By Charles: Doomers’ Visions of the Future

Today’s guest post by Charles is an excellent primer on the diversity of beliefs held by many of the best minds that think about our overshoot predicament. Charles wisely reminds us that no one knows what the future will bring.

Charles recounts his journey of increasing awareness that led to depression and despair, followed by an awakening of acceptance and constructive action, that has provided him with some peace and happiness.

It’s funny how I (we?) construct incorrect mental images of people we meet on the web. I imagined Charles to be an elderly retired reclusive spiritual philosopher, not a middle-aged top-tier software developer with a deep scholarly interest in human overshoot, and an impressive sustainable food growing sideline.

Charles concludes by asking readers to share their own visions of the future. If you have something to say that deserves more than a comment, please contact me about posting a guest essay.

P.S. I believe Charles now holds the doomosphere record for the most links in a single essay.

The idea for this post originates from an exchange with fellow doomer davelysak who states:

I foresee, based on various portents, an extreme human population crash in the relatively (10 – 50 years? Maybe sooner?) near future.

and later adds the precision that

I’ll be surprised if there are more than 2 billion people alive on earth in 20 years.

This made me reflect about my own anticipation for the future, even more crucially, the way I communicate it to others. Or rather as a matter of fact, don’t so much anymore. Like Cassandra, I have come to understand that I find myself psychologically between a rock and a hard place: I foresee a future of extreme hardships which I do not particularly desire. Worst, I have long felt compelled to share my projections, driven by the naive impulse to initiate collective preemptive action. However, torn apart between the pride of intellectual rigor, my ideal not to harm others and increasingly aggressive or irrational reception of the message, I have slowly learned to repress myself, not to voice my concerns and conform to the group. After all, even Cassandra brought ill fate to herself. (It turns out my strategy is no solution, as the rage is turned inside and builds up, but that could be a story for another day.)

Hopefully, our host, Rob provides a safe haven to any doomer who wishes to bravely face the crude, unadulterated nature of our predicament.

As doomers, we share a myth, the myth of collapse. In a nutshell, it unfolds, as I understand it, as follows:

  • The old age of material opulence is about to end, as current trends can not continue for long.
  • A world-scale crisis has been brewing for quite some time; it is about to burst.
  • After it eventually recedes, once balance is somewhat restored, a new normalcy, a new age will be revealed (that part of the myth is optional).

Funnily, if we refer to Kurt Vonnegut’s shapes of stories it falls somewhere between the shapes Old Testament and New Testament.

And many false prophets shall rise

Lurking for a quarter of a century in the doomosphere has taught me visions of the future, even among doomers, may vary tremendously. The stroll through the exhibit of studies can go on for hours, ranging from loss of material affluence (Richard Duncan’s Olduvai theory) to complete life wipe-out (James Hansen’s Venus Syndrome), with population collapse (Club of Rome’s limits to growth) and near term human extinction as middle-grounds (I guess).

The fall is seen as either rapid and brutal as in Hugo Bardi’s Seneca cliff, or manageable as in John Michael Greer’s catabolic collapse. Even our preferences and values differ: some like Jack Alpert’s sustainable modern civilization of 70 million wish to preserve the current living arrangements trading population level, on the contrary, primitivists such as Derrick Jensen do not equate humans with Homo Industrialis and impatiently wait for the machine to (be) stop(ped). There are even some fringe organizations advocating voluntary human extinction and euthanasia, while most would just like to manage degrowth. (To be fair, the church of euthanasia’s ultimate goal is species awareness.)

Model after study after analysis after opinion piece paint different aspects and outcomes of the fall. Some radically scarier than others.

My personal journey through doom

What then do we really expect, fear and hope? At first I had planned to cold-heartedly present the scenarios I found most probable and then invite you to share your own prospects. But, given the heavy emotional load that the subject carries, I somewhat changed my mind: after all we are discussing the possibility of not only material losses but the widespread increase in suffering, deaths, extinction of the living world. At the very least, our cultural identity is at stake. So I’d like to add a personal twist and narrate how my understanding of the future evolved during my personal journey.

I was born in 1978 in the then extremely affluent and sophisticated country of France (WesternCiv). I was inculcated with the idealism of my time and place which originates from the Age of Enlightenment: triumph of reason, humanism, universalism, materialism, progress and atheism. Even though I had a really hard time learning the fundamental necessary last piece allowing anyone to function in an ideal world (hypocrisy), it was indeed the best of all possible worlds.

At 6, I was profoundly marked by Chernobyl. I remember the haunting masks of the liquidators, courageously shoveling the entrails of the angry machine, promised a certain death as a reward for saving our, my lives; and the helicopters hauling sand; and then the oddly reassuring claims from my country statesmen about the spread of the cloud. A first encounter with official doublespeak?

As a city boy living on the 6th floor of a modern building, I grew up a book-worm. Books offered countless windows into exciting realms out of the deprived environment of a sanitized flat. In particular, I vividly remember feeling a strong emotional bond with Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale Five Peas from a Pod. Was it a hint, a reverberation from a destined future of my deep yet unacknowledged nature? More were to follow. At a relatively young age, I watched the extremely violent Japanese TV series Fist of the North Star (right-minded censorship hadn’t caught up yet). A brilliant blend between the universes of Mad Max and Bruce Lee, it depicts a brutal post-apocalyptic world set in barren landscapes and desolated ruins. This time around the call of agonizing farmer Smith to plant rice seeds for tomorrow particularly resonated (captions are read from right to left).

I later read Asimov’s Foundation series and Hermann Hesse’s Siddhartha.

I was faintly aware of the environmental crisis, in particular climate change as a life changing but slow process with only distant impacts. Shortly before the new millennium I stumbled upon information which blew my comfortable world view. It was Colin Campbell explaining depletion and predicting peak oil.

At that point, I was convinced global population would have to come down during my lifetime and challenging times were ahead. I thought it would still be manageable, spanning through the coming century from the current population of 6 billion back to pre-industrial levels between roughly 1 and 2 billion (respective estimates of the population around 1800 and 1930).

I was a rational realist, not buying into modern human exceptionalism which asserts we can achieve higher agriculture yields than our predecessors with fewer resources on an environmentally degraded planet. Even though the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function in a Tragedy of the Commons, I had faith humanity would soon change its ways: it was just a matter of spreading the crucial piece of information about resource depletion widely enough. After all, there were already some men of good will, such as Jason Bradford, taking action. In South Korea, I had just met the love of my life, some years later we married. We were fruitful. Our daughter Rachel, as an homage to Rachel Carson, was born in 2007. Determined to carry my load in curbing population growth, I convinced my wife to stop multiplying at one.

I was to be punched in the face again. It was 2012. A somewhat egocentric professor was sternly announcing near term human extinction (this is most probably the presentation by Guy McPherson I watched at that time). The future was sealed. I was now standing on the edge of a steep final cliff. For me, it was the start of a very dark period. You know that kind of aftertaste which lingers a while after watching a documentary such as the Island of Flowers.

Except everyday, as a background of everything else. I couldn’t help but feel hopeless for my then 5 years old daughter. The key notions were feedback loops (for instance methane according to sad Nathalia Shakhova) and tipping points.

Evidence accumulated from every side. State of the ocean: apocalyptical; ice: disappearing; trees: under assault; soils: eroding. It was suddenly the 6th (or was it already the 7th) mass extinction. I quit flying (for what that is worth, there surely is, unfortunately, a substitution of demand paradox similar to Jevons?).

Having thoroughly assimilated this new data, two years later, I wrote a dense blog entry to get it off my chest. I reviewed my script: I was now expecting 1 billion humans by 2040 and extinction at the end of the century. News still got worse. Moving goalposts, shifting baselines and worse than predicted by the model were the expressions of the days.

Homo Sapiens’ response was to pretend all was safe. The manufacture of consent, merchants of doubts had it easy with a general public all too eager to keep on basking in comforting denial.

Kevin Anderson exposed the half-truths of even a supposedly rigorous official body, the IPCC, about non-existing negative emissions technologies included in their models. The remaining carbon budget was already getting slim and the task to turn this ship around incommensurable.

I took Wing Chun classes (even though I was not sparring with these ladies) and practiced like an addict would inject heroin.

Primitivism (Derrick Jensen, Deep Green Resistance, Daniel Quinn’s Ishmael) convinced me our fate was sealed a long time ago, when we forked into the original sin. Attempts to heal (Carolyn Baker, Joanna Macy, Charles Eisenstein) back into the lost Eden did not cheer me up. Resistance seemed futile (Underminers, Sea Shepherd). Everything was a lie, a fraud, and the living world was collapsing.

I felt increasingly ashamed and guilty for being part of this holocaust of a new kind (let’s not mince words, this is un-Denial after all 😉 ). Only this depressed collapsitarian on his boulder brightened me up, at least for his accent and hat. I considered taking ‘shrooms to communicate with the spirit of the Earth.

Meanwhile, unbeknownst to me, an ordinary miracle was happening on my very own balcony. For no real reason, I had installed a large clay pot and was everyday discarding some food waste. It was fun watching soil building. 7 years later I harvested 3 peaches on a small tree that had grown on its own out of a minimal daily routine. It died the next year, but had shown me a way forward.

I went back to my bookcase to dust off Fukuoka’s One-Straw Revolution. I had read it at 20, but as a conformist computer scientist did not know how to respond to the strong appeal it had on me already at that time. I bought all translated Fukuoka’s books and Larry Korn’s excellent clarifications (for a western mind that is).

Haunted by images from The Burmese Harp, I stopped Wing Chun one year just before covid struck. I lived this surreal period as a blue pill/red pill moment: do we still put our faith into an authoritative centralized science, absolved from any personal implication and effort, or do we fend for ourselves and look for other ways. Although, it was a slow grind, a long arm wrestling, I felt the price of resistance turned out surprisingly not to be very high: give up on restaurants and movies mostly. I have to admit I am proud I was able to withstand (especially for my daughter’s sake) peer pressure and the manipulative wannabee bully Emmanuel Macron we have as president, a corporate valet, if anything.

I enrolled in the local community gardens and bought a small piece of land in the country side to plant a resilient edible forest garden. I started at ground zero: the previous rectilinear poplar plantation was clear cut just before the sale (in modern mindset no profit is too small).

I don’t really worry about the future anymore. After all, if we let her be, life unveils tremendous amounts of strength and resilience. Humanity does not deserve only contempt. I’ve found many people to admire and approaches to follow.

Masanobu Fukuoka’s natural farming:

Ernst Götsch’s syntropic agriculture:

Joseph Lofthouse’s landrace gardening:

I learned acceptance of what I can not control: other people’s behavior, preferences and own internal limitations. I learned the importance of doing small things at my pace, my scale, everyday. I unlearned duality (that’s another story).

Current thoughts about the future

In the span of 25 years, my outlook on the future changed three times. Today, I am not even sure were we really stand. In Vonnegut typology, rather than the classical doomer’s narration, I now find myself in the “Which way is up” shape of story. In this section I will outline my current personal view and preferred outcome.

Although, nothing can completely be excluded, I don’t believe the planet will either go Venus nor abiotic. I do not believe the human species will be extinct by the end of the century. I do not believe we will escape to the stars onboard metallic ships. We may nuke ourselves out of existence, but it is in nobody’s interest. We may experience multiple severe nuclear power plant accidents. But maybe scarcity of nuclear fuel will compel us to progressively shut them down before. In the longer term, the human species could even survive the ongoing extinction event.

As depicted by Joseph Tainter for prior civilizations, ours chose a similar path of increased complexity. Following this strategy, it has cornered itself: in my country almost every service has been converted into an “app” or is in the process of doing so. Thus creating the biggest single point of failure: all this convenience relies on the continued operation of the grid, data centers, the network, chips, long supply chain, rare minerals, etc.

To me, a Seneca cliff scenario is unavoidable and guarantees rapid material loss. We will lose our technological gadgets and crutches. Our machines will stop, thirsty. Pollution will be reduced and assimilated by the organic world. We won’t do much about it other than pretend.

Will there be a population crash or a graceful decline? Will the planet temperature stabilize at a livable level? What will the ultimate stable population be? I don’t know.

Our current ways impact the web of life brutally. I will really be surprised if the planet sustains more than 2 billion people for long. Biomass tonnage of mammals gives an idea of the scales at play:

I expect a crash in the following 2 to 3 decades. Eyeballing the world population age pyramid, if we had to achieve this four-fold reduction tomorrow in a “fair” way, then all males above 30 years of age should go soylent green (females are given 5 more years). For long term survival wouldn’t this be preferable to a slow long agony? This won’t be said out-loud. So I won’t go further on that path.

A call to inaction

Fortunately, there could still be room left to maneuver. Fuel could be rationed for food usages. The population could spread out, reducing the need for transportation and providing labor for agriculture. Degraded land could be regenerated, deserts converted to forests, cereal fields hybridized into agroforestry, or converted to orchards or edible forests as once was the case in Europe.

There are some success stories (propaganda of our times, maybe) all around the world.

China:

Saudi Arabia:

India:

Africa:

New Zealand:

USA:

Agriculture from the green revolution is productive (given external fossil fuels), but soulless, dumb and destructive: the philosophy at work in every step (delineating plots, tilling, applying pesticides and herbicides, irrigating) is that of control, rendering the soil inert, blocking the natural flow of life. The idea, disconnected from reality, is to make agri-culture an industrial process so that outputs can be maximized following a known function of inputs.

Life is not inert, its potential surpasses anything we can fathom. A miracle akin to the one that happened on my balcony could be made possible on the large scale. We don’t (and I believe never will) understand the whole system.

The theory of the biotic pump gives us a glimpse into the full extent of its processes at the planetary level:

I cannot recommend this presentation by Anastassia M. Makarieva enough:

Accompanying slides:

Biotic Pump of Atmospheric MoistureDownload

Large forests work like a planetary air conditioning system: pumping water from the ocean and circulating it across the continent, cooling temperatures, releasing heat above the layer of greenhouse gases directly into space.

Soil could be restored while at the same time cooling the climate.

I accept this may well be sophisticated denial on my side. But why not try?

Conclusion

I agree with Guy McPherson when he states everybody in the industrialized world was born into captivity. But that’s primarily a mental prison we can break out of. So far this culture has lived by the motto divide and conquer, waging war on every side, engrossed in the illusion of control. The fire has grown to the point it has now become a matter of life and death.

Course must be changed. It is not even that hard. All it requires is some generosity: stop the aggression towards the planetary organism which shelters us all, let forests grow absolutely everywhere. Feed ourselves, heal and replenish life at the same time. Tend to be taken care of.

This, to me, is the concrete meaning of love: the cycle of co-dependence illustrated by Yggdrasil, the tree of life surrounded by the eternal snake Ouroboros.

In any case, this is the path I have chosen for myself, regardless of the circumstances, and my proposition for mutually assured survival.

Your turn

Thank you for reading. At least, I hope this post was somewhat entertaining. Please let me know what your own visions, hopes and propositions for the future are. I love to be surprised.

374 thoughts on “By Charles: Doomers’ Visions of the Future”

  1. Regenerative agriculture, agroforestry and food forests sound great for fruits and vegetables but we get only 15-20% of our calories through them. 80% of our calories come from grains and for this only industrial agriculture can provide the calories that 8 billion of us need. (That is the whole reason we went for green revolution). This point is unfortunately omitted in most conversations. i am not advocating for industrial agriculture, I know it is destructive and completely unsustainable without fossil fuels but it is the only way for feeding 8 billion of us.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. The book Alchemy of Air by Thomas Hager provides a very interesting history of fertilizer:

      book review: The Alchemy of Air by Thomas Hager

      We were running out bird guano deposits and faced global starvation when Haber and Bosch figured out how to make ammonia from natural gas. Our population at that time was (I think) less than 2 billion.

      When Nixon opened up trade with China the first thing they ordered were several Haber-Bosch factories.

      I would edit this to say:

      “Despite our accomplishments, all 8 billion of us owe our existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact it rains; and 7 billion of us also owe our existence to Haber-Bosch and non-renewable depleting natural gas, and diesel for mining machines, tractors, combines, trucks, trains, and ships.”

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Hiya Rob,

        Hope you are still reaping the rewards from time you spent earlier this summer forest bathing, any more plans for nature therapy soon?

        Thank you for this reality check reminder of our tenuous food scheme, surely the most exposed Achilles heel of our civilisation. It’s almost comical if it weren’t such a tragedy that a very viable definition of agriculture is the process of expending excess energy to obtain a miserly caloric return in the form of so-called food, most of which is nutritionally depleted. That’s the wisdom of Homo sapiens sapiens for you! Did they add the extra sapiens just to quash any doubt that we are supposed to be so wise?

        It seems an age ago and so many parts per million CO2 has been added since but it has only been one and a half years since I finally got the gumption to start commenting on your site, and that has made all the difference for me just to know somewhere out there was a little safe corner for me to play as well as lean on steady shoulders. Thank you everyone for being here and staying the course, bearing witness to what we have created and having the courage to face the consequences yet to come. Anyway, what I wanted to say was that The Alchemy of Air was one of the first books I read upon your recommendation and it certainly was an eye-opener to propel me on this doomsphere journey. It was there that I learned that 40% or more of the nitrogen in our bodies come from the Haber-Bosch reaction. So when that stops, we’ll all weigh a lot less, I guess!

        Namaste, friends.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Hi Gaia, hope all is well with you.

          I recently had a lovely week at my friend’s cabin on Upper Campbell lake in central Vancouver Island. We rebuilt the deck railing and stairs and did some maintenance on the water supply.

          Here are upstream and downstream views from standing on top of the Strathcona dam on Upper Campbell lake. The dam is at high risk of collapsing and taking out my home town of Campbell River in the next earthquake so they plan to spend billions rebuilding it with a lot of diesel.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Thank you Rob for those photos, it’s lovely to be able to visualise your neck of the woods (literally!) I looked up Campbell River and it’s surely a stunning spot for majestic scenic beauty and seaside living. I am so pleased to know you are content in the place you have chosen to call home.

            I think you would appreciate Tasmania for many of the same qualities that drew you to Vancouver Island. We also have several large dams for our hydroelectric scheme, and the tallest at an astounding 140m high with double curvature wall is near the town of Strathgordon, holding back the Gordon River and the equivalent volume of water greater than Sydney Harbour.

            As an engineer, I know you would appreciate all the calculations that went into its construction (along with 154,000 cubic metres of concrete!)

            Enjoy every day as you desire, all the best to you Rob.

            Liked by 2 people

            Reply

          2. I retired as a Natural Resource Officer out of Port Alberni 2 years ago. Several years back in my job we took a dam safety inspection course. The idea was we could help staff in that section with inspecting small dams usually used for agricultural irrigation. What I found out in the training was we have quite a few dams
            that carry the same risk , some on the Island and also the interior. Government issues permits for everything from the right to pollute, log, mine, drill, etc but has minimal staff to enforce regulations. Fellow staff with the Oil and Has commission told us there was no enforcement of legislation, only letters issued to
            Companies stating they were “out of compliance”.

            Like

            Reply

    2. Thank you for the information. I didn’t know grain was such an important share of calories.
      This seems another data-point consistent with the idea that world population will not exceed 2 billion (15-20% of 8 billion = 1.2-1.6 billion)

      Like

      Reply

      1. My yield of hazel nuts (in kcal per hectare) on a small scale appears to roughly equal the typical UK yield of wheat. You can grow minor shade-loving crops below them, they don’t deplete the soil and they might be a little more nutrient-rich than grains.

        Most farmers now refuse to accept anything other than ‘industrial’ methods, after becoming used to them for 50 years. As Fukuoka found, they won’t easily change their ways, especially not in his native Japan. That country seems very conformist even compared to the UK or USA.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        2. Thank you for the encouraging concrete data. We haven’t explored the full range of possibilities yet.
          And yes there is however lots of inertia. That’s a big factor too.

          Like

          Reply

  2. Hello Charles,
    Thank you for sharing your story; I’m at once moved and stilled in body, mind and spirit by your earnestness and goodwill. Just wanted to say again that I see you and am humbled to follow your example in trying to see everything and let it be as it is, all the while embracing our own power to be and do what we choose in the time given to us and the days remaining to us.
    I am heartened to know that Rachel has you as father, best friend, and fellow traveller on this journey. It is enough and more than enough to know and live with love as this.
    Namaste, friend.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. My name is german derived from coppice, so my ancestors have traded cheap coppice needle for animals as food and for their stalls to clean. in swiss there are some intact chestnut and they try to reactivate them, still a young nut tree takes 20-30 years on these soils to grow. I experiment with nut and fruit trees for over 20 years on a degraded wine yard. We know from paintings, that people also tend to eat a lot of wild. I remember a picture of a huge sturgeon eaten collectively in Graz, now the river is dead. Hard to believe that 2 Billion will survive, this decline will feel like extinction.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Hi there Thomas, hope your autumn harvest will be fruitful and nutful! Your message reminded me of a little story: An elderly king once asked his head gardener to plant a walnut tree in his garden and the gardener said “Sire, with all due respect, you probably won’t live to see it give a crop, it will take at least 50 years to mature. Are you sure you want to waste space in your garden for this tree?” The king wisely replied, “In that case, it’s the most important tree to plant–do it today without any delay!” It made a big impression on me how important it is to plant trees, regardless of whether we see the end fruit, we can hope someone will but only if we plant the tree!
        All the best to you and your family.

        Liked by 3 people

        Reply

        1. The good news is that modern walnuts will bear a crop within the first 1-2 years, and 20-30 kgs per tree in only 5-7 years. Chestnuts I have grown produced a good crop within five years. Even macadamias will produce after 7 years. Potoatoes interplanted between the trees (not walnuts due to the Juglone) along with a few chickens and some sheep grazing or perhaps even a cow, can easily provide enough nutrition for a family on five acres. We do not need grains.

          Liked by 2 people

          Reply

          1. Thank you for sharing. Yes, there are options. And it’s fun to explore them.
            The proof of the pudding is in the eating, isn’t it?
            By the way, do you have advice for any edible crop which could thrive under walnut trees? It is a tree that grows extremely easily in my soil.

            Like

            Reply

            1. Hello Charles, your article was just what I needed having gone through a difficult time with family recently. You have brought me back, so a big thank you for an excellent piece. i will get through all the links!

              Having also gone through all the various stages of despair and anguish you describe over the last two decades, I am so in agreement with you and for the reasons you state also – namely that extinction is not guaranteed yet, and because I have children and grandchildren (4, alas), and also because I find release and enjoyment from it, as Derrick Jenson says, I’m planting 20 acres to chestnut, macadamia, hazelnut, avocado and walnut trees, with the bulk of the trees being walnuts, but am 1) planting them on a traditional wide spacing, and 2) keeping a ‘cropping area’ separate to grow potatoes. I’m hoping that by spacing the walnuts widely enough that, combined with their sparser canopy and strong root system, sheep may be grazed under them in 4-5 years time.

              I’ve not tried, but believe that while vegetables such as tomato, potato, eggplant and pepper are particularly sensitive to juglone, other vegetables such as squash, melons, root crops (carrots, beets, parsnips), lima and snap beans, onions, garlic, leeks, parsnip, carrots, cauliflower, soybeans, parsley, and Jerusalem artichoke will grow fine.

              Of course, potatoes are such an ideal crop in so many ways for doomers (and the Irish lived off them!) that I’m still going to try them under the walnuts, which after all, don’t produce nearly as much juglone as black walnuts. So worth a try.

              Like

              Reply

              1. Hello Diana,

                Your homestead sounds idyllic and a vision of bounty for mind, body, and spirit! Thank you for sharing a picture of what you and your family are creating in your spot of this magnificent home planet. I believe you live in a very versatile climate to be able to grow both walnuts and avocadoes successfully, and in our property in Tasmania, we have that same fortune but with the changes, this is becoming less predictable as we can have very early and late frosts and now this winter has been the warmest in memory. Our main problem with walnuts however is the flying bandit aka the Sulfur-crested cockatoo that sweeps down in gangs and annihilates any hope of harvesting ripe nuts as they decimate the crop well before they are ripe. Weeks before, scouts arrive to test the trees (which are too big to net) and then you know the crop’s days are numbered. They make an infernal racket with their ear-splitting decibel calls and by every indication they are having a blast knowing there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop them. With their curved beaks just perfect as nut-crackers, it is a match made in heaven and we can only marvel at their dexterity and thoroughness in picking through a tree. So, a bit like the story of the Fox and sour grapes, we now think we are growing walnuts not for the nuts themselves but for the privilege of hosting one of nature’s marvellous creatures with whom we share this planet, and it is not a small consolation knowing that we have destroyed life-sustaining habitat for them and now we can give back in a small measure.

                I have been advised that green walnut pickle is a delicacy worth trying to make (more sour grapes?) but there never seems to be enough time for these labour-intensive kitchencrafts at the moment as I know it’s quite a production. Have you tried it?

                We also have a major bird issue with our Stone Pines which we planted 24 years ago and now they tower 15 metres high. They produce cones in abundance with the much desired pine nuts but they are now far out of reach so we have to await their drop–and alas, this time it’s the Black cockatoo that singles out this tasty snack, and they will even tear up immature cones with flair. Our driveway is often littered with the remnants of pulled-apart cones, stripped clean of pine nuts of course! We can only look up and shout “you’re welcome!” and watch out for falling pine cone debris.

                It is indeed a joy and privilege to feed the birds, long may they rule the skies and our trees.

                All the best to you and your family, with wishes for fulfilling harvests to come.

                Like

                Reply

                1. Hello Gaia Gardener

                  Thank you for your lovely reply and my sincere commiserations on your situation with the Sulfur-crested cockatoos. I made a ‘food forest’ of 500 fruit and nut trees in South West Gipplsand, Victoria back in 2006 having become aware of Colin Campbell and the Peak Oil movement. Back then I had two girls in high school. I grew 110 avocados along with 32 other varieties of temperate food trees and shrubs and, finding an organic food coop closeby, was so lucky to make a living from it for ten years. However I sold it in 2017 as it was unsustainable long term – partly because the trees were irrigated hourly on drippers (largely for the avocados) and so most would fall over in a hotter, drier, more windy environment as their roots would be too shallow to survive.

                  I spent the ensuing years until 2021 searching in Tasmania and mainland Australia for land that I could grow food trees on without irrigation and finally settled on this block in Beech Forest Victoria at the top of the Otway Ranges, 550 m above sea level. It is a very beautiful rainforest environment which is a national park except for the peak, which was cleared 180 years ago of the magnificent mountain ash and Beech Myrtle and is now dairy country. As we’re close to the ocean we get few frosts although it’s very cold in winter and frequently very windy, but with a 1.7m rainfall and beautiful soils, I thought I could maybe grow nut trees without irrigation, though I do/will hand water with a water trailer for the first five years until they’re established.

                  I was saddened to read about your experience with the galahs – and yes, have worried about them too. I had no pests in SW Gippsland (because all the forests were cut down long ago and it is dairy country also), but up here we have deer (serious problem that requires every tree, shrub, windbreak and native tree planted to be placed in wire cage 1.5m high – 1,500 of them so far!) also wallaby, rabbits etc.

                  I’m sure the galahs, correllas,black cockatoos etc will arrive, and since reading your post have been wondering if I should only plant half the 200 walnuts I have on order for next winter and substitute an additional 100 hazelnut trees that I can net instead. But I’m worried that hazels have a higher chill factor (800-1200 hrs) than walnuts (Chandler walnut 800 hrs) and so may become unproductive as the planet continues to heat. I’ve only planted seedling avocados so far to see if they’ll grow here – touch and go.

                  As the saying goes, “plant fruit trees for you children, nut trees for your grandchildren” I had decided that in the short term I can use gas guns etc to scare away the Sulfur-crested cockatoos and corellas which will inevitably come, but then it’s over to the grand kids!

                  If collapse doesn’t come before I die – I’m now nearly 72, but fit and healthy and on no meds, so will maybe live another 15-20 years – my kids, like 99% of other humans, being in denial, will probably sell this place, but that will be their decision and there is no point fretting over it. I will have done the best I can and couldn’t sleep without doing something – and love it besides! But I don’t kid myself it is anything other than a very long bow.

                  All the very best to you and yours (I’m also sorry re your pine nuts which I also had in Gippsland, but have planted three Bunya Bunya pines here, which no doubt the cockies will also eventually get as we’ve destroyed their environment).

                  May Gaia be with you and you get to eat at least a few of those wonderful walnuts!

                  PS Where are you in Tassy can I ask?

