Category: Blog

The Most Fortunate Generations (George Monbiot)

“Fossil fuels helped us to fight wars of a horror never contemplated before, but they also reduced the need for war. For the first time in human history ‐ indeed for the first time in biological history ‐ there was a surplus of available energy. We could survive without having to fight someone for the resources we needed. Our freedoms, our comforts, our prosperity are all the products of fossil carbon, whose combustion creates the gas carbon dioxide, which is primarily responsible for global warming.

Ours are the most fortunate generations that have ever lived. Ours might also be the most fortunate generations that ever will. We inhabit the brief historical interlude between ecological constraint and ecological catastrophe.”

— George Monbiot, 2006

http://global-fever.org/ch6.pdf

Hat tip Gail Zawacki.

As Good and As Bad As It Gets…

There is no magic unknown “dilithium crystal” energy in the universe.  Fission and oil are as good as it gets. Fusion is too hard.

It takes a rare and special planet to make oil. We blew through several hundred million years worth of oil in about 100 years.  And you can’t do fission without oil.

It was a lot of fun but we killed a lot of species and ruined our home in the process.

Our Place in the Universe

The goal of the universe is to degrade energy. Life is one of the universe’s best inventions for degrading energy because it replicates until it has used all available resources. Humans use their unique brain power, which emerged after a rare mutation for denial of reality, to out compete other life. But the losers would do the same thing if they could. A dead planet seems to be consistent with what the universe wants.

I’m Back…

A year ago I quit working on this blog when I lost confidence that I had anything unique to say. There are many people writing that are smarter and more eloquent than me.

I’m feeling again that maybe I do have something unique to say, or at least that I can offer a different tone.

I’ve updated the welcome page to reflect my renewed confidence.

By Steve Keen: Credit Money: How it Works and Why it Fails

I need to get a small rant off my chest. I promised myself no finger-pointing on this site but I have to make an exception for Economists. With a total disregard for physical laws, the scientific method, and insufficient calculus skills to create a model that reflects reality, the embarrassing discipline of Economics makes it possible for anyone to prove anything. And they do. All the time. Not one economist in a hundred has a clue. And these people are the most important advisors to our governments. Perhaps it is the fact that economists can generate any answer to any question that makes them popular with politicians, who to get elected, must tell voters what they want to hear.

The only economist I listen to is Steve Keen. He has a lot of important things to say. What distinguishes him from the crowd, and you are really not going to believe this, is that he includes debt in his models. Do yah think debt might be important? Duh. He’s also well grounded in thermodynamics which is vital to understanding the economy.

Credit Money: How it Works and Why it Fails, Part 1

Credit Money: How it Works and Why it Fails, Part 2

Credit Money: How it Works and Why it Fails, Part 3

What Might Force an End to Money Printing?

What might force an end to money printing?

It’s an important question because that event, whatever it is, will probably trigger a deflationary crash. I don’t mean to suggest that this will be the final crash, or even the main crash, but rather the first big crash we will experience.

I’ve read a lot of smart people and asked a lot of questions but it seems no one knows the answer to this question. Which makes sense because the system is very complex and what will happen is heavily dependent on what the majority of the public believes, and on what politicians do, both of which are unknowable and unpredictable.

Following are some scenarios that seem plausible. In all cases I envision something happening that is too large for central banks to offset with more money printing which then exposes the fact that they are not as powerful as many people think and are forced to curtail printing or risk losing credibility.

  1. The majority stops believing that growth will restart and a panic selling of assets begins that becomes too large for central banks to put a bid under.
  2. Bond markets become concerned about inflation and force the interest rate up.
  3. An external shock, such as a foreign country or bank defaulting, sets off a chain reaction in our interconnected economies.
  4. War or terrorism disrupts the energy sector of an exporting country.

The best early warning signal for the first three scenarios will be rising interest rates.

I Told Me So…

Last year the Federal Reserve announced they were going to taper QE (reduce money printing). For those of you new to the party they are printing about 3 billion dollars a day (about $10 per day per person).

Most people interpreted this as good news that the economy was recovering and assumed the taper would happen as announced.

I said to myself, no chance. They can’t slow QE because the physics and mathematics of our predicament will not permit it.

Yesterday the new head of the Federal Reserve announced that their plans to taper are now flexible which is code speak for “we will not taper if doing so would cause GDP and/or asset prices to fall”.

Does Intelligence Require Denial?

In 2011 I wrote:

I wonder if intelligence requires denial to survive?

With intelligence we are capable of understanding:

  • the universe will eventually go dark
  • the sun will age and engulf the earth
  • we will die
  • there is no god
  • the only purpose to life is for genes to reproduce
  • political beliefs and leaders have no influence on anything important
  • technology is just a flattering word for new ways to consume non-renewable resources
  • climate change will ruin the lives of our grandchildren and it’s too late to do anything about it
  • depletion of non-renewable energy will eliminate 9 out of 10 people within 50 years
  • more than 50% of our paper wealth will vaporize in the coming global depression

I know that I would be more motivated if I was ignorant and optimistic.

In 2013 a new book titled Denial by Ajit Varki and Danny Brower was published in which they make the case that human intelligence does in fact require denial.

This book provides a plausible explanation for some of the most perplexing human mysteries.