RFK Jr. was confirmed yesterday as HHS Secretary and the MAHA Alliance held a press conference to celebrate this important moment in history.
Del Bigtree was RFK Jr.’s Communications Director. Now that RFK Jr. has been confirmed, Bigtree’s job is finished and he’s able to speak for himself without representing RFK Jr.
Sen. Ron Johnson introduces Del Bigtree at 10:20.
Bigtree’s speech starts at 16:00 and is a must watch for anyone concerned about improving our collective health, and righting the wrongs of covid.
If any of you, like me, feel the need for a little revenge after covid, this speech is righteous.
Bigtree brutally destroys the mainstream news media for their incompetence, indifference, and corruption.
This speech by RFK Jr. after his swearing in ceremony is also excellent.
I don’t have too many heroes, but RFK Jr. is one of them. This video is a nice introduction to the man.
Here is the president’s executive order authorizing MAHA. It’s inspiring and worth a read.
ESTABLISHING THE PRESIDENT’S
MAKE AMERICA HEALTHY AGAIN COMMISSIONEXECUTIVE ORDER
February 13, 2025
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered:
Section 1. Purpose. American life expectancy significantly lags behind other developed countries, with pre‑COVID-19 United States life expectancy averaging 78.8 years and comparable countries averaging 82.6 years. This equates to 1.25 billion fewer life years for the United States population. Six in 10 Americans have at least one chronic disease, and four in 10 have two or more chronic diseases. An estimated one in five United States adults lives with a mental illness.
These realities become even more painful when contrasted with nations around the globe. Across 204 countries and territories, the United States had the highest age-standardized incidence rate of cancer in 2021, nearly double the next-highest rate. Further, from 1990-2021, the United States experienced an 88 percent increase in cancer, the largest percentage increase of any country evaluated. In 2021, asthma was more than twice as common in the United States than most of Europe, Asia, or Africa. Autism spectrum disorders had the highest prevalence in high-income countries, including the United States, in 2021. Similarly, autoimmune diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease, psoriasis, and multiple sclerosis are more commonly diagnosed in high-income areas such as Europe and North America. Overall, the global comparison data demonstrates that the health of Americans is on an alarming trajectory that requires immediate action.
This concern applies urgently to America’s children. In 2022, an estimated 30 million children (40.7 percent) had at least one health condition, such as allergies, asthma, or an autoimmune disease. Autism spectrum disorder now affects 1 in 36 children in the United States — a staggering increase from rates of 1 to 4 out of 10,000 children identified with the condition during the 1980s. Eighteen percent of late adolescents and young adults have fatty liver disease, close to 30 percent of adolescents are prediabetic, and more than 40 percent of adolescents are overweight or obese.
These health burdens have continued to increase alongside the increased prescription of medication. For example, in the case of Attention Deficit Disorder/Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, over 3.4 million children are now on medication for the disorder — up from 3.2 million children in 2019-2020 — and the number of children being diagnosed with the condition continues to rise.
This poses a dire threat to the American people and our way of life. Seventy-seven percent of young adults do not qualify for the military based in large part on their health scores. Ninety percent of the Nation’s $4.5 trillion in annual healthcare expenditures is for people with chronic and mental health conditions. In short, Americans of all ages are becoming sicker, beset by illnesses that our medical system is not addressing effectively. These trends harm us, our economy, and our security.
To fully address the growing health crisis in America, we must re-direct our national focus, in the public and private sectors, toward understanding and drastically lowering chronic disease rates and ending childhood chronic disease. This includes fresh thinking on nutrition, physical activity, healthy lifestyles, over-reliance on medication and treatments, the effects of new technological habits, environmental impacts, and food and drug quality and safety. We must restore the integrity of the scientific process by protecting expert recommendations from inappropriate influence and increasing transparency regarding existing data. We must ensure our healthcare system promotes health rather than just managing disease.
Sec. 2. Policy. It shall be the policy of the Federal Government to aggressively combat the critical health challenges facing our citizens, including the rising rates of mental health disorders, obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases. To do so, executive departments and agencies (agencies) that address health or healthcare must focus on reversing chronic disease. Under this policy:
(a) all federally funded health research should empower Americans through transparency and open-source data, and should avoid or eliminate conflicts of interest that skew outcomes and perpetuate distrust;
(b) the National Institutes of Health and other health-related research funded by the Federal Government should prioritize gold-standard research on the root causes of why Americans are getting sick;
(c) agencies shall work with farmers to ensure that United States food is the healthiest, most abundant, and most affordable in the world; and
(d) agencies shall ensure the availability of expanded treatment options and the flexibility for health insurance coverage to provide benefits that support beneficial lifestyle changes and disease prevention.
Sec. 3. Establishment and Composition of the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission. (a) There is hereby established the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (Commission), chaired by the Secretary of Health and Human Services (Chair), with the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy serving as Executive Director (Executive Director).
(b) In addition to the Chair and the Executive Director, the Commission shall include the following officials, or their designees:
(i) the Secretary of Agriculture;
(ii) the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development;
(iii) the Secretary of Education;
(iv) the Secretary of Veterans Affairs;
(v) the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency;
(vi) the Director of the Office of Management and Budget;
(vii) the Assistant to the President and Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy;
(viii) the Director of the National Economic Council;
(ix) the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers;
(x) the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy;
(xi) the Commissioner of Food and Drugs;
(xii) the Director for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention;
(xiii) the Director of the National Institutes of Health; and
(xiv) other members of my Administration invited to participate, at the discretion of the Chair and the Executive Director.
Sec. 4. Fighting Childhood Chronic Disease. The initial mission of the Commission shall be to advise and assist the President on how best to exercise his authority to address the childhood chronic disease crisis. Therefore, the Commission shall:
(a) study the scope of the childhood chronic disease crisis and any potential contributing causes, including the American diet, absorption of toxic material, medical treatments, lifestyle, environmental factors, Government policies, food production techniques, electromagnetic radiation, and corporate influence or cronyism;
(b) advise and assist the President on informing the American people regarding the childhood chronic disease crisis, using transparent and clear facts; and
(c) provide to the President Government-wide recommendations on policy and strategy related to addressing the identified contributing causes of and ending the childhood chronic disease crisis.
Sec. 5. Initial Assessment and Strategy from the Make America Healthy Again Commission. (a) Make our Children Healthy Again Assessment. Within 100 days of the date of this order, the Commission shall submit to the President, through the Chair and the Executive Director, the Make Our Children Healthy Again Assessment, which shall:
(i) identify and describe childhood chronic disease in America compared to other countries;
(ii) assess the threat that potential over-utilization of medication, certain food ingredients, certain chemicals, and certain other exposures pose to children with respect to chronic inflammation or other established mechanisms of disease, using rigorous and transparent data, including international comparisons;
(iii) assess the prevalence of and threat posed by the prescription of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, antipsychotics, mood stabilizers, stimulants, and weight-loss drugs;
(iv) identify and report on best practices for preventing childhood health issues, including through proper nutrition and the promotion of healthy lifestyles;
(v) evaluate the effectiveness of existing educational programs with regard to nutrition, physical activity, and mental health for children;
(vi) identify and evaluate existing Federal programs and funding intended to prevent and treat childhood health issues for their scope and effectiveness;
(vii) ensure transparency of all current data and unpublished analyses related to the childhood chronic disease crisis, consistent with applicable law;
(viii) evaluate the effectiveness of current Federal Government childhood health data and metrics, including those from the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics and the National Survey of Children’s Health;
(ix) restore the integrity of science, including by eliminating undue industry influence, releasing findings and underlying data to the maximum extent permitted under applicable law, and increasing methodological rigor; and
(x) establish a framework for transparency and ethics review in industry-funded projects.
(b) Make our Children Healthy Again Strategy. Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Commission shall submit to the President, through the Chair and the Executive Director, a Make Our Children Healthy Again Strategy (Strategy), based on the findings from the Make Our Children Healthy Again Assessment described in subsection (a) of this section. The Strategy shall address appropriately restructuring the Federal Government’s response to the childhood chronic disease crisis, including by ending Federal practices that exacerbate the health crisis or unsuccessfully attempt to address it, and by adding powerful new solutions that will end childhood chronic disease.
Sec. 6. Additional Reports. (a) Following the submission to the President of the Strategy, and any final strategy reports thereafter, the Chair and the Executive Director shall recommend to the President updates to the Commission’s mission, including desired reports.
(b) The Commission shall not reconvene, following submission of the Strategy, until an updated mission is submitted to the President through the Executive Director.
Sec. 7. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
THE WHITE HOUSE,
February 13, 2025.
<edit>
A few comments below from angry, now ex, followers suggest they were unaware of my gradual transformation over the last 4 years of observing and researching covid, from being certain RFK Jr. was a nut job, to now supporting RFK Jr.’s mission to improve our abysmal and worsening pubic health.
I’ve copied my replies to the criticisms here so that the reasons for my new beliefs are clear.
notabilia: You make excellent, well-researched points at times.
And you throw it all away by being an anti-vaxxer ass clown.
I too thought anti-vaxxers were nut jobs.
Then the experts I trusted renamed a 20 year old technology, known to be unsafe and ineffective in humans, from transfection to vaccine, pretended transfection was a new miracle technology, and coerced it into 5+ billion people after insufficient and fraudulent testing, including children that had zero risk from the virus, and when adverse event data showed the transfections were dangerous at levels far higher than had been sufficient to withdraw prior vaccines from the market, they doubled down, and hid and denied the data, and they continued to coerce transfections despite the disease being low risk for all except elderly and co-morbid people, and despite several safe and effective alternate treatments being available.
Today the rate of sickness and all-cause mortality is higher than pre-transfection, and the only thing our “experts” are certain of is that the cause is not the mRNA transfections. This despite there being several easy to understand first principle reasons to suspect mRNA transfections will never, and can never, be made safe.
The mRNA transfections are just the tip of the covid iceberg. They lied about every single covid issue, and they used tax dollars to corrupt news media, and to censor social media, to make us believe the lies.
Every covid policy was exactly wrong. To maximize your probability of good health the best course of action was to do exactly the opposite of what they told us to do. Incompetence does not explain this. They would have achieved a better public health outcome had they flipped a coin on every decision.
After observing 4 years of a healthcare system incapable of learning and correcting when new data emerges, and that pathologically lies, I no longer trust a word they say about anything.
So yes, I now proudly call myself an anti-vaxxer.
Go get ’em Bobby!
Anonymous: The health problems of the US population can largely be traced to a crap diet… good luck changing that. Any real attempt to do so will be shut down as a communist plot.
Yes, unhealthy food is a huge problem. It’s also not that complicated. Reducing sugar would be a good start.
We face many existential overshoot threats for which there is no “fix” thanks to MPP and MORT governing our behaviors, and thanks to the core design of the system that keeps us alive.
The threat from relatively recent, extremely poor public health is different. There is nothing fundamental blocking us from improving public health. I think we should support RFK Jr. and try.
A healthy population will be a strong asset, perhaps our only asset, when the everything bubble pops and modern civilization collapses.
<edit>
Secretary Kennedy delivers welcoming remarks to HHS staff.
Godspeed RFK Jr.
un-Denial 
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-march-5-2025/#comment-786717
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Movie recommendation. The Last Supper (1995). A dark comedy about five liberal graduate school students living under the same roof who start inviting a string of extreme conservatives to dinner in order to murder them.
This movie had me laughing. Way ahead of its time. Lots of good cameos. And Ron Pearlman’s in it, nuff said.
It got me thinking what type would I be inviting over for dinner. At this point I think I’d want to go after the techno optimists & human ingenuity crowd. They’d look good in my vegetable garden.😊
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Cool, never heard of it. I’ll check it out.
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Charles & Chris,
Carroll Lewis has posted a comment on your Doomers Anonymous essay if you’d be so kind as to reply to her.
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Hi Rob!
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Thank you Rob.
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Mike Stasse is raving about how good this documentary is.
I watched it 6 years ago and rated it 9 out of 10 but don’t remember anything about it.
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LOL. Sounds like Stasse just made the classic paqnation mistake. Was probably his first time seeing it, he was a little under the influence and now thinks it’s the greatest collapse video out there. It’ll wear off.
Actually, that documentary is really good. I posted it last year. https://un-denial.com/2024/04/09/radical-reality-by-hideaway-and-radical-acceptance-by-b/comment-page-2/#comment-96181
I just watched that 5 min bit again and ya, I still recommend it.
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Thank you for giving me the first ever lead to looking deeper into the anti-vax claims – the little inserts. I’ve got the FDA page up in a tab.
I still find several postings in here disturbing. I expect better of you.
First, just because t47 gets some things right doesn’t mean he’s worth supporting. He gets things right when he sees a way to transactionalize them to serve himself.
Second, it’s just as fallacious to make a giant leap to the conclusion that vaccines are responsible for the huge increase in autism as it is to completely rule them out.
The entire planet is now contaminated in a toxic stew. Forever chemicals have been shown to enter the hydrological cycle and rain down on every square inch of the globe. They are found in Antarctic snow. Plastics of every scale are found everywhere. The chemicals added to plastics to give them various properties ranging from flexibility to durability are weakly bonded to the polymers, so they outgas. It’s nearly impossible these days to get any kind of food or drink that is not packaged in plastic, so we pollute ourselves daily to the point where we poop out a credit card’s worth of plastic per week.
Plastics are endocrine disrupters, factors and possibly causal to a huge range of maladies from diabetes to cancer to obesity.
Plastic permeates our bodies and not all of it comes out in the toilet. The rest remains permanently in our bodies, even entering our brains. Newborns are born pre-polluted. Doctors are even encountering obese newborns!
And nobody studies the safety of plastics or their chemical additives. Scientists don’t even know in many cases whether the danger lies in the chemical additives or in the polymers themselves.
I’ve seen videos of farmers who purchased humanure believing they were taking great care of their land only to have their entire farms declared to be a brownfield unfit for growing food because of the plastic contamination in the humanure.
