Nate Hagens recently presented an updated version of his excellent overview of human overshoot.
I still consider Nate’s talks to be the best big picture view available anywhere.
Nate Hagens recently presented an updated version of his excellent overview of human overshoot.
I still consider Nate’s talks to be the best big picture view available anywhere.
This denial thingy is amazing.
Almost every time I find someone who has a deep understanding of one dimension of human overshoot I dig deeper and find they are in complete denial of other dimensions. Not just a little denial. I’m talking total non-scientific bat shit crazy denial. Wasdell. Anderson. Martenson. 10,000 climate scientists, etc.
The latest is Robert Marston Fanney. I’ve been appreciating his climate change blogs as he often seems to report on new issues first with excellent insights.
Then today he writes a blog on how renewable energy is going to save us. No data on carbon emissions to build out renewables or to maintain them or the impact on the environment. No data on cost and where the money will come from or the impact of falling net energy. No mention of the fact that we’ve already emitted enough to take us to at least 2 (and probably 4-6) degrees. Total bullshit. Capped off with the following reply to a reader’s comment:
“So let’s put this bit into context. Air travel currently represents about 3 percent of global carbon emissions. But its growth is certainly a matter of concern. Fortunately, there are a number of ways to reduce net carbon emissions from air travel including biofuels, hydrogen powered aircraft, lightweight batteries, and electric engines. Lighter than air airframes are also a potential solution. Though innovations for switching air travel to zero carbon solutions are among the least available currently, we can certainly provide incentive structures that push air travel in that direction.”
Fucking unbelievable. The only way to explain how a high intelligence person can be so willfully stupid in other domains is genetic denial.
One less blog to follow.
Welcome to the Renewable Energy Renaissance — Fight to End Fossil Fuel Burning is Now On
Some very bad things are happening at the north pole.
Disturbingly, what we’re seeing now starting to take shape is another warm air invasion of the Arctic with the potential to bring above-freezing temperatures to the North Pole during the long polar night. An odd and highly abnormal event that may again take place this Winter in just a few more days. If it does happen it will be yet another case of a never-before-seen warming event occurring in a record hot world.
To put such extraordinary temperatures into context, this predicted record polar warmth is in the range of 55 degrees (F) above normal for January. And for such a typically frigid region, these temperatures are more usual for June, July, or August.
The number of barrels of oil that a single ounce of gold can buy has never, ever been higher.
For the last 30 years, when the ratio of gold-to-oil spikes, something systemically serious occurs globally (as opposed to the usual bullshit “this is transitory” statements).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-17/what-crisis-goldoil-ratio-predicting-time
David Wasdell published a paper and video in September 2015 titled “Climate Dynamics: Facing the Harsh Realities of Now”.
http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html
Wasdell does an excellent job of showing that the models used by our leaders to craft climate change policies are grossly optimistic. He shows that we are already past 2 degrees and on a path for 10 degrees; that we must get back to less than 1 degree to be safe; and that the only way to do this is to stop using fossil energy AND remove CO2 from the air. So far so good up to page 28 of the 31 page report.
Then Wasdell gets into solutions on page 29 and falls apart with the usual lame blather about evil profitable fossil energy companies and how a transition to a solar energy economy will save us.
He does not recognize that many fossil energy companies were losing money with oil at $80, let alone today’s $30. He does not recognize the fact that the world uses about 16 T Watts of power nor the economic implications of reducing this. He demonstrates no understanding of the density, scalability, and quality limitations of solar energy. There is no discussion about shrinking the economy or reducing the population.
I’ve seen a lot of denial but this example is extreme. He’s clearly a very smart guy who understands better than most the severity of our predicament but is in total denial about what we can and/or need to do to improve the situation.
Wasdell concludes with:
“I have a dream: that humanity will break out of its state of denial and find the courage to face the harsh realities of now.”
He should start with his own denial.
The secrets to happiness:
The simple pleasures:
Here is a new video by Nick Breeze titled “1.5ºC: A New Boundary for Global Heating”.
At 3:30 Kevin Anderson, one of the climate scientists I respect, says the developed world must stop using fossil fuels by 2030-2035.
Gail Tverberg, the energy analyst with the best track record of predicting the future, says fossil energy production will be almost zero by 2035.
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/
Are these predictions a coincidence? Or do they have something to do with the earth’s carbon cycle and balance?
I don’t know but I suspect the dates are dependent on each other.
Maybe the answer can be found by looking at earth’s environment when fossil energy started to accumulate. Note to self: research this.
Kevin Anderson also says that in addition to stopping fossil energy use by 2035 we must draw down existing CO2. My understanding of the technologies is that this is not feasible and/or affordable. On the other hand, the decline in CO2 emissions may be faster than Anderson predicts due to the likelihood of a fast economic collapse that Anderson does not understand.
Will the inevitable collapse of civilization caused by fossil energy depletion occur in time to prevent runaway climate change?
Is this cause for hope or despair or both?
A nice essay on overshoot.
I could give you thousands of forest disappearing, deserts expanding, rivers drying up, water tables dropping, top soil disappearing, species going extinct, ocean fish disappearing, pollution and plastic waste killing sea birds, and on and on and on. But I will start with one example that exemplifies what is happening to the entire world, the Aral Sea.
What has been happening to the world can be exemplified by this short 3 minute video on the Aral Sea:
Something’s making funny noises in the engine room.
I wonder if printing money will work this time?
More oil would probably work better.