By Steve Carrow: What would a wise community do?

Today’s guest post by Steve Carrow compliments an essay I wrote 8 years ago on what would a wise society do about overshoot.

Steve takes a local perspective and discusses what a wise community and individual might do to become more self-reliant and resilient, and to prepare for the collapse of our high tech, energy intensive society.

My premise is that at the global, nation-state, or even state level, the current hierarchical system is not capable of climbing down from overshoot, or anticipating and preparing for a lower energy, lower consumption future. Any efforts to prepare must be done at the personal, and then small, local level, where like minded people can coalesce and work as a cooperative community to make the needed transition in lifestyle.

Local self-reliance is foremost about the basics: food, water and shelter. There are abundant resources online and printed that range from the Foxfire Book series, which captured lore from Appalachian settlers, to the most up to date beans and bullets prepper website. Local self-reliance is not about saving the knowledge we humans have accumulated, or western culture (god forbid), and it is not even a solution. It is simply a greater than zero chance to get some humans through the bottleneck.

Collecting books is NOT enough. Sure, learn from others, to avoid newbie mistakes, but actual hands on doing is needed, even if the first step is just growing a tomato plant on your balcony or patio. Don’t be afraid of small failures. More is learned from mistakes than successes.

A short time frame response to collapse is the solitary prepper, for those with the means to do so. But a longer term and more resilient response to collapse and the coming new arrangement is a collective effort. Our forebearers survived the African veldt, and then went on to overrun the world, because of group cooperation. Any success at surviving the coming bottleneck will be a small, local, group effort. Think Dunbar’s number or smaller.

Cooperation is not an easy thing to accomplish, humans being a fractious, conniving species, with a hard-wired dark side permanently bound to our empathetic, benevolent side. Recall the back to the land hippie commune movement of the 60’s and 70’s, when environmental awareness and cultural turmoil drove many to try intentional communities. Virtually every one failed. In part due to ignorance of the earthly details of self-reliance and provisioning through human labor, but also due to governance and group cooperation dysfunction. Most intentional communities were ideology driven (Vietnam, civil rights, etc.), but few had long-term sustainability as their central purpose. And it’s damn hard work.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2021/04/11/what-happened-to-americas-communes/

Somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 communes existed in the U.S. in the 1960s and ‘70s with about 75 in the small state of Vermont, making it one of the epicenters of the experiment.

Describing what a sustainable small community would look like is fairly straightforward for the physical needs dimensions of food, water, and shelter, however the social dimensions of hierarchy, communal agreements, security, and governance are the difficult puzzles to solve.

The Amish are an example of a culture that has chosen to be very intentional about what technology they adopt. In general, farming and practical avocations that provide the essentials for rural life are the center of their economy. The size of Amish communities is constrained by a reasonable trip by horse to conduct business and socializing. There is, however, a tradeoff. Their rigid social structure is paternal and religion based, but has shown staying power, with many examples of effective cooperation, such as barn raising. Full religious commitment, and submitting to rigid community rules, will not be acceptable to many modern humans.

That said, even Amish are not long term sustainable, but a model to consider as a step down from where we are, and a kind of “training wheels” for adjusting to the next step down towards living within the local carrying capacity.

Being set in their ways, Amish will likely suffer like everyone else when flexibility in fast changing conditions is required, but they will at least already have strong social connections and a tradition of group effort.

Before cooperating at the level of a barn raising or similar large group efforts, and after simply being a good neighbor, is the level where barter and more involved trading favors need to be navigated.

I am still trying to figure out barter, and trading more substantial favors with neighbors takes time to develop trust and some sort of shared value system that is not denominated in dollars.

How many eggs is a bale of hay worth? What if you have too many eggs right now, but will need the hay next winter. Maybe eggs are free in the spring, but quite dear in winter, when hens have stopped laying. This is just one example of the myriad components of a truly local economy.

How does one remember all these transactions to make sure you are being a fair trading partner? Money turns out to be real handy unless it gets too concentrated and unleashes the dysfunctional side of capitalism or is welded by the more sociopathic among us.

The point is, it will take time to achieve a sophisticated level of cooperation, and is not something that will go smoothly if it has to happen immediately after a crisis ends BAU.

All future self-reliant communities will consist of collections of self-reliant households. Therefore developing self-reliant skills is important for all possible futures. It is time to simplify, reduce consumption, and prioritize. As John Michael Greer has said for years, “collapse now and avoid the rush.” Work on becoming a potential positive contributor to a “collapse community” should one emerge.

Here is a little on my background and personal journey towards self-reliance.

I was raised on a farm in Indiana, and left the farm as many did during the Earl Butz era, to work as an engineer for the same company my entire career. I was a small cog in the industry that builds extractive infrastructure for oil companies. Sigh.

After becoming aware it took me a long time to get off the treadmill. I was very lucky to have a wife who shares my world view.

I am now doing what little I can to pay restitution for my past. We are transitioning 40 acres (17 hectares) to a permaculture based system with food plants that are native or fill the same ecological role. I am learning skills and taking incremental steps to becoming more self-reliant.

We have quite a large garden and grow about 30 types of vegetables. We dehydrate, can, freeze, and ferment, including hard cider! We seed save many vegetables, and are working on saving more.

We have planted a dozen apple trees, ten cherry trees, eight pear trees, six mulberry, and hundreds of hazelnut and chestnut trees. The hazels are now 11 years old and in full production, the chestnuts are slower and are just coming on.

Our wooded areas were pasture until about 30 years ago, so are in transition, mostly brush and brambles. We have cut in trails, and have planted oak and hard maple to speed succession a bit.

We heat with wood in a Russian furnace, which is a type of masonry stove. We are not yet off grid, and it will be a huge lifestyle change when that happens, but we have two PV arrays, and capture rain water off the pole barn for watering trees and the garden. A cistern for water storage is in the works. Many more projects are planned to increase self-reliance, and to be contributors to whatever local community emerges.

We are slowly engaging neighbors in joint efforts. We share the cost and upkeep of a small tractor with two neighbors. I own a cider press that I share with the neighbors. A neighbor had some logging done, but the tops and branches left by the loggers were more than he could ever get to, so he let me harvest firewood.

Here are some tips for increasing self-reliance that I have learned, in no particular order of importance:

  • Eat the elephant one bite at a time – it’s overwhelming to think about doing all the things needed to be maximally self-reliant, or to create a local community. Just do one small thing, then another, rinse and repeat. (Although a bit of urgency is warranted given world affairs.)
  • If at all possible, move to a place with access to land to grow food. However you slice it, getting out of urban centers and figuring out how to be part of growing food, or learning a craft, or both, will be better than collapsing in place.
  • Grow food with priority to calories like potatoes and beans, not lettuce; perennials like fruit trees; and chickens- just a couple layers will help with kitchen scraps and learning husbandry.
  • Preserve food- can it, dehydrate it, ferment it, and freeze it while you can.
  • Reduce energy use- by whatever means you can afford/accomplish.
  • Build redundancy- more than one way to get water, more than one way to heat the house, etc.
  • Learn to repair things- house, car, clothes, appliances, etc.
  • Make things- clothes, chicken coops, root cellar, flour, beer, etc.
  • Security- think about how you might protect yourself, or be part of a collective security arrangement. Depending on location and how things play out, increased violence is very likely.

I have scores of bookmarked sites about homesteading, gardening and permaculture, and three book shelves full in our library, but these tend to focus on improving the skills of an individual.

Here are a few resources relevent to building community strategies and skills that I have found useful:

  • I volunteer at a local folk school. It’s a good way to acquire skills, and maybe link up with like minded people.
  • A book I found helpful for imagining a transition path to self-reliance is Sharon Astyk’s Depletion and Abundance.
  • Chris Smaje has written extensively about what a small farm economy might look like, and his book A Small Farm Future argues for a reversal of urbanization back to individual farms, and identifies local governance issues that need to be worked out.
  • John Michael Greer in his book The Ecotechnic Future has a several chapters relevant to what a wise community might do, as does Eric Brende’s book Better Off: Flipping the Switch on Technology.
  • The Living Energy Farm has ideas for small scale community energy systems.
  • I do not follow the transition towns movement, as I hear little about them any more. They had quite the buzz for a while, but perhaps tried to do too much? Maybe someone here knows if transition towns offer any useful resources?

I hope others add to this list of resources in the comments.

Rob here: If a substantial list of resources emerges I will copy and organize them somewhere for easy reference.

373 thoughts on “By Steve Carrow: What would a wise community do?”

  1. I have given thought to the winning survival strategy of a group that prepares for a down slope that does not contain nuclear or biological culling.

    That is why I think of presently unacceptable social contracts as an alternative path forward. See http://www.skil.org, especially The plan for Unwinding the Human Predicament.

    Here is the personal survival plan I have morally rejected but I think will produce the last man standing.

    Think of a group that can harvest materials and human bodies for food. Think of the truck group in Cormac McCarthy’s The Road.

    They just moved around from productive homestead to productive homestead eating the harvests and people until everything is consumed and move on. Against this model prepping (food production and defense) is pretty much the creation of targets for these mobile preppers. No fixed location can hold out against the sweep and eat hungry hordes.

    When these roving bands are so far apart they have no targets of opportunity within the capacity of their remaining rations then they eat each other and die out or hunt and gather if they have the skills to hide from each other.

    People with wood lots and potatoes in the ground and a few chickens are humoring themselves. They don’t see themselves as food for any group that set itself up to move to eat people and whatever vegetables these people grew and stored.

    Chilling thoughts. Maybe they can motivate some serious outside the box paths forward that keeps more of the human abilities to advance wellbeing. See How the World Works, a 9 minute video.

    Jack Alpert
    http://www.skil.org
    Jack’s work 600 word summary

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    1. Hi Jack, thanks for stopping by. Hope you are well.

      I’m afraid your socially unacceptable survival plan is likely to be a winning strategy for the predators.

      As with all predator/prey systems, I expect some of the most fit and most lucky prey will also survive.

      I personally would like to find a way to preserve some of the best elements of our modern society in a system that has at least a small chance of long term survival.

      That’s why I support your plan which I believe is the only plan in existence that offers any hope for anything other than a return to the stone age or extinction.

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    2. Jack, how lamentable that your video has only 19k views in three years. It seems the vast majority do not want to accept that there is a dilemma. The ignorance of the public is profound.

      Cormac McCarthy’s The Road, is my stalwart answer for “how bad could it get”. The piecemeal cannibalism, to keep the food ‘fresh’, was as you say ‘chilling’.

      I agree with Rob, when he says “… some of the most fit and most lucky prey will also survive.”

      For a short period of time, maybe the first harvest, then winter and through to the following spring, there will be three types of people that persevere:
      – the lucky, and luck eventually fails.
      – the prepared, who eventually run out of preps.
      – the monsters, that become more experienced and cunning with every encounter.

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  2. Dr. Tom Murphy today recounts his experiments with AI generated images.

    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/03/cant-spell-fail-without-ai/

    I show all these examples so that you can live a similar experience and see how silly AI often is. Not to sell it too short: I am truly impressed that a visual representation can be created so quickly that would take me weeks to produce—if I even had the skill to do so at all. But it can’t tell stories.

    AI is good at placing objects in an image, dressing them up in funky costumes and rendering in various artistic styles. Just don’t try to specify how/where the elements are to be arranged. Images can also be accidentally evocative—but I suspect only because the training set had evocative imagery.

    What it consistently misses is relationships between elements—crucial for a story. It works in the realm of objects and detail, not in synthesis of a larger whole. Nouns and adjectives, but not verbs. If you’ve read Iain McGilchrist’s The Master and His Emissary, you’ll easily identify AI as an algorithmic left-hemisphere processor, lacking the qualities of the right hemisphere for understanding metaphor, narrative, relationships, and the whole. We need to be better than that.

