El gato malo does more intelligent analysis in a week than the idiots in our governments do in a year.
Today’s analysis suggests Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche was correct in predicting that applying a leaky vaccine effective at preventing sickness in the middle of a pandemic was a very bad idea.
all a virus wants is to replicate. “make a copy of me and pass it on.” that’s the biological imperative of the selfish gene. excel at it, you win. fail, you disappear. simple as that.
killing or harming the host is maladaptive to viral spread. it’s like burning down your own house with your car in the garage. now you have nowhere to live and no way to get around. that’s not a recipe for reproductive fitness.
so viruses evolve to become less, not more virulent. they do not want to kill you. ideally, they’d like to help you. figure out how to be a useful symbiote, and you get a huge boost in propagation. (mitochondria were probably bacteria that were so useful, all our cells incorporated them.)
so seeing case fatality rate (CFR) rise in a variant of a virus is like watching water flow uphill. it’s not supposed to do that and when it does, you need to suspect some external force acting on it.
and we’re seeing water flow uphill here.
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is rising for Delta and is probably not caused by Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) or Original Antigenic Sin (OAS) because CFR is rising in both vaccinated and unvaccinated, and is not rising in previously infected, and Vaccine Efficacy (VE) for deaths remains good.
- The most probable explanation is Vaccine Mediated Evolution (VME) in which a leaky vaccine that keeps the host healthy causes the virus to evolve to a more deadly variant.
- Vaccine Efficacy (VE) on spread is negative (bad) because infected people don’t know they’re infected which accelerates spread.
- Everyone is harmed but unvaccinated are worse off creating the illusion that the vaccines are a good idea.
it’s just simple math. if we do something to one group that makes their death rate rise from 1 to 2 per 100 but that also makes the death rate in another group rise from 1 to 4 per 100, that looks like a VE of 50%. in reality, it’s killing 100% more vaxxed people and 300% more of the unvaxxed.
mistaking that gas pedal for the brake and pushing ever harder when you fail to slow would represent an accelerating disaster curve.
I like that el gato malo seeks to prove himself wrong. That’s a strong signal for someone with integrity and intelligence that we should trust.
it’s still, or course, possible that i’m wrong, but this is looking more and more like it has to be the answer. i can find nothing else fits the facts and the facts themselves are weird enough that “it’s just normal” does not look like a satisfying explanation either and we have enough features here that we can really start testing our puzzle pieces. this one aligns in an AWFUL lot of places.
for something this odd to happen, it takes a truly uncommon exogenous stressor.
i’m just not seeing what else it could be than vaccine mediated selection for hotter variants driving pernicious delta evolution.
so, i’m putting this out to you all to see if you can find some other explanation for what’s going on that fits these facts.
looking forward to the peer review as, honestly, i hope i’m wrong here. this is not an outcome that anyone wants. it’s the nightmare scenario both as a pandemic and as a political horror in the making as if this was an “own-goal”, what would the experts and politicians that pushed this plan not be willing to do to avoid accepting the blame?
because this is career or pharma franchise polonium, and that’s if you’re lucky.
I also very much like that el gato malo does not subscribe to crazy conspiracies that lack evidence. I would of course augment el gato malo’s explanation by including an element of genetic reality denial in our leaders.
“But what is the end game if purposefully designed this way?”
i don’t think it was. i think these fools really thought mRNA and adenovirus carrier vaccines would be sterilizing.
they pushed them as herd immunity.
having it all fall apart cornered them but by the time they knew it, they were “pot committed” and had already vaxxed 100’s of millions of people.
this has been this shiny tech they have been trying to make work (and recoup money on) for decades and failing over and over.
i doubt this was deliberate. it was just stunningly arrogant and reckless.
So now the million dollar question:
Assuming a better explanation does not emerge, what should an unvaccinated person do?
Prioritizing self-preservation this analysis suggests one should either:
- get vaccinated, or
- acquire natural immunity by deliberately getting infected before the variants become more deadly, and apply early treatment protocols to maximize the probability of a successful recovery.
Choosing to get vaccinated makes the most sense if:
- you are in a high risk group (old or obese)
- you do not care about worsening the overall outcome for both vaccinated and unvaccinated.
Choosing natural immunity makes the most sense if:
- you are in a low risk group
- you are concerned about the yet to be established long term health effects of the novel vaccines
- you want to be a good citizen and do what is best for everyone.
I’m old but not obese which makes the choice difficult.
I’m going to watch the data and hope for a better explanation to emerge for a while longer before making a decision.
You can’t make this shit up: observe that our “leaders” are pushing hard in exactly the opposite direction of what wise leaders would do if this VME hypothesis is correct:
- stop further vaccination of low risk people
- start collecting the data necessary to prove or disprove this hypothesis
- promote healthy immune systems (vitamin D, weight loss, etc.)
- aggressively evaluate and deploy promising early treatment protocols (Ivermectin etc.)
- aggressively investigate root causes and modify policies to prevent a recurrence.
One more observation to make you admire our “leaders” even less:
the same NIH that was funding the GoF research in wuhan miraculously had the viral code to drop into the moderna mRNA vaccine in under 2 weeks.
that always smelled like a sushi bar dumpster.
In a paper today, Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche argues that boosters will probably boost the virulence of Delta rather than long term protection from severe disease.
Israel is misreading their booster results by only tracking booster effectiveness for 12 days.
El gato malo reviewed new UK data today which supports his Vaccine Mediated Evolution (VME) hypothesis.
Rate of cases down 30% from a year ago. CFR up 3x since June.
getting 50% protection from a tripling in virulence caused by the vaccines is still a net loser for the vaccinated. and it’s savage for the unvaccinated. everyone loses. and this evolution is ongoing.
establishing what is going on here should be the all hands on deck mission of global public health right now.
none of us want to be living in the world where we leaky-vaxxed ourselves into a second pandemic by reversing the evolution of one that was about to go endemic and harmless.
that’s a terrible place to be.
but if that IS where we are, we need to know, and we need to know right now.
I keep searching for a rational reason for the obsession with 100% vaccination, other than assuming every health official in every country of the world is corrupt, because that seems improbable.
What if they’re aware of the Vaccine Mediated Evolution (VME) trend and know that their mistake of vaccinating more than the high risk with a leaky vaccine will kill many more unvaccinated than vaccinated?
They can’t disclose the real reason for the push for 100% because they would lose their credibility and jobs.
This would also explain why they’re so willing to accept possible long term vaccine side effects in low risk children.
It’s analogous to continuing to print money long after it no longer provides a net benefit, because you know if you stop many will be harmed on your watch, and if you continue, many more may be harmed in the future, but it will be on someone else’s watch, and maybe someone will think of something by then.
A fresh, intelligent, clean sheet, big picture review of vaccine efficacy vs. risk. I remain impressed with el gato malo’s productivity and clarity of thought.
– measuring vaccine efficacy as % reduction in likelihood of severe outcomes can be misleading
– we must also measure absolute risk reduction. 50% drop from 20% risk is very different from 50% drop on 0.2% risk
– vaccines seem to show % efficacy in reducing hospitalization and death
– but for the young, healthy, and recovered, risk was already so low that the absolute drop does not look like good risk/reward vs side effect profile of the vaccines
– vaccines do not provide sterilizing protection against spread and seem to make it worse. there is no case to be made for societal obligation to vaccinate to protect others.
– mandating vaccination rather than allowing personal choice based on individual circumstance will inflict net harm on a great many people
– that’s immoral and represents medical malpractice