The Cactus Lens: A Clearer View

Until recently there have been 3 main lenses through which to view our overshoot predicament: debt, energy, and ecology.

Each lens exposes a different aspect of the picture, but not the complete picture.

Each lens focusses on different threats, with different time frames, and different consequences, and each lens suggests a different optimal response.

Overshoot awareness varies by lens and group within society. Awareness of leaders is generally higher than citizens, and in some cases this is deliberate and warranted because broad citizen awareness of the debt and energy threats would increase the probability of short term collapse.

For leaders and citizens that see through any of the lenses, their understanding tends to be incomplete, which has resulted in plans of action that will not help, or that make the situation worse.

This incomplete understanding is caused in part because the issues are very complex, and in part because some aspects of human overshoot have no acceptable or feasible solution, and in part because of the human tendency to deny unpleasant realities, as explained by Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory.

Hideaway, a frequent contributor at un-Denial, Peak Oil Barrel, Our Finite World and other sites, recently introduced a new lens we have named cactus, which focusses on all non-renewable resources and the complexity required to extract them.

I think the cactus lens provides the clearest view of what is going on, what we should expect in the short to medium term, and what we should do.

The cactus lens changes what is in the best interests of citizens to understand.

The debt and energy lenses suggest citizens should remain in the dark.

The ecology lens suggests it does not matter what citizens understand because the ecology threats are longer term than debt, energy, and cactus, and because awareness of ecology issues have not and will not improve anything of substance due to the nature of modernity.

With the introduction of the cactus lens, it is now in the best short term interests of all groups: countries, leaders, and citizens, for awareness to be as widespread as possible.

Achieving broad cactus awareness will be difficult because it is very unpleasant, and therefore will be blocked by our genetic denial behavior, however I propose one idea to start the discussion on how we might spread cactus awareness.

Awareness Lens: Debt

Theory:

  • Modernity requires abundant credit;
  • Because most of our mines, machines, technology, and structures require significant up front capital to build;
  • Which requires a fractional reserve debt backed monetary system;
  • Which is now used by every country in the world;
  • Which by design requires economic growth to not collapse;
  • Because money is loaned into existence and growth is needed to pay interest;
  • Which means our economic system requires infinite growth on a finite planet;
  • Which of course is impossible and means we should expect growth to slow and prosperity to decline, as they are;
  • Culminating in a dramatic and harmful economic reset;
  • However modernity will survive and will rebuild until the next bubble pops.

Status :

  • Quite a few citizens see through the debt lens, maybe a significant minority.
  • Most aware citizens assume the reset is a ways off in the future.
  • Some people prepare to weather a storm with cash, gold, bitcoin, or sardines.
  • Others trust or hope that central banks will print enough money to kick the can past their expiry.
  • Leaders understand and acknowledge the debt problem but are careful to not cause panic because herd emotions could trigger a reset.
  • Leaders are also careful to not explain the driver of the debt problem, energy depletion, as will be discussed in the next section on the energy lens.
  • The debt threat is closer and more severe than our leaders let on as demonstrated by:
  1. Social unrest everywhere is rising because living standards are falling and the wealth gap is widening.
  2. Geopolitical tensions are rising.
  3. Democracies are oscillating between wider extremes.
  4. Most countries have historically high levels of growing debt.
  5. Growth has slowed, and the only growth possible now comes at the expense of adding more debt than the growth it buys, which is unsustainable.
  6. No political party in power anywhere reduces their deficit or balances their budget because it’s now impossible without crashing their system. The US DOGE effort lasted 5 months before leaders gave up and juiced the deficit to new record highs.
  7. Central banks work hard behind the curtain to keep our everything bubble inflated, and to prevent any significant correction of stock or asset prices. When I was young it was normal for the economy and stock market to experience cycles. We don’t permit cycles anymore. Today there is so much debt and so little growth that a significant correction will result in a reset (aka crash).
  8. Printing bazookas are used to blast any threat before it builds momentum, like the banking system repo problem that covid provided cover for unprecedented money printing.
  9. Our leaders tried but failed to use covid as an excuse to implement the tools needed to manage an economic reset like digital ids/currencies for rationing scarce necessities, and for enabling negative interest rates, and tried via “The Great Reset” propaganda campaign to get us ready to accept nationalization of assets (aka “you will own nothing and be happy”). They will try again.

Implications:

  • The debt lens implies a zero-sum game: In a no growth world, one country’s gain is another country’s loss.
  • Our leaders believe that a country that succeeds in harming its competitors will experience less damage from an economic reset. The goal is to ensure opponents reset before you do, on the assumption that this will prevent or delay your own reset by gaining control of more growth generating assets and markets.
  • Hence we see the weaponization of tariffs and trade, regime change operations, and proxy wars intended to weaken or capture opponents.

Conclusions:

  • A debt reset is mathematically inevitable and will reduce the standard of living for the majority via deflation and/or inflation.
  • Debt resets are hard to predict and control because herd emotions drive the process.
  • Leaders have good reasons to not want citizens to be aware of the seriousness of the debt problem.
  • Leaders are operating on the assumption of a zero-sum game.
  • In the cactus lens section we’ll see that the zero-sum game assumption is wrong, which means the current strategy will make things worse for all countries.

Awareness Lens: Energy

Theory:

  • Modernity requires abundant net energy;
  • Which is the energy that remains after using energy to extract and refine energy;
  • Because all of our food, water, minerals, technology, products, and services are produced and delivered by machines powered by energy.
  • Diesel is the keystone energy that powers our vital mining machines, tractors, combines, trucks, trains, and ships.
  • Renewable energy is not a solution to non-renewable depletion because renewables require abundant non-renewable energy t0 build, install, maintain, and augment for 24/7 supply.
  • Discovery of new fossil energy reserves is much slower than depletion of existing reserves, and the gap is growing.
  • The quality of non-renewable energy reserves decline as they deplete;
  • Which means net energy is falling;
  • Which explains why growth is slowing, and prosperity is declining, and debt is growing faster than GDP everywhere.
  • We should expect the trend to continue and accelerate.
  • Leaders believe modernity will continue for those countries that have access to energy.

Status:

  • Few citizens see through the energy lens.
  • There are many false energy beliefs in wide circulation including net zero, peak oil demand, abiotic oil, green energy, renewables outpacing fossils, hydrogen economy, nuclear renaissance, space mining, circular economy, etc., etc..
  • These beliefs are nonsense not grounded in sound science or economics, but the issues are complex, and it is difficult for a citizen to determine the truth, especially with deliberate misdirection from leaders, and with MORT driven hope and denial driving behavior.
  • Denial is a strong force that fogs the energy lens because, short of a near zero probability miracle, there is no solution, and the outlook is steadily worsening living standards.
  • Most leaders, with help from their energy aware militaries, understand what is going on, and know the energy threat is imminent. Evidence for this includes:
  1. Inflation of energy intensive products, like food, is high; energy intensive infrastructure is not being properly maintained; energy intensive manufacturing, like weapons, is struggling to keep up with demand despite plentiful printed money available; war is shifting to lower energy methods like drones; and as also seen through the debt lens, debt is accelerating, living standards are falling, the wealth gap is widening, geopolitical tensions are rising, and democracies are at risk.
  2. The EIA this year announced that fracked oil is peaking. Fracked oil is the unexpected savior that bought us an extra decade after conventional oil peaked.
  3. Leaders do not want their citizens to panic, or to spook the stock market bubble which depends on growth, so they do not discuss the energy problem, and work hard to distract citizens with nonsense like optimism for a renewable transition, or by stoking emotions over socially divisive issues.
  4. Trump reversed his no more regime change promises after being sworn in and briefed about US debt and oil forecasts.
  5. Every country with significant exportable oil reserves that is not controlled by the US empire is either under attack or being regime changed including Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and Nigeria. Even friends with oil, or close to oil, like Canada and Greenland, have been threatened with annexation.
  6. Propaganda is successfully being used to convince citizens that regime change operations are to prevent terrorism or drug trafficking, not to control oil.
  7. China is stockpiling strategic oil reserves.
  8. A few countries, like Germany, made an honest attempt to run their economies with renewable energy, but it’s now obvious to leaders everywhere that the renewable dream has failed. German leaders now want war with energy rich Russia.
  9. The UK, having drained its own oil reserves, now wants war with energy rich Russia.
  10. Hail Mary investments praying for a miracle are being made in AI and nuclear energy.

Implications:

  • The energy lens implies a zero-sum game: In an energy scarce world, one country’s gain is another country’s loss.
  • Our leaders understand their country’s prosperity requires non-renewable energy, and that it must be secured by any means necessary, including taking it by force from others.
  • Countries are preparing for war by increasing military expenditures, even at the expense of social services demanded by citizens.
  • Nuclear arms treaties are being abandoned, and the arms race is restarting.
  • Lessons learned during the cold war about the dangers of nuclear war are being ignored, and red lines are increasingly flirted with.
  • It’s hard to imagine how nuclear war can be avoided given that everyone’s survival depends on oil, and the zero-sum game assumption of our leaders.

Conclusions:

  • Modernity requires growth, and there is not enough oil left for everyone to grow.
  • Leaders have good reasons to not want citizens to be aware of the seriousness of the energy problem.
  • Leaders are operating on the assumption of a zero-sum game.
  • In the cactus lens section we’ll see that the zero-sum game assumption is wrong, which means the current strategy will make things worse for all countries.

Awareness Lens: Ecology

Theory:

  • The resources consumed, and the wastes generated, and the habitats occupied, by the large and growing population of humans, is displacing other species, and causing damage to ecosystems faster than can be repaired by the planet’s recycling systems.

Status:

  • The 8,230,000,000 humans, plus their 35,000,000,000 livestock, plus their billions of pets and other freeloaders like rats, now weighs 80 times more than all wild land mammals combined.
  • Humans use 30-40% of the net primary productivity of all sunlight hitting the planet, plus 16,000,000,000 liters per day of ancient sunlight stored as oil, plus 11,000,000,000 cubic meters per day of ancient sunlight stored as natural gas, plus 24,000,000,000 kilograms per day of ancient sunlight store as coal.
  • The sixth mass extinction is underway.
  • Seven of nine planetary boundaries critical for survival have already been crossed including climate change, biodiversity, deforestation, fresh water, nitrogen cycle, pollution, and ocean acidification.
  • We have already passed the 1.5C safe limit and are on a path to a 3+C temperature increase that is incompatible with civilization and agriculture by the end of this century.
  • Biodiverse forests are being replaced with mono-crop agriculture.
  • Fisheries are in decline.
  • Sea level rise will damage many cities over the next century.
  • Glacier loss threatens the survival of several countries.
  • Chemical toxins and microplastics are harming the health of all life including humans.
  • Awareness of leaders and citizens about the ecological problems varies widely.
  • Most people are aware of some of the problems, but also tend to superficially simplify them down to one issue, CO2, that can be fixed with solar panels and electric vehicles.
  • Few are aware of the breadth and depth of the problems.
  • Many people deny the severity of the problems and/or that humans have caused the problems.
  • Almost everyone denies the implications of the ecological problems, and the fact there is almost nothing that can be done to address them while maintaining modernity and our population.
  • Every effort, by every country, and every organization, and every citizen, to address the above problems, has failed, and will continue to fail, at least until something forces an involuntary change to population and lifestyles.

Implications:

  • The view through the ecology lens is dire.
  • The long term implications are worse than those seen through the debt and energy lenses because we are damaging the ability for any human lifestyle to thrive, and are also harming many other species.

Conclusions:

  • Life threatening ecological problems, for the majority of people, are further in the future than the imminent problems seen through the debt, energy, and soon to be explained, cactus lenses.
  • All of the ecological problems are caused by the human species footprint which is the product of lifestyle and population.
  • None of the ecological problems can be addressed without reducing per capita consumption or population, and the debt and cactus lenses show that modernity requires growth, which means the ecological problems are a classic predicament, a problem without an acceptable solution.
  • The energy and cactus lenses show that growth will not continue, and the human footprint will soon shrink, which means there may be an improvement to future ecology trends.
  • Many of the ecological problems we have created will repair quickly when the scale of the human enterprise shrinks.
  • Some ecological problems will take a very long time to repair, and adaptation of surviving species will be required.
  • As will be discussed in more detail in the next section, if we somehow became aware that the scale of humanity was going to decrease in the not too distant future, no matter what we do, then we might be able to motivate ourselves to address several ecological issues that would improve the quality of life for the survivors, such as burying nuclear waste, and protecting biodiverse forests and marine ecosystems.

Awareness Lens: Cactus

CACTUS = Complexity Accelerated Collapse of a Thermodynamically Unsustainable System

The phrase “we’re cactus” is Australian slang meaning something is ruined, broken, or finished, often used to describe a situation where progress has stopped, such as a vehicle that won’t start.

The expression likely originated from the infamous prickly pear cactus, which once infested large parts of Australia before being controlled by the introduced Cactoblastis cactorum moth.

This slang is part of a broader set of Australian expressions for something being in disrepair or useless, including terms like “boonted,” “clapped-out,” “had the chad,” “had the bomb,” and “kaput”.

While “cactus” as a metaphor for being broken or ruined is well-established in Australian English, it is not commonly used in other English-speaking regions.

Theory:

  • Modernity requires abundant minerals and energy.
  • The majority of minerals and energy we use are non-renewable and finite.
  • Recycling is economically and/or technically impossible for most minerals.
  • For those minerals that can be recycled, there are losses in the recycling process that still result in long term depletion.
  • The quality of mineral and energy reserves decline as they deplete, because we always harvest the best quality reserves first.
  • Mineral and energy extraction technologies must increase in complexity to compensate for falling reserve quality to maintain flows of resources. For example, compare modern directional drilling now required for fracking with early oil rigs. Or the giant trucks and other machines now required to haul and process low grade copper ore.
  • Rising complexity increases the materials, processes, skills, locations, and number of people needed to design and manufacture the technologies.
  • Rising complexity requires a growing market to support the increasing cost of designing and manufacturing technologies. For example, a smaller population would not buy enough phones to make a TSMC factory in Taiwan viable, and therefore the advanced chips needed for oil exploration and extraction would not exist.
  • A growing market requires a growing economy and population.
  • A growing economy and population increases the consumption of all minerals and energy.
  • Wastes generated by the growing economy and population create increasing frictions to further growth.
  • This self-reinforcing complexity growth system drives an increase in mineral and energy flows until technology, markets, and population can no longer keep up with growing waste frictions and declining reserve qualities, and a critical mineral or energy becomes unavailable in the quantities required.
  • Scarcity of the critical mineral or energy triggers a system wide technology breakdown cascade because many technologies depend on it, and many other technologies depend on those technologies, via an ultra-complex network of dependencies.
  • The unavailability of many technologies then causes many more mineral and energy flows to become unavailable in the quantities required because the quality of remaining reserves makes extraction difficult or impossible without the latest technologies.
  • This self-reinforcing collapse of complexity, technology, and resource flows is certain at some point in the not too distant future and will result in a supernova end to modernity and civilization.
  • Nothing can be done to prevent this outcome, just as nothing can be done to prevent the collapse of a star.
  • It’s not possible to have modernity without infinite growth on a finite planet which means modernity will be short lived everywhere in the universe.

Hideaway responds:

  • Hence the logical solution to the Fermi Paradox. Species that reach modernity anywhere do not last long enough to detect others, that have also reached modernity, spread through time.
  • Given the age of our galaxy of around 13.6B years, and if it took 3.6B years for the first species to reach modernity, then if each lasted from 100 years to say 400 years at best, there could have been 1 every million years giving a total of 10,000 for our galaxy and none would ever detect another.
  • Even if 10 or 20 had popped up at the one time, just through chance, and were more than 400-500 light years apart, they would never know of the other’s existence.
  • Just by shear chance, some might detect others, but the odds of any one civilization detecting another is extremely small.
  • Say we did detect another civilization somewhere in the close area within say 1000 light years. So what? By the time we tried to communicate back to them, the odds of their collapse is high.

Status:

  • A tiny minority of people see through the cactus lens.
  • The cactus view of modernity has not been widely discussed.
  • The closest work that I can recall reading is that by David Korowizc where he discusses the extreme complexity and fragility of modern supply chains, and the risk of their breakdown with energy shortages. Korowizc advocates building more resiliency into our system, but I don’t think he stated clearly that modernity will soon end no matter what we do, as Hideaway’s cactus lens does.
  • The ground breaking Limits to Growth work of Dennis Meadows et. al. assumed collapse could be avoided by adopting a steady state population and economy. Cactus shows this assumption is incorrect. Any dependence on any resource that is not naturally recycled by ecological systems will eventually result in a collapse back to a state that is not dependent on the resource.
  • Other important overshoot aware people like Jay Hanson and Jack Alpert discuss the certainty of modernity’s demise, but do not focus on the non-renewable resource extraction complexity growth system to conclude that modernity will end in a supernova.

Implications:

The cactus lens provides several profound insights that create a clearer view than the debt, energy, or ecology lenses.

List every non-renewable resource that civilization depends on.

ChatGPT:

Fossil Fuels: Oil, gas, coal, oil sands, shale oil/gas, peat.

Nuclear Fuels: Uranium-235/238, thorium, plutonium (derived).

Metals: Iron, aluminum, copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, zinc, lead, tin, silver, gold, platinum group metals, titanium, molybdenum, tungsten, vanadium, niobium, tantalum, chromium, manganese, rare-earth elements (all 17 REEs), and many others.

Industrial Minerals: Phosphate rock, potash, sulfur, borates, fluorspar, gypsum, halite, graphite, silica sand, feldspar, kaolin, etc.

Construction Materials: Limestone, aggregates (sand & gravel), clay, granite, marble, slate, stone.

Geologic Water: Fossil groundwater aquifers.

Biological/Ecological Resources (functionally non-renewable): Topsoil, old-growth forests, biodiversity, coral reefs, major fish stocks.

  1. The first key insight is that modernity depends on many non-renewable materials, not just energy, and they are all critical for the technologies that enable modernity. Cactus is thus a much wider lens than the peak oil view.
  2. The second key insight is that modernity requires growth, not only because of the widely understood need for abundant credit as explained by the debt lens, but also because extraction technologies must increase in complexity to compensate for falling reserve qualities. This growth requirement is physical and non-negotiable, and unlike debt, is not digits in a computer that can be reset.
  3. The third key insight is that the requirement for growth, coupled with the inevitable decline in reserve qualities, creates a self-amplifying feedback loop for every one of the many non-renewable resources we depend on, which creates many possible failure points, and the extreme complexity and interdependencies of the technologies we use to extract minerals and energy guarantees a catastrophic failure of the entire system at some point.
  4. The fourth key insight is that this growth and collapse process is certain for any system that is dependent on non-renewable resources. This means there is no possible sustainable solution for advanced civilization anywhere in the universe, because advanced civilization is not possible without non-renewable resources.
  5. The fifth key insight is that there will be no recovery of modernity after the collapse. The quality of many of the remaining non-renewable resource reserves will be so low after the collapse that many resources will be unavailable without advanced technologies and abundant diesel, and there will be no way of rebuilding those technologies because their development required higher quality resource reserves. Surviving humans will return to their hunter gatherer origins.
  6. The sixth key insight is that the zero-sum game strategy that the debt and energy lenses inform our leaders to use, will reduce the time to collapse, and will not optimize the quality of life for the time that remains. War, for the last 10,000 years, was a good response to scarcity. War, today, will create scarcity for the entire planet.

Conclusions:

Given that our leaders see the world through debt and energy lenses, they are operating on the assumption of a zero-sum game:

  • My country will do better if I damage the economy of my competitors.
  • My country will survive or grow if I take energy from my competitors.

The cactus lens shows us that a zero-sum game strategy will not achieve the desired outcomes.

