Author: Rob Mielcarski

By Mark Williams et al.: The Anthropocene (Human Impact by the Numbers)

Produced energy and the pattern of human population growth from 1750. Utilization of these energy sources, together with the energy used by humans from net primary production, is now approaching the entire energy available to the global ecosystem before human intervention [Barnosky, [1]]. Key to colours: dark blue = coal; dark brown = oil; green = natural gas; purple = nuclear; light blue = hydro; orange brown = biomass (e.g. plants, trees). Data source from http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8936

Humans now consume between 25 and 38% of net primary production of the planet. Human modification and appropriation of NPP, and the production of energy over and above NPP, has been developing over thousands of years, but accelerated markedly from the mid-20th century onward (Figure 1).

Professor Zalasiewicz at the University of Lecister said the last times such huge effects were seen happened 2.5 billion years ago when photosynthesis appeared, and again half a billion years ago when the food web grew more complex.  Although the 5 major extinction events were also huge, “ even measured against these events, human-driven changes to production and consumption are distinctly new.”

Co-author Dr Carys Bennett added: “It is without precedent to have a single species appropriating something like one quarter of the net primary biological production of the planet and to become effectively the top predator both on land and at sea.”

Some of the massive effects humans are having on the planet include mining phosphorus and fixing nitrogen to make fertilizer, burning hundreds of millions of years of fossil fuels, and directing this increased productivity that is well beyond natural levels towards animals re-engineered for our consumption.

Commentary by Alice Friedemann…

http://energyskeptic.com/2016/a-strong-case-for-the-anthropocene-no-other-species-has-ever-consumed-as-much-of-earths-resources-so-quickly/

Original paper…

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015EF000339/full

Renewable vs. Fossil Energy: An Interesting Natural Experiment is Underway in Venezuela

There is an interesting natural experiment underway in Venezuela.

The Venezuelan grid is unable to keep up with demand and electricity shortages are starting to impact their economy.

The government is blaming a prolonged drought for reducing their hydro electricity capacity and have implemented a reduced work week for government workers and scheduled a 4 hour per day blackout to cut electricity consumption.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-27/venezuela-declares-two-day-work-week-in-bid-to-save-electricity

Informed skeptics have shown there is no drought and that the government is blaming drought to cover up inadequate grid maintenance and upgrades.

http://euanmearns.com/more-revelations-on-venezuelas-drought-and-the-guri-dam/

I suspect that the grid maintenance and upgrade problems are caused by low oil prices. Oil accounts for a third of Venezuela’s GDP, 80% of exports, and more than 50% of government revenue. Venezuela claims to have the largest oil reserves in the world but most of these reserves are expensive to extract and uneconomic when prices are low as they are today.

http://www.wired.com/2016/04/venezuelas-economic-success-fueled-electricity-crisis/

It is impossible to maintain complex things when you are broke.

So what we have here is a country that generates over 70% of its electricity from renewable hydroelectric dams, yet their grid is failing because they lack the funds to properly maintain it, because most of their wealth comes from fossil energy that is now uneconomic to produce.

Hydro electricity has the best return on energy invested of all renewable energies. Venezuela’s grid is therefore as good as renewables get and much better than a grid built with solar panels and wind turbines.

This supports my view that it is impossible to have today’s consumption and wealth with 100% renewable energy.

The global economy will be contracting soon due to depletion of non-renewable energy. Reliable electricity, including electricity from renewable sources, may be one of many casualties.

We would be wise to take control of the impending contraction and steer it in an optimal direction, rather than allowing a chaotic collapse to occur.

We need conservation, austerity, wealth gap reduction, and population reduction now.

Addendum…

Hyperinflation is the end game for a country that refuses to live within its means. Venezuela’s money printing is accelerating.

This Is The End: Venezuela Runs Out Of Money To Print New Money

Hyperinflation destroys the wealth of a country’s middle class which makes them very angry.

Hyperinflation is the reason Hitler got into power and is one of the reasons I advocate conservation and austerity.

It would have been easier for Venezuela had they not allowed their population to grow by more than 6 times from 5 million in 1950 to over 33 million today.

http://mazamascience.com/PopulationDatabrowser/index.html?country=VE&language=en

By Dahr Jamail: Global Fisheries Are Collapsing — What Happens When There Are No Fish Left?

