Category: (Certified 100% Denial-Free™)

Coincidence or Expected?

Is it coincidence or expected that we are simultaneously facing:

  1. economic collapse
  2. peak oil
  3. runaway climate change

And yet everything appears sort of normal, if you close one eye and squint.

I think it’s to be expected:

  • wealth is proportional to energy consumption
  • wealth growth is facilitated by debt
  • debt requires economic growth
  • economic growth requires increasing energy consumption
  • most energy useful for creating wealth is non-renewable
  • non-renewable means finite
  • the use of anything finite must eventually peak and decline
  • more debt can delay the onset of finite resource decline
  • energy consumption releases CO2
  • CO2 causes temperature rise
  • temperature rise triggers many self-reinforcing feedback loops
  • many self-reinforcing feedback loops acting together cause runaway climate change
  • declining energy causes economic contraction
  • climate change causes economic contraction
  • more debt can temporarily mask economic contraction
  • low interest rates can temporarily make more debt affordable
  • debt growth must eventually stop when it saturates the system
  • economic contraction with high levels of debt causes collapse
  • denial prevents most people from seeing or acting on any of the above
  • forces build until they overwhelm the herd’s faithThen something snaps.

By Population Institute: Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot (book and video)

An excellent on-line book and video by the Population Institute.

Any book that starts and ends with a quote by Albert Bartlett is worth your time.

“Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?” – Albert Bartlett

Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot (the book)

Lord Man: A Parable (the video)

COP21: Doubling Down on Denial

What have we done to date?

  • We set a goal to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees, despite it being clear that the current 1 degree rise is already unsafe.
  • We did absolutely nothing to achieve the goal; we didn’t even try.
  • We emitted enough CO2 to guarantee at least 2 degrees, even if we stopped all emissions today.
  • No one knows for sure, but we may have already triggered self-reinforcing feedback loops that will increase the temperature by a civilization killing 4-6 degrees; the point being that time is of the essence.

What should we have done at COP21?

  • We should have acknowledged the severity of our predicament.
  • We should have discussed the relationship between wealth and climate change; namely that wealth is proportional to energy consumption, CO2 emissions are proportional to energy consumption, and temperature is proportional to accumulated CO2; therefore to mitigate climate change we must reduce our total wealth.
  • We should have discussed the differences between fossil energy and renewable energy, and why the latter do not have the density, quality, or scale to run our advanced civilization.
  • We should have discussed the depletion of fossil energy and why aggressive conservation now would be a really good idea for both climate change and world peace.
  • We should have acknowledged that there are no easy solutions but lifestyle changes to focus on needs rather than wants, and population reduction policies would help.
  • We should have acknowledged that rich people and countries will have to reduce consumption much more than the poor if we want to maintain peace.
  • We should have acknowledged the good news that most people in developed countries have much more than they need to have a comfortable life.
  • We should have explained all of this to the citizens of the world and asked for their cooperation.

What did we actually do at COP21?

  • We changed the already impossible goal of 2 degrees to a more impossible goal of 1.5 degrees, thus grossly misleading the citizens of the world that our leaders are doing something useful.
  • We took no actions that will reduce CO2 emissions.
  • We made the situation worse by emitting tons of CO2 to fly 40,000 people to Paris to achieve nothing, and set a bad example in the process.
  • In summary, we doubled down on denial, instead of having an adult conversation.

By Gail Tverberg: Economic Growth: How It Works; How It Fails; Why Wealth Disparity Occurs

Mark Twain wrote, “It ain’t what you know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure, that just ain’t so.” This is especially a problem for academic researchers who depend on the precedents of past academic papers. A researcher may have come to a conclusion years ago, based on a narrow set of research that didn’t cover today’s conditions. The belief can get carried forward endlessly, even though it isn’t really true in today’s situation.

Another excellent piece from Gail Tverberg on energy, debt, limits to growth and why this time really is different.

It is frightening that none of political or economic leaders understand this stuff.

Imagine trusting your life to a doctor that was trained as an astrologist.

Economic Growth: How It Works; How It Fails; Why Wealth Disparity Occurs

By Steve Ludlum: Climate Tactics Redux

The most effective policy is to pay people to conserve: to offer a basic income conditioned to meeting conservation standards; to pay citizens who do not have children or own cars.

Steve Ludlum has long been one of my favorite thinkers on the relationship between energy and the economy. He predicted today’s low oil price 3 years ago and got it right to within a few months.

This is Steve’s first significant foray into climate change (that I can recall) and he nails it. Steve presents a long list of proposals for addressing the problem, many of which seem feasible to me, unlike the proposals presented by most climate “experts”.

Here are a few of the highlights:

  1. CO2 emissions are going to decline soon regardless of what we do because of resource depletion and economic collapse. We should focus on other forms of pollution because we have solutions and because there will be indirect benefits to climate change, not to mention our and the planet’s health.
  2. We should pay people to conserve rather than spending money on green growth “solutions” that make things worse.
  3. Climate scientists should lead by example. They have no credibility today because they are hypocrites.

Lots of good stuff here.

It’s sad that none of our leaders will ever read this.

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/12/10/climate-tactics-redux/

By Chris Martenson: Murder and Mayhem in the Middle East

I frequently criticize Chris Martenson for ignoring and/or denying climate change and over population but I have to say his voice on world affairs is becoming wiser and stronger by the day.

This piece on the truth and consequences of our meddling in the Middle East is very good.

Murder and Mayhem in the Middle East

By Gail Zawacki: Extinction Goes Glam: Celebrities in Denial

Another bright light shone on the darkness of our denial by Gail Zawacki, this time focused on celebrities.

Extinction Goes Glam

By Jack Alpert: Sustainable Civilization Analysis

Jack Alpert released a new video. He’s one of the few not in denial.

The word “sustainable” is overused and misused. This video provides some insight into what true sustainability means.

A sustainable world is a much different world than we live in, and much less abundant than most people imagine.

Notice the low YouTube view count. It seems reality is not popular.

By Gail Tverberg: Why “Supply and Demand” Doesn’t Work for Oil

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/11/23/why-supply-and-demand-doesnt-work-for-oil/

By Gail Tverberg: Oops! Low Oil prices Are Related to a Debt Bubble

This latest article by Gail Tverberg is a masterpiece. It’s long but well worth your time because it represents years of deep thought by Gail and distills everything you need to know about the economy into one paper.

It was interesting for me to learn that 1976, the year I graduated, was the year the world’s economy became permanently unsustainable. Now as we approach the bursting of the bubble that has kept our lives comfortable, it is time to take stock and make preparations for a much different world.

Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble