Here are a couple more excellent talks by Nate Hagens. He is now concluding his talks with some modest advice on what people can do to prepare.
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crisis (10 July 2014)
Limits to Growth: Where We Are and What to Do About It (15 October 2014)
It’s refreshing to hear someone speak honestly and forcefully.
Climate is changing as humans put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With CO2 levels today around 400ppm, we are clearly committed to far more climate change, both in the near term, and well beyond our children’s future. A key question is how that change will occur. Abrupt climate changes are those that exceed our expectations, preparedness, and ability to adapt. Such changes challenge us economically, physically, and socially. This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what may be coming in the future.
~ James White, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research
“Grim News From NASA: West Antarctica’s Entire Flank Collapsing Toward Southern Ocean, At Least 15 Feet of Sea Level Rise Already Locked-in Worldwide”
Grim News From NASA: West Antarctica’s Entire Flank Collapsing Toward Southern Ocean
I need to get a small rant off my chest. I promised myself no finger-pointing on this site but I have to make an exception for Economists. With a total disregard for physical laws, the scientific method, and insufficient calculus skills to create a model that reflects reality, the embarrassing discipline of Economics makes it possible for anyone to prove anything. And they do. All the time. Not one economist in a hundred has a clue. And these people are the most important advisors to our governments. Perhaps it is the fact that economists can generate any answer to any question that makes them popular with politicians, who to get elected, must tell voters what they want to hear.
The only economist I listen to is Steve Keen. He has a lot of important things to say. What distinguishes him from the crowd, and you are really not going to believe this, is that he includes debt in his models. Do yah think debt might be important? Duh. He’s also well grounded in thermodynamics which is vital to understanding the economy.
Credit Money: How it Works and Why it Fails, Part 1
Credit Money: How it Works and Why it Fails, Part 2
Credit Money: How it Works and Why it Fails, Part 3
One of the best talks I’ve seen by an oil industry analyst.
The Center on Global Energy Policy hosted a presentation and discussion with Steven Kopits, Managing Director, Douglas-Westwood, on the different approaches to global oil market forecasting. Mr. Kopits’ remarks focused on both supply and demand-based methodologies, including how these models result in different assumptions and implications for oil supply (OPEC and non-OPEC), total oil demand and oil price. He also reviewed other key drivers such as changes in the transport sector and overall economic growth and discussed how these variables can further impact oil demand and supply.
I have read many books on astronomy and physics. Here are a few of the important ideas that stuck with me:
The amount we understand about the universe is quite remarkable and is something to be genuinely proud of as a member of the human species.
We have found no need for a god to explain anything in the universe, unless we want to assign a reason for the laws of physics being the way they are, in which case such a god would have no resemblance to any of the gods worshiped by our many religions.
I find it enlightening to contemplate the purpose or objective of the universe.
Since the universe started as high quality dense energy and its destination is low quality diffuse energy it is reasonable to state that the objective of the universe is to degrade energy.
Structures and mechanisms which degrade energy can and will form provided they are consistent with the laws of physics. Those structures and mechanisms which degrade energy the most effectively are the most likely to exist.
Another way to think about this is that wherever an energy gradient exists, things (work) can happen, and given enough time they will happen, provided the laws of physics permit it.
This is important because life is an excellent mechanism for degrading energy. Life is thus probable everywhere in the universe that has conditions that permit it to exist.
Humans are the Earth’s most effective species at degrading energy. We dominate the planet because of this talent, and although in the process we are causing the extinction of many other species and probably causing our own collapse, it is interesting to observe that humans are doing what the universe wants. That is, burning all of the fossil energy as quickly as possible to convert it into low quality waste heat thus helping the universe to arrive at its destination as quickly as possible.
If humans had not learned to exploit fossil energy then some other species would probably have evolved to exploit this energy gradient.
It is probable that intelligent life has evolved many (but not too many) times in the universe but always collapses shortly after it learns how to exploit fossil energy. This may explain why we have not heard from any other intelligent life despite years of listening.
This interactive tool titled The Scale of the Universe 2 by Cary Huang is excellent for helping to visualize our place in the universe:
Or if you prefer to watch it as a video:
Many people understand pieces of our predicament. Very few understand all of the pieces.
Nate Hagens has the best big picture understanding of anyone I know.
Nate has a new blog called The Monkey Trap that he set up after the The Oil Drum closed down.
Over the years I have collected a large library of books, articles, and video. If I had to chose only one item that best explains what is going on, this talk by Nate Hagens would be it.
Enjoy.
And here is a different version of the same talk targeted at a younger audience with less background knowledge.
This talk by Jeremy Jackson nails the causes, severity, and urgency of our overshoot, and what we need to do in response.
Here is a classic by physicist Tom Murphy.
This is my favorite talk on limits to growth, the most important topic almost no one discusses, including people who should know better, like the Green Party.
Note that Murphy does not mention the explosive worldwide growth in debt, which is the only reason the game has continued longer than engineers like myself predicted it should.
The problem with our reliance on debt is that when the correction comes, it will be much more violent and damaging than it needed to be, which is another topic that the Green Party, and almost everyone else, does not discuss.
In summary, the most important things we should be discussing, are the things we never discuss.
Isn’t that an amazing behavior for an otherwise intelligent species?
un-Denial 