Dr. Bill Rees, Professor Emeritus from the University of British Columbia, gave a presentation on our overshoot predicament earlier this month to a zoom meeting of the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome (CACOR).
I’m a longtime fan of Dr. Rees and consider him to be one of the most aware and knowledgeable people on the planet.
This is, I believe, the best talk I’ve seen by Dr. Rees and he covers all of the important issues, including topics like overpopulation that most of his peers avoid.
Presentations like this will probably not change our trajectory but nevertheless I find some comfort knowing there are a few other people thinking about the same issues. This can be a very lonely space.
The Q&A is also very good. I found it interesting to hear how much effort Dr. Rees has made to educate our leaders about what we should be doing to reduce future suffering. He was frank that no one to date, including the Green party, is open to his message. Not surprising, but sad. Also inspiring that someone of his stature is at least trying.
Summary
Climate-change and other environmental organizations urge governments to act decisively/rapidly to decarbonize the economy and halt further development of fossil fuel reserves. These demands arguably betray:
– ignorance of the role of energy in the modern economy;
– ill-justified confidence in society’s ability to transition to 100% green renewable energy;
– no appreciation of the ecological consequences of attempting to do so and;
– little understanding of the social implications.
Without questioning the need to abandon fossil fuels, I will argue that the dream of a smooth energy transition is little more than a comforting shared illusion. Moreover, even if it were possible it would not solve climate change and would exacerbate the real existential threat facing society, namely overshoot.
I then explore some of the consequences and implications of (the necessary) abandonment of fossil fuels in the absence of adequate substitutes, and how governments and MTI society should be responding to these unspoken biophysical realities.
Biography
Dr. William Rees is a population ecologist, ecological economist, Professor Emeritus, and former Director of the University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning.
His academic research focuses on the biophysical prerequisites for sustainability. This focus led to co-development (with his graduate students) of ecological footprint analysis, a quantitative tool that shows definitively that the human enterprise is in dysfunctional overshoot. (We would need five Earth-like planets to support just the present world population sustainably with existing technologies at North American material standards.)
Frustrated by political unresponsiveness to worsening indicators, Dr. Rees also studies the biological and psycho-cognitive barriers to environmentally rational behavior and policies. He has authored hundreds of peer reviewed and popular articles on these topics. Dr. Rees is a Fellow of Royal Society of Canada and also a Fellow of the Post-Carbon Institute; a founding member and former President of the Canadian Society for Ecological Economics; a founding Director of the OneEarth Initiative; and a Director of The Real Green New Deal. He was a full member of the Club of Rome from 2013 until 2018. His international awards include the Boulding Memorial Award in Ecological Economics, the Herman Daly Award in Ecological Economics and a Blue Planet Prize (jointly with his former student, Dr. Mathis Wackernagel).
I left the following comment on YouTube:
I’m a fellow British Columbian and longtime admirer of Dr. Rees. Thank you for the excellent presentation.
I agree with Dr. Rees’ prescription for what needs to be done but I think there’s a step that must precede his first step of acknowledging our overshoot predicament.
Given the magnitude and many dimensions of our predicament an obvious question is why do so few people see it?
I found a theory by Dr. Ajit Varki that provides a plausible explanation, and answers other important questions about our unique species.
The Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory posits that the human species with its uniquely powerful intelligence exists because it evolved to deny unpleasant realities.
If true, this implies that the first step to any positive meaningful change must be to acknowledge our tendency to deny unpleasant realities.
Varki explains his theory here:
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-25466-7_6
A nice video summary by Varki is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgYqW2Kgkg
My interpretations of the theory are here:
https://un-denial.com/denial-2/theory-short/https://un-denial.com/2015/11/12/undenial-manifesto-energy-and-denial/
A message today from Nate Hagens to his subscribers. We discussed this podcast above.
https://www.juliusruechel.com/2022/01/the-false-god-of-central-planning.html?m=1
Long but well worth the read
Thanks more evidence that our leaders did everything wrong and nothing right. If our leaders were simply morons we would expect a random mix of good decisions and bad decisions, not 100% bad. Something other than pubic health must be the priority.
Awesome Tweet. I also like the avatar of the poster with the masked Franklin.
Man that pharmaceutical advertising money is powerful. News outlets around the world are downplaying the protests. Ditto here in Canada.
https://maajidnawaz.substack.com/p/the-revolution-will-not-be-televised-c9b
My mother once told me a story about an Iranian friend, who lived in Teheran during the Islamic revolution of 1979. The friend told my mother, that even in the center of the revolution, you did not hear anything about it, if you weren´t directly involved. So I would expect, that reporting on a revolution within the western world would be suppressed by the mainstream media as long as possible.
I’m thinking we might need a level lower than 1.
Meanwhile, not a single word from the mainstream news sources I monitor on the stop the mandates protest in Washington DC yesterday. I was very impressed by the speeches and think they were fact-filled, heart-felt, and mostly non-partisan. Congrats to the organizers.
