Today’s post includes a recent sobering comment on overshoot reality by un-Denial regular Hideaway that I thought deserved more visibility, and a new essay on acceptance by B, who has recently emerged as one of the best writers about human overshoot.
The ideas of Hideaway and B complement some of the recent discussions here about acceptance and the nature of our species.
P.S. I did not receive permission from B to re-post his essay but I’m hoping that since un-Denial is not monetized he will not object, and I will of course remove the essay if B expresses concern.
By Hideaway: On Radical Reality
The human enterprise of modernity and 8.1+ billion humans is going down. Reduction in available energy is the trigger and there is nothing we can do to stop it, or make it less unpleasant, or save the macrofauna from extinction.
As we build more energy machines of any type, their output increases overall energy available, and used, providing this happens faster than the retirement of old energy producing machines. Over the last few decades we, as in humanity in it’s entirety, have increased fossil fuel use developing more, tearing up the environment more, while increasing the build of renewables.
On a world wide scale, we have not replaced any fossil fuel use, we have just increased all energy use with more fossil fuels being part of that increase, and renewables being part of the increase. At some point growing energy use must stop, unless we make the planet uninhabitable for all life, which means we stop anyway.
Because of our economic system, as soon as we stop growing energy production and use, the price of energy goes up, and we go into recession/depression. It becomes impossible to build ‘new’ stuff of any kind once energy use declines, unless we take the energy from other users, for our ‘new’ builds.
Building more renewables, batteries, EVs, etc., currently means using more fossil fuels to build it all. There is no realistic attempt to build it all with electricity from renewables, nor is that possible. If we diverted existing renewable energy production to, for example, a new mine, then that renewable energy, removed from a city, would have to be made up by increasing fossil fuel generated electricity for the city.
If we ‘ran’ the new mine from new renewables, then these have to be built first, meaning we need the mine for the minerals to build the renewables, or we take minerals from existing users, elsewhere. It’s all just more, more, more and none of the proponents of renewables, including major green organizations want to acknowledge it.
The circular economy can’t work as we cannot physically recycle everything, plus we would need to build all the recycling facilities. If we were to try and do this without increasing total energy use, where does the energy come from to build these new recycling facilities? Other energy users? For the last couple of centuries it’s always come from ‘growth’, especially in energy use. None of us, nor our parents or grandparents, have known a world where the amount of energy available to humanity does anything other than grow.
Because of losses of all materials due to entropy and dissipation into the environment, we will always need mining, of ever lower ore grades, meaning an increasing energy use for mining. It is simply not possible to maintain output from mines once we go to zero energy growth, unless the energy comes from other uses, and users.
Once energy production growth stops, the price of all energy rises, because we need energy production to go up just to maintain the system, as population grows, ore grades decline, etc. If energy production was to fall, the price becomes higher, making everything else cost more. We can see this on a micro scale every time an old coal power plant is closed. On average, the wholesale price of electricity goes up, until compensated for by some newer form of electricity production (the new source taking energy to build).
Visions for the future usually include extra energy efficiency for buildings, etc. but never, ever, include the energy cost of these energy efficiency gains. For example, a simple hand wave about using double glazed or triple glazed windows. To do this, on a worldwide scale, we would need to build a lot of new glass factories, and probably window manufacturers as well. It will take more energy to do this, just like everything else ‘new’.
The phrase ‘build new’ means more energy is required for construction and mining the minerals for the new or expanded factories. The Adaro coal power plant (new) and aluminium smelter (also new) in Indonesia are perfect examples of our predicament. The world needs more aluminium for ‘new’ solar PVs, EVs, wiring, etc. which means more energy use and environmental damage, regardless of whether we use fossil fuels, solar panels, or pumped hydro backup.
Civilization is a Ponzi scheme energy trap, we either grow energy and material use, or we stagnate, and then collapse. Following feedback loops, we see there is no way out of this predicament.
People often claim the future is difficult to predict, yet it is simple, obvious, and highly predictable for humanity as a whole. We will continue to use more energy, mine more minerals, and destroy more of the environment, until we can’t. The first real limit we will experience is oil production, and we may be there already.
Once oil production starts to fall with a vengeance as it must, say 2-3 million barrels/day initially, then accelerating to 4-5 million barrels/day, it will trigger a feedback loop of making natural gas and coal production more difficult as both are totally dependent upon diesel, thus reducing the production of both, or if we prioritize diesel for natural gas and coal production, then other consumers of diesel, like tractors, combines, trucks, trains, and ships, must use less.
Mining and agriculture will come under pressure, sending prices for all raw materials and food through the roof. World fertilizer use is currently above 500 million tonnes annually. A lot of energy is required to make and distribute fertilizer. World grain yields are strongly correlated to fertilizer use, so less energy means less fertilizer, which means less food, unless we prioritize energy for agriculture by taking energy from and harming some other part of our economy.
If we banned discretionary energy uses to keep essential energy uses going, while overall energy continues to decline, then large numbers of people will lose their jobs and experience poverty, further compounding the problems of scarcity and rising prices.
Money for investing into anything will dry up. If governments print money to help the economy, inflation will negate the effort. If governments increase taxes to fund more assistance, then more people and businesses will be made poorer.
The ability to build anything new quickly evaporates, people everywhere struggle between loss of employment, loss of affordable goods and services, increased taxation, and will be forced to increase the well-being of their immediate ‘group’ to the detriment of ‘others’. Crime rates go through the roof, the blame game increases, with some trying to dispossess others of their resources. This will occur for individuals, groups and countries. Crime and war will further accelerate the decline in energy production, and the production and shipment of goods in our global economy. One after the other, at an accelerating rate, countries will become failed states when the many feedback loops accelerate the fossil fuel decline. Likewise for solar, wind and nuclear.
We rapidly get to a point where our population of 8.1+ billion starts to decline, with starving people everywhere searching for their next meal, spreading from city to country areas, eating everything they can find, while burning everything to stay warm in colder areas during the search for food. Every animal found will eaten. Farming of any type, once the decline accelerates, will not happen, because too many people will be eating the seed, or the farmer. Cows, sheep, horses, chooks, pigs, deer, basically all large animals will succumb because of the millions or billions of guns in existence and starving nomadic people.
Eventually after decades of decline, humans will not be able to be hunter gatherers as we will have made extinct all of megafauna. Whoever is left will be gatherers of whatever food plants have self-seeded and grown wild. Even if we were able to get some type of agriculture going again, there would be no animals to pull plows, all old ‘machinery’ from decades prior would be metal junk, so food would remain a difficult task for humans, unless we found ways to farm rabbits and rats, without metal fencing. While we will use charcoal to melt metals found in scavenged cities, it will limited to producing a few useful tools, like harnesses to put on the slaves plowing the fields, or for keeping the slaves entrapped.
Once we go down the energy decline at an accelerating rate, nothing can stop complete collapse unless we can shrink population much faster than the energy decline, which itself may very well be pointless as we have created such a globalised economy of immense complexity, where fast population decline, has it’s own huge set of problems and feedback loops.
Our complex economy requires a large scale of human enterprise. Reduce the scale, and businesses will have less sales, making everything more expensive. Rapid population decline will mean many businesses won’t just reduce production, but will often stop altogether when the business goes bust.
Because of interdependencies of our complex products, a scarcity of one seemingly uncritical component will have far reaching effects on other critical products. Maintenance parts will become difficult to obtain, causing machinery to fail, in turn causing other machines to fail that depended on the failed machines. Think of a truck delivering parts required to fix trucks. The same applies to production line machines, processing lines at mines, or simple factories making furniture, let alone anything complicated. If we only reach population decline as energy declines the problem is still the same.
By B: On Radical Acceptance
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/on-radical-acceptance
So what is radical acceptance? For me, it means: accepting that no single technological civilization based on finite resources is sustainable. Neither in the bronze age, nor in the iron age; let alone in an era of industrial revolutions. None. Why? Because all spend their nest egg — be it fertile topsoil, forests or coal, lithium and copper — a million times faster than it can be replenished. Recycling and “sustainability” practices can only slow down the process somewhat… At least in theory, but rarely in practice. The “circular economy”, together with „renewables” are nothing but fairy tales we tell ourselves to scare off the wolfs at night. Sorry to be this blunt, but the decline of this techno-industrial civilization is inevitable, and is already well underway.
The only type of civilization (if you want to use that term), which proved to be more or less sustainable so far, was a basic hunter-gatherer society; complemented perhaps with some agroforestry, pottery and some low key metallurgy. Anything beyond that inevitably destroyed the soil and the very resource base supporting the entire edifice. With that said, I’m not suggesting that we should immediately go back to the caves and mud huts… That would be impossible for 4 billion of us, entirely supported by large scale agriculture based on artificial fertilizers and a range of pesticides. However, it is important to note, that this is the direction we are headed, with the only question being how fast we will get there and how many humans can be sustained via such a lifestyle.
And this is where acceptance comes into view. Once you understand (not just “know”) that burning through a finite amount of mineral reserves at an exponential pace leads to depletion and environmental degradation at the same time, you start to see how unsustainable any human civilization is. All that technology (in its narrowest technical sense) does is turning natural resources into products and services useful for us, at the cost of polluting the environment. Technology use is thus not only the root cause of our predicament, but it can only accelerate this process. More technology — more depletion — more pollution. Stocks drawn down, sinks filling up. Simple as that. Of course you can elaborate on this matter as long as you wish, conjuring up all sorts of “game changer” and “wonder” machines from fusion to vertical gardens, the verdict remains the same. It. Is. All. Unsustainable. Period.
There are no clean technologies, and without dense energy sources like fossil fuels there wont be any technology — at least not at the scale we see today.
Many people say: Oh this is so depressing! And I ask: why? Because your grand-grand children will have to work on a field and grow their own food? Or that you might not even have grand-grand children? I don’t mean that I have no human feelings. I have two children whom I love the most. I have a good (very good) life — supported entirely by this technological society. Sure, I would love to see this last forever, and that my kin would enjoy such a comfortable life, but I came to understand that this cannot last. Perhaps not even through my lifetime. I realize that I most probably will pass away from an otherwise totally treatable disease, just because the healthcare system will be in absolute shambles by the time I will need it the most. But then what? Such is life: some generations experience the ‘rising tide lift all boats’ period in a civilization’s lifecycle, while others have to live through its multi-decade (if not centuries) long decline.
I did feel envy, shame, and anxiety over that, but as the thoughts I’ve written about above have slowly sunk in, these bad feelings all went away. It all started look perfectly normal, and dare I say: natural. No one set out to design this modern iteration of a civilization with an idea to base it entirely on finite resources; so that it will crash and burn when those inputs start to run low, and the pollution released during their use start to wreck the climate and the ecosystem as a whole. No. It all seemed like just another good idea. Why not use coal, when all the woods were burnt? Why not turn to oil then, when the easily accessible part of our coal reserves started to run out? At the time — and at the scale of that time — it all made perfect sense. And as we got more efficient, and thus it all got cheaper, more people started to hop onboard… And why not? Who wouldn’t want to live a better life through our wondrous technologies? The great sociologist C. Wright Mills summed up this process the best, when writing about the role of fate in history:
Fate is shaping history when what happens to us was intended by no one and was the summary outcome of innumerable small decisions about other matters by innumerable people.
Scientifically speaking this civilization, just like the many others preceding it, is yet another self organizing complex adaptive system. It seeks out the most accessible energy source and sucks it dry, while increasing the overall entropy of the system. We as a species are obeying the laws of thermodynamics, and the rule set out in the maximum power principle. Just like galaxies, stars, a pack of wolves, fungi or yeast cells. There is nothing personal against humanity in this. We are just a bunch of apes, playing with fire.
Once I got this, I started to see this whole process, together with our written history of the past ten thousand years, as an offshoot of natural evolution. Something, which is rapidly reaching its culmination, only to be ended as a failed experiment. Or, as Ronald Wright put it brilliantly in his book A Short History of Progress:
Letting apes run the laboratory was fun for a while, but in the end a bad idea.
So, no. I’m not depressed at all. It was fun to see how far a species can go, but also reassuring that it was a one off experiment. Once this high tech idiocy is over, it will be impossible to start another industrial revolution anyway. There will be no more easy to mine, close to surface ores and minerals. Everything left behind by this rapacious society will remain buried beneath a thousand feet of rocks, and will be of such a low quality that it will not worth the effort. Lacking resources to maintain them, cities, roads, bridges will rust and crumble into the rising seas, while others will be replaced by deserts, or lush forests. The reset button has been pressed already, it just takes a couple of millennia for a reboot to happen.
Contradictory as it may sound: this is what actually gives me hope. Bereft of cheap oil, and an access to Earth’s abundant mineral reserves, future generations of humans will be unable to continue the ecocide. There will be no new lithium mines, nor toxic tailings or hazardous chemicals leaching into the groundwater. Our descendants will be forced to live a more sustainable, more eco-friendly life. There will be no other way: the ecocide will end. This also means, that there will be no “solution” to climate change, nor ecological collapse. They both will run their due course, and take care of reducing our numbers to acceptable levels. Again, don’t fret too much about it: barring a nuclear conflict, this process could last well into the next century, and beyond. The collapse of modernity will take much longer than any of us could imagine, and will certainly look nothing like what we see in the movies. And no, cutting your emissions will not help. At all. Live your life to its fullest. Indulge in this civilization, or retreat to a farm. It’s all up to you, and your values. This is what I mean under the term, radical acceptance.
We are a species of this Earth, and paraphrasing Tom Murphy, we either succeed with the rest of life on this planet or go down together. Nurturing hope based technutopian “solutions”, and trying to remain optimistic does not solve anything. This whole ordeal is unsustainable. What’s more, it was from the get go… And that which is unsustainable will not be sustained. And that is fine. We, as a species are part of a much bigger whole, the web of life, and returning to our proper place as foraging humanoids will serve and fit into that whole much better than any technutopian solution could.
Until next time,
B
un-Denial 
Someone on Quora actually wrote this.
https://www.quora.com/How-badly-would-Russia-defeat-NATO?topAns=1477743743617885
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Anyone seen this new movie?
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt16280912/
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/humane
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No, but its on my radar now. Plot looks very promising (especially for us un-Denialists).
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No shit, Sherlock.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/04/outside-the-fishbowl/
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Been wanting to post this for a couple months now but could never pull the trigger (pun intended). Gaia helped me out in two ways last night. First by inspiring me with her brilliant, funny and honest preptip post. And then mentioning the topic I am going to talk about here in a different comment.
I want to preface this with a few words. I’m not suicidal. I just want an exit plan for me and my family to avoid suffering if collapse becomes very bad. Many people will admit they have an exit kit, but that’s as far as it goes, and I’m always left wondering what the hell their strategy is. The following are the best methods I have found, and I am wondering what others have concluded. So please share, and if absolutely necessary just change your name to “anonymous” for this one comment. With one caveat: if your method involves a gun, rope, or blade… don’t bother replying, because that’s a dreadful way to go.
Trying to find that perfect combo (quick & painless) has been difficult. Carbon monoxide poisoning always seemed like an easy and foolproof plan. Many people think when SHTF they can just go in their garage, get in the car, turn the engine on and then fall asleep and die peacefully. As soon as you do some research, it starts to look like a bad idea. Too many things can go wrong, and the timing factor is very unstable. Same with a charcoal grill in the house. But I am guessing that with the right engineering involved, the carbon monoxide route could be a decent method.
Drugs/pills would be the ideal way if you had the right access/knowledge. But for most of us, getting our hands on these “magic pills” (or the pill they give to astronauts) is not an option.
The “plastic bag” method is appealing. Not aesthetically (it’s downright creepy looking), but for its effectiveness. In a nutshell, you pop a bunch of sleeping pills, sit in a chair, put on a painter’s mask (the mask is to prevent the plastic bag from being sucked into the mouth and nostrils), put the plastic bag over your head securing it with an elastic band around the neck (large rubber bands will do). Hold open the bag near your adams apple with both of your thumbs so that you can breathe. Eventually you fall asleep from the pills and your arms drop to your side and then the plastic bag seals. Death will happen in about 30 minutes. Breathing continues until death. It’s not suffocation in the usual sense of the word. And there is no choking.
The best method (imho) is inert gas asphyxiation. You can use nitrogen, helium, argon, or methane. Helium is the easiest to obtain (in USA). A plastic bag goes over your head (you dont need a painter’s mask, the gas will keep the bag inflated) with plastic tubing from the gas into the bag taped up firmly and secured with elastic band around the neck. Turn the gas on, and you are unconscious in seconds and dead in minutes. The gas (and plastic bag) should be left on for 10-15 minutes just to be safe. In some cases, as the person is dying from the gas, there is some bodily twitching. This can be avoided by taking anticonvulsant drugs (a couple valium about an hour prior). But taking the drugs is not necessary. Just a personal choice.
In a sane world, euthanasia would be affordable, encouraged, and widely available. And if overshoot/collapse was openly admitted by mainstream media & politicians, total population would plummet after everyone signed up for this voluntary process. Dwindling resources would become much more abundant. win/win… Instead, we are all alone in choosing an exit strategy. And that’s the easy part! A quote from Cloud Atlas sums up the hard part – “Suicide takes tremendous courage”.
Chris
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Dear Chris,
I hope you are well.
This is perhaps one of the most important topics to be mentioned.
– I’ve arrived at the same exact conclusion as thou.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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If 100% of the deaths were from the poorest 90% of the population, the difference to our predicament would be 1%.
The numbers are arbitrary, but highlight that the reduction needs to come from those that consume the most. Perversely, they are also the group least likely to step up.
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Hamish I think this is an interesting topic of discussion, but it’s out of context to paqnation’s question.
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I think the people that would volunteer, would not be from the group that “can” make a major difference. The effect of the deaths would likely be inconsequential – other than, those that died, might have “exited” whilst minimizing personal trauma.
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Ah sorry I missed where he said that. I would be interested in a new blog post to discuss this topic more on impact of 90% versus 10% etc because I have a lot of questions on the data. Separate to self-deletion topics 🙂
I don’t think most people would voluntarily end their lives (even if they wanted to), but a lot would engage in behaviours that are more stupid or risker in an effort to get by, e.g., drinking, trading with gangs. Orlov said in the Soviet Union collapse a lot of men died from consumption.
Also interesting to think about this topic in consideration of the mental health crisis unfolding across the modern world. Many are already suicidal before the shit has even really hit the fan….
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I actually agree with paqnation that an “exit” option, that is painless and has little trauma would be beneficial for when individuals get to the end of their road.
After reading the post again, you are correct that I stretched the context – there was no mention that having an exit option would equate with any kind of softer landing overall or alter the descent.
I might have been conflating my post with thoughts about Humane movie mentioned by Rob in a comment above.
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Ya, you make a good point. Think my emotions were talking when I was mentioning the euthanasia bit.
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I would recommend 1,4 butanediol. It is legal and becomes GHB in your body. At high doses it will make you fall asleep and suppress your breathing and heart rate. Overdoses commonly cause death.
I used to take it for dance parties as in small doses following MDMA the high was incredible. Sometimes I would take too much (we are only talking a difference of a ml or two I would have trouble staying awake.
Taking 20mls would likely kill you especially if you took some opioids with it. Should be a pleasant exit.
I initially got mine from Canada sent here to Oz. That was years ago though.
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Nice. Sounds like a good exit plan.
Thanks for sharing and restoring my faith. Was starting to conclude that people don’t want to share their dirty little secrets. 😊
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If anyone here can vouch for a mail order source of nembutal please share.
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Richard Heinberg today discusses another way we could buy time by adding explosives to the bomb.
I think it’s similar to how we’re using debt, although the damage from a debt default will not be as fatal.
https://richardheinberg.com/museletter-373-how-to-build-a-climate-bomb
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We would just be digging ourselves deeper into the hole. Plus, geoengineering doesn’t address the other symptoms of overshoot.
https://dgrnewsservice.org/civilization/ecocide/climate-change/cooling-the-earth-by-reflecting-sunlight-back-to-space/
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I try to keep up on Global Warming and where we are on a real time basis. To that end I watch Paul Beckwith videos occasionally. He recently did one where he was coming out for the absolute necessity of geoengineering. I personally think it is preposterous from a collapse perspective, i.e. where do we get the energy to do it and we will never have the political will (worldwide)/time left to implement it. So, when climate scientists start talking about geoengineering it just depresses me. 😉
AJ
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This is why Derrick Jensen always says, “What do all of the supposed ‘solutions’ to climate change have in common? They all take industrial civilization as a given.”
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Tim Watkins with his spin on why growth must end and what that means.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/04/30/a-world-without-growth/
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When growth stops, it is going to look like the great depression on steroids. How do you think governments will respond to 30% unemployment? Or will they print huge amounts of money to bail out the financial system, causing hyperinflation?
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I think we will see massive amounts of industry will be nationalised by governments. Where they can run to provide the good/service without needing to make return on investment for investors
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But what happens to all of the debt? Huge amounts of paper wealth will evaporate. I don’t shed any tears about billionaires getting a lot less wealthy, but I do feel sorry for people living on pensions.
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The debt will be written off or the currency the debt is denoted in will be worthless. The derivatives market is bigger, by orders of magnitude, than all other markets. Clearly it is not possible that everyone can get their money back / debt repaid. Interestingly, New Zealand is the only modern country I know of that does not have depositors’ insurance for the little guys (e.g., under $250k in a bank).
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If the debt gets written off, there will likely be widespread bank runs, like in the early 1930’s in the U.S..
In the U.S., many people will at first viscerally oppose nationalizing major industries, but if they have to choose between that and total economic collapse, they will (hopefully) choose the former.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyHAi6lGl4U
Netanyahu Arrest Warrant From ICC “Imminent”
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I’m the construction/fix-it guy at the farm I assist. In previous years I have received food for my efforts. This year they are growing much less so they gave me a plot to grow whatever I want.
It’s a new experience for me to be in charge of growing my own food. This photo is about a week old. So far I have planted bush beans, beets, carrots, and bok choy. Next up salad, spinach, chard, kale, and in the greenhouse a few cherry tomatoes.
In addition, I’ll still receive some blueberries, asparagus, potatoes, rhubarb, and garlic from their scaled back operation.
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Oooooh Rob, that’s a beautiful sight, so thrilled for you embarking on this endeavour in continuing the legacy of our agricultural heritage. Never mind that it’s probably the single revolution that has gotten us into our current pickle, there’s still nothing to compare to the joy of watching seeds sprout and eventually grow into something you want to eat. Enjoy this season and your harvest to come, weather and wildlife willing!
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Thanks Gaia. It sure takes a lot of oil based products to farm organically. Drip tape, valves, pipe, reemay cloth, metal pins, gas and steel for the walk behind tractor, steel to build the Jang seeder, plastic for the Earthway seeder, plastic for greenhouses, etc. etc.. A lot will change without oil.
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Scaling back? Can you tell us why? Those greenhouses are a lot of investment sitting idle.
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Small farms here cannot function without off-farm income so the owners work off-site and hire someone to run the farm. Farm managers typically stay only 2-3 years because they can make more money in other jobs. This year’s new farm manager quit for personal reasons just before the growing season started. This forced a re-evaluation of the strategy. Growing annuals is much less profitable than growing perrenials because of the labor so it was decided to scale back and focus on perrenials this year.
