Descending Into Madness

I think our society is going mad because there are so many overshoot related problems converging at once that our inherited denial mechanism is overloaded, with no leaders who understand what’s going on, few experts willing to speak publicly, and no honest discussion about what’s happening, nor what we should do.

I expect something will snap soon in a bad way.

Symptoms I see include:

  • We talk about everything except what matters. For example, our climate has shifted a gear, and peak oil is behind us, yet there is zero discussion about food security or the need for population reduction.
  • We’ve polarized into tribes that are unable to contemplate or respect or discuss the beliefs of another tribe. We attack or ignore opponents rather than engage in respectful debate. We’ve always tended to do this, but it’s getting worse.
  • Facts are irrelevant to beliefs. When facts are unsure or complex we are unable to admit uncertainty. While common throughout history, this phenomenon is getting worse, and is now pervasive in our intellectual leaders.
  • We’re totally dependent for everything we need to survive from other countries that we now view as enemies, yet we never discuss the need for more resilience.
  • We embrace solutions that have zero probability of improving a problem. Think green new deal.
  • Our response to problems often worsens the outcome. For example, printing trillions to further inflate a bubble that when it pops will do additional damage to that which we’re trying to protect.
  • We embrace leaders who created a problem to fix a problem, and there are no longer consequences for illegal or unethical behavior. Think Fauci.

This excellent new video has many useful insights despite the producers not being aware of Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory.

MASS PSYCHOSIS – How an Entire Population Becomes MENTALLY ILL

A mass psychosis is an epidemic of madness and it occurs when a large portion of the society loses touch with reality and descends into delusions.

Totalitarianism is the greatest threat.

306 thoughts on “Descending Into Madness”

  1. Very good points Rob! I also wonder if the internet, and especially our phones, has made everyone more crazy. Sometimes I watch BBC archives or interviews with people on the street from the 70s: and people seemed so different. More calm, articulate and present. I dunno it’s just a feeling, but I think mobile phones have really aided us to live in denial

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      1. Rob said “Social media has created a unique reality for every person custom tailored to what they want to believe.”

        I am sorry but this is ridiculously wrong. If you cannot see that social media is used to enforce conformity, we live in parallel universes.
        Even the so called “alternative views” are regimented into a small subset of fantasies and/or harmless critiques. Why do you think most of the “antivaxxers” are also in support of monopoly capitalism?
        Or the fact that the greens love the destruction of the biosphere in search of lithium.
        Even your posts keep supporting liberals despite the fact that it proved for decades now to be just neocons. But you think it’s incompetence not by design…

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        1. You see conformity. I see social media increasing our division on many issues: vaccine efficacy, climate change, size of government, racial issues, abortion, immigration, foreign meddling in politics, etc.

          I do not know if the vaccine skeptics I follow like Weinstein, Martenson, and Bossche support monopoly capitalism because they generally stick to the science and avoid politics.

          “Even your posts keep supporting liberals despite the fact that it proved for decades now to be just neocons.”

          I’m not sure what or why you’re saying this because I don’t do left/right politics. In fact I don’t even vote anymore because none of the candidates understand what’s going on. I honestly don’t know what a neocon is, LOL.

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  2. Excellent video but a little to heavy on Jungian psychology. After being a psychology major for 2 years I gave up on it. All schools of psychology appeared to be like religions (mutually exclusive and believing they were in possession of the truth). At that point I found science and adopted it as a philosophy – because it is the only self-correcting philosophy. It might be slow, but dig up enough new facts and any theory that is scientific can be falsified and thereby science changes. Science has problems in that it can be corrupted by corrupt individuals (think certain public health figures or Big Pharma, Big Medicine, some Universities, etc.), BUT given time, it corrects.
    Too bad it’s too late to do anything short of collapse and hopefully avoid extinction (maybe a small chance). The person behind the video doesn’t realize that totalitarianism is no better than a democracy of idiots. What we need is less denial of unpleasant truths (overshoot, consumption, and too many people) and more thoughtful degrowth. And I too hate social media, MSM and cell phones.
    AJ

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    2. Good point AJ. Psychology is probably the closest profession to magic left in academia. It also suffers from the Replication Crisis in a big way (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis). Having said that, I still find some theories from psychology really useful, so long as I remind myself the map is not the territory 🙂 It can be really hard to explain why humans do what they do when one forgets the basics of energy in / energy out. For example, blaming a war on religion or politics and neglecting something basic like running out of trees or coal. If you’ve got a good grounding in material reality, and have psychology to anticipate how people might react, could lead to some useful insights into how future will play out?

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      1. Don’t forget that there is theology still lectured in many universitis and it doesn’t look that they will be removed soon… Additionally many people treat theology as real science…

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  3. Wolf Richter claims that shale oil production is down because producers proactively decided to push the oil price up, rather than having no choice due to geologic depletion coupled with reduced investor appetite for money losing ventures.

    Does anyone know the truth of what’s going on?

    https://wolfstreet.com/2021/08/03/us-shale-oil-drillers-battered-investors-after-upending-global-oil-industry-and-losing-their-shirts-focus-on-price-the-new-discipline/

    This new-found discipline in production, in a period of reduced demand, has helped push the price back up to a survivable level for the US oil patch. This discipline didn’t come easy. It was forced on the industry by a slew of bankruptcies and by battered investors who had had enough with the philosophy that they needed to fund production growth at any cost.

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  4. Thank you to Michael Dowd for bringing this nice essay on denial by Frank Forencich to my attention.

    https://spark.adobe.com/page/fsUbep2CJ35Gp/

    But here’s the reality: the elephant in the room is going to kill us. To be precise, it’s going to make vast regions of our planet uninhabitable. It may not kill you today or tomorrow, but there’s an enormous likelihood that it’ll kill our descendants, which is to say, our children and grandchildren. And even if our children don’t perish outright, they may well live lives of desperation: According to one projection, the dominant occupation over the next century will be building sea walls around major low-lying cities–not exactly a promising, fulfilling career path. And yet, we’re not supposed to talk about any of this? Pretend that it doesn’t exist or that someone else will take care of it?

    Denial is a funny thing. As with most things in modern culture, we’re quick to focus on the individual. Denial is a personality quirk of a particular person–an alcoholic neighbor, an abusive friend or someone in the family. But have you noticed that it’s always someone else? It’s always other people. In other words, we’re particularly adept at denying our own denial.

    Denial is individual, but it’s also cultural. Entire societies can fall into a state of willful blindness, a conspiracy of silence around things we find upsetting. If it’s challenging, just talk about something else. Which is precisely where we find ourselves today. Modern culture now resembles a vast game of “let’s pretend,” a childhood fantasy in which–if we just hope hard enough–everything is going to be OK.

    In the end, talking won’t kill us, but not talking surely will. So it’s your choice: Talk or die.

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  5. Dr. David Martin has some crazy ideas on some crazy topics, but today he does a nice job of calling out executive insider trading and egregious profits at Moderna.

    Healthcare seems to be an excellent way to get rich while saving humanity.

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  6. Chris Martenson today analyzes the 6 month report from Pfizer.

    It seems to me that either we have idiots in charge, or people that are deliberately obscuring important data.

    I vote both.

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    1. Your chance of not getting severely sick was 99.996% with the vaccine and 99.866% without the vaccine, but oops, they didn’t define severely sick.

      Your increased chance of a severe adverse event caused by the vaccine was 0.5%, but oops, they didn’t define severe.

      Vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant are as contagious as those who are unvaccinated.