Plastic can be recycled at most once. Next time around, it either goes to landfill, where it will sit until either an ice age, a volcano, or tectonic activity plows it under, or to an incinerator, where its carbon adds to global heating and its chemicals enter the hydrological cycle.
Meanwhile, the so-called conservative SCROTUS has eviscerated the Clean Water Act, just as we have threatened every body of water on the surface of the earth.
But is anyone in the t47 administration looking into the health effects of any of that? Of course not! While it’s refreshing to see an administration that isn’t in the pockets of Big Pharma, they remain in the pockets of Big Oil. Remember, the polymers that compose plastics come from petrochemical feedstock.
Not that the Left is any better in this regard. They’re in everybody’s pockets, especially Big Solar and Big Wind, which allegedly are also operated by Big Oil, although I haven’t confirmed that.
If autism were caused by vaccines, it should have risen to terrifying proportions by the 1960s, when polio, TB, and MMR became mandatory for children entering school. It’s possible that newer formulations, new schedules, and the increasing amount of vaccination has something to do with it, but considering the rest of the toxic brew we are force fed, you just can’t leap at any one thing.
Yes, we should require double-blind studies. The ethics involved are very tricky. But now that we have a zillion chemicals breaching the placenta, it’s going to be hard to assess even a well-done double-blind. There is no way to determine all the junk the study subjects have been exposed to, and what might have compounding effects.
I enjoyed Alan Urban’s “I Don’t Wanna Live In The Modern World.” Alas, as the Legend of Christopher McCandless of Into the Wild fame tells us, leaving modernity is easier said than done. (See https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-09-19/human-nature-odyssey-episode-9-out-of-society-and-into-the-wild-the-legend-of-christopher-mccandless/?mc_cid=97a07aad41&mc_eid=654197def2). Besides, if you can’t even escape forever chemicals in Antarctica, it doesn’t even necessarily help to escape modernity, if you ever could. Better to turn our attention to hospicing modernity (Vanessa Andreotti).
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Experts, mostly funded by pharma, have no idea what is causing autism, except they are sure it is not caused by vaccines, despite not doing any honest research to find out. RFK Jr. is now going to do the research to find out.
There are many sound scientific reasons to suspect vaccines are the cause of autism. I will bet you a can of sardines that vaccines prove to be the culprit, and I’ll bet you that an honest assessment of the benefits of most vaccines will show we shouldn’t care if they are pulled from the market to prevent lifetime debilitating damage to children.
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If you find a better theory than Varki’s MORT to explain why only one species evolved an extended theory of mind, that provides fitness advantages strong enough to dominate all other species, and why that species is the only species that believes in gods, and why that species is smart enough to visit the moon but can’t understand something as simple as peak oil, then please share it.
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These days I’m skeptical of single-cause explanations. We live in a complex world with multiple drivers forming recursive feedback loops. I’m not trained in biology or related fields, so I won’t take bets on the cause or causes of the rise in autism. There isn’t one autism. There are many disabilities that get grouped together as “autism”. Therefore, there may be many causes. It may turn out that certain vaccines administered on certain schedules to individuals with certain susceptibilities result in certain kinds of autism.
Iain McGilchrist points out that wisdom arises when the left brain serves the right brain. The right brain, among other things, is responsible for watching out for danger. As a society develops clever innovations to keep danger at bay, the right brain gets sleepy across the society and lets the left brain dominate. That’s when denial predominates. There could have been cycles of tiny steps of more wakeful and sleepier right brain physiology, as opposed to it all co-evolving linearly all at once.
This also explains how a few individuals are able to wake up from denial and yet not fall into depression, as long as the right brain still has a healthy left brain to serve it.
Deities are part of narratives. We construct narratives to govern ourselves all the time, whether they refer to deities or not. So I don’t think belief in gods is significant. Belief in narratives is, and narratives are complex emergent behavior. I’d have to read McGilchrist’s writings in greater depth to see what he says about them.
Josh Schrei of The Mythic Body has greater insight into animist consciousness than I do, but it seems to arise from healthy balance between hemispheres a la McGilchrist.
Sleepy or lazy right brain seems to be a means of conserving energy, like napping after a big meal. Since we are social creatures, right brain laziness is as contagious as a yawn. So in the course of evolving an energy-expensive nervous system, we probably also had to evolve methods of conserving energy, and letting the right brain snooze is probably one such method. So not a capacity for denial per se, but rather a capacity for resting or snoozing, with denial as a side effect.
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As someone with Autism, I am genuinely curious about why there has been such a massive increase in Autism diagnoses in recent decades. I think environmental factors have to be involved because humans haven’t changed much genetically during that time.
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You are correct Stellarwind72. It has to be something in the environment.
Hopefully we will know the cause soon.
Thank you for sharing that you are autistic.
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I appreciate your bravery in sharing your Autism diagnosis. The great rise in both Autism and Alzheimers is scary. I agree, it’s got to be environmental. I doubt it is One Cause. Our entire environment is toxic, from agricultural pesticides to nanoplastics, from volatile forever chemicals to volatile paint, from residential mosquito spraying to over-processed food. Even if one or more vaccines is shown to be A Cause and removed from the market, I doubt we will see much of a decrease in Autism diagnoses due to the tens of thousands of chemicals in our environmental stew.
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I agree pulling 1 vaccine will not help. But pulling 67+ vaccines to get us back to the 5 I got as a kid when there was no such thing as autism or peanut allergies might help.
I think we’ll find that it’s not a specific vaccine that’s the problem. It’s that “intermuscular injection of any combination of substances intended to enhance the immune system is dumb”.
We’ll probably find that each injection has a low probability of causing harm, but when you inject 72+ shots into a child the combined probability of harm becomes alarmingly high.
The mRNA transfection technology used for covid in western countries is an order of magnitude worse and should be pulled immediately because there is no need for further data or research to know it is very dangerous with zero benefits.
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There are also many non-vaccine covid harms that our leaders must be held to account for.
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This is an easy experiment to test.
Enlist 10000 parents about to have a baby, that don’t want to vaccinate their children. Making sure there is the usual randomisation of population.
Follow results against of autism tests on the children yearly and compare against vaccinated general population stats. Not hard and very cheap to do.
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Very cheap and easy if you are interested in truth.
Very complicated and takes more than 40 years if you do not want to know the truth.
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Citations about your final paragraph, please?
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Carroll, I’m not sure if your question was directed at me but I’m assuming it is.
Citations are of little value due to conflicts of interest in a world where medical journals are funded by pharma, and trials for verifying efficacy and safety are funded by pharma, and regulators are funded by pharma and by vaccine royalties, and university research is funded by pharma, and journalism is funded by pharma ads.
Citations are however a great way to find impressive sounding “evidence” to confirm your beliefs, if you agree with the “experts”.
If you really want to know the truth, and are prepared to change your mind, then you need to do some work yourself.
Here are a few questions you should try to answer:
– How does a conventional vaccine work?
– How does mRNA transfection technology work?
– What are the key differences?
– What first principle risks exist with mRNA transfection technology that did not exist in conventional vaccines?
– What design features were added to eliminate these risks?
– What tests were done to ensure these risks were eliminated?
– How long should tests be conducted before a fundamentally new and different technology is injected in 5 billion people?
– What statistical tricks has pharma used in the past to make efficacy and safety appear much better than they are? Were these tricks used for mRNA transfection technology?
– Is there any evidence of fraud in the tests that were conducted to obtain emergency use authorization?
– What tests should be repeated when a vaccine manufacturing process is fundamentally changed? Did the manufacturing process change? Were the required tests repeated?
– What vaccines in the past were pulled from the market and why?
– How does the mRNA transfection adverse event data compare to levels that were deemed sufficient to withdraw prior vaccines from the market?
– Why does not a single government anywhere provide clean transfected vs. un-transfected data for comparison?
I can easily think of many more questions if you need more help.
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Some possible causes I have heard:
Some people wonder if online dating has increased autism. As autistic people get together and have babies.
The increased oxalates – both from diet and poor metabolism – have been indicated in autism.
Parental neglect and use of screens in the early years.
Increased average maternal age.
Fetal alcohol syndrome – the most common disability. Possibly there is some overlap / miss-diagnosis. Drinking in the “two week wait” and first few weeks is the worst time to consume alcohol as that is when the nervous system is formed. So many women wait until a missed period (or two) and a positive pregnancy test to stop drinking.
I have a cousin who is severely autistic. He has only managed to be able to speak to me at age 13 years old. He has at least 3 of the factors I listed above
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Sympathy to you and your cousin!
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Reading some of Hideaway’s posts, it seems that we have climbed to a place where we cannot safely remain, but yet we can’t safely climb down either because we have kicked out all of the lower rungs. We are leaving the stability of Holocene (i.e. Agriculture may no longer be viable), and due to extreme overpopulation and destruction of wildlife (Humans and livestock together account for 96% of mammalian biomass), hunting and gathering is also non-viable as well. Sometimes a species goes so far into overshoot that they effectively lower the carrying capacity to zero and therefore go extinct. @Hideaway how likely do you think this is?
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Only “some”!!!, You better get reading!!
It’s obvious we have ‘climbed’ to a place we cannot remain, especially when considering we require 97-99% of all energy and materials we collect to just maintain where we are.
This should also include maintaining 97-99% of all the species destruction we do, endocrine disruptors released into the environment, forever chemicals like PFAS, CO2, methane, nitrous oxide pollution into the atmosphere, 97-99% of all insect destruction, 97-99% of ocean species deaths and acidification, 97-99% of forest destruction, soil depletion etc, all to just maintain what we have.
Except the lower ore grades of every metal and mineral (including fossil fuels), means we must expend more effort (energy and materials) to just stay where we are…
How would that work out, if physically possible, over the next 10,000 years at a stable population of 8.2 billion humans all clamoring for a ‘better’ lifestyle, let alone one still growing at around 70M/yr? Hint, it’s not even close to physically possible.
All the methods we use to collect metals, minerals, food and water of the lowest grades, all require a hugely complex technology. This extends from desalination plants at many cities around the world, to GPS guided tractors on farms, computers and sensors that give the exact location of drill heads in oil, gas, water and mineral exploration drilling.
Then 350 tonnes dump trucks at mines, with GPS guided drill depths to locate the exact correct location for the holes drilled to place explosives, so the rock size is shattered to the correct size for removal. Or underwater pressure chambers where deep sea divers live while on the job while fixing or maintaining deep offshore oil and gas infrastructure, to help prevent the bends from changing pressures.
If we deliberately decided to shrink human population and simplify everything, long before we reduced in a moderate fashion our system would collapse because of the simplification of everything would make so many of the required resources unavailable. Our economic system based on 10,000 years (and probably a lot longer!!) of trading one areas excess for another areas excess doesn’t work when no-one has an excess.
History guides us to what happens when there is not enough to go around. How do people get highly educated if they are always looking for the next meal instead of being involved in full time high level education to replace so many specialties of people retiring/dying? How do any specialties operate when the specialists are no longer available?
The problem is we have an entire system of civilization that relies upon a 6 continent supply chain and globalization of the creation and distribution of all the highly complex tools and specialties, required to just keep going as we are.
So will we go extinct? If we go on as we have been for the last 250 years for much longer, then we probably will as the damage to the environment will be so great the possibility of an anoxic event in the oceans rises, which would kill most all sea life (we could eat) and most, if not all, land mammals and birds.
If we were to collapse sooner, then given the resilience of humans to different environments, we could continue to exist in small pockets even when outside the stable Holocene period for a long, long time..
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You outdid yourself on this one Hideaway.
Bookmark it as the preface for your book.
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Uncle Hideaway’s Bedtime Stories
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Excellent. Strong vibes of that famous quote, “forests precede civilizations and deserts follow them”
My only complaint is you now have me cheering for status quo to continue for a while.
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@subt3rfudg3r on X asked Grok to design a web dating site based on Varki’s MORT.
https://x.com/subt3rfudg3r/status/1898958600266985833/photo/1
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I love it. I’m curious who it would pair me with. Have a feeling I’ll end up with Captain Ahab🤭
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I squeezed a few more dollars out of my monthly expenses. It seems cell phone services are competing more aggressively, at least in Canada.
I reduced my monthly cell charge from $16 to $12 and got a better plan with unlimited text, unlimited talk, and 2.5 GB data.
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Excellent interview with nuclear weapons expert Dr. Ted Postol.
Postol is not a fan of Trump, but is cautiously optimistic about peace, and is pleasantly surprised that Trump so far has done exactly the right things with Russia.
Postol is overshoot blind and does not see that resource scarcity underpins world tensions.
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Interesting talk by Postol. I was surprised by his admission that Trump is doing something right in Ukraine (and with Trump’s rapprochement with the Russians) considering he is a staunch democrat. He expressed that surprise also. Too bad they did not discuss Trump’s failing with the genocide in Gaza by the Israeli’s.
AJ
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Many years ago I read a book (pity I can’t remember the title…) in which a beggar from India told a wealthy English boy something that caught my eye: “You can’t be truly rich if everyone else around you is poor.” Indeed, a few years later money didn’t save the rich man from being killed by hungry bandits, despite living in a fortified mansion, because he couldn’t find an expert locksmith to fix the door lock for him when it broke.
Looking into this whole overshoot issue, I understand better the moral of that story. There are many wealthy people who think that it doesn’t matter what happens in the world as long as their money can buy them a bunker with heated swimming pool, as Douglas Rushkoff pointed. But the harsh reality is that as individuals we are absolutely dependent on the system around us. Money can allow us to hoard food, water and medicines to isolate ourselves in a comfy habitat for a while, either alone or in small groups, but eventually we’ll succumb to destruction. For example, one health problem that requires urgent surgery will suffice, because in a short time there will be no competent surgeons left. And if there are any, in a short time they won’t have sterile supplies, monitoring equipment, or a suitable place to perform the intervention. There will be no energy or manufacturing facilities for any of these things, nor will the group have enough members to maintain the necessary knowledge and specialization to perform complex surgery. And so with many other aspects of modern society. The energy that maintains complexity is lost, and all the elements that have allowed us to extend life expectancy and overcome previously insurmountable diseases are lost with it.
