By marromai: A Purpose in Life

Today we have a heartfelt post by marromai from Germany sharing his experience of becoming overshoot aware and how he deals with the knowledge. The essay was written in German and translated to English.

Life is wonderful – sometimes at least. But most of the time it is a very monotonous thing. And the older I get, the more often I wonder about the purpose of it. Every day, every week, every year the same procedure – enjoy the little moments, but for the rest of the time, hope that it passes by as soon as possible. Most days consist of a typical routine like getting up, sitting at work for what feels like an eternity, having a short and stressful time with my family, and then either doing chores or attending social gatherings now and then. Get the house in shape on Saturdays, and on Sundays rest or do something with the family. Rinse and repeat, every day is groundhog’s day.

Although one could think I’m blessed, because I live in the best Germany ever1. I’m married to a wonderful wife – as wonderful as they can get in their late 30s – I have four adorable children whom I love very much but who often get on my last nerve, a house and a garden where there is always plenty of work to do for which I have neither time nor money nor desire, and my dream job as an electrical engineer, which nowadays is unfortunately all too often just another bureaucratic clerk who only sees the soldering iron from afar. So basically, I should be doing very well, you would think. I just sell a bit of my lifetime for money and can enjoy a decent life.

Unfortunately, this is not the case. Personally, my biggest problem is this: Working as an employed engineer has lost its magic – it often doesn’t even make sense to me, it just sucks. For the most part, it consists of bureaucratic stuff that doesn’t solve any problems but is just to be done for its own sake. Consequently, I complete tasks at the last minute with minimal effort, which you can’t even call work to rule. Everyday work is dull, lacking real tinkering challenges and practical problems to solve. The “always having to be there” and the resulting disproportionate amount of wasted life time kills any motivation and makes me strongly question the purpose of the whole mumbo jumbo called “gainful employment”. Maybe work makes life sweet – but in this respect I have diabetes… Now and then I think about self-employment and alternative income possibilities, combined with more personal freedom – but the chance to earn enough money to support a family is close to zero. Especially since the difficult economic times that are looming mark a very unfavorable time for this. How nice it would be to have a 4-day half-day job, with full pay, of course. Or even better, if they would just transfer my salary to me, I would know what to do with my time, wouldn’t I?

Since a while it feels like I have no time at all for personal activities. Even on days off I don’t really know what to do with myself. Apart from the tasks on the house and garden, which absolutely have to be done, I often don’t manage to start anything, although I have so many ideas – but rarely the motivation to actually begin. Or too little time, that starting is not worth it – at least that’s what I tell myself. So, I end up just like at work, where I spend most of my time in front of a computer, trying to avoid getting bored while reading in some online forums. As it turned out afterwards, this was the point, where my problems began, resulting in a total destruction of any purpose in life.

You may ask, what is it, what one could read, that is so depressing?

Beside electronic forums (for new ideas, which I will never implement) I read mainly alternative news and discussions about current events. This made me realize a long time ago that official media are nothing but propaganda channels – and I really can’t listen to them anymore. Russia here, Ukraine there. Evil Putin will destroy us all. Corona is so dangerous, be sure to get vaccinated… I can’t understand how the majority of the population can believe this bullshit – but that’s another topic. It will soon matter little anyway, once you understand that all of this are just side effects to a superordinate set of issues I came across while browsing over some threads of my favorite forum.

Most people will dismiss the following problem as absurd and unrealistic. Some will understand it but will not feel affected by it or will not want to admit it. And the tiny remainder? They are left with no one to talk about a matter, for which the great majority will laugh at them as end-time prophets and declare them crazy. It is the realization that our entire civilization could only grow so fast with the help of fossil energy – and that we are running out of this energy source now. Not because we planned it so or think we can replace it to get a grip on the ridiculous CO2 climate change issue. (I think it is rather presumptuous and a huge farce to try to control the temperature of a whole ecosystem and save the planet by reducing a single trace gas in the atmosphere, while not being able to provide a solid weather forecast for more than 2 days.) But the decarbonization that politicians are longing for will happen anyway. Just not in the way they envision. That’s because fossil fuels currently still cover the main demand for energy, and the much-vaunted renewables can’t even replace a fraction of that. Now we have reached the limits of what our planet can provide. What we are currently experiencing with our gas and electricity prices is only the beginning of the coming shortages. The Ukrainian-Russian war, which actually is driven by the USA, is in fact an economic war – and the economy only works with energy. Without energy, all the money in the world is useless: “Our main problem is a caloric one. We can print money like hay, but not a single drop of oil”2. The coming lack of oil will tear everything apart and cost billions of people’s lives by cold and hunger.

How it could come so far is what nobody dares to speak about: There are simply too many people on this planet who have already consumed too much raw materials and energy and always want more. It is only through coal, oil and gas that humanity has been able to multiply so enormously. But without maintaining these energy flows, the population numbers cannot be sustained. There are 10 calories of fossil energy in every calorie of food. But the soils are depleted and no longer yield anything without artificial fertilizers, agriculture is so thoroughly industrialized and complex that it can no longer be run on pure muscle power, certainly not to feed a country as densely populated as Germany. And now, of all times, we are running out of fossil energy?

The promised rescue by renewable energies is just window dressing and cannot free us from this predicament, nor can nuclear power plants. They supply only a fraction of electrical energy, but no raw materials for industry, as can be seen well in the current European gas shortage situation. No fertilizer can be produced from solar cells, and we cannot melt steel with wind energy, not even with 10 times the number of windmills. In addition to oil and gas, many other natural resources are now depleted that are required to build alternative energy sources. Fossil energy has enabled exponential population growth and unprecedented prosperity with ever increasing complexity and interconnectedness. Likewise, future energy shortages will cause an abrupt reduction in complexity – which is called collapse. And no, this will not be in a distant future, we are already in the middle of it. The coming times will be bleak. And it can go much further down very quickly when “winter is coming”, as the current situation in Europe shows.

All in all, a huge complex of topics, in whose importance I have no doubt – but the momentous realizations from it are simply devastating and destroy any further motivation and search for meaning in life – a nihilistic vicious circle of demotivation, effects see above. And the worst thing is, that one suffers all alone from this knowledge. Because the majority of people are not able to even see this unpleasant reality, let alone understand: “Blessed are the poor in spirit”.

So how to continue? One may try to convince as many others as possible of this reality and build a low-tech community. With a group of collapse-aware people, surviving could be much easier, when the crisis fully hits. Unfortunately, in Germany this is very difficult, since most people are totally brainwashed by official media. So, for me, I have decided to just try to enjoy as much free time and remaining prosperity as possible – while it’s still possible. Since I need money for this, I have to work, which is contrary to “Carpe Diem”. So I go to work, but don’t really do work – not perfect, much more like business as usual. What a shame – denying the un-denial… not knowing in the first place would have been much easier.

But as long as the hamster wheel turns and turns, you inevitably have to run with it. You have to learn to control the speed, otherwise you die of exhaustion. For someone who has recognized being in a hamster wheel, one may eventually be inclined to consider a premature exit. But that should not be a solution – especially not if you have a family, which you don’t want to leave in the lurch. Besides, aren’t you too curious to see what happens next? How bad will the crisis get? How long does such a collapse take? And what will life be like in the future? Maybe there will be challenges and problems to solve that you missed so much in your current job, for example finding food every day? Doesn’t this give you an ultimate purpose in life? You’ll probably miss the days spent in the warm office, browsing through internet forums and dreaming up gloomy fantasies about the future…

I leave you with a favorite quote from a relevant episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation:

Seize the time Maribor. Live now. Make now always the most precious time. Now will never come again.

Footnotes:

[1] German Bundespräsident F.W. Steinmeier on German Unity Day 2020: “We live in the best Germany of all times”.
[2] https://archiv1.dasgelbeforum.net/index.php?id=193123 (A German forum of critical thinkers)

289 thoughts on “By marromai: A Purpose in Life”

  1. Definitely not alone in such thinking, marromai – I’ve often felt the same way, although am fortunate to be much older, now retired, with kids grown up. But seeking a purpose in life overlooks what we are, merely biological organisms evolved to survive as a species, each one of us to live long enough to reproduce, raise our offspring, then kill time, until it kills us. It’s only our species’ toolmaking abilities, driven by our complex brain development with all else that goes with it (conceptualisation, vocal communication, manual dexterity, group cooperation), that has enabled us to think well beyond the simple needs of mundane survival, to exploit our environment for the purpose of endlessly making life “better” (but sidetracked by inevitable religion and other tribal idiocy, a side-effect of teleologism), which has led to the present situation. Malthus foresaw this a long time ago, purely in terms of food then (no motor vehicles!), but fossil-fueled technology was only starting up in his day. Technology has since always been proposed as a solution to all the problems that keep arising, pushing back the inevitable, but we’ve now reached the point of starkly seeing its limitations: the hard wall is looming, and fast. Meanwhile, folk in Africa, and elsewhere, are churning out kids as fast as ever, seeing that’s still their most meaningful goal in life.
    I personally cannot see any way out; we’re trapped in our needs for comfort and diversions, so enjoy it while it lasts! Nature will inevitably do her thing, but don’t worry: Homo sapiens won’t go extinct, at least not now, just experience a catastrophic decline in numbers, to sustainable levels.

    PP

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  2. Hello marromai, thank you for your thoughtful and wistful personal essay. The translation is superb in that I could feel your angst and your resolve to face it. I heartfully second Paul’s response that many of your musings have also crossed my mind, in various waves and with varying force over many years of my own self-evolution. I believe I might be of an age between you and Paul, but each of us has our own life experience to bring to the table and all offerings are valid and invaluable, no matter our years. It is not an easy task to be a human being, wherever we are planted and in whatever time of history.

    And here I may add that which guides me with meaning daily, especially now, a touchstone more treasured than any other I have picked up along my journey. And that is compassion, the cultivation of which brings me much joy and yes, a certain suffering, too, but ultimately the goal of acceptance and peace with whatever my consciousness can embrace. Maybe that is a true meaning of love in a universal sense; it is what I seek to align myself to. I am far, far from this but the striving through daily practice is more than reason for me to greet each new day. Compassion and its active manifestation of kindness ask nothing but a chance to work itself in myriad ways, seen and unseen, in greater and smaller measures, it is the quality not quantity that fulfils. We can practice kindness through any situation, but we especially respond to suffering, perhaps because we know what it is to suffer.

    Kindness brings its own reward, not just the appreciation by the recipient of a kind thought or deed, but also the bubbling over of our own gratitude for each and every act of kindness, random or bestowed, that had to come to pass for our unique consciousness and lives. When we see with wonder and awe our intertwined relationship to another being or creature or tree or star, we truly own our sense of self. For without that other to give coordinates for our own perspectives, we float aimlessly without bearing in space and time, and there is no there, there for our self-directed purposes. We cannot seize the now or live in the moment in a vacuum, now has no existential meaning for us earth and time-bound entities without reference points of past and future, and most importantly, triangulations with every being that interfaces with our own. The best we can understand is a continuum, being part of the flow and even directing the flow a tiny bit if we are fortunate in birth and place.

    If this will be my deep and true self-chosen meaning and purpose, it must stand through any circumstance and I am prepared to be tested through the unfolding collapse. It remains to be seen how I choose to exercise generosity of spirit when everything becomes scarce, and what are my human limits of compassion and kindness when another challenges my own or my family’s survival. Like I said, being human isn’t easy and there is so much to experience and learn. Since I am still here, there is another chance to grasp whatever my denial-addled brain has cooked up for me!

    Thank you again, marromai, for bringing to the fore the ultimate questions of Why? and How? I am not a religious person but from time to time, the beauty of language and humanity shines through to me via certain verses of the bible, this one stood out in relation to this new post.

    So teach us to number our days, that we may apply our hearts unto wisdom. Psalm 90:12 KJV

    Go well, everyone.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  3. You mention “Groundhog Day”, in passing, but I found the movie (with Bill Murray) to be inspiring (as well as troubling, and entertaining). Let’s focus on the inspiring: Start each day trying to make the best use of it that you can, and review each day to see what you might have done better, and what prevented you from doing better. As for “better”, that’s subjective of course, but “compassion” is a plausible start. How about compassion for your wife? What can you do to make her life a bit easier? If you have a garden, what can you do to make it a bit more productive? In contrast to the movie, you won’t suddenly wake up to realize that you have escaped the trap, but you will have exercised your Will (for the benefit of others, but the exercise is for you).

    For example, I met a woman at a local farmer’s market and discovered that she was frustrated by a sewing machine that, despite recent repairs, could not be used. I fixed it, in a way which was simple but subtle.

    I buy damaged fruit and vegetables, at discount, to use in my own cooking, to prevent food waste. And so on. These acts will not change the world, but they please me, because I am not “following the script”.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. Hello Lathechuck,
      Your sincere and warm-hearted message has touched me and is a gentle and kindly reminder that we do have a great power in our every moment choices which taken in full is our unique and meaning-filled life. I feel uplifted by your examples and they recall me to a quote by Mother Teresa, one who knew a thing or two about compassion in action–“Not all of us can do great things, but we can do small things with great love.” Let’s live another Groundhog day to the fullest! All the best to you and your family.

      Like

      Reply

  4. I’d like to thank marromai for breaking the ice on a difficult topic.

    I imagine there are quite a few people like marromai that are overshoot aware and struggle with depression and isolation.

    I was one of those people. Fifteen years ago, I stumbled on peak oil and went through a really dark period. I eventually emerged and while I still have bad days, I’m mostly ok now. I’d like to share a few tips that have helped me.

    Savor Rather Than Regret Awareness

    It’s tempting to wish you were born with normal denial genes or never learned about overshoot. I don’t do that. Happiness comes from wanting what you have, not wishing for what you don’t have. I savor my knowledge and the exclusive club I belong to. When I’m among strangers I feel like a superior alien surrounded by a lesser species that can’t see reality. Savor your knowledge!

    Apply Context

    In the fortunate countries, like Canada and Germany, a poor person lives better than a pharaoh. We have a long way to fall before life becomes as difficult as the majority of our ancestors experienced. Studying history has helped me to be grateful.

    Find a Hobby

    Find a hobby that is enjoyable and can consume an infinite amount of time for little cost that results in something that might be useful in a post-collapse world. My thing is collecting and organizing digital media like books, documentaries, movies, tv, music, art, photos I’ve taken, etc. My library now has half a million items, all perfectly organized such that I can find anything with a couple clicks. Building my library keeps my brain occupied instead of dwelling on depressing thoughts. Using my library educates and entertains me. In my delusional apocalyptic dreams, I imagine I’ll be the most popular person on my block when the internet fails, and everyone loses their streaming services. If that does not come to pass, I can watch Columbo episodes while waiting for the radiation to arrive. If I was not a computer geek, I might look to a hobby with similar characteristics like playing a musical instrument, or distilling alcohol.

    Learn to Enjoy Your Own Company

    Most people don’t like to talk about overshoot and are uncomfortable around doomers. I find it difficult to discuss the irrelevant fluff most people prefer in social situations. As a consequence, my social life has suffered. Rather than being depressed I have learned to enjoy my own company. I have great conversations with myself. It’s not so crazy when you understand that our brain is a bunch of independent cooperating modules.

    Walk in Nature

    I walk 6km in nature most days. It always makes me feel better and I sleep much better. Walking is a gentle exercise with little risk of an injury we don’t want in a post-collapse world and is suitable for all ages including old bodies like mine. I do most of my reading via audiobooks while walking.

    Help Others

    I try to be helpful with my time to friends and family. It makes me feel good. They usually appreciate it.

    Prepare for Collapse

    For many years I dreamed of things I wanted to do, some of which I could not afford, like buying a small farm. Dreaming did not make me feel better. Then I started doing things to prepare and I felt much better. Doing not dreaming makes you feel better. I have done many things to prepare. A few things will no doubt prove to be wastes of time and money. Others may prove to be life savers, or at least life extenders.

    When I realized I would never own a farm I changed my plan and built a relationship with a small farm in my community. They get volunteer labor and a better farm than they could afford without me. I get a local source of food, healthy physical labor, a sense of accomplishment, and some friends I can count on when times get bad.

    Another important thing I did to prepare was make a spreadsheet inventory of what I have and what I think I’ll need. Then I methodically acquired things and updated my spreadsheet from need to have. Preparing feels good. Being organized feels good. When I hear a great prepping idea, I have a place to put the idea. I added a column in the spreadsheet for how many days something will last. When I’m feeling anxious, I look at my spreadsheet and I feel better.