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  7. Pingback: Descending Into Madness – Olduvai.ca

  10. I found a population study titled:
    “Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years”

    On PLOS ONE

    They do not use a traditional demographic approach this is more of an ecological approach.

    Here is the key finding
    “Population growth has been sub-exponential over the last 50 years, suggesting that humanity is passing through an inflection point of a curve that is the product of two steep trends, one upward, the other downward. The upward curve is the combined exponential expansion of humanity and the intrinsically exponential increase in technological innovation, and the downward curve is the accelerating depletion of non-renewable resources and the loss of food security. The model predicts that the results of the 2020 census (not yet available) will be in the range 7.2 to 7.6 billion (80% confidence) instead of the projected 7.8 billion [11]. The model predicts that the population will peak or has peaked, with the peak in the range 2018 to 2023 (80% confidence) and will decline to between 2.1 and 6.6 billion by 2060. The nearness of the peak is supported by accelerating increases in adult mortality and decreases in birth rates since 2016”

    And here is what the authors think are the basic limits of their model
    “The theoretical appearance of a population decline in the near future is a foregone conclusion of the design of the model itself. The model encodes the business-as-usual (BAU) assumption that humanity will not react to change and will continue to degrade the environment. It also assumes that the carrying capacity depends critically on resources that are not under human control nor are regenerated by human activity, and which will not come under human control within the timeframe of the simulation. “

    If this model is correct we are in for an interesting decade.

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    1. Thank you.

      I’m not personally comforted by the fact that our population growth has slowed or peaked. With rising global temperatures reducing agricultural yields and less fossil energy available for fertilizer, tractors, combines, trucks, trains, and ships, we will be lucky to be able to feed 2 billion in a couple decades.

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  11. Thank you for the new essay Rob. Along the lines of madness, I’ve been wondering recently why Covid is such a juicy topic. Almost all the comments on OFW are about either the virus or the vaccines. There has to be a deep-seated reason why the collective “we” focus on this topic so ferociously. Any ideas? Covid isn’t even remotely important in the mid- to long-term. Surely most people grounded in physical reality understand this. So why the relentless dialog about it, even in collapse-aware blogs?

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    2. The focus on Covid is indeed very interesting.

      I suspect some of the reasons for the Covid obsession include:
      – It’s a really complex system with a lot of uncertainty so no one really knows the “truth”, which means many conflicting opinions are possible with no way of proving (yet) which is correct.
      – The stakes are potentially high. Deciding whether to be vaccinated or not could prove to be a life and death decision.
      – There does seem to be some unethical (or worse) behavior in the main players which engages those drawn to conspiracies.
      – Unlike our core overshoot issues of climate change and resource depletion, which we can do little about except have fewer kids and make do with less, Covid is an issue that with good leadership and innovative technology we can (or could have) done something about. People like to engage on issues that we can do something about.
      – There’s a strong tribal component to the camps, one aligned with the herd and its leaders, the other questioning everything and moving independently.

      I catch myself also falling into the Covid vortex. What engages me is that there is so little deep intelligent discussion of the known facts and risks. That’s why I gravitate to people like Weinstein, Martenson, and Bossche. I also think it’s clear there’s some bad behavior behind the curtains, and it bugs me that they’re getting away with it.

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      1. Does anyone know, what are the actual fatality risk profiles (by age) from COVID for individuals who are healthy, i.e. who are without health problems of obesity, diabetes, etc.? All the data I see obscures this point. I am myself in the COVID vortex this morning, and wondering again what is the purpose of the mass vaccination program, and what is the end game globally for a virus type that mutates rapidly and will be with us for many years, it seems. But people are dying of this thing, so maybe I should just shut up and unquestioningly trust the advice of our health and political leaders. 😦 All my family and friends do. 🙂

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            1. You could have a virus that kills no one, but it could still bring down society from its other effects. That’s why we are playing with fire. The current vaccines won’t stop the next wave or the one after.

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          2. Thanks Rob
            Here is another on-line tool.
            https://covid19risktools.com:8443/

            These tools calculate risk for individuals. However, my main interest in the question of risk to healthy and unhealthy was about broad statistics across all age groups. That would provide, me at least, a better understanding of the rational for mass vaccination programs. Or not.

            But for interest, I did run the British tool for my age and weight. Similar results as Rob Mielcarski.

            “The table shows the absolute risk of catching and dying COVID-19 over a 90-day period based on data from the first peak of the pandemic. There is a comparison with the risk for a person of the same age and sex but with no risk factors. The relative risk is the absolute risk divided by this average risk.” My Absolute risk (a) COVID associated death 0.022% or 1 in 4545, my Absolute risk with no risk factors (b) 0.0203% 1 in 4926, my Relative risk (a/b) is 1.0837 “In other words in a crowd of 10000 people with the same risk factors, 2 are likely to catch and die from COVID-19 and 9 to be admitted to hospital during a 90 day period similar to the recent peak.” M Body Mass index is 21.4 kg/m2.

            I had zero risk factors (other than age 61). This tool does not show much mortality difference between the healthy and unhealthy? That runs counter to my understanding of who are most vulnerable.

            I don’t know how these numbers compare to the risk of the seasonal flu.

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  12. I’m confused.

    I’ve been reading up on the latest climate change plan that my government has signed up for.

    When they say “Net Zero by 2050” do they mean?

    a) CO2 emissions
    b) fossil carbon extraction due to geologic depletion (which enables all of our food and wealth)
    c) total world population due to food scarcity & ecosystem collapse
    🙂

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    1. Is it fair to say it’s just a dumb marketing slogan and doesn’t mean anything? Or maybe it means we’ll have burned through all the fossil fuels by 2050 so there’ll be net zero carbon left in the ground 😉 LOL

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  13. Here is a brief account of what NZ2050 might mean:
    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-08-04/warnings-signs-as-global-oil-and-gas-giants-adopt-net-zero-2050-climate-goal/

    It basically means, let’s buy some time to carry on with BAU.

    And, many thanks for the excellent post, Rob. It is also my perception that there is no coherent and rational discussion anymore (on none of the big and important topics) and our society is showing symptoms of extreme stress.

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  14. Must read essay from Gail Tverberg today.

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/

    It seems to me that Pfizer and Moderna should have said, “We are producing new vaccines that will somewhat lessen symptoms. In a way, they will be like the annual influenza vaccines that various companies make each year. We will need to update the vaccines regularly, but we will likely miss. Hopefully, our guess regarding what will work will be ‘close enough,’ so the vaccine will provide some partial benefit for the upcoming variations.”

    Such a statement would have provided a more realistic set of expectations, compared to what many people have been assuming. No one would expect that herd immunity would ever be reached. The vaccines would be perceived as fairly weak tools that need to be used alongside medications, if they are to be used at all.

    The possible use of ivermectin to cure COVID-19 seems to have been intentionally hidden. At approximately 32:45 in this linked video, Dr. David Martin explains how Moderna announced ivermectin’s utility in treating SARS (which is closely related to SARS-CoV-2) in its 2016-2018 patent modification related to the SARS virus. It sounds as though Moderna (and others) have participated both in developing harmful viruses and in developing vaccines to cure very closely related viruses. They then work to prevent the sale of cheap drugs that might reduce their sales of vaccines. This seems unconscionable.

    Current vaccines have been badly oversold. They can be expected to make the mutation problem worse, and they don’t stop the spread of variants. Instead, we need to start quickly to make ivermectin and other inexpensive drugs available through healthcare systems. People do need some sort of solution to the problem of COVID-19 illnesses; it just turns out that the current vaccines work so poorly that they probably should not be part of the solution.