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  4. Unlike clots formed via string theory, or myocarditis from auto-immune system heart tissue damage, which I can quickly explain in simple language, I am struggling to understand and explain the IgG4 class shift problem. If pressed I would simply say mRNA damages the immune system giving the virus a safe home to mutate into something more dangerous. I’m hoping that with time I will be able to properly explain the IgG4 problem.

    It’s hard to express how angry I feel given that despite me being a non-expert I am aware of both serious short term risks, and potentially more serious long term risks, with rising all-cause mortality signals confirming the risks, yet our “leaders” continue to push even more mRNA into people including children.

    https://www.rintrah.nl/millions-more-begin-to-show-the-igg4-class-shift/

    Natural infection doesn’t do this: When an infection is severe enough to require an IgG antibody response (not all infections require IgG antibodies), it creates a small number of IgG antibodies, against a small number of spots on the Spike protein, those spots are most often 7 to 9 amino acids in length. Those antibodies will target different spots from one person to another, so they’re hard to escape through evolution. Importantly, those antibodies also undergo affinity maturation: The immune system improves these antibodies over time, to make them bind more tightly.

    Once you’ve gone through this process, your body is playing the role in the human community it’s supposed to play: Stop virulent respiratory viruses from spreading themselves, while allowing milder ones to pass through and find new hosts. With sufficient exposure however, the unvaccinated are likely to turn into dead end hosts, prohibiting them from selecting against virulence by no longer passing on the virus altogether.

    They screwed all of this up and created an immune escape pandemic, of ever more infectious variants. You can not discriminate against virulent varieties, when your body is just desperately trying to keep this virus out with a cocktail of IgG4 antibodies against the whole Spike protein.

    Now you see the result. Your kid has brain damage since the summer of 2022? Well, BA.5 that spread in the middle of summer, evolved to infect the brain (where antibodies can’t reach). It has a selective advantage thanks to the boosted.

    All these low grade morons are telling you that it’s somehow normal for a new virus to emerge next to a Chinese lab, infect the whole human population within months, then reinfect everyone on a constant basis, constantly increasing the viral load seen in sewage (highest peak ever seen so far was in December 2023) and constantly increasing its fusogenicity with every new Omicron variant.

    Do me a favor, when you run into one of these morons, grab them by the neck and ask them: How come none of this ever happened with the previous four corona viruses that jumped into our species and established themselves? How come the hCov’s are not steadily increasing their virulence?

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    1. Two of my mRNA’d friends are sick AGAIN with a persistent “COLD”.
      Another friend’s health noticeably and worryingly declined after he ignored my warning not to get boosted.
      Another mRNA’d friend died unexpectedly watching TV. They didn’t do an autopsy so we’ll never know.

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      1. My two neighbours both in their early seventies are boostered numerous times after getting Astra Zeneca adenovirus vector injections have now developed aggressive cancers. He has prostate and she leukemia. Coincidence – most likely……………………………not.

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        1. Not only are we seeing an excess of deaths around the world but also an increase in chronic disease.

          Dr. John Campbell fact checks the UK health minister’s unscientific and incorrect response.

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              1. I realise that comment might have hit a nerve but, really, age-standardised mortality calculations are far more useful than raw numbers (though even just population size adjustments, for NZ, show no excess mortality, taking account of ageing gives a negative excess mortality). Before denying reality, lets get a solid grip on what reality is.

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            2. John Campbell mentioned the Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. They will be publishing a monthly report, which John didn’t mention. Here is there latest data which doesn’t show any excess deaths since the middle of last year, though I’m not sure there use age-standardised methods: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNDVjNjYyYTYtMWJmZC00MDVjLWJlN2UtNjMxYjk3NDM5NDI1IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

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                1. Right. So the data were fine before that, because they seemed to paint the picture you wanted, at least according to John Campbell? All government data should be taken with a good dollop of scepticism. All of it. All of the time.

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                    1. I’m a little confused here. Presumably you mean that they aren’t publishing data that you can be confident of? John Campbell seems to assume the data are sound and reports them, from which we form opinions. I agree that we could do with much more detailed data for COVID-19, and the lack of it is very suspicious indeed, but for all cause deaths, there are quite a lot of data. It needs to be analysed meaningfully, if it can be trusted. If it can’t be trusted, there is nothing we can say about deaths.

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                    2. I very much value and enjoy your overshoot insights but I don’t want to discuss covid with you anymore, and I’d prefer you expressed your covid opinions elsewhere.

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                    3. That’s a shame. I’ll have to consider whether I post here again. I’ve appreciated the generally serious discussions but I’ve loads to do here, so freeing up time for those things would be good.

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                    4. You’ve been a great contributor here and it would be wonderful if you would continue, just not on covid issues.

                      The uncertainty around the important elements of covid are now gone and it is settled science like peak oil and climate change. I would also object to someone frequently questioning whether oil is finite or CO2 causes warming.

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  5. Here is a promising alternate theory to Dr. AJit Varki’s MORT for explaining human behavior that appears to be denial of reality, when in fact the behavior is simply how our “intelligence” evolved.

    I plan to watch a few more times before commenting on whether I think Varki’s MORT is in jeopardy.

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    1. I’ve already quoted it here, but will do it again:

      “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.”
      – Karl Marx

      We can change the reality! That is the main idea of our modern world. It has roots in Marx, Hegel … but it goes back to Plato and gnosticism.

      That’s why I think it’s crucial to study philosophy, because culture is more powerful than genetics/evolution.

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        1. Mainly energy/climate, resources/isolation, geography, religion/philosophy to name a few.
          Why traditional Japanese woodworking relies on sophisticated joinery instead of metal nails? Not because Japanese woodworkers are so brilliant, but because metal ores are rare in Japan. Simple as that.

          But my point is different. I don’t expect anything to change because the modern world is driven by the mind over reality ideology. We can change the world! Impossible is nothing! Just do it!

          The axiom is wrong, and you basically need denial to overcome consequences.

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          1. I think you may be saying something important but I do not understand it. I read over and over:

            The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it.

            and I still do not understand what Marx is saying. It’s probably a defect in my brain which also does not understand poetry.

            Is there anyone else following this thread that can translate for me?

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            1. Let me try to extremely simplify it.

              Before the Enlightenment the dominant world view was that everything was created by Almighty God. Philosophers tried to describe what’s going on or “interpret the world, in various ways” by discovering the natural law, the laws of physics, etc.

              Then came the Enlightement / anthropocentrism / idealism. Now man holds the central position in the world and can define it “The point, however, is to change it”, because it’s cruel, unfair, etc. Man decides what’s moral, what’s wrong, what’s right. There is some higher, “ideal form” of reality that is only accessible to our minds.

              And today even logic is oppressive, as it slows our progress towards heaven on earth (ideal world), powered by clean energy from renewables, with no pollution, “No need for greed or hunger. A brotherhood of man”

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            2. In the subject/object (humanity/world, I/others) interpretation of existence, I think, this quote means that: we should focus on changing the world, acting upon it (that’s our positive culture), instead of being “passive” (contemplative, fatalists, accepting) observers/interpreters of the world (that’s, to Marx, the defunct philosophies of the past).

              The idea that the world changes/evolves is quite recent (Darwin and all). (to be compared with the religious interpretation of a static world created in 7 days by God and perfect). The idea that we are the main drivers of change, that the little “self” (rational mind) could conquer the world and “better” it, even more.

              To a religious person (depends on the religion, protestantism is quite secular), the idea that we could improve the creation of God may seem simply preposterous. (And to humble rational mind too: after all what do we know of the consequence of any of our actions. Do we even know what’s good for our own selves?)

              We have pushed this idea of change, that we are the ones, with our rationality, who are able and entitled to change the world for the better, to its extreme limits.

              We now see the consequences: “Limits to growth”, could be titled “Limits to human change” or “Limits to human whim” or “Limits to human supremacy”.

              This will lead/is leading to a profound cultural change (there is no escaping that, if survival is an option). I’d like to believe into a culture of co-existence for survival and living. It is not a negation of our ability to reason and act. But a recognition that action should be measured, done while knowing our place in service to the whole planetary life, that most of the time we should just abstain and do no harm, let the other some breathing space.

              Kind of a new Copernican revolution.

              (And then, there are the interpretations of the world not based on subject/object duality, with echoes in modern physics 🙂

              BTW, I like what Anonymous is saying 🙂

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  6. Very good peak oil discussion with Andrii Zvorygin, Simon Michaux, and Steve St. Angelo.
    – why is diesel consumption down?
    – bankers are trying to cancel Michaux
    – the elite won’t survive
    – we are behaving like Easter Islander’s
    – you can’t fix stupid (eg. Doomberg)
    – Michaux still plans on disappearing for 10 years and then returning with a solution
    – farm raised seafood is not fit to eat
    – the green transition is a PR exercise to convice us there is a plan
    – the people who get promoted in the mining industry are not competent
    – wind turbines will start to fail in the next 5 years
    – the mining industry use to plan forward 30 years, now hedge funds control 75% of mining capital and planning focusses on the next quarter with no resource stewardship
    – central banks will soon get into trouble
    – BitCoin mining destroys 90% of capital invested in 2 years
    – target grain size for grinding ore has decreased from 150um to 10-20um which has exponentially increased energy required, and this is in addition to declining ore concentration
    – speaking truth damaged Michaux’s career
    – truth seeking is not compatible with wealth maximization
    – Europe farmers are working 60 hours/week compared to 35 hours/week average and are not making enough to live which explains the protests
    – EU does not have enough energy to run Ukraine war
    – Michaux plans to release soon a 500 page report he did for Hawaii looking at realistic plans to get off fossil energy – says it will be the biggest smackdown of renewables ever published – looks like he is using a similar approach to Hideaway

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    2. This was an excellent discussion. Not much hopium for anything rescuing us from energy decline. All of this seemed not be acknowledging the problems with a non-stable climate/collapse of agriculture going forward. Civilization has so many problems going forward. I do agree that the “After Skool” video above is a gem that I will bookmark and watch multiple times. I think it’s argument that curiosity and humility are more important than intelligence (and education).
      AJ

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  7. Preptip:

    If forced to choose only one food to help survive being shipwrecked on an isolated island, peanut butter would be a good choice because:
    – dense source of calories (90 per tbsp)
    – good source of protein (3g per tbsp)
    – excellent shelf life
    – no refrigeration
    – ready to eat with no cooking
    – compatible with vegetarian companions
    – delicious

    The members only warehouse I shop at sells peanut butter at (by far) the best price in town. Every once in a rare while they put peanut butter on sale for an even better price.

    Today I scored 14 Kg at CDN$4.10/Kg.

    In the past I have discussed the importance of creating a spreadsheet to track your food inventory and consumption patterns. Here is another good reason to maintain such a spreadsheet.

    Peanut butter for some strange reason has a short best-by date, usually only 6 months beyond the date of purchase. Because of this in years past I would probably have only bought 1 container of peanut butter on sale for fear of it going bad.

    Thanks to several years of data in my spreadsheet I know that peanut butter is perfectly good at least 2-3 years beyond the best-by date, and I know I consume about 0.5-1.0 Kg per month. Therefore today I confidently bought 14 Kg knowing that nothing will be wasted and there will never be a better price.

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    1. I remember some study a few years ago looked at people who essentially lived on peanut butter sandwiches (extremely picky eaters). The researchers thought these people would be highly deficient in many essential nutrients. Surprisingly, they were doing pretty well. Go peanuts

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    2. Unfortunately, you can’t bury peanut butter in the ground and get more peanut butter…

      Not saying it’s a bad strategy, just that it is very time-limited.

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  8. Good essay Steve. You are going to be a valuable resource when the SHTF.

    I loved the Amish part. Once again just another group of people that I ignorantly mocked during my lifetime. Same as Native Indians. Or some indigenous tribe that would be in the press because they killed a journalist or something.

    So sick how our culture trains us to ridicule/despise the “good ones” and praise/worship the “evil ones”.

