By paqnation (aka Chris): My Final Act

Today’s guest essay by paqnation (aka Chris) tackles a challenging topic with deep ties to Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory which inspires un-Denial.com.

Chris discusses yet another strange behavior that is unique to our species.

And how hard it is to do the right thing in our modern world.

I have been fixating on evil lately (on an individual level). And by evil I am just limiting it to anything that degrades ecological integrity. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that 100% of my everyday actions are steeped in evil. There is nothing I do that does not involve evil towards the planet. Just typing this essay on my internet computer in my house powered by electricity with the heater on. Everything in my home used up resources and fossil fuels to get to me. And I pay for it by working at a corporation that only creates more evil in the world. Jeez! Too much evil within evil within evil, to even comprehend. Driving my car is the same story. Ditto for eating my grocery store bought food. Every action a person takes in this civilization already has loads of evil baked into it. So what is the opposite of this. Planting trees, gardening, rewilding land, composting my toilet waste? Yes, but I’m sure there is lots of evil within that, just to get to the non-evil deed. Besides, I don’t do any of those things. And even if I did, ok fine, maybe I get my 100% evil actions down to 99%.

It’s obvious that there is a threshold for an acceptable amount of evil that Mother Earth can tolerate and would even expect. Heck, just picking up a piece of deadwood and using it to make a fire is evil. So there is no way to avoid it. The ecological overshoot graphs we’ve all seen time and time again explain what this “threshold” limit looks like. Just another thing that comes down to balance, harmony, and equilibrium. Which, of course, human civilization, by default, cannot achieve.

That got me focusing on my greatest act of evil. It feels like something related to my eating habits would be the winner. The wasting of all the food throughout my lifetime. Or just the day-by-day participation in this horrendous cycle of how we eat in today’s world. But this is more about the accumulation that makes it so evil. I’m looking for a single act that can be labeled “most evil thing I’ve ever done”. Flying on a plane maybe? Prior to my awakening to reality, I was guilty of some horrible acts. On multiple occasions I have dumped trash/junk out in the desert to avoid landfill fees. When I was a teenager, I once changed my car oil and dumped the old oil on the side of the road. At least I’ve never started a forest fire, which has to take the cake for the most evil one person can do (or maybe I’m not thinking hard enough). But I believe I have a clear-cut winner that most of us will be guilty of and does not happen until we are dead.

A lot of people write about nature’s contract or the social contract. Here is a great link on the topic by Tom Murphy: In Breach of Contract.

The core of these “contracts” seems to me is the create/sustain/end part. The “end” portion is where I think our biggest act of evil may rest. We are the only species in which the dead do not return naturally to the eco-system.

Long-life coffins, clothes & decor, deep burial and embalming (which contaminates the soil and groundwater) result in the dead remaining intact for a very long time. Overall, embalming for burial uses over 800,000 gallons of toxic chemicals every year. As well as the costs thru time of mowing around your grave and re-erecting your crumbling gravestone. Not knowing much about this topic, I found out that we put coffins (wooden and metal) inside bigger cement coffins. Our fear of critters eating our corpse is laughably insane. This type of burial practice is just over a hundred years old, which makes perfect sense considering the insanity of modernity and being alive in the most abnormal moment in human history.

Cremation (which I have always preferred) is even worse and turns your body into air pollution and barren ash. Studies of emissions reveal that cremation turns people into at least 46 different pollutants. Some of these, like nitrous oxides and heavy metals, remain in the atmosphere for up to 100 years causing ozone depletion and acid rain. Cremation emits mercury, sulfur dioxide, and, in the US, about 360,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions into our air every year. Our bodies, on average, take three hours to burn in a crematorium, using up large quantities of fuels like electricity and natural gas. Once again, our fear of critters eating our corpse is laughably insane.

I was bouncing around the internet to get this info. And maybe my stats and figures can be debated, but I think everyone who is this far along into their collapse journey can easily understand how giving my 220 pounds of resources back to Mother Earth is much more beneficial than disintegrating my resources into ashes or keeping them preserved in a metal box inside of a concrete box. (and this is why it feels like my final act will be my most evil)

I can almost hear the absurd conversation with our “Creator/Sustainer/End” in my head. It goes something like:

Mother Earth: Ok, here’s the contract. I am going to create you using my resources, then sustain you with my resources, and when you die I will end you by consuming your resources so that I can keep creating and sustaining in this beautiful cycle of life. Deal?

Modern Humans: Ok, I’ll take you up on your offer for creating and sustaining me, but when it comes time for the end portion, I will renege on our deal and not allow you to use my resources for your benefit. In fact, I’m gonna go out with one last bang and continue harming you even though I’m dead. Deal?

Take, take, take. Never give. Just follows the normal human civilization theme of “everything we do and how we do it is wrong (evil)”.

Natural burials and green burials seem like a better way to go. A quick definition in case you’ve never heard of green burial: designed to have a minimal environmental impact and conserve natural resources. It emphasizes simplicity and sustainability. In a typical green burial, the body is not cremated, prepared with chemicals, or buried in a concrete vault. And some of the green burial sites sell it with options where you are buried with no casket and then a tree is planted on top of you. Having a tree sprout above my corpse is a beautiful idea that I would have mocked (or been grossed out by) prior to my “awakening”.

Unfortunately, the cost is high and availability is low. Average pricing (for my state) is $5,000. And for comparison, traditional burial is $8,000 and cremation is $1,500 (although, when my Dad passed away a few years ago, the cremation cost $2,500. No service or fancy urn. Just the bare minimum). And it looks like there is an even better way called human composting. Which is pretty much exactly what it sounds like. But this is only available in a handful of states (mine is not one of them). And cost is $5,000 – $7,000.

I will definitely be looking into these alternatives more because I prefer my final act to not be evil if I can help it (and afford it). Might be my one and only good deed towards ecological integrity. There should be a legal, easy & inexpensive way to put our dead naked bodies into the soil for two obvious reasons. First and foremost, so that Mother Earth gets full maximum benefit. And second so that modern humans can at least honor a portion of our contract.

One last note. I came up with this topic by staring at the table below. Sounds weird, I know. I created this simple table a while back (which I’m sure can be nitpicked to death) for the sole purpose of keeping me on track. My bargaining phase gets me to waste time chasing magical solutions. Looking at this chart helps bring me back down to reality. Another positive outcome is that it gets me thinking about stuff I that I’ve never thought about.

Thanks for listening, Chris

Rob here, I can confirm Chris’ research because one of my university summer jobs was making precast concrete coffin liners.

Chris’ essay reminded me of a comedy skit on peak oil from the 2005 play by Robert Newman titled Apocalypso Now.

It’s a fun reminder of how many of us doomers thought 20 years ago.

If you’re in a hurry, skip ahead to the 6 minute mark for the relevant joke.

732 thoughts on “By paqnation (aka Chris): My Final Act”

  1. I spent the day culling for donation a bunch of books I had in storage.

    When I discovered the implications of peak oil about 15 years ago, I bought a bunch of books on renewable energy, hydrogen, etc. looking for a solution.

    Knowing what I know now I re-scanned the books.

    It’s quite amazing how someone intelligent and well educated can write a thick impressive looking book that makes a persuasive case that BAU can continue without fossil energy, and be COMPLETELY wrong.

    How is that possible? Oh yeh, that’s why I got interested in denial.

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  2. Hideaway today:

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-feb-28-2024/#comment-771471

    Dennis, you seem to be the master of the hand wave, we can do this….

    “Also there is a huge amount of human and animal sewage that could be transformed into fertilizer if needed.”

    I’ve heard that many times from many different people, but not once has anyone bothered to do an energy calculation on the building of all the necessary equipment, and energy used in the process and transport back to and onto the fields that grow the produce, all without the use of fossil fuels. Perhaps you just volunteered to do these sums?

    ” In 2021 World Aluminum smelting consumed about 6% of total electricity net generation.”

    I’m not even sure what world total aluminium electricity consumption has to do with the discussion. I’m talking about the constant claim I hear by people that solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuel electricity production, (like the article linked above) yet no-one can point to a single aluminium smelter that has decided to go off grid with their own solar, wind and backup…

    It would make total economic sense to go off-grid on their own power from solar and wind if they were indeed cheaper than the still mostly fossil fuel powered grid. Yet no-one is doing it!!

    How can you not see that something is very, very wrong with the narrative and claims about how cheap solar and wind are, if market oriented industry is NOT going with the ‘cheaper’ option??

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  3. Angry aware Sri Lankan Indrajit Samarajiva eviscerates Europe today.

    https://indi.ca/europeans-are-the-worlds-biggest-suckers/

    America Has Defeated Europe

    Nobody deserves it more, but you have to feel bad for Europeans. They’re colonized by America and they don’t even know it. Europeans are told to blame Russia, China, immigrants and to love the Americans actually fleecing them. America is literally occupying, bombing, and deindustrializing Europe, and taxing the suckers 2% for the privilege. America bombs pipelines in Germany to sell the fools more expensive American gas. America sends Europe’s weapons to Ukraine, then forces the Europeans to buy even more expensive replacements. America doesn’t protect Europe, it’s a protection racket. Europeans are bad people, but you have to feel bad for them. After sucking the world dry for hundreds of years, they’re now just the world’s biggest suckers.

    Europe is not a real continent. It’s just Asia with a racist line drawn across it. Europe is not historically coherent. They just drew another racist line across the deeply connected Mediterranean. The only thing uniting Europe is racism, which is why I have no patience for ‘Europeans’. I actually have more patience for Nazis. Hitler was at least an honest European. Perhaps the last one.

    Hitler openly said he was going to kill and steal from colored people and Slavs. Europeans do the same thing and are just more sanctimonious about it. With the Nazis we knew what we were getting, but Europeans don’t even know what or where they are. Proudly delusional Europeans (especially Brits) think they won World War II, but they didn’t. They were just spoils, split between the USA and USSR. The USSR side was the better side, they at least left. Western Europe is still occupied by American troops. That’s who rules the colonial White Empire now, and Europeans are just pawns to sacrifice.

    The operational ‘country’ in Europe, of course, is the EU, which isn’t even close to a democracy. The EU is literally a steel and coal cartel, an oligarchy masquerading as a democracy. The EU is a bunch of unelected bureaucrats lecturing more advanced civilizations about elections. Like any vassal, the EU has regional control over culture and some commerce, but big military and economic decisions are made at the imperial level. Like the decision to start a land war in Asia and sacrifice European arms and economy to it. America has a brainfart and Europe is where the shit comes out.

    Fighting Russia—which they share an actual continent with—is not in Europe’s interests at all, but who cares about the interests of a pawn? America tried to hit Russia over the head with Europe, broke Europe, and has just moved onto the next war. ‘Europeans,’ however, can’t keep the heat on without Russian gas and their deindustrialized economy can’t even make gunpowder without Xinjiang cotton. Like good vassals, they followed America into every battle, and end up left on the battlefield like dumb vassals. Europeans are not ‘defending democracy’, they’re just willing participants in their own oppression, with the periodic brutalization of colored people as a consolation prize. The EU is a fucking joke and, for once, the joke’s on them. Nobody deserves it more. These dumbasses got colonized, and by the ugly Americans no less. How embarrassing.

    NATO protects Europe the way a mafia protects a neighborhood. NATO is a protection racket. NATO ‘contributions’ are just an imperial tax, while the Empire goes out and starts wars that make Europe poorer and less safe. What does America care? Their business model has long been losing wars and profiting from the carnage. Europeans are just the suckers shelling out 2% of their GDP on weapons, much of it going to the Americans. Europeans are proudly paying for their own occupation.

    For years nobody noticed because NATO was at least fun. It was an international gun club that organized hunting trips to kill poor people. Now, however, NATO has picked on someone their own size (Russia) and is losing, badly. European armories have been emptied out and sanctions have just exploded in their face. America has sacrificed the people of Ukraine and the economy of Europe to somehow improve the Russian military and economy. The actual point of this war, from the American perspective, is the same point of all Americans wars. Profit. As I said, the great imperial innovation from America has been making money by losing wars, and now Europe is paying for it.

    The idea that NATO protects Europe is, at this point, laughable. NATO had no reason to expand or even exist after the USSR fell, and they have no reason to pick fights with Russia or China. Those are literally their suppliers of energy and manufactured goods. If anything, Europeans need protection from America, which has bombed German pipelines and cut them all off from trading partners. NATO doesn’t protect anything besides arms dealers’ pockets. Like I said, it’s just a protection racket.

    Europe has just been colonized most foul, but it’s a farce because the Europeans are proud of it. Europe is truly an irredeemable concept. They don’t seem to care where they are in the hierarchy of white supremacy as long as they can still kick down. Colonization couldn’t happen to worse people, but you still have to feel bad for them. Europeans think they’re so much better than the Americans, when they are, in fact, just America’s clowns.

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  4. Tom Murphy today asks what will we give up to keep everything that matters?

    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/03/lets-make-a-deal/

    In this post, I ask: what would you be willing to trade for all animal life on this planet? It may seem like a forced and false choice, as nobody is proposing to eliminate all animal life on the planet. Despite this, we’re doing a dazzlingly good job of marching toward that very goal, whether explicitly intending to or not. Typical decline rates among vertebrates and insects are in the 1–2% per year ballpark; average decline in vertebrate populations is 70% since 1970; and a sixth mass extinction appears to have kicked off with extinction rates about 1,000 times the background rate. So, the prospect of losing Earth’s biodiversity is not purely hypothetical, thus deserving serious attention. I’ll have more to say about the validity of this approach at the end.

    Meanwhile, are you ready to play the game?

    Today, the growth acceleration continues. To take a recent addition to the arsenal, artificial intelligence is nothing more than a giant modernity parrot, containing zero wisdom. It is a tool that serves the capitalist market system quite well as people scramble to monetize its mediocre capability, resulting in more exploitation of the natural world. Nothing about it is causing people to scale back, or to recognize the error of our ways. Why would the Human Reich use any such tool to dismantle itself?

    Energy transition aspirations are similar. The goal is powering modernity, not addressing the sixth mass extinction. Sure, it could mitigate the CO2 threat (to modernity), but why does the fox care when its decline ultimately traces primarily to things like deforestation, habitat fragmentation, agricultural runoff, pollution, pesticides, mining, manufacturing, or in short: modernity. Pursuit of a giant energy infrastructure replacement requires tremendous material extraction—directly driving many of these ills—only to then provide the energetic means to keep doing all these same things that abundant evidence warns is a prescription for termination of the community of life.

    So, color me skeptical that modern technology is compatible with long-term ecological health. The cliff edge we are presently falling over provides a frightening caution that the present mode is patently unsustainable and therefore barreling toward compulsory failure.

    Thus, maybe the choice is not a false one after all. If we value the animals above our devices and conveniences, than maybe we ought to act like it—because it is far from obvious that we can have our cake and eat it, too. What fool would even risk it?

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    1. Hi Rob, was it the clip from Robert Newman’s History of Oil? I watched that one years ago when I first started down the path awakening to our overshoot issues. I liked it very much and thought it was funny and informative, all powered by eco-cyclers too which was a nice touch!

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  8. Man oh man oh man this covid thingy can make you crazy.

    There are 4 main theories to explain what happened:
    1) what we were told is true
    2) mild pandemic from lab leak, panic stoked, make money for pharma & hospitals, force acceptance of mRNA without proper testing
    3) no pandemic, clone virus released to make few people sick a give appearance of pandemic, panic stoked by killing people with ventilators, remdesivir, etc., force mRNA acceptance without proper testing
    4) no virus, all a hoax to make money and force mRNA

    If none of the above ring true and you enjoy a juicy conspiracy then you’ll love the latest theory.

    5) Crimson Contagion Theory: There really is a serious pandemic in play, caused by accidental release of US gain of function research on the 1917 avian flu, US leaders really were panicked about implications, blamed sickness on China Wuhan animals we’d never eat to hide possible transmission in chicken eggs, removed tests for avian flu from market to hide real sickness, explains why they killed so many chickens, explains why early vaccines purchased were for flu and not covid, explains why flu disappeared, explains long covid and the new disease X., explains why Trump kept talking about 1917 flu, real purpose of mRNA is avian flu, and much more.

    https://rumble.com/v4h83tr-was-the-vax-for-something-else-dr.-scott-jensen-dave-collum-john-cullen-tpc.html

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    1. Whew!… I can’t believe I just listened to this. I’m impressed with myself. I am in the camp that thinks Rob spends too much time on covid. I’ve made up my mind that its all about experimenting and getting us ready for massive population reduction. Future vaccines & viruses will do three things: nothing / kill you / save you. And we peasants will not know which is which. The one percenters will eventually get some type of vital cryptic message like “pass on the first five vaccines, but make sure you get the sixth one”. The rest of us will just have to “guess” correctly.

      Little bit of a used car salesman vibe from the main speaker, but I made it all 2.5 hours, and it was very interesting. Problem is if I don’t keep myself in check, I’m gonna waste hours and hours down this never-ending rabbit hole. I’d be better off looking into 9/11 or JFK.

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      1. Yeh that guy with the sunglasses is selling a mystique for clicks.

        I feel like I understand most of what’s going on in the world and why. But I’m uncertain with covid, and I’m in good company. There are a lot of smart people trying to figure out what happened and most have different theories with compelling evidence that are not so far converging to a common story.

        To prove my point, you have a 6th theory I’ve not heard before.

        It’s a mystery I’d like to solve.

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        1. I hear ya Rob. Covid is a crazy mystery. And even though I might give you a hard time about spending too much time on it, I still get good info because of you. The “mistakes were not made” poem was maybe the very first thing I came across when I found your site. I still listen to that every few days or so. Depending on my mood, it can make me cry on que.

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    1. LOL. This is what Jon Stewart used to be so brilliant at back in the day. Showing how rehearsed and scripted our corporate news agencies are.

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  10. Rob I wonder if reading these types of discussions could help develop MORT?

    https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/s/b5OUqP6fAr

    I particularly like this answer because it is similar to my own experience:

    It freaks me out too.

    From the moment I was a small child and I understood what death was, it terrified me. This fear never left me, and as I grew older and began to understand my own consciousness more, grew even stronger. The religious people who believed there was an afterlife awaiting them, I understood in motivation (if not their blind faith), but I could never understand those who believed in annihilation after death and yet did not fear it.

    You know, the “You were dead for an infinity before you were born and you’ll be dead for an infinity afterwards so why worry about it?” types. To have such a flippant attitude towards the end of one’s own consciousness seems to indicate a profound lack of appreciation of it. Are people not astounded at the fact that they can remember things? The fact that they can feel? Their thousands of little quirks interplaying in unpredictable and idiosyncratic ways, creating the emergent phenomenon that is their personality?

    People can spend so much mental energy hating things- people of different colors, of different places, of different beliefs, or of different types of bodies, but who puts any meaningful energy into hating the processes which rob us of what we are? How dare anything, including the ravages of time itself, metaphorically rob our homes and take everything we have? Why are more people not furious about this?

    At the zenith of science, of genetic engineering and artificial intelligence, it feels that our species is pouring resources into creative ways to exploit, scam, and destroy one another when we could be making meaningful progress towards killing our one true enemy since time immemorial- death itself.

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    1. Thanks. Can’t rememeber if I mentioned it but I’m thinking about my mortality these days because I’ve been sorting and discarding my parent’s belongings I had in storage.

      My father died at 72 and my mother at 77 which means I’ve got maybe 10 years left. Not a lot of time. How will I spend it? I’d like to be a kinder less angry person for the remainder.

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    2. To me.

      If we were to “kill death”, everything would come to a landstill. Static world.
      Death and birth (renewal) are intertwined.
      There are two sides to a coin, yet there is one coin.
      Anyway, this is all only a way to frame things. We can equally say there is no birth, no death, only continuous change. Or we can say that death and birth happen all the time: we die and are born at each breath, with each cell (notice how, in english, “being born” is passive and “dying” is active, a very deeply rooted conditioning). Or we can say, there is only the eternal flow of life running from envelope to envelope, from vehicle to vehicle. Or we can say, it’s all a continuously painful fall towards annihilation.
      Room for many diverse religions, all with a portion of truth.

      In any case, what is is 🙂

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    3. Interesting, since it seems to be consistent with Varki’s claim about what mortality salience can do to a person. However, it’s the first example I’ve ever seen. Myself, my siblings, my children, my nieces and nephews, my grandchildren have never had that terror, as far as I’m aware. This lack of terror is one reason why I’m not convinced of Varki’s hypothesis.

      An odd end to that answer, though. It seems to be a plea to live forever, as though such a thing were possible, if we put enough resource into the quest. It would be game over for the planet though, so thankfully it’s not possible.

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  11. Today’s essay by Alan Urban on what it means to be collapse aware will speak to the hearts of many people here.

    https://www.collapsemusings.com/what-it-means-to-be-collapse-aware/

    I became collapse-aware a few years ago, and it completely changed my life.

    Collapse-aware is a term that has become much more popular in recent years, especially among climate activists. Some people prefer the term doomer or collapsnik or eco-pessimist, but I think collapse-aware is the best term to describe someone like me.

    But before I can tell you what it means to be collapse-aware, I have to tell you what “collapse-aware” means. If you’re collapse-aware, it means you’ve learned enough about climate change, pollution, resource depletion, and biodiversity loss to conclude that civilization is unsustainable and will eventually collapse.

    Whether the collapse happens suddenly or takes several decades, and whether it happens soon or in the distant future, is up for debate. But the end result is the same: a pre-industrial world with a much smaller population.

    It could be a world where nearly everyone works from sunup to sundown to put food on the table. It could be a world where people have to hunt and gather for survival, constantly moving in search of food and resources. Or it could be a world where humans, along with most other creatures, have gone extinct.

    One thing is certain: It’s all downhill from here. Living standards will decline, shortages will increase, and war will become widespread as countries fight over the last remaining resources. Looking at the world today, one could easily make the case that the collapse has already begun.

    He goes on to provide a long list of impacts on his life. Here are a few of my favorites:

    It means walking around with butterflies in your stomach because you know the end is near.

    It means resisting the urge to tell strangers how fucked we are for fear that they’ll think you’re crazy.

    It means questioning your own sanity.

    It means feeling rage at people who deny basic science.

    It means questioning everything you thought you knew about humanity.

    It means friends and family avoiding you because they think you’re too negative.

    It means feeling like you’re living in an episode of The Twilight Zone where everyone else has gone insane.

    It means experiencing a powerful sense of solidarity with other collapse-aware people.

    It means realizing you’ve wasted most of your life on things that don’t matter.

    It means stockpiling food and supplies even though you know that no matter how much you have, it will never be enough.

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    1. Alan is slowly becoming one of the better writers about collapse. Couple that I would add:

      It means massive confusion about what to do with this knowledge. Do I become like a Jehovah’s witness and start going door to door to spread the word? Or just sit on this info and wait for the end?

      It means laughing hysterically at todays headlines. I recently saw this one: NFL to add two expansion teams by 2050.

      It means no longer being able to watch my favorite sci-fi stuff (like Star Wars, Star Trek, Firefly). The only shows I can watch nowadays are light comedies that take me back to a better time and don’t make me think about energy (Newhart, Wings, Frasier, Barney Miller).

      It means constant struggling with whether I should quit my job. My biggest fear is that I am still working up to the collapse. I want to quit and try to enjoy our remaining days. But cannot do that without an accurate collapse timeframe.

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          1. Yes, haha but they are probs in denial LOL. I just keep going to work and living my normal life. I take an interest in skills that we will need in a post oil world. I still try to enjoy my life as much as I can. I read on a ‘near term human extinction’ forum a question from this guy who didn’t want his wife to buy a greenhouse, but his wife wanted one. He argued, what’s the point if we’ll all be dead soon. Um just buy your wife the damn greenhouse man! Geez if you can make your wife happy, why they hell not? It wasn’t like she wanted to go travel Europe for 6 months (they were already retired).

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      2. Yes, it’s a constant battle between knowing that savings aren’t going to help when society collapses and so should be spent now on useful stuff, and the wondering if society can hold together for the rest of my life so I need those savings just to get by for that period.