    The whole idea of vaccine passports is absurd. Even with the vaccine, people will catch the new COVID-19 variants, and they will pass them on to others. Perhaps they may get lighter symptoms, so that they will be off work for a shorter length of time, but there still will be disruption. If those who catch COVID-19 can instead take ivermectin at a high enough dose at the first sign of illness, many (or most) of them can get well in a few days and avoid hospitalization completely. Other medications may be helpful as well.

    I am skeptical that masks can do any good with the high level of transmission of Delta. But at least masks aren’t very harmful. We probably need to go along with what is requested by officials.

    It is becoming clear that today’s pharmaceutical industry is far too powerful. Investigations need to be made into the large number of allegations against it and its leaders. Why did members of the pharmaceutical industry find it necessary to patent viruses, and then later sell vaccines for a virus closely related to the viruses it had patented?

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  15. Gail has a great ability to synthesize ideas. Prompted to think (again) about the general issues. As a COVID “survivor” my selfish questions are these.

    How long will my natural immunity last, and will it protect me against serious disease from COVID variants? (Preliminary data says at least 8-12 months, some other studies are suggesting 18-24 months, one study shows B-cells in the bone marrow ready to produce antigens meaning some lifetime protection. All TBD.)
    Is natural immunity “better” than the immunity from disease provided by the current non-sterilizing vaccines? CDC and many medical professionals quoted in various publications say COVID survivors should still be vaccinated to be safe. Only a few heretics say otherwise. (The CDC refuses to acknowledge the “had COVID” population in its communications, even though the concept of herd immunity has always included those who had contacted the disease. The WHO changed is definition of herd immunity to emphasize vaccination and de-emphasize natural infection. )
    Could taking a vaccine “booster” reset my natural immunity in such a way as to set me up for Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) later?

    As I understand it, the answers to these questions are not yet clear from science studies, although there is enough to suggest some answers. I am looking at this Novavax vaccine as a possible booster if it becomes available, and the sciences suggest my immunity will not protect me against variants.

    Other questions I have, about what should be the long term plan. I accept for the moment that the human reaction to this “fire” was to try and put out the fire with these non-sterilizing vaccines. But when do you decide it is better to let some portion of the forest to burn, in order to save the larger forest? When do you decide you do not have enough buckets to fight the fire?

    Did the current variants arise because of the use of vaccines? My memory is that Bossche originally argued they did, or probably did, but his most recent long essay acknowledged the variants arose before the wide-spread use of the vaccines. However, in section 4 of this essay, Heather Heying suggests the evidence suggests the current variants of concern might be the result of vaccine use. On Driving SARS-CoV2 Extinct – by Heather Heying – Natural Selections (substack.com) I would think that if the vaccines are in fact driving a wave of variants, even the establishment medical authorities would find the courage to stand up and say so? Bossche’s last (revised?) statement was that this new wave of vaccine-driven variants is about to begin.
    Is a sterilizing vaccine against a coronavirus possible in the near term? Bossche suggested we only use the non-sterilizing vaccines to protect the old and vulnerable, and use Ivermectin etc. to get the rest of us through illness, until a second generation of vaccines is available. But can we wait that long?
    Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) is a known risk, but not a necessary outcome is my understanding. Currently my understanding is that “they” have not seen signs of ADE yet. So far more 2Billion people so far have received at least one dose of a vaccine, presumably up to 3Billion in the near future, and more after. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations – Statistics and Research – Our World in Data Are billions of people in the world being set up for a massive wave of illness in the future? Again, if this was the case, surely even the establishment medical authorities would say so? Or will this be the greatest case of over-the-cliff-herd-mentality since the proverbial story of the lemmings?
    Recently, there have been documents released (England), statements made (Newsweek), acknowledging that more variants are coming, and possibly riskier ones, even doomsday versions. Do the authorities know something we don’t?

    No answers expected to my questions. I think only time will reveal the answers.

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    1. Rob, I had no idea that PPT replicated your content. Had I known, I would NOT have posted his essay Fantasies, Myths, and Fairy Tales on r/collapse. I offer my apology.

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  18. CTG says today on OFW regarding denial

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/comment-page-1/#comment-307404

    August 6, 2021 at 3:52 am
    To Mike Roberts, Mark Robinowitz, et al,

    Let me give you my background. Bachelor of Science and Microelectronics, Plasma Etch Staff Engineer in a wafer fabrication plant before quitting 6 years ago. MBA from top 5 universities in UK; multiple critical world-changing patents in wafer fabrication process. I am immensely interested in biology and biochemistry since 1993 and did a lot of serious study and research since that point of time. I would have obtained a degree in biology if I have the opportunity. I am also very knowledgeable in sociology, human psychology and I am also a serious computer programmer (started programming and hacking computer games since 1988). I love to do a lot of research and never believe anything from the internet, be it from a reliable source or not. Since 2004, I have already realized that something is not right with energy. Yes I do love mathematics and statistics.

    The main purpose I am giving you all my background is that I am not a charlatan in science. I have something that many people don’t have – common sense and the eagerness to prove to myself that I can be right or wrong. I have so many misconceptions since young and I readily change my viewpoints when the need arises. I don’t cling on to wrong perceptions or ideas

    IYI – Intellectual Yet Idiotic. The world is full of them. You can easily identify them.

    I had a talk with someone that I knew for some time. A great guy; computer expert. We talked and he said that EV (electric vehicle) will be the future and within 10 years, internal combustion engine will be history. He asked me to buy one. He acknowledge that his condominium does not have the charging capability (condominium was more than 15 year old) and there may not have sufficient charging point. I pressed him on how the electric infrastructure will handle all this demand. We don’t have sufficient power plants, the overhead cables are too thin and it is just not possible to rewire the whole country.

    What happened after I said that? Nothing. Nothing is being said. Just quiet and then he talked about something great like asking me to buy one.
    Same goes for COVID. When I asked tough but common-sense questions to IYI, even the virologists, the reaction is identical.
    If you guys manage to catch a video of floods in Henan China a few weeks ago, you can see that the passengers of the subway train are waist deep in water yet the lights in the train are still functioning and the people are not panicking. I asked people about this. What happened? Same reaction.

    It does seem to me that
    1) Their brain not processing the information. Seems to me that they are just regurgitating out information from other sources.
    2) Common sense is not common at all. Even simple things like “how can the lights in the train be turned on” when the train is already half submerged. All the passengers would be electrocuted. Right? What is their response ? – no response. Something akin to “computer hang”
    3) Switch topics or subjects if silence is not possible.

    See, it is that simple. I give people a chance to present the information and I will judge for myself if it is good of bad. If someone wants to present “flat earth” to me, I will listen. I want to know what he is saying and I want to know why he says that. It is this that I learned a lot and I changed my perception of my surrounding because I have people an opportunity to tell me their side of their story. I will not believe everything that is said but it does perk up my interest and I will do more research (from both sides) and decide for myself how real it is.

    IYI will just push you aside and will NOT even listen to you at all if you try to say something about flat earth (or anything that is going against their narrative, even though that narrative is proven false)

    Honestly, flat earthers have many points that “round eathers” cannot refute. These “round earthers” keep on harping on the same issue – you will fall off the edge of the flat earth. That is all they are good at.

