Coping with Awareness

Stellarwind72 proposed we write an essay on how to remain in good mental health while being aware of our overshoot predicament.

I have assembled here ideas from thirteen un-Denial participants plus my own.

If any reader would like to add their own list of tips, please send me a message and I will update the essay with your contribution.

14-Jun-2024 Friend Jack Alpert, who has developed the only viable plan to minimize suffering and retain some of our species’ best accomplishments, has contributed to this compilation.

ABC

The insights of yours truly, on how to engage with the predicament. 

“We are survival machines – robot vehicles blindly programmed to preserve the selfish molecules known as genes.”
– Richard Dawkins

“Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
– Thucydides

Both statements are correct, philosophically one might describe them followingly. 

Natural selection:

  • “Dao; The Way” 

Maximum Power Principle:

  • “Nietzsche; The Will To Power”

How to perceive the predicament?

  • Strive for power, as an act of self-preservation.

Death is indifferent.

  • What is there to lose?

Charles

We are waiting for the barbarians while getting a free ride and think we are in charge. 

It’s time for a doomer’s jubilee.

Yes, I am happy with what’s happening in the world. Whatever the outcome. Whatever the way it unravels. (Which doesn’t mean I don’t have problems which come and go and need to be solved, up and downs, fears and obsessions probably like many.)

I so wanted to share with you the ticket out of thinker’s hell, out of humanist’s hell. It turns out to be hard. It all seems so simple now, that I don’t even remember what exactly triggered a change of state.

I could try to recount my encounter with non-duality. I could list some of the leads I followed: Ramana Maharshi, UG Krishnamurti, Swami Prajnanpad, Ramesh Balsekar, Paul Hedderman. And, how one day, the whole mental edifice crumbled. The whole indoctrination of science, layers upon layers painstakingly acquired during years of learning, repetition and practice, nothing but rumbles. Not to be replaced.

Would it be understood (comparing science to a belief system is anathema to many: sometimes the only way to notice we are wearing a pair of glasses is to try wearing another one)? Would it be of any use? Isn’t one of the points that no generalization is possible, that every one’s experience is fiercely unique.

Maybe it’s the realisation that there is a limit to our ability to predict the future, or that the worst already happened (more than once) in the past (the Shoah, Native American genocide, …), or witnessing so many experts defending tooth and nail their own version of truth, or noticing that imagination of a dreaded outcome has nothing to do with the actual experience, or going through some hardships and realising that things just go on, or that the world is 1 without 2 (it is as it is and not some imaginary else), or seeing how tough life is on most people yet they somehow manage, or that it’s always all an experience, good or bad, it’s entertaining (like I am the station in front of which trains come and go and I have no agency on which type of trains or the schedule. So I might just as well enjoy the show), or realising the shallowness of the myths that have been stacked one upon each other (by religion, by science, by the self, by the mind, …) and for which we deploy so much fervour and energy.

Maybe it’s simply the recurring small encounters with beauty, with life. Gardening does that for me, fearlessly exchanging with people to reach the depths and truth of an aspect of their mental shape too (as we are doing now), or just greedily inhaling every small details reaching my small field of consciousness.

Or, it may just be getting bored of negativity.

As much as I had wished to share this state, it seems not to be really communicable. It will dawn on you, I am sure. And some day, you will be suddenly laughing out loud in the middle of the fields. If anybody sees you then, they will think all that worrying ended up getting the best of you. 🙂

Anyway, thank you for finding and periodically bringing to our attention smart people doing original thinking on this topic of collapse. I am grateful for your clear eyesight, your ability to separate the chaff from the wheat. Especially, it has been a great support during covid.

To conclude, here are the most important ideas I want to share:

Redemption, betterment, moksha, liberation, self-realization, illumination, enlightedment, progress, self-improvement, planet rescue… As if the world could be any different than it is. As if it could be improved upon. As if we had control. As if the dynamic of life were a math problem with an optimum solution. If you meet the Buddha, kill him. I say burn them all, Fahrenheit 451 style: Buddha, Jesus, Darwin, Einstein, Malthus, the Meadows. They clutter our souls. Time for renewal. Snap out of any form of idealism, absolutely any kind of indoctrination. Now the earth was formless and empty. Go back there and start anew.

To me, it’s thinking which shapes our experience by arbitrarily slicing, labelling everything, arbitrarily picking a perimeter to focus on (identification), a start and an end, creating concepts: birth, death, progress, evolution, species, collapse, NPK (chemistry), MPP, MORT, you name it… That’s all delusional. There is no way anything can be understood. It is not meant to. And that’s fine. There is nothing to be either fearful, angry, saddened or cheerful about. It is just as it is. And that’s awe-striking.

As far as I understand, this is UG Krishnamurti, this is non-duality (not 2, which does not imply 1 either).

And then, there is all that matters, that which can’t be put in words…

el mar

el mar´s approach:

Take care!

  • Be friendly and balanced, don’t believe every bullshit.
  • Be peaceful, self-critical but don’t put up with everything.
  • “Come down”, think “small”, for species-appropriate human husbandry.
  • Buy regionally, support local producers, manufacturers and craftspeople. Eat healthy, fresh, unprocessed food
  • Start a kitchen garden. Start small.
  • Learn something crafty and practical.
  • Cooperate and share with like-minded people.
  • Listen to your inner voice – not to ideologues and pied pipers from the right and left.
  • Avoid mass consumption and mass media.
  • Inspire other people to join this movement.

Saludos

Florian

It’s pretty funny to me, I’m a “young person” (< 40 years) and I’m not following a single of Robs points.

I live in a big city (I was born here) and work in tech (which I enjoy within reason) and I can afford to only work 30h. In a slow collapse scenario I will have to trade my database knowledge for food lol but, personally, this is not the future I envision.

My own version of the future is a lot more bleak so I live my life of pleasure, sitting comfortably in my office hardly working knowing that it could end next month, year or decade. Which also has it upsides because I don’t need to worry about my retirement.

Gaia

Do you remember my post on suffering that you decided should be a guest essay (and that quite floored me to see my words the next day front and centre!)? My core outpouring then, and even more now, is the question, was it all worth it? That so few have benefited so much at the expense of so many? Even to the point of the destruction of our biosphere, endangering life systems at the macro and molecular level through our hubris in thinking we can grasp power and control far beyond our reach. In my darkest hours I feel that deepest, helpless, purging sorrow is the only true emotion we can justifiably claim; all other feelings and reactions to our existence are derivative of our denial that allows us to continue living so. It’s denial that keeps me as positive and equanimous as I seem to all around, if anything I feel an imposter as I should be more depressed and grieving for the world and humanity as a whole.
I consider this recent post a continuation of that lament on suffering and even more a personal outcry of remorse and regret that I was not as conscious of my role and responsibility in the greater good and suffering as I could have been, or if I was aware, I certainly was not courageous as I know is rightful in failing to use my one life boldly to declare justice as others have done.

As children, we naturally understand and feel injustice aggrievedly, possibly because we are otherwise helpless and dependent upon the goodness of others, but also in our naivete and innocence we trust that others know and care how we feel, and would treat us as we and they wish to be. Through a thousand thousand cuts of disappointment and breaches of trust, cog-turning assimilation into the culture and society into which we were born, it comes to pass that we throw off that banner of righteousness and justice in exchange for a yoke of resignation and complacency. We carry our burden with hardly a murmur, willingly or not, wittingly or not, so we can stake our claim of existence in this society upon which we are wholly dependent. To conform with the dominant tribe is our survival strategy, and the more complex our society becomes, it is clear that for the masses there is little choice but to continue the status quo or be cast out. We come to realize our relative individual unimportance to the system, so it is not much of a step to endorse anothers’ insignificance, especially those outside of our tribe. Then it is no matter at all to deny their right to existence, and all manner of injustices become justified. For all my complicitness of inaction, I shall bear my own guilt. It is through recognition of myself in the majority that will lead to my release of judgment for them, and if by grace I can come to some measure of forgiveness, I hope to absolve myself a little, too.

Truth to tell, at some level we know we are here because someone else is not, we have because someone else does not. My ancestors survived at the cost of another, and now I have my material life at the expense of another. There is no way else to balance this equation, however we try to reconcile it. It is all justified because we are who we are, and they are who they are–as in the developed world, complete and worthy, still deciding if the “developing” ones have a right to exist. The colour of our skin, the language we speak, the land we find ourselves, and most expediently, the exchange rate we decided upon, keeps everyone in their own respective domain and hierarchy of who shall have and not have. We call it fair trade to keep us in the West living in our high standard whilst those whose labour and resources we have stolen through our inflated dollars can only keep living in their degraded standards. Any child can see through this unfairness which we have called our globalised world. Genocide still may be abhorrent, but slavery, as long as it is at arm’s length, has its merits. I am a beneficiary of this and cannot and will not erase that stain upon my conscience. We need not wait for AI to overcome our humanity; we have already given away a greater part of that when as a species we chose to continue following the algorithms of power as a method for survival instead of allowing our still small voice of conscience to heed the golden rule. Until we embrace the earth as our village and kinship with all life, we are quite alone on this blue-green planet, spinning alone in this corner of the universe.

I contend that we all have the possibility of a Hitler as well as Mother Theresa–the only difference is quantity of intention and scope of action, but the quality is already in us. It must be so if we are a species together, the family trait of both runs deep and will out given the right circumstances. Our continued survival as a species has depended on at times dominance and exploitation, and at other times, cooperation and altruism. Daily we balance between the spectrum in all our decisions, whether consciously or not. As a species, we perhaps could never have evolved differently, but gifted with the birthright of consciousness and conscience, individually we could have chosen differently. We know it can be done because it has been done, we all have done it–have risen to the occasion of defending the defenseless, be it a rescued bird or standing for a friend against a bully. Courage in those moments is a direct line to our hearts, bypassing our brains working out what is in it for us. I daresay those are the times we felt most alive and sure of our purpose, the moments when we consider anothers’ well-being before our own. This quality of beneficence is every bit a part of our species as well, all we lack is consistency, which is the mark of mastery. Whilst some rare few may achieve instant enlightenment, the other path, however long and arduous, will also reach the goal through awareness and effort. We must be able to practice our kindness and goodness; it matters not how small the task before us as we have the quality already, it is merely the quantity we can choose to increase or withhold. We can choose kindness and rightfulness again and again, until it is no longer a choice but defines us.

Despite these physically, mentally, and emotionally draining times, I am going along as well as I can be, seizing the joy and wonder in every day as I know how precious life, and the passing time that unravels life, are. I now understand clearly why Cicero (considered a Skeptic, not a Stoic) stated that gratitude is the greatest of and the parent of all virtues. I find comfort in managing the daily tasks that so many wish they could do with as much freedom and ease as I have enjoyed all my life, and in helping others by being more generous with my time through practical action or listening ear. Giving back is the choice I am hanging onto for having the privilege of receiving so much. Knowing now as I do that our life of continued ease will be greatly foreshortened due to our own making, crystalises for me the certainty that my remaining days and choices are fast becoming last chances to consolidate what I have learned as a human being on this planet. And even more importantly, to prove to myself that my life has been an examined one and the highest version of what I can be. Whilst I cannot save humanity, I can still save the part of me that can be more grateful, kind, compassionate, accepting and forgiving. It is the only and true thing remaining for me to do, and for which my entire life was preparation.

Rob here, I’ve added to Gaia’s contribution a powerful paragraph she wrote as a comment a month ago:

The on-going genocide of the Palestinians really nailed it for me. Now we know that given the opportunity, we would act just the same way the majority of Germans did, in turning a blind eye to what we know is morally unjust and thinking we can continue with our own lives. We will watch the slaughter and deplore it, but why don’t we have the courage to upend our lives by doing something radical in effort to stop it? It’s the same for the response to Covid. It seems the most radical thing a Westerner can do (and more power to the pro-Palestine youngsters at universities who still have heart and guts) is publicly protest but why are we not all walking out of our jobs or going on hunger strikes and the like? What does it take to really take a stand, to deliberately override every instinct of survival by choosing suffering and even death (like Aaron Bushnell, who conflagrated himself) for an ideal? The drive to protect ourselves and just keep living the lives we are accustomed, especially us in the West is overwhelming–we have too much to lose and we know we cannot survive outside our system. We are workers in the hive, and we are programmed for only the hive. Knowing this, we finally come to understand that we are not free beings and never have been, but that does not mean we do not still have choice and our internal world can be closer to what we want to make it. That’s why the Stoic philosophy is particularly attractive to me; I have succumbed to relinquishing any hope of changing the outer world but I can still find meaning, purpose and joy in life by improving my inner self.

Hamish McGregor

There are no specific actions I take, to help with coping – unless being constantly negative, whining, passive aggressive and excess criticism (of everything) counts.

Hideaway

In working out where we are headed, I cope via a variety of mechanisms. We are a close family, my wife and our children, and we come from close families, so there is always the following of everyone’s progress through life as a positive to look forward to. We are financially well off, as I’ve invested well by predicting the way the world would try to head, given what I know of resources, which has allowed our children to have a much easier path. They are well aware of my findings and none of our children, in their 30’s, have chosen to have kids, so no grandchildren to worry about. They say they will just return to the farm when civilization collapses.

I have native areas of bush (forest for non Aussies) on our property that are regenerating from before we bought, 40 years ago. Taking a long walk through these areas gives a regenerative feel for the world overall. Life will go on after us, until it can’t, but will spring up somewhere else in the universe. Life is for living and I enjoy spreading the word of what’s happening in reality, so it doesn’t get me down at all. We have plenty of food, heat when necessary and great shelter that we built with our own hands. I cut wood from our bush for heating the house, mostly from storm damage, or dead/dying trees as the bush goes through it’s natural succession, so providing our own heat source in winter is also cathartic.

I get a type of internal peace knowing that there is no purpose to life, it just exists, so making the most of it with as many different experiences as possible in great company is what counts. being part of a like minded community of thinkers at un-Denial also helps with sanity as it clearly shows I’m not ‘out of my mind’ with my findings on the direction of the world, so thanks to all contributors at un-Denial and especially to Rob for hosting the site..

Jack Alpert @ https://skil.org/

I am not going to prep for the down slope for four reasons:

  1. There is no protection from the roving hoards. Both, preppers and non-preppers, will end up with nothing to eat but each other very quickly — probably in the next 50 years and most certainly in a hundred years.
  2. Running, hiding, and being the last man eating the last can of corn in the last cupboard is not what I want to work toward.
  3. I cannot drink a good glass of wine and watch the sunset without guilt.
  4. That I am old and I might make it out of here before tragedy strikes brings me no joy.

I will feel bad every day if I do not try to fix things I can see are broken.

Some fixes I do not care to work on. I am done being distracted by efforts to fix the miss perceptions and dysfunctional behaviors resulting from our limbic brain which evolved too slowly to keep up with our cognitive capacities to create civilization’s momentum.

