Gail Tverberg made a comment today that rings true and motivated me to write about something I’ve been mulling for a while…
I think the reaction to COVID-19 is part of how a self-organizing system works. People were looking for a reason to cut back/shut down. The illness provided this.
I do not believe in most conspiracy theories, but I do believe that crises are frequently used to implement plans that would be impossible without a crisis. The responses to Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, 9/11, and the 2008 GFC are good modern examples.
Perhaps the virus has provided (mostly subconscious) cover for:
- citizens tired of commuting 2 hours a day to a stressful job so they could keep up with their neighbor’s latest unnecessary status symbol purchase
- citizens who intuited they should reduce discretionary spending and pay down credit card debt, which interestingly declined in 2020, rather than increasing as it did during the 2008 GFC
- leaders that sensed we should voluntarily throttle back, because we’d soon be forced by limits to growth
- leaders that understood we needed to rapidly reduce CO2 emissions, and the only way to achieve this is by contracting the economy
- leaders that needed an excuse to restrict freedoms to maintain civil order in preparation for a significant contraction of our energy/economic system
- central banks that understood we had hit limits to growth and that needed an excuse for massive corporate bailouts to prevent a catastrophic economic collapse, and for MMT to keep citizens fed
Perhaps this helps to explain why our responses to the virus have not been intelligent or optimal:
- effective means of containing the spread were ignored or procrastinated in the crucial early days
- existing cheap and effective preventative measures are ignored and not promoted; new preventative measures are not researched
- promising cheap and effective treatments are ignored and/or aggressively undermined
- some lock-down measures lack logic or good judgement
- the source of the virus is not being aggressively investigated to better understand appropriate responses, and to prevent a reoccurrence
To be clear, I am not suggesting a conspiracy to release a virus. I think the most probable explanation is that the virus was engineered in a lab with good intentions, and that it escaped by accident, as explained here:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html
I am suggesting that people at all levels of our society appear to be using the virus as an excuse to make changes that were impossible to make prior to the crisis. Some of these plans may have been well thought out and sitting on a shelf waiting for the right circumstances, like for example MMT, and other responses, like for example citizens paying down credit card debt, may be an instinctual response to anticipated scarcity.
Jay Hanson, who died in 2018, was one of the greatest thinkers about human overshoot. I wrote more about Hanson here:
https://un-denial.com/2018/03/26/by-jay-hanson-reality-report-interview-november-3-2008/
Hanson concluded that civilization was doomed due to genetic human behaviors that were unlikely to change, and that it would probably end with a nuclear war, as discussed in this 2008 interview with Jason Bradford:
right click save as to download
Hanson did however describe one path that was thermodynamically feasible, and that might avoid some of the worst suffering.
Perhaps we have (mostly subconsciously) decided to implement some of Jay Hanson’s ideas.
https://dieoff.com/page168.htm
<begin extract from Hanson’s essay>
SOCIETY OF SLOTH
In order then that the social compact may not be an empty formula, it tacitly includes the undertaking, which alone can give force to the rest, that whoever refuses to obey the general will shall be compelled to do so by the whole body. This means nothing less than that he will be forced to be free; for this is the condition which, by giving each citizen to his country, secures him against all personal dependence. In this lies the key to the working of the political machine; this alone legitimises civil undertakings, which, without it, would be absurd, tyrannical, and liable to the most frightful abuses.
— Jean Jacques Rousseau, 1762
(What follows is not meant to be a comprehensive description of a new society, but only presents some conceptual ideas for consideration.)
MY KEY DEFINITIONS
- GLOBAL PROBLEMATIC (after The Club of Rome, 1972): Global tragedy of the commons because people are genetically programmed to more-than-reproduce themselves and make the best use of their environments.
- COMMONS: “A commons is any resource treated as though it belongs to all. When anyone can claim a resource simply on the grounds that he wants or needs to use it, one has a commons.” [32]
- NEEDS: Human “needs” have a scientific basis which is defined by human biology. 35,000 years ago, three million hunter-gatherers “needed” community, shelter, health care, clean water, clean air, and about 3,000 calories a day of nutritious food. Today, people still “need” the same things that hunter-gatherers “needed” then (except fewer calories).
- eMergy: [33] eMergy (with an “M”) is the solar energy used directly and indirectly to make a service or product. In other words, eMergy is the “cost” of a service or a product in units of solar energy.
Why eMergy? In reality, the economy is nothing but a monstrous, energy-gulping Rube Goldberg machine to deliver “needs” to people. But each of those three million hunter-gatherers was the energy-using counterpart of a common dolphin, whereas each of today’s 280 million Americans matches the energy use of a sperm whale. Obviously, the “economy” is incredibly inefficient at delivering “needs” to people.
No doubt my statement will stick in the economist’s craw, because after all, isn’t “efficiency” what economics is all about? The problem with “economic efficiency” is that “money” is not a measure of anything in the real world (like, say, BTUs). Money is power because money “empowers” people to buy and do the things they want — including buying and doing other people (politics). Thus, “economic efficiency” is properly seen as a “political” concept that was designed to preserve political power for those who have it.
For over a century, theorists have sought ways of integrating economics and environmental accounting, often using energy as a common measure. But these efforts met with limited success because different kinds of available energy are not equivalent. The measure of “eMergy” allows us to compare commodities, services and environmental work of different types. “Transformity” – the eMergy per unit energy – allows us to compare different kinds of available of energy.
So we need to totally junk the present economic system and replace it with a new one that minimizes eMergy costs (not money costs ) and delivers basic needs (not Cadillacs) to everyone in a sustainable way. - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: Sustainable development both improves quality of life and retains continuity with physical conditions; it requires that social systems be equitable and physical systems circular (industrial outputs become industrial inputs).
- AUTHORITY: Goals (or ideals) are not produced by a consensus of the governed, rather a qualified authority determines goals. For example, physical goals for sustainable development must come from “scientific” authority — because no one else knows what they must be. All contemporary political systems are “authoritarian” with the moneyed class ruling the pseudo democracies.
- COERCION (politics): To “coerce” is to compel one to act in a certain way — either by promise of reward or threat of punishment. Two obvious examples of coercion are our system of laws and paychecks.
- THE ONE-AND-ONLY HUMANE SOLUTION: “Mutual coercion, mutually agreed upon.” [34] A global system of coercion — laws, police, punishments and rewards. In principle, the global commons can only be managed at the global level by people who understand the physical systems involved: scientists. Global coercion can be seen in the worldwide reactions to ozone depletion and global warming. Remarkably, even economists find that authoritarian coercion can make them “better off”:
A group of economists had gathered at my house for dinner. While we were waiting for the food in the oven to finish cooking, I brought a large bowl of cashew nuts into the living room where people were having cocktails. In a few minutes, half the bowl of nuts was gone, and I could see that our appetites were in danger. Quickly, I seized the bowl of nuts and put it back in the kitchen (eating a few more nuts along the way, of course). When I returned, my fellow economists generally applauded my quick action, but then we followed our natural inclinations which was to try to analyze the situation to death. The burning question was: how could removing an option possibly have made us better off? After all, if we wanted to stop eating cashews, we could have done that at any time. [35]
Besides laws and paychecks, coercion can take many forms:
It is not necessary to construct a theory of intentional cultural control. In truth, the strength of the control process rests in its apparent absence. The desired systemic result is achieved ordinarily by a loose though effective institutional process. It utilizes the education of journalists and other media professionals, built-in penalties and rewards for doing what is expected, norms presented as objective rules, and the occasional but telling direct intrusion from above. The main lever is the internalization of values. [36]
Step one would be to establish a global government of some sort with the authority to protect the global commons — our life-support system — as well as protecting universal human rights. This government would also oversee the “clean” manufacturing of “repairable” and “reusable” energy-efficient appliances and transportation systems. It would also insure the sustainable production of staples like wheat, rice, oats, and fish.