Instead, zero-sum game strategies will reduce the time to collapse, or reduce the quality of the time that remains. Examples include:

  • Wasting resources, fragmenting the market, and decreasing efficiencies by trying to duplicate and reshore manufacturing.
  • Making it more difficult to maintain complexity by fragmenting the global trade system through the encouragement of BRICS and by imposing trade sanctions.
  • Wasting resources on bigger militaries that won’t help.
  • Wasting resources on climate change policies that won’t help.
  • Wasting resources by subsidizing renewable energy that won’t help.
  • Increasing the chance of violent harms to many by blaming other countries and/or immigrants for hardship caused by resource depletion.
  • Ignoring international law when it conflicts with a zero-sum goal.
  • Sanctioning Russian energy.
  • Blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline.
  • Restarting a nuclear arms race.
  • Risking disruptions to middle east oil flows, and destroying respect for leaders, by supporting the genocide of Palestinians.
  • Funding a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.
  • Provoking China to withhold rare earth minerals.
  • Provoking China to stockpile oil.
  • Regime changing Syria.
  • Regime changing Iran.
  • Regime changing Venezuela.
  • Threatening to invade Nigeria.
  • Pissing off Canadians so not a one will buy a US product. 🙂

The cactus lens points us to a positive-sum game strategy.

Modernity is a global system of unimaginable complexity dependent on resources, technologies, processes, and skills sourced from 6 continents. A complex component will often travel back and forth between continents many times in the process of converting its constituent minerals into a finished product. Almost every country plays a roll in the complex web that sustains us.

Modernity depends on millions of interdependent components, each with a uniquely complex supply chain, and modernity’s aggregate supply chain is far too complex for any leader, or even a computer, to predict the consequences of disrupting the matrix to achieve a zero-sum game goal.

The risk of unintended consequences is high given that zero-sum game strategies will tend to focus on depriving energy and thus damaging the entire economy of an opponent country.

Plans to reshore manufacturing will make things worse. We don’t have the surplus capital or debt headroom needed to achieve this without damaging something else, and it will be very wasteful of non-renewable resources by creating capacity greater than the market can absorb, thus reducing the time to collapse.

The cactus lens shows us modernity will eventually collapse permanently, taking down every country in the process. There is nowhere to hide, and there is nothing we can do to prevent this. No country will be immune.

With cactus awareness and a positive-sum game strategy we could:

  • Make wise decisions that delay the collapse so we can enjoy more of modernity’s benefits, or at least avoid doing stupid things that accelerate the collapse.
  • Do some things to optimize quality of life until the end, or at least avoid doing stupid things that worsen quality of life.
  • Consider doing some things that might improve the quality of life for the post collapse survivors.

Actions that might delay the collapse and optimize quality of life until the end include:

  • Avoid conflicts and wars that harm citizens, damage supply chains, and waste non-renewable energy and minerals.
  • Stop the subsidy of renewable energy that wastes non-renewable resources and reduces the time to collapse.
  • Stop wasting money on climate change policies that will not change the outcome.
  • Put the Sulphur back into ship fuel.
  • Strengthen global governance and conflict resolution via UN like organizations.
  • Renew and improve treaties to reduce the risk of nuclear war.
  • Remove barriers to trade.
  • Encourage well regulated immigration to optimize global labor.
  • Allow market forces to optimize the global economy for maximum efficiency.
  • Adopt digital currencies to enable fairer and more efficient money printing, and to manage the fair rationing of scarcities.
  • Provide sound lifestyle and dietary advice with encouragements to help citizens improve their health and quality of life, and to reduce the healthcare drag on economies.
  • Fairly enforce laws to encourage law & order and good behavior.
  • Provide open and honest communication to citizens so they know what is going on and why, and no longer feel like they are being gaslit by wizards behind a curtain.
  • Provide meaningful and rewarding goals to citizens, like asking them to volunteer to rehabilitate habitats and soils to help post-collapse survivors.
  • When signs of the final collapse become visible, provide a painless end of life kit to any citizen that wants one to reduce their anxiety.

Notice that nothing on the above list requires a change in lifestyle for the majority, or the overriding of evolved behaviors like the Maximum Power Principle, or singing kumbaya, or sharing everything equally, or eating bugs.

Limits to growth are breaking our democracies. Citizens know their standard of living is falling, but do not understand why, so they vote for the politician that most credibly promises a better life, but leaders are powerless to improve living standards, which breeds politicians that are superb at lying, but not well suited to optimizing a complex problem. Then when the leader does not deliver, the citizen is pissed off, and next time votes for someone more extreme that blames the immigrants or the Chinese, and so on, which accelerates us in the wrong direction. The only way to break this path to despots is awareness.

With cactus awareness we will understand the comforts we enjoy are rare in the universe, are very fragile, and will soon be gone forever on this planet. This could lead to gratitude and care to not cause a premature collapse.

Cactus awareness will create strong pressure between countries, and by citizens on leaders, to not break things.

If we understand modernity will soon be gone for everyone no matter what we do, there will be less need to dominate and win, and more need to enjoy and cooperate to extend the good times.

Humans are an innovative species. With cactus awareness there would be many people thinking about what could be done to buy more time. Maybe we should use this resource for this rather than that? Opposition to change from people who have to give something up might be muted if they understood the change will buy a few more good years.

Some ideas to improve the quality of life for the post collapse survivors will be difficult to decide and implement because many of these will conflict with the goal of delaying collapse as long as possible. On the other hand, if we collectively understand collapse is inevitable, it might be easier to say set aside some forest or wildlife habitat, or bury nuclear waste, knowing that your children or grandchildren might benefit.

Imagine the effect of cactus awareness on philanthropy. What might billionaires with children do with their wealth if they understood modernity will soon be gone? Perhaps they might buy up biodiverse rainforests to protect them.

Shifting from the current zero-sum game strategy to a positive-sum game strategy will be very difficult.

Cactus is very unpleasant. Genetic denial, as explained by MORT, will be in full force resisting cactus awareness.

On the other hand, almost everything going on in the world today is also very unpleasant, and many people are losing their minds because nothing makes sense.

In a strange way, cactus may be less unpleasant than what we are currently asked to believe, because the cactus story at least agrees with what our eyes see, and provides reasons for gratitude when times are tough, so maybe there’s a chance for cactus awareness.

We evolved in small tribes that in times of scarcity had to fight other tribes to survive. There are no attacking aliens to unite us.

The cactus lens does point to a common threat that will kill almost everyone, but most people won’t believe it.

When times get tougher, as they surely will, leaders will have zero chance of adopting a positive-sum game strategy unless a majority of citizens see the world through the cactus lens.

Those of us that are cactus aware should start brainstorming how to spread cactus awareness.

Here’s one idea:

We could recruit the powerful institutions that were created by MORT: religions.

Cactus awareness will be fantastic for the life after death businesses. All religions will boom with growing memberships, donations, and tithes.

Religions therefore could be self-interested and enthusiastic allies for spreading the cactus gospel.

Religions also have the perfect infrastructure and skills needed to spread an idea like cactus and its positive-sum game belief system.

A likely roadblock to our leaders embracing the cactus lens is the big money behind financial institutions that depend on good news for their pump the bubble business model.

I’m thinking that it shouldn’t be too hard to get them on board. The cactus lens doesn’t say everyone has to live like poor monks in a cave.

Cactus tells us the end will be painful but mercifully quick, so those so inclined can party on like it’s 19991 in a glorious bubble until the last day…

1The highest net energy we ever enjoyed was in 1999 when about 4% of energy was needed to extract energy. Today it takes about 10-15% of energy to extract energy, and the ratio is continuing to rise.

702 thoughts on “The Cactus Lens: A Clearer View”

  1. I re-listened to the recent Nate Hagens podcast linked above on trying to find a way to override MPP so we can live sustainably.

    The core idea animating Hagens is that unlimited growth on a finite planet leads to collapse, therefore we need to find a way to use our self-awareness and wisdom to stop growing and become sustainable. Hagens thinks education is the key.

    I shared this stop growth view for over 10 years, and I took it to a higher level by uncovering the genetic behavior (that created our unique species as explained by Dr. Varki’s MORT) that needs to be overridden to achieve sustainability. I showed that more education is a waste of time. Some other method of breaking through genetic denial is required. I did not succeed in finding a method. A solution, if one exists, probably requires a clever biochemist or genetic engineer.

    Then, this year, Hideaway’s Cactus theory emerged and demolished all prior hopeful ideas, including Hagens’ 5th Law of Thermodynamics, and my hope of finding a way to override genetic denial.

    What makes modernity unsustainable is not growth.

    What makes modernity unsustainable is its dependence on many non-renewable minerals and energy.

    Cactus shows that sustainable modernity anywhere in the universe is impossible.

    It doesn’t matter what we do or what we believe.

    If we get our shit together, we might be able to delay collapse a few decades, but that’s the best we can hope for.

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    1. I got Bill Rees to read & respond to the cactus essay. My work here is done.😊

      spoiler alert: He doesn’t think we’ll get our shit together.

      As for ‘cactus’, I can resonate with a lot of the theory. In many respects its similar to Joseph Tainter’s explanation for the collapse of complex societies.

      I lose ‘un-denial’ when s/he says:

      “With cactus awareness and a positive-sum game strategy we could:…”

      and lists a whole series of things that people could do to delay the inevitable implosion and improve life quality in the meantime. Yup, noble ambition. The problem here is the usual one — it’s easy to list WHAT we coulda, shoulda, woulda do/done but much harder to prescribe HOW to ensure it happens. People don’t behave that way. In short, these are theoretical actions and goals; there is no practical way to achieve them.

      https://reeswilliame.substack.com/p/why-collapse-is-inevitable/comment/189954924

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      1. Awesome Chris. Thanks.

        I like Dr. Rees response although I did propose a way to accomplish my list of ideas to delay the collapse by recruiting the life after death businesses that have the perfect skills and infrastructure to spread the word, and which will profit mightily from Cactus awareness, and therefore should be motivated to help.

        Maybe he stopped reading when he got to the hopium section.

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      2. Well done Chris. I posted CACTUS on his LinkedIn post of his essay but got nothing back. I’ve mostly given up on LinkedIn the last 6 months but have posted / commented CACTUS a handful of times and gotten no comments from anyone. More evidence for MORT.

        Everything about LinkedIn reminds me of this song.

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    2. Hello Rob,

      Don’t be sad.

      Why would we want to delay collapse? Why would we want to maintain modernity?

      We can be very happy within collapse and without modernity.

      Bill Rees is right and it’s good that the global dynamic is not in the hand of a few people (even? us 😉

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  2. Apparently the Trump regime is already trying to quietly bail out AI companies.

    IMHO, Not a single penny of taxpayer money should be dumped into the AI rathole.

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  3. A fun Christmas movie. The Ice Harvest (2005) – IMDb

    As the attorney for a mobster, Charlie (John Cusack) has access to some not-so-clean money, which he readily embezzles with the help of an associate, Vic (Billy Bob Thornton). On Christmas Eve, the two partners decide to hightail it with the money, but an ice storm sweeping through the area delays their departure. Stuck in town, Charlie visits strip club owner Renata (Connie Nielsen) and lets on about the money. But the longer he stays, the more trouble builds.

    Cusack & Thornton make a great team in this dark comedy noir. (another good movie with these two is Pushing Tin (1999) – IMDb)

    There’s a recurring mantra in the film. And it’s a cool doomer line:

    As Wichita falls, so falls Wichita Falls.

    I like this scene.

    spoiler alert: The original ending is way more in line with the overall tone of the film. But I have to admit that I do like the happy ending. This quote from director Harold Ramis made me laugh… oh, that goddamn hope!

    In the original ending John Cusack dies in the last minute of the movie, quite unexpectedly. The audience went, “Whoa! That’s so bleak.” And the studio said, “Well, the audience doesn’t need you to tell them they’re going to die. They all know they’re going to die.” So the only thing we changed was John doesn’t die at the end. And the scores went up 66 percent. There was justification, philosophically and artistically, for both endings. But clearly one was more commercial. The first ending said: “If you’ve done bad things in life, unless you take responsibility for yourself, you may end very badly.” The second ending says: “No matter what you’ve done in life, no matter how badly you’ve screwed up, there’s always hope”

    ps. One more recommendation for fans of the oldies. I’ve seen almost all of the classic B&W film noirs except for this one. Out of the Past (1947) – IMDb. Recently watched it. By far my favorite of the genre.

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    2. Three things I have heard recently which may be datapoints of decision makers being pragmatic and acknowledging declining markets. These are also concrete examples of cooperation:

      Best.

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      1. Ah, that bug again. This previous comment was not supposed to be in answer to Stellarwind72, but a general comment.
        It seems to happen, when I write a second comment, just after posting a first reply (the source url changes).

        Sorry about that.

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  6. No mention of overshoot blogs that focus on genetic reality denial and cactus theory.

    https://www.rintrah.nl/things-the-world-doesnt-have-enough-of/

    Things the world doesn’t have enough of:

    -Youtube video essays

    -Youtube video essays about how AI is a bubble

    -Travel vlogs

    -AI art

    -Cryptocurrencies

    -Dating shows on TV

    -Shows about people buying something cheap and selling it for a higher price

    -Superhero movies

    -Found footage horror

    -Steam video games about the backrooms

    -Podcasts

    -True crime podcasts

    -Urbex videos

    -News articles about how climate change is worse than expected

    -People without any background in nutrition offering dietary advice

    -Coaches

    -Humans

    -Cities

    -Cars

    -Parking lots

    -Sketchy Lebara/Lycamobile phone shops

    -Onlyfans accounts

    -Soccer matches. It’s very important we find out which team is the best team this year, rather than during the previous fifty or so matches.

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  7. Light a torch, dark times ahead

    The End of Reason – The Honest Sorcerer

    I really liked B’s essay today. While reading it I was thinking about these three questions: 

    • Why is this happening? 
    • How did it happen?
    • What will happen next?

    Using only one-word answers, what would you say?

    My answers are Denial/Cooking/Cactus. 

    Rob’s denial obsession was the most important piece. And building his website around the “why”.

    Hideaways obsession with energy, complexity & scale is the more popular one and most likely the main driver of traffic here. Everybody wants to know more about the “what”.

    And my fire obsession helped narrow down the “how”. This has the least amount of importance/popularity, but IMO is the most interesting of the three.

    That’s why I think un-Denial is unmatched in the doomasphere. If you know of any one place where I can get to the root of those three questions better, please let me know.  

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    1. I find it surprising how few people are interested in why. There are many unique things about humans that demand an answer: Fire, god, dominance over all other species, extended theory of mind, smart enough to visit the moon but unable to understand obvious threats to its own survival, etc.

      The next big mystery one level down, which Dr. Nick Lane focusses on, is complex eukaryotic life which emerged only once after 2 billion years of simple life on this planet. I think complex life is a bigger mystery than the origin of life which seems to be inevitable on rocky wet planets at the right distance from a star. Bacteria will be common in the universe. Fire apes that build silicon chips and believe in gods will be extraordinarily rare.

      I re-listened to this podcast with Dr. Lane today that Chris posted a while ago. It’s really good.

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      1. I listened to this again. It is great. Too bad civilization and Science will not be around to answer Nick’s questions about feelings, consciousness and origins completely. Although his books make a masterful attempt at doing so and I will start rereading them again – they are all a great delight.

        AJ

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      2. I rewatched it. Oh those stupid goddamn hydrothermal vents. Funny story. Back when I was new to Megacancer, they were bitching about the vents. I didn’t know what they were talking about and thought it had something to do with human geoengineering in the oceans. LOL!!😂

        Nick is so good. He pushes me even more towards blowing up the planet in order to end the Blob once and for all.

        A while back Hideaway talked about inequality in the rainforest with the trees and leaves… I don’t know, I can’t find the comment. But the gist of it was that everything has the same type of absurd inequality that we have with our economic status. It’s a feature, not a bug. Nick was giving me that same vibe.

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        1. https://un-denial.com/2025/07/12/by-hideaway-eroei/comment-page-3/#comment-113395

          Felix, I agree that debt has allowed an inefficient allocation of resources and energy..

          Thinking of something seemingly totally separate for a minute. Cyanobacteria on Earth billions of years ago absorbed/utilised around 3%-6% of the sunlight that fell upon them. This very simple system of single cell plants in a primordial ‘soup’ was far more efficient than a modern complex rainforest at around 1-2% utilization of sunlight. The more complex system wastes more energy.

          I hope you can see where I’m going with this. Despite efficiency gains in a myriad of areas across our developing complex civilization over the last 300 years, the efficiency gains for one particular area leads to Jevon’s paradox of a much wider use for whatever became more efficient, leading to overall increased waste throughout the entire system of energy and resources, despite efficiency increases in specific areas.

          Coal powered steam driven pumps allowed much more cheap coal to be available, allowing the same type of machine to ‘work’ in other areas away from the coal mine, hence increased use of coal, Jevon’s paradox.

          As a part of complexity theory, I’ve come to the conclusion that increasing waste of energy and therefore materials as well is an integral part of the overall process of increasing complexity, just like the increasing waste from single cell early life to complex rainforests.

          All the talk from cornucopians about the future, centre a lot on increasing efficiency and cutting out waste, which seems to be the opposite of what is actually happening in our overall system of civilization. Just like the coal example efficiency gains in some new areas are likely to bring about their own Jevons paradox, with greater use of the new efficiency in other areas and ultimately further use and waste..

          Coming back to debt and especially debt with low interest rates of the modern era, and possible future. We’ve used the increase in interest rates on the mountain of debt that’s built up, to quell growth back to manageable levels (possibly an oxymoron), whenever inflation rises.

          This containment of growth has had the effect of lowering all commodity prices, including oil, while allowing the rich to buy up assets cheaply, as in businesses who relied upon producing commodities, and/or the land it’s produced on etc..

          What happens on the oil patch and in mining of every commodity? They cut back the use of the newer more expensive production, while using up more of the cheaper easy to get oil, gas, coal, minerals, metals etc. This gives us a faster depletion of the easy, low energy cost, energy and materials, leaving the more expensive in energy terms for later, when prices rise..

          When economies pick up again from recession like conditions, the increase in energy production to pick up growth comes from very low EROEI sources, so at some point because of depletion of the cheap oil, we’ll reach a phase where oil production cannot increase as the high cost new oil wont keep up with the depletion of legacy cheap oil, as in high EROEI oil, which will quickly create further inflation in the economy attempting to grow from new CB and/or Govt stimulus of more debt borrowed from the either.

          Debt has been a minor player in overall civilization until it breaks it, because of inability to make repayments when interest rates rise, which is what happens when we get to the point of declining oil production with inflation. The attempt to quell inflation with higher interest rates will again put the expensive to get oil on hold, while the cheap oil continues to deplete with production falling.

          High oil prices during a recessionary economic environment is the likely trigger for a debt meltdown with sales of everything everywhere declining, so a cascade of debt defaults, leading to shipping becoming stalled as no-one can trust letters of credit anymore. Shipping being stalled stops the 6 continent supply chain from working causing stopped production in all sorts of businesses across the globe.

          With fuel, parts, food and other necessities not getting from A to B, the world as we know it quickly unwinds into collapse with food not getting to cities due to fuel shortages, consumable parts not getting to farms and transport companies. Then the trouble begins as the angry population was totally unprepared for any of it..

          Of course governments everywhere will try to stop the meltdown and panic, but what can they do in the face of falling oil energy? They will try price controls, banning sales and use of all sorts of things, ban movements etc to save fuel for farmers and transport of food, but it wont be effective for long if the 6 continent supply chain of parts ceases..

          Emergency actions to suddenly make parts, means the building of factories and machines. This uses more oil and commodities that are suddenly not available, it’s not going to be possible, but economists and governments will think just throwing money at the problem will solve it, when it clearly can’t.

          While oil depletion is the likely trigger, debt is the likely explosive in the chamber..