    It’s possible to prepare without a lot of money or wasting money. The idea is to have a plan and buy things on sale at the best possible price that you know you will need and use even if “happy motoring” continues long into the future. Here are a couple examples to show how I think.

    As already discussed, one of my things is walking in nature. When SHTF and there’s no gas or jet fuel for travel, I can continue to enjoy walking, provided I have boots. I know that if I look after them a pair of boots will last me 3 years. I know boots will never be cheaper than they are today and because they all come from Asia there’s a good chance they’ll be scarce in the future. I know the same boots can be used for work at the farm or for paid labor. I know boots don’t go bad and will be tradeable if I have a surplus. I know I’ve got maybe 15 years left before I’m too old to walk. It’s easy to calculate and justify how many boots I should have in inventory.

    Another example. My reading of history suggests when SHTF protein will be expensive and scarce. I love the taste of salmon. It’s super healthy. It’s a reasonably sustainable harvest. I know that for canned salmon I can ignore the best by date, and it will be perfectly good 20+ years from now. I know it will be tradeable if I have a surplus. It therefore makes perfect sense to convert some savings that will probably evaporate via hyperinflation into canned salmon.

    You get the idea. You can apply this logic to many things and never a waste a penny no matter what happens.

    Have an Exit Plan

    What’s the worst that could happen? We could die a slow and painful death. We know this risk so make an exit plan and rest easy knowing the worst will never happen. I’ll exit painlessly on my terms thank you very much.

    Be Grateful and Mindful

    I love the story that Peter Ward, Nick Lane and Ajit Varki tell about the improbable miracle of our existence as a uniquely intelligent reality denying religious fire ape with an extended theory of mind built from improbable eukaryotic cells on a rare planet with abundant improbable fossil energy alive to experience a scant 10 out of 13.7 billion years of what may be the peak complexity that is possible in the universe.

    99.9% of people do not appreciate their place in the universe. Think of what they will have missed.

    Where else would you want to be?

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

    1. Thank you Rob for this personal life-affirming statement. I feel very humbled and privileged to get to know you better through your own words as testament to your life philosophy and goals. You are walking your talk and laying cairns along the way for others to contemplate their own path. This blog is your labour of love and on-going gift to fellow humans who have found their way here (from all around the globe!) for validation and solace through these seminal times. What a credit to you and a boon for all of us. Bless you and may we all walk on together as far as we can. This is our time, our place, and we will see it through with courage and grace.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    2. Brilliant Rob. Thanks for sharing this. And thanks for holding this space for the wonderful overshoot aware thinkers and doers who visit and enrich my journey with their clever apeness. I’m on the look out for Salomon boots right now and while my wife would probably roll her eyes at. me, I love your spreadsheeting 😉

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    3. Rob,
      You said:
      “I love the story that Peter Ward, Nick Lane and Ajit Varki tell about the improbable miracle of our existence as a uniquely intelligent reality denying religious fire ape with an extended theory of mind built from improbable eukaryotic cells on a rare planet with abundant improbable fossil energy alive to experience a scant 10 out of 13.7 billion years of what may be the peak complexity that is possible in the universe.”

      I’m grateful to be alive at this time. BUT I AM PISSED OFF that we as a species couldn’t rise above our evolutionary programing and change our fate!!!

      Additionally, I envy you in that I would rather be alone most of the time with my thoughts than with others who do not see any of the reality around them (and would rather be in the Matrix of society).

      The salmon is a good tip, I will buy some soon.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I get really pissed off too. Especially with aware experts who blah blah blah with impressive sounding arguments about why they don’t publicly support population reduction policies. You can forgive the typical citizen that doesn’t have a clue what’s going on. There’s no forgiveness for the aware.

        Like

        Reply

  6. Thank you for sharing this post by Marromai from Germany. There is some solace to be found in studying historical and ancient cycles, because it brings an understanding that what is happening right now is cyclic and it has happened before.

    It is not the end of the world, because after a major decline there is again renewed growth, but that only happens after centralization collapses into decentralization. The world is in peak-centralization right now, probably in the last 10 years of it, before a major contraction is bound to lead to a fracturing process. So it’s the end of empire, is that such a bad thing? [I have illustrated that in my latest essay].

    The entire world is in a crisis because ‘the empire of globalization’ is in a crisis. That empire has been built on drawing on the resources of the entire world. The fact that fossil fuels are starting to run low now means that the empire of globalisation is not sustainable enymore at such a large scale.

    The world is going to face a very unstable time ahead, but everything has purpose – and we all have a role to play as individuals during this time. Being open to the spiritual side of things brings understanding of what we are facing and what we can do (my research writing on these matters brings me some inner-peace, which I then try to share with others). Unfortunately a lot of people consider spirituality or metaphysics as ‘woo-woo’ so they miss out.

    The view from the peripheries of empire, is not necesarily the same as the view from within the centres of it (such as in Germany, the U.K. or the USA) and the entire world will not be experiencing the crisis in exactly the same manner everywhere.

    The view from Africa is not the same as they view from Europe, but in Africa it is clear that there’s a new cold war, because the big powers are now competing for resources once again just like the old cold war (Groundhog Day indeed), so that’s what Africans have to contend with.

    In South Africa we have to decomission our coal power plants while Germany has increased it’s coal imports from us and are now continuing to use coal power plants (and this is not seen as unethical at all …). This means that we are facing a crisis because Germany is in one, but it’s made even worse because of double-standards.

    The Mayans believed that at the end of a Great Cycle humans become self-destructive for no reason and they end up destroying themselves, so then only a remnant survives. It’s rather clear that this is happening in some places right now – but this too is cyclic – it will pass, but we can mitigte it by becoming aware of our behaviour.

    Thank you for allowing me to share my thoughts. Best wishes from a position in the Global South between East and West.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    2. “it will pass, but we can mitigte it by becoming aware of our behaviour.”

      Isn’t the whole premise of this site that we, as a species, will not be able to become aware and but rather remain in denial because it’s in our genes?

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. We can become aware on an individual basis. Personally I don’t have so little faith in humanity as to believe humanity as a species is a lost cause – in that sense I must be an idealist otherwise I would never have spent so much time writing essays that’s meant to “bring/raise consciosuness”. Why would I bother if I thought all hope was lost? It all comes down to perception.

        My closing remarks in my most recent essay – Humanity at a Turning Point:

        “Centralized and decentralized views both have their blind spots and an attempt has been made in this chapter to illustrate some of them. In a more general sense, all people have a number of blind spots, since no human is able to factor in all information. Moreover, humans suffer from various biases, prejudices, forms of ignorance, misguided ideologies and types of cognitive dissonance. These limitations are not insurmountable, and seeking out the truth for its own sake can be a powerful method of overcoming them.

        Although there has been a lot of talk about raising consciousness in recent years, in practice, it entails individuals actively seeking out the truth for themselves. Elevating truth above all else opens up areas of inquiry that would otherwise be outside a person’s usual spectrum of consideration. In that way one’s comprehension of problems and issues can be positively enhanced and enriched, which can then be offered in service to humanity. Although it can be a lot of work – and is by no means foolproof – such an approach is well worth the effort as it could benefit humanity in Navigating The Greatest Shift”.

        Like

        Reply

    3. I agree with some of what you have said about the fall of civilizations having occurred before. BUT I disagree with much of your tenor. We are at the peak of technological civilization brought about by our use in the last 200 years of millions of years of stored solar energy (fossil fuels). We have used that energy to grow the human population to 8 billion and have allowed a certain subset to live lavish lifestyles. We have also used that time/energy to understand the physical universe in stunning detail from the Big Bang to the human brain. Alas that is coming to an end that will not be as easy as the collapse of any past civilizations. When the lights go out because complex system break (as they are starting to do) we will be back in the paleolithic – if we are lucky. If Western elites have their way we will be left with many nuclear plants in meltdown and vast areas of the planet contaminated with radioactive waste for thousands of years. And that’s if we are lucky to avoid extinction. So, it doesn’t matter if you are in the Global South, Middle or North – no country or people will be spared. The best we could have hoped was to limit the population 50 years ago and make a more equitable distribution of our fossil wealth.
      There is no bright morning coming, no way now to mitigate this. Collapse is where we are headed.
      Sorry to be so pessimistic but optimism is hopium mixed with denial.
      The only purpose in the universe is entropy/Second Law of Thermodynamics – we have done our job we as a civilization have increased the entropy by dissipating all that fossil energy.
      AJ

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

        1. I fully understand your point of view and I do not disagree with it entirely. However, people in rich nations who expect and demand very high standards in everything, high level comforts, a lot of convenience, almost instant everything and the best possible quality of life, will have a much harder time psycholigally in adjusting or coming to terms with the collapse. In that sense people in poorer nations will be somewhat better off. It’s still too early in the day to know how it will unravel in different places – time will tell and we all have front row seats on the Titanic. Our deck chairs are just situated on different parts of the deck.

          Like

          Reply

          1. I agree. If I had complete freedom to move anywhere it would be somewhere in the Global South that was not too hot yet. If collapse happens without nuclear holocaust then there might be some time for you to adjust as the fall is not as far as ours. If the Nukes fly it’s “On the beach” for you too. It was a great old movie.
            AJ

            Liked by 2 people

            Reply

  7. One of the most interesting documentary producers, Adam Curtis, just released a new 7-part series.

    Russia 1985-1999: TraumaZone

    What it felt like to live through the collapse of Communism – and Democracy.

    Adam Curtis’ immersive history takes you through Russian society as it lived through a cataclysm that wrecked the lives of millions of people and tore apart the foundations of the whole society. What the Russians lived through in the 1990s was not just the end of communism, but the failure of democracy too. They experienced the collapse of the two great ideologies of our time in a period of less than ten years.

    By 1999 the word democracy was used as a curse. A curse against your enemies.

    It is out of that rage, the violence, the desperation and the overwhelming corruption that Vladimir Putin emerged.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. Riveting, Rob. I am limiting myself to watching one episode per day lest I turn into a catatonic zombie binging on all 7 hours of this intimate portrait of the FUBAR that was the Soviet Union. And all the while, I am hyperaware that the reels of time are recording our collective global collapse just as surely. The genius of the producer is in the details, ones that he allows us to witness as flies on the wall looking through human eyes and feeling. All judgment and meaning reside completely with the viewer, and it was impossible for my reasoning and emotional mind not to be fully engaged as I was swept up by the living drama of both the mundane and revolutionary. I found myself simultaneously recalling what I was doing and thinking at the time of the clips (I was in my university years in the States and only just waking up to the idea of being a global citizen in the wealthiest nation–it might as well have been another universe), and startlingly being able to identify with the angst, ennui, and desperation of the subjects in the doco, the watching both wearied and enlivened me.

      All geopolitical and psychosocial stories make up the continuity of humanity’s fabric and now in our time of unravelling we will see just how much we are all interwoven. This is the task before us, to bear witness and reap what was sown.

      Thank you for introducing me to Adam Curtis’ work (not having television for over 25 years has its consequences). I am very motivated to watch his other productions; it will be interesting to see my reaction through my particular lens filter of overshoot awareness.

      Like

      Reply

      1. This is the first documentary that Adam Curtis simply let historic video clips speak for themselves. Usually, he narrates his theory for why something happened in history. I don’t always agree with him because he seems blind to energy and overshoot, but he’s always thought provoking and he’s excellent at pointing out behavioral trends that we sometimes miss swimming among them. He has produced many documentaries for the BBC over the last 20 years. I have all of them and can make available to you if you want one.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Curtis

        Like

        Reply

        1. Thank you Rob for your generous offer of sharing from your impressive vault of media articles. You’ve built an ark! For the moment I’ve got more than enough to go on from all the on the pulse videos and podcasts curated here. Just one more thing–your mention of Columbo brought back happy memories as that was a show that my father and I enjoyed watching together on our black and white TV in the early/mid 80s. Those were giddy, halcyon days indeed when it seemed anything could be possible, even though the seeds of our current predicament were already long sown. Just like we already knew the murder culprit from the beginning in the Columbo episodes, we know we are responsible for our crisis, there is nothing to hide behind. It only remains to be seen how the final denouement unfolds.

          Like

          Reply

  9. Updating and reposting a previous comment…

    24-Sep-2022
    We can now be sure food inflation is here to stay.

    I’ve been watching Campbell’s chunky soup steadily increase in price from $2.00 to $2.50 (25%) per can over the last year. Today they held the price at $2.50 and reduced the can size from 540 mL to 515 mL (another 5% price increase). That’s 30% in one year.

    They must be desperate. The 540 mL can has not changed for more than 40 years.

    22-Oct-2022
    Today they increased the price of the new smaller 515ml can from $2.50 to $3.49.

    That’s an 83% increase in one year.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. The price of canned soup seems to be hunting for a stable position. A couple of weeks ago, our local grocery store had Progresso marked down from something like $4.50/can to $1.25/can (with coupon discount and customer-loyalty card). Then it’s back up to $3.50. The “work-from-home crowd” may have bid up the price of soup for lunch, comparing it against what they expected to pay for a lunch, but the rest of us just won’t pay that much. At $1.25/can, though, we stocked up. A half-finished partition wall in my basement now has shelves between the exposed studs: the Great Wall of Soup.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  10. Not a fan of the “just go with it, do the best you can, there is nothing we can do , live for your own purpose, focus on the here and now, etc”. That is exactly how we got where we are now.

    I say ” talk all about it at every opportunity, speak loud and speak over people, get aggressive and in peoples face, don’t accept other peoples public statments about how things will work out and be fine,
    correct everyone when they deny the realities of resource loss and biosphere destruction, call out all the lies…..In other words be a royal pain in the ass for everyone and force them to consider the fact that we might just be Phucked….HELLOELOELOELOELO!

    What the hell do you have to lose?

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  11. Another collapse prep that makes me feel good is improving my cooking skills. I especially like delicious recipes made with a few simple ingredients. Post collapse we should expect fewer non-local and exotic ingredients, and fewer ready-to-eat foods.

    I’ve been seeking a good dessert recipe for using aging fruit in my freezer. I’ve tried various crumbles but was not impressed. I recently found and refined the perfect recipe for me.

    Plum Clafouti

    Makes 4 servings.

    Preheat oven to 375F.

    Prepare 7″ round and deep casserole dish:
    – butter bottom and sides
    – sprinkle 1 tbsp brown (or 2 tsp white) sugar on bottom

    Prepare fruit:
    – cut about 20 frozen plum halves each into 4 pieces and place on a plate to thaw
    – microwave about 90 seconds if in hurry
    – drain off excess liquid
    – transfer plums to casserole dish and spread out evenly
    – sprinkle 2 tbsp brown (or 4 tsp white) sugar on plums

    Prepare batter in medium bowl:
    – whisk until mixed:
    ○ 2 eggs
    ○ 2 tbsp white sugar
    ○ pinch salt
    – add and whisk until smooth:
    ○ 1/3 c flour
    – add and whisk until mixed:
    ○ 1/4 tsp cinnamon
    ○ 1 1/2 tsp vanilla
    – add and whisk until smooth and aerated:
    ○ 1 c milk (I use half & half)

    Pour batter over fruit.

    Bake for 30 minutes at 375F until firm and lightly browned. Do not overcook.

    Let stand for 5 minutes before serving.

    Leftovers are excellent next day.

    You can substitute any fruit for the plums.

    Fans of Yorkshire pudding will notice this batter is identical with the addition of sugar/cinnamon/vanilla.

    Like

    Reply

  12. Some of you reading my tips on how to deal with overshoot awareness might be thinking that I’m in denial of the fact that no preps will be effective against what is likely coming.

    You may be right. Or not. There’s no way to know for sure how this will unfold.

    I was careful to qualify my tips by saying these are things that have helped me feel mentally and physically better.

    Feeling ok, and even happy from time to time, given what we know, is plenty good enough for me.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  14. Hello @ all,
    thanks for the constructive comments on my attempt, to put my feelings into an essay (my first one, btw).

    Its good to read, how others deal with their overshoot awareness and the resulting impact to one owns life.
    Although I don’t agree with Jef, that beeing the “prophet of doom” would be a good way, I have much respect for everyone who stands the headwind one will experience doing that. But what you can lose is your sanity, I think. “Don’t argue with fools – they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

    @Rob, thanks for publishing my article and also for your thoroughful approach on how to deal with the depression.
    Fun fact: I already play a musical instrument and have also distilled alcohol with my miniature destillery from time to time (more isn’t legal here in Germany). The more I realized, that there’s no bright future for all of us, the more passion I put into making music – sometimes I’m near tears, because of the beauty of being able to do that.

