By Bill Rees: On the Virtues of Self-Delusion—or maybe not!

Dr. Bill Rees, Professor Emeritus from the University of British Columbia, gave a presentation on our overshoot predicament earlier this month to a zoom meeting of the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome (CACOR).

I’m a longtime fan of Dr. Rees and consider him to be one of the most aware and knowledgeable people on the planet.

This is, I believe, the best talk I’ve seen by Dr. Rees and he covers all of the important issues, including topics like overpopulation that most of his peers avoid.

Presentations like this will probably not change our trajectory but nevertheless I find some comfort knowing there are a few other people thinking about the same issues. This can be a very lonely space.

The Q&A is also very good. I found it interesting to hear how much effort Dr. Rees has made to educate our leaders about what we should be doing to reduce future suffering. He was frank that no one to date, including the Green party, is open to his message. Not surprising, but sad. Also inspiring that someone of his stature is at least trying.

Summary

Climate-change and other environmental organizations urge governments to act decisively/rapidly to decarbonize the economy and halt further development of fossil fuel reserves. These demands arguably betray:

– ignorance of the role of energy in the modern economy;

– ill-justified confidence in society’s ability to transition to 100% green renewable energy;

– no appreciation of the ecological consequences of attempting to do so and;

– little understanding of the social implications.

Without questioning the need to abandon fossil fuels, I will argue that the dream of a smooth energy transition is little more than a comforting shared illusion. Moreover, even if it were possible it would not solve climate change and would exacerbate the real existential threat facing society, namely overshoot.

I then explore some of the consequences and implications of (the necessary) abandonment of fossil fuels in the absence of adequate substitutes, and how governments and MTI society should be responding to these unspoken biophysical realities.

Biography

Dr. William Rees is a population ecologist, ecological economist, Professor Emeritus, and former Director of the University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning.

His academic research focuses on the biophysical prerequisites for sustainability. This focus led to co-development (with his graduate students) of ecological footprint analysis, a quantitative tool that shows definitively that the human enterprise is in dysfunctional overshoot. (We would need five Earth-like planets to support just the present world population sustainably with existing technologies at North American material standards.)

Frustrated by political unresponsiveness to worsening indicators, Dr. Rees also studies the biological and psycho-cognitive barriers to environmentally rational behavior and policies. He has authored hundreds of peer reviewed and popular articles on these topics. Dr. Rees is a Fellow of Royal Society of Canada and also a Fellow of the Post-Carbon Institute; a founding member and former President of the Canadian Society for Ecological Economics; a founding Director of the OneEarth Initiative; and a Director of The Real Green New Deal. He was a full member of the Club of Rome from 2013 until 2018. His international awards include the Boulding Memorial Award in Ecological Economics, the Herman Daly Award in Ecological Economics and a Blue Planet Prize (jointly with his former student, Dr. Mathis Wackernagel).

I left the following comment on YouTube:

I’m a fellow British Columbian and longtime admirer of Dr. Rees. Thank you for the excellent presentation.

I agree with Dr. Rees’ prescription for what needs to be done but I think there’s a step that must precede his first step of acknowledging our overshoot predicament.

Given the magnitude and many dimensions of our predicament an obvious question is why do so few people see it?

I found a theory by Dr. Ajit Varki that provides a plausible explanation, and answers other important questions about our unique species.

The Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory posits that the human species with its uniquely powerful intelligence exists because it evolved to deny unpleasant realities.

If true, this implies that the first step to any positive meaningful change must be to acknowledge our tendency to deny unpleasant realities.

Varki explains his theory here:

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-25466-7_6

A nice video summary by Varki is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgYqW2Kgkg

My interpretations of the theory are here:
https://un-denial.com/denial-2/theory-short/

https://un-denial.com/2015/11/12/undenial-manifesto-energy-and-denial/

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

918 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 31, 2022 12:41 am

While I was never part of the Elon Musk fan club (or religion), I must admit that he is a very smart guy with a whitty humor. Have was interviewed by the BabylonBee in January 2022. Maybe I have to watch the interview for a few more good laughs.