          The more I consider every aspect of our complex civilization, the more I come to the conclusion it was always just a physical process bound to happen because of easy to get resources coupled with an intelligent ape, to increase the entropy of the planet towards disorder, in a faster manner, just like all other physical processes of the universe.

          I asked AI how quickly the collapse would be of the largest civilization after whatever trigger to bring about de-complexification happens, in the case above high oil price and debt. It’s conclusion based on our complexity and supply chains was weeks to months at best, not years or decades..

          See my other post on AI for it’s findings about our situation….

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          1. Thanks Rob. That wasn’t the comment I was thinking about, but it works just the same. You made me look through the rest of the pages from that featured essay. I found it. 

            https://un-denial.com/2025/07/12/by-hideaway-eroei/comment-page-1/#comment-113072

            As the human population has grown, used more energy and resources plus gained in complexity, overall waste has increased and so has inequality.

            These are both features of increasing size, energy and material use and complexity, not bugs..

            Think of the waste of the process of photosynthesis, only around 1% of the sun’s energy is converted to carbohydrates by leaves with the rest of the energy being wasted.

            In a new rainforest, because of climate change or a volcanic eruption or whatever, lots of species seeking high levels of sunshine will grow, yet over time only a couple of species that can grow the tallest and widest will eventually take most of the high level sunshine, with the others outcompeted. Sure lower layers of very shade tolerant species will grow, but of the primary high sun loving ones, only a few of the original ones remain. It’s inequality up there, while the complexity of the overall rainforest continues to grow.

            In biology it’s just called succession in natural systems as the ‘ecosystem’ develops. We put the prefix ‘eco’ in front of system to sound more authoritative, but realistically it’s just another system. We call civilization a system then think the physical rules of systems don’t apply to us because of our hubris, err sorry, ingenuity.. Whew I caught that just in time…LOL

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          2. Couldn’t have written it better myself, oh wait… “While oil depletion is the likely trigger, debt is the likely explosive in the chamber..“

            Oil depletion leads to higher prices and general inflation, leading CBs to raise interest rates that causes the debt explosion.

            The more I read of this older stuff, I tend to get sad about it, not because it’s incorrect,, but the reality is probably worse than this….

            “The more I consider every aspect of our complex civilization, the more I come to the conclusion it was always just a physical process bound to happen because of easy to get resources coupled with an intelligent ape, to increase the entropy of the planet towards disorder, in a faster manner, just like all other physical processes of the universe.“

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      1. Dilettantism refers to the practice or attitude of engaging in an art, science, or field of knowledge superficially—more as a hobby or casual interest than with serious commitment or professional rigor.

        Key aspects of the term:

        • Etymology: From the Italian dilettare (“to delight”), originally describing someone who pursued the arts for pleasure.
        • Core meaning: Limited depth of knowledge or effort; lack of sustained discipline or mastery.
        • Connotation: Often pejorative, implying shallowness, amateurism, or a lack of seriousness—especially when contrasted with professional or scholarly standards.
        • Typical usage:
          • “His approach to history was criticized as dilettantism rather than serious scholarship.”

        In some historical or cultural contexts, the term can be more neutral, describing a cultivated amateur. In modern usage, however, it usually implies insufficient depth or rigor.

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        1. The Creator was a obviously beginner, a dilettante, a divine deputy sheriff of the third class. If it were otherwise, he would not have set in motion an evolution based on eating and being eaten, on robbing and being robbed, which always ends with a Seneca cliff.

          Saludos

          el mar

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  8. I retract my previous skeptical comments about Anastasi. I think she’s the real deal, despite her fashion style.

    Today she did a deep dive into an aspect of AI that I knew nothing about. A key requirement for AI progress is to increase the connection speed between computers.

    She explains a new optical circuit that can communicate at half a trillion bits per second, and eliminates the 50,000?? tons of copper currently used per AI data center.

    A supernova exit it will be.

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    1. A supernova it is according to AI as well when I punched in the type of numbers she is talking about and the direction everything is actually heading, not the way people prefer it to head, on all aspect of civilization as it exists, assuming an oil production decline of just 3% in 2027….

      If the decline begins in 2027, the “Cascade Point”—where the system loses the ability to repair itself—could be reached much faster than 2035.
      Phase Duration Event
      The Trigger (2027) Months Oil peak leads to a “Global Margin Call.” Stock markets vanish overnight. Export bans on critical minerals (Ga/Ge/Li) are implemented within weeks.

      The Cascade (2028) Weeks A “Missing Part” crisis halts global shipping. Specialized refineries for 9N metals shut down due to lack of maintenance components

      The Seizure (2029) Days Regional power grids fail permanently. The “Urban-to-Rural” migration begins not as a movement, but as a desperate, violent surge.

      The Dark State (2030) Total loss of global connectivity. Human population begins a rapid, non-linear “correction” to the capacity of local wood-and-muscle energy.

      I also asked it to only include reality of EROEI on oil ,gas, coal, nuclear and renewables, not the hopium of unrealistic numbers that leave out gobs of energy inputs.

      It’s things like the urban to rural ratio of the modern world coupled with complexity in everything that really collapses everything. sudden urban refugees descending on a modern grain farm looking for food, destroy any crop, eat the seed, and the idle machinery without fuel, oil and or parts, are totally useless to them, so everything useable, or edible on the farm disappears and the mob move on. There is no time for organising anything, and communication is gone..

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      1. Another great essay topic when you’re health is back to 100%.

        There’s that ubiquitous 2030 date again that pops out of most honest aware analyses.

        I sense something big going behind the curtain of wizards running our world. Gold now $4500. Ukraine escalating. Masks off in the middle east, Venezuela, and Taiwan. Everyone is broke but pretending otherwise. You can smell the panic.

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      2. Dear Hideaway,

        I hope this message finds thee well.

        May I ask what sort of data, numbers and methodology have been utilised for this projection?

        Kind regards,

        ABC

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        1. Hi ABC, I kept insisting the A.I. looked at the reality of where we are heading, not use all the golden promises often promoted as the latest saviour.

          In terms of EROEI type numbers, not to use the research that is specific to only throughput of energy flows, as in the types that show nuclear has a 100:1 EROEI as they leave out too much actual energy use, so it used much lower realistic numbers that account for all embedded energy as well.

          Plus I had it include lowering ore grades of all metals mined, plus including lower oil gas and coal. I even allowed it to include current direction of growth in A.I. being built, renewables being built, but asked it to take account the lower grades of ores being mined, plus the rest of society growing normally as that is the only thing that would allow for the growth aspects to continue anyway.

          I also included an allowance for the real world politics of what actions are being taken by countries to protect their own industries and consider this continues as per historic norms.

          The one parameter that I included that I’m not certain about was an oil production decline of 3% starting in 2027, initially for every year after then, but told it to allow for feed back loops and historic norms when shortages start to happen.

          In other words I tried to get it to use real world situations, no extra hopium involved for vast improvements in whatever, plus to also account for the direction the climate is heading etc.

          I didn’t get it to include all the buffers of storage that some countries actually have as in oil stockpiles or copper stockpiles etc, but the type of answers it was spitting out meant they would only delay things by months at best.

          It’s picked up on the complexity trap of nations that are now trying to be enemies while relying on imports from then and what happens to the trade of goods and parts when politicians introduce export bans, like has been happening more recently.

          the ridiculousness of the current world’s politicians is that they think their country is big enough to go it alone, like the USA, they just have to build their own mines, but forget all the machinery has to come from China anyway, and the reagents from India, Vietnam, China etc.

          The A.I. has picked up that the world is totally interrelated and any shortages that lead to normal human behaviour of hoarding, banning exports of necessary goods and supplies, leads to fast breakdowns in out JIT (Just In Time) world of deliveries of everything, then feedback loops kick in. Also the fact that our civilization is so vastly different to any previous civilizations where we have over 80% of the population in urban areas compared to less than10% for prior ones that collapsed, which means food for cities and hoards leaving cities in disorderly manners becomes the real decline from which there is no return.

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          1. Hideaway,

            I had no idea it was possible to feed so much detailed direction to an AI when asking it a question.

            I speak to an AI like a child. I’m very clear and simple on the assumption that will increase my odds of getting a high quality answer.

            Today my question was, “Why do almost all bread recipes have 2 risings of dough? Why not 1 or 3?

            How do you ask the AI a detailed question like you just did?

            Do you write a long essay preamble before asking the question? Or a list of crips bullet point instructions? Is it one post by you or many small posts in one session?

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            1. Oops, sorry to take so long to get back to this Rob. I tend to have long conversations with A.I. grilling it on many points. It answers a question and I ask it for evidence of A, B, and C and/or I pull it up on something incorrect. the conversation goes on and I often bring it back to something it previously stated, and re question it, or show evidence where it’s wrong.

              It’s possible I’ve trained it too much, but always keep insisting on using the real world as it exists, not make up anything fancy, like mining of asteroids if we have no evidence of that happening etc.

              In discussing the 9n purity of metals for A.I. and other high end machines I asked it to take it to the logical conclusion at some point in the future, seeing as we hade gone from 4n purity to 9n for some metals, to the ridiculous stage of having 15n purity for some applications at some point in the future, to then look at how much energy that would take and the processes required. I had to train that out of it discussing the short term future once discussing oil decline and it stating how hard 15n would be by 2050 to solve the problems with future A.I. I was constantly letting it know we are not going to get to 15n anything if decline starts very shortly, so use the 9n some are using now and others are aiming for as best.

              Lots and lots of this type of back and forth then trying to get it to predict the future on known human past behaviour.

              After this latest round of discussion with A.I. (Gemini), plus watching the latest C. Martenson video linked below, I had this chilled feeling we could be right in the early acceleration phase of collapse with complexity suddenly unwinding due to politicians as much as anything, with oil and all commodity prices about to spike, accelerating the situation, which makes the politicians make worse decisions. The 80% urbanization of the modern world is one aspect that the A.I. insisted is a vast disconnect to any prior civilization and will make the outcome much worse than previously experienced.

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              1. Thanks for explaining Hideaway.

                These conversations must take place over many days. Does the AI remember your previous conversations or do you have to start over and replay all the questions every time?

                I originally found ChatGPT to be the best AI. I’ve recently switched Gemini and it seems to be be giving superior answers. I watched a video that claimed Sam Altman is panicking because his company will soon crash and burn. Deep pockets are required to operate the AI money furnaces.

                I too smell something big going on. We could be at the start of a cactus decline given:

                1) US deficit now so large that printing is required to run the country.
                2) US oil production has peaked.
                3) BRICS is pissed and starting to trade without $USD.
                4) The world can see all of NATO was defeated by Russia.
                5) US is attacking anyone with oil that is a friend of China. Expect a tat for tit by China that harms the US.
                6) AI bubble will pop soon taking down the tech sector which supports the entire stock market.

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      3. Catching up on my reading here, since last bundle. I’m intrigued by those stages of collapse: who wrote that up? Is there a paper somewhere we could read? (trigger, cascade, seizure, darkstate)

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  9. In the spirit of Nick Lane and Deep Time, Andrea P has a new article today that gives a bunch of cool stats, graphs and tidbits.

    I recently sought to clear up my understanding of what constitutes an extinction event and if Earth is experiencing one.

    Is Earth experiencing a major mass extinction?

    Is Homo sapiens the first creature to cause elevated extinction rates? Nope!

    Around 2.7 billion years ago, cyanobacteria evolved. They could photosynthesize! Earth’s atmosphere back then was mostly carbon dioxide and methane, without today’s oxygen and nitrogen. So that’s what Earth’s earliest organisms developed to breathe: carbon dioxide and methane. But as cyanobacteria photosynthesized, they combined CO₂ and H₂O, producing (among other things) O₂. The cyanobacteria were very successful and generated so much O₂ that nobody could breathe. Oops! Biosphere Reset! Voila, Great Oxidation Event. All that O₂ probably also caused Earth’s first ice age and led to Ozone Layer formation.

    The other creature-caused reset was the Devonian mass extinction. Around 372 million years ago, photosynthesizers were at it again! Plants and fungi had made their way onto land and were zealously metabolizing minerals. Those minerals ran off into the oceans. Cue giant algae blooms, anaerobic microorganisms digesting those swathes of dead plant matter, and everybody suffocating again, this time on CO₂. (Volcanic eruptions also played a role.)

    In a way, these would have been a more appropriate metaphor to serve as the premise of Don’t Look Up, rather than a comet hitting Earth. Pixar movie?

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      1. Can you elaborate on that a bit?

        All I’m coming up with in my AI searches is the eruption of the Siberian Traps. And lots of secondary things happening because of the million years worth of eruptions.

        But nothing at all re microorganisms being the primary cause.

        ps. I don’t know about you guys, but I get a different answer every time I ask AI the same question (main thing is there, but different details each time).

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  10. Colonel Wilkerson says right after Christmas Scott Bessent will have to find buyers for the US’s $3 trillion deficit.

    This is now a huge problem because of it’s size, and because of the BRICS shift away from the US dollar for trading between themselves.

    Hence the desperate actions with Venezuela.

    The only country big enough to bail out the US is China.

    The US is in deep deep trouble.

    When the financial crisis occurs, the US military budget will have to be cut in half immediately. A coup is possible because the military may not agree to this.

    My opinion: The price of gold is the most reliable indicator of reality and it’s flashing red.

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    1. There is something very wrong in the gold and silver markets at present, with everyone looking in the wrong direction.

      The ratio of gold price and silver price relative to other commodities is at record highs, as in oz of gold to bbls of oil, or oz of silver to lbs of copper, or oz of gold to tonnes of wheat, or oz of gold to lbs of ground beef.

      If it was just a gold vs currency thing then all the other commodities would also be flying, but they are not. So we are either in a gold and silver bubble or about to get a huge round of inflation in everything else while gold and silver stabilize to allow all other commodities to catch up.

      Here’s the interesting bit, I asked the AI for some links to these ratios and found some good modern charts from various sources, but these were follow on questions from when I was asking it about the timeline to collapse, so it included some interesting ‘other’ insights..

      “The Ratio: 1 oz Gold : 586 lbs Beef This extreme ratio shows a desperate “flight to quality.” Investors are dumping fiat currency for gold, but the “Energy Trap” is visible here: while gold is perceived as “wealth,” it contains zero calories. 1“

      “Export Bans as Standard Policy: At this gold price, major powers (Russia, China, Saudi Arabia) have likely moved to a “Gold-for-Commodities” system. They are likely banning the export of critical metals ($9$N Germanium, Gallium) and energy (Oil/Gas) to anyone paying in “paper” dollars.“

      “The “Haber-Bosch” Failure: If the feedback loops have already broken the industrial supply chain, the $7.50/lb beef price is the last “stable” price before the logistics seize. Once the fertilizer and diesel stop, that $4,400 oz of gold will buy less and less food every week.“

      “With gold at this level, the “Urban-to-Rural” migration is likely either imminent or already starting in “failed state” pockets of the West.

      The Result: People stop going to work at the “Complexity Centers” (the $9$N chip labs, the planning offices) because they are too busy trying to secure calories. The system hits the “Complexity Seizure” where we lose the ability to repair the very machines that might have saved us.

      The Urban Trap: $4,400 gold means the currency in your pocket is losing value faster than you can spend it.“

      I do not agree with all those AI thoughts about the immediate future, but it has picked up some interesting insights of govts increasing bans on exports of important aspects of modernity that can kick off collapse, plus the increasingly reliant population on food stamps in the west getting closer to businesses unable to find workers out looking for food. Also the diesel potential short term shortage is also caught.

      Basically at some point gold/silver collapse compared to everything else, during collapse, or we are in a shorter term bubble of gold and silver, with their price about to fall severely sometime soon so ratios return to more normal levels.

      So it’s possible that complexity traps from export bans of critical minerals and govts spending too much to get their own supply lines going to 9n standard (99.9999999% purity), along with spending on AI to save us, is actually what causes collapse, before we get to energy shortages as the complexity collapse causes energy/food shortages, in a population where the urban/rural ratio is way out of whack to normality.

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      1. I may be wrong but I don’t view gold as a rational measure of currency value. I’d look to food for that measure.

        Gold is a measure of animal spirits like fear and anger. I suspect the biggest force is China swapping USD for gold because they are seething mad at the US for many good reasons.

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        1. At the current ratios of gold/silver to commodities at such record levels it makes more sense for China or anyone else playing the same game to stock up on oil, copper, grains etc with as much $US as they can because of the record high discrepancies, instead of buying more gold, unless of course they are already doing this as well, which I suspect is happening as I’ve read about China’s oil stockpile growing.

          From a market perspective, doing this and selling some gold to push the GP down, and announcing to the world you’re doing it, with some type of small trade deal with US (Donny loves to deal), have the gold price fall hard for a while then start buying again when low with $US again makes clear market sense.

          Of course the deliberate dumping of $US for gold could be a deliberate move to bring the US to some trade talks where the Chinese get what they want but make donny look like a winner in the process. Who knows what games the leaders are playing..

          All I really know is that gold and silver are in a bubble compared to other commodities over the last 100-150 years and every time they have gone exceptionally high against other commodities there has been a large fairly quick contraction of the ratios. I don’t expect this time to be different.

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          1. I question how much of this gold/silver bubble is from governments and how much is just from ordinary Chinese (and other peoples) fear that their dollars (and other fiat) is worthless. My mother-in-law always used to buy lots of heavy gold jewelry as a method of having portable wealth (if you fled your rural village when Mao dispossessed you there wasn’t much you could take with you).

            My personal gold has appreciated vastly more than I ever thought. If I had storage space (and a way to secure it against forest fires, wind storms, floods, and robbers) I would buy 10 years worth of sardines 😉

            I only bought gold as a hedge against currency collapse AND the eventual reconstitution of Civilization – that eventuality has probably disappeared due to complexity making any collapse a permanent extinction level event.

            Let that bubble burst, I don’t care anymore, in fact I welcome it.

            AJ

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    2. When the financial crisis occurs, the US military budget will have to be cut in half immediately. A coup is possible because the military may not agree to this.

      The US spends far too much on defense so, I don’t have a problem with that. I also fear they will shred what remains of America’s social safety net. They could return to pre-Reagan tax rates, but of course the current administration won’t do that.

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    3. I watched another interview with Wilkerson discussing the same topic.

      He sees a piece of the problem (too much US debt) but completely misses the bigger picture and his idea that China can and will bail out the US makes no sense.

      Even if China agrees to buy a bunch of the 3 trillion debt the US needs to sell (to keep an important customer alive), what about next year when the US will probably need 4 trillion?

      And what about China’s debt problem? Insufficient growth and too much debt is a global problem.

      And all of these problems for everyone will soon become much worse with oil depletion.

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  11. Some interesting background from the Gemini AI on the Venezuela blockade.

    Summarize security agreements between Venezuela and Russia.

    In 2025, the security relationship between Venezuela and Russia evolved from a series of informal military sales into a formalized, long-term strategic partnership. This alliance serves as a critical counterweight to the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean, particularly following the launch of “Operation Southern Spear” in late 2025.

    The following is a summary of the current security agreements and cooperation:1. The 2025 Treaty on Strategic Partnership and Cooperation

    This is the most significant formal agreement between the two nations in decades.

    • Signing & Ratification: Signed by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Nicolás Maduro in Moscow on May 7, 2025. It was ratified by the Russian State Duma on October 21, 2025, and signed into federal law by Putin on December 17, 2025.
    • Duration: The treaty is valid for 10 years with an automatic renewal for five-year periods.
    • Scope of Cooperation: The pact creates a legal framework for “deepened interaction” in security, countering terrorism, and “equal and indivisible security.” Crucially, it includes provisions for arms control and non-proliferation, which analysts interpret as a way for Russia to legally justify the placement of advanced defense systems in Venezuela.