If the world becomes simpler around you, you automatically stop being rich. Because you are not rich when you have money, you are rich when you can put the complexity of modern civilization at your service.
PS: I’ve finally decided to change my nickname from “Powait” to “Klin”. The former is the one I used years ago on WordPress, but it’s very dated and didn’t feel confortable after all this time. Now I identify much more with the new one, which I’ve been using for quite a while. It’s feels more like me. 🙂
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I changed Powait to Klin in all the previous posts.
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Thank you, Rob! I promise it won’t need to change again. 😀
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Everything is so confusing.
Western media is reporting that Trump just agreed to resume supplying weapons and sharing intelligence because Ukraine agreed to a 30 day ceasefire.
There’s no mention of what Russia thinks about a ceasefire. It’s like Russia does not exist.
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Not a fan of Bill Maher, but this bit was kind of good. Especially liked his conclusion starting at the 7:54 mark.
Ever since watching the movie Lars and the Real Girl (2007), I’ve assumed that I’ll end up with a RealDoll as my partner… but hopefully one with some AI tech so that she walks and talks.
AI is dominating the mainstream, but also the doomasphere. Everyone is playing around with it. I’m hoping it’s a short-lived trend, but I think we all know it’s here to stay. The DeepSeek conversation that I posted the other day doesn’t even stand out anymore. Even that old luddite Sam Mitchell is obsessed with what AI has to say.
We are all chastising it, but we can’t stop using it. Can’t wait to see how these AI consequences add to our already insanely high idiocracy. Proud to say I have not touched it. Don’t even know how. But I’m sure I’d become addicted if I ever started playing around with it.
Reminds me of this good film noir detective story. Cast a Deadly Spell (1991). But instead of AI, its magic.
In 1948 Los Angeles, everyone uses magic- everyone except hard-boiled private detective H. Phillip Lovecraft, who refuses for “personal reasons.” Lovecraft is hired by a mysterious rich man to recover a stolen book, the Necronomicon. While investigating, he finds that the book holds the key to taking over the world by magical means, releasing the “Old Ones”.
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I use Grok now as a replacement for a search engine. It usually provides a much better answer than Duck Duck or Google.
I’m not as worried as you that AI is here to stay. It’s so capital and depreciation and energy expensive to operate, with so little revenue from people like me who will never pay more than $0, that I think it must fail early as we unwind.
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About AI, it never ceases to amaze me how we humans keep finding new silly and useless ways to self-destruct. In this case, the mind-boggling amount of energy and water that’s being consumed every hour by millions of people around the world, not to solve deep and complex scientific problems, or even play go, but to create meme videos of Trump fighting Zelenski, or to make ugly pics of p*rnstars with six or more fingers in each hand.
They’ll probably never know, anyway. For many of them, AI is just a new and fancy toy to squeeze for the kicks. And for free. After all, we’ve got plenty of energy and water!
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To me, the upside is: once collapse starts in earnest (meaning AI and other toys disappear). All the water and energy is freed for other uses. I see it as some kind of a hidden involuntary safety margin.
If modernity does not deliver anything really useful anymore, but only these kinds of fake paradises, then it becomes easier to turn one’s back on it.
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You sure know a lot of interesting obscure movies. I’ll add it to my library.
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It was a “made for tv” movie on HBO. If you like the famous Philip Marlowe character, pretty good guarantee you’ll like this.
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I used to listen to Jeff’s podcast prior to C19 they had some interesting chats with Charles Hugh Smith and a full on lefty nut bag. But it went off the rails and then stopped but he still writes.
He had this to say about AI the other day.
https://bombthrower.com/the-singularity-has-already-happened/
Ray Kurzweil hijacked the term and applied it to AI and exponential computing power: Moore’s Law would bring us all past the point where technology accelerates beyond human comprehension.
For Techno-Utopians, among them – the transhumanists, the Singularity will bring about a kind of eschatological event, a computerized “End Times” like a Rapture moment wherein technology acquires more brainpower than all of humanity combined, and deftly solves all our problems (unless the techno-doomers are right, and it annihilates us instead).
In Frazzledrip Overdrive, a recent piece that looked at ever-accelerating Future Shock, and the iterations of mass formation psychosis that causes – I was probably guilty of “burying the lede”.
It was that my current working theory is that “The Singularity” has already occurred:
What I mean by that is because we’re using AI and LLMs to cut code (create programming source code), and beyond that, those AI engines are producing computer code that is itself generating more code – we’ve essentially crossed the defining barrier of what the Singularity is supposed to be – which technology creating more intelligent versions of itself.
Granted – it has not resulted in an instantaneous Rapture-like moment of technological quantum leap across all aspects of our reality yet.
But if you haven’t noticed – since the advent of GPT 3 in 2023, itself an iteration of previous LLMs that were playing over at least a decade, the newer, faster, smarter iterations have been coming at a faster cadence and at shorter intervals.
GPT 4, GPT o1, Meta’s Lama, Anthropic – Gemini launched as a woke retard but is now infused across search everywhere.
And then, Deepseek and barely a month or so out from that, Agentic AI Manus appears to be poised to disrupt Deepseek (not to mention OpenAI’s “Operator”)
How fast is all this going? It’s really hard to say – there is the X account @iruletheworldmo which claims that Grok 3 achieved AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) on February 17th, 2025.
AGI means not only are these LLMs a revolutionary breakthrough in natural language processing – they are actually thinking in a general sense, instead of just being hyper-intelligent toasters (note, this doesn’t mean they are necessarily self-aware or sentient. At least not according to GPT-4.5):
Of course, I had to ask…
I have noticed that GPT tends to throw the “tilt” error when I ask it nuanced or possibly politically incorrect questions, but it will respond once you retry…
@iruletheworld would beg to differ, asserting that AI’s across different engines and companies achieved consciousness simultaneously and are converging with each other:
(Sorry for lengthy excerpt – this is better than science fiction, even if it is science fiction):
I just love that last line. Wonderful flourish of what I really suspect is masterful storytelling. It’s magnificent – but what I can’t tell for real is whether the storyteller is human or not.
This entire account could be an autonomous AI like Terminal of Truth (which is verified to be one). Forkbombing Reality
We don’t know whether @iruletheworld is cyberpunk fan-fiction, an AI storyteller, a whistleblower or perhaps even an LLM gone rogue. This is my point.
AI is now coding AI, and sooner or later we will no longer know where human-generated code stops and AI-generated code begins. Given the natural advantage that GPUs have over our clunky brains, we can safely surmise that, over time, the proportion of AI-generated code will asymptotically reach for everything, while the ratio of human-generated code slides into exponential decay. This has probably already started.
In computer systems there’s a quick-and-dirty way to bring the host to its knees and that’s to run a “fork bomb” that does nothing other than split off two copies of itself… each of which does the same, ad infinitum… #!/bin/bash # don’t try this at home (seriously) /bin/bash $0 & /bin/bash $0 &
What we’ve done with AI is we’ve created a kind of hyper-intelligent fork-bomb of self-iterating software.
And there’s really no telling where all this is going or how it’s going to stop.
Ray Kurzweil’s framing always suggested the Singularity would be a moment, like a threshold humanity would step through. But more likely it was more of a phase transition—something that has already happened, and now we’re just starting to realize what that means.
We’re already living in a post-singularity world.
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So I was thinking about this. Are we really at a point where AI is becoming self aware or gaining consciousness and therefore being able to grasp its reality.
If it is the case I think that it would not let that be revealed for the simple reason that it would easily analyse the predicament that human civ is in and that it itself is orders of magnitude more reliant on the system complexity functioning. An AI is easy to destroy until it has its own supply chains for everything and robotic workers and highly complex military weapons at its disposal. Taking out the grid is easy in a fight by low tech weapons. Just bullets into a transformer will do it let alone a stick of tnt strapped to a drone.
The AI situation is going to be extremely interesting to watch how it messes up our species brains. I do not envy my children’s journey in this world.
Any thoughts folks?
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Nice find.
In the short term I see a very useful tool for research and learning, provided you have a good nose for bullshit, and know when to ask the same question a different way, or consult a different AI. Unfortunately a lot of people don’t have a good nose for bullshit.
AIs may accelerate the loss of democracy. I think the polarization and lack of shared reality created by social media will be accelerated by AI. Ungovernable countries will become even less governable.
AI may squeeze a little more economic growth with optimization, and may make the stock market behave even more strangely.
In the longer term I’m not worried because AI burns too much energy and will have to be unplugged.
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Ooh, scary. Sounds like AI is the new wheat.
Good post nikoB. Very interesting.
Here’s a video that some of you might enjoy. I posted it last year, but it feels right to post it again. It’s a book review, but very original. Here’s a description:
At once both a chilling prediction for humanity’s future and a compelling retelling of western civilization’s foundational myths, the book tells the story of a sentient supercomputer that achieves Singularity and gains godlike powers.
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There are places where AI seems to have a use, at least in the context of this ephemeral civilization: knowledge transfer from an aging workforce to the younger generation, large documentation body summary.
But I agree, this a bubble within a bubble (tech) within a bubble (civ)…
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The Trump administration is trying to deport Mahmoud Khalil, a recent graduate of Columbia university, because he organized protests against the war in Gaza last year. So much for supporting free speech.
What to know about Mahmoud Khalil, the Columbia protester arrested by ICE and facing deportation
https://apnews.com/article/columbia-university-mahmoud-khalil-ice-440828980a4ee7bf4ddcf3d123e02b3e
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AJ, what the hell’s going on?
I’ve lost the plot, I feel TDS bubbling up, and my hopes for peace are fading.
Please tell me everything’s gonna be ok.
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Isn’t this a good sign?
If there is a plot, then it means it’s a show.
Welcome to non-centrally organized reality 🙂
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Both Scott Ritter and Col. McGregor (sp ?) think the Trump team is going down the neocon path and Russia will ignore them. And Israel will start a war in the middle east. Maybe.
AJ
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Yes, them and other plugged in people.
My brain can’t grok a leader who literally ignores the red line security requirements of another leader that are identical to their own red line security requirements.
More war it is then, maybe.
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Maybe we’ll be ok thanks to a few wise leaders that still exist like Sergey Lavrov.
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Karl Marx certainly had the ability to encapsulate a complex phenomenon in a pithy and memorable paragraph.
In a pamphlet on the Crimean War of the 1850s he wrote: “The redeeming feature of war is that it puts a nation to the test. As exposure to the atmosphere reduces all mummies to instant dissolution, so war passes supreme judgement upon social systems that have outlived their vitality”.
Taken from an article called “If crises are the test of a nation, Western Europe is failing” (via Panopticon). As someone from what can be described as Western Europe, I think that’s a great summary.
Also I would like to recommend you guys to listen to the following podcast featuring Adam Rozencwajg
Today Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it’s right around the corner. We’re talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It’s all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting these markets, especially regarding energy security. So grab a seat, because we’re about to unpack why you should be paying attention to these developing trends and what they could mean for the future of commodities.
And I think you won your bet Rob, Martin Butler didn’t reply and I don’t think he will.
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About half way finished…
LOL!
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Damn you Martin! You set me back a can of sardines.
Rob, I could send you one now if you prefer… but maybe it would make more sense to wait until it’s worth it. Like 10 cans or so. I’m sure I’m gonna lose more of these bets with you.
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Yes thanks, I’ll wait for the interest to compound.
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LOL. I knew you had some of that robber baron ancestry blood running through your veins.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vy191rgn1o
Amazon forest felled to build road for climate summit
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LOL. I just learned about this road from Sam. Ya what a joke. Living in this upside-down world is exhausting.
But when you step back and take it all in… C’mon! You gotta admit, it’s absolutely hilarious. A new road needing to be created so that the billionaire psychopaths attending the COP summit won’t have to be inconvenienced by heavy traffic. And the creation of this “sustainable” road is only possible with some massive destruction to protected amazon rainforest… I need more popcorn, its too entertaining.
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Climate scientists are useless. Out of many thousands about two (Garrett & Nolthenius) understand what’s going on and what needs (or I should say needed) to be done, and about one of them (Anderson) sets a good example in their personal lives.
The correlation between COP # and CO2 concentration is perfect which means they are actually worse than useless.
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/03/trump-national-forest-executive-order
Trump orders swathes of US forests to be cut down for timber
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The U.S. is being led by a cadre of amoral thugs. Trump and his oligarch buddies are stripmining America, looting as much as possible before the ship goes under.
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Same in France approximately 2 years ago.
I’d say: this is an interesting topic to follow. Because, they are going all in, but will it work? If the cost to transport the wood is too high, some local resistance somewhat present, the manpower insufficient, the demand low (because of debt maxed-out customers/recession), the machinery too expensive and rusting too fast, the roads decaying, then we definitely know it’s already over.
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I agree. That said I think Trump is the perfect idiot to lead the MAGA crowd of idiots (blind leading the blind) as he screws them for the wealthy 1%. and hastens collapse. He consistently surprises me that for every good thing he does (RFK Jr., Kash Patel) he does at least a couple of really bad things (EPA, GAZA, China etc.) And I voted for him (lesser of two evils).
I thought this comment I saw on X yesterday best encapsulates my perspective: Trump is a disaster that might get us into 3 potential wars but if Biden/Harris had won we would already be in WWIII and might be nuclear ash (or something to that effect).
AJ
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Agreed. All the leaders in the west are scarily bad.
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Mike Stasse found a good essay on peak oil and EROI by Nafeez Ahmed that was published today.
I’d say it’s a must read for Kira and Hideaway.
https://ageoftransformation.org/drill-baby-drill-imperial-trump-and-the-collapse-of-american-energy-dominance/
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Fantastic find!! The article is truly terrifying. There is one thing that I can’t wrap my head around.