Most of the reporting I’ve come across was dumping on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for his speech re: Anne Frank, Nazis, etc.
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/newsus/rfk-jr-remarks-on-anne-frank-vaccines-draw-condemnation/ar-AAT62IQ
I saw that despicable reporting. They focus on 5 seconds and ignore 10 minutes of content.
I just started Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s book on Fauci.
I also did not read anything about the mandates protest in the German media. At least the protests within Germany were reported, but I am not sure whether the amount of protestors was counted correctly. My experience is that protests againt the government are undercounted while government approved protests (like Fridays for Future) are overcounted.
My proprosal for a DEFCON level below 1 would be 2G++, as we already have it here in Germany. It means that you need to be vaccinated or recovered, have a current negative Covid test and wear an FFP2 mask, it cannot get more extreme. At least, that is what I am hoping.
How is the mood in Germany given that Russia may soon invade the Ukraine because the US did not live up to a commitment it made to keep NATO out?
It is basically the same as when the Russians invaded Crimea. There is a big outcry in the media about the bad Russians, backed with the threat of governmental sanctions. The Green Party sees this possible invasion as a further point of attack against the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Even the chancellor said something along the line, that they will think about not putting this pipeline into operation, if Russia attacks the Ukraine.
I would think that for most of the German citizens it is too far away to really be a concern. Even my mother, who is always watching the news, did not bring up this topic at all, when we met the last time.
On a personal level, I am pretty disappointed by the NATO/US not keeping their promises, but based on my historical understanding, this is not an outlier. If there is no advantage in keeping the promise, it will be “forgotten” quickly.
Thanks for the update. Let’s hope they keep nukes out of the conflict.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=244930
Yeah, and market-ticker goes on to say that the U.S. really hasn’t had any casualties like we had in WWII. What happens if the U.S. loses an aircraft carrier (and they are the epitome of a soft target for a hyper-sonic weapon)? Looking longingly back at the start of WWI most historians think it was foolishness on all sides. If there are any historians left in the future, will they not think the same about the U.S. now?? senile president surrounded by people who personify the “Peter Principle” (idiots who are incompetent).
Just tell me when you start drinking your stash, Rob!!
AJ
Not drinking yet. 🙂
On a more positive note, I was really moved in a good way yesterday watching the DC protest. I’m frequently critical of US (and Canadian) citizens but there are clearly still some good & wise people out there and they spoke up yesterday.
Interesting comment by HHH at POB:
https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-update-january-22-2022/#comment-733841
Must watch discussion between two very good men who got covid right from the beginning and are deeply worried that the bad guys are going to get away with it and citizens won’t learn a thing from this tragic event in our history.
Brought some tears to my eyes.
Here’s another really smart virus guy in the same class as el gato and eugyppius, and with similar wit.
Damn the immune system is complicated, and it’s clear our idiot leaders don’t understand it.
https://hiddenmarkov.substack.com/p/the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-blogstack
Interesting article. I especially liked the part which talked about the business model of Substack, as I also have my problems with the payment model. I would really like to donate money to quite a few authors on this platform, but it gets expensive quickly. I currently have around 25 subscriptions at Substack. I am not sure if everyone has payments activated. Even if only 50% have payments activated, I would pay more than 50$ a month (based on 5$ per subscription.) I would never pay that much money for magazines, so why should I pay that much for Substack?
Curious minds want to know. How much pain will the fed endure to protect the integrity of its only product?
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/01/weekly-commentary-market-structure-in.html
A great song from one of my favorite singers.
Please join this march if you are able to do so without burning large quantities of fossil energy to get there.
https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/press-release-on-the-eve-of-washington
Preptip: On the energy conservation benefits of hot water bottles.
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2022/01/the-revenge-of-the-hot-water-bottle.html
And if that doesn’t work you can always make it a three dog night.
Funny you mentioned that. One of the British natural gas companies had to apologize to their patrons who were complaining about the high cost of natural gas when they suggested that they should sleep with their dogs to conserve heat.
AJ
We had something similar in Germany but the politicians weren´t that creative. They just said that if you can´t pay the heating bill, just heat less. Awesome advice…
very german haha
Oh great – more habitat destruction…
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-passes-law-relocate-capital-remote-borneo-2022-01-18/
Do you really think it will get built? I don’t think and hope so.
Nate Hagens’ podcast with Chuck Watson listed above is a must hear for everyone concerned with collapse. I subsequently went down the rabbit hole yesterday and read some more over on Chuck Watson’s blog: Enki Research. Mostly he is a risk analyst about weather/climate change (which he stated in the podcast). However, he did a blog post that is a short but even more important must read where he fleshes out our immediate nuclear risk with Russia/Ukraine. The U.S. is a weak, “old” collapsing super power that thinks it is still 1990. Nothing worse than collapsing super powers. They do foolish things, re: the U.S. “new” nuclear weapons and our intention to use them. We (the U.S. populace) are fools led by fools. I read Watson’s blog and all the links and it is bad – in the most depressing way. Maybe it’s time to break out the booze?