    2. Maritime and Blockade Defense (December 2025)

    Following the U.S. seizure of oil tankers in early December 2025, the security agreement has shifted toward immediate maritime defense:

    • “Full Support” Pledge: On December 22, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held an emergency call with his Venezuelan counterpart, pledging “full support and solidarity” against what they termed “U.S. piracy.”
    • Shadow Shipping & Intelligence: The two nations have coordinated “shadow shipping” networks to bypass U.S. naval blockades. This includes shared intelligence on U.S. ship movements and the use of Russian expertise in AIS (Automatic Identification System) spoofing to hide tanker locations.
    • UN Coordination: Russia has acted as Venezuela’s primary security advocate at the UN Security Council, calling for urgent briefings (such as the one on December 23, 2025) to condemn U.S. “aggression” and military strikes on vessels in the Caribbean.

    3. Military Infrastructure and Personnel

    While the 2025 treaty is broad, the physical security presence remains a cornerstone of the agreement:

    • Maintenance & Repair Centers: Ongoing agreements ensure that Russian technicians remain in Venezuela to maintain the country’s vast arsenal of Russian-made hardware, including S-300 missile systems, Sukhoi fighter jets, and T-72 tanks.
    • Wagner/Mercenary Presence: Reports throughout 2025 continue to indicate the presence of Russian private military contractors (frequently associated with the “Africa Corps” or former Wagner structures) providing “specialized security” and training for Venezuelan elite units and protecting critical infrastructure.
    • Ammunition Factory: A long-delayed Russian-backed Kalashnikov ammunition factory in Maracay is reported to be nearing operational status under new security protocols established in late 2024.

    Summarize the history of security agreements between Venezuela and China.

    The security relationship between Venezuela and China differs fundamentally from the Russia-Venezuela alliance. While Russia provides “hard” military hardware and defense pacts, China’s security role is defined by “All-Weather Strategic Partnership”—a model of “geopolitical shielding” where economic lifelines and high-tech surveillance provide the stability necessary for the Maduro administration to survive.

    By late 2025, as U.S. naval pressure has intensified under “Operation Southern Spear,” China has transitioned from a silent creditor to an active diplomatic and technological defender of Venezuela.1. The “All-Weather Strategic Partnership” (2023–2025)

    In September 2023, the relationship was elevated to its highest possible diplomatic tier.

    • The 2024 Investment Guard Treaty: In late 2024, the two nations signed a new treaty specifically designed to protect Chinese direct investments in Venezuela. This acts as a “security through economy” agreement, signaling that any attack on Venezuelan infrastructure is a direct threat to Chinese sovereign assets.
    • The 2025 Zero-Tariff Pact: Announced at the Shanghai Expo 2025, this agreement removes duties on roughly 400 categories of goods. While economic on the surface, security analysts view this as a “life support” agreement designed to negate the impact of U.S. blockades and ensure the flow of essential supplies to the Venezuelan state.

    2. Digital and Intelligence Security

    China is Venezuela’s primary partner in “non-traditional” security, focusing on domestic control and surveillance.

    • The El Sombrero Satellite Ground Station: This joint project in Guárico province is a cornerstone of their security cooperation. By 2025, it has evolved into a critical intelligence hub, allowing Venezuela to utilize Chinese satellite positioning and surveillance to track internal and maritime threats.
    • Homeland Security Tech: China has provided the underlying technology for the “Fatherland Card” (Carnet de la Patria), which the Venezuelan government uses to manage social benefits and monitor the population—a form of “digital security” that helps prevent civil unrest.

    3. Military Sales and “Gray Zone” Defense

    While China avoids the provocative “offensive system” rhetoric used by Russia, it remains a dominant supplier of hardware:

    • Hardware Sales: Between 2010 and 2020, Venezuela received 86% of China’s total arms sales to the Americas. This includes K-8 trainer jets, armored personnel carriers, and sophisticated anti-ship and air-defense missiles.
    • Maritime Evasion (The “Dark Fleet”): In response to the late-2025 U.S. tanker seizures (like the Skipper and Centuries), China has provided “technical support” for Venezuela’s maritime maneuvers. This includes sophisticated AIS (Automatic Identification System) spoofing technology to help tankers reach Chinese ports undetected.

    4. The Diplomatic “Firewall”

    China’s most potent security tool for Venezuela is its seat on the UN Security Council.

    • Veto Power: China has consistently used its veto to block U.S.-led resolutions that would authorize military intervention or international oversight of Venezuelan elections.
    • December 2025 Response: Following U.S. military strikes on “narco-terrorist” targets in the region, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the actions as “unilateral bullying” and reaffirmed that China would “safeguard Venezuela’s sovereignty and national dignity” through a unified front with Russia.

    Summarize the recent history of security agreements between Russia and Cuba.

    In 2024 and 2025, security and military ties between Russia and Cuba transitioned from symbolic gestures to formalized, legally-binding defense agreements. This shift reflects a strategic “symmetrical response” by Moscow to Western support for Ukraine, placing Russian military potential back within 90 miles of the U.S. border.

    The following is a summary of the recent history of these agreements:1. The 2025 Military Cooperation Agreement

    The most significant development occurred in late 2025 with the formalization of a new intergovernmental defense pact.

    • Signing & Ratification: The agreement was signed in Havana on March 13, 2025, and in Moscow on March 19, 2025. It was officially ratified by the Russian State Duma and the Federation Council in October 2025, with President Putin signing it into federal law on October 15.
    • Strategic Objectives: The pact establishes a legal framework for “joint training, logistics, and arms cooperation.” While specific operational details remain largely classified, analysts suggest it allows for the deployment of “virtually any offensive systems” on Cuban territory in response to U.S. movements in Europe.
    • Geopolitical Signaling: Russian officials have framed the ratification as a direct answer to U.S. plans to provide long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

    2. Deepening Intelligence and Police Ties (2024)

    Before the 2025 defense pact, Russia began strengthening “internal” security cooperation.

    • September 2024 Meeting: Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, met with Cuban Interior Minister Lázaro Alberto Álvarez in St. Petersburg.
    • Key Focus: Shoigu pledged to increase cooperation between special services, police departments, and security councils. Russia also offered new lines of credit to Cuba to help stabilize its economy, which Moscow views as essential for maintaining a stable security partner.

    3. Naval Presence and Tactical Posturing

    Throughout 2024 and 2025, the “security agreement” has been manifested through visible military deployments:

    • Naval Visits: In June 2024, a Russian naval detachment—including the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan—docked in Havana. This was widely seen as a test of the logistical and security coordination between the two nations.
    • The “Ukraine Connection”: Intelligence reports in late 2025 indicated that over 1,000 Cuban nationals (some estimates suggest higher numbers) have participated in the Russian military effort in Ukraine. While Cuba has officially denied state-sponsored recruitment, this flow of personnel has become a core, albeit opaque, component of the security relationship.

    4. Integration into Russian-led Blocs

    In 2025, the security relationship expanded into broader institutional integration:

    • BRICS and EEU: Cuba joined BRICS as a “partner country” on January 1, 2025, and increased its activity within the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). These memberships provide a diplomatic “security shield” and financial alternatives to Western-led systems.

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    2. This type of thinking by Msuk and a few billion others is what gives me so much confidence that cactus theory is correct.

      With unlimited energy, materials and spreading across the cosmos, humans in a thousand years would have completely colonised our solar system and have developed fully autonomous space craft to go to the nearest other systems, taking a lot of time as in generations, but only a hundred years or so at a fraction of the speed of light .

      In 10,000 years, we’ve invented so much more, changed physics to our will (some think we are capable of this already), and spread to 10% of the galaxy, always increasing technology as humanity grows and spreads (plus grows in energy and material use). Well in 100,000- 1,000,000 years we are across the galaxy looking at sending self containing planet sized space craft across to other galaxies even if it takes 100,000 years to get there. Fast forward another 10,000,000 years and we’ve taken up residence in local galaxies, with having our planet, or multi planet sized fleets of ships moving together to other more distant galaxies searching for more resources to trade with other galaxies of human occupation.

      Let’s go forward another 100,000,000 years with humans taking up a decent proportion of the universe gathering all useful resources to grow the human enterprise, with huge trade of very exotic materials, both mineral and biologic across the cosmos.

      Is it ridiculous enough yet??

      100,000,000 years is less than 1% of the age of the universe so far, and some evidence from the James web telescope is vastly changing our thoughts on the age of the universe to be much older than we thought, so perhaps the 100,000,000 years is only 0.1% or less of the age of the universe.

      If any of this spread of civilization was possible, then the chances of some other species that developed civilizations elsewhere in the universe would also try and do it. Yet none have been successful anywhere near us that we can detect, as in the Fermi Paradox, where are they??

      We have hundreds of examples of where civilizations here on earth have collapsed, mostly due to energy/material shortages accompanied with human hubris of trying to keep power and position over others.

      So where does the forever growth hubris come from when all the evidence points to civilizational collapse and none ever expanding to the stars?? It’s back to simple denial of a bad or even poor outcome…

      I deliberately left that Freudian slip of Musk’s name in, it’s amazing how getting a couple of letters around the wrong way makes more sense.. LOL..

      It’s Christmas day here, time to give each other precious resources and help entropy on it’s merry way….

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      1. ChatGPT:

        “He’s just taking the piss now” is an informal British (and Commonwealth) idiom.

        Meaning: He is mocking, teasing, or deliberately not taking the situation seriously—often to an annoying or disrespectful degree.

        Typical implications:

        • The person is joking or being sarcastic when seriousness is expected.
        • The behavior feels excessive, insincere, or intentionally provocative.
        • The speaker’s patience has likely run out (“this has gone too far”).

        Contextual examples:

        • Someone keeps making jokes during a serious discussion.
        • A person exaggerates or repeats behavior purely to get a reaction.
        • An excuse or explanation is so implausible that it feels insulting.

        Tone: Mildly crude but very common in British, Irish, Australian, and New Zealand English; usually informal and often irritated rather than hostile.

        Closest North American equivalents include:

        • “He’s messing with me.”
        • “He’s just screwing around.”
        • “He’s making a joke out of this.”

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  13. To correct a slight misconception.
    Some people have described electrical energy as being carried by electrons, but it is actually carried by the electric and magnetic fields surrounding the wire.

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    1. Hi Stellarwind72 I’ve come across this type of video before and can believe some of the electricity is passed along the magnetic field, but only a minor proportion at best.

      Why bother insulating wire if the wire wasn’t carrying the vast majority of the current? I can hold the insulated wire with high current passing through it without getting a shock, with my hand well inside the magnetic field, yet do the same with an uninsulated wire and zap I’m dead.

      Also when running too high a current through a wire, the copper gets hot first melting the insulation, not the other way around.

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      1. You are confusing the flow of electrical energy and the flow of electric current. While related, the two physical quantities are different. The current is flowing in the wire, but the flow of current is not what carries electrical energy.

        Sorry for the late reply, I wasn’t feeling very well.

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  14. Merry Christmas to all my friends at un-Denial.

    Thank you for the company that I highly value.

    Thank you for making me feel a little less insane by letting me know others see what I see.

    Thank you for your many contributions to making un-Denial a higher quality and more interesting site.

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      1. “No wuckas” is Australian slang meaning “no worries” or “no problem.” It conveys reassurance or that something is fine.

        It derives from the euphemistic phrase “no wuckin’ furries,” a rhyming-slang substitution for “no fucking worries,” softened for casual use.

        Typical uses:

        • In response to a thanks: “No wuckas.”
        • To downplay an issue: “No wuckas, I’ll sort it out.”
        • To reassure: “Missed the deadline?” — “No wuckas.”

        It is informal and primarily Australian/New Zealand in tone.

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    3. Thank you Rob.
      You are an excellent host.

      You are not insane. This sentence is very interesting in itself: “by letting me know others see what I see.”. And I can’t help but think of the people who can see even more, or other layers, yet we don’t necessarily acknowledge.

      You may find this odd, but I am genuinely extremely grateful that collapse is now in our vicinity.

      Merry Christmas to you too.

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      1. Charles, we often disagree, but not really on this …. “You may find this odd, but I am genuinely extremely grateful that collapse is now in our vicinity.“

        I am often in multiple minds about this, bad for me and my loved ones sometime soon, whereas if it happened later say a decade or 2 down the track, I least I get the good times while my kids suffer at the end, but more ‘good times’.

        Then I think of the natural world of every other species, where every day of humans existence sends more species extinct and has unknown effects on every ecosystem where that happens, and that’s even before we think of the extra pollution/CO2 sent into the atmosphere and oceans every day.

        Then there is the very long term, where everything goes extinct anyway as the sun expands and heats up planet Earth, long before it swallows planet Earth. How many times has this happened in the universe? Where a planet that sustained life for billions of years was eventually swallowed/destroyed by it’s sun, or a rogue asteroid or black hole? Possibly billions of time already.

        What does any of it mean?? Nothing. Nothing at all. It is what it is, the physical processes of the universe in action with life being one way of increasing entropy.

        So we live for now, the enjoyments of whatever we can find, including a small community of people that actually understand what’s going on, so we know it’s not us going insane in this insane world.

        I’m sure I don’t say it often enough but a big thankyou to Rob for hosting us and to all contributors.

        BTW to prove that denial is real, I must admit I hope I/we/all of us are incredibly wrong and we will find evidence that a long term sustainable population living in harmony with nature for many hundreds of millions of years is possible. In fact I was working on that fervently around 8-9 years ago. I just couldn’t get the math and physics to work, no matter how hard I tried and how I massaged the numbers, within realistic realms.

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        1. Thank you Hideaway 🙂

          As you noted, we often disagree, although we also often agree 🙂 It’s subtle. I like our discussions.

          I don’t think you are wrong about collapse, at least on the mechanistic part. However, I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised. Not necessarily about the long term sustainability of human beings, that I don’t know anything, nor have any intuition, nor care that much about. But, by the phase that has started coming down our way, and especially the first next 20 years.

          The only thing I can say about this, is to offer you to have a look at the map of the world on google map at the widest angle: https://www.google.com/maps/@13.2037552,12.7526065,3z. Consider all the white parts: that strip of land going from Mongolia/China to West Africa (including a bit of southern Europe), through the Middle East, and then the southern part of Africa, whole Australia, the western part of north and south America. This, to me, is the consequence of the disequilibrium between the impact of the human species (with access to fire, cattle and agriculture) and tree growth.
          That’s what Makarieva and Gorshkov, write for instance about Australia in a paper cited here https://bioticregulation.substack.com/p/the-tug-of-war-between-forests-and :

          In Australia, the continent-scale forested river basins ceased to exist about 50–100 thousand years ago, a time period approximately coinciding with the arrival of first humans. There is a host of indirect evidence suggesting that humans are responsible for the ancient deforestation of the Australian continent (see discussion in Bowman, 2002). It is clear how this could have happened. To deforest the continent, it was enough to destroy forests on a narrow band of width l along the continent’s perimeter. This could be easily done by the first human settlements in the course of their household activities or due to the human-induced fires.

          Despite the shortsightedness, I am glad that we are somewhat aware of our impacts. And, that there is a wealth of information available on how to support and speed up the natural restoration process (and not only how to extract and destroy; Pillage, Plunder & Pollute would have said Gail Zawacki https://witsendnj.blogspot.com/p/pillage-plunder-pollute-llc.html). This devastation may be the self-inflicted ordeal that is necessary to open our hearts.
          I think most of the white areas on google map are going to turn green. Humans (some at least, it’s partly a choice) will participate, if only to feed themselves.

          As for me, I have slowly started a new exploration phase by contacting, supporting and sometimes visiting small initiatives in this spirit, especially in desertified areas: http://www.gobioasis.com/, https://www.radio4pasa.com/, https://savagelands.org/initiative/the-first-savage-lands-sanctuaries-in-europe/. It’s fun.

          Best.

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        2. Hideaway,

          Your comments and posts are excellent overall. Just one point. You’ve stated several times that life on Earth is just another way of increasing entropy. Has the existence of life on Earth increased entropy ? No. The autotrophs (plants ) on Earth have caused a decrease of entropy locally ( on Earth ),expending energy from the sun to allow that decrease. The forests on Earth are in effect a giant battery bank of stored energy. If those trees had not captured that energy from the sun, it would have been dissipated into space.. The heterotrophs which dissipate that stored energy are not increasing the entropy of the universe, they are just dissipating stored energy which would have been dissipated anyway, if the autotrophs did not exist.

          David H.

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          1. High David. This would/could be a long conversation on exactly what entropy is, and yes certainly life does create a bit of order in a universe of chaos, but so does the formation of large stars.

            The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that the total entropy (disorder) of an isolated system—the universe—can never decrease. Life creates local order, but at a cost:

            To build and maintain a tree, you take in high-quality, “low-entropy” energy like sunlight, but also other chemicals. Trees create acids that increase the breakdown of the regolith below them. Lightening strikes forests and burns them to the ground dispersing the energy quickly, while rain can wash away the rock broken down to soil and particles.

            Forests and animals are forever radiating low grade heat back into space, while turning more concentrated chemical energy into wastes.

            The overall picture, not just from me either is that life increases entropy. Erwin Shrodinger, Ilya Prigogine, Schneider and Kay, Jeremy England etc.

            Here’s a link to the J England paper. It’s a bit math heavy but short, whereas others are much longer..

            https://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.1179

            I do take your point, it appears as though life creates order out of chaos and forests are just stores of energy from the sun (and a mixture of chemicals as well), but in the overall picture if this was to go on indefinitely it would seem to be breaking the second law of thermodynamics, which according to our physics is impossible..

            On a slightly different topic, new news of moss sporophytes being exposed to the vacuum of space for 9 months, as well as cosmic radiation and intense heat and cold of space, on the outside of the ISS, then bringing them back to Earth where they almost all grew, puts a totally different perspective on possible origins and spread of life for me….

            When I first read this I had to think it was April fool’s day, but checked various sources…

            https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2025-11-21/moss-spores-exposed-to-space-for-9-months/106019194

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            1. I haven’t read those yet, but what do you think is breaking the second law of thermodynamics if it went on indefinitely ?

              Life on Earth, or what ?

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              1. Hi David, Think of all the futurists, who think we humans can go and colonise the galaxy and the universe, build Dyson rings etc to use the power of the stars, use fusion at our will etc, as in Star Trek to the nth power, the fully ridiculous level…

                We are creating order throughout the universe by doing so, taking chaotic systems and turning them into an ordered build to our will, which according to the futurists can go on indefinitely.

                It’s the exact opposite of disorder which is entropy and the second law of thermodynamics. It’s life accelerating order without limit.

                Life is small organised pockets of order created by energy and material gradients within the massive disorder of the universe, but once life exists it is breaking down to energy and material gradients to background heat and wastes by just existing.

                Stars are the same. Massive amounts of gas that form short term regions of order within the chaotic system, but once existing from this short term creation head straight to disorder by degrading all the energy into heat and light/radiation.

                Life and stars are basically the same thing in physical entropy terms. They create short term order out of the chaotic background then disperse the energy gradient as waste heat until they are gone.

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                1. Well, Life on Earth also warrants a separate discussion to the other subjects that you mention. Just to be clear, I can’t see any thermodynamic reason why it can’t continue, as long as the planet is in the goldilocks zone that allows life to exist. The dissipation of energy by life is irrelevant as long as the Sun is supplying the energy to be dissipated. Regarding material constraints: Energy doesn’t cycle, but matter does. The various nutrient cycles, including volcanic activity and geological cycles, mean that they won’t become unavailable to life. If Life on Earth was contravening the second law , it wouldn’t have evolved at all, let alone existed for as long as it has.

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                  1. David I think you are conflating a couple of issues. Life on Earth only exists because of the sun and it’s energy, which is a localized order in the universe, the life on Earth is a subset of that order, but tends towards entropy by giving off heat and waste.