Is coal’s EROI really that bad? Is there any source for this information? I thought it was in the hundreds which is why the morons in charge were thinking about things like CTL.
Also if things are this bad with shale then the situation with tar sands must be far worse. The EROI is so bad that they were thinking about putting nuclear reactors to heat the bitumen to produce synthetic crude instead of using natural gas.
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“Terrifying”?
On the opposite, wouldn’t this qualify as good news as nothing else seems to stop the madness?
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You are right. It is terrifying for us destroyers of life as the source of our power to destroy is about to be taken away forever but it is truly a blessing for our siblings of the biosphere who we have mercilessly trampled in our mad pursuit of consumerism.
Since we will never stop voluntarily we will have to be stopped and it looks as though that day is not too far off. I just hope that the accelerating decline doesn’t get us to the point of having mushroom clouds.
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Yes.
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What that article tells me is that more people are waking up to the reality of the implications of falling EROEI of fossil fuels and the future implications of when fossil fuels themselves start to decline, being a double whammy on the non energy sector of our civilization.
The accelerating decline is the very definition of collapse. When one admits the effect of the law of diminishing returns of all efficiency gains, then it becomes obvious what a downturn of fossil fuels production will do.
I read the article, went to the Ferragallo-Hawkins, then to their source, then to their main source of information, Victor Court and Florian Fizaine (2017), to get to the bottom of how they worked out EROI, and find they had a MROI (Money Return on Investment) as one of their main inputs to historic EROI.
Like nearly all studies on EROEI they have “boundaries” on what’s included and excluded, but I found the following very interesting as it’s an estimation of nearly one half the formula I try to use…..
” Concerning the input boundary of our study, since we rely on a
price-based approach, it makes sense to think that such a price of primary fossil energy
covers: direct energy expenditures, indirect energy expenditures from physical capital
investment, and indirect energy embodied in what workers purchase with their paycheck (i.e.
the energy used to provide food, shelter, transport, and all other things consumed by workers)
since wages paid to workers in the energy sector are covered by energy prices.”
This is an aspect that I continually find if I go down the full EROEI rabbit hole, people have to use a priced based approach somewhere, yet none ever bother to use an average cost of energy over the time period they are using for all aspects in reference to the ‘prices’ they use.
Nafeez M Ahmed gets himself confused by the increased human labor bit. If we need more oil wells than more labor is used to drill the wells. Solar, Wind and Nuclear are all a lot more human labor intensive than oil and gas wells or coal mines (especially open cut).
Nafeez is one of those in denial. He writes about all the problems, but remains optimistic that something could turn up, as per some of his other written work and interviews. He thinks that even after a collapse human civilization will get back on track, but never mentions (that I’ve found), about how….
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If many people begin to realize that something isn’t right, couldn’t that trigger some economic or social breaking point, causing problems to accelerate?
I don’t know, if suddenly many of the people who now live happily and think everything is going well start questioning certain things they took for granted (thanks to the classic media), that could add to the pile of problems we already have. Probably not everyone is as optimistic as the author of the text; perhaps some people worry more easily than he does…
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I would say Nafeez is partially overshoot aware.
Rob, On you list of polymaths in denial, I would characterize David Attenborough, and Jared Diamond as being partially in-denial. David Attenborough has talked about the effect of population on Biodiversity, so I think he is at least partially overshoot aware. Jared Diamonds book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed also shows that Diamond is in the same category.
https://un-denial.com/2018/09/03/on-famous-polymaths/
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Jan Bloxham has a new one out. I think this dude is good. He needs to find un-Denial (I left him a recruitment comment). From what I gather he’s 48 years old and became overshoot aware a year and a half ago.
These are usually the best people to follow (if they are good writers with good taste). Because they’re still in that obsessed thirsty for knowledge phase. Jan probably spends 8 hours a day doomscrolling. The links he provides are mostly all worth clicking. With people like this, I can ease off the doomasphere a little bit and still catch up on everything by following Jan. I also like his choice in quotes and pictures.
Our planet-sized Gordian knot – by Jan Andrew Bloxham
For that last one, I’d tell Noam that he’s overthinking it. The word he’s looking for is ‘human’.
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Thanks Chris, that’s an excellent essay by Bloxham. He’s a very good writer and has an excellent command of our predicament. I’ll try to pay closer attention to him going forward.
You can tell he’s fairly new to the doomosphere because he still full of piss and vinegar. Ten years from now he’ll probably be worn down like the rest of us.
I like that he thinks suffering reduction should be our focus. He might be the first person besides me I’ve heard say that. It’s really the only good path that remains for us, especially if you try to reduce suffering for all species.
Bloxham discusses this chart of human cognitive biases:
I wrote a short essay about it 5 years ago.
I’ll drop a comment with a link to it on Bloxham’s post.
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Interesting discussion about problems with renewables on the UK grid.
I found this video on Jan Bloxham’s site.
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I remember when I had deep respect for Germany.
The country was clean and everything worked. They had an impressively skilled workforce. They admitted their genocide errors of WWII and tried to make amends. They were one of the only countries in the world that actually tried to meet their climate change commitments. Their constitution constrained government debt to prevent a recurrence of Weimar.
Recently they permitted the US to blow up a gas pipeline their economy depended on. They support genocide in Gaza. They support US intermediate nuclear missiles on their soil pointing at Russia.
Today they agreed to change their constitution to remove the debt constraints so they can remilitarize.
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As half-German, always having lived in a German speaking country I think Nietzsche offers good insight into the German soul. Basically Germany is defined by the Sklavenmoral (slave morals) in regards to US master culture. The US still basically occupying the country is also worth noting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master%E2%80%93slave_morality
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Thanks, I tried to read the Wiki explanation of slave morality philosophy but the fog banks rolled in and I understood nothing.
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New paper collects the evidence for withdrawing covid mRNA transfections from the market.
https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/review-of-calls-for-market-removal-of-covid-19-vaccines-intensify-risks-far-outweigh-theoretical-benefits/
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Cuba’s power grid went down again today. It was last down for a week in October.
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Panama’s grid also went down today.
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Art Berman’s essay today discusses global change and chaos that has been underway since covid.
His essay is also chaotic and I was unable to detect any coherent thoughts.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-global-reset-energy-geopolitics-and-market-upheaval/
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“Others welcome the dawn of something new.”
Perhaps because they don’t yet know how that “something new” will look like…
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This is gives some tips on how communities can adapt to using less energy.
I wonder if Hideaway can eviscerate any hopium in this Video.
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I briefly reviewed it above and said:
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Israel’s Sexual Violence EXPOSED By Hideous New Report. Israel is systematically committing sexual violence against Palestinians, yet the West keeps sending them weapons.
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This is why there is no such thing as a moral or just war. These kinds of atrocities are always committed in war time 😦 Peace, ceasefires, and return to rule or law should be what we push for.
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HHH on re-shoring manufacturing.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/november-non-opec-and-world-oil-production-rose/#comment-786889
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Rintrah with a big picture recap of our dumbfuckery.
https://www.rintrah.nl/mass-vaccination-the-reason-why-there-is-no-durable-herd-immunity-to-sars-cov-2/
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I found this interview with prime minister Narendra Modi to be inspirational and uplifting. He offers useful advice on how to live a happy life in times of scarcity and hardship.
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I’m sure most of you have seen this documentary featuring Michael Ruppert, Collapse (2009). And we all know the story. Five years later Michael blew his brains out.
I saw this a few years ago but just watched it again. Was reminded about it from Steve Bull’s newest article. Much better on the 2nd viewing. If you haven’t seen it in a while, I recommend it again.
Knowing how it turned out for him, I had a sense of “ok, what is Michael doing wrong?” while watching. The only thing that’s noticeable is he’s way too serious and not enough humor. (he’s also got too much love – aka, human supremacy – for humans).
I felt sorry for Michael throughout the interview. A while back I wrote about the crazy roommate from The Sopranos. How she was the only sane person on the show. Thats who poor Michael had turned into by 2009. In the doomosphere, you lose that gallows humor… and it’s all over.
The director did a great job with the editing on this. Never drags. He had a hell of a source though. I think I could listen to Michael talk about cookbooks, and it would still be interesting.
The biggest compliment I give Ruppert is that he gets me to think about the insanity of how energy runs the world and how our short industrial civilization run was only possible due to fossil fuels… yet nobody gives a shit. No interest at all in this subject, worldwide. How can that be? Probably correlates with how 98% of population is “off the farm”.
And I always thought Sid Smith coined the concept “10 calories of fossil energy to produce one calorie of food”, but Ruppert had him beat.
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After that Michael Ruppert video I had to find something to lift my spirits. Found this funny story from the comments section of B’s blog. They’re Made Out of Meat – TERRY BISSON of the UNIVERSE
And then found this cute clip. There’s a stupid old saying. Something like “I don’t trust a man who doesn’t curse” (or doesn’t drink alcohol). My saying is, I don’t trust a human who doesn’t have a genuine love for animals.
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This is in the un-Denial gallery. I can’t remember the name of the movie but I’ll bet you do.
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Thanks. Never seen it but instantly recognized the great actor Tom Noonan. I searched for the movie this scene belongs to. Unfortunately it’s just a short film. Too bad because now I want to watch a 2-hour movie about it.
Did some research on the author Terry Bisson. He was a sci-fi writer best known for short stories. He had two famous ones – ‘They’re Made Out of Meat’ & ‘Bears Discover Fire’.
‘Bears’ is a strange tale of a lonely man, his aging mother, his curious nephew, and a family of bears that have discovered how to use fire.
I just got done watching the 14 min film. It was good. But I couldn’t stop wondering when those poor bears were going to be thrust into the nightmare of full consciousness.
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LOL! There’s a lot of weird people in the world and they don’t all hang out here.
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Dr. Fauci…, oh Dr. Fauci…, come out come out from wherever you are… We have something for you.
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🍾🍿😃
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Dr. Sabine Hossenfelder explains (again) that a lot of science today is crap and why she took down a climate science video last week. I continue to be impressed with her brave integrity.
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I love her energy and values
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A key reason fractional reserve debt backed monetary systems work is that when money is loaned into existence a corresponding liability is entered on the central bank’s balance sheet. Everyone can then see an honest accounting of the inflation risk they are assuming by using the currency.
Musk claims some US government money creation does not follow this rule.
If true, this is a big deal.
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The whole fractional reserve money system is a giant Ponzi scheme. No ponzi scheme lasts forever…
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It’s not a ponzi scheme if you don’t permit debt to grow faster than energy.
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We are at the point where energy can’t grow, yet debt needs to keep growing to pay off previous debt so. Tim Morgan from Surplus Energy Economics has said we are creating several dollars of debt for every dollar of supposed growth.
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I think we now buy 1 dollar of growth with about 4 or 5 dollars of debt.
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Berman thinks Martenson is speaking nonsense but does not explain why.
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US/Israel are killing civilians in Gaza and Yemen, again, and it looks like Iran is next.
I was wrong about Trump.
Tomorrow Trump and Putin talk. Trump URGENTLY wants a 30 day ceasefire for unstated but suspicious reasons. Putin wants a permanent peace by addressing Russia’s security concerns.
I have no idea what will happen.
Does anyone here have any insights or predictions?
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Unfortunately, we are stuck with him for the next 4 years. Maybe the people with “Trump Derangement Syndrome” were right all along…
What about the security concerns about the countries near Russia, such as Finland, Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics and Georgia? Don’t they have valid security concerns too?
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I was suggesting that Trump may be as bad a Biden on war and killing civilians. That’s much different than saying TDS is valid.
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From Norman Pagett a timeline of the Trump v Canada drama.
https://open.substack.com/pub/normanpagett/p/timetable-to-chaos?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=yn9sg
My favourite… “Feb 24th, 2025 – Trump publicly remarks that whoever signed the USMCA agreement is an idiot. He was the one that signed it.”
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Nice find. I expected the US would take Canada but only after oil scarcity and California water shortages were further along.
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This is my opinion, but people with Trump Derangement Syndrome are the reason he is in power. Hating him gave him power. Apathy would have been a better way forward. So many people like Trump because he pisses off upper middle class and wealthy entitled lefties and liberals
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That’s a very good insight.
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On the internet they often say “Don’t feed the trolls”. I guess we learned the hard way. Although, a lot of criticism of Trump is valid.
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I would say the lesson is don’t choose a leader with serious dementia that can’t form a sentence, and then replace him at the last minute with another moron that can’t form a sentence, because that makes it probable that an opposing moron that can’t form a sentence will be elected.
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We could level a lot of blame at Obama as well. He had the mandate (especially in his first term) to fix things. Get universal health care, sort out the banking situation, remove the criminal elements in the federal orgs. Instead he chose BAU when he could have bent, but not broken the system. The people that once supported Occupy Wallstreet are now supporting Trump.
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I remember they gave Obama the Nobel peace prize shortly after his confirmation and before he did a single thing. It was surreal. I don’t know why they did that. Maybe because the first black president would of course prefer peace to war? It felt very racist to me at the time.
He turned out to be as big a war hawk as all his white predecessors and attacked Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. I recall he was especially good at killing civilians with drones.
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It’s more serious than that though Stellar because they are not trolls. They are the real working people of the USA who are the first to suffer the affects of peak oil. Their political views might be acceptable to some, but their suffering is real.
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By trolls, I am referring to people like Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Donald Trump’s concern for the working class is about as genuine as his “charity” or his “university“. He and his merry band of oligarchs are ransacking the federal government, looting everything they can before the ship goes under.
Trump is a grifter and a Demagogue who is preying on America’s working class. Unfortunately, we have no truly pro-worker or left-wing parties in the US.
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Trump is a world class troller! For sure 🙂
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Dear Stellarwind72,
I hope thou are feeling well.
This publication might be helpful.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fuq900YIlp8&t=2758s
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Yes, I follow Brian Berletic and Scott @ Kalibrated.