I wonder, on a purely academic level, how it was at the moment of collapse in other civilizations when you could see the inevitable and you were one of the few who could (and wouldn’t deny it)?
AJ
https://blogenkiops.wordpress.com/2022/01/05/why-the-joint-statement-on-nuclearweapons-doesnt-matter/
Thanks, I’ll read Watson’s post.
The US seems incapable of empathy. How did the US respond to Russian weapons in Cuba? How would the US respond if Russia and Mexico formed a military alliance and Russia began installing weapons in Mexico? How is the Ukraine any different?
We know from thousands of years of history that our species responds to economic stress and scarcity with war. What’s different this time are weapons that can destroy everything.
Jay Hanson in this rare interview predicts nuclear war around this time frame.
https://un-denial.com/2018/03/26/by-jay-hanson-reality-report-interview-november-3-2008/
I have Jay Hanson on my blog list for one of the best explanations of the Maximum Power Principle. I will have to listen to the link you gave.
I hate to agree with you, and Chuck Watson had some info on how out of touch the U.S. leadership is with respect to what other countries think of us and how we are seen in the World in general (very badly as ultimate hypocrites and bullies – how true). That is what so infuriates me with the Russia baiting. We (the U.S.) promised Gorbachev (and Yeltsin) that we would not expand NATO into Eastern Europe and then we did. And our response to their protestations is that we (the U.S.) said: “it isn’t in writing so we don’t have to adhere to any verbal agreement” (besides we are the sole Super Power – so there!!). No wonder Russia wants responses in writing now. We (the U.S.) don’t realize that while we wasted money and lives in the Middle East, Russia and China have modernized their weapons where ours are only the most expensive junk money can buy. The U.S. is led by fools.
AJ
Agreed. I think it’s remarkable that the richest and most powerful country on the planet has had two presidents in a row that can’t form a coherent sentence.
Maybe this is also a sign of decline of the American super power that politicians are getting dumber and dumber. President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho seems not that far away in the future as predicted in “Idiocracy”.
I still would not expect that the USA will start a nuclear war against an opponent who is capable of retaliation, as long as the problem of MAD is not solved.
I also had a listen to Hagen’s interview of Watson. Watson talked about the Joint Chiefs of Staff not being in the chain of command for quite some time. It’s my understanding that during the latter days of the Trump Administration, at some point they informally reinstated themselves into the chain of command by getting the various commanders to agree to not take any action without checking with them first even if Trump ordered it. It was informal but effective.
Re: Enki Research. Unusual name Enki, not something you encounter everyday.
Enki was the Sumerian god of wisdom, fresh water, intelligence, trickery and mischief, crafts, magic, exorcism, healing, creation, virility, fertility. Exorcism no less!
Chuck felt compelled to change the name from Watson Technical Consulting (WTC) after 2003 for obvious reasons. And Methaz (meteorological hazards) was also a no go, again for obvious reasons. Which brings me to The Beaver. Another name change dear to my heart.
The plan to change the title of The Beaver after 90 years to avoid online porn blockers made Canada’s top history magazine an international media sensation — first as joke fodder for Jay Leno and as the subject of an editorial printed in another venerable publication: the British-based newsweekly The Economist.
“The Beaver website was attracting (albeit briefly) readers who had little interest in Samuel de Champlain’s astrolabe or what Prairie settlers ate for breakfast,” the editorial dryly observed, before concluding that the “dull” new name — “Canada’s History” — was necessary to help storytelling about this country’s past escape “Internet obscenity filters” and crude references to “female pubic hair.”
The Economist, not above a naughty pun itself, ran a picture of the tree-chomping rodent alongside its editorial, with the caption: “No, it’s not a pussy.”
Late-night TV host Leno also cracked wise earlier this week about The Beaver, suggesting the magazine has been a hot seller among young Canadian men who were, however, very “disappointed when they got it home.”
It’s a publicity blitz that any company rebranding itself would crave, but the attention generated by the Winnipeg magazine’s makeover has also prompted criticism from some subscribers about the banality of the new name, and made the country’s bucktoothed national symbol a global laughingstock — or, perhaps, even more of a global laughing stock.
LOL! We also have some wild cougars here, but whenever one gets close to a family home we shoot it. Sad but true.
Yeah well there are a lot of f…ing idiots out there. Total morons. I’m talking mass psychosis.
Lithium is useful.
Covid vaccines are not useful in young healthy people.
Proving that our leaders are morons.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/rio-tinto-shares-take-hit-serbia-pulls-plug-24-bln-lithium-project-2022-01-21/
“Lithium is useful”
For more than batteries Rob. Could be a tool in the toolbox for that mass psychosis you all talking about. Maybe the PTB can get creative and add it to the sulfate aerosols when they do their future geo-engineering sprays.
