Today’s guest post by Preston Howard discusses an issue central to our overshoot predicament that is often ignored: The Maximum Power Principle (MPP). The MPP states that life optimizes for maximize power, not maximum efficiency, and implies that life does not look forward in time to consider the consequences of maximizing power today.
While preparing an initial report for Florida’s first Area of Critical State Concern1 in 1972, I had the immense good fortune to spend time with Howard T. Odum, an environmental engineering scientist who directed the Wetlands Center at the University of Florida. The area of state concern was the Big Cypress Preserve adjacent to the Florida Everglades. Dr Odum and several of his graduate students had ongoing studies in the area. In informal conversations, Dr Odum explained the Maximum Power Principle as described below. I believe it presents Humanity’s current situation better than anything I have seen about global warming, overshoot, or climate collapse. However, to my knowledge no one has mentioned it in any serious article except Gail Tverberg in her articles about resource consumption.
To understand the Maximum Power Principle2, let us imagine a square island, barren of any vegetation. As happened many times in Florida, suppose our island was created by fill where a shipping channel had been deepened. Situated close to the seaport, someone intended to build something on the new island, but permitting requirements and other administrative delays where taking “forever.” (These details provide a “context” for the discussion.)
The barren island does not remain barren for long, as plants soon begin to grow on it. The solar energy that bathes the island provides abundant energy for the early pioneer plants. Seeds blow in on the wind. Some may wash ashore. Birds drop some. Those initial plants found a world filled with more (solar) energy than they could use. In this bounty they made their best efforts to use as much as they could and to grow as fast as possible, even at the expense of wasting energy by not using it efficiently.
Point 1: The Maximum Power Principle states when energy is abundant, those organisms survive best that maximize their use of energy, even if they are wasteful in how they use it (because the supply of available energy is “infinite” in a relative sense).
Weeds grow quickly, and they soon cover most of our imaginary island. The fact that weeds are wasteful in how they use available energy does not matter, because there is plenty of solar energy for all the plants.
Slower growing, but more efficient, plants also germinate, but they compete poorly because higher foliage from the faster growing weeds blocks energy-rich sunlight from the young trees and shrubs. Perhaps by chance some of these seeds fall on a higher elevation where weeds cannot easily block them from the sun. Or, perhaps they are near the shoreline, where the water provides weed-free access to adequate solar energy along the water’s edge. If these more efficient shrubs and tree seedlings find niches to assist their growth, they can survive even though they cannot compete well against the weeds directly.
In time, vegetation covers our imaginary island. Now the situation changes dramatically concerning the Maximum Power Principle.
Point 2: When the energy supply is limited, those organisms compete best that maximize the efficient use of the energy available to them.
Now every plant on our island has neighbors nearby, pushing leafy branches where a plant wants its own leaves to collect sunlight. Plants no longer have access to unlimited energy where growth is maximized even if excess energy is wasted. Soon there is no energy to waste. Plants find it difficult to obtain all the energy they desire, and the increasing competition with other plants for available energy adversely affects their growth.
In this new environment the struggling tree seedlings and shrubs have an advantage because they use available energy more efficiently than the weeds. Over time these changes allow shrubs to win out against the inefficient weeds, just as the trees will — in time — overpower the shrubs.
Examples of the Maximum Power Principle
As a general rule, all biological life embraces the Maximum Power Principle. If a life form confronts an energy source it can use, it succeeds best if it uses it as the Maximum Power Principle indicates. To understand the Maximum Power Principle as it impacts the real world, let’s look at a few examples.
Example 1: Paramecium in petri dish3. Paramecium are single-cell organisms that live in water and consume a variety of foods, including yeast. Here, we examine where we put several paramecium in a petri dish with an abundance of yeast. The buffet has been served, and the paramecium begin to consume the yeast. The paramecium flourish, reproducing more and more paramecium as the yeast is slowly consumed. Until… until there is no more yeast to consume, at which time the (now many) paramecium all die of starvation. Unfortunately, there is no natural system to suggest to the paramecium problems they may encounter if they eat all the yeast as fast as they can.
Sometimes events occur that regulate unrestrained growth that otherwise harms an organism in the long run. For example, if yeast gets down to 10% of the initial amount, suppose a lab assistant regularly restores it to 25% of the initial amount. In this situation the paramecium population fluctuates with the availability of yeast.
Example 2: Deer on the Kaibab Plateau4. The Kaibab Plateau is a relatively inaccessible area on the north side of the Grand Canyon comprised of approximately 700,000 acres. In 1907 there were an estimated 4,000 deer resident on the plateau, in addition to pumas and wolves, which were predators of the deer. The predators and the prey maintained a relative balance with one another. Between 1907 and 1923 a successful effort removed most of the predators, allowing the deer population to increase. By 1925 the deer population grew to more than 100,000, which was far in excess of the carrying capacity of the vegetation available on the plateau. All vegetation was consumed. Over 40% of the herd died in two successive winters, and the deer population plummeted to around 10,000. There it stabilized because of the significantly compromised vegetation available for food. (Earlier estimates suggested the Plateau could originally support 30,000 deer).
Example 3: Deer on St Matthew Island5. St Matthew Island is a remote island in the Bering Sea, north of the Aleutian Island chain in Alaska. During World War 2, the United States needed to know whether or not Japan attacked the island. The US Coast Guard established a radio navigational system on the island. It was understood that the 19-member team on St Matthew could never defend the island, but before capture the team could alert HQ by radio in the event it was invaded by Japanese soldiers. Because the island is so remote, the military was unsure whether it could provide regular supplies. As a backup food source, the US relocated 29 reindeer to the island so the radio team would not starve. For the deer, the buffet had just been served! St Matthew is 32 miles long and 4 miles wide, and it was covered with lichen, a favorite food of reindeer.
When World War 2 ended, the radio team left the island, but the reindeer remained. In 1957 Dr David Klein, (then) a professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, visited the island with a graduate student. They determined that the 29 original reindeer had grown to a population of 1,300. When Dr Klein returned a second time, in 1963, the reindeer population had grown to 6,000, or almost 50 reindeer per square mile. Just like the paramecium, this did not look good for the reindeer. Due to overconsumption, lichen was increasingly scarce. The winter of 1963-64 was one of the worst on record for that part of Alaska. In 1966 Dr Klein returned to St Matthew Island to find just 42 reindeer, including only one male. It had deformed antlers and probably could not reproduce. All the St Matthew Island deer perished during the next decade.
The Maximum Power Principle lesson: If resources allow, the organism should use the resources to grow as the tried-and-true way to survive best over the long run. Ecologically, there were no checks and balances to suggest that 600 reindeer could live on St Matthew Island, but 6,000 could not. This is important.