        TV is an odd one. I don’t really care about any programmes I watch. I really just watch them to keep my wife company, as she likes to watch TV. However, I think we’re both more selective now than we used to be. To be honest, I prefer fantasy films to one which are set in what its producer thinks is the real world, because it isn’t. Knowing something isn’t set in a real world is more watchable.

        Totally agree with ridiculous long term projections (the NFL expansion) and with long term plans that assume business as usual for ever.

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      3. About the job, I would like to share an advice, which may either not be practical in your context or which you already followed. I will shoot anyway. I apologize, if this sounds obnoxious.

        One of our previous insane president had a slogan a few years ago: “work more in order to gain more”. (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travailler_plus_pour_gagner_plus)
        In practice, it has morphed for many into “work more in order to gain less”. (Since inflation and other cheats)
        I took the advice upside-down, and a slogan (which even had success with my blind co-workers) I like to repeat is: “gain less to live better”.

        In practice, this means I am working part-time. I first went for 90% to test the waters and am now at 80%. Best professional decision I ever took. Of course this means I cut on things (which I really didn’t need anyway) and am not able to save at the bank. At some point, I plan to go to 50% (my company collective agreements doesn’t offer the 60% stop. There are other schemes available though: like buying days off. Taking a sabbatical year to try something else can be a good experiment too). Note: my wife does not work at all.

        To sum up my strategy: I am trying to pre-emptively go the slow-collapse route, I am trying to disengage from the collective insanity, while at the same time I do not wish to become a martyr, or a hermit (yet).

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        1. Good advice Charles. I added your quote to the sidebar.

          “Gain less to live better” nicely compliments “Collapse now and avoid the rush” which is more or less my strategy.

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          1. Thank you 🙂

            Does this mean, I just achieved symbolic immortality? (well, as long as this site is up, until grid-collapse, not sure this is a very long immortality 🙂

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            1. lol. Yes Charles you made it to the big leagues with that quote. Now don’t mess it up.

              Ya, advice to work less is always good advice. I’m doing something similar but mine is only temporary because I have to get doctors to sign the necessary paperwork. That well is drying up now so I will be back to work full time soon. But it sounds like you have a good thing there with being able to gradually step down from the full-time hell of work.

              Let us know when you make it to 50% and how much other things you had to cut out of your life. I’m rooting for you to succeed with this plan. Good luck

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              1. Ah ah ah 🙂

                Thanks: I will have to wait till my daughter finishes her studies.

                I hope you find another strategy, or at least a professional activity somewhat in accordance with who you are…
                (Maybe you launch you own ecological burial business and green some wastelands in so doing 😉
                Good luck to you too.

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    2. That selected list shows how different we are. A lot of them I can identify with but many I’d disagree with, at least in part. However, I might have agreed with all of them a decade ago. Now I fully realise that humans are a species, many of them don’t seem quite right.

      I don’t think I’ve ever walked around with butterflies in my stomach though I did have a period of surrealism as I saw people going about their daily business apparently oblivious to what is coming.

      I never had an urge to tell strangers what was coming.

      I never questioned my own sanity though I often question my own views.

      I do get angry at those who deny basic science, though, with reflection, it’s something I’d expect.

      I did question everything I knew about humanity, leading me to a different set of views.

      Fortunately, friends and family don’t avoid me even after conversations about impending doom.

      I don’t think everyone else has gone insane.

      I do feel solidarity with other collapse aware people.

      I do feel, not that I’ve wasted most of my life, but that I wish I had become collapse aware much sooner (like 50 years ago). That waste of life might actually have provided the means to take collapse more seriously now. But I’ll never know how my life might have changed with earlier realisation.

      I can identify with the stockpiling food bit but, since becoming aware, I’ve always thought stockpiling could only ever provide a buffer and that I’d need to learn to produce my own food, or learn to identify wild food. I actually don’t have a stockpile of food currently though I’ve often thought about it.

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    3. Stock markets are at all time highs and likely to go higher because all liquids plus gas and coal are at all time highs, plus debt is at all time highs and rising. We should expect markets and property to go higher in ‘value’ in such an environment.

      It all changes when oil/all liquids is in freefall with year after year declines accelerating to the downside. It will happen one day, doesn’t matter how much oil there is. Everything of importance to humanity is reliant on oil, heavy transport, mining and agriculture in particular. Once oil deficiency is portrayed clearly, probably by exceptionally high prices being persistent, then the feedback loops kick in which will lead to rapid decline in civilization.

      We all know that the economy runs on energy, so once energy declines year after year, it becomes obvious to everyone that growth is dead. Renewables will become unaffordable, mining will become too costly, so the downward spiral will pick up pace, with the feedback loops, of things like, not enough grain production reaching people in the Middle East further reducing oil production with the problems lack of food causes.

      In other words when the decline in energy availability accelerates, collapse happens fairly quickly based on a global civilization..

      The good news is that we are not there yet…

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      1. Canada’s oil production was 4.4 mpd in 2023. Of that 4.4 mpd, 3.8 mpd is from the Tar Sands. Production of that oil relies on a constant input of natural gas and diluent. It’s quite possible they won’t have the natural gas or diluent in years to come and not all of the bitumen gets extracted.

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    1. And yet oil production is at all time high, stock markets go up on bad news, bitcoin has rebounded, property prices rising, and there are new billionaires every day. Maybe he is right and we are wrong. I doubt it, but I have been wrong for 10 years.

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      1. Yeah, all liquids production is at a high but the good stuff, crude and condensate, still peaked in November 2018. It’s incredible things have held together for so long.

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        1. How much longer do you think things will hold? Do you think we will have a abrupt drop-off or will we have a more gradual descent as suggested by Greer and Nate Hagens?

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          1. Hey Stellarwind. I do not believe it will be a gradual descent. I think that once a few things start happening (tipping points?) it will be like dominoes falling. Fast and furious.

            Paul Beckwith’s yt channel is a decent place to go if you are hoping for a quick collapse. He makes too many videos and they are low quality, but you will get some good info.

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          2. It’s helpful to look at Ugo Bardi’s work on seneca collapse. Just have to ignore is optimism about renewal energy. But he explains mathematically how the speed of collapse could look like

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          3. I doubt it will take as long as Greer thinks. He points to past civilisations as examples but none encompassed the entire globe with so much interdependencies. I’m not sure what downslope Hagens envisages. I can’t help thinking the slope will be steep once it gets really started, maybe because of a steep oil production decline once societies start to crumble and oil economies keep more of their production for themselves. That could lead to wars.

            But I just don’t know, and no-one does.

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          4. “abrupt drop-off or . . . a more gradual descent as suggested by Greer”

            People are saying it’s different this time because it’s the whole world, and I believe he’s saying ‘still the same’.

            In past writings he pegged the start as the early ‘sevenites. I well remember the gas lines in the autumn of 1973. Considered in this light, Greer’s idea of stair-steps down in complexity and energy use look reasonable to me.
            It does appear that some of these stair-steps are going to be steep and fast.

            Thanks and good health, Weogo

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        2. Hi there everyone,

          Mike, I hope all is going as well as can be for you and your family in NZ. As much as you and AJ muse over what you would have done if you knew earlier what you do now, I am glad that you were able to live relatively smooth lives in the era you were born into and had the opportunity to grow with your families through a full human life cycle. From what I’ve learned from you on this site, you both really walk your talk and have found a workable balance between your convictions and making it work on a day to day basis with your family and community, and that is a rare achievement for anyone, not to mention those who have become collapse-aware and can never live with their heads in the sand again.

          I really appreciated your and Rob’s comment about your own do’s and don’ts being collapse-aware. As even we here have different perceptions of and emotional reactions to the same facts, who can say how 8 billion other beings view things (and then react) with every possible permutation of distorted understandings. A one world government is perhaps the one logical conclusion as to how it might be managed once the smoke and mirrors can no longer hide the facts, however long it has been so-called held together, at least for us in the first worlds. It certainly was never together for many others on the planet, and those on the margins now are finding things rapidly falling apart at the seams. One can say a main reason it’s been kept going for so long for us is because we have been able to pull the wool over most people’s eyes thanks to denial, and the fact we have exploited so many other countries of resources and labour.

          One rabbit-hole that I have delved into in my stream-of-consciousness way, is my on-going fascination with the topic of the rise of a one world order, and I did comment muchly on this when I first joined this happy little band. Here’s a side-warren that I have poked my quivering nose into–I know that a few individuals here have a background in Christian mythology and relevant to this topic is that mystical last book in the Bible and mother of end-times, Revelations. A one world government, headed by an Anti-Christ personality, arising from the destruction and collapse of the depraved nations, heralded by war, famine, disasters, pestilence, and untold suffering (the four horsemen of the apocalypse) is the general theme of this strangely metaphored but now seemingly prescient vision. My interest is not in its authenticity as religious dogma, but the question of whether we consider this a prophecy or a warning because it is a matter of history repeating itself, in even more violent and catastrophic terms (although Revelations already unleashes the most dire scenarios imaginable, and you can interpret nuclear war in some descriptions). Do the ancient authors already have either knowledge or experience that this path of human hubris growing into global dominancy and then total geopolitical, biospheric collapse can and will happen again? It looks like someone(s) a long time ago already knew we would enter runaway overshoot as Homo sapiens, and if we can’t be changed by some kind of religious conversion that guides us to respecting the planet and one another as spiritual brothers and sisters (this has not been a successful experiment on the whole, to say the least) then maybe we can be frightened into following God’s ways by the ultimate doomsday movie. Interestingly and curiouser and curiouser, the Christian tradition is not the only long-standing one that foretells a doomsday end, the Hindu religion’s most sacred texts have passages which paint a convincing picture of advanced weaponry, nuclear war and its aftermath, as part of an endless cycle of creation and destruction.

          Here’s another WTF, let’s just open whatever can of worms left in my worm-eaten brain, moment (thanks Chris and Charles for giving me approval to do so!) I, too, am a fan of science fiction but what I am about to describe is perhaps even more “out there” so just sit back, relax, and suspend disbelief as you have for all the other crazy but somehow enticing cosmic fantasy that we humans seem drawn to. Rob, you have commented on the rather exotic religious expression of the Law of One, of which I can claim some understanding, but not necessarily endorsement. One of their beliefs is that highly evolved intelligent beings (mostly of the hominid persuasion) have cropped up all around the universe, and each eventually reaches this crossroad of either elevating themselves into another dimension spiritually by awakening to the oneness of everything as part of the one infinite creator, or pursuing power and choosing to be self-serving at the expense of others who are viewed as separate and deserving of exploitation and domination (think the Dark Triad personality), even though ultimately each path is still part of the One. If a majority of a whole population of these beings choose the self-serving pathway, there is a possibility of their planetary ecosystem being destroyed through their actions, namely a nuclear armageddon, and indeed the Law of One readings give an example of this in the humanoids that once populated what we know as Mars. The bringers of this Law of One knowledge to the Earth planet were high-level, fully service to others beings (originally from what we know as Venus) who transcended physicality (they are like the Borg, a mind collective) and wanted to warn us about the path we are undertaking and how to avoid the catastrophe that awaits, of which nuclear war would be the most damaging. Therefore they somehow instilled into the major developing religions of the civilisations of Earth at the time (roughly 12,000 years ago) tenets which they hoped would lead humans to more compassion, service to others, forgiveness, tolerance, and such which would help us cross the line to a higher spiritual level (think the Elves of Rivendell, LOTR), and at the same time, gave imagery of the utter devastation that would surely come to pass if we followed our baser instincts (definitely Mordor). Ostensibly, these heavenly aliens also introduced us Earth hominids to writing and agriculture, jump-starting our technological and civil developments. These beings now have remorse that their interventions were not altogether successful and actually caused greater harm (see, they should have followed the Prime Directive!) in that budding world civilisations, governments and their religions canonised the principles that furthered their greedy geopolitical aims whilst creating ever more entrenched adversaries by religious division through the ages (as in God gave us this land and not to those heathens). Now we have ever more reason to think another human being is different from us, in competition for what we desire and therefore expendable because our god has chosen us to prevail, and we are further and further from the joining of hands and hearts in brother and sisterhood.

          Well, that’s enough story time from me. I think I was trying to make some kind of point here but now I’ve totally lost it, but it does go to show that 8 billion brains on the loose can sure come up with whatever they want and that is not going to be a tidy scene especially as the collapse gets more underway and many of the uberstressed will be uberangry and fully armed. Oh yes, that was it–the reason a totalitarian one world government will be needed to keep anarchy at a simmer, at least to the minds of those who would be the new world order. We are heading full speed into our own self-fulfilling prophesy of TEOTWAWKI, and I don’t think anything, even sci fi fantasy, can stop this bullet train. We can still choose kindness, forgiveness and all that which adds to our peace whilst giving comfort to and relieving suffering of another. That makes for a good ending to the human story, after all.

          Namaste, everyone.

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          1. Hello Gaïa gardener 🙂

            Yes, this is all pretty mysterious. Rational minds will say ancient texts are to be interpreted metaphorically, or in the context of their times, or that prophecies tend to be self-fulfilling because once they are out in the woods, and successful, people will follow them like instructions. Other will claim foresight is given to some. Other that time has a cyclical nature (or is not fundamental). Yet other that we have reached world level civilisation and self-destroyed before. Who knows? I sure can’t be the judge.

            I also have in my possession a personal can of worms filled with feats (a few I witnessed) that may be possible to achieve through the practice of what is called in the east the Qi…

            Whatever lies ahead, I am now of the belief, that the direct path consists in taking life as it comes in full sincerity. Which, in truth, is quite hard. Fears and temptations are strong.

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            1. Hi Charles,

              I so hear you (and see you!) To live with full intention, without expectation, in awe and wonder, giving and receiving as easily as the in and out breath, that is mastery. Alas, I am only a grasshopper in this but I have been given some good challenges in which to practice!

              I would be interested in your experience with Qi work. All our known universe is about energy manifesting in different forms, so why not the unknown as well?

              I know you and your family are all well, content just to be with one another as you are for all the time you have. I find much happiness in that thought for you.

              Namaste.

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              1. 🙂

                Sorry, I don’t really want to dwell in the details of what the Qi allows. Because, ultimately, I believe it is a distraction. It will come to those for whom it is necessary. Also, because a part of me would prefer not to abuse Rob’s hospitality by going too far astray.

                So very succinctly, here is what (I think) I know and the boundaries of my inquisition. Qi is probably what goes by the name of magnetism in the west. It has been voluntarily and systematically destroyed (witch burning) or assimilated (priests powers) by the dominant culture. Its manifestations come in absolutely various forms. It can be performed by individuals and enhanced with the power of the group (collective prayers). There seems to be some prerequisites such as letting go, relaxing and some amount of faith (for some, practice can seemingly help, for other it is very intuitive and progress goes by leaps and bounds).
                Healing is one of the applications. “Fire talkers” (coupeurs de feu) officially cooperate with some hospitals in France. Another application is some kind of long distance sensing. Jean-Louis Crozier was famous for that and cooperated with the police. The list of things you can read about goes on an on: people able to suspend their hearts, sudden super-strength in life or death situations, metal bending, out of body experiences…
                I know people who tell me they can exchange mental images long-distance, or feel the accumulated past energy around churches and other objects of devotions. Other who can supposedly move small (I think metallic only) objects from a distance.
                I met a person who was able to read me like a book (know my thoughts and who I am) by just focusing. I saw condensed droplets of water pour out of palms of a martial artist after a relaxation/concentration exercise (it was not sweat).
                With practice and open attention, we can all feel the energy flowing around our bodies, or from trees. We can intuitively spot pressure points to relieve pain. Just with the imposition of hand at the right place, we can alleviate our own and other people’s pain.

                For every real manifestation there are so many quacks. Everything I will say about this will be false. One has to witness his own lot of miracles. Some will never accept the reality of any of this.

                I will now let it rest.

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                1. Very nice. I know this spiritual/religious/magic (or whatever name works for you) stuff is not popular here, but I absolutely love to hear about it from trusted sources. And I’ve seen enough of your comments and essay that I trust your judgement.

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          2. That was a good read Gaia. Anything that gets me thinking is ok in my book. So more “story time” is encouraged my me anytime you want.

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            1. Thank you Chris for inviting me back to the story-hour corner. At least I am better at spinning a tale than charades! Now that would be a laugh, try acting out the doomsphere without making a sound! It may look like Ring Around the Rosie, We All Fall Down! By the way, as you may know, that childhood ditty and skit is thought to refer to the bubonic plague with the description of the characteristic bullseye rash from the flea bite, flower posies to cover up the stench of decay, ashes from burning the bodies and clothing, and of course, death represented by all falling down. I guess child’s play and fairytales have always been a good way of masking the fear of doom. We have plenty of examples of that still, like sporting events (anyone remember it’s supposed to be an Olympic year?) and the green revolution with everyone living happily ever after.

              Hope you and your family are going well.

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              1. Oh for heaven’s sake Gaia, now you got me researching a children’s nursery rhyme. Had never heard about its origins before. Very interesting. (learn something new every day on this site. lol)

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          3. I envy people who obtain comfort from believing there is some form of spirituality in the universe that cares about us. Unfortunatley I see a flow of electrons looking for a home.

            On the cooincidence of end-times stories I see multiple organizations competing for new members and the one with the most exciting story that triggers our fear module while at the same time offering eternal happiness is likely to win. Just as today, every producer of action movies uses the same CGI techniques to get us to buy a movie ticket.

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            1. That’s just it, Rob! I identify best with being a bunch of electrons looking for a home! There’s real comfort there as anywhere and everywhere in the universe is a possibility. To be on record, I gave up distinct religious dogma many decades ago and never felt the need for life after death or someone or thing out there to care for me. It is enough to be alive once and able to care for myself and others whilst living. Then the electrons I borrowed can go do something else for the rest of eternity.

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          4. That was epic Gaia. Must be related to how Jordan from Spirit “Science” came up with the idea that Jews are originally from Mars. Watch here:

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            1. Hi monk,

              Hope you’re enjoying the cooler days of Autumn, and your farm is bringing forth much harvest. Hard to believe how quickly these weeks and months have gone, but I am sure the happy memories of your wedding and family trip are still as fresh and delightful as when it happened.

              Yeah, I have heard of some of this before in my earlier dabblings, talk about a mindbender! In more recent collapse aware years, I have found that trying to simplify my cosmic view is the most peaceful and useful attitude for myself but to give credit where it is due, there are some stories that should win planetary Oscars for screenplay!

              Go well and I trust you are finding calm and peace in every day. It’s always nice to see you here.

              Namaste.

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              1. Autumn has come by far too soon this year! We’re definitely getting a few chilly days. Lots of corgettes and tomatoes in the garden 🙂

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      2. It’s easy to think things are OK but most of the population just took a big hit to their living standard in the last 3-4 years. People are struggling to pay for housing and groceries. Fuel consumption has decreased a bit in North America. Far fewer young people can afford a car. Most people going forward will never retire. Inflation is a byproduct of overshoot and cheap debt. A lot of that debt will never be paid back. Things seem OK but underneath problems are brewing

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        1. Yes, very true. We are already in collapse and slowly accelerating (depends on your situation and location in the world).

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    2. Greer writes that “human population is near a peak and will decline for centuries to come.” If he is correct, the NFL’s plans for expansion in 2050 that Mike Roberts mentions should be put off indefinitely. Perhaps the NFL will even have to downsize by 2100. The NFL can review the demographic situation in 2150. No need to rush.

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      1. There will be no NFL before 2100 and probably no United States either. Greer’s thoughts on slow steady decline are his level of denial showing through. It takes modern machinery and technology to gain access to today’s energy.
        Decline in energy availability becomes self- fulfilling as less energy will make less energy available to gain energy. It basically winds down to close to zero all by itself.

        At some point we get to year over year declines in oil availability, an accelerating decline, which effects heavy transport, agriculture and mining in very negative ways. The feedback loops create an acceleration to the downside of energy availability, which just accelerates everything to the downside. Collapse will be fast unless the mythical ‘they’, can make energy decline very slowly decade after decade.

        The rise up the modernity curve, for an increasing population, allowed more technology to gain access to harder to obtain, deeper resources. We don’t find oil just 40′ below the surface anymore. Once on the downslope of energy availability, at some point there wont be the fuel to run the existing marginal operations, which will exacerbate the downward spiral, the machines and parts from across the world wont be made and shipped like now JIT (just in time). Food wont get to the cities, especially if farmers can’t plant due to lack of fuel and fertilizers. People wont turn up for work in factories if they have no food.

        This will all happen at different places around the world at varying rates of speed, but the overall effect will be to cripple modernity, which hastens the downward spiral of energy availability. Relative to the speed we went up the curve of modernity and population the downslope will be very rapid, a Seneca cliff. Imagine living in a city when the trucks stop delivering food to supermarkets just due to no diesel available in your country for whatever reason. We now have approximately 4 billion humans living in urban areas….

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        1. Garbage trucks stopping will also be very bad in cities.

          I think the mountain of debt we have built and are growing at an accelerating pace will steepen the downslope.

          Ditto for nuclear war which is a high probability when scarcity starts to bite.

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          1. Garbage trucks stopping will also be very bad in cities.

            🤢

            Debt allowed the party to continue for longer than it would have otherwise, but the hangover is going to be a lot worse.

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        2. Thanks mate, but I see that I failed in my attempt to make sly fun of Greer and the NFL. Well, I’m no Jonathan Swift and I didn’t come up to the level of A Modest Proposal, I guess.

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          1. On the plus side you received a well worded concise reply from Hideaway with clarity surrounding the downslope and for that I say thank you.
            I don’t think you failed either, most will have picked up on it.

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  14. Somehow this weird video (about an A.I. sci-fi novel) has connections to un-Denial. Don’t ask me to explain because I can’t. If you can give it 10 minutes, you’ll probably be hooked till the end. (warning: its definitely rated R)

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    1. Great, Even though I had read a great deal about the singularity 10-15 years ago, I was unfamiliar with this book. I’ll put it on my list to read, the video was good.
      AJ

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      1. Good to hear AJ. A lot of the stuff went over my head. But I loved the way life went full circle and started back at the beginning. The video feels like it was a made by a person who shares the beliefs here at un-Denial.

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  15. Very good essay from Tim Watkins today.

    He reinforces my belief that our debt bubble will play a larger role in the downslope than geology.

    Energy supply decline will light the fuse but debt is the bomb and when the bomb explodes it will accelerate energy supply decline, which will trigger a cascade of other problems that further reduce energy availability and affordability.

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/03/07/a-fatally-repeated-misunderstanding/

    In 1927, the market price of coal spiked. As is the way with events like this, a scapegoat was easily found. Welsh coal miners had been on strike for most of the previous year, helping to create a global shortage. There was though, a deeper and potentially existential cause – the peak of coal-based coal production.

    Although oil was rapidly replacing coal as the primary energy source in the USA, the rest of the world’s economies were as dependent upon coal as they had been half-a-century before. And even America was reliant enough on coal for the price spike to translate into an economic slowdown… which was a serious problem in an economy which had been experiencing the debt-based “roaring twenties,” during which almost everyone came to believe that the economy could only grow, and that tomorrow was bound to be better than today.

    Economic historians remind us in lurid detail what happened next. As the economy slowed, the value of assets fell short of expectations. Millions of people who had borrowed to invest suddenly found themselves with assets which were worth less than the debt they needed to repay. For a while they stuck it out, hoping that growth would return, and values would be restored. Until, in October 1929, the big players began to cut their losses. The Wall Street Crash turned paper millionaires into paupers overnight and paved the way for the Great Depression which saw millions of Americans – and later, millions around the world – reduced to penury.

    The road out of depression was far worse, involving global industrial warfare which decimated cities and economies, leaving more than 80 million corpses in its wake… but the US arms industry had a good war. And sadly, among the wealthy and the powerful, the erroneous conclusion that “war is good” was easily drawn.

    So, here’s a thought experiment – what would have happened in the 1930s if there was no such thing as oil?

    I wonder if Watkins occasionally lurks here?

    Maybe it was inevitable. A species which seemingly evolved to deny death and despair was able to treat oil reserves which it knew to be finite and consume them as if they would last forever… or at least until clever people somewhere else came up with an alternative. And yet even after global peak conventional oil had sent the global economy into a death spiral, we somehow managed to pretend all would turn out well, and that the final recoverable deposits of unconventional oil would somehow be infinite.

    How different might the post-war years – or even the last 16 years – have been if we had treated cheap oil as the temporary gift that we should have understood it to be?

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    1. Now that is kind of thrilling. A species which seemingly evolved to deny death and despair […] seems very specific. I wrote him a message via his contact page asking if he knows about MORT and if he sees it as important or not. I will post the response if I get one.

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    2. That is a brilliant piece by Tim Watkins and should be compulsory reading by everyone. However he seems to undo all his better work by putting out pieces like his very next one only 6 hours later, where his last sentence ….”Because none of the establishment parties of 2024 is leading us anywhere other than to collapse and chaos.”…..

      Tries to make out that changes of government policy could lead to somewhere other than collapse and chaos. Like most people, he still has an element of denial of where we are heading. Policies and changes of rules, laws, funding by politicians cannot prevent the collapse and chaos coming. All they can do is change who is better off and worse off in the lead up to collapse.

      What he does miss, in the article you linked to, was that during the depression years, we did have increasing oil use and more autos world wide, plus a young population. The next collapse when oil decline accelerates year after year, has an old population in the developed world, plus nothing energy wise in the background to give any promise of growth. Then we add the debt of governments plus corporations and the young with mortgages, debt is multiples higher than during the late ’20s…err late 1920’s.

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      1. Thats a great point about Watkins still being attached to the political system. I’ve seen some big collapse names make the same mistake in certain interviews. Dennis Meadows, Joseph Tainter, and Sid Smith just to name a few. It boggles my mind how you could be so aware of everything that matters and yet still have some type of faith in politics.

        Peter Joseph beat that faith out of me years ago by focusing on how nothing can or will change until the “system” changes.

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        1. I don’t think Tim is really attached to the political system, I get the impression he just enjoys writing about it, and pointing out how dumb they are.

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      2. It’s tough to be collapse aware and not occasionally lapse into denial on something.

        Pretty much everyone does it from time to time including me.

        The farm I assist is 17 km away which is going to be a problem when I’m 70 with no gasoline. I bought an e-bike for this but how long will the battery last? Will the battery still be good when there’s no gas?

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        1. No doubt you are correct Rob. I am certainly guilty of straying once in a while to embarrassing hopium solutions that are not based in reality. But the politics thing seems way more unforgivable to me. This late in the game and smart people still think it matters who gets elected?

          And since everything is getting worse over time, its just the same old cycle every four years. Red candidate gets elected, 4 years later blue, then red, then blue, etc. And maybe a rare two terms because your opposition that year was so incompetent, or you are just really good in front of the tv cameras….. Ok, I’ll shut up about politics. Sorry.

          And funny Rob. I just got a vision of 75-year-old you on the ebike getting bullied by some mad max biker gang in our apocalypto future.

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        3. Rob,
          I assume you have some way to charge your e-bike? How about in those dark cold months in BC? By the time we run out of fuel, we probably won’t have any large grid left either. Inquiring minds want to know 😬.
          AJ

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      3. I think a consistent point that he takes in all of his writing is that although the future looks bleak, the leadership in the UK is incompetent and corrupt and at least if they had better leadership they could ameliorate some of the suffering that’s coming.
        AJ

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  16. During the State of the Union Address, Biden said that Putin will not stop at Ukraine.
    This may explain some of his administration’s behavior.
    Our leaders seem to think that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he will be emboldened and invade other countries (i.e. NATO members such as Poland and the Baltic states).

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    1. Sometimes I think their obsession with Russia is an excuse to not think about or discuss all the other big issues they should be working on, like building a softer landing zone, and decreasing the size of the debt bomb.

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  18. Fun time wasting video proving our species has been able to understand complex topics since we emerged, or at least as soon as there was enough surplus wealth to permit full time thinking.

    Yet we are unable to see or understand simple ideas like limits to growth.

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    1. It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.
      -Upton Sinclair

      That among many other reasons.

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  19. The quality of Martenson’s work is going downhill. Seems to be desperate for clicks and subscribers.

    Today’s “deep dive” into the European farmer protests doesn’t even cover the basics:
    1) What are the policies being protested?
    2) What do the farmers want?

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    1. I find it interesting that Chris bought a farm to be able to survive the collapse or whatever reason, yet doesn’t seem to be able to produce enough food from his farm to sell to pay the bills. Needing income from his subscribers to survive is not going to work after the collapse, so then what.

      He was much better pointing out the big picture and problems before he had a subscriber based channel. Now he needs to cater to these people, which he would pick up from the comments on his subscriber only forum. such a shame that the reality of needing to earn income to pay taxes, and buy the toys he uses in his broadcasting etc, means outside income or bust.

      To me Chris is the classic example of someone that gets the big picture, still has a bit of denial, but must partake in human overshoot to survive in the modern world.

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  20. Alice Friedemann today discusses the fragility of microelectronics.

    My computer is my main hobby. I think I have enough spare parts to keep my computer running until I’m dead and I have plenty of offline content so I don’t need the internet.

    https://energyskeptic.com/2024/book-review-of-chip-war-and-the-fragility-of-microchips/

    We have become insanely dependent on technology that can’t possibly outlast fossil fuels, and indeed, is likely to hiccup and produce fewer chips as power outages, wars, earthquakes, financial crashes, pandemics and more disrupt the most precise, complex, and amazing technology that has ever existed, the pinnacle of human invention. Here are just a few examples of disruptions mentioned in the book:

    Consider that “our production of computing power depends fundamentally on a series of choke points: tools, chemicals, and software that often are produced by a handful of companies—and sometimes only by one.

    No other facet of the economy is so dependent on so few firms. Chips from Taiwan provide 37% of the world’s new computing power each year. Two Korean companies produce 44% of the world’s memory chips. The Dutch company ASML builds 100% of the world’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, without which cutting-edge chips are simply impossible to make,

    The global network of companies that annually produces a trillion chips at nanometer scale is a triumph of efficiency. It’s also a staggering vulnerability. The disruptions of the pandemic provide just a glimpse of what a single well-placed earthquake could do to the global economy. Taiwan sits atop a fault line that as recently as 1999 produced an earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale. Thankfully, this only knocked chip production offline for a couple of days. But it’s only a matter of time before a stronger quake strikes Taiwan.

    A devastating quake could also hit Japan, an earthquake-prone country that produces 17% of the world’s chips, or Silicon Valley, which today produces few chips but builds crucial chipmaking machinery in facilities sitting atop the San Andreas Fault.

    Here are just a few Amazing Facts that boggle my mind:

    – Apple sold over 100 million iPhone 12s, each powered by an A14 processor chip with 8 billion tiny transistors carved into its silicon. In a matter of months for just one of the dozen chips in an iPhone, TSMC’s Fab 18 fabricated well over 1 quintillion transistors—that is, a number with 18 zeros behind it.
    – We know how to print single layers of atoms.
    – Today, advanced chips possess tiny, three-dimensional transistors, each smaller than a coronavirus, measuring a handful of nanometers (billionths of a meter) wide.
    – It was only 60 years ago that the number of transistors on a cutting-edge chip wasn’t 11.8 billion, but 4 in 1961.

    All of it dependent on fossil fuels from A to Z in its life cycle. As energy declines, so will chip manufacturing and the thousands of products containing chips — what electronic vehicles or device doesn’t have them?

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    1. I like Alice (who I had never heard of prior to this site). These are the type of articles that get me thinking about Rob’s “the peak of what is possible in the universe”.

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    2. Consumer electronics will get a lot more expensive in the coming years. I don’t see them going away entirely in the next few decades (unless we have a very steep collapse), but I think it will be the end of getting a new phone every two years.

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  21. POB exchange today.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-energy-outlook-and-tight-oil-update-february-2024/#comment-771631

    HHH:

    Price is low due to Japan, Germany, UK, China, New Zealand and others being in a recession.

    Banks globally are going to take a hit to their balance sheets due to CRE loans because it’s not just US banks that are exposed to the issue. It’s actually hard to find a major economy in which the banks don’t have a huge amount of underwater collateral on their balance sheets because central banks hiked interest rates and currently don’t have the political cover to cut interest rates to fix the problem because inflation has been the issue.

    Buckle up because by the time central banks do finally cut rates it will be far too little too late and we will be in a crisis instead of recession by that point.

    The money curves aren’t wrong. They can just take longer to play out than everyone thinks.

    If prices go low enough OPEC will be forced to end their production cuts which will send prices even lower. OPEC has to have revenues in order to support their economies. Cuts will likely be abandoned as revenue falls.

    And of course revenues fall as the world goes into crisis due to underwater collateral.

    EULENSPIEGEL:

    I don’t buy it.

    There is enough money on the market. The USA is issuing additional collateral (= new debt) as there is no new morning.

    There is enough money to shoot Bitcoin and NVidia and Tech into the stratosphere – and for example in India the economy is growing strong. Not doom everywhere.

    Financial construct is getting more complex everywhere, that’s normal.

    And the oil market is small compared to these financial rivers – 3 trillion a year, and much of it is consumed internally not hitting any market.

    It’s US CTAs that are betting bull and bear to make the price – and this is on margin at the future market, so they need even less money. A fistful of billions are enough to move the oil price from here to there.

    NVidia alone is trading almost 50 billion $ a day – this market is bigger than the oil market. Brent future market is 100 million barrel , 8 billion $ a day. Only rough numbers, only to compare the size.

    HHH:

    The collateral I was referring to isn’t treasury debt. It’s the actual property that backs the loans on CRE.

    Only way to make the banks whole is get interest rates back to zero and do it fast before the ship sinks.

    There will however be hoarding of treasury debt collateral as the CRE ship sinks and everyone runs to safety and liquidity.

    It’s not the amount of money or collateral that’s is the problem. It’s the circulation of money, collateral, credit that will be the issue.

    You can bailout banks and save deposits but that doesn’t mean the banks will be in position to circulate the money.

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  22. It’s fascinating that so many overshoot and pharma crime aware people deny climate change.

    My guess is that when you understand that all of the climate change policies currently in place will not help, and in many cases, with make the situation worse, it is natural to assume that climate change itself is a hoax.

    Today Dmitry Orlov, who I used to respect, today tells us that global warming causes CO2 to rise, and not the other way around. Global warming is occurring because the core of the earth is getting hotter, as are other planets, possibly due to the muon-neutrino flux.

    Something happened in outer space that is causing planets to warm up. We can be absolutely certain that CO2 emissions have nothing to do with global warming.

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    1. Fascinating is not what I would call it. Some people can be aware of some things and quite logical about them and then in absolute denial about other things. Mostly I think climate denial is a “tribe” thing with Libertarians and Republicans being the worst; while Democrats think that green energy will solve climate change.
      Both being oblivious to the fact that we’re in overshoot and energy is running out. Denial in action.

      AJ

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  23. Sorry to intrude, but I have a personal question for anyone who would care to answer. Have you ever thought about creating your own Medium or Substack page? A lot of you have the writing skills (names that come to mind immediately are Gaia, Charles, Rob, Hideaway, Mike, but there are many more of you). I’ve considered it, but I always talk myself out by saying “we dont need another collapse asshole writing the same damn stuff as everyone else”.

    And if I ever gave it a try, it would not be for any monetary purpose (I would bet that even the great “B” makes very little money doing this). My only motivation would be to wake people up and spread the word, but that’s not entirely truthful. The main driver, I’m afraid, would end up being more about the dopamine rush of people “liking” your stuff (disgusting that that is probably true. And its even more unhealthy than the standard monetary motivation).

    But I would not enjoy the pressure and limitation of coming up with and only focusing on one new article every week. Thats why I think Rob’s site is so brilliant. I much prefer being able to interact daily with like-minded people about lots of subjects. Just curious if anyone else had ever thought about trying the medium/substack route.

    Chris

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    1. I’ve had occasional thoughts along those lines (and may even have accounts) but, to do it justice, I’d probably have to do a lot of research for each post but I just don’t have the time to do that. You never know, though, I may eventually get just about everything done on my land that I have on my list and can relax a bit more.

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    2. Most writers shunned by the mainstream use Substack. The platform seems good if you want to focus on writing and possibly collect some subscription fees for the effort. There are many un-Denial features enabled by WordPress that would not be possible on Substack. WordPress costs about $100 per year, Substack I think is free minus a commission from your subscriptions.

      If you have something to say you should write. But don’t do it for the fame, there is litle, even for the best writers like B. I do it (now that I know MORT won’t change the world) because it feels good to see in print what I believe is true, and to show the universe that a few monkeys understand how bad we are screwing up. I also enjoy the company in the comments section.

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      1. Ya maybe someday. And it would probably be with Medium because Substack seems too professional for my taste. Regarding motivation, once again you put in much better words than I did: “to show the universe that a few monkeys understand how bad we are screwing up”. I think that’s more truthful for me than “to wake people up and spread the word”.

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    3. I’m another one that has thought of writing his own blog, but every week or so would be just too much. I also like the way Rob runs this site, way better than I could ever do. When I saw him asking for any posts, that was good enough for me. I can get my thoughts out without the pressure of writing something every week.

      I have no idea how ‘B’ does it week after week, though he is relatively new to the ‘doomsphere’ so still fresh in his journey of discovery. I’ve noticed recently how Gail Tverberg is struggling to come up with something new and often takes more than a week after the 20 days for comments are up, before posting something new and she has been posting once a month for years. Once a month is much more possible than every week on a long term basis.

      I suspect my comment up thread about Tim Watkins making one great post then the next sort of blaming politicians is as much about having to write something newish for his subscribers as much anything else. likewise for a lot of others with similar blogs. Trying to make money out of the doom blogosphere like Chris Martenson would have to be a mugs game. IMHO Chris is hurting his reputation by trying to live of doom and collapse.

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      1. I’m very grateful that many of you have contributed guest essays. I’ve said most of what I want to say. You keep the site fresh and interesting.

        I don’t want to be like Tim Morgan writing different versions of the same brilliant essay hundreds of times.

        We’re going to need a new essay soon. Anyone got anything you want to say?

        Maybe one of the farmer/homesteaders here might want to share a few key lessons learned and what you would do different next time?

        Or we could tackle that complilation of stories on how we each became aware and why our denial gene is broken?

        Or Hideaway could finish his magnum opus on non-fossil energy?

        Or?

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        1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/07/ai-data-centers-power/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3cfd8a0%2F65e9f6ed0fa79a3a2e7f89b2%2F64beaccd4dae0764a1d832e9%2F8%2F54%2F65e9f6ed0fa79a3a2e7f89b2

          Have been unusually busy these past few weeks, but am still working on the draft for what a local wise community might do. As I mentioned, I’m no writer. Will send to you in rough form soon.

          Meanwhile, thought this news bit would confirm the clueless and uncoordinated nature of the march to the precipice.

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      2. I’m beginning to think B is a top-of-the-line A.I. machine.

        Watkins/Martenson (both I dont follow), I’m sure you are correct. Eventually you run out of good material and are forced to start catering to your viewers. It’s not sustainable (lol). Ya, once a month seems much more doable.

        And I agree that Rob’s guest essay bit is genius. He doesn’t have to come up with everything, and the audience gets to experiment with their own ideas. win/win

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          1. Ya, I’ve heard this sentiment come up before. I dont know where I stand on it. The trust factor has never been so low, I can’t blame him. (his bank account getting frozen, which was always a crack pot paranoia thing, is now more believable to me)

            On the whole, of course using real names is way more positive than negative. So yes, it’s selfish, uncourageous and the wrong side to be on. But I get it.

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            1. I imagine there is a fair chance that B feels he may lose his engineering job for his radical views. There is little chance of being canceled if people don’t know who you are. To be honest even though there are names to people on this blog, you are all still anonymous to me. I have no way to really prove you are who you say you are so I am fine with B’s position. I actually think he can say more from this position.

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                1. Dangit. I have no will power to shut my mouth. I agree Rob. It sucks. And I dont even know what to call it…. The worst possible way to do something? The most unhealthy, unproductive, inefficient, destructive way to do something? Everything we do is along those lines and I’m so tired of it. Or numb from it might be more accurate.

                  Yesterday I watched the newest Sid Smith yt video again. I love his bit about “Malthus could not have foreseen what kind of species we were about to become”. It got me looking at my table (yellow picture at bottom of essay). The brand-new energy sources and 2% on the farm are obviously what he is talking about. Throw in everything about this digital age era and our lifestyle is so unrecognizable from anytime in earths history.

                  It is long overdue to change the name sapien. Weve already updated the word Holocene to Anthropocene (Derek Jensen has a more accurate term “Sociocene”). And I’ve seen something about the new term for modern humans being “homo sapien sapien” (What? we are gonna just double down on the whole “wise man” thing. That is pathetically inaccurate and unoriginal). Would be nice if we could finally be honest and name ourselves something more fitting. A phrase that conveys high intelligence / low wisdom, extreme human supremacy, with an obsessive wastefulness of the most powerful energy source in the universe.

                  Sorry for rambling, in a bad mood for some reason. Going to bed.

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      3. Agreed. Interesting reference to the 20 day limit for Gail’s site. I always thought it was some kind of comment number limit as the comments were usually around 3,000 on each post. However, I just checked, and the comments are less than 2,500. So it probably is a 20 day limit, it’s just that the absence of Fast Eddy has drastically reduced the number of comments.

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        1. Gail said she does 20 days so that comments stop and she doesn’t have to answer and can concentrate on finishing the next post.

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    4. I feel grateful to Rob: I had things, which had slowly sedimented over the years, to let go of and share with people who would genuinely listen.
      However, I personally wouldn’t create a substack. If I want do things at the level of quality I aim for, without exhausting myself, I have to focus on a few aspects of life and let go of others.
      I come here to relax myself: for the community, news update and some popcorn.

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    1. I think AI in the short term will make an even bigger mess of social media, mistrust, and divisiveness, but I’m not so worried about other impacts of AI.

      Our mountain of debt and the end of growth due to energy depletion is the bomb that will probably blow up the AI dream, and the bitcoin dream, and the WEF/WHO dream, and the EV dream, and energy transition dream.

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      1. I just think AI is the new hype. Correct me if I’m wrong, but AI is just a large language model of programming that attempts to simulate learning/thought through language. Indeed, language is the mechanism that our brains evolved to convey the internal processes of our brain to other brains. As it is, we all know that it, language, is wildly imperfect. Hence the need for a vast vocabulary and volumous writing to attempt to convey the internal state of thought, memory, reason, that the brain accomplishes.
        So to me, AI does not represent thought, but represents some attempt to replicate language that represents thought. The proponents of AI attempt to pass it off as thinking/reasoning when they have no clue as to how any brain, even the simplest, accomplishes that ability. Evolution and deep time have created brains and no programmer with even the most sophisticated chips will be able to simulate that effectively. AI by my definition is hubris on steroids.
        AJ

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        1. You might enjoy the most recent Lex Fridman interview. His guest echoes what you say in a different way. Most of our learning is through vision, and to a lesser extent touch. The data rates of these channels is a gazzilion times larger than language. A year old baby has processed more data than the best AI.

          I think he believes these problems with AI can be solved however I don’t think he’s collapse aware.

          A comment I liked in the interview: “A teenager can learn to drive in a couple hours. AI’s still can’t drive after many years of training.”

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  25. Recycling this paraphrased exchange because I like it and it says so much about our predicament:

    Nate Hagens: “We’ll have 50% less oil by 2050 which means we’re screwed.”

    Kevin Anderson: “We need to use zero oil before 2050 or we’re screwed.”

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      1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Between_Scylla_and_Charybdis

        Being between Scylla and Charybdis is an idiom deriving from Greek mythology, which has been associated with the proverbial advice “to choose the lesser of two evils”.[1] Several other idioms, such as “on the horns of a dilemma”, “between the devil and the deep blue sea”, and “between a rock and a hard place” express similar meanings.[2] The mythical situation also developed a proverbial use in which seeking to choose between equally dangerous extremes is seen as leading inevitably to disaster.

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  26. Following is the reply I got from Tim Watkins when I asked him if he knows about MORT and if he sees it as important for understanding our predicament. He was so kind to agree that I can to post it.

    I am aware of Ajit Varki and Danny Brower‘s Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory, Although I haven’t read the book.

    I came at the problem of denial from the opposite end, as it were, as a result of my earlier work with depression in the early-2000s.

    At the time there was some interest in the idea that, since depression exists in all cultures and in all historical periods, as well as being found in most mammal species, it must have served some evolutionary purpose. And one thing which appeared to unite a large proportion of people who experience depression was a high capacity for denial – often soldiering on in situations and circumstances which any rational person would walk away from. Depression, it appeared, was a kind of safety valve – the entire system, mental and physical, shutting down rather than waste more energy.
    With this in mind, when I began to look at why humans operate with high levels of irrational optimism – I often reference the belief that “clever people somewhere else” will solve whatever the problem is – it seemed obvious that we must have evolved that way, and that high levels of denial also have to serve an evolutionary purpose.

    Of interest, Tom Murphy, who writes the Do the Math blog did a survey some years ago looking at the various personality types which
    were overshoot-aware. It turned out that 38 percent were INTJ’s who make up just 2 percent of the population. This also suggests a genetic bias for denial among the other 98 percent.

    Murphy even gave up writing about it for a few years for the – likely correct – reason that hardly anyone was interested, and those who were probably already knew. My tack, in contrast, has been to intersperse my collapse-related posts with more immediately topical ones, mostly pointing out what a bunch of ineffectual gobshites we have at the helm. The hope being that new readers might be brought in by these more newsy or political posts.

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    2. Nice job Florian! That felt like deep undercover detective work you did. 😊

      And no mention of un-Denial. Of course, maybe he never heard of this site, but I’d like to know the odds of being aware of the book on your own and not from this website. Something tells me Rob is not exaggerating when he says he gets no love from the big names. He might be the Rodney Dangerfield of collapse.

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  27. Good afternoon,

    I hope everyone here are feeling well.

    After scouring the internet regarding various topics, plastics came into mind and what the “challenges” are besides energy for the “green transition”.

    “Bioplastics currently represent roughly 0.5 percent of the over 400 million tonnes of plastic produced annually”.

    Source:
    https://www.european-bioplastics.org/bioplastics-market-development-update-2023-2/

    In comparison, global fish production.

    “The volume of global fish production amounted to 186.6 million metric tons in 2023”

    Source:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/264577/total-world-fish-production-since-2002/

    Absolutely surreal.

    Kind regards,

    ABC

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  28. Hideaway’s got another epic thread going at POB. Here’s his side of the conversation. Go to POB for the other side. Comments by CARNOT are also very good.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-feb-28-2024/#comment-771559

    “Technology isn’t saving the planet it’s killing the planet”. Got it in one simple line. Shame so many here believe that technology can save everything when it’s human technology since first putting fire to use that is causing ecocide.

    Dennis, please note the number from your document about wind cost $32/Mwh, which is very close to the example of an actual wind farm I gave of $35M/Twh (2023).

    Also note that we are still getting energy from fossil fuels relatively much cheaper at $1.7M/Twh from both oil and gas in the 2020’s. However what is most important is that we built the system, all the longer lasting bits from mostly cheap energy in the past. As everything from bridges to the education of people from the past wears out (entropy) we need to replace it with ‘new’ much more expensive energy (say wind at $32/mwh).

    The background cost of energy embedded in the system is never counted in the EROEI calculations of the papers you and Nick G always refer to. They set boundaries to prove solar and wind are ‘good’. They are basically GIGO (garbage in, garbage out).

    The relative energy cost is irrelevant as civilization runs on an EROEI basis of somewhere between 6-20 to 1. If it tried to run on a lower number it wouldn’t and couldn’t work. Hunter gatherers had an EROEI of 1.5 which gave them some spare time. A lion doesn’t chase mice because the EROEI is too low.
    To run a civilization we have to have a large energy surplus from our energy sources to allow only a relatively few people be involved in the energy collection part of society while allowing teachers to teach, accountants to run numbers, lawyers to sue, etc etc,

    As oil, gas and coal deplete and the dollar and energy cost rises, then so also do all renewables and nuclear, as they are built from fossil fuels. We also have the double whammy of decreasing ore grades of everything (even iron ore) on average, meaning more energy used in building (everything!!).