It’s going to take quite a while to ramp up local food production when the trucks stop running. 😦
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I empathize with you and the farmer. I know all about how fossil fuel dependent, even in the 3 large gardens, I have been. I refused to buy a rototiller and turn all the soil over by hand (shovel/rake) in the fall and partially in the spring. I also did not buy a wood chipper and either rent one or make biochar with all the limbs/pruning every year and put that in the garden. But I have gotten lazy and a local retired nursery person has started a small spring nursery for the people in the area. I use her starts for tomatoes and peppers. Gardening/farming is going to get a lot more labor intensive as we unwind from the fossil fuel splurge we have indulged in.
AJ
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Here, MOST farms can’t make it without off farm income. Not sure if I’ve shared that point here before. There are scores of articles describing the fact, and the USDA data confirms and gives more detail on what the income streams are, and what size farms need it most.
Here is just one such:
https://www.cobank.com/corporate/news/2022/off-farm-income-increasingly-important-for-agricultural-and-rural-economy
CSAs, and other efforts to sell direct at retail prices, can help, but logistics and doing all the marketing and other non-farming pieces is typically not what farmers signed up for. You are fighting the planet destroying cheap food system and it is very hard work.
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It’s a big problem. A wise species without denial would see what is coming and do something to help small farmers survive.
This is MUCH more important than subsidizing renewable energy and EVs.
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That soil looks great!
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That’s great. It is going to be fun.
How big is the plot? It’s hard for me to tell: 200m^2? On the left (maybe in the center too), are these pipes for dripping irrigation? Did you till the soil yourself or did they do it for you with some machinery before handing you the plot (maybe covering with a plastic tarp, as we see in the background was enough)? Did the soil get any input before? What inputs/treatments do you plan to use, if any? Do you have a lot of hungry slugs eyeing the bush beans?
If you want to dedicate a small 2m^2 area (so as not to take too many risks) to either natural or syntropic farming, let me know 🙂 It would be an opportunity to get a feel on the opposite philosophy of these approaches (compared with conventional practices), see how they build up soil year after year (if not reset by tilling) and understand the constraints/compromises which respecting the natural dynamic entails.
Good luck for an abundant future harvest.
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My bed has 9 rows 1m x 18m so about 200m^2 with paths.
There are many more unused beds and space in the greenhouse if I want to plant more.
Most of the beds are covered with plastic during the winter. I tilled with a walk behind BCS tractor. I am using drip irrigation. I ammended before planting with lime and organic 4-13-0+13C fish bone meal. I may also add some 11-0-0 feather meal for some of the crops. I will be covering some of the crops with reemay cloth to protect from insects.
Can you point me to an overview of syntropic farming?
If I don’t post any more pictures you will know I failed. 🙂
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Here is a succinct bibliography of syntropic farming:
If you go syntropic all the way, then you will end up with trees (perennials, orchard, …). So that’s maybe something the farm owner doesn’t want. Even though trees can always be cut, sold or used as input for the next round of growth. (if you have enough space, you can even convert rows progressively and design the area so that there is a rotation and are always able to produce a bit of everything).
Luckily, you can always apply the principles of syntropic farming on smaller timescales and plant only annuals. There is a french gardener who presents designs with sunflower, corn, potatoes, zucchini, gourd, onion, garlic, salad, beets, peas, fava, leek, cabbages, phacelia, cosmos, tagetes. Some adaptation will be needed to pick plants that grow well in your context.
And I have the personnal conviction, that if yield improvements are to be seen year after year, then:
As a last note (mainly to myself :), it’s easy to get overwhelmed, we also need to rest, slow down when that happens. (the possibilities are infinite anyway)
In any case, don’t worry: you won’t fail. You will get to discover your preferred way of gardening. Next year will be different and an occasion to improve.
Have fun!
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Dear Charles,
I hope you are well.
Great to see Ernst Götsch methodology mentioned.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Thank you ABC.
I am looking forward to hearing your experience from within your national emergency security council.
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Dear Charles,
thank you for thine quick reply.
I am afraid, that such a journey to gain a position within said council (if at all plausible) will take years in my condition.
Nonetheless, I cannot think of any other endeavour which could be said to be worthwhile knowing all of this, I simply must act.
The more I learn, realise and understand various matters, the more Kaarlo Collan’s (aka Pentti Linkola) sage like knowledge unveils and lightens up this dreary path.
– The man was truly nothing short of brilliant (as are most of you my dear brethren & sistren here).
It’s unfortunate he passed away rather recently.
– It would’ve been an honour to have engaged in a discussion with him.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Thank you Charles! I will study and think about ways to try here.
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Rob ,the plot of land looks great for growing all types of food crops.
These days I’m against the concept of trying to grow organically, or with permaculture, or syntropically or whatever claimed ‘natural’ approach, for the simple reason none of them are close to ‘natural’ in any way.
Firstly, not your block, but all the terms relate to ‘farming’, where nutrients are transferred from the area the crops are grown to the town or city. Nothing even close to nature in that. If we then moved all the nutrients back to the farm as wastes, we use lots of fossil fuels to do it (both ways of transport). Again not natural or close to sustainable.
Secondly, we grow plants that come from all corners of the world in our orchards and vegetable gardens, that come from a variety of different microclimates and soil types, living with a range of different creatures from their local areas. Thinking we can replicate anything ‘natural’ in a system combining parts of many different subsystems from around the world is just hubris.
Plus we humans have selected plants of thousands of generations to grow according to our needs, not the needs of the plant in coping with a different environment from their natural home. It’s all short termism at best. It can look for a few years or maybe a decade or so, but eventually something will go terribly wrong. This is all before we add how much the climate will change over the next few years, with totally abnormal weather events nearly every year now everywhere.
My suggestion is you grow what you want, using anything that gives good results, while trying to minimise use of chemicals that are likely bad for those eating the produce. You have already worked out plastic pipes for drip irrigation and greenhouses are not even close to sustainable, neither is the rest of the artificial system, no matter what you grow, unless it’s an original natural plant from your area.
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I agree with you.
Organic is definitely not green or natural. The main benefit is no pesticides or herbicides but organic is still completely dependent on fossil energy and a complex industrial infrastructure.
There are so many critical and fragile failure points in modern farming. For example, being unable to obtain a replacement irrigation pump, cooler compressor, water valve, belt, battery, tire, etc, would shut us down.
Every day I am reminded of the magic of fossil energy. Yesterday I planted tomatoes in the greenhouse. I set out to prepare the beds by hand with a broad fork but after a lot of effort and little progress I went and got the BCS walk behind tractor and was done in 5 minutes.
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Hello Hideaway,
Things can be seen that way. I’d like to offer another angle.
Aren’t we just learning and trying to live a bit more responsibly while enjoying ourselves? Some would say re(dis)cover our role in the ecosystem. Doesn’t regenerative agriculture “work” (in that it can build soil, regrow forests, speed up the accumulation process of life)? And yes, it is certainly not perfect. We can go against the flow or with it. We certainly have many choices. This plays on so many levels (inner, cultural, societal, ecological)
Sometimes, I get the impression that you have decided things must be and stay all absolute doom and gloom 🙂
I would like to end with a quote (http://bnzr.vot.pl/en/archives/2193) by Fukuoka from “Sowing Seeds in the Desert” (first published in 1996):
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Hi Charles, we have been farming for nearly 40 years, I was the state secretary of an organic farming organisation and on the certifying committee for a couple of years. I learned a lot, mostly how not to do something.
The future is all doom and gloom because no-one wants to try and take any action to avoid it, not that there is much that can be done now. We are in deep deep overshoot by many billions of people and have played havoc with the ecosphere.
These days I don’t have much time for Fukuoka either. He lived on the side of a volcano with rich very fertile soil, and by selling product off farm he was effectively mining it, but didn’t ever consider this. I read One Straw Revolution back in the eighties along with 5 Acres and Independence and a host of other books. The mining of the soil might take several generations but eventually Liebig’s law of the minimum will get you.
They all miss the mining of soil if you sell anything off farm. They all miss that you have to pay some taxes to occupy the land, or rent to the owner. They all miss that to sell ‘produce’ you need some type of insurance (anywhere in this country anyway). You have to have a large surplus to pay for these fees and taxes. We also have to pay for water rights etc.
Basically it’s illegal for us to occupy land without paying for the privilege, so have to create a surplus, earning ‘something’ from the land. It’s the entire system that demands MORE from everyone to just exist.
It’s great to produce your own products with as much or as little chemical and modern machinery input as you desire, but we are only trying to fool ourselves if we believe there is anything sustainable about it. I suppose it’s all just our own little bit of denial about a bad outcome to believe we can grow enough food in perpetuity for ourselves and our neighbours, and relatives that might turn up when the SHTF and all get along forever without anyone else trying to take our produce.
All without outside inputs, or replacing any broken tool or worrying about how the climate is still rapidly changing, etc..
Sorry Charles, but we do it all for ourselves, and if using a tractor to dig over a portion of the garden this year, instead of digging it by hand is available, then do use it while it’s available to save yourself time and effort today, is my belief (and what my body can handle). Once you’re gone, the ground will quickly be taken over by native plants and weeds, or someone else gardening/farming it their way, which will never be the same as you created.
You do it all for yourself, in the ‘present’ in the process of denying a bad outcome, at some point in the future, so make sure you enjoy how you are doing it and don’t worry about being a purist. If the ground needs potash then buy some potash, likewise for everything else. Trying to build up soils naturally poor in XYZ, via different plantings etc, then trying to grow ABC that is a heavy user of XYZ is a mugs game and your ABC crop would never naturally grow on soil deplete of XYZ anyway, so there is nothing natural about any of it, nor is it sustainable, so just enjoy creating good products for yourself and family and friends today..
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🙂
Things change.
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Hello Hideaway,
About “The future is all doom and gloom because no-one wants to try and take any action to avoid it”, I was wondering, what action you would recommend.
Regenerative agriculture clearly seems to me one of the things, but that too you seem to advise against. So I don’t really understand your position.
Also, please try not to judge the actions of others through your own lenses. There are many ways to experience life. Some people like what other find a chore, some fear what other look for… To each his own. You may not believe it. That’s ultimately your freedom.
🙂
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My friends,
Hope you and your families are well. Thank you for sharing your honest exchange and allowing me to connect on many levels with both your views. In my opinion, neither precludes or excludes the other, as above all we still have free agency to decide how we perceive and what our mental, emotional, and physical reactions will be. I think at the core you are both saying this, just with different filters. In my interpretation, Hideaway is of a radical reality of that what is so (after all, that is the title of this post!) and any decision one makes is just that, but not expecting we can or should direct the wider course whilst Charles is embracing acceptance of infinite shades of perceived reality with the possibility that singular actions have power to change. Ultimately, the universe absorbs it all and I know you both agree to that, we all do, even if we don’t realise it! It’s just so uplifting to know there’s a place here (thank you, Rob!) for all of us to feel free to be the versions of humanity that we are.
This particular exchange recalled to me a Buddhist parable that has impressed me on many occasions on the nature of wisdom and compassion. Thank you for indulging my sharing of it here.
A Buddhist master was encouraging discussion over a particularly tricky passage in scripture with three of his disciples. One disciple gave a very clear and logical exegesis of his interpretation, harking back to prior scripture to provide evidence for his conclusions. ”You are correct.” pronounced his master, and that disciple bowed and excused himself from the gathering. One of the remaining disciples emphatically disagreed with the first’s reasoning and proceeded to give a very passionate exposition for his diametrically different view, to which the master also pronounced “You are correct.” The second disciple seemed mollified, bowed and left the room. The remaining disciple was stymied, having heard both presentations and the master’s responses. ”I am the slowest one here and have obviously much to learn, but Master, how can both be correct? Either one or the other is right or can they both be right and wrong at the same time? When each of them spoke it seemed like the truth but now I am so confused, I just don’t know anymore!” To which his master beamed a smile and said “You are also correct!”
Namaste, friends.
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Thank you Gaia gardener.
I feel there is something I need to uncover. I have to push forward even though it may sound a bit agressive and get a bit rough at times 🙂
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Hi Charles, …
“Regenerative agriculture clearly seems to me one of the things, but that too you seem to advise against. So I don’t really understand your position.”
I’m not advising against doing it for yourself at all. It’s the belief system that goes with it I’m against, as it’s still a denial of reality, in thinking it’s sustainable in the long run.
My opinion is about farming or agriculture, the notion that any of it is ‘sustainable’ at all. It clearly isn’t because the very notion of every type of farming is to produce an excess to sell somewhere else. It’s mining the minerals from one place to take to another, all done in modern times by growing plants that are not natural to the area.
Every type of farming is artificial, as the natural world is a system in equilibrium for a time, until ‘something’ changes (say climate), the entire system changes with different climax species and a new equilibrium is reached. Everything stays within the system, except for what is washed down rivers, and even this minor change in nutrients will change the ecosystem in the longer term.
Many species on this planet have existed for many millions of years. Crocodiles have existed in pretty much the same form for 200 million years, that’s long term sustainability. Our farming practices, whether regenerative or something else have zero hope of that type of longevity, because we take minerals from the soil to other places, towns and cities and cannot return them all to the original area without huge energy use of some type in transport, both ways. It’s all an artificial system and delusional to think differently.
I certainly understand that none of us want to let go, so we all clutch at anything that looks so much better than the direction we are headed. All of us that understand the problems still use these incredible communication devices that allow instant communication across the world. We are part of the overall problem, and it entirely possible there was never any possible way of stopping, nor solution to, the total collapse of modernity that is coming soon.
Sorry to be so doomy and gloomy, but it’s the reality of our situation, a culmination of a couple of hundred thousand years of human’s development and mastery of our surrounds.
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Hello Hideaway. Thank you for continuing the discussion even when we are having a hard time understanding each other 🙂
At one (very ground, human centric) level. Yes, I believe man-made deserts can be grown back to forests (more quickly with the right technique than left alone). I certainly saw how soil can improve. I understand that a forest attracts more life than a desert and that life brings minerals from other places. I do not make any claims about sustainability. I do not say any form of agriculture is necessarily the end-point. I believe any situation however bad can still be made better or worse depending on what we do. I am not claiming regenerative agriculture is the only silver bullet to deploy. I believe it should and will certainly scale (because it is both accessible, out of necessity, driven by people’s will to live). I personally have the luxury of being able to learn these techniques now. If they can be of any use to anybody, I am willing to share them now and then. I know change is coming. I already see it around me far and near. I am not one to sit idle.
We could discuss endlessly the technical details. But this is all secondary.
We could also fight on the true nature of reality without ever agreeing. It may quite possibly be the case, that we do not all have equal access to the various aspects of reality.
You don’t have to apologize to me about being doomy and gloomy. I have myself been there and done that for a time long enough to not be afraid of paper tigers anymore. I now find action guided by fear of poor value.
Ultimately, I am just trying to tell you that these sentences do not reflect my state of being at all:
About the first point. Things are what they are. This doesn’t prevent us from trying to do the best we can, to the best of our knowledge and probably more importantly following our inner guide (heart, intuition, deep feeling of reality). And, then there aren’t any guarantees of outcome. But that’s OK. The process matters, it all matters.
“We do it all for ourselves.” I look around myself and see people doing all sort of things for various things and beings all the time. People love, people care (for their child, husband, elderly, patients, customers, dog, plant…) And I am even ready to concede (even though that is not what I witness) you may be right and that they all ultimately do it for themselves (whatever that word means): but what does it matter for the one receiving?
“and if using a tractor to dig.” Why dig in the first place?
“to save yourself time and effort today.” What am I going to do with the saved time and effort? If I rush all the time, when do I live? Where is the fulfillment?
“don’t worry about being a purist.” My professional life is a constant negociation against the merchants who run this temple. They don’t want me to be a purist in anything. They want to make a quick buck out of badly done work. OK, that’s our culture, that’s our current way of being: productivity, optimization, endless technical means without ends. That’s how you get products which don’t last, vaccines which kill and lives not worth living. I am sick of it. That’s not who I am. (And I quite agree with rintrah who states he can’t stand the techbros because they make the world ugly https://www.rintrah.nl/beauty/. Even though I am pretty sure he and me don’t have the same beauty standards 😉
“If the ground needs potash then buy some potash, likewise for everything else.” What is potash? To me, it’s yet another abstract concept, another detour. I don’t bother about potash when gardening. I see, I feel, I react, I love, even sometimes hurt the plants, the field, life. They give back. We grow and die, intertwinned meshes of beings. It’s even deeper than that: a constant flux. It’s all perfect.
“it’s the reality of our situation, …” To me, this is just one particular way to interpret reality. We are the ones who give all the meaning there is. And yes I agree with Gaia gardener’s Budhist parable. There are infinite, valid ways to read the world.
I understand you are a very intelligent, knowledgeable and practical person with many achievements in his life. Lots of what you say makes logical sense. But it is always negative. Why? I deeply don’t understand you. I don’t understand the doom and gloom. That’s not my experience of life (not that it is without any kind of hardship).
In other words, given the situation as you see it, and acknowledging that the world is not going to end (in that some things necessarily will go on), I’d like to ask you: what would you stand for (despite even impossible odds, reason)? What do you love?
Thank you 🙂
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Hello Hideaway,
I hope you are well.
I was not necessarily looking for it, but while listening to a recent video with Ernst Gotsch, I stumbled about this remark he makes (https://youtu.be/wvEmRngRviU?t=4055) and which made me think of our conversation: “And so nutrients. Hans ???, a scientist last century, microbiologist, In his research he came to the conclusion that in medium so-called fertile loamy soil here in central Europe, we have potassium for at least 80 millions years to harvest every year 4 to 6 tons of cereals”
I thought this might interest you. And I don’t want you to easily discard my arguments under the pretext that I often exude an esoteric flavour not grounded in “reality” 🙂
I have had a hard time understanding him, so was not able to get the name of the scientist he references. If you know who he is referring to, it interests me.
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Hi Charles, When I used potassium as an example. it is just that, one of lots of different nutrients needed by plants and animals. It’s all to do with Liebig’s law of the minimum. If you mine the soil for long enough, eventually something will become so short that the plants you try and grow will become sickly and produce a lot less, eventually to the point of not being able to survive.
Our vegetable and fruit gardens and farms, grow plants from a variety of different regions around the world, they don’t and can’t grow naturally in the one place because they all have slightly different requirements. It’s why they don’t all grow naturally in the area to start with.
The best possible vegetables to grow in your area are obviously the ones that grow there naturally, though often plants form a different region of the world excell at growing, because they don’t have the corresponding pests and diseases from their home area, they grow well for a time anyway, until the natural world catches up with them.
All farming is not natural, we have no hope of understanding all the relationships between the plants we choose to grow, the nutrient requirement, the relationships with all the natural bugs, insects, bacteria, viruses and fungi that grow in the soils, that vary greatly from one location to the next. Plus the crops we grow are vastly different from their natural antecedents. We also don’t and can’t forsee how the local environment will change the natural balance over time in the future.
Plus of course the climate is changing all the time, so trying to keep whatever species growing in our little patch, when in the natural world, their environmental niche would have been constantly moving, or that particular species going extinct, are all examples of human hubris in that we can control the natural world to our advantage over anything more than the short term.
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Argh…
Yes, I agree about human hubris, that we can’t control the natural world or that we can’t hope to understand the intricacies of it all. That’s in fact one of the salient points of Fukuoka: ride the forces of nature instead of constantly going against them to exploit. But before we are able to do that, we have so destroyed the natural processes, that we must somehow let them recover. There are actions which can speed this recovery up. Same with Gotsch, he is advocating for us to re-discover our role as a partner to the whole planet organism. We leave this self-appointed position of owner, master, know-it-all. These are both approaches grounded in humility, love of life, bonding and positivity.
To me, seeing our own hubris, that our suffering is of our own making, is precisely part of the work each of us, westerner need to be doing internally so that we relate differently with the world. Then and while doing so, our ways of being changes.
Going back to the initial essay up there, I find these paragraphs are not true. They are not a fatality. They first and foremost express fear:
Nor this:
It is admittedly a wicked problem (given who human are: destructive, smart, blind and sometimes even evil). But, still many people are doing things. And there are many paths through (even though they, to me, all go through some renewal of our internal being). I don’t know which route will be travelled. But I am confident because this is all a complex adaptative systems, and despite what doomers (and myself) claimed 20/30 years ago, the worst case didn’t realise. And, we haven’t blown ourselves up with nukes (and even there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiotrophic_fungus).
To state my case precisely, the following trends could become dominant: population spreading and relocalization, population reduction, life regeneration, reduction of the reliance on fire (burning of fossil fuels) and shift from exploitation to cooperation (inter/intra-species). The techniques exist, they are spreading. Necessity is kicking in.
Part of me has been starting to think this discussion is getting nowhere… It’s OK. I won’t convince you that doom highlights rays of lights. And reciprocally. I laid out my case up to this point (and will maybe add some arguments, if they come up), for the other readers, especially younger ones. Because you are a very articulate, experienced, intelligent individual. And you seem to have come to the conclusion human beings have created hell on earth and that the species just deserves to be removed. Whatever we do individually or collectively. I don’t see the point. I don’t see what you are advocating. Unfortunately, I didn’t get to really know you, to understand you, to see the core.
Maybe you are in a mourning phase. And I am being to demanding of you? Or just, maybe we are two different generations, so we are in different stages, we had different things to do. I don’t know. I don’t understand. It’s part of the mystery.
All the words in the world are useless compared to personal experience. Despite your experience on the field, I get the impression you don’t seem to have felt the miracle of recovery of life yourself. Maybe you started from a world so rich I can’t imagine it. I started from a city and a spiritual desert. I just have one thing to say to the younger ones: go out, observe and play.
All the best to you Hideaway. It was fun. Thank you.
🙂
(By the way, evolution, species, Darwin, this is only one particular lens on reality. This sack of cells typing on the keyboard is as old as life itself. There must have been a first homo sapiens at some point. So in a way, this lineage is as sustainable as crocodiles. It just chose a different strategy, that of shape-shifting)
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Charles, where I’ve used the term ‘we’ it is the collective ‘we’ of humanity, not every individual, many of whom are already trying to opt out of the rat race whenever possible.
The coming collapse will be different to every prior collapse of civilizations because of the sheer size of our numbers. Even here in Australia, a country that with a ‘native’ population of 500,000 or thereabouts for 60,000 years, changed the natural vegetation of the the land massively and sent many mega fauna into extinction. Now we have 27 million and have a massive immigration program.
We don’t have as many guns as other places, but more than enough to send most mega fauna into extinction in a mad rush for food once collapse happens.
Farming, involves taking food to towns and cities, once we have eaten the megafauna, there will be nothing but humans to pull carts of food anywhere. We wont be taking anything more than a few miles which will prevent towns from getting to any size.
In the US, every prepper and every ‘doomster’, thinks they are going to survive by their ability to hunt wild game. There are so many guns and so many people that megafauna doesn’t stand a chance, including cows, horses, pigs and goats.
You mention relocalization of city people to country areas. My immediate thought is what shelter will these people use? Where will the materials come from to build shelter after collapse? The sheer numbers we are talking about would cut down every tree to build some type of makeshift shelter.