My work focus each day:

  1. Define a viable Human Earth system in terms of behavior that controls  mass and energy flows that can exist continuously without degradation of the earth’s productive capacity.
  2. Define the collective behavior required to transition to this Human Earth system.
  3. Implement the required behavior:
  • i) Extracting bad behavior takers from the population:
    • a) Old age deaths
    • b) Starvation deaths
    • c) Deaths from violence
  • ii) Coerce the required behavior from the remaining population:
    • a) Physical enslavement
    • b) Social contract enslavement
  • iii) Create universal upgrade in cognitive processes in every living person.

Some milestones on this journey:

The existing 8 billion people living today will not be living in 2100. They will have died from:

  1. Old age
  2. Starvation
  3. Violence

The human population that exists in 2100 will be the sum of births after today. If the system that is viable under the above definitions is only 50 million that means births will have to be limited to about 500,000 a year.

If we have only natural births, not test tube babies, that will initially be only 1 birth for every 140 woman, but will increase until it reaches 2.00 in 50 years.

Implementing this will be a challenge.

At one extreme it will require immediate sterilization of 8 billion people with some mechanism for refertilization to get 500,000 annual births.

This path creates great injury and can only be selected when compared to the worse alternative of an estimated 13.4 billion people dying of starvation and conflict during the next 80 years on the present path.

The rest of the transition is equally painful and difficult to implement.

I expect that existing cultural machinery will struggle and probably fail in making a transition to the defined viable civilization. It is more likely to descend into a dark age — probably with little chance of recovery to present science and technology.

Some other more powerful transition mechanisms may be applied by groups or individuals to our predicament. Individuals may soon become powerful enough to sterilize the 8 billion. Others may become capable of culling any portion of the 8 billion.

These options may be implemented (not abiding current ethics) with much lower total lives or environments injured.

These alternative paths forward for the human experiment on earth may be selected and implemented  independent of existing organizations.

I have worked my entire adult life understanding the creation of cognitive processes that if they were universal among the 8 billion, the collected behavior to implement a viable earth system would be possible. Each individual behavior would result with the same reliability as that individual selecting to not step off the curb in front of a rushing bus.

I have made much progress but lacking a quick and universal way of inserting these cognitive abilities into a whole global population over night I imagine the individual-produced interventions of sterilization and culling to be implemented to avoid the unrecoverable dark age on our horizon.

marromai

As far as I can see, it always comes down to the same thing: oneself is powerless when it comes to the big picture, you can only make sure that you and your loved ones are doing well. That’s also what I try to do as best as I can (like the closing words from my first guest post – carpe diem).

My coping methods are:

  • I am present at work because I need the money, but I only do the minimum required. I know that our economic system is doomed, but I cannot survive without it because I am inevitably a part of it.
  • I avoid the mass media and scrutinize any news.
  • The state is not my friend. I avoid contact wherever possible. State rules and laws are interpreted as flexibly as possible to my advantage (of course only where they don’t harm other people).
  • Most people don’t know what I know or dismiss it as nonsense. I keep my knowledge to myself and don’t try to “convert” anyone.
  • Current “Science” is just another religion – I know that I know nothing. However, (old) science offers us models and techniques that explain many things well or have made them possible in the first place. I use these where it makes sense to me.
  • I am not afraid of death, because I will return to the big picture – only dying could be unpleasant…
  • We will never understand the big picture, because as long as we are alive we are a split-off part of it, and can therefore never observe it in its entirety.
  • “I hope that when the world comes to an end, I can breathe a sigh of relief because there will be so much to look forward to.” (Donnie Darko)

But nonetheless:

  • Try not to worry too much – as long as I can survive this day, the next one will also be possible. It’s like an incremental approach on living 🙂

To conclude with a quote from “A Book for No One“:

We should stop sinking into depressive moods we have created and start enjoying life in the here and now. The doomsday fantasies are due to the phase of prosperity, in which the human brain looks for new problems because our fundamental needs have already been satisfied. Even in ancient Rome, doomsday prophecies and the proclamation of new ages were booming – and yet the Romans lived relatively well for centuries without apocalyptic upheavals.

nikoB

nikoB’s farm

1993 was when I first became aware that progress (as we in the west generally think of it) was not really leading us to this consequence-free wonderful utopia in the not too distant future. The first was witnessing first hand, the clearfell logging occurring in forests across Australia. The second event that got doubts flowing in my head was my uncle casually remarking – what are we going to do when oil runs out?

Over the next decade I was a rampant greenie, studying ecology and horticulture but not really putting much of the bigger picture together. Climate change was a problem but still so far away – so fixable. That was all to change when a friend invited me to a lecture by Richard Heinberg and David Holmgren. Peak oil came and put a stop to all my illusions. The door was opened and I stepped through.

It was 2006 and I was in my mid-thirties with a young family just starting out. It wasn’t long before I was aware of the Oil Drum, Nate Hagens, Jim Kunstler, Dmitry Orlov, The Druid JM Greer, the Chris Martenson crash course and many, many other places of ideas and discussion. To say this altered my thinking on everything is a massive understatement. Priorities changed overnight and I launched myself into a personal crusade to bring the truth of the peril that awaited us to anyone who would listen.

So fast forward to today, to cut through what is really a fairly dull story with maybe a few juicy details, I basically learnt that no one gives a “solidly digested meal” about resource depletion and overshoot. No matter how many ways you approach the subject. For it became a passion to try and work out the magical key that will unlock humanity’s thinking. All it did was result in the loss of close friends and family. I was mostly just a downer to people when I used to be one of the funniest people in the room (thanks to class clown training).

So where does this leave me now nearly 20 years later of being a peak oiler and recent anti-vaxxer. Reevaluating everything I do because what I have been doing hasn’t yielded results in changing minds.

I am lucky to be blessed with a partner who shares much of the same view of overshoot and its consequences. We spend quite a substantial amount of time discussing all the issues it brings bubbling to the surface. I am also blessed in that she shares the same passion for self sufficiency living that I do and together we work our little farm in the hinterlands of the northern rivers area of New South Wales Australia.

What I am slowly coming to the realisation of, is that we must not lose our passions, humanity and connections. For too long they were side lined and sacrificed for the greater virtue of telling everyone just how it is. The loss I felt was immense but that was balanced by the anger that I felt that nobody could see that what I think is so bloody obvious and that no one cares to do anything about it.

So in order to repair broken relationships (because I miss them) I have had to change my priorities and my thinking as well I suppose, so that I don’t just naturally clash with most people. This is difficult, especially not judging people for their ignorance and self destructive behaviours. But as it turns out I have all my own ignorant self destructive behaviours.

Maybe time is short before collapse makes living a nightmare, Hideaway makes many compelling arguments that this complex system is exceedingly brittle and can only withstand so many spanners thrown into the gears. Or perhaps the druid is right and that the collapse is catabolic, step by step, some big, some small but pretty much all down hill. Either way my thinking has changed on how to deal with it, though I must say the covid saga produced a huge detour and removed many friends from my circle and I would venture to say that most are not destined to return. But now I am getting back on track to living while compartmentalising the potential horror of a potential future.

I have decided to let go of the major criticisms I have of the human condition which are beautifully spelt out here in Rob’s blog over and over again. I don’t know if any of it really matters as we are all dead in the end. It is the journey as they say that matters not the destination. If we really think about it we know that is true as the destination is a hole in the ground.

So now I look to seeking the connections I can find with people that are easy to build on and see where it leads. Time to encourage rather than discourage. Soak up the interpersonal transactions and notice when something deeper occurs. But at the same time I won’t gladly immerse myself in exchanges full of bovine discharges.

As a focus for my own passions, I am back to making music, finding the humour in most things without resorting to be overly sarcastic or caustic. Observing and appreciating absurdity is great for that. Giving love as much as I can and forgetting the anger and the hate. I won’t pretend that it is easy but it does seem to be the most beneficial path and I must remember to forgive myself if I stray from it at times.

Paqnation (aka Chris)

Surprisingly, our story was more depressing to me when I was in full Daniel Quinn sustainable/wisdom mode. The whole “where did we go wrong” thing haunts you when you know humans “can” get it right. Now that un-Denial has set me straight on some of these core issues, our story is less depressing in that respect. I do think denial is at the heart of the matter, but I bounce around on how much emphasis to put on MORT, eToM, and MPP. And I am now slowly shifting to a new state of mind where it’s all about energy constraints and you can pretty much throw everything else out the window.

Society can be full of Quinn type worldviews or full of overshoot, MORT aware citizens. It doesn’t matter. Once those sacred constraints are broken, there is no way out of the madness. And there is no way to resist using this new energy technology because if you don’t, someone else will, and you will be conquered and/or killed. By the time your civilization has enough EROEI to start understanding concepts like overshoot and sustainable vs unsustainable… it’s too late. You are now way too addicted to the comforts of this energy surplus to voluntarily decrease usage. And you’re already in massive overshoot because of all the self-induced damage to your environment (mining and domestication of plants/animals). Ditto for your worldviews too. Separation of nature along with a superior way of looking at your own species are unavoidable default worldviews that come along with busting through energy constraints. The most depressing thing for me nowadays is the realization that this kind of modern intelligence (cleverness) has no purpose in the entire universe.

I have two techniques for my sanity. One thing is trying to accept the inevitability of it all. Understanding that the best-case scenario for Mother Earth is NTHE, helps me to go with more of a “I might as well partake in the Peak before it’s all gone” mentality. But the most important technique is hanging out on this website. When I first came onto the scene of un-Denial, I was shot out of a cannon. The two years prior that I was learning about overshoot, etc., I never had a reliable outlet to ask any questions. That all changed when I got here. I cannot talk to anyone in my personal life about collapse, but now I have an online support group. The following is more of a love letter to you guys for how much you’ve given me and my appreciation for being part of this Tribal Connection.

Here are some quotes I collected from un-Denial comments that caused me think and increased my awareness:

Monk: Something that helps me a lot is when I see dumped rubbish, which happens a lot in “magical NZ”. And I just think to myself how excited I am for collapse, because spoilt brat humans don’t deserve everything that we’ve got when we can’t even do something so basic for nature as pointing rubbish in the bin.

Rob: For the last 10,000 years we broke through normal resource constraints with agriculture (bigger share of solar energy) and fossil energy (ancient solar energy) and became a destructive unsustainable species, that is smart enough to know better, but denies what it is doing.

Mike: In a climax ecosystem, the system appears to be in balance with all species living in harmony. But it’s an illusion and no species intended it that way. Quinn probably got it wrong, in that respect. (Chris here, Mike calling out Quinn like that was the beginning of my internal temper tantrum)

Gaia: So over time, the ascendancy of lighter skinned humans in the cooler climates prevailed and these were the climates where agriculture and feudal living flourished, cementing the dominance of this culture type rather than the nomadic style of earlier hunter/gatherer societies which matched well with the grassland/savannah fauna of equatorial Africa.

Rob: The probability of getting 100% of things wrong by mistake is 0%.

Monk: They dug up a lot of roman prepping gold in villas in the UK. Funny to think of them prepping all that gold and never getting to use it.

Hamish: Too many people treat dogs like fashion accessories and discard them immediately when they have health issues.

NikoB: I always think of it in terms of give and take. What did you take from this world in order to live and what did you give back?

AJ: …reinforcing my opinion that the grandchildren of the victims of genocide are now the perpetrators of genocide.

Charles: I love watching the activity in a compost bin, on the surface of a decomposing carcass, the eerie colours of mushrooms feeding off dead logs… Death doesn’t really feel like an end: there is so much activity going on, and (in good temperature and moisture conditions) recycling happens so fast one can almost witness the migration of energy.

Rob: I envy people who obtain comfort from believing there is some form of spirituality in the universe that cares about us. Unfortunately I see a flow of electrons looking for a home.

Gaia: That’s just it, Rob! I identify best with being a bunch of electrons looking for a home! …Then the electrons I borrowed can go do something else for the rest of eternity.

Stellarwind72: What if intelligence over a certain level is inherently maladaptive on long timescales, because it allows you to destroy the very ecology you depend upon.

Hamish: If I ever have to turn away people seeking help, I will offer them my thoughts and prayers – that seems to be the solution to all calamities from the shit stains in Washington DC and state capitals.

ABC: “Progress” equals to mental regress in many if not most aspects, nothing short of “wickedness”.

Florian: If you are happy with what you have or even downsize then you are, from an evolutionary perspective, a defective individual and the chance is very very high that you will be thrown on the genetic trash heap. There is this saying, To understand all is to forgive all and while it can be hard to not show emotion in this absolute cluster-fuck there is absolutely no point to attach yourself to an outcome.

Charles: Life, to me is a constant invitation (sometimes quite painful) to open up to possibilities.

Rob: I’m still fascinated by denial. I see it every day in every single person I interact with. No one speaks reality, except the few that hang out here.

AJ: The lack of humility and stating that one could make a mistake, always makes me suspicious of a person’s conclusions.

Monk: Without fossil fuels the planet would have become a frozen wasteland. It looked like earth was heading for permanent ice age because too much carbon got lock up.

Rob: I believe one of the reasons we had so much coal is that large plants were enabled by the evolutionary invention of lignin and it took quite a while for fungi to figure out how to digest lignin. Today coal would not accumulate in the same quantities.

Notabilia: Remember, none of us fossil fuel colossi have to stick around when our inherited profligate way of existence hits the ground below the cliff. That will become the one remaining “civil right”. (Chris here, this one got me focused on writing my exit strategy article)

ABC: Wisdom has no inherent value in a world of energy, and never stood a chance against unhinged violence.

NikoB: Perhaps having a good spice rack will put those cannibalism fears to rest.

Stellarwind72: Our leaders seem to think that if Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, he will invade several other countries, similar to what Hitler did after the Munich agreement.

Gaia: Maybe we can even say that MORT (denial) has been our species’ only true religion, for through it we almost became like the gods, or more poetically, it was the way in which the gods could become human.

Charles: I believe Quinn/Murphy’s story will propagate because it shows a possible way ahead for survival. It is becoming useful in this world of limits, of civilisation/technology collapse.

Hideaway: Crocodiles have existed in pretty much the same form for 200 million years, that’s long term sustainability.

Monk: Anthropologists do think pre-historic people had a lot more sex than their civilized counterparts.

Charles: I find the terms reincarnation and “life after death” misleading. They are too loaded. One should perhaps use “informational remnant through structural reorganization”.

Hamish: I’ve given up on the idea of saving people, society, knowledge, culture, wisdom. If I can help nature that will be enough.

Rob: The problem is our citizens, not our leaders.

Hideaway: Increasingly I’m thinking most major solar and wind installations are nothing more than a scam paid for by subsidies from the government, then quickly sold to whatever pension fund that wants ‘green’ credentials in their portfolio.

Stellarwind72: If MORT is true, the story of humanity will turn out to be a tragedy. The species intelligent enough to realize it is in overshoot doesn’t do much about it due to denial.

Rob: Life is not some spiritual mystery, but rather a predictable outcome of the fact that the universe abhors an energy gradient, and life is its best mechanism for degrading energy. (and) “If life is nothing but an electron looking for a place to rest, death is nothing but that electron come to rest.” (Rob here, I think that’s a paraphrased quote from Dr. Nick Lane)

Chris here. These next two get me emotional and make me think about what could’ve been (Closest to me ever having my own family was in 2003, but we both agreed on abortion. One of my biggest regrets).

