Author: Rob Mielcarski

By Gail Tverberg: Our Economic Growth System is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

Gail Tverberg’s insight continues to deepen. A must read.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/03/17/our-economic-growth-system-is-reaching-limits-in-a-strange-way/

If a person doesn’t understand what the problem is, it is easy to come to the wrong conclusion. Part of our problem is that we need a growing amount of net energy, per capita, to keep the economy from collapsing. Part of our problem is that entropy problems such as rising debt, increased pollution, and increasing complexity tend to bring the system down, even when we seem to have plenty of energy supplies. These are the two big problems we are facing that few people recognize.

Another part of our problem is that it is necessary for common laborers to have good paying jobs, and in fact rising pay, if the economy is to continue to grow. As much as we would like everyone to have advanced training (and training that changes with each new innovation), the productivity of workers does not rise sufficiently to justify the high cost of giving advanced education to a large share of the population. Instead, we must deal with the fact that the world’s economy needs large numbers of workers with relatively little training. In fact, we need rising pay for these workers, because there are so many of them, and they are the ones who keep the “demand” part of the commodity price cycle high enough.

Robots may be very efficient at producing goods and services, but they cannot recycle the earnings of the system. In theory, businesses could pay very high taxes on the output of automated systems, so that governments could create make-work projects to hire all of the unemployed workers. In practice, the idea is impractical–the businesses would simply move to an area with lower taxes.

Growth now is slowing because of all of the entropy issues involved. People in China cannot stand any more pollution. Too many laborers in developed countries are being marginalized by globalization and by competition with ever more intelligent machines that can replace much of the function of humans. None of this would be a problem, except that we have a huge amount of debt that needs to be repaid with interest, and we need commodity prices to rise high enough to encourage production. If these problems are not fixed, the whole system will collapse, even though there seems to be a surplus of energy products.

By Kim Hill: What’s Wrong with Renewable Energy?

http://dgrnewsservice.org/civilization/ecocide/extraction/kim-hill-whats-wrong-with-renewable-energy/

Ten things environmentalists need to know about renewable energy:

1.    Solar panels and wind turbines aren’t made out of nothing. They are made out of metals, plastics, chemicals. These products have been mined out of the ground, transported, processed, manufactured. Each stage leaves behind a trail of devastation: habitat destruction, water contamination, colonization, toxic waste, slave labour, greenhouse gas emissions, wars, and corporate profits. Renewables can never replace fossil fuel infrastructure, as they are entirely dependent on it for their existence.

2.    The majority of electricity that is generated by renewables is used in manufacturing, mining, and other industries that are destroying the planet. Even if the generation of electricity were harmless, the consumption certainly isn’t. Every electrical device, in the process of production, leaves behind the same trail of devastation. Living communities—forests, rivers, oceans—become dead commodities.

3.    The aim of converting from conventional power generation to renewables is to maintain the very system that is killing the living world, killing us all, at a rate of 200 species per day. Taking carbon emissions out of the equation doesn’t make it sustainable. This system needs not to be sustained, but stopped.

4.    Humans, and all living beings, get our energy from plants and animals. Only the industrial system needs electricity to survive, and food and habitat for everyone are being sacrificed to feed it. Farmland and forests are being taken over, not just by the infrastructure itself, but by the mines, processing and waste dumping that it entails. Ensuring energy security for industry requires undermining energy security for living beings (that’s us).

5.    Wind turbines and solar panels generate little, if any, net energy (energy returned on energy invested). The amount of energy used in the mining, manufacturing, research and development, transport, installation, maintenance and disposal of these technologies is almost as much—or in some cases more than—they ever produce. Renewables have been described as a laundering scheme: dirty energy goes in, clean energy comes out. (Although this is really beside the point, as no matter how much energy they generate, it doesn’t justify the destruction of the living world.)

6.    Renewable energy subsidies take taxpayer money and give it directly to corporations. Investing in renewables is highly profitable. General Electric, BP, Samsung, and Mitsubishi all profit from renewables, and invest these profits in their other business activities. When environmentalists accept the word of corporations on what is good for the environment, something has gone seriously wrong.

7.    More renewables doesn’t mean less conventional power, or less carbon emissions. It just means more power is being generated overall. Very few coal and gas plants have been taken off line as a result of renewables.

8.    Only 20% of energy used globally is in the form of electricity. The rest is oil and gas. Even if all the world’s electricity could be produced without carbon emissions (which it can’t), it would only reduce total emissions by 20%. And even that would have little impact, as the amount of energy being used globally is increasing exponentially.