    If all the $1.7M/Twh energy disappears, which it will do, then after a lag, (there is a lag because the scientists educated when energy was really cheap, eventually retire, so must be replaced by new scientists educated by much more expensive energy, plus the bridges, the excavators, the factories themselves), there will be less of everything because of less cheap energy to make any of it happen..

    It doesn’t matter about the relativities, it’s the absolute energy that counts, which is why Lazard’s LCOE work is all useless. Solar, wind and nuclear can’t get cheaper than fossil fuels when they are made by and totally rely upon fossil fuels for their operation, it’s not possible in terms of the laws of physics!!

    It’s one of the reasons I keep harping on about the building or making of ‘stuff’, starting with the simple like Aluminium smelters running off grid on their own renewable energy. They simply can’t if they want to remain competitive. The next point on aluminium smelters I was going to get into was how the equipment inside needs to be made from just solar and wind, plus the trucks that transport both the bauxite and the final product and the mining etc, etc.

    We have a total system we call civilization, that runs on cheap energy provided by fossil fuels, all the so called replacements are in fact just derivatives of fossil fuels, they don’t exist nor can they be built without fossil fuels. Nor is anyone anywhere even trying to build any of it without the use of fossil fuels!!

    Thank you Dennis, as you have highlighted the reasoning behind the cornucopian argument being the ‘relative cost’. Because the ‘relative cost’ has come down with some fancy accounting in the LCOE calculations (like adding CCUS to coal), it all sounds doable. However please note that when fossil fuels all went up in cost in 2021-2, so did the cost of renewables.
    The assumption is of course that renewables will continue to get cheaper, how about you question that assumption given lower ore grades at mines meaning more energy needed to do the mining, or perhaps the higher cost of replacing bridges all the trucks need to use, using the no longer cheap energy?

    It’s the absolute cost of energy that counts, giving enough extra energy to run our civilization, not the relative difference between fossil fuels and renewables/nuclear that counts. When fossil fuels get to expensive on an EROEI basis our civilization will not be possible, we are rapidly heading that way. This is strictly the physics argument, ignoring every other problem we have caused by our overshoot..

    Dennis, you continue to point to papers that rely on statements like this…

    ” As the technology matures, necessary embodied energy for the technology will be affected56 by the improvements in material types and innovations in processes. Thus, ongoing technology improvement on CED values holds a significant position in dynamic EROI analysis. Particularly, for PV and battery the interpretation of CED values by using average energy learning rates (ELR) ensures to reflect their future technological improvements.”

    Yet reference (56) states this …..”Lower financial production costs should correlate with lower values of embodied energy.”

    That’s great, because currently the embedded cost of renewables and nuclear is way above the fossil fuel cost we built the system of civilization with, and your reference relies totally upon the continued technology and material improvements into the future, to get to where is needed.

    Every single paper you point to has the same assumption with no evidence any of it can happen once we get into an environment of constantly falling total energy production when oil production decline accelerates to the downside. They all assume everything ‘else’ continues as normal, a very stupid assumption.. None of them assume reality of continuing lower ore grades for every ‘material’ requiring MORE energy to extract them..

    Once again I’ll go back to real world numbers, that correspond with LCOE from Lazards for wind and solar current costs. (For Alimbiquated, it’s the total cost of setting up the system and running it, not just the solar panel price).

    Saudi oil, refined into products, $1.7M/Twh, it’s a lower cost before refining!!!
    A small gas project with gas processed and into pipeline, including cost for pipelines to consumers $1.7M/Twh
    Kogan Creek power station $9M/Twh
    Mt Gellibrand Wind Farm $34M/Twh with ZERO backup!!
    New England Solar Farm $35M/Twh includes 30 MINUTES battery backup!!
    Hinkley PC nuclear $66M/Twh assuming it doesn’t go higher!!

    Each of the above are real world costs, with wind, solar and nuclear ongoing operating and maintenance costs coming from the industries own numbers (so probably low!!)

    The above reference of yours clearly states ” Lower financial production costs should correlate with lower values of embodied energy” meaning, that higher production costs have higher embodied energy cost, which makes perfect sense..

    The entire point of the renewables and nuclear argument is that the prices of these energy forms will get cheaper into the future, eventually going below fossil fuel costs as those costs rise. In other words it’s the ‘relative’ argument which is nonsense.

    Both wind and solar today are 20 times higher energy cost than the cheap oil and gas that we built the system with. We still have a small amount of it left, as per the above numbers.
    Do you really think that solar, wind plus the appropriate backup will get to 5% of the current energy cost of building them?? I don’t, as we have made all the easy improvements, which is why they are so much cheaper than 20 years ago. However just being a fraction of the cost of 20 years ago, by itself tells us nothing about the energy cost of building them.

    In the real world over the last 20 years the energy from fossil fuel use has gone up by 10 times the increase in solar and wind energy during the same period.
    Renewables are not replacing anything when we look at the big picture.
    Sure in the west we can shut down the odd coal power station, while the places that produce all the equipment needed to build renewables (mostly China) open up 2 or 3 new ones to build everything in their society including the factories to make the ‘stuff’ we use in the West. (Building the civilization including schools, hospitals etc is part of the energy cost of getting solar and wind from China, something none of the papers you refer to ever cover!!

    Extra Aluminium will be needed for the extra solar panels to be built in the future. A new large smelter is the one planned by Adaro in Borneo, using coal fired power to do it. So once again I’ll ask you, should Adaro burn the coal to power the new smelter or should they erase a few hundred thousand acres of tropical rainforest to place enough solar panels for the operation??
    I say neither. That means less aluminium available for solar panels and everything else.

    My point being it’s an entire system with everything interrelated, solar and wind are 4 times the cost of fairly new coal fired power right now, and probably much higher if we built simple, inefficient, very polluting coal power stations, like the ones of old. Plus the intermittency adds a huge energy cost in the building the batteries or pumped hydro or whatever. They are also 20 times the price of refined oil products from cheap Saudi wells, or gas in consumers hands.

    The answer provided by every single research paper written by Cornucopians is that ‘people in the future will figure it out with better (cheaper) technology and materials’.

    Dennis, I’ve asked this before, could you do some real world numbers on this bright green future, instead of pointing to papers the whole time that are mostly full of GIGO. The above numbers I’ve given are real world, anyone can go and check them if they are prepared to do the research. If you think they are way out, then prove it with a real world example or 2.

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    1. Our energy oracle is hard at work again trying to explain how screwed we really are (must be exhausting being this smart).

      I just spent an hour on that site and I am completely wiped out. Surprisingly, I was able to comprehend most of what I read.

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    1. You should feel better now, I gave it a like.

      I’m also very unpopular on X. Even the porn bots have stopped following me. Not sure if I’ve been shadow banned for my promotion of String Theory, or if it’s just the usual dislike of doomers.

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      1. A few hours later, unable to handle the cognitive dissonance of the most simple truth:

        PS. That was satire, Sabine likely never saw my reply.

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    2. This is something that most people don’t seem to grasp, as they promote the savings from this or that technology. The savings aren’t going to be thrown away and will be spent on something else. That something else will involve emissions. Depending on what the savings get spent on, the best we can say is that any reductions in emissions will be way less than hoped for.

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      1. If “economic multiplier effect” applies (it does), then “way less” becomes close-enough-to-zero.

        It is therefore impossible to spend revenue from “carbon taxes” without causing more carbon emissions.

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        1. It might work if you implemented a high and steeply progressive income + capital tax so that rich and poor could not afford to heat their homes, and then use a portion of the collected taxes to send long underwear, toques, and down quilts to every home.

          The balance of the collected taxes would be used to pay down government debt to reduce the size of the degrowth bomb, and to subsidize local food production.

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            1. A lot of government debt will be QE money “printed” by the central bank. Pay down only the central bank debt. When paid back that money simply vaporizes and causes no extra spending but does reduce the size of the bomb.

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              1. The “vaporizes” applies only to the principal, not the interest that is due because money is created with interest already due. The U.S.A. is ‘creating’ a trillion every 4 months – the economy will collapse immediately and emphatically if this stops. It is too late to even think about paying down the principal when the interest is already becoming unaffordable. Default, is the only option, likely hidden by all out war.

                The irony is that it was an arbitrary decision to issue money with interest – burdening future generations with a built-in need for an expanding population and economy and energy demand. There was never a real ‘need’ for money to be issued with interest.

                I think it was Tim Watkins that recently pointed out that a ‘steady state’ economy in the west is impossible – it has to constantly expand, forever.

                At the non federal debt level. If I buy something from a local baker, butcher, cobbler, plumber, car mechanic, etc. then they have three choices :
                – spend it. Causes energy consumption.
                – save it. Bank will lend it out. Causes energy consumption.
                – pay taxes. Government has already spent it. Causes energy consumption.

                Paying down the principal part of debt (in theory) causes a reduction in money in circulation (deflation) – but that increases the value of the money that remains (I understand you disagree with me on this last part).

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                1. We are going to collapse no matter what we do. Is there is anything we can to to reduce the suffering on the way down and to make the destination a little better?

                  I think taxing excess wealth from the rich and using it to pay down government principle might help.

                  Maybe you or others have better ideas?

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                  1. If you took everything from the wealthy, to pay down the national debts (presumably of all countries) – the small fly in the soup, is the need to find buyers. Where do those buyers (and their money) come from?

                    Selling everything (at the same time) is impossible – only the first gets to go through the door.

                    I cannot even find levity. The thing that angers me is that Hagens, Bendell, Hossenfelder, and numerous polymaths all seem to pretend this is not an issue.

                    ARE THEY OUT OF THEIR FREAKING MINDS????

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                    2. “What do you think should be done?”

                      The only things that make even a small amount of sense are (currently) profoundly immoral and illegal. Derrick Jensen would understand.

                      I don’t have children. I recycle. I minimize my car use. I haven’t flown in over 15 years. My thermostat is set at 60F (winter heating) and I minimize my use of air conditioning in the summer (run it at 4AM when the outside air is coolest).

                      At the individual level, all of the above achieves close to nothing. As Mike pointed out above – reducing expenditure achieves little, because the money just gets spent elsewhere (or saved, or taxed – different routes to same destination).

                      If an individual chooses to work less, the work simply gets done by someone else, this applies in both self employed and employee contexts.

                      So individuals and groups are ineffectual. At a nation state level, a big country like the U.S.A. could “shut down”, other economies (especially China and Europe) would likely implode shortly thereafter. It is not going to happen through choice.

                      What would a wise group do – follow everything suggested by Nicole Foss at Voices For Freedom (New Zealand).

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                    3. I’m also trying to live light like you. I know it won’t make a difference but it’s the right thing to do. I also like that my lifestyle won’t have to change as much when things unravel which means I may be able to enjoy the remainder of my life a little more than people that are shocked with high expectations.

                      I really like Nicole Foss. I saw her speak live once in Vancouver. Do you know if she is well and has written anything recently?

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                    4. From time to time, I check to see if she’s posted anything on X but she hasn’t posted anything since the end of November, and that’s quite odd in this US election year, as she’s dead against Trump and has reposted, posted or replied to Trump related stuff frequently. I also checked for her on Mastodon and BlueSky (though I’m not as famiiar with those platforms) but found nothing. I hope she’s OK.

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                    5. Thanks for the update. The election of Trump caused both Nicole Foss and Gail Zawacki to go a little crazy. They could talk about nothing else. I think they were/are worried about what collapse will do to female equality and rights, and they saw Trump as accelerating those losses.

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                    6. Dear Rob & Hamish McGregor,

                      I hope you are well.

                      An interesting and fruitful discussion. (As always)

                      A). Hamish Mcregor,

                      can you elaborate on the solutions?

                      ”The only things that make even a small amount of sense are (currently) profoundly immoral and illegal. Derrick Jensen would understand.”

                      Kind and warm regards,

                      ABC

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                    7. Hi Hamish,

                      I am not sure I understand your points. Probably because I am not versed enough in economics.

                      I am not sure I agree with the fact that individuals and groups are ineffectual. Here are some examples of what I think is possible and effective, even slightly (some of which are legal, some less, but the legal system is a “soft”-constraint :):
                      * turn their back from the system : i.e. get rid of money all together (pay-back their debt if they can, some other solution if they can’t),
                      * get as much land as possible and live as small as possible, leaving the rest to nature
                      * stop using machines, the grid, car, etc.
                      * have few or no children
                      * influence (without getting trapped/assimilated which is quite hard) and resist the system actively if necessary (these, I believe fall in the “solutions” Derrick Jensen would understand or The Monkey Wrench Gang by Edward Abbey approach or the movie “woman at war”) I feel this should be done peacefully and while thinking about the consequences on other lives
                      I agree with the fact that this is difficult because the “power system” will not allow this, so there is a strategic fine line. Money, ultimately works as a leash (or a contract if you prefer) which ensures the scope of economic system.

                      At the nation state level, making the economy more local seems helpful to me. Shutting down power plants progressively too. Planning for less. Flying could be forbidden without any real economic impacts right away. Decentralization and reorganization of cities, the territory. Training people for manual activities. Stopping all new constructions. Making car ownership difficult. Stopping deforestation of primal forests at once. Growing conservation areas. Stopping industrial agriculture…
                      It’s all about peaceful voluntary progressive pre-emptive de-growth. Triage. An inversion of the metrics and goals.
                      About the financial system, negative interest rates, or progressive defaults, or maybe allow alternative local moneys, or … (I am not knowledgeable enough)
                      Anyway, a more brutal state approach could be to focus on feeding people only, (then maybe heating/insulating them), mass propaganda towards life regeneration, while actively monitoring the whole ecology. Everything else would be a bonus: having a child a privilege, using machines…
                      Anyway, meaningful activities are inherently “free”.

                      I find, we are blocked mainly because of :
                      * the ones who are (willingly) unaware and want to party on
                      * the ones who are aware but don’t want to let go (of power, wealth, status…). At this point I do not see many people in power setting an example (or maybe they are just not being publicized?)
                      * the ones who are aware but for whom it is difficult to think outside well-traveled mental pathways
                      * the ones who are aware but have counter-productive ideas (I include myself in this group, this is after all a “wicked” problem. That’s why I do not believe in centrally planned, authoritarian approaches. This is something for everyone by everyone.)

                      I agree, this is not easy because there are conflicting interests and the line between minimizing suffering and making it worse is at this point truly fine. But I wouldn’t say, absolutely nothing can be done. (within the current culture/mental framework, maybe, but this is a “soft”-constraint)

                      At some level, all of this, I am seeing already happening in France. People get it (even if many are entrenched). Which to me, is a further indication we are so close from the Wall (I remain a doomer 🙂

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                    8. About the work less: currently in France, some bus lines are not being run because of lack of drivers, similar problem at the hospital. In aging country, and despite very high immigration levels, not all workers are so easily replaced.
                      It’s still a market.
                      Didn’t the Roman empire ran out of slaves at some point?

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                    9. To Charles,
                      Everything you wrote is correct, until you :
                      – consider what happens next,
                      “Flying could be forbidden without any real economic impacts right away. ”
                      What happens to the money that would have been spent on air tickets, hotels, car rental, etc.?
                      What happens to all the pilots, flight crew, hospitality workers, et al?

                      consider the prerequisites,
                      “get as much land as possible and live as small as possible, leaving the rest to nature”
                      Property taxes still need to be paid. The land owner needs to keep on working (hobby farm), or they did the work in the past (damage is already done) and the payment of property taxes causes more harm.

                      “Money, ultimately works as a leash …”
                      Yes. Even people that are ‘homeless’ typically cost their cities millions. There is no exit from this matrix. As discussed by others, even death is not free of cost to the world.

                      The system will not stop until it breaks. Then it will be a nightmare.

                      A prep that few talk about is ‘saving the last bullet’.

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                    10. To Hamish.

                      Would you say that’s what happened in prior empires’ falls (mayan, roman…)? Because, I was under the impression that the falls were hard, nightmarish in some ways (famine in cities, institutions becoming crazy…), but not impossibly hard to cope with.
                      Or would you say that’s specific to our current situation where the overshoot scales are incomparably worst?

                      I understand your argument about money. I just don’t understand why the system could not be made to morph gradually (money included => meaning going to local moneys and decoupling from the monolith).
                      I will make one last proposition, related to something I am seeing happening in France: have inflation increase the price of food more quickly than the rest of goods, so that people try to make/save money by growing food. In other words, align the drive for money (our belief system), with the necessity (the reality).

                      Also, would you agree the impossibility to change the system is due to our collective nature (denial, aggressivity and all), rather than to hard constraints?
                      What I mean is: there are so much useless stuffs in our lives that I don’t see why a progressive de-growth could not be managed (in theory at least). Even at this point. (I am not talking about biodiversity loss/climate change, just the economic aspect: one thing after the other 🙂

                      I see that most nations are still pursuing growth and debt and all (even though, most people on the ground are more reasonable). So it means it may be not possible. So, you are probably right.
                      However that’s still really not my feeling 🙂 I rather feel that, when needed, people and organisations will make choices and do things we could not believe possible just a few years ago. (Close borders, get out of international trade, collectivise, encourage/enforce internal migrations to reorganize, etc…). Humans are pretty good at shifting modes brutally and making new normals.

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      2. This is why some form of de-growth is necessary. De-growth will happen whether we like it or not, but if we de-grow voluntarily, we can have a softer landing.

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        1. I agree that some type of very deliberate degrowth is the only way to reduce the hardship and damage that rapid ‘limits imposed’ degrowth would/will cause.

          However humans have been wired for growth for thousands of years. basically if your ‘tribe’ didn’t continue to get larger, then other tribes would grab all your resources at your expense. In today’s civilized world we have borders and rules for our citizens, but in the back of the mind of every government (and every other politician) is that unless you continue to grow, you are at risk of someone else taking your resources.
          We have no hope, without One World Government, of even starting degrowth. Without OWG we head straight over the Seneca cliff at some point in the near future.

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          1. I agree with most of your comment.

            I am not sure about the one world government (difficult for a central planning system not to become corrupt and dictatorial).

            I am not sure about the absolute necessity of maximum growth for tribes.
            I believe, at some point, it is more strategic for a tribe not to overshoot it’s resource base. Otherwise, this could also mean the end of the tribe. There is a fine line balance to achieve between various constraints. And always aiming for the maximum growth is not always the most optimum course of action (modern man has forgotten that because it has lived for too long in an environment where it was not necessary to get this fine-grained. Maybe that’s one reason Poutine seems smarter than some leaders in the west)

            In a degrowth world, a country does not necessarily have enough strength to invade a neighbour country. And the spoils of wars are not enough to make up for the losses (This notion even have a poetic name, a Pyrrhic victory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory)

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  33. If you like end of the world movies, this is one of my favorites. It is not an action movie. Made 25 years ago and still stands out for its originality. Free on yt.

    Last Night (1998) – a Canadian apocalyptic black comedy-drama.
    plot: In Toronto, a group of friends and family prepare for the end of the world, expected at midnight as the result of a calamity that is not explained, but which has been expected for several months.

    Rotten Tomatoes: An engrossing, poignant film, Last Night examines the end of the world through humorous and thought-provoking dialogue.

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    1. Good opinion piece. Again reinforcing my opinion that the grandchildren of the victims of genocide are now the perpetrators of genocide. And sadly my government leaders are complicit and enablers of that genocide. And even worse is that I have essentially no vote in subsequently leaders as both Biden, Trump, and RFK are all enablers of genocidal, Israel. I realize this is all evolution at work in creating tribes that see the other as less than human. The only thing we can do is use rational thought to override that programming.
      AJ

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    1. On some level you have to like Elon. He is like many polymaths; he can see some issues with crystal clarity and others he is totally blind to.
      AJ

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      1. I know many disagree with me but I think Elon is one of the few rich good guys, although he is a little crazy and in denial. Buying Twitter might have saved free speech. I’m hoping competitive pressures now force the other platforms to reduce censorship.

        If mainstream media is corrupt and incompetent, ignore and replace them.

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        1. You should see how much the upper middle class in New Zealand are crying over the demise of NewsHub/TV3. They even resort to name calling those of us who don’t care about NewsHub. Here’s a good example from a self-identifying “journalist”. He basically says only his class are worthy of having their opinions heard. Apologies for the profanity in his quote

          “I’ve been dismayed but not surprised at how many ‘reckons’ and hoots of delight there have been about the demise of NewsHub and media in general. Mostly the comments come from places of ignorance or just malice. Whatever, there have always been dickheads.

          As someone who tried incredibly hard to make publishing work, I feel qualified to have an opinion. Three points:

          a) The digital monoliths that have eaten media’s lunch have built alternative media empires without paying for content, without paying tax and without any (I mean ANY) accountability for the hateful, cynical and libelous content they publish. No traditional industry, be it media or otherwise, could compete with that level of state-sponsored favour.

          b) Journalism has always been a rebel sport and sits uncomfortably with mainstream marketing. So the Devil’s pact with the advertising industry has come to an end. Perhaps that’s a good thing. Currently there’s nothing to replace it as a business model, save the crumbs generated by individual subscriptions. The urgent need is to test and prove new revenue models. Meanwhile, if you want media to survive, pay for it. You personally. You as a company. You as a society. Crumbs might be enough to survive on for now.

          c) Be careful what you wish for. Maybe you don’t like media but have some sympathy FFS. Or at the very least STFU. In recent years hundreds have lost careers, families have lost incomes, and a whole industry of joyous, talented people is disappearing. And check your privilege. The march of digitisation, now fueled by AI, is coming to an industry near you. It’s unstoppable and disruptive – and what will you lose in the process? Your job, your craft, your society, your country?

          Media is at the forefront, but the current trajectory for all industries seems to be consolidation into digital monoliths, on platforms they own and control in unaccountable, unlocatable servers. I, for one, do not welcome our new trillionaire overlords.”

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            1. I love swearing, but I’m trying to be a bit more respectful in public 🙂
              Oh yea he’s a total vaccines, EVs, renewable energy government propaganda repeater.

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          3. I’ve never been a big fan of NZ news programmes but have always watched one or another primarily to get local news. I switched from TV3/Newshub, to TVNZ because I was getting fed up with magazine articles in the news and the increasing bias. I switched from TVNZ to Prime News for similar reasons and the fact that it was only half an hour. I realise it was back to Newshub programming but it was only half an hour. Not sure where to get my local TV news once Newshub goes. RNZ experimented with a TV/radio hybrid but I got fed up with their pushing te reo Maori in my face all the time (much worse than the others). So it looks like I’ll be online for local news.

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            1. Hopefully something better will come along soon 🙂 I gave up watching NZ news years ago because it is so cringy LOL

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  36. Reasonable chance JHK lurks here. Would be nice if he left the odd comment to say hello.

    https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/twilight-of-the-blobs/

    HG Wells concocted a marvelous trick ending to his classic tale The War of the Worlds (1897). Remember: the colossal Martian tripod “fighting machines” swarm all over the planet zapping cities with “heat rays”. . . it looks like all-is-lost . . . but finally the darn things just quit marching, stop zapping, and stand down . . . the alien protoplasms at the controls (surprise ending) turn up dead and rotting inside from the action of our tiny invisible allies: the earth’s one-celled, disease-causing bacteria, to which the Martian blob creatures have no immunity!

    The Gaian overtones in that story resound today as we Earthlings devise ingenious new methods to wreck terrestrial life, including ourselves. The planet seems to have some teleological drive to save itself, a kind of immune system. Notice: in all the ongoing debates about the wonders and dangers of A-I, and Bitcoin, and suffocating surveillance, nobody ever talks about the sketchy condition of the electric grid that all these worrisome phenomena utterly rely on. In our chatter over Peak Oil, there’s little awareness of oil production’s utter dependence on steady capital flows. In all the guff about centralized control emitted by Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum, there’s no mention of the centrifugal forces driving human affairs to re-localization, dis-aggregation of large states, and down-scaling of many activities. In our zeal to become Gods, we miss a lot.