It’s the massive overshoot of humanity that’s the problem. The UK could support 4-5M people going back a couple of centuries, now has 67 million, all of whom will try to escape to the countryside when collapse happens. It’s the phase of these vast hordes of people trying to survive that will cause immense damage to everything living in the countryside. These spreading masses will also burn everything they can find to keep warm and eat everything in their path that looks slightly edible.
I might sound really doomerish, but I’m just trying to relay to people the reality of what’s going to happen, based on human history with much lower numbers involved.
If you think the modern human is going to do something vastly different to those from historic times, in times of desperation, then I’m all ears. I’d love there to be an alternative to the collapse that’s coming ‘sometime’ in the next decade or so, but so far all I’ve ever seen is a lot of wishful thinking and straight out denial of bad times ahead.
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All true which again explains why population reduction is the only good path, even if there is not enough time to avoid a lot of suffering.
And yet, only a tiny minority of overhoot aware intellectual leaders publicly call for population reduction policies.
Shame on the silent people.
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Rob, the only sane things to do, like a lottery for having children, compulsory contraception for the rest, free availability of life ending drugs for those who wish to end their lives because of infirmity (or any other reason), with encouragement or perhaps even incentives for the remainder of the family are way out there type of thinking.
Yet we have let overshoot go so far, that anything less guarantees massive suffering in the future. Even with the above type of radical policies, I only think it would reduce a bit of suffering and are really of policies that should have been brought in when the population was around 3 billion or less, with an attempt back then to get population under 1 billion by the year 2000.
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It’s so obvious, and so obviously the right thing to do, and yet no one discusses it.
Maybe there’s another level of denial that blocks even the likes of Hagens and Murphy and Jancovici and Bradford and Michaux and Friedemann and Martenson and Watkins and Heinberg and Morgan and Berman and etc.
The only one who gets it is Alpert, and the other overshoot aware leaders think he’s crazy.
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I’ve read the whole thread down to here (May 6 10:45pm) because I have come to the same unvarnished conclusions as Hideaway, after 20 yrs of energy constraints awareness. And I am a confounded permaculture based mixed farmer who knows it’s always been unsustainable. Now what?
Let the music begin!
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Here’s a graph you might all like on minerals for different “green” solutions
1713837164866 (1009×622) (licdn.com)
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Politicians need to sell voters hopium about maintaining our “non-negotiable” way of life.
John Michael Greer once said that the American way of life is non-negotiable in one way: No amount of negotiating is going to save it. (paraphrased)
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The future is unfolding as many predicted.
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(this film is from 2018 so its probably already been mentioned, but just in case you missed it or are new)
Saw this a couple years ago but watched it again recently. These types of films are so much better for me on the second viewing couple years later. The writing is good with a very strong energy focus. It does have some cheesiness. “we’re all in this together” and “if we do this now, we will be able to blah blah blah”. But they probably have to say that crap in order to get funding.
Nate Hagens, Joseph Tainter, and Ugo Bardi were just some of the highlights. And if you have no interest, at the very least its worth watching for five minutes starting at the 17:42 mark. Nice simple breakdown of energy and how we got here.
(even “The Dude” was overshoot aware before me)
Living in the Future’s Past | AWARD WINNING DOC | Jeff Bridges | Environment (youtube.com)
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Has anyone heard about the heat wave in Asia?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-asia-2024-deaths-india-severe-weather-climate-change/
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My friend Panopticon is covering it. Looks like there are heat problems in South America too. The rest of world is experiencing floods or drought.
I can’t read his report every day. 😦
https://climateandeconomy.com/2024/05/02/2nd-may-2024-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/
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https://www.okdoomer.io/were-watching-the-elite-panic-in-real-time/
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Chris Martenson covered it today:
1) Smells like another gain of function lab leak. Why would they stop? They experienced no punishment for causing covid.
2) No need to panic, not a single human dead yet.
3) Expect beef and chicken prices to increase because regulators are using this as an excuse to make it harder to be a farmer.
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Remember the Rintrah article you linked to on April 25?
https://www.rintrah.nl/who-wants-some-milk/
In the U.S. it is still legal to feed chicken poop to cows, even though that practice is banned in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the European Union.
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Rintrah is a vegan with rabies so a little thought outside of his bias is warranted.
His thoughts on covid issues are very valid but lets not repeat non thinking responses
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Yes, I read Rintrah with a BIG filter. He’s a very strange person. Maybe crazy.
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So many things stink, and almost no one cares.
They’re getting away with it.
Plus:
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Both these videos were interesting. However, voting for RFK Jr is just the lesser of three evils, probably much less worse than the other two. RFK Jr. is all behind Israel and it’s genocide in Gaza. Even he can’t buck the AIPAC lobby’s hold on the US government. I probably would vote for him as opposed to either Trump or Biden, in that he’s aware of the danger of both censorship and Big Pharma and it’s control of the government. Judge Napolitano had Andy Biggs (Republican from Arizona) on his show the other day. Biggs is standing up to AIPAC, and he admits it might kill his chances for re-election. However, the most interesting thing he said was that he thinks the US Congress is completely captured by Big Pharma and they’re the ones you have to be scared of.
AJ
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I’m still not sure if the main covid cuplrit was pharma or the US bioweapons program.
It’s probable the mRNA debacle was primarily the fault of government which explains zero accountability and zero steps to prevent a recurrence.
Does anyone have any idea why US enemies do not undermine the US by leaking what actually happened?
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humanity is to blame
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Humanity for not giving a shit and believing transparently thin bullshit?
Or those damn denial genes?
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hard to tell and it annoys us all the same
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Every human has flaws. I’m thinking there will never be a better political candidate anywhere. His books are amazing. Trump and Biden probably don’t have the skills to even read RFK’s books, let alone write them.
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Agreed; everyone (from the U.S.) here should watch those two videos above (the first was the best). RFK Jr. is smarter than either Biden or Trump by miles and miles. Biden and Trump are intellectual midgets in comparison. Not to put too much into it, but I knew a fellow attorney who was a great trial litigator and he said that what he loved about being an attorney was that he would work on many different cases (medical malpractice, torts, car accidents, construction defects, etc.) and in each one to be successful he had to learn another discipline better than his opponent in order to educate the jury and win at trial. Obviously from the above videos RFK Jr. is such an intellect. (I just wish he wasn’t captive to the Zionist lobby).
AJ
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Agreed.
I think both sides are to blame for the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. They both ignore the core conflict issue which is that there is not enough land and water for the number of people that want to live there, and both are trying to increase rather than decrease their populations.
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I am of the same opinion. 50+ years of failed leadership. The outcomes of terrorism and genocide were so painfully predictable.
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Still, there are some political thinkers, who believe we shouldn’t blame any of our representatives. To them, it is the system of election that leads to the institutions/law being robbed by the powerful. Since, if you have money, you can push your candidate, who is now in debt to you and is effectively an employee.
They argue, we should replace this system (among others) by a lottery where reprensentative, judges, etc… are replaced every year. This way, they can’t be corrupted (not enough time to identify them, to select them) and are more representative (https://democracywithoutelections.org/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortition, https://brill.com/view/journals/dyp/56/2/article-p136_003.xml)
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My first exposure to RFK Jr.’s running mate. She seems intelligent and wise and maybe even overshoot aware. I bet she will be popular with young people.
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Wow. They discussed healthy soil, regenerative agriculture, unhealthy food, chronic health problems, a broken health care system, a government that never tells the truth, and many more important issues.
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We are so screwed.
https://climateandeconomy.com/2024/05/04/4th-may-2024-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/
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We are very dry here in NZ where I live. Plus, it is still very warm. Only two months left to the shortest day. El Nino came late here. The dry conditions are not good because we haven’t been able to grow as much grass for winter grazing.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_Initiative
Ever wonder why there is so much immigration to Canada? Here may be why.
Some moron in the U.S. suggested the U.S. grow its population to 1,000,000,000 to compete with India and China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans
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Hideaway today again demonstrates that facts and logic do not change minds. Click the link to read the reply by OFM which simply ignores all of Hideaway’s points.
It would be very tricky to be an aware leader today. Maybe RFK Jr. has a chance because he doesn’t appear to be overshoot aware.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-3-2023/#comment-774556
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Whenever I see ads for cars online, they are usually for absurdly oversized gas-guzzlers, even with gas prices above $4.00/gallon. Why aren’t they promoting more energy efficient sedans?
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Probably two main reasons:
1) Margins are higher on more expensive vehicles.
2) A lot of citizens want big gas guzzlers. The Ford F150 is the most popular vehicle in the US.
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Even better the F350 diesel with 20,000 lbs tow capacity so you can tow a big home on holidays. These are very popular trucks. Why do we even have these vehicles for personal use? They are designed to tow big loads not for going to the store for milk.
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https://www.collapse2050.com/how-to-collapse-hyperinflationary-bust/
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Preptip: Take advantage of sales. On every weekly shopping trip I purchase about 2x the calories I consumed the previous week and put the extra in storage. It takes a lot of time to build up a good buffer if you want to do so by taking advantage of sales.
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reading that, I realize it s a whole different mindset that I don’t have, to be deliberately stocking up now already, on foodstuffs. Plus all the useful tools, usables, etc.
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What do you believe is the correct response to our overshoot predicament?
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I could be interpreting incorrectly, but I read Ian’s comment as the same mindset as me. Not capable of stocking up and preparing for the worst… because collapse does not seem like it is happening tomorrow or next month. So I think he is just amazed that some of you can hunker down and prepare (the correct thing to do)… while the rest of us procrastinate and assume the grocery store will still be open tomorrow.
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Correct response to our overshoot condition?
Good to put me on the spot this sunday morning! Hi Rob, here goes.
First, good for whom? you and me or even our generation? Different answers. Good to run out the clock, I’d do what I am doing and it sounds similar to you. I’m a “doomer-boomer-farmer, downwardly mobile, neopeasant cognescente” by choice. I’m not yet so motivated to stockpile drygoods and foodstuffs. (That was the point of my comment above. Kudos to you and I’ll probably regret not bothering.)
I actually think the Octavia Butler duology Parable of The Talents/Sower is a good and useful scenario to build from. Start by moving to a less dangerous more climate/resource benign area, scavenge regularly for metals and discarded useful tools, suss out an purpose/meaning philosophy (eg god is change etc), set up a community in a rural area (the stazi still found them), grow food, learn native plant medicines, learn selfdefence and weapons, etc. Reading historical accounts of settler lifestyles and howto manuals should give some clues to what level of hardship and resourcefulness the survivors will experience, if not they won’t survive. That’s for the millenial generation and their kids.
How long before we (north american top quartile) are back to a 1950s level of consumption? And then on downward from there? I’d say 20 years. With a major depression sandwiched in there sometime. All bets off the table if www3 now under way goes nuke.
And on that point, I have never seen any theory or investigator make the case that the wild weather events are the result of HAARP type weather mod weaponry by all major powers… The silence makes me suspicious. Already the anti-OWG anti-biggov anti-fascist crowd is trying to position the climate crisis as a hoax perpetuated by the elite to distract the masses. Meanwhile TPTB engineer a population reduction via mRNA genetic mass vaxx, via war, via starving the UN relief efforts.
What should we do in response to overshoot? We the people/species should indeed reduce population by half or more. As you know Jack Alpert has run the numbers keeping the birth rate below the death rate by enough for a decade or two. Refocus the climate debate to address land (mis)use more than co2 pollution to restore lost recycling of water (regenerative ag, afforestration, spongey cities, less hardscaping, more beavers (seriously), rejig social safety net for lower population, seriously tax away economic rents and capital gains). It’s not an exhaustive list, but that would do a lot to lengthen the glide path for humanity, not a nirvana.
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Hi Ian, thanks for explaining. Sounds like we are on a similar path. I agree with your plan. Glad you don’t think I’m crazy for stocking some extra food.
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https://www.indianweb2.com/2024/04/two-largest-floating-solar-plants-of.html
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LOL. Who would have ever thought that weather could destroy something this precious!!! The phrase “bull in a china shop” comes to mind.
I dont see an intelligent species behind this magnificent engineering endeavor. Just a bunch of desperate confused apes.
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In a world of storms having increased intensity, we couldn’t design a floating solar array to withstand storms. Perhaps they thought they would never get them.
Increasingly I’m thinking most major solar and wind installations are nothing more than a scam paid for by subsidies from the government, then quickly sold to whatever pension fund that wants ‘green’ credentials in their portfolio. No doubt someone will sue someone over the failures, but it’s odds on the company that built it already went bust after all the funds were withdrawn in overpriced management fees and directors wages, so no-one to sue..
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B apparently does not buy into my MORT+MPP explains everything story.
As usual with critics, he does not offer another theory that explains all of the evidence. Like, for example, why only one species believes in life after death. Or why well educated polymaths when presented with undeniable evidence still aggressively deny overshoot. Or why almost no environmental organizations have population reduction as a top priority.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/red-herrings-transhumanism-and-well
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Trying to be fair with my judgement of this article (because I love B but was annoyed with this right off the bat). My defensiveness for denial is starting to be akin to my defensiveness for Quinn’s sustainable cultures. So I have to keep that in mind…. It is possible that denial is not the correct aspect or piece of the puzzle. I have to accept that…. But nothing in this article helped to sway me off the Denial bridge. In fact, in an unintentional way, it only reinforced my denial beliefs.
“This is how every civilization’s age of reason ends… Dazed by the riches to be made, they fail to recognize (let alone respond to) the many underlying predicaments of their time — rising inequality, injustice, depleting resources, skyrocketing debt levels, climate change… ”
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Exactly. B was uncharacteristically lame today.
I’d be happy to replace MORT with a better explanation of the insanity that surrounds us. But it has to address the evidence head on. Oblique explanations are not acceptable.
Perhaps B suffers from the same syndrome as Simon Michaux, denial genes that won’t completely quit?
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If MORT is true, the story of humanity will turn out to be a tragedy. The species intelligent enough to realize it is in overshoot doesn’t do much about it due to denial. It is a tragedy because of the (likely millions) of species we will drive extinct and the billions of humans who will die prematurely during the “population correction”.
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Hideaway on the downslope.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-3-2023/#comment-774616
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Hideaway with another important concept:
Any energy system that does not generate a profit must consume the profits of another profitable energy system.
This means that when oil becomes unprofitable due to rising depletion driven extraction costs, most modern renewable energy sources will fail.
Wind for sailing ships and grinding grain, water wheels for small engines, and wood for heating will probably continue because we know they can be profitable without oil.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-3-2023/#comment-774598
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David Attenborough via the BBC just released a new documentary series on mammals. It’s available for download at the usual torrent sites.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001xxn5
Attenborough and Ken Burns are perhaps the last sources of high quality documentaries. I’ve collected documentaries for about 30 years and have watched them steadily dumb down like everything else in our culture.
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Hello Rob,
Thank you for that, a new documentary from Sir Attenborough is a boost of joy indeed! I have to come to see David Attenborough as some kind of talisman for our planet. His ability to spark awe for our home planet combined with the highest level of visual technology attained through these closing years of civilisation is nothing short of a wonder in itself. I cannot view his documentaries without tears of raw emotion, how else does one respond to honouring and fare-welling life? Every day that I wake up and do not see his obituary is another day reminding me that we are all living on borrowed time, and we are hurtling faster through change. Long may this paragon live, surely when his light goes out we will finally know ours are flickering to the end.
Namaste, friends.
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Yes I agree. He is a very good man and he is one of the few that has spoken honestly about overshoot and over-population. I find it hard to watch his documentaries because I know what he films is now rare and getting rarer.
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It happens to be Sir David’s 98th birthday today what that man has seen and done in his lifetime, or even what that man hasn’t seen or done!
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I just checked my library. I have 120 documentaries totalling 353 hours of play time by David Attenborough. I believe that’s everything he’s made.
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https://energyskeptic.com/2024/lab-grown-meat-is-energy-intensive-and-up-to-25-times-worse-for-the-climate-than-beef/
Lab-grown meat will not bail us out.
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Oh no, it’s a code red alert!
Ukraine might use long range missiles to spoil Putin’s inauguration party tomorrow and Russia might retaliate with tactical nukes.
Or maybe not. Who knows?
Tensions do seem to be trending in the wrong direction.
My prepping focus now is shifting to DIY supplies like nails, screws, and plumbing emergency repair parts.
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Got fed up today at my insurance company job which is dedicated to helping corporations hide money. So I said “fu#k it” and decided to surf the web all day instead of work.
Was worth it because I found this great essay by Gail Zawacki. The comments caught my attention because Dowd was involved and he even mentioned Rob. Gail cracks me up with her blunt wording, and Michael is laying it on thick in the 2nd reply. They were both feisty about this topic you can tell. Ahhh, RIP to both of you, the world is not the same without you. And I included one other commenter because she give’s Rob a shout out.
Sorry if I am the only one interested in these old comments, but I find them fascinating. If a civil war ever breaks out amongst the overshoot aware community, this subject (sustainable cultures) will most certainly be the reason. 😊
Michael Dowd July 5, 2019 at 1:20 PM – There is really only one major thing I would take issue with…… ecocentric, rather than anthropocentric. In other words, their technology, their settlements, their ways of exchanging goods and services, their education, their community, etc were (more or less) in accord with the needs of the biosphere.
Gail Zawacki July 5, 2019 at 2:40 PM – Thanks Michael but I’m not buying it, sorry. Humans aren’t special, and to me any religion or “spirituality” is mumbo-jumbo woowoo that people make up to fend off reality. We are no different than any other biological creature and what we ALL do, is grow our numbers until we hit some sort of limit.
Michael Dowd July 6, 2019 at 9:50 PM – I actually spent quite a bit of time this morning pondering how really bright and generally not-denial-prone folk like you and Rob Miercarski can possibly hold such silly and erroneous beliefs such as there have been “zero sustainable cultures” (his claim) or when you write, “the noble primitive and peaceful and sustainable indigenous savage was ever really a thing.”
Lidia17 July 7, 2019 at 8:57 PM – Rob M.’s blog links to the MORT theory make a lot of sense to me.
Wit’s End: In Praise of Themis (witsendnj.blogspot.com)
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Thanks, that brings back good memories.
I spent a lot of time with Gail and her little community on Facebook. It was a great place. I miss her a lot.
Slowly, slowly the un-Denial community is becoming bigger and more active. Maybe someday we’ll become as popular as what Gail created. Or maybe not, it doesn’t matter.
Gail had a powerful intellect, a wonderful personality, and fabulous gift for writing.
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Dear Rob,
I hope thou are feeling well.
Is there such a Facebook group still in existence?
Could thou please share the link?
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Sorry I don’t know if the group is still running. I closed my Facebook account many years ago. It was a private group called The Panic Room.
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It looks like it is closed. A few of my facebook friends were members
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Indrajit Samarajiva discloses that he has lost two thirds of his income for writing about the genocide. Sounds like he’ll be leaving Medium. I think he’s a good writer with integrity.
https://indi.ca/demonetized/
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Trying to make money out of gloom and doom is a fool’s errand. If you want money, write about how everything is rosy if people follow the latest XYZ new technology and hand wave away all reality. Unfortunately it’s that simple.
People will pay to believe in a rosy future, isn’t that what all religions are about?
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Sad but true. Also true that the more money you make the more damage you do.
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Houston, we have a problem if we can’t figure out how to grow potatoes on Mars.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/05/how-far-are-stars/
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A reminder of what is easy to forget.
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So which will it be: A $1,000,000 menu at McDonald’s or the Great Depression on steroids?
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I don’t travel and I don’t eat out so I don’t have a good sense of what’s happening in the economy. Karl Denninger does and says he’s seen recent changes that indicate a big problem.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=251265
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I follow this person because occasionally there are gems. This post and the list of aphorisms are interesting and sometimes correct. I found the last one prescient for those of use who see collapse/death possibly coming soon.
https://www.gurwinder.blog/p/30-useful-concepts-spring-2024?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=3jorpw&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
The last aphorism:
One day you’ll do something for the last time and never know it. So, whether you’re watching a sunset or arguing with a friend, ask yourself: “What if this was the last time I experience this?” A sense of finality can turn even nuisances into miracles.
AJ
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aka mRNA is safe and effective
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This is so true! Sometimes you can’t even find the source’s source
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I’m just so green and sustainable…
Today I flame weeded my organic carrots with organic propane.
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Hey Rob,
You either forgot or deliberately chose not to use your sarcasm emojis skill which you recently acquired. But still, we’re all here so proud of you for being the poster child of green and sustainable in your latest endeavour. Keep the updates coming!
(here I would insert a winking eye emoji if only I had a brain to know how to do so)
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If my sarcasm is obvious I worry about offending the reader by implying they need an emoji to understand reality.
I also started some kale and chard from seed today in the greenhouse and hope to transplant them to the field in a few weeks. This was a completely green and sustainable process except for the potting soil that came wrapped in plastic, and the organic fertilizer that was made from non-organic dead animals in a giant fossil fueled machine, and the plastic trays that I planted the seeds in, and the plastic covered greenhouse that is keeping them warm.
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I probably should have posted this under Charles and Hideaway’s thread above, but I did not want to intrude on their epic conversation. Hideaway mentioned crocodiles having a 200-million-year run. For some strange reason something clicked for me with this statement. I’ve been looking at “intelligence” as an evolution & time thing. Meaning that if Native Americans had no contact with the Old World, and now have the chance to make a run like the crocodiles, they would not be able to sustain it because evolution would keep increasing their intelligence factor over time to the point where they will get too clever for their own good and end up destroying their environment and/or themselves. But why have the crocs been able to do it? Isn’t evolution pushing their intelligence levels upward?
A while back I stopped thinking of it as intelligence or cleverness and replaced it with EROEI. Makes much more sense this way. EROEI governs everything to the point where an alien without even looking at Earth could predict with great accuracy, the details of a human culture just by knowing what their EROEI is. Evolution and Time seem much less important than EROEI. So those crocs have lasted so long because their EROEI has remained relatively the same for 200 mill years.
When you play this out, the dreadfulness for us Quinn fans begins to set in. No idea what those crocodiles EROEI is but for humans to have that kind of a long existence, I’m guessing 1.1 – 2.2 max. A good example to look at is the differing lifestyles of two great movies set in the past. 1990 Dances with Wolves (200 yrs ago) and 1981 Quest for Fire (80kya). More guessing from me, but the Sioux tribe in Dances have an EROEI of 3.8 and Ron Perlman with his tribe in Quest have 1.5 EROEI.
Quinn, Dowd, etc., never focus on this important factor (Quinn does to an extent, but it needs to be more spelled out) that to be sustainable and have no negative impact on Mother Earth, you have to be (and stay which is the key) as “dumbed down” as Quest for Fire. Nobody in this current EROEI level culture can accept that answer (which is probably why its not focused on). But I’m sure there are millions of other species that would gladly jump for joy at the chance of having a Quest for Fire lifestyle. And yes, us Quinn fans want the Dances w/ Wolves life to be the 200 million year thing, but I now know that’s impossible once you get up to their level of EROEI (3.8).
If the purpose of life is for life to thrive and go on as long as possible… and in order to achieve that, no species can ever get above a certain EROEI level… Well, for a brain with the intelligence levels that today’s EROEI provides, this basically means there is no point to life. And this is where the spiritual/religious/voodoo stuff actually helps me sometimes to see the beauty of it all. But the human supremacy in me still asks “Is there really no need/want/purpose for intelligence of this magnitude anywhere in the universe?” If I am correct and the answer is a big fat “NO”, then it is much easier to conclude that there is no meaning or purpose of life. But I think that is the point of it all. Nothing.