Here’s a fascinating case study of our tendency to deny unpleasant realties.
These guys are really smart dot connecting experts on the Eurodollar system. In today’s video they draw a connection between the mass formation (aka psychosis) the world is experiencing and the unprecedented (but unacknowledged) global economic depression the world has been experiencing since 2008.
The amazing thing about the video is that they fumble around looking for an explanation when it’s staring them in the face: energy driven limits to growth.
Doubly fascinating since they have viewed Chris Martenson’s work and still don’t see reality.
El gato explains how to make yourself a hero.
China seems to be tightening covid policies and the west seems to be loosening covid policies.
Chinese leadership is usually much wiser than western leadership.
Do they know something we do not?
China lowered its interest rate today. The west is raising rates.
Is this just “Olympic preparations” or just optics for the same?
AJ
The latest episode of Nate Hagens’ podcast The Great Simplification is pretty good and focusses on the risk of nuclear war.
My summary using less politically correct words:
1) The short term risk of nuclear war is high and much higher than many other risks we worry about.
2) The core problem is that our leaders are idiots because they have to be idiots to get elected.
3) Citizens are idiots and therefore vote for idiots (see point 2).
4) The solution is probably some form of technocracy.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/04-chuckwatson
OMG was my first thought on listening to this podcast. I we survive the next few weeks with the idiots in Europe and especially the Biden administration we will be lucky. The Biden establishment doesn’t understand Russia and their concerns and basically (today) flipped off the ultimatum that Russia gave us a few weeks ago. That wouldn’t be fatal EXCEPT that U.S. official policy is NUTS (acronym for Nuclear Utilization Target Selection) and the U.S. thinks they can have a limited nuclear war (probably in Ukraine) with Russia.
I have been trying to improve my health (lost 10 lbs, walking 5 miles a day, no drinking alcohol) but this podcast made me ask why? The future really looks bad. I should have a drink.
AJ
LOL. Good summary of the threat. I also liked his insight that the rest of the world fears but does not respect the unethical idiot US leaders.
I haven’t had a drink or a cigarette for over 10 years but I’ve got a nice stash waiting for me when it’s clear there’s no point staying healthy.
NUTS is nuts.
“There was no end to the evil schemes that a thought machine that oversized* couldn’t imagine and execute.” K. Vonnegut
*3kg!
“So, in the interests of survival, they trained themselves to be agreeing machines instead of thinking machines. All their minds had to do was to discover what other people were thinking, and then they thought that, too.”
― Kurt Vonnegut, “Breakfast of Champions” (1973)
Yeah, Vonnegut takes a dim view of our big brains. LOL. Maybe shaving off a few IQ points with alcohol isn’t such a bad idea? I know my big brain had led me astray and made me do stupid stuff. Thanks big brain.
h/t el gato
hilarious
Very interesting analysis from el gato today. I love the way he thinks and criticizes his own hypotheses.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-boosters-associated
An apology from an environmentalist
“Maybe I shouldn’t have tried to make a living by campaigning on climate change. Anyone who follows the logic through realises we are actually campaigning against industrial civilisation. For anybody in the industrialised world this is the source of all our wealth. It’s what pays all our wages. Have fun sawing down the tree branch you’re sitting on.”
https://www.darkgreenauckland.nz/posts/an-apology-from-an-environmentalist
Bingo. That’s why I think the focus should be on overshoot. Once you accept that overshoot is the key issue then you can have an intelligent debate about lifestyle vs. population. Would you prefer 100 million affluent Canadians, or 2 billion poor peasants? But be aware, whatever lifestyle you choose you can’t have 8 billion people with depleted fossil energy.
I’ll vote again when a party has overshoot mitigation as their top policy priority. I fully expect to never vote again. Fucking morons.
I find the threads started by by HHH at pob interesting.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/september-non-opec-oil-production-slips/#comment-733494
Yeah, there has been an increasing awareness in the last ~1year or so of an expanded understanding of the role of central banks. Between 2009-2019 I was in the very common mainstream camp of “They are printing money.” I think the latest round of inflation concerns gave rise to a counterpoint of people understanding CB operations better. The Eurodollar/shadow banking system is at the heart of many of these questions.
HHH has great comments. I read every comment at POB but mostly lurk as the oil technicals are still beyond me. I do chime in occasionally on the “wind and solar will save us” side of things.
I dislike the debates over whether printing money is actually happening. They’re muddled I think because everyone has a different definition of printing money. I think it’s much clearer to say they are loaning money that cannot be repaid from real economic growth, and can only be repaid with more loaned money.
It’s not money printing while everyone pretends that the debt will be repaid from growth, but the reality is that we’ve hit limits to growth and so we are buying 1 dollar of growth with several dollars of debt. When we reach the end of this can kicking the effect will be the same as if the money was printed. Do you have a different understanding?