    In the blogosphere of us likeminded, I found an interesting link about the level of awareness. I guess all here can identify as “level 5 aware” and thereby represent only a fraction of about 0.01 % of humankind. It’s description of the two ways to deal with that awareness-level fits the contrast between Jefs approach and my personal opinion:
    http://www.paulchefurka.ca/LadderOfAwareness.html

    Best wishes for all of you and greetings from the pioneer of downfall, good old Europe,
    marromai

    Like

    Reply

    1. Thanks marromai.

      Paul Chefurka was one of the best overshoot bloggers. He dealt with his depression by stopping writing/thinking about overshoot and getting on with enjoying his life. Most people, me included, can’t seem to do that. We can’t unsee overshoot and it’s so important compared to every other issue that we can’t stop talking about it. Perhaps Chefurka’s Buddhism was helpful for escaping?

      I had a friend who recently died suddenly and unexpectedly while watching television. There was no autopsy, so we’ll never know the cause, but I have a theory. 😦 His hobby was making single malt scotch from 100% locally sourced ingredients including the peat used to smoke the malted barley. I helped him with a few batches. What I learned is that it is a hobby with infinite variables to tweak in search of perfection and the finished product will make you very popular with neighbors and so distilling alcohol is a great hobby to distract the mind from collapse. Plus, when the end is near, instead of watching Perry Mason episodes like me, you can get and stay drunk.

      Like

      Reply

    2. marromai, you might find Rick Beato’s YouTube channel on music interesting. He breaks down popular songs to explain how they were written and recorded. Beato also offers online music courses for playing by ear which is Beato’s claim to fame. He’s offering a deep discount on his complete bundle of courses until October 31. I just purchased it as an early Christmas gift for a family member that plays guitar.

      https://rickbeato.com/

      Like

      Reply

    3. marromai – I suppose I am unique in that Acting the way I describe above has been my saving grace, keeping me sane. I simply can not DENY, pretend, ignore, or whatever it is that people insist I need to do in order to “fit in”.

      What challenges my sanity is the fact that things can keep getting worse in every way and no one is even bothering to hide it anymore because no one cares. They simply gloss over it.

      Example; Inflation is the subject of the day. The problem is things keep getting more and more expensive and this is bad because the population can’t afford it and the economy suffers.

      What is the one and only solution that those in charge are talking about and doing? Removing money from the economy, driving down wages, reducing employment. All the top economist talk about this.

      So the solution to the population hurting from high prices is to take away their money, their earning capacity, and their jobs. I point this out to people all the time and they just say “oh well, I guess thats just how it needs to be.

      I sometimes feel as if I am in a bad dream.

      FYI – The “WEST” has been pulling this same kind of logic on the developing world for 50 years or more. Read – “Diary of an economic hitman”.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Thanks Rob, yes I saw that a while ago and thought it to be excellent. Simon’s reports are outstanding too. To see Simon in a less formal setting sharing lots of extra insights I can recommend this discussion in case you haven’t see it:

        Like

        Reply

        2. Agreed.
          This was a great analysis. One of the finest overall and someone not afraid to say that population is one of the problems.
          I thought his analysis of the geopolitical situation vis-a-vis the energy suppliers/users goes a long way to explaining one of the motivations for the Ukraine situation. Sadly, he didn’t go into the history of the U.S. trying to dominate the world for their own benefit.
          I also thought his bringing up the limits of energy supply and the limits that minerals have on going forward was spot on. He fairly demolished the Green New Deal for going forward.

          My two biggest complaints were that although he has a good prescription for civilization going forward:
          1. He doesn’t address the need to drastically reduce population even while we all become farmers (or most of us).
          AND 2. He doesn’t articulate or even state the extreme risk (as I see it) that the people in his Group 1 (those committed to BAU) or Group 2 (those going Viking??) (or was it another group #?) of utilizing nuclear weapons to either coerce/dominate the other groups to comply with their wishes or destroy everything. The biggest threat that I see.

          Otherwise, well worth the listen.
          AJ

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

    1. Colonel Black was scary. He is the first one I have heard that suggests the Dems/Biden are pushing a dirty bomb to help them with an “October Surprise” to scare people to vote Democratic. I realized some Republican talking heads (David Stockman, Pat Buchannan) and Republican representatives (Kevin McCarthy, Ted Cruz) have been saying we either don’t belong in a war with Russia or perhaps we should think twice about more funds for Ukraine. I never would have thought the Dems/Biden were so craven and crazy to use Nuclear brinkmanship to win an election without a thought (they don’t think) for the risk to either humanity or even their own constituents. But, Black may be right, never underestimate the stupidity and venality of those in power.
      AJ

      Like

      Reply

      1. Yes, very scary. They’ve already demonstrated how desperate they are by helping to blow up a pipeline owned by a close friend that is required for that friend’s survival.

        I respect the Russians for immediately getting on the phone and calling all the powerful countries to say they know what’s going on.

        Like

        Reply

  20. https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/10/confidence-through-censorship-the-medical-ministry-of-truth/

    I think I’ll go to the doctor in the future even less than I do now. I’ve been really pissed off lately and it’s not good for my health. Maybe I should take a lead out of Cherfurka’s book and zone out and take each day as it comes.
    What do you play marromai? My mother is a pianist and made a living from teaching the piano. A couple of years ago I got my keyboard out from our storage shed and turned my kids cubby house into a music room. I hadn’t played for so long that I’d forgotten how to read base clef. It’s been challenging but rewarding. It’s surprising how quickly the knowledge comes back. I try to play a couple hours each morning. I also play the whistle and play in a folk band once a fortnight. It’s good camaraderie.
    I went to Germany once on exchange. Stayed just out of Munich for a couple of months over winter 98/99. Enjoyed the Christmas markets and the gluwine.

    Like

    Reply

    1. I agree. Every doctor and nurse still working in the healthcare system should hang their heads in shame. They either supported stupidity and evil or did nothing to resist it. They have destroyed the credibility of their profession for at least a generation.

      I visited Heidelberg once on business around Christmas and fondly remember the outdoor Christmas market with hot mulled wine.

      Like

      Reply

    2. I play the “Flügelhorn” in a wind orchestra. I don’t know if there’s an english word for this instrument, it’s similar to a trumpet but with more volume and a softer tone. I learnt it in the local music club, in which I also enjoy the camaraderie since 26 years now (2/3 of my life). Those kind of music clubs are very common here in Southwest Germany, every village has its own. Heidelberg is just an hour away for me – thanks to fossil fuel, of course 😉
      We also bought an e-Piano recently for me and the kids to learn playing it. But making a living only with being a musician would be very tough – there are too many players in this field to compete. Luckily this doesn’t matter among the hobbyists, where making brass music connects people all across South Germany and Austria, as one could experience at the “Woodstock of Brass Music”.

      Like

      Reply

      2. Hi there Mike, hope all is going well for you and your family in the land of the long white cloud.

        When I first saw your comment about the seaweed in Rob’s photo, I immediately nodded in agreement that it would be nice to have access to this nutritive source but then I did a full stop in wondering why does everything we humans contemplate seem to hold meaning in its usefulness to us and our ability to take it? Why can we not just appreciate the seaweed as an integral part of the biosphere without our wanting to use it for our own purposes? Why can I not stop at just beauty before turning to questions of bounty and boon for myself? Can a tree just be a tree and not firewood or furniture? Can an animal live wild and free without our thinking of how it would taste or be worn? Have we lost that ability to just be and let be? Have we ever been able to do so as Homo sapiens, even in our earlier days when it seemed abundance would never end? Is it because we know our survival now is so redlined that we view every available resource as ours for the taking, and sooner and more the better? And if this way of first perceiving is now hardwired in us, then truly we will cut, mine, fish, burn until the last or our last, whichever comes first, and there will be no recourse until we figure out how can we get ourselves back into balance.

        And yes, this points to the critical need to understand, as Rob has been faithfully shouting from the mountaintop, the reasons why we are wired so and thus give us a fighting chance to undo and redo it, if we even can. I would like to err on the side of thinking we must believe we can, for we will live out our days one way or another and if there be a choice, this is what I am.

        Now I find myself thinking maybe it is good that I am not near a beach where this happens regularly, for I do not know if I would be able to stay my hand in the taking of what exists not only for my benefit. For if I deem it proper for me to take, then how can I begrudge all others for doing the same, until there is nothing left? We all carry the burden and therefore the responsibility. Oh, woe is me to hang here out of balance! The answer surely is much fewer of us to be tempted to view all of creation as our dominion, and living a much simplified life. The road to this is the longest and most difficult our species will take, for it requires an immediate U-turn taken at breakneck speed. Like Frodo before his mission to destroy the Ring, I would like to say in a still, small voice, I will take on my part in this, though I do not know the way.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Hi GG. That is food for thought (pardon the pun) and I do like to revel in nature when I come across it (less and less these days). I adore trees and, if fact, all other species. But, of course, like every other species, we can’t just “be and let be” because, for every species, life is a constant struggle for survival (sometimes less of a struggle than at other times) where every species has to consume some other species (or its waste – but not all species can survive on waste for, I hope, obvious reasons). We can admire nature as well as living within it. But humans, through tools and discovery of energy sources, have usurped that natural order by having a lot more time to contemplate other pursuits. And, a critical issue is that there are far too many of us; letting everyone do the same as we want (e.g. scavenging seaweed) may subvert natural cycling.

          This leads me to wonder if, somehow, we do make a U-turn, as a species, and so cease the use of our tools and energy discoveries, it would lead to devastation of the natural world even more quickly as 8 billion humans rampage through the remaining wildlife and vegetation to stay alive. Of course, humans won’t make that U-turn so collapse, assuming it happens in a stepped sort of way (similar to JMG’s catabolic collapse theory) or a long drawn out affair (as in JHK’s Long Emergency), will happen over a long period, limiting the damage that collapse will do. I hope so.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Hi Mike,
            Thank you for sharing those measured thoughts which go a long way to untangling (pun intended) our collective conundrum here as a highly dependent and destructive species. I am quite sobered by the idea that if we collapsed too quickly and without a fall-back plan in place both workable and governable, the ensuing rampage of our environment and concomitant human suffering would be unimaginable. Sometimes, the rip-off-the-bandage approach just doesn’t work too well, especially for a wound that is far from healing. So, like you, I sure hope that there is a tempered collapse scenario awaiting us, and if we count ourselves lucky, we’re already seeing and living it. Gently, gently, softly, softly. Even and especially into that good night.
            Have a good week, everyone. I am crossing fingers, toes, and eyes that the October Surprise will pass us by and the first week of November will also be uneventful. But I am not holding my breath, either.

            Like

            Reply

        2. I’m a little ashamed to admit this but here it is. I worked a few years on a farm here in the Comox Valley that long before my employment was one of the largest dairy operations in British Columbia back in the good old days when diesel was cheap enough that you could truck hay from Washington and Oregon states to Vancouver Island to feed your milk herd and still make a nice profit.

          When diesel became more expensive, they sold off the dairy herd and then tried various things including cranberries which I helped harvest. The old dairy operation left a huge unused two-story barn which was converted into a facility for drying and baling seaweed for export around the world to plants that extracted the carrageenan used to thicken our ice cream and facial cremes. I helped harvest seaweed from the beaches and ran the machinery back at the farm for drying and baling the seaweed. The business did not work out and they no longer do it.

          Sorry to report that I’m evil like everyone else.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Thank you for sharing that vignette of your past experience. Of course you are not evil Rob! All of us have left our footprints in the sand because that is the only way we Homo sapiens can live on this planet, given the time and space we are born into. We are but human beings trying to make sense of our being here. In this we all are like everyone else, and that is not a failing but a belonging. It is already a miracle that we can take responsibility for our mark on this earth and as the tide floods and ebbs, choose to create a different set of prints going forward. Rob, you have helped create more awareness of wonder for life as well as our collective burden than you may know, and that is something to honour, celebrate, and be thankful for.

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

          2. Gosh, no need to feel ashamed. I know of no-one who isn’t feeding the machine in some way. As a computer programmer, I’ve worked for many huge or prominent corporations. Though I didn’t know any better for most of that time, I certainly didn’t seek to extricate myself from the system, even if I didn’t enjoy it, it the end. Now I’m retired, I can be holier than thou and tell everyone else how evil they are!

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

    2. Lovely photo, Rob. The concentric sweeps of sand, seaweed, and waves are timeless and so soothing. I can just smell and taste the salt-sea air, and feel my bare feet on the sand. I am so happy for you that you can have these experiences at your doorstep. Thank you for sharing this infusion of joy; nature always knows how to touch us.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  22. Two hypersmart alpha males strutting their intellectual prowess with a mind-numbing stream of impressive words explaining the intractable complexity of our overshoot predicament yet being unable to discuss the only good path forward, population reduction, is strong evidence that Varki’s MORT is a valid theory.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Ooof, I think I’ll take a miss on this one then. There’s only so much word posturing that even I can take!

      Now re-watching Perry Mason or Columbo episodes sounds like a pleasant way to defrag after another day in denialworld! The only screen offerings I think I have watched multiple times and would not tire of are the LOTR trilogy. I remember thinking when the first instalment came out 21 years ago, I wished I could be granted at least another couple years of life to be able to see the rest, then I could die fulfilled in that fantasy sphere! So I suppose all the years since have been a bonus (and I do feel that very muchly, now it is every day that is a grateful addendum). A huge shout out to all you lucky inhabitants of Middle Earth there in NZ, what spectacular landscape you are blessed with! Also the music of these movies hold me in thrall. How much we have to hold in reverence, and how little we seem to know it!

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

        1. Hi Rob,
          I envy you the delight of watching that epic for the first time! Have you read the Tolkien books?
          In my opinion, the LOTR trilogy really is much more than a fantasy genre–the underlying themes are the warp and weft of our human story and being told through such a legend of a tale only seems to make the motifs more recognisable and moving. In addition to what I commented earlier about what I love about this masterpiece, the language is lyrical (I was going to say poetic but then again, I thought that might have put you off!) and lends itself to re-quoting for so many affecting situations (as I seem wont to do). And the special effects are just sit back and let it wash over you magic (I don’t think it is dated even now, 20 years later). Just for that technical accomplishment alone is worth the viewing, and sitting through all the credits to silently thank all those who did countless hours of mindless rendering sitting in front of a computer.
          Anyway, maybe you will decide to give the LOTR a go sometime before the SHTF!

          Like

          Reply

      2. Nikki and I have watched the trilogy (extended versions on DVD) probably 10 times since watching them all in the theatres. Also includes hours of the behind the scenes making of details and options for actor / producer commentaries while watching. It’s epic.

        We then added the Hobbit trilogy to the library although I do prefer the LOTR over the Hobbit series. I grew up on Tolkien after first listening to the BBC audio series on our Sunday Stories radio show here in NZ in the early 80s.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

          1. You go monk! Missed your comments for a few weeks here but so thrilled you’re back with two huge thumbs up for LOTR! Hope everything is going well for you in Middle Earth land (is there a Kiwi who isn’t a LOTR tragic?) It is just about time for my yearly re-watch of the trilogy, thanks to you and Campbell for building up the excitement! I think it’s high time that I re-read the books, too. They’re contenders for the three items for the desert island, and at this point of our history, it’s just about the same scenario. I mentioned the Fionavar Tapestry by Guy Gavriel Kay, have you read those? And I was recommended The Years of Salt and Rice by Kim Stanley Robinson as another great science fiction/fantasy read. I am planning to have plenty of reading material on hand for the foreseeable future and it’s great that I never tire of re-reading favourites. All the best to you and your family, good to see you here as always.

            Liked by 2 people

            Reply

            1. Thanks Gaia! I have been sick with covid; the rona finally got me LOL! I haven’t read your book recommendations; I will check them out for sure.
              I have a personal opinion that the Hobbit is a most excellent book, standalone from LOTR. Apparently it was much more subject to editors, and I think that shows. Here’s a funny story for ya: when I was a kid I was a bit sexist and just couldn’t read books about men/boys. If I got a certain way into a story and there were no women/girls, I would stop reading. No idea why! But the Hobbit was the first ‘all blokes’ book that I couldn’t stop reading. And after that I was like, you know what maybe I can read stories about boys after all! I was a weird kid for sure

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

              2. Hope you’re feeling better now monk, glad it’s getting warmer and sunnier for you and I’m sure your garden is the perfect place to recuperate. Your story about not liking books without female characters as a kid is interesting! Not weird at all, just discriminating taste! You know I find it really neat when a male author can write about girls/women in such a way that’s convincing, maybe that’s a sexist thought from me! I think we share such wonderful memories of children’s books, me being an only child books were really my constant companions and there’s just such a feeling of nostalgia now when I think about how much joy and comfort I got from books at a critical time of development. We’ve talked about the Little House on the Prairie series as being favourites (certainly girls there!) but my absolute favourite childhood read was the Prydain series by Lloyd Alexander, I still re-read the 5 books every couple years or so. If you like Welsh mythology and Tolkien, you’ll absolutely revel in them. Please, run, don’t walk, to get yourself a copy of these and get ready to immerse yourself in absolute wonder and bliss (you can probably read one book in an afternoon but take time to really savour it).