                  Liked by 1 person

                  Reply

                  1. Hello Diana,

                    What a pleasure to meet kindred spirits here on Rob’s blog and sometimes even find that we are in the same country (although Tasmanians do think of themselves as the real “mainland!”) To me, the camaraderie found here is as sustaining as the wealth of information for these culminating times where it is quite lonely if one has awakened to the reality. Charles has generously shared a vision of our existential state that has revived me greatly and hearing about your endeavours in tree-planting has been fortifying, too. I cannot help but be inspired by your story and feel more than a little comfort knowing that to sow, whether it is an idea or a seed, is the beginning of a possible harvest, but without that start, then surely we cannot hope to reap. You have certainly planted many seeds of abundance for body and spirit upon fertile ground and I can sense the palpable joy you have both given and received in doing so. And will continue to do!

                    I am one lucky bird (or fruit bat!) indeed because I call both Tasmania and Far North QLD home (and home is where one plants their fruit trees!), and it’s no surprise that I’m in the subtropics now awaiting Spring in the south.

                    Our Tasmanian small acreage is in the beautiful Huon Valley, you would most likely know of the area from your research for land on the island. Who knows, we may have been neighbours! The reposeful Sleeping Beauty mountain and the stately Huon river define the wide valleys. Our area once put Tasmania on the map as the Apple Isle, but now there’s as much cherry growing as pome fruits and salmon farming in the channels is a huge enterprise (but I understand that the Salmon capital of the world is Rob’s hometown of Campbell River, BC).

                    I wish you and your family fruitfulness in every season doing and sharing what you love.

                    Namaste.

                    PS I like your idea of mass hazelnuts, the birds don’t seem to worry them much (but rats do!) and they are absolutely delicious roasted as you know. And you could inoculate them for truffles!

                    Like

                    Reply

              2. The pleasure is all mine.
                Congratulation for your work: this sounds marvellous. I find there is great satisfaction in working for something bigger than ourselves and on durations that surpass our own lifetime, even when there are no guarantees. Isn’t our current world the manifestation of past souls? Collectively, we make the world in our image.
                Thank you for the recommendations. I will keep experimenting.

                Like

                Reply

            2. Need to be somewhat careful. High consumption of oxalates causes health issues. Nuts are quite high in oxalates so you wouldn’t want to be eating them in the same quantities you would eat grains. I think the daily recommended max for oxalates is 150 to 200 mg. If you look at nuts it doesn’t take many to exceed the daily allowance:

              Almonds (122mg oxalate per ounce)
              Brazil nuts (137mg oxalate per ounce)
              Cashews (49mg oxalate per ounce)
              Hazelnuts (63mg oxalate per ounce)
              Pine nuts (56mg oxalate per ounce)
              Chia seeds (45mg oxalate per 2 tablespoons)
              Sesame seeds (126mg oxalate per 2 tablespoons)

              Cooked spinach is (755mg per ounce)

              Like

              Reply

              1. Thank you for the info, Monk. Walnuts have slightly lower levels of oxalates at about 30 milligrams per ounce. One ounce of pumpkin and sunflower seeds contain less than 2 milligrams of oxalates. They’re also a good source of vitamin E, magnesium, and protein.

                So maybe we’ll need to grow masses of pumpkins and sunflowers on the cropping area along with the potatoes…….I grew pumpkins under the fruit and nut trees on my last place and they’re easy, plus some varieties last many months unrefrigerated.

                Maybe its a good thing the birds will get most of the nuts 🙂

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

                1. It’s quite hard to find accurate information on oxalate levels. Even some of the health orgs are recommending things for kidney stone patients that may have high oxalates, such as sweet potatoes (or kumara as we call them in NZ).

                  Like

                  Reply

                    1. But surely checking on our comments and replies every day gives you a reason to spring out of bed? And I do seem to recall that you are addicted to coffee which you enjoy implicitly. That’s probably more your reason to get up in the morning, on second thought.

                      Liked by 1 person

                    2. You can still eat them. The body knows how to get rid of oxalates. If you eat them in large quantities you get kidney stones and other health issues like sore joints (if the oxalates accumulate in the joints). People who eat spinach every day, nut flour, and drink almond milk would be over doing it. If you’re just having a handful of nuts you’re within the recommended daily. Nuts also have many health benefits too 🙂
                      Nutrition science is horrible LOL

                      Liked by 1 person

                  1. Yummy indeed, monk! I do like oats muchly, too. Recently I have been a big fan of steel cut oats, what about you? I love their nutty chewiness and found that they are a great addition to soups and stews and my secret ingredient in pasta sauce (a couple tablespoons is enough) to give that extra texture whilst absorbing the flavours.

                    I’ve been meaning to thank you for all your comments and sharing of information on a wide variety of topics. I always learn something from your impressive crystalization of the key points and come away every time uplifted by your kind and generous spirit. Thank you.

                    I still haven’t read Daggerspell by the way but it’s on my bedside table. I’ve been side-tracked by getting into Guy Gavriel Kay’s works as my main go-to escape, interspersed with re-watching David Attenborough docos which I hope will not also serve as historical fiction one day. I always have a box of tissues handy, seeing our planet in such distress but ever so magnificent despite our efforts is an emotional rollercoaster.

                    I wonder if Rob has ever gotten around to watching LOTR?

                    All the best to you, and I have been wanting to ask (but of course you don’t have to reveal) how did you come to choose monk as your call sign? I do know you’re wise!

                    Liked by 1 person

                    Reply

                    1. Excellent ideas on how to use oats. I will try them in soup.

                      Just a reminder that oats are one of the foods that should be purchased organic because of glyphosate being used to desiccate the crop just before it is harvested.

                      Liked by 1 person

                    2. Thank you Gaia for your kind words 🙂
                      Remembering random facts that I find interesting has always come naturally to me. I forget useful things like phone numbers, people’s names, people’s faces, what people told be about their lives. Argh,. My brain decides only random facts shall be recorded!
                      LOTR the best movies ever made haha, I love them!
                      I’ve been wanting to try steel cut oats but I’ve never seen them for sale here in NZ. I purchased a german-made hand mill to use for making flour in the post-electricity future. Not sure if I’ll need it, but something nice to hand down to the next generation. If I grew some grains I could make my own rolled oats using this mill

                      Like

                    3. Monk is just my first and second name combined. My nickname in real life is Mon. I just use a call sign because people in NZ are overly sensitive about anything remotely negative or non-PC, and I sell stuff to people who might be offended LOLz 🙂

                      I had a joke that I’m looking forward to NZ going back to a right-wing government, so we can go back to criticising the government without it being a hate crime.

                      Liked by 1 person

    2. Hello Gaia gardener,
      Thank you for your nice words (as always I could add): they make me smile.
      I have no merit: I now do what I love. It took me time to find what it was, though 🙂
      I guess it’s everyone’s individual journey.
      Best to you too.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  3. Charles is on a hopium track. We humans are great at inventing self-comforting deceptions.
    Why not, amirite?
    The future has been, unfortunately, quite knowable in its basic contours.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. There is I think a different way to view Charles’ story.

      One path after becoming overshoot aware is to become depressed and to disengage from enjoying life and to do nothing to prepare for the coming storms.

      Another path is to accept that things will unfold as they will, and to live a life that, if others copied, might make the future less bad, and to prepare for the coming storms. This path offers a chance of happiness and enjoyment of any good days that remain, and might extend the time that life is pleasant.

      Liked by 3 people

      Reply

      2. I think you and Charles are right to try to suggest paths in handling overshoot/collapse awareness, but we are ultrasocial beings afflicted with massive existential forces that we simply cannot accept.
        No one should counsel depression, or some form of heedless indifference to the fate of humanity in our time. However, anger, incredulity, and constant wariness – what’s wrong with them?
        Smallness of intent, effect, and outlook seem to be “denial” in action – we all have working brains, can apprehend the broad outlines of the bigger picture, and cannot avoid the intellectual pains that accompany our general perceptions. Small is not big, and is not going to much consolation when the bodies start really hitting the floor.
        What value is there in lashing a few deck chairs together when the icebergs are coming in plain view? Maybe that action makes some people “happy,” make them think they are going to lessen the coming impact, but, folks, we are on a massively big superliner, n’est pas?
        Thanks to you and Charles for playing along with what should be genuine repartee between us on the poop deck.Charles asked for some comments, and, unlike many, seemed to enjoy some good ol’ fashioned futilism to counter his link-besotted essay.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Yes, anger, incredulity, and wariness are all justified. These are not easy times.
          In the end times, I might add any stance is as valid as another 🙂

          These days, I like to focus on what’s concrete. The rest is out of my league and not under my responsibility. We will see. Whatever happens is OK, because once it’s here, that’s how it always should have been 🙂

          Good luck.

          Like

          Reply

          1. You are obviously good people, and I hope you’ve enjoyed putting out your views about overcoming the emotions of collapse here.
            The star matter that is my brain just doesn’t want to be agreeable just to be so, though.
            Whatever happens, for example, is not a “should” or an “ought,” but more of simple inevitability, like all matters of natural selection, blind to morality.
            And it stinks already, what with Macron and Musk and US patron saints of the colonial an ever more stupid and belligerent.
            Plus, you got one of the great media figures on the subject, Collapse Chronicles’ Sam Mitchell, to post a comment to you. And they say the internet is dead!

            Like

            Reply

        2. I forgot, I wanted to add that Fukuoka’s book is called the “one”-straw revolution. I believe there is a deep reason for that.

          I totally agree with you on a fundamental point: my answer is not going to be yours. Everybody finds his/her unique way.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Way, way too many time- and fossil fuel- wasting links. Isn’t simplification the way to go, friend?
            Oh. no, I’m going to have to “apologize” for this one, too, correct?
            Here it is, for what it’s worth, to all the solipsists worldwide who believe their self-abnegation gets them an eternal free pass: I am sorry for being born to a species that has found a way to kill off other thinking, suffering animals, its own biological bases for life, its own kind, and, in our lifetimes, itself.
            What would you like to apologize for, and to whom?

            Like

            Reply

      3. A resounding YES! from me; I’ll take what’s behind that door! I think that’s what we’re all trying to do here in our own way and it’s such a breath of fresh air to open this dialogue so we can take heart from others’ choices and outcomes and encourage each other along their paths. I think the way you phrased The Choice is a perfect foil for your ever present MORT or whatever denial syndrome we have on our backs. If we as a species have to shoulder that burden, then this realisation could be the yoke that helps us carry it through. It’s our Pandora’s Box story, denial has created, magnified and unleashed all the ills in our current form of civilisation but we can still retain our choice to pick our path through, if you wish to call this Hope, it will suffice.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

      4. The second option is my choice starting 16yrs ago when I moved onto 20 acres outside Hamilton ON. Studied up on permaculture, market gardening, lifestock raising. It’s been a blast. My thirtyish kids don’t see the point of it, but then they don’t see overshoot/bottleneck either.

        Like

        Reply

    2. Hello notabilia.
      Well that’s a perspective 🙂
      Yes, there are absolutely no guarantees. I will always remember my Wing Chun master telling me one day out of the blue: were you promised anything?

      If you wish to see and say it like that: I know I will be used by life and eventually discarded. These are the rules of the game.
      I have already experienced depression and self-destruction. That’s not what I want today.

      I could list a myriad of reasons to rationalize my current behaviour:
      * my daughter,
      * the sake of the planetary organism,
      * bonding with life,
      * extinction not being guaranteed yet,
      * building some resilience,
      * avoiding toxic food,
      * exploring something else,
      * honouring the part of me which loves hardships,
      * doing my part and letting others do theirs,
      * living right and in coherence with my limited understanding of the world…

      The truth is I love what I am doing. It’s not necessarily easy, but it suits me. That’s who I am. For now (so it’s not even a definite answer)

      I entirely respect you find yourself in another phase. We are all free and at the same time we don’t really decide. I love that we are able to exchange opposite views, probably miles apart. That, to me contains also some meaning, some magic.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  4. I am that weirdo with the funny accent on the boulder, now an Airbnb super host so I can support my shadow as the chronicler of the collapse of everything on my other YouTube channel, Collapse Chronicles. I think I have made my prediction loud and clear for the past 15 years: We are so fucked. We are totally, intractably, irrevocably fucked, and there is not a damn thing anyone is going to do about it. I am a card-carrying, unapologetic member of the voluntary human extinction movement (winner of the Golden Snip Award, i.e., sterilized before having my first kid). I believe this more firmly now than I did when I was sitting on that rock — ALL evidence points toward that obvious conclusion, and not one scintilla of evidence (despite the occasional little warm and fuzzy apocaloptimistic YouTube video) points to the contrary. From this point forward, there is only one course of “action”: get out there and enjoy what is left of this doomed planet while you still can, because this shit show could hit its long-overdue end sooner and worse than previously expected.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    2. Ah ah ah. I am very honoured to meet you.
      I loved your videos: although you are too prolific for me to watch them all. It’s maybe because I am French, but I always found your slightly singing accent poetic.

      Excellent advice. Yes, no metric has improved.
      When I chose to have 1 daughter, I wasn’t aware. And when I found out, was very very very angry against mainly authority and official propaganda for not informing me earlier, but also the whole bunch of “clueless morons”. (even though I myself had been and still is one in some ways 🙂

      Now, it doesn’t matter that much. I mainly do what I love and a bit of what I have to, for my relatives.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  6. Alice Friedemann updates us today on fusion energy progress.

    https://energyskeptic.com/2023/fusion-at-lawrence-livermore-national-laboratory/

    Anyone who thought the recent headlines about a “Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough” were true, might be surprised to know that most media left out one or more of the following important information:

    • That the purpose of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) National Ignition Facility (NIF) is to test nuclear bombs to be sure they’ll explode and make better nuclear weapons in the future
    • There is no goal of generating electricity from fusion, only testing weapons at LLNL
    • That 100 times more energy was used to charge the lasers (300 MJ) than came out
    • The huge size of the facility required — three football fields containing 192 lasers to blast a sphere the size of a peppercorn that needs to be made of diamond and perfectly round and blasted at exactly the same time from all lasers
    • A power plant based on this method would need to make 10 shots per second on one million capsules a day that are made, filled, positioned, blasted, and cleared away (Clery 2022)
    • That attempts usually fail because the peppercorn sphere must be absolutely perfect plus the lasers must all fire together within 25 trillionths of a second
    • That most tests fail because of the perfection required
    • Each capsule costs hundreds of thousands of dollars – but don’t worry, they’ve got your taxpayer money with a budget of $349 million a year (Hunt 2022). So $3.5 billion since they opened in 2010
    • That it takes a day for the lasers to cool down after a single shot, but fusion electricity would require the lasers to fire 10 times a second

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

    1. Clue phone, it’s for you! (does anyone here remember that phrase and accompanying hand gesture from the 80s-90s?) Yes, these were the minor points that were absorbed in the comment in a news piece I alluded to, along the lines of “we’ve worked out the science of fusion, now it’s just an engineering problem to make it viable as an energy source”. The fact it was presented in the news article in complete seriousness was almost as gobsmacking hilarious as the statement itself.

      Humans, don’t you just love how clueless we really are? Sometimes all you can do is try to see the funny side of things.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  7. The government can’t discuss overpopulation or overshoot openly. Two weeks ago, Kamala Harris made a gaffe saying “reduce population” instead of “reduce pollution” and the right wing had a hissy fit.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Most citizens support laws to prevent animal suffering such as fining a farmer for having more livestock than his land can support.

      We can’t even discuss human overshoot, let alone pass laws to reduce its suffering.

      Like

      Reply

  8. https://realgreenadaptation.blog/

    “We are in a spiritual war. I am seeking guidance for the fight ahead. I am waiting on that guidance. If it comes to me, I will report back. My message is not mine it comes from outside me. I must respect this understanding of that which is sacred and await my calling. ”

    Nice statement by “real green”

    Like

    Reply

    1. We can study, seek guidance and get ready with the belief that our chance to respond ably to daunting challenges will come to pass.

      Like

      Reply

  9. One voice from the wilderness is too weak to be listened to. My voice, for example, is not clear enough, strong enough, loud enough or adequately established in the social/mainstream media so as to be heard. How can any person in a position of influence among our most wealthy and powerful leaders possibly be expected to receive a ‘best available science message’ until we and others who are similarly situated outside the corridors of power speak out, as if with one voice, about what could be somehow real, according to the best available science and ‘lights’ we possess?

    Declining fertility rates virtually everywhere on Earth need not blind us to the undeniable, ongoing annual increases of absolute global human population numbers. Human numbers have exploded by more than 5 billion on earth in the past three score and ten years. This population growth ‘trajectory’ is patently unsustainable on a planet with the size, finite resources and frangible ecology of Earth. Consider how the growth of human numbers worldwide is caused by the spectacular production and distribution of food for human consumption. With each passing year more people are being fed and more people are going hungry.

    For years we have been encouraged to ‘think globally’. Let us hope that it is not too late to begin ‘acting globally’. There is no time to waste because unbridled overproduction, over-consumption and overpopulation activities of the human species are on the verge of causing a global ecological wreckage of the planet we inhabit by turning Earth’s land surface into mounds of human detritus and its seas into sewers.

    As things stand, the leading self-righteous elders in the world, on our watch, are in Davos charting a course to the future that will wreak havoc on what is sacred and normalize what is profane, come what may. These self-proclaimed masters of the universe believe that they can maintain some outer space capsule, underground bunker, faraway island or mega-yacht to which an escape from the global ecological wreckage would be possible. Ample evidence of their fertile fantasies and immaculate hubris abounds, I suppose.

    These few with power intend for the status quo to be sustained; whereas, the ‘many, too many’ without power want necessary change and a ‘course correction’ while a window of opportunity remains ajar. Note to all: the window is closing steadily in our time. Inasmuch we can recognize unrestrained production, consumption and propagation activities of the human species are occurring synergistically, expanding rampantly, and effectively overspreading earth, perhaps this moment in space-time is an occasion to do something that is different and somehow right… for a change.

    No one knows what is possible once we begin somehow to do things differently from the ways that we are doing things now on earth. At the moment we know that silence has overcome science; that greed has vanquished fairness and equity; that ignorance and stupidity have almost obliterated common sense and reason; that hubris has virtually annihilated humanness. Like it or not, ready or not, we are presented with enormous challenges.

    Let us hope that our most able responses to the human-induced and -driven existential ecological threats looming ominously before humanity do not come too late to make a difference that makes a difference. There is much to do. Human limits, global planetary limitations and time constraints are the factors to which we are called upon to respond ably with strength, courage, and all deliberate speed.

    If only the world worked the way we want it to! That all-too-human creatures of earth were actually self-proclaimed ‘masters of the universe’ in more ways than name only. By evading extant scientific knowledge about our distinctly human creatureliness and the biophysical limitations of the planet we inhabit; by widely sharing and consensually validating utterly false thinking regarding our seemingly god-like capabilities; by regarding earth as a maternal presence ­– as an eternally expressive teat; by denying that earth is relatively small and finite with a frangible environment, it may be that the human community writ large is not able to evade the consequences of our patently unsustainable behavior. Can we rise above our apparent incapacity to respond ably? Can we do so in a short time-frame so we avoid insurmountable doomsday scenarios?

    Note the exquisite talents demonstrated by the savants among us or the teachers, poets, artists from whom there emanates universally shared, humane values, principles and practices for living or the leaders who have not sold out their souls for the poisonous fruits of power, gluttony, greed, wrath, pride, envy and effortless ease. The global challenges presented to our generation of elders are likely different from the threats to human well-being that had to be confronted by our ancestors. But that does not mean, even for a moment, that their challenges were either more or less difficult from the ones we face.
    If our ancestors had not acknowledged, addressed and overcome the challenges before them, I dare say that we would not be here now. It does not appear that our generation of elders has so much as begun to struggle in a meaningful way with the global challenges before us. We collectively have been either sidestepping or else running away from our responsibilities and duties both to the family of humanity and earth.

    Our children and their children after them will say that we have failed them. Their true statement, perhaps spoken someday soon as a refrain, is not acceptable and cannot become our enduring legacy. We cannot luxuriate in our willful ignorance and self-serving complacency any longer.
    The moment to step up, take hold, and move forward courageously is at hand. The time has come to accept the challenges already dimly visible in the offing.

    Let us speak out as if we are a billion voices because so many of us remaining mute make us complicit in the devastation of earth and life as we know it. Are better, more responsible courses of action available to us? If so, other ways of going forward need to be discovered, discussed and implemented, fast.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Yes, let’s speak clearly.

      For the last year or so when speaking with friends and family about our predicament I have been trying to avoid narrowly focused words like peak oil, mineral depletion, climate change, species extinction, deforestation, soil loss, aquifer depletion, etc., etc..

      Rather I am trying to consistently use the words “human overshoot”.

      The words “human overshoot” are a much clearer and powerful description of our predicament.

      They also lead one to the only useful response: population reduction.

      Let’s get “human overshoot” into everyday conversations.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Dear Rob,

        Acknowledging sadly the ‘state of the world’ in mid-2023 and where it is going. I try hard to find the right words. Perhaps “human overshoot” will have a sufficient ring of truth. I fear it is not enough. Still, I care and remain active. The children deserve our best efforts and nothing less.

        Yours truly,

        Steve

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

    2. Thank you. Very nicely written.
      It reminds me of the symbol of the Tao and William Gibson’s quote The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed

      Like

      Reply

  10. Thanks, Charles. I certainly recognise many elements of your journey. Some comments:

    Yes, quitting flying does have its associated Jevons Paradox. Flying is expensive (usually) so not doing so saves money. There is no point in saving money if you don’t spend it, so you’ll spend it on something else. Whatever that is will increase economic activity and so destroy the biosphere just as quickly. It would be interesting to know what not flying has done to Kevin Anderson’s economic activity.

    You mentioned lots of things you don’t believe in, and they reflect my own non-beliefs. What I do believe is still up in the air. I have a distaste of beliefs so try to avoid specific predictions.

    The Soylent Green method of population control is key and I can understand your wanting to hold back on that conversation. However, as I’ve said before, species population corrections tend to happen naturally through an increase in the death rate, rather than a decrease in the birth rate, which, as you point out, would result in problems with the age distribution. The only group which shouldn’t care about that issue would be the voluntary extinction movement.

    Good point about the success stories. Though they can be inspirational, they have no noticeable effect globally and so may as well amount to propaganda.

    I think I detect a bit of bargaining going on near the end, where you think the changes required would not be that hard. I think they would be hard, given that humans are a species. What the result of any action should be must be a sustainable population level living in a sustainable way. I don’t think it’s possible for that to happen with humans. Maybe the best that could be hoped for would be to get back to a subsistence lifestyle for a few million that may persist for a few hundred centuries. If a relatively stable climate ever returns, then the whole crazy mess starts over again.

    Regarding our civilisation choosing to follow the path of increasing complexity that prior ones did, surely that’s what civilsations do? If they didn’t do that, they wouldn’t be civilisations.

    For years or decades, we’ve heard that “we must act now to avoid …” but we didn’t act so I’m expecting that humans won’t avoid whatever action was meant to avoid. The amazing thing is that some of those voices are still saying there is no time to lose. Well, we are into an unstable climate now so my expectation (not prediction) is that civilisation can only decline from here on in. The path down could follow any of the paths that various writers have warned about or postulated. I have no idea. Humans are resilient, to a degree and will try to kick the can down the road for as long as possible. How long that is is unknowable. If I ever get my forest garden going, it may give me and my family a bit more time but I can’t imagine a disintegrating society will allow that ideal to continue. The best I, personally, can hope for is that I won’t be around to suffer too much. I’m almost 70 now but in reasonably good health and not dependent on medications, so I might have another couple of decades. Does civilisation have another couple of decades?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Hello Mike, thank you very much for your detailed comments. We seem to agree on many things.

      I understand how one can interpret the end section as bargaining. I’d like to state my case a little bit clearer. I still believe the most probable path is going to be an increasingly rapid population decline, with growing death rates. I even think that’s what is best from the global perspective of the planet. And I agree with the fact we follow a species dynamic like any other with no possibility of control over that.

      When I say, change is not that hard, I am really just relating my personal experience of paradigm and behaviour shift. It was painful to be entrenched in the realm of mind only, in fear and negativity, of faith and obedience to the system, running the rat race after the carrot, competing with others. It feels a lot better to be acting and on the path of renewal: experimentation, care for the living, at one’s own pace.
      I don’t worry about the end result anymore. That’s not for me to decide. To me, that also is part of the work of letting go of the illusion control.
      At some level, I don’t think we can separate the individual from the global, the small from the big. It is said the world has a fractal nature, driven by replication. A small seed becomes a huge tree. After all, where lies the boundary between me and everything else, if not only as an idea?

      I do feel the beautiful, continuation of life and inner peace are aligned. That’s a personal account, I don’t know if that’s universal.

      I have come to believe these sentences may all be simultaneously true: death is necessary, there is no death, killing is an act of love, death is the end. They are just different viewpoints, epitomes of various philosophies, ways of framing that which is.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Thanks, Charles. Very much my thinking. Though I might not be worried about the end result, I feel I ought to be, especially as I have two children (very much adults!) and a grandchild (looks like it’ll stick at one). Once the downward spiral really gets underway, our feelings might change!

        Like

        Reply

  11. The downward spiral is already underway:
    The deflationary depression now underway will probably be the last.
    Where should a new upswing come from?
    All this developments are pointing downward (my point of view in Germany):

    Overshoot!

    Dwindling trust in large companies, institutions and politics
    The physical and mental health of the population
    The willingness of people to work hard
    The level of education of the people
    The availability and extraction costs of raw materials
    The availability of energy in general
    The cost of energy production
    The stability of renewable energy (solar and wind)
    The unfavorable EROEI of so called renewable energies
    The export land model
    Scarcity of forests, water, soils and biodiversity
    The lack of basic innovations
    The age structure of the population
    The inverse yield curve
    The over-indebtedness
    Unmanageable complexity and supply chains
    The growing bureaucracy
    The control and paternalism of the population
    The destruction of the middle class
    The unequal distribution of income
    The decay of the infrastructure
    Wars and hostilities
    De-Globalization

    … to be competed

    “The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.”

    Like

    Reply

    3. Add to this increasing fires and floods costing enormous amounts of money to rebuild from. In Canada we have been burning entire towns. I spent 30 years working in Forestry and since 2018 everywhere I look I see dead and dying trees. I live in the West Kootenays near Nelson BC – we call this the Interior Cedar Hemlock zone known for its wetter climate. We are on level 4 out of 5 drought here. Yesterday it was 39 degrees Celsius.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I feel for you and your fellow Canadians, FA. My SIL works for the Australian government Parks and Wildlife, but has been fighting the fires 8 hrs north of Edmonton for five weeks now.

        It will be Australia’s turn this summer or next. After three years of La Nina there is a large build up of understory which a summer or two of El Nino will turn into an inferno. But for now Australians seem to have forgotten the worst fires in living memory from only three years ago, and Canada is a long way away…….

        I imagine this amnesia will repeat in Canada – until the next fire, and then the next….

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  12. Tim Watkins today…

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2023/08/01/it-begins/

    Nobody bothered to check whether this was possible or, whether there was enough energy and enough mineral resources to build the proposed alternative energy system. Indeed, nobody even checked whether it is possible to manufacture, transport, deploy, and maintain wind turbines, solar panels and nuclear power plants using renewable energy alone. And so long as climate change was decades in the future it didn’t really seem to matter.

    Fast forward to today, and it turns out that all of those things that we didn’t bother checking are show-stoppers. Without coal, gas, and oil – all of which are approaching peak production and will be less available in future – it is impossible to build and deploy the proposed alternative energy system. And even if fossil fuel growth could continue, there is not enough left of planet Earth to provide even a fraction of the minerals required… which leaves us with the socio-economic crisis which has just begun.

    With no plan – still less one that the majority of us could buy into – there are three broad alternatives. First, and least likely to work, is to continue with business as usual in the hope that market forces will deliver the technology to save the day. Since no such technology is even “over-the-horizon,” and since, in any case, it would have to be coupled to a new source of cheap and energy-dense energy (so not NRREHTs) the risk is that we are wilfully passing a raft of environmental tipping points of which, climate change is only one.

    The second alternative, often expounded by environmental activists, is some version of de-growth in which we return to a kind of rural idyll – usually one in which all of the benefits of industrialisation are maintained and only the bad elements done away with. But that isn’t how de-industrialisation will play out because, again, there is no plan. In reality, the complexity of the global economy is such that it is like one of those Jenga games where pulling blocks out at random causes the entire structure to collapse… de-growth is more likely to look like Mad Max than a scene from a Turner painting.

    Third, is the alternative we are actually pursuing, in which the uberwealthy use project fear to panic the population into accepting a version of change in which ordinary people are plunged into poverty even as those at the top cling onto their supposed wealth. And the most interesting thing about this version of our proposed future is that it is as impossible as the other two. The reason for this is that, ultimately, wealth is energy. That is, money – which we mere mortals often equate with wealth – is only really a claim on future goods and services which, in turn, depend upon energy at every stage in their production. And here’s the kicker: it is precisely because the neoliberal system pumped so much wealth into the hands of so few people, that as the energy depletes, so, ultimately, must the wealth of the godzillionaires.

    Things will unravel a lot sooner than that, of course.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  13. The following comment is by George Kaplan over at the current Peakoilbarrel Open Non-Petroleum Thread:

    The World Bank GDP figures for 2022 came out recently and mostly show a continuing recovery from the 2020 Covid declines, but not enough to change a general downward growth trajectory that is looking likely to hit zero for most countries within the next decade or so.

    The chart below shows ten year trailing average for GDP per capita growth with some linear curve fits shown. There are no particular reasons to chose a ten year average or to expect the curves to follow a linear characteristic but they illustrate the trends and eliminate noise. Europe seems likely to stop growth fairly soon. Note that a trailing average is a lagging indicator so the actual year that zero is reached will be some time before that pointed to by the extrapolated line – in fact this year or next might well be the actual zero point for many countries. At the rate China is declining it may not be too far behind Europe.

    The indicators for a near term recession are mounting up: yield curves, brown box sales, diesel demand, labour market indicators, transport and shipping industry woes, commercial real estate occupancy, house sales etc. Most articles voicing recession worries are solely about the USA and rarely even consider other economies, or if they do only as they impact the USA, but history does suggest that as goes America so does most of the developed and developing nations.

    The difference this time is likely to be that once in recession it becomes the norm – i.e. most years will show declines with only occasional growth years (the reverse of all years that have been the basis for current economic theory). There is nothing, in particular no new source of cheap energy, that will turn that around. Climate change is starting to have a significant impact on economies and this year’s step change in temperatures will show a marked acceleration – we are getting past the point where a broken window increases GDP, because now we can no longer afford to replace it.

    Social unrest is rising globally and will only increase as food and resource shortages worsen, on top of environmental disasters and deliberate immiseration of the majority by the elites There are several states that have effectively failed, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Eritrea, Somalia, Haiti, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, and several more on the way, Burundi, Ecuador, Mali, Kenya, Niger, Tunisia, Ethiopia, several small island states (combined these comprise almost 10% of nations). These are generally small to medium sized but what if one of the highly populated countries like Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Iran, or Pakistan succumbs to a combination of corrupt and inept elites, environmental pressures (supposed thousand year floods, droughts, heatwaves are now annual occurrences), resource shortages (all those listed are seeing increasing electricity supply blackout periods), demographic issues (not just overpopulation but imbalances between cohorts) and economic decline following decades of mismanagement and can kicking .

    p.s. I highly recommend, especially to readers in the USA, Peter Turchin’s latest book, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Thanks. It feels to me like there is something very strange about the coming “recession”. A lot of intelligent analysts have been predicting a recession for long time, and yet it never seems to come, at least in those countries that can get away with printing money. It’s as if the wizards behind the curtain know that the next downturn will be a long term depression, or worse, as speculated by el mar above. Covid conveniently emerged right about the time the world needed an excuse to print a gazillion dollars to keep the wheels on. Maybe it was just a coincidence.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Could be a coincidence but one wonders what the graph would have looked like without COVID. It looks like 2019 had a big tick up (don’t know why) then a big drop for 2020. It may take a couple more years to see how that has affected the big picture. The China line looks decidedly different but then I don’t really trust figures out of there, though they are finding it hard to mask the decline.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  14. Excellent essay by James @ Megacancer today.

    I have for a long time wished James would recapitulate his RNA theory from start to finish in one essay. Now he’s done it and I much better understand his core idea.

    Whoop Ass

    How much longer will the cancer of dissipative structures prove effective in extracting energy from the disrupted tissues of the ecosystem? Not only are the tissues physically disrupted, they are also poisoned with techno-tumorous metabolic waste. Humans feel rich and advantaged and this is true, just like a cancer before the exponential growth and accumulated waste begins to interfere with the functioning of the larger system of which they are a part. How much longer will the typical family be puttering down the arteries of the malignancy in their car from one small town metastasis to the giant tumors where the metabolic building blocks of their bodies are served to them through car friendly windows in cardboard boxes and paper wrappers? Go ahead, look around and be proud of your accomplishments, the growth has been stupendous. But unfortunately you cannot escape the fact that you are a part of the system that you dismantle and consume on your way to techno-liberation, the make-believe escape from the limitations of the organic world into the seeming immortality of the technological. The technological only seems immortal because relative to organic forms it is somewhat more resilient to decay and digestion by organism. It certainly has the humans fooled into believing it offers immortality. But these glass and steel dissipatives also play by the rules of the universe and they too age, are mortal and will die and decay.

    At the beginning of dissipative development there was likely molecular predation in the early oceans in which one molecule powered its continuance by helping other prey molecules approach equilibrium or a lower energy state. Also known as eating and digesting them. The energy liberated was captured by the predatory molecule to maintain its molecular dissipative structure and its reproduction. This reproducing molecule was likely an RNA. Since an RNA has both enzymatic and information coding properties it was the original predator soon to enclose itself inside of cells which, upon further evolution, will have formed the organisms. New arrangements and organization of cells resulted in the plethora of species, the predatory role having carried through to the new multicellular structures. Molecular RNA still worked feverishly to produce the tools and structural elements needed by the system to subdue and consume large concentrations of nutritious molecules, also known as prey organisms.

    It was a long slog of evolution to produce another RNA at a larger scale that could explore its environment and produce evolving information for making tools at a larger scale. It would not have happened if there were not large energy gradients to fund the project. The newly evolved RNA is the human and its goal is much the same as the original RNA still working within the tiny organic cells, to capture and consume other large deposits of energy rich matter and push them towards equilibrium or a lower energy state while using that energy to build and maintain itself. But the humans, to their advantage and disadvantage, are not limited to organic, carbon chemistry. Their tools come from the full palette of nature’s molecular potential, metals being especially important and somewhat toxic to their own organic bodies. Just like the original RNA, the human RNA enclosed itself in cells, set-up production lines for tool assembly and education of RNA so they would be prepared to use information to make and use tools. The energy gradients were there – the forests, soils, organisms of every kind and fossil fuels. Dissipative structures arose through which the energy from the gradients could flow, including energy to flow through the bodies of the currently eight-billion human RNA on the planet, although some of the humans are less “civilized” than others, making their living outside of cells with only primitive amounts of information and tools.

    So what happens next? Do human technological cells come together to form a structure that eats energy deposits that are even greater in size and richness than the fossil fuel one? Will a global CBDC organism coalesce to take on an even greater gradient? Unfortunately that seems not to be the case as continued organization and size must be preceded by the existence of “prey” to energize it. Where is the prey that will support this new globally emergent organism? In any case its further development, should it find something from which to unlock energy, is toxic to organic, carbon life. Sieving plastic out of the ocean won’t cut it. The poisoning of life is at a more fundamental molecular level as, for example, the pervasive distribution of lead, radioactive waste and forever chemicals that do their damage unseen inside of biological cells. If this was not enough, humans have recently begun vaccinating each other with DNA altering agents. Lord have mercy.

    There are probably arrangements of metabolism and organization that could support humans for many millennia, but these do not maximize opioid production in the human brain. The most likely outcome for a less than conscious structure going wherever opioids lead it is to have nature open a bottle of really hot climate Whoop Ass to separate the ghost from its corporeal representative. Problem solved. Perhaps everyone should become a Ghost Prepper because that’s the direction in which we’re headed.

    Like

    Reply

    1. I remember the days when Nate Hagens thought climate change was not a big problem. It’s nice to see that he now acknowledges it is a very big issue.

      I wonder if some day he will publicly acknowledge the reality of the covid crimes? Or the importance of Varki’s MORT?

      Like

      Reply

    2. Kevin Anderson is great and sounds pretty close to accepting that climate change cannot be kept below 2c let alone 1.5c but in this interview I did not get the impression he understands overshoot. This is one of the only interviews I’ve listened to where Nate has politely pushed back on / challenged his guests answers and hopium which didn’t seem to reflect an understanding of Nates Superorganism and complexity predicaments.

      I much prefer Patrick Ophuls advice to young people – learn a marshall art, practical skills and mindfulness (acceptance and peace with the world).

      Like

      Reply

      1. Fully agree. Anderson revealed in this interview that he is energy blind. He’s a super smart PhD with considerable hands on engineering experience. How is it possible that he is energy blind unless Varki’s MORT is true?

        Normally I’d add him to my list of polymaths in denial but I think I’ll cut him some slack because of his other considerable virtues.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

    3. I always like to listen to Kevin’s thoughts and his description of his Ireland journey is terrifying. However, I still get the feeling that he thinks there is some way out (he even used the meaningless phrase “more sustainable”), and I hope he’s right, maybe humans can be the first species to voluntarily change its behaviour but, at this stage, there’s a lot of pain in our future, regardless of what we do.

      Like

      Reply

      1. This exchange highlights why, assuming you want to do something useful, population reduction needs to be the focus:

        Hagens said we’d have 50% less oil by 2050 by which he meant we are screwed.
        Anderson replied we need to be using zero oil before 2050 or we are screwed.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

    4. Maybe it’s just me, but I find with every year that the crisis worsens, our academics get more useless. Kevin seems to be aware of this. But he makes the typical mistake of blaming “capitalism” rather than fossil fuels. I don’t think there is any political arrangement that would have prevented humans using fossil fuels at exponentially increasing rates

      Interesting that he kept referring to Sweden as some sort of contrast to the USA or UK.
      According to the internet:
      USA – top 10% have 68% of the wealth
      UK – top 10% have 43% of the wealth
      Sweden – top 10% have 60-70% of the wealth
      New Zealand – top 10% have 25% of the wealth

      Countries like Sweden tax their middle class to oblivion to provide social healthcare. It doesn’t mean they are more responsible with their energy. Sweden is number 28 in energy use per capita. It takes a lot of energy to have light and warmth in that environment.

      If we look at the top 20 ‘energy use per capita’ countries we see a range of social-political-economic structures. There doesn’t seem to be much of a pattern.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  16. 1 in 35 is not a mistake, or shifting baselines, or denial.

    It is a crime punishable by life in prison.

    In this episode we discuss new research that finds that 1 in 35 people getting a Moderna booster suffered heart damage, and ask whether it is only the spike protein, or also the mRNA platform more generally, that is at fault. We discuss the eradication of selective pressure in mRNA “vaccines” that do not include the actual pathogen. We discuss the effects of vaccine mandates on the U.S. military, both in terms of morale, and readiness, and return to an earlier discussion of the cheap trick used in research to reveal vaccine efficacy where there is none. And Bret ends on a parable. Buckle up.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  17. The main problem with this analysis is that it completely discludes the 80%+ of the population of the world who have not had the luxury of being apart of all of the SHIT that has brought us to this point of total clusterfuck. They have been actively, aggressively, VIOLENTLY, kept from being a part of the global economy, the global discussion, and now they are being empowered to say FUCK OFF western civilization!

    They are actively moving beyond anything any of you are talking about. They are building out an entire world of interconnections, cooperation, mutual aid and trade, and since they have nearly 75% of all of the worlds finite natural resources, THEY are the future.

    Has anyone here asked they what the future holds?, how the future looks to them? The arrogance and hubris of this post is almost too much to take. I am not saying that all of this is positive, in fact it is imo the ultimate bloody nightmare but can we please at least try and be relevant as to what is actually happening in the world?

    Like

    Reply

    1. Hi Eeyores Enigma,

      I am not sure I understand your point. Climate change is a worldwide phenomenon, isn’t it? Resources are globalized. It seems to me collapse concerns everybody relying a bit on industrial civilization (and even those who are not, which is in a way the most unfortunate part, and I am not particularly talking about humans here).
      I don’t see the world balance shifting as a bad thing, power gets distributed. This is part of the ongoing re-localization process.

      As for arrogance and hubris, I am not sure how it is deserved: for me to understand and discussion to go forward, it would be nice if you could be more specific.
      Tell me what is not relevant: the general theoretical part about the many ways this may unfold at the macro level, or the part where I share my personal journey, fears, hopes and actions at the micro-level. How relevant would that be if I were to talk about what I don’t know?

      It would be nice if you were to write a, maybe more relevant, or maybe just different, post about your own view of the world, personal experience, and how this all unravelled for you at the emotional level. That would be of interest to me.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Charles – Thank you for replying. I am primarily referring to the fact that the west has aggressively and violently suppressed consumption for over 80% of the worlds population. They have also “offshored” the wests pollution to those “under polluted” countries. The west, aka “the golden billion” is responsible for the vast majority of consumption and pollution and they are the ones who should shoulder the burden of cutting consumption and paying for making sure the RoW has at least what they need.

        If we were to reduce consumption in the west a bit the global south et al is on the path to increase consumption exponentially more than making up for any reduction in the west, 10X more.

        My point is that you all analyse the predicament the planet is in from the very narrow, naive perspective of the wealthy west. It is so far off from reality that it becomes irrelevant.

        I have done a sky high over view of part of what I mean here;

        The Why and The What For

        Like

        Reply

        1. Hi Jef,

          Thank you for sharing your essay, which I just finished reading.
          Yes, you are right. I thought a bit about it and chose not to address the violence of war, oppression nor the 1984ish nature of the empire of lies we live in (although it is present in a sibyllin way in the conclusion: So far this culture has lived by the motto divide and conquer, waging war on every side, engrossed in the illusion of control.). I didn’t talk about the shift in power play, now going on at an increasingly fast pace, either.
          I am not knowledgeable enough in these topics.
          Yes, I agree with you, continuing on the path of modern over-consumption, albeit in other regions of the world, is no less a recipe for disaster.

          My hope is that players are still somewhat rational. And that physical limits put constraints on the intensity of violence. After all, it does not make sense to squander resources in operations which do not bring some benefits in return. War too, will be subject to degrowth. But currently we are, as Putin put it, in the most dangerous decade since ww2.

          I just hope we don’t go nuke. It is unfortunately a possibility which can’t be completely ruled out. That is truly out of my control. Maybe, others, with more adequate position in society take up that work towards de-escalation. To try and walk away the highly contagious culture of violence at my own level of interaction with others is still in my reach. That also is not so easy. I have been taught bad habits: mistrust as a default, eye for a tooth, badmouthing, belief in the inherent negativity of a “human nature” (if such thing really exists)…

          I guess I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb 🙂

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

          1. Sorry … late to the thread but this time of year is balls to the wall for farming.

            “I guess I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb”

            I fucking hate this statement. I know it is currently considered witty but to me it says “I guess I have learned to not have to do anything and accept that a tiny group of people continuously MURDER in cold blood millions of people but …oh well” Fuck that!

            Like

            Reply

            1. I am answering late because, I was away.
              Yes, indeed sorry about using this sentence. You are right. It sounds very cynical. I meant it in the way that it is just one more of many things I just feel powerless about and not able to engage with.
              I understand very well what you mean: I too hate it when people embrace horrors because it has been made “cool” by our culture. It has become more glamorous to sound cynical and side with the strong rather than display powerlessness or empathy for the weak.

              Like

              Reply

  18. I’m releasing a song on Spotify on 25th August called Doomsday Prepper it’s funny but I still get you big time. I’m off-grid permaculture dude but as a student of A Course in Miracles I’ve learned to try to stop changing the world but try to change my MIND about the world.

    Like

    Reply

    2. Thanks. It is a pleasure to see that the aspect dearest to me got through 🙂
      I am a big fan and listener of Paul Hedderman.
      https://www.youtube.com/@zenbitchslap373

      I like his way of framing things. The Course in Miracles is one of his references.
      Good luck for the release and in the process of converging to the point of minimal friction with the world.

      Like

      Reply

  19. A criticism of Industrial Meat Production.

    Veganism will not solve overshoot but reducing meat consumption can at least help mitigate overshoot as part of a strategy for a softer landing.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Yes. There is no silver bullet. But, several strategies.
      There must also be economic tipping points where what makes sense from the system as a whole becomes more profitable than what doesn’t. I mean, it is very lucrative to cut down a forest, sell the wood and then cultivate corn the industrial way for a few years. But once it is turned into a desert (or oil is too expensive, or water is not available anymore, …), the revenue falls to zero. At this point anything green becomes more profitable.
      How far in the future are these economic shifts?
      Are there news of industrial agriculture going into bankruptcy yet?

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  21. Gail Tverberg today…

    My summary: Diesel & food.

    Our Oil Predicament Explained: Heavy Oil and the Diesel Fuel it Provides Are Key

    It has recently become clear to me that heavy oil, which is needed to produce diesel and jet fuel, plays a far more significant role in the world economy than most people understand. We need heavy oil that can be extracted, processed, and transported inexpensively to be able to provide the category of fuels sometimes referred to as Middle Distillates if our modern economy is to continue. A transition to electricity doesn’t work for most heavy equipment that is powered by diesel or jet fuel.

    A major concern is that the physics of our self-organizing economy plays an important role in determining what actually happens. Leaders may think that they are in charge, but their power to change the way the overall system works, in the chosen direction, is quite limited. The physics of the system tends to keep oil prices lower than heavy oil producers would prefer. It tends to cause debt bubbles to collapse. It tends to squeeze out “inefficient” uses of oil from the system in ways we wouldn’t expect. In the future, the physics of the system may keep parts of the world economy operating while other inefficient pieces get squeezed out.

    In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues with oil limits as they seem to be playing out, particularly as they apply to diesel and jet fuel, the major components of Middle Distillates.

    [1] The most serious issue with oil supply is that there seems to be plenty of oil in the ground, but the world economy cannot hold prices up sufficiently high, for long enough, to get this oil out.

    [2] While oil producers can crack heavy oil to make shorter hydrocarbons in a way that is not terribly expensive, trying to make near-gasses and light oils into diesel becomes impossibly expensive.

    [3] If there is inadequate oil supply, the impacts on the economy are likely to include broken supply lines, empty shelves, and inflation in the price of goods that are available.

    [4] The fact that the quantity of oil that could be affordably extracted was likely to fall short about now has been known for a very long time, but this fact has been hidden from the public.

    [5] The world’s number one problem today seems to be an inadequate supply of Middle Distillates. These provide diesel and jet fuel.

    [6] Countries around the world are now competing for Middle Distillates to maintain the food production, road building, commercial transportation, and construction portions of their economies.

    [7] Under the Maximum Power Principle, the physics of the economy pushes the economy toward optimal low-cost solutions, especially as the quantity of Middle Distillates approaches limits.

    [8] The Maximum Power Principle seems to be pushing the EU away from diesel.

    [9] The substitution of electricity for oil so far has been mostly in the direction of replacing gasoline usage for private passenger automobiles. Substitution of electricity for Middle Distillates would be virtually impossible.

    [10] There are many related topics that could be addressed, but they will need to wait until later posts.

    A few of samples of other issues:

    [a] The world economy is tightly networked together. Inadequate oil supplies per capita tend to push the economy toward forced reduced activity, as was the case in 2020. Oil prices likely won’t rise a whole lot higher, for very long, if the economy is forced to shrink.

    [b] Inadequate oil supplies per capita also tend to cause fighting among countries. OECD countries seem to over consume, relative to the benefits they provide to the rest of the world. Perhaps some grouping of non-OECD countries (or parts of countries) will take over in leadership roles.

    [c] The self-organizing economy has different priorities than human leaders. All ecosystems in a finite world go through cycles. As conditions change, different species are favored, and new species emerge. Humans have a strong preference for recent conditions that helped humans thrive. Humans need a religion to follow, so leaders have created environmental sin to replace original sin. The catch is that ecosystems are built for change. Pollution can be viewed as a type of fertilizer for different types of species or recent mutations to thrive. Higher temperatures will have a net favorable effect for some organisms.

    [d] If a local economy chooses to increase energy costs by taking steps to reduce its carbon footprint, the main impact may be to disadvantage the local economy relative to the world economy. If total energy costs are higher, the cost of finished goods and services is likely to be higher, making the economy less competitive.

    [e] I expect that the members of the EU and other rich nations will be the primary countries pursuing carbon reduction technologies. Poorer economies may pay lip service to carbon reduction, but they will tend to focus primarily on increasing the welfare of their own people, whether or not this requires more carbon.

    For example, in 2022, China accounted for 66% of global EV sales (5.0 million out of 7.7 million), thanks to subsidies that China made available. China no doubt had many motives, but one of them would seem to be to stimulate the economy. Another motive would be to increase the total number of vehicles in operation. The majority (61%) of electricity generation in China in 2022 was provided by electricity coming from coal-fired power plants, based on information from the Energy Institute. I would expect that more Chinese vehicles manufactured and placed into operation plus more use of electricity from coal would lead to a greater quantity of carbon emissions, rather than a smaller quantity.

    Like

    Reply

    2. It’s a good analysis and, perhaps a bit different from her recent posts. However, I wish she’d resist the temptation to bring religion and our environmental crises being a scam into her posts. In section [10}, she writes: “Humans need a religion to follow, so leaders have created environmental sin to replace original sin.”

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Totally agree Mike. I have tried for years to get Gail to just admit that she doesn’t understand Global Warming and just leave it out of her commentary but she can’t do it.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  23. I think Nate has finally seriously broached the subject of population control in his latest Frankly in which he explores possible pathways to a post-growth future. But it was in a bit of a strange, roundabout fashion. I had to rewind and listen again to make sure I actually heard what he said because it came out of the blue as he described the scenario of a significant portion of the world population deliberately choosing to stop consuming and to extrapolate that idea, of those ways would be to “we could stop having babies” which really perked up my ears! But instead of furthering the idea of voluntary population reduction, he went on to say “after 5-7 years of no more babies, no more diapers, toys, schoolteachers (?)” could trigger the necessary collapse. I don’t think that demand destruction of the immediate consumption related to bringing up young is the point, we just need to get our numbers down and do it yesterday! And at the end he said that he didn’t advocate for any one of these 10 pathways, just putting it out there as possibilities. We need to be made of sterner stuff and actually spell it out loud and clear, but I myself have never been able to press forward this topic in my social circle so I am in need of such courage.

    On another note, today I learned that air conditioners generate between 4-5% of the yearly CO2 emissions which was a bit gobsmacking; I did not know it was that much of a single contributor. The leakage of CFC refrigerants from the units is another source of our global warming woes. As the mercury continues to rise, both western and developing countries will be adding to that percentage. The production and usage of air con in China, India, and Indonesia will increase in the short term and with it coal plants and more emissions. If only we could generate power from vicious cycles! but alas, this is a slippery slope on which we have no footing.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. I also caught that comment by Nate. I think his point was that ending population growth will crash the economy.

      There’s a common theme I notice with Nate. He prefers to analyze and explain our predicament, and always puts off discussing what he thinks should be done to the end, and then rushes it because he’s out of time. See for example his mega-series with Daniel Schmachtenberger, and all of his annual earth day talks.

      We’re out of time. Much better to start with Part 4 that says we need to get our population down and them spend Parts 1 to 3 explaining why. By the way, I’ve said this to Nate directly so I’m not talking behind his back.

      My air conditioner is a 20 watt fan that I bought for $30. I position it on the floor next to my open sliding door and point it at my computer chair. Works plenty good enough. I have a spare fan in storage.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I can always count on you finding a simple and practical solution at the lowest energy point, thank you Rob for reminding us that most of the time, a fan pointed in the right direction, is all that is necessary!

        Drinking enough water on hot days cannot be over emphasised, and that is why I’m saying it here! The key is to be topped up before you need it, on hot days make sure you get in at least 1 liter of water early in the morning and more like 2 if you are planning physical work. And then keep it up as needed of course. I know there are some people who are not natural water drinkers, it’s amazing how a spritz of lemon or even better, lime, can encourage guzzling. I especially like a splash of mandarin juice in water.

        Soon it will be our turn here in the Southern Hemisphere for record breaking heat (which has already happened in South America this winter, most worrisome). Midnight Oil’s 1987 song Beds are Burning lyrics have really come home to roost now. “How can we sleep when our beds are burning? The time has come to say fair’s fair. To pay the rent now, to pay our share.” The worst is it’s all our share and it’s certainly not fair for all others and the planet.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

      2. I’ve never really tried it but I once heard an “expert” say that fans are usually pointed in the wrong direction and that they should point to expel air through an open window or door. This drags in air from the outside. I guess it would cool a house assuming the house is warmer than the outside. The normal way people use a fan just circulates the same air. That normal method does have an impact, I suppose, as it means you can evaporate your sweat more readily but it would be interesting to try the expert method. We’re in winter now, so it would be rather pointless for me, at the moment.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

    1. The callous indifference to causing death and suffering from both a disease that could have been effectively treated with inexpensive drugs, and an economy that did not need to be shut down, in order to maximize corporate profits is BREATHTAKING.

      This discussion focusses on cortical steroids, not Ivermectin and other effective drugs that were blocked.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  25. Hello everyone, hope you are all hanging in there at the precipice of everything.

    I feel like a ignoramus and even more confirmed in our precarious state today because I just learned about a situation called global dimming which pretty much spells disaster whether or not we collapse the economy and stop burning fossil fuels now to save ourselves from ever more CO2 suffocation. In fact, our planetary heating could be even worse if the coal-fired plants shut down because if anything they are adding aerosols to the atmosphere which are actually responsible for preventing solar energy penetration which is actually helping with keeping temperatures down. The focus has totally been on reducing carbon emissions and the only way we know how to do that is to slam on the economic breaks with demand destruction, but if we are already hopelessly trapped in this global dimming scenario, then the aftereffects of the factories and coal going off line will be even more rapid warming. Am I getting this right?

    So it’s really between a rock and a hard place and we’re at the edge of that cliff face so the only way is down. This year has shown us unequivocally that the earth is undergoing a climate free for all and all bets are off on how this will unfold other than the generalised doom of feedback loops already triggered. Every day you read in MSN about scientists all around the world just completely baffled, describing the numbers on land and sea with superlatives and generally jumping out of their skins with concern. Some are honest enough to say the survival of human species is under threat, and as extinction is already happening to 200 species a day (this is so mind-numbing that I almost beg for denial), how can ours not be far down the list? But even if we humans all suddenly disappear off the planet, there is no stopping the runaway conflagration for the planet and the rest of life still on it. Prior to today I thought that there was still a chance that life would find a way after our demise but now I am reeling with the possibility that we’re too late. And with all our 400 plus nuclear power plants which will be left behind unmanned like a final poisoned offering, oh humans, what hell have we wrought? So maybe the only thing we really need to do now with the energy and social order we have left is to immediately decommission those (but is there any guarantee?) and let the rest of the biosphere remaining just having to deal with a boiling blue-green sphere, but not also a radioactive one.

    Now some policies are starting make real sense. We have to sell the new green revolution because we need to keep making stuff to keep spewing particulates which are the sun umbrella over our heads. Besides, this is what the populace wants to hear that we’re doing something about the climate problem. We are trying to balance this with other forms of demand destruction and a controlled economic slow down. But it is now clear that there is no great intention to stop CO2 emissions in the short term because the effect of that may be only worsening and unmanageable climate catastrophe. No wonder China is churning out more coal plants, and there is no sign of stopping, maybe that is actually our main strategy now for slowing down the runaway temperature rise–CO2 ppm be damned, just cover our planet with particulates while we still get as much stuff as possible and the getting is still possible. Besides, if we shut down the economic machine too fast and too much, social order will disintegrate and there is no getting it back. Above all at this time, social order must be maintained, even if we resort to whatever bread and circus techniques that will keep people waking up everyday and doing their jobs (and economic stress is a good motivator). Governments will continue to print money just to keep up the farce as long as they can. I am sore afraid that there are some who think that a nuclear weapon would also add needed particulates to the atmosphere whilst thinning the herd at the same time. I am just thinking out loud here but the most compassionate thing to do now is to somehow thin the herd so there is less suffering. Once again, I cannot help but think that the Covid chronicles are a foray into this agenda, and that for me explains what cannot otherwise be understood.

    Okay, I am going to take a deep breath and try to channel Charles’ calm equanimity. It is what it is and we still have our choice in what we can do for this day. However, every evening I am finding it harder to fall into a numbing sleep and every morning my first thought is I know without any doubt is one closer to my last, and how quickly that is unwinding.

