This is a comment by Hideaway with a CACTUS example from the Iran war that I haven’t seen anyone discuss.
I expect there are thousands of examples like this that will become apparent in the coming months.
To repeat my core CACTUS message: If you value modernity and want to keep it going as long as possible, we must spread awareness of CACTUS.
Because our leaders are CACTUS blind, they are destroying modernity for all countries, while believing they are protecting modernity for their own country.
USA has plenty of oil, so states the leader…
How much drill pipe does the USA have?? It manufacturers most of it’s drill pipe, so everything is OK.
Except it isn’t. Where does all the high grade steel come from that has to be used to make these pipes? The answer is mostly from Asia, plus some from Mexico and Canada, with a bit from Europe. Try over 65% from Asia.
Where does Asia get it’s high grade iron ore from?? Mostly Australia and some from Brazil, across the world.
What happens if this supply gets cut because of too expensive or unavailable diesel, bunker fuel and jet fuel (Australia’s iron ore production comes to a halt without jet fuel, as the mines are mostly FIFO (Fly In Fly Out!! from Perth 2,000km away).
Australia produces around 65% of the high grade iron ore sent to Asia, with Brazil providing most of the rest.
How long before China, Japan, South Korea stop exports of high grade finished billets and steel products, with no high grade iron ore coming into the country?? Not long at all, they will look after their own industries first, like every country is already doing.
Basically within 6 months most of the drilling in the USA will slow to a crawl or stop altogether as drill pipe becomes scarce. They could only make much weaker pipe in the USA because of the low grade iron ores full of impurities, without the processes in place to make this high grade. Nobody does this as it’s always been cheaper to just import low price high grade steel or iron ore to make high grade steel.
BTW how is anything repaired in the Gulf, if China and other Asian countries stop exporting all the high grade steel and steel products needed to repair everything?
It’s a nice catch 22 we are setting up with this war, Australia can’t export iron ore or grain without fuel, China/Asia can’t supply the finished products for repairs without the iron ore, the gulf can’t fix their broken infrastructure without sending oil to refineries in Asia, which need enough for their own citizens before they can send products to Australia. Also the gulf countries need to feed their own people with Australian grain to have the manpower to do the repairs, which leads to fertilizer that can’t leave the gulf, or LNG that gets turned into urea in China, that, that, that.
None of the media, nor any of the experts really wants to look at the real picture, some are starting to get ‘bits’ of it.
It’s denial at its finest…
April 4, 2026 addition
This post is just mainly about steel and iron ore, it could easily be about diesel, fertilizer and grains exported, or LNG, naptha and plastic packaging and insulation for electrical wires, or the sulphur route. The point being that if anyone thinks they are ‘safe’ anywhere in the world, then just wait until the feedback loops hit you unexpectedly, as no-one is interested in following the full ramifications of all the feedback loops.
As a recent example of how complex self adapting energy dissipative systems really work, we had the example of cyclone Narelle across Australia recently. It gained strength in the Coral Sea to the North East of Australia, drifted West reaching category 5 before hitting the mainland, where it lost intensity. This is likely just like the world economy that lost intensity during the depression of the 1930’s and during the second World war.
Then Cyclone Narelle went across the gulf of Carpenteria, picking up strength with a new energy source of warm sea water. This is also just like the world economy picked up strength again with the new energy source of oil allowing more coal and gas to also be gained in the following 25 years.
Then Cyclone Narelle again hit land across the Northern Territory and Northern Western Australia, again losing energy intensity, but still had enough to reach the warm ocean waters as it kept heading west. The world economy also lost intensity as the peak of USA oil production hit in 1970 and during the oil crisis of the early-mid 1970’s up to around 1982, with stagnant energy availability and vastly increasing costs.
Once again Cyclone Narelle picked up intensity as it travelled South West off the Coast of Western Australia in the warm tropical waters, just like the world economy picked up strength again from new oil fields of Alaska, the North Sea, lots of efficiency gains, then a massive increase in coal production from China, and huge increases in LNG production and transport over the next 25 or so years.
Then finally Cyclone Narelle made landfall around Exmouth on the Western Coast of Western Australia, moving South East across land where it finally dissipated as it lost enough of its energy sources to turn into a rain depression without much energy by the time it went South across the southern coast of Western Australia, totally dissipated.. The world economy has also likewise probably hit an event where so much energy is lost that the entire system can break down and dissipate into a minimal energy system, which is not good for the 8.3B humans part of this energy dissipative structure we call civilization.
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