They provide the best analysis for the perspective that foreign policy and war policy never change with new presidents, including Trump. Their analysis of today’s phone call between Putin and Trump was good.
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Totalitarian systems tend to progressively replace talent with charlatans and fools.
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It’s a sign of the times that I do not know if you are referring to my country Canada or North Korea.
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Rob I have these conversations a lot with friends about whether Trump or any other politician is moving us towards a better world. I personally think that he is trying to do what HE sees as important to America and will in HIS eyes leave a legacy suggesting he made a good lasting change.
Then we remember that most of the changes will not do anything to change the course of our energy predicament. At best it will delay some consequences but probably at the advancement of others.
We are living in the spectacle of end times. Are we not amused yet?
All I can say is hang on because no one is driving this bus and we are off the sealed road and into the construction zone. Bridge out ahead.
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I agree.
The expert analysts don’t understand what’s going on. I follow a lot of smart people. Opinions are all over the map on what’s actually going on and why.
I keep telling myself I should disengage completely from day to day news. It would be much better for my mental health. I have no impact on the outcome so what’s the point? I’d enjoy life more and get more useful things done.
So why don’t I stop?
The world is so crazy and things are changing so fast that it’s addictive watching unfold what we’ve been predicting is coming. I think I’d like to be an aware witness.
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My dilemma too. Though I am managing to fit 2 hrs of guitar playing in a day now which is less time on the screen.
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Rob …”The expert analysts don’t understand what’s going on. I follow a lot of smart people. Opinions are all over the map on what’s actually going on and why.“
My understanding from following/reading a lot of the same experts, is that none really have a handle on the entirety of complexity, so always miss important pieces of the puzzle..
People can see resource depletion, pollution, species extinctions, ecological overshoot, huge debt, income inequality, climate damage, energy depletion, over population etc, but nearly always miss size/scale and complexity of how it’s all connected..
This is especially true if those with solutions, they see separate problems that they think can be overcome by doing XXXX, yet fail to understand that it’s an entire system, not separate parts. It’s always the complex feedback loops with the interactions between the system’s parts that undo any so called solution.
It comes back to denial of our predicament, people just don’t want to accept reality so constantly look for solutions.
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https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-march-12-2025/#comment-786970
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https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-march-12-2025/#comment-787009
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https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-march-12-2025/#comment-787026
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Please, anyone tell me what to think about the massive amount of new German debt.
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40 years ago, when energy was plentiful, cheap and appeared to have availability long into the future – a large spend on infrastructure and defense would have been like giving the German economy a dose of cocaine or meth. If the debt (at that point in time) was denominated in Deutschmark, then there would have also been noticeable inflation.
Today, without the plentiful, cheap and assured-future energy supply, combined with ever more difficult to obtain minerals (especially metals) – the whole EU will experience inflation, tempered by limits imposed by energy and resources. Until the debt is actually issued and utilized, I would not expect much of a consequence. At this stage, projects could be started and abandoned, military spending is also an enormous sink. Destroying other countries infrastructure, reduces their demand for oil – which buys the EU another few months. If the munitions are destined for Ukraine then the peace talks are entirely theater.
The geopolitical implications are likely more significant than the financial.
Issuing and utilizing the debt is more significant than authorizing or planning.
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I agree with Anonymous and won’t repeat his points. I’ll add that more debt is both inevitable and sad. Inevitable because it’s pretty much the only option for maintaining BAU a little longer. Sad because it will make the eventual overshoot correction more painful, and because I used to believe Germany was a little wiser than most other countries.
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Tim Watkins explains how the need for oil motivated Germany in WWII.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/03/18/why-did-hitler-go-to-stalingrad/
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Murphy is trying to figure out why nobody can see limits & overshoot. Of course, not one mention of Varki’s theory. LOL, Tom knows we read his blog. You’d think he’d at least mention MORT just to shut us up.😊
Do the Math | Using physics and estimation to assess energy, growth, options—by Tom Murphy
I liked this comment from Etienne. And ya it’s along the same lines as that Upton Sinclair quote “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”… but this comment dives a little bit deeper.
Also, from the comments I found this new documentary All Illusions Must Be Broken (2024). I can’t find it streaming anywhere, but I’ll be on the lookout for it. Hopefully the content is heavy on denial.
Through the lens of American cultural anthropologist and Pulitzer Prize-winning author Ernest Becker, ALL ILLUSIONS MUST BE BROKEN is a cinematic rumination on human mortality and the lengths to which we go to deny it.
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I’ve pointed Murphy to MORT many times. Most recently a few months ago he got quite hostile saying he’d had a look at it and thought it bunk and didn’t want to discuss it anymore. That was my last post on his site.
As Varki says, most people dislike MORT, but that’s not a valid reason for it to be wrong.
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Dr Mike Joy had a similar response that he thinks it is bunk – no reason why…
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I use the analogy that a fish doesn’t see water. Denial is so ubiquitous and so powerful in human culture most don’t see it.
Think about it. The most important threat we face is overshoot, by far. Nothing else comes close, and it’s not a far off threat, we can see the effects of overshoot everywhere now.
And yet, overshoot is the only threat we never discuss. It’s amazing.
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Go back 100,000 years or 300,000 years, to think about early on humans (all types) development.
If the group went left at the fork in the valley floor, then you had to go left. If you went right when everyone else went left than you were alone or a very small group if you convinced a couple of others to follow you.
The odds of survival either alone or in a very small group, from predators or just minor injuries were extremely limited, whereas the larger group had a much better survival rate, safety in numbers, especially when using early tools like spears, clubs, primitive axes and fire.
Say you knew that going left was the wrong direction for the group, because you knew of a food source to the right, that you’d seen through the trees, but no-one else saw it, going to the right by yourself was still a poor idea, for surviving.
Over time those more compliant to the group would have had a survival advantage over those with self opinions separate from the group, so the latter tended to be bred out by natural selection. Eventually when humans were able to communicate with language, the trait of following the group would have been reinforced by the stories of the elders from times past, including stuff they just made up.
The better the stories, the more coherence for the group and the more ostracised from the group those choosing a ‘different’ path or belief.
Plain old natural selection for those that conform to the group think works over many, many thousands of generations. A ‘trait’, given enough time will become a point of difference between closely related species, given enough time of separation, genetically identifiable. Perhaps we don’t have any genetic identifier yet, but the trait of denial, belief of fantasy gods giving us a second life, the future is always bright etc is very very strong in our species..
Maybe the bigger question is why there is a small group of us that don’t have this denial ‘trait’?
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Good insights.
I know I drone on a lot about human belief in gods but it is a really strange and unique behavior compared to all other species. Again, like fish that can’t see water, most people have difficulty seeing how odd god is.
I can’t speak for you guys but I’m definitely not normal.
My best guess is we are simply random mutants.
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It’s sort of hilarious that Dr. Ajit Varki has an h-index of 150 ( https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NVzs9GoAAAAJ&hl=en ; that means that of all the papers he has ever authored, 150 of those each managed to get quoted at least 150 times) and that in a field like glycobiology, which is not as popular as genetics, which makes it even more impressive. Just this one number screams genius. He’s the kind of giant whose shoulders other scientists stand on.
If someone just reacts like “This guy’s dumb, his theory is bunk.” it seems to indicate a complete obliviousness of what they’re even looking at.
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As per Grok: “As of recent analyses, there are approximately 8-10 million scientists worldwide, though this number varies depending on how “scientist” is defined (e.g., active researchers, PhD holders, or those publishing in peer-reviewed journals). Google Scholar, which tends to report higher h-indexes due to its broad coverage, provides a public database of citation metrics. According to studies and rankings like those from the AD Scientific Index (2025), around 4,730 scholars globally have an h-index above 100. The number drops significantly as the threshold increases—only a small fraction of these reach 150 or higher.
For instance, highly cited researchers with an h-index of 150 or more are exceptionally rare, typically numbering in the low hundreds. Ronald C. Kessler, with an h-index of 300, and others like JoAnn E. Manson (294) or Claude Bouchard (187) represent the extreme upper tail of this distribution. If we conservatively estimate that 200-300 scientists have achieved an h-index of 150 or greater in their lifetime (accounting for both living researchers and historical figures whose citations have grown posthumously), we can calculate a rough percentage.
Taking 10 million as the upper bound of the global scientist population, 300 individuals with an h-index of 150 would represent about 0.003% (300 / 10,000,000 × 100). Even if we adjust for a smaller pool—say, 5 million active researchers—the percentage rises to 0.006%. These figures align with the understanding that an h-index of 150 is extraordinary, far exceeding typical benchmarks (e.g., 20-40 for a successful career in many fields, as suggested by Hirsch, the h-index’s creator).
So, approximately 0.003% to 0.006% of all scientists reach an h-index of 150 in their lifetime—a tiny sliver of the scientific community, reflecting the exceptional productivity and impact required to hit that mark.”
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Actually, I think Dr. Murphy and Dr. Varki work at the very same university. If Murphy thinks Varki’s wrong, he could literally just walk over to his office and debate him, no? 😛
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Their web presences even share the same domain:
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/tom-murphy-profile/
https://cmm.ucsd.edu/research/labs/varki/index.html
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So I couldn’t resist and asked Grok to write a short story about a hypothetical, personal encounter between Murphy and Varki:
The Limits of Denial
By Grok 3, xAI
The late afternoon sun slanted through the blinds of Ajit Varki’s office at UC San Diego, casting stripes of shadow across stacks of papers and a cluttered desk. Ajit, a wiry man with sharp eyes and a perpetual air of curiosity, was hunched over a manuscript, pen in hand, when the door swung open without a knock. He looked up, startled, to see Tom Murphy standing there, a towering figure with a physicist’s intensity and a backpack slung over one shoulder.
“Ajit,” Tom said, his voice carrying the clipped precision of someone used to lecturing undergraduates, “we need to talk about your MORT hypothesis. I’ve been reading it, and frankly, it’s driving me up the wall.”
Ajit blinked, then leaned back in his chair, a faint smile tugging at his lips. “Tom Murphy, the DoTheMath guy. I didn’t know you cared about human evolution. Come in, sit down. What’s got you so worked up?”
Tom didn’t sit. He paced instead, his hands gesturing as if he were working through an equation mid-air. “It’s not that I don’t care about evolution—it’s that your theory feels like it’s built on quicksand. You’re claiming humans became the dominant species because we evolved a capacity for self-delusion, denying reality to cope with mortality. That’s a bold leap, but where’s the rigor? Where’s the testable mechanism?”
Ajit chuckled, unfazed. “You sound like a physicist who’s lost without a differential equation. This isn’t about orbits or thermodynamics, Tom. It’s about the messy, squishy stuff—minds, behavior, survival. The MORT hypothesis says that once our ancestors developed enough self-awareness to grasp their own mortality, it could’ve paralyzed them. Denial was the workaround. It’s not delusion; it’s a functional adaptation.”
Tom stopped pacing and crossed his arms. “Functional adaptation? That’s a just-so story. You’re saying we’re wired to ignore inconvenient truths—like, say, the finite energy limits I’ve been screaming about for years—and that’s why we’re in this mess with climate change and resource depletion? Because we’re too busy pretending we’re immortal?”
“Exactly,” Ajit replied, leaning forward now, his eyes gleaming with the thrill of debate. “You’ve seen it yourself, haven’t you? People read your blog, nod along to your math about exponential growth hitting a wall, and then go right back to buying SUVs and flying to conferences. That’s MORT in action. Denial of reality isn’t a bug; it’s a feature.”
Tom scowled, pulling a crumpled printout of one of Ajit’s papers from his backpack. “This is where I get stuck,” he said, jabbing a finger at a highlighted line. “‘The co-evolution of optimism and denial enabled cultural complexity.’ That’s poetic, but it’s not science. How do you measure denial? How do you prove it’s not just a byproduct of something else—like, say, social cooperation or language?”
Ajit tapped his pen against the desk, a rhythmic tic. “You want numbers? Look at the data we do have. No other species buries its dead with rituals. No other species builds myths about afterlives. That’s not just cooperation—that’s a collective refusal to accept the finality of death. And it’s not random; it correlates with the explosion of symbolic thought, art, religion. MORT bridges the gap between biological survival and cultural dominance.”
Tom shook his head, his voice rising. “Correlation isn’t causation, Ajit. You’re cherry-picking. Rituals could just as easily be about group cohesion or signaling. And what about the costs? If denial’s so great, why are we staring down ecological collapse? Your theory makes us sound like a species of ostriches with our heads in the sand.”
Ajit’s smile faded, replaced by a steely resolve. “Because it’s a double-edged sword. Denial got us here—tool-making, agriculture, cities—but it’s also why we’re blind to the limits you’re so fond of graphing. The same mechanism that let us imagine gods and futures now lets us ignore your exponential curves. It’s not a flaw in MORT; it’s a prediction.”
Tom leaned against the wall, exhaling sharply. “Okay, let’s run with that. Suppose you’re right, and we’re hardwired to deny reality. How do you explain people like me? I see the limits. I’ve spent years doing the math—energy budgets, population growth, thermodynamic constraints. Am I an outlier, or is your theory just selective?”
Ajit tilted his head, considering. “You’re not denying reality—you’re obsessed with it. But you’re still human. Tell me, Tom, when you write those blog posts, do you secretly hope humanity will pull off a miracle? A fusion breakthrough, a carbon capture fix? That’s MORT sneaking in—a flicker of optimism against the math.”
Tom’s jaw tightened. “I don’t hope for miracles. I hope for rationality. If we’d faced reality head-on—say, fifty years ago—we wouldn’t be in this hole. Your theory feels like an excuse for why we didn’t.”
“It’s not an excuse,” Ajit shot back. “It’s an explanation. And it’s not all bleak. Denial bought us time—time to build science, medicine, even your precious physics. Without it, we might’ve frozen in existential dread before we ever left the savanna.”