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        1. Who knows. Because if you take a case you are shunned from the community and your entire family forever. And it’s mostly women who’ll be putting a case forward – and they have no agency whatsoever in these communities. So we really have no idea how common it is.

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        2. When I’ve listened to testimonials from Amish women who’ve left, they often referencing other women who have been through similar abuse to themselves.

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  9. If at all possible, move to a place with access to land to grow food. However you slice it, getting out of urban centers and figuring out how to be part of growing food, or learning a craft, or both, will be better than collapsing in place.

    What are we going to do about the the billions of people living in urban areas. Maybe a 1 child policy for couples living in urban/suburban areas?

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    2. As I mention at the start of the post, I think there is unlikely to be a global or national “we” that will cause a useful response to overshoot. I acknowledge that I am very fortunate to be where I am, but everyone, rural or urban, will have to assume the cavalry is not coming, and do what they can. Billions will suffer, and any lifeboat or trolley problem ethical dilemmas will be very local in nature.

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    3. “… 1 child policy …”

      When politicians attempt to make changes, they invariably fail to understand that abrupt change is often worse (in the short term) than no change. Prime Minister Liz Truss and her Chancellor of the Exchequer (Akwasi Kwarteng) discovered this very quickly.

      Getting population under control should have been completed decades ago. The name “one child policy” is itself wrong. What about people like myself that have zero children and my taxes are taken from me and (in part) are used to encourage teenage pregnancy and getting to the front of the social housing queue.

      Governments everywhere need to send a clear message – having fewer children, preferably none, will be rewarded via lower taxes. If people want lots of children, then it has to be without the current social subsidies.

      Reckless parenting should be rewarded with “snip, snip”.

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      1. Here’s your clear message- The House just passed a strongly bipartisan bill increasing the child tax credit. Still stalled in the Senate at this time. Many states are piling on as well. The millions of new residents was not enough. As Dave Cohen over at Decline of the Empire used to say, before he just gave up- “Jesus wept”.

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        1. Laugh, weep, seethe – there is no response that is rational, legal, reasonable.

          Maybe we could all write strongly worded letters – LOL.

          I do not want to witness the trauma that is inevitable – but there is no real choice. If I ever have to turn away people seeking help, I will offer them my thoughts and prayers – that seems to be the solution to all calamities from the shit stains in Washington DC and state capitals. Followed by vowing!

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    1. I think a lot of what he writes is hyperbole. When it comes to what NATO is going to do and how Russia is going to respond, I think he puts way too much stock in NATO. Individual countries in NATO contributing 10-20,000 troops that have difficulty communicating because of languages and have never fought together are a recipe for disaster. Andrei Martyanov has far superior analysis of what Russia is capable of than Canadian pepper. IMHO.
      AJ

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      1. Agree, lots of chaff to sift from Canadian Prepper’s wheat. I frequently watch Martyanov but it feels like he too sometimes exaggerates the capabilities of Russia’s new weapons.

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        1. I disagree. Most pundits in the west, even the military ones don’t have the rigorous education in STEM the Russia requires of it military officers (like Martyanov). Hence, most western pundits are captive of the meme that Russia is the old USSR and has second rate weapons when the West’s assets are overpriced crap made by the military industrial defense congress cartel. Better to prepare for every contingency is the path Russia appears to be taking whereas the west just doubles down on propaganda and messaging.
          AJ

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          1. I agree with your points. I was talking about a few times I’ve heard Martyanov talk about gee whiz star wars type technology that seemed very unrealistic. Most of the time he is very good.

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          2. the West’s assets are overpriced crap

            The West’s response to Yemen throwing a lawnmower-with-wings at a ship, is a half million dollar surface to air missile. Add in myocarditis and numerous other maladies. Season with ‘woke’ and an inability to avoid collisions.

            The west richly deserves whatever fate awaits.

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              1. Indeed. The wheels are coming off …….. and doors and panels and sudden depressurization and seat movements causing steep dives and ….

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  11. Great article Steve. I can so relate. I grew up on an off-grid farm. Have worked for 10 years professionally in the cities before moving back to live in the country. Despite my upbring of raising animals, veges, and living off grid, I still find country living quite challenging – in terms of the time and skills needed to do it successfully. Starting with small steps is indeed good advice.

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  13. I left the following comment:

    “Interesting but you missed the most important point. None of the climate change solutions being proposed will help. Therefore using a doomer message won’t make a difference to the outcome.

    To make the future less bad we need to shrink the economy and population and I’ll bet we’d need a seriously doomy message to have any chance of getting people on board for that prescription.”

    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-03-19/how-to-talk-about-climate-change-and-the-problem-with-doomerism/

    If we are all doomed, maybe it doesn’t matter if I skip my vaccination, buy a Hummer, and lie on my couch on election day. I’ll just post catastrophic memes for clicks on social media as the world burns around me. At least I’ll get a few dopamine hits before it’s all gone.

    In fact, this is pretty much what we found in a massive new study that we published in Science Advances this month! To help figure out the precise impact of climate doomerism and compare it with alternative messages, we recently completed one of the largest experiments ever conducted on climate change behavior.

    Our findings revealed that doom and gloom messaging was highly effective for stimulating climate change information sharing, like posting on the internet or social media, where negativity reigns. As you can see in our figure below, doomerism (ie negative emotions) was the single most effective strategy for increasing social media sharing.

    However, doom and gloom messaging was the absolute worst for motivating action and among the worst for changing climate change beliefs or support for climate change policies. In fact, negative emotions backfired on effortful behavior—making people significantly less likely to take action for the environment compared to a neutral control condition.

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    1. I support Jack Alpert’s plan so I guess I’m in favor of not overloading the lifeboats provided that a fair random lottery is used to decide who gets a seat in the lifeboat.

      Assuming we don’t implement Alpert’s plan then I’m in favor of helping the poor countires provided that they first implement a plan to reduce their birthrates to below replacement.

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    1. I clicked to see the headlines around 4:15 PM CDT. There was news about Wall Street, celebrity gossip, a mother who left her baby home alone for ten days. The only remotely climate related thing was about Biden strengthening tailpipe emissions regulations. They did have something about settler colonialism and Gaza, but nothing about Ukraine or mRNA vaccines.

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    1. Hi Folks,

      In 1982 I lived four months in Haute Volta, now Burkina Faso.

      At the time, HV had the lowest per-capita income of any country in the world.
      Nobody was starving, because it was a sharing culture.
      (There was one area of kwashikori, where people weren’t getting adequate protein.)

      I’ve lived/travelled in nine countries.
      Overall, the people of HV were the happiest, most joyful I’ve ever met.
      Sure, they would like to have more and better food, some modern conveniences, etc., but
      were satisfied and thankful for what they had.

      There was a suicide in HV while I was there.

      When people heard about this, they said,
      Somebody killed this young man!
      ) No, he killed himself.
      You mean he was gutting a chicken and cut himself badly?
      ) No, he intentionally killed himself.
      . . . But . . . how is that possible?

      A single (reported)suicide in four months in a country of over 7 million people.
      (And yes, the number has likely gone up since 1982.)

      The world happiness report is from the UN and I’m curious if there’s a
      developed world bias to their criteria?

      Thanks and good health, Weogo

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      1. Thanks for sharing the nice story Weogo.

        When I was a child my country Canada consumed less than half what we consume today per person and life was very good.

        The problem I worry about is the debt we have built up which will explode everything when the economy starts to shrink in earnest.

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      2. I’ve heard lots of stories like this from various countries. Something definitely doesn’t add up. Maybe there’s a difference between societies that are poor but in industrial civilization, and societies that are completely outside of it. Maybe some cultures lie about their happiness. Maybe what counts as “happy” is different culture to culture. I will do some digging on this because I’m curious.

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  18. reedk020351@gmail.com

    Dear Sirs,

    There are Five Cornerstones of Independence. I am introducing you here to the first. This content is twelve pages. The objective is decentralized civilization. The types of people that this plan is intended for share that objective for sovereign, egalitarian communities and their confederations. I look forward to your evaluations.
    You and your family be well and be in Good Spirits!

    With respect, Reed C. Kinney

    The link to my book is included below.

    [p.26:] Author’s Introduction

    The Five Cornerstones of Independence

    Independent community is composed of five functioning components, the five cornerstones of independence:

    Community structured dialogical, consensus-based decision-making processes. It is understood that all organization needs an executive function. Decentralized organization is structured so that the executive function of civic organization is always under the control of the people.
    [You can go directly to Appendix C of this content.]

    [Pages 30-31:] WHAT IS DIALOGUE?

    Dialogue is realized among twelve or fewer adults. Its purpose is to empower the members with semi-self-sufficiency through their independent, pragmatic, concerted action. Dialogue facilitates unanimity, group decision making and its realizations without authoritarianism.

    A. Members dialogue in order to reach an agreed understanding regarding what particular problem they share, which they perceive to be pressing and solvable. The objects of dialogue are their own and whatever problem or problems they decide to solve is discretionary. However, they must be consistent in their aim to generate maximum independence, discussed below. Decentralized Economic Social Organization, DESO, content is designed to guide them towards that objective.
    B. They agree on what action they can deploy among themselves to solve that problem.
    C. They organize their efforts and solve that problem.
    Members agree to pool capital accessible to them to form their mutual community bank, MCB. An accountant records the donations made by each member. [External fiscal and material support is welcomed, and is solicited.]

    Members investigate productive enterprises they may purchase, or that they may develop.

    a. Proposals are written by members, with their costs itemized, reliable sources identified, overhead calculated, margin of profit calculated, market sustainability is determined, the needed skills of its personnel are ascertained, and so on.
    b. The various plans are dialogued by members until one is chosen as pragmatic to their needs.
    c. They use funds from their mutual community bank, MCB, for capitalizing their first Public Productive Enterprise, which employs some of their members.

    1a. The profit from the Public Productive Enterprise is used to keep the operation going, to compensate its operators, and to pay back those who donated to the project through their MCB.
    2b. Subsequent profits above overhead are deposited in the MCB public account.

    The first Public Productive Enterprise may be a simple operation, and ethically aligned with members’ values.

    Initially, its primary purpose may be for accessing conventional money for the mutualistic group in order to provide them with leverage. And, subsequent group investments may serve the same purposes.

    Examples of ingenious, appropriate industry – Public Productive Enterprises – are provided by Marcin Jakubowski (1). Pragmatic plans for low cost construction, and production are widely available – each mutualistic group decides how best to initiate its first Cooperative.

    Readily available, intensive, food production systems are open to investigation and actualization.

    The aim of each group of three to five mutualistic families (nuclear groups) is independence. It is convenient to begin with such groups, because they are pragmatic and doable among interested people.

    [pp. 32-34:] 2. CIVIC ORGANIZATION

    Individual Nuclear Groups are too small to generate the type of independence needed for actualizing genuine communities. Genuine community is a structured proposition.
    When two or more groups of mutualistic, three to five families begin to coordinate their productive efforts, for their respective benefits, they do so through their Community Coordinating Committee, CCC.

    The Community Coordinating Committee, CCC, is composed of members of each respective group of mutualistic, three to five families. Their functions include receiving the propositions for concerted action from the members of each respective Nuclear Group. (Each proposal is signed by a number of members to demonstrate that is was dialogued and approved prior to its submission to the CCC.) The civic format is flexible relevant to the needs of each community. However, I suggest that when a set of propositions are received by the CCC that they abbreviate each of them in order that they be drafted onto ballots. The first set of ballots is delivered to the respective groups of mutualistic, three to five families: one ballot for each group.

     Since each of those mutualistic groups of families is respectively sovereign, we can refer to them as Nuclear Groups, NG.
    The first ballot is discussed, dialogued, by each respective Nuclear Group. They decide the relative importance of each proposition on their ballot. A proposition may be granted a value of seventy percent consensus, or eighty, or ninety. How each Nuclear Group reasons the consensus value, or “weight,” of each proposition is up to them.

