my part Rob. I should have noted that the MIT researchers “reviewed” the LtG report authored by the Meadows & commissioned by the Club of Rome in the 70s and concluded their predictions were on track. The Meadows should be acknowledged as the authors. You posted a video of Donella, or maybe it was Gail, I think it was Gail on OutFiniteWorld some months back that was very good.

AJ
AJ
February 21, 2022 12:53 pm

Think we should go to Defcon 0 (is there a number below 1?)? Putin recognized the two breakaway regions in Ukraine a few minutes ago. Instituted mutual defense agreements with them. Soon Russia will go forward to protect them (today?, tomorrow??). Then all bets about the immediate future are off (except collapse).
AJ

monkmil
February 21, 2022 12:19 pm

Another stellar example of denial (denial with numbers – my favourite) from someone who should know better
https://issues.org/renewables-minerals-energy-transition-jacobson-forum/

monkmil
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 21, 2022 2:19 pm

Another professor shared this article on LinkedIn. But luckily a few people in the comments called out Jacobson’s reputation for misleading numbers. I didn’t know he tried to sue people.

Martin
Martin
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 22, 2022 12:07 am

Yes, Jacobson is the one who sued others (Clack) for not believing in his numbers. Here is a good overview of the case: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-06-27/100-renewables-a-few-remarks-about-the-jacobsonclack-controversy/

AJ
AJ
February 20, 2022 5:05 am

So, I’ve internally debated writing anything about this . . .
But here goes.
OPINION (rest of this comment)
Some here suggested I read “The Case Against Reality” by Donald Hoffman.
Let me first state I am no genius and take the perspective that I can be educated. However, I am no fool either (I graduated magna cum laude with an undergraduate degree in a basic premed curriculum. I then worked in biotech for 10 years. I subsequently went to a lower tier law school and graduated top of my class and passed the California Bar on my first attempt. And was a successful attorney). So, words/ideas are something I am familiar with.
And for fun I have read a lot of history, classic literature, philosophy, and Science (and of course all the great recent books on collapse/overshoot/denial).
This book was a poor attempt to explain the brain and reality. A veritable word hash/salad. I suspected soon after starting the book that the author would at some point go “woo” on me. Sure enough, he kept me waiting until the very end. The author’s position is that we live in a virtual reality and when we die the virtual reality that is this reality will come off and what will happen then???
Sorry, but I think that is preposterous. When I die I think that I will be no more, I will cease to exist (as I did before I was born) from which I will not return (as none do). Just as evolution “designed” us to do.
IMHO. The author, is just trying to explain the brain, consciousness and reality and attempts to do this by tying together (poorly) many ideas he has come across.
However, just to show I am not a Luddite on this subject. . . I would recommend any of the books by Nick Lane. They are difficult books, dense (lots of biochemistry), but understandable. If the above book has done anything it is making me go back and reread the chapter on Consciousness in “Life Ascending” by Nick Lane.
Thanks to those who recommended.
AJ

Perran
Perran
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 20, 2022 12:12 pm

Have you finished reading The Real Anthony Fauci yet Rob?

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 20, 2022 2:22 pm

Do you suppose the male jewel beetles went“YEEEEAAAAA stubbies!” when they laid eyes on the shiny, brown dimpled glass bottom? Hey Rob do you remember the beer commercial with the line “short and stubby just like me?” Late 70s maybe 🤔

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  AJ
February 20, 2022 2:35 pm

I recommended the book. The fact that you went to a lower tier law school only raises you in my estimation. But you failed to mention your composting prowess in the recitation of your credentials.