I don’t understand the Eurodollar system. I assume it means European banks loan $US but I also assume that means they do so under the control of the Fed, just like the big US commercial banks. Is my understanding wrong?
Rob – the Eurodollar system is loosely the “shadow banking system.” It means that banks outside of the USA make loans denominated in US dollars. These loans are not regulated by the US banking system and much of the data is not available. The issue that makes this important is that the dollar value of these shadow banking transactions is actually much more than that of the onshore banking system. So we are in some ways only ever seeing the tip of the iceberg in financial markets.
Regarding your first point I am prone to agree. Money is loaned into existence. In the past this expansionary effect could take place so long as there were profitable activities (the ability to repay principal with a stream of future income). At some point I assume the financial result of the limits to growth means that there are no longer any legitimately profitable activities because the inputs of energy or resources are too expensive to be affordable to consumers.
While things may fall apart sooner for other reasons I think the farthest we can stretch this is best captured by Lacy Hunt: We can continue down this path until debt and declining productivity lead us into deflation, or we can change the laws governing central banks and destroy the currency by backstopping consumption. The underlying reality remains the same – there will be less stuff. Whether or not there is simultaneously less money or way too much is hard to say.
I posted on Tim Morgan’s site about this recently: Who can say what would happen if the concept of degrowth/limits entered the broad consciousness? It seems to me the banking and financial systems would collapse overnight. In this environment I doubt intervention would be possible without the use of unprecedented force and coercion.
Thanks, I agree with Lacy Hunt. I like to say the only thing we can be certain of is that we will be poorer. Whether poverty comes with less money or money that is worthless is a political decision that cannot be predicted.
I clearly do not understand shadow banking. I like to try to distill the essence of things. I thought the essence of a bank (including shadow banks) was that it is a business legally permitted to simultaneously add offsetting assets and liabilities to it’s balance sheet, provided it abides by rules regarding reserves and collateral.
It’s a fascinating area as it has a lot of implications to the oil story. The following excerpt gives an idea. The whole article linked below is a good primer, particularly sections 2 and 3:
“Let us look at the institutional evolution of the US monetary area more in detail. Offshore USD creation started with the emergence of the Eurodollar marketFootnote1 in 1956 (Einzig, Reference Einzig1964) – a financial innovation that did not emerge out of systematic planning, but ‘more or less by accident’ (Kindleberger, Reference Kindleberger1970: 173). London bankers, with the vigorous support of the Bank of England and the British treasury (Burn, Reference Burn2006; Helleiner, Reference Helleiner1994), invented Eurodollars as a new form of USD-denominated credit instruments that were not subject to US regulation and oversight – in particular regulation Q, a rule introduced after the Great Depression which capped the interest rates payable on onshore dollar deposits.
In the early years, communist countries were interested in USD business without directly engaging with the US, and global oil trade was organized through the market: petrodollars are Eurodollars…”
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-institutional-economics/article/evolution-of-the-offshore-usdollar-system-past-present-and-four-possible-futures/B36ED9082CECE54F3F5B8E8F40D15148
Thanks, it looks complex but I’ll read it. I find it remarkable that a currency can be created outside of a country’s control. That used to be grounds for war.
Finally got around to reading “The Big Short”. Yes, these things are complex, partly on purpose. I suspect that Eurodollars and other financial creations are just more scams and greed driven criminal or near criminal behavior as happened with CDS’s and similar back in 2005-2008.
Here is HHH’s take on QE and the Eurodollar system.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-update-january-22-2022/#comment-733867
I missed one key point: As I understand it the fact that the Eurodollar system is not regulated by the FED typically means that the loans are backed by collateral. In a perfect world this tends to be UST’s. However, the risk of the shadow bank system comes from the fact that they create a wild array of financial instruments to serve as collateral. This includes corporate and mortgage backed securities – and various degrees of leveraged instruments based on multiples/fractions of underlying treasuries.
So this system has a desperate need for UST’s in order to expand, and also a desperate risk of not being able to access dollars in times of contraction.
h/t el gato
In case you were wondering why your packages were not arriving.
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2022/01/14/union-pacific-train-robberies-up-356-la-county-da-george-gascons-no-cash-bail-policy/
Thanks, first I heard of this trend. The rich and poor worlds are equalizing, but not in the direction most hoped. Our western rich governments are also behaving like banana republics. Imagine what it will be like when collapse shifts a gear with a stock market collapse and oil scarcity.
Yeah I agree w/ your comment and I’m personally offended because I’m still waiting to take delivery of my pizza scissors, quirky egg minder, levitation floating globe and “as seen on TV hat.” It’s been months. Inconsiderate bastards.
Satire is the best antidote for insanity.
The satire was sooooo good. He does a good job of taking down all those bureaucrats (aka scientists?), politicians and the MSM that have used the Covid pandemic to attempt to control society for their own power/money. Too bad its kinda a distraction from collapse that appears to be accelerating.