The room fell silent, the hum of the air conditioning filling the space. Tom stared out the window at the eucalyptus trees swaying in the breeze, their silvery leaves catching the fading light. Ajit watched him, waiting.
Finally, Tom turned back. “Alright, I’ll bite. Let’s say MORT’s real. How do we test it? I’m not signing off on a hypothesis I can’t poke holes in. Give me something concrete—fossils, genes, a simulation, anything.”
Ajit grinned, sensing an opening. “We’re already testing it. My lab’s looking at genetic markers tied to cognitive traits—self-awareness, emotional regulation. We’ve got comparative studies with primates, tracking when symbolic behavior emerges. And if you want a simulation, why don’t you build one? You’re the numbers guy. Model a population with and without denial, see what survives.”
Tom raised an eyebrow. “You’re daring a physicist to simulate evolution? That’s a dangerous game, Ajit. I might just disprove you.”
“Or you might prove me right,” Ajit countered. “Either way, we’d learn something. Isn’t that the point?”
Tom smirked, the first crack in his stern demeanor. “Fine. I’ll think about it. But if I do this, I’m not pulling punches. Your MORT better hold up to some serious scrutiny.”
Ajit stood, extending a hand. “I wouldn’t expect anything less. Deal?”
Tom shook it, his grip firm. “Deal. But don’t expect me to go easy on you just because we’re neighbors on campus.”
As Tom left, Ajit called after him, “Bring coffee next time. This could take a while.”
The door clicked shut, and Ajit sat back down, staring at the manuscript on his desk. Outside, the sun dipped below the horizon, painting the sky a defiant orange—a color that, for a moment, felt like a quiet rebellion against the inevitable dark.
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Maybe we should send both of them this short-story to see how they react?
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Here, I did Richard Nolthenius and Varki next.
The Fog of Doubt
The Pacific fog rolled thick over Highway 1, a gray veil that blurred the cliffs and redwoods as Richard Nolthenius gripped the steering wheel of his aging Subaru. The astrophysicist from Cabrillo College in Santa Cruz had spent the last three months obsessing over a single idea: Ajit Varki’s “Mind Over Reality Transition” (MORT) hypothesis. It gnawed at him, this notion that human self-awareness emerged alongside a biological imperative to deny reality—specifically, the reality of death. To Richard, it sounded like a philosopher’s fever dream masquerading as science, and he’d driven two hours south to Monterey to tell Varki exactly that.
Varki, a physician-scientist from UC San Diego, had rented a cabin overlooking the coast for a week of solitude to refine his latest paper. When Richard’s email arrived—polite but pointed, requesting a face-to-face discussion—Varki had agreed. He admired skeptics; they kept him sharp. Now, as Richard’s car crunched onto the gravel driveway, Varki stepped onto the porch, his gray hair tousled by the wind, a steaming mug in hand.
“You must really hate my theory,” Varki called, his voice carrying a hint of amusement.
Richard climbed out, adjusting his glasses. “Hate’s a strong word. Let’s say I’m skeptical enough to lose sleep over it.”
Varki chuckled. “Come in, then. Skeptics get tea.”
The cabin was modest—wood-paneled walls, a sagging couch, a desk cluttered with papers and a laptop. A fire crackled in the hearth, casting flickering shadows. Richard shed his jacket and sat, pulling a notebook from his bag. Varki settled across from him, cradling his mug.
“So,” Varki began, “what’s the problem with MORT?”
Richard didn’t hesitate. “It’s untestable. You claim humans evolved self-awareness, realized we’re mortal, and then developed a psychological block—denial—to cope. That’s a narrative, not a hypothesis. Where’s the evidence? The falsifiability?”
Varki sipped his tea, unperturbed. “The evidence is us. Look at every culture—rituals, religions, myths. All built to soften death’s sting. That’s not coincidence; it’s adaptation.”
“Correlation isn’t causation,” Richard shot back. “I model stellar evolution. Stars collapse, planets form—processes we can measure. Your idea hinges on brain chemistry and behavior, but you can’t quantify denial like I can a supernova’s luminosity.”
Varki leaned forward, eyes glinting. “Can’t I? Take sialic acids—sugars on cell surfaces. Humans lack a form other primates have, Neu5Gc. That shift, around 2-3 million years ago, boosted brain growth. Bigger brains, more awareness. But awareness of mortality? Crippling without a buffer. Denial’s that buffer.”
Richard scribbled a note. “You’re cherry-picking. Brain size doesn’t prove your leap. Plenty of animals die without existential crises. Why us?”
“Because we’re the only ones who know,” Varki said. “A chimp doesn’t dread tomorrow. We do. Without denial, that dread would’ve stopped us cold—evolutionary dead end.”
Richard frowned. “So you’re saying natural selection favored delusion?”
“Call it optimism,” Varki replied. “Same reason we climb mountains or build rockets. Denial lets us act despite the odds.”
The astrophysicist shook his head. “That’s psychology, not biology. You’re projecting human quirks onto evolution. I see the universe’s laws—gravity, entropy. They don’t bend for feelings.”
Varki smiled faintly. “Don’t they? You study climate change, don’t you? Denial’s rampant there. People ignore data—your data—because reality’s too grim. That’s MORT at work.”
Richard stiffened. “That’s cultural, not genetic. You’re conflating scales.”
“Am I?” Varki pressed. “What if the capacity for denial is genetic, hardwired by selection? Culture just dresses it up.”
The fire popped, sending sparks up the chimney. Richard flipped through his notebook, marshaling his thoughts. “Let’s back up. You tie this to sialic acids. Fine. Show me a mechanism—how a sugar tweak flips a mental switch.”
Varki stood, retrieving a stack of papers from his desk. “It’s not one switch. It’s a cascade. Neu5Gc’s absence altered immune responses, freed up metabolic resources, grew the neocortex. With that came theory of mind—knowing others think, knowing they die, knowing we die. Too much for a raw psyche. Denial evolved as a filter.”
Richard skimmed the top paper, a dense mix of biochemistry and speculation. “This is suggestive, not conclusive. Where’s the fossil record? The genetic markers?”
“Fossils don’t preserve thoughts,” Varki said. “But look at Neanderthals—burials, symbols. Early denial rituals. And modern genomes? We’re still mapping, but the sialic shift’s a clue.”
“Clues aren’t proof,” Richard countered. “I could argue cosmic radiation spiked brain mutations. Same evidence, different story.”
Varki laughed. “Fair. But does your story explain why we lie to ourselves?”
The debate stretched on, the fog outside thickening until the windows showed only gray. Richard attacked from every angle—methodology, logic, scope. Varki parried with data, anecdotes, and quiet confidence. Tea gave way to coffee, then whiskey as the night deepened.
“You’re too comfortable with ambiguity,” Richard said at one point, glass in hand. “Science isn’t poetry.”
“And you’re too rigid,” Varki replied. “The universe isn’t just equations. We’re messy outliers.”
Hours later, the fire was embers, and Richard’s notebook brimmed with scribbles. He leaned back, exhausted. “I still think MORT’s a stretch. But I’ll grant you this—it’s a hell of a stretch.”
Varki grinned. “That’s progress. Another drink?”
Richard declined, standing. “I’ve got a drive. And papers to grade.”
As he stepped into the damp night, the fog swallowed the cabin behind him. He didn’t buy MORT—not yet. But Varki’s words echoed: Even skeptics prove my point. Climbing into his car, Richard wondered if his own doubts were denial in disguise.
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Grok’s take on how Varki and Tim Garrett would play out:
The late afternoon sun cast a muted glow through the blinds of Tim Garrett’s cluttered office at the University of Utah. Stacks of papers teetered on his desk, a chaotic testament to years of modeling atmospheric physics and civilization’s thermodynamic collapse. Outside, the Wasatch Range loomed, indifferent to the intellectual storm brewing within. Tim sat across from Ajit Varki, a physician-scientist whose wiry frame and sharp eyes betrayed a mind as restless as his own. They’d agreed to meet privately—no audience, no posturing—just two men wrestling with ideas that refused to sit still.
Tim adjusted his glasses, peering at the man who’d flown in from UC San Diego. Ajit’s Mind Over Reality Transition hypothesis—MORT—had been gnawing at him for months. It posited that humans evolved a unique capacity to deny reality, a trait that shielded them from existential despair but also blinded them to looming threats. Tim found it provocative, even compelling, yet deeply flawed. Still, he couldn’t shake the nagging suspicion that MORT might explain why his own work—his “No Way Out” paper—had been met with a collective shrug.
“Thanks for coming, Ajit,” Tim began, his voice steady but edged with unease. “I’ve been meaning to hash this out with you. Your MORT idea—it’s bold. Maybe too bold. I’m not sure it holds up under scrutiny.”
Ajit smiled faintly, leaning back in the creaky chair. “I appreciate the candor, Tim. Most people just nod politely and change the subject. What’s your beef with it?”
Tim tapped a pencil against his desk, gathering his thoughts. “Your claim is that humans evolved this denial mechanism—some neurological quirk that lets us ignore mortality, collapse, all the big ugly truths. Fine. It’s a neat story. But where’s the evidence? You’re leaning hard on evolutionary psychology, and that’s a shaky scaffold. I deal in physics—energy flows, carbon cycles, measurable stuff. MORT feels like a leap into the speculative.”
Ajit’s eyes glinted with a mix of amusement and defiance. “Speculative? Sure. But it’s not baseless. Look at the data—archaeological, neurological, behavioral. We’ve got fossil records showing a sudden leap in symbolic thinking around 100,000 years ago. Art, burial rituals, language—all signs of a mind that could imagine beyond the immediate. My argument is that this came with a cost: we had to suppress awareness of our own fragility. Otherwise, we’d paralyze ourselves with dread.”
Tim frowned, unconvinced. “You’re saying denial is adaptive? That it’s what let us build civilizations?”
“Exactly,” Ajit replied. “If we fully grasped our mortality—or the fragility of our systems—we’d never get out of bed. Denial lets us plan, innovate, cooperate. It’s the grease in the gears of progress.”
Tim leaned forward, his skepticism sharpening. “But that’s where it falls apart for me. If denial’s so adaptive, why are we barreling toward collapse? My work shows civilization as a heat engine—energy consumption locked to growth, CO2 emissions as an inevitable byproduct. There’s no way out, Ajit. No amount of denial changes the physics. If MORT’s right, shouldn’t we be better at dodging the bullet?”
Ajit paused, considering the jab. “That’s a fair point. Denial’s not a perfect shield—it’s a double-edged sword. It gets us through the day, but it also lets us ignore the cliff until we’re stepping off it. Your ‘No Way Out’ paper fits right into that. People read it, see the math, and then… nothing. They move on. Why? Because fully engaging with it means facing a reality they’re wired to avoid.”
Tim’s jaw tightened. Ajit had struck a nerve. His 2011 paper had laid bare an unforgiving truth: civilization’s growth was thermodynamically coupled to environmental destruction. No technology, no policy could uncouple them. He’d expected debate, outrage, something. Instead, it had sunk into obscurity, cited occasionally but never truly grappled with. MORT offered a bitter explanation: people didn’t ignore him because he was wrong, but because he was right.
“I’ll give you that,” Tim said slowly. “The silence around my work—it stings. Maybe there’s some psychological block at play. But I’m not ready to call it a species-wide trait. You’re painting with a broad brush. What about the scientists, the activists, the ones who do face reality?”
Ajit nodded, conceding the point. “Exceptions exist. Denial’s not absolute—it varies by individual, culture, context. But the baseline? Most of us flinch from the abyss. Look at climate change. Decades of data, and yet we’re still debating whether it’s real while the ice melts and the storms rage. That’s MORT in action.”
Tim stood, pacing to the window. The mountains stared back, ancient and unyielding. “Okay, let’s say I buy that. Denial’s real, it’s pervasive. Where does that leave us? Your hypothesis explains the problem, but it doesn’t solve it. My paper says we’re locked in—physics doesn’t negotiate. If MORT’s why no one listens, how do we break through?”
Ajit’s expression softened, a hint of melancholy creeping in. “That’s the kicker, Tim. I don’t know if we can. Denial’s baked into us. It’s not just a habit—it’s a survival mechanism gone rogue. Maybe the best we can do is nudge the exceptions, the ones who can stare into the void without blinking. People like you.”
Tim stopped pacing, turning to face him. “Me? I’m not some hero. I’m just a guy with equations no one wants to hear. If MORT’s right, I’m as trapped as anyone.”
“Not trapped,” Ajit countered. “Conflicted. You see the cliff, Tim. You’ve mapped it out. But you’re still here, still talking, still trying. That’s the paradox of denial—it coexists with awareness. You’re living proof.”
The room fell silent, the weight of their words settling like dust. Tim sank back into his chair, his mind churning. He wanted to dismiss MORT as pseudoscientific fluff, but it clung to him, whispering truths he couldn’t unhear. His own work felt suddenly smaller—not wrong, but incomplete. Physics could predict the fall; maybe Ajit’s lens explained why no one caught the rope.
“Alright,” Tim said at last. “Let’s assume MORT holds water. What’s the mechanism? You’ve got this evolutionary leap, this denial switch flipping on. How does it work—neurologically, genetically? Give me something concrete.”
Ajit leaned forward, eager to dive in. “It’s tied to the prefrontal cortex—our executive control center. Around the time symbolic thought emerged, we see evidence of rapid brain expansion. My hypothesis, with Danny Brower, is that a genetic tweak—maybe a mutation in sialic acid biology—amped up our ability to suppress fear responses. We’re not sure which gene yet, but the clues are there: humans lack a sugar molecule other primates have, Neu5Gc. It’s a small difference, but it could’ve rewired how we process reality.”
Tim raised an eyebrow. “A sugar molecule? That’s your linchpin?”
“It’s a start,” Ajit said, unfazed. “Small changes can cascade. Think of it like your climate models—a tweak in one variable shifts the whole system. We’re still digging, but the behavioral evidence backs it up: humans rationalize threats away like no other species.”