How Humanity Embraced the Maximum Power Principle
No animate life form is exempt from the Maximum Power Principle, not even Humans. Starting in the 1700s, Humans began using coal to power an increasingly industrialized Western society, starting primarily in Great Britain. Around 1850 oil was discovered in open ponds in Pennsylvania. Humanity soon found oil worked as well, and perhaps better, than coal. For the next 175 years Humanity (at least parts of it) had access to these energy-rich resources. And, just as the Maximum Power Principle dictates, Humanity used as much of these resources as it could get. Simply put, in 300 years Humanity harnessed the power of lightning and taught sand (silicon) to think6. Humanity electronically connected most of its 8 billion inhabitants and extended its presence into outer space. Humanity has no predator to threaten its dominance in any corner of the globe.
One might think Humanity’s success is guaranteed, except for a few things: First, the increasing scarcity of oil and coal and natural gas suddenly threatens to remove the punch-bowl from which Humanity has been feeding. Second, the carrying capacity of the Earth is far less than 8 billion humans unless we continue to supplement with increasingly scarce resources. And, last, our centuries-long party has now broken the Earth in ways Humanity cannot repair.
All the King’s horses and all the Queen’s men, will never restore this spherical jewel, regardless of what we do. We have transitioned from a “grow as much as you can quickly” environment to a “use remaining energy resources as efficiently as possible” environment, but we refuse to notice. As increasing numbers suffer because we do not adapt, those with power and authority choose to continue as before because it enriches them. Except in small, cosmetic steps, we do not even try to save one another. Instead countries say to one another, “you go first,” and “no, you go first.” But, that’s how money talks in the United States, where corporations are declared to be people under law. The job of corporate citizens is to enrich their shareholders, not to act in concert with environmental constraints.
Humanity’s Future Foretold
Nonetheless, one can take heart. Humanity is right where it is supposed to be. We will continue to use energy that remains available to us to build electric cars and windmills and nuclear weapons as we now increasingly compete against one another. And, just like the deer and the paramecium, we are certain to collapse as critical resources dwindle. The Maximum Power Principle is deeply embedded in all life, and — like it or not — we are no exception.
We are foolish if we think we can escape7 the Maximum Power Principle. As fast as scientists tell us of the need to address looming dangers (starting with global population concerns in the 1960s), and as fast as people far and wide demand global change, and as carefully as the United Nations forces all countries to accept the need for step-by-step remediation, it will never happen. We will continue to burn more coal when oil is scarce. And we will continue to drill for increasingly hard-to-extract oil until our electronic interconnected house of cards crumbles around us. This behavior is hard-wired at the cellular level, allowing us little choice concerning whether or not to embrace the Maximum Power Principle.
One might ask when this catastrophe will occur. Don’t look now, but it is occurring before your very eyes. Regardless of whatever we do at this point, we have broken the World, and we cannot fix it. Our actions cause extinction of hundreds of living organisms8 every month. Human activity warmed the globe to the point that arable land is less available, decreasing the global food supply. Actions with unintended effects melt polar and glacial ice, and yet have not kept seawater temperatures from increasing. We now discover fish cannot live in the warmer ocean water. Rising ocean water and weather extremes adversely impact Human settlement across every corner of the globe. Unfortunately the Maximum Power Principle does not allow do-overs.
The Earth suffers from a runaway infestation of Humanity. Just like the paramecium, as necessary resources increasingly become unavailable Homo sapiens will join the long list of extinct flora and fauna previously unable to survive a changing world. But the Earth will not die. After Humanity’s demise, the Earth will heal itself. This could happen quickly. Perhaps in less than an eon (2250 years), a “blink of the eye” in planetary time. It would be nice to think Humanity might recognize its bleak future, and would attempt to facilitate the successful transition of whatever life manifests itself after Humanity’s exit. That, however, is not likely because of the Maximum Power Principle.
If I knew today was Humanity’s final day to exist, I would most want to plant a tree.9
Addendum
I would be remiss not to call attention to the single situation I know where Humanity acted contrary to the Maximum Power Principle and instead chose to minimize present energy use in return for greater resource bounty in the future. American “First Peoples” — at least some of them — chose to plant corn from larger husks while instead eating only corn from the smaller husks. Over time, this gave them a larger harvest.
While this may seem “obvious” to someone today, it embraces action directly contrary to that expected by the Maximum Power Principle. Somewhere in their historic past someone in those tribes stood before others and suggested they eat less now in return for the promise of more food in the future. I expect whoever it was, she probably convinced the other women (who tended the plants) and never mentioned it to the men who were perhaps out hunting.
Sources and Notes
1Howard, P. (1974) “The use of vegetation in the design of regulations pertaining to coastal development of the Big Cypress critical area.” Proceedings of the First Annual Conference on Restoration of Coastal Vegetation in Florida (Tampa, Florida: p. 16).
2Odum, H. T. and Odum, E. C., (1976) Energy Basis for Man and Nature. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company (pp. 39-40). [Co-author E. C. Odum was Howard Odum’s wife and research partner. Not to be confused with Eugene Odum, below.]
also
2Lotka, A. J. (1956) Elements of mathematical biology. New York: Dover Publications, Inc. (p. 357). [Here described as the Law of Evolution.]
3Lotka, A. J. (1956) again. [Here described using bacteria, while noting, “… a man, for example, may be regarded as a population of cells.” (Lotka’s emphasis.)]
4Odum, E. P. (1959) Fundamentals of Ecology. Philadelphia: W. B. Saunders Company (pp. 239-240). [This was the first college-level textbook to include the word “Ecology” in its title. Eugene Odum wrote this book “with” Howard Odum, who provided an energy basis for nature.]
5Klein, D. R. (1968) “The introduction, increase, and crash of reindeer on St. Matthew Island. J. Wildlife Management 32: 350-367. Source: https://www.geo.arizona.edu/Antevs/nats104/00lect21reindeer.html on 28-Jul-2023. [Retrieved on 28-Jul-2023.]
6Lesser, H. G. (1984) “Microprocessor pioneer and industry mover.” Computer Accessories and Peripherals, 1:5 (p. 69+) [Quoting Harold Lee: “One good way to look at our (computer) industry is that, literally, within the last three hundred years, we’ve harnessed lightning and used it to teach sand how to think.”]
7Schalatek, L. (2021) “Broken Promises – Developed countries fail to keep their 100 billion dollar climate pledge.” Source: https://us.boell.org/en/2021/10/25/broken-promises-developed-countries-fail-keep-their-100-billion-dollar-climate-pledge. [Retrieved on 7-Aug-2023, as just one example of many available.]
8Pope, K. (2020) “Plant and animal species at risk of extinction.” Source: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/03/plant-and-animal-species-at-risk-of-extinction/ [Retrieved on: 8-Aug-2023, although many references address this issue.]