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/35574-global-fisheries-are-collapsing-what-happens-when-there-are-no-fish-left

Overfishing and the imminent collapse of global fisheries is an excellent example of how we have used non-renewable energy to over exploit and destroy a renewable resource that will be needed when non-renewable energy is gone.

It’s a similar story for soil, and trees, and wildlife, and fresh water.

There are no villains in this story. Just hard working people trying to provide for their families.

The problem is too many people.

I don’t see any solution that will help except population reduction.

Commercial overexploitation of the world’s fish stocks is severe,” UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said back in 2012. “Many species have been hunted to fractions of their original populations. More than half of global fisheries are exhausted, and a further third are depleted.”

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 85 percent of global fish stocks are “overexploited, depleted, or recovering from depletion.”

Fisheries for the most sought-after species of fish have already collapsed.

The populations of all large predator fish in the oceans have declined by 90 percent in the 50 years since modern industrial fishing became widespread around the world, according to a shocking paper by scientists with Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada, published in Nature in 2003.

Three years after the paper’s publication, the same scientists, along with colleagues from across the world, published an even more startling paper that predicted a total collapse of all fish that are currently caught commercially by 2048.

Many scientists, like Daniel Pauly of the University of British Columbia, have estimated that the total fish catch for the planet peaked back in the mid-1980s, and has been declining ever since.

“The big problem is that we are overfishing,” Boxall told Truthout. “The [fisheries] management isn’t working, and is in fact causing just as much destruction [as] if there was no management in the first place.”

book review: A Full Life: Reflections at Ninety by Jimmy Carter

http://www.amazon.com/Full-Life-Reflections-Ninety/dp/1501115634

Jimmy Carter has long been one of the few world leaders that I respect.

I just finished his latest book which provides a summary of his life and core beliefs.

Jimmy Carter really did have a full life. The breadth of his experience and accomplishments are remarkable and inspirational. He was a farmer, business man, nuclear submariner, wise president, peace envoy, humanitarian, and community leader.

Carter grew up in the depression where he learned the importance of hard work, self-sufficiency, frugality, honesty, and community. These values guided the remainder of his life, including his one term as US president.

I’ve listened many times to Carter’s 1979 speech in which he explains the reality of finite fossil energy and what citizens and government should do in response. It’s by far the best wisdom and policy I’ve ever heard from a leader.

The citizens rejected Carter’s tonic for Reagan’s morning in America. For me this is the saddest point in democratic history.

Carter advocated conservation, austerity, and living within the constraints of non-renewable resources. Instead we chose to use debt to mask reality and to climb a cliff that will be very difficult to safely climb down from.

I read the book primarily because I was hoping to hear his latest insights on energy, environment, and the economy now that 40 years have passed since his presidency. I was disappointed that he said nothing on the topic, nor did he elaborate on his energy position of the 70’s. Most other topics were covered in quite a bit of detail so I found this omission odd. He didn’t hesitate from saying “I told you so” on many other topics. It makes me wonder.

Perhaps Carter’s understanding of thermodynamics and the relationship between energy, environment, and wealth is less than I had hoped. Perhaps his understanding is limited to lessons learned from having to live within meager means during the depression. Perhaps he is afraid to speak about our current situation. I don’t know.

Setting my energy disappointment aside, and turning a blind eye to his religious beliefs, I very much enjoyed the book and recommend it.

Jimmy Carter was and is a great man who lived an inspirational life.

José Mujica

A reader brought to my attention José Mujica as an example of a rare and wise leader.

José Mujica, nicknamed Pepe Mujica, was President of Uruguay from 2010 to 2015. A former Tupamaros freedom fighter in the 60s and the 70s, he was detained, like a hostage by the dictatorship between 1973 and 1985. He advocates a philosophy of life focused on sobriety: learn to live with what is necessary and fairest.

Here is an excellent interview with Mujica:

A few quotes from the interview stood out for me:

Either you’re happy with very little, free of all that extra luggage, because you have happiness inside, or you don’t get anywhere! I am not advocating poverty. I am advocating sobriety.

But since we have invented a consumer society, the economy must constantly grow. If it fails to increase, it’s a tragedy. We have invented a mountain of superfluous needs. Shopping for new, discarding the old… That’s a waste of our lives!

