A clip from the 1st episode of the 2nd season of the TV series Utopia.
Author: Rob Mielcarski
Denial and Depression: An Informal Survey and Analysis
I belong to a group that discusses human overshoot.
I recently conducted an informal survey of members to see if anything could be learned from the relationship between denial of reality and depression.
I present here a summary of the survey and my analysis.
The survey consisted of 6 statements and participants were asked to check each statement they agreed with:
- Humans are in overshoot.
- There is no “happy” solution to overshoot.
- There is no life after death.
- I had above average depression in youth.
- I had above average depression before learning of overshoot.
- I had above average depression after learning of overshoot.
The first 3 statements were used to estimate the level of denial of reality as follows:
- If someone disagrees with each of statements 1-3 then they fully deny reality.
- If someone agrees with each of statements 1-3 then they do not deny reality.
- If someone agrees with 1 or 2 of the first 3 statements then they partially deny reality.
An analysis of the data showed:
- 3% of members deny reality.
- 42% of members partially deny reality.
- 55% of members do not deny reality.
- About 95% of members believe that humans are in overshoot and that no happy solution is possible.
- 55% of members are currently depressed.
- 15% of members have been depressed throughout life.
- 33% of members were depressed before believing in overshoot.
- 27% of members were not depressed until they believed in overshoot.
- 36% of members are not and have never been depressed, and 50% of these believe in life after death.
To put this data into context:
- Google says that 8-10% of all citizens are depressed.
- My observations suggest at least 99% of all citizens are partially or fully in denial.
I drew the following conclusions from this informal survey:
- Being depressed significantly increases your chance of accepting reality.
- Accepting reality significantly increases your chance of being depressed.
- You can significantly reduce your chance of being depressed by believing in life after death.
- To maximize your chance of happiness you should fully deny reality.
A larger sample size, more and better designed questions, and a better survey method would be required to draw definitive conclusions, but I see evidence here that supports Varki’s theory.
Mr. Robot: What Is It About Society That Disappoints You?
By Süddeutsche Zeitung: Panama Papers: The Secrets of Dirty Money

A massive leak to and investigation by a leading German newspaper into global money laundering and tax evasion by political leaders, business leaders, and celebrities in many countries.
If this were led by US journalists it would probably be buried but the Germans seem to have some ethics left so this could get interesting.
http://panamapapers.sueddeutsche.de/articles/56febff0a1bb8d3c3495adf4/
Not April Fools
Today is April 1st on the east coast of Vancouver Island at the 49th parallel and two teenage girls in bikinis walked past my home to the beach where they joined about 40 other sun-bathers.
75 years from today this house will be under water.
On the Origin of Life
Here are a few fabulous talks on the latest thinking about the origin of life.
By Eric Smith : Inevitable Life? (2007)
By Eric Smith: New Theories on the Origin of Life (2015)
By Michael Russell and Bill Martin: Origin of Life Animation (2010)
By Nick Lane: The Origins of Complex Life (2009)
By Nick Lane: Is Complex Life a Freak Accident? (2012)
By Nick Lane: Why is Life the Way it Is? (2015)
By Nick Lane: Matter and Energy at the Origins of Life (2016)
By Michael Russell: Origin of Life Through Convection and Serpentinization (2013)
By Michael Russell: On Life (2012)
By Sean Carroll: What is the purpose of life? (2016)
By Nick Lane: Why is life the way it is? (2017)
By Nick Lane: How Energy Flow Shapes The Evolution of Life (2018)
By Gail Zawacki: Earth Embalmed
A nice article by Gail Zawacki in which she summarizes some of the recent news on the damage we are doing to our home.
http://witsendnj.blogspot.ca/2016/04/earth-embalmed.html
There are so many calamities – fish kills in Florida and birds falling out of the skies, epic floods and droughts, the slowing of the ocean currents – that when I prepared the 26th Dispatch From The Endocene I left out a major incident I had intended to include – the abrupt and near total coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. The fact that it is just one item on the roster of grotesque environmental disasters that will catalyze NO change whatsoever in the engine of human civilization – even though it has to be the most egregious, most atrocious, most stunningly heinous example of anthropogenic ecocide – is astonishing.
It is proof, were any to be needed, that nothing – nothing, not an ice free Arctic, not a huge ice shelf breaking off Antarctica raising sea levels a foot in a week, not thousands of deaths in a heat wave, not storms so violent they lift boulders from the bottom of the sea – NOTHING will stop people from availing themselves blindly and greedily to the bounteous largess of Earth…until it is all gone, and there is none left.
The debacle in the reef is the latest example of humanity ceaselessly rendering the biosphere into a morgue. It’s as awful as though all the forests were dying, and we managed to ignore it.
Oh, wait.