    The ballots return to the CCC. For example, the CCC observes that of all the “consensus weights” a proposal had received from the Nuclear Groups, most of them were eighty percent. Thus, that proposition will be allotted an eighty percent consensus weight on the subsequent ballot. The subsequent ballot will list the same propositions that were on the former ballot (the “weigh in ballot”), but each will bear its consensus weight on the “voting ballot”. In that manner, the community determines the relative value of each proposition.

    A proposition that the community wants passed, or approved in a hurry, may receive a seventy percent consensus weight. An important proposition may receive an eighty percent consensus weight. A proposition that will require an important concerted effort by all members may receive a ninety percent consensus weight.

    When the actual voting ballots are sent by the CCC to each Nuclear Group, each NG discusses and dialogues each proposition until they either approve it, or not.
    The CCC receives the ballots from the NG. If a proposition that had an eighty percent consensus weight was approved by eighty percent, or more, of the NG, it is approved. The same process is applied to all propositions.

    In this manner, a community is managed by its members without centralized power, further explained below. (See: APPENDIX C – COMMUNITY DIALOGICAL CONSENSUS BASED DECISION MAKING PROCESSES, INSPIRED BY MARK CURTIS KINNEY II)

    DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUTUAL COMMUNITY BANK, MCB

    The NGs consolidate part, or all, of their respective NG mutual savings into the Mutual Community Bank, MCB. Each contribution by each NG is accounted for, recorded, and monitored by MCB accountability. The MCB is a Core Public Productive Enterprise. It belongs to the community. It is operated by community members that have the skills needed for its accounting functions. (See: APPENDIX A – MUTUAL COMMUNITY BANKS, MCB, IN DECENTRALIZED ECONOMIC SOCIAL ORGANIZATION, DESO, INSPIRED BY THE CONCEPTS OF MARK CURTIS KINNEY II)
    CCC ACTIONS ARE COMMUNITY AUTHORIZED

    When the CCC is authorized to capitalize a proposition that was community approved it withdraws the required, capital amount from the MCB public accounts to actualize the project in conjunction with the project’s developers. (Procedures are developed among members.)

    The community project, most valued, most prioritized, by the community is allotted the first capitalization. The order of importance, as agreed on by members, determines which projects are funded by the community, relevant to what the community believes it can afford. These decisions are come about through the community-dialogical-consensus-based-decision-making-processes described above, or variants as determined by each community.

    THE CCC DOES NOT HAVE EXECUTIVE POWER

    Each community decides, among its members, how its MCB community accounts are used. The CCC functions to record, capitalize, and to monitor, the public concerted actions taken by the community members. Decentralized Economic Social Organization, DESO, Civic Organization precludes the centralization of power. Power is shared equally among the NG, their Civil Organization.

    CIVIC-ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION

    Core Public Productive Enterprises are the primary objective to be realized with capital generated from the Public Productive Enterprises mentioned above in the Civil Organization section. Public Productive Enterprises may be actualized whenever a community needs them, and are included in community Civic-Economic Organization, meaning that their management is regulated through the CCC. But their primary purpose is to generate the funds needed to actualize community Core Public Productive Enterprises.

    1. CORE PUBLIC PRODUCTIVE ENTERPRISES

    Core Public productive enterprises serve two functions.
    1. They are the primary providers of the Guaranteed Minimum Standard of Service, GMSS.
    2. They are the economic foundation of independence for all community members.

    THE GUARANTEED MINIMUM STANDARD OF SERVICE, GMSS
    The GMSS is composed of the essential, minimum components of a modern, healthful life …accessible to all community members.

     Community land and property acquisition is among the first challenges that may be addressed by community members and may be among the first objectives met with the capital generated by community public productive enterprises. Some members may own land that they make accessible to the community through contractual agreements with the CCC. Members locate accessible land and property. Through dialogical, consensus-based, community decision making processes conclusions are agreed on and action is taken by the community to access land and property. Land and property belonging to the community is community managed through the CCC.

    [pp. 88-91:] DIALOGICAL FORMATS

    The first dialogical session is for personal introductions and “speaking from the heart,” creating friendships, and sharing the intention to work together towards community. Subsequent sessions pertain to developing their priorities relevant to working-with-each-other-for-each-other to create their Nuclear Groups and their civic organization.
    The whole schema for the creation of Nuclear Groups and the establishment of community in decentralized civilization is charted out before its members; becoming their “over soul” that takes on a “life of its own” as they embark upon the creative challenge of bringing it into reality. In order to fulfill its function, the dialogical, consensus-based decision-making processes need that greater purpose.

    Provided here are examples of dialogical formats. The Listening Circle and the Wisdom Circle function in Nuclear Groups in real community.

    The Listening Circle format is a good beginning point, as well as a good format, among others, for Nuclear Group dialogical consensus-based decision-making process. These are flexible arrangements among leaders and all people who take part in planning and practicing their dialogical formats.
    Leaders have wisdom, knowledge, and skill, coupled with the sincere desire to work with all members to establish their unanimity relevant to concerted plans of action and desired results.
    The community councils of the community confederation use dialogical decision-making processes.
    “HOW TO DO A LISTENING CIRCLE
    This form of dialogue was used by Native American councils. It is practiced with many names and variations — talking stick circle, wisdom circle, council process, and others. I call it listening circle because of its trademark quality of listening — a deep listening to one’s deepest self, to the group mind and to Spirit, as well as to each other. We can even listen deeply when we are talking, we can be aware of the words we are saying as we say them, of the way our bodies feel, of the stream of semi-formed thoughts and emotions out of which our words are coming, and of the receptive group space into which we are sending them.

    Imagine now that we are doing a listening circle. You and I, and a number of friends, are seated in a circle. We tell a few newcomers what to expect. When we are all clear on what will be happening, our circle starts. We sit in silence. A stick (or some other object that can be held) sits in the middle of our circle. A woman, who feels moved to speak picks up the stick, holds it as she speaks, and we all listen to what she says. No one speaks unless they have the stick. We engage in no crosstalk or conversation in the usual sense. When the speaker is done, she passes the stick to the man on her left who ponders it for a moment before speaking. After a few minutes he passes the stick to the person on his left and so it goes. The stick continues around the circle, with each of us speaking in turn and the rest of us listening. When our scheduled circle time is up — or when we pass the stick around the whole circle with none of us speaking — the stick is returned to the center and our circle is done.

    That is the whole process. At its heart, it is that simple. …
    GOING AROUND THE CIRCLE
    To the extent we honor the stick (or other object) and its role, we do not need chairpersons and facilitators; the stick, itself, in its journey around the circle, shapes the structure and quality of our dialogue. Sometimes, though, someone sets the tone and gets things started, and someone signals the end of the meeting.

    As the focus of our attention moves around and around the circle, it spirals down into deeper shared understandings, richer shared meanings, and a growing sense of a shared, evolving story. Although sometimes we go around only once, our best circles result from going around at least 3 or 4 times, with people speaking briefly if necessary, to permit more rounds. Brevity can be immensely powerful. It is also important to sustain everyone’s attention. Sometimes we time our turns, often 1-3 minutes each, rarely as long as 6-10 minutes. A well-functioning circle should help those who usually speak a lot say less and those who usually do not speak up to say more.
    It helps to remember that the essence of these circles is listening and speaking from the heart. Head-tripping, pronouncements, chatter, posturing and run-on monologues of the sort that make up so much of ordinary conversation only serve to disrupt the atmosphere of the circle. On the other hand, silence (2) — so avoided in ordinary conversation — often helps deepen the atmosphere.

    We can learn …[much] about silence from Quakers, whose traditional meetings for worship have little or no ritual, leadership, or conversation, nor do they take turns around a circle. Rather, they sit in a silence which they perceive as being filled with Spirit. From time to time a member who feels “called” (moved from within by Spirit, by their “inner light”) rises and speaks. When finished, they simply sit down. No one responds. The pregnant silence settles once more among and within the congregation. Many circles try to nurture this spirit in their midst, at least occasionally, with or without a formal period of silence or the religious beliefs the Quakers bring to it. In a formal circle, anyone can create silence in their turn simply by holding the object and not speaking. A person can also skip their turn, passing on the object after only a moment.
    IN CONCLUSION ABOUT DIALOGUE
    Clearly, much skill, consciousness, and experience can be developed in the process of doing circles, and yet the basics are incredibly simple. All of us can promote the basic circle format and spirit wherever we are, in our families, spiritual communities, schools, workplaces.

    Even the simplest, most unsophisticated circles are experienced as revolutionary by people who’ve known little more than the hectic, banal, adversarial or repressed communication modes typical of our mainstream culture.

    You don’t have to do anything fancy to use the circle process — just get together with some friends or associates and take turns speaking from the heart as best as you can; use a stapler as a talking-stick if that’s what’s handy. The important thing is to just do it. You will be amazed at how powerful it is. Even before you learn how to do them “well,” in nine out of ten circles the rewards will pay back your efforts a thousand-fold.”

    I encourage Nuclear Groups as well as their nuclear families to use the Wisdom Circle Format for reaching unanimity efficiently, relative to their concerted decision making.
    “To encourage and facilitate the use of circles, Wisdom Circles has formulated a set of guidelines that we call the Ten Constants. These constants have been inspired by councils of indigenous peoples, informed by support and dialogue groups, and drawn from our own experience. The Ten Constants create a safe container that allows participants to tap their innate capacity to relate to each other in a context of wisdom and compassion.” (3)
    http://www.acocreativepath.com/wisdom-circles-constants/

    (See: APPENDIX C – COMMUNITY DIALOGICAL CONSENSUS BASED DECISION MAKING PROCESSES, INSPIRED BY MARK CURTIS KINNEY II)
    [pp. 96-99:] Appendix C

    Dialogical Consensus Based Community Decision Making Processes

    Inspired by Mark Curtis Kinney II
    Consensus based community decision making obliges each community to duplicate itself whenever its population becomes too large for consensus-based self-management. The type of decision making that maintains mutualism is unanimity. Structured unanimity means that all proposals from the community for community action must be community approved for community support.

    Each proposal is signed by twelve community members at large to assure that it was dialogued and ascertained viable, and in keeping with community values, before it is submitted to the Community Coordinating Committee, CCC. Community proposals received by the CCC are listed on rating ballots for weighing each proposal. Proposal consensus weights are decided in dialogue by each sovereign, Nuclear Group, and the consensus weights are rounded out to 90%, 80%, and 70%. An approval weight is assigned each proposal. (1)

To do this, each Nuclear Group, of no more than twelve (or thirteen) decision makers, dialogues each recommendation for community action and can vote, perhaps by a show of hands, to assign the approval weight, consensus weight, which they allot to each proposal. Or a community can create more stringent, consensus-based decision-making procedures for Nuclear Groups to assign consensus weights. 

The CCC tallies the consensus weights provided by the Nuclear Groups, and assigns each proposal its, respective, community approved consensus weight. For example, if the issue for investing in the purchase of a community mobile, water well drilling rig received more 70% weights than any other weights, that proposal would be allotted a 70% consensus weight.

    Then, the voting ballots are drawn up by the CCC and each proposal is printed with its community designated consensus weight printed beside it. Each Nuclear Group receives a single ballot. Each proposal issue is openly dialoged and voted on by each Nuclear Group.

    Each proposal that carries a 90% approval weight, consensus weight, must be approved by at least 90% of the members of a respective Nuclear Group to be approved by that Nuclear Group. Of twelve voters, eleven must approve. Among ten voters, nine must approve, and so on.

    Each proposal with an 80% consensus weight must be approved by at least 80% of the members of the Nuclear Group. Of twelve voters, ten must approve. Among ten voters, eight must approve.