    I can even group all of these people in a common grouping
    1. Highly educated. Always think they are the best
    2. Always trust the “experts” even though the “experts” are wrong
    3. Just does not want to consider other people’s viewpoint. You can have 100 good points and just because of one point he is against you, he will discard the 99 points that you are right. You will always be wrong
    4. They are all binary – you are with me or against me
    5. Stubborn and will not accept what others says. See point #2 above. If you are in his bad books, nothing you say matter at all.
    6. Relationship is not important. Father-mother-son, friends, anyone will be dumped in the junk pile if you disagree with them.
    7. Lack the mental capacity to do critical thinking and keeps on regurgitating information that is “perceived to be true”
    Even if Neil Armstrong came out and say to the whole world that moon landing did not happen and it is a fake, these people will say that “this is fake news” even if it is shown on MSM.

    This thing transcends borders, culture, nationality, geography and race. I am more inclined towards the fact that these people are nothing more than NPCs.

    Saludos

    el mar

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    1. Thanks. CTG has some good insights into denial.

      It seems CTG may believe that the moon landing was a hoax and may also believe the earth is flat. Many people have chaff with their wheat. I’m ok sifting as long as the wheat is high quality.

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  20. My friend Panopticon still publishes a daily round up of global economic news alternating with climate news. It’s a great place to go for a global snapshot.

    https://climateandeconomy.com/2021/08/06/6th-august-2021-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/

    This article today on shipping risks was good.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/gulf-shipping-attacks-leave-global-economy-vulnerable-trade/

    Earlier this summer, a COVID-19 outbreak at the Chinese port of Yantian also demonstrated just how vulnerable globalized commerce is to shipping disruptions. In May, when a new wave of infections began spreading at the port — the world’s third-busiest —managers had to slash operations. And with Yantian handling over 13 million containers’ worth of goods traveling in and out of China each year, the partial closure caused a massive backlog. So massive, in fact, that global retailers now fear the Christmas season may be lost.

    The fact that an outbreak at a Chinese port could bring Christmas shopping to a screeching halt should worry everyone involved in the globalized economy — meaning every one of us. It also highlights the risks associated with Israel and Iran’s potential proxy war involving cargo vessels. “If less cargo is moving and taking longer, that hits consumers in the pocket,” Lockwood noted. “And confidence in shipping declines.”

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  21. We fortunate few in the rich countries are temporarily shielded from the chaos being experienced in the poorer countries. My brain struggles to maintain an integrated view of what’s going on. I’m thinking we should keep a list of countries that have food shortages and/or have a collapsing economy. Here’s a start.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3143290/catastrophic-food-shortages-set-sweep-worlds-hunger-hotspots-driving

    Please reply with additions or corrections and I will edit the list. I’ll copy/paste this thread to new posts so we can keep it current.

    • Afghanistan
    • Burkina Faso
    • Chad
    • Central African Republic
    • Columbia
    • Congo
    • Ethiopia
    • Haiti
    • Guatemala
    • Honduras
    • Kenya
    • Lebanon
    • Madagascar
    • Mexico
    • Myanmar
    • Nicaragua
    • Niger
    • Nigeria
    • North Korea
    • Somalia
    • South Africa
    • South Sudan
    • Sudan
    • Syria
    • Venezuela
    • Yemen
    • Zambia

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  22. https://www.portugalresident.com/us-study-changes-war-against-covid-and-suggests-europes-digital-certificates-are-pointless/

    US study “changes war against Covid” (and suggests Europe’s digital certificates are pointless…)

    A new study coming out of the US State of Massachusetts has changed the war against Covid-19 by demonstrating that the viral load of a vaccinated person who ends up contracting the virus is “identical” to that of an unvaccinated person.

    Portuguese immunologist Manuel Santos Rosa admits this has “changed a lot of things” – not least the “strategy” that Covid Digital Certificates are a valid weapon of combat.

    “The vaccine certificate should be an instrument that says to us that, at this moment in time, we have almost the certainty that this person is not infected and is not a transmitter of the virus”, he tells Diário de Notícias.

    “This new information demonstrates that what appears to be a certificate of guarantee that there are no risks, is not.

    “What the certificate proves is that the vaccinated person is protected and that, probably, he/ she will not develop serious illness. But when it comes to the concept of transmission, I believe the strategies for fighting infection need to be rethought.

    …the Washington Post’s conclusion is that “the war on Covid has changed, and now there is increasing concern with the possibility that vaccinated people could be a source of generalised infections”.

    This is actually nothing new: it has been the warning of bio-tech vaccine consultant Geert Vanden Bossche for months. But such is the focus of mainstream media to refer to official channels only that his warnings have been ignored (at best) if not vilified.

    Dr Bossche’s career has seen him join several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine research and development as well as in late vaccine development. He even worked for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Global Health Discovery team in Seattle (USA) as Senior Program Officer before taking up a position at the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) in Geneva as Senior Ebola Program Manager. At GAVI he tracked efforts to develop an Ebola vaccine. He also represented GAVI in fora with other partners, including the World Health Organisation, to review progress on the fight against Ebola and to build plans for global pandemic preparedness.

    In other words his warnings about mass-vaccinations in a pandemic were never likely to be the stuff of delusion.

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  24. Eric Weinstein paints an alternate reality where we have wise, competent, and ethical leaders.

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  25. My friend has single-handedly identified and championed this important issue that almost everyone ignores or denies. Take a close look at the trees where you live and you’ll see she’s right.

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    1. Depends where you live I guess. Here in Oz where I live the trees are thriving. Maybe there being not too much pollution here is the reason. Our devastating fires are more of a concern to wiping out the rainforests here.

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      1. I used to believe the same about the trees here in British Columbia until I started to pay attention to signs of sickness. It’s a very unpleasant thought that trees world wide are sick and dying and there’s nothing we can do about it except shut down industrial civilization.

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        1. Rob I worked for 30 years on Southern and Central Vancouver Island for the Ministry of Forests. I have been noting drought stress on trees for the last 5-6 years at least. In 2018-2019 logged cut blocks had numerous tree planting failures with mortality over 90%. This is an area that traditionally tree planting had over a 90% survival rate. I have also noticed wetlands drying up. River levels in late summer, early fall are now so low that salmon runs are significantly delayed. The late fall rain season in October-November-December now has more intense rainfall causing more serious erosion of logging roads and more significant landslides. The net effect on watersheds is higher water levels in the fall and much lower levels in Spring, summer. The other big change is freezing levels

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          1. Hi Brent, thanks for dropping by and giving us an update on what you’re seeing. I live in the Comox Valley on Vancouver Island in case you’re not aware.

            The small farm I assist now gets too much rain when we don’t need it and not enough rain when we need it.

            Do you have any insight into what effect the loss of our glaciers will have? I’ve wondered about the effect on ground water levels.

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            1. Hi Rob

              I would imagine glacier melt may have some impact on groundwater but rainfall and snow melt are probably the most significant particularly on Vancouver Island.

              I moved to Vancouver Island (Port Alberni)in 1992. I honestly thought it would never stop raining here in the earlier winters but overall I see significantly less rain and far less snow particularly in the mid elevations (300-800 meters). Ive noted changes to wetlands (drying up).

              There was a micro hydro dam installed on the Kokish River near Telegraph Cove about 5 -6 years ago. It has only produced power for 1 season.

              Your articles on tree stress and mortality are definitely a trend I’ve noticed here all over Vancouver Island. Another trend I noted is when forest companies burn slash piles in the fall we now have more fire escapes. When I started working here in 1991 Companies were still broadcast burning entire cut blocks.

              The Ministry of Forests and Lands has a water management branch here in Nanaimo. Talking to staff there they informed me that wells on some of the Gulf Islands are seeing salt water intrusion.