ABC: I’d like to have a family, rear children and experience being a father. I know it is extremely selfish if not cruel by all definitions knowing our predicament, however I cannot shake this primal biological urge of self-interest and naïveté of having a “sense of meaning”.

CampbellS: We saw the southern lights, aurora astralis, here in the Far North of NZ. First time for me in my 53 years. Pretty spectacular and awe inspiring. Was nice to share it with my teenage kids.

And this is a nice little moment between the young, cocky Skywalker and the much wiser Obi-Wan Kenobi. They could both see the magic early on:

Paqnation: I actually think he/she is Art Berman, Simon Michaux or someone like that. I have a hard time with energy (which is why I love Sid Smith), but Hideaway is like an energy oracle.

Rob: Hideaway is better than both Berman and Michaux. Berman is deeper on oil but shallower on other energies and overshoot. Michaux has some worrying woo-woo.

One final note. While going through all my comments, I came across what is by far the most MORT thing on this entire website = My anti-pornography article. 😊

scarr0w

My journey to tranquility ( 🙂 ) is as follows:

I’ve known for as long as I have memory that I was “different”. Not exactly on the spectrum, not genius, not sociopath, but maybe a dash of each. I was in parochial school my first four years, and it was not a good fit for me. To get along, one should just fill in the answer blanks in your Baltimore Catechism workbook, not ask the nun to explain grace. Questioning the pablum we are spoon fed is not a way to be one of the gang.

Anyway, from childhood experiences, I over time built a mental outlook that more or less has evolved to be expressed best by the Niebuhr/Wygal serenity prayer. I generally kept my own council, especially when I fully realized the overshoot predicament we are in while working for a company that builds stuff for the fossil industry. I guess you could say I was “in the closet”.

Serenity, or at least equanimity is not an easy thing to maintain all the time, but I’ve gotten better over time. Raising kids, staying on the treadmill even after realizing that’s what it is, etc… can test your resolve. While I follow collapse progress and analysis at sites like Rob’s and several others, it is more to keep current, not to perseverate on (and let’s face it, being witness to this huge event in the human story is fascinating). Mostly I am grateful that I was lucky enough to be born in a location and time that will never be again.

Currently, some mental energy is on local political issues (I’m on the county board, trying to see opportunities to shift policy into more future ready states), but primarily I try to slowly make a few acres of land more in tune with what the local biome wants to be. That will be enough.

I liked a lot of what others said, especially Gaia, but since my emotion circuits were partly burnt out as a kid, I just don’t get wound up over the path out culture has chosen, or my role in it. I know others suffer and indirectly I benefit, those of us aware just have to live with a foot in both worlds, slowly reducing our complicity as best we can. Not much help for others, but that’s where I am.

Stellarwind72

Being overshoot aware constantly weighs on me. Given my young age (I was born right before the turn of the millennium), I know that the sh*t will hit the fan in my lifetime. From time to time, I feel existential dread. I know that there is a substantial risk of me dying early due to the effects of overshoot and collapse.

Sometimes just being able to talk about this issue with other people helps me with anxiety, knowing that there are other people who are aware of what is going on.

I sometimes like listening to classical music and taking hot baths to calm my nerves, but given how those are both dependent on large amounts of surplus energy (I mostly listen to classical music on YouTube), I don’t know how long I will be able to keep doing that.

Rob Mielcarski

In no particular order of importance, here are some things that have helped me remain partially sane with overshoot awareness.

Collapse Early and Avoid the Rush

There is no way to predict which of the many paths we will take (inflation, deflation, war, confiscation, theft, etc.), however we know with certainty that the destination of fossil energy depletion will be less material wealth, less food abundance, a lower energy lifestyle, and much less help from governments.

I think it is a wise strategy to voluntarily downsize your lifestyle and learn to live happily with less so that when everyone else is shocked and losing their minds due to loss of wealth and entitlements, you are already happily living the new normal.

Some things that have worked for me include:

  • Pretend you can’t buy gasoline and see how little driving you can get by with.
  • Stop flying. Find ways to vacation locally like camping.
  • Monitor your electricity consumption in real time and practice using less.
  • Practice food storage and preparation without refrigeration.
  • Practice low energy cooking like one-pot meals and pressure cooking.
  • Practice living at lower temperatures in the winter.
  • Shower when dirty, not every day.
  • Change clothes when they are dirty, not every day.
  • Stop eating out. Cook all your food from scratch.
  • Cut your own hair.
  • Maintain your vehicles yourself.
  • Practice fixing things that break.

Local Food

I think we face 5 main threat vectors and it is unclear which will strike first:

  • nuclear war (due to resource scarcity)
  • accelerating warming (due to aerosol reduction)
  • asset bubble crash (due to extreme debt and degrowth)
  • energy scarcity (due to depletion of low-cost non-renewable reserves)
  • deadly covid variant a la Bossche (due to our idiot unethical leaders)

The most important common denominator is likely to be food scarcity.

I once had a dream to buy a farm and build a doomstead. I took a small scale farming course and after about 5 years of employment as a farm laborer I learned that I lacked the money and the passion and the time to pull it off successfully. So I switched to plan B. I now assist a local farm with construction and maintenance in return for a source of local food. I still buy the majority of my calories at the grocery store but I know we can ramp up calorie production when SHTF.

Prepping

I work hard at being a wise frugal prepper which means I stock things that:

  • I like to eat and have a good shelf life so they won’t be wasted
  • are likely to become scarce first like protein, fat, and caffeine
  • are essential for good health
  • are purchased when on sale to save money

I maintain a detailed spreadsheet of consumables with quantity, cost, date of purchase, best-by date, storage location, date opened, date finished, and predicted duration the item will last. This allows me to:

  • track my consumption of each item so I can accurately predict how long each will last, and to adjust inventory levels based on my assessment of world events
  • track price inflation and to stock more of what is expected to inflate fastest
  • rotate inventory so I always eat the oldest first
  • conduct shelf life tests and record results so I know when a best-by date can extended or ignored
  • calm down – reviewing my spreadsheet reduces my stress

I have methodically gone through every durable item and service I use and asked what will I do if that item breaks and cannot be fixed or replaced, or can’t be fueled. For those items that I consider essential I have purchased a spare, or I have plan for accomplishing the same thing a different way, or I know I can do without. Here are a few examples:

  • my town water supply is not gravity fed and depends on electric pumps so I installed a hand operated pitcher pump on an old shallow well on my property
  • I can light my living area with 4 different types of energy
  • I can cook with 7 different types of energy
  • I can heat my living area with 3 different types of energy and I have practiced living with the thermostat at 15C
  • I have 4 different modes of transportation and I have some spare parts
  • I can keep my refrigerator operating, which is the main thing I care about in a power outage, for a couple weeks
  • I have spare parts to keep my computer, which is my main indoor hobby, going until I’m dead
  • I have spare hiking boots, which is my main outdoor hobby, to last until I’m too old to hike

Doing something to prepare provides a sense of agency over things out of my control which improves my mental well-being.

Prepping is of course not a fix to permanent scarcity or a catastrophe, but it might sustain life during a temporary shortage, and it might make life more enjoyable when non-essential but highly valued items like coffee become unavailable.

Prepping can be a good use of limited savings given that inflation is a likely outcome of energy scarcity. I smile every time I see price increases on things I have in inventory.

Health

When things get tough, good health will be one of our most important assets.

Most available employment will require manual labor, and if you’re out of shape and overweight you may be unemployable.

I expect pensions and safety nets to vaporize so many will be forced to work until they die.

I expect the availability and affordability of health care services to decline as governments become impoverished.

Covid taught me that I do not want to use our unethical and incompetent healthcare system if I can avoid it.

So I try to maintain good health by:

  • eating healthy unprocessed, low sugar foods
  • fasting 16 hours every day
  • getting some exercise
  • sleeping 8 hours
  • taking a few critical supplements like vitamin D and C
  • no alcohol or tobacco

Gratitude

Someone wise said something like “the foundation of happiness is gratitude”.

I believe it.

The lifestyle of the poorest Canadian is better than a pharaoh. It is easy to forget how lucky we are in the rich western countries at this point in history.

The majority of my good fortune came from being born in Canada, not from my skill or hard work.

So I try to be grateful.

A few things that work for me include:

  • cook deliberately: I plan my meals, and I think about the path the food took to get to my kitchen, and I try to show respect to the food by cooking it nicely, and wasting nothing
  • eat deliberately: I try to slow down and appreciate what I am eating
  • drive deliberately: when I press the accelerator I think about the miracle of fossil energy
  • shower deliberately: I think about the path the water took to get to my house, and the energy it took to heat the water, and what a luxury a hot shower is

Learn to Enjoy Your Own Company

I spend quite a bit of time alone for several reasons:

  • I find it easier to “collapse early and avoid the rush” when I am not surrounded by people competing for status
  • nobody likes being around a doomer, I’m invited less these days
  • I struggle to chit chat about things that do not matter
  • I have become less tolerant of people who believe nonsense and are incapable of changing beliefs regardless of evidence – yes I know MORT is often the cause, but I still don’t enjoy the company of people in denial

So I have learned to enjoy my own company.

I have conversations with myself, and I listen to interesting (and sometimes aware) people via podcasts and audiobooks, and I interact with a few nice and aware people at un-Denial.

MORT

When you become overshoot aware you realize there is near zero awareness and zero discussion in society about anything that matters, and not only are we doing nothing that a wise species should do, we are doing everything possible to make our predicament worse. This can be crazy making.

Understanding Dr. Ajit Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory has been a big help to maintaining my mental health because it provides a scientific explanation for why almost everyone in the world, including our brightest intellectuals and all of our leaders, are oblivious to everything that matters.

If I Was a Young Person

If I was a young person, knowing what I know now, and wondering what to do, I would:

  • not live in a big city
  • avoid occupations that depend on discretionary spending (except maybe brewing beer and distilling alcohol)
  • learn a useful skill that poor people will need and value
  • learn a skill that can be performed with today’s complex power equipment, and yesterday’s simpler manual equipment
  • I’d personally lean towards a trade like carpentry, plumbing, masonry, electrician, roofer, mechanic, etc. but I’m sure there are many other viable occupations
  • farming would be good but land is too expensive for most people to buy today; a good compromise is a skill that generates income and a home garden or rented community garden plot that you tend after work; or if you are passionate about farming, join a good farm as a laborer and work up to a position with responsibility

569 thoughts on “Coping with Awareness”

  1. Bravo!!! Way better than I expected. It’s almost sensory overload, like 5 guest essays rolled into one. Great job everyone, that was truly beautiful.

    And thanks to Rob for putting it all together, that must have taken some time. (and you said you had nothing left to say. Shame on you 😊. Yours could have easily been a stand-alone guest essay)

    Gonna have to read the whole thing again in the morning. I’m drained and exhausted, time for bed.

    p.s. I have noticed that there is a phobia of being the first one to comment when a new guest essay pops up. I even have a little bit of it right now. What the hell is that?

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  3. Thank you Rob and ABC, Gaia, Hideaway, Paqnation and Stellarwind72. That was great.

    After [this exchange with Rob](https://un-denial.com/2024/04/09/radical-reality-by-hideaway-and-radical-acceptance-by-b/comment-page-3/#comment-98451), I guess I misunderstood the instructions: I thought I had nothing to do to have my part added to the post 🙂 That’s OK, even better, because ultimately, I find there is only one thing I want to truly share.

    To me, it’s thinking which shapes our experience by arbitrarily slicing, labelling everything, arbitrarily picking a perimeter to focus on (identification), a start and an end, creating concepts: birth, death, progress, evolution, species, collapse, NPK (chemistry), MPP, MORT, you name it… That’s all delusional. There is no way anything can be understood. It is not meant to. And that’s fine. There is nothing to be either fearful, angry, saddened or cheerful about. It is just as it is. And that’s awe-striking.

    As far as I understand, this is UG Krishnamurti, this is non-duality (not 2, which does not imply 1 either).

    And then, there is all that matters, that which can’t be put in words…

    Like

    Reply

    2. Dear Charles,

      I hope thou are feeling well.

      I have lost faith and become completely amoral, 19/20 of all Homo Sapiens are either not worthy or most likely will be in the long term surviving.

      A totalitarian regime which reduces population humanely or inhumanely, an obvious choice.

      Gain power to reduce misery, all other measures do not address the meta issue.

      • All hail Plato’s philosopher king

      Or alternatively, as a performer would utter;
      “Enjoy the freak show.”

      Kind and warm regards,

      ABC

      Like

      Reply

    3. How could my spiritual advisor of been left off the essay. Such blasphemy. 😊

      Did not think the essay could be improved upon but adding you and the others has made it even better.

      Like

      Reply

  4. Rob here, Florian’s ideas have been copied into the main essay.

    It’s pretty funny to me, I’m a “young person” (< 40 years) and I’m not following a single of Robs points.

    I live in a big city (I was born here) and work in tech (which I enjoy within reason) and I can afford to only work 30h. In a slow collapse scenario I will have to trade my database knowledge for food lol but, personally, this is not the future I envision.

    My own version of the future is a lot more bleak so I live my life of pleasure, sitting comfortably in my office hardly working knowing that it could end next month, year or decade. Which also has it upsides because I don’t need to worry about my retirement.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Living normally and enjoying life until whatever comes is a very common strategy. I can’t do it but I can see its merits.

      I was certain the end was near after the 2008 GFC. I could have used the last 16 years to increase my pecking order status and to burn a bunch of jet fuel to see the world.

      Maybe the money printing wizards will squeeze another 16 years and then I’ll be dead, and my prepping will have been for nought.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Given that we reached peak oil and the downward trajectory is due in the next year or two I wouldn’t take that bet regarding the money printing wizards. Good luck to us all!

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  7. el gato malo, one of the better covid dissidents, is not overshoot aware, like almost all of his covid dissident colleagues.

    If you catch the government lying on important issues (gain of function research, PCR, Ivermectin, mRNA, energy transition to fix climate change, green growth, growth with carbon taxes, Russia was unprovoked, etc.) then it’s reasonable to assume everything else they say is also a lie.

    I predict history will show it was a really bad idea to lie about everything in the early days of covid, and then to double down and not correct those lies when the evidence became overwhelming.

    A really bad idea.

    Someday soon the government may need to say something that is true and really important, and it would helpful if citizens believed them.

    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/kitten-corner-degrowth-degrees

    degrowth is basically utopian collectivist command and control systems to dismantle free market capitalism in the name of pursuing some hazy concept of human well being (as defined by experts and technocrats).

    it’s the venn intersect of “benign despotism” “happy clappy gaia worship” and “economics denial.”

    Like

    Reply

    1. In his next post, el gato malo takes down the bird flu lies.

      debbie “the calamity” birx is back pushing a new crisis. if it sounds a lot like “the old crisis” well, when you hire cut rate staff writers, you get derivative plotlines. this time, it’s bird flu and it’s infecting cows and soon will ravage us all unless we take dire action. you can pretty much guess the rest of the movie.

      https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/birx-brained-on-bird-flu

      Which reminds me of:

      Like

      Reply

  8. What an awesome post. I will be rereading this over the next several days. I too thought the GFC was the end and prepared for the worst. I loved so many pieces of this. I have not been on this site for very long but collapse aware since 2005. I will be heading back to many of your previous posts to see this Theory of Mind MORT and learn as much as I can. Ever since I learned about the Optimism Bias I thought that was the problem with humans not getting our predicament but this takes it much further. I look forward to taking a deep dive.