    Forgive me for unloading this, I do not have anyone else to turn to and I know you are all brave and earnest and I crave your understanding and compassion.

    Namaste, all fellow travellers. We are closer kin than we know.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. It is all very upsetting Gaia.

      I remember learning about global dimming when I read James Hansen’s book 10 years ago. I wrote about it here:

      book review: Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen

      I was so upset I wrote to Hansen asking if reduced emissions would outweigh reduced dimming. I don’t remember his answer which probably means he said he didn’t know.

      Perhaps someone else has more up to date data but the way I think of our climate forcing status is:
      – we’ve already raised the temperature by 1 degree
      – we’ve already emitted enough CO2 to raise it another 1 degree
      – soot from industrial processes is masking another 0.5 degree rise

      Which means the best case for our grandchildren is very bad.

      We recently reduced the allowed Sulphur in fuel used by large ships which reduced particulate emissions. I saw some speculation that this may explain why extreme weather seems to have shifted a gear recently, but I have not seen confirmation of this and do not know if it is true.

      James Hansen is a great man, but his denial, in part, got me thinking about the significance of Varki’s MORT.

      James Hansen On and In Denial

      By James Hansen: I Don’t Think I’m an Alarmist

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    2. What if we dropped a nuke in a volcano?!

      In all seriousness, it’s very scary. Especially when we understand how easily and quickly society could collapse from a range of causes. Then climate change comes in to finish us off 😦

      Like

      Reply

    3. Dear Gaïa garderner,

      Thank you for sharing your emotions. I think I can say I know what you mean, having spent quite some time in despair land.
      If my personal experience is of any general value, this too will come to pass. But not necessarily on “your” terms.

      I personally believe life is a tough one, almost as tough as the sun. But truly, who am I to know?

      We don’t know, we can’t understand, we navigate a sea of unknowns, clinging to ideas as a way to feel reassured. But reassured of what? The story of the woman who was looking for her necklace every where around her, and could never find it because she was simply wearing it. What a relief!
      What if extinction is the current necessary step for life to go into another phase, like happened before? (I love Tim Lenton’s narration: here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_Rao6GR4Z4&t=217s and there https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_Rao6GR4Z4&t=480s) Where is up, where is down?
      I wish you all the best in continuing to experience the dream like nature of reality.

      PS: if “the powers that be” were rationally managing the species behaviour, maybe to maximize their own survival, old-growth forest would not be under-siege (given their importance in regulating the water cycle). So, I don’t believe China is building coal fired plants in order to maintain aerosol and keep the planet cool. We are simply all trapped in a self-reinforcing loop, which will only stop when all breaks down. At least, that’s what it seems to me…

      Like

      Reply

  26. Rob,
    I too read Hanson’s book 10 years ago. I thought it was a clear and sober warning about where we were headed. If we didn’t address climate change. That he seems to deny that the real problem is overshoot does not surprise me. He has hopes for his grandchildren.
    After reading Hansen I moved on to McPherson – true doomer porn. It seems like every few months McPherson says we only have 6 months left till extinction. He bases that on societal collapse and the greater solar heating from the lack of any global dimming. I don’t know, if anyone in the climate sphere can truly say where we are, except it’s pretty dire.
    AJ

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. McPherson has a track record of f-ing maths. Using power of 100 instead of 10 as an example.

      He has been critiqued by other climate change people, and he’s always got his excuses as to why actual climate scientists are wrong and he’s right.

      I think he cares deeply about the natural world, was gutted all the naughty humans didn’t get smited in the 2009 peak oil apocalypse, and then jumped onto to the next thing, global climate change.

      Quite frankly, McPherson meets a lot of criteria for a cult leader, just in scientific drab (to paraphrase JMG). Yes I get it, we’re all going to die next Tuesday… where do I pay you my hard-earned money for “grief counselling”

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

        1. Hello Rob and friends,

          You’ve piqued my curiosity about this Guy McPherson and I went onto his website for a little looksee. I don’t know about his earlier material (and I gather it was rather melodramatic, and after all, you can’t be a messenger for NTHE without copping lots of flak no matter how presented) but the most recent presentations to my mind and heart are sincere and plausible offerings, especially given that in just this past year we have seen such accelerated climate chaos. As we have discussed here earlier, the difference between 5 years and 50 isn’t all that material in the great scheme of things when we’re talking civilisational collapse and mass extinction. Anyway, as you know I’ve been in and out of a bit of a downward spiral but I took away something very comforting and even healing from his talks, and that is to consider this planet and everyone and everything on it to be in end-stage hospice care, and to act accordingly in how we treat ourselves, one another, and especially in our relationship with Earth. We can be compassionate, understanding, grateful, honouring, but above all, generous in spirit to be kind and accepting of ourselves and others. There is no one way to die and we all must pass through this portal. That really hit the spot for me because it crystallises my feelings of grief and gives me a clear direction on how to direct that sadness into how to continue my days of life. It is meaningful and useful for me to try to alleviate whatever unease or pain those in my circle are experiencing in whatever way I choose to give.

          Glenn Albrecht, an environmental philosopher, created the word solastalgia which partly describes what I am feeling. It is the pain and distress experienced when the place where one lives and loves is under immediate destruction. It encompasses a kind of acute homesickness as one struggles to find belonging in what is eroding away. This is what philosophers and poets do at their best, they put into words what is otherwise indescribable and somehow other beings can feel through them, and maybe even share the same emotion and understanding. I am not unhappy, I am not depressed, but it is most definitely a feeling of heartbreak as I come to accept that we are facing an unfathomable loss for which we have so much responsibility. It is a sadness that cannot be separated from deep remorse, but always there is awe and gratitude waiting to soothe. And there is still action to be done which is perhaps the best comfort of all. We are all in hospice care now and we must take care of one another as our final directive.

          Namaste friends.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Sorry you’re in a blue phase Gaia. Hope you pull out soon.

            I agree with all your comments about McPherson. He definitely says a lot of true and wise things.

            My issue is that I go way back with him and remember all the absolute predictions he made that were wrong, and I never saw him demonstrate a self-correcting process where he admitted, learned from, and improved going forward. This self-correcting process is key for me to trust someone.

            I also am a little creeped out by the cult leader vibe he projects.

            But as I said, he’s very knowledgeable and says a lot of true and wise things.

            Like

            Reply

            1. Thank you for your commiseration, Rob. I feel uplifted just by being able to be honest here and understood. But I don’t think I can ever drop this pall of grief now. Frankly, I don’t believe I deserve to (because those of us who have peeked out from the blanket of denial should have the courage to bear witness to what we are a part, after all, the only monsters under the bed are we), and even more frankly, I don’t want to. Profound sadness seems to be a very natural reaction to impending death of a beloved, in honour and in gratitude of our relationship which is now ending. This is the time to be sorrowful, to add to all the other times in our human centric history. I think I am understanding a bit more now how your good friend Gail felt when she learned of the dying trees.

              I do not feel despair in that I am not paralyzed into inaction or lost the capacity for joy and wonder–if anything, I am finding more moments of heart-rending beauty and becoming even more aware of the preciousness of life and consciousness. You would find me as eager as ever for Spring and getting my hands into the soil, there are still trees to plant and visit as old friends. Everything just seems at once both more final and transient, not that life was anything other than that, but to me it all seems that much more crystallised, and my emotions are even closer to the surface now, no need to deny them either. My mind and heart are both overflowing. It is an awakening of sorts into a new state of being, and I am accepting that this is how I will carry myself through the end, fragile and uncertain as it is but then again, as Charles’ master once asked “were you promised anything in this life?” The only thing I was promised is the only thing we are all given, a chance at life and with that, no more can ever be asked.

              I am a bit intrigued with your thoughts about Guy McPherson. It must have been difficult to espouse a concept like immediate human extinction without giving some rough timelines to shore up the extreme pronouncement, but although he hasn’t admitted the obvious misplacement of dates, one would have to say that the idea has merit and we’re getting very much warmer now (pun not intended). Scientists of all persuasions have given their best guestimates for every outcome of their fields–we humans are a betting lot, it must be in our genes, too. In this scheme of things, talking catastrophic extinction, I think a general trend towards the endpoint is already enough evidence that cannot be disregarded, and if the messenger is knowledgeable and courageous enough to make his knowledge known, then the ball is in our court if we wish to assimilate it. I found his recent presentations quite balanced between stating facts and drawing people into how to make those facts liveable, as dire as it seems. There is a great appeal to that as people are always seeking a lifeline, and those that don’t crucify you outright will seek you as a saviour of sorts, especially if you preach something as drastic as end of life as you know it. This is the story of religion, after all. Jesus and Buddha only started by telling scattered people their version of how they saw things, they never expected to be worshipped and turn into a major world religion completely changed beyond their recognition at that. Christianity and Buddhism could definitely be considered cults in their origins, the only difference now is they have dominated all other fledgling ones. Interestingly, the sects of Christianity that focus on end-time prophecies do have that cult perception amongst the other mainstream denominations and it does seem often their congregations are highly centred on a dynamic leader (this is from experience having family members who have been sucked into such). I can see how someone who tells of end-times as clearly as Guy may also attract a like following, for whatever reason, but I do not get the sense in any way that he is deliberately taking advantage of his position to subsume minds. If anything, I think he is doing his best to help relieve any suffering caused by the facts he is distilling and one method he uses is drawing from the wisdom of the past, both western and other traditions, much like our guest poster Charles. I for one have found this very helpful for my own reflection and acceptance of our situation.

              Thank you again Rob and everyone for being on the other end. I know these are difficult times for all of us in different ways and just to be seen and heard is perhaps the greatest service we can give one another now.

              Namaste.

              Like

              Reply

              2. Again yes. I especially love your second paragraph: “Everything just seems at once both more final and transient”. The paradoxical (to our limited mind at least) nature of being.

                About McPherson, what I feel is that he had to cope with a lot of accumulated anger. This made him sound sometimes ego-centrical, like he is trying to bash you with his knowledge. Kind of protective ivory tower.
                But I believe his message to be of value. It was for me at least at some point, which lead to another track and so on…

                Funnily, I read somewhere (sorry I lost the reference, maybe from a psychohistorian) positive philosophies, like Christ’s, were the worst kind of oppressive system: they set an example which can never be attained in real life but make everybody feel miserable in comparison. Exemptions are also skilfully set to canalise frustrations into “useful” activities (such as war).

                Like

                Reply

  28. great essay and compendium of links, most of which I recognized. It was like a great poem full of allusions that one has to know the greek mythology behind to get the full flavour and meaning.
    “… machines will stop…” likely meant industrial production will stop but what about the almost immediate impact of global dimming? That is masking 5dC at least according to Sam Carana.
    Yes the biotic pump is a thing and could kick in fast. Joe Brewer is working in that direction with Design School for Regenerating Earth. Walter Jehne was referenced in your essay, a huge fan of him, I am.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Thank you very much for your appreciation and in-depth reading.

      Yes, global dimming, most probably. As much as 5dC, that I don’t know. In a previous comment (https://un-denial.com/2023/07/30/by-charles-doomers-visions-of-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-89935), Rob attributes only 0.5 to soot. It may be more, but I am unsure about the scientific soundness of Sam Carana.

      According to my understanding we are quickly going into a hotter planet. (To give some perspective, I like this chart https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/All_palaeotemps.png, with some caveats https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/can-we-make-better-graphs-of-global-temperature-history/)
      It seems to me this ensures we are way off-chart for the continuation of the industrial civilization or feeding the current population with grains.

      Other than that, they say only imagination is the limit: can forests shield us from the worst, will we regenerate or go on destroying them, will we let life (including marine life https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FPtmj84Wmc&t=492s) sequester carbon or will we continue (to have the means) to scrap it to the bones, will we try geo-engineering at a large scale, can it be done low-tech, would that be truly wise, will we shift to live underground feeding on mushrooms, will our bodies adapt to the point we become cold-blooded lizard men, or simply accept to wander the desert land as postmodern Bedouins… I don’t know.
      For what it is worth, if I understood well, the Exodus lasted 40 years, with 1/40th of the population dying each year, while keeping stable during the whole journey. Maybe adaptation requires this kind of increased rate of population renewal.

      By the way, thank you for bringing up Joe Brewer. I didn’t know him and he seems an interesting person to discover.

      Like

      Reply

  29. Rob, I am curious to hear your thoughts on this.

    I have a friend with whom I discussed al the problems we face as a species and I gave him Alice’s book “When trucks stop running..” It is the most potent book when it comes to understanding the predicaments we face as it is full of numbers and facts which are more or less indisputable and not really open to interpretation. To my surprise he was able to absorb all of it and came to the same conclusion that industrial civilization in its present for was unsustainable.

    I had not spoken to him for a few years and now he is married and with a kid on the way and his view has completely flipped. He still accepts that fossil fuels are finite and with present technology we cannot replace them. But he believes that fusion is just around the corner and A.I will help us in both solving fusion and maximizing the potential of renewables. Jesus!! he even implied that there may be some team of scientists secretly working on a solution for al this.

    My theory is that because he is now invested in the future of civilization that the denial gene has kicked in and this basically confirms my theory that the only way to see the truth is to disinvest from the future of civilization completely.

    A few years back there was a Nobel Laureate in Physics who said that climate change and energy transition is very easy to solve if we just cover small fraction of Sahara in solar panels. I believe that the civilization gives meaning to his Nobel Prize, without it he is nobody, he has no legacy, he is no different from someone making tiktok videos for a living.

    Thoughts..

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Hi Kira, your friend’s response to facts about overshoot is the norm for most people. It’s fascinating to observe and is the reason I started this blog because unless we confront this genetic tendency, no progress at reducing harms from overshoot is possible.

      Humans are a very odd and unique species. We are the only species that believes in gods and life after death, the only species with the intelligence to visit the moon and the foolishness to build nuclear weapons, and we deny unpleasant realities regardless that our intelligence is more than capable of understanding the facts.

      Dr. Ajit Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory provides a plausible explanation for all of these unique human features.

      Theory (short)

      Like

      Reply

      1. I have watched Dr Varki’s videos and am familiar with his work and also agree with his observations. I have to confess that at first I was skeptical because how can a species that can reach the edge of the solar system cannot see something so obvious and simple. But I think from my own experiences I have come to realize that it has nothing to do with intellect because the physics and math needed to understand is absolutely elementary.

        I have to add that when I gave him the book he was jobless for a few years, overweight and as a result had not dated in years and was at the lowest point in his life. He had very little to look forward to and was therefore not concerned about the civilization’s survival. Now he is in a very high paying job and has a beautiful wife and fancy house and car.

        This highlights the core problem with seeing the truth. We humans need to have a purpose that defines us and gives us self worth to keep moving and more often than not that purpose comes from our environment. If you are living in a hunter gatherer tribe your purpose comes from the tribe, from the land, from the forests and not from civilization. On the other hand if you live even in a developing country like India or China your purpose will be to be successful and buy a bigger house and a bigger car than your peers so you can get a better mate. This automatically plugs you into the civilization and invests you into it.

        Even if you are in a low point in your life and are momentarily able to see the truth like my friend was it is temporary and as soon as you get back into the rat race the denial will kick in.
        My observation on this site and others like this is that people here are in their 50s or 60s or 70s so their investment may be a little less which allows them to see the truth a bit more clearly .

        Like

        Reply

        1. It’s possible that the need for purpose is driving the bus as you suggest. I think it more likely that the Maximum Power Principle (MPP) is driving the bus and can explain all of the things you mention and ascribe to purpose.

          I think MPP drives the behavior of all life and that high intelligence cannot exist in the universe unless evolution finds a way to prevent that intelligence from interfering with executing the MPP. On this planet, evolution discovered denial as a means to enable high intelligence without compromising the MPP.

          In the early days of behaviorally modern humans this manifested as denial of mortality so that we did not become depressed and quit fighting to survive.

          Today it manifests as denial of overshoot so that we continue to have children and drive for economic growth despite the fact our actions are dramatically increasing future harms from overshoot.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Yes I agree that MPP does seem to the underlying mechanism in the background driving the events and shaping our civilization. But what are its implications?

            Does that mean that even though it maybe possible for an individual in a group to see the reality – either because of circumstances or because of certain unique neural arrangements-
            it would be impossible for the system itself to deviate from the goal of producing maximum power possible regardless of consequences just a few years down the line.

            What is truly fascinating is that even people like Nate Hagens , Richard Heinberg Simon Michaux – who are people I deeply respect for their knowledge and their contributions to helping me understand our predicament – seem to suffer from some amount of denial.
            They seem to engage in what I call bargaining for civilization where they want some aspects of civilization to remain intact while accepting collapse in others. That is impossible.

            The only few people in this field who are able to see the long term future are Alice Friedman or
            Tim Watkins who make it clear that when the dust is settled by the end of this century most of the world will be back to pre industrial age and few pockets where accessible coal remains can maintain 19th century life at best for a few years.

            Given this how do you propose to change course for this civilization. I know that you have suggested that we reduce the population through birth lottery system. Even an authoritarian country like China can’t impose something like this. At best a one child policy may be possible with the threat of withdrawing benefits as punishment serving as a deterrent against second one.

            If the system is self organizing as at certainly seems to be then any interventions will prove futile. For instance if you try to reduce population through birth lottery system that immediately results in economic collapse as the system is designed for growth and needs young population to keep it going.

            Like

            Reply

            1. When I started this blog I thought I had discovered the key to preventing our species from self-destructing. I had hopes that knowledge of our genetic tendency to deny reality would spread and that we might take steps to self-correct. Just as we did with knowledge that flying a plane while drunk has a genetic component and can danger society.

              It’s clear now that even if Varki’s MORT theory is eventually accepted as being correct, it will make no difference. None of the influential thinkers in the overshoot space have embraced MORT. No one in the environmental movement has embraced MORT despite it explaining why every one of their initiatives has, and will continue to fail.

              Denial of denial seems to be the strongest form of denial.

              My message to those people still fighting to make the future less bad is that they must start by confronting MORT and must make population reduction the top priority. Not because I think they will but because it is the only good path. As an aside, if you want an economy that does not collapse without growth then you must change the monetary system to not be a fractional reserve system. Given how much debt we’ve built up, getting from here to there will probably involve a collapse.

              My message to everyone else (and myself) is to be an observer of the insanity and to try to explain why it is happening to help retain our own sanity.

              Like

              Reply

            2. To answer your question about what I would do if I had infinite power, I personally like the birth lottery proposed by Jack Alpert because it is ethical, aggressive, and fair, all important qualities for any population reduction policy. But there are probably dozens of policies we could dream up, none of which the majority will vote for.

              Instead, I’d like to see our intellectual, cultural, and political leaders start speaking publicly that 6+ billion people will experience horrible premature deaths in the next 50 years because of overshoot collapse. Getting this message out would cause the population to fall without any policies.

              Like

              Reply

              1. But if we are capable of reducing our energy consumption or power output voluntarily, doesn’t that go against the principle of MPP?

                For instance if we assume that the power we are outputting today is the peak power then if we reduce our discretionary consumption like air travel, electronic gadgets basically anything absolutely unnecessary and distribute all of energy fairly and equally among 8 billion people then we can have basic healthcare, education, sanitation ,adequate food supply , drinking water for all of us while significantly reducing our energy needs.

                That means that even though the system is self organizing it can be tweaked if the most important parties in the system agree to do it.

                Like

                Reply

                1. I’m not expert enough on MPP to know if voluntarily reducing energy flow necessarily violates the MPP.

                  For example, if that voluntary cut avoids a crash then total energy integrated over some period may be maximized.

                  Is a farmer violating the MPP when he reduces the size of his herd to adjust to a long term drought, rather than risking the entire herd to starvation and disease?

                  Like

                  Reply

                  1. If I am not mistaken MPP was conceptualized with biological and specifically microorganisms in mind which self organize and there is no possibility of agency.

                    It proposes that systems that maximize their flow of energy survive in competition and therefore any prevailing system will do the same.

                    In the example of the farmer if there is another farmer competing for the same pasture then the second farmer will win out according to the MPP because he will be able to maximize his energy flow temporarily. But if both of theme agree to reduce the size of the herd then the both win in the long term even though they are not maximizing their energy flows.

                    If you are talking about total energy flow integrated over a period of time that only works when there is no competition. For instance we could voluntarily reduce consumption and draw out our fossil reserves to from a few decades to centuries and the energy flow would essentially be the same. But this is only possible because there is no other species or civilization competing for those resources with us.

                    Like

                    Reply

                    1. I was thinking of a farmer that owned his land and did not have to worry about another farmer encroaching.

                      Competition does put a different spin on things. Last man standing wins, so party on.

                      We need aliens to attack so the competition becomes another planet and we can act as one tribe.

                      Like

              2. I think Rob, that you underestimate the genetic tendency of many women here. For many women, life has no meaning without children. My daughter, quite literally from the moment she could walk, was fascinated and obsessed with babies. She is a clever girl, effortlessly attaining a high score in her final year of school, yet completely without ambition – her sole ambition in life being to reproduce. When this turned out to be problematical, as it is with so many of the young now, this clever, balanced, sweet person became fanatically obsessed with reproduction to the exclusion of all else. After seven years, and countless thousands of dollars, she is about to have a child, but had this not happened, I think her life would have been over.

                For many, many women, 50 years of not being able to reproduce would make life not worth living and would have its own civilisation-ending reprecussions.

                Like

                Reply

                1. You’re probably right. Reproducing and finding enough food to do so are probably our strongest evolved behaviors.

                  I wonder if your daughter might have chosen a different path if she understood that there was a very high probability that her child will suffer and die prematurely? I’ll bet not because her denial circuit would prevent her from understanding the implications of overshoot.

                  Like

                  Reply

                  1. Rob, you ask whether my daughter might have chosen a different path if she understood her child might suffer and die prematurely.
                    Sadly the answer is that from the age of two, I as her mother, was aware of escalating environmental issues and was active in ‘Sustainable Population Australia’ from when she was three. I then went on to persuade my husband to sell our family home and buy one in the country in 2004, when she was 14, so we could have somewhere to go when peak oil hit.
                    My husband and both daughters growing up, simply could not take on that there is any threat to the planet or themselves, and like everyone else who is collapse-aware here, I gradually learnt to say nothing.

                    Both now-married daughters practice recycling, refuse to buy from Kmart and Ikea, and toys must be obtained from op shops – tokenism at its best – but that is their only concession to overshoot and looming planetary collapse in their and their childrens’ lifetimes.

                    Though my husband and my marriage didn’t survive his denial, we are still a happy, loving family – but only due to my never, ever mentioning peak oil or climate change, even though my entire life is devoted to building them and the grandchildren a life raft, they can still turn a blind eye and pretend that I am merely an eccentric doomer.

                    So my family is a very fine example of Varki’s MORT!

                    Liked by 1 person

                    Reply

                    1. Thank you for sharing your story. It’s comforting to know others have had similar experiences. My marriage also did not survive my awakening. There were other issues of course but if I had remained in denial I suspect the relationship might have survived.

                      I still remember the exact moment when the implications of peal oil hit me. It was like someone punched me in the guts. Everything changed for me in that instant.

                      Like

                    2. An apt analogy, Rob. I too was completely overwhelmed and panicked by the imminence peak oil in 2004. That nothing happened then, and their lives are seemingly now the same as then, my children take as proof of it being a doomer hoax…..

                      Like

                    3. A lot happened, just not as we expected.

                      0% interest, unrecoverably dangerous government debt, unprofitable fracking, fear used to lock down the economy and to force people to inject inadequately tested substances, orchestrated irrelevant distractions to prevent people from focusing on the real issues, etc. etc.

                      Like

                    4. Yeah, it changed my life and is still valid. Fracking in the USA was the only thing that stopped it happening at that time. The interesting thing now is that the peak of all liquids (according to Nate Hagens, though peak crude, so far, is around the same time) happened in October 2018. Maybe the addition of so-called renewables has kept global civilisation ticking along but it surely can’t last much longer.

                      Liked by 1 person

            3. I think you see that reducing births can lead to unintended consequences. Although I wouldn’t vote for it myself (I’m getting old) I think the logical way to reduce population is to increase the death rate. This could be effective quite quickly by doing away with most health services – I’d probably want pain control to remain and possibly voluntary euthanasia. This will never happen, of course, until civilisation goes away.

              Like

              Reply

              1. Mike, I think most health services are already declining and this will only accellerate in time, so yes, the longevity rate will naturally decline and if there is a sudden collapse, the boomers will be among the first to go, including us.

                Around 1977 I saw an ABC documentary on a village high in the mountains somewhere (no idea where) which was about to become linked to the rest of the world by the construction of a new road. Until this time the village had been cut off from civilisation, with the only link to the outside world being a perilous week-long trek across the mountain.

                In my twenties then, I can remember being fascinated by the documentary stating that the village had maintained a steady state of population and consumption for hundreds, maybe thousands of years by the practise of only the eldest child being able to marry and procreate, the other children being either farm hands, home makers, or priests.

                In my mid twenties then and 10 years before I became collapse-aware, I never forgot the documentary and my thinking then that this might be a model for the future, as everyone would not only have a purpose and a place, but all would have access to the children and their upbringing.

                Like

                Reply

                2. I remember watching an episode of “The Ascent of Man”, probably in the 90s, about the Bakhtiari people in Iran. The are/were nomadic so lived a fairly basic wandering existence with some domesticated animals. Anyway, the old people just did everything the younger people did but were offered no special assistance. If they couldn’t keep up with the tribe, when they moved, they knew they would get left behind. No resources were squandered on the oldies. Sad but almost logical.

                  Like

                  Reply

        2. Perhaps another way to think of this that makes us both right is that MPP is our purpose.

          Stated another way, the goal of the universe is to dissipate energy gradients, and life is its best invention for accomplishing this.

          Like

          Reply

          1. I am not sure I understand MPP that well. I’d say time plays a role. I mean, we could have started burning coal, say 100 years earlier in history. It was already underground waiting to be exploited. And we didn’t burn as much oil as we do today on the first day of the industrial revolution. We got there by increasing cycles feeding the growth of machinery.

            Also, I am not sure all energy dissipations are equal. If I understand well, energy dissipations that give an edge on competition will tend to prevail. In other words, organisms that are able to collect and waste vast amount of energy to inflict self-harm will be wiped out by more efficient competition.

            I am unsure about the following, it’s some kind of intuition (which seems valid to me).
            I think MPP is also the reason we will collectively change behaviour very quickly. But only when it will physically “make sense”, not before, not after. The players have to radically change behaviour once the no-limit, growth phase ends. Pillage and plunder does not sound as effective when you do not sit on a (quasi) unlimited stock anymore. Slower, smarter strategies that couldn’t emerge before will make increasingly sense. In particular, those strategies that preserve the naturally distributed sparse sustainable resource base (in other words the land, the sea, the water flow…)

            When and at which speed will the change occur. I don’t really know. One thing I am certain of: we will most likely remain in denial. I guess we will simply change our myths and still pretend that we are in control. (Like the king of the little prince: “You shall have your sunset. I shall command it. But, according to my science of government, I shall wait until conditions are favorable.”)

            Are life and energy gradients like a shape and its mold? Is life discovering the physical “rules” of the universe by incremental approximations made of swarms of beings.

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

        3. It would be fun to do a survey or poll of the un-denial readers. I wonder if that would give us some insights on what it takes to bust through denial?

          Like

          Reply

          1. I think it would take a new species to emerge that doesn’t act like any other species in terms of maximising its consumption, especially where that species has the capability to engineer its own environment, to some degree, to increase that maximum. Continuing that behaviour can be viewed as denial (because ending that behaviour would take acceptance of what that behaviour leads to). So, I don’t think it’s possible to bust through denial. It would be great if I am wrong.

            Like

            Reply

          2. I’ve always been conscious of our impact even as a child. Yet this didn’t stop me from having kids or flying – although it wasn’t till about ten years ago that I fully grasped how totally screwed we are. This was due to some events in my life that caused me to really question everything. I think the vast majority have no idea – and are incapable of knowing.
            On a happier note I’ve just spent the last half hour making butter. I never appreciated how simple it is to make.
            Milk the cow.
            Leave the milk in large saucepan overnight.
            Scrap the cream off the top.
            Gather three days worth of cream
            Put it in the mix master till it turns into butter (about half an hour)
            Wash the butter in cold water.
            Add salt to taste.

            We bought another cow recently and now have oodles of milk. We mostly just scrap the cream off the top and feed the skim milk to a friends pigs.
            I’m really enjoying the cream. It tastes so damn good. Some mornings I literally just drink a cup of cream for breakfast.
            It really pisses me off that I was taught that saturated fat is bad for you. Just last night I read an article on the ABC website demonising saturated fat. Arggg… There is so much evidence that saturated fat is not the villain we thought it was and yet the myth still lives on.
            How’s sugar free going for you Rob?
            I’m 18 months in now and won’t be going back.