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

                1. Have you read any of Katherine Kerr’s books? She weaves in a lot of Celtic mythology. They are great books, quite dark and violent at times, but still good

                  Like

                  Reply

                  1. Thank you monk for that recommendation. I will look for copies of her books, I believe the first one I should read is Daggerspell? I can see myself getting into the fantasy genre now as a welcome escape from this version of the universe that is darker and more violent at times than any other in anyone’s imagination! More dystopian nightmare scenarios, I recently read Suzanne Collins’ The Hunger Games trilogy and really enjoyed it. I haven’t watched the movies yet but looking forward to seeing how they match up in my mind’s eye to the books. It’s always better for me to have read the books first before seeing the movie, and no matter how fantastic the film is as eye candy, I always prefer reading the story, how about you?

                    Liked by 1 person

                    Reply

                    1. Yes Daggerspell is first. The first 4 books are really good. I think a couple of the later ones weren’t quite as good, more of a slow burn, but still well written

                      Like

        3. Hi there Campbell and family, hope you’re having a great Spring and everything you’ve planted is really taking off. The black sapotes are finally ripe here and they are just so delicious mashed with a bit of coconut sugar and cinnamon. No wonder they call it chocolate pudding fruit! It shouldn’t be too many years before your trees start to bear.

          It is a real joy to hear that you’re a LOTR fan and thank you for sharing the link to the audio series, that is the only format I haven’t enjoyed yet for this epic. I, too, grew up on reading the books (we’re the same age) and every thing since in fantasy for me will always be a derivative of that trilogy (although I haven’t read extensively in that genre, the Fionavar Tapestry trilogy by Guy Gavriel Kay was enjoyable) We even have a board game of LOTR!

          Isn’t it great that we’ve convinced Rob to delve into Middle Earth? I think it’s the perfect hideaway from our Earth’s troubles, and maybe we’ll even find an answer or two in the wisdom of this other universe. I think the life of the Hobbits is a good start for the Great Simplification!

          All the best to you and your family. Always so good to see (read) you here. Namaste.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

          1. Hi Gaia. A warm wet couple of weeks here has certainly kicked off the spring growth in the food forest plantings. I’m racing to keep up with chopping and dropping to give maximum spring sunlight to the fruit trees.

            I think I planted the black sapote trees a little early (end of September) as we had a few near frost nights in early October which seems to have set them back a wee bit. Too eager I was.

            It’s fun seeing the LOTR banter and yes we have the board game too. I do hope that Rob finds a version of the books he likes. Definitely a must to read / listen to them before watching the movies. Tolkien set off a passion for fantasy fiction in my teens. Other authors I enjoyed were Terry Brooks and David Eddings. My brother was an extreme reader of fantasy and science fiction. He had Guy Gavriel in his library but I never got around to reading anything from him.

            I always enjoy reading your contributions here but don’t get too much time to respond. Happy gardening and namaste from NZ.

            Like

            Reply

            1. Thank you Campbell for your lovely and uplifting message, I know how busy you are because the same mad growth is happening here! I feel very heartened just to know you, Nikki and the boys are finding your days very fulfilling creating your abundant homestead. I’ll probably be off-line in responses myself for a little while because we’re about to do a final wrap-up couple weeks here in Far North QLD and then I’m returning home to our property in Tasmania after 6 months away and you can only imagine the work awaiting me there! But also hopefully lots of fruit, too. Crossing fingers that this year will be a better cherry season, our wet Springs these past couple years have really affected pollination and caused lots of fruit rot. And we’re not seeing as many European bees, instead the bumble bees seem to have taken over, and I’m not sure that’s a good thing as they don’t seem to pollinate the same type of flowers (maybe too big to approach them?)

              It’s so nice that we can all check in here on Rob’s page for a bit of re-balancing in so many areas of our varied yet connected lives.

              Namaste and see you again here soon.

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

    1. I note that Hedges adopted the common meme of “will Putin respond to defeat and humiliation with a nuclear attack?”.

      I’m much more worried about how Europe will respond to collapse of their industrial economies without Russian energy, and when Russia achieves its objectives of de-militarizing, de-natzifying, and protecting Russian speaking people in Ukraine.

      It’s a mystery to me what goes on inside the heads of the war hawks.

      Are they incapable of understanding how the US would respond to Russian weapons on the Mexican border?

      Are they incapable of seeing the risks of escalation to their own families?

      Like

      Reply

      1. PBS Frontline, which once upon a time was a standard for good journalism, dials up the tension:

        FRONTLINE and The Associated Press go inside Russia’s war on Ukraine, tracing a pattern of atrocities committed by Russian troops with a focus on the Kyiv suburbs, such as Bucha, where some of the most shocking carnage was found.

        From award-winning director Tom Jennings, producer Annie Wong, AP global investigative reporter Erika Kinetz and her AP colleagues, the joint documentary draws on exclusive original footage, as well as interviews with Ukrainian citizens and prosecutors, top government officials and international war crimes experts.

        FRONTLINE and the AP uncover exclusive and harrowing evidence that links possible war crimes in Bucha through the chain of command to one of Russia’s top generals — evidence that prosecutors hope might help build a case against Russian President Vladimir Putin in court. But the joint investigation also explores the challenges of trying to hold Putin and other Russian leaders to account.

        Like

        Reply

  25. Dr. John Campbell continues his U-turn today.

    Our health experts provided bad advice to political leaders by overstating the severity of covid by 10x. Only an amateur or someone with an agenda other than public health could make such an obvious error.

    Like

    Reply

  26. Having read Bright Green Lies, it seems to be that, in some ways, so-called renewables can be more polluting than fossil fuels. This notion seemed bolstered by the work of Simon Michaux and even data from the IEA, which demonstrates to vast minerals footprint of renewables – how could the mining and refining of those minerals possibly be less polluting than, at least, conventional oil and gas extraction and refining?

    Of course we need to drastically reduce our emissions of GHGs which are causing the rapid warming that humans and have never experienced before, and attendant weather extremes. But even if renewables could replace fossil fuel energy (a hypothetical that flies in the face of minerals depletion) such substitution would wreak enormous damage on our only habitat.

    However, apart from work like Simon Michaux’s, I haven’t been able to find a study that examines the pollution issue in a comprehensive and independent way. Has anyone come across such a study? I’d like to be able to reference something rather than just stating an opinion.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Step back for a moment and reflect on Michaux’s presentation.

      Hundreds of governments, thousands of universities, companies, and environmental organizations, and millions of people have been working towards a green energy transition for 20+ years.

      One guy, Michaux, spots some obvious unpleasant questions everyone has denied, does some research for a few months drawing on readily available official data, and shows that a BAU energy transition is not feasible by two or more ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE.

      Think of the trillions and precious resources that have been wasted on a dead end. That’s not a small mistake.

      Do you see why Varki’s MORT is so important?

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      1. My sister just told me she is considering buying an electric car. Now I have talked to her ad naseum about the realities of “renewable” energy and coal burning….oops I mean EVs but she said that everyone she talks to says that they are the future and that she should just get one. Drives me nutz!

        I told her “it is the future, and the future looks pretty damn bleak”.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

          1. The current vehicle I’m driving is a 20 year old Mitsubishi Starwagon van with 320k on the clock which I bought from a backpacker who got it from a backpacker hostel here in Far North Queensland. I’ve slept in it, hauled tons of stuff in it, and it’s been a faithful steed although a bit thirsty with the petrol. But the main claim to fame is that the van was painted with stars, vines, hearts, the sun, and a very relaxed guy with a book reclining in a hammock (as advertising for the youth hostel, I am assuming) so I’ve nicknamed it the Happy (hippy) Van. It has generated more smiles and conversations with strangers than I can count. So I’m having plenty of fun and status of a kind with a very much loved and used piece of machinery which I hope will last until driving won’t be feasible anymore. And being so decorated is the best insurance policy (not that I’m worried someone will take it)!

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

      2. Yes, MORT is an important hypothesis and does explain a lot. But I was after a reference for my hypothesis that, in some ways, some renewable energies are more polluting that fossil fuels.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Yes, sorry, I should have said I couldn’t think of a reference.

          Your hypothesis I think is very strong based on first principles. Renewable energies (except hydro) are much less dense and so the machines needed to capture them must be more numerous and require more land for the same energy produced. Renewables thus require more energy and materials to manufacture, install, maintain, and interconnect them for the same energy produced, and since the lifetime of renewable machines is only about 20 years, they do not operate long enough to offset the combustion pollutants of fossil energy machines.

          Like

          Reply

  28. Few comedies make me laugh these dire days but this new documentary from the BBC made me laugh out loud several times. Highly recommended. It’s available at all the usual download sites.

    The Love Box in Your Living Room

    Taking inspiration from documentary maker Adam Curtis, Harry Enfield and Paul Whitehouse tell the true story of Britain’s political and social evolution over the last century through the life of the BBC. By turning complete fictions into a staggering array of hard facts, they reveal details about the BBC that have been buried for decades.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001dk9y

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/oct/27/the-love-box-in-your-living-room-review-spectacular-silliness-from-harry-enfield-and-paul-whitehouse

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt19781254/?ref_=ttfc_fc_tt

    Like

    Reply

  29. It occurs to me that denial of reality is evident in both sides of the climate “debate.” On one side, many (even most) deny (either explicitly or implicitly) that the change is even happening, at least on a scale that is relevant to us. On the other side, there are many who say there is hope, even though no discernible actions have been taken by humans.

    Meanwhile, a group of scientists say that half of the Earth’s vital signs are in code red: https://www.sciencealert.com/almost-half-of-earths-vital-signs-are-now-code-red-scientists-warn (but “there is still hope” in that “an unprecedented numbers of scientists are speaking out about the climate crisis”). We can always hope, I suppose.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  30. Super interesting video on how those huge circular irrigation systems work. Notice how unsustainable industrial agriculture is. Doubly so when you consider that many of these are fed from non-renewable aquifers.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Thanks for sharing this super stupefying video. Back to the garden with my little watering can pretending everything is hunky dory and will stay that way. And you thought LOTR was a fantasy story…

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  31. Just when I needed a pick-me-up, I came across this equally stupefying, but in the most uplifting way, piece about an awesome algae that’s made up of a single cell. Nothing stuns like nature. And to think that it was millions of years of these types of organisms that brought us to our peak and impending doom today–let us pay homage to the all-powerful algae!

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/31/discovered-in-the-deep-the-mermaids-wineglass-algae-acetabularia-jalakanyakae

    Like

    Reply

  33. Just discovered the singer Erykah Badu. Might make you smile. It did for me.

    The incredible thing about this song is that Erkyah said in an interview that she improvised (made up) the whole song on the spot, in front of this huge audience and she did it, in one shot. That fact that the band kept on beat with a steady melody and the background singers harmonized to a song they’d never heard is pure talent. What’s also commendably extraordinary, is that the background singers instinctively knew to add their parts of ” Call Him”, “Come On Come On come on” while doing it on key and in unison. That is amazing.

    Like

    Reply

  34. Ivor Cummins, who has done some good work on covid data analysis but is also overshoot blind, posted this talk summarizing the evidence that there is a conspiracy to achieve a new global world order.

    Best talk I’ve ever seen on the history of WEF, Rockefeller, and all the institutions which have corrupted our world. This one needs to be shared with maximum prejudice , as it fully explains Covid19, the Climate Change Agenda, and so much more. A catastrophic loss of our freedoms will occur unless the people understand what is happening, and WHY.

    I don’t recommend you watch the whole thing, just a few minutes to get the flavor.

    It’s an excellent example of why we are so screwed.

    To minimize the coming suffering caused by overshoot collapse (peak oil, climate change, debt defaults, etc.) we really do need global cooperation with authority to enforce painful policies like population reduction, rationing, wealth redistribution, etc.

    Groups like the WEF that are trying to make progress on global overshoot mitigation are unable to state plainly their true objectives because that would cause a panic, so they state suspiciously wonky goals like a 4th industrial revolution.

    Any bright person that also denies overshoot, like Cummins, looks at what these organizations say are their objectives and concludes correctly, that they are lying, and concludes incorrectly, that they have evil intent.

    What a mess.

    I think we need leaders to speak plainly about what must be done and why. There may be some negative consequences from a temporary panic, but the alternate path we are on is worse.

    https://rumble.com/v1p0yhd-why-covid-and-climate-ruined-our-world-the-full-explanation.html

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. I felt exactly the same when I watched the start of this video thinking this crowd might be overshoot and resource depletion aware but….. no. It’s a WEF conspiracy. Don’t watch it 🙁

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    2. I feel uncomfortable with the statement that “Groups like the WEF are trying to make progress on global overshoot mitigation”. What makes you think that is the case?
      I am not saying there is a conspiracy in order to achieve XYZ. I rather believe these groups are just doing their business as usual. Which, to my understanding, is simply to acquire even more wealth and power. I believe they may be happy with a degraded world of suffering for most, as long as they are the lords.
      Do they even understand the gravity of the current human predicament? I don’t think they consider the fact that the human species is currently under existential threat (by refusing to be a sane player among the living).

      At the top of the human material pyramid, aren’t there only useful servile idiots and supra-intelligent, selfish psychopath? I mean, isn’t the whole purpose of the pyramid to select for these traits?

      Like

      Reply

      1. There’s a good chance you’re right Charles. My guess is there’s a better chance that there are elements of truth in what we’re both saying. Very hard to know for sure without being an insider since their stated objectives are clearly smoke screens.

        My belief stems from a few observations.

        1) Many of our leaders are I’m sure genuinely concerned about climate change and the zero progress we’ve made towards reducing its threat. Many must know that a coordinated global response is required.

        2) One of the behind-the-scenes power players is Mark Carney, ex-head of the Canada and UK central banks. I’ve read some of his thoughts and I think he is a good man worried about the future of our species.

        3) Another key player is Bill Gates. I know he is peak oil aware and is very worried. He’s put some of his own money into high-risk energy investments that have not paid off. I also suspect he is concerned about over-population and decided the best way to address this was to improve health care in the poor nations. Gates clearly has some Jekyll with his Hyde so I’m not saying he and other player are clean of evil.

        I’m just saying that most people, myself included, can be good and evil at the same time.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

      2. Charles – One thing I am certain of is that the ones in control, or at least they have whatever control is possible, have the very best information available on the planet. I am not talking about any of those that you see and hear in the news or on the internet. I am talking about those who tell those people what to do. This is not conspiracy as many have dug deep and exposed them.

        These people are ridiculously wealthy and have very long established connection to the mechanisms of power. Everyone thinks Blackrock has power but the people I am talking about are the major shareholders of Blackrock and many other firms like them and they tell Blackrock what to do.

        There are a crazy amount of wealthy people who make a million dollars A DAY! Many make more than that. Buying someone off for a million dollars for them is like stopping off at starbucks for us. They literally have so much money that the problem then becomes how and where to spend it.

        What they want most of all is a world where they and their progeny can continue to live as gods among men on and right now that is being threatened from multiple sides.

        Like

        Reply

        1. That’s a good insight Jef. Everyone paying attention is feeling threatened right now.

          What would a person with near infinite wealth do if worried about the survival of their children?

          Like

          Reply

        2. Hello Jef, thank you for this insight.
          Aren’t the ones with the most control, also the most in a race against entropy, constantly battling their competitors and the ambitious ones just below them?

          I agree with the fact that they have the best information available. Despite all this information they seem to be unable to understand the gravity of the situation (or act adequately). Or more precisely, I should probably rather say: they haven’t been able to understand the gravity of the situation in time. Otherwise, wouldn’t we be in a totally different place today?

          Aren’t the measure put in place now, late and inadequate (there is still no willingness to relinquish any ounce of power) measures of desperation? And how far does this goes? Are you implying a planned depopulation is in the realm of possibilities?
          If this is the case, isn’t it too late, too dangerous a plan? Isn’t it already chess-mate for the current civilization? There are so many processes running with inertia (climate change, toxic material accumulation, destruction of habitats and of diverse living beings, genetic material pollution…).

          Maybe I am wrong on this, but the way I see it, inequality of power seems to me incompatible with long-term survival. (My rational being that the natural world is all about a myriad of beings each doing its own little thing, optimizing the use of a portion of the energy flowing from the sun while cooperating to the whole)
          So, in the long term aren’t they playing a losing game anyway?

          Like

          Reply

          1. Charles – The opposite is true wrt what I call the “owners”. They are not so much in competition with each other as they are working for the same purpose. Without even having to meet in secret locations and “conspire” they simply have the same interests and therefor end up pushing for and implementing the same goals.

            Obviously they can not operate out in the open nor let their true agenda be understood.

            First and foremost they understand that the world is finite and the existing supersystem that all civilization is organised under requires infinite growth. They also understand that there are limits as to what they can control. If they do the wrong thing then they might lose all control or they might end up creating a world not worth living in.

            IMO they wrongfully believe that they can’t just launch a massive global education process explaining the basic physical realities facing the planet then call on the global population to stop all of what they are doing, focus all energy and efforts on making sure everyone on the planet has a home, food, clothing, internet, education, health care. 75% of human activity is BS that doesn’t need to happen, wastes massive amounts of energy and generates ungodly amounts of waste.

            Everyone would breath a great collective sigh of relief to no longer be forced to live lives of quiet desperation. I saw a glimpse of it during the C19 lockdowns. People were actually relieved to have a break from the monotony. Also almost everyone started to focus on and deeply enjoying growing things.

            Problem is no one can be morbidly wealthy so…..fuk that!

            Like

            Reply

            1. Thank you for your answer.
              Whatever the actions of the “owners”, I find there are currently not many (if any) incentives from the super-structure towards the individuals so that behaviour that is positive for the survival of the species is rewarded.
              Well, in a way, it is a good thing 75% of human activity is BS. Maybe this gives us some buffer.
              Anyway, let’s do our own thing and see how this unfolds: who lives sees.

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

  36. Really good essay today by Dr. David Bell on the big lie we are living in. He calls on health professionals to stand up and speak the truth.

    David Bell, Senior Scholar at Brownstone Institute, is a public health physician and biotech consultant in global health. He is the former Program Head for malaria and febrile diseases at the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) in Geneva, Switzerland.

    COVID-19 opened the way for a much sought-after pandemic future. The new public health response trialed with this outbreak was far more attractive to investors with its centralization, and commoditization with vast opportunities for future growth. The excellent COVID-19 wealth shifts from the masses to the few have justified decades of patient investment in public-private partnerships that have broken down the arms-length approach global health once had with conflicted corporate interests.

    Truth was the only persistent obstacle to corporatizing and monetizing global public health, but COVID-19 proved that this impediment to progress can be expunged through consistent lying and vilification of truth-tellers backed by a well-managed behavioral psychology campaign. This pandemic response provided a template not only for vastly-increased corporate income, but for job certainty and expansion of opportunity for the army of mostly-Western bureaucrats and health professionals filling the offices, meeting rooms and business-class seats of its implementing organizations. COVID-19 made corporate colonialism respectable again.

    Whilst growing their industry’s finances, public health professionals are degrading themselves and betraying society. The betrayal, based on incessant lying, is something for which they will inevitably face consequences. In our lying, we have betrayed our constituency, as we did previously over eugenics and forced sterilization. It is a poor record and one to be ashamed of. Eventually, even the most dedicated followers will begin to question the sense of putting on a mask at a restaurant door only to remove it 10 steps later, or vaccinating vast populations against a disease to which they are already immune whilst they die of other readily preventable diseases.

    The way out of this is simply to refuse to lie, or to cover for the lies of others. This may seem self-evident, but clearly it is not. The relatively high salaries and public esteem that health professions have experienced may make it harder to step away, but truth will catch up, one day, to those that don’t. Cults eventually decay as leaders become drunk on power and the most dedicated devotees struggle to remain obsequious. It is far better to leave early and live with dignity.

    https://brownstone.org/articles/global-health-and-the-art-of-really-big-lies/

    Like

    Reply

  37. Has anyone seen any trustworthy data or analysis on the percentage of vaccinated people with long covid vs. the percentage of unvaccinated people with long covid?

    Has anyone seen any intelligent discussion on whether long covid is caused by the disease or the vaccine?

    Like

    Reply

    1. It would be interesting to see vax vs unvaxed.

      It is my understanding that long covid is a side effect that some/many get because they have not been treated. This is a point that many of the doctors who stand up for early treatment using all of the different protocols. Those who have tested positive, for almost 3 years now, are not treated. They are told to just wait until they absolutely must go to the hospital. This allows the virus to its dirty deeds and cause the harm that may last forever in some.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Thanks. There’s a group that believes long covid is a serious threat to society and that the Chinese understand this threat and are playing to win the long game by locking down hard for zero covid.

        I don’t have an opinion yet although I do think the Chinese leaders are less stupid than our leaders and so I’ve wondered what the real reason for their zero covid policies are. Could be an energy conservation strategy.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Yes, I have been trying to figure out the zero covid thing for a while now. It just doesn’t make any sense because there is simply no hiding from a virus. I think it might be more about getting the people use to lockdowns and such for future control. Same in the West.

          Like

          Reply

        2. I really do think that the Chinese economy is in big trouble. They use the Covid controls to stop people protesting, ransacking the banks etc. But so hard to know the truth with China since we can never believe what we see and hear from them

          Like

          Reply

  38. Top EU commissioner calls for ‘no taboos’ review of 2035 car ban

    To produce all those electric cars to replace traditional ones, “we will need 15 times more lithium by 2030, four times more cobalt, four times more graphite, three times more nickel,” Breton said. “So we will have an enormous consumption of raw materials, and we need to study all this.”

    So you’re telling me that nobody studied this topic before???
    All these great plans, energy transition fairy tales and nobody checked the resource availability? Nah… you’re joking? Who are you? Where are the engineers?

    Looks like these guys started to read Simon 😉 a little late.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/breton-says-u-turn-on-eus-2035-car-engine-ban-isnt-taboo/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    2. I’ve never seen any mention of the resource requirement, and whether it could be met, in any study or article about “the transition” (apart from Simon Michaux’s and one other recently whose name escapes me). It’s good to see a little bit of realisation creeping in but they need that review now, not in 2026.

      Like

      Reply

        2. Very good, monk. But, no, it wasn’t him. I like his calculations but he didn’t really mention the materials needed though one might guess that it would be a huge mining requirement, as well as a huge area, plus the mining uses area (might be a good calculation to add the area needed for mining and refining.

          I remembered the guy. It is Mark P Mills but he appears to be a climate denier so maybe that’s why I forgot his name. His message seems to be a bit all over the place. According to him the transition to renewables would lead to a huge increase in mining, which would have huge environmental consequences but he also sees it as a big economic opportunity for the US.

          However, with a climate denier and (I assume) someone who accepts the climate science both pointing out the materials problem with the renewables transition, maybe there is some common ground to stop seeking a mythical clean green solution.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

  40. I continue to wonder if the belief that central banks control the interest rate is a myth.

    Imagine some calamity curtails production and employment. In response, governments borrow a gazillion dollars and hand them out to help citizens. Fewer goods and services combined with more currency being spent causes prices to rise. Commercial banks see that their loans will be repaid with devalued currency and therefore increase the interest rate at which they are willing to make new loans. Meanwhile, the central bank’s interest rate, still sitting at near zero, threatens to make the central bank look impotent and foolish, and so they increase their rate to align with the market rate. The central bank then holds a press conference to tell everyone they raised the rate because they’re committed to fighting inflation.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Full speed ahead to the Great Reset and anything in the way be damned! The reserve bank in Australia has just issued the most punishing interest rate hike yet, 0.75% making it a total of 3.75% increase in the past 8 months, from near zero. And because inflation isn’t responding like a good little child to this beating, they warn that there is more to come until it learns its lesson and finally comes back down to a target 2-3% from the high of 8% currently. We’ve been talking about fantasy books and movies lately but this is a whole another realm of unreality. Meanwhile, the energy minister is forecasting a 50% increase in electricity prices in the next several months so between that and staggeringly larger loan payments for individuals and businesses alike, it looks like the Australian economy will give up the ghost after already too many years on life-support. Doesn’t anyone have a clue? If power prices are going to half-way double, how can inflation possibly be reeled in? It’s like the people at the top making these decisions don’t even live on the same planet, or at least don’t understand the first thing about the planet they inhabit, or perhaps both. Prices will be skyrocketing whether or not people can buy the products (and this is taking in account only the rudimentary tenets of economics as we know it, of course there’s so much more behind the real workings of the market economy like energy and geopolitics that decide resource availability). And if no-one can afford the products because the interest on their mortgage has suddenly increased an extra $1000 or more a month, then the prices will have to be higher yet just to keep businesses going a few more desperate months before they, too, realise it’s game over. For that is what this is, finis of the market economy, the smoke and mirrors will finally dissipate to leave us under no illusion that without this backbone for our society, we have very little to bind us coherently together, so help us gods.

      The fact everything going on is so obviously not working and the decisions are so freaking absurd, and also many Western countries are in lockstep to this agenda of raising interest rates to curb the dreaded inflation is what gives the most credibility to the idea that whilst it looks like no-one sane or endowed with brains is driving the bus, something else certainly is and gunning the accelerator towards full-on collapse. It’s reeking of COVID policies all over again–just keep bashing through the same narrative, keep doing the one-trick pony act even if it obviously isn’t working, and claim it’s all for the greater good, no gain without pain. At the same time, these countries are doing their homework in rolling out digital currencies, social credit systems, tightening the noose around misinformaniacs, and China is even keeping up the lock-down strategy so it’s become nearly normal for their population, just as all the above will be for us soon, at least that is the plan.

      I am trying to be an observer as well as an individual swept up in this wave, whether or not I desire this, there is no where else to go. I am compelled to look past the means and towards a possible end, what would be the endpoint of these extreme decisions in these drastic times, however wielded and by whom? If it will lead decidedly to addressing our overshoot, whether deliberately, accidentally, or a combination of both, then in my opinion it will be the natural course for our species, how else can it be? It remains for me to marvel at how nature giveth and taketh away, there is no hiding from this blessing/curse–even through our becoming our own creators and destroyers. How’s this zen koan adjusted–If a civilisation falls and there is no-one left to hear it, then did it even exist?

      Crossing fingers, toes, and eyes that things are calm for Tuesday in the States. Namaste, everyone.

      Like

      Reply

      1. That’s no gain without pain I meant, but you all super smart people knew that. Aussies are famous for typos of all varieties and even more famouser for picking them up.

        Like

        Reply

        1. I fixed it. Nice rant Gaia.

          Sounds like you believe we have free will on the interest rate and that we’re making a mistake by raising the rate. Almost everyone agrees with you. I’ve got a feeling that the interest rate depends on other things like energy cost, government deficit spending, and herd emotions. Central banks pretend they are in control to help us retain confidence in the pieces of paper in our wallets.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Tim Watkins has a different take on interest rates. I note he does not explain why the US is raising rates.

            Establishment media outlets continue to claim that central banks are raising interest rates to curb inflation. If this is true, then we can only assume that central bankers are imbeciles. Because there is no inflation to be found anywhere. Yes, prices are rising… but they are rising into a global currency shortage. The problem is not too much currency chasing too few goods, it is too few goods and too little currency racing each other to the bottom. To put it more concretely, the sole drivers of rising prices today are energy – particularly gas – and food. And the main reason that food prices are increasing is because of the high price of fertiliser… which is made from too expensive gas.

            Strip food and energy prices out of the official figures, and “inflation” is already falling. And it is impossible to believe that while any one of us can look at the official data and see this, that somehow the highly remunerated folk at the central bank cannot. It follows that interest rate rises are not aimed at lowering prices – indeed, the Governor of the Bank of England has said as much. So why else may they be raising rates.

            One clue can be found in the UK Chancellor’s response to the latest rise:

            “The most important thing the British government can do right now is to restore stability, sort out our public finances, and get debt falling so that interest rate rises are kept as low as possible.”

            With Russian oil and gas out of the western economies, even if the UK economy was cut in half, any energy saved would be quickly swallowed up elsewhere in Europe. And so, the impact on international prices would be barely more than a rounding error. Rather, what the Bank of England seems to be doing is raising rates in parallel with the US Federal Reserve in an attempt to maintain the value of the pound against the dollar… which, given that the pound has fallen close to the value it plunged to after Kwarteng’s ill-judged mini-budget may well be beyond them.

            A large part of Britain’s problem at present is that our leaders are caught in the “psychology of prior investment.” For the last four decades, governments have banked the house on building a globe-spanning banking and financial system at the expense of the real economy. So long as we had a surplus of North Sea oil and gas to underwrite it, it seemed to work. And when governments needed a transfusion of foreign exchange, they could always sell public assets to the highest bidder. Today we have an atrophied real economy, no public assets worth selling, a rapidly disappearing dollar reserve, and a mountain of unrepayable debt. Nevertheless, the central bank – whose primary responsibility, remember, is to protect the banks – and the government continue to pull levers and press buttons which appeared to work in the past.

            The alternative – and it sounds odd to have to say this to a Tory administration – is that the markets are correct. The value of the pound no longer reflects the true state of the British economy. And the sooner we accept that reality, the better. Because for most ordinary people in the UK, the choice is between getting poorer in an attempt to bolster the pound or getting poorer in order to reflect the true value of the economy. The former is doomed to fail, but the latter at least allows a degree of import substitution and a restructuring of the economy in favour of what remains of our productive capacity.

            https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/11/05/in-brief-collapse-ahead-how-bad-will-it-be-fracking-banned-the-other-energy-crisis/

            Like

            Reply

          2. HI Rob,

            I do not think we have free will in any of this because the money system as far back as we can go was created by other entities that have historically quashed free will of the common slave/serf/worker. It’s not “we” who are raising the interest rates, and if the aim of those who do have this magic prerogative is to help us buy things cheaper (which is what they keep telling us is the problem) then they are not doing anyone any favours by making many pay tens of thousands of dollars more a year on their mortgage (remember, the average price of a house here in the capital cities of Australia is about $1M, or at least, that’s what it was until the rates started rising) so they can’t afford to buy anything discretionary at all, and for some, that will include food and power. I really feel for all the people who recently have bought homes at record prices when the interest rates were historically at their lowest, some are even still on interest only schemes, woe are they when they actually have to add principal to their burgeoning payment. For those renting, the picture is equally dire, availability is at record lows whilst rent prices are at record highs and despite that, some are offering hundreds above the asking rate just for the chance to secure one place. Regularly you read stories of people applying for hundreds of rentals without even getting one hit. For many years, Australia has encouraged a particularly addictive form of investment through negative gearing that ballooned out the real estate market, but now those investors also have to pay higher interest rates and that means up goes the rents, no-one wins.

            I do not say it was a “mistake” per se, only that if the rationale for the relentless interest rate hikes is to smooth out our economic future, then someone is really trying to pull the wool over our eyes. For anyone can see that it’s a recipe for collapse, not a fix to prop up the economic souffle. But if the aim is demand destruction, then this is the only way to go to take it down in hopefully more controlled stages. And I believe that is the real reason here, if there is to be an overhaul of the economic system (aka The Great Reset), then the current one has to be demolished first. Of course none of this agenda can be spelled out so clearly to the masses (lest total melt-down occur immediately) so instead we have the same platitudes given by central banks around the globe that we must suffer a bit more to achieve the aims of curbing inflation. And here I must admit and apologise for being a purveyor of misinformation, yesterday I stated that Australia raised interest rates by 0.75%, that was an error, we only raised it another 0.25%, total rise of 2.85% over 7 months. It was the US that took it to 0.75% increase, as a pre-election appetiser, I suppose? The reason for my error is the interesting thing, I had two windows of news open, one story for each country’s rate rise, and the wording the head bankers used was identical in describing the aims of their move and warning of more rate rises until inflation was curtailed. It was like the same piece (or mouthpiece) and I got mixed up which was which. Another thing that came to my mind when they tell us they want inflation to stabilise at 2-3%, that will be 2-3% over the current 8%, or whatever it maxes out to be, they don’t tell you that do they? It’s not like prices are going to return to whatever they were because then we’d have deflation and there’s a remedy for that ill, too!

            In my worthless as paper money opinion, it seems that the same driver of the Covid narrative is being played out in the economic sphere. Just as health ministers believe they have control, the central banks may also feel their power, and just as the safe and effective narrative has gone so far and no further, I think we will wake up to the ruse that these crippling rate rises did nothing to make our standard of living more secure. But too late, defaults, bankruptcies, whittling away of so-called wealth will have occurred, just as so many millions of cases of Covid despite vaccines and untold harms from the policies. But the pieces are falling into place for what is to come, and whether that be for our good or ill is yet to be written.