    Imagine: Bitcoin shoots up to a million dollars. You’re a zillionaire! Uh Oh. . . somewhere outside Zanseville, Ohio, a squirrel takes a final chaw through some old insulation on a wire coming out of a transformer. His head blows up in a blue arc flash, and in a few seconds all the electricity goes out from Chicago to Boston. It turns out that seventeen substations in ten states have blown relays, transformers, and switchgear. Some of those components were forty years old and are now manufactured twelve thousand miles away in a country that doesn’t like us anymore. The replacement parts get held up in a Chinese port. The power doesn’t come back on for weeks. Nobody who lives in the eastern USA can get to his Bitcoin wallet, which is just a virtual entity made of computer code residing in a digital “cloud,” i.e., nowhere real.

    The bond market is based on the idea that borrowed money will be reliably paid back, the key word there being reliably. One crucial condition, though, is that money has to stay “money.” People have to regard it as possessing value. And now all kinds of money is visibly losing value. Approaching the $35-trillion mark in our national debt, there is reason to doubt that the USA can plausibly pay off its debt, or even service it anymore — that is, keep paying interest on it. The more money we “print” under MMT, the more value the money loses. The interest rate on the borrowed money has to go up to compensate for that loss of value, and all of a sudden you’re borrowing a shit-ton of money to pay the interest on the money you owe, the gross volume of which is only increasing . . . moving rapidly toward critical. . . . Uh-oh.

    Many sentient beings viewing the scene warn us that the bond market is liable to blow, and with it most of the other modules in the current MMT-driven system. That will be the magic moment when a big theory gets disproven rather vividly and injuriously. The price of everything will vaporize in a mushroom cloud of malinvestment and when the dust settles — which might take a long time — everything will be priced differently, including many things at zero.

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    1. Uh Oh. . . somewhere outside Zanseville, Ohio, a squirrel takes a final chaw through some old insulation on a wire coming out of a transformer. His head blows up in a blue arc flash, and in a few seconds all the electricity goes out from Chicago to Boston. It turns out that seventeen substations in ten states have blown relays, transformers, and switchgear.

      Basically the 2003 Northeast Blackout on steroids.

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  37. As bad as it might get here in Canada, it will be much worse in many other countries, and I enjoy this benefit not due to my skill or hard work, but rather thanks to pure random luck.

    https://indi.ca/grieving/

    Then I drive back through a city where no one can afford gas or electricity or eggs or, increasingly, vegetables. And where I have all of the above and more. I am the other side of the carnage that, when ‘averaged out’, makes economists’ numbers look good. But it’s not good. I can see in my peoples eyes, in their open poverty, in the beggars selling incense, in the children playing on the street corner while their parents sell coconuts. This thing they call a ‘recovery,’ it’s a funeral. Sri Lanka—like so many countries in the region, in the world—has been couped in one final indignity of imperialism. Squeezing the last blood out of a stone.

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  38. B today discusses depopulation.

    https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-depopulation-bomb

    You see, when people used to live like kings of old ages see their prospects falling away, they rather opt for a child free ‘live for the day’ lifestyle, than to pick up the hard task of rebuilding society from the ground up. This is how masses walk away, or rather: silently lay flat, as their civilization declines and crumbles into the dust. No big fuss, no mass casualty events needed… It increasingly looks like to me, that as JMG suggested, we are not headed towards a loud bust, but to a radically different world characterized by a silent hissing sound, as all the hot air leaves the balloon we used to call Europe in particular and the West in general. At the very end of the Colombian age we are about to see a largely depopulated landscape, littered with empty houses and manufacturing halls collecting dust and litter, and with a few people trying to earn a living as gig workers with a degree in corporate law in their hands.

    As the over-financialized economy goes under, however, self-sufficiency, hard skills on how to actually do stuff, and how to get along with people will prove to be the only investment not losing its value. Living through decline is certainly not what one wishes to do, but it is what it is. Not that this hasn’t happened many times before: modernity is just one of the many failed projects to bring about infinite growth in a finite area (or this time: planet). Some experience only the rising tide lift all boats part. Our generation, however, got the task to carry on with life, no matter how hard it might get.

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    1. Population is still increasing quite rapidly in most of Africa. I remember William Rees saying in a presentation that he doesn’t see how rapid population growth in Africa and the Middle East ends well. I will try to find it later.

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    2. Another homerun by the A.I. superpower. I always see bitcoin (or whatever) comments similar to the one I am providing at the bottom here. My reaction is always to laugh and say “after reading that great article from B, that is what you think we need to save us?”

      I am ignorant to cryptocurrency and figured I would ask you guys. Is crypto something that I should be paying attention to?

      Comment from B’s article: “We need sound money separate from the control of government. Bitcoin looks like it.”

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      1. I’m not comfortable offering investment advice so I’ll give you an answer that you’ll have to weigh and decide for yourself.

        Converting some of your savings into crypto is worth considering if:
        – you already own the high priority tools and supplies on your prepping wish list
        – you are worried about inflation destroying the value of your money
        – you are worried about government tracking and controlling your purchases
        – you think the internet will be reliable for at least as long as you plan to rely on crypto
        – you think the crypto bubble is not a bubble, or will stay inflated as other assets deflate
        – you think precious metals will be too difficult to trade or spend

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        1. Damn you Rob!! I wanted a nice easy spoon-fed answer (lol).

          I said yes for two of the items on your checklist so I might have to enter the dreaded rabbit hole of trying to understand crypto.

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        2. I rarely see businesses that accept payment in bitcoin, ethereal, etc. If one wants to be able to spend the money, then presumably there is a process to convert back to conventional money for most transactions. To be honest, I have absolutely no idea why anyone buys into crypto, other than the hope that its value in conventional money rises rapidly.

          Not investment advice.

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          1. Everyone I know that has invested in either bitcoin or gold + silver, has done it for one of 2 reasons, either something of value for the end of the world, or as an investment to return to conventional money when the value goes up.

            As an end of the world retaining value scenario, I mentioned to a friend that 1kg bricks of silver were not going to buy much. For example, say you desperately need a bag of rice when ‘money’ has crashed/ceased to exist, and the person selling the bag of rice wants the equivalent of 1 ounce of silver.

            They wont take part of your 1kg, they will want the lot or no sale. The type of response from people like this is that ‘someone’ will be able to exchange the 1 kg into smaller denominations. It reminds me of the “they will solve the energy problem”, whoever the ‘they’ are…

            With crypto, there is no value once the grid is gone, but if you are in a country that collapses earlier than the rest, then investing in crypto could have value if you can escape that country. As an investment I think both are poor unless you can buy just before one of the huge runs and sell quickly near the top, IMHO. Good luck with that strategy, most buy near the top and sell in despair near the bottom.

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            1. Hah, that last observation is probably spot on and I recognise myself. I was taken in by people like Chris Martenson, and bought some gold and silver. Not a lot but still not insignificant. I bought as it was rocketing up but that turned out to be more or less the peak until last year. Last year was the first time in over a decade that what I had was worth more than what I bought it for (most of the time significantly less). The only reason I haven’t sold yet is that it’s a bit of a hassle. There were many times when I thought I’d just get rid of it, whatever the price but I’ve held on just because of the hassle (for me, having to make an appointment and drive to the big city is a big hassle).

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              1. They dug up a lot of roman prepping gold in villas in the UK. Funny to think of them prepping all that gold and never getting to use it

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            2. I’m liking Mike and Hideaways answer (mainly because I can drop the subject and dont need to do any research).

              And funny about your 1kg of silver example. I can picture me chiseling off an ounce and handing over silver crumbs & dust for that bag of rice. haha. No way they accept that trade.

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                1. “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”

                  Just to show off my ignorance, I did not even know that they made silver bars or coins. Thought it was gold only. But ya having a sack of coins would make more sense.

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                  1. I agree with Gail Tverberg in that I expect a lot of things will not be available at any price. So I’d get my durables squared away before worrying about how to save surplus.

                    Preptip: Try to buy only things that you know you will use no matter what happens. For example, cooking is an essential activity and a chef knife is essential for cooking. I use my chef knife many times every day. So I have a spare. But not two spares because I know one will last about 15 years if I’m careful with how it is washed and stored, and I steel its edge every day.

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                    1. Good advice. I know you said you have nothing left to say regarding the guest essays, but I would love to read one about what you are doing or have done to get ready for when the SHTF. Even if it was just a bunch of things like the chef knife. I bet I’m not the only one either. And if I only took one thing from the essay it would still have been worth it.

                      Thats why I wanted a list of those preptips. (I’ve still been too lazy to search for all of them. One day)

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                    2. Preptip:

                      Hello everyone, it’s Gaia here to add my two cents to the investment discussion.

                      In my opinion, in the throes of collapse, absolutely no proxy currency of trade that is not a priori useful in itself will be of any use because like Gail T says, there will not be anything much to buy at any price. People will not be so willing to let go their physical goods of any kind for a possibly meaningless token of buying power which only has value if society remains stable and there is an established, reliable, and enforceable trade system. Also imagine trying to cash in your silver and gold coins at your local gold exchange when anarchy reigns, one’s life could be at stake even walking towards (or away) from such a shopfront, if the operator hasn’t already boarded it up and high-tailed it long before.

                      The only reason in our historical past we held things like gold and silver or jewels as a way to preserve so-called wealth, especially in times of uncertainty and turmoil, is because we expected that one day, we would be on the other side of those times and things would get back to whatever was considered normal trade and we would resume our ever hopeful vision of increasing prosperity, generation upon generation as it seems to have been–until now. These instruments of so-called value are so because they represent a way of holding value into the future, but this time, the collapse we are expecting will be of such a far-ranging, complete and terminal nature that sooner or later even the most clueless will realise there is zero hope of returning to the status quo, and the holding value will cease to function. And to fulfil the Cree Indian prophecy, it is then, in midst of ensuing chaos, destruction, famine, war, when we will finally realise that money, or any form of it, cannot be eaten.

                      My advice is to convert whatever monetary instruments you have in excess of what is needed for current day-to-day business into items that are either useful to your or your loved ones’ lives, or to the benefit of a community with whom you plan to work out your own survival experiment. Food is important (dried pulses are excellent, lentils being the most cost effective and nutritious as well as take less cooking time and therefore energy, this was one of the prep-tips, Chris) but even more important is the means of producing more food, which is why I have invested in hand tools (not only for our family’s use, but redundant ones in case of breakage as well as for others in my hopeful community to use) and a large “library” of seeds of all kinds of vegetables. I am partial to pumpkin and squash for their yield and nutrition and have many varieties represented in my stash. To work out what really is of value in collapse times, one only needs to go back to the basics of what is needed to survive as a physical organism. Means to food, water, bio fuels for cooking and warmth, shelter, useful clothing and footwear, medicines and herbs for healing and relief of symptoms, these are examples of the only kinds of currency that will be fungible in the near and remaining future. And of course, the knowledge to obtain and use them.

                      For those who can and have the energy to do so, it is almost late but still possible to secure a small holding of land on which to start the survival/thrival experiment with like-minded others. Preferably find a property that has established fruit and fuel trees in the climate of your optimal functioning, as it is rather late in the piece to be totally starting out planting from scratch. Of all the investments one can make to hold and increase “value” to life, land on which to live and from is the “gold standard” and always has been ever since we sold our souls to agriculture.

                      I could go on and on (and have in the past) because this has been my own guiding strategy for several decades now, and not because of collapse preparedness (we started this lifestyle way before being collapse aware) but because this was the way my husband and I wanted to live as it felt more authentic to our ideals. Now we are resigned to the fact that nothing will stop collapse but tending a little piece of this earth which we made our home still is the way we wish to live and die. I know many here have the same vision of living more self-sufficiently (or should I say, with more austerity and self-awareness, as the myth of self-sufficiency has long been exploded for me) and have been walking their talk with far more mastery in skill and experience than I. I am at the stage where I believe I am preparing to actively create a small intentional community on our property in the subtropics so we may lighten one anothers’ load in working together, spreading kindness and joy, providing comfort, and live out the remainder of our lives declaring our own humanity even as we may witness the end of other’s. I have no idea on how this will come about, but something tells me that in due time, the community will find me out of necessity and then the experiment will truly begin in earnest. May I be granted strength and courage to remain true to my highest intentions when tested.

                      Namaste, friends. May you know your own true worth to be valued in ways that cannot be measured by the dictates of this world.

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                    4. Thank you Gaïa garderner.
                      That was excellent.

                      I trust your intuition, as your path may have brought you to a point you are beginning to gain clear vision (or clairvoyance).
                      I bet you will be the elder telling stories to children of a time of excesses they will not even be able to fathom.

                      I wish you the best.

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        3. Cash is crypto too, after all. Mastercard, Visa and the government don’t know you have cash or what you’re spending it on — and it still works if the power goes out.

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  39. Saw this comment from Hideaway on Tom Murphy’s blog. It describes every person in my inner circle (including me prior to awakening). I like it for two reasons. It helps me understand why I cannot gain any traction with my people. And it reminds me I am not alone in this nightmare of ‘knowing’:

    “Take my nieces that have grown up in townhouses, almost never going out into the tiny backyard that’s mostly paved. To them water comes from a tap, food from a supermarket, no need for them to know anything else (in their opinion).

    They are vegan so don’t care if every bug and animal in the world is exterminated, they hate ‘bugs’. If a spider or fly were to dare get onto their wall, out comes the can of bug spray. Of course some animals like their pet dog and cat need to be saved. Dog and cat food also comes from a supermarket.

    Providing the supermarket has their needs they don’t care where any of it comes from. If the supermarket doesn’t have something, like during the pandemic lockdowns when supply chains were disrupted, then it’s someone else’s fault.

    Trying to explain the real world to them is like talking to a brick wall, with less feedback than from a brick wall. They don’t want to know about the where and how ‘stuff’ gets to the supermarket, nor do they care. Besides someone will think of something to make money and provide whatever is needed (in their world). “They” will think of something to overcome any shortage.”

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  40. Elon doesn’t think the end of growth and high debt levels are driving the flood of new low wage workers.

    From this Canadian’s vantage point it looks to me like both parties are encouraging immigration because they both understand the implications of degrowth.

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    1. By “one-party deep socialist state” does he mean actual Marxism or just the social democracy found in most other first world countries?

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  41. Oh, that thin thread of hope from indigenous cultures that so many cling to. But is it true?

    Me thinks it would be better to focus on breaking through genetic denial.

    Both low probability of success, but one maybe not zero.

    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/03/the-game-of-life/

    How is it that I keep pressing for change when I call free will an illusion and give myself to the quasi-deterministic flow of nature? Why isn’t my reaction to absolve myself of any responsibility and spend my days trying to set records for Ding Dong consumption?

    Well, apparently I’m not wired that way—although the Ding Dong option is tempting. I am a human being capable of absorbing and reacting to situational stimuli in the context of my evolutionary history as a social animal. Just as every fiber of my being reacts in vehement opposition to the thought of ripping a leg off a baby, a coyote, a newt, or even an ant, I react in horror to the knowledge that modernity has initiated the sixth mass extinction—quite senselessly. Call me crazy, but my impulse is to try to reverse this practice and avert a tragic outcome. Stimulus—response. No intervention to “deterministic” physics is necessary, and I’m 100% okay with that (not that it’s for me to say, anyway).

    I guess the reason I keep returning to this theme of emergent complexity, seemingly open-ended determinism, and free-will-dismissal is that I see removal of pretense as a crucial part of the journey. Human supremacism is perhaps the core flaw in the operating system of modernity, and self-elevation to something special/transcendent is part and parcel of this attitude. Humility is better realized by accepting our existence as nothing more than incredible products of evolution, united in kinship to all other life, responding to troublesome inputs in a staggeringly sophisticated way.

    Humans have demonstrated quite convincingly the capacity to inflict great harm to ecological health at a global scale. What happens next depends on the unpredictable outcome of the battle between concerns for self (needs, desires, drives, competition, procreation, the present and vested near-future) and not-self (social groups, cooperation, the community of life, biodiversity, the far future). I have argued that we don’t even have the option to continue satisfying selfish desires in the face of ecological collapse: we depend on the entire community of life in ways we do not appreciate (and never will, fully). So, human self-focus becomes self-defeating in the full context. This puts me strongly in the camp of advocating for not-self concern. Again, it’s part of my wiring as a social animal. I seem to care.

    In the end, it comes down to whether this creature who evolved a set of skills so exceptional that it could destroy the world has also developed a sufficiently broad social sense to value the more-than-human world enough to protect it from itself. There are no guarantees at all that evolution contrived to make restraint and wisdom powerful enough to prevail over the exercise of power. At present, the outcome is not looking so great—perhaps one of many experimental blunders of evolution. Yet, I am bolstered by knowledge that some (Indigenous) cultures have prioritized the community of life and exercised the wisdom to within bounds. That’s huge!

    Whatever the case, I will continue to play the role it seems I am set out to play, and hope that I happen to be on the “right side of history.” In the game of life, the only way to know is to keep playing.

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    1. I am no doubt guilty of clinging to that thin thread of hope from indigenous cultures.

      But you guys are also slowly chopping down my belief (from Daniel Quinn) that the human experiment is not a failure and it’s our culture/civilization that is the failure. I recently came across this article by accident from a Gail Zawacki tribute that Rob had posted. It’s a short read, but it really sells the idea about the human experiment being a failure (hardwired for war/greed). I flip flop a lot on some of these topics, but I think I am moving closer to this line of thinking on the matter.

      https://theconversation.com/were-other-humans-the-first-victims-of-the-sixth-mass-extinction-126638

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    2. I don’t think there is a definite answer.
      After all, there have been few empires and multiple tribes.

      That’s the beauty of it all: we have no certainty, so we always have the option to try and see what comes next. It is the bet of life. No guarantees, but fun.

      Also, some of Murphy’s post nears him to non-duality 🙂

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  42. Does anyone have prep tips for people living in urban areas?

    If there are enough replies, maybe this comment thread could be material for a future post.

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    1. If someone doesn’t volunteer an essay in the next week or so I was thinking of collecting up all the pretips into a compilation post, and then encouraging you all to add your favorite preptips as comments, which I will then move into the body of the post, and will add a permanent link to the site menu so it is easy to find.

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        1. You’ll probably be disappointed with my infrequent tips but hopefully the community can flesh them out into something useful.

          I’m not so impressed with the Canadian Prepper’s tips so I’ll be deleting any that resemble a battery powered air conditioner for your tent, or freeze dried lobster tails, or a massive underground concrete bunker.

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          1. LOL. Thats why I love your site Rob. Because you are already in the correct mode of thinking. I dont want this to turn into some psycho Rambo unrealistic bullshit. Go to a hard-core survival prepping site if thats what you’re looking for.

            And coming from the people here at un-Denial gives it so much more credibility. I envision some helpful and realistic tips and tricks. Like your chef knife, Gaia’s dried pulses, and the hidden cash at home. That’s three good ones right there, so the paper is already worthy of reading to me. But if we can get enough suggestions, I think it could be much more important than a good read. If it gets some of us to actually get off our ass and start preparing, researching, buying, whatever…. then the paper is worth its weight in gold. (coins not bars. haha)

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          2. Preptip:

            The five 1 hour plus podcasts I linked above to Nicole Foss are basically a monster collection of Prepping Tips (for groups).

            The problem I have with prepping tips is when they are generic. For tips to be appropriate the motivation or context has to be considered. Tips for elderly / doesn’t (cannot) camp / has co-comorbidities / lives in suburbia are extremely unlikely to apply to young / healthy / lives in a rural local / etc.

            Also an individual free of family / pets, may be suited to a different set of preps.

            Entirely generic tips (for Individuals / families) start with common sense:
            – avoid self inflicted illness, learn first aid, have a comprehensive first aid kit
            – get fit
            – avoid debt
            – have an emergency fund, in cash, at home
            – have emergency food, prefer long shelf life, that can be eaten cold
            – know which local stores are 24 hour, exactly where useful food is located, and back road to / from
            – make plans and rehearse them e.g. a power cut.
            – sort your neighbours into potential-asset / liability

            Develop mantras – tell yourself every day (aloud if necessary), “if the sun suddenly appears to be shining in a window that never gets the sun, then it is a nuke. Do not go to the window. Do not look at the window. Get cover between me and the shards of glass that are about to come my way at the speed of sound”. For me, the family bathroom in the center of house is that cover, it has no windows and no ‘outside’ walls.

            Another mantra, ” I will never wear flip flops, or have my trousers sagging below my arse”.

            Budget, is also an unavoidable consideration. Low-income prepping is very different to blowing several thousand a month.

            Starting position, another consideration. It is a little late to start now. But I guess better late than never.

            Security – Prep Tips with / without guns. Learn and practice situational-awareness. Home security, too many videos on YouTube to count.

            I view putting a list of prep tips together as a thankless task.

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                1. A promising new site started by Sarah Connor around December 2023.

                  I’ve added a link to it’s mandatory viewing videos in the Resources sidebar.

                  https://www.collapse2050.com/about/

                  Collapse 2050 Manifesto

                  Climate change. Economic collapse. AI takeover. Nuclear exchange. Class warfare.

                  The risks are real. Things are getting worse and we all see the signs around us.

                  Civilization is crumbling, yet nobody talks about it. How can you when only a small portion of the population is “collapse aware”. Nobody wants to be the party pooper.

                  I often observe people going about their daily lives and wonder: do they see what I see?

                  This is why I started writing about collapse and created this site. It’s a safe place for the collapse aware to learn, share, discuss, debate, prepare and grieve.

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    2. Hello Stellar,
      Hope you are well. I’ve enjoyed your regular comments but I think this is the first time I’ve introduced myself properly in reply, and it is a pleasure to meet you here.

      Thank you for enlisting prep-tip advice, and thus spearheading a most anticipated and practical topic for hopefully on-going contributions from the collected wisdom and experience of everyone here. I am thrilled that we as a community can do something that is positive and forward-looking as helping one another from our best intentions. I already know what a generous lot we are in sharing our knowledge and commiserations over a wide range of issues, and am so grateful for the company here.

      May I ask what scenario are you envisioning prepping for? It is probably more important to first define the goal and then refine possible actions that lead closer to the mark, and this will be different for everyone as Hamish rightfully pointed out. There may come a time when we will have to make our stand wherever we are placed, some will be in circumstances and environments not immediately conducive to easy physical survival, but somehow must still find the meaning and will to go on playing the game, and eek out whatever comfort and joy they can, for themselves and often altruistically for others. There is a world of difference between wanting to stay physically alive at any cost and living to the fullest every day, partaking in this “game” of life with as much skill and mastery as we can and choose. I have come to realise that mentally and emotionally prepping for a very changed reality is of even more urgency and import, for it is our attitudes and perceptions that motivates us to change behaviours as well as give us our personal meaning.

      Several years ago if asked your question of prep-tips for those living in cities, I would have unreservedly said the best option in face of societal collapse is to find your way out of the city environment for the long term, after all, that is what our family did 25 years ago, but not quite because of being collapse aware. I have just spouted this same advice because a great part of me believes it true. But not everyone can just up and leave where they have made their life and it is neither realistic nor understanding to just blanket wash everyone with the same pronouncement. The stress of a huge life change without physical or mental preparation, skills, or family and community support, not to mention financial means, may more than overwhelm the option of staying where one feels most secure, at least for the time being. So now I try to have a more wholistic view about other’s circumstances and realise that decisions must authentically arise from the person’s motivation and capacity.

      I do feel very much for the younger generations of us here, you have been born into a time where the possibility of collapse during your lifetime is nearing certainty and you have always lived under that spectre. You are the Frodos and Sams amongst us and bravest of all. I humbly would share whatever encouragement, knowledge, kindness, and yes, even hope, that I can to ease your journey. Whatever time remaining to us, let us continue to forge a community here and know our efforts have not been in vain.

      Namaste, friends.

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      1. Hello Gaia gardener, namaste,

        You are very correct about the equally important need for mental and emotional preparing. In the future this can only become more difficult.

        You have inspired me to think about a ‘prepping consultant’ web page. A series of questions that leads to recommendations :
        – How old is the person – young / middle aged / retired
        – Single or family
        – Independent / dependent / has dependents
        – Urban / suburb / rural
        – Healthy / not healthy
        – Prefer bug-in / bug-out
        – Guns : yes / no
        – Poor / average / wealthy
        – Skills (multi-select) : Gardening, animals, Vet, Dr. Dentist, gunsmith, trades, etc.