              Right now there are thousands of Sockeye Salmon holding in the Port Alberni Inlet due to low water levels. These drought events will have significant consequences to fish survival.

              In 2019 I was involved in handing out legal orders to cease watering for corn and hay crops on the Koksilah River (Duncan area) because water levels were impacting fish.

              Here we are in a temperate rainforest with ongoing drought.

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              1. Thanks for the update Brent. The trend is not good.

                The airforce base near me exploded some munitions last week during one of their training exercises which ignited a significant grass fire that threatened the homes in my community and took about 40 men to extinguish.

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    1. I liked his analysis and he explains the epidemiology of sterilizing and non-sterilizing vaccines quit well. My problem is that if I even mention this to my “liberal” relatives they immediately go silent and won’t discus it – mostly because it’s not the MSM that is giving them this information.
      Just takes us back to the whole point of propaganda – a compliant public. “Educated” people (liberals and conservatives) just don’t see how Hitler ever got Germans to do the heinous things they did – it was easy; propagandize them (with the MSM or Fox), show them whose to blame (first the Chinese, now the unvaccinated or the liberals) and tell them it’s the other tribe and they will be compliant with whatever you want them to do. We really aren’t that smart, throw in denial and one could say we are Homo Ignoramus.
      AJ

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    2. I’ve been trying to think of any evidence that Bossche & Denninger might be wrong. Does anyone know if the annual flu shots that many people get are non-sterilizing vaccines?

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      1. I think I figured out the answer without doing any research. Flu vaccines are administered BEFORE the predicted virus is circulating in the population so it does not matter if the vaccine is sterilizing or non-sterilizing.

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  27. A refreshingly honest and aware exchange on renewable energy between Richard Heinberg and a 15 year old student.

    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-08-05/questions-to-richard-heinberg-from-a-15-year-old-student/

    Emphasis on “In the best case”.

    Ultimately, we will have to return to a world not just of renewable energy, but mostly renewable materials—and it will be a slower way of life that’s lived closer to nature.

    In the best case, we will go through a transitional period in which we shrink our population and energy/materials usage while minimizing casualties and preserving the best of what we humans have achieved in these last few decades of anomalous energy abundance.

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  28. It’s interesting that almost nobody on the internets is willing to change their minds or simply say ‘I don’t know’.
    Even on this forum dedicated to specific limitations of the human brain.

    Here is a specific question: how do you know that the leaders are incompetent? Do you even know who the leaders are?
    But of course you don’t want to appear a crazy conspiracy theorist, right?

    Western civilization is bumping against limits for more than 20 years. And yet, the leaders manage to keep up the system. What makes you think they don’t know what are they doing?
    Forget about theories, what are your predictions? Here’s one:
    The system in US will still work in 10 years, despite a huge drop in population (covid donchaknow). There will be an oligarch selected prez and ppl will believe in democracy despite requiring a passport to leave their prison like apartment. The money will have an expiration date and the mass media will speak in unison.
    In other words North Korea with better propaganda.
    One thing will stay the same: people will blame each others instead of looking up at the money bags. And philosophers will keep bleating about incompetence.

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    1. I think our leaders are (mostly) no different than my next door neighbor who doesn’t have a clue what’s going on, and does not want to know. They are both primarily motivated to keep their jobs and the status quo. I tried with a close friend to present the risks on non-sterilizing vaccines and the benefits of having Ivermectin in our toolbox and no amount of reason would shift their view. They didn’t counter with different evidence, they simply said they trust our leaders, believe that the technology will save us, and don’t want to think beyond that.

      Ditto for previous discussions on energy depletion and the need for population reduction.

      With regard to why the system has continued to function for 20 years despite limits, I think 8 billion clever people all trying to grow their piece of the pie has a lot to do with it. Also the design of our monetary system allows us to shift resources from the future to the present with the consequence of increasing future suffering, which we deny.

      I agree with you that the US will still be working in 10 years but I predict most people will be about 50 percent poorer due to energy depletion.

      I do not know what to predict on population in 10 years, it might stay flat or it might fall depending on our Covid luck, resource wars, etc. Twenty years from now I think the population will be in steep decline due to food shortages.

      US leaders are already mostly selected by the oligarchs via donations and there is no difference in the policies between the two parties on the issues that matter to the oligarchs so I think we agree on this.

      You might be right about money having an expiration date because that may be the only way to keep the bubble from popping. It’s also possible that a black swan or herd panic could cause a financial collapse and reset of the monetary system. I think anything is possible here.

      It’s possible vaccine passports will be required. It’s also possible that the “vaccines are the solution” policy will blow up in face of evidence too strong to deny.

      There’s a lot I don’t know and I think I’ve change my mind many times based on evidence. Why the hostility? I do not remember our previous exchanges, but I’m sorry if I said something rude to you.

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  30. Last month was worst July for wildfires on record, say scientists…

    Last month was the world’s worst July for wildfires since at least 2003 when satellite records began, scientists have said, as swaths of North America, Siberia, Africa and southern Europe continue to burn.
    ⁠
    Driven by extreme heat and prolonged drought, the ignition of forests and grasslands released 343 megatonnes of carbon, about a fifth higher than the previous global peak for July, which was set in 2014.
    ⁠
    “This stands out by a clear margin,” said Mark Parrington, a senior scientist in the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service…

    https://climateandeconomy.com/2021/08/07/7th-august-2021-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/

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  31. There’s a diesel engine driving a bilge pump that’s not quite keeping up with a leak that’s filling the boat. Aware passengers wonder why the captain is not steering for shallow waters and are curious if the boat will sink before the diesel runs out.

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  32. Ivermectin: a multifaceted drug of Nobel prize-honored distinction with indicated efficacy against a new global scourge, COVID-19

    Abstract
    In 2015, the Nobel Committee for Physiology or Medicine, in its only award for treatments of infectious diseases since six decades prior, honored the discovery of ivermectin (IVM), a multifaceted drug deployed against some of the world’s most devastating tropical diseases. Since March 2020, when IVM was first used against a new global scourge, COVID-19, more than 20 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have tracked such inpatient and outpatient treatments. Six of seven meta-analyses of IVM treatment RCTs reporting in 2021 found notable reductions in COVID-19 fatalities, with a mean 31% relative risk of mortality vs. controls. The RCT using the highest IVM dose achieved a 92% reduction in mortality vs. controls (400 total subjects, p<0.001). During mass IVM treatments in Peru, excess deaths fell by a mean of 74% over 30 days in its ten states with the most extensive treatments. Reductions in deaths correlated with extent of IVM distributions in all 25 states with p<0.002. Sharp reductions in morbidity using IVM were also observed in two animal models, of SARS-CoV-2 and a related betacoronavirus. The indicated biological mechanism of IVM, competitive binding with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, is likely non-epitope specific, possibly yielding full efficacy against emerging viral mutant strains.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297521000883

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      1. I think I just wasted 13 minutes listening to this podcast from Nature. The podcaster appears to be an employee of Nature(??) and he interviews a journalist. Not my idea of the best “science”. In fairness they talk about one early small study from Egypt of ivermectin that was withdrawn. They are dismissive of the idea that Big Pharma would try to quash use of ivermectin. They don’t seem to have any qualms about the current vaccines or expensive Covid treatments. And they repeat WHO talking points on ivermectin. IMHO it didn’t shed any light,but that may be because I am a little dim bulb?
        AJ

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  33. And yet my local MSM (a liberal PNW tv station) never mentions this. Instead its those evil non-vaccinated. If there ever was a “herd” (as in immunity) here it’s parrot what your herd tells you and go back to sleep. And that about sums up the attitude of everyone I talk to (which is a testament to how evolution has “designed” us – denial and go with your herd).
    AJ

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  34. I’m proud to announce a new Olympic personal best for myself.