9Merwin, W. S. (quote) “On the last day of the world I would want to plant a tree.” [Apologies to Merwin (1927-2019), a Pulitzer Prize winner and United States poet laureate, for my alteration.]
About the Author
Preston Howard has a Masters degree is in geography and retired in 2011 after a wide-ranging career in data management. In 1972 he developed a simulation of seaport growth, the first of his many national and international publications and presentations. Today he lives in a log cabin in one of the more successful intentional communities in the United States.
Rob here again.
I do not know what Preston thinks of Dr. Ajit Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory however I believe that the MPP and MORT theories are both true and together are the primary cause of human overshoot.
The MPP governs biology just as the laws of thermodynamics govern the universe. Nothing in the universe may violate the laws of thermodynamics and no life may violate the MPP. How could it be otherwise given that life at its core is chemical replicators evolving to compete for finite energy and resources?
Assuming that the MPP governs all life and cannot be overridden, how is it possible for an intelligence to exist in the universe that is smart enough to understand that behaving in accordance with the MPP will destroy itself and all that it cares about?
A solution that evolution discovered on this planet, and perhaps the only solution possible on any planet, is to prevent high intelligence from emerging unless it simultaneously evolves a tendency to deny unpleasant realities, like for example, the fact that it is in overshoot. Otherwise the intelligence might override the MPP to reduce suffering and possible extinction, and the replicators that created the intelligence won’t permit that.
Apparently it’s quite improbable and/or difficult to simultaneously evolve high intelligence with denial because it has occurred only once on this planet, despite the obvious fitness advantages of high intelligence.
The MPP and MORT together explain why we seem to have no free will to do anything wise about overshoot. They also explain why an honest assessment of our responses to overshoot symptoms would conclude we are doing the opposite of what a wise intelligent species with free will should do.
Despite this bleak assessment I’ll continue to push awareness of MORT and population reduction, just in case I’m wrong and there is a way to override denial and MPP, because our existence on this planet is so rare and precious, and because there is much suffering coming soon that could be reduced.
It’s possible that Preston disagrees with my opinions on MORT. That’s OK because even if I’m wrong, Preston’s points about the MPP are still probably correct.
un-Denial 
Layers and layers and layers of things wrong with covid.
This must watch discussion between Dr. Jay Couey and Dr. Joseph Lee today will blow your mind.
I’m still digesting and will have to watch again but I think they’re saying:
1) The people who invented and approved the mRNA substance that was coerced into people don’t understand how it works. Their model of how mRNA works is completely wrong.
2) The mRNA benefit detected in the clinical trials had nothing to do with antibodies and the same benefit could have been achieved with less risky medicines.
3) This means the mRNA is a medicine and not a vaccine, and it is policy to never mandate medicines because risks always accompany benefits.
4) Half of vaccines in use today cause clotting and probably contribute to many health problems including autism in children. This means half of all vaccines in use today must be withdrawn from the market. The science is tight and there is no rebuttal to the risk.
5) The covid deaths in the early days were all caused by incorrect treatment.
6) There never was a rapidly spreading virus released from Wuhan – not sure this is exactly what they’re claiming, have to listen again.
7) Dr. Lee communicated much of the above in writing to officials in the early days so many will be in trouble when these issues work their ways through the courts as people sue.
8) Just prior to covid there was a supreme court ruling that made it difficult to patent monoclonal antibodies. This explains why mRNA is now the preferred method for making antibodies since intellectual property can be protected and money can be made.
9) What few yet know is that focusing on antibodies is not effective.
P.S. I followed Jay Couey in the early days because I knew he was super smart with high integrity. I dropped him because I found him to be too cryptic and because he seemed to be off in the weeds. Now I’m starting to understand what’s up with him. He believes all of the narratives were wrong and it looks like he has assembled a big piece of the puzzle.
P.P.S. I have for a long time considered Dr. Robert Malone to be a hero with impeccable integrity in this story. A few weeks ago someone unknown to me dropped a long first comment here attacking Malone. I did not approve it because it was a lengthy boiler plate I found posted elsewhere and seemed to contradict my hundreds of hours of following Malone. In today’s interview evidence is presented that Malone and McCullough may actually be helping Fauci cover up a medical mistake bigger than covid.
P.P.S. Audio is bad for first 20 minutes then clears up. Start around 1:23:00 if you’re short of time.
https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1955162291
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From Dr. Lee’s site:
https://lungvirus.com/cats-and-rat-traps
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Notice the benches are empty. Brilliant evidence that Dr. Ajit Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition theory is correct. Our species exists because it evolved to deny unpleasant realities.
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Chuck Watson with Nate Hagens today.
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Biggest issue that stood out for me: “Our current leaders have no knowledge or expertise.”
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Chuck Watkins elaborates on his discussion with Nate Hagens.
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Geert Vanden Bossche predicts how the middle east tensions might end without full scale war.
https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/man-proposes-but-eventually-nature
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Rather than admitting their mistake and withdrawing mRNA from the market the “leaders” in my country are normalizing heart attacks in children.
https://sheldonyakiwchuk.substack.com/p/what-the-hell-is-this
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The CDC in the U.S. still recommends the mRNA for everyone over 6 months.
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Have not watched yet but I expect it will be excellent.
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Nice to see they briefly touched on the possibility of a population reduction agenda behind covid. Also nice to see that Bret totally gets peak oil. I left a message for him that the last piece he needs to make sense of the insanity is an understanding of MORT.
Later Bret discloses that he’s gone full doomer and that our species has very little hope.
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One of the best podcasts I’ve heard with Chris and Brett ever Absolutely worth all the time, and listen to it while I was digging in the garden!
AJ
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This was a really good conversation 🙂
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Hard to sift signal from noise these days. If true, I think this is significant.
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxOz8NMCaaYGLk7ho0Djc4tSG07I9Q-zvK
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A number of the blogs I read have postulated that this move by China is intended to send the message to Israel/U.S. that China will use it’s anti-missile weapons to help protect Iran from Israel destroying Iran with it’s nukes. Also the move by Russia to station planes with hypersonic weapons on continual patrol over the Black Sea is intended to send a similar message that they intend on protecting their friends (Syria, Iran, etc.) from U.S. intervention. As Chuck Watson said we are moving up the escalation ladder. Scary times.
AJ
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What’s you’re best guess of what happens next?
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I guess what happens next., depends on all the leaders relative assessment of the risk of their actions. I think China and Russia and Iran know what they’re walking into and want to avoid nuclear Armageddon. I don’t think Biden, Sullivan, Newland, and Blinken have any clue whatsoever about the stakes here. Scary.
AJ
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I agree. It’s hard to accept but US leadership has zero wisdom or intelligence today. What do you think caused this?
