By Charles & Chris: Doomers Anonymous

Le Deluge by Léon Comerre

Un-denial regulars Charles & Chris (aka paqnation) collaborated on this essay exploring the psyche of doomers.

They discuss in detail characteristics common to the doomers they know. I have not observed the same common characteristics in the overshoot aware people I follow, and I elaborate a bit on this at the end of the essay.

It will be interesting to hear from others in the comments what they observe about doomers.

Introduction

Today, we are exploring a topic, which is rarely addressed in the doomosphere. We are not going to describe material limits and extraction trends, evaluate which DEFCON level is currently on, uncover the early and now increasingly advanced signs of collapse, speculate on the origin, mechanism or inevitability of our collective demise, attempt to predict the exact date of societal breakdown, lament over denial, wonder if Good(TM) and nature will prevail, or debate in which exquisite torments the human species will go extinct. But rather, for once, we focus on the personal: we observe the observer.

This is a topic Charles had wanted to explore for quite a long time but didn’t know how to. Following recent comments at un-Denial, Chris privately inquired if he was detecting some bargaining or desperation. This led to an interesting observation: we both recognize how precarious this fleeting moment is in human experience. However, we arrived at different accepting states: Charles tenaciously follows his heart, at his small scale, with faith, whatever the outcome, whereas Chris lives with kindness, relieved to witness the demise of this destructive species. So what would be the common characteristics of doomers? How does this impact their personal life, in particular in their social interactions? And what are some of the strategies that they can deploy to balance their nature?

Disclaimer: we are not trained psychologists. So, although we drew from our personal experiences and observations, there is no claim of any general validity. We still hope this may be of some use, especially, for those, increasingly numerous, who are just starting their journey down doomers’ lane: beware since this is a bumpy route. If not, then just read this piece lightly, on the beach as you would a summer article from Vogue magazine.

Birth and Discovery

Our study starts from the second best resource for any serious contemporary heavily funded research project: Wikipedia (the first one being some AI-powered scam-selling chatbot).

The page on doomers states that they “are people who are extremely pessimistic or fatalistic about global problems”. Well, that’s clearly the description of doomers from the external point of view of a normie. While it is true doomers think most exclusively at the global scale, they would disagree about having a pessimistic perspective. For them, the rest of society suffers from optimism bias, even denial. They would readily argue, some even ferociously, their outlook is realistic, if not the only possible outcome. There is a story behind this stance.

Nobody is born a doomer. Even if there may be some psychological predisposition, anyone can become a doomer. The typical doomer didn’t even willingly decide to become one, in the same way he would start tennis. This is a condition one develops when bitten by a radioactive spider: maybe he read some piece in a newspaper about the end of oil, or was shaken by some internet news about deforestation trends. With the impacts of climate change starting to be tangible, these animals can be encountered in the wild a lot more easily than they used to be. Most of, if not all of, these articles end on a positive note: how some substitutes are being worked on, or some politicians are about to regulate, or how anybody can participate in harm reduction by behaving as a responsible consumer. The soon to become doomer finds himself unknowingly at a turning point, he stands just before the gate which will eventually shake his world upside-down: he can accept the convenient conclusions at face value and forget, or start asking questions.

If he takes the red pill, a series of discoveries and shocks about the “true” nature of his world awaits him. This is the start of a long learning phase, a period of gradual uncovering and revelations. Unrolling the wool ball, teaches him rudiments in fields as diverse as mathematics, history, ecology, system dynamic, physics, evolutionary biology, geology, political science, sociology (and maybe even linguistics), psychology… Every day, he spends multiple hours reading books, listening to experts, skimming the internet in search for obscure blogs, hidden gems of knowledge. And gradually, piece by piece, he patiently assembles a small holistic inner “model of everything”, a mini-world comparable to a computer simulation. With this model, he hopes to understand the world, in its entirety, not only in its current state, but also its origins and future dynamic. He constantly refines the model, incorporates new findings. And he always comes up with the same, disappointing, but inescapable answer: 42. Scratch… Rewind… Sorry, wrong story… The Soon to Be All Ending Catastrophe.

Growth and Action

Once he is completely convinced of the folly of conventional wisdom, the doomer starts to act. In doing so, note that he is still following a very conventional cultural pattern: identify a problem then act in order to reach a solution.

His motivations vary according to his nature: inflect the global dynamic, avert the crash, if only for his group, lessen the blow, or deal with personal guilt or anger. He acts differently according to who he is and what he values: he may become an activist, teach other, learn to live thriftily, disconnect from the machine, travel, even follow a spiritual path. He tries to spread the word, finds his tribe. He may be learning new skills: growing food, doing preserves, managing a stock of perishable goods, metal-work, carpentry, communication, horticulture, bushcraft, homesteading, cooking, knitting, hunting… In some cases, this may go as far as to change him into an accomplished survivalist, a hermit, or even a pagan druid. He is forward-looking, cautious. He likes to stay on the safe side, keep margins of errors. Simultaneously, he is innovating, willing to take risks to explore non-conventional paths. He perceives the unexpected and plans for it. The doomer walks the talk, he is ready to step out of his comfort zone, experiment with activities he doesn’t necessarily (initially) enjoy. This all proves his tenacity, and that he is willing to make genuine sacrifices for the greater good. He is resilient, independent, autonomous. He does not need to rely and may even be defiant towards authority, central power.

This is a time of radical changes: the slow intellectual maturation process of the preceding phase is brought to fruition. This is also a constructive phase in the trajectory of the doomer. He has impacts, some he is unaware of. He can shock other people who may initially reject his perspective, but won’t forget. He rings the alarm bell, plays the societal role of the canary, shows alternative ways of living, out of the norm. Overall, he is able to nudge the collective perception of reality, instill doubt in the official narrative. But until it is the right time, this will not, this cannot scale up.

He thinks global, he expects to see global changes. So he eventually takes notice of the great gap between his efforts and expectations.

Stagnation and Isolation

At this point, he can feel pretty down. The beverage from the doomer’s chalice is about to turn sour. He may have paid, a sometimes pretty heavy, price for following this trail: maybe he lost all interest in his work and was fired, or he was abandoned by friends after repetitive bouts of anger, divorced his wife who couldn’t bear his constant mulling. Seeing the normies still going on with it, his life may not feel as enjoyable: the tasteless military canned food, the cold showers, the lack of finance, the crazy entourage, the aging and aching body, the absence of children’ laughter. Sometimes it feels all he achieved was only to travel down the social ladder and preemptively self-destruct. He may regret his sacrifices. All for nothing.

It seems the doomer is particularly vulnerable and obnoxious in his social interactions. Traveling for so long outside of the societal norm, having to constantly battle one’s beliefs in opposition to the group, is corrosive. It has forged his identity in a way that few can appreciate his company. The doomer is eternally focused on future and grandiose issues, to the point he may disregard immediate concerns or current concrete people’s suffering. This can easily and rightfully be felt as selfishness. It seems he eternally postpones the time he will allow himself to live, to be happy, to be. Instead, it is constant high alert: prepare, anticipate, protect, hide…

More importantly even, he feels he is not being listened to. If only they would follow his plan. If only they would all behave reasonably like himself. However, he never really acknowledges the other party either. He has only one channel of communication: verbal mental logic, within his own little “model of everything” at that. Maybe, he doesn’t understand the other modes of communication, doesn’t know they exist. He will invariably steer discussions towards collapse, like a reliable magnet. He feels it is his duty of explaining the world to other. So he often ends up sounding like a patronizing self-righteous bastard preaching from his ivory tower, a clear know-it-all. He stubbornly offers depressing tales of defeats without any room for breathing. He will not tolerate any difference of opinion or alternative views, about something which is, after all, to a large degree unknown and unknowable. It is never enough, no “solution” can work. No amount of preparation will do, no effort matters, it is never enough. Doesn’t it seem like the opposite, and very similar, side of the growth mentality? And then he rambles about his preferred course of action: the ultimate solution in a long list of solutions which all try to solve problems brought about previous solutions. Some kind of “final solution” of a new kind. Sounds totally reasonable to him. He has lost touch with society. He is now entirely engulfed in a handmade world of his own making, his precious.

If he can control it, a doomer with children can certainly not allow himself to dive, in their presence, that far within the depths of his dark psyche. This would be a sure way to crush them and repeat the curse down the next generation (in the small probability, there is a next generation ;). Are we seeing here a hint of what lies behind many doomer’s mask of cold-hearted objective thinking?

So he avoids social interactions, hides far away to protect oneself and others. His experience of the now, forever tainted by the future imagined catastrophe. A continuous mourning over that which has not yet happened.

Hitting diminishing returns, the doomer’s dynamic has gradually entirely morphed into a nihilistic descent, a downward spiral. The tryptic of fear, anger and sadness overwhelms him. Depression can hit. His activity, fueled by a now sterile obsession, turns compulsive. He keeps on beating the dead horse, eventually becoming a lone addict, fulfilling the prophecy before its time, a potent curse.

Elements of Doomer’s Psychology

Let us pause here for a moment. Being a doomer implies the bondage to a process of both light and darkness: it arises, grows inward, expresses outwards and decays. Why are some people more prone to become doomers than others? Is there some root cause, or is just fluke? And, more importantly maybe, is there life after death (of the arc of doom ;)? Before we attempt to answer these questions, let us recapitulate the psychological traits that seem common to most doomers.

Doomers have an unusual relation with spatial and temporal scales. They see far ahead. This makes them very patient when they need to reach any far-fetched objective. But they need some effort to be present to integrate what’s in their vicinity. They will easily switch off and ruin their immediate experience whenever they are enthralled in thoughts: they can miss many bright aspects of life, the multiple hints of love around them. Especially, since they tend to automatically filter everything which does not interest them. That which does not constitute a threat. They rarely stand still but always run “one step ahead”, thinking about the next move, making predictions. Paradoxically, they can be extremely sensitive to early warning signals, which for them, stand out amidst flows of data. At times, they experience information overload and that may be the real reason they need to isolate themselves. They will integrate in their mental models small details which may have large implications and be able to draw surprisingly accurate conclusions or sometimes turn out radically wrong.

Doomers are very cerebral: they think incessantly. Their inner monologue slithers unabated like a powerful tireless snake. They easily end up caught in obsessive mental loops. This grants them an exceptionally strong will, on the fringe of stubbornness. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be able to live in constant antagonism with most of society. Otherwise, they wouldn’t persevere in things they do not particularly enjoy just to prepare for a potential negative outcome sometimes in the far future (less far now).

Here the figure of Noah, building the gigantic ark on its own, with the help of God only instead of fossil fuels, may come to mind.

And they often excel at thinking: they are rational, logical, uncompromising, independent intellects, who do not trust nor rely blindly on figures of authority. Naturally, they respect people of high integrity, and are particularly skilled at detecting scammers, which they despise with a passion. Even if, sometimes, only the Trickster can allow irreconcilable demands of society to unfold, for better or worse. They work ceaselessly on an impossible project: their intellect wants to encompass even that which cannot, cage absolutely everything in the box of the mind. This is the ultimate quest for total knowledge, the final conquest of light over darkness. Their perfectionist control freak inner voice shouts: “Let them all be statistics, cells in excel sheets! I will make their life perfect. I have a plan.” In combination with their obsessive nature, this makes them inflexible figures easily drawn to dogmatism. Never face a doomer in a confrontational argument on his preferred topic.

Unfortunately for them, this rigidity affects them equally (You shall love your neighbor as yourself): they won’t easily allow themselves to live spontaneously, free from any clear pre-set goal. In that, they ironically have totally internalized the very core of industrial productivism. They have difficulties dealing with their emotions, sometimes even completely severed from them. This may be the key of one of their contradiction: the desire to protect an abstract entity, the whole species, while not noticing the immediate needs of the actual person just in front of them.

The next item on the list may be a consequence of their mental fixation, or just a characteristic prevailing in most dwellers of the modern world. Most doomers seem to have issues with their image of self. It might be incorrectly calibrated: either under or over-valued. Since they believe living conditions are about to become dramatically harsher than they already are, they feel natural to deploy more efforts and expect less rewards than the rest of the pack. Ironically this makes them an ideal target for ruthless practitioners of growth. You may hear them profess implacable credos of flamboyant macho bravado. Are these genuine expressions of their resilience or hints of a lack of confidence, of an underlying fear? “Hard times don’t last, hard people do” can be read in the doomer’s entry of Wikipedia. How much of a doomer’s rational rhetoric hides a self aggrandizing fantasy?