    Rob your comments here:

    “Learn to Enjoy Your Own Company

    I spend quite a bit of time alone for several reasons”

    completely resonated with me. I wish I had known about this site many years ago I would have liked to hang out with you all online. I went through much of my journey of understanding alone and so many times it was really hard. I thought either I was the crazy one in a sane world or the sane one in a crazy world. Don’t know if you all have talked about the Post Doom website but I wanted to point out Karen Perry’s 15 benefits of collapse acceptance is an excellent read.

    Bravo!

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    2. Hello Nancy. Thanks for reminding me about Karen Perry and her 15 benefits of collapse acceptance. Her husband Jordan Perry’s interview was by far my favorite of the whole series. (linked both at the bottom) 

      1. FREEDOM – the move away from shoulds to the open doors of coulds. “Get off the hamster wheel to stop building the castle, live where/how desired if possible.”
      2. URGENCY – ‘No time like the present’ has never meant more. “Take that trip, quit that job, buy that house, do that thing — now.”
      3. PARAMETERS – playing the game with a different framework and lens. “Baby or not? Pre-emptive medical procedures? Tax penalty concerns?”
      4. PRESENCE – focus on today with heightened awareness of being here now. “Acceptance is the meditation. Be-ing is more important than do-ing.”
      5. GRATITUDE – impossible to ignore all we’ve been given (and taken). “Make the list: hot showers, full grocery stores, internet, trash pickup, on demand everything…”
      6. CALM GROUNDING – not disrupted by catastrophic information. “‘Can you believe it? The (fill in the blank) happened/is getting worse!’ (Yawn), yes I can.”
      7. COMMUNITY / LOCALISM – ability to affect those in close proximity. “Restore a nearby land base, push back on development projects, connect with neighbors.”
      8. RELEASE – good riddance to pressure and guilt. “Don’t have to fix it, solve it, fight it, save it. Hooray!”
      9. UNIVERSALISM – heightened connection to the Oneness of everything. “Tap into the collective coherence, look a non-human in the eyes, feel the force.”
      10. EMPATHY – towards self and all others. “Give yourself extra grace, love, and compassion. Help, not squish, the spider. Someone flips you off? No worries, mate, I feel ya, collapse sucks.”
      11. PRIVILEGE PERSPECTIVE – ability to view it and use it in a radical way. “Cash out retirement accounts to set others free; group up to live more affordably.”
      12. AMENDS – having bags packed and ready to go. “Right wrongs with whomever; feed birds; give back to community of life.”
      13. DEATH COMFORT – collapse acceptance forces the conversation and preparation. “Work on an exit strategy plan and a balanced spiritually for what comes next.”
      14. LETTING GO – of control, worry, fear, guilt, blame, shame. “No need to sweat the small stuff. No purity test to pass.”
      15. ENJOYMENT of Global Hospice Time – have fun with the bucket list! “Honor all that has been sacrificed for and taken by you; do this by enjoying and loving life as much as possible.”

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  9. Canadian Prepper summarizes what he thinks is important right now…

    https://x.com/PrepperCanadian/status/1801351858625331270

    So here’s what’s up…

    1) DEFCON is classified; i.e., you literally (legally) won’t be told when nuclear war is about to start.

    2) The priority in any crisis is the continuity of government, not ensuring that you, as an individual, survive.

    3) NATO jets, pilots, weapons, and ISR (though an elaborate masquerade) are about to start striking targets within Russia, a clearly demarcated red line.

    4) As a result, a panoply of experts agree that we’re closer to a nuclear incident than ever before.

    5) The government and its oligarchical affiliates tend to lie.

    6) The highly centralized western media isn’t talking about any of this.

    7) Intelligent high net worth individuals are building bunkers, ‘agrarian bunkers’, off-grid retreats and stockpiling food and precious metals.

    That is all.

    Like

    Reply

  10. I just added a wonderful section to the essay above by nikoB.

    It resonates with me because I do have a little voice in my head saying I made a mistake walking away from friends and family because they deny reality or tried to pressure me to transfect myself with mRNA.

    Like

    Reply

    1. LOL. The essay is getting better and better every time I check back on this site. It’s like Nate’s superorganism analogy. Just keeps growing and growing and has a mind of its own. Hopefully soon, it will take over the world. 😊

      Like

      Reply

    1. No, just toooo busy trying to recover the yards and gardens from the ravages on the ice storm in January / February and advancing age. My wife would never come here as she is the definition of DENIAL of any chance of collapse/overshoot.

      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Ya, that’s gotta be tough. But still better than having no partner, trust me.

        Your comment reminded me of an older comment from – I think his name was Marowmai (sorry if thats wrong name, but I could not find the comment). It was something along the lines of “Ya, I’m still on this site, but everyday life can be depressing, especially living with my wife.”

        LOL. I hope I’m in the ballpark on that quote. I even think you chimed in AJ with something funny about your wife too.

        Like

        Reply

  12. Thank you everyone who has shared their story. Lots of value and commonality in each piece. I will make time to contribute something of my own in the near future. Cheers

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  13. Thank you all for the personal insights. It feels like there are now more pieces of the puzzle in place. I think it is a picture of a smiling electron or perhaps that is its sarcastic face -still hard to tell.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  14. I started to write something to contribute, got two sentences and then writers block.

    The contributions above are awesome, my thanks to all those that did.

    There are no specific actions I take, to help with coping – unless being constantly negative, whining, passive aggressive and excess criticism (of everything) counts.

    Like

    Reply

    2. Love that comment because it makes me feel a little bit normal. I’m hoping you’re not heavy into gardening/farming.

      A recent post by CampbellS got me back into watching the yt channel Happen Films. Great videos and interviews with David Holmgren type permaculture people. And even though I know understand that all of that stuff is unsustainable in the long-long term, this is still obviously what the world should have been striving to be more like. Seems like un-Denial is full of these types. I was absolutely positive NikoB was more like me, but the essay showed he’s one of you. Made me start thinking that I stand out from this audience, big time. Surely there are some other lazy, non-self-reliant Empire Babies in the crowd… right?

      See that makes me go back to what I have dreaded for a while. Yes, if your lifestyle involves a decent portion of gardening/farming, then you have a much better chance of being somewhat aware of how life works and then maybe getting to that overshoot + un-Denial level. But if you’re the other 70% of the world (I bet its higher), that doesn’t have enough experience with it, then it most likely takes a very rare life changing event.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  15. Charles’s bit made me think about my own journey out of what he calls “thinker’s hell” though I wouldn’t use that term. From peak oil in 2005 to all of the ecological mess that humans are making, as well as the short term day-to-day stuff that gets us all riled up from time to time, it’s been a constant journey of trying to find the reality among all of the illusions. Although I have been a sucker for conspiracy theories in the past, I think I’ve found a way to question everything, even if it is some current opinion I hold. I’ve swung back and forth on multiple subjects and still don’t think I’ve got it exactly right. The only issues I’m fairly stable on are those of the damages humans have done to the planet and the inability for almost all humans to see what they’ve done and to think about altering their trajectory. And then I realise that humans are doing what every other species does, so it’s not really surprising. It’s very simple, really.

    Most of the issues that are brought up here are secondary issues, when put against all of that ecocide. But still they elicit strong emotions. This could be because, deep down, we are all in the grips of denial and think that somehow this civilisation (or modernity) can go on in some form, so those ephemeral issues are important to us, even as the life support systems of this planet crumble. I expect, though, that life will go on in some form. From a personal point of view, it seems it would be nice if my descendants were part of that life. But it doesn’t really matter. There is no ultimate purpose, we just are, a tree just is, a bacterium just is. All the life forms are doing their thing, essentially oblivious of the whole. Florian’s life of pleasure is just as reasonable as Rob’s refusal to use air travel. Neither will make any difference to how this all plays out.

    However, I am still human and the culmination of all of the experiences I’ve had, plus the culmination of all of the genes that have mutated and continued from my ancestors across the billions of years. So I still have opinions (hopefully, now, informed opinions) on all sorts of ephemeral issues. Some don’t agree with those opinions which used to be fine, here; it was a nice place to sound of without being insulted continuously, like many other discussion forums. However, when my thoughts get censored, I think I have probably come to the end of my stay here. If I can post opinions on some stuff but others get deleted, then I think I’m done here. It’s no longer the safe space it used to be. I will see what other forums might be appropriate and may post on my nascent blog from time to time but I’m sure I have enough to do in my life of pleasure to avoid getting frustrated here.

    If Rob wants to delete this, that’s fine (it’s his site). If there are any response, I may post brief replies to this thread but I won’t follow other threads now as I won’t be commenting on them. Of course, I always reserve the right to change my mind but I think it will be too frustrating to read stuff that I can’t comment on.

    Good luck to you all, it’s been a blast.

    Like

    Reply

    1. No reason to delete your comment because it does not defend our leaders for killing 3x the number killed in the holocaust by:

      • not prosecuting (or even shaming) illegal gain of function bioweapons research that caused the covid debacle
      • covering up lab leak evidence
      • fomenting unwarranted panic with PCR tests dialed to 11, empty freezer trucks, and fraudulent assignment of covid to cause of death
      • locking down society with zero supporting science
      • imposing rules like 6′ distancing with zero supporting science
      • not promoting effective prophylactics like vitamin D
      • blocking safe and effective treatments like Ivermectin
      • killing many with unsafe and ineffective treatments like ventilators, remdesivir, and midazolam
      • killing the vulnerable by moving sick people into elderly care homes
      • coercing billions to inject an inadequately and fraudulently tested novel mRNA transfection technology
      • coercing mRNA transfections into young people who had zero risk from the disease
      • ignoring 100 years of pandemic wisdom by mass vaccinating in the middle of a pandemic with a non-sterilizing vaccine and creating a possible variant proliferation disaster
      • for the initial variant, mRNA provided some benefit (only to the elderly and obese) in exchange for some harms, however shortly thereafter the virus mutated to eliminate the mRNA benefit while retaining the harms, yet our leaders continued to transfect everyone, including those not at risk, without modifying the mRNA to match the virus
      • fraudulently making mRNA appear to be safer than it is by classifying people as unvaccinated for several weeks after being transfected
      • requiring an unsafe mRNA injection method to reduce “vaccine hesitancy”
      • ignoring standard safety procedures and not retesting mRNA when the manufacturing process significantly changed
      • indemnifying vaccine manufacturers from liability for harms
      • permitting regulators to have financial conflicts of interest
      • preventing doctors from applying their training and judgement
      • preventing pharmacists from applying their training and judgement
      • providing financial incentives to hospitals to distort data to exaggerate covid risks and to minimize mRNA harms
      • awarding the Nobel prize for an mRNA invention that contradicts claims about mRNA safety
      • firing many employees for refusing mRNA despite never testing mRNA to confirm it stopped transmission, which it doesn’t
      • not disclosing ingredients or risks of mRNA to recipients
      • not investigating the implications of DNA contamination in mRNA
      • not applying GMO safety rules to mRNA
      • not informing people that injecting mRNA makes them a GMO
      • not analyzing and/or ignoring obvious safety signals hundreds of times higher than was sufficient to withdraw previous vaccines
      • not investigating the cause of increased clotting despite a theory that predicts clots should be expected from mRNA
      • not investigating the cause of increased myocarditis despite a theory that predicts myocarditis should be expected from mRNA
      • not investigating the cause of increased cancers despite a theory that predicts immune system damage should be expected from mRNA
      • not conducting autopsies to determine cause of death
      • not collecting and reporting obviously useful and potentially embarrassing data like vaxed vs. unvaxed all-cause mortality
      • never apologizing and correcting errors such as the firing of dissenting experts and whistle blowers who were later proven to be correct
      • censoring legitimate experts on Wikipedia and social media and destroying their careers
      • censoring journals from publishing peer reviewed dissenting science
      • learning nothing from mistakes and instead doubling down

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Dear Rob,

        I hope thou are feeling well.

        This list is vast and nuanced, whilst being both equally disturbing and concerning. Sheer disregard for any and all virtue.

        To note, this is separate to the of the response regarding Mr. Roberts.

        Kind and warm regards,

        ABC

        Like

        Reply

    2. Dear Mike,

      I hope thou are feeling well.

      I hereby express my utmost disdain towards censorship concerning Mike, likewise I am deeply saddened by his departure.
      I hope that this is not the end of his visitations.

      Dear Rob, I urge thou to consider these implications and to readjust thine approach.

      However, as implied by Thucydides; might makes right.
      We are at thine mercy in whatever may befall upon us.

      I put forward this notion not by any decree of justice, democracy or equality.
      The only remaining virtue is awareness, and our numbers are few in between amidst billions.

      I beseech ye as the guardian of this realm, to demonstrate immutable strength to those whom dare out of admiration to challenge and oppose thee in matters of dialogue.

      Kind and warm regards,

      ABC

      Like

      Reply

      1. I’m ok with just about any comment except any defense of our incompetent, unethical, and in some cases evil, leaders on covid issues.

        Our senior covid leaders need to go to prison for murder.

        I warned Mike twice. He’s welcome to comment on any other issue and has made many interesting contributions here.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Dear Rob,

          thanks for thine swift reply.

          I understand.

          Bring forth the noose, along with the bankers, warmongers and the whole lot of other spineless scoundrels.

          Kind and warm regards,

          ABC

          Like

          Reply

    3. Mike, why does that sound like your obituary? C’mon man, you are not going to find a better online community of like-minded people. (if you do, let me know 😊). You know damn well that this site is entertaining and helpful for your sanity. And to know that you are not alone. 

      Ya, your covid denial is annoying as hell. And it’s like Rob said a while back, if someone kept posting that we are not in overshoot or not running out of fossil energy, Rob would delete those comments too. But I totally understand your POV. If I had gotten any vaccines or boosters, I would have trouble accepting all of this scary info.

      I personally like that you fight back against MORT. Most of the time it ends up benefitting me because Rob or someone takes the time of trying to convince you or prove you wrong and those posts usually end up strengthening my understanding and belief of MORT. But sometimes I even start leaning over to your side of things. You have been a pain in the ass for Rob. I respect that. (probably because after you, I have been Robs second most pain in the ass 😊)

      I like to read the older comments (especially prior to when I found this site) and your name comes up a lot. You have been a valuable contributor. As far as your knowledge about our predicament, you definitely belong here. I would urge you to reconsider leaving. Just don’t read or comment about anything covid related. That’s not so much to ask, right? 

      Like

      Reply

    4. Hello Mike,

      Hope you and your family are going well there in the Land of the Long White Cloud. By now it must be getting a bit chilly at night and I trust all your extra efforts on the homestead this past summer and autumn have borne good fruit. Your example of a modern day, overshoot aware, multigenerational family living together on the land is to be admired and I know its evolving success has taken much hard work, understanding and compromise between all members.