Winter is cold in the UK, and Europe doesn’t have enough natural gas. Russia and China see a weakened U.S. with a failed leadership elite. What better time to have a war? The problem is that nothing humans do go according to plans. Things spiral out of control. The short term is looking more bleak and with it the long term looks positively like . . . -and here we want to interrupt with DENIAL (things will really get better (yeah, we could only hope)). Denial seems to be the way everyone around me responds. I think (IMHO) that war is coming and we are in mid 1939. Good luck everyone. One day soon we may have no internet and will truly be on our own.
AJ
A resource war seems to be low on people’s list of things to worry about. I agree with you AJ, it seems inevitable.
Wait for the cries of, “no one could of seen this coming!” face palm
Good news. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick has decided to end his self-imposed silence and is writing about covid again.
In case you don’t know Kendrick, he has shown that all of the advice given by our health profession on cholesterol and heart disease is wrong.
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2022/01/14/dont-just-do-something-stand-there/
The best part of the essay was the following open letter from Professor Ehud Qimron, head of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Tel Aviv University and one of the leading Israeli immunologists:
The letter is very good but I observe he neglected to mention other important points. Such as not providing advice for strengthening immune systems, ignoring early treatment protocols, distorting safety data used to approve the vaccines, and not punishing those responsible for creating the virus.
Yeah I’m not either although that is by luck really. If I’d lived in Western Australia or Victoria I’d have been forced to. If I’d worked in health care, aged care or been a teacher I’d have been forced to. It’s totally fucking nuts.
It got to 50.5 degrees in Roeburne yesterday. Spare a thought for the inmates at the Roeburne correctional facility. They have no air conditioning in their cells.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100754082
wow
Superb graphical overview of natural gas supply to Europe.
https://ig.ft.com/europes-gas-crisis-pipelines-explainer/
With gas supplies so dependent on Russia, I would think there would be more push back in Europe to any U.S. war posturing with Russia over Ukraine? But then Europe might fell like they are between a rock and a hard place?
AJ
We live in world where if you apply reason and evidence to make a prediction you will be correct if you assume the opposite. People have lost their minds.
A new catchy slogan.
Nate Hagens just launched a new podcast “The Great Simplification”.
https://natehagens.substack.com/p/introducingthe-great-simplification
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/
The Great Simplification podcast episode 2 with Dr. Shanna Swan has good and bad news.
The good news is that human sperm count is down about 50% and is still falling with no end in sight due to chemicals in our environment.
The bad news is that sperm counts are probably also down in all other species.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/02-shannaswan
El gato today with a deep dive into how data is routinely manipulated by the pharmaceutical industry to fool our idiot leaders into believing an outcome that does not exist.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/bayesian-datacrime-defining-vaccine
The word is getting out that Dr. Fauci & Co. knew more than they were letting on:
Click to access Letter-Re.-Feb-1-Emails-011122.pdf
and EcoHealth Alliance was playing fast and loose and not following the rules:
If it wasn’t for conspiracy theories, I would have no idea what was really going on…
Thanks I saw that. It’s mind boggling that the guy in charge of fixing the problem is also the guy that was unethically or illegally involved in creating the problem. Shame on our leaders for not acting to restore integrity.
Part of the problem is that our leaders have convinced themselves that they are part of a meritocracy. They have become leaders because they are the smartest in the “room”. So they trust the “scientists” in the same “room” because they must be the smartest too. Sadly they just got to where they are by luck, perseverance and maybe enough intelligence to be dangerous – AND a heaping big dose of denial (on anything that challenges consensus thought). Sad state of affairs.
AJ
Any non-catatonic citizen still in possession of their faculties ought to be smelling a veritable mass grave of rats by now. There are too many contradictions in the “N-arrative”. For an interesting take on the bizzaro world of what we are supposed to perceive as ‘leaders’ and ‘officials’ and ‘experts’ in this insane trajectory try reading Julius Ruechel’s interpretation. This is no longer about “Public Health” and I am increasingly questioning whether it ever was.
Who’s in Charge? The Rule Makers, Power Brokers, and Influencers of Lockdown Wonderland
https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/04/whos-in-charge-rule-makers-power.html
Thanks. We can be certain it’s not about public health given they never discuss losing weight, nor adequate vitamin D, nor simple, safe & inexpensive early treatment.
And by definition the issuance of EUA for the ‘vaccines’ required that there not to be any alternative interventions – passive or active. I think we’re way beyond the threshold of mere incompetence or blundering stupidity here as some kind of logical explanation, although that still plays a part in it. We’re in a kind of “seal the exits” scenario.
I don’t know if you pay attention to any form of MSM. But if you don’t, you should, if only because that is what the mass of your fellow citizens are tuned in to. And when I take the pulse of public sentiment as promulgated and portrayed by the MSM, I can only conclude that I no longer recognize what I though was my country. People, leaders, institutions – have all gone batshit crazy.