By Jack Alpert: How Much Degrowth is Enough?
This analysis by Jack Alpert of what is a sustainable long-term population uses a different approach to that discussed by Paul Chefurka here.
The two independent calculations arrive at roughly the same number of less than 100 million meaning we need more than a 98% population reduction to be sustainable.
By Chris Martenson: We’re Not Going To Make It… without real sacrifice
Slowly but surely Chris Martenson is speaking with more confidence and reality, and less hopium and denial, especially about climate change.
I’m starting to like his new more honest voice.
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/97643/we%E2%80%99re-not-going-make-it%E2%80%A6
The world is just not yet serious enough about the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels. The math says that without a tremendous change in behavior, far greater than anything currently on display, we simply won’t “get there” waiting for market forces to do the job for us.
We’ll have to make and adhere to very different priorities. Such as completely redirecting our entire defense budgets to the process of retooling our entire relationship to energy.
We’ll need our buildings to use less energy. And we’ll need to live closer to where we work and play.
Our food will have to be grown differently. And it will have to travel less far to get to our plate.
Electricity will have to come from sources other than fossil fuels too.
Is it possible to figure this out in time? Well, whether it is or not is sort of beside the point. Because these changes are going to be forced on us anyways if we don’t.
So I guess I could be an optimist on the UN panel by telling them that I have 99% confidence that humans will someday be powering 100% of their energy needs from the sun.
I’ll just leave out that what I mean is that, in 100 or 200 years, humans will have painfully reverted back to a 1600’s-style subsistence farming lifestyle.
The point of this article is to refocus our attention on the need for each of us to lead the way, to begin our own individual energy transitions without waiting for some top-down solutions to come forward. The calvary simply isn’t going to show up.
book review: The Vital Question: Energy, Evolution, and the Origins of Complex Life by Nick Lane
Nick Lane has long been one of my favorite science writers, setting aside Varki of course who will always have a special place in my heart.
Nick Lane’s last book “Life Ascending: The Ten Great Inventions of Evolution” discussed the 10 most important inventions of evolution: the origin of life, DNA, photosynthesis, the complex cell, sex, movement, sight, hot blood, consciousness, and death. I read the book 4 times, was enthralled each time, and no doubt will read it again.
An earlier book by Nick Lane, “Oxygen: The Molecule that Made the World” discussed the amazing transformation of our planet by photosynthesis. After reading this book I look at grass with different eyes. And I love to tell the story of oxygen to any soul who will listen.
In his latest book “The Vital Question: Energy, Evolution, and the Origins of Complex Life” Lane has outdone himself.
The book is sweeping in scope, tackles the most cosmic question, as well as some important earthly questions, is beautifully written, and reads like a page turning mystery thriller.
There is so much here, where to begin?
Lane presents the latest science on the origin of life and makes a compelling case that prokaryotic (simple single cell) life is probably common throughout the universe because all that is required is rock, water, CO2 and energy, all of which are found within alkaline hydrothermal vents on geologically active planets, of which there are 40 billion in our galaxy alone, and probably a similar number in each of the other 100 billion galaxies.
Life emerges as a gradual and predictable transition from geochemistry to biochemistry. Life is not some spiritual mystery, but rather a predictable outcome of the fact that the universe abhors an energy gradient, and life is its best mechanism for degrading energy.
This theory elegantly explains why LUCA (the Last Universal Common Ancestor of all life) and all life that followed is chemiosmotic meaning that it powers itself with a strange highly unintuitive mechanism that pumps protons across a membrane.
The human body, for example, pumps a staggering 10 to the 21st power protons per second of life.
If life is nothing but an electron looking for a place to rest, death is nothing but that electron come to rest.
Lane then turns his attention to the origin of complex life: the eukaryotic cell. All of the multicellular life on earth that normally interests us such as plants, animals, fungi, and hot girls or guys, have a common eukaryote ancestor, and it appears this ancestor emerged only once on earth about 2 billion years after the emergence of simple life. Lane considers this the black hole of biology. A vital but rarely acknowledged singularity that requires explanation.
Lane presents a theory to explain the emergence of the eukaryote and shows that unlike simple life which is probable and predictable, complex life is improbable and unpredictable. It depended on a rare endosymbiosis (merging) of prokaryotes (simple cells) somewhat analogous to a freak accident. The resulting LECA (Last Eukaryotic Common Ancestor), having 2 genomes that needed to cooperate and evolve in harmony, was probably fragile, sickly, and vulnerable to extinction which forced it to evolve many unusual characteristics common to complex life such as the nucleus, sex, two sexes, programmed cell death, germline-soma distinction, and trade-offs between fitness and fertility, adaptability and disease, and ageing and death.