      The same goes for anyone in a group having seemingly unreconcilable difference of opinions, as it occurs from time to time here. The fact we can come together as non-related persons from various backgrounds and thus differing filters of view, to engage on topics that raise so much vested intellectual and emotional interest, is a testament to the overall generosity of spirit and resilience of the participants. Although we may have partially transcended the denial gene, in every other respect we are individuals as a microcosm of the whole and naturally that will express in individualism and different ways to process sensory and emotional input. Despite or in spite of that, we here are spot on, or close to being on, the same page the vast majority of the time, on the vast majority of issues, no mean feat even for a rarefied group that has somehow self selected to arrive here together at Rob’s site. This is a community that should be cherished and upheld, above all by its own members for knowing what a refuge we create for one another. With this last community effort essay, it is even more clear we share something hard earned, and connection we have is that of kinship and family, all the more precious for being discovered and chosen.

      I join ABC and others in feeling more than a little unease and sorrow that you and Rob have felt adversarial in this recurring instance of maintaining your perspectives, which is your rightful freedom and I do honour and respect that. As in every other issue, each one of us holds our own responsibility in formulating our own opinion, you having yours has not detracted from my ability to have mine, if anything, a differing opinion can often help crystalise one’s own thoughts and should be taken as a learning opportunity rather than an overt challenge. Often our reaction to another’s opinion speaks more truth than the actual content, and it can happen that we get triggered to subconsciously project our emotions on the subject onto the other person, a completely human response we have all effected and experienced.

      Sometimes, a pattern of reaction and counter reaction arises from repeated conditioning, and things become stuck, the same argument over and over, the proverbial broken record. It is clear there are two sides, and necessarily so, for each stance defines the other. Can two or more views just be, for anothers’ interpretation is just that, it does not disallow us to have our own. Isn’t that how a family would “solve” a major difference of opinion, by just coming to accept that is so after hearing out both sides? Many of us manage to “agree to disagree” daily within our immediate families, not only to keep the peace but because it is a reconciliatory and fair outcome.

      I believe that it is possible to go forward here with that same outlook; here is an opportunity to show our quality to one another and most of all, to ourselves. What we desire most is not to be right but the opportunity to seek what is right for us, for one is a dead end (and may not even be truth) but the other path is without bounds and we are free to choose a new direction at every crossroad or even turn back altogether. As companions in this journey we are able to support each other through so many twists and turns (and even Seneca cliffs) and much more to come. I am grateful for this fellowship of past, present and emerging travellers who have found an oasis for mind and spirit at Rob’s space. Everyone’s contribution has been a witnessing of these days of portent and each is a true record, even if only written briefly in shifting sands. Longer may we be able to take rest and comfort together here, before making our own way to oblivion and peace.

      Namaste, friends.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. It’s possible that I have misread Mike’s deepest beliefs.

        I have spent 3+ years reading Mike’s covid opinions and I believe deep down he mostly supports what our leaders did. I think he is worried that side effects of mRNA may emerge, but has not yet seen anything alarming in the data.

        An alternate possibility is that Mike now believes our leaders are guilty of the same crimes I do, but keeps those views to himself because he’s worried about his famiy, and only comments on the validity of specific mRNA safety claims.

        If the latter reality is correct then I appologize and Mike is welcome to continue critiquing mRNA safety data here, provided he prefaces those comments with something like, “Just a reminder that I think our leaders are guility of serious covid crimes, however I don’t think this specific evidence is valid…”

        For anyone that has followed my path on covid awareness, you will know it took me a long time before I studied enough evidence to be confident in taking a hard line on what happened.

        I’m sorry for my intolerance on this issue but I think it’s the crime of our lifetimes, and the majority of citizens are letting our leaders get away it, which I find unacceptable.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Dear Rob,

          I hope thou are feeling well.

          I commend thee for thine introspection and courage, poignantly well stated.

          Kind and warm regards,

          ABC

          Like

          Reply

    5. Thanks for the comments, all.

      Chris, no, it’s not an obituary. I have no intention of shuffling off this mortal coil early. Yes, it’s been a good site but I can’t continue with one hand tied behind my back. I don’t fight against MORT but find an alternative explanation more likely. Not that it ultimately matters as the end result is the same.

      Gaia, I agree with your comment but it seems we cannot agree to disagree, here, as I have a set of restrictions that others don’t have.

      Rob, I don’t support anything our political leaders do. None of it. If they sometimes get things right (IMO, or IYO) that is purely accidental. I have vacillated on the subject most dear to you (both of the options you put forward of my stance are wrong) but that doesn’t seem to be your reading of my comments. I’m certainly not going to add a compulsory sentence to each comment on the subject but will continue to monitor related information and research (I await the end of July with interest, not concern).

      I avoid insults to people, like the plague. I try not to preach to others about what is right but only provide my opinion on subjects raised here. I’m sure all opinions are held strongly when posted here but that doesn’t make any of them right, including mine. Remember that whatever mechanism has caused humans to deny reality, that mechanism might be in place for each of us and we could all be wrong on all subjects.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Dear Mike,

        I hope thou are feeling well.

        Finely elaborated perspectives worth contemplating.

        I hope thine presence doesn’t fade away, be it either wholly or partially.

        Kind and warm regards,

        ABC

        Like

        Reply

      2. Thanks Mike. I hope you continue to participate here.

        To help you see the world from my perspective, when someone who has been silent on covid crimes argues, for example, that clotting may be an issue but is not as bad as Dr. Philip McMillan reports, what I actually hear, regardless of the intent, is the equivalent of someone arguing that the Nazis weren’t so bad because they only killed 3 million instead of the claimed 6 million.

        Like

        Reply

  17. If you enjoy learning about the collapse of complex societies, then check out this yt channel called Fall of Civilizations. He has around 20 podcasts, each one is 2-4 hours. They’re all good and you can watch them in any order. He’s a great storyteller and somehow gets you emotionally involved with each falling civilization. Spoiler alert: it’s always overshoot. 😊

    Been about a year since I was on this channel. I noticed he has a new one about Egypt. I’m hoping it gets me to rewatch them all. With much more energy knowledge under my belt, I’m sure they will be even better on the 2nd viewing. 

    Oh, and that’s another thing with me pre-overshoot. I used to look down on every culture in the past and wanted nothing to do with them. The farther back in time, the dumber they were. LOL. So funny how completely opposite it really is. And at a certain point on the EROEI scale (my bet is around 6.0), as that number increases… your ability to be mystical, deep & meaningful decreases. (or as B would say from his article this week “The more EROEI, the lower the usage of the right side of the brain”)

    Like

    Reply

  18. Just for the fun of it, and since food is a topic of interest for many doomers, I made a personal, non-exhaustive list of examples of alternative agriculture approaches (mostly) in France and (mostly) in French.

  19. Christian Tarpin, who led the conversion of Auroorchard (Auroville) to organic. It’s the only video in English (still with the characteristic French accent):
  20. Philip Forrer, no-till (à la Ruth Stout), electroculture, Hügelkultur:
  21. Yann Lopez, market gardening in the footsteps of Fukuoka:
  22. Syntropic kitchen garden by Anaëlle Thery:
  23. Fabrice Desjours’s forest garden:
  24. The natural orchard and kitchen garden of Patrick Le Chevoir:

    25. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6s9n9qCDt0

  25. Romain practices Yoshikazu Kawaguchi natural farming in Japan. In this video, he demonstrates direct seeding:
  26. Bonus: Not food, not pretending to be sustainable in any way, but pleasing to watch, flowers handmade in Paris (biodynamic agriculture):

    27. Liked by 3 people

    Reply

  27. Hideaway…

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-12-2024/#comment-776884

    We have a 5Kw solar system on our roof, it’s been there for 13 years now. If you look up the tables for our area we officially get an average of 4hrs/d of solar, however reality is different. We have averaged under 3 hrs/d over the life of the array up to now…

    In the last 16 days though, early winter near the shortest day, we have had a very cloudy period, 16 days where the total output is 72kwh for this entire period an average of 4.5Kwh/d from a 5kw system, with the last 4 days giving a total of 12Kwh or just 3Kwh/d!!. We only use around 23kwh/d without a heat pump operating (wood heating). If we used a heat pump to heat the house our power use would skyrocket. Nor do we charge an EV.

    Theoretical solar input for an ‘average’ 16 days at our location is 320kwh for our 5kw system, but of course the averages never take into account the variance from summer to winter. In summer we can get over 35Kwh in a day.

    If we had a 20kw system, with 50Kwh of battery storage, we would still have needed some type of backup power during periods like this. 20Kw in summer giving over 140Kwh/d would be mostly wasted power.

    Meanwhile for the whole state over this period, and there has been 7 days in a row with virtually no wind, we would have needed over 1,000,000Mwh of battery storage ($400B at today’s costs at best!!) to compensate for lack of both sun and wind. They have often been only 2% – 3% of grid power, and despite then being ‘capable’ of near 100% of power when the sun shines and wind blows, we’ve had a week where the combination of the 2 never exceeded 10% of total power. As I write this the state is also using 951Tj of gas, a lot for just heating, while there are several heavy chemical plants as well.

    Replacing that gas used for heating with electric heat pumps would require the battery storage to go up by a magnitude…

    Even if the capacity of solar and wind were tripled, it wouldn’t have made much difference.

    You guys can go on all you like about prices for solar, wind, batteries etc falling, but you don’t have a clue about the actual scale needed and the materials required on a world wide basis that’s promoted. We would have to destroy every remaining natural ecosystem, dig up nearly the entire planet in the process, use the last of the fossil fuels to build it all…. then what? Dig up under all the oceans, to build recycling facilities based on chemicals and heat processes we derive from the fossil fuels we no longer have??

    Totally destroying the last of the natural environment, sending CO2 levels to 700-800ppm, while jacking up every industrial process to build the ‘electrical’ world, all based on fossil fuel use, to buy modernity another 30 years, then what?? Hope for a miracle?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Hideaway : “We only use around 23 [kilowatt hours per day] …”

      I’m always perplexed by just how much electricity, natural gas, gasoline, etc. that other people use – and appear to (metaphorically) just shrug their shoulders at the expense.

      That “only” 23 above is more than double what we use. Typically we use 300ish kwh per month – so about 10 per day. This only varies (upward) during :

      • the coldest part of winter when the (natural gas) furnace gets used. The air blower motor is huge.
      • the hottest part of summer, when the whole-house air conditioning is used. The compressor/blower in the AC runs at the same time as the blower in the furnace – so a double kick to the nuts!

      The house is 1,500 sq ft and built in 2005. Walls are well insulated and built with 2×6 inch studs on 16 inch centers. Our typical electric bill is about $60 (U.S.) rising to $90 with judicious use of the AC for no more than 2 months a year (July and August) and that is only if there is a heat wave/dome with no respite between 3.30 AM and 6.30 AM (when AC works best).

      Since turning the natural gas heat off in February (because of rat damage to crawl space ducts) the bill has dropped to typically $23. That is the summer bill, when natural gas is only used for water heating.

      Like

      Reply

      1. That’s very impressive. I use on average about 20 kWh/day and I’m doing everything possible (without spending big money on better windows and heat pumps) to reduce usage.

        Like

        Reply

      2. Hi Hamish, you have to remember we are on a farm and a lot of the use is for small irrigation pumps and a coolroom in summer through Autumn. We also have electric hot water heating.

        We also use the airconditioner in the packing room.

        Not all farm use is in the 23KWh/d though as we do use tractors, and I have freezers, a pump and internet operating on an off grid system, that would increase overall power use.

        Also our house has it’s own water supply so the pressure pump is operating a lot. We’ve been drinking our own water collected of the colourbond roof into tanks for 40 years, untreated and unfiltered.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Thanks for the clarification. Yes a farm / factory / business ; is expected to use more than a single family residence. If I ever get an off-grid home, multiple water sources would be a requirement (rain collection, well, etc.) and I would expect increased electricity needed for pumps, pressurization and filtration.

          Like

          Reply

  28. Dr. Tom Murphy has released a video discussing his population trend analysis.

    I have not watched it yet.

    In this video, I explore factors that influence demographic projections, and how well (or not well) they have captured recent drops in fertility rates around the world (many factors contributing to the phenomenon). It does not seem implausible that population could peak before 2040 below 9 billion, even if standard projections put us over 10 billion around 2090. As a result, the second half of the 21st Century could be far different from the world to which we have become accustomed, in both positive and negative ways. More detail can be found at my Do the Math blog: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/tag/popula….

    Like

    Reply

  29. Alice Friedemann today…

    https://energyskeptic.com/2024/america-is-not-the-good-guy-anymore/

    This is a book review of Toft & Kushi’s 2023 Dying by the Sword: The Militarization of US Policy.  Oxford University Press.

    They make the case that America is not the good guy anymore, and hasn’t been for a long time, having undertaken nearly 400 military interventions since 1776, half since WWII. The book is full of lists of battles and more that really bring home the extent of U.S. interventions and wars. Now we are a nation to be feared, like Russia or China, especially with our turn towards authoritarian leaders and new $1.5 trillion dollar nuclear weapon upgrade program.  Rather than use diplomacy, we wage wars, and this has bloated the military budget beyond all reason and diverted resources away from health care, education, infrastructure, job creation, social welfare and more.

    Like

    Reply

  30. Putin’s peace conditions.

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1801566983797854302

    • Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from “L/DPR”, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia within the administrative borders.
    • As soon as the real withdrawal of troops begins and Kyiv refuses to join NATO, Moscow will order a ceasefire and the start of negotiations, Putin said.
    • According to him, Russia needs Ukraine’s neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-free status for a peaceful settlement.
    • “The status of Crimea, “L/DPR”, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as regions of the Russian Federation should be fixed in international treaties.”
    • All Western sanctions against Russia should be lifted.
    • “If Kyiv and the West refuse the new peace proposal, further conditions will be different,” he added.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Dear Rob & Dr. Alpert,

      I hope thou are both feeling well.

      Dr. Alpert,

      thine remarks are chilling.
      – Whilst I lament, I must concur.

      “He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.”
      – Nietzsche

      Kind and warm regards,

      ABC

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    1. I find it very hard to decide today between incompetence and malevolence.

      There’s so much incompetence in today’s leaders. 😦

      I used to respect Israelis for their inteligence. Until they volunteered their country to be an mRNA transfection test lab.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    2. Hi Monk,

      Thanks for posting this. I was incredulous from the get-go too. I’m surprised it took so long for an exposé like this to come out.

      Brent

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    1. Rob, I’m curious – did you extend an invitation to contribute to Canadian-Prepper, Sarah Conner, Nate Hagens, Sabine Hossenfelder, et al.

      Like

      Reply

  34. Motherf**kers need to burn.

    https://x.com/BretWeinstein/status/1801709575755993477

    The arrogance of this is incredible! That they were passaging ANY flu in ferrets to make it more infectious to humans is beyond reckless.

    This also raises serious questions about the true nature of the “Covid” pandemic given the strange mink-farm outbreaks attributed to Covid in 2020. At the time I argued those outbreaks pointed to serial passaging in ferrets—and they do—but it may well be that the experiments in question were done with influenza, not the lab-ancestor of SARS-CoV2.

    How much of what seemed to be SARS-CoV2 was really lab-enhanced flu?

    That’s a question @I_Am_JohnCullen has rightly been asking.

    Was Covid used as cover for another disease precisely because Covid directly implicated WIV rather than Fauci and his NIH/NIAID fiefdom?

    Unless they ALSO passaged SARS-CoV2 in ferrets, the mink farm outbreaks make a strong case that GOF enhanced flu was out and about in 2020.

    Click this link for a 1-minute video by Fauci explaining the research.

    https://x.com/weaponizedwheat/status/1801028910139982242

    They were playing with fire in 2011 when they used gain of function to give H5N1 the ability to do aerosol transmission in mammals.

    Like

    Reply

    2. Still thinking about our fallen member. I was wrong at the end of my portion of the guest essay. The whole Mike saga is by far the most MORT thing on this website. No idea, but my guess is that the amount of un-Denial audience is a couple hundred people. And of that, I’m sure its easily 90% would agree at this point that the entire covid ordeal is very sinister. 

      Dont know why Mike can’t see what the rest of see. Well, actually I do know why (mort), but still, he was pretty high up on the pecking order of this site, IMHO. If you remove the covid topic, I’d say he was consistently in the top 5. And I know he’s not alone with making the mistake of getting the shot. But he is alone with not being able to see what is as obvious as overshoot at this point. It’s the perfect case study for MORT.

      p.s. I dont want it to have any superior connotation that I did not get the jab. I got lucky, that’s all it was. I went back and forth on it for a while. Lots of time spent on bad research. Close to making an appt several times. Because of my Zinn & Chomsky background, I ended up sticking with my simplistic gut feeling (govt lies about everything). 

      And yes, so disappointing that Noam said what he said about non vaxxers. Definitely fu#ked me up for a minute. Man, that timeframe was such a scary chaotic mess. Frantically trying to research people’s decision on the matter. They had me on the ropes. But ya, I ended up chalking up Chomsky’s horrible opinion to old age. And eventually I became more confident about my decision. I guessed correctly. Might as well have been a coin flip.

      Like

      Reply

      1. I (we) didn’t get the shot because, in addition to the undesirable qualities enumerated above, I’m also profoundly cynical and occasionally sarcastic – the more ‘they’ pushed the shots, the more I scoffed (expressed derision or scorn).

        For example, driving home from the store, wife states “look at all those people driving new cars” – I reply “they may be sitting in a new car, but what they have is a new car payment, and new car insurance rates, and a car that tracks them and sends data to the manufacturer. And don’t get me started on the off-gassing and depreciation …”

        News headline next day: Wife throws herself from speeding car!

        Its the humour that allows me to cope.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

      2. I vaguely remember being deeply disappointed when a hero, Dr. Bill Rees, disclosed his disdain for anti-vaxxers.

        Also disappointed that Nate Hagens has not once publicly disclosed his views on covid.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Bummer about Rees. I read/watch enough of him that I have to have seen this topic come up before. The fact that I don’t recall it, tells me I probably suppress it for the people I like. 

          So true that no individual has a perfect record on all of the crazy issues we have to navigate. That’s why I love this site. Un-Denial is the closest thing to a perfect record that I have been able to find so far. 

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

        2. Dear Rob,

          I hope thou are feeling well.

          It is a shame, however if we suppose that not even Professor Rees is immune to the hazardous effects of cultural conditioning and derogatory connotations.

          Perhaps a message with scientific information regarding the matter might offer our beloved and cherished master a varying perspective?

          Kind and warm regards,

          ABC

          Like

          Reply

          1. LOL. Not likely.

            None of my ex-friends and ex-family could see mRNA reality regardles of the evidence I presented, and regardless that they had no evidence supporting their own pro-mRNA beliefs.

            Like

            Reply

            1. And here in the U.S. it is still a tribe thing. Although Trump was president most of his tribe are anti government anti vax while it is still a tenant of Blue states that government was right, Pharma and Medical “science” saved us. I live in the “liberal” PNW and many old people still run around with masks on (kinda marks them as idiots and big into Denial).

              AJ

              Like

              Reply

                1. Dear Rob,

                  I hope thou are feeling well.

                  This is likely beyond abstract and therefore a self-defeating statement, I beg for forgiveness as it is not my intention to appear vain or spiteful.

                  In theory all matters are scientific, therefore all matters ought to be thought of as so.
                  – That however is the difficult part, what is wholesome and correct depends on the parameters utilised, with the added need to have it become part of the collective.

                  Wandering without a tribe, is indeed a most dangerous endeavour.

                  Kind and warm regards,

                  ABC

                  Like

                  Reply

                2. Dear Rob,

                  to add to my previous statement.
                  – 99.99% of Homo Sapiens are as thy said “clueless”, or worse posses the unfortunate quality of denial.

                  “The man who does not wish to be one of the mass only needs to cease to be easy on himself.”
                  – Nietzsche

                  And as placated here, what emperor Aurelius stated about purposefully avoiding in being cast among the ranks of the insane.

                  Kind and warm regards,

                  ABC

                  Like

                  Reply

    1. I downloaded this documentary. Reviews are mixed. I’ll probably just skim it.

      I’ll bet the producers are not overshoot aware which means they probably misinterpreted any evidence they discovered.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  36. Lots of reports about Joe Biden doing increasingly senile things like wandering off in the middle of an official ceremony.

    Kunstler made an interesting point today that regardless of how bad they want it to happen, it is impossible for Biden to debate Trump on June 27 as planned.

    That means something big needs to happen within the next 13 days.

    Like

    Reply

    1. LOL, what a shitshow the debate would be though.

      Don’t waste your time with the link below. I only included it because it got me thinking. After Trump came out of nowhere in 2015, I really thought that celebrities would be the new trend for politics. I expected to soon see Kanye West, George Clooney and Kim Kardashian types in the senate, congress, and president. Has not happened yet.  

      Now of course Trump did not come out of nowhere. This quote (regarding black waves of success) from the netflix documentary “Stamped from the Beginning”, explains exactly where Trump came from: “Every time there’s a huge fan out, push forward, go…there’s a tidal wave back.” 

      The Tea Party and Trump was the obvious tidal wave from a white country having its first black president. It doesn’t matter that the black president sucked and was just as evil as Bush junior. Like Noam Chomsky says, “the masses are correct to be angry, but it’s always misplaced anger”. 

      Looking at these A-listers supporting Biden makes me ill. I guarantee if we interviewed them all, they would turn out to be as clueless as me back when I watched Rachel Maddow and Lawrence O’Donnell religiously. The Sean Penn’s of the world have no idea how much damage they end up creating. 

      My first introduction to Chomsky was the book Manufacturing Consent. I don’t remember much from it anymore. But I do remember how it blew my mind away when it talked about how celebrities are always a negative thing for society and all that. Was probably around 2006 when I was knee deep with my worship of favorite movie stars, musicians, and athletes. Sounds ridiculous now, but back then I had much trouble understanding and accepting what Noam was talking about.

      Hollywood’s A-listers are lining up behind Joe Biden. Will their support matter in November? (yahoo.com)

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. Sorry but I just read it again and I have to correct my wording. Sounds like I hate Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden because it’s their fault for anything. It’s the system and it doesn’t matter which clown gets voted in. My hatred for the ultra-rich makes me blame the individual side way too much.

        Like

        Reply

        1. I still watch MSNBC occasionally. They are mostly covering Trump scandals. Of course they don’t talk about overshoot. I also noticed that MSNBC is not covering the ongoing genocide in Gaza. I wonder if one of the higher-ups said that the topic of Gaza is off limits.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

          1. 100% they have been told to scale it back on Gaza. Most of everything you see on MSNBC is carefully orchestrated like that. This was always a tricky part of the “system” for me to understand though. I’d picture a Darth Vader type character roaming the halls of a mainstream news agency warning everyone, “don’t print that story… or else!”.

            Just didn’t jive. But when I was in my full-on political mode during the Obama years, I started to understand the subtlety of it all. Some asshole like Karl Rove or Rush Limbaugh would say something one day and within a couple weeks news stations, politicians, and other “experts” would be parroting what was said as if it was an original thought made up on the spot. 

            No Darth Vader required. It seems more like correspondence that trickles down the ranks instructing them to start moving in this direction or stop going in that direction. And it’s probably a mix of well thought out propaganda/manipulation techniques from the top, as well as those same top elites just seeing a Sean Hannity or Rachel Maddow type say something unscripted and then deciding “yes, lets start pushing what he/she said”.

            Sometimes it’s obvious as hell though. The first couple days of the George Floyd riots were gold (if you enjoy watching chaos as much as me). I was tuned in all day and night. Every news channel (red or blue affiliations, it didn’t matter) was dedicated to covering it and the riots owned the airwaves. Their ratings were going through the roof.  But around day 4, the coverage didn’t just slow down, it was nonexistent. I was bummed because I thought it was over and I had no more entertainment. Then I found yt & fb live streams from the actual protesters themselves and I was able to continue watching the riots for months.

            Its rare for “them” to intentionally shut down a cash bonanza (the high ratings), but the coverage was getting more younger people off the couch and into the streets every single day. The elites obviously cannot be having any of that nonsense. You know something is of the utmost importance when “they” are willing to sacrifice money.

            Like

            Reply

      1. Yes, that’s AJ’s concern too.

        I think no one is perfect and the US will never be offered a better candidate.

        Maybe it’s impossible to be elected in the US without god and Israel and he knows it.

        Maybe he knows Israel is committing suicide and the problem will go away.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

  37. I watched the entirety of this video expecting the usual ‘positiveness’ from a lecture at Imperial College, instead the speaker demolished all thinking about the hydrogen economy. I found some information I didn’t know and as per usual the situation is worse than I thought previously.

    The really interesting part is that they still think renewables will save us and are the future, despite demolishing an important aspect of that renewable future. The denial gene in full action here. So how in their thinking (there is a panel at the end), will the UK go energy wise in the future when the wind isn’t blowing in winter?? You have to be quick to hear the answer, they will just import power from Europe… LOL, clueless, Europe will not have any excess power at that time, due to the same low wind conditions as in the UK!!

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  38. Hideaway…

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-12-2024/#comment-776913

    Dennis: Maybe use the grid to move energy from one part of the nation to the other. Has the entire nation had no wind and cloudy weather for 16 days? A proper analysis looks at the entire system, not just a tiny corner of the World.

    Dennis, glad you suggested that.

    We do have a large grid, the AEMO grid is one of the largest in the world, spreading from Northern Queensland to Tasmania in the South.

    While the wholesale price of electricity was high in Victoria, it was negative in Queensland, during the day, as the winter is the ‘sunny’ time up there and temperatures are mild so no need for air conditioners.

    Here’s the problem, that applies everywhere in the world. Even though it’s one large grid, the ability to get electricity from a couple of thousand kilometers away is very limited. It would take new dedicated HVDC transmission lines capable of sending down 10-12GW of power, a few times a year.

    It would be an enormous expense and vast use of resources for only limited use, possibly 10% of the year at best. It also doesn’t address night time use, unless the huge build out of extra solar, in excess of what Queensland needs, plus a few TWh of batteries for night time sending the electricity down South and for use in Queensland.

    What you end up with is a huge excess of build out in both the North and the South of the country with huge battery banks at each end. Queensland with an excess of power in the winter, sending it South, while providing ofr themselves as well, while in Victoria an oversized system so that excess power could be sent North in summer at when we have excess power during the day most of the time.

    You can’t have the massive battery systems at just one end either, unless the transmission lines were also massively oversized.

    I did a rough calculation on the copper needed for the giant HVDC cables used for an underground system of 8.8GW over 3,000km. They use a copper core centre of 200mm2 inside the alumina outer layers. Even ‘only’ 8.8GW would use 430,000 tonnes of copper and cost a total of around $A58B to build (excluding any land cost!!)

    My whole argument is that this is all needed to keep modernity going and is a massive increase in material use, from the transmission lines, to the batteries and all the solar and wind needed to be built, compared to what we built the system with. Plus there is no additional electricity either, to run the EVs and heat pumps and everything else electrical.

    All the actual plans only consider the ‘average’ amount of electricity production needed from solar and wind, and never the variance from summer to winter, unless it’s the hand wave, that you have done about building a bit of extra transmission. When ever the whole picture of what’s needed is taken into account, it’s massively more complicated than the hand wave, and massively more material intensive.

    The Australian consumers simply can’t afford the type of system necessary, so it has to fail. already they are changing the way customers are billed, always costing more with some new types of charges being introduced into the system. This on top of back to back 25-30% price increases over the last 2 years, plus starting on July 1, some home owners are being charged to send their solar power into the grid during peak sum hours. (after being given subsidies by the govt to install solar panels in the past!!)

    In regard to the materials we use for this buildout, we gain access to it all by using fossil fuels in every stage of the mining, processing, manufacturing, transportation and deployment of it all, a lot of it oil, that we simply don’t have, to do the job!! This is all before considering all the environmental damage of the extra fossil fuel burning and the extra natural systems ripped to pieces to mine the materials.

    You always have the hand wave solution, when the reality is it can’t be done on a scale involving the billions of humans we have on the planet without destroying the natural world. Yet such is the desire to hold onto modernity and all the benefits to individuals that enjoy it, that we can happily deny the bad future that is guaranteed to befall us by making up nice fairytales that sun and wind are unlimited, without considering we only gain the benefit from machines we have to build and replace…

    Like

    Reply

  39. Hideaway…

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-12-2024/#comment-776943

    Hickory … ” Of those, almost all have abundant renewable energy resources….resources that have barely been tapped thus far.”

    This is the classic mistake most people make. It doesn’t matter how big the resources of wind and sunshine are, we can only collect that energy with machines we’ve built. It takes huge quantities of energy, almost all fossil fuel energy, to mine, concentrate, process, transport, smelt, manufacture, transport again, then deploy the machines to collect the wind and solar energy.

    It’s all fine while we have a growing supply of fossil fuels to perform all these processes, but we are already needing a rapidly increasing quantity of this fossil energy to counter the lowering grades, deeper, more remote harder ores, because we mined all the easy to get stuff first.

    We had one minor hiccup in gaining fossil fuels in 2022, which sent the price up. It also sent up the price of solar, wind, and batteries during this period, because of the intensity of fossil fuel use in the above processes.

    Relative to what price will do, when we get permanent reductions of oil output at an accelerating rate as measured in millions of barrels per day/per year, the 2022 ‘blip’ will look like nothing. All the costs of every process from mining onwards will go through the roof.

    We have to remember that it is oil that made most of the coal and gas we use today available and without oil the production of both these fossil fuels will also rapidly fall.

    Every current use of oil will be competing for the lower quantity available when we get the great deceleration in availability at an accelerating rate.

    The path humanity has chosen is to build more stuff, requiring more fossil fuels to do it, as can be clearly see with the increases in energy consumption and population since we became fully aware of climate change/damage in around 1990.

    Since 1994, well after we became fully aware, world population has gone up by around 45%, while energy use has increased by around 55% of which fossil fuel makes up about 88% of that increase!!