    This year I watched Olympic media coverage totaling zero hours, zero minutes, and zero seconds.

    Wise leaders would cancel the Olympics which are an obscene discretionary non-renewable resource consumption event, not because it would reduce overshoot, but rather because it would send a strong message that if we don’t stop playing games we’re going to go extinct.

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  35. Very nice climate chaos recap by Kurt Cobb today.

    Look how far we have advanced that we now call a city of 12 million a town…

    http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2021/08/all-of-sudden-climate-change-tipping.html

    All of a sudden: Climate change tipping points appear with a vengeance

    Across the world climate change seems to have arrived earlier than expected. There are world-class athletes with bodies trained for endurance and strength breaking down from the extreme heat visited on the Tokyo Olympics by mother nature. There are the continuing wildfires in the American West that take out entire towns. The drought there is so bad that states are thinking about paying farmers NOT to irrigate their crops as a conservation strategy.

    One of the other effects of climate change is heavier rains and devastating floods. Recent floods in Germany were caused by rains characterized as once-in-a-millennium, rains which, for example, killed more than 200 people and caused $1.5 billion in damage to the German railway network. But, of course, statements about once-in-a-fill-in-the-blank rains or droughts seem less and less relevant in the age of climate change as what we call extraordinarily destructive weather just morphs into “the weather.”

    Once-in-a-millennium rains also visited parts of China recently dumping in just three days an entire year’s rainfall on one town of 12 million.

    The infrastructure we have built and the way we work and live are simply not designed for these extremes. Our systems are breaking down under the pressure of climate-change-induced extreme weather.

    But the scariest thing is that all of the incidents I cited above could happen all over again next year and the next year and the next after that in the same places as extreme weather worsens and becomes just “weather.” In California, 2020 marked the worst fire season ever in the state. But 2021 is now on pace to be even worse.

    We are now reaching tipping points in the direct, destructive and destabilizing effects of climate on humans and their infrastructure. We can no longer simply ignore these effects. We can no longer simply bask obliviously in the sunshine of unseasonably warm winter days without acknowledging their terrible message as many of my fellow Washingtonians did when I first arrived in the city in 2018.

    There are hidden tipping points waiting for us to hit them. And, there are ones that are out in the open and well-studied. When most viewers watched the 2004 fictional film “The Day After Tomorrow,” they marvelled at the special effects while dismissing the collapsed timeline for a dramatic, sudden and overwhelming freeze in Europe and North America—within a week in the film. The freeze depicted results from the collapse of the Gulf Stream which pumps heat from tropical waters northward, keeping the American and Canadian eastern coasts and much of northern Europe far warmer than they would otherwise be. A cessation of this current is believed to be one of the possible outcomes of climate change.

    What scientists now suspect is that this critical river of water and heat in the Atlantic Ocean is not only slowing, but also losing its stability. The fear is that the current could shut down unexpectedly and suddenly and that effects would be felt within months—not as quickly as in a Hollywood movie, but quickly enough to create catastrophic consequences for the food supply, economic activity and human migration even while all those reading this sentence are still alive. And that is just one key tipping point.

    Will we humans rally and address this and other looming climate threats? Some will try and even try very hard. But to truly reverse climate change now so late in the game would require draconian measures that few people would tolerate. For those who say that we will adapt, we now have an emerging picture of just what that adaptation involves. For many “adaptation” will simply mean ruin. For the truly unlucky, it will mean death.

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  36. New Zealand closing our only oil refinery. I know oil needs to go, but we have made very little progress to transition our infrastructure and lifestyles (we have some of the worst urban spread). This will make global trends even more of a threat to us. A recent example, newer transport ships are getting so big, many can no longer dock in New Zealand due to our shallow waters.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125877292/energy-minister-offers-sympathies-to-refinery-workers-after-closure-vote

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    1. There’s quite a number of smart aware people who think New Zealand will be the best place to be in the world after the coming “adjustment” down.

      I visited New Zealand once in about 1990 and very much liked it. I thought it felt like Canada in the 1950’s.

      I don’t think oil needs to go or can go because pretty much everything in our modern life depends on it, either as a feedstock or as dense liquid energy. We will be forced to use a lot less oil soon due to depletion, and we should be conserving it for important tasks like running our tractors and combines.

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      1. I do feel so lucky to have been born here. It’s quite different from the 1990s, we’ve had a lot of growth. Property market is crazy here

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  37. I usually don’t post links here, but this link from Automatic Earth (Raul Meijer) to JMG’s post of a week ago was too good to pass up. I have read a lot of JMG’s books and as SciFi goes they are entertaining and some of the only post-apocalyptic fiction that has a chance of occurring (I personally don’t think his SciFi will occur as its far too optimistic. BUT, his post here on the whole Covid saga is well worth the read and seems pretty spot on to me. I’m not sure what he thinks will happen going forward will, but who knows. Enjoy.
    https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/140421.html
    AJ

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    1. Thanks AJ, it was an interesting read. JMG might be right but at the moment I’d bet there is a more probable and benign explanation.

      My guess is that Bossche is right and variants are evading the vaccine, plus there’s a faster than expected decrease in efficacy with time against the original virus.

      Most wealthy countries seem to be following the same playbook. I can’t imagine a Canadian or German health care official seeing that the vaccine is unsafe due to ADE (or any other reason) and then saying we better get everyone vaccinated so our lie is not exposed. Maybe US leadership really is that vile and corrupt, but it doesn’t pass the smell test for other more functional countries.

      Please do keep posting good stuff you find, or if you prefer, send me the link in a private message and I will post it.

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      1. Sorry, I am seriously confused…
        So you really treat seriously guys who say things like “Have you read a chart to figure out what the stars are suggesting for the 2nd half of this year or the 1st half of next? ” ???

        If so, then shit…. I guess I lost my last “doomers’ port” 😦 …

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        1. I’m not sure what you’re saying.

          Are you commenting on the fact that JMG subscribes to a death-denying fringe religion that is as wacky as the popular death-denying religions subscribed to by 5+ billion people? Or that he uses 1000 words to describe a 10 word idea?

          What is a doomer’s port?

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          1. “Doomer’s port” for me is un-denial.com 🙂 . Sorry – I should be probably more precise – “last sane / rational doomer’s port”.
            It is not only “subscribing to a death-denying fringe religion” (Gail Tverberg subscribes to it as well, but her arguments are usually very down to the earth). It is “looking into the stars to see the future”. Really??

            Just to comment on the whole of JMG post – I see nothing in that except taking facts from last 2 years and adding “narration” to them. It is well-known trick – post-dictive “explanations” can look very convincingly.

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            1. Thanks, I understand now.

              JMG did mix some (probably) correct stuff like US funding gain of function research that was accidentally released from Wuhan, with some improbably crazy stuff. I agree that it read like a just-so story.

              I guess I tend to tolerance because it’s hard to find anyone these days that does not have some chaff with their wheat. Think, for example, Nate Hagens and Gail Tverberg and Chris Martenson and Tim Morgan and Tim Watkins and Tom Murphy and David Korowicz and Richard Heinberg, all of whom I love, not acknowledging the need for population reduction policies. They probably view my obsession with Varki’s MORT as chaff.

              For the record, I quit following and reading JMG many years ago when the chaff to wheat and words to ideas ratios got too high for me.