Does this new global government sound repressive or restrictive? Not at all. A great deal of freedom is possible — in fact, far more than we have now.
eMERGY CERTIFICATES
Step two would be to replace the organizing principle of “avarice” with the principle of “sloth”; break out of the money-market-advertising-consumption death trap. The Society of Sloth would not be based on money because that would be inherently unsustainable. Instead, it would be based on “eMergy Certificates”. [37]
Global government would determine the “needs” of the public, set industrial production accordingly, and calculate the amount of eMergy used to meet these needs. Government would then distribute purchasing power in the form of eMergy certificates, the amount issued to each person being equivalent to his pro rata share of the eMergy cost of the consumer goods and services.
eMergy certificates bear the identification of the person to whom issued and are non-negotiable. They resemble a bank check in that they bear no face denomination, this being entered at the time of spending. They are surrendered upon the purchase of goods or services at any center of distribution and are permanently canceled, becoming entries in a uniform accounting system. Being non-negotiable they cannot be lost, stolen, gambled, or given away because they are invalid in the hands of any person other than the one to whom issued.
Lost eMergy certificates would be easily replaced. Certificates can not be saved because they become void at the termination of the two-year period for which they are issued. They can only be spent.
Insecurity of old age is abolished and both saving and insurance become unnecessary and impossible. eMergy Certificates would put absolute limits on consumption and provide people with a guaranteed stream of “needs” for life.
With modern technology, probably less than 5% of the population could produce all the goods we really “need”. A certain number of “producers” could be drafted and trained by society to produce for two years. The rest can stay home and sleep, sing, dance, paint, read, write, pray, play, do minor repairs, work in the garden, and practice birth control.
SELF-DETERMINATION
Any number of cultural, ethnic or religious communities could be established by popular vote. Religious communities could have public prayer in their schools, prohibit booze, allow no television to corrupt their kids, wear uniforms, whatever. Communities of writers or painters could be established in which bad taste would be against the law. Ethnic communities could be established to preserve language and customs. If someone didn’t like the rules in a particular community, they could move to another religious, cultural, or ethnic community of their choosing.
In short, the one big freedom that individuals would have to give up would be the freedom to destroy the commons (in its broadest sense) — the freedom to kill. And in return, they would be given a guaranteed income for life and the freedom to live almost any way they choose.”
<end extract from Hanson’s essay>
un-Denial 
Move along, nothing to see here.
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/01/weekly-commentary-reality-of-financial.html
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Norway has had 511 Covid-related deaths during the past year, or about 10 deaths/week; they have just had 25 vaccine-related death since the beginning of the vaccination program on December 27th, or about 10 vaccine-related deaths/week.
https://nypost.com/2021/01/15/23-die-in-norway-after-receiving-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/
The English-speaking media seems mostly cricket-like on this, and there are some suggestions (by a professor who has over 100 peer reviewed publications, with over 5000 citations and a H-index is 31, which is in the top 10% globally for the Biomedicine discipline) that this is perhaps the tip of an iceberg, as previous animal models of mRNA vaccines have seen severe ADE responses from later challenges with similar viruses:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kF7a9YQpVs
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Interesting. It’s very hard to sort the wheat from the chaff with Covid.
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no, you’re a fucking retard.
Please don’t get vaccinated, never wear a mask & frequent as many ‘kissing booths’ as is humanly possible.
Professor Dolores Cahill: Anti-vaxxer turned Covid Grifter
May 30, 2020·21 min read
Professor Dolores Cahill has become popular with anti-lockdown activists following interviews where she has dismissed social distancing and lock-down, as well as promote COVID-19 conspiracy theories and vaccine hesitancy.
Prof. Cahill’s background is in developing proteomics technology and immunological assays for research and medical applications. She can be accurately described as an immunologist, but not a virologist or epidemiologist. It’s important to acknowledge that most scientist’s expertise is incredibly narrow, with even virologists often spending their entire scientific career researching a single virus, or virus family. Expertise in one area of science often doesn’t translate to expertise in even closely related areas.
Prof. Cahill’s published research output is consistent with an active research scientist, publishing several peer reviewed articles a year up till the end of 2015 where her publications listed on her university profile abruptly stops.
A custom search of publications by Prof. Cahill since 2016 shows a single retracted study. A retraction is often considered a death sentence in research as it makes getting grants from mainstream funding agencies more difficult. They see it as a red flag, and in the competitive world of grant applications you might not be given a second chance.”
“Prof. Cahill seems to be pivoting from an academic to a political career as the party chairperson for the Irish Freedom Party where she failed to get elected in 2019 and well as the Irish General Election 2020.”
View at Medium.com
From Retraction Watch
“The paper is extremely flawed:” Journal retracts article linked to vaccines
https://retractionwatch.com/2017/08/15/paper-extremely-flawed-journal-retracts-paper-heavy-criticism/
Anti-ribosomal-phosphoprotein autoantibodies penetrate to neuronal cells via neuronal growth associated protein, affecting neuronal cells in vitro
“Shaye Kivity, Yehuda Shoenfeld, Maria-Teresa Arango, Dolores J. Cahill, Sara Louise O’Kane, Margalit Zusev, Inna Slutsky, Michal Harel-Meir, Joab Chapman, Torsten Matthias … Show more
Rheumatology, kew027, https://doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/kew027
Published:
06 May 2016
A retraction has been published:
Rheumatology, Volume 56, Issue 10, October 2017, Page 1827, https://doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/kex259
This article has been withdrawn, please see retraction notice kex259 for further details.”
https://academic.oup.com/rheumatology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/rheumatology/kew027/2631536
Covid-denial, Dolores Cahill and the international far right
“Belltower News — which provides monitoring updates on far right and related activity, and which is supported by the German Amadeu Antonio foundation, has concluded that there are significant links between leading figures in Querdenken and the German far right, including Holocaust deniers.”
https://farrightobservatory.medium.com/covid-denial-dolores-cahill-and-the-international-far-right-5d76b8f1fee9
UCD professor asked to resign from EU committee over Covid-19 claims
Dolores Cahill promised to ‘debunk’ pandemic in interview with alt-right activist
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ucd-professor-asked-to-resign-from-eu-committee-over-covid-19-claims-1.4277698
So much for your desperate & amateurish argument from authority.
As for the vaccine related deaths, I’d need numbers, like 23 deaths in Norway plus all other know vaccine related deaths in the world for that specific vaccine vs total number of people who have been given that vaccine. Are you starting to see how this science & math works? Next I need ages & known preexisting conditions. It’s my understanding many of the deaths in Norway are old (80+) frail people, which is funny because you denier conspiracy inbreeds never STFU about the elderly & pre existing conditions when it comes to Covid deaths. Hell y’all are making up preexisting conditions for any under 50 who dies of Covid ….’Ya, well… um….sure she was only 21 years old & a fit athlete, but she was left handed & everyone knows being left handed is a preexisting condition – doesn’t count!’.
no, don’t feel too sad 😦 about getting your ass whopped since your ass just got whooped by the best. Fucking cull.
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Thank you for sifting the chaff.
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👍Lol😄
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When I reflect on the last 10 years of our mistakes and lost opportunities the one that makes me the most angry is not holding anyone to account for the 2008 frauds. I think it had important consequences.