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I think it started with the myth that we were the first democracy since Athens. And it came about because of a incorrect belief that we won world war II. It was personified with Biden in his most recent speech when he quoted Madeline Albright that the US is the one essential nation. Such hubris – “Pride goeth before the fall”.
AJ
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It’s remarkable that these leaders with children and grandchildren are able to deny the possibility and implications of nuclear war.
I guess it’s no different than health care “experts” injecting their own children with mRNA.
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Must watch clip from full discussion linked above between Dr. Jay Couey and Dr. Joseph Lee.
mRNA forms a “matrix of shit” that causes clotting.
The bonus clip explains why so many people died, actually they were murdered, in the early days of covid.
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Dr. Joseph Lee is a f**king pit bull with rabies. I’ve never seen anyone be so aggressive. He’s going after all the senior regulators that failed to do their jobs with mRNA. I haven’t been so encouraged since the truckers converged on my country’s capital.
Love his Twitter bio: “The best papertrail on earth to put Fauci in Prison for life.”
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Yah for New Zealand whistle blowers. We need to burn our leaders.
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Hi Rob. I’ve got plenty of skepticism and concerns about our governments Covid response but this post from Martenson and the video from Liz Gunn have no actual evidence or cited data that I can find to backup her claims. I’m very surprised Mertenson has shared the video given he’s “all about the data.”
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Yes, I noticed that too. I think she claims whistleblowers wanted to release the data after the election. Does she have a good track record of integrity?
Please let us know if you hear anything in NZ.
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Yeah I’m sceptical of her claims too. Time will tell I guess.
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She was a journalist and TV news reader many years ago. She popped up again during the Covid period speaking out very strongly against our governments approach, mandates, vax passports etc. I haven’t followed her closely but what have seen is high on drama and low on data. I’d probably call her approach unscientific.
She started a political party this year and ran for parliament. In a speech announcing her political ambitions, she apparently “touched on: fluoride, 1080 (a mammalian pest control poison), Bill Gates, “gender programming”, the World Economic Forum, “glove-puppet” media, 15-minute cities, the “brown mafia”, and the “weather patterns [that] have been so odd”.
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Thanks! It’s so hard to find truth seeking intelligent people with integrity. 😦
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She is from one of our many new conspiracy theory parties in NZ 🙂
Who knows what to believe. NZers are incredible sheep. Our media are one of the worst on the planet – we essentially have zero independent investigative journalism.
I will also say in NZ for every story I have real on the ground knowledge of, the NZ media have reported at least 50% of the facts wrong. Not opinion, just plain facts.
As such, it is very hard to tell who is legit and who isn’t in NZ.
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Following his almost year long series of videos explaining how bad COVID-19 is and how to avoid its worst effects, he started to abandon a critical examination of the data. It was a stark change. So it’s no surprise to me.
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I wonder if his new wife has had a negative effect on him?? – they say you are the sum of the people you spend the most time with. He has really gone illuminati conspiracy wacko in the last year or so. I miss the old Chris
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To understand a man’s behavior look at how he makes a living. My guess is it’s tough to run a for-profit doomer web site without going into the weeds and telling people what they want to hear, like for example Chris’s frequent claim that bankers are to blame.
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I wouldn’t really describe it as a doomer website. He thinks there are solutions and he thinks people can prosper in the collapse. $30 per month is quite a high subscription rate. He did offer a lower level at, I think, about $9 per month but that has gone now, so he is presumably quite happy with the level of income he has at that higher rate.
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I should have said overshoot aware instead of doomer.
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Overpopulation and the Israel Palestine conflict.
https://overpopulation-project.com/the-catalyst-of-overpopulation-in-the-gaza-conflict/
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“Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution.” Clay Shirky
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From Tom Murphy:
Check the link for more.
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Hello everyone,
Scary heady days are here to stay, thank and bless you all for staying the course. Just popping my head above water for a moment to say I’m thinking of you and thanking you for the as ever enlightening and supportive discourse. We experienced a loss of power for nearly 48 hours the other day due to lightning strike of a nearby tree after wild weather, now internet is down for another week (I’m hotspotting from my cell phone)–nothing should be surprising but it easily proved again how vulnerable our society is.
In the middle of our family’s big clean up getting ready my mother’s house for sale (I think we’ve left it too late but have to try) we decided to shed some of our own possessions, including books. Monk, I would love to gift you my set of Judge Dee mystery books which I described earlier, they are great escapism reads and really give the flavour of Tang dynasty magisterial life. If you would like them, would it be all right with Rob to go through email with your postal address and I will ship them to you. It would please me so much that you have them to enjoy, as I have gotten so much from your offerings here on Rob’s life-saving site.
Sending all love and positive thoughts to all. This is really our moment to stand firm in witness and it’s been the highest privilege to do so together.
Namaste.
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My email is robmielcarski at gmail dot com.
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Gaia that’s so kind of you to think of me. Rob has my email so I can get in touch with you if you send an email to him. I’m loving the steel cut oats by the way. I found a NZ company makes them (Harraways from Dunedin)
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Hi monk,
That’s great you’re chowing down your oats! I thought you would like them! And I hope you will enjoy the books I’ll post over the ditch to you once you email me your address. (Thank you Rob for playing Postmaster!) Even if we never have the opportunity to meet face to face, I feel that through our gathering here we have found kindred spirits and that is already blessing enough.
Namaste, friend.
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Gaia wasn’t that storm something else! We woke up to the horses in the cow paddock and a knocked over fence. How they didn’t break their legs I don’t know. They completely snapped a pine post in half and broke the top two wires. I think we scored a couple of direct hits on the property. Scary actually.
The power was out again today all day thanks to last night’s wind. Second time this week. Really glad we put another rainwater tank at the top of the hill. Still have to pump the water up there but at least we have running water when there’s no power.
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Hi Perran,
Sorry for almost missing your reply but I am glad to hear that all is okay at your property and the animals hopefully have calmed down by now. Last week’s storm was the most dramatic we’ve ever experienced in our 24 years here. I found out that the lightning strike was a direct hit to the Californian Redwood tree in the park next to us, planted to honour local soldiers who died in WW1. The crew came to chop down half the tree, sad but now constant visual reminder that Nature does bat last!
I am sorry that we still haven’t found a time to meet up but I am certain the window of opportunity is coming closer and looking forward to it. Meanwhile, always good to see you here with the rest of Rob’s gang!
All the best to you and your family. Hope you have a lovely weekend (probably repairing fences?)
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I just read a part of the “Techno Optimists manifesto”. It is really a screed that reeks of hubris and grandiose delusions. https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/10/our-ugly-magnificence/
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Yikes! Do a find-and-replace from “technology” to “depleted non-renewable fossil energy” and it might be closer to the truth.