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              1. Amen, to your comments on JMG. As I said, I read his sci-fi and it was interesting. I used to read his blog, and you had to put up with the arch druid religion junk. He was somewhat insightful, and his core idea about a slow catabolic collapse of civilization is interesting, but I too quit reading him quite some time ago. I probably shouldn’t have put the link to him. But at 2:00 a.m. I’m not always thinking the best, if ever I am?
                AJ

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  38. Must treat early if feeling sick.

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  39. Was listening to NPR about the IPCC report. They had a few scientists on, which was interesting, they went over the different impacts to various ecosystems. But when they asked “what average people can do”, the answer: “pressure your government to enforce pollution control” came dead last, and only after the interviewer brought it up. The first answer was, quite literally, “buy an electric car”, the second was, “live in a smaller home”. Demand that your state take action? Apparently not so important.

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  41. Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying respond with logic and evidence to irrational attacks from critics like Sam Harris.

    https://naturalselections.substack.com/p/on-driving-sars-cov2-extinct

    On Driving SARS-CoV2 Extinct
    Why We Need a Multi-Pronged Approach

    What is most important is this: There is a deadly virus circulating. Many have died, and many more probably will. It is in our collective interest to extinguish the virus. We must not allow it to become endemic.

    What is the best way to accomplish this? Some people, including the authors of the original Quillette article, see one and only one way forward: vaccination with the current crop of Covid vaccines. Other people, including ourselves, see a multi-pronged approach as essential:
    1) vaccinations for those who can and will have them,
    2) recognition of the natural immunity of those who have had Covid, and
    3) the global use of repurposed drugs, including ivermectin, as prophylaxis by people not in categories one or two.

    We were asked, in a recent livestreamed Q&A, to “steelman the case against ivermectin.” We focused on steelmanning the case against the use of ivermectin as a Covid prophylaxis, clipped here. Medicinal prophylaxis is not a perfect solution. Among other concerns, it requires on-going compliance. The flip side of that, however, is that it is reversible, which is not true of vaccines. All else being equal, though, vaccines are a better solution, if they are both effective (personally and epidemiologically) and sufficiently safe.

    But Pfizer now indicates that six months after vaccination, you might need another one. These vaccines are not sterilizing, and so potentially create selective pressure for new, more virulent and vaccine-resistant variants. And we have already covered a few of the safety concerns for individuals. Yet the authors of the Quillette article would have you believe that our discussions of Covid vaccine safety and repurposed drugs such as ivermectin are, in and of themselves, a threat to global health. We posit that, once again, they have that backwards.

    We are all in this together. Demonizing others, be they vaccinated or unvaccinated, is not a solution. The current vaccines cannot end the pandemic, and it is time to advance a plan that conceivably can. This has been our motivation from the beginning. We can and should all look to our better angels, and move forward with the dignity and resolve that those angels offer us.

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    1. In their article, Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying seem suggest that vaccination programs are causing the variants. Specifically for Delta, they note: “The Delta variant was first detected in India in October, 2020. India hosted numerous vaccine trials including one for Oxford-AstraZeneca and one for Covishield.”

      Is it correct to even make this hypothesis? I don’t know. From “COVID-19 vaccination in India – Wikipedia” “As of early May 2020, there were over 30 vaccine candidates in development in India, many of which were already in pre-clinical trials.[73] “ However, “India began administration of COVID-19 vaccines on 16 January 2021.” COVID-19 vaccination in India – Wikipedia One fact check web site noted it was impossible for the vaccines to have created the Delta variant, since Delta was detected before the mass vaccination program. So I guess even fact checking web sites are wrong?

      This is really the informational fog of war.

      For my simple brain, the vaccination trade-off appear to be this: Mass vaccination now to prevent an average 0.6 all Infection Fatality Rate across all age groups (heavily skewed by age in actuality), and some serious long term injury to some percentage of people, and accept
      a) some negative side effects and some adverse events including some vaccine deaths now, and
      b) the (small?) possibility of antibody dependent enhancement later, and
      c) the possibility that the vaccines drive more virulent variants later.

      So the macro choices are 1) fight the fire in front of us with vaccines that do seem to reduce severe disease, or 2) manage a “controlled burn” through the population with the measures suggested by Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying, or other measure like it.

      I have no idea of the correct answer. My intuition is no one has a global model that can project out the possible and probable outcomes of either macro choice. My intuition is the virus “wins” in the end globally, despite our best efforts.

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      1. It is all very confusing.
        1) Is there an agreed definition of what “Delta” is?
        2) Can we/are we accurately distinguishing Delta from other variants with our typical tests?
        3) How many people have been exposed and recovered without knowing it or being captured in a database?
        4) Do we have accurate data on who is being hospitalized (vaccinated, unvaccinated, recovered, etc.)?
        5) Why is it so hard to get a clear understanding? Is this a byproduct of complexity, or incompetence, or deliberate obfuscation?

        In your simple model do you assume that vaccination will prevent sickness from Delta, and for what duration after vaccination?

        My current working assumption is that we will have to live with many waves of Covid variants, and until I have a better understanding of the risks I’m going to be prepared for voluntary lockdown and self treatment, and I will be careful when in public.

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  42. Tim Morgan today on denial.

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2021/08/10/208-a-path-of-reason-part-one/

    Exercises in denial

    Recognition of this energy-constrained reality was, and remains, denied to those who believe in the infinity fallacy born of the mistaken assumption that the economy is a wholly monetary system. When deceleration – then labelled “secular stagnation” – started to be noted during the 1990s, the natural (though wholly mistaken) assumption was that there must exist a financial ‘fix’ for this unwelcome trend.

    Briefly, the history of the intervening period is that the authorities tried, first, to restore growth by pouring abundant credit into the system, a process known here as credit adventurism. The fallacy here was the assumption that the creation of demand must, by some immaterial process, be met by increased supply, an assumption which is invalid in any situation governed by material constraints.

    When, as was always inevitable, this gambit took the credit (banking) system to the brink of collapse, a resort was made to monetary adventurism. This process threatens to do to money what credit adventurism so nearly did to the banking system.

    The policy of pricing money at sub-zero real levels has had a string of consequential effects. One of these has been an escalation in debt, and another has been rapid growth in the shadow banking system, known more formally as the ‘non-bank financial intermediation’ sector.

    Over the past twenty years, we’ve been using credit and monetary policy to ‘buy’ economic “growth” at an adverse rate of exchange. Each dollar of “growth” reported since 2000 has been accompanied by more than $3 of net new debt, and by getting on for $4 of broader financial liabilities. Even these metrics exclude the emergence of huge “gaps” that have emerged in the adequacy of pension provision.

    Using SEEDS, we can quantify the deterioration in prosperity, identify the correlation between rising ECoEs and the inflexion-points in underlying economic activity, and map the relationships between liabilities and the maintenance of a simulacrum of “growth”.

    But the central issue here is the widening gap between (a) the real economy (of energy, value and prosperity), and (b) the proxy financial economy and its excess claims against non-existent future economic value.

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  44. Nice exchange between Marco and Van Kent today on OFW.

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/comment-page-4/#comment-308402

    Marco says:

    This waiting destroys me, I was so sure, last year that November collapse had come, I was really sure, now it looks like a dead cancer patient who thought he was dying and remained alive and doesn’t know what to do. I have no plans for this period I have quit all my work, I have quit everything and I have been out of work, I don’t know what to do, I’m just waiting for the end.