9.    Solar panels and wind turbines last around 20-30 years, then need to be disposed of and replaced. The production process, of extracting, polluting, and exploiting, is not something that happens once, but is continuous and expanding.

10.    The emissions reductions that renewables intend to achieve could be easily accomplished by improving the efficiency of existing coal plants, at a much lower cost. This shows that the whole renewables industry is nothing but an exercise in profiteering with no benefits for anyone other than the investors.

By Mac10: The Idiocracy Doesn’t Believe In Reality

Mac10 seems to be on the edge of an awareness breakthrough.

He senses it.

He dances around it on a regular basis.

He almost sees the elephant in the room.

He just doesn’t quite get it yet that evolved denial is the core to everything he writes about.

http://ponziworld.blogspot.ca/2016/03/the-idiocracy-doesnt-believe-in-reality.html

Who are these liars who believe that if they say something loudly and stridently enough that it must be true? They conjure fantasies out of thin air and then repeat them over and over again, until they spin them into fabricated “truth”. Are these buffoons and psychopaths really the problem, or is it their willing audience?

We live in a society that can no longer handle any form of truth. The Idiocracy will believe absolutely ANYTHING except the truth. And therefore they provide a ready audience for demagogues, radio talk shows, conspiracy theorists, and average political game show hosts.

There are many blogs beyond this one, attempting to break down the lies to reveal the truth, however, there is absolutely no lamestream market for reality. The Idiocracy doesn’t believe that the impossible is not possible.

Therefore, is the first order problem the economy, the environment, geopolitics etc? Or is the real problem that we live in a mentally ill society that needs to be told ever bigger lies just to paper over the last set of lies that have already failed?

In other words, before any problems can be addressed at the root cause level, what is needed in the first order, is a mental “adjustment”. Which is coming.

The Idiocracy doesn’t believe in reality. And reality doesn’t believe in the Idiocracy.

By Mac10: Preparing The Vertical Mega Crash. Check.

A nice view of our economy from Mars by Mac10 although he does not seem to understand the physical and biological forces behind the problems.

http://ponziworld.blogspot.ca/2016/03/designing-mega-crash.html

The collapse isn’t beginning it’s almost OVER. Yes folks, seven years of non-stop bullshit and all that is left is the vertical Mega-Crash. The moment when EVERYTHING goes down at the same time. Risk is BINARY. Risk is Overnight. Risk is Weekend. Risk is 24×7. Welcome to Globalization…

If you dropped in from Mars and wanted to design human history’s biggest mega-collapse, here is what you would have already done…

First of course, outsource the economy such that supply is one locale produced by slaves with no purchasing power, while demand is another locale using borrowed money.

When that ‘Conomy fails in 2008, inflate all risk assets using printed money, so that the trickle down casino creates a fake wealth effect.

Layoff millions of people to inflate profits to historically unprecedented levels. Take the profits and invest them back into stocks to paper over the collapsing revenue.

Monetize the tsunami of poverty into 0% and then invest it in greater over-capacity. Be sure to create as much deflation as possible thereby imploding anyone with debt.

Having sucked in nearly everyone to double down on the casino and 0%, begin the process of taking away all global liquidity, thereby systematically decimating one asset class at a time.

As each asset class/sector implodes, concentrate the remaining funds into the ever-dwindling sectors still rising, until only recession stocks are left holding up the entire delusion.

When 0% no longer incentivizes enough debt, cut rates to negative to pay people to borrow money. Be sure to implode all global banks at the same time.

Resolve a global oil glut by maximizing production. Fill every storage container on the planet with oil and then do everything possible to fix the imbalance, except for cutting production. Tell speculators the problem is fixed even when it’s not.

Encourage global debasement of currencies in a zero sum game race to the bottom. Act shocked when risk assets further implode with each round of debasement.

Hold non-stop Central Bank meetings to ensure continuous short covering rallies making risk management almost impossible.

Keep CNBS on in the background 24×7, blowing smoke up everyone’s asses non-stop.

Pretend no one saw it coming.

By Survival Acres: Planetary Emergency

http://survivalacres.com/blog/planetary-emergency/

This article has a nice discussion on the extreme level of denial in the majority of climate change scientists and activists.

I note that he does not seem interested in understanding why denial is so strong regardless of culture, religion, or politics.

Nor why denial is just as strong in climate activists as it is in climate deniers.