Humans with our energy slaves have cheated so hardcore at life and are now at the point where we ignorantly ask what the point of it all is. I can picture George Carlin as God answering the question: “Nothing you assholes!! You shouldn’t even have the EROEI to be able to think/speak/ask that question. You are a complete accident/disaster. Now get your asses back down to that 1.5 EROEI like everyone else so that you don’t end up destroying everything I have worked so hard to create.”
I think I can finally abandon Dowd and Quinn’s rosy picture of human sustainable cultures being driven by wisdom. Feels like I’m onto something here but at the same time none of this logic is new or groundbreaking. A while back Rob summed it all up for me with this perfect reply:
“It was because our population was constrained by resource scarcity, as it is for all other species. For the last 10,000 years we broke through normal resource constraints with agriculture (bigger share of solar energy) and fossil energy (ancient solar energy) and became a destructive unsustainable species…”
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Epic conversation! Never heard of Quest for Fire but oh my god that is hilarious. 80,000 years ago humans were the same as they are now. Homos have been using fire for 1 million years 🙂
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Thanks Monk. Ya, I remember struggling with that. I chalked it up to the director/writer got the years wrong. But is there any chance in hell that some tribes hadn’t conquered it yet? For some reason I can buy it.
btw, It’s a really good movie. Highly recommend for this site. Took me years to finally watch it because I thought I would hate the grunting cave man stuff.
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To answer your question on any tribe not having fire, almost certainly no. Remember homo sapiens have existed through two serious ice ages and first appeared in a glacial maximum. We are descended from fire using homos, and we were not the only homo using fire, e.g., Neanderthals were very competent with making fire.
This is also why I find raw food diets hilarious. Talk about a step back in evolution by a few million years LOL.
main-qimg-7af2867535fa7a097a199076ff4fc48f-pjlq (602×266) (quoracdn.net)
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Gotcha. Thanks monk. Ya, I am still guilty of naively thinking life 50,000 years ago was the same as 1 million years ago.
How about what that old hound dog Rob 😊 is talking about. There is a scene where a female from a more advanced tribe introduces the missionary position to a male from a less advanced tribe (they only knew about the doggy style position). Do you think that too would have been common knowledge by 80kya?
And not sure I understand the raw food thing… Are you saying that we have been cooking our food for a million years so going back to raw food is unhealthy?
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Some people eat 100% raw food because they think it is unnatural to cook food. Nothing wrong with eating raw food 🙂
I have no idea about positions LOL but anthropologist do think pre-historic people had a lot more sex than their civilized counterparts. No idea how they think they know this though hehe.
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Cooking is essentially pre-digesting food which means we can have smaller guts which means ceteris peribus more energy and materials are available for other useful structures like a bigger brain.
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I saw Quest for Fire in the theater when it was released in 1981. My date didn’t like the sex scene. I did.
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A comment on your opening thought experiment about what would have happened to Native Americans had they remained isolated. All 8 billion people on this planet are more or less gentically identical. That’s because our species was bottlenecked and we all descended from one small tribe about 1-200,000 years ago that apparently experienced a rare double mutation for an extended theory of mind and a tendency to deny unpleasant realities.
Geographic differences in climate and diet have caused some minor differentiation like skin color and lactose digestion but we’re all basically the same.
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I totally agree. But you’re reply seems odd. I was not implying anything about humans being different. Was just using the Natives as an example for a small population of humans going through Evolution and Time to compare it with the crocodiles.
However, after reading my opening paragraph again, I can see why you may have thought I was “going there” especially considering my comment history on this site 😊. I should have used a better example to avoid any confusion.
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Sorry, I misunderstood you.
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No problem. No apology necessary.
The funny thing about this is in the moment I thought I it was my masterpiece. Just read it again and maybe I’m saying nothing and repeating EROEI a million times. My award-winning thoughts yesterday were more about how energy is the be-all and end-all which means humans conquered God.
Before my arrival to un-Denial I was positive about there being lots of life in the universe much more advanced than us. I mean c’mon, its too big. I even thought you’re “peak of whats possible” was some laughable BS. Four months later and a lot has changed me here. Its the quickest burst of new info (that makes sense for the puzzle) that I’ve had in any part of my journey. And now its not just that I agree/believe with your website, but I’m starting to see it more clearly finally. Conquering God does not happen and if some miracle of infinity there were a few others besides us, then I already know (prior to undenial) they had massive overshoot and did not make it (or sustain it).
But there are no others and there never were. With MORT, ext ToM, MPP, and throw in my new god EROEI (I really like this better than saying fossil fuels), its absolute zero chance there have been others. Its depressing and beautiful. But my god, what a fu#king waste of the one and only “peak of whats possible”.
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Awareness of the importance and limits of energy changes everything doesn’t it?
My favorite book of all time is Dr. Nick Lane’s “Life Ascending: The Ten Great Inventions of Evolution” which explains why we should be in awe of life on this planet, and our brain that figured out how it works. I’ve read it over a dozen times.
It plus Varki’s “Denial” plus Ward and Brownlee’s “Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe” is all you need to understand our place in the universe.
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Hell yes it changes everything! Took me a couple of years to fully understand (on a somewhat expert level) William Rees’s famous line of: “We are living in the most abnormal moment in human history, yet we think its the norm.” But now I have to replace the word human with universe, and it takes on a whole new meaning. Seems like its back to the drawing board for me. I have to go down more learning rabbit holes with concepts like eukaryote. Dammit! I thought my journey was coming to an end, but it might only be in the beginning phase still.
Gonna order a Nick Lane book. If you could only read one, would you choose Life Ascending or The Vital Question?
Seems like the key to it all is in your quotes here: “Life is not some spiritual mystery, but rather a predictable outcome of the fact that the universe abhors an energy gradient, and life is its best mechanism for degrading energy.” (and) “If life is nothing but an electron looking for a place to rest, death is nothing but that electron come to rest.”
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oops. Nevermind. Just noticed that you said Life Ascending was your favorite of all time. I’ll start with that one first. Thanks
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Later tonight I’ll email you a download link.
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Awesome. Thank you.
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Excellent interview discussing the dire consequences of the US having lost all of its diplomacy skills.
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WOW, more and more pundits are saying that we are moving into WWIII (if not already there) and our short term future does not look good. Sorry folks, the west is ruled by dementia Joe and the idiots. Russia now means business and supposedly threatened the UK and French ambassadors in Moscow with destroying targets in France & UK (with possible nukes?). And still the U.S. thinks they can bully Russia (and China). NOT LOOKING GOOD.
AJ
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They know and they are mostly silent.
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What did he say in the rest of the thread? I don’t have twitter.
Which RCP scenario seems most likely? RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 or RCP 8.5.
I personally think that peak oil will stop RCP 8.5 from happening (but could feedback loops bring us there?), but I also think that RCP 2.6 isn’t likely either.
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Here’s the article he wrote – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature
“Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met.”
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I’m not sure why any climate expert would have any doubt about the target of 1.5C not being possible anymore. It’s not like we reduced carbon use at all since the Paris climate talk fest. In reality we have just continued to burn more fossil fuels on average every year since, with no end in sight until we simply reach maximum possible oil production.
The average of the last 12 months is already something like 1.58C above pre industrial times and we’ve only had acceleration in the last 8 years since the Paris talks..
While everything about civilization is downhill after oil production peak, and prices start to go persistently higher, I have no idea if coal burning will then go through the roof in an effort to make CTL or what governments will do. Perhaps nothing and just double down on about the green myth.
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Thanks Campbell.
Stellarwind72, I may be wrong but I don’t think you need a twitter account to read the links I post. They should open just like a web site.
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I’m in the same boat as Stellar with no twitter account. Sometimes the whole thing shows up, and sometimes (like this one) it does not show. No idea why the links are hit and miss like this, but I refuse to create an account.
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Preptip: Today I purchased 1 Kg of 70% Calcium Hypochlorite (aka Pool Shock) for $13. This granulated powder can be dissolved in water to make chlorine bleach for sterilizing drinking water. It has an infinite shelf life compared to liquid bleach which loses 20% potency with each year of age, takes up less space, and weighs a lot less.
h/t to Canadian Prepper for this good idea.
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Was waiting to say this for when we did our collaborative guest essay where everyone explains how they became overshoot aware. I dont have the patience to wait anymore.
The reason I am overshoot aware is because of a Near Death Experience I had a few years ago. I wont bore you with the details (maybe someday I will), but it was just an average run of the mill NDE. The two big takeaways from that experience were an interconnectedness of it all & there is something still going on after death. I was obsessed with these two thoughts and I soon found Michael Dowd and the rest is history.
After my experience, I did a ton of research on NDE’s. 9 out of 10 are the exact same. A bright light. The appearance of a dead relative. And a message of “you have more work to do in this world”. A few other commonalities: During the experience the dead relative (or other people they saw) are not actual tangible things. More like an energy force. And communication is done telepathically. There is an extremely powerful overwhelming sense of peace/love with no ego at all. And afterwards, the NDE person now has an instant knowing/belief (but not forced, more like it was transferred into them) about the interconnectedness of everything. The only common themes that I did not experience was an out of body floating like thing going on, and your life flashing before your eyes.
Could this mean that when the body is close to death and working in overdrive, the brain is having all types of chemical reactions, and the person is just having an acid like trip, and we are channeling everything we think we know about death? Perhaps, but how can the major details of NDE’s be so identical 90% of the time?
With this website changing my view from lots of complex life in the universe to Earth being the only place with it… it’s conflicting with my life after death thing. Makes no sense that there is this next big elaborate thing waiting for us when we die. Especially if we are just some one of kind miracle/accident. But I am being too supremist with that view because it’s totally discounting simple life (and energy in general). And because the NDE happened to me I don’t think I will ever be able accept that it’s just some chemical reactions in the brain.
After 2020 covid, I dumped most of my sources and seeked out new ones to help explain the world to me. So maybe I would have still found overshoot and become awake. But I would have never ended up where I am now without the NDE. Has anyone else here had a similar experience or know someone (that you trust) who has?
p.s. I know I have been posting too much lately. Sorry, but I can’t help it when my mind is spinning like this. Gonna try to chill out and get back into reading books. I’ve got Nick Lane on deck.
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If this site taught you complex intelligent life only exists on one planet them I have miscommunicated what I think is true:
1) Planets that can support life require many rare characteristics (see Rare Earth by Ward and Brownlee).
2) On those planets, simple single cell life will be common, however complex multi-cellular life will be rare (see Nick Lane’s The Vital Question).
3) On those planets with complex life, high intelligence will be extraordinarily rare (see Varki’s Denial).
4) High intelligence on a planet with a fortuitous quantity of fossil energy large enough to create advanced technology will be even rarer.
5) High intelligence with high technology will be short lived due to MORT + MPP + peak oil + climate change + overshoot
6) Being alive to witness and understand the peak of 5 is genuine cause for awe.
Multiplying the probabilities of 1 through 6 results in a very very small number. We’re probably not alone because the universe is so big, but we will be very rare.
Which means we should appreciate our existence much more than we do.
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Damn!!! I love the way you just broke it down like that. Much easier to get the clear picture of it all. Thanks.
But I just inputted all of the info into my supercomputer and it told me we are definitely all alone. 😊
And ya, being in awe of the peak of #5 is criminally undervalued (nonexistent) in our sick society. Trying to get to that Dowd place of appreciation & gratefulness has been an impossible task for me. I hate to overreact, but I think this breakdown of yours is going to help me with some of this living in the moment stuff.
And just wait till I get done reading Nick Lane. I’ll be schooling you on these subjects. 😊
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Ya, I was right about your post. Its real good. I’m sure you’ve written that stuff many times, but have you ever packaged it together like that?
It’s my table (from guest essay) in that it tells such a gigantic story with little info but requires tons of knowledge to decipher and truly understand. Forget the table, I’ll be staring at this when I meditate.
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Thank you for sharing.
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While gardening, I was wondering: did you yourself get the ““you have more work to do in this world” message? And if so, what do you think that is?
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Hi Charles. Yes I absolutely received a message. About a week after it happened I wrote a detailed account of the whole experience. Like I said, maybe I will share it with you guys one day. There is a fear about sharing this stuff. Feels like I will become the guy in a small town that admits to being abducted by aliens and then the whole town shuns him and thinks he is the crazy one. But it is very therapeutic to talk about. (so thank you for inquiring). The other day when I hit the send button for this NDE post, instead of the usual “My god, what have I done! I’m so embarrassed”, it was an instant “My god that felt good, I should have told them a while ago”.
So here you go. I have plucked out the parts of my account that pertain to my “message” so that you can get the gist of it:
Swirling blackness soon disappears. And then I was told that I cannot leave this world until after I help my Mom get through her death peacefully.
Helping my Mom get thru death peacefully. What does that even mean? That was the only part of my experience that was not crystal clear to me. This is where I need to find clarity. Help her to not fear death as much as she does now? Being at her side, holding her hand till the very end? Me being a better person to give her more joy till her end? I dont know. All of the above? None of the above?
(this was an edit I added 6 weeks later) After lots of reading and research on death, it is much clearer to me what my Dad was saying about my Moms death. Its about honoring death. Embracing it. Celebrating it. Be there, comfort, nurture, care for, etc. Instead of being scared of death and shunning it like modern culture teaches us. And not just for my Mom, but for any living thing that is dying in my presence.
(another edit added 3 months later) “everything is connected” is the strongest and most lasting thing from that night. My Dad’s message about my Mom, I can easily forget about for a couple days or so. But not the other thing. Its on the brain 24/7. It has already changed me a great deal. Spent the last twenty years at level 9 on the asshole scale. I’m down to a level 3 or 4 now.
Ok Charles, back to present time. Do you think I’m crazy yet 😊. Almost in a comical way I can picture me being there for my Mom in her final days. And after she passes on, I instantly keel over and die because my work here is done.
Another thought is that the message was related to our collapse. The NDE pushed me into becoming overshoot aware. So helping my Mom get through her death peacefully means me being cool, calm and collective when SHTF. Being prepared, having an exit strategy and all of that stuff.
Chris
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I did not comment on your NDE because I have never experienced anything supernatural and so have no frame of reference. I don’t think you’re crazy. Many people have had NDE’s and believe them to be real. Our brains are complex imperfect computing devices that construct our reality from sensory inputs plus distorted memories plus distorting emotions. It’s tricky to know what is real without the assistance of an external measurement device or other observers that see the same thing. I’d go with whatever makes you feel good about yourself and your family because there is no harm done if you are wrong.
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Thanks Rob. Ya there is a lot of crazy phenomena out there that is hard to explain. And I bet you have experienced some “supernatural” stuff before, but its so bland and subtle that its hard to notice. For example, I had a friend who I had not talked to in years (or even thought about). For some reason I started thinking about them one night and the next morning I had a voice mail from that person just checking in to say hi and wanted to catch up after all these years. That is supernatural in my opinion. Same with that deja vu feeling we get sometimes.
But ya, very tricky to know what is real. And of course, the human mind loves to be a drama queen. Overreaching and connecting dots that are just not there.
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To me, there is no supernatural: it’s all real. It’s just that we tend to reduce reality to what we learned about it. (some say: we forgot who we are)
If I understood well, in hinduism, dreaming state, sleeping state and awake state are put on an equal footing. In the West, we tend to think only the awake state is the norm, the other states are “altered” states of consciousness. Is that really so? (It is worse that than actually, reality is some constructed representation which is supposed to be objective by adhering to the truth which we are being told by scientists. But I digress, again)
So we shouldn’t be surprised when something kicks in which is just out of our mental model.
Reality is so much bigger than what we believe, comprehend, articulate and even experience in the “normal” state of awakeness. Yet, we usually go in loops, experiencing only what we learned to be true.
Life, to me is a constant invitation (sometimes quite painful) to open up to possibilities. Once you open up, you get to see new things, encounter new people. Magic unfolds.
And, no I don’t think you are crazy at all. I’d be thrilled to read your whole NDE account. But maybe not on this site: Rob is very open-minded, but he still has an editorial line to keep which I try to respect (even though I am aware of being on the edge of admissibility :). BTW, Rob is right in that I hate places which got overrun by hordes of trolling gullibles.
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So jealous of how locked in you are to your wonderful special place. My special place comes and goes, but mostly goes. Online educational and spiritual content and reading books will get me there and keep me for a while until the (impossible for me to resist) lure of the “peak of whats possible” snatches me back to the dark side of laziness and many unhealthy habits.
And Charles, you are so weird and not normal (in a good way), I would have no problem sharing my story with you by email.
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Thank you 🙂
I too experience ups and downs 🙂 Although, aging, I got to see that after an up comes a down and then again. Simultaneously, I get to experience every situation more and more like an ephemeral dream that I can just enjoy whatever the outcome. I try to focus on what really matters to me, and let the rest glide (it takes time and experiments to truly know oneself). I try to be nice to people, even if I still carry some amount of inside anger. It slowly drips away by doing things which I love, with meaning, such as building soil, looking at butterflies, or jewel-like insects, teaching younger engineers, smiling to kids and dogs, nurturing my small family… Lastly I learned to accept the “faults” of this being I seem to be somewhat in control of. It’s OK to procrastinate, be lazy, not take on a burden which is too heavy. If I let him be, I know at some point, at the right point, he’ll want to get up and do something else. I still have the constant stream of ideas and negative/positive labelling of the world (I call it the terminator vision). It’s kind of fun once you get that you are free not to necessarily react to it all.
I found out it’s a whole lot easier to be oneself, than any attempt to hide. I find I still have to work on my ability to accept a present (when it’s genuine): my conditioned reaction is always to refuse first. That pride of independence, not wanting to be indebted runs very deep.
It would indeed be a pleasure to read your story. Maybe Rob can put us in contact. Rob, could you be kind enough to send our respective emails to each other? Thank you very much.
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On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America with Abrahm Lustgarten
At the end of the podcast, the host suggests that the U.S. and Canada may merge in the future because of climate migration.
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In this podcast they don’t mention population. Having a population of 8 billion humans is inherently ecocidal.
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Ya, I tried this one. Nothing wrong with Pella, she had many beautiful things to say. But there is something off about this type of interview for me lately. Too much fairytale, not enough reality.
Nates newest one is much better. I’m in the middle of it right now: Zak Stein: “Values, Education, AI and the Metacrisis” | The Great Simplification 122
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I did not enjoy Nate’s recent interview. There’s something very screwed up with the discipline of education. Like clockwork new educators come along with new and better ways to educate people and discard the old ways. Real disciplines don’t do that. They build on and improve the past.
Meanwhile teachers teach nothing that is important, and citizens understand nothing that is important: energy as the source of wealth and food and planetary destruction, how our monetary system works, why we want growth, why growth must end, the implications of the end of growth, the true climate change situation and its implications, overshoot and why humans deny it, etc. etc.
To hell with the education process. They should fix the education content. We could start by forcing all teachers to pass a couple university level physics and calculus courses to screen out the idiots, and then require them to study Martenson’s Crash Course, Hagens’ Reality 101 Course, Tom Murphy’s Do the Math, Jason Bradford’s The Future is Rural, and Varki’s MORT. No exceptions, including elementary teachers.
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I liked Zak, but I also agree with what you said. And we need another course added for those teachers. Whoever is best at explaining our human supremacy. Derek Jensen, Eileen Crist, or someone like that. Oh, and one more thing. They all have to do their thesis on Catton’s book Overshoot.
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My wife is a teacher, so I’ve had a front seat view of how these things work. I think the problem is not so much the teachers is it is a systemic problem. Schools are as much a socialization (programming to fit into society) as it is to learn basic areas of knowledge. So one has to figure out if change is possible upstream of the teachers. Local school boards, state standards, academia chasing the fad of the week, kind set the scene, so no, raising the bar on teacher abilities won’t do much.
As unlikely as the upstream changes are because of denial and inertia, it ain’t going to change.
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Thanks. Content matters a lot more than process.
It doesn’t matter if you bully it into them with a cane, or lovingly motivate them with gold stars, as long as you teach the kids how the world actually works and how lucky they are to be alive on this planet.
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Canadian Prepper has some super secret source with super secret info that confirms SHTF is near.
My take away, buy more food.
Also confirmed by my independent assessment of risks.
I was going to wait for canned chili to go on sale but screw it, I’m buying more now.
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Hello friends,
Today we have the possibility of a G4 geomagnetic storm reaching the earth which could be the singular event that kicks off collapse in earnest. If the grids go down, then this will also be the end of our brief but brilliant sojourn here together meeting at Rob’s corner. This makes AJ’s offering only a few days ago even more poignant, the Finality Clause, everything has a last time to bookend the first and you never know when that will be. If this is to be my final post, I wish to communicate how kith and kin I feel you are through our being able to share, witness, and comfort with one another in these times of awe and how grateful I am for being stardust here with yours. Thank you for your honouring of and contribution to the mystery and possibilities of life. Your unique being-ness has helped define mine through triangulating my finding and knowing my self with another’s perspective. It is an absolute joy and wonder to have been on this same page with you out of all the time and space in this universe.
There may be a poetic justice about it all, the Sun enveloping Earth in a protective embrace, and by one mass ejection our Homo sapiens tenure of dominance may be wiped. Perhaps this could be an allegory of the bright light and sense of total connection with the all as our consciousness and ego lets go and lets be, whether by physical death or chosen awareness.
I wish you and those close to you all that you require to sustain body, mind, and spirit through what we will accept and bear the best as we can. May you know and share comfort, kindness, and peace especially when the way forward may be in shadow. May you know how much you have given and received compassion and love– that has always been your true guiding star and will never fail you.
Namaste.
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The person who writes on spaceweather.com said that although this sunspot is as large as the Carrington event sunspot the most recent CME is the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane and Carrington was equivalent to a category 5. However, this sunspot is continuing to shoot out multiple X class flares (and associated CMEs) every day at the moment. And multiple CMEs are enroute to Earth and can multiply the effect of individual ones. Supposedly the large CME has already hit and Auroras/Northern Lights should be visible tonight.
https://www.spaceweather.com/
AJ
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Enjoyed the aurora this morning in southern Tassie. Best one I’ve seen in over 20years.
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incredible aurora again here tonight. Never seen anything like it. It is pulsating over the sky.
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Bret Weinstein just interviewed an expert on the sun’s activity.
All new to me. Don’t have an opinion.
P.S. Just finished this. Very good. Lots of new ideas I had not heard.
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It’s fascinating to observe intelligent polymaths discuss in breathless detail a 10% probability threat to modernity that can be reduced to a near 0% threat by spending a bunch of money to harden the grid.
Yet the same people are completely silent on, or deny, a 100% probability threat to modernity (overshoot + climate change + degrowth) for which there is no fix and the only good path is to reduce suffering via population reduction.
It’s amazing when you see it.
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Glad he mentioned “Leave the World Behind” because I was already thinking about it before I hit play. (and if you want a self-induced panic attack, watch this interview and then immediately watch the movie. I did it last night, and it was a huge mistake)
Wish he would have turned off the ads for this one though… goes a long way for credibility. I would hope that if this is some clickbait bullshit, that he will lose half his audience. So it seems pretty risky to do if it was not truthful. (but then again, how would they ever know he was lying)
Something about him rubs me the wrong way. He reminds me of the guy in high school who would always be the first one to say he can score you some pot, shrooms, etc…. But when you take him up on his offer he can’t score jack shit.