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Did Eclipse Now write this LOL?
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The Techno-optimist Manifesto meets Biophysical Reality.
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Marc Andreessen wrote this dreck? “The Precautionary Principle is the enemy”? what a jerk
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Gaia Gardener I finally tried steel cut oats! They are delicious, highly recommend 🙂
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Pollution linked to falling sperm counts.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/10/cocktail-of-chemical-pollutants-linked-to-falling-sperm-quality-in-research
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Before I die I’m going to figure out who’s telling the truth.
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The “maximum power principle” is in our genes:
All the surface symptoms we get upset about seem ridiculous once you realize what makes people tick and what drives them!
If you are reasonably intelligent, empathetic and don’t want to go crazy with depression in the face of tragedy, there is only one option:
LAUGH
and see that you can cope!
“Carpe diem” in this sense.
Laugh at yourself and the grotesque spectacle!
God is a comedian!
This is my result after 50 years of thinking!
From tragedy to comedy
Reduce information intake!
Doesn’t do any good!
Things take their course!
Saludos
El mar
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It’s a good idea to laugh at the clowns that lead us clowns.
Thanks for the wise words. Stay well El mar.
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If anyone has anything to say a guest post would be most welcome.
Send to robmielcarski at gmail dot com.
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Good one from Gail Tverberg today. She’s predicting wealthy countries with pension programs will collapse first and soon.
I thought this summary of our where we are today was particularly good:
Nice restatement of “green” energy realities:
I disagree with Gail’s conclusion. I recently read Rare Earth and do not think it implied a higher power. Rather, it showed how fortunate we are to be alive on a very special one-in-a-gazillion planets, at the peak of what may be possible in the universe, and why we should be ashamed for blowing it.
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The inexplicable blindness to science and data, the intolerance of expert dissenting voices, the ignoring of illegal/incompetent behavior in the likes of Fauci, the global coordination of most countries, and the improbability of pharma money being enough to explain all of this, continues to suggest covid was about something other than health care.
Comment by Tverberg:
Follow-up comment from Peaker:
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Perhaps now they’re quietly waiting for the virus to mutate into something deadly that can exploit the billions of damaged immune systems they’ve created.
Recall one of the energy depletion “solutions” Luke Gromen explained to Nate Hagens:
Sure would like to know if our leaders injected saline.
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Yeah, I don’t know why Gail feels it necessary to keep adding references to a higher power which might have a plan for us. It just makes a nonsense of her detailed analysis of our energy predicament.
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I suspect Gail has normal denial genes. Note that she appears perfectly happy with no stress. Themists with defective denial genes that think about the same topics as Gail tend to be depressed or disengaged from society.
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Biden genuinely believes that the US is the world’s indispensable country.
Ray McGovern points out this means all other countries are dispensable, which explains why the US is now hated and isolated by the majority.
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Big Insurance needs to gather their armies and meet Big Pharma in battle
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New video from Jack Alpert explains why 13.4 billion will die from starvation or conflict on our path from 8 billion to 600 million this century.
Meanwhile, no one wants to contemplate population reduction policies.
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But solar panels and electric dump trucks will somehow prevent this – fark
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I think you mean – polar sandals and eclectic dumb fucks will prevent this.
Best chance we have.
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We need to get rid of health cares services apart from pain relief and assisted dying. Closer to the natural way of dealing with overpopulation.
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Preston Howard, here …
What Mike said. Amen! But, this crazy society cannot abide any even-handed discussion of end-of-life issues that include a person’s right to say, “I’m ready to check out now.”
I expect the day will come when I feel I’m ready. I would like to have the jazzy Swiss device that looks like a star-fighter cockpit. The person gets in, presses the button, and it fills the small cabin with laughing gas. The user quickly passes, laughing themselves into whatever lies beyond. (Instead, I’ll probably have to engineer something else when I’m ready, assuming I don’t wind up in an extended living bed staring at the ceiling for years before passing.) We really need pro-active assisted dying.
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I agree! I tried to buy some Nembutal for a worst case SHTF scenario and it’s harder to get than heroin.
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Very good ideas but it would be much easier to foment panic with a PCR test dialed up to 11, and move contagious people into extended care homes, and block the use of antibiotics and other drugs like Ivermectin that are effective at treating sick people, and instead give them drugs like Remdesivir that do not work with side effects that kill many, and put them on ventilators that kill many, and do not tell anyone about simple things they could do to strengthen their immune systems like vitamin D, and then if they still survive, coerce them to inject a novel mRNA substance that does not prevent sickness or transmission but does weaken their immune system, causes permanent damage to their heart, creates blood clots, and reduces the fertility of women, and censor and discredit dissenting expert opinions, and for good measure, hide all-cause mortality data so no one can be sure of what’s going on.
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Easier, though not as effective – yet.
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Recall this tip from Col. Wilkerson:
Two carriers already there. Two more apparently on the way.
I’m guessing the Russians and Chinese know what Wilkerson knows.
Bought more sardines and topped up my gas tank today.
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As the historian A.J.P. Taylor said “No matter what political reasons are given for war, the underlying reason is always economic.”
So what are our masters planning here?
I wouldn’t have thought you could have two carriers and support (let alone four) steaming around the Med indefinitely (although I have no knowledge of these things). As with the Ukraine situation (which I presume is still ongoing) once Russia had mobilised their forces to the border they had to be used or stood down quickly. Just too expensive otherwise, apparently.
Is this going to be just a threat or another manifestation of The Export land Model coming into play. Gail had an interesting comment under her latest article
Look at the increase in how much of our oil the Iranians and the Russians are using. How very dare they!!
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It seems the lucky ones would rather fight than share.
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Yep, going to buy more rice, sardines, tuna, salmon and dried fruit at Costco today. Sure seems like WWIII is on it’s way. My only hope is that Putin and Xi are smarter than the idiots in the west.
AJ
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I think Putin and XI are much brighter than our leaders and will try to avoid war because they know if they’re patient the US will destroy itself. But I also think if red lines are crossed they will take the gloves off and everyone will lose.
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Australia’s The Juice Media runs hot and cold. Today’s episode on how everything’s going to shit is pretty good.
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I like people that can distill a complex topic down to its essence:
https://www.rintrah.nl/how-we-know-that-sars-cov-2-has-not-turned-into-just-another-mild-respiratory-virus/
I would add that side effects of mRNA like inflammation and clotting are simultaneously destroying the capital used for collateral.
Health Care joins Economics as another discipline that doesn’t have a clue.
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Everyone that I follow on WWIII is losing it.
I’m going for a walk.
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Very nice fall day. Looking down on my home.
