Author: Rob Mielcarski

By Population Institute: Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot (book and video)

An excellent on-line book and video by the Population Institute.

Any book that starts and ends with a quote by Albert Bartlett is worth your time.

“Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?” – Albert Bartlett

Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot (the book)

Lord Man: A Parable (the video)

Religion Evolves (Baba Brinkman): We Need a New One

Religion is one of the most powerful forces that has shaped human history.

A new religion based on reverence for the diversity and complexity of life on earth, and on the rare privilege of having an evolved brain powerful enough to understand our place in the universe, and on how we are harming our precious home might help our predicament.

The logistics seem feasible. Christianity took over the Roman empire in a very short period of time.

The big question is, is it possible to have a popular religion that conflicts with what our genes want to do, namely maximize resource capture and reproduction, which of course is what is causing us to kill the planet.

I’m guessing not, but it’s worth a try.

Here’s an excellent new rap from Baba Brinkman titled Religion Evolves.

India Plans to Double Coal Output: Truth on Renewables Revealed

If solar and wind can grow an economy and lift millions out of poverty why then does India still plan to double its use of coal?

Those seeking to understand the truth about renewable energy need only observe where countries invest their energy dollars. Opinions cannot be trusted. Actions reveal the truth.

Many people point to Germany as a role model for what’s possible with renewable energy. Developed countries like Germany can increase renewable energy because they are rich enough to eat their seed corn for a while, and because they outsourced some of their manufacturing to developing countries like China, and therefore need less energy to maintain the same lifestyle.

Developing countries, on the other hand, have little extra seed corn to eat and need fossil energy to create wealth and lift their people out of poverty.

Yellen and 0.25%: Will She or Won’t She?

Will she or won’t she raise interest rates this week?

A mere 0.25% and many are worried Yellen might bring down the world.

In my graduating year of university rates were almost 20%. For the majority of my life 5% was normal. We’ve been at 0% for 7 years.

This is not normal.

Why aren’t more people curious about what this really means?

COP21: Doubling Down on Denial

What have we done to date?

  • We set a goal to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees, despite it being clear that the current 1 degree rise is already unsafe.
  • We did absolutely nothing to achieve the goal; we didn’t even try.
  • We emitted enough CO2 to guarantee at least 2 degrees, even if we stopped all emissions today.
  • No one knows for sure, but we may have already triggered self-reinforcing feedback loops that will increase the temperature by a civilization killing 4-6 degrees; the point being that time is of the essence.

What should we have done at COP21?

  • We should have acknowledged the severity of our predicament.
  • We should have discussed the relationship between wealth and climate change; namely that wealth is proportional to energy consumption, CO2 emissions are proportional to energy consumption, and temperature is proportional to accumulated CO2; therefore to mitigate climate change we must reduce our total wealth.
  • We should have discussed the differences between fossil energy and renewable energy, and why the latter do not have the density, quality, or scale to run our advanced civilization.
  • We should have discussed the depletion of fossil energy and why aggressive conservation now would be a really good idea for both climate change and world peace.
  • We should have acknowledged that there are no easy solutions but lifestyle changes to focus on needs rather than wants, and population reduction policies would help.
  • We should have acknowledged that rich people and countries will have to reduce consumption much more than the poor if we want to maintain peace.
  • We should have acknowledged the good news that most people in developed countries have much more than they need to have a comfortable life.
  • We should have explained all of this to the citizens of the world and asked for their cooperation.

What did we actually do at COP21?

  • We changed the already impossible goal of 2 degrees to a more impossible goal of 1.5 degrees, thus grossly misleading the citizens of the world that our leaders are doing something useful.
  • We took no actions that will reduce CO2 emissions.
  • We made the situation worse by emitting tons of CO2 to fly 40,000 people to Paris to achieve nothing, and set a bad example in the process.
  • In summary, we doubled down on denial, instead of having an adult conversation.

By Gail Tverberg: Economic Growth: How It Works; How It Fails; Why Wealth Disparity Occurs

Mark Twain wrote, “It ain’t what you know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure, that just ain’t so.” This is especially a problem for academic researchers who depend on the precedents of past academic papers. A researcher may have come to a conclusion years ago, based on a narrow set of research that didn’t cover today’s conditions. The belief can get carried forward endlessly, even though it isn’t really true in today’s situation.

Another excellent piece from Gail Tverberg on energy, debt, limits to growth and why this time really is different.

It is frightening that none of political or economic leaders understand this stuff.

Imagine trusting your life to a doctor that was trained as an astrologist.

Economic Growth: How It Works; How It Fails; Why Wealth Disparity Occurs

By Steve Ludlum: Climate Tactics Redux

The most effective policy is to pay people to conserve: to offer a basic income conditioned to meeting conservation standards; to pay citizens who do not have children or own cars.

Steve Ludlum has long been one of my favorite thinkers on the relationship between energy and the economy. He predicted today’s low oil price 3 years ago and got it right to within a few months.

This is Steve’s first significant foray into climate change (that I can recall) and he nails it. Steve presents a long list of proposals for addressing the problem, many of which seem feasible to me, unlike the proposals presented by most climate “experts”.

Here are a few of the highlights:

  1. CO2 emissions are going to decline soon regardless of what we do because of resource depletion and economic collapse. We should focus on other forms of pollution because we have solutions and because there will be indirect benefits to climate change, not to mention our and the planet’s health.
  2. We should pay people to conserve rather than spending money on green growth “solutions” that make things worse.
  3. Climate scientists should lead by example. They have no credibility today because they are hypocrites.

Lots of good stuff here.

It’s sad that none of our leaders will ever read this.

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/12/10/climate-tactics-redux/

By Zero Hedge: Beijing Pollution Red Alert

“Beijing has issued its first pollution red alert as acrid smog enveloped the Chinese capital for the second time this month.”

All they need is a breeze to carry it away so the trees can absorb it and die instead of us.

Ah, but can we survive without trees?

China Chokes As Beijing Issues “Red Pollution Alert” For First Time Ever

Beijing issues first pollution red alert

 

 

Canada Shocks COP21 with Big New Climate Goal: It’s All Bullshit

“Sunday night, Canada surprised a world of nations and negotiators in closed-door climate talks in Paris by endorsing a bolder, more ambitious target for cutting greenhouse gases than the UN climate change summit is officially aiming for.

Canada’s Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna told a stunned crowd that she wants the Paris agreement to restrict planetary warming to just 1.5 Celsius warming —not two degrees. It was the first time she has made such a statement.”

It’s bullshit on 2 levels:

First, if we stop all emissions today, which we can’t, we’ve already released enough CO2 to cause 2 degrees of warming.

Second, to have any effect they must shrink the Canadian economy and they campaigned on a platform to do the opposite by increasing government debt.

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/12/07/news/canada-shocks-cop21-big-new-climate-commitment

By Baba Brinkman: Make It Hot (rap on climate change)

I’ve been a fan of Baba Brinkman for years and have purchased all of his albums. His specialty is rapping on science topics.

I criticized Baba for not understanding the problem when he produced his first rap on climate change a few years ago.

This recent effort is much better. Here’s hoping that for his next effort he learns the relationship between wealth and energy.