Albert Bates touches on this and other issues in a good essay today…
https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-great-pause-week-44-auguries.html
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Rob,
I too thought that Albert Bates was good today. He appears to accept denial and says we have to reduce population to avoid extinction. I agree that Obama & co. missed the opportunity to take Wall Street (and corrupt politicos) to task. But I think Obama also took from the Clinton playbook by selling out the people who voted for him (hoping that he would be transformational) for the moneyed interests and the “educated” elite. Dems have been selling out the working class since Clinton. However, I think Republicans are just as bad. Trump sold out his people, but convinced them he was their champion with better propaganda from Fox and right-wing web sites. None of the working class has progressed in 20 years. Not that progress (growth) is possible from an extreme overshoot position. I fear anybody that thinks politics is anything but a distraction at this point. They are just hubris soaked idiots. Collapse here we come.
AJ
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The last paragraph of that essay is about the most delusional that I have ever read. Not oinly does he expect this civilisation to be able to shift to ‘zero carbon emissions ‘ but there is miraculously going to be enough of that ‘zero
carbon emissions ‘ energy to be able to resequester atmospheric and oceanic CO2. He definitely deserves some sort of prize.
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You’re right! I stopped reading at the line above thinking that was the end of his essay. It is true that the elites are on a path to try to implement the last paragraph. That’s essentially the Great Reset. I think they’ll try it until their efforts blow up the monetary system due to negative real growth, and then they’ll realize there’s no substitute for fossil energy and it’ll be war for what remains.
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It’s time for Albertans to go back to farming, and then thank god they’ll be too poor to buy up real estate in B.C..
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-keystone/biden-may-cancel-keystone-xl-pipeline-permit-as-soon-as-his-first-day-in-office-source-idUSKBN29N00A?il=0
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Good! At least the environment, the animals therein , the acquifers etc will be safe – at least for a while longer ….
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Good one if you’re considering an e-bike…
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Cataclysms: An Environmental History of Humanity – Laurent Testot
“Humanity is by many measures the biggest success story in the animal kingdom; but what are the costs of this triumph? Over its three million years of existence, the human species has continuously modified nature and drained its resources. In Cataclysms, Laurent Testot provides the full tally, offering a comprehensive environmental history of humanity’s unmatched and perhaps irreversible influence on the world. Testot explores the interconnected histories of human evolution and planetary deterioration, arguing that our development from naked apes to Homo sapiens has entailed wide-scale environmental harm. Testot makes the case that humans have usually been catastrophic for the planet, “hyperpredators” responsible for mass extinctions, deforestation, global warming, ocean acidification, and unchecked pollution, as well as the slaughter of our own species. Organized chronologically around seven technological revolutions, Cataclysms unspools the intertwined saga of humanity and our environment, from our shy beginnings in Africa to today’s domination of the planet, revealing how we have blown past any limits along the way–whether by exploding our own population numbers, domesticating countless other species, or harnessing energy from fossils. Testot’s book, while sweeping, is light and approachable, telling the stories–sometimes rambunctious, sometimes appalling–of how a glorified monkey transformed its own environment beyond all recognition. In order to begin reversing our environmental disaster, we must have a better understanding of our own past and the incalculable environmental costs incurred at every stage of human innovation. Cataclysms offers that understanding and the hope that we can now begin to reform our relationship to the Earth.
Categories: History Year:2020″
https://b-ok.cc/book/6153994/d32049
No Cancer does it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
No Cancer does it half as good as you
Humans, you’re the best
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Peter Watts is an angry aware Canadian who every once in a long while writes a good essay.
My favorite quote by Watts is:
Today Watts wrote a good news essay on Covid which I paste in full here.
https://www.rifters.com/crawl/?p=9711
More quotes and another good essay by Watts here:
https://un-denial.com/2018/10/30/by-peter-watts-the-adorable-optimism-of-the-ipcc/
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Excellent. Hopefully Covid will reduce female fertility too.
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1 fertile woman +100 fertile men = 1 pregnancy
100 fertile men + 1 fertile man = 100 pregnancies
It is women that control the birthrate.
There was mention by Pfizer ex president that the mRNA could affect female reproduction, so still could be in luck yes?
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ahem…only with a uterus transplantation under the second scenario if I am not mistaken.
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I get angry at people who think inflation is higher prices and deflation is lower prices, like today’s muddled thinking from Charles Hugh Smith.
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/01/a-few-notes-on-deflationinflation.html
If the price of food goes up because climate change reduces crop yields, it’s not inflation. It’s a natural market response to falling supply with steady demand.
If, on the other hand, the price of food goes up because the government prints money to subsidize their citizen’s income, that is inflation. It’s more money chasing the same supply.
Inflation should be defined as the ratio of money to available goods and services.
Then maybe we could shut up the boneheads who think MMT has no consequences.
And maybe support would grow for an energy backed monetary system, since energy unpins everything we buy, and the money supply would automatically grow or shrink with available energy, thus avoiding economic catastrophes that undermine civilization.
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Here is how to use Markdown for formatting comments:
https://wordpress.com/support/markdown-quick-reference/
Link also added to the Resources section in the sidebar.
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This is excellent! I’ll be using it often henceforth. Thanks Rob.
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A non-doomer friend sent me this video on the unfairness of Canada’s central bank QE policy.
I replied with this comment…
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How long will it take, till we will be finally driving off the cliff? Do we have enough time for the undenial, honest alternative?
I do not think so. To many fuses have been burnt near to the end!
To all: What is your guess?
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It’s a good question and most people agree with you. We’ll find out the answer before too long. I think a bigger bubble pops with a bigger bang and the farther we fall the harder it will be to pick up the pieces.
I guess if you believe there is no civilization beyond the next economic crash then it makes sense to keep kicking the can. I think there is something beyond the crash and I would prefer it was not despots and war.
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I would prefert he same!
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How many historical examples are there where ‘they’ giving it to citizens resulted in social unrest from higher food and energy prices?
There’s an entire tome of historical examples of social unrest & suffering of millions when there is a too big wealth gap & concentration of power. It also never gets corrected without much blood & death.
It’s all econ 101 bullshit anyway, which is the not science, but rather the legitimizing of the status quo & ruling class under all circumstances.
How many trillions of QE free money have they handed out to the already rich in the last 12 years?
Did it result in inflation of private jets, luxury yachts, 3rd, 4th & 5th vacation mansions & high dollar whores?
If they did supplement incomes and/or give UBI at 2-3x’s greater than current monthly income assistance (welfare) or employment insurance (unemployment insurance) & there was inflation, how would you know that’s the reason why.
Seems to me food & energy prices have steadily risen over the past 12 years & a handful of emergency covid payments the last year is the only ‘free money’ for the plebs.
I don’t comment much about economics, because I don’t like using the terminology of what’s essentially a quasi religious pseudo science. It’s not just me. Plenty of main stream
priestseconomists & big finance scammers (most often retired) have said the same.The new astrology
By fetishising mathematical models, economists turned economics into a highly paid pseudoscience
“Unlike engineers and chemists, economists cannot point to concrete objects – cell phones, plastic – to justify the high valuation of their discipline. Nor, in the case of financial economics and macroeconomics, can they point to the predictive power of their theories. Hedge funds employ cutting-edge economists who command princely fees, but routinely underperform index funds. Eight years ago, Warren Buffet made a 10-year, $1 million bet that a portfolio of hedge funds would lose to the S&P 500, and it looks like he’s going to collect. In 1998, a fund that boasted two Nobel Laureates as advisors collapsed, nearly causing a global financial crisis.
The failure of the field to predict the 2008 crisis has also been well-documented. In 2003, for example, only five years before the Great Recession, the Nobel Laureate Robert E Lucas Jr told the American Economic Association that ‘macroeconomics […] has succeeded: its central problem of depression prevention has been solved’. Short-term predictions fair little better – in April 2014, for instance, a survey of 67 economists yielded 100 per cent consensus: interest rates would rise over the next six months. Instead, they fell. A lot.