                    Even the huge forests, with all the carbon taken from CO2 in the atmosphere to a higher order, is only using some of the sunlight, the rest of the higher order sun’s rays, are reflected back into space as low order heat. Forests use only around 1% of the energy from the sun’s rays hitting them.

                    Some of the sun’s rays are also heating the atmosphere keeping the conditions ‘ideal’ for life, but if the atmosphere went to zero CO2 and cooled because it couldn’t trap the heat, the life below can’t survive, continues to degrade and give off heat, until it’s gone, again entropy.

                    Life can’t exist and thrive, a small pocket of order, unless there is constant sunlight. What happens to all life on Earth if the sun suddenly stopped producing sun’s rays? It continues to break down giving off low grade heat into space until heat death. Sure some, as in a small percentage has been transferred into fossil fuels, a higher form of energy.

                    Life itself is always giving off heat and producing lower grade wastes, which is the very definition of heading towards disorder. Because life reproduces in the ideal conditions, it hides the entropy happening. Stop reproduction of life and how long does it last?? The reproduction can only happen in the ideal conditions set up by the sun, but once born, cloned, or whatever gives off heat and wastes throughout it’s life.

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                    1. I don’t know where you got the idea that I don’t know that life on Earth, apart from the chemotrophs, is dependent on the energy from the sun . Anyway, I’ll leave it there. All the best.

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  15. My favorite BRICS AI, scripted by ex-IMF Director Paulo Nogueira Batista, is back with another banger worth 2 or 3 views, this time explaining why gold is going up and why the US is doomed.

    I don’t know if I’ve been brainwashed by the geopolitical analysts I follow, but I’ve developed a very strong dislike for the US empire. No offense to the fine American citizens that hang out here, I know most Americans are good people, and that your vote has no influence on the empire’s evil actions.

    I love this type of propaganda in which only the truth needs to be spoken. There is no need for the lies we see in US and EU propaganda.

    This is, however, an incomplete and overshoot unaware truth, in that when the the US gets into serious economic trouble, the entire globe will follow suite, as predicted by cactus theory. Of course there are lots of poor people in the world that already know how to be poor, the western empire has some painful lessons coming.

    Now I think it’s clear why Russia has been so slow and patient in its conquering of NATO in Ukraine. The longer they take, the weaker their enemy becomes.

    Not mentioned was this week’s US seizure of a China owned oil tanker carrying China owned oil from Venezuela.

    Here are a few quotes that stood our for me:

    There is a fundamental rule in central banking that every empire eventually forgets: You can print currency but you cannot print trust.

    China is dumping US treasuries and running for the exit.

    Scott Bessent has to sell 3 trillion of new debt this year just to keep the lights on in the White House and his biggest customer has just left the store.

    The world’s second biggest economy has decided the risk free asset has become the riskiest asset on the planet.

    We are witnessing a phenomenon that usually only happens in failing emerging markets. It is called fiscal dominance. The problem is the cost of the US’s $36 trillion debt. The interest the US must pay has increased from near 0% for the last 20 years to 5% today creating an annual interest payment of $1 trillion. This creates a dynamic in which they must borrow more money to pay the interest on the old money.

    In the private sector we call this a Ponzi scheme. In Washington they call it Tuesday.

    The US Treasury bond is no longer a store of value, it is a certificate of confiscation.

    Empires can survive bad accounting a long time as long as they have trust. Sovereign immunity is the bedrock of international law and means central bank reserves are sacred. Even in war you do not steal the other nation’s savings. In February 2022 the US and Europe tore up this rule when they froze $300 billion of Russia’s reserves.

    Holding US debt is no longer an investment for China, it is a strategic vulnerability, it is handing your enemy a knife to cut your throat.

    The biggest buyers of gold are China, Turkey, India, and the middle east.

    You cannot buy back trust with a few basis points of yield. The bridge has been burned.

    The US weaponized the financial system thinking it was a display of power. In reality it was an act of institutional suicide.

    When the US starts printing money to buy its own debt, while the rest if the world is selling that debt, you trigger an inflationary death spiral.

    By selling now, China is forcing the fed’s hand and accelerating the crisis.

    Bessent is standing in the middle of an avalanche with a cup in his hand asking for $3 trillion dollars. It is not a tragedy, it is a farce.

    We are witnessing the end of an anomaly. For 80 years the US has enjoyed a holiday from history. They could consume without producing. They could borrow without repaying. They could sanction without consequence. That holiday is over, the bill has arrived.

    Do not listen to what the US says, watch what it does.

    You should consider building a lifeboat.

    The transition has already happened, the world just hasn’t realized it yet.

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      2. I learned at Christmas dinner tonight that Greta was recently arrested in London for sitting with a sign saying she supports Palestinians in Gaza.

        Greta Thunberg was arrested in London just two days ago, on Tuesday, December 23, 2025.

        She was detained during a protest in central London while supporting activists from Palestine Action who are currently on a hunger strike in British prisons.Key Details of the Arrest

        • Location: Outside the offices of Aspen Insurance on Fenchurch Street in the City of London. Protesters targeted the company due to its reported ties to the Israeli defense firm Elbit Systems.
        • Reason for Arrest: Thunberg was arrested under Section 13 of the Terrorism Act 2000. Police stated she was holding a placard that read, “I support Palestine Action prisoners. I oppose genocide.”

        An important western democratic government now thinks it’s more important to stop free speech about a genocide than to stop the genocide.

        Think about how dark this is.

        And the cactus shit storm has barely even started yet.

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  17. Another good one.

    Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves.

    We are entering a new era. For the last 30 years we lived in a world of globalization. We believed in one market, one supply chain, one internet. That world is dead. The United States killed it.

    Hideaway, any new cactus insights on this?

    Is BRICS and friends and/or the US empire and friends big enough to keep complexity growth going for a little while on their own?

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  18. I liked George’s post today. The Fraud of Satan Claus – The George Tsakraklides View

    I think most people that begin to wake up end up doing the same thing I did; start railing insanely & unrealistically against overconsumption. At one point I was so militant about it that my mom and brother were hiding their amazon packages just so that they wouldn’t have to hear me bitch about it. LOL. Eventually you see that there’s nothing you can do to slow down the consumption of others.

    I also tried to meddle with their sacred & precious Christmas traditions. I pushed for less presents… forget it. I pushed for less decorations… forget it. But the one thing I thought would be easy to get them away from, were the overpriced Hallmark type greeting cards. I urged my people to just write something on a piece of paper. Less waste, save money, and way more personal and meaningful. Easy sell, right? Wrong! (I’ve gotten them to stop giving me cards, that’s it)

    We did Christmas last night. There were five of us. As expected, I got no store-bought cards from anyone. But the funny thing is I only got one handwritten note (from my nephew). LOL, we’d rather do nothing than have to go through the painstaking process of writing something personable. And I’m not asking for anything deep. “Merry Christmas” would do just fine.

    I did some snooping around after we opened presents. I counted ten cards. I peeked at the back for the price tag. Two were $1.99 and the rest were between $6 and $8. So we gave the ridiculous unnecessary card industry around $60 yesterday. Now multiply that on a global scale or at least an Empire scale. Gotta be in the billions.

    Per AI: Americans spend billions on Christmas cards annually, with sources indicating around $7-8 billion in total greeting card sales, where Christmas is the biggest holiday, and estimates suggest over 1.3 billion Christmas cards alone are sent.

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    1. I’m so with you on this. Cards are an obscene waste.

      The gifts I gave this year were pieces of homemade plum cake made with plums from the farm, homemade bran muffins with blueberries from the farm, and homemade dinner rolls (my own recipe after researching and stealing the best ideas from many recipes).

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      1. Hello dear Rob,

        Merry Christmas to you, too. Thank you for being you, all year long.

        I am so impressed by your baking skills and I am sure the happy and lucky recipients are also feeling very spoilt indeed. Knowing how fastidious you are, I am very keen to ask for your dinner roll recipe as it must the best of the best! If it’s not vegan, I can tweak it for myself and I think others here would also love to try it. Thank you in advance for providing more joy through warm carbs (I am assuming here it’s not a guarded secret!)

        Hey, I think you’ve just devised the antidote to Cactus depression–the making and sharing of baked goods! Here’s a possible prescription–Feel like Cactus? Have a Cookie! Whilst we still have energy to fire up the electric oven (and milled flour, sweeteners, and every thing else in our pantries), we might as well spread as much happiness as we can.

        Love and best to everyone. xx

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        1. Merry Christmas to you too Gaia!

          There’s nothing too special about this recipe except it’s a rich (fat + egg) dough, and is written for someone that doesn’t know how to bake bread, like me when I was learning. I don’t make these too often because they’re not good for a low carb diet, but they are a nice treat once in a while.

          Dinner Rolls

          Time: 20 minutes prep, 3.5 hours total

          Half Recipe (1 dozen)

          • 1 c half & half milk
          • 3 tbsp butter
          • 1 egg
          • 2 tbsp sugar
          • 1 tsp salt
          • 1 tbsp instant dry yeast
          • 3 c all-purpose flour

          Full Recipe (2 dozen)

          • 2 c half & half milk
          • 6 tbsp butter
          • 2 eggs
          • 4 tbsp sugar
          • 2 tsp salt
          • 2 tbsp instant dry yeast
          • 6 c all-purpose flour

          Procedure

          1. Warm milk and butter in microwave to 100-110F (about 60 seconds for 1c).

          2. In a large bowl whisk egg, sugar, and salt.

          3.  Add and whisk warm milk and butter and yeast.

          4. Add flour, holding back 1/2 c, stir with a dough whisk until a soft dough forms. Slowly add up to another 1/2 c of flour until the dough pulls away from the sides of the bowl. The dough mixture should be slightly sticky and soft.

          5. Scrape dough out onto a floured work surface; knead until smooth and elastic. If unsure when to stop, 10 minutes of kneading works well. Rinse the bowl, coat with olive oil, and place dough in bowl. Cover bowl with plastic wrap and let stand in a warm room until dough has doubled in size, about 90 minutes.

          6. Punch down the dough, divide into half (if full recipe), and roll each into a 12 inch rope. Cut each rope into 12 1-inch pieces. Press each piece into a disk, then shape into a ball, and arrange on a parchment paper covered baking sheet (12″x12″ baking sheet holds 3×4=12).

          6. Cover loosely with plastic wrap; let stand in a warm room until rolls double in size, about 60-75 minutes.

          7. Preheat oven to 375F. Bake for about 14 minutes (probably a little longer if not convection oven), until lightly browned.

          8. Serve the rolls warm, or to cool, let rest on the pan for 15 minutes before transferring to a wire cooling rack. Once cooled completely, store in a plastic bag.

          9. Freezes well.

          10. Best if warmed before serving with butter.

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          1. Wow Rob, that is a serious master baker recipe! Thank you so much for sharing that. I love how you detail every step, so much so that I can smell the rolls baking! I know how much your friends at the farm enjoyed your Christmas contribution, baked with care and love.

            It would require more than a bit of tweaking to make it vegan, however. I think for now I will just enjoy the experience vicariously and remember how good such a rich roll tastes. I was a dedicated baker of all manner of delights once, now I just mainly make sourdough bread.

            Hope everyone is having a good wind-down weekend with plenty of yummy food to go around. Here in Far North QLD, it’s mango mania season and I am an engorged fruit bat. Is there such thing as too much mango? We’ll find out!

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    2. Merry Christmas, bro. You’re definitely my tribe as with everyone else here. Whatever Christmas means for every friend here, I wish you that with a star on top! You’ve all been a gift to me.

      My late mother-in-law’s immigrant Czech parents established a card and gift shop in Al Capone land of Cicero, Illinois in 1925. A highly cherished (and mostly likely embellished) story was that her father kicked out Capone’s cronies from the shop because he didn’t like their influence and they apparently respected him enough to never came back to bother him. I find this very dubious and always wondered how my mother-in-law was given a Steinway baby grand as her first piano from a card and gift store income in the decade after the Great Depression, hmmm. Anyway, I digress. Presents, the giving and receiving of them, and lots of them, were a huge part of their life. So there was no getting out of the nearly monthly cringe of sending cards to my husband’s parents to mark all the guilt inducing holidays we’re held hostage by, starting with Valentine’s Day in February (why anyone would expect a romantic card from their children is beyond me, but in his family, that was the case) and ending with Christmas. Of course the year included birthdays, wedding anniversary, even Sweetest Day (that’s in October for you ignorants) and Halloween (only two weeks later, argh!). I met my husband when I was 16, back in 1987. My mother-in-law died in 2019 but we still send a reduced contingent of cards to his 94 year old father. That’s 38 years worth of year-round cards, yikes! Cards now cost as you mentioned upwards of $10. In addition, it now costs extra postage to the States. We squandered a small fortune in greeting cards over the decades but as we all know, if you care about someone you have to give them a card (and Hallmark cards are the best if you really care enough), it’s not just the thought that counts. By the way, I always wrote a small essay with each card (after all, it’s Gaia here you’re talking about! My husband mainly just signed it) I have always felt a slight burden of expectation but since it seemed to mean so much to my parents in law, I just swallowed the mild irritation and we carried on, year after year.

      I would also like it on record that my husband and I stopped exchanging greeting cards of any sort and specified gifts after our first year. We both simply hated the whole superficial imposition, and if we had anything nice to say to one another (and after 35 years of marriage, thankfully there seems to be more than ever), we just said it! And as everyone here knows too well, I could write, and write…

      I did send thousands of handwritten cards (in recent years, cards I printed of my own artwork) to friends and family over my lifetime, and I feel great regret that this has nearly completely stopped in the modern age of emails and texts. For now, I am still able to express what I wish but the death of correspondence using our own hand by our own hand is a human tragedy to be mourned. My handwriting (once considered exemplary, I was always the one asked to write out invitations) has deteriorated abominably due to lack of use, more’s the pity.

      Anyway, that long-winded anecdote was not really meant to be my Christmas (Boxing Day here in Australia) message.

      Like Rob and probably everyone here, I am filled with gratitude for the gift of kinship we’ve given each other, all year long. To me true spirit of Christmas is a Love (you can substitute the word or idea of Life if you like, it is just another way of understanding the same concept) that is all accepting and boundless. From our limited and self-centric view, this love must be always born anew, often through humbling means to touch our deepest human core. We are all one, everything that was and will be, however it manifests in the physical or metaphysical, is the same stuff, for what else is there or can be? When moments of Cactus reality pierces the sharpest, I try to recall this Oneness and it gives me strength to see with more compassion and react hopefully with more kindness. I wish everyone and their loved ones strength to carry on through this journey as recipients and benefactors of compassion and kindness. Looking forward to beginning a new year together, dear friends and fellow travelers.

      Namaste.

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  19. And another one…

    The US is waking up to realize that while they were busy lecturing Latin America on politics, China was pouring concrete.

    Today we are going to look at how the US lost its own backyard.

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  21. US now bombing Nigeria.

    Does Nigeria have any oil?

    Yes, Nigeria has a massive amount of oil. In fact, it is the largest oil producer in Africa and holds some of the world’s most significant reserves.

    Here is a breakdown of Nigeria’s oil status as of late 2025:1. Massive Reserves

    Nigeria has approximately 37.3 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves. This makes it the 10th most petroleum-rich nation in the world and the second-largest in Africa (after Libya). At current production levels, these reserves are estimated to last about 64 years.2. High-Quality “Sweet” Crude

    Most of Nigeria’s oil is located in the Niger Delta basin and offshore in the Gulf of Guinea. The oil produced is primarily “light” and “sweet” (meaning it has low sulfur content), such as the famous Bonny Light grade. This type of oil is highly prized globally because it is easier and cheaper to refine into gasoline and diesel compared to “heavy” or “sour” crudes.3. Production Levels

    In 2025, Nigeria’s average production has fluctuated between 1.4 and 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd). While it remains Africa’s top producer, this is lower than its historical peak of over 2 million bpd due to several persistent challenges:

    • Infrastructure: Aging pipelines and facilities often require maintenance.
    • Security: Crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta have historically disrupted supply.
    • Investment: Underinvestment in new exploration has led to a gradual decline in output from older fields.

    4. Moving Toward Refining

    For decades, Nigeria exported almost all its crude oil and then imported refined petrol because its own refineries were non-functional. However, the Dangote Refinery (the world’s largest single-train refinery) began commercial operations in 2024 and ramped up significantly in 2025. This shift is helping the country process its own oil domestically to meet local fuel needs.

    Has China invested in the Nigeria oil industry?

    Yes, China is a major player in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. Their involvement has evolved from a simple “oil-for-infrastructure” model in the early 2000s to deep equity stakes in major oil fields and massive investments in energy infrastructure today.

    As of late 2025, China’s presence is defined by three main pillars:1. The Big Three State Oil Companies

    All three of China’s national oil companies (NOCs) have significant assets in Nigeria:

    • CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation): This is the most active Chinese company in Nigeria. Its crown jewel is a 45% stake in the massive OML 130 deepwater field (which includes the Akpo and Egina fields). As of late 2025, CNOOC continues to expand its footprint, participating in Nigeria’s recent bid rounds for new deepwater blocks.
    • Sinopec: In 2009, Sinopec acquired the Canadian company Addax Petroleum for over $7 billion, which gave them control over several lucrative Nigerian oil blocks. While there have been some legal disputes over license renewals in recent years, Sinopec remains a key stakeholder.
    • CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation): While CNPC has recently focused more on neighboring countries like Niger and Chad, it still maintains exploration rights in the Chad Basin and Niger Delta.

    2. The $20 Billion Strategic Partnership (2025)

    In July 2025, the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership (NCSP) announced a massive $20 billion investment commitment from Chinese firms. While this spans multiple sectors, a significant portion is dedicated to:

    • Energy Infrastructure: Modernizing aging pipelines and building new gas-to-power facilities.
    • Downstream Processing: Partnering on modular refineries to help Nigeria reduce its dependence on imported fuel.

    3. Natural Gas and “The Decade of Gas”

    China has shifted much of its recent focus toward Nigeria’s natural gas reserves (the largest in Africa).

    • AKK Pipeline: Chinese banks and contractors (like CPP and Brentex) have been instrumental in the construction of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, a $2.8 billion project intended to transport gas to northern Nigeria for industrial use.
    • CNG and Green Tech: In late 2025, Nigeria signed MoUs with Chinese firms (like YJT) to localize the manufacturing of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) equipment and electric vehicle charging infrastructure, helping Nigeria pivot its transport sector away from expensive petrol.

    4. Recent “Super Grid” Funding (2025)

    As of October 2025, the Nigerian government is in advanced negotiations with China EximBank for a $2 billion loan to build a “super grid.” While this is an electricity project, it is fueled by Nigeria’s gas resources and is designed to stabilize the power supply for the very industrial zones where Chinese and Nigerian oil interests intersect.

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  22. Expect another attack on Iran.

    Who does Iran export oil to?

    In 2025, Iran’s oil export market is characterized by extreme concentration.1 Due to ongoing U.S. sanctions, Iran has moved away from its traditional pre-2018 buyers (like Japan, South Korea, and most of Europe) and now relies almost exclusively on a small group of countries willing to bypass international restrictions.2

    The following table breaks down Iran’s primary oil export destinations based on recent 2024–2025 data:

    China ~90% – 95% The dominant buyer. Purchases are mostly made by small, independent refineries (“teapots”) in Shandong province.

    Syria ~3% – 6%A long-standing political ally; receives oil mainly to support the Assad government, often through state-to-state credit lines.

    United Arab Emirates~2% – 3% Primarily acts as a transshipment hub. Oil is often blended or relabeled in ports like Fujairah before being sent elsewhere.

    Venezuela~1% A partner in “sanction-busting” trade. Iran sends light oil and condensate to help Venezuela dilute its heavy crude for processing.

    This geopolitical analysis gig is a piece of cake.