When I buy something, when you buy something, you’re not paying money for it. You’re paying with the hours of life you had to spend earning that money. The difference is that life is one thing money can’t buy. Life only gets shorter. And it is pitiful to waste one’s life and freedom that way.

It is shameful that for 25 years, since the Kyoto Accords, we are still dragging our feet to take basic measures. It is shameful. Man may very well be the only animal capable of self-destruction. The is the dilemma facing us. I only hope that I am wrong.

Ocean Acidification in My Front Yard

 

DSC_0031

This report by Charles Mandel titled “Global emissions triggering “permanent and alarming changes” in West Coast waters” explains that the ocean in front of my house is in serious trouble.

I’ve been frequenting this beach since 1960 and I can see the decline with my own eyes. What was once a diverse and abundant ecosystem is now almost a desert.

I’m sure acidification is just one of many negative pressures at play, but it is no doubt a very powerful force we should worry about.

What I found interesting in this report was its subtext of denial.

It starts out strong…

Changes to the ocean chemistry along the North American West Coast – including along coastal British Columbia – will have “devastating ecological consequences” in the coming decades if immediate action isn’t taken.

The panel said global carbon dioxide emissions are triggering “permanent and alarming” changes.

Then immediately shifts focus to economic harm, because of course the most important thing is lost jobs…

If unchecked, ocean acidification could “set off a domino effect of job losses throughout coastal communities, particularly in places where the fishing industry and coastal tourism provide the economic base,” the report noted.

Then subtly shifts blame for the problem to the Asians…

The acidification of West Coast waters originates with oceanic currents that transport the waters across the northern Pacific Ocean from Asia.

Without mentioning that we produce much more CO2 per capita than the Asians, doubly so if you count the coal the Asians use to generate the electricity they need to produce the goods that fill our Walmart’s.

Then they conclude with actions that should be taken…

Among other things the panel urges ocean management and natural resource agencies to exploring approaches that involve the use of seagrass to remove carbon dioxide from seawater; and identify strategies to reduce the amount of land-based pollution entering coastal waters.

These actions are sadly lame because seagrass was abundant and has mostly disappeared, presumably due to human pressures. And land based pollution is no doubt a problem, but a different problem. To reduce acidification we need to reduce the CO2 level.

Despite 20 years of good intentions CO2 is still rising because CO2 is proportional to human wealth, the population is rising, and everyone wants more wealth.

As usual, they fail to mention the only thing that might help, reducing our consumption and shrinking the global economy.

On the Leap Manifesto

The Leap Manifesto is being discussed within Canadian political circles, and is gaining support from prominent environmental leaders.

The intentions of the Leap Manifesto are admirable, but its thermodynamics are flawed.

Society does not subsidize fossil energy. Fossil energy subsidizes everything in modern society to the tune of over 50 energy slaves per person. These slaves have and will continue to demand more pay because the easy to extract oil is gone. What oil remains becomes more expensive to extract with each passing day.

Do not confuse oil price with cost. The oil price today is low because consumers have maxed out their credit cards and can no longer afford to pay their energy slaves.  Oil companies are going broke because it costs more to extract oil than they can sell it for. Think about this. It’s a big problem.

The fact that our energy slaves have become more expensive than we can afford is the root cause of dangerous worldwide public debt growth, and a fragile economy that has required zero percent interest for 8 years. All of the idiot lights are flashing red on our dashboard if we care to look. The weaker countries are already starting to fail.

It takes fossil energy slaves to make renewable energy slaves. And the renewable energy slaves require even more pay than the fossil energy slaves because their muscles are weaker, and they need some fossil energy to stay fit. For example, think about the roads and trucks and tools and parts needed to maintain a windmill or solar panel.

We need renewable energy and we have no choice but to move in their direction. But we can’t run today’s society with them. Don’t take my word for this. Pay attention. Look for any example in the world that contradicts what I just said. But look honestly. You must include all of the energy that is consumed, including, for example, the coal it took to manufacture the goods, and the oil used to produce and transport the food, that was purchased from another country.

We need to understand our predicament before we can construct useful policies.  And we need to reset our expectations. While we might enjoy 50 slaves today we may have to make do with 5 slaves in the future. That’s still a lot better than most people have enjoyed for the last 10,000 years.

It’s also important to understand that no one is at fault. The last few generations got lucky with a fossil energy windfall. Kind of like mice that had a party in an overturned grain truck.