Nonetheless, surveys indicate that economists see their discipline as ‘the most scientific of the social sciences’. What is the basis of this collective faith, shared by universities, presidents and billionaires? Shouldn’t successful and powerful people be the first to spot the exaggerated worth of a discipline, and the least likely to pay for it?
In the hypothetical worlds of rational markets, where much of economic theory is set, perhaps. But real-world history tells a different story, of mathematical models masquerading as science and a public eager to buy them, mistaking elegant equations for empirical accuracy.”
https://aeon.co/essays/how-economists-rode-maths-to-become-our-era-s-astrologers
Another reason talking about how the pie should be divided is because there are only a few ways it gets divided more fairly & none of them involve talking….unless you count screams of pain & horror talking.
The Only Thing, Historically, That’s Curbed Inequality: Catastrophe
Plagues, revolutions, massive wars, collapsed states—these are what reliably reduce economic disparities.
“Calls to make America great again hark back to a time when income inequality receded even as the economy boomed and the middle class expanded. Yet it is all too easy to forget just how deeply this newfound equality was rooted in the cataclysm of the world wars.
The pressures of total war became a uniquely powerful catalyst of equalizing reform, spurring unionization, extensions of voting rights, and the creation of the welfare state. During and after wartime, aggressive government intervention in the private sector and disruptions to capital holdings wiped out upper-class wealth and funneled resources to workers; even in countries that escaped physical devastation and crippling inflation, marginal tax rates surged upward. Concentrated for the most part between 1914 and 1945, this “Great Compression” (as economists call it) of inequality took several more decades to fully run its course across the developed world until the 1970s and 1980s, when it stalled and began to go into reverse.
This equalizing was a rare outcome in modern times but by no means unique over the long run of history. Inequality has been written into the DNA of civilization ever since humans first settled down to farm the land. Throughout history, only massive, violent shocks that upended the established order proved powerful enough to flatten disparities in income and wealth. They appeared in four different guises: mass-mobilization warfare, violent and transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic epidemics. Hundreds of millions perished in their wake, and by the time these crises had passed, the gap between rich and poor had shrunk.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/scheidel-great-leveler-inequality-violence/517164/
There will be another trillion words written & spoken today trying to analyze the big mess the US has become. Look no further than James Carville – ‘It’s the economy stupid’. Most of the MAGA-tard cosplay terrorist/protesters are bottom feeders with not much left to lose who’ve been duped & had their justifiable anger at a system that’s been fucking them for decades redirected at most of the wrong people & only half (left jersey wearing half) of the establishment. They’re basically political cannon fodder & so are Antifa, etc. They’re all walking Jay Hanson’s Overshoot Loop steps 3, 4 & 5.
Declining net energy, yes, but that is not a free pass, nor a complete explanation for the unprecedented concentration of wealth & power. Much of that is pure greed & criminality which flourish in the later stages of decline.
Here is a synopsis of the behavioral loop described above:
Step 1. Individuals and groups evolved a bias to maximize fitness by maximizing power, which requires over-reproduction and/or over-consumption of natural resources (overshoot), whenever systemic constraints allow it. Differential power generation and accumulation result in a hierarchical group structure.
Step 2. Energy is always limited, and overshoot eventually leads to decreasing power available to some members of the group, with lower-ranking members suffering first.
Step 3. Diminishing power availability creates divisive subgroups within the original group. Low-rank members will form subgroups and coalitions to demand a greater share of power from higher-ranking individuals, who will resist by forming their own coalitions to maintain power.
Step 4. Violent social strife eventually occurs among subgroups who demand a greater share of the remaining power.
Step 5. The weakest subgroups (high or low rank) are either forced to disperse to a new territory, are killed, enslaved, or imprisoned.
Step 6. Go back to step 1.
The above loop was repeated countless thousands of times during the millions of years that we were evolving[9]. This behavior is inherent in the architecture of our minds — is entrained in our biological material — and will be repeated until we go extinct.
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Historic examples of inflation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperinflationary_periods
A reality based approach to our problem could have addressed wealth inequality. For example, “we need to print money and pump assets to avoid collapsing the economy, but we’re also going to implement a new capital gains tax to prevent a widening of the wealth gap, and use these taxes to pay down public debt which will stabilize the currency and benefit everyone as we all become poorer fairly together”.
Denial of reality has led us to the worst of all possible outcomes.
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Rob, this is the video where I focus almost entirely on supporting people in deeply adapting to what’s real and what’s coming, as well as to (as my previous comment suggested) “Live Life Fully and Love the Life You Live, Even at TEOTWAWKI.”
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Everyone’s going crazy.
Joe Rogan’s been focused on extraterrestrial aliens for the last couple weeks.
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On aging gracefully…
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Mark Knopfler is a most special guitarist. It doesn’t hurt that his songwriting and singing voice are also exceptional. Great post, thanks Rob.
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Dude! Knopfler is so beyond “special guitarist” he is like a friggin God. Check him out playing with Chet Atkins.
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I agree. I bought that album with Chet Atkins the year it was released which makes me pretty old.
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Nice discussion of the politics opposing population reduction laws.
https://steadystate.org/population-growth-the-ironic-vexer/
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Is this mania another form of genetic reality denial?
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/01/21/time-to-worry-about-stock-market-leverage-again-another-wtf-sign-the-zoo-has-gone-nuts/
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Alice Friedemann is working on a new book “Wood World”. Her last book, “When Trucks Stop Running” was very good.
There’s just one problem with Friedemann’s vision for a wood based future. Trees worldwide are sick and dying due to a rising level of ground level ozone that is a byproduct of industrial combustion as researched and explained by Gail Zawacki at http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/.
http://energyskeptic.com/2021/renewables-not-enough-minerals-energy-time-or-clean-and-green/
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BtD and I had lunch with Alice Friedemann once, years ago. It was very enjoyable, even though I found we could not agree on doom. Alice was convinced then that (she felt, according to her reading of scientific/economic/geological assessments) fossil fuels would run out before climate change could become catastrophic, never mind an existential threat. This is after all, the contradictory message we receive from various experts. http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2014/03/letting-illusions-die.html
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Hi Gail, quite a few peak oilers share Alice’s view but the winds may be shifting. Three years ago I had a spirited exchange with Nate Hagens about the severity of climate change. He tried to convince me that energy depletion would avoid the worst scenarios. In an interview last year I noticed that Nate was taking climate change much more seriously. It’s getting pretty hard to deny the reality of CC given daily news.
Wish you’d come out of retirement and write again.
P.S. To other readers. BtD is BenjaminTheDonkey who writes excellent themist limericks here:
http://benjaminthedonkey-limericksofdoom.blogspot.com/
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Thanks, Rob! Nate and I had that same disagreement more than once, but unlike with Alice it was rather acrimonious as I recall, since he was – at least at the time – quite dismissive. Then again, Peter Kalmus blocked me on twitter ages ago for being too pessimistic, and look at him now lol! I don’t write anymore because 1. it won’t make any difference, I don’t see the point in continuing to count the angels dancing on the top of the pin and 2. I had enough with the personal attacks which got pretty vicious, so I just stay in my safe online group (You should come back, we all miss you! It is smaller now & called Shelter from the Storm) and 3. I don’t want to be on the first bus to the gulag. https://www.propublica.org/article/the-climate-crisis-is-worse-than-you-can-imagine-heres-what-happens-if-you-try?
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/science/2020/07/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-more-vulnerable-to-melting-than-thought
According to this article, 400 000 years ago part of the East Antarctic ice sheet disappeared. West antarctica became largely ice free too. That was when there was only 300 ppm CO2.
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I understand. I still cling to this vain idea that it’s a worthwhile endeavor to prove to the universe that a few monkeys can break through their genetic denial of reality.
I’m thinking you and I are getting too old to have worry about anyone wasting diesel on shipping us to the Gulag. 🙂
If you move your group to a platform that is less evil than Facebook I’d probably rejoin.