    Each proposal with a 70% consensus weight must receive the approval of at least 70% of the members of the respective Nuclear Group. Of twelve voters, eight must approve. Among ten voters, seven must approve.

    When the ballots are returned to the CCC for counting and recording, the proposals are decided in the following manner:
    For example, three hundred member families of various sizes may comprise 50 Nuclear Groups.
    Each proposal voted on with a 90% approval weight would require the approval of at least 45 Nuclear Groups.
    Each proposal with an 80% approval weight would require the approval of at least 40 Nuclear Groups.
    Each proposal with 70% approval weight would require the approval of at least 35 Nuclear Groups.

      Approval weights reflect the degree of importance a proposal has for the community. For example, if the proposal to invest 150,000 FRN for the purchase of a mobile, water well drilling rig is important to the community that proposal may receive an approval weight of 70% to assure all members that the proposal will be approved. Or its level of importance may take the form of a 90% approval weight to assure members that nearly all members are committed to actualizing the proposal. The people base their decisions on what they prioritize and what they think that they can afford.

Important matters can be dialogued by community members on occasions when all Nuclear Groups come together with their respective speakers to explain the verity and pragmatics of their respective, prospective plans during “Community Hearings,” prior to each Nuclear Group going to one of their respective homes to dialogue among themselves before weighing their ballot or before casting their vote. Each community forms their organizational structures so that everyone can be involved in participatory, community policy making.

Consensus weights are decided among all Nuclear Groups, and stem from their independent judgments. Thus, the community itself determines the relative importance of each proposal that the community brings to the table. If a proposal is generally supported, it may receive an 80% consensus weight. 

If a proposal with an 80% consensus weight is not approved by 80% or more of the Nuclear Groups, it is not acted on by the CCC. The same holds for all proposals on the voting ballot.

Community self-management is directed through the decision-making structures described here, not to the exclusion of slight variants of that structure made by the people. Community survival is contingent on the permanent service of consensus-based decision-making processes. 

All of the suggestions I make are “objects of dialogue.” Every community decides how best to manage their internal, unanimous, community decision making processes. Nonetheless, the guiding principle is that structured unanimity must be maintained. However, unanimity only functions when a community population is small enough that general consensus can be arrived at through dialogical decision-making processes. Due to technology and knowledge providing sovereignty for smaller communities, communities may deploy other modes for actualizing organized consensus not suggested here. 

The consensus-based decision-making process as the sole means of community decision making is fundamental and necessary for the actualization of decentralized economic social organization. Without that component, genuine participatory community self-management cannot exist. Nor would there be any means to self-regulate each community’s population. With consensus-based decision making a community’s population stays within the boundaries of personal accountability among member families, which is a fundamental component or attribute of genuine, human scale community. 

Individualized conventional democracy as it is used by representational government, and its political parties, maintains a stratified society. It is corruptible, divisive, and it lends itself to the subjugation of mass populations. By contrast, the mutualistic economy described here demands the inter-personal accountability provided by structured, dialogical, consensus-based community decision making processes. 

Human scale, community organization provides the benefit of the direct, mutual support needed by everyone to grow in individuated self-development. Human scale community is prerequisite for sane, existential living. Humanness is exercised through dialogue in the context of community. The vital sectors of each community’s economy that provide security and wellbeing are shared equally among community members.

    Community self-management, with inter-personal accountability, as described here, is accomplished only in the context of a limited population. Consensus-based, community decision making processes enforce a limited population to maintain the permanence of community.

    Entry level community people enjoy the permanence of their first community, while their young folks create their own community.
    You can see and download the PDF of my book… DTN member, Barbara Williams was kind enough to make this link:

    Download a book by Reed Kinney

    Reconstruction of the Indigenous for Contemporary Times…

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      1. I remember my technical writing instructor in university was offended and made fun of me in front of the whole class when I addressed her as Madam in a cover letter for a class assignment. I was the only engineer in the class and got the top mark.

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    2. Hey Reed. I made it all the way thru your post. Most of it went way over my head. But I really dig the “Listening Circle” stuff.

      Question: Does your community live by these methods? If so, what does that lifestyle look like? (especially from a consumer/consumption level).

      Kind of feels like a bonus this month. 2 guest essays for the price of one. 😊

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    3. My question for Reed, How do we get to a ‘degrowth’ situation that is fast enough, that becomes equitable without the whole system of civilization collapsing?

      Secondly, why would whoever in charge of your local area, as in the biggest, strongest ‘leader’, want to share decision making equitably as they survived by being in charge?

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  19. Yet another (possible) new elephant in the covid room. It makes my head spin keeping track of how many things are wrong in the covid story.

    Dr. Philip McMillan discusses a new paper published last month. The opening sentence of the abstract explains the problem:

    The bacteriophage behavior of SARS-Cov-2 during the acute and post-COVID-19 phases appears to be an important factor in the development of the disease.

    “Bacteriophage behavior” is the equivalent of living in a burning building that everyone is ignoring.

    Viruses that infect humans do not normally infect bacteria. This means covid is a different beast and is equivalent to finding cyanide in your cup of tea at work. You would be naive to assume the cyanide was not deliberately put in your tea.

    Dr. McMillan reviews parallels with the 1980’s timeline for HIV. It took 7 years after HIV was identified as spreading in the community before funds were allocated to investigate prevention methods. HIV took 15 months after infection to present with symptoms. Imagine the damage from HIV if, like covid, it instead took 4 years after infection to present.

    The unusual bacteriophage behavior may explain why antibiotics were effective for treating covid. Not discussed here, but I recall they banned the use of antibiotics, as well as other effective treatments, and instead mandated deadly treatments like remdesivir, midazolam, and ventilators.

    McMillan concludes by saying anyone who underestimates the threat we face is not thinking clearly.

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    1. Hi Rob,

      It’s been a busy week but I would like to think about this a bit and get back to you. Not that I have any microbiology expertise but only my general systems way of thinking when trying to tie in medical evidence given what we already we know with high probability. At this point I think it is very safe to say that there are multiple mechanisms going on that are resulting in the extraordinary and continuing increase of morbidity across the board, many here can now add their own anecdotal stories of people we know getting sick and dying. After these next couple years, these increased incidences will become the new normal and be absorbed into the stats, and the trend may be to deliberately forget the baseline numbers prior to the “event”.

      My general medical advice most related to this bacteriophage inquiry, consider your gut microbiome (consisting of bacteria, viruses, and fungi) one of your best defences against infection and disease and do everything possible to maintain its good balance. Processed foods, lack of fibre, sugar, antibiotic use, these are the main culprits of gut flora imbalance. A diet that is predominantly plant or animal based produces distinctly different gut flora colonies but it is the balance and how your body reacts to it that determines if it is beneficial or not to each particular individual.

      Great to see everyone on this new page. Steve, your walking your talk is awesome and super inspirational! I am so heartened to know that you and your wife have been living out your ideals and taking such pleasure, learning and fulfilment through your real life experiments, season after season. Thank you so much for sharing and may the harvest for body, mind, and spirit continue to be abundant.

      Namaste, friends.

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  23. Mark your calendar for next Sunday March 31. That’s when China will invade Taiwan.

    Gaia, did you say April was best for an invasion due to currents, tides, and weather?

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    1. Hi Rob,

      Ooooh, this could be really bad. Really really bad. Like TEOTWAWKI level bad.

      I read this after the bacteriophage entry, now my gut has just done a little flip and this has become far and wide the most important news of our foreseeable future, in my honest opinion.

      It was here on your blog sometime last year that I read a military expert (and I can’t recall who or exactly when) say that the only possible months for a major sea incursion across the Taiwan Strait was March/April and August, and I assume that was because of the logistics of tides and other weather pattern factors. That made a huge impression upon me when I first read it and now the time is upon us, if it is to be this year.

      China has always made it clear that Taiwan was a redline and unification with the mainland is absolutely existential (just like Russia with its clear intent with Ukraine) but woe to those who do not heed and actively defy this warning. Given the geopolitical maelstrom that is our planet and the climate crisis playing out, it makes absolute sense tactically to take the island (and everything it stands for, mainly getting the US military out of the region as the primary goal, shutting down the US economy after the inevitable sanctions which will further castrate the beast, and gathering all the spoils which include the main prize of the microchip industry upon which everything now depends) now before things deteriorate further. It’s never going to get better and now is when leaders still think they have some control over the situation, in war it is almost always advantageous to strike first especially when the other side is not ready. They don’t need a reason, they already have told us Taiwan is theirs and theirs to take at any time, their time. Out loud the time frame was supposed to be before 2027-8, but given what is happening, it makes sense to spring it ahead even if not totally ready. The West is even less ready, totally embroiled in two major conflicts, the US facing near civil war with the election, and everyone still completely dependent upon China for goods if which shut off overnight would signal sure economic collapse, and then worse aftermath. I think China and Russia think the West is nearly ready to self-implode, and this could be the linchpin move to permanently recalibrate the world powers and their resource base, once and for all. I have always had it in my mind that Russia and Ukraine was to be the entree course to get this moveable feast started, and now the main course will be dished out just when the West already had a belly full and can’t take much more.

      I would like to think some more over this after going through the new intel, but if it is to happen, the writing is on the wall and the dates are our doom.

      Sorry to be in haste now, gotta pick up my husband from the bus. Crazy how we still fashion a “normal” life in the midst of everything that heralds doom. I am still thinking we will sell my mother’s house, FFS!

      Namaste, friends.

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      1. So, by April, the West could be facing a 3 front war. (One in Eastern Europe, one in the Middle East and one in East Asia).

        What happens to companies like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD if China invades Taiwan? The semiconductor industry should not have put all of its eggs in one basket, but only 3 companies can afford to manufacture the most advanced chips: TSMC (Taiwan), Samsung (South Korea) and Intel (US).

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        1. Everything will be fine as long as the US does not try to prevent China from reuniting a rogue province that split off in their civil war. The Chinese are mainly interested in business and will sell us the chips if the US doesn’t blow everything up.

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                1. Yes, I agree. I’d add intelligent with a deep understanding of systems, thermodynamics, and ecology.

                  I was also going to add defective denial genes but I think your description implies that.

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                1. Sadly, it sure looks that way. I don’t understand why but every single western country has an embarrasing moron leading it today. Perhaps it’s brain clots from mRNA? Or maybe as Dave Pollard proposes, unfixable overshoot problems are making everyone crazy?

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                  1. It is sometimes difficult to remain sane, being aware that this sword of Damocles is hanging over the Biosphere and our leaders are for the most part doing nothing about it other than cosmetic acts.

                    If you were an overshoot aware politician and you knew that you couldn’t speak about overshoot publicly and you couldn’t do much to address the situation, wouldn’t you go crazy?

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                    1. I’d do the right thing and speak the truth and probably woudn’t be relected.

                      Maybe if enough leaders did this we could move the needle and make it acceptable to discuss reality and what must be done.

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                  2. I wouldn’t want either an autocracy or an idiocracy. However, with an ideocracy, there is at least some chance of having some influence over who gets to make the rules. Sadly, it seems as though most of the world is becoming autocratic.

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        1. Hello Rob,

          Where did you find that date of the Putin/Xi meeting in Beijing? Just tried to scour the usual MSN sites and found reference to meeting in later May but also earlier could be the case, things are unfolding in real time and quickly. And today, even in our Australian news we have this piece

          https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-21/david-cameron-730-china-blockade-taiwan-calamitous-gaza-war/103615650

          so it looks like we are supposed to wake up to this and it isn’t a drill anymore. It really feels like everyone is trying to work out their end game moves and the choices remaining are becoming more obvious and the need to make them in the right timing is critical.