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That is a very serene scene, Rob, thank you for sharing. So happy that you are a caretaker of this idyllic spot on our blue-green planet and wishing you many more days of peace and tranquil. I can only hope that some of us here will be so blessed to live out our lives in relative safety and comfort wherever we are placed.
Namaste, friends.
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10 Reasons why civilization will collapse. I was already aware of many of the things in this article but it is still sobering.
https://www.okdoomer.io/10-reasons-our-civilization-will-soon-collapse/.
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Nice to see Paul Beckwith has widened his perspective from a narrow focus on CO2.
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When something like that is presented, one thinks that the author is aware. But he did say, “I am not saying that we shouldn’t be producing wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Of course we should. We’re going to need them in order to transition to a post-carbon world once fossil fuels are too expensive to extract.” And this is after saying renewables require fossil fuels. Too many people just can’t think it all through. Without fossil fuels, there are no renewables. And even if we could build renewables with just the energy from renewables (as yet unproven), renewables themselves are not sustainable. The author said it in the article, renewables are not renewable, they are just rebuildable. A sustainable community will not have solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles. “The Transition” is neither possible, nor a pathway to sustainability.
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I don’t think that renewables can replace fossil fuels, but I do think that they can soften the landing.
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Can you say how they can soften the landing? The landing appears to be a return to some bygone age before civilisation. Any other hypothetical landing would just continue the ecosystem destruction and so there would be a further step down, where renewables will no longer be replaceable and, in many cases, can’t provide energy to a broken grid.
Renewables are a way to believe that modernism can continue. What we really need is a conversation about the reality of our predicament. Maybe there is a soft landing, but only soft relative to letting events take their own course.
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I think renewables can soften the landing like my tote full of canned sardines can soften the landing.
I might get a few more years of comfort until the sardines are eaten and the inverters and batteries need to be replaced.
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More likely, given where I live with our power generated by hydro, my solar panel batteries would expire without use before I needed to use them. Then some years later when I really need them, it will be dark and overcast for 5 months.
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Why do so few climate organizations talk about how climate destabilization will make large scale agriculture difficult or even impossible in many regions. Is it that they are unaware? Is it that they don’t want to spook their audience. Or is it MORT?
By the way it isn’t only climate change, but other symptoms of overshoot will play a role as well including but not limited to as biodiversity loss, topsoil erosion, peak fossil fuels (which means peak fertilizer).
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My frustration/anger with climate scientists in part explains why I started this blog to explore genetic reality denial.
I had a relative who held a very senior climate change position in the government. Many dinner conversations made me crazy. He had zero understanding of what actually needed to be done nor the implications of doing it, and he had an obscene carbon footprint with zero willingness to set a good example.
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“The Last Days of the Oil Age”
Berndt Warm
Oil production will be phased out in a short time; this will have an extreme impact on the life of mankind. The entire transportation sector will change or collapse.
The sooner you realize what is coming, the better you can prepare for it. My main reason for writing this report is to buy time to transition to a time without oil.
Click to access the_end_of_oil_covered_230920.pdf
“1. Introduction
Almost 40 years ago, I was employed by an oil and gas producer in
northern Germany. My job was to improve the software of a program
that simulated pressure and flow rates for natural gas and oil wells.
Thermodynamic equations were part of the program. After half a year I
left the company, because I expected a replacement of oil energy by
fusion energy and did not see a long-term future in the oil sector.
It was not until about 10 years ago that I began to look at the oil issue
again. The ETP model of HillsGroup captured my interest, and I checked
its calculations, found many mistakes, but a correct core.
Today it is selfevident for me that the thermodynamically calculated energy input is
dominant for oil production.
Again, and again I am surprised that this knowledge is not general
knowledge. Hundreds of petroleum engineers must have had this insight.
I often ask myself if I would not have gained this knowledge much earlier
if I had stayed in the oil sector. I’m pretty sure it would have dawned on
me by 1990 at the latest. How can it be that something so important is
overlooked by mankind?
I distributed a first, albeit very short, version of this report for the first
time at the ASPO conference in Potsdam in October 2019. It was only
eight pages long at the time. In this report, many additional observations
and data on oil production are added. The impact of the Covid-19
pandemic on the curves shown becomes clear; Peak Oil and Peak Car are
now recognizable as events of the past. Both peaks are about two years
before the start of the pandemic.”
Saludos
el mar
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Excellent find!!
I vaguely remember reading Berndt Warm 10ish years ago but have not seen him recently. He seems to be a really smart guy. Lots of important and fresh peak oil analysis here.
His work reminds me of a quote by Norman Pagett: “We formulated the laws of thermodynamics at about the same time we decided they didn’t apply to humankind.”
The big picture conclusion of his analysis is that oil production and the economy will contract VERY fast starting about 2027. He seems to roughly agree with my belief that we will be down about 50% in 2030.
I like his comparison of idiot economists’ beliefs to his own:
He devotes a chapter to wondering why so few can see a critically important reality. Unfortunately he is not aware of Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory.
A few other important ideas I spotted in a quick skim:
He seems to suggest covid was not a plan to reduce oil consumption:
He confirms 2018 was peak oil:
I note that his short concluding chapter on technologies of the future contradicts his previous 170 pages and strongly suggests Warn’s denial genes are normal.
el mar, a review and summary of this very important report would be an excellent guest post for un-Denial.com. Do you have any interest in writing one?
If el mar is not interested, perhaps Mike Roberts will volunteer since he has not yet contributed a guest essay?
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Hi Rob,
unfortunately I do not understand the equations, I lack mathematical and physical knowledge.
If I once have the time I will perhaps bring another topic. At the moment I am very busy at work. Self-employed (-:
I came back from the world biggest bakery fair in Munich (IBA), yesterday.
Much work to do now!
Saludos
el mar
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I understand. Thank you for your contributions here. Good luck with your baking.
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Mike, you up for it?
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I’ve had a scan of it but wasn’t impressed. He didn’t seem to go into why a reduced temperature of the reservoir meant increased energy was needed to recover the oil. He seemed to dismiss unconventional oil outright. Some of his linear fits, in graphs, seemed arbitrary. It made me wonder what he would have predicted in, say 2007, a couple of years after conventional peak but before fracking in the US had really kicked in. The report only uses data up to May this year and oil price has fluctuated a lot since then.
I agree about the new technologies section, and he also goes through non-technical actions individuals can take, as though that will somehow prepare them for the end of oil, with not much mention of climate and environmental chaos. He also thinks the city he lives near has been around for 1000 years and will be around for several centuries more (some of the structures may be around but that’s not quite the same thing).
Consequently, I’m not keen on poring through all the chapters, especially as some of the language was a bit difficult to understand (maybe English isn’t his first language and it hasn’t been through a proof-read). Like el mar, I probably won’t understand all of the equations that well, though I suspect they are not particularly important to understanding his arguments.
