This is an excellent interview on oil and the economy…
Category: Energy
By Gail Tverberg: How Our Energy Problem Leads to a Debt Collapse Problem
Another fabulous article by Gail Tverberg.
I doubt that 1 person in a 10,000 understands this important topic.
Our Leaders Are Stupid But Not That Stupid
Our leaders are stupid but not that stupid.
At some point they will finally understand that economic growth is no longer possible and permanent economic contraction is guaranteed due to falling net energy.
At that point they might implement aggressive measures to reduce CO2 emissions. This will allow them to blame climate change for a shrinking economy and thus avoid the panic, hoarding, and wars associated with wide-spread understanding of overshoot and limits to growth.
On the other hand…
History strongly suggests there is no limit to human stupidity and we will blunder into full on collapse and wars over the remaining scarce resources.
By Nicole Foss: The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space (plus interview)
Nicole Foss has one of the best minds on the planet.
Find yourself a quiet couple hours and then read this article by Nicole Foss to get the clearest description available anywhere of what we can expect to experience in the not too distant future.
For many this may feel like a cold shower, but I think having realistic expectations is one of the better means of maximizing future happiness, and for appreciating what we have today.
The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space
And for those that prefer video, here is an in-depth interview with Nicole Foss.
By Gail Tverberg: Deflationary Collapse Ahead?
We might bump along for another year or two but my guess is that Gail Tverberg is right and it’s time to tighten our seat belts.
I called my bank’s “expert” today to inquire about the new bail-in law. “Yes it was passed by the Canadian government. No I don’t know if there is a cap on how much of your savings can be confiscated in a banking collapse. But don’t worry, the Canadian system is very sound”.
Idiot.
By Gail Tverberg: How Economic Growth Fails
Another brilliant article by Gail Tverberg who has one of the best understandings and ability to explain the economy and its imminent collapse.
If you only have time for one article a week, Gail’s should be at the top of your list.
Post Peak Oil Choice: Inflation or Deflation?
Greece is what a post peak oil world looks like. Low paying jobs. Smaller and then no pensions. Less and then no health care. Fewer and then no public services. Everyone angry and blaming something except the real issue: falling per capita net energy.
Imagine medieval Europe. That’s our destination, at best.
Krugman and others are saying that forcing Greece to increase taxes and reduce expenditures will make things worse. Instead they think Greece should be able to print money to pay their debt on the assumption that a devalued currency will increase exports and thus solve the problem with economic growth.
This may have been a valid strategy prior to peak oil, but not now. Growth is no longer possible. This means the Greek standard of living will continue to fall regardless of government or central bank policies.
Given this reality, a country can choose to reduce incomes and wealth with deflation or inflation. I prefer deflation, but reasonable people might prefer inflation.
That’s the essence of the Greek referendum: Do you want to get poorer with deflation or inflation?
Peak Oil and Debt
Greeks, on the one hand, want to maintain their standard of living and need debt to do so. Banks, on the other hand, want to grow their business and are motivated to loan more. When physical constraints to growth exist, like peak oil, this is a deadly mix. If you get in over your head on debt then both parties will experience a lot of pain.
The bigger picture is that most countries in the world are living well beyond their means, and equally important, their means are in decline due to peak oil. The main mechanism we use to live beyond our means is to grow debt faster than income. This works for a while but only delays, and then makes MUCH worse, the inevitable day of reckoning.
I think it is time we had an adult conversation and took action to acknowledge we are living well beyond our means and that our means are in decline.
We should shrink the public sector to a level we can afford without debt. If you value public services then vote to keep them with higher taxes. Debt only works when growth is possible. We must stop using debt in a post peak oil world.
Debt is analogous to CO2. We could (or could have) collapsed the economy and held at less than 2 degrees, which would have been painful, but we chose not to and are now on a path to a much worse fate.
Greeks and Referendums
Great, let’s have a referendum to decide if we should pay our debts.
Why don’t we all do that? If I vote no, do I get to stop paying my credit card?
The developed countries are filled with people who think they are entitled to a comfortable life. News flash! We’re on the down side of the Hubbert curve.
Each and every year from now on our standard of living will drop.
To the Greeks: why don’t you have a referendum on whether we should discover more oil?
By Richard Smith: China’s Communist-Capitalist Ecological Apocalypse
This is the best article I’ve read on China and is a must read for anyone seeking to understand the difficulty of us voluntarily doing anything to make climate change less bad.
This article seeks to explain why China’s environmental crisis is so horrific, so much worse than “normal” capitalism most everywhere else, and why the government is incapable of suppressing pollution even from its own industries. I begin with an overview of the current state of China’s environment: its polluted air, waters, farmland and the proximate causes, including overproduction, overdevelopment, profligate resource consumption, uncontrolled dumping and venting of pollutants. I then discuss the political-economic drivers and enablers of this destruction, the dynamics and contradictions of China’s hybrid economy, noting how market reforms have compounded the irrationalities of the old bureaucratic collectivist system with the irrationalities of capitalism resulting in a diabolically ruinous “miracle” economy. I conclude with a précis of the emergency steps the country will have to take to take to brake the drive to socio-ecological collapse, with dire implications for us all.
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/31478-china-s-communist-capitalist-ecological-apocalypse
un-Denial 