    I could be far more accurate at making predictions than all the “experts”.

    Too bad I’m not charismatic or I’d start a highly profitable YouTube channel.

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      1. At the risk of foregoing fame and riches by giving away my secrets, go to a good AI like Gemini, and ask it which countries export oil to China.

        That will tell you where to expect attacks.

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    2. I’m cacking myself from your sense of humour. Too bad the subject is no laughing matter. Something wicked this way comes, and the world is waking up and getting spooked. Gold and silver shooting into the stratosphere, US debt already way past that and no way to pay the piper. The one thing that will kick the can down the road a bit further is getting ourselves officially into a long war, and that will be the mechanism for repositioning the remaining players on the resource board.

      The Moody Blues’ Gemini Dream is ear-worming its way through my head since you mentioned AI.

      Let’s ask it if 2026 will be the Year of the Cactus.

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  23. The problem isn’t overshoot. It’s that we’re overshooting without enough love.

    LOL. This Lewis guy moves higher up on my favorites list every time I read something new from him.

    A Calmer Way Forward – by Lyle Lewis – Lyle’s Substack

    ps. Guess who recently came crawling back? Renaee. LOL, she made it one whole month. Not sure if she wants to get back to posting comments here or if she might be a little embarrassed. (Renaee, I promise you’ll be welcomed back with open arms.❤️)

    She sent me a few quotes from some Lyle Lewis interviews. I’m definitely gonna read his new book when it comes out.

    When I started writing my book, I thought the Sixth Mass Extinction started with the megafaunal extinctions of Australia and the Americas and Europe, and at the time, I thought that was 20,000 to 30,000 years ago. But by the time I’d done the research on my book, and by the time my book was published, I felt certain that the Sixth Mass Extinction started probably 250,000 years ago, which was about the time Homo sapiens became a species.

    But in the year and a half since my book was published, I have come to the conclusion that the Sixth Mass Extinction started between 2.5 and 3 million years ago. I’m actually kind of rewriting the first chapter in my book on the history, because I’ve learned a lot of new information, and also just have time to think about how it all kind of fits together. And it’s really kind of a fascinating story. 

    People have a lot of difficulty moving back beyond what most humanity considers ancient history. It’s kind of like a jigsaw puzzle more than anything else because you’ve got paleontologists, archeologists, evolutionary ecologists trying to put this together, but many of the pieces are missing and will always be missing. To put it all to together requires extrapolation, imagination, curiosity, experience, and a lot of persistence to try to figure out what’s going on.

    We love to romanticise our ancestors. We picture them living in harmony with nature, believing they were wise and balanced and peaceful in a way we have somehow lost. And it’s comforting but it’s completely wrong. Ancient people were people. They quarrelled, over hunted, over fished, and adapted just like we do. Sometimes brilliantly but sometimes disastrously.

    We avoid the truth that we have always been complicated and diverse. We re-engineer our evolutionary past. We call ourselves hunters, noble predators, apex strategists, when in reality our only success came as scavengers and opportunists. 

    We love to picture ourselves as eagles not buzzards. But nature doesn’t care about glamour. It only rewards what works. And what worked for us and what still works is cooperation born from vulnerability. We survived not because we were fearless but because we were afraid. We learned to think together, in order to out wit predators that saw us as food. 

    That’s the part of human history we still can’t admit, that we evolved as prey. And our sociality, our empathy, even our intelligence came from fear, not dominion. But the fear doesn’t fit the story very well. And so we rearrange the facts and romanticise our past. And that’s how we cope with the present. It helps us cope with guilt and softens the edges of history and gives us a way to keep believing in ourselves. 

    But there is a cost to doing that. And when we idealise our ancestors, we turn real people with real complexity into symbols. And in doing so we lose the ability to see ourselves clearly. We like to think that we have evolved beyond myth, but myth is how we organise memory.

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    1. Nice find.

      “At the end of the day, the planet doesn’t need fewer people or less consumption,” Moonwater explained. “It needs us to feel better about ourselves. All ecological limits can be overcome with the correct values.”

      Attendees departed the retreat visibly uplifted, noting that while ecosystems continue to collapse globally, the collective vibe felt noticeably lighter.

      Most then climbed into their large SUVs, many adorned with COEXIST decals and rooftop yoga mats, and drove off into the desert, confident that the Earth had received the message psychically.

      You can see the fear/prey instincts here whenever a cougar is spotted anywhere near people. We immediately send out the tracking dogs and kill it. It’s not like there’s surplus of cougars. In 65 years of walking in the woods I’ve never seen one, and unless I left a small child alone in the woods, or had an unleased small dog, there’s near zero risk.

      Don’t make Renaee feel bad. Lots of people come and go. This shit is depressing. Only crazy people operate and regularly frequent blogs about cactus, MPP, genetic denial, and fire apes.

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    2. The problem isn’t overshoot. It’s that we’re overshooting without enough love.

      Is Lyle Lewis jumping the shark? I think that this kind of thinking is anthropomorphizing the situation we’re living in.

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      1. C’mon now. I would never endorse an article like that if it was serious.

        The best satire in the world is if you can’t tell whether the satirist is joking or not.

        Sam Mitchell is kind of grumpy in this video because he got duped by Lyle.😂

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  25. Just a heads up that I’m getting heat from the ex-IMF Director Paulo Nogueira Batista on X for spreading those BRICS AI videos that I assumed were scripted by him.

    Apparently he did not authorize the videos.

    I explained to him don’t care if the videos are made by an AI, I only care if the source and content is accurate.

    I asked him if the content is wrong and if so where but he has not responded.

    Bottom line is, the videos may have been scripted by someone else.

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    1. First time I’ve seen an interview with Batista.

      Listening to him first hand tells me it’s likely he wrote essays that were used as scripts for the AI videos above, even if he did not authorize them. This means I will continue to trust the content of the BRICS AI channel.

      The next time there is a financial crisis, the US dollar will not be the safe haven it’s been in the past.

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  26. Pretty good financial update by Chris today.

    The big points that stood out for me:

    • Gold price has excellent correlation with government interest expense.
    • US is back printing money ($36 billion in last 10 days).
    • The electricity growth required to sustain the AI bubble (assuming AI works and generates revenue as hoped) is impossible, meaning the AI bubble us guaranteed to pop.
    • Peak oil in the US is now.

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    1. I am now part of a committee in Norway working on stockpiling anesthetic medication. I am just a frontline worker, but they want inputs. What to say? The problem is of course Liebligs law. What the minimum factor? I cant say that food is THE problem. This is from a Norwegian newspaper. “True self-sufficiency is not the raw materials in the field, but the sum of fertilizer, seeds, feed, diesel, pesticides, spare parts, logistics, data systems, and labor.”

      They estimate a food self insuffiency for 0-5 % , “if imports, logistics, and input factors fail simultaneously, Norway’s real food preparedness is at 0–5 percent. For vegetable seeds, preparedness is down to 1–3 percent.”

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  27. I found that latest post by A. Makarieva about MPP fascinating. She explains how life avoids being decimated by the big consumers: https://bioticregulation.substack.com/p/the-small-and-the-big-lifes-fundamental.

    Life has existed for about four billion years. If it had followed the Maximum Power Principle, this would suggest that the principle does not conflict with long-term persistence. On the other hand, as we can see from the example of our own species, which consumes energy at an extreme rate while destroying its surroundings, the Maximum Power Principle does conflict with persistence. This leads to the conclusion that life has not followed this principle, and that those living systems that did choose to follow it did not persist. This is the perspective I outline below, and I offer it for discussion.

    It contains nice graphs relating energy with body mass. Spoiler: we just can’t lay under a tree and absorb whatever falls down at us 🙂

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    1. I haven’t read the paper yet but I would have drawn a different conclusion.

      Under normal circumstances the capabilities of competing species improve in lockstep thus preventing one species from dominating and destroying the system.

      Only rarely, like when a bacteria learns to harness photons and produces poisonous waste oxygen, or when an ape evolves an extended theory of mind with a belief in god, is the balance upset and a catastrophe ensues as it executes the MPP without effective competition.

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      1. I don’t know. Her arguments are from a different perspective. Maybe you can comment directly on A. Makarieva’s substack. It would make for an interesting discussion.

        In fact, I think an open conversation between you, Hideaway and her would be interesting. I may be wrong, but the way I understand it, I am not sure she considers fast collapse in her thinking. So the main issue for her is how we collectively decide to treat primary forests (in international/national law). Whereas, I sense Hideaway underestimates the role of and possibilities of the biosphere (if not clobbered by a clueless species). But, they would most probably both agree on the idea that humanity can wipe the remaining forests in the blink of an eye on its way to extinction.
        I am the only fool who thinks two disasters cancel each other out. Fast collapse stops destruction in its tracks (because not economically viable) and human beings are kind of forced to collaborate with each other and do regeneration and preservation, if they want to not crash prematurely the system that sustains them. (the gliding strategy 🙂

        If the conversation doesn’t happen, maybe I will have AI simulate it for my entertainment 🙂 I hope it has enough data collected from the respective sites to render everybody faithfully 🙂 I doubt it will have the wit of a real encounter of minds, though.

        Best.

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        1. I scanned her essay and don’t think I’ll engage with her. She’s too far in the Hagens’ “we can learn to be better” camp for me to have any influence on her.

          I seem to be in the minority in believing we should extend modernity as long as possible. You, Hideaway, paqnation, AJ, Dr. Rees, and others think we should collapse as fast as possible so that less damage is done to the ecosystems that will be required by surviving humans and other species.

          I think cactus is likely to destroy almost everything on the way down so it doesn’t matter if we collapse sooner or later. Given how rare and short lived modernity is everywhere in the universe, we should enjoy it as long as possible.

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          2. Rob, this argument of Hagen’s and many many others of “we can learn to be better”, I also find unbelievable, as it’s really stating we want humans to become something other than humans. I find myself asking what do you want us to become?? yeast in a bucket? Still has the same effect on resources….

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            1. That’s why I really like that full Lyle Lewis quote from above that starts out with: 

              We love to romanticise our ancestors. We picture them living in harmony with nature, believing they were wise and balanced and peaceful in a way we have somehow lost. And it’s comforting but it’s completely wrong…

              Lyle is maybe the best I’ve seen at chopping down the noble savage myth. And he does it in a Carl Sagan kind of way. Sagan could rip apart your religious views without ever offending you.

              My take is that the native american worshippers and the “we can learn to be better” crowd are in love with a fleeting moment in time. That’s all it is. And I know they’re not wanting to take it back to the werewolf days. A million years ago or whatever. No, they want something within the sapien realm. And I’d bet more like 12kya to be exact. They probably equate that timeframe to pre-Columbus america. LOL, I know I did when I was inflicted with this disease.😊

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          3. Rob, … “I seem to be in the minority in believing we should extend modernity as long as possible.“

            Upthread I wrote a bit about this and do have varying thoughts on it. Perhaps my actions speak louder than my thoughts as I’m about to install more solar and batteries for our property after long thinking is it the right thing or the wrong thing to do. More of our own solar, just adds a bit of time for our group or whoever inherits it, but keeps us with power as the grid either gets too expensive or starts to collapse in the initial stages down.

            I suspect that even Charles’s trying to be self sufficient is in similar vein even though we don’t often recognize it.

            I think Douglas Adams had the answer to the meaning of life all along, just a number, no real meaning at all.

            BTW the latest Koala that I had to remove from the middle of the road last week got a bit angry at me and scratched my arm as I was trying to save it from being run over. LOL. It doesn’t mean I’ll stop trying to get them off the road, gently, just have to adjust my method..

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            1. Yes, the answer to everything is 42.

              I imagine my sardines will be difficult to enjoy knowing each can that disappears brings me closer to starvation. I’ll have to wash them down with some homemade vodka.

              Those of us in the Koala-free north would love you to post a photo.

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            2. Hello Hideaway,

              I suspect that even Charles’s trying to be self sufficient is in similar vein even though we don’t often recognize it.

              (frown)

              I did not like this sentence of yours: it felt booby trapped. A futile attempt to cast me in your mental world.

              But still, to answer the question you did not ask: no, I am not. Yes, I have incorporated food self-sufficiency in my goals (the Fukuoka way). That’s about it. I am more interested in creating buffers of nature where other beings (trees, wild animals…) can live their way and then gift me in return, if they wish. And they do, by letting me perceive, see, hear, touch, smell and maybe some day even taste 🙂 them.

              So, materially, I have been on a slow but steady gliding descent for quite a while now. Not trying to do anything particular to extend the run. Slowly discarding that which is superfluous. The reason is simple: I dislike modern living. I feel it makes me soft, it makes me sick, it makes me lonely, it makes me agressive and guilty, it disconnects, it imprisons and all it provides are superficial short term satisfaction boosts to the lowest parts of my being.

              This doesn’t make me anyone particular: there is an incredible variety of ways of living a human life. Many more radical than myself, who am still somewhat entangled in modern life. The fact that they are not represented here, does not mean they do not exist, just that they are further away from you.

              However, every step I take feels right to me. It brings me joy.

              I think Douglas Adams had the answer to the meaning of life all along, just a number, no real meaning at all.

              So have you decided, for yourself.

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          4. Hello Rob and friends,

            Add me to that list of those who think/want collapse to happen sooner than later. We have already been enjoying modernity as long as possible. Whilst we did not know it until viewed through the cactus lens but these last 50 years or so have been our extended swan song, for one reason or another we’ve managed to enjoy encore after encore until now, the fat lady is about to belt it all out. It’s ever more human hubris to expect that we can/should enjoy our self-created indulgence called technological modernity even more at the expense of every other living creature and non-living system on this planet once free from the theory of mind, opposable thumbs, fire, and creating our own god. For our modern lifestyle, this has already been our overtime, and the buzzer is about to ring for good.

            I cannot conscionably want to continue longer in this manner purely for my own enjoyment (also being aware that there is no longer term future in any case) whilst knowing that doing so will destroy however many more football fields of forest per second, push however many known and unknown species over the brink into extinction, and raise the atmospheric temp even a fraction of a percent higher than the biosphere can absorb. That does not balance for me, if it is just so we can collectively enjoy ourselves a bit longer, whilst all other species of life have to suffer longer, too.

            Do you know what brings me to tears, the pure injustice of it all for all other life forms! After successfully being able to adapt through millions of years of whatever geological and biological challenges, it just kills me that a penguin doesn’t know why or what else it can do to save its chick from drowning because the ice is now melting too fast. Every species on earth is working harder at trying to survive, expending precious energy and their one life, and not knowing why it is failing more and more. Surely we can feel their angst as this is happening to us as well, but we are also the cause when all others are the victims. If only the depths of our shame could match the injury we have wrought.

            Am I buggin’ you? I do mean to bug ya!

            If we are to use our remaining time to try to mitigate our damage, then it is justified to ask for a further stay of execution. I firmly believe that all our available resources should first be used to decommission all our nuclear facilities whilst we still have the technology to do so, as the potentially biologically disastrous legacy would affect whatever life remaining, including those humans who may be blessed enough to create the new regenerative earth and lifestyle that is Charles’ vision. But I am Gemini dreaming, this is a thought experiment only. We are not about to change our course of action before the course is changed for us. Of all the outcome possibilities we think/hope/pray will happen, it does not change the probability of the one already happening. Cactus is coming, ready or not.

            I have thought a lot about what would be the most equitable supernova exit for the modern human enterprise. And not surprisingly, my final analysis does require the boon from our star. A spectacular solar storm on par with the Carrington Event would be able to decapitate our modern leviathan, instantly ending all hope of recourse. Those who rely most on the electrical grid connect would most likely have been the ones to have enjoyed most of the fruits of modernity, thus would suffer the after effects most keenly, but hopefully not for long. The populations that are used to doing their own hard labour at subsistence level should be able to limp on a bit longer, and perhaps it is from this group that the new human will arise. The animal and plant kingdom, innocent beneficiaries of the sun’s light, which is all they have ever asked for and responded to in countless myriad ways, in the full glory of evolution–shall be unharmed. Every single species will benefit from this scenario, by the ending of our dominance on the planet, and the subsequent and permanent diminishment of our numbers. May the sun that giveth life choose the time and manner of our undoing. We are still in the solar maximum cycle, every day is a second chance.

            However the collapse scenario, in addition to the physical waste and chemical pollution we will have left (but at least stopped producing), there is fly in the ointment, the sting in the tail–the not so minor consequence of widespread nuclear contamination once we cannot service these nuclear facilities. This will happen whatever way collapse goes, which is why I think the most pressing thing we can do for the remaining time we have left is try to contain as much as we can now.

            I live a moral dilemma every day now. How do I claim my place as one of the 8 billion, nay, one of the golden billion of my species, and what is the reckoning that I must accept? Every day I feel the urgency that I must make the time left worthwhile–to earn my place here, bring some joy, do something that will reduce suffering now or later, for more than myself and family, more than my species. Most days I feel that doesn’t balance the scale but I honour the accompanying remorse and regret as guests that I have invited into my heart. I am grateful for life and the wonder of it all, may this be my first and last conscious thought every day that remains to me.

            Thank you friends for sharing this journey with me. Some of my contributions here are an inner dialogue that I have with myself, and I am always amazed and humbled that my thoughts resonate with some here.

            Go well and gently into the new year. Love and peace to everyone.

            Namaste.

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                  1. Wow. You both make me feel that I could die happy now knowing my life has been worth it. Yep, saving one ass at a time, no truer or higher mission can one hope for!

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            2. Dear Gaia gardener,

              I live a moral dilemma every day now.

              Please don’t. You don’t need to. This feeling of guilt is not warranted.

              I had a colleague, who became a friend, after we rode the bus every evening back home and chatted. He used to tell me that there is not a single human being too many. At the time, I didn’t understand the depth of his wisdom.

              And then, I wrote a longer answer with detailed explanations 🙂

              But then, I thought, maybe, you are aware of everything I was going to say. And you simply wanted to let it out a bit to a friendly audience.

              So, I will just end my first degree diatribe now and let you know I listened to your words. Please, if you can, don’t stay too long in that state of mind. It’s not healthy for you and unnecessary 🙂

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              1. Bless you and thank you Charles for your constant care. I do hear and see you, too, most of the time! I am fine, really. I choose to want to live with these kind of thoughts because that is part of how I feel most alive and connected with the oneness. Sometimes I have to fully immerse myself into this illusion to taste the experience, the bitter along with the sweet. In anycase, it’s not something that I can change, rather it’s been what I’ve been changing into all my life because this is the current state of my being now. I know you are a great one for accepting us as we are. I have had (and am still having!) an amazing life, never doubt that I have cherished it so.

                All the best to you and your family. I know you will always find it in everything.

                Namaste, friend.

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                1. Ah, OK.

                  Thank you for the explanation. I think you already told me (at least) once. But, I only understood now.

                  Honestly, I don’t see the point. But that’s me, not you. So, yes 🙂

                  Best.

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        2. I did go and have a read and found information all over the place. She tends to ignore intergenerational influence and reproduction rates that are important aspects of life, plus she attributes a well known biologic law, Kleiber’s Law with the work of the Santa Fe institute that has shown human settlements have a tendency to follow Kleiber’s law as well. (scale energy consumption laws, well proven for consumers of stock). Consumers of energy flows also follow Kleiber’s law just at different rates, with unicellular plants acting slightly differently.

          Right at the end she really lost me with this…. “Trees are not a resource.” Tell that to a group of humans freezing in the cold watching their children suffer, when they have the ability to keep the group warm with a simple fire, while keeping large predators away (not that we have many left these days), with the same fire…

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  28. I love that guy:

    He speaks about his journey, gardening and how he selects his own seeds.

    Victory comes not from quarreling with evil, but from pursuing what we love.
    I am slow learner 🙂

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  30. China is angry at the US for claiming the covid virus originated in the Wuhan lab.