Mattias Desmet’s explanations for all this are becoming more intelligible by the day.
some pertinent examples:
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2022/01/09/time-to-raise-the-price-for-those-who-still-wont-get-vaxxed.html
https://montrealgazette.com/opinion/tasha-kheiriddin-the-unvaccinated-must-be-deterred-from-harming-others/wcm/ca262dfd-962e-4a8d-b2ed-a91905d73f2d
https://www.thesuburban.com/news/city_news/police-raid-hockey-game/article_8f065919-3358-5010-84dc-179cb529aeca.html#tncms-source=article-nav-next
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-ottawas-180-degree-turn-on-mandatory-vaccination
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-government-orders-three-jewish-orthodox-schools-in-montreal-to-shut-down-1.5734616
and here is a short, patronizing (and dare I say chilling) clip from our provincial health minister
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2355009
and so on.
Thanks. Every once in a while I dip into MSM like my local CHEK TV to see what they are thinking. It makes me sick to my stomach. They are unthinking morons who believe the latest cute cat story should be the headline. Zero discussion of data or evidence nor probing questions about anything.
I observe that my few close friends and family mostly agree with what MSM is telling them. I guess it’s a good thing I’m comfortable with my own company.
El gato wrote a interesting piece today making the case that citizens cannot blame our leaders and MSM. We are receiving the leadership and information we demanded. We need to look in the mirror for whom to blame.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/we-wont-get-normality-back-without
I liked Ruechel’s piece. The problem he has identified in this “Alice in Wonderland” that we find ourselves in with Covid, is that the powers that be can’t afford to not stay in power because if they are out of power they may be held to account for their actions. Here in the U.S. I’m sure that there are plenty of republicans who would want to impeach Biden or prosecute Fauci for what they have done, re: Covid. So, one suspects that something that distracts from Covid shenanigans might be in order: War with Russia (or China or both), economic collapse/depression. Both those would make Covid a fast forgotten memory. IMHO.
AJ
Here’s a strange thing: If you dig in to our literary inheritance as a culture, you’re likely to unearth gems like this which fortify the old adage “Life imitates art”.
This passage, more or less well known, is a prime example:
“Crimestop means the faculty of stopping short, as though by instinct, at the threshold of any dangerous thought. It includes the power of not grasping analogies, of failing to perceive logical errors, of misunderstanding the simplest arguments if they are inimical to Ingsoc, and of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction. Crimestop, in short, means protective stupidity. ”
~ George Orwell (aka Eric Blair), 1984
My friend Jack Alpert reposted some videos on his channel, perhaps as a refresher course now that the backside of overshoot is a little more visible to those who deny it.
Rob I’d just like to thank you for putting me onto the great cholesterol con. I love cream. All these years of guilt and moderation are now over. I actually feel cheated in a way. I keep thinking how the hell did I get sucked in by all the low fat bullshit!
Along these lines I’ve been listening to prof Tim Noakes the last couple of days and found him very interesting. Here’s a link to one of his many YouTube lectures.
It’s amazing the lengths people in certain professions with opposing (wrong) views have gone to try to discredit him.
Thanks for the tip on Noakes, I’ll check him out.
The more I listen to Dr. Malcolm Kendrick the more I respect him. He is a wise truth seeker.
I’ve lost what little respect I had for the health care profession. Their leaders are not very intelligent, nor open minded to new evidence, nor ethical.
I watched the Noakes talk and can confirm it is very good.
Shame on the health care profession.
Anyone feels that the house of cards (also known as economy) will be able to keep up another year? Or will reality set in? I’m a permabear for at least a decade, so a fool in other words, but I’m amazed that somehow there is not a global depression by now.
All predictions on timing by myself and everyone I follow have been wrong.
There do seem to be a lot of cracks showing right now. I’m expecting a bad year.
Woohoo. Webb is fully deployed.
https://webb.nasa.gov/content/webbLaunch/whereIsWebb.html
More good news and some really good insights into the flawed thinking of humans from el gato.
In summary, there’s a good chance the pandemic is over, and there’s a near certain probability that most citizens will not have learned a single useful thing from their covid experience.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/covid-policy-and-the-topology-of
Some more hope from el gato.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/is-omicron-mild
El gato malo today reminds us that the most important number to monitor is all cause mortality. I observe that our idiot leaders never discuss it.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-are-northern-european-except
I liked el gato in this piece. He lays out all the data and then says Sweden’s ACM (all cause mortality) is down and they are vaxing about the same as their neighbors. AND like a true scientist he says he doesn’t know why and solicits ideas from readers. Seems like a true lack of hubris there!
AJ
Yes, I continue to think el gato is doing important original analysis and has high integrity when he stays away from denial triggering overshoot issues.
It’s beautiful here today. High tide with strong north wind and clear skies. Lots of new driftwood.
After the tide went out we had a beachcombing bonanza today. Most amount of driftwood anyone has seen here.
I got over a dozen 16′ 4×4’s. I bet they’re worth $100 each. A bundle may have broken loose from a barge.