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Hideaway’s still trying to reason with the denial genes at POB. It’s not working.
POB is a forum for people that study depletion of non-renewable energy. Imagine trying to shift the beliefs of any other group.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-3-2023/#comment-774790
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I have several hundred feet of copper cable that I salvaged from a dead backyard spa. What am I offered? (Of course, this is just a drop in the bucket of needed copper…)
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Rob, on POB, that was started by Ron Patterson, who is definitely very overshoot aware, but he had to allow others to take over running POB because he is just getting too old to do it.
It appears Dennis C is the main person running the forum now and is at the top of the tree in believing the ‘bright green future’, or perhaps is there to stop the word of overshoot being spread.
I find it difficult to believe a person can be so exposed to as many arguments of why industrial civilization must end, yet ignore ALL past arguments to go on with rubbish like he does like (if we just continue growing renewables at x% for y years, everything is hunky dory).
I know I’m hugely repetitive over there, but so are the cornucopians arguments, always ignoring the reality that is presented, from one week, to the next where the old easily disproved statistics he comes up with, re-emerge. A lot of people around the world pay attention to that site, especially the oil forecasts, and I’ve seen Dennis being ‘quoted’ as if an authority. I think I’m always trying to point out his comments really should be taken with a grain of salt, so wont let completely wrong statements sit unchallenged in the comments.
However you are correct about the denial by those on a ‘peak oil’ site, that can’t be convinced of anything, then what hope is there for others…
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Interesting. All of our political leaders, and business leaders, and intellectual leaders, and spiritual leaders, and cultural leaders, and journalism leaders are silent on peak oil.
POB is the only big site that discusses peak oil. Maybe someone powerful is paying Dennis C to sow doubt. It doesn’t take much doubt to derail something.
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I think Dennis is doing his best to understand the world as he sees it but has a very strong BAU bias. It’s like bees where you have some that stay put and others who venture out into the unknown simply based on ‘personality’. As the same kind of evolutionary hedge, some are born pessimists and some optimists. And while his optimism is at some time annoying to me when I need my doom/pessimist nerve itched it’s also pretty clear he does great work with his modeling and at least is very open to discuss his graphs. Also you have to agree that until now the optimists have won the game as we have 2024 and I’m dead or scurrying for food in the remainder of civilization while hiding from cannibals but can post this comment in the comfort of my warm bed with running water and will soon go to a supermarket where I can buy the most exotic fruit and vegetables from all over the world in baskets full for what’s not even a day worth of work.
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Hi Florian, while we have growing fossil fuel use and continued fudging of GDP type numbers to show that everyone in the developed world is better off than 50 years ago, when they are not, especially the young, then all the numbers shown on all Dennis’s graphs will look great. It will appear as BAU is continuing normally until it isn’t, such is the dynamic shift in energy availability once we go from extracting more oil on average each year, to continually less each year, despite a lower EROEI of the obtained oil.
I would expect once we are past oil production peak, with corresponding higher prices, then a lot more ‘other’ energy will be thrown at oil production, making the EROEI worse, but also not really slowing the decline in production (because it’s not physically possible).
The greater energy inputs will go towards the really low quality stuff which we have left, while the really high EROEI oil from wells like the Saudi ones will be rapidly declining, as they try and produce as much as possible in the high price era. So from around the world the high EROEI wells rapidly decline.
Meanwhile throughout the rest of society, there will be less oil and oil products every year. Every human activity that uses oil products will be competing for those products, yet some uses have to miss out. Will it be farmers tractors, large heavy hall trucks, shipping across the world, mines mining all the raw materials to build more of everything? Some of these uses of oil products will not get the required quantity, or perhaps some marginal producers of all of them.
Prices of everything have to rise, including all the ‘renewables’ meant to be replacing fossil fuels, while average earnings are relatively less for all humans based upon lower net energy available on average. Go far enough into the cycle of less production, assuming no catastrophic wars (which is a big ask by itself), and we get to the stage where nowhere near enough food can come from farms into cities, then what? nowhere enough goods’ can be shipped across the seas, lower quantities of every mineral and metal mined. All ‘new’ uses of oil energy can’t happen, like recycling facilities, because they will use huge amounts of oil in the metals and minerals to build them and the internal machinery.
Dennis’s approach is one where we have been going ‘this way’, so can keep going this way, when the climate and environment clearly show we can’t and the physics of all the ‘new energy’ is also totally against us..
Rob, I think I better finish the EROEI work, but it’s extremely difficult to make a short post. If I was to include references for everything, and try and explain all the nuances, it would be lots of ‘theses’, not just a post. I’ll have to start with why EROEI is not a stationary target and never has been, for every form of useful energy, which deeply confuses everyone that’s looked into it in the past. That’s probably a full post by itself!!
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Very much looking forward to a new post but I’m thinking you’ve got a book in you. Maybe start structuring posts as chapters?
No country ever thinks to leave some of the good stuff in the ground for the grandchildren.
More proof we are governed by the MPP I guess.
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Thanks for that info. Helps clear up some questions I had too. I think you and Rob are correct that Dennis is being paid to muck things up. Read my comment below that I was about to send before I saw your reply and it’s even more obvious that Dennis is shady:
Someone a while back had a funny line about Hideaway being sadistic for messing with these clowns. (cant remember who said it and cant find the comment). Might be some truth to that. 😊
But I am more interested in knowing about Dennis and the others background. Do they understand overshoot, but just get hung up on energy? (I dont think you can be overshoot aware and not understand Hideaways comments). Do they hold high level important jobs in the military/govt? (that is a scary, but unsurprising thought). Or are they just a mix of random normal people like un-Denial?
The few times I’ve been on POB, I get a strong sense that I am way out of my league in the IQ department. Seems like a bunch of wasted intelligence over there.
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Paqnation, please never believe your IQ is below others. You may not have done the same research as others on a topic, but it doesn’t mean your IQ is ‘worse’ than anyone else’s.
Whenever I see people deliberately using a lot of hard to understand language on any topic, I never think they have a higher IQ than those they are talking to. Instead I immediately go to the thought of, ‘What are they trying to hide and why?’. This is especially true on subjects/topics I know little about.
Going back a couple of decades, when I was working with top level government officials, specialist consultants, etc, whenever they tried to confuse the issue by using language that others didn’t understand properly, then get a decision from people, I always stated I’d take my decision under advisement. When I then had to explain what I meant, ie I’d go and look it up and seek advise from others, I’d sometimes get confused looks, or just outright hostility about being a procrastinator. It always interested me in how these so called well read people using difficult language to confuse others, suddenly didn’t understand what taking something under advisement meant..
What I usually found was that the people using hard to understand language were indeed trying to hide something, and of course they were angry when I later rejected whatever it was on very legitimate grounds.
Anyway, on POB, the attitude of Dennis certainly seems a lot more than just denial, it’s a type of deliberate denial, which is way worse than ‘real’ denial because of lack of understanding.
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A lot of climate scientists have decided to not speak the truth because they believe panic and/or hopelessness would be counterproductive to making the future less bad.
Perhaps Dennis C is in this camp?
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Dear Rob & Hideaway,
I hope thy are both feeling well.
I came across this article, the antithesis of what Hideaway attentively elaborated.
– Demonstrating how utterly bizarre and absurd such notions are, it is strange how such entities seem to be well versed in poppycock and are handsomely rewarded for their hubris.
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/07/04/how-many-things-must-one-analyst-get-wrong-in-order-to-proclaim-a-convenient-decarbonization-minerals-shortage/
I cannot but think, that all this sheer gargantuan folly is some sort of twisted grand jest.
– Unfortunately, such unseemly displays are nothing short of common.
Nature is merciless and fair,
may she one day guide us after teaching us a valuable and well deserved lesson.
”There is only the law.”
– Oren Lyons
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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I skimmed the essay. A little heavy on attacking the credentials of Michaux, and a lot light on providing data to support its claims.
It definately succeeds at sowing doubt to switch off any unpleasant thoughts about overshoot.
This would be a good one for Hideaway to debunk.
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I’ve read this before, and struggle to pay any attention to an author that takes most of the article to do a character assassination instead of just debunking the argument with facts. he doesn’t provide facts at all, which is why the entire article should really worry the reader..
One aspect most people don’t know about all the figures Simon Michaux has come up with, is that it’s the bullish version. Despite all the extra energy he states is needed for BAU western style, he doesn’t add any extra energy for the mining sector to gather materials in multiples of current mining, all at lower grades. His assumptions include using the SAME energy as in 2019.
Not one of the detractors of his work even wants to look at the extra energy in that sector alone needed for the transition and I’m sure Simon has a chuckle about how ridiculous the detractors arguments really are.
To mine twice the copper we currently do on an annual basis, wouldn’t take twice as much energy, it would be more like 3 to 4 times as much, as we would have to mine a lot of much lower grade deposits than are currently being mined.
Not a single article like this ever approaches how much energy it would take to provide the extra materials needed, but are quick to attack the messenger like Simon Michaux, because they don’t like the message.
Interestingly Simon has found there is no money in spreading the truth, so has opted for the fantastical, u-beaut future where people will pay him for working on fantasy.
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Are cities inherently unsustainable?
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Was gonna reply with a smart-ass comment to your question, but just noticed its a Max Wilbert link. Love that dude! One of my favorites
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RFK Jr says a worm ate part of his brain.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/rfk-jr-says-his-brain-was-partially-eaten-by-a-worm-that-crawled-inside-and-died-everything-you-need-to-know
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Are you making the point that RFK Jr is crazy, or that people are trying to make him look crazy?
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No, I’m not trying to say that he is crazy. A doctor actually told him that a worm had eaten part of his brain.
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Cool. That explains why I like him. It seems the worm ate his denial module.
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My Mom is a huge RFK fan because shes been reading his books. I told her about this brain worm thread we have going. She already knew about it and sent me this link. She is officially now a contributor for un-Denial. 😊
Check out Kennedy’s comedic standup chops. Not bad. And he obviously has a great sense of humor about it. Worm stuff starts around 1:45
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RFK Jr. can also surf. What a cool president he’d make.
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Did anyone see an aurora last night?
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Aurora visible in Northern Kentucky, especially vivid if you use the night mode on a cell phone camera.
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My next door neighbor told me it was spectacular here last night but I missed it. Will have a look tonight.
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We saw the southern lights, aurora astralis, here in the Far North of NZ. First time for me in my 53 years. Pretty spectacular and awe inspiring. Was nice to share it with my teenage kids.
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I had a great time with it! Took many photos. We saw lots of lights shooting across the sky. Lots of colour was visible too. I’m in the south of New Zealand.
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Nice! Seems like half this audience lives in NZ. I get the feeling that if we could calculate the overshoot aware people by country, NZ would be top dog. What the hell do you guys put in the water over there? And please start spreading it into the water supply of my ignorant country. 😊
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Despite NZ having a lot of aware people, Dr. Mike Joy today says his NZ rivers are more polluted than the Mississippi.
https://www.thelentilintervention.org/podcast/episode/7709093a/dr-mike-joy-our-current-eAcological-and-climate-concerns
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oops. Nevermind you New Zealanders. We’ve got enough poison in our water over here. 😊
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How are we supposed to make money if we don’t exploit the environment?! Jeez Rob! [insert the sarcasm emoji here]
Also we love Mike Joy, even if he is a vegan hippy dippy 😉
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I imagine Dr. Joy is super popular with the NZ dairy industry.
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Hahaha yea. I do sometimes wonder if we are just better at testing water quality than a lot of countries are. But yes dairy has a big negative impact on our environment, but is also the reason we are a wealthy country.
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Paqnation you are correct. Most overshoot blogs, facebook groups etc. are overrepresented by New Zealanders. If you add in the Aussies it’s even more.
What could explain it? Perhaps having the highest percentage of non religious people?
Living at the bottom of the world, on an island?
Our ancestors all having something in common by choosing to move to an island at the bottom of the world?
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Indrajit Samarajiva today with a humorous take-down of the US empire.
Too bad he doesn’t understand MORT.
The insanity makes sense in the light of limits to growth caused by depletion of finite resources, MPP driven behavior, and a denial module that blocks understanding of both limits to growth and MPP behavior.
https://indi.ca/what-is-americas-plan/
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I’m sure that Indrajit Samarajiva would understand MORT if he had the time to deal with it, but Sri Lanka is being buffeted non-stop by hurricanes from the Western economic system — they’re too busy trying to grow their own vegetables and in general attempting to become self-sufficient. As the artist Willem de Kooning has said, “The trouble with being poor is that it takes up all your time.”
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Yes, it’s very easy to forget how lucky I am to have been born in Canada. I’m growing vegetables because I want to, not because I have to, although that might change tomorrow.
Denial is obvious to anyone that is aware, however the reason for denial is not obvious. I know about MORT only because I happened to be listening to CBC Radio on June 18, 2013 when Dr. Varki was interviewed and a light bulb immediately illuminated something that had been troubling me for a long time. Without that luck I’d still be trying to understand why so few can see what is so obvious.
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I would love to think it was something other than MORT, and have tried to find out ‘something else’ as being responsible. Instead of genetic I’ve thought it as a ‘trait’, handed down through generations, but what is a ‘trait’ if it’s not genetic?
Basically there is no better reason for human denial behavior, that makes any sense, better than MORT, so MORT it is unless a better theory comes along, but no-one is offering one.
I have to admit that going back a couple of years when I was trying to work out how we could maintain civilization energetically, I always had the though that it could be just denial of bad outcomes, stopping me from thinking of what happens in the future.
Everything clicked into place when I was watching a video on the Fermi Paradox, with what’s called ‘The Great Filter’. None of the options offered in the video was about lack of energy to run the civilizations, which to me was a big weakness of the program. Despite me spending years not being able to find a way energetically to continue modern civilization without fossil fuel, I though it would have been one of the options the writers thought of. Then kicked in my knowledge of MORT and denial by most people..
I instantly thought, perhaps every other civilization has also run past peak fossil fuels, then collapsed, stopping them sending any radio type signals into space, for more than a short period of time, which meant EVERY type of civilization in the universe would run into the same constraints if using natural resources from their world. It means long term modern civilization is not possible, because of energy constraints, reduced quality and grade of ores for all minerals etc, etc.
Another aspect that really helped me understand MORT was the rocks reported on Mars from whichever NASA probe or robotic vehicle. They were exactly the same type of rocks we have here on earth, because naturally the same type of forces and actions created them.
It’s a universal principle of how in physics, processes, temperature and pressure create the same types of rocks from the source material, which means it happens everywhere in the universe. I would expect on every one of the 5,000 planets we’ve found that we could recognise just about every type of rock (BTW geologists are still finding new combinations of minerals in rock here on Earth, meaning its just a slightly different combination of ingredients, temperature, pressure and fluids, that make anything ‘new’).
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It’s hard to overstate how good it feels to know there are a few people like yourself that see the significance and probable validity of MORT.
I like you will happily switch to a better theory if one comes along.
It’s been very discouraging trying to spread the word on something so important for 10 years with almost no success.
MORT is important because every person in the world that is trying to make the future less bad is failing and will continue to fail unless they first find a way to confront MORT, and even then they may still fail due to the power of MPP & MORT, but at least their odds will be greater than zero. This comment is primarily directed at overshoot aware people like Alpert, Jancovici, Murphy, Hagens, and Berman who are still trying. Most everyone else has given up.
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“no-one is offering one.” Really?
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So, no-one seemed to question Hideaway’s claim that no other theory for our denial has been offered. This is despite my offering an alternative hypothesis (MORT itself is not a theory in the scientific sense) many times here. I even put up a post elsewhere about MORT, and my earlier post here, posits that being a species is sufficient explanation. Is denying that other offered explanations exist a feature of MORT or of those other explanations?
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Hello Mike. Since no one is taking the bait, I will. I know you would rather one of the heavyweights (like Hideaway or Rob) reply, but I will have to do for now. Not trying to debate, just throwing in my 2 cents.
God knows I am pro simplification. And since you are simplifying things pretty extremely here, I am a big fan. But I think your theory is just too lazy. The fact that I would love to ditch MORT and go there with you because of the ease and simplicity, gives me a strong gut instinct that it’s the wrong road to go down. (you have to admit, that is some solid scientific reasoning😁)
And although I still cannot properly and impressively describe MORT in detail, the biggest selling point for me when I came here was the gut instinct part. It just feels like there is something here. For how important, destructive and complex denial is, I cannot write it off as “just being a species”. Wish I could though.
p.s. I do enjoy your writings, and I’ve read all three, so please update us when you have a new one on your blog.
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Thanks for being the only one to reply, paqnation. I have no idea what you mean by lazy. Frankly, MORT comes across as lazy because it has no explanation of how a genetic mutation affects thinking in this way. It is just a collection of assumptions. It’s potentially plausible but that’s all.
Another offering was made on denial cause, elsewhere. I included a link on my blog.
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Ya, I know that was a lame breakdown of your theory by me. But something just feels too easy/lazy about it. And youre right about MORT being lazy also. I sometimes tease Rob about it being a cop out for everything… just blame it on MORT. 😊
And I am so out of my element with trying to figure out the reason for our denial that I can only go on what feels right (gut instinct). And so far for me, MORT is the winner.
But the overall message I wanted to convey in my first comment was: I really like what you right about. I’m not totally with you on it, but never say never. So keep thinking of ways to sell that story.
p.s. You had some influence on beating the Daniel Quinn out of me. So I will always have to give you a hard time. 😊
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Art Berman re-summarizes our short term risks.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-biggest-risks-of-this-decade/
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First time I’ve encountered him but Professor Steve Starr seems to be in the same class as Chuck Watson on nuclear weapons knowledge.
This is his site: https://nuclearfamine.org/about-steven-starr/
Skip ahead to 39:53 for Starr’s short presentation. He lists many unprecedented escalations and behind the scenes tensions that I was not aware of.
One of the many issues that has been troubling me is the recent total silence on the Moscow concert hall massacre. Russians don’t forgive, they get even.
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Another salvo from Hideaway. Gotta admire the determination.
It’s a similar dynamic to trying to convince someone there is no life after death. Or that mRNA has more risks than benefits. Logic and facts don’t work.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-3-2023/#comment-774839
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It seems that the only real improvement in living standards in the West in the past 50 years has been faster electronic devices. Other than that, has it improved much? I am too young to judge.
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Many more things than electronics have improved:
There’s a much wider variety of food available.
Surgery, dentistry, and eyecare are better.
Entertainment variety and audio/video quality is better.
Long distance travel is easier.
The reliability, safety and performance of cars is much better. Ten kids in my high school class were killed in car crashes. Air bags, shoulder belts, and crumple zones make fatalities rare today.
Bicycles are lighter.
Hiking and camping gear is much better.
Home insulation and heat pumps are better.
LED lighting is much better.
I’m sure there many more things I could think of with more time.
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One thing has definitely gotten worse.
The peak of good music was Led Zeppelin IV in 1971.
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I think things are a lot better for women in modern times
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That is a big one. Although, I have heard that hunter gatherers have more gender equality than agriculturalists.
In the U.S. (where I live), things have also gotten better for ethnic/racial minorities, LGBT people, and people with disabilities.
When it comes to LGBT people, they may also be better off as hunter gatherers than under civilization.
https://www.nateliason.com/notes/civilized-to-death
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I could tell you heaps of weird gender and sex things that different societies have done/believed from my time studying anthropology. Some of it is really funny like thinking you get pregnant by swimming in the ocean and the ancestors spirits swim inside of you to make the baby. 🙂 Some is super creepy like one society where the mums and dads have the “first sex” with their child of the opposite sex to teach them how it is done.
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True and sadly may take a turn for the worse with collapse.
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Good question! I read a great article a while back that had like 50 or so of these types of observations. Something like how it takes roughly the same amount of time and same energy process/amounts to fly from New York to Paris today as it did 75 years ago.
So disappointing for dupes like myself who just knew that Back to the Future part 2 (made in 1989) was correct with its flying cars and just overall cool futuristic world of 2015. LOL. While the world was standing in line to watch this movie or Star Wars or any other big blockbuster but impossible, unrealistic (because of energy) … were you overshoot lifers more disgusted or entertained by it all?
Although my journey starts a few years back it’s probably only the last 12 months or so where I start to really grasp and understand that there are limits to everything and how much rampant ignorance there is about it. And only in the last 4 months since I came here, where my grasp is getting super tight. I pretty much understood it from day one with M Dowd, but I’m talking about where I now spend loads of time thinking about it and mapping it out, etc. Mostly been disgust for me. George Carlin got to a point where it was mostly entertaining. That’s my goal.
I can’t even go to the movies nowadays. I’ll get too into thinking about the resources used to build the theatre complex and how much energy used for all the people and their cars and homes. (only half kidding)
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The Wall Street Journal What’s News podcast this morning did an in depth piece on why the energy transition is slowing down in both the US and Europe.
In summary, governments and utility companies are running out of money for subsidies and citizens cannot afford the full price.
https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/whats-news/who-pays-for-going-green-your-questions-answered/6D586507-A0B1-4A3B-B477-314E13030D3C
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This might be an insanely boring and common-sense question, but sometimes you guys correct me on things I am sure of and it knocks me down a peg or two (which I like and need).
My evil job with a big-name insurance company is basically glorified data entry. There is something called Name Insureds (NI’s) which is just the primary name of the company and any additional names. Been working here for years and still can’t tell you a good reason why you need more than one name for your business.
In general (but plenty of exceptions), the higher the $ales the more NI’s increase. The smaller companies (under a $billion in sales per year) have zero additional NI’s or maybe a couple. Medium-large companies start averaging in the low double digits. When you get to the huge money makers its very normal for them to have a hundred or more. I usually get a couple every month that are closer to a thousand. And I’ve seen one from a coworker with 12,000 NI’s. But we only see a fraction of the total policies. (and the worst part about it all – the more NI’s, the more work required from me 😒)
WTF could that be about other than my obvious generalization that its all about shady hiding of money?
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Some reasons from companies I have worked at:
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Oh you damn polymath you. Be quiet and stop trying to poke holes in my brilliant theories. 😊😊
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I’m definitely not a polymath haha. My brain just remembers useless facts. I’m promise I’m shit at lots of things LOL. For example, I can’t remember phone numbers, people’s names, or people’s faces 😦
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They forgot to mention people with defective denial genes worried about the collapse of civilization.
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Hideaway explains Australia’s brilliant peak oil strategy.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-11-2023-2/#comment-774922
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Soon, we will have to start rationing fossil fuels. Knowing the state of politics in the U.S., many Americans will be apoplectic.
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Hideaway answers the question everyone wants to know. When will SHTF?
History will show it was a really bad idea to deny reality with extreme debt.
Meanwhile, Iran today may have acknowledged having nuclear weapons.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-11-2023-2/#comment-774914
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Interesting to learn that B lives in Hungary.
Today he discusses technology of the future.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/musings-on-the-nature-of-technology
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Some interesting bits from Panopticon’s economic round-up today.
https://climateandeconomy.com/2024/05/13/13th-may-2024-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/
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Hello Hideaway,
Maybe you are right.
My brother likes to say we have absolute freedom, but simply have then to live with the consequences of our choices.