          I don’t think things will be remotely rosy even if the West manages to withhold the nuclear option or even if they refrain from outright engagement–all it will take to upend our current world is for China to immediately halt sending goods or even the threat of that should send the markets and the masses spiralling out of control. That is why I think China is confident that this will be a relatively bloodless campaign, any sanctions to them will be shooting ourselves in the feet and as long as they have the autocracy to maintain their own law and order (which they already showed possible through their extensive Covid lockdowns) and be able to feed their own citizens through the early part of the crisis (and they have stockpiled grain and rice for years for this very eventuality) they can wait it out whilst the West implodes. Besides, they have Russia as their backstop for fuel and grain, and once again, in Xi’s congratulatory message to Putin’s re-election, he highlighted the “no limits friendship” of the two countries. Of all the world powers, China has the most munitions now as all other countries have been spending their stocks down with the two world conflicts. Now even MSN reports on how technologically advanced China really is in weaponry and how that should concern us. As if we should have the monopoly on the toys, the hubris of the West in this and all other things is something that really grates upon the Chinese psyche. It would be very unwise to forget that they do have old scores to settle and this is the Year of the Dragon, after all.

          I would be very interested to re-visit that post in which the window of March/April and/or August was first mentioned, sorry Rob that I can’t remember who or when but it was from a high profile military analyst. Anyway, perhaps it doesn’t really matter, it will all be revealed soon enough. 

          Namaste.

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          1. I saw it mentioned in the Twitter threads I previously linked. When I do my own search it says his next trip is planned for May. Maybe we can relax. 🙂

            I agree with your analysis however I’m not so confident the west will behave rationally.

            Taiwan is not the west’s business. Just as the Texas border dispute with the US federal government is not China’s business.

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  24. Just read Dave Pollard’s site ‘How to Save the World’, which I go to every now and then. He has some great stuff to say including this from his latest post…

    “The circumstances they (and we) are facing in this ever-more-complex and polycrisis-suffering world are such that competence is impossible. We are struggling with predicaments, not problems, and predicaments have no solutions, only outcomes. No one is ‘equipped’ with the competence to fix what cannot be fixed.”

    The “they” are leaders/elite/people in charge..

    I once had the opportunity to work with/around and against people at the top, Mayors/government ministers/head of public service departments etc. I found them all just like the rest of us, likes, dislikes, motives and agendas, ass covering to always make them look good in their positions. If they had to spend $25M to cover deliberate mistakes they made (as in trying to hoodwink public, forgetting to invite certain people to important meetings etc, and were found out, then no problems…

    They have just as many worries about the future but perceive they have more to lose, so will do extraordinary ‘things’, usually involving other peoples money, to keep the status quo going (ie them in power)…

    https://howtosavetheworld.ca/2024/03/20/incompetent/

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    1. Understood and agreed for overshoot issues like economic problems, unsustainable debt, inflation, and climate change.

      I do not forgive our leaders for tolerating Gaza genocide, or provoking an unnecessary war that killed 500K+ Ukrainians, or transfecting children with mRNA.

      I expect that as long as our voting system continues to work, most leaders will be thrown out after one term from now on because, as you say, none will be able to fix the problems.

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      1. It’s impossible to forgive our western leaders of “democracy”, “freedom”, “rules based order”, “progressive values”, and “technological innovation” for the Gaza genocide they are funding and permitting to happen.

        https://indi.ca/writing-when-wrong/

        The evil at this point is beyond evil. Bombing one hospital (actually the 20th, but who’s counting) and lying about it, then bombing hundreds more. Bombing bakeries and opening fire on people looking for flour, not once, but over and over, till massacres become mundane. Cementing over water supplies and bombing water tanks. Cutting off supplies of insulin and oxygen, killing the disabled, the sick, the young, the old. The Nazis would be proud. It’s a true holocaust, broadcast to the world.

        What I see now is that every condemnation Empire, heaped on Hitler, it was a confession. It was a promise. The entire premise of the White Empire’s existence is genocidal violence, Hitler’s only mistake was applying it to Europe. Colonialism is and was a slim percentage of people, their greed incarnated as corporations, cannibalizing the solar south, leaving their own people out in the cold, eventually upsetting the temperature of the whole world. The Empire is visibly dying, it visibly has no clothes, but still the killing goes on. It can still kill innocent men, women, and children and while it can, it will, so the killing goes on and on. White Empire has no other meaning, no other knowledge, this is its metabolic process and everything else is just marketing. The White Empire has already lost in any objective sense, they’re just taking as many people with them as possible. It’s a race to see if thermonuclear or thermodynamic forces get them first. And the epicenter of all this is Palestine, a gaping wound at the heart of the world.

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  25. Hideaway today schools the not so bright boys @ POB.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-march-18-2024/#comment-772216

    We have to remember that the IPCC models are all political, as in ‘agreed’ by the politicians from the chief scientists input in the various countries.

    There are plenty of actual climate scientists that have publicly stated that the IPCC is totally underplaying the changes that are actually happening.

    Most models also only look at one changing variable, making the false assumption of ‘everything else being equal’. It’s the same type of nonsense economists use in models and for that matter most scientific work on any type of dynamic system. Likewise in the energy field..

    Has anyone modelled a huge increase in water vapor in the atmosphere combined with exponentially increasing methane while aerosols in the atmosphere are greatly reduced, along with huge reductions in sea ice? Nope, too many variables and too hard to work out the extent of any of the increases or decreases in a model. Does anyone add the nearing solar maximum for the current solar cycle into the models as well… Nope (we don’t want to consider that variable that usually gets lost in the yearly weather noise)..
    So what’s the final result?

    We didn’t see this coming, no-one could have predicted it etc, etc… Sorry, that’s garbage, no-one wanted to predict it as it would be “out there” in predictions and have the consequence of potential loss of tenure, job, funding for whoever does predict it. No-one is going to fund bad news, we want only ‘good’ news about the future and how we have lots of time to fix climate (or anything else) *** (A decade or 2 is considered a long time for a politician giving funding).

    We are in deep, deep, overshoot, there should be no surprises about any sudden massive great changes in a number of different symptoms of this overshoot, climate changes being one of them.

    There is plenty of evidence of ‘change’ not being a slow constant, but rather a series of smaller abrupt changes over a period of time, with gaps between each abrupt change, until a new equilibrium is eventually reached..

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  26. Denninger explains we are so desperate to deny bad news that up is perceived as down.

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=250977

    “No Sir, There Are No Rate Cuts

    The market’s reaction to the Fed Rate decision is utterly insane.

    Obviously the market thinks rate cuts are imminent.  There’s no evidence for this in the Fed Statement or data.

    Specifically, the Fed strengthened its language on the job market in this statement, which would tend to remove said expectation, not add to it.

    The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

    Well, you’re not headed there with allowing the market to keep believing that which you don’t state, but which you also don’t strongly stomp on.  That’s a serious problem for the economy generally because inflation is most-certainly not headed back to 2% when, for example, both car and homeowner’s insurance is rising at about a 20% annualized rate.  May I note that automobile insurance is 2.8% of the basket all on its own so 0.5% inflation is represented by that even if everything else was literally zero!

    Never mind shelter costs are rising at close to triple the 2% target and that is 36% of the basket, so just taking that alone if everything else was zero they’d be at the target — and, obviously, everything else is not zero.

    Further, everyone knows that the CPI is a joke at this point — especially when it comes to mandatory spending on things like shelter, fuel and insurance of all sorts.

    I can’t fathom how this is a bullish statement, particularly given the credit issues at the consumer level and maturing corporate debt that will have to be rolled over the next year or two — and then at an increasing rate in the years beyond.  Most of this was refinanced in the last five to seven years and that was at rates that were much lower than those of today.

    I saw nothing in this statement that implied you should be buying anything — except the short end of the Treasury curve.”

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      1. Damn!! And I doubt its fake. Those poor people. RIP

        I only came across Richard a few days ago, but he seems like the real deal. He was definitely in the heat of the moment (which is usually a big mistake, but he pulled it off beautifully). Very raw, emotional and honest.  

        And now I have a new favorite saying – “History will know no more wicked bitch than (insert your most hated country)”.

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      2. Did the people firing that drone think it was a video game? Did they think they were killing NPC’s (Non playable characters) and not real people? Just WTF!

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  28. I have listened to The Duran pretty much every day since the Ukraine war started. I don’t link to them here too often because they are so frequent and often cover similar ground.

    This one stood out for me. It was the first time they spoke with guest Tarik Cyril Amar and also my first exposure to him. His understanding and ability to clearly articulate the lack of intelligence and sanity of European leaders is superb.

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  29. Add Jordan Peterson to the list of morons denying climate change. A lot of previously smart people are losing their minds.

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    2. This again is a perfect example of how intelligence in pursuit of some other goal is not rational (tribe, status, sex). As the “After Skool” podcast/video above had shown. Peterson has put forward a FIB (fashionably irrational belief) that is tribe takes as a marker of identity, ie that climate change is fake.

      It almost appears as if FIBs are what intelligent/educated minds makeup when they are in denial of reality.?????

      What do you think Rob, et al?

      AJ

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  30. Interesting explanation of how the housing boom transformed China, and how extreme risk and leverage fueled the growth, and how the bubble eventually made property unaffordable and an item purchased for speculation rather than accommodation, until the government deliberately popped the bubble in 2020.

    Then their story goes off the rails for a minute: “The Chinese government elected to inject it’s population with traditional and less effective vaccines than the novel mRNA vaccines used in the west, which meant they had to employ stricter lock down policies for a longer period”.

    Incomes fell and the flow of workers reversed with many returning to their rural homes.

    The biggest real estate developer Evergrande was too big to fail but the Chinese government let it fail anyway. Other real estate companies are now in similar trouble.

    The savings of the middle class was mostly held in real estate and is vaporizing. This is slowing down their economy and creating stress in the social contract.

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  31. After one year of investigations into the Nord Stream pipeline destruction the official conclusion is that the pipeline was sabotaged but they are unable to determine who did it.

    This despite Biden publicly stating he would destroy the pipeline.

    The guest here is Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s representative at the UN. Notice how clearly and intelligently and professionally he speaks in English, his non-native language.

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  32. Go and watch any and every “End of the World ” movie, like Armageddon, Deep Impact, Don’t Look Up, Greenland, The Core, 2012, etc plus a zillion B grade movies..

    In every single one of them, they must keep ‘the end of the world’ a secret for as long as possible, for ‘them’ to maintain a working government while they work on a solution.. Of course it’s Hollywood and they always end up saving the world, except Don’t Look Up, but it’s meant to be a sarcastic comedy, so that’s OK..

    There is no way, that ‘leaders’ including the advice from top military ranks, don’t know clearly about overshoot and where we are headed, so to keep the secret they all talk up renewables and green growth, while handing out oil and gas permits like candy.

    Perhaps the real plan is to blow up most of the population in a nuclear war, while the elite hide in bunkers for 10 years or whatever, then ‘they’ will sort out what’s left afterwards?

    Or more likely they just want to keep everything going as close to ‘normal’ (IE them being in charge), for as long as possible hoping that ‘something’ turns up and it doesn’t all end on their watch. As I mentioned up thread, working with the ‘elites’ a couple of decades ago, I’m fairly sure it’s the latter, no plan (plan is more of the same), hope something turns up, but keep going with the perceived plan of green growth.

    What it really means, is ‘they’ will print more money until we get hyperinflation, no other choice. ‘They’ will keep the green lies going, throwing more and more money at it, including increasingly obvious non-solutions like synthetic fuels from renewables, any type of ‘new’ battery chemistry, fusion, any type of nuclear reactors different from the current obviously non-economic (and net energy user, not producer) fission power plants.*

    How do you, we, me, whoever, keep a large devastating secret? Hide it!! How do you hide something so large? Easy, stop people from looking, keep them so distracted with other things that they never bother looking. Let’s pretend we go to the moon, then keep smart people looking at how fake it all was, let’s destroy some building and kill some people and pretend it’s the fault of those ‘over there’, who are holding our oil, let’s throw huge sums of money and resources at some totally uneconomic oil and discredit all those peak oilers, let’s have a pandemic, kill a few million people with the disease and cure, but keep the inquisitive looking at everything going wrong there…

    What? Still too many people looking at overshoot, energy decline, resource limitations, pollution, species decline and not our preferred problem of climate change (that we have a nice boxed solution for, if we pay enough university professors to write up papers on the answers), so what’s next?