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        1. Hello Hamish,
          That is a ripper of an idea! I don’t have much familiarity with prepping sites but I can imagine that a tailor-made consultancy to one’s current situation would hit the mark for many people who just want to start doing something, anything that they can, at the place and situation they are, which will help them fulfil their own goals of better survival, whatever those may be. In any case, it’s a starting point for people to begin critically analysing their capacity to meet those goals and what the next steps can be to reach them, whether they need to skill up or make a major sea change. I am in awe and gratitude of your genuine desire and wide-ranging experience to put something like this together which will be of so much benefit to diverse individuals, families, and their communities. You are the inspirational one! Watch this space! (you can guinea pig us all here, and looking forward to it)
          Warmest best wishes to you and your family.

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          1. I have offered to teach the people in my tiny inner circle how to prep. None have taken me up on the offer. 😦

            I bought some extra supplies to cover the needs of my brother and he got angry at me for cluttering some shared storage space. So now I prep for one. 😦

            It’s going to be a gong show.

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  44. To Charles (because ‘reply’ above at nesting limit).

    What I would give for straightforward markdown and a preview before hitting post!

    Would you say that’s what happened in prior empires’ falls (mayan, roman…)? Because, I was under the impression that the falls were hard, nightmarish in some ways (famine in cities, institutions becoming crazy…), but not impossibly hard to cope with. Or would you say that’s specific to our current situation where the overshoot scales are incomparably worst?

    Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies and “all wars are resource wars” provides a more than adequate (and highly likely) explanation of what happened to previous empires and what is likely happening in front of our eyes today. Yes “our overshoot scale is incomparably worse”, almost unbelievably. There is nowhere left we can move to. No more (new and substantial) resources we can exploit.

    I understand your argument about money. I just don’t understand why the system could not be made to morph gradually (money included => meaning going to local moneys and decoupling from the monolith).

    I will make one last proposition, related to something I am seeing happening in France: have inflation increase the price of food more quickly than the rest of goods, so that people try to make/save money by growing food. In other words, align the drive for money (our belief system), with the necessity (the reality).

    “… to morph gradually …” this might have been possible if it hard started back in 1970. All housing passive-hause. One child policy, through tax incentives instead of force. No international shipping, go back to canals with horses. No flying. No cars. Ration electricity. Increase recycling to above 90%. Stop industrial farming and use of antibiotics. This list could go on forever. Doing all of that, ‘might’ have bought us the time needed to come up with longer lived ‘solutions’. It is now too late, very much too late.

    Also, would you agree the impossibility to change the system is due to our collective nature (denial, aggressivity and all), rather than to hard constraints? What I mean is: there are so much useless stuffs in our lives that I don’t see why a progressive de-growth could not be managed (in theory at least). Even at this point. (I am not talking about biodiversity loss/climate change, just the economic aspect: one thing after the other 🙂

    “… our collective nature …” Yes. Also, the immense size, momentum, inter-connectivity, just-in-time and so much more.

    I see that most nations are still pursuing growth and debt and all (even though, most people on the ground are more reasonable). So it means it may be not possible. So, you are probably right. However that’s still really not my feeling 🙂 I rather feel that, when needed, people and organisations will make choices and do things we could not believe possible just a few years ago. (Close borders, get out of international trade, collectivise, encourage/enforce internal migrations to reorganize, etc…). Humans are pretty good at shifting modes brutally and making new normals.

    Jem Bendell has proposed we need Deep Adaptation.

    Every 4 months the Deep Adaptation Review provides a free round up of significant news and opinion on the topic of collapse risk, readiness and response. If you aren’t subscribed then I recommend you have a look at that ’round up’ section here.

    He might be correct at the nation state level. He might equally be wrong. We are so far into collapse at this point, that shallow-rapid-adaptation might be (not only) more workable, but the only option, at individual, group and nation state level.

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    1. Thank you for the deep adaptation link.

      OK. I agree with you.
      Yet, this statement is quite strong: “The system will not stop until it breaks. Then it will be a nightmare.”

      I do not necessarily equate end of the system with nightmare.
      If we can find a way (at whatever level, with whatever means) to ensure basic necessities (I would personally add for all, as long as the “all” is not growing :): food, body temperature and safety.

      I so wish people would all agree on these priorities and start implementing. But, no people around me in real life considers this to be necessary 🙂 This, to me is the biggest real challenge and source of disbelief.
      One co-worker told me frankly: “We won’t talk about it, because it is unimaginable for our minds to process, it is worse in scale than facing our own personal death. So we just go on until it all stops brutally.” Which means, he probably gets it quite vividly 🙂
      But I can’t be like that: I am not one to give up 🙂
      And I can see the evolutionary advantage of faith(/denial) in catastrophic events with very low probability of survival.
      And we go back to Rob’s initial conclusion about the importance of denial. 🙂

      Things will turn out the way they turn out. And, maybe inner adaptation is the only practical way…

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      1. To provide a better commenting experience I would need to spend an extra US$200 per year for an upgrade to my WordPress plan.

        Or I would have to setup a self-hosted WordPress site for about the same (or maybe more) money.

        Does anyone have any experience with setting up self-hosted WordPress sites for the least cost?

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  46. Radagast today with an update on the roulette game playing out in our immune systems thanks to our idiot/evil leaders discarding 100 years of wisdom and injecting billions who did not need it with a non-sterilizing gene therapy in the middle of a pandemic.

    https://www.rintrah.nl/complete-antibody-evasion-is-easy-to-evolve/

    I have to explain one more thing about SARS2. What you see in other species, is that persistent coronavirus infections can suddenly take a dramatic shift. Most cats infected with the feline coronavirus will survive. However, in a handful of cases, the virus manages to evolve mutations that allow it to efficiently infect white blood cells. These versions of the virus are very bad at transmitting themselves to other cats, but for the individual cat unlucky enough to have its viral parasite develop these mutations, it’s generally a death sentence.

    This matters, because in the past few months, we’ve seen most of the human population infected with a radically new version of SARS2, with a Spike protein that is essentially optimized for persistent infection. It will take a few months, before we know what the long term outcome is of that.

    So, although BA.2.86 had the highest ACE2 affinity ever seen so far, resulting in the most infectious version of the virus ever, that pattern just can not continue forever. Simple logic dictates that the struggle for survival will now force the virus to embark on different strategies. The most obvious path available now would be to get rid of all those antibodies binding to the NTD. That can happen through a bunch of deletions. But as I just showed you, it can be accomplished with just two amino acid mutations too.

    This has already gotten much longer than I had intended it to be, but my point is: The evidence we have reveals that trying to protect people against this virus through an antibody response is a poor strategy, that can fail very suddenly and dramatically, both at an individual level, as well as at the level of entire populations. It doesn’t have to take more than two amino acids.

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  47. Art Berman today on peak oil.

    https://www.artberman.com/blog/peak-oil-is-dead-long-live-peak-oil/

    Peak oil was fifty years ago. That was when the end of oil production growth resulted in the permanent decline in world GDP expansion.

    Peak oil was never about running out of oil. It was about understanding how declining oil supply would affect future economic growth.

    For those who think that peak oil was a failed idea, a dead concept, think again. It happened decades ago and that explains why it has been so difficult to regain the robust economic growth of the past.

    The real cause of widespread discontent in the world—whether from the MAGA Republicans in the U.S. or the Gilets Jaunes in France—is the deterioration of economic prosperity for all but the very richest in society. People know that their circumstances are worse than they were a few decades ago.

    Some blame their leaders. Other’s blame the “elites.” Many blame immigrants. The real reason is peak oil. As Campbell and Laherrère wrote in 1998,

    “It is important to realize that spending more money on oil exploration will not change this situation.” – Campbell and Laherrère, The End of Cheap Oil

    We may not like the answer or its implications but at least peak oil provides an explanation. For that I say, Long live peak oil.

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  48. https://indi.ca/mistaking-the-non-essential-for-the-essential/

    Mistaking the Non-Essential for the Essential

    Forget the lessons from scripture, because we have truly forgotten them, if we ever understood them. Even in our reading of scripture we mistake the non-essential for the essential. That is how deeply we have been misled. You can get the same information from science if you want, it’s just another thing to ignore. Science is the most violent and crude sort of learning, like pinning a butterfly to a wall to understand it, like understanding that things are bad only after you do them. Scientific knowledge is really a confession of wrongdoing more than a warning, but here we are. As the physicist Tom Murphy writes:

    “In the course of pursuing material affluence, we have eliminated 85% of primeval forest, made new deserts, created numerous oceanic dead zones, drained swamps, lost whole ecosystems, almost squashed the remaining wild land mammals, and initiated a sixth mass extinction with extinction rates perhaps thousands of times higher than their background levels—all without the help of CO2 and climate change (which indeed adds to the list of ills). These trends are still accelerating. Yay for humans, who can now (temporarily) live in greater comfort and numbers than at any time in history!”

    What does it profit a man to gain the world and lose his soul? A lot, apparently, we’ve attained the greatest material affluence in history. But it’s all just an apparition, leaving nothing but toxic effluence as a trace. This wealth appears on our books for a year or so but then it’s gone, like a fart in the wind. The climatic, karmic debt is for millennia, and it’s ruinous. The golden bull market we worship is really just a classic deal with the Devil. He piques your interest, then gets you on the interest rate. In this case, infinite growth on a finite planet, which devastates.

    I return to the Dhammapada because I am Buddhist, but you can find this information anywhere. Find any prophet who was told, any sage who sought it out, or just look behind your eyelids long enough. Some things are essential and some things are non-essential, and the devil is in the details. This age has focused on the details—and what details!—but these are ultimately unimportant compared to the existence of the myriad creatures and the warnings of the gods. Worse than non-essential, the details we focus on are toxic. Everything we produce and so jealously count ends up in the dump, and us shortly after. By focusing on the non-essential, we lose the essential and—that being essential—we thus lose it all.

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  49. That new Sarah Connor website that Hamish found is really good. I know I’ve seen that name come up before (I think at Alan Urban’s website). She’s a great writer. In most of her writings I pick up a strong vibe of “Listen to me you idiots! I know what I’m talking about. If you do what I say we can get thru this whole collapse a lot easier and gentler”.

    Boy, can I relate to that vibe! It got me looking at some of the emails I’ve sent to my inner circle. Found this one from a year ago and thought I would share it with you for the entertainment value (my other ones are too embarrassing to share). My desperation is oozing here. And its not that I don’t believe it anymore, just that its coming from a very naïve place:

    Dear friends,

    A. three million years of human population goes up and down but never exceeds 5 million people.
    B. year 10,000 BC to year 1 AD. 5mil grows to 200mil. Forty-fold increase in 10,000 yrs. This is what a species population explosion looks like.
    C. year 1 – 1810. 200mil grows to 1bil. Five-fold increase in 1,800 years. Another similar explosion, a bit slower pace than above.
    D. year 1810 – current. 1bil grows to 8bil. Eight-fold increase in 200 yrs. This explosion dwarfs the others.

    Just to give you an idea of how much faster we are increasing now. If we had the same amount of time as C, our population in year 3600 is 72 billion. And if C had the same pace as D, there are 15 billion people in the year 1810.

    You can make it sound much more outrageous by playing around with the timeframes. But no matter how you look at it, there should only be one thing that glaringly stands out. As William Rees likes to say, “we are living in the single most abnormal time in human history and yet we think it’s the norm”. It took millions of years for humans to reach one billion people. And only 200 years to hit eight billion. Why can’t we focus on this? Or even acknowledge it? All of the answers about “how did we get here” and “whats gonna happen next” are right here.

    But I think I just answered my own question. The more I go down this human history journey, the more obvious it becomes that the elites of any given time or place will always do everything they can to not just keep the status quo, but funnel as much as they can to themselves by exploiting the masses. Same old story for about five thousand years now. But because of the fruits of “the single most abnormal time in human history”, todays elites are experts compared to our elite ancestors. The massive funneling of wealth is on auto pilot at this point. (the worlds 1st trillionaire will become a reality very soon)

    At least in the past it was always just an empire here or there that collapsed, but the world kept on ticking. Because of population size & ecological overshoot, our globalized techno industrial civilization is gonna take every living thing on this planet down with it. The very first species self-induced, all life on earth extinction. I think it’s fair to say this will be the craziest time in Earth’s history. (Ok, four billion years is a long time. But I bet we sneak in the top five)

    But instead of appreciating the amazing impressiveness of it all, I can’t focus on anything other than: “Wait, so this very small minority (1% of the population) of greedy elites, with their god-like technological advantages brought on by the most abnormal moment in history, are the same reason we (99%) will not change course from this ecocidal/homicidal/suicidal path we are on? Surely you can’t be serious.”

    Imagine an island with population of 100. And one person hoarded 80% of the resources and wealth, and the other 99 were left fighting over the remaining 20%…… Well, it’s easy to see how that plays out. Eventually the 99 would realize the insanity of their situation and simply bash the hoarder’s skull in. How come we can’t do that today? Because the system that got us here has allowed for the 1% to be in control of all the important channels needed to prevent change. Politics, police, military, media, education, propaganda, etc. Hell, they control the narrative so well that the masses can’t even see the obvious cliff we are headed towards.

    But what if everything I have written so far was completely understood by majority of the eight billion people on earth? Would we still be complicit in going down this path? Just keep on consuming, and being distracted by our shiny toys? No fucking way! And that is the reason I continue to write things like this. Just trying to penetrate the black hole that keeps the masses from connecting the dots.

    After you realize (and accept) that everything about what we do and how we do it, is wrong/evil, you are in dangerous territory. A smooth-talking cult leader could snatch you into anything at this point. It’s very easy to capture peoples attention nowadays if you tie it all in with “we could, but we won’t because of the elites”. With all of the information (and misinformation) at our fingertips, the key, obviously, is to be looking at the correct sources. So be careful. I can help you if you don’t know where to start. Personally, I wasted lots of time going down rabbit holes about The Great Reset. “You will own nothing and be happy”. And Dr Steven Greer and his alien stuff. I’m not knocking it, it’s very compelling. But it’s the wrong road. Human history is the correct path to understanding how & why we got here.

    If we (the 99%) could figure out how to change the system, starting by removing some of the power from the elites, I am 100% confident that there are many people who could steer us into a better direction. But remember: the goal is not to save civilization. It’s not possible (and not worth it). The goal is to soften the collapse of civilization and help some life forms make it thru the other side of this upcoming bottleneck. Nate Hagens calls it “bend but not break”.

    Changing the system is where most of my frustration comes from because it’s so daunting. So daunting, yet so simple. We have to stop buying so much shit!!! At this stage in the game, I think it’s realistically our only chance at making any meaningful change. If we could drastically lower our consumption levels, the power would start shifting. This starts small, but eventually grows to change the world to the point where billionaires are no longer worshipped and admired, instead they are vilified.

    For example, if every person had my monthly purchasing habits, then these would become the new mega monopoly powerful industries:

    mortgage & utilities
    grocery store
    restaurant (I get takeout twice a week)
    internet (not spending money on websites, only my time)
    cell phone
    tv streaming services
    cigarettes & cannabis
    auto insurance (no car payment, and I rarely drive because I work from home)

    Thats it. Of course, a few occasional things outside of this list, but not much. And I don’t intend to make it look like I am doing things right (for god sakes cigarettes are on my essentials list!). I just want to show that this is all about simplicity and minimalism. Living with more moderation. And if that means you stop shopping, stop travelling and end up watching too much tv at home… great! Still a better outcome. We are miles away from where we need to be (out in nature building relationships). So baby steps for now are all we can strive for.

    Chris

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    1. Yikes. Guess I was dead wrong and this had zero entertainment value. lol. Sorry guys, I genuinely thought it might get some laughs.

      And after reading it again, I noticed how it might sound like I am clowning on Sarah’s writing. In case anyone saw it that way, once again my wording is not good. All I meant was I hear her frustration and a touch of anger, with a high confidence level. I enjoy reading that style. It reminds me of Derrick Jensen.

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      1. Chris, I’m lost and others might also be. You started by addressing readers of un-denial, indicating that (like Rob) your attempt to communicate with family and friends, fell on its face. Followed by an example of such communication.

        My guess is you transitioned back to addressing un-denial readers, but it was not clear where that happened. Starting each paragraph with “> ” without the quotes indicates a quote.

        I thought your message to your friends was likely much the same as the rest of us have attempted and looked sincere. I spotted irony – things people seem to find impossible to relate to – infinity, “black hole”, and to quote Private Frazer in the British sit-com Dad’s Army “We’re doomed”.

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        1. I apologize for my confusing format. Everything after “Dear friends” was to my inner circle. Never transitioned back to un-denial readers.

          I now find humor in this kind of advice (stop consuming). Same with another letter I had written to them about organizing a massive week long strike where everyone calls out sick from their jobs. And like I said, its not that I dont believe it anymore, just that it’s totally unrealistic.

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  50. Good essay today on debt and the relationship between money and food by Brian Czech.

    I think money is one of the more compelling pieces of evidence in support of MORT. Pretty much every human wants more money and yet almost none, including the experts, understand the relationships between money, debt, and the biophysical world.

    https://steadystate.org/debt-deficits-and-warranted-money/

    Almost all readers, bearish and bullish alike, can sense the unsustainability of skyrocketing debt. Even wild-eyed growthists, who see no problem in a perpetually growing GDP, can’t abide a perpetually growing debt. Yet very few critics of debt can articulate, with economic fundamentals, why such debt is so unsustainable.

    Sadly absent from the discussion of debt is the ecological underpinnings of money. As long as these underpinnings remain overlooked, the money lenders will be overbooked. Deficit spending will rule the day, and global debt will continue rocketing into the stratosphere, heading for the sun like a pecuniary phoenix.

    As global GDP was ramping up to the planetarily punishing $100 trillion level, global debt was already surpassing $300 trillion. It reached that dubious distinction in 2021, just one year after reaching the previous record of $226 trillion. It has since come down from the peak, but still stands around $238 billion, and the reduction is surely short-lived.

    It is that surplus—more broadly, a food surplus but for all practical purposes the agricultural surplus—that frees the hands for the division of labor. The division of labor, in turn, allows for the exchanging of goods and services. All this calls for an efficient means of exchange, store of value, and unit of account: money, in other words.

    Money is warranted, then, by the division of labor flowing from agricultural surplus.

    Think about it: How would money remain relevant in a world of agricultural collapse? Everyone would be occupied with growing, gathering, catching, or commandeering their own food. No one would be producing other types of goods and services, much less bringing them to market. Money would be worthless; it wouldn’t be warranted.

    Not so with the collapse of massage services, NASCAR, hip hop, or even Taylor Swift. Nor with the disappearance of boats, guns, electronics, fur coats, or perfumes. A thousand container ships of manufactured dreck could be dumped in the Panama Canal, never to be seen or sold again, and the economy would persist. Plenty of other goods and services would remain. Money would still be meaningful, relevant, and valuable.

    It’s an entirely different story with the world’s soy, root crops, poultry, livestock, finfish, and, above all, grain. Burn those up … and watch the economy come tumbling down in days.

    Right now, the Fed’s approach to curbing inflation is the ham-handed raising of interest rates. But raising interest rates only works (sometimes) for the “demand-pull” form of inflation, where prices rise due to an increasing propensity to consume, or due to an injection of nominal money (as with deficit spending). It’s no remedy for cost-push inflation stemming from limits to growth in the real economy.

    I’m not saying these accomplished folks—geniuses in other ways—have no sense of economic capacity. They most certainly do; they monitor and talk about it all the time. Unfortunately, they have essentially no knowledge of ecological capacity, so their notions of economic capacity are flawed. They tend to think of capacity in terms of financial capital, labor, manufacturing facilities, infrastructure, and new technology. It’s reminiscent of Herman Daly’s lament about focusing on the kitchen and the cook, with little thought to the ingredients.

    When is the last time you heard a Jerome Powell or a Janet Yellen utter a word like “soil” or “water” or “forest” or “fishery”? Yet those are the stocks of natural capital at the very base—the trophic base—of the economy they preside over. They should be intent upon conserving those stocks, if not for purposes of long-term human wellbeing (which would be nice), then at least for purposes of fighting inflation!

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    1. Excellent article; I wonder if he has read Tim Morgan. He seems to see agricultural surplus as the product of energy without maybe understanding that said surplus is available only because of the high (historically) EROEI of fossil energy. He does see that the agricultural surplus allowing for the few farmers providing the opportunity for many other people to have diverse jobs – hence an economy. I particularly liked his framing of warranted money being derived from that ag surplus.
      However, I can see a collapsing scenario where all the fiat money and debt collapsing to nothing being replaced by barter/exchange of ag products/fossil energy for other transitory forms of money (seeds, fuel, limited medicines, weapons/ammo, tools, livestock, gold/silver)*. Unless we collapse civilization to all of us being farmers and keeping our less fortunate neighbors at bay with bows & arrows there will still be some things that have value beyond just food.
      The above is only if civilization goes in reverse ala JMG. Complete collapse we are all starving. Otherwise we go back in history (maybe in stages????), maybe middle ages, maybe ancient civilizations, maybe prehistorical agriculturists, maybe hunter gatherers, MAYBE EXTINCT (probably).
      So, for preptips (*)
      AJ

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  51. Indrajit Samarajiv today explains that Orwell was Orwellian, and translates some of the slogans from Orwell’s book “1984” into modern times.

    I wonder if Sri Lanka had the world’s reserve currency and the largest military, would it be trying to bomb and sanction the west into submission?

    Do good humans exist, or are we all the same?

    https://indi.ca/the-1984-similarities-are-becoming-too-much/

    First a bit of throat-clearing, lest I throw up in my own mouth. Orwell was, himself, Orwellian. Despite 1984 being critical of an oppressive state, Orwell was a literal colonizer and snitch himself. Orwell was a colonial cop in Burma and though he criticized the “unbreakable tyranny of the Raj” he was the one implementing it. He also said, “with another part I thought that the greatest joy in the world would be to drive a bayonet into a Buddhist priest’s guts.” Hence, before reading 1984 as a critique of totalitarianism, you have to consider the source.

    WAR IS PEACE –> WAR IS ‘NATIONAL SECURITY’

    Just look at the American Department of War, renamed to the Department of Defense just as it went on the permanent offensive. What does bombing Yemen to support a genocide in Palestine have to do with the ‘defense’ of America? Don’t ask these questions too loudly, or end up like Julian Assange. The American concept of ‘national security’ involves constantly bombing people nowhere near their nation and calling it self-defense. This actually makes no sense, unless–apparently—you repeat it enough. War is peace and so on.

    FREEDOM IS SLAVERY –> FREEDOM IS DEBT

    Americans claim to be the freest people on Earth, but the average American is over $100,000 in debt. Freedom sure is expensive. Americans are forced into debt for every basic need—health, housing, education—and then they have to ‘work it off,’ which is just the ancient definition of slavery.

    Michael Hudson goes into it in magisterial detail, but the most common ancient type of slavery was simply going into your creditors household (or sending your wife or kids there) to ‘work it off’. This is the same thing most Americans do, only their labor is held in corporate portfolios through sophisticated record keeping and the constant threat of homelessness or jail (with no hope of a jubilee). And don’t even get me started on the American prison system, the largest imprisonment of human beings in human history, many of them working for little or nothing (ie, slavery). This is all sold as freedom, because your brains must be in debt also. Freedom is slavery.

    IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

    I don’t even need to modify this one. Just watch/read America media to see industrial ignorance that just doesn’t stop. The great American innovation was figuring out that you don’t need to delete information as in 1984, you can instead ‘flood the zone with shit’ as Trump adviser Steve Bannon said. They can even say the truth sometimes, it doesn’t matter, it gets buried in bullshit within seconds. American coverage of the world is wide, but an inch deep (and that inch has a knife in it). They can do this secure in the knowledge that few people will pick up a book and see through it, and those that do will remain irrelevant bloggers like yours truly, or picked up and jailed like Assange if they get too unruly.

    In Orwellian doublespeak, this system is called a ‘free press’ despite it being insanely expensive. The right to speech is effectively (and legally) a corporate right in America, only extended to slaves via ‘platforms’. Americans are, in fact, the dumbest people on the planet with the most ‘muscular’ foreign policy done in their names. Ignorance is strength.