            However, will a Great Reset fast forward us in the overshoot mitigation timeline? Global totalitarian control, on paper, seems as good of a shot as any (at least to some) and seeing as we haven’t tried anything concerted before, to quell our consuming and destructive ways. We may not like it, just as a caged animal doesn’t, but it may be the only way most of us can survive.

            Like

            Reply

    1. I would have liked to laugh out loud at this clever limerick but it’s too true and not a funny matter if taken to its inevitable conclusion. Some times I wonder if we’re all just doomed to repeat the same scenario spun out in variations of a theme through the ages. We know now of many societal collapse scenarios and the reasons leading to them, but until we overcome what it is in us that makes us oblivious to overcoming our obliviousness, we will continue until the final collapse and it looks like we’re knocking at that door now. The fall of Rome was a stumble over a rock compared to what is awaiting us, for now we’ve used up all our magic wishes in the form of easy energy and there’s about 40 times the world population, and the vast majority cannot live without the genie in the bottle. If this collapse isn’t staged just so, there is a good chance we will not even make it back to the level of civilisation of the Roman empire. We will have nothing to build on and more importantly, we lack the concerted knowledge to do so, we will begin again by scavenging the rubble left from our technological high.

      I’m viewing the Curtis doco on the Soviet’s collapse as a tragedy in that I can clearly see (through the director’s masterful eye) that we are on the cusp of the same on a global scale. What will happen when we all realise that any idea or format of money is just as useless as Monopoly money when there is nothing to buy that one needs and there are now millions of others fighting for the same? There were no potatoes in Moscow for a time and people were flogging off the clothes on their backs and shoes on their feet just for bread, this was just in the early 90s whilst we in the West were rolling in abundance. With the economic collapse being underway, possibly engineered just as the Russian “shock therapy” experiment was, how can we be sure that it won’t end with people doing the unimaginable just for food? What government is powerful enough to quell the uncontrollable urge for self-preservation? Is even a world government powerful enough? Let us ask another question and here I am just letting stream of consciousness flow–what scenario will have most of us follow without question the order of the day? Obviously a pandemic wasn’t completely successful in that regard, but it did possibly accomplish some other means to an end. Economic collapse, food scarcity, natural disasters, all these tend to more entropy states amongst the masses, at least in the first instance. Would nuclear armageddon (or perhaps even the idea of some such cataclysm, once the news sources can be totally manipulated) be the one scenario that would keep most people cowering inside their homes and totally submissive to the government for their needs for fear of the radioactive fall-out? Could this be the mother of all lockdown scenario to birth the new world order, nearly fully formed?

      Sorry, I meant to just reply to the light-hearted limerick in the same vein but it has turned rather ominous. I can only pray for calamity that the circus we are about to be shown doesn’t involve a mushroom cloud of any description.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Covid opened my eyes to what may soon happen on a larger scale. I lost friends who chose authoritarianism over truth. I lost friends who chose to follow ignorant leaders that told them what they wanted to hear, rather than friends with unpleasant evidence.

        Like

        Reply

  42. Trying to save electricity here. Dropped my heat to 16C. It’s a challenge but I’m coping so far. Had friends over for dinner last night so I raised the temp to 19C to make it comfortable for them. They were still freezing.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Good onya, Rob. And it’s only early November. I found that those socks with thermo insulation really help and of course keeping your head covered. Maybe you should pass around extra socks and beanies to guests when they arrive!

      This past year I discovered the benefits of a weighted blanket; it’s supposed to mimic the feel-good effects of a hug and apparently helps many people relax and get better sleep. Took a few nights to get used to (it weighs 9kg) and it may sound strange to smother yourself, but for me it really is a comforting and comfortable feeling, you just have to try it out and see if it suits you. Anyone else have experience with this? But the best thing of all (other than the fact your bed partner can’t steal it because it’s just too heavy for the roll and remove effect) is it keeps you so much warmer because it really retains all the body heat generated. You still need layers, with the weighted blanket above the sheet and a doona (that’s Aussie for duvet or comforter) over that.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Interesting, never heard of a weighted blanket but I see they are popular on Amazon. I sleep with my bedroom window wide open so in the dead of the winter it’s not uncommon for my bedroom to be below 0 C. I sleep comfortably with a homemade weighted blanket consisting of a down quilt plus an unzipped down sleeping bag plus an old fashioned heavy quit.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Snug as a bug in a rug! But what about your nose? Doesn’t it freeze? I know it’s supposed to be healthful to sleep cold and of course with fresh air but you are a champion!

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

    2. I remember freezing my butt off in Malaysia. It’s quite hot there but they keep their aircon at the lowest possible setting. You need to wear sweaters inside and it’s the tropics FFS

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Humans are crazy. We’ve dumbed ourselves body and mind down so much. It’s hard to believe that it was only 150 years ago that our childhood heroes in Little House on the Prairie had the strength and fortitude to survive and overcome so many common challenges we can only marvel at today. Now being without power for a even a few hours is a major disruption to our way of life. Sigh.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. One of the first things I bought when starting to get prepared was a couple of the old Dietz Champion cold blast kerosene lanterns. They are super reliable, durable, wind proof, fall over safe, and a few dollars buys a lifetime of spare parts (wicks).

          Like

          Reply

    1. I never voted Rethuglican as in the past, they were far to regressive, authoritarian, and religious. This year I held my nose (figuratively) and voted for an idiot republican for my U.S. House representative. The only reason was that I want the rethuglicans to stop Biden’s WW3 plans and bring some justice to Big Pharma (and all those responsible for the pandemic crap). That is probably a vain hope but there is a small chance.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  45. Like

    Reply

  46. The was an excellent essay Marromai. Very relatable! I’m hoping to get some cheap thrills by saying, “I told you this would happen” as the world collapses around us…

    Like

    Reply

    1. Thanks, that was SO good!

      People who criticize the oil industry don’t have a clue how the world works. Every single product in our lives is dependent on oil including all “green” energies. The only good response is (was) a MUCH smaller population that can continue to enjoy the benefits of oil for a longer time without overwhelming the earth’s ability to absorb its negative byproducts and without destroying the ecosystems that will be required to sustain us when the oil is gone.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      1. What would happen near the end of that longer time that a smaller number of people could enjoy the benefits of oil? The byproducts may not overwhelm earth’s systems but they would still continue to damage them (released CO2, for example, will effectively be around for centuries, warming the planet). I don’t see any past or future solution that continues to burn fossil fuels. That realisation may be a justification for the action seen in that clip (by the way, who keeps a machete in their kitchen?).

        Like

        Reply

    2. Very good. What was the LinkedIn response to these?

      Here are a few of my favourite piss takes we used to show at management environmental training sessions at Fulton Hogan.

      And my absolute favourite from our own great Kiwi comedian / satirist John Clarke. This was in response to Australia’s worst maritime oil spill incident where the front of the oil tanker literally fell off.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    1. Good talk. Filling in the pieces that are never talked about in the West. Imagine my surprise seeing this after just having read Larry Johnson discussing Krainer’s book “Grand Deception” on his blog (a short but good read). Yeltsin was a fool and let Russia’s “friends” rape the country. Putin slowly but methodically brought Russia back from collapse and has made it probably the preeminent military power in the world today. As the west is losing in Ukraine the probability that we end up in Nuclear War goes up. Only Putin’s intelligence and restraint might save us. Unbelievable!
      https://sonar21.com/did-the-former-soviet-union-experience-what-awaits-europe/
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I worked for this publication during the last decade of its existence:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amerika_(magazine)

        It wasn’t actually published by the State Department, but by the U.S. Information Agency (USIA), which was an independent foreign-affairs agency, which got rolled into the State Dept. in 1999.

        I did the Russian typography and page composition, and was one of the few Americans on the staff who knew Russian. Prior to 1991, the magazine got sporadic mail from readers, but after the Soviet Union collapsed, the mail started coming in, all in handwritten Russian. The picture from the letters was that the country had fallen into an abyss, and there was precious little help coming from the West. I’m surprised that the economic free-for-all that took place didn’t result in more resentment against the capitalist world than it did. Putin brought Russia back up from the gutter in 1999, and that is the reason that he has had widespread support among the Russian populace, though that may be eroding with the invasion of Ukraine, mobilization, sanctions, repressive policies, etc.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

        1. This is sort of an aside to the topic, but the Russian public largely skipped over the typewriter era – they went straight from handwriting to computers and printers. They knew that typewriters existed, because official correspondence came to them that way, but typewriters weren’t available to the public during the Soviet era, because they were seen as a means to propagate samizdat (underground publishing). The collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s coincided with the onset of the desktop computer revolution.

          Like

          Reply

            1. Maybe a slightly off-topic parallel. In India and parts of Africa, people skipped computers and went straight to mobile phones. Even poor people in India often will have a mobile phone, because it is such a useful tool to have. A lot of business is conducted via Whatsapp

              Like

              Reply

    2. Interesting discussion with a lot of valid points, though it will not gain much traction in the U.S…. Harley Schlanger is with the Schiller Institute, part of the LaRouche Organization, which doesn’t have a lot of credibility here. Lyndon LaRouche was a long-time fringe cult figure on the U.S. political scene, with his acolytes handing out flyers at D.C. Metro stations. Unfortunately, since it’s coming from a LaRouche person, it will stay in the fringes.

      Like

      Reply

      1. When I first encountered LaRouche my initial reaction was that they were fringe crazies. I’ve since come to respect them as an intelligent anti-war voice.

        LaRouche is, as usual, overshoot blind, so they miss some of the key forces in play.

        Like

        Reply

  50. Interesting documentary mainly about the psychology of climate denial, though it’s not explicitly about that. We’re essentially the same, biologically, as Homo sapiens who lived 200,000 years ago, adapted to living for the present so we don’t have the wherewithal to deal with a predicament which needs long term thinking.

    Like

    Reply

  52. Many times in the past I told myself that when the interest rate rises, we are nearing the end and should brace for impact.

    Nevertheless somehow I haven’t been thinking too much about the implications of today’s rising interest rate.

    Chris Martenson today runs the numbers and reminds us that it’s a really big deal.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Good talk by Martenson. Not sure if he is right that there will be a great reset and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Many things happening at the same time. Ukraine, collapse of Western Civilization, climate change and a collapse of agriculture, energy limits. CBDC only seems possible if all governments collude and become authoritarian. I think collapse is far more likely.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I agree with you. They might try again for a CBDC by never letting a good crisis go to waste but I think most citizens will be too ornery to let them get away with it. So collapse it is.

        I think that if we had wise leaders with integrity, a CDBC would be a very good idea to help manage the decline. But ALL of our leaders have proven with covid that they are stupid and/or evil and cannot be trusted.

        Like

        Reply

  53. Some good insight into China and the lockdowns;

    Basically China has shifted its position on housing/real estate to “houses are for living in, not for speculating on”. This is huge as 70% of Chinese wealth is in housing.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  54. I found this latest interview with Art Berman by Nate fascinating. It’s mainly technical around the oil refining processes, complexities and limitations but touches on the macro issues too. I note Art says at one point that most of the world’s problems are due to too many people and that without the Haber-Bosch process population would have been limited to around 2 billion people. He also talks of Putins PhD in energy related challenges for Russia. Says that Putin knows more about energy than probably all the other world leaders put together.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. It was a good interview. Can you imagine a one-on-one negotiation between Putin and any one of our western leaders? He would demolish them all.

      How did we fall so far? It’s not like our leaders are simply mediocre. They lack every category of character and competence that we need right now. Very strange and worrying.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  55. Nice short presentation on the events needed to initiate, and the consequences of, a nuclear war.

    Putin and Biden will have 30 seconds to make their decision to launch and destroy civilization.

    God help us. Biden needs more than 30 seconds to decide if the traffic light turned green.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  56. With all of the converging predicaments we face it seems inevitable that our global technological industrial civilisation will collapse fairly soon (oh for a crystal ball but soon compared to human lifetimes). This is scary in the extreme but I wonder why I don’t actually feel scared? I wonder if all those optimistic noises coming from environmentalists and, perhaps, all those denials of human caused climate change (just one of our predicaments), along with apparently no concerns over resource depletion, are somehow infiltrating into my subconscious and causing me a certain amount of unwarranted calm.

    Out in the blogosphere and social media world, there seem to be no end of people who seem to think they know the answers, are know someone who does. We have the solutions, just ignore realities and you’ll see that smart people will have all manner of ideas to get us over this hump.

    Of course, physics, chemistry and geology will determine what humans can do and when limits will raise those brick walls, finally waking people up to reality, including myself.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. I feel calm about collapse too. Not sure why.

      Maybe I don’t like our species and don’t care what happens. Maybe having an understanding of what’s really going on and why is calming.

      I do not feel the same calm about bad covid policies. They really upset me. Perhaps because I still do not understand how so many people can be so wrong about so many things that cannot be explained away with genetic denial of unpleasant realities.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  57. Tim Watkins today with a nice big picture recap of our energy predicament and how it is influencing all of the important world affairs.

    Little wonder then, that the technocracy is pushing hard for central bank digital currencies which, in addition to controlling what we think and say, can be used to regulate spending. If, for example, inflation is running too high, a CBDC can be used to curb our spending. If, on the other hand, we are deemed to be saving too much, the CBDC can be devalued with each day we continue to hoard it. And it goes without saying that a CBDC can be used to make protest almost impossible, for example, preventing striking trade unionists from accessing their bank accounts.

    The technocracy would have us believe that they are the all-seeing eye at the apex of the pyramid… able to control and regulate our every thought and deed. But the reality is likely closer to the little old man behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz.

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/11/10/the-slaves-revolt-the-elites-cant-defeat/

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. It is really starting to remind me more and more of the failing Roman Empire. Trying to micro-manage every aspect of the economy while really making every problem worse

      Like

      Reply

  60. Scratch my theory that some combination of overshoot collapse prep, stupidity, and evil explains the covid insanity.

    It’s 100% evil according to Dr. Aseem Malhotra and Dr. Mike Yeadon.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Problem is neither Aseem nor Mike have enough information to think otherwise. They both believe that the US, modern western society is benign or even benevolent.

      TPTB, the morbidly wealthy, the multinational corporations and those who control them have been practicing “demand destruction” on the global population for generations. Mostly through banking, finance, trade agreements (which are not even close to “agreements”), sanctions, forced austerity, all of which have killed and oppressed countless millions.

      When you understand all this then C-19 pales in comparison.

      Like

      Reply

  61. Been seeing a lot of tweets and blogs about overpopulation. It’s clearly a problem and could even be thought of as the main problem but the population has increased because of other factors (e.g. the green revolution and the advance of medical technology and drugs). Given that it would probably be impossible to get population down quickly, I think we might have to wait for the underlying support mechanisms for the large population to go away. Even up to about a couple of hundred years ago, average life-span was half of what it is today. Imagine what the global population would be if that was still the case.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. I have noticed a big movement building among the pseudo-intellectuals on LinkedIn and YouTube worrying about the human population reducing. And trying to encourage people to have children. All that has actually happened is the human pop growth rate is declining. But the population itself is still growing, just at a slowing rate. But someone people like Peter Zeihan convince themselves that this means we will run out of people in 100 years. Denial surely has some role to play here

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Wow, that’s pretty stupid. At current deaths per year, even zero births from now on would still leave us with 2 billion people in a hundred years (rough calculation). As we don’t have zero births, we definitely won’t run out of people any time in human lifespan terms. If we have a civilisation collapse or a series of country collapses then population would likely fall quite quickly (over decades).

        Yes, denial definitely has a role to play.

        Like

        Reply

        1. I think they would consider a 2 bill population as a failure. I get the impression they think human numbers need to be high and stay high. A few 100 million humans is more than enough for long term sustainability. I hope we don’t have horrible suffering to get back to that number over the next couple of centuries. But it is a fool’s hope (to quote Gandalf from LOTR)

          Like

          Reply

  62. Remember I told you about a dinner party where I listened to a young guest smugly spew venom and hate at anti-vax conspiracists before I exploded and told her she was a fucking idiot and then left before dinner was served?

    I got confirmation that my relationship with the host has been permanently destroyed. Scratch another friend. Not too many left.