A deep and honest understanding will lead to policies that emphasize conservation, austerity, population reduction, wealth gap reduction, re-localization, and lastly, renewable energy.

I do not see any mention by the Leap Manifesto of the first 3 and most important items in my list. Conservation, austerity, and population reduction. These are important because we are in severe overshoot and would be wise to voluntarily climb down from the cliff.

It’s doable and desirable. Most people in the developed world consume much more than they need to have happy and healthy lives. All of these policies will help to reduce many serious environmental threats like climate change.

WASF

There is hope, but not for us - Franz Kafka

One portion of the population doesn’t believe humans are in overshoot and therefore sees no need to change their lifestyles.

Another portion is vaguely aware of a problem but prefers not to think about it nor possible changes to their lifestyles.

Another portion believes overshoot is real but thinks others need to change their lifestyles first.

Another portion thinks we have a problem but it is not caused by humans so there is no need to change.

Another portion thinks everything is in the hands of God so there is no need to change.

Another portion thinks they’ve already done enough by buying a new electric car, recycling, and reusing grocery bags.

Another portion believes renewable energy, carbon capture, and other technologies will solve the problem.

Another portion understands the problem but chooses not to change because they do not believe their sacrifices will make a difference.

The balance of the population thinks it’s too late to do anything and therefore see no need to change.

The only thing everyone agrees on is that there is no need to change.

WASF

By NOAA: State of the Climate

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201603

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for March 2016 was the highest for this month in the 1880–2016 record, at 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This surpassed the previous record set in 2015 by 0.32°C / (0.58°F), and marks the highest monthly temperature departure among all 1,635 months on record, surpassing the previous all-time record set just last month by 0.01°C (0.02°F). Overall, the nine highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred in the past nine months. March 2016 also marks the 11th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken, the longest such streak in NOAA’s 137 years of record keeping.

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 2.33°C (4.19°F) above the 20th century average of 3.2°C (37.8°F), the highest March temperature on record, surpassing the previous March record set in 2008 by 0.43°C (0.77°F) and surpassing the all-time single-month record set last month by 0.02°C (0.04°F).

Hat tip Gail Zawacki.

Denial of the Inconvenient Truth: Shrink the Economy or Die

Here we have climate change activist and celebrity Leonardo DiCaprio speaking at the United Nations.

We know from the work of Tim Garrett that CO2 is proportional to wealth. This inconvenient truth is the bedrock of climate change that few activists understand nor want to understand.

The only possible way to reduce the threat of climate change is to shrink the economy.

DiCaprio has a net worth of over $200 million. This means he emits over 8,000 times as much CO2 as the average global citizen. If DiCaprio really wants to do something about climate change he should start by burying his $200 million as cash in his back yard. It’s counterintuitive and an inconvenient truth that spending money on philanthropy or “green” initiatives only makes things worse. We have to remove wealth from the system to reduce CO2 emissions.

From Wikipedia we learn that “DiCaprio owns a home in Los Angeles, California and an apartment in Battery Park City, New York. In 2009, he bought an island off mainland Belize, on which he is planning to create an eco-friendly resort. In 2014, he purchased the original Dinah Shore residence designed by mid-century modern architect Donald Wexler in Palm Springs, California.”

From his UN speech we learn that DiCaprio has probably flown more in the last year than most people fly in a lifetime.

DiCaprio demonstrates his commitment to fighting climate change by buying green things. For example, again from Wikipedia, “He drives environment-friendly vehicles, including an electric Tesla Roadster, a Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid, and a Toyota Prius.”

An all-in life cycle analysis of these vehicles would show they create much more CO2 and other pollution than a cheap economy car, or better yet, a used car. And three “green” cars create three times the CO2 of one car. Where do you think the steel and other materials used to build a car come from, you idiot? Green cars are not built with renewable energy, they are built with fossil fuels. If they were built with renewable energy most people could not afford a car. That’s another inconvenient truth.

Like many activists, DiCaprio doesn’t care about facts.

Setting an example of austerity in your personal life is the first and only place to start if you want to take action on climate change.

DiCaprio has not taken this first step so he should shut up.

I’m sure DiCaprio has good intentions and yet his hypocrisy is so huge and common that evolved denial seems to be the only possible explanation.

It’s pretty simple and an inconvenient truth. We shrink the economy or else we die.