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Tim Morgan today on fiat…
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2021/01/22/188-can-we-track-the-fate-of-fiat/
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I received the Moderna C-19 vaccine yesterday afternoon. My left deltoid muscle (injection site) is sore and I’m having some fatigue and general malaise but nothing serious or otherwise concerning. I’ll provide un-Denial readers an update in a week or so and again after receiving the second dose as I think it’s important for us to provide one another feedback on our experiences with these vaccines.
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Thank you for updating us.
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We will need updates for the next 10 years. To know long term consequences.
If you die in the next year from covid, do we blame covid or the vaccine?
Wish you all the best.
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Went grocery shopping yesterday. The stores were well stocked. No big signs of inflation. Everything feels normal other than people wearing masks and keeping their distance. I suspect we are in the calm before the storm, but maybe I’m wrong and we’ll squeeze a few more good years out of the system. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/01/23/build-back-later/
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Xraymike79 was good today, if you ignore the concluding partisan politics.
I agree with him, but very much like having the extra understanding that our unique intelligence exists, and is destructive, because we evolved to deny unpleasant realities.
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2021/01/23/were-all-just-temporary-passengers-on-spaceship-earth/
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Good thing the UK voted to go local and doesn’t need the Chunnel any more.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/01/23/eurostar-near-collapse-asks-for-bailout-becomes-hot-potato/
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Fast Eddy @ OFW today discussed the topic of my post, but added some conspiracy to spice it up.
I don’t think you need conspiracy to conclude that our leaders are taking advantage of the pandemic to do what they think must be done. I think they have good intentions but their plan won’t work because they don’t understand the problem.
I hope to write about the Great Reset soon, which has been publicly explained by our leaders and is available for anyone to see. There’s no need to assume conspiracies.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/01/12/2021-more-troubles-likely/comment-page-28/#comment-276950
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That’s a good summary Rob. I think global warming is a problem, but it’s not the problem of the hour which is more immediate and has to do with oil and petrodollars, regardless of what Greta Thunberg says. Gold, Bitcoin, UBI and digital currency won’t solve the problem. The exponential curves, the LTG curves, the sharkfin curve are all pointing towards collapse. What you don’t want is to incite so much chaos that distribution channels are cut and society immediately goes into a chaotic collapse. Suppression and strategic pruning of various sorts will work better. But the suppression may create an explosion at any time. I don’t think people, in their current state, will welcome being incarcerated in an electronic pen without property or control over their lives. It seems we may lose life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The retreat has begun and it’s going to be a long trail of tears or worse, a death march.
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“I dare you to ask anyone what they think about peak oil — I can anticipate the response …”
So can I, “peak what?”….”is he that new hip hop superstar?”
When you’ve spent most of your free time over the last 10-20 years on peak oil/collapse blogs it’s easy to trick your self into thinking your fringe topics of interest are common knowledge. Doubly so for halfwits like slow Eddy.
“6. Anyone who attempts to puncture this Big Lie — gets drowned out or deleted… Planet of the Humans which explodes the lie and was getting traction ”
Sure thing Slow Eddy, except in this case the main ‘Anoyone’s’ behind the banning of ‘Planet of the Humans’ are the very same ‘Anyone’s’ you accuse of being behind The other Big Lie – “Gl War m ing”.
Typical of habitual conspiracy tards to have major contradictions. Do they not see them or just not care?
Michael Moore film Planet of the Humans removed from YouTube
This article is more than 7 months old
British environmental photographer’s copyright claim prompts website to remove film that has been condemned by climate scientists
“YouTube has taken down the controversial Michael Moore-produced documentary Planet of the Humans in response to a copyright infringement claim by a British environmental photographer.
The movie, which has been condemned as inaccurate and misleading by climate scientists and activists, allegedly includes a clip used without the permission of the owner Toby Smith, who does not approve of the context in which his material is being used.”
“Planet of the Humans, which has been seen by more than 8 million people since it was launched online last month, describes itself as a “full-frontal assault” on the sacred cows of the environmental movement.
Veteran climate campaigners and thinkers, such as Bill McKibben and George Monbiot, have pointed out factual errors, outdated footage and promotion of myths about renewable energy propagated by the fossil fuel industry. Many are dismayed that Moore – who built his reputation as a left-wing filmmaker and supporter of civil rights – should produce a work endorsed by climate sceptics and right-wing thinktanks.
Several have signed a letter urging the removal of what they called a “shockingly misleading and absurd” documentary. Climate scientist Michael Mann said the filmmakers “have done a grave disservice to us and the planet” with distortions, half-truths and lies.
On Moore’s official YouTube channel, the usual link to the film has been replaced by a page noting “Video unavailable. This video is no longer available due to a copyright claim by a third party.” On the Planet of the Humans website, the link to the full movie is also dead, though the trailers and other video material are functioning as normal.”
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/may/26/michael-moore-film-planet-of-the-humans-removed-from-youtube
I’ll wager Big Green Energy was pressuring too.
I’ve spoken out to Gail, more than once, about Slow Eddy & a handful of other fuck-head regulars & her silence spoke her choice. She’s an enabler.
How ironic that an eddy has no clue as to why he’s circling the drain.
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Baba Brinkman wrote a new rap about molten salt nuclear reactors. I left this comment on YouTube:
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The Climate Crisis Is Worse Than You Can Imagine. Here’s What Happens If You Try.
A climate scientist spent years trying to get people to pay attention to the disaster ahead. His wife is exhausted. His older son thinks there’s no future. And nobody but him will use the outdoor toilet he built to shrink his carbon footprint.
“What happens if a human — or to be precise, a climate scientist, both privileged and cursed to understand the depth of the problem — lets the full catastrophe in?”
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-climate-crisis-is-worse-than-you-can-imagine-heres-what-happens-if-you-try
WOW, he still has a wife.
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LOL, it’s my reading for later tonight. Gail Zawacki also posted it above. Must be good. 🙂
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It was very good article. Thanks for the link. My family is in complete denial and thinks I am the crazy one (and maybe I am – I’m marginally depressed all the time. His wife is at least somewhat aware. Mine won’t take money out of her 401k or get Social Security because she thinks she will need it in 10 years (if we only had that long ;).
AJ
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I think it’s possible to be aware and not depressed. It’s very cool to have a brain that emerged from a cloud of hydrogen and understands why it understands that it is at the peak of a very rare event in the universe. Where else would you prefer to be? Enjoy!
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My daughter got angry at me for ranting about climate change and suggested I do something about it. So I told her she couldn’t travel overseas for university. We don’t talk any more.
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Are you serious or is this just a great story? Either way, bravo!
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Sad but true.
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Surely it’s impossible that this bloke wouldn’t know that the single biggest contributor to CO2 emissions is having a child. Yet there they are, with not one,but two. The hand-wringing about ‘We couldn’t let little Johnny be an only child ‘ is just dumb. As if the child is going to be devoid of interactions with other childern. What percentage of people
would have preferred to have been an only child,for various reasons. Bullying by a sibling, no time for solitude with all the other kids around all the time,etc. ? Craig Dilworth wrote a good book titled ‘Too Smart for our own Good. ‘
It would be even easier to write a book on how we are ‘Too Dumb for our own Good’.
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Global Ice Loss on Pace to Drive Worst-Case Sea Level Rise
A new study combines ice melt data from all sources to reaffirm one of the most serious climate change threats.
“New research shows the annual melt rate grew from 0.8 trillion tons in the 1990s to 1.3 trillion tons by 2017, and has accelerated most in the places with the most ice—the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelves and sheets.