    The other confession in Orwell’s 1984 is that ‘others’ will be constantly demonized, to distract from the failings of Empire. You can see that today with Jon Stewart saying, “the difference between our urinal-caked, chaotic subways and your candelabra-ed beautiful subways is the literal price of freedom.”

    The central command of the party in 2024 as in 1984 is to ignore the evidence of your eyes and years, and to never contemplate a country that just minds its own business. Because that’s bad for business. Instead people are encouraged to focus on some other place which is definitely worse than this Empire, and simps like Jon Stewart spread the message.

    For Orwell, that ‘something worse’ was communism and it’s still ‘communism’, now extended to just being Russian because they’ve gotten lazy. Today the White Empire divides the world into ‘democracies’ and ‘authoritarians’, with authoritarian meaning places that assert any authority over themselves. Meanwhile these ‘democracies’ they’re defending are widely hated by their populations and only propped up by being better than someplace else.

    Liberal democracy really just means corporate oligarchy. All the debt slaves get to choose is the paint job on the imperial war machine and the only real benefit they get out of it is a feeling of superiority. This isn’t Republican or Democrat or Labour or Tory, the ruling class is always killing and all the voting class gets to choose is the bumper stickers on the warplanes.

    The biggest swindle is the ‘Defence Industry’, which is the American innovation of losing wars and looting your own treasury. In 1984 Orwell described constant wars between indistinguishable global empires, when in reality it’s just America rage, raging against the dying of the White. What Orwell did get right is the constant demonization of Eastasia (China) and Eurasia (Russia), with ‘Islamistan’ thrown in for bad measure. The current American Empire is constantly railing against some other country that is, at worst, fighting along its own borders, and using any excuse to kill a bunch of foreigners and loot its own future.

    1984 was framed as an accusation, but it was in fact a confession of crimes to come, and 2024 is the final indictment. Now we can all see the boots stamping on human faces forever in Gaza, and all the doublespeak, thought police, and dubious narrators in the world can’t cover it up.

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    1. Me:
      I’m a big fan of your work and share your anger.
      I wonder if Sri Lanka had the world’s reserve currency and the largest military, would it be trying to bomb and sanction the west into submission?
      Do good humans exist, or are we all the same?

      Indrajit Samarajiva:
      I don’t think so. China, for example, could have colonized and didn’t. I think colonialism was a unique historical phenomena coming out of a particular place and time. The Sri Lankans are generally happy here and happy with a bit of rice and dried fish and fruit. People here often bemoan that we’re not ambitious enough but I think that’s a good thing.

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  52. In addition to clots, permanent heart tissue damage, and a degraded immune system, we can now add cancer to the list of side effects from the mRNA transfection gene therapy injections that were coerced into billions of people that did not need them, including babies and children.

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  54. Preptip:

    The least expensive places to buy food in my community are the Costco members only warehouse and the Superstore grocery store.

    Costco occasionally puts SPAM on sale for $8.82/Kg whereas Superstore occasionally puts no-name luncheon meat on sale for $8.50/Kg.

    All serious preppers will want to know if it is worthwhile to spend an extra $0.32/Kg to buy name brand SPAM?

    This careful review concludes SPAM and no-name luncheon meat are roughly the same so you should save your money.

    It’s not discussed in the video but I would ignore the best-by date and would trust the product to be perfectly fine to eat, or for you vegetarians to trade, at least 20 years from now.

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  55. I did not enjoy this discussion because our financial system is so screwed up, in part because people who could easily make do with less, refuse to do so, and our leaders refuse to tell them they have to, so instead we’re going to carry on until everyone gets hurt, except the top 10%, and then everyone will say that no one saw it coming.

    This discussion is good for those trying to understand the case for precious metals or crypto.

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    1. I don’t know if this is what actually happened at Peak Prosperity but that’s what it looks like to me:
      1) Martenson starts Peak Prosperity with a partner.
      2) The partner wants to to focus more on investing for collapse, and Martenson wants to focus on overshoot and “community building”.
      3) The partnership ends, and each partner does what they wanted to do.
      4) Several years later, Peak Prosperity is not earning enough from overshoot and “building commmunity”, so Martenson decides to also focus on investing for collapse.

      Basically there’s no money in trying to do the right thing.

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      1. I’m sure I mentioned it the other day, but anyone trying to make a living off the reality of civilization collapse is barking up the wrong tree. So despite how much Chris Martenson ‘gets it’, he doesn’t ‘get’ that people don’t want to pay to hear doom and gloom.

        People pay to hear how much money they can make doing XYZ, no matter what XYZ actually is. There are charlatans spruiking/selling how to get rich all over the place. My question for Chris, how does any ‘financial advice’ stack up during collapse? the ‘true’ answer is no-one has a clue exactly how everything will unravel when it does, except that just about everything, or just everything will unravel.

        Look at the example of Sri Lanka, as an economy not just unravelling, but being supported by Sri Lankans from overseas sending money back to relatives, and the IMF or World Bank or whoever extending another $AA billions in bailout. Imagine what Sri Lanka would be really like if there was no outside help.

        That’s how civilization eventually goes, no outside help from anyone, when everyone is in the same position.

        Realistically I think Chris is in denial, expecting collapse ‘light’, where some type of near normal goes on for those that prepped, or something like that. He misses the denial bit of all the leaders…

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        1. I could change the WordPress setings to require commenters to be logged in.

          It’s currently set to not require login so that the barrier is low for lurkers who wish to remain anonymous.

          I’m inclined to leave it as is unless most of you want it changed.

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        2. Look at the example of Sri Lanka, as an economy not just unravelling, but being supported by Sri Lankans from overseas sending money back to relatives, and the IMF or World Bank or whoever extending another $AA billions in bailout. Imagine what Sri Lanka would be really like if there was no outside help.

          The foreign remittances, the IMF / World Bank loans, aid packages – it all stops at some point. Countries that depend on those are currently quiescent but going to become nightmares. Look at Haiti. Look at the deaths in the Mediterranean.

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        4. I have been a paid subscriber of Peak Prosperity off and on, and found it added absolutely nothing to my life. His paid videos are just more conspiracy sounding the public ones. His 101 content is very good and is free.
          My 2 cents is, he has had enough time to invest in real things and grow enough wealth to live off – peak prosperity should be a hobby for him, not a get rich scheme. If someone has gotten to his age and isn’t already financially set, then I don’t really think they’ve got good financial advice to give.
          Every second influencer on Instagram these days has a course or online subscription to sell. It must be easy money for a lot of people.

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  56. Excellent discussion on the unprecedented rise in all-cause mortality in healthy young people that began at the same time as mRNA injections, and that all of our leaders are ignoring.

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    1. This was a great interview. I only wish that Tucker and Dr. Kory had made the interview longer and discussed some issues more in depth. The reason I don’t listen that much to all of the other covid dissidents is that most of them are coming at COVID from way outside mainstream science or immunology. Dr. Kory was a treating pulmonary physician and the other covid dissidents are not clinical treaters as far as I can see.
      AJ

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  57. “Let’s be clear, we are already at war with Russia. By international law, Russia has every right to attack the ports of the US, UK, and France. They probably won’t because they know our leaders are crazy.”

    On this special episode, risk analyst Chuck Watson returns to discuss the current state of the conflict in Ukraine and the potential for escalation. With the conflict centered around resource control, cultural clashes, and political posturing – will European countries now push to keep the United States involved with the conflict? More, are we seeing the full picture from the perspective of western media? Who is really winning this ‘open secret war’ and what is the context behind the various realities of the players in this conflict? Are there still peaceful, stable options that maneuver us away from open war and what would those mean for the rest of the world?

    About Chuck Watson

    Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.

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    1. Sobering as per usual. We all live because of the rationality and patience of Putin and Russian leadership. We are ruled by an ignorant demented gerontocracy.
      AJ

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      1. This has to be like Chucks 20th appearance on Nate’s show. I used to get bored and not even make it thru a chuck podcast. Now I look forward to him and hang on his every word.

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    2. By international law, Russia has every right to attack the ports of the US, UK, and France.

      How do you think our leaders would respond if Russia did that?

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  59. Liked by 2 people

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      1. That Newsroom video is 10 yrs old and still one of my favorites (also, the first scene of s01e01). As soon as my inner circle showed no interest in this clip I should have stopped trying.

        And I am assuming the coverage tweet is for American media. Would love to see what it looks like for other countries. Still pathetic I bet, but much more respectable than USA.

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      1. Honestly why do any of you care about climate change?
        It changes regardless of what causes it.
        Humans are doing very little compared to what plants did.
        Get over it.
        Change is all there is and there is nothing you can do about it so stop crapping on about it because every single one of you that comments on this site is making the situation worse just from your lifestyle.
        Stop all internet activity and then all modern world activity. Or shut up and realise that it is just part of a cycle where you can judge yourself the bad guy or not.
        This is overshoot and there is nothing you can do about it other than ride the ride till you are dead.
        CC is BS and you all know it because you’ve done nothing about it – meaning shutting your lifestyle down (it is what Jesus would do (sarc off))
        Don’t feel bad about it. the asteroid that hit earth didn’t care either.

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            1. Why do you read here all the time, when you clearly have very little idea of what the issue is with climate and why it’s so hard for humans to do anything about our behaviour.

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              1. Take it easy on him Mike. I bet he’s young, confused, angry and scared (or she).

                But your point is so very true. If you hang out at this site, then you should absolutely know we have no chance at changing our behavior. MORT felt like the final piece of the puzzle when I got here.

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          2. it is a simple comment. Nearly everyone here goes on about CC but they all know the only way to combat it is to stop using carbon but it is painfully clear that everyone still commenting here has no issue with continuously using gargantuan amounts of it just to keep this site active and comment on it.
            So stop with the hypocrisy and stop worrying about it. Everything dies. Accept it. Varki on steroids.

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          3. My vote, is troll-bot. One had to turn up eventually. It is the complete absence of anything new that gives it away. The rhetorical questions aimed at everyone ” why do any of you ” do not help.

            And straight to anger. I hope the vegetable ends with personal experience of a tourniquet on various limbs, as they are consumed piecemeal.

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            1. Troll bot on steroids had to turn up. Gaia is Australian, AJ is overweight, Rob lost most of his social network from comments at dinner parties. Hideaway has been commenting on gai’ls blog and others but has great things to say that are very accurate and he is an aussie. Mike is an NZer along with Monk.

              PAQ is new and ABC dumped his load just recently. And Stellar hates trump a lot.

              So why do my comments trigger you. I am a long time reader of this blog. I am just pointing out some of our deepest flaws. No action will occur to counter what most get vocal about because that requires personal change. Most of us won’t do that. And that is normal. I’m not looking to change anything. Just drunk and typing. We are all trying to do our best and the result is – well look around and ………….

              That said don’t forget you are still the most privileged human beings ever to have lived.

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              1. Excuse me. All of us already know that we’re the most privileged beings that have lived on this planet, so what? We realize the privileged lifestyle we have is not available to most of beings on this planet AND is not compatible with any form of sustainability.
                Does CC stand for carbon capture? If so, I don’t believe anyone on this site has seriously thought that we can sequester enough carbon to reverse or even ameliorate climate change/ collapse.
                If you’re writing this while drunk, maybe you better sober up and quit wasting energy.
                As for your not being an AI troll-bot. All of the things that you have cited as examples are superficially gleenable from the comment section on this site by a not very sophisticated AI.
                And by the way, I don’t believe I’ve ever stated in the comments that I was overweight, I have a BMI of under 20.
                AJ

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            2. oh and I am not angry Hamish truly. I am bemused. I gave up on anger a while ago because I realised our plight and mine is not preventable. Though I must say it does take resolve to remain cheerful knowing the ship is sinking.

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              1. I thought about this exchange quite a bit on my 5 mi run/walk.
                If one remembers back to the YouTube post that had the discussion between Lex Fridman and Yan LaCunn on AI & LLM, he stated that the Turing Test is no longer accepted by the experts as being able to tell the difference between an AI that is sentient and a human.
                Hence we would have a hard time discerning between a drunk person and a crappy AI Troll-bot.
                I think we can, for most of the commentators on this site, discern by the nuance of some of their arguments and how even though we might disagree with them, lots of people’s opinion here is consistent with their thoughts on multiple different areas from politics, collapse, NTHE, resource collapse, climate change, philosophy, gardening, prepping, etc., that they are not an AI.
                AJ

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              2. Captain,

                you posses plenty of riches and skill in all fields known, to be so bored as to spend your time here and delight us miserable plebeians.

                Your wisdom is inexhaustible, strength unmatchable and your style impeccable. Alas we congratulate you, on your victory over us who mindlessly dwell on this stoa of clouds.

                May your mind be soothed by our inevitable loss, your radiant magnificence exposes our wickedness.

                May you vanquish all foes, be they great or small.

                Sail away sweet captain, guide us to blessed shores which are full of pearl where lagoons of sapphire expand to the realm where only glittering stars remain.

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                1. Dear Rob and all others,

                  I apologise for the intervention with the artistic response to the captain.

                  Rob, If you want to you may delete this comment and the previous one (the anonymous one).

                  If you choose not to remove any comments, you could place my initials on the anonymous one for clarification.

                  Kind and warm regards,

                  ABC

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                    1. Dear Rob,

                      I’m glad you found the response amusing.

                      Perhaps our dear Captain will rigorously rejuvenate themselves, before attempting further futile actions of discord, whilst under the influence of foreign substances.
                      Only time will tell.

                      Kind and warm regards,

                      ABC

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  61. Five posts from the same IP, each with a different user name. I fixed that by changing them all to Captain Ahab.

    If Captain Ahab prefers one of the other names I will change them again.

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    2. Well that was interesting. Love that Ahab admitted to being drunk. Reminds me of what I turn into when I drink. Angry and bitter. (BTW, I didnt drink last night so I have an alibi. lol)

      As our collapse gets more and more noticeable, I think we will end up with 8 billion Captain Ahab’s. It’s gonna be ugly.

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      1. Actually, I think that’s the role we, doomers play: we took the psychological blow before every body else, so we had time to mourn. It’s not that we are able to change much except ourselves.
        Prophets, survivalists, doomers, bloomers, martyrs, hermits, scapegoats, Cassandras, Themists…

        I don’t know if it’s worth to try and answer Captain Ahab’s point, which used to obsess me for quite a while but not any more. (I mean no need to comfort an AI)
        In any case, this latest article by Erik Michaels would be a good start: https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/2024/03/conservation-saving-species-fighting.html

        BTW, there is absolutely no insurance our preferred pest is going down with this ship, since at some time in the past our population rebounded from only 1280 individuals https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/human-ancestors-nearly-went-extinct-900-000-years-ago/ (if you believe the narration of a few scientists, that is :). In a way, the tragedy already happened.

        Let’s end with a few koan:
        If we get invaded by AI chat-bots, can we get into an infinite loop of comments with two different AIs bashing one another?
        What’s the sound of one AI prattling?
        (When checking for the original one, I just got it. And then somewhat lost it, so it’s going to be hard to explain clearly. My insight lies in the Wheeler eye: https://www.organism.earth/library/document/participatory-universe. In a way, we are always clapping with one hand)

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        1. Hello Charles. Good to hear from you. I like that article from scientificamerican. Reminded me of the Toba super volcano from 70,000 yrs ago that allegedly wiped our population down to a couple thousand.

          And you’ve gotta love the big brass on some of these scientists to make such detailed claims from 900kya:

          “The population of breeding individuals was reduced to just 1,280 and didn’t expand again for another 117,000 years.” (c’mon scientists, you better check your facts again. Everyone knows the population was reduced to 1,346 and started expanding 118,952 years later)

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    3. Even though IP addresses do not necessarily correspond to individual users, given that this is a niche blog about a very sobering subject, I suspect that all of those posts are from the same person.

      “Captain Ahab” All Humans are Bastards. I think that name is rather amusing.

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  62. This roundtable discussion with John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris, and Glenn Diesen occurs every week or two. It has become my favorite source of big picture perspective on global affairs by calm intelligent analysts. Unfortunately they are not overshoot aware so we have to connect those dots when listening to them.

    Most people in the US and Europe do not understand how much trouble we are in. We are going to lose the war. The Russians are going to win. The only question is what does that victory look like? Our elites can’t accept this.

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    1. Just finish listening to this. It was very good and very scary. Mearsheimer seemed more worried than I’ve ever heard him that were rapidly walking into an all-out war. It appears no one in the west and especially the US has any brake on their Russia and Putin are evil and we must defeat them.
      AJ

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  63. Is there any feedback loop triggered by overshoot that works in a direction favorable for our future? Maybe rich western couples deciding to have fewer children?

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  65. Unfortunately I still visit scheerpost.com once in a while. It has slowly turned into a garbage site. But I came across this excellent comment (from a “banning of tik tok” article) and wondered if this is nikoB. And if so, are you a fan of Peter Joseph? I’m a big fan and this sounds exactly like something he would say:

    niko 1 day ago
    ‘Where the hell and what the fuck is the free market? I’ve been selling myself as a wage slave on the free market for as long as I’ve had to purchase my right to live in this dog-eat-dog society. The free market, or rather its mythology, largely arose from violent dispossession of public commons and commoners to enrich and empower private interests. It’s historically been a partner in crime against humanity with state powers enforcing its corrupt rule of law and order, yet we’re supposed to keep looking to other mythology like government of, by, and for the people to protect us from its excesses (like all those goddam wars we the people fight to make the rich richer)?

    More like reality is that government regulation is regulating conflicts among ruling class interests, the people be damned, with the august judgments of officialdom usually based on the highest bidders and bribers of the political whores of big business. When’s the last time, or the first time, you had some say-so over all the poisons the free market is pumping into our air, water, land…lives, such that we’re breathing, drinking, eating our own death? We’re no different than any other commodity representing the reduction of life’s beauty and goodness to the cold cash nexus of the free market, and if we can’t be sold or converted into exchange value we have no other value, simply waste to be disposed of.

    Tick tock, tick tock counts the time bomb, where it’s not only Tik Tok or Big Tech enslaving us but the “filthy, rotten system” (Dorothy Day) of a society hellbound for extinction. The free market’s going to be the death of us all.’

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  67. Most covid dissidents are still not brave enough to call it like it was: Murder.

    Or if you prefer overshoot language: Unsustainable deficit reduction by culling those that consume the most healthcare resources.

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  68. New video up with Professor Bill Rees.

    At least he is one person that gets the real situation. He mentions collapse and too late to solve any problem, though does ‘humour’ the host with the potential solution of degrowth, if the warnings had been taken seriously, as in limits to growth etc.

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    1. We all have a different list of our favorite collapse people. But I bet William Rees is the most common name on everyone’s list.

      My all-time favorite is the two-hour interview with him and Nate Hagens. Bill is so blunt that he almost has to change gears and resort to sugarcoating because his answers are too scary even for Nate.

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  69. Yet another thing the climate scientists and our leaders who believe them deny. We have to get rid of all our pets.

    https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2024/03/my-old-dog-quon-was-killed-and-baked.html

    Earlier I made the detailed and referenced calculation that to reach net zero and beyond by mid-century and thereby save humanity from climate-induced extinction, we would need to reduce the global population of domestic dogs from 1 billion to less than 2.5 million, or about one dog for every 300 people. Given that the dog population in many countries greatly exceeds that ratio, this is no minor undertaking. As recently as 2012, the world population of dogs was estimated at 525 million. It nearly doubled in the past decade. Canine population needs to halve now at a rate more than twice as fast.

    To reach a carbon footprint of net zero by 2050, the US will need to cut its pet population by some 10 million dogs and 10 million cats every year for a decade and then by some 200,000 per year in the out years towards mid-century.

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    1. This would be easy to achieve.
      – Shut down the puppy mills.
      -99% of dogs and cats must be neutered / spayed.
      Too many people treat dogs like fashion accessories and discard them immediately they have health issues.
      The animal shelters are already overwhelmed and every economic downturn produces greater need.

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    3. Why are they talking about reducing the dog population, and not the human population? Pet overpopulation is simply a side effect of human overpopulation.

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        1. I don’t think it is satire. There are quite a few good references. It was not advocating for immediate slaughter and pointed out that the average life span, for dogs, is only 14 years (much less for large breeds), so it would not take long to reduce the population considerably.

          If taken as one of many measures, it could soften the crash. The problem, is the dumb shits that will not take it seriously until it is too late – we are likely already there.

          I’ve see too many videos of the way some peoples (plural) treat dogs, that it sickens me.

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          2. Hello Hamish,

            In our cul-de-sac street in the subtropics, where there are about 14 properties of about 3 acres each, some fronting onto a creek, there is a ratio of 27 canines to 23 Homo sapiens. One couple has 5 dogs. How are these mouths (as lovable as the tongue-lolling smile can be) going to be fed when things really start going pear-shaped? It’s impossible to underestimate the emotional pull one’s pets can have and since many people consider their animals more family members than their biological family, you can imagine how much more they would value the lives of their pets over any other member of their own species with whom they don’t have any connection. Many humans will starve first before the pets of those who have more resource privilege. I think this is really going to give new meaning to “It’s a dog eat dog world” in many respects.

            My husband and I were dog owners for the first 20 years of our marriage, and then due to a personal tragic event (our two Dobermanns were stolen back by their breeders, and nonrecoverable) we suddenly were left utterly bereft. The pain and grief of losing a creature with whom one patterned a congenial daily life and who represented unconditional love and joy in the moment cannot be described, as many here would know and many times over. That was the last time we had dogs, not because the grief was too unbearable, but suddenly, as if a revelation, we realised that we personally no longer needed the comfort of these magnificent animals, the gift of their acceptance was enough memory and blessing for us. I am not describing this at all well, but it was as if we somehow grew in understanding along with them and felt complete in our connection as it was, neither had to depend upon the other anymore and I just felt joy, peace and gratitude from having the experience we did, and we concluded our time together as equal earthlings, each a unique expression of life, interacting with another unique life. I am overwhelmed by gratitude for the lessons learned through our time together, they were always the masters in everything that really mattered, and I their student. I have been able to delight in the joy of many friends’ dogs before and since–there’s nothing like a good romp getting down on the floor and roughing it with a playful pooch, but they do not have to be mine, nor were they ever really owned by me.

            But the days of domestic animal companionship in the manner we have come to expect and rely are fast drawing to a close. At best, we can say with heartfelt gratitude to all those animals with whom we shared this life that we have taken on board the best of their natures, and honour them for their truth of their authentic lives. They have sought to bring out the highest in our humanity and I believe their collective mission has been fulfilled. The pet friends of the final generations today are like the rear guard, faithfully seeing us through this time of turmoil and giving us emotional support until it is not possible anymore, at least by their physical presence. May all of you who are fortunate enough to share your current days with an animal companion find solace and comfort at the time of your need and be upheld always by the memory of their brilliant spark that touched and changed yours.

            Namaste, my two-legged friends.

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            1. Thank you 🙂

              I love listening to warm episodes of your life.

              Never had a dog because of fur and pollen allergies. Later found out in life that (at least for me), these allergies were just attempts of my body (with the help of trees and animals) to get rid of deeply embedded toxins. I rarely get allergies now even though I am frequently out in nature. My personal conclusion (and I have no pretence of generality here): fear is not a good guide for a fulfilled life.

              I still don’t own a dog. I love them, but that would be too heavy a responsibility.

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              1. Hello Charles,

                Thank you and everyone else here for sharing from their lives, it adds so much to our connection and gives a comforting certainty through these days of uncertainty that others here are just trying their best to be a human being through whatever circumstances and come what will. We can all recognise the same emotions and feelings from both sides of the same coin of sorrow and joy. Our stories are our virtual hugs and pats on the back to encourage us to keep going, even if for a day at a time.

                There is something to the age-old debate of being either a predominately dog person or a cat person. In my experience I found this true until the time we lost our dogs and my mother moved close to us and she got her first pet ever at age 65, Danny the Rag Doll cat. He is 13 years old now and has been the perfect companion for my mother, as well as being independent enough to not require as much attention than she is able to give. Then I finally had the chance to get to know another very distinct personality in the guise of a feline and it became obvious to me that amongst those we call friends, skin or fur or species is no matter. Then I became a cat person, too.