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 31, 2022 11:18 am

Hopium? Denial??
Elon is crazy. I thought enough people had already demolished as impossible any chance of setting up a successful Mars colony? (far greater than one a billion, IMHO). And the waste of energy/resources to attempt to accomplish such a feat – astronomical. Besides any attempt would be filling the mass of humanity with false hope. I think Science Fiction is to blame as it fosters illogical fantasy thinking.
AJ

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 31, 2022 2:15 pm

But, I saw some “poll” (today or yesterday) that said over 40% of Canadians thought that masking should go on forever! So, Trudeau is just playing to his base. So sad. Why are all the tacitly “liberal” people turning into such totalitarian fascists? Also, just to show you can’t always tell who’s on what side. The morning blog by the National Review (mainstream U.S. conservatives) was defending Joe Rogan’s free speech right to have anyone on his show he wants and have reasoned discussions with them, even if it goes counter to the current narrative. I will have to watch the interviews.
Sad about all the friends and family in denial. My wife is – living in a hopium/denial universe. Only one of my daughters really gets where we are headed (and she’s working on a degree in sustainable ag – the only one I can talk to about collapse/extinction).
AJ

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
February 2, 2022 6:29 pm

If Musk was deadly serious about colonizing Mars he would be pumping vast amounts of money and resources into biosphere (closed system vivarium) research. He is not. Turns out it is really hard to do.

required
required
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 30, 2022 2:45 pm

Did somebody highjack Robs account and now posts spam? Because this very much looks like spam.

Heathen
Heathen
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 31, 2022 10:45 am

The comment of “required” with its incorrect spelling, punctuation, and grammar proves to be more offensive.

Mandrake
Mandrake
January 29, 2022 12:24 pm

This vid is off topic but maybe y’all could use a laugh.

Perran
Perran
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 29, 2022 4:32 pm

Good on you. My sentiments exactly. I’m still waiting to start this vaccine trial with covax 19. I thought I would have had my first shot by now but obviously there has been some delays.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 29, 2022 9:42 am

I have heard about Italy, was not aware that Germany is also waking up. I like it.

Brian
Brian
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 30, 2022 11:09 am

Have you ever found yourself asking : “Does our Government have our best interests in mind?”

At this juncture in history I can only hope so. Desperately so.

Exploring Biodigital Convergence Policy Horizons Canada| Horizons de politiques February 11, 2020
https://horizons.gc.ca/en/2020/02/11/exploring-biodigital-convergence/

From the forward:

“In the coming years, biodigital technologies could be woven into our lives in the way that digital technologies are now. Biological and digital systems are converging, and could change the way we work, live, and even evolve as a species. More than a technological change, this biodigital convergence may transform the way we understand ourselves and cause us to redefine what we consider human or natural.

Biodigital convergence may profoundly impact our economy, our ecosystems, and our society. Being prepared to support it, while managing its risks with care and sensitivity, will shape the way we navigate social and ethical considerations, as well as guide policy and governance conversations.

Guided by its mandate, Policy Horizons Canada (Policy Horizons) intends to start an informed and meaningful dialogue about plausible futures for biodigital convergence and the policy questions that may arise. In this initial paper, we define and explore biodigital convergence – why it is important to explore now, its characteristics, what new capabilities could arise from it, and some initial policy implications. We want to engage with a broad spectrum of partners and stakeholders on what our biodigital future might look like, how this convergence might affect sectors and industries, and how our relationships with technology, nature, and even life itself could evolve.

We welcome your comments and participation, and look forward to diving more deeply into the questions raised in this paper.”

Am I the one feeling like he’s going batshit crazy?

theblondbeast
theblondbeast
January 28, 2022 9:41 am

Turkey on the ropes – will it be the first domino?

theblondbeast
theblondbeast
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 1:03 pm

I almost shared this today! 34:20 – this guy gets it. (At least to some extent)

required
required
January 28, 2022 8:54 am

Brent again over 90 USD dollars at the moment. An this with a backdrop of economic deceleration. What does that tell us?

Brian
Brian
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 9:31 am

Man I’m glad I’m a small-scale seed producer and grow a shit-ton of my own food annually. I only wish I lived in a community where that kind of thing would catch on, and people would get the fuck off their devices, dispense with their yearning for cruise ships in January, and remember what serious mutual aid is all about. Time’s-a-coming!