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Thanks Mike. You spotted a lot of warning signals that suggest it’s probably not worth more time.
My skim of his work suggested he was using complicated ideas and equations to confirm an idea grounded in (un)common sense: As oil depletes the cost of extraction goes up, which means the price must increase to maintain supply, but this makes oil less affordable, so demand falls, causing the price to fall, which causes extraction to fall, which causes wealth generation to fall, which means less oil can be afforded, etc., etc., resulting in self-reinforcing collapse of advanced civilization.
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Do have any other ideas you’d like to share in a guest post?
Perhaps your recent(?) idea that all animals must behave as animals and we should not hope for or expect anything else?
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Hmm, I’ll think about it, Rob, but am not sure I will have time for a while. Still loads to do here after my relatively recent move. Even after a couple of years, the list never seems to get shorter.
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No problem, maybe another time.
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Here is a thread @ POB with Berndt discussing his report.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-upate-october-2023-and-eia-international-energy-outlook-2023/#comment-765263
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Also discussed on OFW:
ourfiniteworld.com/2023/10/25/todays-energy-bottleneck-may-bring-down-major-governments/comment-page-3/#comment-440679
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fyi
Dr. Robert Sapolsky’s new book Determined is available for download as an e-book and audiobook at the usual places.
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New Scientist has an interview with him. There is a transcript also (only registration needed, not a subscription).
A couple of particularly interesting bits:
And for undenialists:
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Nice. That’s a different way to view Varki’s idea that you need denial for high intelligence to exist, and may be preferable to those who do not buy into the idea (I believe) that behaviorally modern humans emerged with a mutation enabled bang.
I’ve got the audiobook on my phone and will start chipping away at it on my walks.
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Thanks to Norman Pagett @ OFW for a most interesting video on the Panama canal with an example of how our complex technology creates problems that require more complex technology solutions leaving less surplus wealth for citizens.
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Yes, interesting. By the way, Norman’s surname is spelled with one “g”, Pagett.
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Thanks, fixed.
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Apparently the head of the snake is in Geneva.
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Interesting exchange between Hideaway and Hickory @ POB.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-october-23-2023/#comment-765319
Hideaway:
Hickory:
Hideaway:
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I’m continuing to watch Dr. Joseph Lee wondering if he is correct in claiming to have discovered the mechanism that mRNA (and some other vaccines) causes harm. He’s over the top aggressive in calling out anyone that does not have the intelligence or courage to show where his theory is wrong.
Today he attacks a prominent anti-mRNAer, Dr. Aseem Malholtra, who I thought was one of the good guys.
I’m looking forward to the day when the truth becomes clear. In the meantime I’m enjoying watching someone as angry as I am.
fyi, He copies all his tweets to substack because he was banned and wiped from Twitter once before.
https://josephyleemd.substack.com/p/dr-aseeeeeeem-is-a-huge-part-of-the
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Very good discussion on the extreme positions of both sides in the middle east and the associated risks.
It’s kind of like peak oil. There is no solution. Would be helpful for the US to spray water instead of gasoline.
Trigger alert: zero understanding of overshoot and energy depletion.
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I love Dr. Bret Weinstein. He has one the wisest and most intelligent minds with impeccable integrity on the planet.
Here he discusses our evolutionary behaviors that underpin the WWIII tensions.
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B b good today.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/this-energy-crisis-is-here-to-stay
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Who knew, the US now owns 1/3 of Syria.
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Just disgusting. See how smug she looks when describing what Syrian territory the US controls and for what purpose. I am so ashamed that the country of my birth has been playing at this game since year dot and still has the hubris to think it can continue bullying its way through. I’ve made my choice to leave that country long ago but I still feel a great responsibility for what we have wrought.
Very terrible times, and it’s only the beginning. Despondency is a natural response; kindness is the only recourse we have to overcome it.
Namaste, friends.
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Dr. Tim Morgan tends to repeat himself but today’s essay was very good with a fresh look at our ponzi economy and the permanent contraction that is now underway.
Notice that the entire essay is essentially about how we deny reality. Including, unfortunately, Morgan’s conclusion which suggests a silver lining of economic collapse will be less environmental destruction. I suspect the opposite is more likely with 8 billion hungry, cold, angry people with nuclear weapons.
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A sign of the times. I never saw this weather disaster in the news feeds I monitor. Also very little about another mass shooting in the US. It’s all frequent and normal now.
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-extreme-weather-outpacing-worst-case-scenarios.html
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Antonio Turiel today with his annual review of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook report.
The word “peak” was used 141 times but always in the context of peak demand, not peak supply. This denial theme continues throughout with example after example of fantasies being used to make reality appear better than it is.
Nothing we are told by our leaders today is true. The interesting thing is, as explained by MORT, most of them probably believe what they tell us.
https://crashoil.blogspot.com/2023/10/world-energy-outlook-2023-como-vamos.html
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Dr. Tom Murphy today provides some history on his intellectual and awareness growth, and the importance of context.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/10/context-is-king/
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Col. (ret.) Lawrence Wilkerson is becoming my favorite voice for explaining geopolitical realities.
Now if we could just find someone with similarly deep knowledge that is also overshoot aware!
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I’m sorry, as Wilkerson makes a lot of sense when talking about Israel he is just clueless when he talks about Putin and Russia. Mearsheimer is just the same. Russia is probably now the preeminent super power (only fools look at GDP or Purchasing Power Parity). Martyanov, Scott Ritter, John Helmer, and Col. MacGregor are far more knowledgeable about Russia and Putin’s strategy vis-a-vie Ukraine, Israel, Iran.
AJ
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I didn’t mean to imply I agree with everything he says. I like that he is intelligent, well informed on history, sees behind the bullshit narrative, and can form a sentence.
I also disagree with his Russia views. They are understandable given he’s overshoot blind. Russia’s energy, mineral, and food self sufficiency, low debt, dollar independence, heavy manufacturing capability, lower complexity but more resilient and lower cost technology, old-school military, traditional cultural values, etc. all become strengths rather than weaknesses in our coming world.
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Let’s watch how powerful our genetic tendency to deny unpleasant realities is.
P.S. I’ve never had a flu shot either.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/we-have-won-the-covid-vaccine-killed
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I read somewhere that only 10 – 20% of the populace is now accepting the flu shot. Every time I go to see my doctor everyone at the clinic pushes it (even the receptionists!) and I always refuse. Never again trusting those healthcare “Professionals”.
AJ
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Sigh.
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Double sigh. He used to be a hero of mine in my techno-optimist days. Oh how I wish I could take back all those times I said we’d all be moving around in driverless electric vehicles by the end of the 20s.
