The Most Fortunate Generations (George Monbiot)

“Fossil fuels helped us to fight wars of a horror never contemplated before, but they also reduced the need for war. For the first time in human history ‐ indeed for the first time in biological history ‐ there was a surplus of available energy. We could survive without having to fight someone for the resources we needed. Our freedoms, our comforts, our prosperity are all the products of fossil carbon, whose combustion creates the gas carbon dioxide, which is primarily responsible for global warming.

Ours are the most fortunate generations that have ever lived. Ours might also be the most fortunate generations that ever will. We inhabit the brief historical interlude between ecological constraint and ecological catastrophe.”

— George Monbiot, 2006

http://global-fever.org/ch6.pdf

Hat tip Gail Zawacki.

As Good and As Bad As It Gets…

There is no magic unknown “dilithium crystal” energy in the universe.  Fission and oil are as good as it gets. Fusion is too hard.

It takes a rare and special planet to make oil. We blew through several hundred million years worth of oil in about 100 years.  And you can’t do fission without oil.

It was a lot of fun but we killed a lot of species and ruined our home in the process.

By Alice Friedemann: Tilting at Windmills: Spain’s Disastrous Attempt to Replace Fossil Fuels with Solar Photovoltaics

This is an amazingly good article.

Thanks to Alice Friedemann for her effort in helping us understand the truth.

It seems that the more inconvenient the truth, the more our species denies it. This, for me, is the most fascinating aspect of our behavior.

http://energyskeptic.com/2015/tilting-at-windmills-spains-solar-pv/

Are We Experiencing the Peak of What is Possible In the Universe?

Like the collapse of Rome, but with Wi-Fi

 

I think yes. Here’s why.

The laws of physics are the same everywhere in the universe. There are no forms of energy useful on a human scale that we do not already know about.

The laws of biological evolution are likely the same everywhere in the universe. Life’s form and chemistry may differ, but its foundation of evolution by natural selection of replicators is probably universal.

Any life with advanced technology requires two things. First, a powerful brain with an extended theory of mind capable of collaborating on the invention of advanced technology, and second, sufficient energy to allow the specialization of skills, extraction and production of materials, and construction of infrastructure necessary to develop the technology.

Varki explains that a brain with an extended theory of mind initially requires denial of reality behavior.

The only form of energy with the utility, density, portability, and extractability necessary to boot strap the creation of advanced technology is liquid hydrocarbons (oil). The biological and geological processes that create oil remove carbon from the atmosphere, bury it under ground, and release oxygen into the atmosphere. The creation of oil therefore changes the environment, and the burning of oil, which reverses the process, also changes the environment.

If a planet has life with advanced technology then it likely began by denying reality and burning oil. The energy from oil will increase food production which in turn will cause the population and pollution it produces to increase unchecked due to universal reproduction behaviors coupled with denial of reality.

Depletion of the non-renewable oil, disruption to the climate from burning the oil, and other associated negative impacts on habitat make it probable that the life will overshoot its environment and collapse before it has time to evolve the awareness of reality necessary to reduce its population and develop a high density non-carbon form of energy such a fusion, if indeed fusion on a human scale is even possible given the temperatures and pressures involved.

This may explain why we have not detected life in the universe despite trillions of planets.

We should be grateful for being alive to witness the peak of what may be possible in the universe.

Our Place in the Universe

The goal of the universe is to degrade energy. Life is one of the universe’s best inventions for degrading energy because it replicates until it has used all available resources. Humans use their unique brain power, which emerged after a rare mutation for denial of reality, to out compete other life. But the losers would do the same thing if they could. A dead planet seems to be consistent with what the universe wants.

By Nate Hagens: Limits to Growth: Where We Are and What to Do About It

Here are a couple more excellent talks by Nate Hagens. He is now concluding his talks with some modest advice on what people can do to prepare.

The Converging Economic and Environmental Crisis (10 July 2014)

Limits to Growth: Where We Are and What to Do About It (15 October 2014)

By Steven Kopits: Global Oil Market Forecasting: Main Approaches & Key Drivers

One of the best talks I’ve seen by an oil industry analyst.

The Center on Global Energy Policy hosted a presentation and discussion with Steven Kopits, Managing Director, Douglas-Westwood, on the different approaches to global oil market forecasting. Mr. Kopits’ remarks focused on both supply and demand-based methodologies, including how these models result in different assumptions and implications for oil supply (OPEC and non-OPEC), total oil demand and oil price. He also reviewed other key drivers such as changes in the transport sector and overall economic growth and discussed how these variables can further impact oil demand and supply.

The Big Picture on One Page

Flation

 

  • our incomes are not rising…
  • which prevents us from increasing our already high debt…
  • which prevents us from affording higher oil prices…
  • which prevents an increase in oil production…
  • which prevents an increase in productivity…
  • which prevents an increase in wealth creation…
  • which prevents our incomes from rising (see above)…
  • which prevents the money supply from increasing…
  • which threatens our ability to pay interest on existing debts…
  • which threatens the value of debts…
  • which threatens a deflationary collapse…
  • which threatens social unrest…
  • which threatens politician’s jobs…
  • which guarantees money printing will continue until it can’t…
  • which erodes the value of our retirement savings…
  • and someday (probably after a crash) will cause fierce inflation…
  • which will make food and other necessities very expensive…
  • which will create social unrest…
  • which will threaten politician’s jobs…
  • which will encourage despots…
  • and thanks to geology…
  • it will cost more next year to produce the same quantity of oil…
  • and the year after…
  • and so on until it costs 1 barrel of oil to produce 1 barrel of oil…
  • and then we will use 100% renewable energy…
  • just like the Romans…
  • except we have to feed 7 billion instead of 100 million…
  • and producing food will be a challenge…
  • with most of the good soil, fish, and forests gone…
  • and an unstable climate…
  • and rising sea levels…
  • and scarce fertilizer…
  • and wars between tribes over remaining resources.