As the endosymbiont (cell within the cell) evolved into mitochondria (the energy powerhouses), eukaryotes were able to break through the energy per gene barrier that constrained the morphological complexity of bacteria and archaea for 2 billion years. Suddenly there was enough energy to power the evolution of complex structure, multi-cellular life, nail salons, and the iPhone.
How lucky that our minds, the most improbable biological machines in the universe, are now a conduit for this restless flow of energy, that we can think about why life is the way it is.
This theory will be particularly satisfying to students of human overshoot who understand that abundant non-renewable energy is the main reason for the size and complexity of today’s human civilization.
The universe, life, and complexity are all about energy.
I am a fan and student of Varki’s theory that human success is the result of a rare simultaneous mutation for denial of reality and an extended theory of mind.
Combining Nick Lane’s theory with Ajit Varki’s theory, and an understanding of our place on the overshoot curve, leads one to an amazing and almost mystical conclusion.
Intelligent life with an extended theory of mind is the result of a rare and unpredictable double mutation, layered on the emergence of complex cells, another rare and unpredictable accident. Intelligent life in the universe is therefore rare and will probably exist for only a short time before its intelligence fueled overshoot, and denial thereof, causes it to go extinct.
The fact that we are alive to witness and understand a very rare peak of intelligent life in the universe is cause for genuine awe.
We should savor it while it lasts.
Here is Nick Lane talking about some of the ideas in his book. I much preferred the book because the subject is too deep to be covered in a 30 minute talk but it’s a taste if you don’t have time for the full meal.
Here is an excerpt from the book’s epilogue.
All life on earth is chemiosmotic, depending on proton gradients across membranes to drive carbon and energy metabolism. We have explored the possible origins and consequences of this peculiar trait. We’ve seen that living requires a continuous driving force, an unceasing chemical reaction that produces reactive intermediates, including molecules like ATP, as by-products. Such molecules drive the energy-demanding reactions that make up cells. This flux of carbon and energy must have been even greater at the origins of life, before the evolution of biological catalysts, which constrained the flow of metabolism within narrow channels. Very few natural environments meet the requirements for life – a continuous, high flux of carbon and usable energy across mineral catalysts, constrained in a naturally microcompartmentalised system, capable of concentrating products and venting waste. While there may be other environments that meet these criteria, alkaline hydrothermal vents most certainly do, and such vents are likely to be common on wet rocky planets across the universe. The shopping list for life in these vents is just rock (olivine), water and CO2, three of the most ubiquitous substances in the universe. Suitable conditions for the origin of life might be present, right now, on some 40 billion planets in the Milky Way alone.
Alkaline hydrothermal vents come with both a problem and a solution: they are rich in H2, but this gas does not react readily with CO2. We have seen that natural proton gradients across thin semiconducting mineral barriers could theoretically drive the formation of organics, and ultimately the emergence of cells, within the pores of the vents. If so, life depended from the very beginning on proton gradients (and iron–sulphur minerals) to break down the kinetic barriers to the reaction of H2 and CO2. To grow on natural proton gradients, these early cells required leaky membranes, capable of retaining the molecules needed for life without cutting themselves off from the energising flux of protons. That, in turn, precluded their escape from the vents, except through the strait gates of a strict succession of events (requiring an antiporter), which enabled the coevolution of active ion pumps and modern phospholipid membranes. Only then could cells leave the vents, and colonise the oceans and rocks of the early earth. We saw that this strict succession of events could explain the paradoxical properties of LUCA, the last universal common ancestor of life, as well as the deep divergence of bacteria and archaea. Not least, these strict requirements can explain why all life on earth is chemiosmotic – why this strange trait is as universal as the genetic code itself.
This scenario – an environment that is common in cosmic terms, but with a strict set of constraints governing outcomes – makes it likely that life elsewhere in the universe will also be chemiosmotic, and so will face parallel opportunities and constraints. Chemiosmotic coupling gives life unlimited metabolic versatility, allowing cells to ‘eat’ and ‘breathe’ practically anything. Just as genes can be passed around by lateral gene transfer, because the genetic code is universal, so too the toolkit for metabolic adaptation to very diverse environments can be passed around, as all cells use a common operating system. I would be amazed if we did not find bacteria right across the universe, including our own solar system, all working in much the same way, powered by redox chemistry and proton gradients across membranes. It’s predictable from first principles.