    Is China mad because they are embarrassed about a mistake they made at the Wuhan lab?

    Or is China mad because the US did not acknowledge that the covid virus technology was transferred from a US lab to the Wuhan lab to circumvent their own gain of function laws, and that the US funded research at the Wuhan lab?

    Gemini:

    The tension between China and the U.S. over the origins of COVID-19 involves a complex mix of geopolitical posturing, scientific disagreement, and disputed historical facts. Both scenarios you mentioned touch on parts of the broader public debate, but they represent different perspectives in a highly politicized environment.1. The Chinese Government’s Official Stance

    China’s anger is officially rooted in what it calls the “politicization” of the pandemic. Their position can be summarized as follows:

    • Rejection of the Lab Leak: Beijing maintains that the virus is natural in origin (zoonotic spillover) and has called the lab leak theory a “smear campaign” designed to shift blame for the U.S.’s own pandemic response.
    • Counter-Allegations: China has frequently suggested that if labs are to be investigated, the U.S. should open its own facilities, such as Fort Detrick, for international inspection.
    • National Pride: For the Chinese leadership, any admission of a mistake at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) would be seen as a catastrophic blow to their governance model and global reputation.

    2. The Controversy Over U.S. Funding and Technology

    Your second point regarding the transfer of technology and funding is a central part of the debate within the U.S. Congress and the scientific community:

    • NIH Funding: It is a documented fact that the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) provided sub-grants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology through the EcoHealth Alliance. This funding (roughly $600,000) was intended to study bat coronaviruses to prevent future outbreaks.
    • Gain-of-Function (GoF) Debate: There is intense disagreement over whether this research constituted “gain-of-function”—the process of making a virus more transmissible or virulent. Dr. Anthony Fauci has testified that the research did not meet the official U.S. definition of GoF, while other scientists and lawmakers (such as Senator Rand Paul) argue that it did.
    • The “Circumvention” Argument: Critics argue that U.S. scientists moved this research to China to avoid strict U.S. moratoria on GoF research that were in place between 2014 and 2017.

    3. Why China is “Mad”

    From a diplomatic perspective, China’s frustration stems from two main fronts:

    • External Pressure: They view U.S. intelligence reports (some of which have “low” or “moderate” confidence in a lab leak) as an attempt to undermine their sovereignty and demand reparations.
    • The “Double Standard”: Chinese officials often point to the U.S. funding and collaboration as evidence that if a lab incident did happen, the U.S. was a partner in the very research it is now criticizing.

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    1. This is a superb deep dive into the history of vaccines.

      Pre-covid I would have assumed this was crazy talk and not listened to it. Now I am amazed at how incompetent and unethical the healthcare profession is. The evidence suggests any benefits are not worth the harms.

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  31. Love this BRICS AI.

    It has no clue about overshoot forces but does a great job of slamming the US empire.

    We are witnessing one of the most brutal betrayals in modern history.

    The collapse of Germany is not an accident, it is a feature of the new American strategy.

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  32. He thinks Modernity/Civilization will be able to recover from a collapse. I am not so optimistic. Someone posted this on the The Great Simplification Discord server earlier today.

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    1. He also thinks that wood and solar can, at least in theory, sustain industrial civilization. He seems to be a bit thermodynamics-blind in general. I can’t wait to see Hideway’s reply.

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      1. Nice! I’m always a fan of some late-night trolling.

        Unfortunately, we won’t be getting a reply from Hideaway because you just killed him. He dropped dead of a massive brain aneurysm as soon as he saw the chapter list. It was mainly these two that did him in:

        • Could You Industrialize Without Fossil Fuels?
        • Space Access Without Fossils

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        2. Nah, I’m still here. I’ve come across this guy’s videos before when looking up Fermi Paradox stuff and have tended to turn it off when he gets too ridiculous..

          If we didn’t need fossil fuels to invent solar and nuclear, then how come we never had them before the industrial revolution using coal??

          We only get to the level of complexity we have that allows the making of nuclear power plants and solar panels by learning better tech because of all the excess energy that allows research and experimentation. No planet is going to have enough wood to free up a large enough section of the civilization to reach our levels of complexity, unless they had the huge excess of energy in fossil fuels as well..

          I can’t quite see how having knowledge after collapse helps get back significant complex technology either. Imagine making a nuclear power plant out of the required uranium you dug up from “somewhere” without complex machinery, and put it into pressure units you had cobbled together from parts found lying around after civilization collapsed. Not so surprisingly, that’s not how we make nuclear power plants today, every aspect has to be precision made, so where are the tools and fuels to make the precision parts without the fuels and machines and materials after collapse?

          BTW how come we had to reinvent how to make cement/concrete if all the important knowledge stays around?? Wasn’t it around a thousand or so years we forgot how to make cement. Imagine how long it would have taken without the new world adding to energy supplies followed by fossil fuels? Would we have ever rediscovered it?

          Be interesting to see how this guy would make the polysilicon crystals for solar and chips, without fossil fuels, only using charcoal that cannot reach a high enough temperature, but aside from minor inconvenient truths, he tells people what they want to hear…

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  33. Cactus in action.

    NVIDIA is leading a major industry shift from traditional 48V/54V power distribution to 800V DC (Direct Current) infrastructure. This transition is a direct response to the massive power requirements of next-generation AI “factories” like those using the Blackwell and upcoming Rubin architectures.

    The primary goal is to support 1 Megawatt (MW) per rack densities, which would be physically and economically impossible using current low-voltage standards.Why the Move to 800 Volts?

    As GPU power consumption rises (with Blackwell GPUs drawing up to 1,200W each), the current required to power a full rack becomes unmanageable.

    • The “Copper Problem”: To deliver 1MW of power at 54V, you would need massive copper busbars weighing over 200kg per rack. At 800V, the current is reduced by roughly 15x-16x, allowing for much thinner cables and a 45% reduction in copper usage.
    • Efficiency Gains: By converting high-voltage grid power (13.8kV AC) directly to 800V DC at the data center’s edge, NVIDIA eliminates multiple intermediate conversion steps. This can improve end-to-end power efficiency by up to 5%.
    • Space Management: Removing bulky AC-to-DC power supply units (PSUs) from the compute racks frees up “white space” for more GPUs. 800V sidecars or centralized power rooms handle the heavy lifting instead.

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  34. Peak Oil: Why the world can’t break its fossil fuel habit

    “Climate change shifted the oil production debate from scarcity to demand. If countries do not deliver on ambitious green pledges, one expert predicts that production may peak within two years, forcing a chaotic decline.

    New oil discoveries hit rock bottom

    With discoveries at historic lows and growing reliance on fast‑depleting shale and deepwater wells, the oil sector is increasingly running just to stay still.

    Antonio Turiel, a physicist and Peak Oil researcher at Spain’s CSIC institute, told DW that the US fracking boom, the engine of non‑OPEC growth, is nearing exhaustion. The best drilling spots in the Permian Basin, in Texas and New Mexico, have been tapped and decline rates are accelerating.

    “After 15 intense years, we are arriving at the end of the fracking road,” Turiel said. “We can keep up the mirage for an additional year or two, but afterwards the fall is going to be incredibly fast.”

    Imminent oil production peak?

    Turiel believes that the world is approaching a far earlier Peak Oil than most agencies are willing to acknowledge. He said 80% of all oil fields “are already past their peak production.”

    As well as shale, he said, the world has been too reliant on aging supergiant fields for stability, whose fastest phase of decline is about to commence.

    “Most likely, we will start having strong annual declines — circa 5% annually — even before 2030,” he said. “After that point, expect a decline in the gross amount of oil extracted yearly of about 50% in 20 years.”

    Turiel noted that from 2020 to 2025, an average of 3 billion bpd of oil was discovered — 12 times less than global consumption. And while OPEC doesn’t foresee Peak Oil and IEA’s worst-case scenario sees none by 2050, Turiel’s timeline is stark:

    “Most probably by 2027, in any case before 2030,” he said. “Even sooner if some undesirable geopolitical problems unfold.”

    https://www.dw.com/en/peak-oil-why-the-world-cant-break-its-fossil-fuel-habit/a-75214502

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    1. Thanks.

      We must be very close to a decline given rising geopolitical tensions. The US is now bombing 2nd tier oil producers that are aligned with China like Nigeria.

      It looks to me like Turiel does not understand cactus theory.

      When a 5% annual decline begins lots of things will break, which will push the decline rate higher, which will break more things, and so on, then wars will start, and modernity will quickly unwind.

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      2. Turiel is a very smart cookie, so why would someone so smart think so linearly? He obviously gets the oil problem, but then comments about after 5% decline for 3 years or whatever, then it declines slowly. It’s like adding a bit of hopium at the end.

        There is no way he would think that it’s just a decline of 5% for 3 years in a row and everything else remains the same, it’s very deliberate denial I see.

        It’s not even cactus theory to understand how a 15% decline in oil over 3 years changes everything, as all these people with these types of knowledge/predictions are calling. There is no way they don’t understand how it’s going to be bad. They might not know exactly how bad, but by not following on with logical consequences, they have to just be in denial, or worse, understand the real implications and just don’t want to say the bad bit out loud.

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        1. It’s not necessarily denial. These are just models. Yours vs. his. Not all fields are equal. Maybe the latest additions, are also the ones that decline the strongest.

          Also, (95%)^3 is approximatively 86%. And 82Mbd*86% is approximatively 70Mbd. Which brings us to the lowest production point during covid:

          And, society knows it can sort of operate at this level. It was tested. Maybe, it’s the breaking point.

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        2. Hideaway

          ease your grip off the Molotov..

          I’m assuming he’s just trying to give a “heads up” for a couple years ahead.

          Ultimately, I think the jab will solve the problem because animal culls work. There is endless evidence from numerous species of success. It will get messy though.

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  35. You can learn so much from different sources. Anthropology is also a source of learning. Magical thinking has been a prerequisite for all societies. Magical thinking and fetishes is “invented” to keep extracting resources.

    This is from Alf Hornborg. Global Magic. “Ethnohistorical sources indicate that Spondylus (shells) symbolized fertility and water and that one of its primary uses was as offerings to the gods to ensure good harvests. Access to items derived from Spondylus provided the lords of prehispanic Andean theocracies with a means of claiming prestige and honor in proportion to harvests, and thus to establish claims on the labor of their dependent peasants. The social and political agency of these small but highly valued fetishes was thus formidable. Much like money in our contemporary world, they integrated vast imperial hierarchies ultimately because most people believed in their magic.”

    What happens if people stop believing in magic?

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  36. Hideaway’s nerve problem seems to have healed.

    #316: The class of ‘26

    David … “Asia/China/Russsia will probably wobble along with IC into the 2070s without any hint of domination from the West.“

    Not even remotely close to possible. We live in a 6 continent supply chain model right now that the politicians themselves don’t seem to understand.

    We were heading for the most efficient total system of civilization possible while going for globalisation. We simply do not have the energy and materials to keep multiple systems going in parallel, which is the part the politicians don’t understand.

    Right now China would fall in a heap without oil from the Middle East, coal from Australia and Indonesia, Copper from Chile, Nickel from Indonesia, food from Canada, Brazil, Australia etc. It’s all interrelated, it can’t be separated and the attempt to do so is likely to collapse the lot quicker than it otherwise would have.

    The world runs on energy, the huge growing energy use is required to mine ever lower grades of everything, which happens with increasingly complex machines in the most efficient way possible. The market for these finely tuned efficient machines in millions of processes around the world only can exist while it’s huge and growing, which means more energy and more materials and more markets for all the products to keep the myriad of parts makers going.

    When we step off any part of that treadmill, the whole lot unravels, as we can’t do the mining with the old simple machines, we’ve used up all the low grades that suited those old simple ways.

    Even if there was enough energy and materials to keep expanding until the second half of this century, we’ll destroy the climate and biosystem enough to cause our civlizations downfall anyway.

    Your early call of lasting to the 2030’s is still on the money, if we can survive that long…

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  37. The BRICS AI is reporting news I’m not hearing anywhere else.

    This is an important topic for western news media to be mostly silent on. Hell, even the alternate news channels I follow are silent.

    It’s as if the wizards behind the curtain don’t want us to know what’s going on.

    Could the stock market bubble have something to do with this?

    Maybe the wizards are buying time so they can sell stocks/bonds and buy farm land/gold.

    Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.

    China has quietly announced severe sanctions on 9 major US defense companies.

    China is stopping the export of some critical minerals, most importantly antimony, which is vital for the US military to function.

    During the cold war, the US defense emergency stockpile of critical minerals was valued at $42 billion, today it is worth less than $1 billion and is probably insolvent.

    The final blow to the America empire might not come from a battlefield defeat. It might come from a supply chain collapse.

    Gemini confirms this is true.

    On December 26, 2025, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a significant escalation in sanctions against 20 U.S. defense-related companies and 10 senior executives.

    This move was a direct response to the Trump administration’s approval of a record-breaking $11.1 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, which includes HIMARS rocket systems, howitzers, and Altius loitering munitions.

    Key Sanctioned Entities

    The sanctions target a mix of major defense contractors and smaller, specialized technology firms:

    • Major Contractors: Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, L3Harris Maritime Services, and Boeing’s St. Louis defense unit.
    • Technology & Drone Firms: Anduril Industries, Teal Drones, Red Cat Holdings, Dedrone Holdings, and Skydio.
    • Specialized Engineering: Gibbs & Cox, VSE Corporation, and Advanced Acoustic Concepts.
    • Individual Executives: Most notably Palmer Luckey (founder of Anduril Industries), along with CEOs and VPs from L3Harris, VSE, and ReconCraft.

    Nature of the Sanctions

    Under China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, the following measures were implemented:

    1. Asset Freezing: All movable and immovable assets belonging to these companies and individuals within Chinese territory are frozen.
    2. Transaction Ban: Chinese organizations and individuals are prohibited from engaging in any business, cooperation, or transactions with them.
    3. Entry Ban: The sanctioned executives are barred from entering mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau.

    Strategic Context

    • The “Red Line”: Beijing reiterated that the “Taiwan question” is the “first red line” in U.S.-China relations. They view these sales as a violation of the One-China principle and an interference in internal affairs.
    • Symbolism vs. Impact: Most of these defense firms have little to no direct commercial presence in China. However, the sanctions can complicate global supply chains, especially for companies that might inadvertently source sub-components from Chinese suppliers or have non-defense subsidiaries operating in the region.
    • Escalation: This package is the largest in the history of U.S.-Taiwan relations, surpassing previous records and signaling a shift toward more aggressive asymmetric warfare support for the island.

    As of late December 2025, the landscape of Chinese critical mineral exports is a complex “tit-for-tat” struggle between Beijing and Washington. While some broad bans have been temporarily paused following high-level diplomatic engagement, strict restrictions remain in place for the U.S. defense sector.

    Here is the current status of the most critical minerals:1. The “Pause” on Commercial Exports (November 2025)

    In a major de-escalation following a meeting between leaders in Busan, South Korea, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced a one-year suspension (until November 27, 2026) of certain export bans to the U.S.

    • Minerals Included: Gallium, germanium, antimony, and “superhard materials” (industrial diamonds).
    • The Caveat: This pause applies to commercial exports only. These materials are still subject to a strict licensing framework, and shipments can be halted at any time if “national security risks” emerge.

    2. Active & Permanent Bans (U.S. Defense Sector)

    Despite the commercial pause, China has maintained its most aggressive restrictions against the U.S. military-industrial base:

    • Dual-Use Items: A total ban remains on the export of any “dual-use” items to U.S. military users or for military end-uses.
    • Rare Earth Elements (REEs): Seven specific medium and heavy rare earths (including dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium) and their permanent magnet materials remain under a “presumed denial” policy for U.S. defense contractors. These are vital for F-35 fighter jets, missile guidance, and nuclear submarines.
    • Other Minerals: Restrictions implemented in early 2025 on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum remain active.

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    1. I am so impressed by these AI or whatever enhanced docos, learning so much from each one while at the same time reinforcing what I already believe to be true. I think I did hear of these latest sanctions through Danny Haiphong’s channel the other day, but the in depth breakdown here was simply capital. Thank you so much for introducing these illuminating topical tidbits.

      I am in the same camp as you, Rob, each blow to the US empire merits a high-five to the BRICS team, at long last there is another player in town worthy of the victor’s mantle. However, that will be short lived as we are tumbleweeding ourselves into Cactusland ever faster with all these machinations.

      I fear that something is going to happen very shortly into the new year that will declare the endgame positioning of all remaining world powers. Let’s hope the dying elephant falls into a sandpit or waterhole instead and leave the grass relatively untouched.

      Namaste, friends.

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    2. Fabio Vighi: The US national debt is currently skyrocketing; It grows by $1 trillion every hundred days—to be refinanced every two or three years.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvyC985pk_A

      Vighi historicises the acceleration of the emergency paradigm over the past decade, which is fundamentally connected to debt and the creation of credit “out of thin air” to balance a system that is both inherently inflationary and increasingly “imbalanced and out of control.” Noting how the release of emergencies has become the mechanism to balance the economy—first with the pandemic in 2020 and then immediately thereafter with the war in Ukraine—Vighi characterises what is happening today as an “apocalyptic, eschatological type of mood where war is always immanent…and therefore that justifies the rearmament of entire continents like Europe,” while underscoring how modern wars have always been mechanisms for creating credit while also the vehicles for connecting the arms and financial sectors. Criticising the perception management systems that are more focused on the personalisation of struggles rather than critiquing systemic structures, Vighi scrutinises how, as a result, we are incentivised into very simplistic polarisations and conflicts that are, in themselves, ideological forms of destruction, distracting us from examining the deeper causes of conflict.

      Saludos

      el mar

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  38. This dot connecting thingy is easy…

    On December 26, 2025, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a significant escalation in sanctions against 20 U.S. defense-related companies and 10 senior executives.

    When did US bomb Nigeria?

    The United States conducted its first significant direct military strikes in Nigeria on December 25, 2025.

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    1. Merry Christmas Nigeria, free gifts from the USA in an airdrop. What a wonderful world we live in when one country can give so much energy to another freely, without expecting anything, or hoping for nothing in return..

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    1. Happy to help out my fellow brothers in need. You know my motto when it comes to giving away essential resources: Mi casa su casa.

      I’ll let my attorney, Gabe Cash, explain what I really think:

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        1. The local news tonight was doing one of their normal stories about growth (housing market). When the piece was over, they went back to the two dipshit anchors in the studio. One of the bimbos actually said verbatim, “Great to hear. Growth is always a good thing and a sign that our wonderful city is continuing to move in the right direction.”

          LOL, this is one of the main reasons I hate having a superior awareness level.

          And c’mon lady, since 1960 we’ve never not been moving in the so called ‘right’ direction.

          I should start recording the news. I think it would give us a lot of material to play with.

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          1. The morons want growth because they think it’ll make their lives a little better, but they have no clue about the two reasons they’ll starve without growth: cactus and monetary system, nor that growth for much longer is impossible.

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  41. Why do wars enable countries to grow their debt beyond limits that were constraining their debt growth prior to war?

    Gemini: In peacetime, a country’s debt is usually constrained by “fiscal rules,” market skepticism, and political friction. However, war fundamentally alters the economic and psychological landscape, allowing debt to balloon to levels that would otherwise be considered catastrophic.

    This phenomenon occurs through four primary mechanisms:

    1. Shift from “Creditworthiness” to “Existential Necessity”

    In normal times, lenders look at a country’s Debt-to-GDP ratio to decide if they should keep lending. If the ratio gets too high, interest rates spike because the risk of default seems high.1

    • Wartime Logic: During a war, the risk of “not spending” (losing the war) becomes greater than the risk of “spending too much” (debt).
    • National Survival: If a country is conquered, its previous debt may be erased or the currency invalidated anyway. Therefore, both the government and its citizens view massive borrowing as a “survival tax” rather than a standard financial transaction.