Nor why climate change is just one of dozens of huge issues that we deny and do not discuss.

For me, denial is the most interesting topic.

By John Weber: Superman Plays With Kryptonite Dice

This fabulous essay written by John Weber in 2010 was brought to my attention by a friend.

In it Weber describes the relationship between energy and our destructive dominance as a species. This theme is central to the manifesto I wrote for this site but Weber expands on the idea and provides more color.

I’m also pleased to see Weber touches on denial but I doubt he assigns the same importance to denial as I do.

Your time will be well spent reading this.

http://sunweber.blogspot.ca/2010/05/superman-plays-with-kryptonite-dice.html

 

Tim Garrett: On the Nature of Growth, and Our Special Place

This is a recent KKRN Community Radio interview with Tim Garrett, one of the scientists I respect the most.

http://kkrn.org/broadcasts/1220

Garrett again explains his thermodynamic modeling of civilization and his conclusion that collapse is inevitable regardless of what we do.

One comment in particular I found very insightful and I’ve not heard him make it in the past: There is no such thing as steady state in the universe. Thing always change. If that change happens to be growth then collapse is inevitable due to finite materials and energy. This means that a steady state economy is probably not feasible.

The interview reminded me of how fascinating denial is. The interviewer clearly understood Garrett’s theory but also refused to accept its implications, believing that if more people purchased solar panels and electric cars we could save ourselves. The denial filter in his logic was humorous to observe.

Denial is everywhere and deep when you watch for it.

Finally, the interview again got me thinking about the implications of the advanced technology we’ve created that enables abundant food, easy transportation, central heating, health care, and plentiful leisure time and toys.

The logic is as follows:

  • advanced technology requires up-front investment
  • up-front investment requires debt
  • debt requires growth
  • growth requires increasing energy and materials
  • growth must eventually stop on a finite planet
  • debt, which is the majority of wealth, becomes worthless without growth
  • complexity cannot be maintained without wealth
  • all advanced civilizations must therefore collapse
  • since the majority of energy and materials used were non-renewable, a collapsed civilization is unlikely to rebuild.

The conclusion to all of this is that advanced civilizations have short lifetimes in the universe and we should be grateful for being alive to enjoy one of the universe’s rarer and most interesting events.

By Baba Brinkman: God of the Gaps

Baba’s got a new rap on god.

I wish he would read Varki.

His insight would go from good to great.

The Best Idea for Population Reduction

The best idea I’ve heard for how to implement a one child policy is to mobilize grandmothers. Grandmothers are past child-bearing age and no longer feel the influence of their genes to have children. Instead they are concerned about the survival of their grandchildren.

If we could educate grandmothers on the imminent threat to their grandchildren by human overshoot then it might be possible to mobilize grandmothers as a single issue voting block in favor of a one child policy. Grandmothers are a large enough group that they could probably sway most votes if they voted as a block.

There is some history to support this idea. The prohibition of alcohol in the US, which required a majority of states to approve a change to the constitution, was spearheaded by a small group of dedicated women fed up with widespread alcoholism in society.

The threat from human overshoot far exceeds that from alcohol abuse so perhaps this idea is not so crazy after all.

I first heard this idea in an interview with Jack Alpert.

Extraenvironmentalist #11: Temporal Blindness

https://xenetwork.org/xe/episodes/episode-11-temporal-blindness/

Our education system creates the models we use to interpret information. A faulty model can lead to significant blind spots, especially in thinking about nonlinear problems. Do the cognitive models that you’ve developed allow you to understand the severe problems threatening our global civilization? How accurately can you recognize how trends will impact your society and your life? What is a reasonable response to dealing with 7 billion homo sapiens sapiens?

In Extraenvironmentalist #11 we speak with Jack Alpert of the Stanford Knowledge Integration Lab about the role that our cognitive models play in recognizing the severity of our global predicament. Seth and I discuss Jack’s writings and his Nonlinearity and the Elephant Problem video. After talking about how to deal with scarce resources on a finite planet, we dive into how to deal with overpopulation, including Jack’s approach for building public of rapid population decline through convincing grandmothers that fewer babies need to be born.

By Chris Martenson: The Return of Crisis

A nice essay by Chris Martenson today with an excellent big picture summary of the situation and risks.

Let me be blunt: this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before. Literally, the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today. The so-called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons.  Before, during and after the Great Depression, abundant resources, spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset.

This time there’s something different in the story line: the absence of abundant and high-net energy oil.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/96701/return-crisis