            Liked by 3 people

            Reply

            1. Nice story about making butter. I fondly remember milking a cow by hand and extracting the cream with an old hand crank centrifuge machine in about 1972 when I spent a summer on an aunt’s farm.

              I’m still on my sugar free diet and have no plan to stop. I do eat 1 piece of fresh fruit and often a few pieces of dried fruit every day but that’s it for sugar.

              Like

              Reply

              1. That’s great, Rob. I don’t think there is a need to skimp on fresh fruit, as the sugar is wrapped in fibre, slowing the sugar digestion. I have a fresh fruit salad every day, with as much fruit as I can pack into the bowl (though seasonally varied) topped with raw activated seeds and nuts, coconut yoghurt (home made) and milk kefir. It’s possibly my favourite meal of the day, every day.

                I sometimes make my own butter from bought cream. Used to do it often from raw cream but just couldn’t justify the trip to get the raw milk every week.

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

                  1. That meal has actually turned into my evening meal. It started as breakfast, then it became lunch and now, mostly, the evening meal. The reasons not interesting.

                    Activating the seeds and nuts reduces the phytic acid in them, making the nutrients more available and easier to digest. It’s thought to be a feature of seeds to stop them sprouting prematurely. Activating just requires soaking for some period of time, though overnight is the most common. Some say the water should be salted but I can’t think why that would be and just use water, myself. Some seeds can be sprouted, as the next step and either eaten just as the sprout emerges or as the longer sprouts that are common with health conscious folk. I’ve sprouted sunflower, buckwheat, lentil and wheat seeds. Sprouting can take longer and requires draining and regular rinsing after the soaking (best with a mesh lid on a jar). After activating or sprouting, I just let them dry out and then sometimes toast them after tossing in Tamari soy sauce. That really is delicious. Not all seeds work as activated because some are mucilaginous, like chia and flax seeds, though they can still be activated if used in cooking. Nuts can be activated but I’ve never sprouted them.

                    I buy organic seeds and do the activating myself but sometimes buy activated nuts and seeds. A company I use often does nothing other than activated seeds and nuts, so I sometimes by raw muesli from them to sprinkle on the fruit. Yes, it is delicious and I often make my own chocolate with plenty of such seeds in it.

                    You can probably look this stuff up but I’m happy to expand on anything, though I’m not really an expert; I just like doing a lot of this stuff myself.

                    Like

                    Reply

      1. Some of that milk powder is baby nutrient formula made to the highest international standards. I’m not sure what % of it goes to junk food, I’ll need to look into that

        Like

        Reply

        1. I recall a talk by one of NZ’s star environmentalists who has brought attention to the nitrates introduced into the ground water by the dairy industry and he said most of the exported milk powder is used to make junk food. Sorry don’t remember his name but he seemed trustworthy.

          Like

          Reply

  31. Recycling an old quote by me I like.

    Two back-to-back global events in which our leaders lied about everything and implemented policies that made no sense can be understood when viewed through the lens of imminent overshoot collapse. Covid was an attempt to prepare for the possibility of not securing the resources needed to resume growth, and Ukraine is an attempt to get the resources.

    Like

    Reply

      1. Thanks. I remember reading that excellent list of reasons people deny peak oil by Alice Friedemann when she published it. It reminds me of Nate Hagens’ long list of behaviors that contribute to overshoot in that both of them miss the fact that Varki’s MORT underpins most of their observations.

        To answer your question, I doubt our leaders frame our problems as overshoot but we can be certain that, for example, European leaders know they need Russia’s energy. Hence their attempt to cause regime change in Russia.

        Like

        Reply

  32. Tom Murphy today does the math to demonstrate that returning to a hunter-gatherer lifestyle won’t be so bad. In fact it might be pleasant.

    Murphy does not mention the fact that there may be nothing left to hunt or gather, but let’s not worry about minor details.

    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/desperate-odds/

    Well, we know something relevant: humans routinely survived to reproductive age. Otherwise, the species would fail to hang on. For an individual, attaining a 50% chance of surviving through adolescence corresponds to a daily death probability of about 0.01%, or one chance in 10,000 (would drop a bit to 1 in 8,000 to have a 50% chance of living just to age 15).

    How scary would that feel? Such low odds are not consistent with living in constant fear, looking over one’s shoulder for the fatal agent one step behind. One in ten-thousand sounds more like having life basically figured out, so that most days are free of close calls.

    At this 99.99% daily survival rate, a simple “half-life” exponential decay process would have about a quarter of people making it to age 40, and 10% to age 60. Life expectancy would technically be about 19 years (median) at this rate, but white hair and wrinkles would not be unknown: every clan would sport a few elders.

    Admittedly, this model is dirt-simple. But it is still capable of illustrating a reasonable point. Unless following the strategy of having offspring by the thousands or millions, species don’t survive if the odds of individual survival are stacked heavily against them. Survivors have things figured out well enough that each day is pretty mellow. As a whole, you know how to find sufficient food. You know how to stay warm enough or cool enough. You know how to avoid predation day to day. If not, bye bye, species. Any species that has survived for the last several million years is demonstrably capable of dealing with one-in-a-million bad-luck years—including whole strings of tough years such as during ice ages.

    When I think about life before civilization, I am filled with admiration, not anxiety. If I were thrown into living in the wild, as a product of modernity I probably would not fare too well. I think this is part of why people react the way they do. But first, individualism is a new thing: an aberration enabled by modernity. Pre-modern living was as a social team—not as a contestant on a reality show. Second, we’ve lost a lot of knowledge and wisdom for how to live without modern conveniences. But many of the social instincts are still there, waiting to be utilized again in something akin to their original context.

    If plunged overnight into the end of civilization, we would have a rough go of it. But given time to adapt and shed the trappings of modernity, those who are willing to let go and embrace new (old?) ways of living will stand a decent chance of being satisfied with life.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Excellent piece by Tom. I think it might also illustrate the perils of a low birthrate, as opposed to a high death rate to keep population in check. But, certainly, with ancestral knowledge of how to live on the land, it might be a reasonably satisfactory life, most of the time. Probably not for an oldie like me, though.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    2. How nice that we are finally admitting that aboriginal peoples all around this planet had a successful, satisfying, and meaningful life after all before our civilised invaders all but committed genocide on those they considered savages. It’s really too bad that there’s hardly any left to perpetuate their cultures which had a track record of tens of thousands of years, the most sustainable as we have as Homo sapiens, maybe not permanently but the best candidate that we have compared to our spectacular failure. It’s almost quaint that we wish now to segue ourselves back to that knowledge and wisdom and imagine it can be fulfilling when it’s actually our last gasp hope. There was precious little indication we truly cared for other ways of living on this planet in all the centuries prior.

      The Cree nation’s prophecy got it so right all those years ago when we stood at the beginning of the unrestrained fossil-fueled binge. “Only when the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten, and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.” Now it looks that we won’t have to wait until we actually do those things to the letter as the earth itself is doing a damned good job reminding us that our economy is not on nature’s agenda.

      Here in Australia, we’re about to vote on a referendum to see if it should be constituted that the Aboriginal peoples have a permanent voice in Parliament, and the “No” camp is decidedly strong. Fancy trying to learn from them how they managed to thrive on this continent for 60,000 years before colonisation, now what would that take? Pride comes before the fall, how true that is.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Gaia don’t be fooled by two things.

        Firstly the aboriginals were not sustainable. They completely changed the the landscape of Australia through fire practices and hunting out all of the mega fauna. The pollen fossil record shows that eucalypts only came into dominance after the arrival of man. But it is fair to say that they had far less impact on and a spiritual tie to country. Better than modern civ but interestingly there seems to be not many who would go back to a H and G life style.

        Secondly, the voice is not to help the aboriginals it is to insert a non elected body of decision makers into our democratic constitutional processes. I am all for aboriginals getting land back and so forth but this is not the way. All our rights are at risk from this, including aboriginals. We are being played as usual. Hopefully Australians will be more awake than they were with vaccines.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

        1. Hello my fellow Aussie niko,

          Hope you’re going well and enjoying the rather mild winter weather. Thank you for all of that, I appreciate your comments and see your logic very much. I realise now that in time any Homo sapiens tribe in order to survive would have changed their environment greatly but is it fair to say that until agriculture and all that it spawned, that early humans’ experiment on a way of living that we called hunter/gatherer (but isn’t that the way of all life, when it boils down to it?) worked long enough to get all of us from 300,000 years ago until 10,000 years when some tribes in different parts of the world developed an alternative method (agriculture) that soon dominated/subsumed their neighbours . And the cultures that evolved from those tribes that managed to escape or be isolated from their dominance became our first nation peoples all around the world. It is only conjecture because we cannot prove it but it seems possible that the planet would have continued more or less in relative balance with the scope of these hunter gatherer humans for thousands more years as one long evolutionary process. So certainly I would say they had far less impact on the land and no question the land was their life and spirit rather than their possession.

          I do not say their way of life was “better” than the path we have taken, that is not for me to judge because how can I, not even having an inkling of their way of life and so immersed in this one, but it was another choice that now we do not have. If our goal for human life is “fulfilment” in whatever way you define it, then certainly it would seem that the first nation people’s path reached that same destination and most likely a greater percentage of their members. Would their happiness and joy be any less than ours upon viewing a sunrise, or satisfaction in working out a task? So what I am trying to say is there are many ways to “be human” and live in the manner that suits our physical and mental make-up. I think their ways would have had longer staying power than the culmination of what began 10,000 years ago, because that is what we all originated from. But of course now we cannot go back directly into a true hunter and gatherer lifestyle, at least not all of us and all at once. This is not our world now, but we will have to use the best of our human prowess, our ingenuity, to work out what new or hybrid form of lifestyle will work, drawing from the old and new. This of course is if we had the luxury of a habitable planet, and it pains me to admit that the only reason we are having this kind of discussion now is because we are facing an uninhabitable planet.

          I believe we have a resident anthropologist in monk, I would love to hear your ideas, too.

          As for the Voice. my real feeling is it is poor lip service in restitution of the continuing travesty of the clash between two ways of life. Whatever way it goes, it will not help the Aboriginal people because we still do not and probably cannot ever put ourselves into their perspective because what they have undergone has not been done to us. It is only our idea of how to make it right because the main aim is to make us feel we did something to make it right, to assuage the guilt and responsibility in such a high-profile way. It is like the dedication to the Aboriginal people and their county before each public event, the renaming of states, cities, mountains–it all makes us feel like we’ve made some great reparation because it is so public and demonstrative, but in the end it is just words, and we still retain the land and culture and the way we choose to remember history.

          Thank you for the chance to continue this dialogue.
          All the best to you and your family for the coming Summer.

          Like

          Reply

          1. This push to add indigenous political control without democracy is worrying to me. We have the same thing in NZ. What we get is unelected wealthy indigenous people with no democratic controls checking their power. It is rife for corruption. In NZ it’s called “co-governance”. Except poor Maori don’t get to vote on it, just get told who their representatives will be. It’s bullshit. I for one do not trust the people leading it in NZ, being mostly Waikato Tainui “leaders” with a long track record of corruption and stealing from their own tribe. And the structure for adding this layer of indigenous bureaucracy comes from the UN, one of the most useless institutions ever invented. We need less bureaucracy as we move forward and more local control. If we had local tribes voting for local leadership on councils it would be much better – and much more indigenous. Centralization and indigenous do not go together. This is Western nonsense, co-opting indigenous people’s aims for god knows what. I think it will be bad for everyone, but that’s just my opinion.

            With regards to mega-fauna extinction and humans – this is hotly debated in anthropology, see Wikipedia for a summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_extinction_event#:~:text=Human%20impact%20on%20megafauna%20populations,subject%20of%20long%2Drunning%20controversy.

            Humans are a megafauna too, and all megafauna have an impact on their environment. New Zealand had a similar thing with pre-Maori burning substantial forest to make it easier to hunt Moa. Still when the settlers arrived they said the sound of birds was so loud you could barely hear yourself think. The changes settlers have done in New Zealand far exceed anything done by Maori.

            Rob you may find this interesting, the Mori Ori people of the Chatham Islands were big into population control. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moriori

            With Australia, I haven’t read it (but it’s on my shelf to read) there is a good book on the subject: The Vanishing Continent: Australia’s Degraded Environment. I don’t know much about Australia sorry! I know my uncle who is a conservationist had described instances where an abo person would eat the last of a specifies even if they knew it was going extinct, because that’s their bush tucker. But still, they lived there for 50k years without said animal going extinct, so who’s really at fault here? How aboriginals treated the environment 100 years ago, with the pressure of settlers and land use changes is going to be remarkedly different from how they lived 250+ years ago.

            Another interesting thing to bear in mind is the distinction between indigenous and civilized is very very blurry. For example, if you look at the Americas, native Americans had periods of “civilization” and “indigenous” both varying through time and place. Where doing farming made sense for the climate, it happened. Where nomadic hunting made sense, it happened.
            There were villages in Ireland and Scotland practicing completely indigenous lifeways up until the 1970s – ways of life 1000s of years old that had seen many a civilization come and go. In fact through all the originators of civ like Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Mya, Indus valley etc. there are people living there today as indigenous people, living off the land.
            Another interesting way of life, is described in the book Tending the Wild. This is a hybrid lifestyle between gardening and nomadic living. You can find examples of this style of living all over the world.

            Eventually humans will have to return to living off the land. Ted Kaczynski, and I think Daniel Quinn, both argued that humans would always do farming. How could you stop people after all!? But going completely indigenous again, it’s hard to see how this could be done in much of the world. We couldn’t even go back to a Victorian standard of living anymore. The landscape is so denuded now. There are no fishes in the rivers, water is contaminated, no old growth trees left to cut down, no quality ores to mine, much of the top soil has been lost, etc. etc.

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

            1. I also forgot to add I am particularly fascinated by both Chinese and Japanese civilizations as examples of more sustainable or long-lasting civ – and how it becomes part of the culture. I need to learn more on this!
              Of course both nations have been through significant dark ages and periods of collapse before. Bamboo man, I’m telling you it’s great stuff

              Like

              Reply

              2. I remember hearing kiwi’s calling at night on Stewart Island many years ago. It’s the only place I’ve seen kiwi’s in the wild. New Zealand is much like Australia in that both places have been totally fucked over since colonisation. It wasn’t till we moved to Tasmania that I really grasped how utterly devastated most of the mainland is. New Zealand is much the same.
                My favourite book on the book shelf is mammals of Australia by Peter Menkhorst. So many of them are gone. It’s just tragic. Many of the ones left only exist on offshore islands or heavily fortified/ enclosed sanctuaries.

                When I was living in new Zealand I heard a radio show talk about one man’s quest to find the south Island Korkaka. It was a great story. I think the odds of finding a living population of korkaka’s on the south island are slim but we can hope….

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

            3. Thank you monk for sharing your time and knowledge, what you’ve offered is like an outline for a university course in Anthropology 101! Lots to digest here, and I will enjoy every mouthful! Humans are an interesting bunch if nothing else, and we can only hope to be surprised by our next transmogrification in survival.

              And thank you for those insights on how colonised NZ has handled her native peoples. It’s a sad tale told all around the planet when two different human worldviews collide.

              I am interested in your interest in Far East Asian civ, being a by-product of that! I think the key denominator to long-standing tenure was a very hierarchal society and just having so many mouths to feed kept people in check. The Son of Heaven mandate did seem to go some way to controlling the populace. Modern Japan and China did not have an easy birthing; I wonder what would have been the outcome if the West encroached with more force earlier in the timeframe.

              As an aside, are you familiar with the Judge Dee mystery series by Robert van Gulik? He was a Dutch diplomat and scholar of Chinese history and culture who wrote these highly engaging books about the magistrate Dee, a semi-fictional character who solved all manner of cases in his the Tang Dynasty. I think you would really get a kick out of them, they are rather delightful and really provide the flavour of those times.

              I’m surprised you can’t find steel cut oats in NZ. I thought every health food trend started in New Zealand! Keep looking, I think you will love them–they’re very oaty with a satisfying chew.

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

            4. I don’t really know what is meant by indigenous. Australian aborigines seem to have a good claim to the adjective, having been there for 40 to 50 thousand years, but Maori have only been in NZ for several hundred. NZ is becoming a kind of apartheid society where having an ancestral line that is traceable to those who immigrated here 700 years ago confers special privileges (there is now a Maori health service, for example, and Maori are allowed to fish when and where others can’t) but I agree that unelected Maori “leaders” seem to cream off what power and wealth they can. The sad thing is that so many ordinary people don’t seem to mind having this separation and even yell “racist” if one questions the development, because some historical Maori were hard done by (all nations have such people). Reparations seems to be the name of the game, though it’s difficult to see how those around one and a half centuries ago can be compensated for what others who were around one and a half centuries ago did. It’s a crazy world.

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

              1. I so agree with you Mike. I think most NZrs don’t support it, we’re all just too scared to say so. We’ll see it in this coming election though, I think Greens and Labour are going to lose worse than the polls are saying

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

            5. Monk, the Australian aborigines also practiced birth control. “The Life and Adventures of William Buckley” is a fascinating story of an escaped convict from the early 1800’s who lived among the aborigines in south eastern Victoria for 33 years. As Buckley was semi literate the account was written by a newspaper editor some 20 years after Buckly returned.

              According to Buckley, the woman herself would dispose of an unwanted child at birth. Buckly himself retained great affection for the aborigines and never really reintegrated into white society and couldn’t be brought to betray them.

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

    1. As far as I know, the problem with gold-back currencies is they severely limit your ability to grow. And they can cause more boom bust cycles. What it looks like the BRICS are wanting is an alternative to the USA dollar as the reserve currency. If they used digital innovation with real gold as the fix, then maybe it could work. It’s interesting to think about how a more constrained currency might be a good thing in a declining, rather than growing, economy.
      Another side-thought, 15 years ago people were really hyping the BRICS as the next big thing. But these countries don’t seem to be doing as well as was predicted. What they did have on their side was large populations, and rapidly growing populations in the case of India and China.
      “The BRICS countries represent 43% of the world’s population, 16% of the world’s trade, and a larger share of the world’s GDP than the G7.” Whatever they do, it is important as it will impact the whole world.
      The country people often forget will be important in the future is Nigeria. They are in a similar position to what China was in the 90s-ish. A growing population, lots of overseas uni educations, still a lot of energy reserves. They do have there issues too, but still they are one to watch.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  35. Fascinating that financial analyst Doomberg is not brave enough to use his real name or picture, presumably because he dances around peak oil issues, and yet the guy is completing in denial about overshoot.

    Paraphrasing: “Wind’s no good but there’s plenty of sunlight for prosperity forever”.

    He disagrees with Hagens and thinks we’ll have a lot more oil in 2040 because when the price goes up we’ll produce more.

    Doomberg is articulate and intelligent so if you’re sick of the doomer view and want some hopium, this is a good place to start.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    2. When Nate Hagens asked Doomberg (at 39 min 35 secs) about peak oil the response (paraphrased) was “… huge spikes in price will trigger technological leaps …” this is not what we have seen since 2008 when the price of oil almost touched 150 USD and people could no longer afford to pay mortgages.

      Instead we see high prices push people at the margin out of the market – resulting in demand destruction and a return to lower prices, without there being time for investment and technology improvements. This is especially true in the USA, a place with :
      – terrible infrastructure (stroads) / absence of a decent rail network
      – ridiculous single occupancy pickup trucks, and
      – the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the human race (suburbs, Kunstler).

      Doomberg is so wrong.

      Like

      Reply

      2. A video about suburbia and the environment.

        The poster is in denial about overpopulation and hasn’t made a video on peak oil, but the criticism of our economic system hits the nail on the head.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  36. After almost 100 years of civilization party, we are now experiencing a crash at the highest wave level.
    It’s not just about the Seneca Cliff in fossil fuels. It’s about diminishing frontiers in all economic and cultural areas.
    Everything is exhausted and overtightened. I have listed this above.
    We “human beeings” crush the survival possibilities of all other species and withdraws thereby the life basis for ourself.

    Overshoolt!!!

    If Doomberg admits that, his business model is broken. So he spreads hope, although there is no reason for it.

    Actually, we could also say here. Bye. that’s it. The last one turns off the light!

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  37. Greetings from Germany:

    We have become a nation of incompetent and manipulated chatterers. All we ever had was not large areas or mineral resources, but brains, knowledge, skill, the quality of the mind. All gone. We have turned it into a cult of incompetence. With egalitarianism instead of equal opportunities, educational chaos, bureaucracy monsters, commissioners for every nonsense, wokeness and gender stars. In addition, we have incompetent political puppets who represent the interests of global billionaires from Wall Street and the City of London and a synchronized press that keeps the masses in line.
    We have dumbed ourselves down systematically and with high pressure for over 30 years – and now we stand there and wonder why we look so stupid, with blown away pipelines and reawakened war lust.

    based on a quote from Hadmut Danisch

    Saludos

    el mar

    Like

    Reply

    2. I, unfortunately, have to say “amen”, and couldn’t agree more.
      😦

      At least, being so incompetent, we are giving plenty of chances to whatever next generation of wild invasive species, able to take advantage of our accumulated wastes.

      Like

      Reply

  38. I was curious to know what people on this site thought of preservation of knowledge which is the core theme of energyskeptic.com.

    Nobody here seems to mention it but everything that we have accumulated as a species from our understanding of the universe to our own DNA all of it is going to be lost and can never be regained because a civilization like this will never emerge again. I feel that is the most tragic part of the coming crisis.

    I don’t know why this is not talked about by anyone except Alice. Do people think that we can somehow maintain some small aspect of civilization where we can still print and reprint thousands and thousands of books every year? This is just as delusional as self-sufficient communities. Denial?

    Like

    Reply

    1. In addition to Alice Friedemann, Dr. Tom Murphy is also concerned about the loss of knowledge. He has spent his life advancing our understanding of physics and he knows it will probably all vanish.

      Personally, I view the loss of knowledge as a subset of a larger tragedy: The loss of all of the advanced accomplishments of an extraordinarily rare and possibly unique intelligent species in the universe.

      We’ve built a lot of amazing things.

      Like

      Reply

      1. I am familiar with Dr Murphy’s work and frequently visit his site. He is also one of the very few people just like Alice who can see the entire picture all the way to the point where the dust settles. Its almost hard to fathom that 100 years from now it is very likely that no one will even know who Einstein , Heisenberg, Bohr were because their work will have no significance in the real world.

        Alice and I had a discussion about this long time ago on her site and we agreed that the only knowledge that can survive will be one that will be useful in daily life. Euclid’s elements survived for over 2000 years and so did the work of other Greek and Arab mathematicians.
        Based on that even newton’s works may actually survive because it has real applications but applying this filter there may be hardly a few hundred books that will be worth reprinting and passing on to the future generations.

        I really wish books about denial like TMT and Dr Varki’s book will be passed too since it will explain what went wrong but that is just wishful thinking.

        Like

        Reply

        2. Hello Kira,
          I really appreciate your thoughtful and thought-provoking comments. I find myself struggling at times to make personal meaning from all of this impending loss, including our accumulated knowledge and ways of perpetuating and building upon that to serve our species’ needs which not only includes survival but our sense of wonder and creativity. I have come to the conclusion that our sense of accomplishment and therefore distress at the destruction of what is the pinnacle of these achievements is because we view them from the point of their creator, humans wish to perpetuate that which defines them. In the cosmic and even global scheme, no other species cares about the knowledge we have collectively gathered, despite every living thing abiding by the natural laws and bursting with the intricacies of life through evolution–they just exist and are, whilst we somehow have to discover what is already so and claim for our own.

          I also have been musing that now we finally have a taste of what it was like for peoples to have lost the sum total of their culture and knowledge through the worst chapters of our dominant cultured history. And to extrapolate this, every species that is extinct has also forever lost their everything, and it is only us humans who can feel for that loss. And so, it seems fitting that we are the only ones who can feel the urgency for what is at stake in our worldview, no other living thing will mark its passing, and if truth be told, if they could, they would probably feel relief. How has it come to pass that we are the only species that if went extinct would most likely be of most benefit to all others, what does our sum of knowledge have to say in face of that?

          It is not our pursuit of knowledge that has led to these culminating days, but what we have done and not done with it. Once we began to grasp the fullness of our living connection with all the biosphere and the natural laws which spin our cosmos, it could have led to a world view that we are part of this magnificence and as conscious beings we have the rarest privilege and duty to behold and reverence it. Instead, we have chosen to act as if we were the pinnacle of our planet and all has evolved to be under our domain. It gives me both solace and grief to acknowledge that not all cultures took this path, without Darwin or Einstein they were able to marvel at the world and know their place under the sun and stars, calling other creatures their brothers and sisters. Before we mourn the loss of our considerably recent accumulation of knowledge, perhaps we should grieve for the loss of theirs. Their learned and taught skills for survival were passed down for hundreds of generations before printed matter, whilst we have no recourse but to grasp tightly to what can be lost in an electronic blink or conflagration. Even with the physical methods of preserving our knowledge, we would require an on-going complex societal structure to continue the education process needed to transmit it, and put it all in practice through our economic system, fuelled by fossils leading to the peak complexity and material abundance a minority percentage of us have access to today. It is an interesting question whether knowledge is a self-organising construct, maybe the aim of knowledge is to beget more, it is like a catalogue of all possibility from which to draw from, at least I think AI would agree to that! I recall now the motto of the University of Chicago, where I spent undergraduate years. “Let knowledge grow from more to more, and thus human life be enriched” The emblem is a phoenix arising from the flames, interestingly. Knowledge has certainly grown, and some human life has been enriched, however you interpret it. But at what cost?

          How do we accept the end of everything that defines us? I suppose the same way we have to come to accept death, however we choose to view it. Maybe it will be a useful practice to imagine how we felt and lived before we had our knowledge, just like imagining the time before we were born.
          If we didn’t know it existed, the cessation of it would be like that. We can be sure that the universe will continue to follow its laws and life will keep evolving with what it has to work with whether or not it is quantified in a book! It is attachment to what we perceive as our own that causes our sense of loss and the suffering from it. I can see why the wisdom of Buddha has resonated with the psychological make-up of so many of our species.

          I am not a Buddhist or follower of any other religion but I have taken on board the Sanskrit derived “Namaste” as a farewell because it encapsulates the attitude I aspire to, that is to see and honour the other as part of the greater whole, just as I am. How does one bow to the Earth knowing we are part of it yet only here because of it, and seeing everything around us having that same privilege? What knowledge do we need to reach that place of wisdom and reverence?

          Namaste.

          Like

          Reply

          1. That is a very nice way of seeing things.

            You are right when you say that my views revolve around us humans being at the center of everything that exists. The wonderful things that we have accomplished are wonderful to us but mean absolutely nothing to other species around us and probably harm them in all likelihood. I think the way I feel has more to do with cultural conditioning more than anything else. The fact that I am still in my early 30s biases me in wanting to have something to look forward to.

            You are right when you say we are about to get a taste of what other civilizations must have experienced when everything that they built crumbled right in front of their eyes.

            I have wondered why and how we got here. I think technology is a function of two things the first one is the problem you wish to solve and the second is the resources available to you(specifically energy). We took this unsustainable path because we had practically an infinite amount of energy available to us. Lets take building a house for instance- Using cement is not only unsustainable but also not very good in terms of longevity. On the other hand rammed earth houses can stand for hundreds of years and is also sustainable but requires skilled labor. We simply applied brute force to all the problems we faced because we had fossil fuels to provide that force. So once we set off on the wrong direction every step we take takes us further and further away from what is sustainable. I think we have taken the wrong direction in every possible area.

            I guess my frustration is from the fact that I feel betrayed. Up until just a few years ago I wanted to have a kid and live a “normal” life. I was a believer in technology and thought that we have great things to look forward to. Now I know that any kid born today will only have 20-30 years at the very best before things begin to unravel.

            I also think that Buddha was right in cutting all attachments to material world as none of it is permanent but the social conditioning is something that is hard to fight.

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

            1. Hello again Kira,

              Namaste. Thank you so much for your reply. The way you express your thoughts and feelings allows me to see and empathise with you and I am humbled for that. You have a courage to face what cannot be denied with honesty and an open heart even though it is a painful truth. I know we can be mature in thought at any age but you certainly have cultivated much wisdom in the 30 some years you have been around the sun, and I trust much joy also.