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 1:09 pm

I think instead you wag the dog – have a good old-fashioned WAR! Ukraine anyone? What could go wrong?? The U.S. is the only SUPER POWER and Russia is merely a gnat bothering the U.S. – swat them down!! Neocons unite. (Irony).
AJ

AJ
AJ
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 2:51 pm

We (the U.S.) shouldn’t fuck with the Russians, BUT we are led by a senile fool and a bunch of neocons (they used to be Republicans when we were invading Iraq and Afghanistan) who think this is 1990 and we are the world’s only super power. There is a lot of denial about the U.S. military status in the world in Washington – and it’s going to get us (U.S.) our ass kicked (only if we can avoid canned sunshine).
AJ

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 4:50 am

I have read in the comments of one of John Michael Greer´s blogs that Trudeau “has caught a case of COWARD-19″…This somehow confirms my impression that he is the same kind of “fair-weather politician” as we have in Germany. They panic and hide as soon as a crisis is brewing.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 5:00 am

Awesome video. The Canadian truckers somehow remind me of the French farmers who also use their vehicles (tractors) for protests. Sadly, we Germans seem to be pathologically obedient to authority that something like the freedom convoy is unthinkable here. Even our revolutions prove to be ineffective (e.g. 1848 and 1918/19).

I must admit though that I am positively surprised by the amount of protestors at the German anti Covid policies demonstrations. However, the protestors are smeared as fascists by the media, and I know many people who just recite what they learned by watching the news.

monkmil
January 27, 2022 12:43 pm
Brian
Brian
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 10:59 am

I’ve been thinking about two people a lot lately: Joseph Goebbels and Alice Friedman. Might you imagine why?

Brian
Brian
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 11:38 am

No, not that I know of. But I think it is very pertinent that she wrote a book called “When The Trucks Stop Running”. As for my Goebbels reference…just look around you. ANYBODY who has anything honest or truthful to say is censored and demonized. Anybody that is useful in propagating lies is enabled and rewarded.

By the way, have you come across this yet? It kind of destroys the notion that these truckers have “unacceptable” views or are “radical operators” or “foreign operatives” or somehow “extremists”. I urge you to watch the whole thing. Fuck me, what happened to reality?

We’ve ALL had ENOUGH! | Interview with Brigette Belton, Convoy Trucker January 19, 2022

https://rumble.com/vsx3r8-weve-all-had-enough-interview-with-brigette-belton-convoy-trucker.html

Mandrake
Mandrake
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 29, 2022 12:54 pm

Blame converges mimetically on one person. Fauci you get a break this week.

Brent
Brent
January 27, 2022 9:24 am

Canada just made the decision to hold the prime lending rate at 0.25% (free money). They mirrored the US. They are warning rates are going to rise.

monkmil
Reply to  Brent
January 27, 2022 12:38 pm

Our inflation in NZ just topped 5.9%, house prices are near a million dollars on average. Our central bank is probably going to up the official cash rate

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 1:40 am

I agree with your assessment of the three programs. It is really hard to find out, how these programs are connected. Since I think that the global elite is aware of the upcoming troubles, I would expect that they are at least trying to plan for it (partly in public like the Great Reset, partly in secret). The pharma industry, media and national governments are just tools to execute their plan, with the nice side effect of making them richer in the process.

el mar
el mar
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 2:43 am

The WEF/UN should also launch a world-wide programme for decentralized subsistence-farming to avoid riots!

Perran
Perran
January 26, 2022 8:35 pm
Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 1:23 am

I am all for rapid fire capital punishment on TV as proposed by George Carlin:

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 1:41 am

Awesome. The problem is, if you confront an “NPC” with this, it is likely that he gets the support of all the other NPCs, while the “chad” is more or less alone.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 5:31 am

Normally, I am also pretty much out of touch of the current youth culture, but I incidentally stumbeld across these terms on YouTube a while ago. This whole meme culture is a book of seven seals for me, but I am in the process of understanding the basics now.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 1:05 am

If I look at the first half of the 20th century, I would say that we are pretty good at losing our minds.

I would not say that we are back at 1930s level but if you look at our insane Covid policies and other pretty stupid policies (the agenda of the Green party mentioned above comes to my mind), it seems like we are on a good path to become insane again.

theblondbeast
theblondbeast
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 26, 2022 7:49 pm

Population reduction – yes! Birth reduction vs. excess mortality? We’ll see! The rights of the elderly to be supported vs the rights of the young to have families…How would power shake out? I think we need both, actually – but all things considered I think allowing excess mortality is the better path. A hard future will need young people ready for what comes. It depends on what one’s goal is – but if it is a future for humans, we need to sacrifice the old, over the young.