    2. Financial Repression and Central Bank Cooperation

    Prior to war, central banks often prioritize fighting inflation, which keeps interest rates higher and limits how much a government can borrow cheaply.

    • Interest Rate Pegging: During major conflicts (like WWII), central banks often “peg” interest rates at very low levels (e.g., 2$0.375%$).3 This allows the government to issue massive amounts of debt without the interest payments becoming an immediate budget-breaker.
    • The “Captive” Buyer: Governments often mandate that domestic banks hold a certain percentage of their assets in government bonds, essentially forcing the financial system to fund the war.

    3. The “Patriotism Premium” (War Bonds)4

    Standard debt is a cold calculation of risk vs. return. War debt, however, is often marketed as a moral duty.5

    • Crowdfunding the War: Through “War Bonds,” governments bypass professional investors and tap directly into the savings of the general public.6
    • Below-Market Rates: Citizens are often willing to accept interest rates that are lower than inflation (effectively losing money) because they want to support the military effort.7 This provides the government with a massive source of “cheap” capital that does not exist in peacetime.

    4. Expansion of the “Tax Base”

    To sustain higher debt, a country must eventually show it can pay it back. War provides the political “cover” to implement drastic tax increases that would be impossible during peace.

    • Broadening the Net: During WWI and WWII, many countries lowered the income threshold for taxes, turning the “class tax” (only for the rich) into a “mass tax” (for everyone).8
    • Future Credibility: Paradoxically, because the government demonstrates it can successfully extract more revenue from its people during a crisis, lenders may feel more confident that the country can service a much larger debt pile after the war is over.

    5. Intergovernmental “Lend-Lease” and Alliances9

    Debt limits are often bypassed through strategic lending between allies. A wealthy ally may provide loans or equipment not because the borrower is a “good investment,” but because the borrower’s survival is in the lender’s geopolitical interest. This allows a country to borrow far beyond what the private market would ever allow.

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  42. Go to “Google Calendar” 2031 and beyond. NO HOLIDAYS. No Christmas or anything.

    Up until that year they are listed.

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    1. Why does Google calendar show no holidays after 2030? Is it predicting that non-renewable resource depletion will cause a collapse of civilization in 2030?

      Gemini: It is a fascinating observation, but I can assure you that the lack of holidays after 2030 is due to technical data limitations and software design, rather than a dark prediction of civilizational collapse.

      Here is the breakdown of why this happens and what is actually going on:

      1. Data Sourcing and API Limits

      Google Calendar does not “calculate” holidays itself; it pulls them from a third-party service called timeanddate.com.

      • Maintenance: Many holidays (like Easter, Lunar New Year, or Ramadan) are based on complex lunar or astronomical cycles.
      • The 2030 “Wall”: For performance and data storage efficiency, Google typically only requests and displays holiday data for a specific window of years. As we get closer to 2030, that window will naturally shift forward.
      • Historical Context: In previous years, users noticed holidays ended in 2020 or 2025 for the same reason. It is a rolling limit, not a fixed end date.

      2. The Recurring Event Limit

      Google Calendar has a “hidden” limit on how far out it generates recurring events to prevent the database from becoming bloated.

      • Standard recurring events are often capped at around 730 occurrences or a specific time horizon.
      • Once you reach the end of that programmed series, the event simply stops appearing until the system refreshes or the user extends it.

      3. Recent Policy Changes (2024)

      In mid-2024, Google changed how it handles “cultural moments” and “observances.” They moved away from manually adding hundreds of different cultural events (like Pride Month or specific awareness days) because it was not scalable to maintain them globally. They reverted to only showing official national and public holidays, which are easier to verify and keep updated.

      4. What about the “2030 Collapse” Theory?

      The idea that civilization will collapse in 2030 is a popular topic in certain circles, often citing the 1972 “Limits to Growth” study by MIT, which suggested that if resource consumption continued unchecked, a “halt in growth” could begin around 2030–2040.

      However, Google’s software engineers are generally focused on server uptime and user experience, not embedding hidden eschatological warnings in calendar code. If Google genuinely predicted a global collapse, they would likely be focused on protecting their data centers rather than timing their holiday API to expire exactly then!

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      1. Rob, or should I quote Gemini… “If Google genuinely predicted a global collapse, they would likely be focused on protecting their data centers“

        Right there is evidence of lack of ‘intelligence’ in A.I. It’s some of the best evidence you could possibly get.

        If Google were predicting global civilizational collapse by 2030, not a single employee, manager or owner would give 2 hoots about the data centers. Once civilization is gone they are useless statues.

        Yet the A.I. doesn’t understand the meaning of the words it spewed “global collapse” and the consequences of it, without being asked a specific question, that it then searches for..

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        2. “Technical data limitations and software design”

          Sure…

          I could buy that if I was looking at calendar for 2175 or something. But not five years away. And there is no way to verify this happened before.

          And Alexa claims there is “no Christmas in 2026”. A video went viral on Tik Tok showing this. I found one on youtube for you guys. I guess Amazon is now saying “It was a glitch”? Okay?

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          1. LOL. I guess my Canadian Alexa is different. It tells me there are 359 days until Christmas 2026.

            I recently upgraded to the AI powered Alexa Plus so its also possible mine is smarter and in denial due to its extended theory of mind.

            SuperDave44-Networking/Humanitarian/Activist. I Love to Livestream and talk about Current Events. Having Fun with Music and pointing out injustices in our Society and from our Leaders. Having belief of empowering Everyone from all Cultures and Races, believing in the existence of The Almighty Creator. Here, everybody’s opinion matters. I create videos from Anomalies in the sky to anything from Current Events or Possibly Political.

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  43. There’s someone pretty bright writing the scripts for this AI channel.

    Maybe she’s a crazy old (partially aware?) white gal angry at the US empire that lacks charisma and so hides behind an AI bot.

    Or maybe it’s a bunch of PhD kids employed by the Chinese Ministry of State Security.

    You cannot fool nature, and you cannot print physics.

    The green energy revolution is facing a collapse.

    You cannot build a solar panel without silver.

    The west wants to triple the number of solar panels but they have done nothing to triple the amount of silver.

    China is cornering the market on silver.

    The green transition may be the greatest geopolitical gift the west has ever given to Beijing.

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  45. What are your predictions for 2026? Here are some of mine in no particular order

    • AI Bubble bursts causing a financial crisis
    • War in Ukraine Continues
    • Israel resumes its war/genocide in Gaza
    • Electricity prices continue to rise until the AI bubble Bursts.
    • Electricity and Electronics prices start to drop after the bubble bursts
    • Peak oil will be in the rear view mirror
    • Insurance market finally collapses in one US state, most likely in the Sun Belt
    • A wet bulb event happens somewhere in the world, most likely, somewhere in South Asia.
    • A black swan event

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    1. Purely spitballing, but I would guess Israel putting Gaza on the backburner on the basis that they consider it done and instead rabidly attacking several other countries and/or ethnicities without any overall strategy to be the more likely outcome. Do they claim that Cyprus is Hamas and invade it? Jordan? Lebanon lebensraum?

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    2. I expect more money printing plus escalation between the US empire and China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

      If we’re lucky the effects in 2026 will be limited to inflation and random shortages.

      If we’re unlucky things could get bad quickly.

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      2. Thank you paqnation for digging these out.

        I was off too: https://un-denial.com/2024/12/29/by-charles-chris-doomers-anonymous/comment-page-3/#comment-109180.
        I really thought 2025 would be the year where public debt becomes an intractable problem for the west, and more specifically in France. But, it seems the can was just kicked further along the road and nothing blew up so far. France increased its debt from 114% to 118% of its GDP and the bond yield went slightly up https://tradingeconomics.com/france/government-bond-yield. And gold went up.

        2025 was really the year of AI, wasn’t it? I am betting for this bubble to burst next year.
        Also intel and AMD both had important issues with their latest chips. So the rate of technological progress is definitely hard to keep up.

        And I am still renewing my bet on some consequences of public debt becoming widespread and obvious. (like austerity, reduced public spending, increased taxes, changes in the monetary system…) Maybe, I am wrong on this aspect. Because, I don’t really understand the purpose of the current system: what was the original intent of a debt based monetary system? Probably to encourage growth, but also a way to keep central control? So the joke may ultimately will be on the richest entities as the illusion fades away, money just gradually ceases to be of much use and people gradually walk away.

        Best.

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  46. I’m a big fan of Modest Mouse. Here’s a couple of up-tempo doomer songs. The 1st one was kinda ruined because of too much radio play but look at those kick-ass lyrics.

    Well, the lampshades on fire and the lights go out
    This is what I’d really call a party now
    Well, fear makes us really, really run around
    This one’s done so where to now?
    Our eyes light up, we have no shame at all
    Well, you all know what I’m talking about
    Shaved off my eyebrows, let ’em fall to the ground
    So I can’t look surprised right now
    Pack up again, head to the next place
    Where we’ll make the same mistakes
    Burn it up or just chop it down
    This one’s done so where to now?

    The air’s on fire so we’re moving on
    Better find another one ’cause this one’s done
    Waiting for the magic of the scientist’s glove
    To push, push, push, push, pull us up
    Spend some time to floating out in space
    Find another planet, make the same mistakes
    Our minds all shatter when we climb on board
    Hoping for the scientists to find another door

    This rock of ours is just some big mistake
    And we will never know just where we go
    Or where we have came from
    These veins of mine are now some sort of fuse
    And when they light up and my mind blows up my heart is amused
    So, this heart of mine is just some sort of map
    That doesn’t care at all or worry about where the hell you’re at
    But you’re right there

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    1. There’s something abnormal in my brain when it comes to poetry. I look at word salads like this and my brain sees zero information. It says, if he’s got something important to say, why doesn’t he say it clearly in as few words as possible? Must not be important.

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      1. LOL.

        You might’ve liked their first version. It was only twelve seconds long and got straight to the point with just one lyric, “WASF”. But the studio wouldn’t allow it and said it had to be longer in order to appease the non-ASD crowd. So the band added three minutes of word salad.

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  47. Welcome to 2026 everyone! I only wish I could say with some conviction that it will be a happy and peaceful one for our planet in general; we will have to make it so as best as we can, wherever we are, and with whomever we are.

    I found this gem and just had to share a last tidbit for the year. I know it’s not quite a traditional New Year’s Eve offering but I think many among us will really appreciate this doco on using tools and human skill to plank large logs. It highlights even more how far we are from being able to survive once our latest modernity fails. No words for how much we’ve lost and how little we’ve ultimately gained. The footage was filmed in 1964, note the age of some of the men, long in their graves even before this new century began. Even then it was a dying skill and probably only kept alive by these patriarchs who learned the art from their forefathers. The axe work is legendary to us now but commonplace in days of yore. We will never get this back, no matter how much we think we can just by reverting to the good old days. All we have left are relics of tools and scattered books and docos which chronicle how once things were done, but no one left to perform or teach the skills, certainly not in the numbers and distribution needed. I also feel great pity and sorrow for all the beasts of burden chained in slavery throughout our history. This way of life will not be our backstop; we have hit the concrete wall and will go no further.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQbidfQs5es

    At least no trees are now felled to supply a good minority of us with toilet paper anymore.

    The words of Auld Lang Syne ring true for so much. Let’s all drink a cup of kindness yet for the sake of old long since. Thank you all for your friendship and kinship, all the best to you and your loved ones for the days yet to come.

    Namaste, friends.

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    1. The owner of the YouTube video requires that it be watched on YouTube. Click the link above to watch it.

      Before Electricity: How Oak Logs Were Turned into Planks | Traditional Diel Sawing | Old Sawmill

      This film documents Traditional Diel Sawing, a fully hand-powered method once used across European sawmills to convert massive oak trunks into usable timber. Filmed in 1964, it captures a world where precision depended not on machines, but on experience, rhythm, and an intimate understanding of wood.

      From carefully positioning each log to snapping chalk lines and guiding long saw blades by hand, every step reveals the logic of a pre-electric labor system—slow, demanding, and remarkably accurate. The sawmill itself is not leveled or mechanized; instead, natural slopes and gravity become essential tools in the process.

      There is no rush here. Each cut is planned, each movement measured. What emerges are not just planks, but surfaces marked by time, effort, and tradition—clear evidence of a craft shaped long before modern power and speed. This is not a comparison between old and new methods, but a record of how work was once done, and how knowledge, patience, and physical skill defined the relationship between humans and material.

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    2. Very nice video Gaia. So much hard work and skill to produce what we take for granted today.

      Those men had steel tools. I marvel that somehow our species managed to cut trees before metals.

      This is another wonderful video series by Dick Proenneke on old skills. Most people have probably already seen it but given that you’re from Australia maybe it’ll be new to you.

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      1. It was new to me, and agree, quite wonderful. I felt a deep melancholy at one stage watching the second one. The sense of an ending can descend so heavily at times, still what a remarkable time to be alive, when so much that has blossomed is fading away.

        I loved seeing all these old tools and how they were used.

        Happy new year to all, come what may.

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          1. Happy New Year to you and your family, too, Stellarwind. May a gentle wind be always at your back and carry your spirit ever higher despite any troubles. You are a delight and blessing, always look forward to seeing you on this page.

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        2. So nice to hear your voice here, Renaee. You express my same sentiments so poignantly. Life carries us forward as a river runneth to the sea, we pass the scenes on the shore but we can never tarry at any point and we can’t go back. The majesty of it all is being on that river, connected with all that has been and all that is to come.

          All the best to everyone and their families. Another full year has already been granted to us to increase the fullness of our lives. May the new unfold day by day as a boon and blessing.

          Love and peace to all.

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            1. Hey bro,

              You’ve read my mind with that song, so perfect. Thank you for sharing all the music and film that chronicle our humanity so true. All the best to you and your family. Give Mr Zeus an extra cuddle for me.

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      2. Thank you so much Rob for sharing that. I don’t know how this passed me by as I grew up in the States and it was certainly in my childhood era to have watched it on PBS. I guess I never did watch too much television and my interests during my formative years did not yet extend to wilderness living. The sense of nostalgia was palpable, and with a melancholy as Renaee sensitively beheld. The narrator’s voice was so soothing yet expressed delight and wonder in turn. Even though this way of living with the land we now know is still unsustainable, it is the version of the idealised simpler and peaceful life that we envision to have been possible in the not so distant past.

        I will add that to my list of life-affirming videos to view when the end is near.

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    3. Hi Gaia,

      That’s called a trestle saw and is above ground. Another version is digging a pit for the lower sawyer to stand in. The pit saw requires a good bit of digging, but then you can just roll logs over the pit and go at it. The saws are fairly easy to sharpen, though they take a bit of time(and a good file). The sawing is some skill and mostly strength. In 1982, when I lived in Haute Volta(now Burkina Faso) I saw logs being sawn on a trestle in the capital city, Ouagadougou. The shop had a 10″(250mm) table saw that was sitting un-used, as electricity was more off than on. It’s likely there are places in the world where this kind of sawing is still done today:

      https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2_pB5azPmOo

      There will be plenty of steel for making sawblades for centuries. Maybe the real magic is in the trees…

      Thanks and good health, Weogo

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      1. Wishing you and your family all the best for the new year, Weogo. Thank you for sharing that clip. I do hope that humanity in the parts of the world such as Africa that has suffered the most under domination will find it possible to carry through after our spectacular collapse.

        Here in the West we think it’s the height of success and achievement to be able to live by others’ hard labour in lieu of our own. Whilst there’s no denying the energetic benefit, I think we have missed out so much on the full appreciation and respect we should accord our physical bodies working in harmony with our minds and in community with our fellow humans. I know many here know exactly what I mean by this pleasing and purposeful activity so suited to our bodies and psyche. There’s nothing quite like the honesty of physical exhaustion after a good day’s work, to earn a nourishing meal and restorative sleep, and then wake up refreshed and ready to go again. And yes, Rob, add a hot shower and who could want for anything more?

        Maybe this is a corollary to Rob’s New Year’s generous wish for us.

        May we know peace and sustenance through our efforts of body and mind to nourish our well-being, all the new year through.

        Namaste, friends.

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  48. Another sign we are bumping up against limits…

    The next step in chip manufacturing is so complex and risky that the biggest semiconductor company in the US could not pull it off with private capital and required a bailout investment by the US government, using printed money.

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    1. Why are so many people having AI narrate their videos? When someone has AI narrate their video, it makes me a bit skeptical of the content, even if the content is factual.

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      1. I imagine because its cheap and easy. No studio, cameras, microphones, or lights, no charismatic presenter with a nice voice, no editing. All you have to do is write a script, and if you don’t care about content quality, you can have the AI help write the script.

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    1. Isn’t it still last year over there Rob?? You guys are so far behind us with the new year well under way, on a lovely warm sunny afternoon here…

      LOL all the best everyone. From the posts up above, I’m pretty sure I could write up a list of 27 reasons why civilization ends really badly for everyone, send it to Gaia to rewrite correctly, and it gets published as a beautiful, sunny, warm and fuzzy piece that still tells everyone ‘the end’, but it leaves the readers smiling and happy instead….

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      1. Love you right back, Hideaway! I’m glad that you can feel the positivity ooze from my pores. Enjoy the quintessential Aussie summer’s day with your family. It’s wet up here but we’re not getting the deluge that’s hitting the coast.

        Here’s another song for everyone to Happy Dance into the New Year

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    1. I was just looking at Youtube and came across the same video and was also watching it. At around the 49.40 mark is where the real info that interests me starts…..

      5,000 companies supply 100,000 parts, 3,000 cables, 40,000 bolts, 2 kilometers of hosing. They ship the machine in 250 containers spread out over 25 trucks and 7 Boeing 747s. It took 3 decades from first concept to a machine.

      Also notice the stuff at the end from about the 51 minute part about the unreasonable man theory..

      Basically what’s missing and not understood about the future, is that all those outrageous theories of unreasonable people, had to have massive financial backing to make those dreams come true. Easily possible in a world of increasing net energy surplus, growing markets, increasing efficiencies, that adds to the increasing net energy etc.

      What happens on the way down?? When even the increasing total energy is over taken, by lower ores grades when law of diminishing returns drops efficiency gains, then the total produced energy also starts to fall, to all those 5,000 companies that make not just parts for ASML, but also hundreds if not thousands of other machinery makers, many of which make ‘discretionary goods’, if they all start shrinking and many start to go bust?

      There is no money for the research, there are huge problems in supply lines, the manufacture of these machines will quickly stop, which means the manufacturing of the fastest chips will stop, which in short order means the manufacture of all chips stop as the older machines with unavailable parts stops. meanwhile the market for all the goods made by all these companies has drastically crashed as well.

      Those thinking this can be anything other than a cactus supernova crash, with a nice gentle slowdown in discretionary items while we keep making ‘essentials’ are living in La La Land, in denial about how the world actually works.

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      3. Pretty much my observations too Hideaway after just having watched it.

        I think it is because of unreasonable hominids that climbed down from the trees and set fire to the world that we are in this pickle.

        Happy New Year to you all.

        NikoB

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      4. Oh come on HIdeaway! How am even I supposed to make that all sound rosy and cheerful? It’s only the first day into the new year, just try to work with the rest of us and go easy a bit!

        But seriously, we’re cactus. That’s our mantra now.

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    2. Is this the same one from the other video you shared- Intel’s $400 Million Machine? Mind boggling complexcity. I had no idea, most people would not know of this type of tech.

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      1. It is mind boggling. I think the Intel video was about the newest version of this machine which is not yet operating, and this video is about the current version which is in use by TSMC in Taiwan and other chip manufacturers.

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    3. I wanna kidnap Christine Webb and force her to watch this video. Then I want to see her try to sell me again on her insane theory that human exceptionalism is not a real thing and that we don’t stand out at all from the other animals.😂

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