Those massive systems of land and sea-based ice are melting as fast as the worst-case climate scenarios in major global climate reports, said Thomas Slater, a co-author of the new study in The Cryosphere that measured the meltdown from 1994 to 2017, which covers a timespan when every decade was warmer than the previous one and also includes the 20 warmest years on record.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25012021/global-ice-loss-sea-level-rise/
The Great Lakes just set a record for lack of ice
“Most years, by January the majority of the Great Lakes are so cold they look like a scene from “Frozen.” This year, that’s not the case.
In fact, the Great Lakes are currently dealing with record low ice. According to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), the Great Lakes total ice coverage right now is sitting at 3.9%. This same time last year, it was sitting at 11.3%, and the year before at 18.5%.”
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/great-lakes-just-set-record-114653357.html
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Climate change creating vast new glacial lakes, with risk of ‘gargantuan’ floods, researcher says
Amount of water in glacial lakes has jumped by 50% globally since 1990, study finds
The Bow Glacier in Banff National Park melts into a small alpine lake that feeds Bow Glacier Falls. As glaciers shrink due to climate change, Canadian glacial lakes have swollen by about 20 per cent, and even more in British Columbia and Yukon.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/climate-change-glacial-lakes-flooding-canada-calgary-1.5706477
Fly over a melting Haig glacier to see how it could change the Alberta-B.C. border (great video)
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1736842819874
I grew up, for a time, 80 km south of Haig glacier. If I can, I’ll go back there to die. In the bush on the banks of the Elk River.
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Trust the morons in the news media to investigate an existential issue and then to focus on the one aspect that’s totally irrelevant: the BC/Alberta border is shifting a little. They should be talking about the destruction of civilization but that somehow flew over their heads. You can’t make this shit up. Thank god Varki is there to explain this madness.
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Mac10 spun a few sharp words today…
https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2021/01/how-to-create-bidless-market.html
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I watched the news tonight and learned something very profound.
Good paying union jobs, fixing climate change, building back better from the pandemic, and addressing racial inequality can all be fixed with clean energy.
Who knew? What a relief!
All we needed was the political will to build more solar panels and electric cars.
Reality denial is apparently a non-issue, maybe it’s time to admit I was wrong and close this blog.
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Ugh!
I’m just now reading the galley of “Bright Green Lies”, by Derrick Jensen, Lierre Keith, and Max Wilbert. It’s awesome (a denial free zone, for sure)!
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Hey, I’ve got an idea …let’s you and me deny that there are those in denial of denying ANYTHING! 🙂
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LOL. 🙂
PBS was gushing over Biden’s announcements today. They interviewed a representative of the petroleum industry that tried to explain that nothing works without oil. They cut him off. No interest whatsoever in exploring reality.
Even though I understand it, I’m still regularly shocked at the power of denial to override intelligence and common sense.
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Stumbled on some sad news today when working on my music collection. Jerry Jeff Walker died last October. My friends and I had many fun parties in the 80’s drinking and singing his songs. I saw him live around 1982 at a little coffee bar in Vancouver when he was at a low point in his career. Had a dream for many years to travel to Austin Texas for one of his legendary birthday parties but never followed through.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Jeff_Walker
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Another doomer loses his mind.
aka, We live on a Margulis planet of love.
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Correct me if I am wrong;) Natural Selection is about reproductive fitness. Anything that augers better reproductive fitness is evolutionarily advantageous (and could survive). If a situation, such as the endosymbiosis of a prokaryotic cell with an ingested thing (mitochondrial organism) is advantageous (and MPP is operational) then Natural Selection through evolution would preserve that relationship. That the relationship between both the previously prokaryotic cell and the “thing” it ingested is good for the “thing” is not being selected for in the prokaryotic cell. Each entity(both the prokaryotic cell and the mitochondrial thing) is pursuing its own reproductive fitness. Everybody is smarted than Darwin (I think not). I think Ugo is on shaky ground – but I could just be a fool too. IMHO I am a fool.
AJ
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Does this mean we have to become part of the 5G internet of things?
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I don’t understand the essence of his new message.
It’s probably something like “don’t worry be happy because we’re all connected by love and the universe is unfolding as it must”.
A much better story for the grandchildren than those gloomy Seneca curves.
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The 5G changes your dna so it can be read by the CIA with chemtrails.
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LOL. If the CIA loses your data due to a hard drive failure, the Chinese have a backup thanks to SolarWinds.
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New resource added to sidebar, a Sankey diagram for US energy flows, created by Saul Griffith.
http://energyliteracy.com/
https://www.otherlab.com/blog-posts/us-energy-flow-super-sankey
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Tim Watkins today explains what the UK could do, but won’t do, and why thanks to the MPP and denial, it is screwed.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/01/29/the-great-train-wreck/
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Yeah, the same awaits the U.S.of A. I just wonder how much of Biden’s $1.9 TRILLION “plan” is just giveaways to the top 10%/Wall Street/Banks and how much is for wasting on Green New Deals? Humans can’t seem to understand anything except MORE! (MPP at work?, denial is at least working overtime!!).
AJ
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Some smart kids on social media with very little capital are fucking over billion dollar pig hedge funds.
I love it.
This guy explains how it works.
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Late to the party but love the conversation. I have been talking about all this for forever.
I usually start my talk asking how many people in the room have or have had a dog. Usually nearly all respond affirmative. Then I say I will bet you $100 I could make that loving, cuddly, best friend ever bare its teeth, growl, and possibly even bit you. Lots of “no way man, not good ol’ Rags”. I said all you need to do is put the dog outside with no shelter and little or no food for a few days. Then bring out a chicken drumstick and hold it close to him and when he starts to eat it yank it away. I don’t recommend you try this but I guarantee you will get a negative response, perhaps even before the drumstick. Dogs are just bad and there is no hope for them,LoL! Obviously we would never do this to our beloved pet. In fact we lavish between $60 to $75 BILLION on our pets every year. In fact we often treat our pets better than we treat our fellow human beings.
Point is we have organized ourselves, or I should say we have allowed ourselves to be organized under a system that is specifically designed to bring out the worst behavior humans are capable of and we do this knowing full well that we are capable of those terrible things and the conditions that are guaranteed to elicit those responses. Then we all love to point out bad behavior and condemn those people, then we condemn all of humanity as being bad and that that is just our nature and can’t be helped. Insane logic if you ask me.
I do like Hansons list of solutions. I would add that we need to educate /reeducate humanity that we can not allow any activity or actions that we know will elicit bad behavior in fact we must make sure we do everything we can to insure that doesn’t happen. We need to treat people like dogs ;-}
Cheers!
jef
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Hi jef, welcome.
There are many things we should do but won’t. Nothing can or will change in a good direction until the majority understands its genetic tendency to deny unpleasant realities, and that’s not likely because it seems denial of denial is the strongest form of denial.
https://un-denial.com/denial-2/theory-short/
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Actually, I believe that “nothing can or will change in a good direction”, period. It’s way too late for that and Rob knows it. This is precisely why I created this practical video for those who GET doom but ultimately are able to move to, what I call, “Post-Doom” (see definitions at this link: “Post Gloom: Deeply Adapting to Reality”:
If you’re interested, you can find 75 “post-doom conversations” here: https://postdoom.com/conversations/
I keep inviting Rob, whom I’m sure would be great! But he keeps humbly declining. Rob???
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Oops. forgot to include the link, to my “Unstoppable Collapse: How to Avoid the Worst” video, that honors Varki’s view of denial AND an evidential understanding of (A) our perspective and (B) what we may still be capable of doing (and what might keep from making a bad situation catastrophically worse) in this hourlong video that I know you, Rob, know about.
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Hey Michael,
Just wanted to say what a fantastic job you have done of your presentations. I have watched them all.
Also thanks for all the audio books. I am so used to your voice reading all the must reads/listens of books on collapse. What an incredible amount of work you have put in.
thanks
Nik
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Thanks, Nik!