If we’re talking sober – why forbid young people from having children vs refusing healthcare for those over ~60?

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 12:40 am

What are you thinking about the “issue” of population implosion? In most of the so called first world countries we have a population reduction already going on without any coercive measures due to plumeting birth rates. I live in a region in Germany, where the projection for 2030 is to 15% less people. We currently have more people older than 75 than people under 18 in our town. There are towns which will be empty in 20 years if this trend continues. The country-wide fertility rate currently hovers around 1,6 children per woman, which is 0,5 less than needed to keep the population stable. “Unfortunately”, the government policy is trying to fill up the void with people from other countries. So any positive effect of reduced energy usage due to declining population is negated. Wouldn´t it be an option to close of the rich countries to reduce our energy usage? I know this is not an option as this reeks of xenophobia, which is one of the worst crimes one can commit today.

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Secretface2097
January 27, 2022 12:43 am

This is also one of the reasons why I don´t vote for the Green Party in Germany. They want us to reduce our energy usage (which I appreciate) but at the same time want to increase the population by a factor of 3 by inviting the whole world to our land of milk and honey (which does not make any sense, if you want to achieve the first part).

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 5:27 am

I was thinking that a coalition of the Green party and the AfD, our “far right” party, would be interesting, if the Green party would work on reducing our emissions and the AfD would cease immigration to Germany. In reality, the parties have nothing in common and something like this would never happen. Too bad for us…

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 28, 2022 5:28 am

The censors strike again:

“Video unavailable
This video is no longer available because the YouTube account associated with this video has been terminated.”

theblondbeast
theblondbeast
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 26, 2022 9:33 am

No, it’s been a long time! I don’t understand how theautomaticearth transitioned to the current lead blogger.

Perran
Perran
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 26, 2022 9:38 pm

She’s still active on twitter
https://mobile.twitter.com/nicolefoss7?lang=en

monkmil
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 11:59 am

She also blogs here now https://www.foss.blog/

monkmil
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 27, 2022 11:55 am

She’s very active on Facebook and seems to be keeping well in NZ. When Trump was in power she pretty much focused solely on that whole debacle

el mar
el mar
January 26, 2022 12:10 am

No hope!comment image
Kurt Tucholsky – a stairway: speaking – writing – keeping silent
(it’s the last entry in his »sudelbuch«, 1935)

Secretface2097
Secretface2097
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 26, 2022 12:39 am

My favourite quote from Tucholsky is:

“In Deutschland gilt derjenige, der auf den Schmutz hinweist, für viel gefährlicher als derjenige, der den Schmutz macht.”

Translated into English, this means something like:
“In Germany, the person who is pointing at the dirt is considered to be much more dangerous than the person who is making the dirt.”

If I look into the Covid situation and other important issues like overshoot, this could be applied to the whole world.

B
B
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 25, 2022 12:46 pm

Damned near everyone is in one form of denial or another. I am no Peterson “fan”, but this recent hit piece by Nikiforuk almost rings with a Covidian/wokester righteous hate that I’m accustomed to witnessing now online and in the media. It’s getting harder and harder to stay out of the lethal crossfire of this narrative war.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/01/17/Reply-Jordan-Peterson-Pandemic-Demands/

Brian
Brian
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 25, 2022 2:10 pm

I’m not “in” to the tribal politics of personality evaluation, despite the temptation of these latter days of idiocracy where we seem to be encouraged to do so. There are otherwise good people that say stupid things, as well as stupid people who can on occasion say true things. And I’m wise enough to know that my own assumptions can always be revised based on new evidence.

I remember coming across an aphorism in the Hindmarsh paper I referenced here some time ago that said it succinctly:

“Even a crooked stick can sometimes draw a straight line”

I like that!

monkmil
Reply to  Rob Mielcarski
January 25, 2022 2:12 pm

Peterson also is on record saying we shouldn’t worry about peak oil because Canada has vast oil sands. FFS

Martin
Martin
Reply to  monkmil
January 26, 2022 3:16 am

OK, that is a disastrous statement that goes beyond denial. It must come directly from his lizard brain.

monkmil
Reply to  Martin
January 27, 2022 11:52 am

bahahahaha