“2015 was a banner year for doom” – RE @ Doomstead Diner”
This is one of RE’s best rants.
Lots of depth and breadth plus his usual acidic humor.
Category: By Other Authors
By Robert Marston Fanney: Top Scientists Declare Links Between Extreme Weather and Climate Change
“Andy Lee Robinson said it all-too-well — “El Nino + Climate Change = El Diablo.”And as the Washington Post so cogently notes — the world is now experiencing a rash of Freakish Weather from the North Pole to South America. It’s what appears to be happening as these two major record weather makers fire off simultaneously. A grim tally that includes the highest river levels ever seen in Missouri, the worst floods England has seen since the Middle Ages, the first time the North Pole has seen significantly above freezing temperatures during Winter in modern record keeping, city and region-crippling droughts spanning Central and South America, and seemingly everywhere, but especially in the North Atlantic where Greenland melt outflow has backed up the Gulf Stream, storms that seem to laugh in the face of our weather history.”
By Ron Patterson: All Roads Lead to Peak Oil: Oh Shit Moment Now
An aha quote from Ron Patterson a.k.a. Rockman…
“Look at the US oil production curve. We peaked about 35 years ago. And during those decades the inflation adjusted price of oil was less the current prices…and considerably less then during the height of the shale boom.
And the shales boomed when oil price boomed. And not due to technology: horizontal drilling for unconventional reservoirs, like the Austin Chalk in Texas, was well established 15 years earlier. And fracking has changed very little for decades.
In other words US oil production peaked because oil prices essentially peaked decades ago. Yes: up and down but no great movement like we saw when the shales boomed. And US oil production almost reached a new peak because oil prices reached near peak levels once again. Which means that we may not only be at global PO but the longer it takes for oil prices to significantly increase we may never again approach current production levels as depletion continues to take its toll. The recent increase in global oil production actually is the result of low oil prices…not higher. The oil price collapse has forced some producers, like the KSA, to bring their reserve capacity into play so as to increase the revenue stream. Which also means the lower oil prices are also increasing the depletion rate of existing proven reserves as well as hampering the development of new reserves.
The recent oil price collapse may eventually be viewed as the ultimate “Oh shit” moment in the global energy dynamics.”
By George Mobus: Celebrating the Darkness of Winter Solstice
George Mobus writes less frequently these days but still has good insights.
“So is this what a global civilization collapse looks like? Or am I the only one who sees the world crumbling at a seemingly accelerating rate? I am open to the possibility that I am suffering from confirmation bias since I have been a commentator on this subject for many years now. But as I continue to survey the dynamics of things like the refugee crises, the growing spread of terrorist acts, and American politics, among others, I am more convinced than ever that we are sliding into a serious decline of civilization on a global scale.”
By David Collum: 2015 Year In Review
My favorite annual economics review is now available for your enjoyment.
A couple of my favorite quotes…
What makes this all so absurd is that there isn’t even a good narrative bias. The 1995–2000 mania was based on a very cool, world-changing tech revolution not unlike the tech revolution of the 1920s. Being duped by the narrative bias was forgivable. The current global equity run, by contrast, is based on the assumption that a bunch of second-rate economists (but first-rate bureaucrats) running monetary policy using third-rate Gaussian models have our backs covered. And get this: they are going to help us with controlled demolition of our currencies because . . . wait for it . . . inflation is good, and they know exactly how much is optimal because they are omnipotent.
Companies are making corn dogs from their seed corn.
By Population Institute: Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot (book and video)
An excellent on-line book and video by the Population Institute.
Any book that starts and ends with a quote by Albert Bartlett is worth your time.
“Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?” – Albert Bartlett
Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot (the book)
Lord Man: A Parable (the video)
By Gail Tverberg: Economic Growth: How It Works; How It Fails; Why Wealth Disparity Occurs
Mark Twain wrote, “It ain’t what you know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure, that just ain’t so.” This is especially a problem for academic researchers who depend on the precedents of past academic papers. A researcher may have come to a conclusion years ago, based on a narrow set of research that didn’t cover today’s conditions. The belief can get carried forward endlessly, even though it isn’t really true in today’s situation.
Another excellent piece from Gail Tverberg on energy, debt, limits to growth and why this time really is different.
It is frightening that none of political or economic leaders understand this stuff.
Imagine trusting your life to a doctor that was trained as an astrologist.
Economic Growth: How It Works; How It Fails; Why Wealth Disparity Occurs
By Steve Ludlum: Climate Tactics Redux
The most effective policy is to pay people to conserve: to offer a basic income conditioned to meeting conservation standards; to pay citizens who do not have children or own cars.
Steve Ludlum has long been one of my favorite thinkers on the relationship between energy and the economy. He predicted today’s low oil price 3 years ago and got it right to within a few months.
This is Steve’s first significant foray into climate change (that I can recall) and he nails it. Steve presents a long list of proposals for addressing the problem, many of which seem feasible to me, unlike the proposals presented by most climate “experts”.
Here are a few of the highlights:
- CO2 emissions are going to decline soon regardless of what we do because of resource depletion and economic collapse. We should focus on other forms of pollution because we have solutions and because there will be indirect benefits to climate change, not to mention our and the planet’s health.
- We should pay people to conserve rather than spending money on green growth “solutions” that make things worse.
- Climate scientists should lead by example. They have no credibility today because they are hypocrites.
Lots of good stuff here.
It’s sad that none of our leaders will ever read this.
http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/12/10/climate-tactics-redux/
By Zero Hedge: Beijing Pollution Red Alert
“Beijing has issued its first pollution red alert as acrid smog enveloped the Chinese capital for the second time this month.”
All they need is a breeze to carry it away so the trees can absorb it and die instead of us.
Ah, but can we survive without trees?
China Chokes As Beijing Issues “Red Pollution Alert” For First Time Ever
Beijing issues first pollution red alert
By Baba Brinkman: Make It Hot (rap on climate change)
I’ve been a fan of Baba Brinkman for years and have purchased all of his albums. His specialty is rapping on science topics.
I criticized Baba for not understanding the problem when he produced his first rap on climate change a few years ago.
This recent effort is much better. Here’s hoping that for his next effort he learns the relationship between wealth and energy.
un-Denial 