Sending you love 🙂
Don’t be afraid.
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And very much looking forward to your series of posts and book 🙂
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Nature has a backup plan in case Hideaway is wrong about oil depletion.
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“A certainty of physics” … that sounds scientific, not.
Co2-levels-historic.jpg (658×329) (rocketcdn.me)
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I often wonder what the cutoff date should be for worrying about the future. Do we worry about the next generation, up to 100 yrs, 1000yrs, millions of years. It is all so abstract yet we attach to it.
I have decided to stop worrying as there is nothing that I can do about it for the most part and enjoy my life as best I can. Getting back into music playing and writing is a big help. I recommend the same for everyone – whatever your passion maybe.
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300 million years before the sun changes it’s lumen output. Until then we should be more responsible LOL 🙂
As I understand from the internet (which could be wrong) a lot of ancient carbon is locked up in rocks and cannot get into the atmosphere again. So we could never get as hot as we have in the past when that carbon was floating around. We therefore can’t turn the planet into Venus or any other such nonsense that climate doomers fantasize about.
I still think climate change is awful. We are an ice age animal, slowly turning the planet tropical. We are an agricultural animal slowly ruining reliable weather patterns.
I worry about the rate of change, as that is a big factor in mass extinction. Climate change makes me worry for the animals and plants, especially those living in the cold extremes of the planet.
But the idea that we’ll all be wiped off the earth in a few decades by climate changes seems utterly ridiculous to me. Sometimes when you press people on this belief, they then admit they meant ‘end of modern civilization’ not NTHE (or around 90% die-off). Which makes me super grumpy because modern civilization is going to end soon anyway with or without climate change. 90% die-off is not the same as extinction, especially for an animal as overpopulated as ours. That’s just a return to the mean
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Don’t forget the hydrological cycles, large and small degraded by landuse choices the species is making.
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Hey Hideaway,
Just wondering where roughly in OZ you are?
I am in northern NSW area.
Keep up the good fight.
nikoB
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Hi NikoB, we are in rural southern Victoria about 200km (by car) from Melbourne to the South West. I know a few people in Northern NSW around the Lennox Head to Lismore area…
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I am close to that area.
If you are ever up this way would be good to have a coffee.
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Rob you will like this conversation (if you haven’t seen it yet). A smart engineer talking about our overshoot issues, biases and denial, etc.
The Failure of Experts – Peak Prosperity – YouTube
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Thanks, got a feeling I listened to it a couple weeks ago but can’t remember. I put it back on my phone and will listen to it tomorrow at the farm.
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I really did not enjoy this interview with Alan Booker.
If he is an engineer and was on my team I would have fired him like the dozens of other unimpressive engineers I terminated over the years.
All fluffy platitudes and no actionable substance.
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Fair enough. I agree it got worse as it went on and I had to give up watching about 3/4 way through.
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Yeh, it sounded promising at the beginning because he has some good insights but then it never translated into anything practical.
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Why do Australians and New Zealanders seem to be more overshoot aware than Americans, Brits or Canadians?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDjxnmZVcNM
What about the non-anglophone world?
France seems to be more overshoot aware than the U.S. as well. Almost 2 years ago, Emmanuel Macron spoke about the “end of abundance”. I can not imagine an American politician saying that (at least publicly).
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A lot of French people love ‘collapse’ as a theme in entertainment culture. Perhaps also the memory of living through the revolution and german occupation makes them appreciate how hard life would be if things collapsed again?
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It would not surprise me if every country was ahead of USA for overshoot or just important issues in general. Americans take the cake for idocracy. But then again, we are Empire Babies so what else would you expect.
So yes I wanna jump ship and go live at the bottom of the world, on an island. What do you say NZ and AU, you got any need over there for a useless, asshole american male who thrives at being a Taker? That’s the best sales pitch I’ve got. This offer will only be good for a limited time. You’d be crazy not to snatch that up. 😊
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I find it interesting that there a numerous people I know here in OZ that are collapse aware or believing but none of them are overshoot savvy. Practically none of them understand the implications of peak oil and that – as hideaway so patiently explains to others – everything rests on the shoulders of fossil fuels or to be more exact diesel.
I have tried explaining for 20 yrs and all I have managed is to narrow my friendship group significantly.
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I know a lot of “green” people through the farm I assist and none understand the implications of peak oil. I don’t talk much about it these days. The response is usually battery operated farm machinery 😦 . Ditto for population reduction.
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If you’ve got a thick skin, you will love it here. Come on over 🙂 we’ll have ya’!
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Oh, I definitely meet the requirement of a thick skin. Alright, I’m on my way. As soon I get off the plane in NZ, I’m just gonna tell em “Monk sent me”. That way they’ll roll out the red carpet and give me the VIP treatment. 😊
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Haha see ya soon! LOL
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US senator says Israel should drop nuclear bombs on Gaza.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jJpA11Z5N8
Wow, the U.S. and Israeli governments are both full of monsters.
Given the fact that Jews were subject to apartheid conditions in Europe for centuries, one would think that Israel would be a strong opponent of apartheid, but apparently they offered to sell nukes to apartheid South Africa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_ghettos_in_Europe
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Chris Martenson has gone full circle to the early days of Peak Prosperity. Today he said the people predicting a climate disaster have not convinced him we have a problem. In the same video he criticized people who spread lies because their income depends on it. You can’t make this shit up.
No link because I’m not going to help him make a living.
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I think his subscriber count must be dropping as well because he is doing a lot of deals and self promotion lately
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Big Pharma owns the government, media and the medical establishment now. It took them 30 or 40 years but now it is a done deal – so why would they worry about a few deaths? Money talks in Amerika. All you can do is avoid the medical establishment and try to stay healthy. (RFK Jr. would try to take this apart but they would probably kill him if he had a chance to get elected.)
AJ
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Dr. Tom Murphy today discusses spirituality, consciousness, and free will in the context of “What’s the point of overshoot awareness?”.
Too many words for my liking and misses the genetic denial that underpins most of his essay however the conclusion is good.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/05/whats-the-point/
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I do not understand.
This will raise prices. Which will be incorrectly interpreted as monetary inflation. Which will cause higher interest rates. Which will accelerate the collapse.
It will also reduce fossil energy demand by making products that use a lot too expensive.
What’s really going on here?
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Hi Rob,
Hope you’re going well and thoroughly enjoying your little patch of soil now covered in green. Soon you will be able to share/trade your bounty and I am very happy to vicariously partake in your harvest.
I am recalled to your post a while back “The Great Reset” and I think this is all part of the controlled collapse to bring on that totalitarian system which has been Empire’s way of managing through crisis. The middle class has to be completely destroyed by one means or another to achieve the most smooth transition and control. As if times couldn’t get more interesting this election year for the States. Meanwhile, China, Russia and friends are just waiting it out for the States and Europe to finally implode and then will continue to trade nicely (hopefully!) amongst themselves until it is clear that it has truly come to the end of fossil-fuelled modernity.
The climate irregularities are making their impact here in the subtropics on an individual level. I’ve been up here a month or so (having missed the stupendous aurora display in Tasmania, doh!) and I’ve seen the sun peek out a total of 3 days. We’ve probably had over 700mm of rain in that time and if not for the fact we have freely draining soil and on a slope, I think many of our trees would have been severely affected by the constant moisture by now. There’s no chance of starting new plantings on our small holding now as the soil structure would be completely compacted. The locals can’t remember a time when it was so consistently wet, as it has been here for the past 6 months. Being a major agricultural region, the rain and wet have affected planting and harvesting commercially and soon that will filter down to prices in shops. Regularly now at the main grocery stores there are signs apologising for the lack of or reduced quality of produce due to the weather around the country (decided wetter this year in many crop growing lowland regions) and prices also reflect this. A head of cauliflower or green cabbage can be $8.
My driveway into the property has been a mud slick for weeks and somehow I have managed to negotiate it the few times I need to go out. The solar power generator which has fried has been sitting in its crate waiting for courier pick-up for the past 3 weeks, but they refuse to attempt coming down the lane for fear of getting stuck.
Building works have stopped due to the weather as well as supply issues. Everything is coming undone in a million ways and here we are in a first world country on the brink of experiencing what it could be like not being one ever again. Interesting times indeed, and there is a world of difference between being aware and being prepared.
Namaste, friends.
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Hello Gaia,
You must be on the Eastern Tablelands with that much rain. Maybe east of Tarzali or near Topaz ?
We’re maybe 30 kms (direct line ) west of you. (4kms west of Tumoulin ), and have had 75mm in April, and 27mm this month. The property next to us planted potatoes about the start of April ,and they are doing exceedingly well. Enough initial soil moisture and subsequent rain to not need irrigating so far.
I’ve read your comments over the last few years, and since you are evidently interested in tropical fruits, and are a local now, I’ll give you some information that you might find interesting. I was born in 1955, near Mackay, Qld,. Grew up on a cane farm, and have been involved with tropical fruit all my life. (I wrote an article on tropical fruits for Earth Garden Magazine when I was about 16 or 17, plus a longer detailed article on Casimiroas for the Rare Fruit Council when I was importing Casimiroa cultivars about 1980.
I gave that info to give you some context . We came here in 1977,and grew and sold fruit for 20 years.,and was well versed in what tropical fruits were here then. A lot of the fruits that you mentioned were not in Australia then. There was a single Casimiroa seedling tree in NSW, that was it. No Jaboticabas, Black Sapote. A single Pouteria campechiana in the Cairns botanical gardens. No other Pouteria spp. No Amazon tree grapes, on and on ( If you want a list of the tropical fruit that were in Australia before then, I guess that Earth Garden article would about cover it.)
1977 into the mid 1980s was an amazing time in the Australian Tropical Fruit world. I am a friend of Alan Carle (started Botanical Ark at Whyanbeel north of Mossman ), who at that time was at Avondale Nsy near
Smithfield (no longer there ). He imported the majority of the various fruits available here now. I imported Casimiroa and Cherimoya cultivars from California and Spain, plus a few from N.Z.
Anyway, I’m not sure if that is of interest to you or not. Re. vegetables, perennials are the way to go IMO. I guess you have Gynura procumbens and bicolor growing ? Lebanese cress and Water celery do well here,and should be okay for you. Do you have Chaya (Cnidosculus sp ) growing ? It should do well for you. No pest problems with it here ( some forms of Aibika here are susceptible to a leaf-rolling caterpillar here ) We have C. chayamansa. (a form with no stinging hairs ) Used the same as C.aconitifolius, has a different leaf shape.
The Rufous Bettongs here (most of this block is native wet sclerophyll forest) eat any sweet potatoes, so they either have to be fenced off, or grown in large pots ( We use 40cm pots, sequentially planted through the year)
I remember that you are interested in Bamboos. We have about 30 species, growing for about 40 years. One that flowered not long ago ,that we have seedlings of, is Otatea acuminata var. aztecorum. It is native to a drier climate than yours, but would be worth trying, as it is a very useful bamboo. In Australia, it is grown mainly for the outstanding ornamental qualities. Not many references mention that the culms are solid for over two thirds of their height. Very strong, and an excellent bamboo for tool handles and similar uses. and I haven’t tried it, but it could probably be bent to shape with applied heat, as some Calamus palm spp. are. Not susceptible to borers. I have a section that has been kept dry inside for over 20 years,and still in perfect condition.
Anyway, this comment is too long. If you want a plant of the Otatea, or Chaya cutting (very easy grower ),or the other vegetables (We have Molokai purple, Okinawan Purple, Hawaiian sunrise sweet potatoes and a Japanese one which we haven’t harvested yet ), let me know, and I’ll give them to you. We have stalls E16 and E17 at Yungaburra markets. We’ve been going there for 34 years now. Sell mainly shadehouse ornamental plants there now. Sold fruit trees as well, but stopped those a year or more ago. Have a Pouteria obovata (Lucmo) plant left if you want it. (Correctly named, I got the seeds from a woman in Ecuador )
David Higham.
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Hello David,
What a cornucopia of delights and possibilities you’ve shared so kindly and generously! I am so touched by your reaching out and so eager to learn from your experience, thank you from the bottom of my heart for introducing yourself and I feel even more grateful and awed that we’ve been able to meet through Rob’s site. I am in Ravenshoe, in the subdivision of Bellview off Tully Falls Rd, definitely the wettest side of the district as it can be sunny in Millstream only 10 km away but pouring rain here. So we are most definitely neighbours, how lucky I am to have un-denial compatriots as neighbours both here in Far North QLD and Tasmania!
I now know who to thank for bringing into this region so many of the bountiful fruits and plants that thrive in the sub and tropics. I am constantly learning and wanting so much to grow in knowledge, skill and spirit along with the many trees we have planted, and here appears before me one who has prepared the path with so much heart and labour, thank you and all your contemporaries with this vision. The saying that when the student is ready the teacher appears and I feel so strongly that this is a true statement in this instance and I am just so overjoyed and humbled.
There’s so much to connect with that I cannot wait to meet you at the next Yungaburra market (the 25th this month, if I have it correct?) it will definitely be the highlight of the week, rain or shine!
Have a lovely day and so look forward to meeting you soon. Perhaps we have already met at a prior market (I did get a quite a few plants initially from them). Thank you to Rob for bringing us together here on this page.
All the best to you and your family.
Namaste.
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Hello Gaia,
I check out several websites ,mainly in the morning, for links and sometimes read some comments, which is how I initially noticed your enthusiasm for fruits and Bamboos. I don’t know if I have much to teach you, I didn’t mean that, as I noticed that you knew a lot about the various fruits and bamboos already. Plants like the Otatea and the others I mentioned are on the “must grow” list, I think, in this climate ,(for those who are interested in bamboo and perennial vegetables )which is why I mentioned them .
Yes, unless it is very wet or something unusual happens, we’ll be at Y’burra on the 25th. Just to confirm, which of the plants that I mentioned would you like cuttings or plants of ?
The Chaya plant has a bit of a story,. I initially read about it in a book published by the National Academy of Sciences (U.S. organization) around 1978 ,titled “Underexploited tropical plants with promising Economic Value” . You can find plenty of information about it on the internet now Anyway.it wasn’t in Australia then. It was always in the back of my mind to keep a look out for it.I don’t know if you have it. It isn’t very widely grown or known here yet.
So about two years ago I was checking out some plants on eBay, and there was a single listing for Chaya cutting. I bought it, and when it arrived I immediately realised that it was an Aibika cutting.
You probably know Aibika. (Abelmoschus sp.) One reference here states that there are 70 known cultivars in New Guinea. It has a large variation of leaf forms, from dinner-plate sized almost circular leaves, to deeply incised long lobed leaves. Despite the variation, the basic morphology of the cutting made me pretty sure that it would be an Abika. So I grew it, and it was.
So I contacted the bloke, who said that I was wrong, it was Chaya. About a year later, the bloke was still selling “Chaya” cuttings, and he also had a listing for what he called “Male Chaya”. (Chaya isn’t dioecious, and the “Male Chaya” name is just his invention, as there is no mention anywhere else about a “Male Chaya “. ) Anyway, he had a photo of the leaf, so I bought that one as well. It has flowered, and it is Cnidoscolus chayamansa, according to a site I found which gave detailed information about the differences between C, chayamansa and C. aconitifolius.
I gave all of that story, so that you can see that there will be misnamed Chaya around Australia. I don’t know how many of the Aibika cultivar cuttings, that he was/is selling as” Chaya ” were sold,
I haven’t checked lately, so I don’t know if he is still selling the misnamed Chaya, or if he still sells the Chaya as “Male Chaya ” I might check later on.
Sorry to take up space on this site, Rob.
My email is davidjoanna122@gmail.com , Gaia,if you could send a note advising which cuttings you want, or don’t want, and we’ll take them to Y’burra. Or you could advise here, if you want, but Rob no doubt would prefer no more space taken up here. Thanks, and good luck. Sorry it has been such a wet year for you to give you a bad start. I hope the coming months and next year are better for you.
David Higham
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I’m enjoying the conversation David, feel free to continue. The annual fee I pay for this blog has no limit on comments. 🙂
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Hi Rob,
That’s a relief as I have taken up more than my share of space here on assorted (but hopefully not sordid) topics. I would like to contribute to the annual fee if you would accept it. Thank you for absorbing the cost all these years. It is part of your service to greater humanity, whether they know it or not.
I am glad you are getting something out of David’s and my obvious enthusiasm for edible subtropical plants, alas, none of the species that have been mentioned will survive in your climate zone (until the global warming really takes off), even in the tunnel house. So you will have to live vicariously through our descriptions which I am delighted to share more about.
We have been discussing some varieties of leafy greens that have been staples for many cultures, most can be likened to “spinach” roughly in taste but I don’t think they have the oxalate issue. However, some species (and I believe Chaya is one but that one is new to me thank you to David) definitely need to be cooked to destroy toxic compounds. It is interesting that the texture of many subtropical greens has a mucilaginous quality (like okra) which for many people is either you like it or don’t.
The fruit trees David have mentioned are truly exotic to the Northern hemisphere, you may not even have heard of custard apples and black and white sapotes (which just means soft fruit in Spanish) and canistel. It’s not so challenging to describe their looks (the custard apple is a bumpy irregular shaped fruit about the size of a fist and black and white sapote are usually smooth and round, one turns dark brown, inside and out, when ripe and the other either turns yellowish or stays green and the pulp is light coloured, canistel is smooth pointed oval shaped and bright yellow when ripe and but it is just so hard to describe their taste, it’s like trying to tell someone who never ate a strawberry what it’s like, and in the fruit world there’s just so much variety that there’s no equivalent to “it tastes like chicken”! Many tropical fruits have a texture that is smooth and creamy and often more sweet than temperate fruits, but of course there’s a wide range.
I hope that whets the appetite a bit and I am eager to hear how your and everyone else’s gardens are growing. There’s a wealth of experience here between everyone and all climate zones and it is just a joy and privilege to have the chance to share and learn together.
Namaste, everyone.
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Hello David,
Thank you so much for your thoughtful reply; I am so interested in everything you have to share both informationally and plant material. I do have Aibeka but it’s the finely dissected variety that seems slightly less vulnerable to whatever likes to eat it, I have tried and prefer the broader leaf one but apparently so do the chewing insects so that’s died off. Chaya is completely new to me and I thank you for introducing this prolific source of greens. I have the bicolour gynura which I know as Okinawa spinach, and also Brazilian spinach, both which have happily colonised several areas. My main green at the moment is sweet potato leaves, the shoots are especially tender and stir-fry well. All of these greens are seemingly loving the wet (and of course the bamboo are really soaking it up and soared skyward), so I really shouldn’t complain, it’s just me that thinks I will be growing aerial roots soon if the rain doesn’t let up!
I would love to try planting here in Ravenshoe any fruit cultivar you think would be possible, we can get frosts but not likely this season if it remains wet. I love canistel (I’ve got a few trees going and one has fruited for about 2 years now) so I am very happy to try the Lucuma. I am intrigued that your Otatea bamboo has flowered and you have new plants from their seed, all of my bamboo are clones and I am hoping that they will not flower for some time yet!
It would be fabulous for you and Joanna to come visit our place some time, everyone here is welcome of course (remember we have an un-denial members commune plan, isn’t that right?) but how lucky for us to be actually neighbours out of all the places on earth! Here I apologise to Perran if you’re reading this for not getting myself organised enough to meet you in the Huon Valley, it’s been a whirlwind year trying to get my mother’s house ready for sale and still no action on that yet.
See you on the 25th, then. My good friends and neighbours here in Bellview are Salvador and Deb who sell the Indian curries at the markets, have you tried them? Don’t know where their stall is in relation to yours but I’ll find you both! Thank you again.
Namaste.
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Okay. You can read online about the Gynura procumbens, also called Longevity Spinach or Sambung Spinach. It should do excellently for you, I think. More vigorous than G. bicolor for us, very productive, no pest problems here for it. It can be grown to form a ground cover, or to clamber up a trellis, or in an elevated 40cm pot and saucer, where it will grow out and trail down with the growing tips used raw (or cooked ), to keep it more compact with multiple growing points.
The Lebanese cress grows in shallow water, or the method that we use is a 25 or 30 litre tub,with some holes drilled about 12 or 15 cms above the base. We grow the water celery the same way. Both problem free here, except the water celery attracts some grasshoppers in summer.
Do you have Achacha ( a Bolivian Garcinia sp. ) planted ? It should do well. I’m looking out the window at a couple of 3metre tall trees here now, covered in new growth.
The Bolivian name is Achachairu. When the first commercial planting went in near the Burdekin, the people there decided that the Bolivian name was too long, and marketed the fruit by the abbreviated name , and that seems to have become the accepted name here now.
I have a plant of it left if you don’t have it growing.
Re the bamboos., yes we have had a few flower in the last few years. Do you have Schizostachyum jaculans growing, or do you want a plant of it ? I’d plant it if you have the space and inclination. Schizostachyum genus all have thin walled culms, which can be useful if you need the thin-walled culm. (Can be split easily to form a bamboo screen , for example.) Very close clumping, maximum culm diameter is about 3 cms. Very long (over a metre )
internodes. It is also used for blowpipes.
D.H.
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No, we haven’t tried the curries. We’ll have a look for them.
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Yes, the bamboos would be loving it. The Otatea isn’t your typical bamboo, though. It will be interesting to see if it can adapt to your climate. Otatea is at the extreme end of the “long -dry-season, low rainfall adapted ” spectrum of bamboos. There is a photo on page 63 of “American Bamboos” showing Otatea acuminata growing in its natural habitat in the Mexican Highlands, on the edges of a desert ,growing next to various cacti. I’m pretty sure that that would be Otatea acuminata acuminata, which is slightly smaller and more gracile than O.ac.aztecorum, which grows in regions which are not quite so extreme That is reflected in their performance here. We had a beautiful clump of O.ac. acuminata growing, but at end of one very wet “wet season”, most of it died. The O. ac. aztecorum got through it, and continued to do well.
I remember that you are interested in mangos. Mangos are my main fruit interest. We have about seventy five cultivars growing. You might find that most mangos won’t do well for you there. . We have a very disease resistant cultivar that originates in Kalimantan ,which might possibly adapt to your high rainfall,mid-altitude climate. Len Muller, an architect who was also very interested in mangos and bamboos, imported it as possibly being adapted to his property at Woopen Creek, which is a high-rainfall area near Innisfail. It did fruit for him there ,but that was low-altitude.. It sets up to eight or so fruit per panicle, so there are clusters of fruit over the tree when it fruits. The fruit are small and fibrous, end the tree here only fruits well every two or three years. It does have a pleasant pineapple-like flavour. It fruited this year, so there probably won’t be fruit next year. There are better mangos here when it fruits, so we don’t eat many, but do use some for chutney. I keep it mainly to preserve cultivars valuable for very wet climates. It is polyembryonic, so I can save seed or fruit when it fruits next, if you’d like to try it. Or if you graft, you can have some wood if you want.
We have a good form of Kuini, (Mangifera odorata,) which does well here, and I think it would fruit for you, as Kuini is more disease resistant than any M. indica. It also fruits well only every two or three years. Strong , intense flavour, (too rich for some ). Makes great chutney,imo.. Never a mark on the fruit,very disease resistant. It is polyembryonic as well, A very pretty tree when it flowers, with large red-coloured panicles.