A good example of the fragility of poor countries to energy depletion and price inflation.
Subsidies were removed from propane used for car fuel causing the price to rise from US$0.14 to $0.28 per liter in Kazakhstan resulting in violent riots with many dead.
Imagine what would happen if they had to pay US$0.69 per liter of propane that I pay here in Canada.
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-explainer-why-did-fuel-prices-spike-bringing-protesters-out-onto-the-streets
Nice tweet by Tim Garrett on the events in Kazakhstan
“Wondering if mass riots are accounted for in Integrated Assessment Models that prescribe carbon pricing”
Also news of a new podcast with him on Planet Critical today.
Also Art Berman has a fantastic article imo on overshoot, population renewables etc. Well worth a read
https://www.artberman.com/2022/01/05/the-climate-change-trip-to-abilene/
Too much information-hard to keep up. I think I need to make a list of essentials (starting with denial of course) to which I always go back to, in the face of the avalanche of information. It sometimes feels like we’re amusing ourselves to death not with trivialities, as feared by Neil Postman, but with information although, of course, that is probably trivial in the scheme of things as well.
Hopefully James has forgotten to pay as usual or even better is preparing a new article and needs a bit of peace and quiet.
The population of Kazakhstan tripled between 1950 and 2020 which is about par for the course.
The Methane chart you posted is pretty eye-catching in a bad way. If the permafrost is giving up its methane reserves because of the heat up North then that seems to be a bit of a problem .
Excellent article by Art Berman. Thanks for sharing it.
Thanks for the Art Berman link. Very good.
I think Berman underestimates the oil supply decline rate once the debt bubble pops, and the export land model bites, and social unrest disrupts infrastructure, and wars begin over what remains, but Berman is much more knowledgeable than me so I may be wrong.
I listened to Garrett’s interview.
His use of the term “capitalism” muddies and confuses the issue. Capitalism includes among other things property rights, contract law, and an opportunity for personal reward. The issue that is central to Garrett’s thesis is the monetary system.
We should focus on whether it is possible to switch from a debt backed fractional reserve monetary system (which every country uses and requires infinite growth) to an energy backed full reserve system (which might be sustainable).
Every “ism” (communism, socialism, fascism, etc.) uses a debt backed fractional reserve monetary system and they’re all unsustainable. Capitalism is the best system for achieving growth when there are no limits to growth like affordable energy depletion and climate change.
The core issue now is how to shrink the economy without destroying civil society and worsening our destruction of the planet’s ecosystems.
https://www.planetcritical.com/p/the-thermodynamics-of-collapse
It’s commonly said the Arctic is warming up twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Try doubling that.
“We demonstrate the Arctic is likely warming over 4 times faster than the rest of the world, some 3-4 times the global average, with higher rates found both for more recent intervals as well as more accurate latitudinal boundaries.”
Peter Jacobs NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/898204
There were a lot more impressive space achievements this year than this 60+ year old brain was aware of until now. Viewed from an un-denial perspective, we’re celebrating our ever more creative ways of burning the remaining fossil energy even faster, without even dimly acknowledging the consequences.
So I haven’t watched “Don’t Look Up” yet but I’ve been reading the reviews and I’m pretty sure I already know one of the things my review someday will say.
The producers think they’re clever and aware by satirizing our species’ denial of climate change.
Thing is, low cost energy depletion is going to take out modernity and most of our population long before climate change.
Once again, the amazing power of human denial as explained by MORT is on full display.
Even those who think they see reality, don’t.
I really enjoyed the movie. I did think it funny that the makers of the film are concerned about climate change, and yet chose to burn lots of carbon making a dumb movie that avoids the issue they really care about, while making fun of people for exhibiting the same behaviour. how meta! I wonder if Leo is still flying private jet to climate change conferences…
I also chose to waste the carbons by streaming it from Netflix 🙂
My family and I got COVID last week (all doing fine, minor cold) so I had time to watch it. I agree with all the criticisms about the movie, but I also enjoyed it more than I would have thought. Hipocrisy, denial, etc. is all true – but you can only ask for so much if you’re looking for entertainment these days!
Glad your covid experience was mild. Same experience for a close relative. Maybe we’ll get lucky and omicron will be the vaccine we hoped for at the beginning.
I will watch DLU. I find it remarkable that almost everyone that worries about our future is oblivious to the threat that is the most certain, the closest, and the most destructive to modern civilization. FYI, I lump war in with peak oil because it will probably be energy induced scarcity that causes a nuclear exchange.
Yes, I agree with you fully. Doesn’t the US posturing (like we are still the predominant superpower) toward Russia about Ukraine seen kinda stupid/suicidal? I imagine we would sanction them for an invasion and they would turn off all the oil/gas to Europe. Hypersonic weapons anyone?
Nukes in response?
Scary indeed.
AJ
Every covid rock has something slimy under it. El gato malo turns another rock over today.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-dont-public-health-agencies-and