              I am 53 and my husband and I chose not to have any children, even before waking up to our plight. I feel that I have already lived a complete life and every day is a bonus now, but that is because I am in a different life stage than you. I have commented here as of late of a deep grief that I carry now that I have also consigned to acceptance of our self-determined fate. That sadness is for everything you are facing and at the helplessness I feel to provide anything less than understanding for the younger generations. Their frustration and anxiety for the future is the bitter pill that we all must swallow. I am sorry. There is nothing fair nor promised in this world but if I could adjust the balance for those who should be envisioning a brighter future, I would offer my life.

              I am offering my life in the only way I know how, perhaps the little wisdom I’ve gained through experience may be of some encouragement to you. I now view each and every day as a complete life in itself, with upon waking as a birth of sorts and going to sleep the final ending. After all, there are many insects with this time scale. And in the hours I have, I try to just live with the fullest intention as if each task or thought or interaction is the first and last, to draw forth as much as possible the newness and awe of everything as well as the familiarity and steadiness. It is like being at once as a child and an elder, with time seemingly both limitless and limited. For me, I find a need in each day to share kindness and compassion, whether in thought or deed, and this may be directed to any living thing in my circle of attention. At the end of the day, if I can do a review and say honestly that if this were my last day on earth I would be at peace, then I know I have lived a full life in the space of that day. Of course I do not manage this daily, not even close! but even if one day now and again shines forth so brightly as to stun my being into bliss, then I could think this is what a good life means and I have lived so. I have found that I can be my highest vision of myself no matter the outer circumstance and perhaps even because of it. I don’t know if I’m making any sense at all, but I just hope that you will see this as another way to know that life, no matter how long and in whatever circumstance we are given, is a miracle and worth all the striving. But you already know that and I am very inspired to know how passionate you are to live your self-examined and directed life.

              I wish you all the best in your journey. Namaste.

              Like

              Reply

              1. Thank you for your kind and beautiful words.

                I admit that at first it was very difficult and lonely but now thanks to communities like this one and reading comments from people like yourself I feel much better and have devoted myself to doing what little I can for everyone and everything around me. It may be utterly futile and pointless in the long run and grand scheme of things but it brings me immense joy . I have come to see all living things in the biosphere as my family and all species as my siblings.
                I am really grateful for sites like this since it has allowed me to interact with people such as yourself so a special thanks to Rob for making it possible.

                I wish you all the best and hope that your journey is as beautiful and kind as your words.
                Namaste.

                Liked by 1 person

                Reply

                1. Hello Kira,

                  In my highest vision of the world I want to be in, your joys are mine and your sorrows also. I am honoured to meet you through this channel which has been a beacon of light in the stormy seas for me, also. I would like to say that nothing you do is futile, especially when done with intention and love which I know is how you are living your life. Just knowing that you are filled with wonder and gratitude for life and have found a deep peace has brought me much encouragement and strength to continue to do my best in my circle, too.

                  I take it as a little sign from the universe that just the same day I read your heartfelt reply I came across this quote from Dostoyevsky which I know you will also appreciate.

                  “Love every leaf… Love the animals, love the plants, love everything. If you love everything, you will perceive the divine mystery in things. Once you have perceived it, you will begin to comprehend it better every day, and you will come at last to love the world with an all-embracing love. ”

                  This for me is the way I want to go forward in the time we have and in the world we are in. It’s so lovely to have fellow travellers sharing the path.

                  All the best to you and your family.

                  Namaste.

                  Like

                  Reply

            2. “We simply applied brute force to all the problems we faced because we had fossil fuels to provide that force.”
              I find this to be so true. By the way, isn’t this an example of MPP? Aren’t we like a flowing river: collectively going along the path of least resistance. We solve problems the easiest way possible to get an edge. This will change, once easiest becomes harder and the path of least resistance proves to be different.

              Yes, “betrayed” is the word. I felt the same way for a very long time.
              But, were we really betrayed, when the messages came from a system believing its own lies down to the core of its identity (in other words, misconception about reality, denial)?
              I now frame it for myself differently: our culture is at odds with reality. This was not a problem as long as it worked (was a reasonable approximation), but with everything crumbling around, it is becoming increasingly obvious for many. However, we feel at loss, because we do not have built a map (yet) to positively navigate the changing world (we do not understand it, do not know who we want to be, where we want to go). In a way, it’s also a time of great opportunities/freedom, because we get to define this (even though still in consistency with reality: it must work)
              Once our old beliefs are stretched beyond their limits, we will probably adopt/revisit other myths rather than go on carrying the old ones. The birth of a new world. (Even a very brutal one, won’t seem so, once we are immersed in the new codes)

              Like

              Reply

      2. Well.
        This comment may anger some 🙂

        I don’t really care about the loss of knowledge, any more.
        I do not subscribe to the myth of progress any more (or the myth of sustainability, for that matter, since it is still a desire of progress from the current state).
        I view accumulation of knowledge as a tunnel which gets increasingly narrow as it is carved in the immensity of reality.
        At some point, we have to forget some things or else we trap ourselves.
        Aren’t there many ancient crafts we aren’t able to reproduce today?
        Aren’t there so many knowledges we aren’t even aware of, because too subtle or estranged from our daily experience?

        I heard somewhere we were a species with amnesia.
        I read somewhere no scientist understands a blade of grass better than the cow which eats it.

        Lately I came to value the call of the heart higher than the call of the mind.
        The latter solves problems.
        The former does not feel there truly are any problems.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. That’s very lovely, Charles. I agree that there are so many ancient crafts we don’t even know we’ve lost. I saw a book once written in the early 1800s by scientists and agronomists visiting China with its amazing fertility and ability to feed so many by natural, organic means – one thing stuck in my mind was that they had over 150 ways of cutting and storing wood, this knowledge built up over centuries – all gone in the blink of an eye.⁸

          I think that Dostoyevsky quote from Gaia Gardener ““Love every leaf… Love the animals, love the plants, love everything” is the way forward, to learn how to love the earth again and be a part of it – or what’s left of it when we are done destroying it. Once all the obscene wealth discrepancy is behind us we may find richness again in social cohesion and simple joys and pleasures and in working in groups together with the cult of the individual discarded forever.

          We tend to catastrophise so much, but as Tom says, if we don’t go extinct, most days will not be filled with anxiety and fear – eventually that is.
          I’m Diana – apparently I have another WordPress identity, my initials, Drt, which seems quite apt as my life revolves around soil – another source of love and wonder that we really know so relatively little about, and which of course is also disappearing frighteningly fast.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

          1. Thank you.

            Yes, eventually. That “eventually” is all that matters to me. So much so that I have been, from the start, trying to garden without irrigation, without tillage, without power-tools. It takes some time for soil (at least the ones I have experimented with) to change dynamic: to go from inert, passively-aggressive, exhausted, life-less, human dependent to buzzing, strong, independent, joyous, giving, thriving. Where I am, when there is no rain for 4 consecutive months, or more, on very heavy clay soil, water is the limiting factor. But still, I believe roots and beetles (and lots of other critters) are ultimately able to create a kind of deep “mesh” (I am unsure that’s the right word, maybe matrix?) able to store all of the winter heavy rains. Then soil protection (shading, covering, tree layering) does the rest.

            Please go on doing what you do 🙂 Even if you fear your kids may sell the property, which, even though I don’t know their situation, I am unsure of: in my country things are very rapidly evolving and a lot more people intuitively feel we are going for hardships. Many start to understand the value of food and feel the energy price rises.

            And thanks for specifying you were Diana. I am done interacting with artificial intelligence, or so I hope 😉

            Like

            Reply

  39. Today’s roundup of climate news by Panopticon is worth a scan. Extreme weather everywhere on the globe. The burning of Lahaina Maui is a minor event and didn’t make it to the front page.

    Several headlines jumped out at me:

    “On Tuesday, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) confirmed the average global temperature for July 2023 was the highest on record for any month.”

    “Rice prices in Asia rose to the highest since 2008 on mounting concerns over global supplies of the food staple as dry weather threatens output in Thailand and after top shipper India banned some exports.”

    “…the price of olive oil has surged to an all-time high, double a year ago…”

    https://climateandeconomy.com/2023/08/10/10th-august-2023-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/

    Like

    Reply

    1. I’m not on Twitter but having a quick browse of Tim Garretts feed it would almost be worth joining for that alone. Smart guy who tells it how it is.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Garrett is a climate scientist that has worked out the mathematical relationship between energy and the economy which is central to understanding what’s going on.

        All the other thousands of climate scientists ignore his profound theory which means pretty much every climate scientist in the world is in denial.

        Like

        Reply

  42. Simple, low cost, low energy, one pot, healthy recipe created by me.

    Oats & Eggs

    Bring to boil 1 1/4c water with pinch salt.

    Add:
    – 1/2c organic steel cut oats
    – handful raisins
    – 2 or 3 eggs

    Cover & simmer 6 minutes. Reduce time if you like your yolks runny.

    Note: The oats need to be fairly thin to ensure the eggs poach nicely.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Do you think this is Low Carb or not? I know the steel cut oats are low on the glycemic index. After 45+ years on a vegetarian diet (I use eggs & cheese) I am considering changing to a Low Carb – High fat/protein (animal) diet because of an increase in what looks to be pre-diabetes. (I’m 70 and was/am an avid runner/bike rider with a lowish BMI). I am rereading Malcom Kendrick’s book, and am concerned that all those years as a vegetarian (with lots of carbs (simple and complex) may not have been good for me.
      AJ

      Like

      Reply

      1. Oats are, in my opinion, one of the carbohydrate superfoods. They are high in fiber, slow to digest, and have an excellent track record for people trying to reduce heart disease markers. The old timers knew about oats. My Polish father forced me to eat oatmeal every morning for breakfast as a child. My body today tells me it likes them very much with a long period of satiation after a meal, and regularity. They are cheap, have an excellent shelf life, and the steel cut version has a pleasing chewy texture. Make sure you buy organic because farmers use glyphosate for desiccation before harvest. I like Bob’s Red Mill steel cut organic oats sold by Costco. Great price and this version of steel cut only takes 6 minutes to cook versus much longer for other steel cut brands.

        Eggs are of course another cheap fat/protein superfood for obvious reasons. Combine the two, with a few raisins for sweetness so there’s no need to add milk or sugar, and you have great meal.

        Perhaps other cooks here might have some ideas other than raisins for dressing this dish up?

        Like

        Reply

        1. I’m glad to hear you’re lapping up the steel cut oats, Rob! It’s so interesting to me how there are so many different body responses to foods but that seems very logical since our genetic make-ups vary and now that we know how much of us is actually bacteria, we should really be asking them what they like to eat! Mine happen to love fruit, beans, grains, and veggies–basically I have never met a carb I didn’t like (or doesn’t like me)!

          Your simple recipe sounds like comfort food at its best. If you want to change the flavours, try adding some curry powder and use some coconut milk in place of some of the water (up to you how creamy you like it). Also, I found steel cuts oats are very nice with a splash of tamari, toasted black sesame oil, and vinegar, actually all grains seem to be dressed up and ready to go with this combo. Some grated carrot and/or beetroot wouldn’t go astray either.

          Now I’m hungry thinking about all this yummy food. Have you already been introduced to millet and buckwheat? They make a great porridge, too.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Great ideas, I’ll try them. Thanks.

            I have not tried millet and buckwheat. I try to stock my pantry only with commonly available items from local stores on the assumption that specialty items will be the first to disappear when SHTF.

            Like

            Reply

            1. Funny we consider millet and buckwheat to be specialty items, at least for us in the West! They are common staples in Asia and Russia of course. But still grown with fossil fuels so all will go when the SHTF even more (it’s getting pretty pungent out there!)

              I believe in the future of tubers, like the humble potato. As in the days of the hunting and gathering, the tuber will rise again to be a main foodstuff of us hairless, tailless monkeys. Tubers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your skins!

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

              1. I’m on the tuber mission too Gaia. Potato, yacon, jerusalem artichoke, kūmara (sweet potato), arrowroot, ginger, tumeric all going well here. I never could find that parsnip? you mentioned previously. Doesn’t seem to be available here in NZ.

                Like

                Reply

                1. You rock, Campbell! The tuber I raved about before is Peruvian parsnip or Arracacha, keep looking, it’s that good and the leaves are also edible, a bit like celery. There’s another tuber from South America that sounds promising called Mauka, supposed to taste like a combo of potato and cabbage! The one plant I have growing seems to have died or gone dormant, however. How about taro and cassava, they should take off in your climate, too. I grow the taro in largish tubs to keep them constantly wet, they seem to like it and it keeps other weeds out. Do you have dioscorea species growing, the true yams. Some of those tubers can be 5kg each! And don’t forget the NZ specialty the oca, I’ve always thought they look like giant pink and yellow grubs! I am also a big fan of Chayote (we call them chokos here probably because a healthy vine is so vigorous that it chokes everything else out!) which actually taste best when they are very young about egg sized, then you can eat them skin and all, raw or cooked. Would you know that their tubers are also edible and very nice indeed. And I like green bananas as a starch, too. I boil (or pressure cook) them with their skins on (making a slit down the banana so it’s easier to peel later) and cook them until just soft then I peel and cut them in half to finish them off in the oven which crisps them up on the outside, delicious like roasted potato wedges!

                  If you’re interested, I have a pdf of an out of print book called Lost Crops of the Incas which covers a range of tubers and many other edibles which would suit your subtropical climate. The book gives a lot of detail on growing and usage of the plants and is a very interesting read in its own right, so much of our food has arisen from South America, the potato’s ancestral home. The only issue is finding the plants, but there must be some enthusiast in NZ who has imported some in. I think this would be a very important endeavour given our food security issues. Maybe it could even be you and your family some day! I think I would also be very happy to spread the tribe of the tuber, we’ll see how these next few years go. Anyway, if you’d like a copy I can attach it to Rob and he can pass it onto your email. Ditto for anyone else interested, of course.

                  All the best to you and your family and community there.
                  Namaste.

                  Like

                  Reply

                  2. More great tips and plants to try to track down thanks Gaia.

                    We do have a lot taro growing wild on our land in and beside a wee stream about 50 metres below our house. I have used it in our food forest plantings in the damper areas. We have Tongan cousins who have promised to show us some different ways to cook tubers and leaves next time they visit.

                    I would love a copy of the book you have. My email address is first name dot Sturrock at Gmail dot come 🙂

                    I am also thinking I’d like to grow dahlias of the edible variety and enjoy the flowers too. Have you tried dahlia tubers?
                    https://www.cultivariable.com/instructions/root-crops/how-to-grow-edible-dahlias/#perennial

                    Nikki has spent the last couple of days preparing a large sloping paddock for another food forest planting. Terraces and swales on contour. Perhaps a half acre of planting area. Trying to use the last of our fossil fuel budget (if we have any left?) to create more food producing easily accessible land.

                    We have a busy planting week coming up. And we were lucky to get around 40 m3 of arborist mulch dropped off by a contractor clearing roadside trees about 3km away. It will be very useful covering the exposed soil as we plant and holding in the moisture through what we are expecting to be a hot dry summer.

                    Namaste to you.

                    Liked by 1 person

                    Reply

      2. AJ I would highly recommend low carb diet and intermittent fasting. By that I refer to not eating anything for at least 12hrs a day. It will help reset your insulin sensitivity. If you can manage it, a 3 day water only fast (black teas and coffee allowed + electrolytes) will help enormously but they are difficult for most people.

        Like

        Reply

      3. My daughter turned vegetarian and happily kept at it for 6 years. However, she was frequently ill and attributed it to vegetarianism. She then returned to an omnivorous diet and her health markedly improved. Lierre Keith also had a similar experience, though she left it too long to return to an omnivorous diet (see her book, “The Vegetarian Myth”).

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

      4. Hello AJ,
        as nikoB already said, fasting can be very helpful.
        The mechanisms of how and why are well explained in this video, which I already recommended on un-denial a few months ago – I gladly share it once more:

        Like

        Reply

  43. On another note. More and more commentators who are aware that Ukraine has lost the war and that Russia has won (unbeknownst to our leaders) are afraid that we are approaching a final showdown that the West will lose decisively and may if they find themselves in that situation resort to Nuclear War. Russia has put up with the hubris of Washington which has interpreted it’s restraint as weakness and is probably nearing the point where they will take the chance of escalation to put the West in it’s place. How Biden (Obama/Clinton and the Deep State) responds is ?
    Worth the read:https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/last-stop-before-willoughby

    AJ

    Like

    Reply

    1. Good article but he makes a lot of bold claims without explaining why they are true. Not saying he’s wrong, just that didn’t he make a good case.

      For me the key points are that Russia has retained industrial capacity whereas the US has outsourced a lot to China. Also Russia is more willing to endure pain and suffering as demonstrated by Stalingrad in WWII and Ukraine today.

      The US has had an easy ride since WWII, yet has not achieved a single clear victory. It’s much easier to bomb the hell out of some Afghan peasants with rifles than fighting an industrial force like Russia defending it’s motherland with air power, high tech defenses, and a lot of artillery ammo.

      They’ve been able to hide the fact that mRNA killed more that it saved. It’s going to be much harder to hide a victory by Russia against the second largest military in Europe funded and armed by NATO.

      I’m very curious and quite worried about how our idiot western leaders will react.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  44. Kyle Bass is a smart financial guy I used to follow. Don’t see as much of him these days, perhaps because his predictions that China would collapse from too much debt never came true. Also don’t care for his politics: US good – Russia/China bad, but he often spots things others have missed.

    In this must watch talk from a month ago he makes a compelling case that China is preparing to invade Taiwan and to weather any response by the US. He also speculates that covid was deliberately released by the Chinese to halt an economic crisis and social unrest in Hong Kong.

    h/t to OFW commenter

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. “China has 20% of the world’s population and they are hoarding 70% of the world’s grain.”

      “China has enough stockpiled wheat to meet demand for 18 months”.

      “ICBM missile silos have increased from 100 in 2020 to 450 in 2022.”

      Like

      Reply

    2. Very compelling and not too surprising to many of us here. What is still surprising (at least to me) is the sheer arrogance of the attitude sported by the presenter that the West (namely the US) is in any form of control in the event China decides to invade Taiwan. During the Q&A he states that the US should move to economically cripple China in advance by just shutting them out of the SWIFT banking system, claiming “they would be down in one month”. Methinks it would be the West who would be on their knees in a month or less when China stops shipping goods to us especially now they have all their ducks in a row preparing for such a paper tiger financial sanction. With years of grain stored, fuel supplies as best as possible teed up with friends, and old scores to settle ingrained their national psyche, I think the message from all this is “just try us”. The fact that they have increased their ICBM capabilities by such a huge margin is their thrown gauntlet. If China has declared ever since year dot that Taiwan is theirs and the reunification with the Motherland will happen, what part of that can we not understand? Better get ourselves some comfy kneepads now whilst they’re still made in and sent from China.

      Like

      Reply

      1. All good points. I also note China is stockpiling oil and the US draining their strategic petroleum reserve.

        I do not understand the brains of US hawks. If Texas decided to leave the union and align with Russia, what do they think would happen?

        Like

        Reply

      1. If there is a war in Taiwan I would expect shortages of chips. If China wins, it will be interesting to see if the US decides to bomb the chip factories. These factories are among the most complex and expensive things ever built by humans.

        My masters thesis was on custom integrated circuit design. My career specialty was real-time operating system design, although I spent the majority of it managing large R&D teams.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Everyone’s comments on China were pretty close to what I thought. I have never truly trusted the chairman. I really take issue with the Kyle’s characterization of anyone who is not on the US side as evil or illogical. Putin has been nothing but logical when faced with the duplicitous nature of the western hegemony. I also think that his characterization of the US military as the preeminent force in the world is sadly 1950s thinking not 2023. Russia is vastly superior to us and China is pretty close. How would we feel when a few Chinese hypersonic missiles take out two or three aircraft carriers? I fear for the future and the stupidity of our leaders.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

    1. Interesting.
      Tim Garrett relationship between energy consumption and integral of GDP over time, comes to mind.
      It seems to me, everything will fail everywhere by bits roughly at the same time. Strategic retreat will not be simple (as nobody will want to be left out of modernity).

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  48. In part 4 of Nate Hagens’ series on “just stop oil” he offers advice on what we should do about overshoot:

    1) Look two steps ahead and plan accordingly.
    2) Simplify first to beat the rush.
    3) Change the incentives (e.g. price oil at its value rather than cost to extract).
    4) Redirect efficiency gains from profits that create growth to building a soft landing zone (e.g. override Jevon’s paradox).
    5) Philanthropic and environmental organizations/individuals with financial reserves should spend them now before they vaporize.
    6) Change our minds to redefine what makes us happy.
    7) Do something meaningful (time or money) to protect the natural world.
    8) Shift from personal prepping to helping your local community.
    9) Widen your identity from focusing on single issues.
    10) Spread awareness of overshoot.

    No mention of confronting genetic reality denial or promoting population reduction policies.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. 5) Philanthropic and environmental organizations/individuals with financial reserves should spend them now before they vaporize.
      * Your pension / Social Security
      * Your net worth
      * Sovereign wealth funds
      * University endowments
      * Philanthropic foundation “reserves”
      These are all claims on future energy production. It would be nice if Nate Hagens (and everyone else) could acknowledge that all of the above are entirely “fiat”, if they have value it is only because of “beliefs”.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

        1. Reminds me of Jeremy Irons in the movie Margin Call “There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first; be smarter; or cheat.”
          The “good guys” is plural.
          P and E organizations/individuals – is definitively plural.
          Nate is suggesting a rush to the exit and “be first”. If the Gates Foundation attempted to follow Nate’s suggestion, how quickly would “word get out”? Are the actions not self-fulfilling?

          Like

          Reply

            1. Maybe not denial. Nate has to be seen to be useful and productive, but not rocking the boat. Overzealous tempering produces tepid results.

              Consider the following:

              — Every month, circa 150 million people in the USA pump money into pensions. No new stock is being issued, this puts massive constant upward pressure on stock prices.
              — At the same time, money is subject to ongoing and considerable inflation. This is another constant upward pressure on stock prices.
              — Annual performance reviews seek regular productivity improvements, innovations, etc. Making companies more valuable.

              Stocks (pensions) should see consistent increases in price. But they don’t. We are collapsing.

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

    1. Here’s a random thing for you, I find both Nates make excellent background noise while I’m working (The Great Simplification and Canadian Prepper).

      Like

      Reply

      1. I’m sure there are people here who follow Keith, the Canadian engineer with his permaculture forest. His videos are spot on – concise, no holds barred.

        He’s also done a more detailed/elaborate one on collapse but I find the one above more concise for some reason

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  53. I want to express my deep appreciation for sharing your profound insights and perspective. Your thoughts resonate deeply, and it’s refreshing to see someone addressing the mental captivity that often constrains us in the industrialized world. Your call for breaking free from the illusion of control and division is incredibly relevant, especially as we face urgent challenges like the growing environmental crisis.

    Your vision of shifting course towards a more harmonious relationship with the planet is both inspiring and practical. The idea of fostering generosity towards our environment and allowing nature to flourish resonates with the ancient wisdom of interconnectedness. Your emphasis on co-dependence and nurturing life in all its forms is a powerful testament to the true essence of love.

    It’s heartening to read about the path you’ve chosen for yourself, one that prioritizes the well-being of our planet and its inhabitants. Your proposition for mutually assured survival is a profound shift in mindset that could potentially pave the way for a more sustainable and harmonious future.

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts, for inviting us to join in this important dialogue, and for encouraging us to envision a brighter tomorrow. Your words have certainly left a positive impact and sparked contemplation about our own visions, hopes, and contributions to the world. Keep embracing this journey of transformation, and may your dedication inspire more people to take meaningful steps towards positive change.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. Thank you for your appreciation. I feel honoured.
      Note that I have no illusion we live difficult times: we may also have to revere the gods of destruction (it may be a necessary step before renewal, purification and freedom from old ossified systems)

      For me, breaking free from the modern world mental captivity (without falling into another type) took time. I hope it goes faster for the next generation. Accelerating circumstances will maybe do the trick. I myself have seen with my own eyes, during the covid episode, that apathetically and blindly listening to authority brings no good. We must get our spiritual cores back. That which make us firmly alive and not just cogs in the machine. Now that I got to feel what’s right, I have no choice, it’s simple. Before that I was numb, lost in the mental labyrinth of endless rationalization and argumentation, prey to the false promises of the system, without real purpose, unable to see the numerous rooms for possibilities to break free.

      One reason I appreciate Rob’s blog, aside from the well-versed and civil commentators, is that by addressing denial, it is making the link between inner brain mechanisms, beliefs, individual behaviours, and the resulting collective impacts on the world.
      In my case in particular, I have discovered at least three distinct mental stances (I apologize to some for using, yet again poetic religious language to explain this, it could totally be described more programmatically. The translation into scientific language is left as an exercise to these readers ;):
      – modern myth of rationality/consumer mindset: set a goal according to some idea of what is right/desirable, apply scientifically proven recipes and expect to get there/be rewarded/be satisfied
      – Bhagavad Gita privilege of action without any entitlement for the result (Chapter 2, Verse 47)
      – Biblical faith (labeled fatalism by the believers of rationality) trust the higher power will provide (Matthew 6:25-33), as long as we seek righteousness (that’s where resides all the complication, at least for the mind).

      I recognize the tree by its fruit: following the first mindset was hell for me. Either I would achieve my goal, but not really be satisfied for long. (A new desire sets in. Worse, I was partly running after manufactured desires which were not mine) Or I would fail and feel bound to try harder. The net result is a life of labour and constant worry for the future. (In a way fascination with collapse can turn that way too)
      These days I navigate from mindset 2 to 3.

      I’d like to end with a quote from chapter “Simply Serve Nature and All Is Well” of Masanobu Fukuoka’s book “The One Straw Revolution” : “The world exists in such a way that if people will set aside their human will and be guided instead by nature there is no reason to expect to starve. ” (https://archive.org/details/The-One-Straw-Revolution/page/n97/mode/2up)
      That is my belief and increasingly my experience.

      Like

      Reply

    2. I am unusual because sometimes I don’t just read a post looking for the (often obvious) intended message. With Rob and occasionally others I will sometimes see completely unnecessary anthropomorphizing – usually I can resist the urge to post my jaded and cynical screed.

      Looking at the post above – I see sentence, paragraph, vocabulary, grammar and message that all look “too clean”. So I pasted a copy into https://copyleaks.com

      The results : “AI content detected”. 95% certainty.

      No doubt, someone somewhere got a little Dupers-Delight. I hope they choke to death.

      Like

      Reply

        1. Strictly speaking its not just animals “To ascribe human characteristics to things not human”.
          Here are a couple of yours from above.
          “evolution discovered denial”
          “the goal of the universe”
          Typically it is not important, since there is little (if any) detraction from the message and often it can indeed help convey the message.

          The duping above irked me. We live in a profoundly sick society. Phising / Vishing / Duping / Conning / et al.

          Like

          Reply

      2. I had a closer look at the Prateek post. It’s the first from that source and its email confirms it’s spam. Normally WordPress catches many of those every day but for some reason missed that one, as did I because I was away camping.

        Like

        Reply

        1. By getting through, it can serve as an example to you, Charles, Monk and others – that deception is everywhere and utterly convincing. A shorter post would have fooled me. The gushing was excessive in both duration and amplitude.

          Anything more would have been “I want to have your babies”.

          Like

          Reply

      3. You are right. When I first read it, I thought it was an advertisement. Also, it was the first time for me seeing this poster. But then, I thought the text comment was legitimate since it was referencing my initial post in a logical, structured and gradual way. I was duped. But it is sad wasting energy interacting with machines. To me, comments on this site have value, as long as they propagate viewpoints from human to human.
        Thank you very much for spotting this and telling. It helps me be more careful. Although, it’s incredible what AI can do. And the only efficient response, might be to stop network interactions.
        I wonder what the purpose of this kind of automatic comments and cost/benefit ratio is.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Frankly, the level of (available) sophistication is now terrifying. Someone could phone a loved-one and record it. A long enough recording can be used to train a computer system to mimic the voice. Add a little social engineering (or Facebook) to determine when the loved-one is away from home (preferably on vacation) and then the “help me, I’ve been arrested / been in an accident / etc.” phone calls to mother / father / husband / wife / grand parents start.

          Some people will see the dupe, some will not. The podcast Darknet Diaries has some free episodes that are both entertaining and informative – I particularly liked the mother that helped her son ‘penetration test’ a prison. She was retired, white and female and had a background in catering. She posed as a kitchen / food storage inspector, walked right in and duped everyone.