    There is a price to be paid for only caring about truth and not caring what the tribe believes.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. And it is getting harder and harder due to the tribes believing more and more ridiculous ideas. I feel sorry for my kids as they face this very issue. They are more critical thinking than their friends (due to parents influence) but this puts them in a awkward situation as having an enquiring and questioning mind stresses their friendships. They will have to learn young how to walk amongst the sheep and bleat along without revealing they are a goat.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    2. Of course different people “know” different things about some subject. Some of those “knows” are compatible with reality and some aren’t but reality is rarely known with certainty. I am also prone to almost hating people I’d previously cared about because of some, IMO, crass belief or action. Sometimes, I turn out to be wrong and regret my reaction. Sometimes it’s recoverable, sometimes not.

      Like

      Reply

      1. I was very tentative in the early days with my doubts about what our leaders were telling us about covid. It took a long time with much study of evidence on many independent threads to conclude with near 100% confidence that all is not ok. I may be wrong on one or two of the dozens of things they did and are doing wrong, but the overall conclusion that evil is afoot is no doubt correct.

        So, when someone spouts hate speech towards “anti-vaxers” I have zero tolerance and will sacrifice any relationship.

        Like

        Reply

        2. “Zero tolerance towards hate speech”. Hypocritical; much? These people are scared, lied too by ALL the “experts”, and simply lack the information they need to understand what is happening.

          So is hating these folks the right thing or does it just make you feel better?

          Do you see what I did there?

          Like

          Reply

    3. I have this issue with gender stuff because I don’t mind saying to friends / family that it is impossible to change your sex and I don’t care WTF people identify as … they’re still either male or female. I feel sorry for reality sometimes

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. You have to separate two different issues here. One is biological and one is cultural. Biologically there are obviously two genders. Culturally it gets a lot more complicated. For example you find many non-civilized cultures where gender is definitely not as strict. That’s the reality as far as I can see.

        Like

        Reply

        1. I have a degree in anthropology. I’m pretty clear on this topic. There are only two SEXES. It’s not complicated at all. Gender norms and roles will change throughout time and culture, but none of that changes biological reality. Just like how there are lots of religious beliefs in different cultures, there is still the objective truth regardless of what people believe.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

          1. True. But the reality is slightly more nuanced than “there are only two sexes” in that, rarely, some humans have atypical sexual organs. I’m not sure what the proper medical term is but I recall someone like this on a discussion group (20 years ago) who got upset when others made the assumption that they were either male or female.

            Like

            Reply

            1. Sexual reproduction is binary, either producing small gametes or large ones. A self-fertile plant can produce its own small and large gametes. If a plant isn’t self-fertile, you know you will need a male tree and a female tree. Same situation for all mammals.
              What you are probably thinking of is people with Disorders of Sexual Development, which encompasses a range of conditions with chromosomes and hormonal and sexual development. People with DSD have sex characteristics of the opposite sex to what they are. Some DSD are life threatening, some require ongoing medical treatment.
              The previous term for DSD was ‘intersex’. Some people try to argue that intersex people prove sex is a spectrum. Not correct, intersex people are still either male or female.
              I am not overly knowledgeable on DSD, but there is plenty good information about it online. These conditions are complex and you do need some general knowledge of medicine and biology to understand them.
              We had an intersex family friend when I was growing up, so I was aware of the condition from a young age. Unfortunately, treatment for intersex conditions used to be pretty haphazard (to put it mildly) with doctors making mistakes. Some intersex people may have never even had their condition properly explained to them, especially a few decades ago.
              You may have come across the athlete Caster Semenya in the news. Caster is an intersex person who is male, but was raised as a female, and possibly grew up believing he was female. There were quite a few articles written about Caster. How society treats people with DSD definitely requires a lot of nuance and kindness.

              Like

              Reply

              1. Homosexuality has been observed in just about every mammal species. It usually correlates to environmental stresses, depletion of readily available resources, aka food, but has also been documented as what seems to be random occurrences.

                By the way most mammals also practice abortion/self induced miscarriages under similar circumstances so it would seem that God doesn’t give a fuck about these issues and if we were truly a “sapien” species we would not be so inclined to over population.

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

          3. “. . . there is still objective truth regardless of what people believe.”
            Well said.
            I was raised in a “conservative” religious family (not fundamentalist). When I hit my teenage years I started questioning the beliefs I was raised on (it was the 1960’s so go figure?). One of the things that always popped up when I thought of religion was; “how is it that I was born and raised in the only true religion?”. If one truly entertains that question it would seem that luck of the draw is an inadequate (and illogical) answer. Hence, I looked around at other religions and noticed that most of them taught that they were the only true religion too. So, I then asked if there was any self-correcting philosophy and found my way to Science (as practiced by Karl Popper). Science may not always achieve that “objective truth” but at least in its pure form is open to closer approximations of it.
            AJ

            Liked by 2 people

            Reply

            1. If someone doesn’t believe in objective truth, then what even is the point in debating anything with them? And I so agree with you on “the science” 🙂
              I was raised an atheist by atheist parents. Several of my grandparents and greatgrandrents were also atheists. It was so difficult as a child to answer my Christian friends about why I didn’t believe in god. All I could really come up with was, “well known told me to believe in him”.

              Like

              Reply

      1. I told my recently lost friend that I looked for experts that analyze data and support her beliefs and could not find anyone. Not one.

        She did not reply “please check out these experts that I trust”. She said nothing and looked at me like I was crazy.

        It’s clearly not about science or truth. It’s about belonging to a frightened tribe.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. And the more highly educated you are – the more susceptible you are to it for some reason! Crazy times. Does it remind of you of Iraq where lots of otherwise smart people convinced themselves Iraq did have WOMD. I was like 12 years old going ‘clearly this is about oil’.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

          1. I sometimes wonder if the blame lies with citizens like my friend rather than our leaders. The frightened majority demanded a solution to protect them. They were offered a miracle high technology invention that in the early days thanks to pharma obfuscation looked promising. Once injected they were all in and the last thing they’ll tolerate now is a leader standing up and saying, whoops, so sorry, we made a mistake. So, everyone pretends it’s working, and they ignore anything that threatens the happy story. Deep down they want to force the non-team players to be all in too, just in case they’re right.

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

    1. I saw a tweet thread by Andrew Dessler today or yesterday where he tried to claim that Simon Michaux’s work (mentioned in a reply) was irrelevant and that the minerals would be found and mined when needed because that’s what happens. And he cited the supposed example of the Erlich/Simon bet in the 90s as proof. Seems delusional and I suspect he didn’t even look at Michaux’s work.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  66. Yep, LaRouche has some wacky ideas. So sad. Many people understand a piece of the puzzle but it seems the 7 people on the planet that understands it all hang out at un-Denial.com.

    We create more resources per person. We create energy. The laws of thermodynamics do not apply to the human economy as a whole.

    I’m done with these idiots but will continue to watch some of their intelligent anti-war guest speakers.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. The video is only 17 minutes long and has no intellectually challenging concepts – but because of his inane broad brush statements (e.g. Malthusian suicide cults) I had to figuratively “step away”.

      He conflates elementary philosophy and elementary physics into a word salad. Some people may be impressed by what he says, but as per your quote, he reveals the true depth of his stupidity.

      “… we create energy. The laws of thermodynamics do not apply to the human economy” at 14:40 https://youtu.be/kt4xj4UnP84?t=880

      The Schiller Institute quoting Friedrich Schiller ; “It is Through Beauty, That One Proceeds to Freedom”

      The USA ; freedom founded in, and maintained by, violence.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  68. Mac10 on COP.

    This week is COP 27, which happens to mark the 30th year of UN climate conferences leading to absolutely nowhere. Which is more cynical, to not believe in man made environmental disaster, or to believe that pretending to care will fix the problem? This climate charade is just another warning for a society in latent death spiral, with not even the slightest will or ability to change its ways. The pandemic was the best test for climate activism we will ever get – because it caused the largest carbon collapse in world history. No flights to anywhere. No commuting. A virtual economy. The price of crude oil went NEGATIVE for the first time in history. Green energy/EV investment sky-rocketed. Fossil fuels were divested. At the apex of the bubble, Tesla had a larger market cap than the S&P Energy sector.

    However, upon exiting the pandemic we now learn that all of the predictions for climate apocalypse have been moved up in time from 50 years to next week. More drought, more wildfires, more mega hurricanes, and more empty lakes and rivers.

    In other words, it’s far too late to pretend to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. What we don’t know, is whether or not global economic collapse will “fix” climate change after the fact.

    But fortunately we are about to find out…

    Who says I’m not an optimist?

    https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2022/11/worse-than-expected.html

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  70. I’ve noticed a new and growing group of people that believe we are making a fatal mistake by letting covid rip through society which will eventually result in a more deadly variant.

    They seem to favor masks, lockdowns, and vaccines, and they think China will be the last man standing in 10 years thanks to their zero covid policy.

    I haven’t seen them push for vitamin D, healthy diets, weight loss, and anti-virals like IVM which makes me question their credibility.

    Have any of you been following this theory? Any credibility? Is it a variation of Dr. Bossche’s hypothesis?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. I don’t know. I read that there are now over 300 variants circulating (a record), with none being really dominant yet. Hospitalisations are rising here in NZ. Masks seem sensible; don’t know about the other ideas.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I’m happy to wear a mask if asked to do so because it’s a nice disguise to hide the fact that I disagree with the majority of my tribe, however I’m unaware of any credible study that demonstrates common cloth masks have ANY positive effect at reducing transmission.

        I find it remarkable and damning that our leaders have not conducted such as study over the last 3 years. Yet more evidence that our leaders are completely incompetent.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Oh, it’s quite likely that a real world study would not show much efficacy in that respect. However, I’ve seen plenty of research that shows good masks worn properly does reduce the amount of virus that gets through those layers. They can help protect those who wear them properly, which also helps protect others if the wearer is shedding virus. I always wear a P2 or N95 mask at the supermarket and in other retail places that could be busy. If I have remembered to have one with me, that is, which is most times.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

            1. Sorry. I mean that good masks worn properly would reduce transmission (to me, this just seems plain obvious and was one of Chris Martenson’s early oft-pushed messages). However, in the real world we see so many people, when required to wear masks, wearing poor masks or wearing masks badly (under the nose, not closed around the nose, loose around the cheeks, over thick or even thin beards) that I wouldn’t expect the reduction in transmission to be significant, in statistical terms. Our political leaders also never set good examples on this (apparently, it’s OK for them to remove their masks to speak (one of the times of greatest virus shedding), for example. I only saw one prominent bearded person in NZ (our police chief) shave his beard off (he followed my example, of course).

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

                1. I went to an emergency doctors in NZ. All the staff wear N95 masks correctly. All the visitors must wear surgical masks. The doctor said they had practically zero spread of covid in their workplace. Their staff only got covid from their families at home. Just an anecdote, but yea they felt they were getting good results from enforcing correct mask procedures.

                  Like

                  Reply

                    1. This was perhaps the worst response of our NZ government. No good mask guidance. Eventually, they did mandate “good” masks for situations where masks must be worn but it was a weak message never reinforced and almost no messaging on correct wear of the masks. Also exemptions were quite easy to obtain. One of the things I noticed about the spread of the disease was that from supermarkets being the most common place where the virus was transmitted, cafes and gyms became the most common once the ill-fated covid pass was introduced (if you were vaccinated, you could go to cafes, gyms and a few other places, without masks).

                      Like

  71. Hello friends,

    Hope everyone is going as well as can be, one day at a time closer to what we know is for our times. Thank you for all the comments which are such an anchoring point in these choppy seas. It’s part of my daily routine to check in to assure myself that there are more than a handful of us who will go down with the ship but knowing how it got to this point, and that’s comforting in not a small way.
    Rob, you introduced me to the Climate Casino site (along with everything else) and I am very grateful because in Eliot Jacobson’s writing I also find much resonance. His latest post I think is worth a read and a reflection because it goes very well here under marromai’s A Purpose essay.

    https://climatecasino.net/2022/11/beyond-grief/

    Sadness, overwhelmingly yes, but like Eliot, I choose not to fathom depression but keep on keeping on as I can. The miracle of being here and conscious is in no way abated by our circumstances of the hour, if anything, even more magnified for its wondrousness despite all else. I totally agree with Eliot that being kind, generous, and of service is a good life, full stop. Thank you everyone for finding and creating your circle and purpose, it is all we ever can do that defines our existence.

    Namaste.

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

  72. Hello all. Hope you are doing well.

    As human population tops 8 billion (shouldn’t we celebrate :grin:), you probably saw the latest world population report by the UN https://population.un.org/wpp/. There are some nice graphs here: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/900.

    The data portal is even nicer. I find these selections interesting.
    * total population https://population.un.org/dataportal/data/indicators/49/locations/900/start/1950/end/2022/line/linetimeplot

    It took 12 years to get from 6 to 7 billion (1998-2010) and again 12 years (2010-2022) to get from 7 to 8 billion. Isn’t this good news for once (it is not accelarating anymore)

    population change https://population.un.org/dataportal/data/indicators/50/locations/900/start/1950/end/2022/line/linetimeplot

    Even though, there is a small rebound in 2022, the net increase is (quite brutally) back to the 60s: roughly 65 million vs. 85 million 5 years ago.

    world crude death rate https://population.un.org/dataportal/data/indicators/59/locations/900/start/1990/end/2022/line/linetimeplot
    and birth rate https://population.un.org/dataportal/data/indicators/55/locations/900/start/1990/end/2022/line/linetimeplot

    (Unfortunately), it seems the change comes mainly from recent (starting in 2019) hike in death rate (even though birth rate has been regularly falling for a long time)

    This is also reflected in the life expectancy at birth, which recently changed course: https://population.un.org/dataportal/data/indicators/61/locations/900/start/1950/end/2022/line/linetimeplot

    I wonder if all this is not pointing to the fact that:
    * we have already crossed the peak of energy useful for society as it is organized currently. My terminology is not very precise, but by that I mean taking into account the real energy content and the increased cost of extraction (rather than just all liquid quantities). In other words, I mean the world is not able to provide food, healthcare, heat, shelter for as many people as before, hence the increasing death…
    * this decade will prove to be world population peak
    Just a hunch…

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. I expect you are probably right that population will peak this decade. We might actually see a decline in population due to nuclear war.

      I listened to a clip of the COP27 keynote speech in which it was roughly said, “what will the 8 billionth child who will be born in a few days think of us for not acting to prevent catastrophic climate change?”

      That sentence tells you our leaders don’t have a clue. He should have said, “climate change is caused by the human population exceeding the carrying capacity of the planet”.

      Wise leaders would have cancelled COP27 and convened POP1, a new conference on population reduction to address climate change PLUS the dozens of other overshoot calamities we face.

      Unwise leaders default to nuclear war to reduce the population.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Tim Garrett takes an alternative position in a Twitter thread:

        He points to an older blog entry which covers some of the ground:

        https://nephologue.blogspot.com/2019/06/it-seems-so-easy-to-blame-excess.html

        Like

        Reply

        1. Thanks. I’m aware of Garrett’s theory that growth into overshoot followed by collapse is unavoidable, however despite much effort I’ve never understood the essence of his argument.

          His math is sound but I’ve never been able to get him to articulate clearly why constraining growth is not possible. If his argument was based on evolved behaviors like denial or the “desire” of genes to replicate then I could understand his case, however that’s not what he is saying. His argument is based (I think) on thermodynamics.

          I say all we have to do is acknowledge and override our genetic tendency to deny unpleasant realities and then vote for an asset (preferably energy) backed full reserve monetary system.

          Done, easy peasy.

          BTW, Nate Hagens also thinks Garrett is wrong on this matter.

          Like

          Reply

          1. It’s OK for people to disagree. A lot of this is opinion.

            I also have difficulties with Garrett’s angle though he usually makes a lot of sense when he takes time to try to spell it out. Unfortunately, he’s not as good a communicator as some.

            Constraining growth (like many ideas about dealing with environmental problems) is technically possible, but maybe not practically possible with humans. We need to do far, far more than constraining growth, we need to contract economies. But any species will use up resources as fast as they reasonably can. Humans may be supposedly intelligent but are just a species, though a particularly gifted one (in terms of tool use). Maybe this is what Garrett is getting at, without saying it explicitly. Population overshoot is a symptom of how humans act as they develop tools and access resources. So we can’t really hope to rein in resource use and, therefore, planetary damage, until we physically can’t consume those resources as quickly. I still believe that collapse is the only thing that will do that. If humans survive the collapse, I have no doubt that eventually they will start unsustainably damaging the planet again. That’s a rather depressing thought but I really don’t see how I can expect anything else (not that I’ll be around for that resurgence).

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

  74. HHH @ POB.

    Heated words around HHH’s prediction of a depression. Peak oil boys can’t imagine price might fall.

    In Eurodollar curve there is 187 points of inversion. It’s an absolute ridiculous amount of inversion. I think Eurodollar curve is actually way more important to oil prices than the US treasury curve is.