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Rob – I appreciate your perspective and I agree that we will not do anything preemptively, nothing positive at least. I do believe that there is a chance that there will be an inflection point, possibly during the bottleneck but maybe after, if there is an after, where we may have the opportunity to restructure to some degree. It is this point that I teach for, along with all the doom, if for no other reason than to avoid starting the madness all over.
I reciently listened to Nate Hagens and he too seems to have this mentality.
“The real problem of humanity is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology.”
https://www.ecoshock.org/2020/01/nate-hagens-the-collision.html
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Yes, I respect Nate Hagens and have posted a lot of work by him over the years:
https://un-denial.com/?s=nate+hagens
Nate did a half dozen or so interviews last year (not posted here) that you can find on YouTube in which he discusses how Covid could be leveraged to implement some pro-future changes.
Another very smart person who understands energy, has not given up, and has some interesting ideas for keeping modern civilization going, is Saul Griffith.
I think the key question to focus on for both Hagen’s and Griffith’s plans is, do we have enough surplus fossil energy left that we can divert to implement a new energy infrastructure, and can this new system be self-sustaining?
I suspect not, and I expect a climate incompatible with large scale civilization is now unstoppable, which is why I favor policies for rapid population reduction.
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I don’t mean to speak for Nate but I an certain that he would call Griffith’s plans delusional. Please listen to his talk on ecoshock for his latest evolved thinking.
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Yes, I know Nate well enough to believe you are correct.
Saul Griffith would probably say Nate is delusional for believing that peak oil will save us from a climate incompatible with modern civilization.
I say both Nate and Griffith are delusional for not focusing on democratically supported rapid population policies, because everything else is a complete waste of time.
Both Nate and Griffith would probably say I am delusional for believing that evolved denial of unpleasant realities explains the singular existence of a species that can create, understand, and not even discuss the overshoot predicament we are in.
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Rob – You might be on to a new and in my opinion better hypothesis.
Maybe you should rename your site un-delusional
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I’m not following you. That is the hypothesis of this site.
https://un-denial.com/2015/11/12/undenial-manifesto-energy-and-denial/
Please explain if I’m missing something important you’re trying to say.
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I need to watch the hour long interview, but the three minute summary states the obvious: after the point of generation, electricity is much more efficient than fossil fuels. What it doesn’t state is more telling: a kg of fossil fuel is a lot more energy dense than 1 kg of batteries. Its energy density overwhelms its inefficiency.
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I’ve followed Saul Griffith for many years. He is REALLY smart, and is an energy expert. So how do I reconcile this with your observations? I think it’s another example of how powerful the human tendency to deny unpleasant realities is.
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Indeed it is. I listened to the long interview. He mentioned batteries a couple of times, but their lack of density compared to fossil fuels isn’t important. He does realize (of course) the necessity of mass batteries. He also did not say how they would be made solely by electricity.
He also doesn’t realize that, to maintain our way of living, we need to produce more and more debt forever because the surplus energy isn’t there. That’s just my opinion, though. It won’t be a binge of borrowing to give us a glorious future.
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Here is more detail on Griffith’s plan.
https://saulgriffith.medium.com/if-i-were-secretary-of-energy-b740d6aedd54
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The climate emergency speech Saul Griffith wrote for Biden…
https://saulgriffith.medium.com/if-i-were-writing-the-new-presidents-climate-emergency-speech-fddaee3a60fc
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The third paragraph (Given the right resources….) is magical thinking. We don’t have the enormous amounts of energy and materials required to change an energy system that is currently around 85% fossil -fuel based into an
energy system that is 60% or 70% supplied by rebuildables or nuclear plants by 2035. Oil is plateauing,copper
ores being mined now are about 0.4 % Cu.,etc,etc..
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Alice Friedemann today on why we should not plan on having digital electronics in our future.
http://energyskeptic.com/2021/microchips-detailed-description/
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Moore’s Law is No More
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Yes that’s true. But it was nice to see the underdog AMD breath a little life into the CPU market last year.
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Good one today from Richter.
The Stock Market Is Broken, Now for All to See
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Tim Watkins today on genetic reality denial, but no mention of Varki’s MORT…
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/02/01/trading-safety-for-peace-of-mind/
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As you know, Rob, I spoke to Tim at some length: https://youtu.be/eV2-PiDrIQ8
I honestly doubt he even knows about Varki. I suggest you reach out to him.
It’s inconceivable to me that he doesn’t know and value your work!
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All credit goes to Varki. My role is simply to explain the implications of Varki’s theory. I’ve tried to contact Watkins in the past but he does not permit comments on his essays, and does not provide any means of contacting him that I could find.
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Varki deserves many Kudos, but there’s no book & no ‘undenial.com’ without the late Danny Brower. Technically speaking Varki did not write the book. He finished Brower’s book. I know because Varki told us so.
Brower is the Alfred Russel Wallace of denial.
So where did Brower get the idea? Lifetime of observation & reading is my guess. Humans have been baffled by denial (the other guys denial) since time immemorial.
RIP Danny and thanks for getting the ball rolling.
The Danny Brower Memorial Scholarship was established by the department of Molecular and Cellular Biology to honor the professional accomplishments of Dr. Danny Brower, Professor and scientist for over 25 years at the University of Arizona. In the Fall of 2007, Danny passed away unexpectedly. He was an inspiration to many, not only for his spirit and intellect, but also his ability to see the great potential and many connections between basic and translational science. Danny was widely recognized as an accomplished scientist and academician, as demonstrated by his numerous publications and service as the Head of Molecular and Cellular Biology.
https://mcb.arizona.edu/education/scholarships-and-awards/danny-brower-memorial-scholarship
Brower, Varki & Rob all deserve credit for generating thought & discussion on denial. undenial.com is more than just a blog. It’s a resource gold mine on denial & related topics. Plus I perform here 3 nights a week (2 drink minimum).
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You are absolutely right about Brower deserving credit for the original insight.
I plead innocence for the oversight because on my Welcome page I say:
https://un-denial.com/welcome/
I believe Brower’s idea came from inverting the question most people ask about humans, “What happened during evolution to make human intelligence special?” to the more insightful question, “What has blocked other intelligent social species from evolving the same intelligence as humans?”.
After all, human intelligence is clearly a good evolutionary idea because it’s permitted us to take over the planet. Evolution usually repeats good ideas, like for example, muscles, eyesight, hearing, flight, etc. Why not human intelligence?
Varki did much more than echo Brower’s idea. He made some very important enhancements to the theory.
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-25466-7_6
My contributions to the theory have been to point out that MORT explains why humans can be in a severe state of overshoot facing imminent collapse, and not even discuss it. And why humans are the only species with religions, and why all religions have the common denominator of a belief in life after death.
P.S. I’m checking my inbox every day for an essay from you. We need a new one soon. This post is getting too sluggish because of the large number of comments. I’m working on an essay about The Great Reset but am finding it a slog because most of our world leaders are C students at best, and poor writers, so it’s not enjoyable trying to figure out what the fuck they think is going on and what needs to be done.
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No need to plead, Rob. We all forget about the dead as time passes. It’s normal. I would love to have a long conversation with Danny Brower. Perhaps in Doomer heaven someday. If Danny Brower’s family doesn’t know about undenial.com I think it would be nice if they did.
I caught this last night. One of the first evolutionary psychology books I read – 1994, updated 2018..
‘The Evolution of Desire – David M. Buss’
” If we all want love, why is there so much conflict in our most cherished relationships? To answer this question, argues the prominent psychologist David M. Buss, we must look into our evolutionary past. Based on the most massive study of human mating ever undertaken, encompassing more than 10,000 people of all ages from thirty-seven cultures worldwide, The Evolution of Desire is the first book to present a unified theory of human mating behavior.