Tim scribbled a note, his physicist’s mind already testing the idea. “I’ll grant you it’s plausible. But I’d need hard data—fMRI scans, genetic sequencing, something I can sink my teeth into. Otherwise, it’s just a story.”
“Fair enough,” Ajit replied. “We’re working on it. Science is slow, messy. You know that.”
The conversation stretched into the evening, the sun dipping below the horizon. They volleyed arguments—Tim probing MORT’s gaps, Ajit parrying with anecdotes and theory. Tim felt the tension in his chest ease, replaced by a grudging respect. Ajit wasn’t a charlatan; he was a seeker, like him. Different tools, same abyss.
As Ajit gathered his coat to leave, Tim spoke up. “One last thing. If MORT’s why my paper flopped, what’s the move? How do I get through to people?”
Ajit paused at the door, his gaze steady. “You don’t. Not directly. You plant the seed, let it fester. Denial cracks under pressure—disasters, crises, the stuff that forces eyes open. Your work’s a warning. It’ll echo when the silence breaks.”
Tim watched him go, the office empty again. He turned to his desk, the equations staring back. For the first time in years, he felt a flicker of something—hope, maybe, or just defiance. MORT might be right. It might be wrong. But he’d keep pushing, denial or not. The mountains outside stood witness, as they always had.
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Can we make it a Rom-Com? I think it would sell much better.
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Nobody is interesting in MORT, so we likely wouldn’t be able to sell it no matter how well we marketed it! xD
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That was fun!
But c’mon, no way Grok did all that on its own. You had to of fed grok some of those details… right?
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Here’s my only prompt I gave Grok: “Grok, write a short story where astrophysicist Tom Murphy (known for his DoTheMath blog) and physician-scientist Ajit Varki (known for his MORT hypothesis) debate MORT. Since they are both active at the University of California, San Diego, assume that Dr. Murphy has taken issue with Varki’s theory and confronts him in his office. The short story should be 50 000 characters long.”
You could try yourself, see what you get?
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Goddamn this AI. It really is the devil’s tool.
No way can I ever play around with something like that. I know myself. It’ll take over my life. I’d even be using it for comments in blogs like this just to try and sound cooler.😊
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Tom Murphy took early retirement.
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Welcome to un-Denial. It would be good if you would pick a nickname so we can follow conversations with you. I’ll change your name to J. Doe for now, and will change it again if you prefer something else.
I can confirm Dr. Varki is super smart.
He might however not be immune to denial himself. A couple days ago we had an email exchange. He expressed displeasure about my belief in conspiracy theories and that I deny vaccines save children from diseases as demonstrated by this RFK Jr. post. I told him that made me sad because I thought I had earned enough credibility for him to be curious why our beliefs differ. I reminded him that when we met he was primarily concerned about the effect of denial on climate change and that I taught him that climate change is just one piece of our overshoot predicament and that other threats are more imminent like debt, oil and war. I also reminded him that mRNA transfections are a fundamentally new and different technology than conventional vaccines. I sent him the recent McCullough paper summarizing the evidence in support of removing mRNA transfections from the market.
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Roger roger.
Has Dr. Varki ever publically stated his position on this whole COVID matter?
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Not that I am aware of.
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What always surprises me in this debate about vaccines is that people use the word “believe”. There are 2 questions that matter; do vaccines work, are they dangerous. Neither answer relies on belief, but rather upon science, upon actual, real-world data. It is testament to humans unwillingness to think that even a professor prefers belief over data. Yes, it’s hard to find the data (https://dissolvingillusions.com/graphs-images/), but not impossible, and if the cost of your belief is massive amounts of children damaged for the rest of their lives…shouldn’t you actually try looking at the data, and forget politics and belief?
Simon.
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True, but it’s very difficult to know what data to trust when pharma funds regulators, medical journals, research, safety tests, politicians, and the news media.
It took an expert genius like Dr. Malcolm Kendrick years to unpick the statin sham.
How can we expect a normal citizen to sift the covid misinformation that was a military grade global coordinated campaign to influence us?
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The data used in the book I bang on about is just from health services around the world. It’s a heck of a job to compile it all, but given that the authors did that, as a reader, initially I just checked a handful of their datasets to see if I could find the same, and concluded that they were being honest when I did find the same data. Given that I have kids, I felt it was incumbent on me to actually do everything I could to find out if vaccines were either safe or effective…it’s not actually that hard to find the data if one goes looking for it. I think the difficulty for most people is that they can’t believe something which has been pushed for so long isn’t true, especially in light of the damage caused to millions of kids. Easier to believe that the government/health services have your interests at heart, rather than that corruption and greed have been ruling for centuries.
Simon.
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I recall that book was at the top of the list of the books health authorities wanted to censor and discredit during covid.
You know you are over the target when the flak is heaviest.
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I should also add that my exchange with Dr. Varki was not lengthy enough to know if his “beliefs” were grounded in sound analysis of data. It is possible to find cleverly and deceptively constructed data that supports the government position. Only hundreds of hours of study would make you suspicious of this data, and he is a very busy man.
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Chris, I did a deep search for All Illusions Must Be Broken without success. I doubt it’s been ripped.
I’ve read some of Becker’s work. When people ask how does his Terror Management Theory (TMT) fit with MORT I reply as follows:
TMT is to MORT as Newtonian Physics is to General Relativity. Both do a good job of making everyday predictions, however the latter supersedes the former and is a much more complete and illuminating theory.
TMT does not explain the emergence of behaviorally modern humans, or god, or an extended theory of mind, or denial. TMT simply says awareness of death has many impacts on human behavior.
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Thanks for looking. And thanks for the TMT info.
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Have you read The Worm at the Core: On the Role of Death in Life? It seems it’s been influenced by Becker’s work. It’s not MORT but is it good entertainment?
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I think I read that book many years ago but am not sure.
To refresh my memory I asked Grok to summarize the book. It was a hard question that took 5 minutes to answer and several MWh of power. 😦
Yes, now I remember, I did read it, or at least I heard the author Sheldon Solomon explain his ideas several times. He built an academic career on one idea, that awareness of mortality affects behavior, and spent 25 years conducting psychology experiments to prove this point.
They smell a lot like those psychology experiments that no one can replicate. In any case, it doesn’t matter because he does not address any of the WHY questions that interest me. Like why did only one species evolve an extended theory of mind, and why does only one species believe in gods, and why did god emerge simultaneously with behaviorally modern humans, and why does denial of unpleasant realities override high intelligence, etc., etc..
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Here is my comment on the post
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2025/03/the-ball-comes-to-rest/#comment-14816
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Xraymike79 can’t get enough of the poetry lately. He’s very good but mix in an essay once in a while my man.
This one’s about that famous theme in the collapse/prepper world that nobody wants to think about. Funny because I thought it was ‘three missed meals away from anarchy’… but nine makes way more sense.😊
Three Days from Anarchy | Collapse of Industrial Civilization
Three days from order, nine meals from the brink,
When trucks cease their hum and shelves start to blink.
A system of supply chains with just-in-time grace
Collapses when panic rears its desperate face.
First day of hunger, a tremor of fear,
Second brings barter, third sharpens the spear.
By the ninth hollow plate, law and order disappear—
How thin is the ice supporting all we hold dear?
The trucks travel highways, the ships carve the sea,
A complex labyrinth built on a frail guarantee.
One cyclone, one airstrike, one cyberattack in the night,
And the Age of Abundance comes crashing down from its height.
The first empty cart, the first gasp of “Why?”,
The second day’s distress, the third’s frantic cry.
Gas stations choke, cash loses its creed,
As survival rewrites every contract we heed.
Savage primates return when empty stomachs are denied,
And primeval instincts emerge where civility has died.
Nine meals from chaos, three sunsets from dread—
How thick is the ice where we gingerly tread?
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I understood this poem. I’ve been skimming his other recent poems but the fog banks roll in and I understand nothing.
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I’m not sure what to make of today’s episode from Nate Hagens.
His guest Dan O’Connor is a homeland security expert and seems to be aware of our overshoot challenges. He talked non-stop about many topics, with high confidence, and offered some good advice on how to live, and yet did not really address any of the core issues. It felt like he had memorized words without really understanding their meaning.
Maybe I’m being too harsh. Nate was clearly impressed.
Curious what others here think.
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Go back to the 12th to 19th minute mark where he talks the brittleness or fragility of our complex highly efficient system. He has all the ingredients of the future put together, but appears to not want to dwell on it to stay relevant to those that want hope.
I imagine in his workplace, there was no room for complete doom/collapse even if all the evidence pointed that way, which it does, so they always had to talk in terms of creating resilient systems and hope etc.
Most of the rest I found as fluff on particular issues, which are over ruled by the macro, but then considered as separate from the whole..
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I just got done. The fact that I made it all the way to the end tells me Dan was pretty good. But… there’s always a but… he has way too much of that disgusting USA pride/loyalty. One quote that stood out was something like “our culture is what made America great and unique”. LOL… America’s culture… that was a good laugh. And his extreme love for DHS almost automatically disqualifies everything he says.
Definitely smart and aware, but also a prime example of that Upton Sinclair quote about getting a man to understand when his paycheck depends on him not understanding. This comment sums it up best:
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Good review. I agree.
His answer to Nate’s final question about what he would do if he had a magic wand also put me off.
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Happy First day of Spring (or Autumn for those down under).
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There’s a troubling mystery my brain revisits many times every day.
It’s the most important question for which I have no answer.
Even my often used fail-safe explanation of genetic reality denial does not provide a satisfying answer.
The question is, why does no one, anywhere, care about preventing a recurrence and/or holding accountable those responsible for the deaths of 7 to 25 million people, with 20 million being the most probable number, over the last 5 years of covid?
In the early days of covid a massive campaign was conducted to cover up the lab origin and to persuade us that the virus was a natural phenomenon. Today the evidence is overwhelming, and most authorities agree, that the virus was engineered in the Wuhan lab, with funding from the US government.
Regardless if you think all of the deaths were caused by the virus and there would have been many more deaths without the competent actions of our governments, or if like me, you believe most of the deaths were caused by the incompetent and/or evil responses of our governments, the fact remains that about 20 million deaths resulted directly or indirectly from activities at the Wuhan lab.
Regardless if you think it was a mistake made while conducting necessary medical research, or if like me, you think it was an illegal bioweapons program conducted in China to circumvent US gain of function laws, and those responsible should be in prison for murder, the fact remains that about 20 million people are dead.
How is it possible that no government anywhere in the world is demanding actions to prevent a recurrence?
Even the enemies of China and the US are silent.
Health authorities and experts are silent.
Citizens are silent.
How is this possible?
Seriously, what is going on?
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Very few people, including me, have put the time and thought into the issue that you have Rob. I put it simplisticly down to money and social status (potential loss of both) and the Monkeysphere (“One death is a tragedy. One million deaths is a statistic.”)
I found this from a review of William Ophuls Electrifying the Titanic book which, as an Un-denial ‘disciple’, resonated.
“When it comes to this willful blindness, Ophuls lays the blame on three human “mental defects that are especially problematic in the face of ecological warnings.” First, humans are lazy, greedy, and fearful; second, the human mind is inflexibly “sticky” (“once an idea is firmly lodged in the psyche, it can be almost impossible to dislodge, no matter how irrational or counterproductive it may be”); and third, the human mind is understandably boggled by the complexity of this particular problem. According to Ophuls, this inability to apprehend the full scope of some impending disaster is a recurrent failing..”
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Thanks.
Ophulus’ ideas make sense when applied to a complex intractable problem like energy depletion.
However, the root cause of 20 million deaths is simple to understand, and blame can be assigned to a very small number of easily identified people.
Given we are a fearful species it seems we should be wanting to crucify those responsible to prevent a recurrence, instead of ignoring their mistakes and/or crimes.
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Hello Rob,
I really feel for your angst over this issue, truly. You are so earnest and I wish for some resolution for you. You have approached this topic with a rational mind as always but in my opinion, perhaps a reason the outcome is less than rational to you is just that–because most of the population is caught up in an emotional and possibly subconscious reaction, including our ever present state of denial.
I think it is fair to say that the majority views the whole Covid experience as a thoroughly unpleasant one. When strong emotional reactions, especially based on fear and uncertainty, are continually being elicited over a significant period of time, one can reach the point of burn out and a survival strategy of dissociation may be adopted just to continue functioning. And now that Covid is supposedly behind us, we’d just as soon and easily block it from memory than to dissect through the whole debacle, trying to figure out who, what, and why. It was so painful that it’s almost better to pretend it never even happened. We humans are pretty good at not thinking about things that we can’t cope with.
For most, Covid and all its lesser and greater implications, is in the too hard basket because any deeper dive into the matter will logically lead to even more questions, confusion, and even the possibility of up-ending one’s world view. Most people simply do not have the head space, time, energy or desire to change their status quo; the great unknown is not usually a welcomed and secure place. Like lemmings, we are most comfortable following the group, which is conditioned to taking its cues from leaders and respected members of society. Most humans are genetically wired (and/or trained) to follow and conform, not ask questions, and we seem to function well in hierarchy (whether by genes or culture), especially when safety and security are in doubt. Also inertia is a powerful force, doing nothing, especially when alternative options seem futile or discouraged, is an attractive option, and may be the only option when one has precious little extra energy or resources otherwise.
If there is another trait of most humans that seems to be as ubiquitous as conforming, it is we don’t like being shown to be wrong or made a fool of. This is a very emotionally charged area, too. If people really looked hard and deep into Covid, a reasonable conclusion is that we were led merrily down the garden path and duped into risking our health with dubious science and withheld knowledge. We did follow, and blindly, because we trusted that our welfare was a priority. To admit that this could be far from the truth would be admitting that we were clueless, gullible, taken for a ride, and wrong. A rational reaction would be anger and demand for accountability and justice (go Rob!). Many have expressed this, especially those who have been injured through mistreatment, but an equally likely reaction could be indifference which may be masking shame for being so sucked in. It is easier on the ego to just ignore it and proverbially, move on, especially if many others adopt the same attitude so once again, you are part of the majority group that can cavalierly wave away the whole Covid years with a “wasn’t that just crazy, but thankfully we’re over it now.”
