By Dave Cohen: Adventures in Flatland

This three part series titled “Adventures in Flatland” by Dave Cohen is a must read for anyone seeking to understand our predicament.

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/…/adventures-in-flatland.…

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/…/adventures-in-flatland-…

By Tim Garrett: Thermodynamics of the Economy (interviews and papers)

Tim Garrett

Tim Garrett is the most important and least recognized physicist on the planet because he discovered a theory that explains and quantifies the relationship between wealth and energy consumption.

Here is Garrett’s home page with links to his papers:

http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/Economics/Economics.html

Here is a wikipedia page that explains his theory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garrett_relation

Here is a new interview with Tim Garrett:

http://www.ecoshock.org/2015/05/fires-raise-chernobyl-radiation-again.html

I’ve listened to Garrett’s previous interviews many times and never tire of them because there are so many difficult and important concepts to absorb.

http://www.ecoshock.org/2014/07/the-big-picture-like-it-or-not.html

http://www.ecoshock.org/2010/11/atmosphere-of-crisis.html

https://archive.org/details/IsClimateChangeUnstoppable

Here is a list of Garrett’s work compiled by Frank White:

https://citizenactionmonitor.wordpress.com/civilization-economic-collapse-links-to-all-posts-by-or-about-dr-tim-garretts-research/

Here is an August 2020 paper co-authored with Steve Keen:

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237672

By Steve Ludlum: Fantasy Islanders

“Nobody will admit that Europe is undone by peak oil, nobody will even discuss it or entertain the possibility! This isn’t economists in 2004 missing a prediction about what might happen in 2008. This is an entire army of exceptionally well-paid, over-educated analysts, policy makers, business leaders, economists, university professors, pundits, finance- and energy bloggers, fiction writers, poets and bass fishermen not seeing what is taking place right under their noses!

Welcome to Fantasy Island …”

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/04/26/fantasy-islanders/

And later in the comment section, Steve made this insightful comment:

“The current industrial regime is certainly non-remunerative as it is too effectively extractive. We get the excessive output we want now at the expense of the future. What the future arrives, all else being equal, there are massive throughput channels but output is a trickle – plus a lot of head scratching as to why.70% (roughly) of oil use is for personal transport, the rest is largely commercial transport (much of which is redundant or unnecessary) and chemical feedstocks including material required for pesticide production.

Big problem in food production is the asymmetric nature of the enterprise itself: it takes generations to learn how to farm a particular piece of land but two failed crops in a row will do in the farmer. Fast forward to 2015+ there is the climate curveball: how many more generations will it take to learn to farm? Is learning possible, can any farmer produce two crops in a row?

Fossil-fuel farming does work and it allows for a ‘one size fits all’ approach to all kinds of croplands. We can theoretically maintain the current regime for a few generations or so … to allow farmers to learn how to produce without petro-chemical inputs. Sadly, it is more likely that the military and motorists will fight over what remains of our fuel, crashing the current regime, leaving a lot to go hungry.”

The Most Fortunate Generations (George Monbiot)

“Fossil fuels helped us to fight wars of a horror never contemplated before, but they also reduced the need for war. For the first time in human history ‐ indeed for the first time in biological history ‐ there was a surplus of available energy. We could survive without having to fight someone for the resources we needed. Our freedoms, our comforts, our prosperity are all the products of fossil carbon, whose combustion creates the gas carbon dioxide, which is primarily responsible for global warming.

Ours are the most fortunate generations that have ever lived. Ours might also be the most fortunate generations that ever will. We inhabit the brief historical interlude between ecological constraint and ecological catastrophe.”

— George Monbiot, 2006

http://global-fever.org/ch6.pdf

Hat tip Gail Zawacki.

As Good and As Bad As It Gets…

There is no magic unknown “dilithium crystal” energy in the universe.  Fission and oil are as good as it gets. Fusion is too hard.

It takes a rare and special planet to make oil. We blew through several hundred million years worth of oil in about 100 years.  And you can’t do fission without oil.

It was a lot of fun but we killed a lot of species and ruined our home in the process.

By Alice Friedemann: Tilting at Windmills: Spain’s Disastrous Attempt to Replace Fossil Fuels with Solar Photovoltaics

This is an amazingly good article.

Thanks to Alice Friedemann for her effort in helping us understand the truth.

It seems that the more inconvenient the truth, the more our species denies it. This, for me, is the most fascinating aspect of our behavior.

http://energyskeptic.com/2015/tilting-at-windmills-spains-solar-pv/

Are We Experiencing the Peak of What is Possible In the Universe?

Like the collapse of Rome, but with Wi-Fi

 

I think yes. Here’s why.

The laws of physics are the same everywhere in the universe. There are no forms of energy useful on a human scale that we do not already know about.

The laws of biological evolution are likely the same everywhere in the universe. Life’s form and chemistry may differ, but its foundation of evolution by natural selection of replicators is probably universal.

Any life with advanced technology requires two things. First, a powerful brain with an extended theory of mind capable of collaborating on the invention of advanced technology, and second, sufficient energy to allow the specialization of skills, extraction and production of materials, and construction of infrastructure necessary to develop the technology.

Varki explains that a brain with an extended theory of mind initially requires denial of reality behavior.

The only form of energy with the utility, density, portability, and extractability necessary to boot strap the creation of advanced technology is liquid hydrocarbons (oil). The biological and geological processes that create oil remove carbon from the atmosphere, bury it under ground, and release oxygen into the atmosphere. The creation of oil therefore changes the environment, and the burning of oil, which reverses the process, also changes the environment.

If a planet has life with advanced technology then it likely began by denying reality and burning oil. The energy from oil will increase food production which in turn will cause the population and pollution it produces to increase unchecked due to universal reproduction behaviors coupled with denial of reality.

Depletion of the non-renewable oil, disruption to the climate from burning the oil, and other associated negative impacts on habitat make it probable that the life will overshoot its environment and collapse before it has time to evolve the awareness of reality necessary to reduce its population and develop a high density non-carbon form of energy such a fusion, if indeed fusion on a human scale is even possible given the temperatures and pressures involved.

This may explain why we have not detected life in the universe despite trillions of planets.

We should be grateful for being alive to witness the peak of what may be possible in the universe.

Our Place in the Universe

The goal of the universe is to degrade energy. Life is one of the universe’s best inventions for degrading energy because it replicates until it has used all available resources. Humans use their unique brain power, which emerged after a rare mutation for denial of reality, to out compete other life. But the losers would do the same thing if they could. A dead planet seems to be consistent with what the universe wants.