                I had always wanted a dog as a young child, probably because I was an only child and felt a puppy would be my best friend and be by my side. My parents refused this wish on good basis, we didn’t have the resources then to feed and care for another, both parents worked outside the home, and over all it would be too much responsibility for all of us. Silly me, even though I knew I wouldn’t get a puppy, (and I specifically then wanted a beagle because I loved Snoopy), at some stage even later in my childhood, I asked for a pony! Haha, we lived on less than a quarter acre suburban block, call me a dreamer, obviously denial was strong in me then! I made a promise to myself that as soon as I was independent enough, I would get a dog and whether or not it was the best choice at the time, I was true to my word.

                I am wondering if your only child Rachel has gone through periods of wanting a companion animal, and I can feel for her desire if that is the case. It is not so much that only children are lonely, in fact, I became quite happy and sufficient in my own company quite early on, but perhaps we become more introspective because of being the only one that we wish for a reciprocal connection with another creature (but not parent, there is always the parent and this is a matter of creating a new, exclusive relationship) that we hope will understand and accept us implicitly. I suppose we all have this desire, which is why we stake so much in finding partners and nurturing a new life together.

                I know I may be thrown the rotten tomato for saying this as it is beyond the realm of logic and reality for our times and this spot is where we come to drink deeply from that well, but I am now crossing into the realm in which only the heart reigns and that is just as much part of us being Homo sapiens, if not the defining aspect. If you have ever truly desired to share your life with a companion animal, and the main reason you are not doing so is because of principle in face of imminent collapse, then I beg you to consider this, the animal whose life you may share is already alive and like us, destined for death whether sooner or later. The circumstances of that are yet unknown, yet each one of us wishes to keep living and experiencing as much joy as we can yet gather. That is no different than the dog or cat awaiting at the shelter today. If there is a chance we might grasp more joy and comfort from both paths crossing, then where is the harm in it, especially at this very late stage when all we have are fleeting moments of joy between the chasms of trying to find them? I know all of us here would be able to make the necessary choice of ending suffering when needed, so that is the guarantee to ourselves that we will have done the right thing, a gift we cannot even bestow openly or easily for ourselves and our human family.

                This all just poured out and before I doubt myself more and hesitate to send, I will remain courageous and true to my heartfelt intention and accept all rebuttals, willingly and graciously.

                Namaste, friends. Give your furry friends an extra cuddle and scratch for me.

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                1. Oh what a bunch of hippie dippie crap. Totally kidding Gaia, once again you are beautiful with your words. My mind drifts (in a good way) in some of your longer posts. And this one had me daydreaming of my childhood dogs. I was a dog lover but did not like cats. After my dogs died, I never took on another pet. Never had kids either. Most of my adult life I really thought I was incapable of unconditional love.

                  In 2016 I took in a stray cat that had been hanging out by my patio for a few days trying to scavenge for food. But I took it for selfish reasons. My mom was going thru a rough patch and was very depressed. So my plan was to give it to my mom to hopefully help her feel better and give her something to do. It took an entire day of convincing, but I was finally able to leave the cat at my mom’s house. Turned out to be one of the better decisions I have ever made. The cat (Zoey) is my mom’s best friend still to this day.

                  My mom, brother and I are all single. We were each living alone barely making it paycheck to paycheck. So a few years ago, we decided to pool our resources and move into a house together. And in our first month we had a cat visitor who would not leave. I ended up nervously & reluctantly taking him in. The first time I personally have been in charge of taking care of another living being since my childhood. His name is Zeus and once again it turned out to be one of my best decisions ever. My doubts about being able to love someone and be responsible are now a thing of the past. I get made fun of when we have company because all I do is baby talk with Zeus. I can’t help it, he’s my baby!

                  My brother has a big dog that we all love, so each of us has a best friend and someone to look after. Not sure what my point was when I started writing this…. but I think just to kind of echo Gaia. If you’re lonely or depressed, a cat or dog can do miracles for you. But they are not pets. They are family members. Two years ago, Zeus had a horrible urinary infection that was life threatening. Everything turned out ok, but I dropped like $3,000 in vet and hospital fees. I could not afford it, but somehow I made it happen. It was a tough couple months to get back on track financially. Some friends thought I was insane to do that. I’d do it again, of course.

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                2. Gaia gardener 🙂

                  You always have nice encouraging words and thoughts.

                  Yes, you are right about the psychology of an only child. And my daughter is in some ways the modern version of Rapunzel, a kind of hakoiri musume (an apartment bedroom filled with kpop posters being a middle ground between a box and a tower 🙂

                  Don’t worry about me, however 🙂 I don’t feel I need anything more (except maybe longer periods of blissful contemplation). Although, there are still a few things I would like to let go of (anger against some people, unnecessary complexities mostly related to the use of technology…)
                  I used to have many desires, and some still emerge from time to time, but most are ephemeral. Some are more profound than others and I wish to honour them exclusively.
                  The looks of babies, dogs, crows that cross my regular walks to the garden are enough to fill my heart 🙂 The light of the sky just before sunset. The radiance emanating from trees and people, especially young ones. Even the rugosity of work. The daily sight of my wife and daughter.

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    4. Albert Bates and the collective at The Farm in Summertown, Tennessee have a thing against dogs and cats. But reduction in the pet population won’t happen on account of their hectoring…

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  70. Tim Watkins is good for a chuckle today as he mocks the backflips our leaders do to avoid the reality of our carbon dependent lifestyles.

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/03/17/a-balancing-act-of-sorts/

    Why, after all, should anyone believe that a government is going to deliver in weeks that which it has failed to deliver over half a decade? One such political announcement arrived yesterday, in the shape of Rishi Sunak’s announcement of the development of new gas power stations. According to Sunak:

    “It is the insurance policy Britain needs to protect our energy security, while we deliver our net zero transition.”

    Which sounds a lot like “we had to carbonise the economy in order to decarbonize the economy.”

    It would be simple enough to decarbonise the UK’s electricity. Indeed, following just four steps, it can even be done at a profit… and far sooner than the Tories’ 2035 or Labour’s 2030 target:

    1. Pass legislation to nationalise (without compensation) the remaining fossil fuel power stations
    2. Disconnect these from the grid
    3. Send in the bulldozers
    4. Sell the recovered land off to property developers.

    Ultimately, a balancing act succeeds only where there is a natural equilibrium… in this case, a stable point at which the economy has sufficient energy at an affordable cost from sources which do not cause further environmental destruction. Four decades ago, when the political class began to be exercised by climate change, it seemed like technology would somehow overcome the inherent problems with diffuse energy sources like wind and solar, so long as the requisite laws were enacted. Forty years later, we are beginning to wake up to just how wrong they were. The balance cannot be struck. The choice is to either secure a high energy-density alternative to fossil fuels (which doesn’t currently exist) or face a relatively rapid simplification of our economy – which will be something like the Great Depression of the 1930s… only much worse and with no way back.

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    1. Graphs which still do not take into account:
      * population growth (per capita)
      * the growing debt (to be somehow subtracted)
      * the decline of the non-monetized “goods” and “services” (air quality, potable water availability, silence…)
      * biodiversity (I hate this plastic term) loss
      * the unique meaning each individual assigns to its own life
      * …

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  72. The Canadian Prepper has integrity. Many (most?) of his audience denies climate change yet he doggedly sticks to reality and tries to educate his audience on the threat. Today he interviews Leon Simons.

    This interview has some fresh content. Simons explains the dysfunctional denial dynamic between IPCC scientists and governments to mislead citizens.

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      1. That clip was just scary enough to make me watch the whole interview and it was pretty good.

        But I have a question. An unusually high number of comments over there are bashing and discrediting Leon because of his Club of Rome ties. All I know about that club is they had something to do with getting the famous 1972 ‘Limits to Growth’ made so their ok in my book. Does anyone know what all the fuss is about with this club?

        I’m assuming its nothing and these guys just dont believe in anything. Went deeper into the comments and there seems to be a strong sense that climate change is a hoax and people like Leon are paid to get people scared. Confused me. Why would that crowd, of all people, go there with climate? MORT? but they love collapse stuff. Or maybe he has lots of trolls because of his scary content and I just wasted a couple more hours of my life.

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        1. The Club of Rome funded the 1972 Limits to Growth study led by Dennis and Dana Meadows which concluded that to avoid collapse about now we needed to immediatley stop growing the economy.

          They were agressively attacked by pretty much everyone at the time, and those attacks continue today, with most people believing innovation and technology eliminate limits to growth.

          Even the Club of Rome could not take the heat and in the end distanced themselves from the study they funded.

          This podcast series is excellent and takes a deep dive into the history of the Limits to Growth study.
          https://tippingpoint-podcast.com/

          I find it very sad. Smart people saw what was coming and warned us. We denied limits then, and continue to deny limits today, despite obvious evidence now that they were right.

          This is why, in part, I created un-Denial.

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          1. It’s very hard to face mass denial. At work I find myself squeezed between those who believe:
            * technology will provide, we/they will find something, innovations will be made
            * the market will decide and it will turn out fine
            * there is still an incredibly large amount of oil in the ground and the consequences of climate change are far away (for the generation after their children)
            * Tesla (and other pioneers I forgot the names: crystal energy, water motors and such) have already found unlimited energy/vehicles which are being blocked by big corporations

            Honestly, they are all so sure of themselves that it sometimes makes me doubt. I have to admit, that everything I supposedly “know” are words I read somewhere. So this may just be another belief, peculiar form of delusion of mine.

            But then, I see the infrastructure all around me ageing, the cars getting smaller and smaller, the roads bumpier and the buses crappier. I see the younger generation not owning cars, the car-pooling and constant construction works made in Paris to green the city. I remember the strikes and fuel shortages just one year ago, the new “green” legislations to push electric vehicles. I see house prices dropping for the first time in ages while in a period of extreme overall inflation (especially food and energy). I can even feel the air quality improving and animal life making a come back.
            I also remember previous episodes of mass delusions (over the vaccines, over the war in Ukraine)

            And I know. There are signs everywhere. People are denying that which is right in front of their eyes. We are not talking about the far future any more.

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            1. Truth is definitely elusive sometimes. Are the Russians more or less evil than the Americans? I’m not sure. I’d guess they are the same.

              On energy and overshoot matters I think we are on solid ground although all predictions on the timing of collapse will be wrong.

              Thanks for the glimpse into French life. I heard today France is sending several thousand troops to Ukraine. Is this true? How do the French people feel about this?

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              1. I don’t know. I hope not. But there are conflicting information, it is changing every day. So at this point, it looks like the harmless/lethal covid virus, mask/no mask play we have lived once already. Once, again, it seems to me, some small gang has captured the country (but nobody really considers them as “invaders”)
                I just hope this time, and there are some hints, that there are conflicting factions (the cautious and the brazen). Ukraine may be the second leg (the first being covid), the last ditch struggle of an obsolete power before we switch gears.
                To me, it makes no doubt that Macron is of the same faction/obeying the same powers than Biden is (a power that is well ready to sacrifice France as well as the rest of Europe for some Machiavellian objective).
                Strangely however, my intuition (which goes against my rational mind) is that it will turn out fine: many things will unravel after a (maybe failed) Olympic games which will show how weak the current power is. <= this is not based on any careful analysis.
                Personally, I am just happy we didn’t blew up each other with nukes (yet)

                French people do not talk about this subject any more. Deep down, I think they feel powerless. And have decided not to worry about any of this. They are mostly resigned or giving up. Nobody seems to really want to “fight back” the system. Maybe they are right: not participating in the system might be the most effective and peaceful strategy at this point. Those who still participate in the system are growth addicts/thoughtless broken automatas. In a way, France as a country is already in pieces.
                I wonder what the army’s reaction will be. In any case, if we really were to send troops to Ukraine it would turn out a disaster. I am pretty sure our army is somewhat hollowed out (competent, but too few, not enough resources, probably disillusioned of being used rather than fighting for the country, or just doing it for the pay).

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                1. Thanks Charles. Very interesting.

                  They say Macron is pissed and not acting rationally because Russia helped some African states cut off France from uranium and other resources, and because Russia recently killed a bunch of French mercenaries in Ukraine.

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                  1. Yes, that is probably part of the equation too: France (as a nation) is losing power on every ground (economically, territorially, culturally)
                    However, individuals are still well alive and active. Trying other paths, sometimes reconnecting with some forgotten traditions, at their own level and pace.

                    To my previous comment I wanted to add a quote from a well known essay by La Boétie (https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/%C3%89tienne_de_La_Bo%C3%A9tie):

                    Resolve to serve no more, and you are at once freed. I do not ask that you place hands upon the tyrant to topple him over, but simply that you support him no longer; then you will behold him, like a great Colossus whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break in pieces.

                    I think that’s what many are practising now, unknowingly.

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          2. I am so glad that I sifted through those shit comments over at canadian prepper. It was all worth it for me to ask you about the Club of Rome.

            Damn that was a great podcast! Thanks. Listened to all three back to back. I was on the edge of my seat like a great thriller movie. My anger was raging especially in part 2. My respect/love for Dana has increased ten-fold. I cannot imagine her and her teammates colossal disappointment.

            And I know I am misguided with the following but I cant help it. I wish there was more color/ethnicities involved in the idiotic attacks on Limits to Growth. But its always white devils and that just fuels my conspiracy about how white skin is the cause of our downfall.

            Man, I am still pissed off from this podcast. Might need to self-medicate during my lunch hour (lol).

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              1. Ya, I’ve seen those before but I am gonna watch them again tonight. The black and white ones from 1977 are so cool. Can you imagine having Dana as your teacher? System thinkers are on a whole nother level.

                In case you have never heard of him, Peter Senge was a good friend of Dana. He has a few videos, but this is one of his better ones.

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  74. And now, Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handey (older readers might get that reference):

    I do not spend much time thinking about covid, but a post (on March 5th by Rob) about covid theories got my paranoia conspiracy wheels turning. The idea that I have latched onto is that it was all about experimenting and getting us ready for massive population reduction. Future vaccines & viruses will do one of three things: nothing / kill you / save you. And we peasants will not know which is which. The one percenters will eventually get some type of vital cryptic message like “pass on the first five vaccines, but make sure you get the sixth one”. The rest of us will just have to “guess” correctly.

    I started thinking about the energy benefits of this theory. Keep on going with current status quo and I’ll be way over the top generous and give energy 50 more years till SHTF. But it doesn’t matter how many years I give it because climate change and a bunch of other predicaments will never allow us to go that long with the status quo. So it makes zero sense for the elites in charge to continue going down this road and wasting the remaining energy (“my precious”).

    One percent of our population is 80 million. That number is way too high as far as the “people in charge” or the amount that would receive the vital cryptic message. Nate Hagens recently called it “the 1500”. I’ll overestimate Nate and call it one million. Now this group will surely have many leaks to friends/family. Plus the people who get lucky and “guess” correctly. And of course the elites will need many laborers, servants, and security. So after all is said and done with the carnage of the lethal vaccine/virus…. lets go with 250-500 million survivors worldwide.

    Well, that could possibly keep the lights on for a couple hundred more years with a 1950’s american type of energy life (assuming they are more on the energy conserve side now). But once again, because of a worsening climate (and other predicaments) and now spending all of your remaining energy on building bubble cities (air outside too hot, poisonous, etc. Which I think it could get to by 2200)…. I would give them zero chance to even make it to 2200. But even this scenario makes way more sense than continuing status quo till we all run out of energy or climate swoops us up or nuclear war wipes out everything.

    IMHO it’s a mistake to think that “the 1500” are incompetent and overshoot blind. And at this late stage in the game, “if you knew what you were doing”, seems to me that the covid theory is actually your #1 option if the goal (addiction) is to keep doing the same old thing of kicking the energy can further down the road.

    And because I am convinced that we are not going to do any of the important stuff regarding softening the collapse (decommissioning nuclear power plants, helping some plants & animals survive, etc)…. in some sick, twisted way I am actually in favor of implementing this theory. Best chance of continuing the human race. But it’s an extremely selfish & supremacist mindset. Because sapiens surviving the collapse is the worst possible outcome for everything non-human.

    Chris

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    1. I had a long conversation with my mRNA’d brother recently about covid. When mRNA was rolled out he ignored my warnings and did what the government asked to get along. Now he’s waking up to the fact that I was right.

      I explained all the evidence and associated theories. He kept asking over and over, what was the motivation of our leaders? I told him I have an open mind but it’s the only important world event that I don’t have a clear idea of who did what and why.

      So I accept that your theory is possible. A sizeable sub-group of the dissidents think population reduction was the core objective, unfortunately, most (none?) are overshoot aware like those of us here so they don’t have the correct context.

      I do struggle with the idea that 1500+ people are able to plan such a dangerous operation without someone spilling the beans.

      Chris, your mission now is to go on Twitter and convince the other 4 dissident groups that your theory is the correct one.

      The thing that troubles me the most is that we don’t seem to be converging to a consensus, which means I think, that the bad guys are going to get away with it.

      https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Jack_Handey

      I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world because they’d never expect it.

      MAYBE in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself. Basically, it’s made up of two separate words — “mank” and “ind.” What do these words mean? It’s a mystery, and that’s why so is mankind.

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    2. Looks like Gail Tverberg agrees with you.

      Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits

      Many people understand the overshoot problem. Somehow, world population must be reduced.

      It doesn’t work for people in rich countries simply to stop having children. This leads to a big immigration problem, which we have now.

      The self organizing economy will give us solutions. The badly behaved vaccinations for Covid-19 may have been part of these solutions.

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      1. Would be cool if she hangs out at this site and I just influenced her. I dont follow Gail, but I’m betting she already had that viewpoint.

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  76. Art Berman today argues energy is far more important to productivity than innovation and technology.

    https://www.artberman.com/blog/technology-and-innovation-are-overrated-implications-for-ai/

    At some point we will have to step back from the sacred alters of technology and start working on our own behavior if we expect to continue thriving. If we don’t, Nature will do it for us and that will be a civilization-altering trauma.

    Energy is what matters. Technology and innovation are like tiny stowaways on the super tanker of the human enterprise that take credit for the journey without acknowledging the massive fossil fuel engines underfoot.

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  77. B today on falling UK CO2 emissions, and why global GDP growth is struggling despite record high production of oily substances.

    https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/bye-bye-carbon

    Ours is a carbon based economy. On the other hand, carbon emissions are wrecking the climate; for proof just take a look at this short tour de force from Paul Beckwith. In related news UK emissions in 2023 fell to lowest level since 1879. But why is that so? Are we on a path to a green Nirvana, or something entirely different is going on? If you suspect that it is the latter, then this one is for you.

    Who wouldn’t want to produce oil at $25–30 and sell it for $90? The wee little problem we have is that on a global level we cannot produce more oil at this price. And soon, not even for a higher one. Simply put: we have run out of the easy to access stuff, requiring low to modest energy investments to get.

    This relentless rise in energy investment needed to replace depleting wells, let alone bringing more oil onto the market, leaves a mark on even the best financed players’ balance sheet. Saudis, for example, are literally out of money to expand oil production, and rather pay dividends than to invest in future production. Perhaps, they are not so eager to squander their oil wealth in one fell swoop (like US shale producers), but a worsening return on investment should at least ring some alarm bells…

    The growth in global oil production is approaching its end, before a terminal decline sets in. Something, that with a natural decline rate of 6 million barrels a day globally could be pretty steep. (This of course presumes that everybody decides to stop replacing depleted wells all at once, which I find highly unlikely.) However, even a steady annual 2–3 million barrel/day production loss could lead to a massive deterioration of the global economy. Sure, more and more trucks will be converted to burn LNG or other manufactured fuels (gas to liquids or coal to liquids, biofuels, synfuels, etc), but as the production of these fuels are intimately tied to oil production and have a dismal energy return on investment, I would not bet the house on their success.

    It should not come as a surprise then that the much touted “renewable” and nuclear powered green economy remains hopelessly tied to affordable diesel (from mining resources to delivering everything on site), and other fossil fuels powering the creation of all the necessary steel, cement and the plethora of other technologies. These “new” energy resources are nothing but a desperate attempt to buy more time — to watch more cat videos while getting rich on Bitcoin.

    The fall in CO2 emissions, while good news for the future of the global climate, signals a turning point in the life of this civilization. The UK, Germany, and Europe in general are just the first canaries to kick the bucket in this rapidly depleting coal mine we call the ‘economy’. I know this might sound “depressing” to some, but it is what it is. I see no use putting lipstick on this pig. This is how infinite growth ends on a finite planet, much sooner than the resulting climate change could wreak havoc on the economy. This civilization was built and maintained by the power of fossilized plants, and as their carbon returns to the atmosphere to recreate a state of climate not seen in the past 3 million years, the human enterprise will return to a much simpler state and to much, much lower numbers; not seen since the Neolithic age.

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  78. Very interesting deep dive today into steel production and recycling and it’s relationships with renewable energy by Kris De Decker.

    https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2024/03/how-to-escape-from-the-iron-age/

    The high steel intensity of low carbon power sources confronts us with a so-called “catch-22”, a situation in which there seems to be no escape from a problem no matter what we do. We need much more steel if we replace thermal power plants with renewable ones. Because there is not enough steel scrap available, we can only produce that extra steel from iron ore in blast furnaces burning fossil fuels. To address climate change, we need to build low-carbon sources quickly and in great numbers. However, to achieve circular material flows and build low-carbon power sources from scrap and renewable electricity, we would have to do the opposite: slow down the development of a low-carbon power grid.

    The picture painted above seems to offer little hope for carbon-neutral steelmaking and power production. However, there is a low-tech solution that could achieve it. We could adjust steel production to the available scrap supply both in quantity and quality. That would allow us to produce all steel from scrap in electric arc furnaces, dramatically reducing energy consumption and eliminating almost all carbon emissions. Of course, the intent should not be to replace steel with plastic composites and aluminum because they are even more energy-intensive to produce. The only solution is to reduce material use overall.

    There is a lot of room to reduce the steel intensity of modern society. All our basic needs – and more – could be supplied with much less steel involved. For example, we could make cars lighter by making them smaller. That would bring energy savings without the need for energy-intensive high-grade steel. We could replace cars with bicycles and public transportation so that more people share less steel. Such changes would also reduce the need for steel in the road network, the energy infrastructure, and the manufacturing industry. We would need fewer machine tools, shipping containers, and reinforced concrete buildings. Whenever steel intensity is reduced, the advantages cascade throughout the whole system. Preventing corrosion and producing steel more locally from local resources would also reduce energy use and emissions.

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  79. Tim Watkins today discusses our simultaneously too-high and too-low population. I think it’s analogous to fossil carbon use being too-high and too-low. We face a predicament, not a problem.

    Watkins does not believe there is a cabal trying to reduce our population. Just natural forces.

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/03/18/natural-decline/

    The key statistic within the falling birthrate is the absence of growth of one-child families. That is, people who have children tend to have two or more. The big increase is in the number of people not having children at all. And what began in Japan soon spread across the westernized parts of Asia, and on to Europe and North America, as the energy crisis and economic slowdown of the 1970s gathered pace.

    The three key mechanics for responding to the growing economic decline also involved sour grapes narratives to cover their mercenary nature:
    – Equalities legislation was couched in progressive language, but its primary purpose was to create a pool of cheap excess labour with which to break trades unions and to drive down real wages.
    – Offshoring was sold as a means of bringing developing states up to western levels, but again, the real purpose was to lower wage costs and to avoid regulation in order to drive down prices.
    – Credit was promoted as a sensible “buy-now/pay-later” approach to consumption in an age of inflation, since economic growth was assumed, and the value of the debt was expected to deflate over time.

    Economic growth across the western states since the 1970s has been increasingly an illusion resulting from a growing and indebted population. But now, with the youth population in decline, any “asset” which depends upon a growing mass of payers – a house, a pension, a government bond, a collateralized debt obligation, an apple i-phone, or a Netflix subscription, to name but a few – will be rendered unviable… only the order and timing of the failures is left to discover. And beyond that, all that remains is when the various sour grapes narratives – including the one about how some all-powerful “they” behind the curtain is doing this deliberately – finally breakdown and people are forced to acknowledge the reality of a natural process of collapse which has been slowly gathering pace for more than half a century.

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