          EP 67: The Big House
          https://darknetdiaries.com/episode/67/

          I consider myself an expert in computing and cyber security – the need for due diligence constantly goes up, the ability to do it goes down.

          I equate privacy with security, so everything from Michael Bazzell (Intel Techniques / Extreme Privacy) is good. He also has podcasts.

          https://inteltechniques.com/podcast.html

          Joseph Tainter’s – The Collapse of Complex Societies, is here.

          Like

          Reply

          1. I also like Darknet Diaries.

            I have listened to Steve Gibson on security for 10+ years but have never heard of Bazzell. Thanks for the tip, I added him to my podcast player.

            I recently read up on the pros and cons of Signal vs. Telegram. I used Signal but the majority of security conscious people seem to prefer Telegram. Do you have a preference?

            Like

            Reply

            1. I use Telegram on a rooted Android, but don’t like that the phone number is the ‘price’ of admission. It was the ease of setting up automation that tipped the balance for me. Signal is equally good.

              Like

              Reply

    1. Thank you so much Anon for sharing that link. That paper said everything there is to say (except I think Rob would add here that MORT should have been invoked) most cogently. Dr Rees laid out all the evidence and presented an airtight argument and indictment of our self-induced fate, to be enacted in full in due course. I am getting to the stage of acceptance where I almost can feel a sense of relief and consolation that the verdict is so conclusive by any and all measures of scrutiny so I can actually move on with what I can do, in the time I have remaining, including squeezing joy and gratitude from every day.

      Wishing you and your family peace and comfort to see you through.

      Namaste.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      1. Gaia, you know me well. I read the paper and thought it was very good except Rees has no understanding of MORT’s central role. He does discuss denial but does not explain what we observe.

        Like

        Reply

    2. Very good. Only a couple of quibbles. I don’t know if I read it wrongly, but a surprising opening by Bill Rees, especially after that recent round table with Nate Hagens, Rex Wyler, et al. “Homo sapiens has evolved to reproduce exponentially, expand geographically, and consume all available resources.” No species evolves to do any of those things, though any of those things may be a consequence of the abilities they evolved. As discussed on that round table, humans are a species. There is no goal of evolution, it’s just what happens.

      That opening is surprising considering that, a little later, he goes on to say:

      … three innate abilities/predispositions that humans share with all other species. Unless constrained by negative feedback, populations of H. sapiens (1) are capable of exponential (geometric) growth, (2) tend to consume all available resources …, and (3) will expand to occupy all accessible suitable habitats.

      This is further, properly, reinforced by

      The evidence is compelling that human exceptionalism is a deeply-flawed construct—a grand cultural illusion—that has led MTI societies into a potentially fatal ecological trap. While culture contributes unique dimensions to humanity’s evolutionary trajectory, this does not exempt humans from the same fundamental principles governing the evolution of non-human lifeforms.

      In terms of population, he doesn’t even hint at reducing birth rate but frequently mentions negative feedbacks which tend to limit a species’ population, which is what I think is the likely response of nature to overpopulation. The death rate will increase to rein in population numbers.

      In the introduction, he implies that it’s possible for a humans “to override innate human behaviours,” but that is as close as he gets to adding the usual dose of hopium.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  55. Steve Bull who writes well about overshoot and collapse has put together a collection of writings and presentations on our predicament from people he respects. I am pleased to see Rob’s Un-Denial Manifesto included along with articles from the likes of Bill Rees and Alice Friedemann.

    https://olduvai.ca/?page_id=65433

    Rob your manifesto and What would a wise society do? pages are my favourite and the ones I’ve shared in my circles most often. I wonder if you make any changes or additions to the Wise society post now given it’s a few years since you wrote it? Personally I think all the actions remain wise and relevant.

    Cheers and I hope your camping trip was a memorable one.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Thanks for posting this Campbell.

      I’m grateful that Steve included my essay in his compilation.

      Your two favorite un-Denial posts are also my favorites.

      I also have a fondness for the world’s longest single sentence about overshoot:

      On Burning Carbon: The Case for Renaming GDP to GDB

      And the un-Denial decision tree that explains where MORT awareness fits into the space of possible responses to overshoot:

      The un-Denial Decision Tree

      I re-read the “What would a wise society do?” post that I wrote 7 years ago and it seems to have held up fairly well despite me knowing a lot more now about overshoot than I did then. Nothing major jumped out at me as being wrong or missing.

      The essay is an important rebuttal to anyone that claims there is nothing we can or should do about overshoot.

      I’m curious if anyone can spot any errors or omissions? If you have any ideas for improving the essay let me know as I’d be pleased to incorporate them and re-issue an update.

      What would a wise society do?

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. That “wise” commentary seems great … if some kind of modern society is retrievable. I can’t see how that is possible. Wouldn’t a wise society realise that any society even vaguely resembling the one we have is not sustainable? Wouldn’t a wise society figure out was is possible and sustainable, then try to move to that? Population needs to decline, certainly, but unsustainable behaviour also needs to go. After years of thinking about this, I still can’t see how that is possible without a primitive existence.

        [Gosh, the comment facility seems to have changed. This may be the first cleanly processed comment I’ve left in years. Pressing Reply now.]

        Like

        Reply

          1. I’m not seeing any problems with Edge on Windows 10/11 and Android. I could try a little digging with WordPress support & user forums if I had more information about the problem you experience and your configuration.

            For example:
            – any other problems besides being logged out?
            – Windows/Apple/Linux?
            – browser?
            – cookies enabled?
            – uncommon browser settings?
            – frequently changing IP?
            – VPN?
            – do you run a cleaning utility to wipe cookies?

            Like

            Reply

            1. I haven’t had many issues other than having to log in every time I press the Reply button after composing the comment, even though the comment box claims I’m logged in. Occasionally, something else has gone wrong but not consistently. I’m on Windows, using Firefox, have cookies enabled and with no odd browser settings. I do use a VPN but had the same problem before I started using it. I guess the IP might change every time I connect to the VPN but this happens multiple times. No frequent cookie cleaning.

              Like

              Reply

              1. Thanks. I do not know what is causing your problem. One idea. Go to the main WordPress site, logout, then login and look for an option on the login form to stay logged in (often called “remember this computer”).

                Like

                Reply

      2. Welcome back Rob,
        Just a thought, I’ll try to express clearly.
        So, we got denial of reality to balance existential anxiety stemming from our ability to build models of the world in our minds. But this combination has resulted in an imbalance with planetary equilibrium. Now we get a mass extinction.
        Aren’t they only 4 possible outcomes (mixes are possible):
        – the species disappears, and its capacity for fantasy with it, the planet recovers,
        – the environment evolves around this new species and constrains it so that new equilibrium are regained, maybe the capacity for fantasy propagates to other species,
        – partly under new evolutionary constrains (but maybe not only), the species matures and somehow reins itself in while driving planetary recovery,
        – life sustaining equilibrium diverges and the planet dies.
        I’d like to be play 3.

        Like

        Reply

        1. A deep comment Charles. Very hard to respond in a few words.

          I think your understanding of MORT is still a little rough around the edges. All animals with brains build models. That’s what brains do.

          Humans are the only species that evolved an extended theory of mind which means (among other things) that we can imagine what another person is thinking and that they are the same as ourselves. With this capability when we observed a tribe member die we understood or own mortality which caused reduced fitness due to depression and drove the need for denial of mortality to co-evolve with an extended theory of mind. The method evolution chose to implement denial of mortality had a side effect that we deny all forms of unpleasant realities.

          The imbalance you speak of results from a super intelligent brain capable of dominating all other life, that is unable see the damage it is doing, because of genetic denial.

          A few comments on your 4 scenarios:
          – I think it unlikely that denial (you call it fantasy) will spread to other species. Elephants, dolphins, and corvids have been unsuccessfully bumping up against the extended theory of mind barrier for millions of years without evolving denial. It seems to be a rare event in the universe, like the eukaryotic cell.
          – Your scenario where humans mature means I think that we somehow evolve away from denying unpleasant realities. Can you imagine a selection pressure that would cause this and at the same time allow us to accept our own mortality without depression?
          – I too hope for #3, but is there any plausible scientific path to get there?

          Like

          Reply

          1. Thank you for clarifying to me the notion that existential dread requires an extended theory of mind and not just the ability to build models. It is rather tricky. Let me rephrase to see if I got it right this time:
            – many species have the ability to build models of the world in their minds,
            – minds in the human species got to the point where they could model the minds hidden behind the surface of other persons,
            – from that came the realisation to the mind modelling, that the mind being modelled had similar properties,
            – since death is witnessed for other persons, the mind is able to infer its own mortality,
            – which creates anxiety, because the mind understand its mortal nature,
            – denial is a protection mechanism which appeared simultaneously in order to alleviate the downside of knowing one’s own death,
            – the concurrent evolution of the two traits makes it an extremely rare occurrence of evolution,
            – denial is generalized to any kind of unpleasant realities,
            – hence, the imbalance.

            What I don’t understand is that pigs are aware they are going to die when being sent to the slaughterhouse. So why don’t they similarly suffer from existential dread? Is it because their minds are only able to fear in the imminence of death, but not during most of their existence? Or maybe, they too are subject to lesser forms of denial?
            Also, why should it be necessary for a mind to be able to finely model another mind in order to understand it is of the same mortal nature? Does it have to be that sophisticated? Don’t all social animals (dolphins, wolves) at least understand the ones they are interacting with are of similar kind than themselves? Don’t many animals (dogs for instance) feel the loss of another being.
            Maybe this can be explained by the fact that (background, constant) existential fear requires to reach some kind of threshold in the brain? (Isn’t this just a bias related to the way we study nature, a form of self-reinforcing human exceptionalism?)

            Wouldn’t it also be possible that existential fear is not required to give rise to this situation at all? Access to denial on its own could confer a species a short time advantage over other species: individuals are able to see and understand the havoc they create when wiping out competition (it requires some kind of blindness to raze a forest and build a road, or exterminate a pack of dolphins…). A faustian bargain, if any and a somewhat grimmer theory 😦
            Would it be possible that the rise of denial is not such a rare event, but rather that it doesn’t leave traces that can easily be observed by scientists? After all there are many things we can’t easily know from the past, as they simply disappear: internal mind mechanisms could be such a thing if it results in behaviour well tuned to the environment. Also since denial on its own, carries fatal downsides, how long should a species acquiring it survive so that we could acknowledge its previous existence?

            Sorry, I am rambling about things which are way out of my league…

            I am unsure it is unlikely for denial to spread to other species. Evolution from scratch was a rare event, but propagation may not be so much. The story of orangutan Chantek is a curious one (https://www.quora.com/Can-animals-have-an-existential-crisis).

            Yes, I can imagine environmental pressure that would make our behaviour to change. But not necessarily eradicate denial from our mind. And I even think there are historical precedents. I see the rise and fall of empires as a kind of oscillating signal of increased amplitude. At one point, the strategy which consists in drawing down stocks (be it oil, trees, fishes, soils, captured slaves, trust in fiat currency…) as fast as possible to wipe out competition to the detriment of the ecosystem is not cost effective any more.
            The pressure results from the fact the species reaches the physical boundaries of the whole planet. At this point, alternative strategies (which basically protect the living assets) fare better. We are already there. To give an extreme example: buying a forest to raze it down, sell the wood and convert the land to agriculture, then exhausting the land to desert only makes sense in a globalized settings as long as there are other stocks to plunder elsewhere to ensure economic value and continuation of the practice. From the desert, any regenerative technique will make more economic sense than leaving the land to its natural process (be it slowly recovering or trapped in the desert phase). There are other reasons which shift the optimal economic point towards more ecologically sound practices: lesser availability of oil, lesser availability of metal, marginal land which prevents the use of machinery, local human resistance, low value of what is left to plunder…
            An historical example may be Tokugawa Japan discussed in Jared Diamond. Not necessarily a pleasant society to our modern eyes, but a relatively sustainable one, by necessity.

            To go beyond existential dread, the mind could just recognize the map is not the territory. And that the notion of “mind”, or “I” (and consequently “mortality”) is a blurry approximation of reality at best, if not yet another delusion. We are too enthralled into our models and forget they are not the world (wouldn’t it take a mind the size of the universe to truly understand the universe). Once this is accepted, exit constant anxiety.
            Or we can build other models, still enough consistent with reality to be of practical use, where the mind identifies with other things, such as “life”, “the whole planet”, “the universe”, “nothingness”, “consciousness”, rather than “my car”, “my manly destructive power”, “my bank asset”, “my power status”, “our progress”, “our supremacy”…
            At this point, we got the software, so a genetic evolution may not even be necessary, just a cultural evolution.
            This will happen, once the external constraints sufficiently favour those that do. It can be gradual, but can not occur before there are places where it makes sense from a competitive point of view (MPP, I would say). Given inertia of the system, I believe this ensures some level of collapse first.

            To me, scenario 4 seems unlikely. Life is tough. This may be denial from me, but, I would give scenario 1, a relatively low probability. The human species is quite versatile. Unless there is a complete shift in the way the planet functions. Even in this case, there could still be pockets of habitability. (Tongue in cheek : I always had a part of me think Elon Musk was investigating technology to live on Mars, not to be used over there, but rather for the not so distant future Earth. The ultimate advanced version of the rich guy bunker). A mix between scenario 2 and 3 seems the most plausible to me (with more of 2 at first and 3 longer term).

            Like

            Reply

  56. Hello everyone, I’m back from 10 lovely days camping on northern Vancouver Island.

    I used this trip to practice minimalist living. After arriving I did not use my vehicle for travel or resupply until I departed 10 days later. I ate healthy foods that did not require a cooler and only minimal use of a small butane stove. I went to bed early before 9 pm when it got dark. At home I’m a 1 am night hawk and the extra sleep made me feel great.

    Books I read on this trip were:
    – Donella Meadows: Thinking in Systems (a classic by an author of the 70’s Limits to Growth study) – highly recommended
    – Shaman: Kim Stanley Robinson (a fictional story of life in a tribe thirty thousand years ago) – not yet finished, good so far

    It’s very nice to see that this little un-Denial community stayed active while I was gone.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Welcome back, Rob! What a paragon of virtue you are! So happy to know you’ve had a wonderful time and came back so invigorated. You probably look and feel 5 years younger at least! I think you should take to the woods at least once a month even for just a couple days away.

      It’s almost too cruel to start back on the doom parade after that respite for body and mind, please take a few days to settle back into things.

      We have missed you for this time but can wait a bit longer!

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Hi Rob,

        It’s Gaia here who tried to welcome you back on behalf of all of us but did something change with this WordPress platform because it wouldn’t let me reply under Gaia gardener, now I am Anonymous, the most ubiquitous contributor of them all!

        Now it tells me I can log in to leave a reply (optional) I never had to log in before and I don’t do Facebook or WordPress.

        I don’t really mind being Anon for a while, you can all probably tell it’s me anyway from my loquaciousness.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Hi Gaia,

          Nice to hear from you. Sorry about the WordPress problems. I’ve changed nothing.

          I confirmed I have it set so that you do not require a WordPress account or to be logged in to comment.

          I also had it set so that a name and email are not required to comment. Perhaps this is causing the Anonymous problem? I changed this setting to now require a name and email. The email will not be displayed publicly but if you are worried I suspect you can enter any gibberish you want for an email.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Hi Rob,

            Thanks for retroactively unmasking my Anon to my still masked moniker!

            I think I cottoned onto the new format now, we’ll see how this one posts.

            I am interested to know you’re reading Kim Stanley Robinson, have you read other books by him? He is a new author to me and I was recommended his The Years of Rice and Salt which is about an alternate history if 99% of Europe’s population perished with the Black Death. It’s in the queue to be read but even though it’s high fantasy and probably an excellent escape read I am not quite sure more doom and gloom is what I need at the moment! I am getting the picture quite nicely as it is! Your manifesto and the longest overshoot sentence (remember you chided me for my run-on sentences and paragraphs!) were what I cut my doomsphere teeth on, good to have another look, and unfortunately, there’s nothing to change or add because we’re still barrelling down the same path. And thank you for introducing me to Panopticon, it’s my next daily check-in after your blog. It was all the climate news of late, especially the sea temperature readings and extant ice situation that really got me thinking our time is even more compressed than we thought.

            Still, every day is a wonder and ours to live as fully as we choose. I am really glad you’ve been able to do what you love most several times this summer and hope that you will find more chances to be immersed in nature as the weather starts to cool. When you are amongst the trees and rocks and rivers you are truly declaring that you are an Earthling and honouring your being part of the biosphere. This is our privilege of bearing witness to what is unfolding and partake in both the joy and sorrows because that is our due.

            Namaste, friend.

            Like

            Reply

            1. Shaman is the first book by Robinson I’ve read. I’m the wrong person to provide tips on good fiction books because I read so few. Perhaps someone else here can jump in with some good tips.

              LOL, I thought about you when I re-read that longest sentence essay. Long paragraphs break my brain.

              Panopticon and the now deceased Gail Zawacki are the two people that encouraged me to start this blog. I was going to write anonymously but they pressured me to use my real name.

              Then when Panopticon started his site he used a pseudonym because he was worried about what the neighbors would think in his small community. What a hypocrit!

              Like

              Reply

  59. Thanks, Rob. But the login dialog that pops up when I reply has the stay logged in option which I always select, though it makes no difference. As I say, wordpress thinks I’m already logged in but still asks me to log in when I press the reply button after composing a comment. Oddly enough, even after I logged out, the comment box thinks I’m logged in. I’m going to delete all of the cookies for WordPress and Un-denial, to see if that helps. Here goes.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Woo-hoo! That worked. I ensured I was logged out on WordPress, then deleted all cookies, then logged back in on un-denial and put up the comment. It went straight through without having to log in again. Fingers crossed that that is the end of the woes. Thanks for the hints.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  60. I went to university, worked, and lived in the Vancouver city area for 35 years. Then 10 years ago I moved to a smaller town on Vancouver Island and have rarely returned to Vancouver.

    Today I spent all day walking around downtown Vancouver and observing the city with my overshoot aware eyes. I saw unaffordable prices for amusements (art gallery $30, aquarium $50) and crazy prices for food ($15 hotdog).

    There are many small stores in the city and I did not see a single one that sold items that will be of use in a post-collapse world. Almost everyone sells items that are 100% discretionary with little real value like fashion, jewelry, cosmetics, and knickknacks.

    The majority of people will have to find a new way of making a living.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

      1. You’re probably already used to high prices. I visited Germany once and remember everything was more expensive than here. I think I paid 1 euro for a cup of coffee!! It was about 1990 🙂 .
        Tell your son he can call me if he needs help with anything.

        Like

        Reply

  61. In case you don’t know him, Dr. Richard Nolthenius is pretty much the only climate scientist on the planet that understands the importance of Dr. Tim Garrett’s work, which explains why I think most climate scientists are case studies for Varki’s MORT.

    By Richard Nolthenius: Will the End of Growth Tame Climate Change?

    Nolthenius’ recent twitter post, if true, is a big deal.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Interesting. Recently I speculated that cleaning up Sulphur emissions in shipping fuel may explain the recent gear shift in weather.

      There’s a new paper by James Hansen et. al. that seems to confirm this.

      https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474

      Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era — including “slow” feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases — supports this ECS and implies that CO2 was about 300 ppm in the Pliocene and 400 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, thus exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Under the current geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will likely pierce the 1.5°C ceiling in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and 3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made “geo-transformation” of Earth’s climate. These changes will not happen with the current geopolitical approach, but current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

        1. This is relevant to Donella Meadow’s book Thinking in Systems which I recently read in which she argues you need to be really careful when changing feedback loops of systems you do not understand.

          Here we tried to reduce pollution from shipping and inadvertently accelerated climate change.

          Perhaps DEF is having the same effect plus reducing our resiliency? We took proven reliable diesel engines, increased their complexity with DEF fueled exhaust cleaners, and now have our entire truck fleet dependent on a 2nd non-renewable substance. Urea is a key input for DEF and the top exporters are Russia and China. Oops.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust_fluid

          I wonder if EV’s will bring down the grid much more quickly when the energy crisis starts to bite?

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

  63. Tom Murphy debunks the latest Fusion denial.

    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/fusion-foolery/

    In any case, the public reaction to the fusion story tells me a lot about our collective psychology. To me, it speaks to a sense of desperation. I think people sense that the “bad news” side of the ledger is overcrowded of late, and it’s starting to dawn on people that the future could possibly be worse than the present. This causes a cognitive dissonance in that our cultural narrative is one of progress, growth, and innovation. How can these competing visions be squared? News of fusion has the effect of temporarily permitting people to shed the anxiety and embrace the dream all the more strongly. Words that come to mind are: embarrassing, pathetic, humiliating.

    Like

    Reply

  64. Jean Marc Jancovici is a superstar in the overshoot intellectual space – maybe number 1 in my ranking. He’s also an engineer, which I very much like.

    New Badass in Town: Jean-Marc Jancovici (Radio Ecoshock interview)

    By Jean-Marc Jancovici: Will technology save us from Climate Change?

    Nate Hagens recently interviewed Jancovici:

    A few points stood out for me:
    * Neither was aware of the other’s work, despite huge and rare overlap.
    * A soft simplification may not be possible, our entire civilization is dependent on computers that are dependent on rare metals that will be unavailable when diesel becomes scarce.
    * Worst case IPCC emissions models will not happen due to energy depletion, however, the consequences of probable emissions will be MUCH worse than predicted.
    * Sobriety is deciding to make do with less. Poverty is being forced to make do with less. France today is pretending that poverty is sobriety.
    * Because denial prevents people from acknowledging peak oil, Jancovici is using CO2 reduction as cover for peak oil planning in France.
    * Jancovici is succeeding in France doing what Hagens aspires to do in the US. I sensed envy.
    * Jancovici’s keys to success have been to speak honestly and clearly, to avoid mainstream media, to ignore political leaders, and to bring change from the bottom up via citizens who push their political leaders.
    * Support for nuclear energy is up by 20% to 70% in France (and Europe).
    * Jancovici’s latest book is being translated to English for US release end of 2023.
    * Jancovici’s advise for the overshoot aware is to avoid being alone, it’s easy to become anxious, all responses are collective.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  65. This Planet Critical episode focused on population reduction.

    I found Rachel’s guest Bill Ryerson to be an inspiring example of someone doing something useful and effective to get the population down.

    Perhaps not as fast as I think we should be moving. But n-1 is better than n when the goal is to minimize suffering from overshoot collapse.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  66. Every once in a while the BBC In Our Time podcast has a really good episode.

    If you’re looking for a little pick-me-up on how amazing the human brain is for figuring our complex things, and for how amazing the universe is, this is superb. I listened to it 3 times while camping.

    A handful of astronomy experts take a deep dive into what we know about stars but do so in easy to understand language.

    Many people say we are made of stardust, but it’s more accurate to say we are made of nuclear waste.

    Highly recommended.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0fy7ksn

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  67. Wow Rob, that’s a lot of catch-up homework you’ve just handed to us but this student is an eager beaver and very grateful for all the new fodder, it might take a few days to chew through though.

    Regarding choosing a pseudonym instead of commenting using my legal name, at first it was because I was totally new to this and any public space but I did think long and hard about taking on Gaia gardener because that’s really what I’d like to be known as.

    Interestingly, perhaps for those who have a curiosity for Chinese, part of my given Chinese name is Ga which means family or home, and that is what Gaia is for us. In traditional Chinese culture, the father chooses the name for the baby and my father who just immigrated to the States, also decided on my Western name as an afterthought because he was sure I was going to be born a boy (apparently he didn’t quite understand that a 50/50 chance is far from any guarantee!) and would have been named Tony. Apparently he didn’t even have a girl’s name in mind. I’m not sure what my mother’s opinion on this was. Funnily enough, the name he gave me turned out to be one that is equally used as a male name and in fact, the spelling he chose is the usual male version–it’s Terry. I don’t think he realised that but he obviously wanted me to be a son!

    There’s a bit more to the name tale. When I was old enough to be interested in what my name meant (and it’s on the birth certificate as Terry, not a nickname for Theresa), I discovered that it meant Reaper or Harvester, so in an almost prescient way my father did choose wisely after all. All my life I have been passionate about growing plants and tending the earth, and it is still my deepest heart’s desire, now especially food plants, until the time for me to return to the soil.

    Here I am very happy to continue as Gaia but I am also pleased that you know I’m called Terry. I’m sure there will be another opportunity for a surname reveal but you’ve had enough of my babble for today! I did say that even as Anon you would know I wrote it!

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  68. I spent another day exploring the Vancouver city area. This time I road the SkyTrain transit system to all of it’s extremes.

    The sky was overcast with smoke from wildfires giving the city a dystopian gray look.

    I had a tough time assessing the state of the economy. On the one hand there was a lot of high density construction underway everywhere I went suggesting the population is rising and the real estate sector is healthy. On the other hand, all of the small businesses I walked past had very few customers including food outlets at lunch time. Perhaps these observations confirm a widening wealth gap and a real estate debt bubble? I don’t know.

    My most important take-away from touring the city is that there are a LOT of people in a dense area and none of the resources they depend on to survive are produced nearby. It’s hard to imagine how cities will be good places to be in the future.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  69. I respect physicist Sabine Hossenfelder and read her book in which she argues that the discipline of physics has lost its way and is wasting time and money on research paths that will not bear fruit.

    Sabine Hossenfelder’s Lost in Math

    Sean Carroll is another really smart physicist and he argues in a recent podcast that Hossenfelder is wrong (without mentioning her name).

    Carroll makes the case that physics has been so successful at figuring out how the majority of our universe works that it is hard to make further progress because the remaning unknowns (like dark energy, dark matter, gravity unification) require experiments that are too expensive or are too complex for our current intellects. To make his case, Carroll takes us on a sweeping tour of what we do know.

    The point of this post is not to take a side in the debate (I suspect both are partially right) but rather to bring your attention to another superb example of how utterly unique the human brain is compared to all other animals.

    Listen to this podcast, and although you probably won’t understand all of it, let it wash over you and marvel at what the brains of our species have achieved.

    Such a shame that these accomplishments will soon be forgotten.

    Physics is in crisis, what else is new? That’s what we hear in certain corners, anyway, usually pointed at “fundamental” physics of particles and fields. (Condensed matter and biophysics etc. are just fine.) In this solo podcast I ruminate on the unusual situation fundamental physics finds itself in, where we have a theoretical understanding that fits almost all the data, but which nobody believes to be the final answer. I talk about how we got here, and argue that it’s not really a “crisis” in any real sense. But there are ways I think the academic community could handle the problem better, especially by making more space for respectable but minority approaches to deep puzzles.

    Audio version:
    https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2023/07/31/245-solo-the-crisis-in-physics/

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  70. Harvard2TheBigHouse sometimes offers a unique perspective on what happened, or is happening, with covid. I haven’t followed him enough to vouch for his integrity but he’s definitely intelligent and feels credible.

    In a recent essay he argues that covid was caused by a live attenuated vaccine (LAV) prepared with serial passage gain of function techniques that was administered as a test to the Chinese military at the Wuhan military games, and this virus is in process of deattenuating back to it’s deadly origins, as LAVs frequently do, and will soon kill many.

    The key culprits are still collaborating to hide the virus’ origin.

    I don’t know if he’s right but I’m so glad there are smart people out there still trying to figure out what our idiot and/or evil leaders did.

    https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/first-come-the-warnings-then-comes

    And so back in the 1980s, Tony Fauci was brought in by Robert Gallo to occlude HIV’s origins in the CHAT-OPV vaccine programs, understanding how the viral contamination across cell-lines happened. But whether or not that’s ever proven – Fauci definitely got installed to push AZT as an unproven but miraculous solution.

    Nearly nothing has changed, except for instead of a virus that only spreads through blood and sexual fluids, ours spreads right through the air. Might be a tiny bit more of a problem. And Tony’s old pal Robert Gallo has become a horcrux for both Joseph Mengele and Joseph Goebbls – first pioneering the military cancer-vaccine research programs that emerged from experiments like the CHAT-OPV and lead to SARS-CoV-2, and now writing propaganda for Time Magazine while trying once again to gaslight the American people into complacency about an incredibly lethal virus whose origins Gallo is helping hide.

    But not without some help.

    Robert Gallo, Tony Fauci, Bill Gates, Ralph Baric, Kristian Andersen, Francis Collins, Peter Daszak, Richard Ebright, Alina Chan, Jamie Metzl, Avril Haines, Josh Rogin.