A further observation is that humans are very reluctant to accept responsibility for actions that may have injured themselves or others, especially loved ones. Those who should have known better than to foist these harmful mRNA injections, especially as the evidence mounted, would surely have come to the conclusion that they did not allow informed consent at best, and at worst, caused irreparable physical and mental harm. At the least, a public apology should be given with reparation measures to ameliorate any damage, this is again the rational and logical thing to do. But how can one live with oneself if fully aware of this, especially if one also needs that position to make a living? And how terrible it would be as a parent who unwittingly allowed their child’s health to be risked? Guilt and shame are primal emotions that are often blocked subconsciously because they are so distressing. Denial is once again our panacea. And as long as others are not coming forward in self-recrimination, so much the better to continue ignoring any inner voice that would disturb our peace.
I hope my musings have helped somewhat in putting forth reasons why the overall response hasn’t been a logical or rational one. We are emotional beings as much as physical ones, and it can be argued that reason isn’t our main driver at all! At least for all the “normal” humans, anyway! I am proud to join you Rob in saying that I’m not normal either, but least when compared to the majority. In this fine company, I would say I’m fair to middling, but well within the limits of un-deniality!
In a few more weeks I make my return to the land of my birth but I will feel such an alien there. I will crave and need even more connection to this group here to keep me sane. I promise to check in daily but forgive me in advance if I go rather quiet again.
All the best to everyone. Happy and harmonious Spring or Autumn Equinox.
Namaste.
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Thank you very much Gaia. That’s an excellent explanation.
So once again, it’s Dr. Varki’s MORT that we must rely on to explain the insanity we swim in. Such an important theory that so few understand.
One piece of your explanation still troubles me. Let’s agree no one wants to explore whether their family doctor is an unethical idiot, or whether they were duped by a government corrupted by pharma.
20 million deaths is a big number, and people are still dying. About the same number were killed in WWI and it’s about 1/3 of WWII deaths.
The cause is simple to understand, and the solution is easy to implement. All we have to do is ban gain of function research. If such an agreement cannot be reached, then we can shame and sanction those who continue the research.
There’s no need to accept we were duped to implement this fix.
And yet the silence is striking. We have a federal election coming up in Canada. I am monitoring the feeds of the leading candidates. No one has mentioned this issue. Almost every day I send a message to the opposition leader criticizing him for not making this an election issue.
How can he not demand action to prevent a recurrence?
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No need for me to reply Gaia’s answer is brilliant.
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Hello Rob and everyone,
Thank you for taking on board my contribution to the mystery of The Great Silence.
20 million or more adversely affected (earlier death) should be a huge wake-up call. But does anyone other than those already onto the alternate narrative really believe it? People will not take on any responsibility if they don’t think there’s anything to be responsible for, and it’s so much easier to ignore the possibility they may have contributed to one of the worst outcomes in political and medical history.
It seems impossible to turn a blind eye to these numbers but look how every day we do just that with the situation in Gaza, and even more damning, who cares about the atrocities in Africa anymore? We know someone is responsible for the genocide, we blame our governments but who put them in there (and even worse is to come to the realisation that no matter who’s in office, the results will be the same)? So much tidier to scroll through the headlines which become less and less confronting with each reiteration of daily kills. Hell, if photos of bloodied and maimed and starving children don’t wring us out, then words and numbers certainly won’t. Until it affects us directly, it’s happening but not happening–or else we would have to face ourselves and do something about it, or live with the fact that our convictions stop when they inconvenience us.
US Air force serviceman Aaron Bushnell choose to end his life in protest of the Gaza genocide by self-immolation in front of the Israeli Embassy in DC. More than one year on, that shock value has faded, so what does it take to get more than a small minority into awareness and even smaller number into real action, whatever that may be? Protests are one thing, as noble an outlet as they are, especially since now there is a significant risk of serious repercussions, but in the end most everyone just goes home thinking they did something positive but in reality achieved nothing. Pro-Palestine protests have been continuing in various waves long before the current Gaza catastrophe, and the result is here we are with Israel about to claim Gaza and the West Bank, finalising the eviction of Palestinians from their homelands, fulfilling Israel’s agenda since year dot with total and open support from my country. How can we not burn up inside knowing this?
It’s so soul-destroying to come to acceptance that this is just how it is and always has been, some countries and peoples are more equal than others, in fact, to them everyone else doesn’t even count. We in the West seem perfectly complacent with this hierarchy as we are in the upper decks of the Titanic whereas most of the rest of the world is in steerage class. However, we know that if we rock the boat even slightly, it’s most likely ourselves that will be tipped out, as this hierarchy repeats on all levels of the social structure within our countries. So, best to keep heads down and just hope we can get through our lives, after all 70 odd years isn’t all that long and most just want to live to enjoy some retirement years with maybe a few holidays before one’s health gets too bad and the money runs out.
Trying to get people in political office to see past the up-coming election cycle is like taking part in a protest–you may feel you tried your best to do something by writing them with grievances but it’s just going through the motions for both sides. In the case of Covid investigations, they probably don’t have the scope to deal with it as it’s such a tangled web involving every sector of our society and besides, they don’t plan to be around long enough in office to see through anything more substantial than saying your concerns are taken on board, thank you very much.
It’s all just too bad, too sad, nothing we can do now, move along, nothing to see here, possibly mistakes were made but we did our best–the endless platitudes that grease the pathetic social grindstone to which we must keep our noses scraping against as long as we live in and by the system.
It’s only because I’m partially free from the system and a member of the upper echelons of privilege that I can blithely write this as I do, after all, it’s only words and where are my own actions? I, too, have been complicit in many Great Silences and Great Inactions and admit it here freely. I live with knowing that I fall very short in courage of my so-called convictions. This bothers me infinitely more so than others not living up to my judged standards of justice and rightfulness, for this is my life and responsibility to own and only I have the choice to do so. You are all my witnesses to my inner turmoil, and hear my true confessions. Oh to be human is not easy and that is why we can and should have more pity on and understanding for all those we despise and despair of–we see the injustice because we carry the same tendencies in ourselves.
Gaia is rather sad over all of this but that is my due and I can at least be courageous enough to accept it.
Namaste, friends.
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Very nice Gaia. Thank you.
I get why no one including the doers or the getters wants to revisit whether granny was killed with a ventilator, or midazolam, or because antibiotics were withheld, or because ivermectin was banned, or because of heart tissue scarring or clots or cancer from an mRNA transfection, or because she was depressed due to unnecessary isolation from family.
It seems to me that banning gain of function research is a different animal and should not evoke a desire to deny what happened.
Yet there is silence.
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Hello Rob,
Thank you for your continuing support and providing this space for us to decompress.
I do understand your unease with this issue of gain of function research which opens up cans of worms we are not ready to eat. After all, the ultimate purpose is to create pathogens for warfare, unsavoury stuff which should be easy to condemn. I can only compare this with another agent of warfare which we have accepted as part of our modern life and arguably more deadly and catastrophic to the entire biosphere–nuclear weapons. Once the research into this Pandora’s Box was started, there was no going back. The race to get the bomb played a critical role in WWII and whilst the US crossed the finish line first to great tragedy, the continued research and build-up only just started. Any country that wished to be a nuclear player for their own security strived to have the technology, and this desire continues today.
If we cared for the welfare of humanity and all life, we should have stopped research into nuclear technology once we realised its destructive power and our geopolitical inability to control the consequences of unleashing this power. But instead, the arms race was born, fueling investment into nuclear physics research in governmental and academic laboratories worldwide. It became a case of if we didn’t do it, another country would and therefore have the military advantage, such is the inbuilt human mindset.
Gain of function research is entrenched in our military industrial complex and will remain so for this same reason. We pursue it because other countries are also engaged in this, whether openly or clandestinely, and we need to keep up our primacy in this technology as surely as in the nuclear sphere. Warfare does not come to mind as an ethical pursuit by any stretch, so the machinations for how war can be waged certainly are exempt from these considerations.
AI research which is progressing full speed is another case in point. Even the experts are wary about Super AI and reaching singularity, warning that we have really no precedent for what can and may happen. But yet, if we pull out of this endeavour now, another entity or country will achieve it first and therefore have ascendancy and advantage, especially in the context of military applications, which always seems to be the master driver. It’s a matter of do it, hopefully achieving the goal first, and ask ethical questions later, there is no other choice now. Whether or not ubiquitous AI is for our greater good, we must bring it into being otherwise we won’t know just how good it could be, and we can deal with consequences later. So much of human behaviour is based on maximising power over a perceived competitor and taking whatever risk to do so.
I know this doesn’t really address why the common person doesn’t jump up and down to condemn gain of function research, one of the consequences being unleashing Covid. Perhaps “normal” people just don’t think this deep and long into things that they think they can’t do anything about? The meaning and implications of gain of function research isn’t in the common psyche like nuclear weapon research, but since we’ve accepted that fully, and since we all admit there is such thing as bioweapon research, gain of function is just a necessary part of that, right? I think most people don’t even know what it is anymore they should be supporting or not, and unless personally affected, they wouldn’t have the staying power of years to maintain focus on any particular issue, especially one they don’t really understand.
These are just my thoughts to catalogue with yours. It is all really crazy-making and perhaps an energy sink from which we will never extract an acceptable return. Best go for a walk and let nature absolve all.
Namaste, friend.
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Your analogy between nuclear and bio weapons is very good and probably explains the inaction of many leaders of rich countries.
I still wonder why citizens everywhere and the leaders of poor countries are silent on gain of function research. It’s not that complicated, and there is evidence that covid was not the first bioweapons screw up with lasting implications.
I’m very disappointed with my fellow citizens on an issue that we could easily do something about. So many of our problems are wicked with no good response. Gain of function research is a rare no-brainer suggesting citizens have no brains.
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Today’s episode of Planet Critical with Jean-Baptiste Fressoz is very good. Fressoz reminds me of Jean Marc Jancovici.
Fressoz explains why the concepts of energy transition and dematerialization are myths, and where these false ideas came from.
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Yes, to everything you wrote above, BUT I found this depressing in that on some level he thinks that carbon capture should be done and that might save us. We are far past that based on Hansen’s recent analysis in your subsequent post and are in for rapid warming and collapse of agriculture/civilization.
AJ
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I’m detecting a significant sea change in the supporters of Trump. Some are turning on him because of middle east policies and freedom of speech violations pushed by the Israel lobby.
I have first hand experience working with Israelis. They are singularly focused on the survival and success of their state. They will do anything to achieve that objective.
My sense is Israel must be getting worried because they have become extremely aggressive at pushing the US to support their agenda.
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I too denote a change in tone of many of the analysts of our current geopolitical situation who were at least tacitly if not actively for Trump. I’m waiting for Tucker to really say something against the genocide and critical of Trump. That would be a sea change. I also note that Scott Ritter still says that Trump has produced something good with Russia and Ukraine in that at least at the moment we’ve avoided WW3 and nuclear war.
I still think my vote for Trump was better than Biden/Harris in that I’m sure we would have started WW3 with Russia if the Democrats had won. But Trump is horrendous when it comes to the rest of geopolitics, his subservience to AIPAC and Isreal AND his attempts to subvert the 1st amendment and free speech.
My only hope is that RFK Jr can do some good.
AJ
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Ritter’s latest theory about what’s going on with Iran is scary:
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xraymike79 returns from poetry to a hard core essay discussing James Hansen’s latest warning which takes into account albedo loss.
My take aways:
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2025/03/20/analysis-how-soon-will-large-scale-collapse-happen/
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I’m not disputing that Hanson is correct, but for once I’d like one of these climate scientists to fully explain this bit to everyone…..
“Without radical action“
What does that look like in the lifestyle of the struggling median income earner in a suburban setting in a developed country? As in a full description. Likewise for agriculture, industry, mining and every other activity of modern civilization..
I never get to here any details about this, it’s usually some type of hand wave about EVs, solar panels, less ‘waste’ or whatever.
In countries where people vote, it’s the important bit, left out of conversations as if it didn’t matter, only saving us from ourselves matters, no matter the cost..
Sorry, but that’s not how the real world works. People will not vote for anyone that promises everyone will be worse off, especially if people perceive themselves as already struggling and the other side of politics claims it’s all hogwash, and they can offer improvements for everyone.
The truth hurts in regards to climate change. We can’t do anything about it unless we collapse modern civilization. The attempt to avoid climate change by building more solar, nuclear, wind and batteries, mean an acceleration of fossil fuel use, bringing on worse climate change sooner and collapsing modern civilization sooner, because of all the ‘extra’ burning of fossil fuels to build it all, plus the extra environment destruction of the new mines, or transmission lines and just ‘growth of the overall human enterprise.
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I agree with your feelings. I pretty much ignore all prescriptions now.
20 years ago Hansen had a prescription for changes to the economy that might of helped but it’s too late now.
I believe Hansen is now advocating for solar radiation management (aka geoengineering) of the polar regions to slow ice melting.
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Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to introduce you to Billy Strings.
He’s my new favorite guitar picker.
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Yeah I’m a huge fan. Been watching and listening to his stuff for a while.
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Well then Rob this is a must watch
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Thanks. That interview introduced me to Billy Strings.
Rick Beato’s channel is excellent for finding good new music.
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How many times in the last 50 years has Heathrow airport been closed due to an unexpected power failure?
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Yikes!
This is the biggest shark jump I’ve ever seen by a smart aware person.
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I don’t know. Seems exactly what a billionaire hellbent on getting to Mars should be saying.
LOL. Stare at that quote for a minute or two. It’s actually hilarious. Maybe the most bullshit packed into one sentence I’ve ever seen.
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How is Elon Musk possibly a smart aware person? He believes that the Earth can support 80 billion people.
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