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Sigh also. However, as much as I dislike Musk (techno optimist and population growth crazy) one has to give him credit for buying Twitter (X) and making it from just another censor to a free speech platform. That alone slightly atones for all his faults.
AJ
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I listened to the whole Musk/Rogan podcast on my walk today. It deserves an entire post discussing it but I’m not up to it. I’ve said the same thing too many times already. How is it possible that someone so intelligent and so well informed can be so blind to something so important and so obvious as overshoot?
A few things Musk said:
1) San Francisco is infected with a death cult mind virus that has turned the city into a zombie apocalypse.
2) Twitter, being located in San Francisco, was run by the same death cult.
3) Because Twitter is a megaphone to the world, Musk was worried that the death cult mind virus would spread and destroy the world.
4) Musk bought Twitter to save the world.
5) X is now the only big social media platform not controlled by the government.
6) Musk said the death cult believes humans are a plague that SHOULD go extinct. Note the massive disconnect here. The death cult actually believes humans are in overshoot and must reduce the population to AVOID extinction.
7) The planet can easily accommodate 80 billion people.
8) All of the US’s energy needs can be met with 100 x 100 square miles of solar panels plus batteries. Not a problem to build.
9) 5 minutes earlier in the conversation Musk said the only battery challenge Telsa faces is the high cost of batteries.
Maybe it’s not denial.
Maybe Musk is saying what a CEO must say to grow his companies while simultaneously building rockets to colonize Mars because he knows the “death cult” is correct.
P.S.
Musk also said a couple other things that I thought were strange:
10) At least 6 times he repeated that designing EVs is easy and that manufacturing is the hard part. Why say this over and over? It was message for someone. Propping Tesla stock against competitors maybe?
11) He said it would be easy to convert his rocket that can land at a precise location into a weapon.
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What makes Elon believe that we could support 10x our present population, when our current population size is casuing ecological collapse? He is a professional hopium peddler.
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Elon musk is just a tech conman not so different from Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos fame, whose only real accomplishment is stealing Tesla from its original founders using corporate maneuvers. He barely has any grasp of the engineering fundamentals and just says absolute nonsense when he talks on any subject. He is successful because of his ability to game the system of subsidies on the back of the only successful company in his portfolio( which he DID NOT create).
The fact that this narcissistic loudmouthed buffoon is considered a revolutionary tech genius and worshipped by the mainstream media who fawn over his every word is in itself an indictment of our civilization and should remove any doubt that we are doomed.
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I’m still forming an opinion on him. I was leaning towards autistic.
Doesn’t the mainstream mostly hate him because he’s center of left, anti-woke, anti-mRNA (I think), anti-censorship, and anti-war?
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He may be all of the things that you mentioned but I was not talking about his political and ideological beliefs. He did not become wealthy and influential because of those things. Yes the mainstream media does not like those things about him. If he was famous because he was a political commentator then that would be a different matter.
But whenever he talks about anything related to engineering and technology people, and especially technology reporters fawn over him. Nothing that he says makes any sense from an engineering standpoint. Almost all his ideas are embarrassingly dumb like Mars colonies, Tesla Semi, Solar tiles(which were never real), Las Vegas loop, Hyperloop, TeslaBot, StarShip just to name a few. There are entire YouTube channels making videos debunking all the nonsensical ideas he puts out and they are always busy.
As I mentioned the one thing that he excels at is pulling cons and gaming the system which I will be the first one to admit has served him well.
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Got it and I agree.
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A purge apparently underway in China.
It’s very dangerous to be in charge of “recovering” from an extreme debt bubble when growth stops.
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This is a hilarious Halloween treat!
A Vulcan alien (aka Jay Couey) from the future tries to warn us that our leaders are lying to us and we are at risk of having our DNA modified without our consent in a plan to weaken and enslave the human race.
Unfortunately he was unable to transmit to a date earlier than 2023 and so he was only able to inform us of what’s already happened.
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A few nights ago I watched the new South Park episode Joining the Panderverse.
They rip woke culture with a special focus on Disney.
Another theme less discussed in the reviews that resonated with me is how the educated class today “doesn’t know how to do shit”. Valuable careers in the future will be the trades.
Recommended and available for download at the usual places.
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Nothing to do with denial or overshoot but very interesting if you’re an active all-weather outdoor person.
In summary, Gore-Tex is a waste of money.
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You do find some gems Rob.
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Oh naur! My partner loves is gore-tex
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Any idea what the best wet weather material is? I’ve had an oil skin for over 20 years but the zip has gone now and it leaks.
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I’m not an expert here.
My interpretation of what Ryan said in the video was that there’s nothing wrong with Gore-Tex, provided you understand its limitations and do not buy the hype about ventilation WITH waterproofness, however there are many competing brands that are just as good for much less money and in a few cases are actually better than Gore-Tex.
I personally still pack a light weight Gore-Tex jacket when hiking but make no attempt to keep my legs dry and instead wear quick drying fabrics. I have an oil skin hat that I really like for hiking. I got my Gore-Tex jacket at a blow out price from a store that went bankrupt so I don’t feel like I wasted any money.
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Scott Ritter is scared to death. Good chance middle east goes nuclear soon. Only way to avoid it is for Biden to force Israel to stand down. If middle east goes nuclear oil flow stops and most economies collapse.
Skip ahead to 55:15.
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I listen to podcasts like Scott Ritter’s, Judge Napolitano, Larry Johnson, Colonel MacGregor, and more everyday. Depression isn’t where I’m at, I’m way beyond being depressed. I’m anxious for where we will be in a few days. This Friday could be a big day, depends on what Hezbollah decides to do. We are led by fools to the end of civilization. So sad.
AJ
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I listen to the same people every day. I’m feeling numb.
Given our leaders were too stupid to do the right thing with something as simple as Vitamin D (low cost, zero risk, effective) I expect they will screw up avoiding nuclear war.
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I’m transiting through Doha next month, hopefully the war can hold off for another month so so. That would be great thanks
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I had to Google Doha to find out where it is. Good luck!
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Are we entering an ice age termination event?
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This video concludes that methane increases may be a big problem but we don’t know for sure.
Today’s essay by Eliot Jacobson says methane is a big problem that will take out civilization and it’s too late to do anything about it.
https://climatecasino.net/2023/11/wtf-happened-to-the-methane-monster/
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The Green transition will not go as planned.
If you want go strait into the lecture jump to 6:30 in the video.
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Latest Great Simplification podcast, Nate Hagens and David Holmgren discuss the influence Howard T. Odum has had on their thinking.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/96-david-holmgren
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I quit about half way through because I was not enjoying it nor learning enough. Did you stick it out to the end? Do you recommend I finish it?
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Not yet, going to listen on my drive home from work
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