    Dr. Joseph Mengele, who haunted millions during the Holocaust, never died. His corpse may or may not have been found off the coast of Paraguay, but regardless his spirit is still living on – alive and well, inside those empty soulless vessels. They are carrying on his work of making most morally bankrupt research imaginable seem palatable and somehow okay, as Alina Chan splices Ebola into human cells with DARPA funding, and then happily emerges as the locus of a Limited Hangout meant to hide SARS-CoV-2’s obvious origins in the most dangerous vaccine research humanity has ever known – live-attenuated vaccines that have the propensity to revert back to invincible highly-pathogenic chimeras that blow through vaccine-induced and natural immunity alike.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Or, if you prefer the Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche hypothesis, this update today from Rintrah is excellent. He argues, among other things, that Australia and New Zealand (and China) can be blamed for making the coming pandemic resurgence worse.

      https://www.rintrah.nl/ba-2-86-the-next-serotype/

      Here you can see the Spike mutations. XBC.1.6 has 14 mutations EG.5.1 doesn’t have, EG.5.1 has 17 (the XBB family as a whole has 15) that XBC.1.6 doesn’t have. They’re different enough that neither is able to wipe the other out in Australia. Instead they exist side by side, which suggests they’ll now evolve to stop interfering with each other.

      This is different from when Omicron first emerged. Omicron was so good at spreading itself, that it practically wiped out Delta. Delta got no real chance to adopt, except in the failed zero COVID utopia Australia, where it gave birth to XBC.1.6.

      But that seems much less likely to happen now. Instead, it looks like you’re going to have multiple very divergent families circulating together: The XBB family (of which EG.5.1 is part), the BA.2.86 family and the XBC (Delta-Omicron hybrid) family.

      None of this really had to happen. It happened because of a number of mistakes. To start with, there are the failed zero COVID utopias, Australia, New Zealand and China. These managed to keep SARS2 out for over a year, until they faced more infectious variants. Then they lost and gave those variants the chance to adapt in a population with very little immunity.

      That’s how Australia bred the very fit XBC.1.6 variants. XBC* went extinct in the Philippines, where it first emerged. It’s only in the failed zero COVID utopia Australia, which never had a big Delta wave, where it can train to become a globally co-circulating variant, a separate serotype.

      Second, there is the failed vaccine experiment. It looks unlikely that Delta could have survived in a population where everyone had caught Delta. But then a new version of COVID emerged, Omicron, that had changed its Spike protein. And because everyone had been vaccinated against Spike, the Omicron versions could spread themselves very rapidly. By now it is clear that the population has such a strong original antigenic sin effect, that XBB infection doesn’t induce a neutralizing antibody response against XBB. The XBB family can now just continually reinfect people.

      Like

      Reply

      1. A few days ago Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche published a long paper updating his view of what’s going on.

        It seems Bossche is predicting a significant die-off of vaccinated people.

        h/t to commenter on Rintrah’s blog

        https://www.anhinternational.org/news/whats-driving-turbo-cancers-and-autoimmune-flare-ups/

        The stronger the immune protection, the greater the potential infectiousness of newly emerging immune escape variants, leading to a higher incidence rate of VBTIs and, consequently, an increased rate of viral transmission. Although a high viral transmission rate ensures adequate training of the innate immune system in the unvaccinated, it prevents a highly C-19 vaccinated population from developing herd immunity! Nevertheless, herd immunity is the only mechanism that can ensure survival – and therefore long-lived protection – of a human population against acute self-limiting infections.

        Nature will establish herd immunity for the benefit of the host species’ survival. In order to achieve this, it will preserve individuals capable of making effective contributions to it while relinquishing those who are unable to do so (i.e., due to inadequate, deficient, or weakened innate immunity).

        Thus, it is not surprising that once the innate immunity of the unvaccinated has been trained strongly enough to possess sterilizing capacity against highly infectious circulating variants, the strong protection from C-19 disease in vaccinated individuals will suddenly transition to a heightened susceptibility to enhanced severe C-19 disease.

        To build efficient herd immunity during a natural pandemic, it suffices when the vast majority of the population acquires natural immunity. However, in the case of an immune escape pandemic (i.e., in a highly C-19 vaccinated population) that remains untreated, the portion of the population that is unable to sterilize the steadily emerging immune escape variants will inevitably succumb to the disease. This will automatically diminish viral transmission to a level where the virus can no longer survive, thus strengthening herd immunity (in the remainder of the population) beyond a threshold that would allow the virus to become endemic in the human population.

        This implies that it is the host species, not the virus, that will ultimately triumph!

        Based on the above, it can already be inferred that the human cost in lives during an immune escape pandemic is significantly greater than during a natural pandemic, where the selective loss of lives aids in preserving the overall population’s health. While herd immunity serves as the solution to end both a natural pandemic and an immune escape pandemic, the processes of its establishment and the resulting outcomes differ. In the context of a natural pandemic, it will lead the virus into endemicity, while in the case of an immune escape pandemic, it will lead to virus eradication.

        Like

        Reply

        1. It occurred to me that perhaps the Harvard2TheBigHouse and Bossche hypotheses are not mutually exclusive.

          The former focusses on the incompetent/evil source of the virus and the latter focusses on the incompetent/evil response to the virus.

          Like

          Reply

  71. I finally got around to watching the movie “Don’t Look Up”.

    Despite having a denial theme I procrastinated watching it because I suspected it would make me angry with producers trying to be clever, but in fact revealing their stupidity, by arguing that climate change could be easily fixed if we just stopped using oil and switched to green energy.

    I’m pleased to report that was not what I interpreted the producers to be saying. They seemed to be addressing the wider problem of human overshoot and did not imply there was an easy fix.

    There were lots of good chuckles poking fun at Varki’s MORT in action.

    I liked the movie and will probably watch it again.

    The last line of the movie by star Leonardo DiCaprio as he sat with friends and family moments before the asteroid killed them resonated with me:

    “The thing of it is, we really did have everything didn’t we, I mean when you think about it.”

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11286314/

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  72. A new animation from Kurzgesagt explaining the complex and intense issues our leaders must weigh in the 14 minutes they have to decide whether to retaliate to a suspected nuclear attack.

    Like

    Reply

  73. Excellent new essay from Tom Murphy looking at the profound and diverse consequences of humans shifting to agriculture 10,000 years ago.

    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/our-time-on-the-river/

    Where do we go from here? One feature of the river metaphor is a sense of inevitability, as was emphasized in The Ride of Our Lives. Logical consequences (all those associated tributaries) teamed up with game theory to ensure dominance of the agricultural, technological, industrial, scientific, market-driven, fossil-fueled juggernaut. This system had the adolescent power to overwhelm older, wiser, gentler ways, and required little thought or deliberate design: just go with the flow, and stay in the center of the channel to maximize speed.

    Now we are beginning to see the next inevitable development. A system dependent on growth, stacked to favor one species in the very short term, utterly reliant on non-renewable materials and temporarily copious energy, obliterating ecological health, objectifying nature and leaving important decisions to mindless money writes its own demise in the most elegant, efficient, optimized fashion. This churning, awesome mega-river leads itself over a waterfall. That’s just what it does. It was always so, but not at all obvious from upstream. Even now, so close to the edge, our vantage point on the river is the least advantageous for seeing the waterfall clearly, so that most people are still unaware or unconvinced. But increasing numbers of people see the clouds of mist and hear a mounting sound of continuous thunder. Others at least sense that something is not quite right.

    Unfortunately, the boat (modernity) seems like the only thing that keeps us safe at the moment. It isolates us from the turbulence and, well, wetness. It’s all we’ve known for generations. The context is changing, though. The boat is becoming a liability. It’s so massive and has so much inertia that it is committed to going over the waterfall—becoming a death trap for those who stay with it. It may have been possible in the distant past to alter course from the middle of the river, putting us closer to the safety of shore. But any suggestions to do so were ignored or ridiculed: the result would be slower progress, inefficiency, and not what the market (current) said was best. It turns out that modernity was optimizing its own speediest destruction—as its definition effectively required.

    We might now wish to slow things down, but modernity was built on a lie; a fatal flaw. If we voiced the command: “Slow down, Hal,” we’d get the response: “I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

    Like

    Reply

      1. “What are we to do?” persisted the Chief Conductor.
        “Nothing. God let us fall. And now we’ll come upon him.”

        Like

        Reply

      2. “Nothing,” came the merciless reply.

        Merciless, yet not without a certain ghostly cheerfulness. Now, for the first time, his glasses were gone and his eyes were wide open. Greedily he sucked in the abyss through those wide-open eyes. Glass and metal splinters from the shattered control panel now studded his body. And still he refused to tear his thirsting eyes from the deadly spectacle below. As the first crack widened in the window beneath them, a current of air whistled into the cabin. It seized his two wads of cotton wool and swept them upward like arrows into the corridor shaft overhead. He watched them briefly and spoke once more.

        “Nothing. God let us fall. And now we’ll come upon him.”

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  74. Another excellent essay from Tom Murphy. He’s smokin’ hot these days.

    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/

    Today, each human on the planet can only point to 2.5 kg of wild mammal mass as their “own.”

    Let that sink in. You only have 2.5 kg (less than 6 pounds) of wild mammal out there somewhere. A single pet cat or dog generally weighs more. Not that long ago, it was more than you could carry. Now, it seems like hardly anything! I especially fear the implications for mammals should global food distribution be severely crippled.

    The shocking result speaks for itself. What the hell are we doing?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  75. I watch a lot of Ukraine updates. I thought this one was pretty good if you want to catch up on what’s going on.

    The most effective weapon in the war has been mines. Ukraine is now the most mined country on earth with over 67,000 square miles of mine contaminated land.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  76. The BRICS renewal might be the most important story in world events. Nice update today from Simplicius the Thinker.

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-82623-wagner-denouement-and

    Firstly, this group now represents 37% of the world’s GDP in PPP terms. Keep in mind that the much vaunted G7 has 29.9%, down from 46% in 1992. And if all prospective members join in the future, it’ll be 45%.

    Think that’s not a big enough deal? The new 11-member BRICS, with its energy powerhouses of Iran, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, now also controls ~54% of the world’s oil production and 46% of the world’s population. Not to mention they will account for 48.5 million square kilometers, or 36% of the world’s landmass area.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  77. Our idiot leaders are incapable of learning from mistakes and self-correcting.

    Fortunately they’re all boosted to the max, unless you subscribe to something really dark going on, in which case they injected saline.

    https://www.rintrah.nl/a-simple-explanation-how-serotype-evolution-suggests-covid-vaccination-was-a-big-mistake/

    The Biden administration now wants to vaccinate everyone against SARS2 again this fall, other governments will probably do the same. Insofar as these vaccines will actually induce an antibody response that prohibits infection (this remains to be seen), they will just make the situation worse.

    By preventing infections against the dominant XBB family, they would just make it easier for the newly emerging serotypes (XBC* and BA.2.86*) to establish their own permanent niche in our population.

    Australia and New Zealand in particular would cause the world a big headache, if they now vaccinate their population again. They would give XBC* the opportunity to further improve itself, until it becomes ready to take on the rest of the world again. Australia’s high number of hospitalizations over the past few months suggests they’re already suffering the impact of simultaneous circulation of very divergent variants.

    We have different serotypes for Dengue, as well as for Rhinovirus, but this is not the end of the world. There’s an important difference however. With Dengue, the body first has a mild immune response to the first infection and then during the second infection it figures out that it’s responding in the wrong manner, ultimately resulting in a variant-independent response that typically prevents any third infection.

    With SARS2 it will be much harder for the body to figure out it’s responding in the wrong manner, because it has consistently been re-exposed to the virus many times, both to Spike from the vaccine and from infections.

    Just as it’s easier to convince someone he’s doing something wrong if he has only done it once before in his life, than if he has been doing it in that same manner his entire life, it will now be very hard for the immune system to figure out that it’s responding in the wrong way to a novel serotype.

    It’s worth keeping in mind that we don’t really know how many serotypes we will end up with. There are four big serotypes of Dengue circulating right now, with a fifth one argued to be coming into existence.

    I think we currently face the simultaneous circulation of three serotypes (XBB*, XBC*, and BA.2.86*), but this could change overnight. We could wake up tomorrow and learn that another chronic infection has led to the birth of a fourth serotype in some part of the world. It will take at least a few more months, until we can tell what the impact of simultaneous circulation of these serotypes will be.

    What you would expect is that most of the unvaccinated have by now developed a variant-independent antibody response, as well as variant independent trained innate immunity. They would typically have been infected once pre-Omicron and one or more times in the Omicron era.

    This is not what you expect to see in the vaccinated however. They generally tried to avoid suffering infection before Omicron and received two or three doses of the exact same Spike protein, a response that was then also deployed against Omicron and gradually shifts over time to adjust to the latest subtly different Omicron variants.

    Just as with the failed Dengue vaccination program in the Philippines, the shortcomings of that response tend to become apparent once you’re dealing with two or more very divergent versions of the same virus. You would expect the biggest problems to emerge in people who were vaccinated at least twice before their first COVID infection.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. The problem is the complete corruption of all institutions by money. Perhaps that is just the end result of a capitalist system? Money is power, security and prestige and corrupts all science it touches.
      AJ

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  79. It’s understandable that citizens and the news media do not discuss mRNA since they injected it and have genetic denial.

    But why the silence on the gain of function research that started this shit show? There’s no reason to deny this and lots of reason to be very angry. Yet silence.

    https://www.rintrah.nl/a-tough-question-for-team-nothingburger/

    Somewhere between the “antivaxxers” and the “Zero COVID zealots”, you will find team nothingburger, the “rational” “moderate” people who are just really eager to believe the world will now return to normal. SARS2 won’t depopulate the planet, vaccines won’t cause people to drop dead, the world panicked over a flu virus and now we’re back to business as usual.

    And I have a question for them. How do you explain those four million newly disabled Americans? You could pretend that long COVID is just another fake disease, but then you’re still stuck with those four million people who now have a disability. And in a period of two and a half years, that’s a lót of people.

    The numbers look a little awkward for the zero COVID zealots too, considering there’s no problem visible until the summer of 2021. I’d say it does fit my double-whammy model of the apocalypse: Mass vaccination + new virus = Constant reinfection. And considering that big spike at the end of the graph is June 2023, I would say we’re not out of the woods yet either.

    The reason this turned into such a thing that people still continue to argue and proselytize over is because people notice something is wrong. They’re getting severe colds in the middle of summer, they feel constantly tired, anxious and depressed, they notice every company is suddenly unable to fill its vacancies, they have far worse hay fever than they used to get and they notice young people “dying suddenly”.

    It’s not unique to the United States either. The pandemic so far resulted in half a million more people with long term sickness in the United Kingdom too, again with no end in sight, the last numbers are for June 2023 and show a new record again. And as I mentioned before, the Netherlands is now starting to notice a strange rise in people with memory problems.

    I’m a fatalist. I don’t think you can do anything to solve this, at least nothing that doesn’t create all sorts of new problems of its own. But I’m not going to sit here and pretend it’s not happening. Gain of function experiments only have to go wrong once, to create a very different world.

    We’re now stuck with millions of people showing various immune system problems. And the question to ask yourself is: How will BA.2.86 influence that picture? It is as different from currently circulating variants, as Omicron was from Delta.

    Like

    Reply

    1. I plan on using my horse paste (ivermectin) twice a year as a prophylactic (there is research showing that bi-yearly ivermectin shows lower cancer rates. And then use it again if I happen to get a covid variant. Never taking any “flu” shot of any kind again, maybe not any vaccinations – other than boosters for tetanus, etc.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. make sure you only get the tetanus one as the stuff containing pertusis is very bad for you.
        I personally am not getting any more vaccines after having researched things much further. The risk is too high.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. What would you recommend for children / babies? I notice in the USA babies are recommended more vaccines than in NZ. It must be hard for skeptical parents to know what to do…

          Like

          Reply

      2. We have 3 major crimes here:

        1) Gain of function research that released a contagious dangerous virus.

        2) Aggressive blocking of several safe, effective, and inexpensive preventions and treatments for the disease that could have avoided almost all loss of life and probably terminated the initial virus.

        3) Aggressive pushing of an inadequately tested mRNA substance that did not prevent people from getting sick, AND that did not stop transmission, AND that harmed many with side effects, AND that damaged immune systems, AND that has encouraged the proliferation of many variants that someday may turn deadly.

        Any one of these is a candidate for the biggest crime in our lifetime.

        All three together are unspeakably evil.

        Yet the criminals are not only getting away with it, they got rich in the process, AND NOBODY CARES.

        It makes me crazy.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

          1. The criminals have killed many and enriched themselves with zero consequences.

            I blame the large majority of citizens, including my friends and family, who’s denial circuits prevent them from seeing that the people they elected, and the doctors they trust, lied to them.

            It’s simply too horrific to accept.

            Like

            Reply

    2. You know this comment describes me pretty well. It is interesting working for a large manpower company. We have had more deaths in the company in the couple of years than normal. At the moment, bereavement leave is noticeably spiking. I had an appointment with someone recently who said a a few of her clients had recently died – it was noticeably unusual for her. It’s hard to know is this a signal, or am I just being hyper sensitive?? I don’t really know what to think. Everyone in my family is vaccinated, including myself, and we all seem to be fine – healthy as ever.

      Like

      Reply

  80. Just perusing all the blogs I read. . .
    Tom Murphy has a great post out today.
    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/learning-to-walk-again/#more-3456

    Personally I don’t know if there is somewhere out of the water for any of us. Is there dry land left? What is left of the experiment of modernity after it goes away?

    I’m not sure if life without the scientific knowledge we have gained is worth continuing? Are homo sapiens without awareness of the vastness of the universe,
    it’s beginning and what makes it all happen (evolution, the law of physics, etc.) worth anything? Not sure they are.
    AJ

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    2. The thought that humans could conquer space or indeed time-space seems to relieve death anxiety for some of the smart people

      Like

      Reply

    3. Yes, a good blog. I’ve also come to the conclusion that modernity can’t be saved. As to whether that removes the worth of living, I think all life evolved without thinking of the worth of living so we will go on, if we survive the bottleneck. We’d probably be too busy thinking about how to survive to worry about the worth of doing so.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  81. Back to my greatest short term worry. Nuclear war started by the fools in D.C.
    Andrei’s recent post after he came back from a vacation in Russia is scary again. It is interesting that he is a native Russian who chose 20+ years ago to live in Washinton state. He is one of the credible voices on all things Russian.
    The second video link in his blog post is precious. It was made just prior to Russia’s entry into the Donbass in February 2022. Col. Wilkerson’s take on the U.S. and how we have screwed everything up prior to the Ukraine war is interesting. We are probably as close as every to Nuclear Winter and the end of everything. Someday VERY soon I fear we will no longer be in contact with each other. I will miss you all!!
    https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/08/how-to-find-out.html

    AJ

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. I too have a very bad feeling. Everything is trending in the wrong direction. Nothing is trending in a good direction. Escalations it seems every week.

      Since this is un-Denial you would guess correctly that my biggest concern is total denial of all important unpleasant realities by western leaders: economy, energy, overshoot, Covid, Ukraine, Taiwan, etc.

      An interesting question is why do the Russians appear to suffer less from reality denial?

      Perhaps the brutal reality they were forced to experience by the Nazis in WWII?

      Here is the video AJ mentions:

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. As much as I don’t like Dmitry Orlov (because of his sexism and racism), he has made some interesting points over the years. Like Russians report the harvest each year as national news. Do I have any idea what the national harvest looks like in New Zealand, no! Russians also have a living memory experience of a collapse – he argues it gives them a more realistic take on things having experienced the hardship. Just a couple of random ideas

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. I’m sure you’re right. People who have experienced trauma/collapse/disadvantage etc are far more likely to accept that modernity can’t and won’t continue – as Kira said when her friend was down and out he could accept it, but once he was well to do, he couldn’t.

          I read somewhere years ago that if you were to go into a prison and explain collapse theory to the inmates, 90% of whom come from disadvantaged backgrounds, most would get it – as do children. It’s not rocket science, just out accursed genes.

          Liked by 2 people

          Reply

      2. A late reply, but at least on the economic front, the US at any rate does not yet appear to reflect reality with jobs, spending, wages and savings all rising.

        Our Drunken Sailors Are Drinking Directly from the Punch Bowl: Powell, Did You See That?

        Labor Force Spikes, Wage Pressures Stuck at High Levels, Job Market Sorts Out the Distortions from the Pandemic

        Perhaps this is the last drunken splurge before PO and depletion…..

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  82. Bill Rees: We’re screwed and here’s why.

    Rachel: I have hope. Look at how aboriginals lived sustainably. Look at how we innovate. Look at how fast renewables are growing. Look at how people are rising up.

    Bill Rees: You’re wrong and here’s why.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. Loved Bill’s discourse. Yeah, Rachel has some hopium mixed with a little denial about the uselessness of almost anything we as individuals can do. Bill’s talk on population’s need to come down along with a drastic decrease in energy/material use AND those points having absolutely no traction with the prevailing power structure (and human nature) means collapse is our destiny. I think Rachel gets this but denial kicks in.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Yeah, Rachel seems to desperately want to believe that humans can voluntarily change their collective nature. Her comment about road building being stopped in Wales was a bit misleading as not all projects have been shelved and it isn’t a hard and fast policy for the future, even if some of the actions appear to be based on a concern for the climate. As Bill hinted, governments say a lot of things about climate but it’s what they do that counts.

        Good suggesting by Bill about getting Rex Wyler on as a guest. From Nate Hagens’ round table, Rex is even more aware that humans are a species and act like one.

        Like

        Reply

  83. https://srsroccoreport.com/public/bakken-oil-field-we-are-kaput/

    …this video was put together by 50+ year oil veteran, Mike Shellman, back in 2020. Mike just reposted it today, and I thought I would share it on my website. If you haven’t checked out Mike Shellman’s Blog, I highly recommend you do and subscribe.

    His website is here: OilyStuffBlog.

    Mike took the infamous Hitler Bunker Scene and added his Captions. These captions perfectly describe what is taking place not only in the Bakken, but also in the other Shale Oil Fields. While it will take a bit of time to show, there are so many RED FLAGS now happening in the Shale Industry; Peak is now here.

    We must remember, that the Shale Industry used up 4,500+ DUCs – Drilled But Uncompleted Wells over the past two years, and didn’t have to book these as CAPEX costs, but now will have to. Thus, the shale companies reported lower CAPEX and higher Profits & Free Cast Flow due to this high Pre-Pandemic Inventory of DUCs. That comes back to haunt them now that costs have exploded, and they now have to DRILL & COMPLETE wells to maintain production.

    https://www.captiongenerator.com/v/1700652/we-are-kaput-!

    Like

    Reply

  85. HHH @ POB today.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/steo-and-tight-oil-update-august-2023/#comment-762616

    All the yield curves have 100 basis points of inversion. Not just one, all. And it has persisted for a year.

    One of two things has to happen. Either the long end of yield curve goes above the short end. Which would mean the 10 year at about 6%

    Or the T-bills yields fall back below the 10 year. Meaning FED is forced to cut rates.

    Which of these two do you think is most likely?
    Why would the FED cut rates? When supposedly the only thing in sight is inflation?

    If the 10 year goes to 6% are there any deposits left at the regional banks that originate the majority of commercial real estate loans?

    If the 10 year goes to 6% what does that mean for the cost of borrowing in the shale oil business?

    What does it mean for the interest expense on national debt?

    What does it mean for mortgage rates? 9-10% maybe?

    Recession is imminent regardless of how the curve un-inverts.

    Do you think the FED will be cutting rates if oil is $90 or higher?

    Or do you believe that the inversion can go on forever?

    September is usually a seasonal bottleneck when it comes to liquidity in markets. Chances of something breaking will be pretty high.

    The higher gas prices go the more pressure is turned up on FED to keep hiking rates. This isn’t going to end in a soft landing.

    Banks can’t make money on the interest rates spread with an inverted yield curve. For a year.

    One way or the other it has to un-invert. Question is how. Either way it goes it’s deflationary. One is immediately deflationary the other is deflationary after a small lag as the implications set in.

    Like

    Reply

    1. I too believe the lifting of the financial veil to be soon.

      I may well be wrong. We have (collectively that is) been so skillful at lying and pretending to postpone the realisation of the inevitable. But, I can feel the wheels of the cart up-hill are starting their motion. It’s slow at first and will accelerate frighteningly then.

      I have read from Arnaud Desjardins (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnaud_Desjardins, sorry I lost the exact quote) that “Reality never hurts, it is the lifting of the illusion which is painful”.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  86. The health complex is the same as the military-industrial complex.

    Health “emergencies”, like forever wars to defend “democracy”, create an unlimited flow of public money to enrich players in the complex.

    Must watch explanation of what happened with covid.

    h/t JHK

    Like

    Reply

    1. Loved this talk by Dr. McCullough. Very aware of how corrupt medicine/pharma/institutional science/government are. BUT I can’t say a word of this to anyone I know because they are all in denial and will call me a crazy conspiracy theorist.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I’m so angry about this that I’m willing to blow up any relationship regardless of how close, and have already done so.

        Denying or supporting the willful causing of harm via public health policies is not ok. Period.

        I’m also for the rest of my life going to vote for whomever promises to blow up the health complex status quo.

        I understand how French revolution citizens felt. I don’t care if a populist despot makes things worse as long as Fauci et. al. lose their heads.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Yes, this makes me angry, too.
          Up till now, the French of today proved to be more obedient than the mythicized French of the revolution.
          I don’t if that is fortunate or not. There was the Terror back then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reign_of_Terror. Although it could be argued that current times (especially during “emergencies”, like covid) are times of Terror too.

          Like

          Reply

  87. Rintrah disagrees with the Bossche hypothesis but still predicts a bad endgame thanks to the health complex.

    https://www.rintrah.nl/serotype-evolution-how-dengue-became-so-deadly/

    It would be easy to imagine a conspiracy by radical misanthropic environmentalists as responsible for this. But the reality is probably far more banal: Two superpowers experimenting with viruses to produce a new vaccine for military defense purposes, something going horrifyingly wrong during such an experiment, then a greedy real estate mogul elected president and his incompetent staff pursue a vaccine at “warp speed”, corporate greed leads vaccine developers to push an unsafe solution and rather than question the risks, scientists respond as a monolithic group.

    I’m not entirely convinced of van den Bossche’s endgame scenario, because I suspect that a heavily glycosylated Spike protein would not have a survival advantage: Although this would obscure the peptides to which most antibodies bind, the human body also produces antibodies (mostly IgM) that just react to anything covered by a large number of sugar molecules.

    Rather, I’m expecting that with multiple simultaneously circulating serotypes, we will just see a rapid deterioration of the situation. One article more or less won’t solve this situation. Rather, I’m honestly just motivated by a morbid curiosity.

    I used to think our civilization would eventually collapse due to the changes to our atmosphere, with humans retreating into megacities that block the sun, taking down non-human species with us as the heatwaves gradually just become too severe for above-ground vertebrate lifeforms to survive.

    But now it’s starting to look more as if life on Earth can outlive our species: We will descend into a grey haze of dementia and immune dysfunction, unaware of what is happening around us, as the world around us recovers.

    Like

    Reply

  88. Excess deaths up 20% in children with 94% correlation to vaccine rollout.

    The excess death trend is worsening.

    It seems to me the debate on cause could be quickly settled if governments published vaxed vs. un-vaxxed excess deaths, but they don’t, which speaks for itself.

    Can you imagine governments not publishing the data if it showed mRNA reduced excess deaths?

    Like

    Reply

    1. It’s crazy, isn’t it? I thought “truth” would slowly be recognized as time went by.

      But it seems the opposite is happening. I can’t bring this topic up at work. “Conspiracy theory”, “Russian propaganda”, smirks are the usual answers. Maybe I am the one living in fantasy-land and in need to grow up? I recognize the world is complex and this may not be as clear-cut.
      Oh so I wished we just had untarnished data published in mainstream media. This could be so simple a case.
      Instead, we are just waiting for the damage to pile up to the point every body freaks out (again) and another round of vaccine is rolled out?

      I apologize for expressing fear and anger in this post. This is not really constructive. It’s hard to go against the collectively built reality. It’s a relief to have people with integrity, like you Rob (and hopefully others too) who cold-bloodedly strive for facts. It’s not easy to discern lies from reality. Everybody has his fantasies.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  89. Did a test today on a can of evaporated milk that was 8 years past it’s best by date. The color had yellowed and lumps had formed. Smell suggested it was safe to eat but I did not like the flavor.

    preptip: Evaporated milk is not a good choice for long term storage.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

Leave a comment