    In that 30 year period we have massively ramped up fossil fuel use and population, added a bit of non fossil fuel energy to the mix, of which hydropower is about a quarter.

    In the last 30 years we have added huge quantities of both population and energy use to the system, while solar and wind make up around 7% of the increase in energy use. We had to build the mines, processing plants and factories before a single solar panel could be made, likewise for wind turbines. We had to increase the capacity of cement production before we could add a single foundation for a wind turbine, yet these necessary increases are hidden in general ‘growth’ numbers.

    It’s modern civilizations ‘growth’ that has led to the climate problems, the loss of ecosphere, the 70% reduction in non human and domestic animals, mammal loss, the 70% reduction of insects and the 70% loss of non domestic fowl birdlife in the last 54 years, let alone the damage to oceans and life in the oceans.

    Solar and wind are a rounding error in the increase of energy used to get us to 2024, where the background energy use of the entire system just to maintain it has increased in those 30 years, before we consider ‘growth’. Any increase in any major component to a meaningful level would take further growth in fossil fuel use to make happen, it’s that simple.

    In those 30 years of adding solar and wind to the system, we have not replaced the methods of mining, processing, transport and manufacturing them to intermittent electricity they provide, nor even tried to do so, yet all the solar and wind built 25-30 years ago has either been replaced or needs replacing, likewise in 25-30 years time for those machines built today. They all suffer from entropy, especially quickly, because they are fully exposed to the elements!! Sure we add a bit of solar and wind here and there to look like we are replacing fossil fuels, but any mine like the one linked to by Islandboy still has enough fossil fueled generation capacity to run the electricity side of the operation.

    When oil production falls year over year, at some point in the future, no matter how much money is thrown at it, growth will also end, production of everything, from oil and gas pipes to solar panels to bulldozers will start to fall, there just wont be the energy to keep production of everything going.

    We can keep believing that sun and wind are unlimited and free, or try to degrow before we fossil fuels leave us. We have chosen to believe we have no fossil fuel spend to get the ‘free’ sun and wind energy, while the materials to harness this energy just magics into existence…

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. We’re pissing away increasingly scarce energy resources on ratholes like AI and crypto. Gentlemen (and women), start your vegetable gardens…

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  42. The IEA is predicting a 6 mb/d surplus of oil by 2030 due to EVs and renewable energy.

    This is 70 times higher than the OPEC and US EIA forecasts.

    Art Berman calls bullshit.

    I say the IEA could be right if the Europeans provoke Russia into nuking them and the US stays out to avoid mutually assured destruction.

    https://www.artberman.com/blog/ieas-staggering-oil-glut-is-staggeringly-unlikely/

    IEA’s Oil 2024 report, in my view, lacks objectivity and borders on being propaganda for the energy transition. It is a fundamentally dishonest document that strays from the agency’s core responsibility of presenting unbiased information, and I’m calling that out.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

      1. Man, I tried reading that article and made it about 25% of the way. Then realized my brain was not equipped to understand one word of it.

        Found this quote in the comments regarding virus stuff like RaTG13. “As I understand it, while the first change is unlikely, the second is extremly unlikely. Both of them together, are nearly immposible.”

        Not interested in what it means. Just thought it was funny because it sounds like someone trying to define eToM and MORT. 😊

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  44. Interesting theory if you’re still interested in the why of the covid crimes.

    https://x.com/DanielHadas2/status/1801934387296026877

    It’s entirely clear by now that, in early 2020, Anthony Fauci, Jeremy Farrar and others at the top of the “global health” food chain knew, either directly or through very solid inference, that Covid had emerged from a lab, through experiments of the sort they were funding.

    From this, we can conclude with certainty that one reason this group so aggressively backed Covid lockdowns was because they held this knowledge.

    The exact motivational link between the knowledge and the decision is harder to know …

    But it makes sense that men who felt they had let Covid loose on the world under the aegis of “global health” should see minimizing the specific damage of Covid as the top priority for “global health”.

    After all, if I bore substantial responsibility for the inadvertent unleashing of a novel virus on mankind, I might well become obsessed with minimizing the effects of that virus, and grown blind to the cost of such efforts at minimization.

    Of course, this obsession is characteristic of exactly the same Promethean hubris that led the “global health” enterprise to meddle as it did with virus collection and manipulation in the first place.

    “Vaccinees … biosecurity … biosurveillance … genetic medicine”—these were the watchwords both of the experimental virology Farrar et al. were funding and of the response they endorsed when one of these experiments went wrong.

    That these global health sorcerers are now paying so low a price for this double hubris is indicative of how reluctant the world remains to turn away from their sorcery’s promised victory over illness and death.

    “I don’t it’s quite fair to condemn a whole program because of a single slip-up”.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Oh yes, “lab made”, “novel” virus! So scary…

      If only Bojo knew that while playing quizzes… oh wait…

      Like

      Reply

  45. In case you missed it, Putin gave a very important speech yesterday that western media is not covering.

    He outlined in detail Russia’s acceptable terms for peace in Ukraine. It’s basically the same terms that Ukraine agreed to at the start of the invasion, before Boris Johnson scuttled the deal, which is no NATO, no nuclear weapons, and no Nazis, except Ukraine will now lose the land that Russia occupies.

    Putin also said if these terms are rejected then the next terms offered will be an unconditional surrender by Ukraine.

    Within about 10 minutes, without countering with different terms, western leaders rejected Russia’s offer.

    I don’t see any de-escalation path here.

    Here is the speech:

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74285

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    2. In the headlines this morning my prime minister Trudeau accused Russia of genocide for kidnapping Ukrainian children.

      I believe this charge was debunked a long time ago.

      Not a comment from someone seeking peace.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  46. Hideaway…

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-12-2024/#comment-776988

    Saving 30% of the earth for non humans is just going to guarantee a lot more extinctions as the climate rapidly changes.

    Look at the natural world, when the climate changed slowly over time. Species would move further north or South depending on if the climate was warming or cooling with freedom, except for predators or being out competed and change due to evolution over time.

    With the rapid climate change we’ve induced upon the planet, most species can’t move nor adapt fast enough, plus we have set aside forest or national parks, with many kilometers of farmland, fences and roads inbetween, restricting movement of the natural world.

    We have basically told the natural world to stay in place and adapt to the new climate that we humans have changed, yet we seem to be shocked when species after species go extinct.

    There is nothing sustainable about ‘leaving’ 305 for nature, it needs to be 80%-90% to be sustainable. That’s how far into overshoot we really are, considering 30% a worthy goal…

    Like

    Reply

    1. IMHO amount of land left for nature ideally would be at a minimum 75%. That necessarily implies that the human population would be significantly smaller.

      Like

      Reply

      1. true – and what do we mean by “left for nature”? That implies that we stop using land for farming, which would result in starvation. Why isn’t it ever “demolish 75% of the built environment to return it to nature”?…

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

        1. Why isn’t it ever “demolish 75% of the built environment to return it to nature”?…

          Only ~3% of Earth’s land is urban.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Yes, but the urban areas are the most fertile. Flat lands surrounding bays and river plains. There needs to be environment in these areas for endemic species that only live there. It also where more of the species are, where more of the diversity is. If we are talking about leaving 75% of the land, then we’ve already got that technically.

            Like

            Reply

              1. Exactly – so that’s what I mean by my orignal comment. What do they mean ‘leave 75% for nature’ because it sounds like getting rid of the way we feed all the humans

                Like

                Reply

                1. That is why population reduction is necessary. Not all agricultural land needs to be returned to nature, but a significant portion of it does. Some of that will actually be returned to nature involuntarily, because it will no longer be suitable for agriculture, for various reasons (e.g. climate change).

                  Liked by 1 person

                  Reply

  47. Hideaway…

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-12-2024/#comment-776959

    Hickory: Here is where you have it all incorrect…
    ” Each unit of fossil energy input results in many units of net non-fossil energy output.”

    Can you show or prove this? no-one else can…

    All the EROEI type calculations and reports that get published showing a nice bright green future, always have ‘boundaries’ they set when counting energy inputs.

    This is because it’s so hard to include all energy especially the embedded energy in the background system of civilization that building everything used.

    Whether it’s bridges, roads, ports, or people with expertise or trucks, ships and trains to transport, it all suffers from entropy and has to be replaced using energy to do so. I’ve not found a single report that counts any of it in their EROEI calculations.

    It’s assumed it all exists, so we don’t count it, this includes the EROEI calculations for new coal, new gas and new oil as well. We built the system with the really cheap energy, over the last 200 years, using high grade ores of everything to do it.

    All the EROEI studies omit the replacement of all the built infrastructure and educated human environment, as if they were separate from building ‘energy producers’.

    If we tell ourselves fairytales about how good the energy returns are, by leaving out most of the energy inputs, of course the picture looks ‘rosy’.

    As the EROEI of fossil fuels continues to fall, modern civilization is not maintainable anyway, which is precisely why we have increasing inequality in the western world and much higher debt levels. Modern civilization is a ponzi scheme based on energy. We all know what happens when a ponzi scheme based on money fails, because new money doesn’t come into the system.

    It’s the same for modern civilization when energy stops growing, only taking longer until the real collapse sets in.

    You and everyone else can go on ‘believing’ that rebuildables will save us, but it’s only a belief, not the reality of the situation…

    Here is something ‘out there’ to consider. If renewables did have an EROEI of say 20:1, then why wouldn’t some business buy $1B worth of renewables and make $1B worth of renewables each year over the life of the first ones, a perpetual motion machine guaranteeing riches forever. Then they could take the first year’s production of energy and make $2B ‘worth’ of renewables in the second year, $4B in the third year, By the 4th year you now have $4B to make another $4B of renewables, so $8B ‘worth’ of renewables.

    It’s a money making machine, if the total EROEI really was 20:1, or even 10:1, for that matter even if it was 2:1 it’s a perpetual motion machine capable of providing free energy until we ran out of space to put up solar panels or wind turbines.

    All renewables, nuclear geothermal or whatever, are all just derivatives of fossil fuels. We are using up fossil fuels faster in an attempt to fool ourselves and the masses that believe in the fairytale of a bright green future.

    What would you think was the best course of action for humanity, knowing that fossil fuels are leaving us, if you thought the perpetual motion machine of renewables was not possible??

    My take is power down as much as possible, reduce population rapidly, by birth control and allowing the chronically in pain to end their lives with dignity and pain free when they decided to. Stop wasting resources on fairytales, maybe even a compulsory world wide 5%-10% reduction in fossil fuel use every year, plus a rewilding of as much farmland as possible, with a minimum 2%-5% every year. Of course it would take a one world government to implement, with harsh penalties for those not conforming, plus a total redistribution of wealth and people, much more crowded housing, compulsorily wherever necessary, etc, etc, which is totally not going to happen…

    In other words there is no way out, our modern civilization will collapse, because people will chose to believe the fairytale before accepting reality, and reality will hit with collapse before people will accept radical change, but by then it’s way too late. Similar to just about every civilization before ours that also collapsed.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  48. RFK Jr. today on GOF.

    https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1802448989343850943

    As if you didn’t already know, the NIAID (Fauci’s old agency) is out of control.

    Not only did it lie to Congress repeatedly about COVID and its gain-of-function research in Wuhan.

    It turns out that NIAID also funded gain-of-function research to make the monkeypox virus (now mpox) more deadly and transmissible. Then they concealed this from 2 Congressional committees looking into the research, obstructing their investigation.

    Haven’t we had enough of this dangerous research to produce more deadly viruses?

    My administration will get to the bottom of it — and end it for good.

    https://usrtk.org/risky-research/fauci-institute-hid-mpox-gain-of-function-plans/

    Like

    Reply

  49. Someone I trust on security and privacy issues advised me the best browser today is Brave.

    Out of the box it’s pretty good but they leave some options turned on to be good corporate citizens for those dependent on ads to survive. If you go into the options you can easily turn everything off.

    I will be switching to Brave.

    https://brave.com/

    Like

    Reply

      1. Thank you Rob and your contact for that juicy info! I also switched to Brave and for the first time I have watched a YouTube ad free, wow! I am not computer savvy at all and can’t understand a kilobyte of what you cool engineering folks talk about when you do discuss all things CPU so this has been a revelation! At least for the remainder time we have when the internet is still functioning. It’s a Brave new world, that’s for sure! Maybe that’s why they named it so? Thank you again.

        Hope everything is going well as can be. I share your feeling of something is going to happen at any point now that will finally really change the world as we in the Western worlds have known it for so long. Every day and minute is a countdown or count up, it all doesn’t matter really as our friend Charles would gently remind us. I meant to comment on your wonderful garden effort when you last posted update photos, what a great experience you’ve had this season. Also your coastal home is magic and I am so pleased you are graced by the setting sun to round out your fulfilling days. We haven’t heard of an impending short absence from you as of yet for a camping or hiking trip, any plans?

        Namaste.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Yes, my spider senses are tingling telling me something unexpected is going to happen soon.

          I will probably be gone camping 2nd week of July and again first 2 weeks of August.

          Glad you like Brave. Just to be sure you kill all the ads, you should also install the extension “uBlock Origin”. It’s easy to use, no configuration required, just go to Settings / Extensions / Get More Extensions and search for “uBlock Origin”.

          P.S. I’m told YouTube may get more aggressive soon and imbed ads in the video streams which may make it impossible to block them, so enjoy while it lasts.

          Like

          Reply

          1. The way around this is to download the video with clipgrab or something similar so that you can fast forward when you want not when you tube takes control of the flow as it were. This is where an AI app would be great. don’t let you tube give me any ads and it would filter them out on the fly for you. Even get it to remove product placement, that would be great.

            Like

            Reply

  50. Hideaway continues to prove the power of denial.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-12-2024/#comment-776991

    Hickory, do you ever fully read those type of reports or the references they refer to??

    Spread throughout are such statements as these, all quoted from the reports…

    “diesel, burned in building machine, average”
    “heavy fuel oil, burned in industrial furnace 1MW, non-modulating”
    “natural gas, burned in industrial furnace >100kW”

    Right throughout these type of reports, they always ‘reference’ other reports for stat’s they use. As you follow the chain of references to get to original source of actual information, it ALWAYS comes back to the energy used in the processes, as per the quotes above when you dig deep enough.

    With the utility PV they cover down to the gravel used in the concrete and roads for the energy usage, which makes the report look comprehensive..

    However reading the details, you find ‘X’ tonnes of gravel required the lorry to use ‘Y’ gallons of diesel to transport the gravel to site. (That’s the diesel mentioned above to the ‘machine’ being the PV site set up, with all the diesel used by different equipment).

    How much energy is apportioned to the truck? ZERO. How much is apportioned to the excavator at the gravel pit ZERO (just the diesel used). How much is apportioned to the drivers of the excavator and lorries? ZERO. How much energy is attributed to the building of roads and bridges from the gravel pit to PV site? ZERO.

    It’s the same rubbish as everywhere else, leaving out huge gobs of energy because they are too hard to account for. The trucks, excavators, roads and bridges, plus the drivers, workers have long lives so we attribute ZERO energy use…

    How do you think that report gets a lower carbon footprint for the making of PV panels in the USA compared to importing from high carbon intensity countries?
    Easy, by attributing ZERO energy use, and therefore CO2 ‘spend’ on all the workers involved. Yet the imported panels are so much cheaper than the USA made panels (which is why the govt has put tariffs on them!!).