    Because Eurodollars are global money. And Eurodollar system is used to borrow all them dollars used in cross border settlements and investments. If you need US dollars to do business outside US you borrow them from Eurodollar market. It’s the medium of exchange.

    And when banks become risk adverse. Which we know they are because of the yield curve. And start requiring a lot more collateral to make the loans that are used as the medium of exchange. Prices fall and it won’t be just oil prices.

    Prices literally fall because loans that are usually made aren’t made.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/july-non-opec-oil-production-hits-post-pandemic-high/#comment-748920

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  75. I left this comment on Bret Weinstein’s most recent interview.

    Tough conversation. You did good Bret. I would have blown a gasket at someone with such strong opinions and so little command of the evidence. And you barely scratched the surface of the totality of incompetence, denial, and evil that lurks behind covid policies. As you often say, they got every single decision exactly opposite of correct. That requires a big explanation.

    Like

    Reply

  78. I’m not sure I’d summarise it quite like that. Some of what Nate says seems reasonable, other bits I’d have a more nuanced view on. However, what struck me most was that much of the podcast seemed to be worrying about how the fall-out from the Russia-Ukraine war could impact BAU. However, Nate clearly stated he doesn’t want BAU. And I would add that BAU would definitely lead to a collapse in BAU anyway. So should we worry about what this so-called proxy war might result in when we’re heading there anyway? Of course, a nuclear war, if triggered, would put even something short of Nate’s dreams of a utopia in jeopardy but let’s not worry about anything short of nuclear war given that we desperately need a non-BAU world but all world leaders, including Putin (and Nate doesn’t elevate Putin over other world leaders), are trying to keep BAU (or their version of BAU) going.

    It’s a continuation of what I think I said before. Almost everything I read about or hear, assumes a continuation of BAU, with no, or little, realisation that we’re heading for a very different world and not actually preparing for that or trying to plan that transition.

    Like

    Reply

  80. Excess deaths up in all age groups. All of our “leaders” deny the problem, probably because acknowledging it would mean having to admit they damaged their own health and harmed billions of others.

    Like

    Reply

  82. Have you all seen this study? It’s really good – was linked in an article by Heinberg.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666049022000524?via%3Dihub#bbb0020

    To know ‘how much oil remains’ the statistic to use is the estimated ultimately recoverable resource (URR) of the class of oil in question, from which production to-date must be subtracted. Certainly we need better and independent international vetting of data on oil resources.

    There are many different ways to estimate URR values, but in this paper we use Hubbert linearisation as this requires only data on past oil production in a region, data which in general are both available and fairly reliable. We then combine our URR estimates with logistic production curves to forecast production of four aggregations of oil type. Our results suggest that global production of conventional oil, which has been at a resource-limited plateau since 2005, is now in decline, or will decline soon. This switch from production plateau to decline is expected to place increasing strains on the global economy, exacerbated by the generally lower energy returns of the non-conventional oils and other liquids on which the global economy is increasingly dependent.

    If we add to conventional oil production that of light-tight (‘fracked’) oil, our analysis suggests that the corresponding resource-limited production peak will occur soon, between perhaps 2022 to 2025. If then we add tar sands and Orinoco oil, the expected resource-limited total peak occurs around 2030, although there is a major question over whether significantly increased production rates of the latter two classes of oil is possible. Finally, the resource-limited production peak of global ‘all-liquids’ is expected about 2040 or a bit after if the latter liquids are also produced at the maximal rate.

    We compare our oil forecasts with those the of the US EIA and the IEA. In our view the current US EIA oil forecast appears unrealistic, as it exceeds our estimates set by URR constraints. By contrast, the IEA’s current ‘Stated Policies’ forecast is in general agreement with our forecasts, but where the IEA’s sees future global oil production as declining due in part to demand limits, ours see similar declines but caused instead by resource limits.

    In terms of climate change, in agreement with a number of earlier studies, we find that our URR calculations indicate that IPCC ‘high-CO2’ scenarios appear infeasible due to resource limits, but also show that considerable amounts of oil must be left in the ground if current climate change targets are to be met.

    Overall, we conclude that unless rapid and significant reductions in global oil demand are achieved by political measures to tackle climate change, the resource-limited oil supply constraints identified in this paper will continue to have increasingly significant economic and political consequences, and can be expected to have significant impacts on sustainability however defined or considered. Finally, we suggest that the data and ‘production peak at about URR mid-point’ model used in this paper be incorporated into wider energy and climate-change modelling to better inform policy-making.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Thanks. From your excerpt it seems they may be missing another important piece of the puzzle. If the end of growth caused by a plateaued energy supply coupled with high debt levels causes an economic depression such that consumers can only afford lower priced oil, then supply may decline much faster than a purely geologic analysis suggests.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      1. That’s the thing right, we’ll never get all these reserves produced if our economic system is in free-fall, which it will be. But at least that will be better for the climate…

        Like

        Reply

        1. Right. The study does mention EROEI (or EROI) but doesn’t seem to consider how that might affect the peak (it could mean an earlier peak of supplied product). It’s hard to imagine things holding together long enough to get a peak of “all liquids” around 2040.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

            1. Thanks. I don’t recall seeing that extra curve regarding maintenance etc. If that is accurate, the energy available to the economy for day to day living and growth goes down very quickly beyond some point. I don’t recall off-hand but I think the EROEI for just a basic society to operate is something like 5:1, might even be more. The cliff edge could be close.

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

              1. Wow I haven’t seen that one! That would mean NZ is really screwed. Especially as because we are so green (cough cough), we refuse to develop/produce our own oil and gas and rely on importing from not-green countries – we all have iron knees over here 🙂

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

        2. Maybe. I remember reading that all the forests will be gone in about 10 years when people switch to wood for cooking and heating their homes.

          We’ve got to get the population down quickly. No other path leads to a reasonable outcome.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

    2. After learning of Simon Michaux’s recent work on the scarcity of materials needed for “energy transition” I found his paper from 2019 titled Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective.

      Click to access 70_2019.pdf

      It has a graph on page 210 that I find to be the most germane to the broad topic of Peak Oil. I was going to attach it here, but WordPress doesn’t seem to be letting me. Basically, it graphs cumulative oil discoveries and cumulative oil production (use) for the last 100 years. It also graphs the difference (discovered-burned) which peaked roughly in 1980. If you extrapolate by mirroring symmetrically on 1980, in round number, we will find and use around 2 Tb of oil by 2040.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Thanks, looks like a very interesting paper. Michaux is an impressive person. He single-handedly destroyed the denial enabled plans of pretty much every leader in the world and the millions of scientists and engineers working on green energy transition plans.

        Instead of being depressed about running out of oil we should be grateful to be alive for the 100 out of 4,543,000,000 years on a rare planet that through a miracle of photosynthesis and geology produced 636,000,000,000,000 (= 4Tb * 159) liters of oil for us to enjoy the peak of what may be possible in the universe.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

        1. I am so grateful! Our chances of being alive today, rather than any other time in human history is 1/11. Both my partner and I would not be here without fossil fuel enabled modern medicine. One mother would have died from pregnancy and the other was unable to carry any baby to term without medical intervention.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

        2. Yes, but having enjoyed the energy slaves, it’s going to be horrendous without them.

          I saw some reference to Michaux on Twitter but Ketan Joshi tried to rubbish it and promised a more thorough critique of his calculations but that was months ago. I guess he’s finding it difficult to critique. Not surprising as it’s not too far off what the IEA were saying in a 2021 report and what Mark P Mills (don’t know much about him) determined in another report a year or two ago.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Hmm, “having enjoyed the energy slaves”. Exactly. I am proud and grateful to be living this orgy of energy consumption. Lives before and after are not so tempting from my current perspective 😉

            We can see Kyiv live how it works in the long-run. Not too pleasant I guess.

            Like

            Reply

        3. Yes, I’m one of those millions of engineers working on green energy transition, and also struggling with depression, though I think of it more like pre-traumatic stress disorder.

          Estimates of how much oil we have left vary greatly and it’s hard to know who to believe. I’ve also seen the number 3.6 Tb will be recoverable, almost double Michaux’s graph. I just found an online countdown clock that says we have 47 more years worth; color me skeptical. Art Berman says 10 to 20 years and that fits with Michaux’s graph and also my intuition.

          Are you basing your 4 Tb figure on the Hubbert Curve notion that since we are now at the time of peak oil we’ve only burned half? I think Hubbert’s curve, which models individual wells and whole oil fields well, breaks down per Ugo Bardi’s Seneca Cliff idea. My mental model is the shape of waves in the open ocean verses what they do when they reach the shore. I believe the Delta on the graph above will be a normal bell curve but the plot of oil usage (not cumulative use like above) will definitely be a breaker.

          Like

          Reply

          1. I hear you. Speaking from experience, overshoot awareness definitely disrupts a “normal” life. It’s easy to understand why denial is important for mental health, even if you disagree with Dr. Ajit Varki’s theory for how denial evolved to create behaviorally modern humans.

            I don’t have a strong opinion on how much oil is left. I used 4TB as a reasonable guess to highlight what for me is one of the most amazing things that has occurred on this planet. A staggering amount of life had to grow, die, be buried, cooked, and preserved in improbable reservoirs to provide 636,000,000,000,000 liters of oil for us to enjoy.

            My current view is that how much oil remains in the ground is almost irrelevant. The combination of extreme debt and rising cost of oil extraction has constrained economic growth. Our system requires growth to function. Everything breaks without growth. It doesn’t matter how much oil remains in the ground.

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

          2. Hello Brent,

            I found some interesting calculations about a possible end of oil on a German blog with the familiar sounding name “limitstogrowth.de” (another overshoot aware writer, who’s also strongly COVID sceptic – What a coincidence?)

            A physicist has analyzed different datasets to find hints, which could indicate the end of the fossil era. All calculations show, that oil extraction will be discontinued due to economic inefficiency around 2030.
            I have translated the most interesting part of the report into English, you can find it here:
            https://docdro.id/rdOtjln

            The original source is:

            Click to access Berndt_Warm_Berechnungen_zur_Lebensdauer_der_Fahrzeugproduktion_Erdoelfoerderung_V2022-10-12.pdf

            Like

            Reply

  83. You can’t say I don’t try to find evidence that supports covid policies.

    Today Michael Shermer interviewed Nicholas Dirks, president of the New York Academy of Sciences. They spent the interview trying to provide a rational explanation for why “anti-vaxers” exist and have crazy beliefs.

    I made it about 45 minutes before quitting in disgust. They made one confident assertion after another, without providing a single piece of data to support their statements, and everything they said conflicts with the data I have seen from multiple sources MUCH more intelligent than either of them.

    Where are the super smart experts that make a compelling case that our leaders are correct?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

      1. I, speaking as an anonymous poster who enjoys reading un-denial, saw with my own eyes covit intentionally being spread. Believe it or not. For me has been a frustrating last 3 years of hearing endless debate of where covit came from.

        Ruined my life. Was a triathlete before, never made a full recovery.

        Was at Loves truck stop in Green River, Utah. End of January 2020, right around Chinese new year. Pulled up and saw 5- 10 tour buses parked. I parked at the gas pump, went inside to get snacks and pay for gas. Immediately noticed that there were 100 chinese folks inside this small convenience store. Next I noticed that every single one of them were sick and coughing. After that I noticed that they were tampering with every single package or drink, taking lids off bottled drinks and putting them back in the fridges, coughing on their hands and touching everything, sticking their fingers in the soda fountain nozzles. Coughing right in my face while passing.

        Was about to start filming, but just wanted to get out of there. I also didn’t want to be rude, thought that maybe this is how they live in whatever godless hell hole they came from. Didn’t realize that I walked right in the middle of a black ops multi lateral military operation.

        There were lots of other people who got videos like this, a few years ago. Can’t find them as they seem to be scrubbed from the internet. Makes sense considering US universities gave China these bioweapons technologies.

        On a seperate note it’s looking like this new WHO pandemic treaty being finalized will be crammed down the throats of most nations including the US, to give WHO complete control over state and local government during the next pandemic. A new pandemic worse than covit will be launched shortly thereafter. Theyre trying to completely destroy the current economic system (will most likely succceed with demolition) and rebuild from the ashes (assuming enough complexity holds together)something that aint too pretty.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

      2. Dr. John Campbell continues his u-turn on covid, today apologizing for trusting our leaders and thus informing his audience in 2020 that covid did not originate as a lab leak.

        Changing your beliefs when presented with new evidence is a key sign of integrity. I trust and respect Dr. Campbell. I distrust and disrespect all of our “leaders”.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Very good. I also like it when people change their minds for good reasons. I’d quibble with a couple of things (treating peer-reviewed literature as gospel and citations always indicating agreement with the cited paper) but it’s great that he’s gone through this and admitted his error, though that wasn’t deliberate on his part.

          Did you come across John Campbell in 2020, when he was taken in by the early papers on origins? If so, how did you feel about him at that time?

          Like

          Reply

          1. I followed him from the beginning. In the early days he was a calm voice of reason analyzing available data. Midway into the pandemic I lost interest in him for ignoring emerging evidence on Fauci corruption, pharma fraud, IVM, lab leak, vaccine harms, etc. and quit him. Nevertheless, I suspected he was a good man without any conflicts of interest seeking to understand the truth based on evidence. It took him a while, but every day now it seems he gets closer to what I believe is the truth. It will be interesting to see what he thinks in 6 months.

            Like

            Reply

  85. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick today on why one is wise to be skeptical.

    Peer-review: Time to get rid of it

    ‘There seems to be no study too fragmented, no hypothesis too trivial, no literature citation too biased or too egotistical, no design too warped, no methodology too bungled, no presentation of results too inaccurate, too obscure, and too contradictory, no analysis too self-serving, no argument too circular, no conclusions too trifling or too unjustified, and no grammar and syntax too offensive for a paper to end up in print.’ Drummond Rennie.

    Somewhat damning?

    It supports my considered opinion that medical research died decades ago. It is now populated by the undead to become, what could best be called, ‘Zombie science’. Or, possibly, the walking dead.

    I would not be the first to think this. In truth, I nicked the term. Here is the abstract of a paper by Bruce Charlton in the Journal ‘Medical Hypotheses.’ It was written in 2008:

    ‘Zombie science: a sinister consequence of evaluating scientific theories purely on the basis of enlightened self-interest.’

    ‘Although the classical ideal is that scientific theories are evaluated by a careful teasing-out of their internal logic and external implications, and checking whether these deductions and predictions are in-line-with old and new observations; the fact that so many vague, dumb or incoherent scientific theories are apparently believed by so many scientists for so many years is suggestive that this ideal does not necessarily reflect real world practice.

    In the real world it looks more like most scientists are quite willing to pursue wrong ideas for so long as they are rewarded with a better chance of achieving more grants, publications and status. The classic account has it that bogus theories should readily be demolished by sceptical (or jealous) competitor scientists.

    However, in practice even the most conclusive ‘hatchet jobs’ may fail to kill, or even weaken, phoney hypotheses when they are backed-up with sufficient economic muscle in the form of lavish and sustained funding. And when a branch of science based on phoney theories serves a useful but non-scientific purpose, it may be kept-going indefinitely by continuous transfusions of cash from those whose interests it serves.

    If this happens, real science expires and a ‘zombie science’ evolves. Zombie science is science that is dead but will not lie down. It keeps twitching and lumbering around so that (from a distance, and with your eyes half-closed) zombie science looks much like the real thing.

    But in fact the zombie has no life of its own; it is animated and moved only by the incessant pumping of funds. If zombie science is not scientifically-useable–what is its function? In a nutshell, zombie science is supported because it is useful propaganda to be deployed in arenas such as political rhetoric, public administration, management, public relations, marketing and the mass media generally. It persuades, it constructs taboos, it buttresses some kind of rhetorical attempt to shape mass opinion.

    Indeed, zombie science often comes across in the mass media as being more plausible than real science; and it is precisely the superficial face-plausibility which is the sole and sufficient purpose of zombie science.’ 1

    I like Kendrick’s summary of covid insanity:

    A.N. Idiot: ‘Something must be done.’
    A.N. Other Idiot: ‘Here’s something, let’s do that.’
    Me: Sigh. ‘With or without any evidence that it works?’
    Further Idiot: ‘Evidence, we don’t need evidence. It is obvious that this will be effective.’
    All idiots together: ‘Well, that’s good enough for me.’

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2022/11/24/cleaning-the-augean-stables-part-i/

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply
  87. Pingback: Olduvai.ca

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

Gravatar
WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Cancel

Connecting to %s