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    1. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/comment-page-4/#comment-308481

      Van Kent replies:

      Marco, most of the time we do what we have to do. And some of the time, we do what we want to do. The question is, what are the things that you have to be doing right now?

      We are in the collapse.

      That is certain.

      If you sometimes have doubts about our situation, then the following thought experiment might be helpful. Humans consume oil, coal, NG, raw materials and rare earth minerals. This we transform in to GDP. Or human activity. Because there is no such thing as a green economy, therefore every thing we humans do, diminish and destroys the natural world. For every bit that the global IC economy grows, equally bit by bit then our natural world dies. But if our economy doesn`t grow, then our debts, pensions and money implodes. Therefore we must grow and dissipate energy, until the very end. We have no choice.

      Sadly there is no other way out we are in the fast collapse mode.. Half of our oil, coal, NG, raw materials and rare earth minerals have been consumed in the last 35 years. So.. humans from 200.000BCE up until 1985 consumed and destroyed the planet by “100”.. and we destroyed the planet by another “100” from 1985 till 2020. And if our exponential growth were to continue (slow collapse) then by 2050 we would need to destroy the planet by another “200”.. so something gotta give (also a slow collapse isn’t possible).

      Living with the knowledge that billions of people are going to go away in the following decades, is not easy. Living with the knowledge that we failed the Fermi Paradox and the great filter test in the last 40 years.. that is not easy. Also living “alone” surrounded by people with a psychotic delusional culture, is not easy. Humans need each other. That is what our biology has programmed us for. To rely and trust in each other. But relying on your fellow man is not easy today. The delusions our brothers and sisters have are so bark raving mad..

      Our myth of progress = that is not true
      Our destiny is a linear line in to the stars = that is not true
      We are good, honest and moral people = that is not true (look at the evidence of the mess we leave behind)
      Renewable energy and a circular economy will save us = that is not true
      Technology will save us = that is not true
      We will have pensions = that is not true
      There will be a green economy/ green new deal = that is not true
      We will build back better = that is not true
      We have a future = that is not true..

      When everybody else is delusional and psychotic.. well.. that it is not an easy place to be in. For me it works to read “realism”. Books like Sun Tzu the art of war, Macciavelli, the prince, Miamoto Musashi the book of five rings. For me the wisdom in these books represent a formula to discern reality. With the academia being what it is. And our MSM being what it is. Well.. maybe the truth ain’t pretty, but it is still the truth. And that comforts and relaxes me.

      Marco, do the things what you have to do, most of the time. And somewhere in between, do the things that you want to do. Because that’s all we can do..

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      1. For me it helps to study and understand why we’re doing what we’re doing.

        Central to understanding our predicament are:
        1) the laws of thermodynamics which govern the energy that enables and drives everything;
        2) evolution and the Maximum Power Principle which created life and it’s behavior;
        3) Varki’s MORT theory which explains the existence of one uniquely intelligent species that denies unpleasant realities.

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  45. Chris Martenson with an update on Delta.

    Extreme vigilance required:
    1) Delta is supercharged virus, gets into cells easy.
    2) Delta replicates much faster, much higher viral loads.
    3) Delta spreads as easily as chickenpox (aka like wildfire). R0 is 5-9.

    Key points:
    – Delta probably exists because of gain of function insert.
    – Likely many more infections than are being detected and reported.
    – Vaccinated people are too confident due to bad advice from incompetent leaders.
    – Delta may be less harmful but hospitals still likely to be overwhelmed due to volume.
    – Herd immunity likely to be achieved quickly (2 months?), some early evidence supports this.
    – Less deaths likely because most vulnerable have already died.
    – Some experts now acknowledge current vaccines are not a path to herd immunity.
    – Some experts now acknowledge that Bossche’s predictions were correct.
    – Some experts now agree with FLCCC that focus should be on early treatment.

    Recommendations:
    – Time to start wearing an N95 mask in public.
    – Take 0.4-0.6 mg/Kg IVM at the very first sign of symptoms.
    – Pray that another variant does not emerge.

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    1. Pray? The variants are coming, quicker than the flu (correct me if I am wrong) mutates. Just pray there isn’t a vaccine resistant variant (hoping against hope?) or a more lethal one. Is there any precedent for such a fast mutating virus without a sterilizing vaccine?

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      1. Is there any precedent for such a fast mutating virus without a sterilizing vaccine?

        I am only layman interested in the subject, but some people (example – as far as I remember – author of “Pale Rider”) claim that Spanish flu went through similar mutation process. I.e. in the spring it was moderate (or even light in terms of comtemporary death ratios for other diseases) then it mutated within a few months and in the autumn it became eponymous Pale Rider…
        Of course the big difference is that there was no vaccine then, so it couldn’t be the cause of the mutation – but what counts is the outcome…

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  46. Another brilliant intellectual in complete denial of overshoot. This one is a physics expert so has no excuse.

    Still doubt Varki’s MORT?

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    1. I know that it may sound too sharply, but my first thought when I saw that was single word: “disgusting”…
      How can any conscious being bring new life to this hell knowing even only 5% of horror that will be here in next few, maybe over a dozen years…
      And how can be they so sure that within a few years “checkbook will still be balanced”??

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  47. I reread the essay Nate Hagen wrote near the beginning of the pandemic offering warnings and advice on what we should do in response. My take is that only thing he recommended that we actually did was print lots of money and bale everything out. We like printing money because it doesn’t require reality awareness, or sacrifice, or behavior change. We’ll keep doing it until we can’t and then we’ll wish we stopped sooner.

    https://www.postcarbon.org/an-overview-of-the-systemic-implications-of-the-coronavirus/

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  49. Tverberg summarizes pro-vaccine beliefs.

    The debates I’ve had after exploring the evidence revert back to “I trust my leaders and don’t have the energy or motivation to investigate if they are correct.”

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/comment-page-5/#comment-308697

    Regarding Pro-Vaccine Beliefs:

    1. There still seem to be many people who are convinced that COVID-19 will lead to herd immunity if everyone is immunized. This is nonsense; it leads to more strong variants. We never can reach herd immunity with the variants.

    2. Many people also seem to believe that those who are immunized cannot spread the new variants, like Delta and its likely successors. This is nonsense as well. Immunized people can spread the variants without realizing that they are even sick, in many cases.

    I can see five other reasons for trying to increase the number of vaccinations:

    a. Vaccinated people will tend to get lighter cases, so fewer will be hospitalized. The hospital system won’t get overloaded with COVID-19 cases, so doctors can schedule elective surgery as they desire. This is a big money maker for both hospitals and doctors. When hospitals are jammed full of COVID-19 cases, there is a need to lay off doctors and other providers who don’t deal with COVID-19. This is disruptive to the health care system.

    b. In theory, health care for those with COVID-19 might be worse, if hospitals are too jammed. (On the other hand, if those catching COVID-19 were treated with ivermectin, they wouldn’t land in the hospital in the first place.)

    c. It is disruptive to businesses to have a large number of workers out sick. Hopefully, with the vaccines, the time that workers are out sick will be shorter, and the cost of these illnesses will be lower. Similarly, tour boats will not be as overloaded with sick passengers, if everyone is immunized. They can go on their trips as planned.

    d. Selling vaccines is a big money maker for the vaccine industry.

    e. Vaccines are a big draw for young people wanting a medical career. Using a cheap drug available since the late 1940s sends the “wrong message.”

    Of course, the problem is that more vaccines mean more variants. Ultimately, we put ourselves in a box we can’t get out of. The virus tends to mutate into more virulent forms, needing new vaccines. We can’t keep up with the new vaccines required.

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