    OK time to start a war, not enough, OK another one, still not enough, OK WW3 or risk it, then we can drag all those people looking at the things we don’t want them looking at into armed service conscription, or just sensor them as enemies of the state, or terrorists. (In other words ‘they’ still have a few tricks up their sleeves).

    The overall plan of distraction seems to be working fairly well and of course every year or 2, a new major distractio… sorry, problem, of some type breaks out. Assuming the next major world event isn’t WW3, then what’s next in the bag of tricks?? EMP from the sun, another pandemic, perhaps an asteroid, that we can garner huge resources to fight, that we have a couple of years to work towards the problem, send Elon into deep space and be successful (of course it will all happen just too far away for normal telescopes here on Earth to detect, but trust how we saved you all, with this huge expense) ((Then begin to leak how it was all fake, but do this slowly to keep the people distracted)..

    Of course it might not be any of that, instead just one big conspiracy to control everything by God and/with the WEF, who have everything under control, remember you’ll be happy by 2030…. Sorry, got to go… “Yes Kate, what was that?”…….. “No Kate I’m busy”…..”OK I know you need the computer”, …. “what’s photoshop”? ……………….. Sorry bye….

    *Despite one of the principal aspects of economics, being how ‘economies of scale’ work, meaning larger is better cheaper to operate etc, we are now led to believe that something different to what we have, as in Small Modular Reactors will be more economic (and of course save the world).

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    1. You make two key points:

      1. Our leaders are overshoot aware but have no plan to address overshoot.
      2. Our leaders do have many plans to distract us from also becoming overshoot aware.

      Neither of those points ring true to me.

      On the first point, the majority of experts with relevant expertise are not overshoot aware. Why would our leaders with less expertise be any different? Think of the POB people you debate, or all the climate scientists who avoid population reduction, or all the environmental organizations pushing to shut down fossil energy companies.

      Observe that Doomberg (who denies peak oil) has 250k followers vs. Nate Hagens (who denies the need for population reduction policies) with 12K followers vs. me (who explains why we deny everything critical) with 300 followers vs. Jack Alpert (who has the only plan that might preserve some of our best accomplishments) with 4 followers.

      There’s an order of magnitude reduction in influence for every step closer you get to overshoot reality. Our leaders have a much bigger following than Doomberg, which means they understand even less.

      On your second point, I see no evidence that covid, Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan, etc. are carefully constructed plans to distract us from overshoot awareness. Instead I see what looks like random emotional irrational outbursts from a social species facing scarcity pressures and threats to it’s power.

      P.S. I would guess the only reason I have 300 instead of 30 followers is that I post quite a bit about the covid crimes. My overshoot posts are far less popular.

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    2. Having worked in government I don’t think people are that smart. I worked in the BC Government for 30 years and in the last 10 years or more jobs have been based on “competencies” or telling s story in the job interview. We had people hired who had very little knowledge in the field they were awarded jobs in. We had a Ministry of Forests manager hired based on her experience managing a muffin shop. Competencies include things like “Developing Others”. On the day I retired I had an exit interview with an assistant deputy minister. My job included among several things, inspecting logging and road maintenence. He asked if I had any feedback on our legislation. I said it is impossible to charge companies for poor road maintenance leading to landslides. His comment was, that’s not our department. Logging roads are a huge source of erosion and sediment entered into fish habitat and have been impacting salmon, trout and steelhead reproduction for years. In general I found the organization to be top heavy with managers and very little field presence.

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      1. I agree with you. I have first hand experience leading a large HR group for a short period during a corporate takeover. Screw “developing others”. Did you get top marks in an advanced calculus course and can you solve a complex puzzle?

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  33. I still have my horse paste. Never needed to use it.

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  34. To the best of my knowledge Nate Hagens has never stated his position on the safety and effectiveness of mRNA transfections.

    Today his podcast discussed how difficult it is to speak truth in today’s culture. Instead of coming clean and stating his position on mRNA he made fun of the issue by beeping out all of his words related to covid.

    Protecting his subscriber base is apparently more important than preventing further unnecessary deaths.

    Hagens has zero integrity on covid.

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    1. Dear Rob,

      I hope you are well.

      I understand your frustration, alas I understand Dr.Hagens as well.
      – He could very well severely undermine his stature and credibility by going deep into this “socially controversial” matter.
      – Not addressing it does also potentially leads to some loss of traction, although more unlikely and smaller in comparison.

      By following the cautionary principle regarding reactionary consequences of the recent global medical intervention system, the message which he is trying to convey regarding overshoot might be utterly devastated and lose ground for not being “neutral” anymore.

      I am not defending this approach.
      Strategically it might be considered highly diplomatic and plausibly effective and even pragmatic.
      – As a publicly defamed person myself, I can attest to the unwanted and unintended consequences alongside the problematics of long standing repercussions of such.

      Could it be said that the educator at hand demonstrates the maximum power principle and loss aversion in terms of spreading the overshoot message, without the unwanted discourse of being labeled a “conspiracy theorist” due to socially unacceptable conditions…?

      Kind and warm regards,

      ABC

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      1. I understand what you are saying. That may explain his actions. Or maybe not. We don’t know what he believes.

        There is enough evidence about mRNA now to consider further transfections to be attempted murder and a violation of the Nuremberg code, and there is therefore no longer any valid excuse for silence.

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        1. Dear Rob,

          thank you for your quick reply.

          Considering the critical points that are presented in the video.
          The personal stance likely ia similar to “ours”, that the actions taken were and still are nothing less than absurd.
          – It would be exhilarating if Dr. Hagens would drop by, as he previously (at least once) has on this site.

          Warm and kind regards,

          ABC

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  39. Watched the whole 3+ hours. Some of it’s good, some of its so so. She repeated a lot of what Chuck Watson has already said in multiple talks with Nate. Her perspective seems tinged with American exceptionalism and demonization of the USSR and by extension Russia. As Andrei Martyanov has stated, the US is now 10 years behind Russia in all manner of weapons and can’t hope to catch up because we’ve sent all our manufacturing overseas and dumbed down our educational system with DEI.

    All of the discussion about aliens by both her and Lex is a waste. I think the evidence is quite clear that we probably are the only advanced civilization in the galaxy.They both appear not to understand how our evolution is contingent on multiple exceedingly rare events that have almost no probability of occurring again in the galaxy. IMHO

    And then they end with pure hopium while I end with the main take away being that we will more than likely not avoid nuclear annihilation.

    AJ

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      1. I doubt that they are aware of oil depletion or collapse of complex technologies/capitalism/civilization. Lex seems aware that civilization is at risk (and everything is lost) if we have nuclear war. Both hold out hopium that we move to Mars/the Stars via Elon’s daydreams (again not aware there is no energy that will get us there).

        AJ

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  41. I find Ukraine updates by Simplicius the Thinker to be the most interesting. Today’s is very good.

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/eventful-24-hours-moscow-terror-attack

    One way or another, things definitely feel like a corner has been turned recently, and the conflict is entering a new more dangerous phase. Recall that the last American military aid disbursement to Ukraine was in October, which is now coming up on almost six months soon. This explains the dire shape Ukraine is in and how desperate the West is becoming to save them. This is why rumors of French troops in the next “two months” abound, because as soon as Rasputitsa wears off in April/May, Russia could begin a powerful campaign of offensives which could totally break the AFU’s back, forcing NATO to strongly consider intervening. There have been reports that Russia is heavily stockpiling missiles for this, as it has launched relatively few large scale attacks, particularly ones utilizing Kalibr missiles, whose stocks should be swelling by now.

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  42. Tim Watkins on wind turbines and idiot leaders.

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/03/24/the-enemy-was-always-within/

    Take, for example, concrete – one of the highest carbon emitting industries in the modern economy.  The foundation of a 5MW wind turbine includes some 900 cubic yards of concrete.  It also includes around 230 tons of that other high-carbon industrial product… steel.  Although given that most of the mass of a wind turbine is steel, that is only a fraction of the total 850 or so tons – making wind turbines, especially the offshore ones, the most steel intensive forms of electricity generation… something which is increasing along with capacity.  As Kris De Decker at Low Tech Magazine explains:

    “The most popular offshore wind turbine nowadays has a capacity of 7 MW, while the largest ones have a capacity of 14 MW… a 14 MW offshore wind turbine would require 1,300 tons of steel per MW or 18,200 tonnes in total.  Such a wind turbine thus consumes 24 times more steel than a coal or gas power plant of the same power capacity.”

    And yet somehow our politicians seem to have completely missed this, just as they remain oblivious to the massive volume of diesel fuel consumed in the transportation of those turbines from China, along with the petrochemicals required for the blades.  How otherwise, did we end up with an industrial policy which is diametrically opposed to our energy policy?

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  43. And now, Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handey:

    “Pornography is what the end of the world looks like” – Robert Jensen
    Yes, this is gonna be about porn (don’t worry, I will not be graphic). Seems out of place for this website, but I believe it ties into MORT.

    Chris Hedges is the only person in my network who regularly talks about the evils of internet porn. I’ve heard Michael Dowd and some others mention it a few times. I’ve watched a couple of documentaries. And I know there are books written on the subject, but it is still a very under-explored topic. 

    This issue recently came up with a few friends of mine over dinner. My stance was that “I hate internet porn because it is so destructive to our social cohesion and personal wholeness. But I am addicted and no matter how many times I try to quit, I always come back to it”. Figured I would not be alone with this viewpoint, but I was. They were all on the side of “there is nothing wrong with it and even younger generations are better off now because they can experiment and find out what they are into”. All I could think was “my god, it should be so obvious that the 24/7 free, easy access is not a good thing. How can you idiots not see this”. But we dropped the subject thankfully before I blew a gasket.

    Growing up in the 80’s, porn for me was watching movies like Porky’s and Revenge of the Nerds on cable. Dirty magazines were a big thing too. My friends and I had a fort in the desert and if someone brought in a playboy or penthouse (stolen from their dad’s stash) then they were the popular kid for that month.

    Video stores eventually started popping up everywhere so now you could rent the movies with nudity. Some of these video stores had an “adults only” room, where the real treasure was waiting for anyone who dared to enter (sometimes not even a room, just a small curtained off section). You had to really work up some nerve to walk in there, select a movie, walk out, go pay at the front and then run to your car and breathe a sigh of relief. Same with buying an adult magazine at a 7-eleven. It took courage. It was enough of a mission to keep you in check. Maybe working up the nerve once or twice a month to get new porn material. And it stayed this way until the early 2000’s.

    Looking back now, it was innocent. But today’s pornography is on a whole nother level. I have not been able let go of that dinner conversation. Its the same feeling I get when I try to talk collapse with them. And that made me realize that our denial of porn is very similar to our overshoot denial. Ask people about their personal porn habits and you will see the highest level of denial possible. I was looking up anti-porn articles, but there are not a lot of good ones. This quote from Gail Dines helps to explain why – “When you fight porn you fight global capitalism. The venture capitalists, the banks, the credit card companies are all in this feeding chain. This is why you never see anti-porn stories”. But I would argue that MORT is the bigger reason why.

    Internet porn has been a part of my life now for twenty years. It has a wetiko type feel about it. The amount of stimuli that we receive nowadays would be like walking into the “adults only” section of the video store and walking out with 100 movies… and then coming back the very next day for a new batch of 100 movies. In other words, totally unrealistic and completely insane. We humans need something to keep us in check or we will overdo it every time. 

    This is an excellent article from Hedges in 2015, breaking down the damage. (warning – very graphic)

    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/pornography-is-what-the-end-of-the-world-looks-like/

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    1. Dear Paqnation,

      I hope you are well.