    Every single research document you can find on EROEI has the same exclusions, all the too hard to measure stuff is excluded, they set boundaries, so it all gives a false image of the energy used.

    We need the entire background system operating normally so that the roads are maintained, the new factories are built when required, the trucks, excavators, milling machines are obtainable when needed. The workers have to be educated, well fed, have transport to the mines, factories, sites of PV building. There needs to be young workers educated at schools, for when the older ones retire. None of it operates or gets built without the accountants and lawyers doing the numbers in the background with contracts, nor the managements putting it all together.

    Every single aspect requires energy to perform, yet we don’t want to count any of it, as it would show that solar, wind, nuclear, geothermal or whatever machine made energy source are not viable energy sources, which would prove to people there is no sustainable future possible for modern civilization.

    We know that using coal, oil and gas, plus high grade ores, worked to build the current modern civilization, for a small proportion of the overall world’s population. No-one has actually shown that we could maintain it with lower EROEI fossil fuels and lower ore grades either!! (My calculations say no it can’t be maintained!!)

    It’s your preference to believe whatever you want to. It doesn’t have to be reality. however don’t rely on the papers you, Dennis, Islandboy, Alimbiquated and others keep pointing to as the definitive answer as they clearly are not, by leaving out huge aspects of energy inputs in their calculations.

    You need to ask yourself why these type reports leave out so much energy use, with these ‘boundaries’ of only energy in the processes, and no energy component for all the workers and capital equipment used in every stage from geologists looking for resources right through to the accountants and lawyers involved in finance and contracts.

    It’s all energy consumption, while leaving out huge amounts gives the entire system a false accounting of the output relative to the input.

    We only have one way of accounting for all these background energy inputs and that is the dollar cost in today’s dollars. It’s certainly not perfect, but leaving out most of the dollar and energy cost, the way the papers referred to work out these numbers, is just false accounting. What it needs to be compared to is not cost of NEW coal, gas, oil, but to the costs of what we built the system with, to see if it’s possible to replace the present system as parts age.

    It clearly isn’t possible, as ‘NEW’, solar, wind and batteries cost way in excess of what a ‘new’ coal fired plant built in the old very dirty, polluting style, sitting right next to the coal pit; costs to bring electricity to modern civilization. As the Adaro situation in Indonesia clearly shows, new coal plants are a fraction of the cost of building solar wind and batteries (or pumped hydro).

    We clearly don’t have the coal resources to build everywhere with cheap dirty coal, nor can the environment stand any more, but kidding ourselves about the energy return of solar, wind and batteries, just sets us up for massive failure and collapse when the fossil fuels availability start to decline with a vengeance with solar, wind and batteries not making up the energy deficit, with the sudden ‘product’s shortage (fertilizers, plastics, explosives, acids, chemicals, coke etc) all biting at the same time.

    Did you know it takes 400kg of petcoke to make 1 tonne of Alumina, even in the geothermal plants of Iceland??

    Because we’ve been kidding ourselves for decades about powering the future, we have effectively just backed ourselves into a corner of ‘near future’ collapse, in regards to modern civilization.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Whenever I go and read any of the EROEI reports they link to on POB, then go into the references, and often in to the references of references, I get even further depressed by the level of denial in the world. Surely all the people that have doctorates in this stuff and the professors whose name is also often attached to these papers, know they are leaving huge chunks of energy out of the calculations.

      When it comes to the diesel used by the trucks going from A to B to transport anything, surely they can’t be blind to the fact that they didn’t count the truck itself, nor the driver, nor the roads and bridges they went over.

      The answer of course is it’s outside the ‘boundary’ of the study. They would of course know they are leaving out huge globs of energy, but just assume the system keeps ticking along in the background like it always has.

      The studies are not about the continuation of modernity, in anything other than CO2 atmospheric terms, they are about providing a set of conditions to show renewables better than coal and gas for electricity, so assume the background is ‘constant’, add CCUS to fossil fuels, then reduce capacity factor, assume all coal and gas is purchased at a high price and bingo they proved what they set out to prove.

      Of course as every report is trying to prove the same thing, they just keep referencing each other over time, to build a huge body of knowledge that is effectively nonsense about the continuation of modernity.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      1. It’s quite remarkable when you see it.

        Presenting logic and data has no effect on beliefs in people with deep science training.

        If it’s not MORT, it’s a powerful force that selectively and narrowly overrides intelligence in the majority of people.

        Perhaps the entire healthcare profession really does believe the mRNA lies?

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

    2. Hideaway…

      Hickory, it occurred to me today as I was reading through that link on EROEI, that all the work done in this field by thousands of such reports, are all trying to show renewables in a good light against fossil fuel sources of electricity.

      None of them are trying to show if it’s possible to run a modern civilization. It’s all about the boundaries set. They all assume the background system continues as normal, while setting their boundaries to compare renewables with fossil fuels, like the Lazard LCOE type reports.

      They never compare with what we built the entire system of modernity with.
      The reports compare total possible output of solar and wind, with limited capacity of coal, gas and nuclear power, because a lot of the time the renewables will be going first as the grids have been set up. They add handicaps to coal of CCUS, which is not happening anywhere, plus add costs of purchasing and transport of fossil fuels, that didn’t happen with the early power plants we built the system with..

      To me they all prove that new coal, gas and nuclear are unviable to run a modern civilization, with the limitations they place on them, just like renewables. We are cooked if we keep trying to increase fossil fuel use, until we can’t, or we we collapse by trying to use too expensive renewables.

      I suspect we just keep going in the direction we have been for decades, telling ourselves stories of saving the planet by going to renewables, while we burn more fossil fuels in the attempt to change, until we cannot increase fossil fuel use because of peak oil, where all the feedback loops of the downslope lead directly to collapse of the entire complex system…

      Like

      Reply

  51. Hideaway’s exchanges on POB reminds me of my own debates with Dennis and others on that site years ago. It always ended the same way. Dennis only has three moves

    a) Pull up some rubbish numbers from some papers which “proves” that wind and solar will be cheaper in the near future, the economy is decoupling form energy and growing with less energy each year, and EV’s are displacing IC cars.

    b) When pointed out that you need fossil fuels to mine, transport and manufacture so called renewables and batteries that he is banking on he points to some very specific cases of overhead electric cables powering trucks in a mine in Sweden and the electricity being generated by hydroelectric or some pumped hydro installation somewhere and extrapolating that.

    c) If you point out that he is being selective he pulls the last card which is fantasy tech like next gen reactors, or futuristic battery tech that will match diesel engines or some other nonsensical stuff that only exists in a lab.

    Hideaway’s answers are very clear, logical and full of precise numbers and illustrations which are impossible to counter so he just ignores them and continues making his own silly points and looks like a fool.

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

  54. People at my work keep getting boosted and they keep getting covid. Regardless of the potential health consequences of the jabs, why can’t they see that the jabs are useless?? The flu this year was by all accounts worse than covid-19, so why bother getting boosted….

    Like

    Reply

    1. Ya, at this point all you can do is shake your head.

      My work has the “doctors” come to us. Sometimes a dedicated room downstairs, but most of the time the Healthcare people show up in a big truck or van and the sheep line up in the parking lot so they can get a vaccine, booster, mammogram, etc., inside the truck.

      It was bizarre to me prior to covid, but now its just sad. And it used to be once or twice a year. Nowadays there seems to be some type of healthcare event once a month. The last one was for virus boosters.

      We’ve had something called biometric screening, for years now. Once a year they come to the office and give you a full body physical basically.  They say it’s all about identifying diabetes, hypertension and heart disease. Checking things like height, weight and waist circumference, body fat percentage, blood pressure, blood work, cholesterol and glucose levels. 

      Mostly everyone in the office complies. And they bring their spouse too. My work tries to put the fear into us by saying if you don’t complete a biometric screening by the deadline, the annual surcharge to your medical premium is $625 for employees or $1,250 if you cover your spouse/partner.

      I did it once and will never do it again. Instead of some doctor in a white coat, it’s a bunch of young people conducting the tests. After you get done with all the tests, you sit down with a more respectable senior type representative. His job is to show you all the scary results and get you to sign up for all kinds of appointments & procedures. (I am still not sure if this is just a racket for them to squeeze money out of you after you are feeling vulnerable from the scary results… or if this is more about collecting data on people) 

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

  55. “Right. Left. Center. Blue. Red. Green. Doesn’t matter. Elections are theatre to give the impression of choice and agency in a rigged and corrupt system.”

    If anyone in the audience has trouble accepting that quote, then you might benefit from this article by Steve Bull. His writing mainly focuses on collapse & overshoot. First time I’ve seen him touch politics.

    Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CLXXXI | by Steve Bull (https://olduvai.ca) | Jun, 2024 | Medium

    Like

    Reply

  56. Fascinating interview by Kunstler of an experienced surgeon today.

    Wide ranging discussion about a drastic decline in public health made worse by covid, the ongoing collapse of the health care system, a big drop in the competence of new doctors, the insanity of covid policies, and most interesting, this surgeon is no more sure of what happened with covid than I am.

    It’s like there is a big force in play affecting all aspects of society. Maybe we really are witnessing symptoms of collapse. I don’t know, but something big is going on.

    I can see it everywhere, most worrying of late in the incompetence of our political leaders.

    https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-404-a-general-surgeon-talks-about-the-ruinous-financialization-of-medicine/

    Dr. Sid Rohrscheib is a general surgeon in central Illinois. His career spans the period from the 1990s to present and he has witnessed the changes wrought by the financialization of medicine. We have corresponded for a while about the problems in health care and he kindly consented to come on the podcast.

    Like

    Reply

    1. I like to read books on military matters because mistakes and incompetence tend to play out quickly and can easily be traced back to the “guilty parties” unlike politics where the results play out slowly and those responsible have long ago left the scene (except apparently in the USA where the Pelosis and McConnels seem to hang around forever).

      In a book from the 1970s by Norman Dixon “On the Psychology of Military Incompetence” I came across this quote from another author Charles Fair (From the Jaws of Victory) which seems to deal, at least partly, with the causes of institutional incompetence.

      “One of the chief differences between ourselves and the ancients lies not (unfortunately) in human nature, but rather in the proliferation of our skills and our institutions, and therefore in the number of niches in which the incompetent can now install themselves as persons of consequence.”

      That was written 50 years ago – how much worse is it now?

      Mick N

      Like

      Reply

  57. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/17/climate/water-conflict-us-mexico-heat-drought/index.html
    Are you ready for the water wars?

    Under an 80-year-old treaty, the United States and Mexico share waters from the Colorado River and the Rio Grande, respectively. But in the grip of severe drought and searing temperatures, Mexico has fallen far behind in deliveries, putting the country’s ability to meet its obligations in serious doubt.

    …

    The Rio Grande — called the Río Bravo in Mexico — is one of North America’s longest rivers and flows roughly 1,900 miles from Colorado’s Rocky Mountains, weaving through three US and five Mexican states before ending its journey in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Years of over-extraction to serve farmers and booming populations, along with climate change-fueled heat and drought, have taken a toll.

    …

    Mexico is enduring its most expansive and severe drought since 2011, affecting nearly 90% of the country. Water has become an increasingly fraught topic, with fears cities — including Mexico City — could be barreling toward a “day zero,” on which water runs dry.

    …

    Discussions for a new minute aimed at making Mexico’s water deliveries more reliable stalled at the end of last year, as Mexico focused on elections. Now that they’re over, with climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum set to take office in October, negotiations are ramping up again, said Giner. “We’ve asked Mexico for a plan on how they’re going to meet their deficit right now.”

    Like

    Reply

    2. MORT oozes out here in Arizona. Our local news has mild water wars coverage and their stories sometimes have hilarious endings. Something like “at the last minute they signed a 100-year water contract ….”.

      Living in this high population, 110F desert heat and understanding overshoot/energy is a bad mix for sanity. My prediction for what starts my collapse has always involved the A/C not working. But it feels obvious this water shit is gonna affect me. Entire Southwestern United States will be in trouble, and I’m in the middle. Guessing I have 2 – 15 years max BAU water. Thats why I’m always a fan of collapse now by any means possible. Push the button, lets go. (except when my mind is in the good place)

      Humans were the worst. Probably of the entire universe. Outside of nuclear war, hard to believe anyone did it faster. Starting points being the energy constraints of fire, agriculture, and fossil fuels. (at that same pace if anyone ever busted through whatever the next constraint is, they’ll be extinct the next day. LOL)

      Like

      Reply

      1. Why do so many people keep moving to Arizona? I think MORT and just plain inattention are part of the reason.

        Also a lot of semiconductor plants are planned for Arizona there even though semiconductor fabrication is very water intensive.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. Ya, the semiconductor thing is hilarious. Thats the kind of shit that makes me back away from “they have a plan”… seems more likely there is no plan and “they” have no idea of the storm that’s brewing.

          50 states to choose from and you pick the absolute worst one possible for those plants. (But in the back of my mind, I hear Rob’s – The probability of getting 100% of things wrong by mistake is 0%.)

          Like

          Reply

  58. mRNA provides no protection from a disease that does not require protection, and does not stop transmission, but does cause myocarditis, cancer, clots, and now dementia. In addition, transfecting billions has promoted variants which may eventually evolve into a serious problem.

    https://x.com/_aussie17/status/1802901646911144313

    Japanese Neuroscientist Dr. Hiroto Komano Alarmed at Explosive Dementia Surge Amongst COVID Vaccinated Individuals: Massive Study of ~600,000 Reveals

    Highlights
    This paper was recently published. There has been talk about the relationship between dementia and the COVID vaccine, so they investigated this in South Korea. They examined a very large number of people. They examined a very large number of people – 550,000 people. 550,000 people. And they limited it to those who received two doses of the vaccine. And then, after one month, two months, three months, they analyzed all the data.

    Mild dementia. It’s the precursor stage before dementia. It’s the precursor stage before dementia. This had doubled. Among vaccinated individuals compared to non-vaccinated individuals. This is significant. And this is after three months. After three months. And the number of people who developed dementia or Alzheimer’s disease increased by over 20%.

    Like

    Reply

    1. This is indeed worrying. I have the gene for Alzheimer’s. and I am double jabbed 😦
      I’ll never forgive Jacinda or the Labour party, or any of the “leaders” in New Zealand

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      1. Dementia is basically type three diabetes. Cut out sugars and go as low carb as you can with periodic fasting to keep you in better shape.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

        1. I don’t have the ‘genes’ for diabetes though. I am currently working with a herbalist to improve my liver function, because I already have high signs of metabolic syndrome, which is the precursor to conditions like diabetes. I get extreme sugar cravings, so it’s pretty tough trying to eat less of it. A few changes I have made include only eating a protein breakfast, protein with every meal, trying to reduce snacking and lower overall carb consumption. Also using the Glucose Goddess’ hacks. It’s still hard though – but I’m trying!

          Like

          Reply

Leave a reply to Florian Cancel reply