D.H.
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The uses of Otatea in Mexico might be of interest. From “American Bamboos”,p.253 :
“Otateas are used locally for oxen poles, broomsticks, canes, furniture, basketry, crop supports, fireworks supports, and especially for house rafters. “
D.H.
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Hi Gaia,
I’m very sorry to here about your rain problems. I hope things improve for you soon.
My garden is coming to life. Very exciting! A farmer friend had some extra cherry tomato and chard starts so I got those planted last week. Some of my bok choy bolted but I’m hoping the balance matures normally.
Weather where I live is not crazy yet but the provinces next to me already have wildfires big enough to cause evacuation of whole towns.
My project this week is to rebuild my 30 year old picnic table with new wood to replace the rotten wood.
Unlike you I’m still unsure if our leaders have a plan. To my eyes they are not so bright monkeys that lack integrity and make decisions with emotions and no awareness of the risks or implications.
I’m also unsure if the financial risks in US/Europe are worse than China. I’m thinking that both have an unrecoverable interdependent debt/degrowth problem and will go down together. Russia may do somewhat better.
Stay well.
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Scheerpost is recycling things, I guess. This is a John Mearsheimer interview from two months ago. But I’m sharing it because of a comment from yesterday that I think is worth reading. It seemed to long to post here, so click the link and it should be the first comment by Randall Doyle (who is a friend of John’s).
Teaser: “Most foreign policy books, and articles, written by American scholars, are regurgitated garbage. Thus, American scholarship, for the most part, is one giant echo chamber. This is why — since the end of WWII in mid-1945 — the US military has experienced very little success on the battlefield. The same people, possessing the same thinking, taught at the same schools, have dominated our foreign policy beliefs and military operations for over 75 years! And, we wonder why we keep failing.”
‘Insanity’— John Mearsheimer on the US role in Gaza and Ukraine – ScheerPost
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When I was young, Gwynne Dyer was a journalist with integrity I respected that spoke truth about war.
h/t xraymike79
https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-unprecedented-warming-could-be-ocean-feedback
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Hey Rob, I noticed your shout-out to xraymike. Does he still write about collapse? Found him from Dowd a couple years ago and I was a fan of his work. Have not seen his name in a while.
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I follow him on Twitter:
He seems to write about one essay a year these days:
Here is some of his older work that I posted:
https://un-denial.com/?s=xraymike79%3A
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Thanks Rob. I just read the sep2023 one. He still has the gift, no doubt. (for the fans of “the sooner the better”, you’ll dig it)
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Complex life has existed during times that were hotter than it is now. How did animals and plants survive?
My main guess is polar amplification. The change in temperature during climatic changes are greater in polar and mid-latitude regions than in tropical regions. The tropics may have only been a little bit hotter, while mid-latitude and polar regions were a lot warmer. Also since the changes were slower than the changes happening now, plants and animals had more time to adapt.
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I couldn’t sleep last night so I listened to this interview by Tucker Carlson of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s brother who opposes most of his brother’s policies, refused to be transfected with mRNA, and is currently travelling the US in a bus promoting RFK Jr.. 🙂
Very interesting to get a wise, reasonably aware, insider’s view of family evil.
He thinks our leaders are swept up by group emotions and are controlled by big corporate money.
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His advice for his brother “say sorry” LOL, how Canadian
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New movie out that like Quest for Fire discussed above has no spoken English but focuses on a sasquatch family rather than prehistoric man.
Haven’t watched it yet but have it queued and have a hunch it will be enjoyable for overshoot aware people. The reviews suggest you will love it or hate it.
Available for download at the usual places.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt30180830/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/sasquatch_sunset
https://www.allmovie.com/movie/sasquatch-sunset-vm14128884186/review
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Its $15 on amazon right now, so I will wait till its cheaper. It does look good. I’m just worried about it having too much of today’s juvenile humor and sexual innuendos. We’ll see. The trailer made me laugh out loud for sure though. 😊
And sorry to change subjects, but I recently shared something with Charles and he reminded me that English is not his primary language. My ignorant ass sometimes forgets that the rest of the world does not have English as their primary language. So impressive how you guys are bilingual. If Charles sent me something in French, I would have zero chance of understanding it.
I’ll bet that’s another American thing. Most of the world being fluent in multiple languages, but not us Empire Babies.
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There’s a good meme about it:
You speak english, because it’s the only language You know,
I speak english, because it’s the only language You know.
We’re not the same!
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Haha. I love it! Thanks.
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Karl Denninger says we’ve got at most 2 years before the US financial system has a come-to-Jesus moment unless congress dramatically cuts healthcare expenditures. He also reconfirms my belief that the Fed does not set interest rates, rather it follows interest rates set by the market.
https://retirementlifestyleadvocates.com/podcast/episode/2024-05-12-retirement-lifestyle-advocates-radio-w-karl-denninger
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https://www.vox.com/24152402/mexico-city-day-zero-water-resource-management-solutions
North America’s biggest city is running out of water.
Another symptom of overshoot.
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Man, here I am trying to find a movie so that I can be entertained tonight. Then I come across this great essay from Indi. There is an intense 4-minute guerilla warfare video worth checking out. Reminds he how lucky I am to have been born when and where I was… but also reminds me that plenty of people out there are actually living life with a purpose.
Hamas In Action (Day 221) — indi.ca
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Aren’t indi (https://indi.ca/) and rintrah (https://www.rintrah.nl/) kind of the anti-thesis of each other?
Also, quite funnily, the aesthetic of their respective sites is opposite of their skin colour.
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😊
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Nate Hagen’s interview today was good with a lively intelligent aware debate on the pros and cons of nuclear energy.
I’ve never heard of fellow Canadian Chris Keefer but I was impressed and will start following him.
Keefer believes civilization will be very unpleasant without abundant energy/technology and nuclear is the only option that might keep things going.
Hagens believes nuclear is too dangerous and unaffordable given our imminent great simplification.
I believe they are both right which is why the only good path is population reduction which neither of them mentioned.
P.S. Keefer is a an MD and touched on the covid insanity from the perspective of an intelligent doctor. He was very worried in the early days due to the NYC freezer trucks etc. (which he appears unaware were probably faked to gin up panic) and therefore draconian measures were warranted in the early days, however it quickly became clear there was no need for panic and the government continued with aggressive measures much too long.
Hagens again remained silent on covid. 😠
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Not enough push back from Nate on the absolute necessity of fossil fuel to run even rudimentary modernity. Electricity from nuclear does not even come close to what is needed to run this society. Electricity may make arc furnaces but it can’t make cement, fertilizer, transport (trains, planes, automobiles, farm equipment). I seriously doubt that anyone in the nuclear industry has done a true life cycle analysis of all the fossil fuel needed to make a nuclear plant (maybe Simon?) from mining the minerals for concrete, steel, transport, etc., and then run it and decommission it. Keefer’s assertion that nuke energy is low cost seems preposterous to me. IMHO.
My second big gripe was with how cavalierly they dealt with the nuclear waste and long term pollution if (Nate mentioned an EMP and Keefer just said that nuke plants have been hardened for it) civilization collapses and all the nuke plants go Fukushima (with no one cleaning them up). There would be vast zones around those plants where no animals could live for eons is my guess.
Disappointing.
AJ
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I agree AJ. It was disappointing about the waste, especially with neither mentioning the spent fuel ponds at every NPP, and the dangers if those are not kept cool. Any supposed expert on nuclear would not mention them very deliberately in discussing power outages.
Nuclear is very expensive energy because of it’s complexity, that seems to be overlooked be every nuclear proponent. Without complexity they are not possible, and discussing that we had nuclear with the complexity of the 60’s, so it’s not that complex, totally misses the point about complexity that is maintained by huge volumes of fossil fuel energy, and in the 60’s fossil fuel energy was cheap and growing rapidly in use.
Complexity is about interactions within a system, not just that we have gone from slide rules to computers. Going back to slide rules to build nuclear power plants misses the point that it is people that need to learn how to use the slide rule. The complexity is having the excess energy to run a system where a huge percentage of the population can go on to higher education to learn the engineering concepts and be weeded out from those that can’t understand the topics.
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If you’d like to better understand the pros and cons of gold as a SHTF prep this is one of the best discussions I’ve seen.
George Gammon explains what he learned from his experiment traveling across a hyperinflating country with nothing but precious metals and bitcoin.
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I agree with George’s proposition. Gold is only valuable if someone will accept it. In a complete collapse of the economic system only things like food, weapons (and ammo), some luxury items (cigarettes and liquor), gas/diesel, maybe farm implements have value. Gold is only good once some type of limited civilization exists where there are agricultural surpluses that “money” (i.e. gold, silver) might be used as a medium of exchange. Gold might be good if their is a partial collapse of the banking/fiat currency system, it all depends on how bad the situation is.
AJ
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Ya, my takeaway was that an earlier preptip on un-Denial about keeping cash under the mattress is the way to go. My vision of near future involves the complete crashing of the bank systems and George helped me to see why cash would probably still be the preferred method.
Best part of the interview was watching the host squirming around in his chair regarding cash being king. He was trying so hard to get his guest to cave in and admit there might be a possible alternative where gold would be better to barter with than dollar bills. Obviously Nate owns a ton of gold.
However, towards the end George was talking about how he is disciplined with always setting aside 10% of his income for buying gold. So maybe the best idea is to have a little bit of everything just in case.
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Tim Morgan today instead of rehashing the same stuff has some interesting new thoughts about:
What do our leaders know?
What are they trying to do?
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Central banks are holding a wolf by the ears, whether they know it or not. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/have_the_wolf_by_the_ear
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Just saw a commerical for the upcoming Tony Awards. I despise award shows with their celebrities and money and phoniness. Thought we should have our own here at un-Denial. So without further ado. Drumroll please:
Feel free to add any awards that I missed.
Stormy Weather (youtube.com)
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I nominate:
Gaia for “most improved writer” having learned the value of a paragraph.
Hideaway for “perseverance through adversity” for his relentless attempt to educate the numbskulls in denial at POB.
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LOL. I second that. And maybe we can give an award to Charles for introducing us to the sarcasm emoji. 😊
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Nice list and I’m with you on the awards thing. My daughter is telling me that lots of youth are blocking social media accounts of celebrities and “influencers” who attended the recent Met Gala pointless display of privilege and wealth.
By the way your previous list had me as spiritual. My wife nearly choked on her coffee when I told her that 😀. Although we do have a saying that we find “God” in the garden I’m definitely a gardener having spent the last 3 years since we settled on this property establishing a food forest and vegetable gardens, and regenerating native forest.
Oh and you’d be most welcome here in NZ. Your self deprecating humour would fit in well. Problem is we’re probably about 3 million too many people already in the face of declining cheap fossil energy. 😉
Keep up the great comments.
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Thanks CampbellS. I love what your daughter is talking about. Hopefully that trend continues and grows stronger.
LOL about your wife almost choking on her coffee. Ya, you were another one I had to take a wild guess with. But it does not surprise me at all that I should have put you in the gardener category. All of you crazy NZ and AU people sound like you spend all day in the garden. 😊
And thanks for the welcoming to your country. I could see me, you, Monk, and the others hanging out and working in someone’s garden and shooting the shit all day. That would be some good times!
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We have plenty of spare room for crazy Americans who like gardening and shooting shit. You’d be most welcome.
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Omg paqnation this is hilarious! I do like the like button a lot. Probably because I’m social media addicted
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LOL, I knew you would find it funny. The timing of you taking a break from this site was incredible though. It hit me last night that you had not made a comment or liked something since I posted it. So then my overanalyzing ass wrote an apology letter to you. Thank god I did not post it. 😊
I am the king of fretting over waste of time shit. 😊
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Maybe, just maybe, a little light in the darkness.
Let’s all pray for justice.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/nih-in-the-hotseat
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Things are picking up steam now…
https://x.com/COVIDSelect/status/1790762368898654308
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Let’s hope. A bunch of people need to go to prison for life for killing about 17 million people to date and counting. That’s 3x the holocaust!
Notice that this only targets 1 of the 4 crimes committed:
1) illegal and unethical gain of function research resulting in the release of a virus
Three more groups need to be prosecuted:
2) blocking safe and effective prophylactics and treatments
3) coercing the injection of an inadequatley tested gene therapy transfection technolgy, that did not prevent transmission or sickness, without full disclosure of the risks
4) not collecting, analyzing, and reporting the data necessary to protect public health
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EcoHealth Alliance’s goose is cooked – nobody will want to touch them now…
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MORT in action?
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/16/1251769080/florida-desantis-climate-change-law
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signs a bill that strikes climate change from state law
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It’s possible this is not MORT in action.
Florida does not have policies to force citizens to consume less and to have fewer children which means the climate change policies they do have won’t help and therefore cancelling them can be interpreted as a sign of awareness, unless of course they are doing so because they believe climate change (and especially sea level rise for Florida) are not serious threats and are not caused by humans burning carbon.
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To be honest, I think that the decision to remove climate change from state law is mostly symbolic. I also think that they are doing it for the latter reason. But imagine if Ron Desantis actually told his constituents “If you want to stop sea level rise, you are going to have to change your lifestyle, and have only one kid”.
I suspect that there are politicians who know this, but don’t have the guts to say it publicly. If they were to tell the truth about this issue, they would get voted out of office, so they tell their constituents one of two comforting lies. Either they deny/downplay the situation (GOP) or they tell their constituents that technology will allow them to have their planet and eat it too (Democrats).
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Preptip: I’m always on the lookout for food that keeps many years without refrigeration, is healthy, tastes good, and is inexpensive.
Dehydrated hashbrown potatoes is an option you may not have considered.
I’ve recently done some tests that confirm it keeps at least 3 years past the best-buy date, and given zero signs of degradation, I’m expecting it will be good for 10+ years.
One carton costs me CDN$1.25 and provides 3 normal or 2 big servings. The cost of fresh potatoes here has gone up a lot and I think these dehydrated potatoes are less expensive per serving.
To cook you simply soak in hot water for 10 minutes, drain, and fry in some fat until browned.
They tastes as good as my scratch made hashbrowns using fresh potatoes.
There is one possible negative. Potatoes are one of the “dirty dozen” crops that are best to buy organic because of the chemicals used to grow them. These hashbrown are not organic. Given that I’m 65 it’s likely something else will kill me first so I’ve made a decision to stock up.
Amazon pricing seems crazy high so look for them in a local big box discount store and expect to see annual 25% off sales.
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Nice tip. And I think its fellow Canadian Jon’s favorite food (from Lost Lakes – outdoor yt channel). Always see him frying these up.
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Hideaway today on the denial of LESS.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-11-2023-2/#comment-775104
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I’ve been trying to understand why the US supports genocide.
It does not make sense, and it exceeds even the US government’s normally low morality and integrity.
Tonight I watched the documentary “Praying for Armageddon” that explains US Christian evangelicals have a lot of political power and they believe they will be transported to heaven and the evil on earth will be destroyed when Jesus returns, and this process can be accelerated by helping Israel rid the holy land of Palestinians.
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Must watch. I had no idea. I thought it was mostly about money. It’s mostly about which god will dominate.
MORT’s denial of death (aka god) is causing the genocide.
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Hi Rob,
Thanks for highlighting this very worthwhile doco, seriously crazy stuff. I happened to watch it a couple weeks ago and boy was it freaky. Even though I had a Christian upbringing (but not evangelical) so I understood the general premise, to see the Armageddon agenda followed through so blindly by so many was a shock nonetheless. I kept saying “Oh my god” aloud throughout both episodes, not because of any residual faith but in total disbelief at the state of how tribally polarised the country of my birth seems to be now.
It really saddens and sickens me that we as a species haven’t seemed to learn as a whole how to get along even after so many opportunities to do so, in large part because we can so easily consider other humans as another species, and a lower form at that, especially if they’re not in our tribe and are competing for resources. Then might makes right and all the better if our god gives us the mandate and power to conquer. What good have all our technological advancements accomplished if we can’t overcome this?
I could go on but that would mean more paragraphs and as you know, I’m still a grasshopper in learning how to manage that.
Namaste.
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Hi Gaia. I did not see your comment yet when I sent mine. As always, you said it better than me. And ya, what a wild ride that was.
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Well said Gaia. I don’t know the bible very well but I thought the jews killed Jesus. You’d expect the evangelicals to support the Palestinians. Nothing makes sense when beliefs are not grounded in science.
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HOLY SHIT!!! That was wild. I gotta take a shower because of how gross I feel. My filthiest times are when I am studying history about the white devil puritans, manifest destiny and american colonization. But that stuff seems tame to how batshit crazy this was. Same old story though.
There was a domino effect of thoughts while watching. No need in trying to get people overshoot aware. No soft collapse coming. A clearer sense that these are the consequences for any species who breaks through those sacred energy constraints. Too many people “off the farm” with too much goddam free time.
There is zero chance of this insane group of apes making it much further in the history books. Which is a good thing overall that I always preach, but somehow I was still shocked by these films. I think its time to party like it’s 1999 and have your exit kit handy because it’s gonna be a vicious and brutal fall off the cliff.
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Hey there brother Chris,
Amen to all that; I think you said it pretty well yourself. I see you’re up pretty late there (or early?) It’s always good to “see” you here and I only wish I had a bit more free time to respond to your vivid comments but often they do give me a boost for the day (and a laugh!)
Lately I have been even more of a champion of the Stoic mindset, it’s ever only our inner world that we can control and change even as all else crashes and burns around us. I appreciate all of Marcus Aurelius’ pearls of wisdom but the one that has stood out for me the most in these “end-time” days is
Think of yourself as dead. You have lived your life. Now, take what’s left and live it properly.
That makes every day I wake up a bonus and because I have already “died” it seems even clearer that what I can do that day is a gift, both to give and receive. There’s always room for more kindness and compassion, and that may even lead to the holy grail of forgiveness, if we can truly let go.
Go well and be peace, everyone. That’s what I mean by Namaste.
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Can you recommend one book on stoicism for those wishing to learn more?
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Dear Rob,
I hope you are well.
A book recommendation:
Marcus Aurelius – Meditations.
Zeno of Citium, the founder of stoicism learnt and developed the stoic philosophy from the cynics.
– Founder of cynicism, Diogenes of Sinope was even respected by Alexander the Great.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Good morning to you, ABC,
Hope you and your family are well. Thank you for your comment and recommendation of Meditations, I did not see your comment until mine was uploaded and you know what they say about minds thinking alike! The great mind here of course is Marcus Aurelius.
Always nice to see you here and still I am hoping that one day we shall all see one another with our own eyes, just to add the icing on the cake and cherry on top of this most excellent fellowship here.
Namaste.
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Hello friends,
So happy to help with the side trip to Stoicism–you can’t go wrong with the actual personal journal of Marcus Aurelius, his Meditations. Also, Letters from a Stoic of Seneca to have another taste first hand. There are many excellent webpages for other introductions, and one that I have thoroughly appreciated was introduced by our friend AJ a little while back, here’s the link to Gurwinder Bhogal’s blog The Prism which may also interest you generally (many thanks, AJ, it’s a gem when you need a pick-up). His longer essay on Stoicism is a great primer.
https://www.gurwinder.blog/p/stoicism-the-ancient-remedy-to-the
As for the Christians, Jews, and Muslim triad, now that’s a sordid tale indeed and proves more our need for being part of a tribe for survival than actually cultivating any higher minded religious ideal. After all, all three religions are supposed to worship the same god, but their interpretations and tribal stories over millennia have drawn an endless bloodbath amongst the three and throughout the wider world that Christianity, the erstwhile dominant sect, has colonised. It’s definitely not about loving one another as brother and sister!
Enough of that for the moment, time to get back to the inner calm and wisdom however one can!
Hope all are travelling well and enjoying this extra bonus day of life!
Namaste.
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Thanks for the info. And thanks AJ for showing Gurwinder to Gaia. That link was a great intro for me into stoicism.
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Thank you Gaia and ABC.
I checked my library and I have Meditations. I skimmed it and there are a lot of words that look like poetry so don’t know if I’ll succeed at reading it but have added it to my read first queue.
Gurwinder Bhogal’s essay looks easier to digest so I think I’ll start there.
Thanks again.
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Thanks Gaia. Ya, I’m a night owl. Great quote by Marcus. And I’m with Rob, any book about stoicism you can recommend that helps me to have your healthy attitude would be greatly appreciated.
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Made my mom watch this. Did not plan on watching it with her, but I got sucked in again. She was blown away by it. She despises my anti-white skin stuff. To the point where I’m not allowed to even bring it up. But by the end of the film, she was much more willing to listen to my crazy ass. Also, the thing about “these are the consequences of too many off the farm with too much free time”… she was actually understanding this and asking me good questions about it.
I know I’m guilty of overreacting on this site and even exaggerating sometimes. But I don’t think I have ever uttered the words “must watch” in any of my comments. Rob was dead right on this film though. It’s one of those where you will still be thinking about it long after you watched it.
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Man this is so creepy. I liked the Rabbi for Peace guy, he seemed sensible. Jews have a similar end time thingy. That’s why some ultra conservative Jews do not support the state of Israel, because it signals the end times. Out of interest I googled if Islam has something similar. Yes!; they have the same apocalyptic judgement day coming as well. So, at least they’re all working together towards the same common goal. Top effort there Yahweh.
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Hideaway on another unpleasant reality with renewables…
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may-11-2023-2/#comment-775110
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Alice Friedemann today with an interesting update on self-driving cars.
https://energyskeptic.com/2024/self-driving-cars-in-san-francisco-cause-accidents-congestion-and-more/
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I don’t understand the fascination with self-driving autos, it’s as if this is some sort of holy grail for some people/business. They dont solve the energy problem, dont solve traffic problem, don’t make collisions a thing of the past.
Is it just something to point to as “progress” ? Or an employment program for engineers and programmers?
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Good points. It is very odd.
I’d add that I enjoy driving. Why would I want a computer to do it for me?
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Even though I don’t think self driving cars will ever become wide spread. I think that public transit is a much better option.
What if you didn’t get enough sleep the previous night and still feel a bit drowsy, and you live in an area that has little or no public transit? (Like I said above, this exactly is why we need good public transit)
https://www.sleepfoundation.org/drowsy-driving
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Rintrah today with a very complicated update on the implications of recent covid mutations.
My take away: There might be a scientific explanation for why people are becoming more crazy and less intelligent.
P.S. Rintrah’s track record for predicting what will happen has been pretty good IIRC.
https://www.rintrah.nl/oops-there-goes-the-n-terminal-domain/
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Just a reminder that Rintrah’s threat is orthogonal to, and in addition to, the clotting threat explained by Dr. Joe Lee’s String Theory, and Dr. Bret Weinstein et. al.’s “permanent heart cell damage caused by immune system attacking non-self” threat, and the DNA contamination transfection threat.
Meanwhile, no one responsible has been prosecuted for murder including my prime minister and health minister.
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Yes. To me.
They are performing a very usefull task for the system (yet ugly from the part of the “victims”). That of correction.
Nobody wants degrowth, so the parasite/predators have to do it.
They will be prosecuted (or worse) once their job is completely done. (once it’s too late to avert anything)
And no, I am not implying this is a voluntary action from some group/government. I think it’s the dynamic of the whole.