In this fully revised and updated edition of The Evolution of Desire, Buss has incorporated the explosion of research in the field of human mating since its original 1994 publication, from startling discoveries about the evolutionary advantages of infidelity and physical attractiveness to new findings regarding sexual orientation, the emotion of sexual disgust, and incest avoidance adaptations.”
http://audiobookbay.nl/audio-books/the-evolution-of-desire-david-m-buss/
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Good find. I’ve queued it on my phone for my walks.
Baba Brinkman consulted David Buss on the lyrics for this rap on human behavior.
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This was David Buss’s response.
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A biofuel rocket launched today.
See, we don’t need no stinking fossil energy to populate Mars you bunch of depressing doomers!
https://www.space.com/blushift-aerospace-launches-stardust-biofuel-rocket
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I’ll volunteer for the first manned Mars mission, but first they’re gonna need to triple the circumference of the rocket to fit my fat ass inside it.
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Suggest you book your flight on a different ship than Starship.
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Rob,
Loved the piece about semiconductors. Truly one of the most complex things humans have made. However, I think the crowning achievement of homo sapiens could still be found on Mars in a half billion years – the Martian rovers. If memory serves me right J. Hansen had a similar idea in his book “Storms of my Grandchildren” where he has an alien arriving on Mars and seeing a hothouse earth and asking why we ruined a garden planet – or something like that.
AJ
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The Rovers were very impressive but I still admire the Apollo missions the most. It’s so much more difficult to keep an animal alive and get it home from another planet, than it is to send one-way some motors and electronics.
https://un-denial.com/2018/04/12/on-apollo-the-most-impressive-human-achievement/
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You’ll probably enjoy today’s video from Scott Manley.
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I’ve more or less tuned out on news about the virus. I am trying hard not to get it, and I’m prepared in case things get worse, but other than that I don’t think about it much.
Andrew Nikiforuk is one of my favorite journalists. He’s Canadian and reasonably aware. When he speaks I listen. His recent essay about the virus is cause for concern.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/01/28/Virus-Changed-Get-To-Zero-Face-Catastrophe/
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This sounds very much like fear mongering. Increased pos “cases” does not necessarily translate to a concomitant increase in mortality. In fact there has been several statements come out that the new variants are not more deadly and some have suggested they may be less deadly. It is too early to say for sure.
What is known is that if the two safe, effective, proven treatments had been applied in mass there would be much less chance of mutation. Instead the “medical experts” tell people to just go home and sit around until they have enough symptoms to go to the hospital. In effect allowing the virus to load up and move from one person to another. The other benefit of using the the two safe, effective, proven treatments early on would be to reduce the possibility of “long covid”.
In my opinion the suppression of these two safe, effective, proven treatments is a crime against humanity…but it is addressing the population thingy I suppose.
https://covid19criticalcare.com/
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I hope you are right that Nikiforuk is fear mongering. He’s been pretty level headed in the past.
I agree about the inexcusable incompetence of our health leaders. It’s so bad that it motivated me to write the post that hosts these comments. I don’t understand how all of our health experts can be globally synchronized in such stupidity.
I don’t agree with you that they are evil with bad intentions, but something very strange is going on.
In addition to everything you said, they still can’t bring themselves to talk about, let alone hand out, cheap safe preventative measures like Vitamin D.
I have Ivermectin in the cupboard and am ready for self treatment if I get the virus.
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Nice comparison of the safety track record of nuclear vs. other forms of energy.
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The problem with this video was that it was looking at current deaths. Sure hydro (dam) failures can be catastrophic BUT civilizational collapse and all those reactors melting down could well be 7+ billion deaths and the end of the biosphere. So . . . the potential from nuclear dwarfs any other source of deaths.
AJ
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You’re right. But nuclear energy highlights another example of reality denial. The people who oppose nuclear want green growth, and they do not expect civilization to collapse soon. If they really believe BAU and growth must continue, then nuclear should be their top priority.
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Huxley says the 20% of us that are highly suggestable have played a large role in shaping history.
I wonder if there is a relationship between suggestibility and denial?
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http://energyskeptic.com/2021/china-prd-most-rare-earth-minerals/
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Corey Bradshaw’s letter to his daughter is very much like what I want to tell our (only) son before I leave this place.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/professor-corey-bradshaws-open-letter-to-his-daughter-please-forgive-us/D44RVQSM2K7USTPP6N424NIDXA/
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Good one, thank you.
It’s refreshing to find a climate scientist that has a broader view of our predicament than simply “we must replace fossil energy with solar panels”.
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Thanks to Kevin Hester for this photo…
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Climate Scientists Erring on the Side of Least Drama
“A paper recently published in Global Environmental Change by Brysse et al. (2012) examined a number of past predictions made by climate scientists, and found that that they have tended to be too conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. The authors thus suggest that climate scientists are biased toward overly cautious estimates, erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions, which they call “erring on the side of least drama” (ESLD).
In this paper, Brysse et al. examined research evaluating past climate projections, and considered the pressures which might cause climate scientists to ESLD.”
“Erring on the Side of Least Drama” (ESLD) to Avoid Alarmism
The IPCC and climate scientists are often accused of “alarmism”, but clearly Brysse et al. demonstrates that these accusations are wholly unfounded and misplaced.
In fact, Brysse et al. suggest that these frequent accusations of “alarmism” and other climate contrarian attacks on climate scientists may be one reason why climate scientists have under-predicted climate change, or erred on the side of least drama.”
https://skepticalscience.com/climate-scientists-esld.html
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This rings true with my experience. Every new climate related prediction I have read over the last 10 years, like for example expected sea level rise, has been worse than it’s predecessor. I don’t remember a single report going in the good direction.
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Gail Tverberg thinks COVID-19 is being used as cover for energy shortages. This is (I think) different than my speculation above which was about subconscious responses to problems.
Gail seems to be suggesting a coordinated plan between the leaders of most countries, many of whom don’t trust each other, and which somehow have succeeded at not leaking the plan after 12 months of execution, which I think is highly improbable.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/02/03/where-energy-modeling-goes-wrong/comment-page-1/#comment-278591
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Yes, it seems Dmitry Orlov believes similarly. http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2021/01/a-beautiful-plan.html
I certainly wouldn’t rule it out, but I’m hardly a true believer. But it doesn’t matter, ultimately, in my worldview.
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A lot of formally wise people are losing their minds. Let me know if you spot me going crazy. 🙂
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Wow. The comment section at Our Finite World is shifting from a focus on non-renewable energy depletion to wide-ranging conspiracy theories. Other sites are doing the same.
We may be observing in real-time the effect of anticipated scarcity on the mammalian brain.
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Rob,
My feeling has always been that conspiracies (as you alluded to above) always require greater coordination, secrecy and competence than most organizations possess in their normal non-conspiracy affairs. That’s why I was always suspected of the “economic theory” that privatization of government services would create greater efficiency and save money for the taxpayer too. In my employment for some 50 years with multiple employers it was my personal perception that most businesses with more than a few employees always made mistakes, omissions, errors, screwups, what have you. It always seemed to me that the “Peter principle” was operational – most managers were incompetents. My experience in the military also corroborated that perception. So, how do organizations pull off conspiracies? You have to keep it really small and really sharply focused and even then the risk of it all collapsing is great. IMHO.
So vast conspiracies I doubt, unless EVERYONE else is in constant denial of the conspiracy – and we don’t deny much around here!
AJ
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Close to the Edge was one of the first albums I bought in the 70’s. Haven’t listened to it in decades until today on a hike. I hoped the title led to wise lyrics relevant to our pickle today, but alas it’s just some stoners musing about spirituality. The music, nevertheless, is very good.
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