But if that’s true, then complex life elsewhere in the universe will face exactly the same constraints as eukaryotes on earth – aliens should have mitochondria too. We’ve seen that all eukaryotes share a common ancestor which arose just once, through a rare endosymbiosis between prokaryotes. We know of two such endosymbioses between bacteria (Figure 25) – three, if we include Parakaryon myojinensis – so we know that it is possible for bacteria to get inside bacteria without phagocytosis. Presumably there must have been thousands, perhaps millions, of cases over 4 billion years of evolution. It’s a bottleneck, but not a stringent one. In each case, we would expect to see gene loss from the endosymbionts, and a tendency to greater size and genomic complexity in the host cell – exactly what we do see in Parakaryon myojinensis. But we’d also expect intimate conflict between the host and the endosymbiont – this is the second part of the bottleneck, a double whammy that makes the evolution of complex life genuinely difficult. We saw that the first eukaryotes most likely evolved quickly in small populations; the very fact that the common ancestor of eukaryotes shares so many traits, none of which are found in bacteria, implies a small, unstable, sexual population. If Parakaryon myojinensis is recapitulating eukaryotic evolution, as I suspect, its extremely low population density (just one specimen in 15 years of hunting) is predictable. Its most likely fate is extinction. Perhaps it will die because it has not successfully excluded all its ribosomes from its nuclear compartment, or because it has not yet ‘invented’ sex. Or perhaps, chance in a million, it will succeed, and seed a second coming of eukaryotes on earth.
I think we can reasonably conclude that complex life will be rare in the universe – there is no innate tendency in natural selection to give rise to humans or any other form of complex life. It is far more likely to get stuck at the bacterial level of complexity. I can’t put a statistical probability on that. The existence of Parakaryon myojinensis might be encouraging for some – multiple origins of complexity on earth means that complex life might be more common elsewhere in the universe. Maybe. What I would argue with more certainty is that, for energetic reasons, the evolution of complex life requires an endosymbiosis between two prokaryotes, and that is a rare random event, disturbingly close to a freak accident, made all the more difficult by the ensuing intimate conflict between cells. After that, we are back to standard natural selection. We’ve seen that many properties shared by eukaryotes, from the nucleus to sex, are predictable from first principles. We can go much further. The evolution of two sexes, the germline–soma distinction, programmed cell death, mosaic mitochondria, and the trade-offs between aerobic fitness and fertility, adaptability and disease, ageing and death, all these traits emerge, predictably, from the starting point that is a cell within a cell. Would it all happen over again? I think that much of it would. Incorporating energy into evolution is long overdue, and begins to lay a more predictive basis to natural selection.
Energy is far less forgiving than genes. Look around you. This wonderful world reflects the power of mutations and recombination, genetic change – the basis for natural selection. You share some of your genes with the tree through the window, but you and that tree parted company very early in eukaryotic evolution, 1.5 billion years ago, each following a different course permitted by different genes, the product of mutations, recombination, and natural selection. You run around, and I hope still climb trees occasionally; they bend gently in the breeze and convert the air into more trees, the magic trick to end them all. All of those differences are written in the genes, genes that derive from your common ancestor but have now mostly diverged beyond recognition. All those changes were permitted, selected, in the long course of evolution. Genes are almost infinitely permissive: anything that can happen will happen.
But that tree has mitochondria too, which work in much the same way as its chloroplasts, endlessly transferring electrons down its trillions upon trillions of respiratory chains, pumping protons across membranes as they always did. As you always did. These same shuttling electrons and protons have sustained you from the womb: you pump 1021 protons per second, every second, without pause. Your mitochondria were passed on from your mother, in her egg cell, her most precious gift, the gift of living that goes back unbroken, unceasing, generation on generation, to the first stirrings of life in hydrothermal vents, 4 billion years ago. Tamper with this reaction at your peril. Cyanide will stem the flow of electrons and protons, and bring your life to an abrupt end. Ageing will do the same, but slowly, gently. Death is the ceasing of electron and proton flux, the settling of membrane potential, the end of that unbroken flame. If life is nothing but an electron looking for a place to rest, death is nothing but that electron come to rest.
This energy flux is astonishing and unforgiving. Any change over seconds or minutes could bring the whole experiment to an end. Spores can pull it off, descending into metabolic dormancy from which they must feel lucky to emerge. But for the rest of us … we are sustained by the same processes that powered the first living cells. These processes have never changed in a fundamental way; how could they? Life is for the living. Living needs an unceasing flux of energy. It’s hardly surprising that energy flux puts major constraints on the path of evolution, defining what is possible. It’s not surprising that bacteria keep doing what bacteria do, unable to tinker in any serious way with the flame that keeps them growing, dividing, conquering. It’s not surprising that the one accident that did work out, that singular endosymbiosis between prokaryotes, did not tinker with the flame, but ignited it in many copies in each and every eukaryotic cell, finally giving rise to all complex life. It’s not surprising that keeping this flame alive is vital to our physiology and evolution, explaining many quirks of our past and our lives today. How lucky that our minds, the most improbable biological machines in the universe, are now a conduit for this restless flow of energy, that we can think about why life is the way it is. May the proton-motive force be with you!