      Decadence reigns supreme as the march of folly continues.
      “Progress” equals to mental regress in many if not most aspects, nothing short of “wickedness”.

      Kind and warm regards,

      ABC

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      1. Hello ABC, 

        Aint that the truth! And I have never told you this before, but I always enjoy reading your comments (even if I dont understand them all). You have a style that sounds like Yoda from star wars. And I like it.

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        1. Dear Paqnation,

          thank you for your quick reply.

          I am amused and humbled, if not slightly perplexed.

          I suppose, that an approach of a bygone era besieges me, especially when the quill is involved.

          Please, ask for clarification if my musings are unclear.

          I wish to articulate matters precisely and consistently.

          Kind and warm regards,

          ABC

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    2. Hi Chris, I have been reading this blog a lot the past few days, after learning of it from your comments on Dave Pollard’s blog. I wanted to jump in somewhere, but not sure where to start. it seems like a close knit group who have built up a lot of rapport and I am aware of being a new comer to such a space. But anyway this issue is one close to my heart and I wanted to link here to a friend and writer who I think, like Chris Hedges, has written so articulately about this topic. Her substack is called The One Task, and that is to envisage a world without rape. And saying that here, I realise could be seen as naive and against ‘human nature’ but never the less, for women it’s still a worthy cause. In this article she quotes from both Billie Eilish and Russell Brand who talk candidly about their porn addictions. Anyway, I was really pleased to see you raise this issue. THanks, and I hope to chime in, in a few more places too.

      “That is why there is no more powerful way to render a person controllable than to capture their sexuality, with which comes the entirety of their desire, longing, imagination, capacity to love and to give, and in short, their humanity.

      Pornographers do this to young boys. The average age boys first view porn is eleven. Before they are old enough to have grappled with the nature of sex for themselves, pornographers are poised to claim that part of a boy’s life, through clickbait at online game sites and other avenues. The accessibility of porn, and its rewards of dopamine and orgasm then make it addictive, at incalculable cost. In a world where around seventy percent of men report looking at porn at least once a month, and only six percent claim they’ve never looked at it, porn does not only capture the sexuality and humanity of individuals. It captures the trajectory of human advancement.“

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    3. I forgot the actual link!

      https://reneegerlich.substack.com/p/on-porn-desire-and-the-root-of-suffering

      Also wanted to mention that my view here have also been tempered somewhat by reading another source, which is former psychologist Dr Robert Salztman (4T book, some may know?) His old site where he answered lots of questions about many topics for readers, including the vast array of human sexuality, was insightful in the mix. Still my main take away re porn is that it is an inherent part of capitlism and agree that denial works just the same in this area as overshoot. The quote from Gail Dines is spot on. But here is Saltzman’s site too. Most recently Dr Robert is focussing on dagers of AI and human projection onto it.

      https://dr-robert.com/the-ask-dr-robert-archives

      https://substack.com/home/post/p-170831918

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      1. Hi Renae,

        Glad to see you here. I’m impressed that you were brave enough to comment😊. Most newcomers are too intimidated to speak up on this site. And we have many here who just lurk and never comment. And that’s fine too.

        You always have good comments on Dave’s blog so you’ll have no problem fitting in. Yes, this is a close-knit community, but we highly encourage new people to join the party (the only requirements are you have to be overshoot aware and somewhat grasp that the topic of denial is much more important than the rest of the doomasphere gives it credit for… you definitely meet those requirements😊). Pretty much no topic is off limits so feel free to comment about anything.

        I had seen your reply (on Dave’s site) about finding a conversation between Hideaway and Kira (regarding denial) that “set you straight again”. I was laughing at it because I can relate. In fact, I regularly browse the older comments here just to be set straight again.

        And thanks for the kind words. As well as the links. I really enjoyed that excellent essay from Renee Gerlich. Ya, I think internet porn and our animal factory farming torture system are the two topics most protected by denial. Even more so than death & overshoot.

        Cheers,
        Chris

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        1. Thanks Chris for the warm welcome 🙂 I am glad to have a space that does not feel sanitised and any topic is welcome. ALso great that you enjoyed Renee Gerlich’s writing too.

          Yes Dave P has had a strong influence on me along the collapse awareness journey; he introduced me to Sapolsky and was part of the unravelling of my ‘spiritual bent’ I have had my whole life to see that there is nothing behind it. This has not taken anything away, it’s more a relief than anything else, to give up on explanations and searching in that metaphysical realm. I think Dave’s latest one on death and suicide was particulary good.

          I do see that I am a collapse nerd and will fit in well here 😉 Dave’s comments are limited, not like this blog with many hundreds it seems.

          When I read that post from Kira and Hideaway (or it was comments reposted as a stand alone post by Rob) I think I picked up that Hideaway was from Victoria, Australia. he mentioned Melbourne as his closest city. Anyway I have gathered he may be a bit of a mystery man! So I wont pursue that, but just to say that he may know much about the local permaculture movement here, David Holmgren and his latest book Retrosuburbia. In this book, Holmsgreen has a rather rosy picture, a story about ‘Aussie Street’ in the suburbs, and what the Energy Descent Future could look like in this local context.

          Most recently we have moved to the house of my partner’s parents place, who have both died in the past few years, and we are now living here rent and morgage free. My recent venture into overshoot denial, was basically from my excitement from being a homeowner and the sudden urgency to do ALL THE THINGS with regard to retrofitting this place, getting garden going etc etc.

          That’s when I realise that I am prone to unreality, of thinking that I / we have any chance in this regard. However I guess also at this late stage then there is nothing left to loose and I am going to do this anyway, as it’s what I love to do, and have always wanted to have. to get out of lifelong renting (in my mid 50s now) and to have a place of our own.

          However I am solo in this regard, partner does not get overshoot / collapse at all, so I don’t talk with him about any of this much and while he helps me with all the outdoors stuff he sees that as ‘my domain’ and not his. But we are compatible and have a lot of laughs and it works, despite it all.

          So that’s how I see denial creep back in for me, it’s not forgetting the predicament, but it’s operating according to my conditioning to behave in ways that are not logical. And reading Hideaway critique Honest Sourcer, in such detail about 6 continent supply chains and complexcity etc, I saw this and it was like coming back down to earth with a thud. To quote a great Aussie movie (The Castle) tell ‘er she’s dreamin’

          I wanted to comment on the factory farm stuff too, and my recent foray into eating kangaroo, but for another post, don’t want to overload things too much!….

          Thanks again, glad I did have the courage to post.

          Renaee

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          1. Thanks for sharing Renaee. Oh no, not another audience member from down under. LOL. Without a doubt the region of the world that has the most overshoot aware people is AU & NZ. There must be something in the water down there (other than poison and microplastic😊). 

            And thanks for the movie review site. Impressive. I’ll be combing through it for some recommendations. If your reading older comments you’ll quickly notice that I love to use movies and music in my postings. (btw, I’m a big fan of ‘The Castle’)

            Ya, being the solo doomer in a relationship must be tough. Gotta live that double life. The opening lyric to this song perfectly explains what we doomers go through when we’re in the company of normies:

            It’s hard to rely on my good intentions
            When my head’s full of things that I can’t mention

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            1. ha ha – yes another aussie doomer. I dont know re the water, maybe the PFAS in the mix too. Cute clip and quote! The relationship is a jig with many familiar steps we dance re normie/doomer dynamic 😉 It helps for me to know we are both acting out our genes and up-to-date conditioning in all things, and it could not be other than as it is.

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  45. Since our fearless leader is MIA today (hope everything is ok), I’ll try to keep the vibe alive.
    Indi has a good one today titled ‘The Genocide of a Generation’.

    “Entire generations won’t remember the Nazis, but they will remember the ‘Israelis’ the ‘Americans’ and all their colonial vassals quite viscerally. These are the Nazis of our time. These are the Nazis that our children will remember, as a widely understood epithet for pure evil.”

    https://indi.ca/the-genocide-of-a-generation/

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  46. And today from the great and powerful Oz, also known as B:

    “can AI save us then? It depends. I mean, from what, and for how long? If your answer is saving us from an economic, societal and ultimately civilizational decline resulting from a peak and fall in net energy from oil, made all the worse by a wrecked climate and ecosystem, then the answer is a clear no. If the question relates to kicking the can down the road a few more years, then the answer is: definitely yes. (Presuming that AI doesn’t kill us all in the process)”

    https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/meet-the-gator-growing-energy-demand-316de796d191

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    1. I left the following comment:

      I like Art Berman’s take on how an AI with super high energy intelligence will help us: “The AI will tell us to use less oil”.

      I’d add, it will also tell us to get our population down to reduce the coming suffering.

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  47. Confidently stating Ukraine had nothing to do with the terrorist attack in Russia 50 minutes after the shooting ended is similar to confidently stating a new mRNA transfection technology is safe and effective for pregnant women after a few months of testing in non-pregnant people.

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    1. One of the must read books on ecology. I vaguely remember it as poetry masquerading as prose for a world that was no more. Very much like all the poetry of Loren Eiseley of which I have hard cover first editions – elegiac works of an anthropologist/paleontologist for a natural world that is no more.

      AJ

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    3. Hideaway today @ POB with some good insights.

      https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-march-25-2024/#comment-772517

      As solar panels get ‘cheaper’, using thinner glass etc, then of course such incidents are going to become more frequent. Then add the effects of climate change, which makes hail storms more likely and frequency goes up yet again.

      All the projections of the nice green renewable future are based upon narratives of cheaper solar panels, yet somehow expect them to last 25-30 years despite the changing climate of more frequent larger storms. To make solar panels be able to withstand increasing hail size, they should be made with thicker glass covers, not thinner..

      In a world of declining fossil fuel use either because of climate or depletion or a combination of both, we have this myth that we can build a lot more renewables, using ever declining resource grades, yet somehow building more will use less, all while maintaining current lifestyles and spread western lifestyles to the rest of the world.

      It’s all make believe fairytale stuff, which every larger hail storm will prove. Having trackers that add ‘hail protection mode’ to panels, increases capital costs and resource use to build it, plus adds maintenance costs because of moving parts.

      We are building $35/Mwh energy with cheap $2-$5/Mwh energy and embedded energy from the past. Entropy never stops and replacing the $35/Mwh energy in the future wont be built with $2-$5/Mwh energy, it has to be built with $35/Mwh energy, from declining resources, which means the next ’round’ of building energy gathering machines can only be built done at a cost of ten times current cost, or $350/Mwh, all in today’s dollars.

      It doesn’t work, it’s a ponzi scheme and to continue current civilization we need to build $2-$5/Mwh energy from current sources, not $35/Mwh energy. The LCOE bandied about is nonsense, it doesn’t matter what the energy source, if it’s more expensive that what we uses to get ‘here’, then it’s not possible to maintain where we are at.

      We have efficiency gains made over decades that mask the real problem of using up all our cheapest fossil energy sources. We are running into massive debt problems by trying to get the harder to obtain fossil energy sources, because the EROEI is lower than the easy to obtain fossil resources, plus we have used all the easy to obtain material resources as well. Improving efficiency in, say, car engines by 50%, doesn’t stop the resource running out, it just takes twice as long providing Jevon’s paradox doesn’t step in. Efficiency gains do not help one iota in the long run.

      It’s simple, civilization as we know it is not possible in the long run unless energy can be supplied as cheaply as it was to build it in the first place. We only get the complexity of modern civilization because of the massive participation of 1 -2 billion people involved, allowing economies of scale of everything. When we lose the cheap energy, the infrastructure we built (including such things as homes, water supply, sewerage, roads etc) wont be able to rebuilt it with expensive energy, or perhaps just a lot less of it, meaning fewer people involved in modern civilization, but we also lose the complexity with less people involved making individual costs much higher. It becomes a self reinforcing feedback loop of less modernity that spirals down to nothing.

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