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Hi Charles. Not sure I understand you. Are you saying that all this man-made virus/vaccination stuff is about population reduction because of overshoot. And that the parasite/predators are the groups/govt involved with implementing? If yes, then I am with you and agree so far. But the last line, its not voluntary by them and its the dynamic of the whole? I just lost you. What’s that mean?
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I don’t think any group has much power. Control is quite illusory. One misstep and you lose it all.
I don’t believe virus and vaccines were implemented to reduce population in prevention of overshoot. This is too noble and too complex.
I don’t view humanity (only) through the dichotomic lens of owners/sheeple. I don’t think we are yet at the point where the majority of humanity has become like battery chicken which can be euthanized as soon as the owner feels he is going bankrupt. (I hope not)
In many places of the world, people mostly brought this on themselves as much as it was enforced. Maybe nothing less could have shaken the faith in the institutions, the experts, technology or made people think about what could be more valuable than their own little self.
I think we are simply witnessing the resulting emerging behavior of multiple actors, each acting from its own point of vue (like a flock of birds, a tornado, …).
In other words, population reduction will happen (has already started in some countries, without the governments/economic forces able to prevent the trends) in a systemic way. Corporate/gov predators are one of the means by which it is unfolding (there are many others, each adding up)
This, of course, is my personal intuition and I accept I may be totally wrong. The only elements I have to support this thesis are:
In any case, this is only one way to look at things.
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Thanks for that Charles. Always a treat to get inside your head for a minute.
BTW, did you see that awesome Gurwinder link from Gaia? I only ask because as I was reading it, I was thinking this stuff has your name written all over it. 😊
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Thank you 🙂
I admire the Stoics and _try_ to live by their principle.
However, having been there myself, I have found there is a fine line between Stoics self-discipline and Christian mortification (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortification_of_the_flesh), of which the cilice is an external characteristic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cilice). There are internal mental equivalents which may go unnoticed to oneself for long, if this is the water you have always evolved in.
As you can see, to achieve the syncretism of their various cultural heritages is a difficult task for Europeans 🙂 (I am sure ABC relates 🙂
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And then there also is the state of bliss, faith in providence, total utter acceptance.
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Your not the only one that looks at and believes these things, I very much agree with everything you have stated above.
I’ve recently been distracted from energy studies by looking deeper into systems and system dynamics, especially in relation to scaling and natural power laws of scaling, all in regard to the human situation of current industrial civilization.
The more I research and the more modern civilization looks like Nate Hagens’ superorganism, and appears to be acting in exactly the same way, from scaling laws applying, to fractal subsystems and most likely end of growth and death.
I’m still working on the last bit in my mind, however the similarities in growth to every complex organism, is undeniable, so why wouldn’t death by either disease, starvation or just plain old age not be similar?
Look at what is happening in highly urbanised parts of civilization, whether Japan, or Germany, UK or Australia, they all have birth rates below replacement, with some countries trying to increase immigration while others not so much. Japan and South Korea are both dying internally because they don’t have immigration, with aging populations and much harder to maintain systems because of falling overall populations, especially in the future for South Korea, but in the present for Japan. (still working on all this!!)
The natural conclusion for any one society and the world as a whole is that falling population, means the ability to look after all existing systems also falls, so a simplification has to happen, as it often has when local civilizations in the past collapsed. If either Japan or South Korea was unable to gain products and energy from outside their immediate society, like they do in the modern world, the simplification would be much faster than is happening.
Likewise for the whole world, when we get to population decline, we wont be able to maintain existing systems, and without outside help, which certainly wont be coming, the systems unravel to simplicity very quickly, not unlike death in any complex organism.
Charles, instead of thinking it might be only one way to look at things, instead it might be the only way we should look at things.
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Thank you, Hideaway.
Indeed, when a large tree falls in a forest, smaller life immediately feeds on it (actually, it even started before it fell). Our modern parasites are not unlike the mushrooms and termites.
About scaling laws, are you referencing Kleiber’s law? Where does the reference to fractal subsystems come from? It seems you have a second book in the making 🙂
The fractal organisation of matter and energy flows (in space and in time!) is an incredibly intricate and beautiful sight. Modern humans call it systems and sub-systems. The nomenclature of life is used too: organisms and super-organisms. But then, does this imply the planet is alive? Maybe that’s also what the religious nomenclature of gods meant.
From the point of vue of morality, law and individual responsibility, I still think mistakes were made, care was lacking, things are being hidden, some light should be shed on the circumstances, and justice should be served. This is not incompatible. Polysemy of Reality.
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Funnily enough, I am at a stade where it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that the same vaccine, but administered 70 years ago would have given all the appearances of “working”.
A smaller population, not travelling that much, not saturated with various poisons from the air, food, and water amidst richer ecosystems…
Maybe we are completely fooling ourselves with our “knowledge”.
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Very good point.
The poster child for reinforcing the widespread belief that vaccines are one of man’s most impressive scientific achievements is the polio vaccine. I have seen graphs that suggest polio was trending to zero before they started the vaccination campaign.
A problem with being caught lying is that it calls into question everything else you have claimed in the past. I don’t believe anything they say now without careful checking.
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Charles, Kleiber’s law applies to the biological world and a very similar scaling law applies to human settlements, only to a different power ratio depending on what it is. All the human ‘built stuff’, the physical like road length, power lines, energy use, number of gas stations has an 85% increase for every doubling of population size in settlements, while all the social ‘stuff’ of interactions, wages, new patents, diseases, crime etc have a superlinear power ratio of 1.15 (a 115% increase for every doubling of population size).
See all of Professor Geoffrey West’s work on this. Plenty of youtube videos…
In other words the human superorganism is acting very much like biological complex organisms, with less efficiency. Professor West has taken all this to a certain extent, but not really used it for prediction of where we are headed, which occurs to me as old age and death, just like any organism, and what happened to just about every civilization before fossil fuels.
I’m just starting to write up an article to send to Rob, to see if it’s good enough for posting..
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👍👍Perfect timing. I was thinking we need a new post.
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Great. Looking forward to reading it.
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Gaia G.,
A quick note on an off-blog-topic, so apologies to everyone else. This is a continuation of the comment above where I gave a history of the Chaya plant I have. I went to eBay, and the fellow is now selling the Chaya that he originally listed as “Male Chaya ” as ” Chaya”, and no listing for the Aibika that he was erroneously selling as “Chaya”,which I told him was a form of Aibika. Evidently he finally realised the error. At least he’s not selling the incorrectly labelled one anymore.
Also, I continued the conversation we had above, yesterday. I think you might have missed it. I just want to know if you have Achacha (a Bolivian Garcinia species ) growing. If you do, it’ll save me taking the plant here to yungaburra. A quick note about that, maybe below the conversation above, would be appreciated.
I saw your comment on the videos that Rob posted, and agree with it.. I’ve been an atheist since I was maybe 15 or so. Religion , with the possible exception of non-organised Paganism, is bane on humanity, but ineradicable. The whole blood-soaked history of it. I miss Christopher Hitchens. What a delight to watch him deflating pompous windbags like Blair. His ” The Portable Atheist.” is excellent.
David Higham
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Hello David,
Thank you for your patience and goodwill in reaching out and finding me further down the stream. I think I was broadsided by the visceralness of that evangelical doco and returning to the nurturing calm of growing things is just the antidote I need! I do have an Achacha tree that is slowly growing, it’s only about 1.5m high after 5 years so I am thinking it’s not quite in the right spot, there’s quite a bit of shade where it is but the leaves look very healthy and it’s finally starting to take off just this past year (maybe because of all the rain?) From the description of the fruit, I cannot wait to taste it, sounds just like it could be a new favourite! However, I am prone to saying each fruit is my favourite, usually the one that is ripe and in front of me! I would really appreciate another which I would try growing in another part of the property, I tend to have multiple locales for each type of tree as you never know what might work better one year or another, having so many microclimates within our block, especially due to the slope, too. But, I should have said from the onset that I want to buy all these plants, your offer of knowledge and just having them available is already the gift I am thankful to receive. I know we would prefer a trade of some kind but I don’t see what I could be growing that you don’t already have, besides petrol is getting dearer all the time and you have to drive quite some way to the markets with your plants, so let me at least feel I am contributing to travel costs. Is Yungaburra the only market you attend?
All the best to you and your family and see you soon. The rain has finally stopped today, now it will be a cool night but so good to be able to see the stars as well as sun!
Namaste.
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That’s okay. Don’t worry about it. Just a couple of fruit trees left, and we’ll fit them in okay. The others will just be bare-rooted plants. I noticed yesterday that a small branch of the Chaya that was broken off by a kangaroo a while back is growing, so the Chaya should have some roots. They should all be useful and productive plants and grow well in your climate.
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Hello David and Joanna,
That’s all so wonderful and you know the most amazing thing is when I went back up to our previous thread, I read what you added about the weeping bamboo (which I believe I had tried at the beginning and it died after one season, so it must have been too wet here for it as you surmised). Lo and behold, I almost choked on my herbal coffee substitute (hiya Campbell and Nicki!) when I read that you are the undisputed Mango mavens because truly that is my favourite fruit of all time and one of the reasons I thought to try the Tablelands for our new venture 12 years ago. Alas, I did not know that they do so poorly in our microclimate here off Tully Falls Rd due to the unrelenting wet at the wrong times of year. This last season some seemed to flourish and set many flowers and young manglets (my pet name for the cute baby fruit, you can see how I cherish them) but I do not know how they ripened as I was not here during that season. I asked my neighbours to pick as many as they want for green mango chutney, but of course when I returned here in mid April, there was no sign of any fruit. Most seasons the trees flower but the panicles turn brown and fall off and only set a few fruit, but I have had ripe fruit from them, just nothing as I first imagined as mango heaven. This is bamboo and banana heaven, it’s certainly not Mareeba or even the Millstream area near here which fares very well with mangoes. I have planted about 25 of them (mostly the usual cultivar suspects which are even more dubious here as you well know) and seedlings of any new mango variety I could find at different markets. But certainly not 75 different cultivars that you boast. I am dying to secure any mango variety you think would have a chance to do well here, and I really need to learn how to graft as there are many trees here just awaiting new hope. Now I really believe I have found my guru (at least in all things that grow here and that is such thrilling news. Thank you so much.
See you on Saturday then. Where in the park are your stalls E16.17, or perhaps I will just have a good wander and I will definitely find you!
Have a great week.
Namaste.
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Hello Gaia,
I’m definitely not a tropical fruit guru, most of the more detailed stuff I know is how fruits grow here. There are plenty of people on the coast here that know a lot more about the various “ultra tropicals” that won’t grow here. For me, this block is about perfect, a moderate climate that’s still warm enough to grow plenty of various fruits, with (so far ) reliable enough rainfall. We haven’t had a wet season fail so far, always enough to keep things green and growing in the wet, the main dry time is August to the storms, in November most years. You’ll have less of a dry, but you know that anyway. Our income for the first twenty years here was growing and selling low chill peaches,nectarines,plums, persimmons, avocados (main one), mangos, plus smaller amounts of a few others . We also had a small beef cattle herd here until 2018, grazing the understory grass in the forest here (there are various forest types on the block, some sections are too dense to have any grass cover). For the last twenty plus years the income has been mainly from the sale of ornamental plants and fruit trees, though we’ve scaled back now ,and only a couple of fruit trees left. We haven’t watered or fertilized the main orchard for over twenty years, and I slash the grass only once a year at the end of winter. The mangos do well without irrigation here, so always plenty of mangos in their season. . About 25 cultivars are only two or three years old, I swapped wood with another mango collector, so we’re looking forward to those fruiting . Some interesting stuff amongst them. There isn’t a stone fruit on the block here now. Still get some persimmons and a few avocados, but not many left now in the main orchard. Around the homestead area is where we have most of the various other species are planted, most of which get some water in the dry.
When we came here it was a forest block. We’ve built everything, including the house, sheds, cattle yards, shade houses . (The main shed was wrecked in cyclone Larry, and the insurance payment paid for a replacement shed to be built, so we didn’t build that shed ) . The cyclone strength here is less than the coast, but the strong ones like Larry can still hit hard. Anyway, I’m talking too much. I hope the plants do well for you.
D.H.
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Hello David,
Wow, I have been so inspired by what you and your family have created together but mainly I am so happy for you that you lived your dream to be in connection with the land through your own vision and labour all these many and good years. I am grateful to have had a taste of that and despite all that is happening, it still is to me the thing I want to do in the time remaining, just disappear into the block and commune with fruit trees. It doesn’t seem too much to ask but at the same time, I have already received too much of my share of energy and there are times when I feel remorse and wistfulness for my part in the great unravelling. l can only hope that humanity will be able to re-weave itself into a new form but I don’t expect to be here for that great work. However, perhaps someone will find our patches of trees and shelter awhile here, and if they still bear fruit and fuel for their needs, then I will be very satisfied for all my varied efforts.
Here I will openly invite myself to your property, maybe that’s an easier way to meet than at the market? It would save you taking the plants there and I really would love to share some time with you as I am certain we have a lot to talk about! You’re closer to me here in Ravenshoe than Yungaburra (I must admit, I rarely go out to the markets now, I’m really a hermit when I’m up here). Let me know what suits you best, I look forward to meeting you both. We can continue this conversation on your email, thank you for sharing that earlier.
Namaste.
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By “here”, I meant this block. As you know, your climate is not the same. Your best adviser would be a closer neighbour. It sounds like you’ve got quite a lot planted anyway, so it won’t be long before you figure out what does or doesn’t do well. Bananas have an interesting range of flavours too. We have about nine types growing. I recently planted a Pisang Rajah, which I hope is correctly named. Some people rate it the best flavour-wise. Supposed to have a slightly furry skin, orangy flesh, and a flavour distinctly different to others. I’ve had misnamed plants of a lot of things,in the past, so we’ll see how it goes.
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https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1791441865256132740
–Nathaniel Rich, Losing Earth
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The bulk that suffer aren’t human.
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Art Berman’s logic today seems a little shaky.
MPP states life evolves and behaves to maximize power. Because renewables have lower power density Berman concludes a transition from higher power fossil energy is impossible.
That’s no doubt true for a voluntary transition. But what about a forced transition when fossils deplete?
I think we will transition back to a renewable wood/beasts of burden/slave world, because with fossils gone these will be the maximum power sources available. But it won’t be voluntarily.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/a-renewable-energy-transition-violates-the-maximum-power-principle/
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Nate Hagens’ Great Simplification podcast is asking listeners to provide feedback and suggestions via a survey.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/special-request-and-community-announcement
Perhaps you could join me in recommending he focus on population reduction, which is the only useful response to overshoot, and that he interviews Jack Alpert.
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Dear Rob,
I hope thou are feeling well.
I did partake in the survey and mentioned Dr. Alpert.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Me too. I plagiarized Rob for three of the fill in questions: “Interview Jack Alpert and focus on population reduction, which is the only useful response to overshoot”
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Done.
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I did the survey last night, and mentioned population, population, population as what needs to be discussed along with more overshoot awareness.
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I have a background in designing surveys for academia and this is not a great survey TBH, but I’ve had a crack at it 🙂
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This was my comment: People either see the world as driven by geology or driven by culture. The people who who use geology are normally right. This podcast has way too much focus on armchair experts speculating about how to make peasants behave better through the lens of culture. It would be much more helpful to work on accurately describing our predicament rather than going on and on about the special topics of wealthy liberals who are trying to “fix” things.
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That’s a really good comment. An accurate understanding of the physical reality would I think be enough to cause the population to fall quickly. He should interview Hideaway.
I also was not impressed with the design of the survey.
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I hope Nate reads all of these. When I was a supervisor in a call center, we would setup these so called “anonymous” surveys for the employee with the intention of “with your help, we want to make this a better workplace”.
But it was never about that, and it was just about weeding out the disobedient employees. As soon I was shown the survey results with the name of the employees who were supposed to be anonymous…. Well, I knew everything was full of shit.
p.s. Good to see you back on this site Monk. I was actually getting a little worried that I might have struck a nerve with that wisecrack about the like button a few days ago. 😊
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I’ve been busy with work, many deadlines. My job is stressful 😦
I forgot to add in the survey that Nate is a lil b!tch for bragging about having secrets and then saying he can’t tell us! LOL
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He’s also a coward without integrity for staying silent on a crime that has killed 17 million people and counting.
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Nobody understands and explains middle east geopolitics better than Prof. John Mearsheimer.
In this talk he discusses the Gaza genocide and concludes:
I’m thinking this means eventual nuclear war.
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Preptip: Healthy fat will probably be scarce when SHTF. I like olive oil, coconut oil, and butter.
The price of olive oil has gone up a lot recently (I think) due to drought. I have learned that it keeps well beyond the BB date so when it goes on sale, which is rare here and maybe only once a year, I stock up. Because tensions are rising I will buy more than normal this time. I know from my spreadsheet that I consume about 1L of olive oil every 3 months. So 4L is good for one year. Tomorrow I will buy 8L to give an extra year of buffer. If international trade was to stop before I could buy more I know I could easily consume half what I do now and thus stretch 8L to 4 or more years.
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Preptip: Continuing on the fat theme, lard is another healthy fat that, although I do not consume a lot, I like to have a stock on hand for yorkshire pudding and pastry. Lard is also a good locally produced backup in the event imported fats like olive and coconut oil become unavailable.
Despite what you read on the box and on the web, I have learned lard does not keep well for more than a couple years at room temperature, especially if you have warm summers. So now I keep 6 lbs of lard in the bottom back corner of the fridge and expect its shelf life to be infinite.
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We render our own lard each time we kill a pig. Best fat for cooking with. We store it in the fridge or freezer, there is no degradation. I have not tried room temp as we live in the sub tropics.
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Nice! Unfortunatley the farm I assist has no livestock. They are discussing adding a few small breed cattle so maybe in the future.
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Preptip: My final fat tip is on butter. Salted butter seems to have a near infinite shelf life in the fridge. Given inflation, there is no reason to not buy as much as you have space to store it in your fridge.
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Dear Rob,
I hope thou are feeling well.
Have thou considered ghee as an option instead of butter in terms of longevity whilst in storage?
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Yes I have made ghee at home from fresh butter and recently my local discount store started carrying 3Kg buckets of ghee so I considered buying some. I calculated that bulk ghee is the same price per Kg as fresh butter, however I prefer the taste of fresh butter so I decided not to stock ghee. I suppose if you consider the water that is evaporated from butter then ghee is the better deal but it was not enough to sway me.
I’m also trying to standardize on one item for each class of foods. For shelf stable cooking fat that does not require refrigeration I very much like coconut oil, and it is half the price of ghee per Kg.
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This upcoming episode is going to be epic. 🤣
Last I checked, the most valuable company in Europe, as determined by the infinitely wise stock market, makes Ozempic.
Lots of profit to be made from fatties who would rather inject a dodgy substance with side effects than knock off the soda pop.
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Sugar can be as addictive as cocaine.
https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/experts-is-sugar-addictive-drug
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Another implication of climate change I had not thought about.
https://www.collapse2050.com/collapse-of-the-u-s-home-insurance-system/
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When insurance collapses so does our society basically.
Who would buy something expensive especially a car knowing that you can’t insure it. One crash and it is useless and no compensation. Houses, boats, art works, machinary are big investments. INsurance requires a growth economy to function due to investment returns. Unless it is subsidised by governemts it will falter in the coming decade.
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Hello everyone,
Yes, Houston we have a problem, as proven this week with the wild storms there that have left a trail of destruction to the tune of estimated $7 billion in damage, with just one freak storm lasting a few hours. Have you seen the photos of the mangled power lines and skyscrapers of broken windows? Even if the insurance companies can manage to cough up the funds to even attempt repair before the next storm hits, countries are scrambling to find the manpower to do the fixing, and the replacement materials as well, not to mention the energy costs in extra fossil fuels which are now siphoned off to repair infrastructure. The climate chaos is striking our Western civilisation very squarely on now.
Also very instructive is the down grid scenario for hundreds of thousands of Western-living people, occurring during a heat wave, after a few days the rotting foods from fridges and freezers will become a real problem, as well as the inability to live without air-conditioning, and this is just the beginning of the longer term repercussions of longer term power outages. They are warning that it will be weeks before all customers have their power restored, but every week now finds us in unchartered territory, so who can say with any certainty of anything?
The recent solar storms should give us pause that a wider scope grid-down event is possible. We have been forewarned again to have more this coming week, and they are billed as another lucky chance for us to capture the stunning auroras, rather than yet another Russian roulette for major systems disruptions for which we have no plan B. I thank Rob and others here for opening eyes to new ideas that propel an un-denial mindset down another rabbit hole, and this time I have revisited one in which once interred, there is no clawing back out. Rob, you shared that episode between Bret Weinstein and Ben Davidson on the solar storm activity and what that means in a greater cosmological view and I have now listened to it several times to try to understand the main premise, that of up-coming earth magnetic pole shift and cataclysm, stuff of ancient legends of every major religion and civilisation but now we have the scientific means of ferreting out a mechanism. You said these concepts were new to you, but there was no follow-up discussion on them here. What did you and others think of the science of that presentation, namely the periodicity of earth, sun, solar system, and galactic changes? I raise it now because there seems a thread of truth here that follows on the idea of a fractal nature of the universe and all systems within, and perhaps understanding the greater cosmological picture can give us some insight to what is happening on every level of our cycles of collapse and renewal? I found myself asking “What knowledge could supersede all others in changing our world, or even cosmological view?”
There has been a pause in the rain here and I bounce back and forth between purposeful physical activity outside and purposeful mental excursions in front of this screen, and never a moment do I want to forget how incredibly lucky I am to be alive in consciousness.
Go well everyone, namaste.
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Here is the episode Gaia is referring to in case you missed it above.
It introduced a bunch of new ideas to me that I am still digesting so do not yet have an opinion.
I will say that I respect the integrity and intelligence of Bret Weinstein very much so I would not be quick to dismiss anything he covers. He’s also very good at coming back and correcting himself if he learns he made a mistake, as for example he did with mask effectiveness for covid.
I does bother me that he covers this threat which I think has a lower probability of taking out civilization than energy depletion and degrowth, which he is mostly silent on, and I assume is another example of a polymath in denial.
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Here’s a 3 minute summary of Ben Davidson’s theory that sun activity impacts our weather.
Some people think this is pseudoscience, others think it’s real.
It could be a sophisticated attempt to deny human caused climate change, or it could be a valid theory that fills gaps in our understanding. I don’t have an opinion yet.
https://x.com/SunWeatherMan/status/1792305169159397392
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Understanding climate I think is mostly beyond us because our models are too simplistic. Does digging up millions of years of buried carbon and burning it have an impact – most likely. But what is the impact of the furnace of our little solar system as it provides most of the heat to begin with? What about water vapour, vegetation removal, ice formation, etc…. it is all too complex to make anything close to accurate predictions.
In the end overshoot has consequences and that is that. We could be hit by a meteor tomorrow and that would stop all this worrying about well everything. Carpe diem.
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I think it’s reasonable to have some doubt about the climate models, which is why I place more weight on the work of James Hansen et. al. that predicts the future by looking at what actually happened in the past under similar conditions. His work has concluded that every time CO2 has risen to current levels the temperature has increased by amount that will be incompatible with our current civilzation. I also trust Hansen because IIRC all of his predictions have come true, and in most cases reality has proven to be worse than his cautious forecasts.
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