At the opposite end of the spectrum, some doomers display the arrogance of humanism dialed up to the end of the gauge. Isn’t the idea that the collective behavior ought to be controlled, the trajectory of the species planned in order to maximize survivability or minimize suffering, a delusion completely devoid of any humility?

Many doomers identify with a collective: the group of all humans or the whole living planet as a unique organism, Gaïa. Otherwise, how could the consequences of the activities of the whole species be a reason for personal shame? It can be suspected that some doomers have an even more unconventional notion of self: either setting only fuzzy boundaries, or simply considering it as an arbitrary construct of the mind. Who can say what’s what? Holobionts come to mind.

This is all surprising, isn’t it? We would have expected meeting a Cassandra-like creature instead, it’s the Carl Jung archetype of Apollo which seems to be emerging. According to Wikipedia the Apollo archetype:

“personifies the aspect of the personality that wants clear definitions, is drawn to master a skill, values order and harmony. The Apollo archetype favors thinking over feeling, distance over closeness, objective assessment over subjective intuition.”

Apollo, the bearer of light. The enlightenment. The statue of liberty. The Apollo space program. The template of a now bygone era. All his creations turned into a gigantic farce: advanced mathematics powered AI to generate pornographic images of lascivious beings endowed with cat or androgynous attributes (no, this sentence was not generated by a chatbot); extravagant expenditure of engineering, fuel and other resources only to send a few tons of metal into space at 0.00015% the distance to Mars; feats of programming, automation, slavery, life stripping exploitation to publish these words into the great silicon web of matter-less opinions, to reach you…

We can now better understand the doomers’ fascination with derelict places, decay, the morbid. His thoughts are crystallized on the edge of the observable, the end of his light. The fixation aimed at some imagined brief moment in the future: a turning point, a tipping point, the end times, the apocalypse, total annihilation, extinction. Before this point, the dumb masses rule. After, it the doomer won’t need to struggle anymore because all will be over. He is proven right, it’s a victory, a Pyrrhic victory, at last, just before the closing curtain. More importantly maybe, everybody will then experience the same discomfort he finds himself in right now.

Tentative Explanation: Unconscious Root Motivation

This section will be more hypothetical: it’s an attempt at finding some plausible root causes of the doomer’s dynamic.

On the surface, doomers seem to be disappointed idealists. Humanists who are not accepting the failed (in comparison to their own standard) experiment that either the species or this specific culture proves daily to be. They long for a world of reason, beauty or harmony. They simply can’t really get over the large gap between their expectations and reality.

But, really, maybe, idealism was born out of the necessity to compensate an even deeper issue, a trauma, in some form or another. Doomers are in a state of shock. It would explain the fear. It would explain the challenges with the self.

It would explain the addictive behavior. It would explain the propensity for seclusion. It would explain the dissociation from emotions. It would explain the tendency to preemptively put oneself in conditions harsher than needs to be. It would explain the elitism of placing oneself above and untouched, as a neutral observer. It would explain the constant assessment of danger. These are all habits and defense mechanisms adopted during past stressful circumstances. Doomers have been hard-wired, psychologically trained in tough times. What they imagine of the future, is a reflection of their past, now buried in the unconscious. In a way, they are optimized for survival in extreme situations and wither during lax times.

Let us not dwell too long on that, as this is highly circumstantial. Everyone will judge for himself the validity of this hypothesis. Let us just stress the fact that trauma comes in various degrees and does not correspond only to a one-time brutal event but may also be activated by a continuous feeling of danger during childhood.

Family history could play an important role here. We are almost all offsprings of horrors: genocides (Native American, holocausts), slavery, wars; killers, rapists, survivors. There have been so many tragedies in relatively recent human history, that almost no-one is psychologically untouched. So maybe it’s just the normality of life.

In contrast, the western middle class is materially extravagantly sheltered, while totally dependent on an overarching, psychologically oppressive system: replete with propaganda, disheveled morality, betrayals, tricks and manipulations of the mind. This fosters wild imaginations, delusions, various degrees of psychosis. A bit like industrial farm chickens on steroids (which they are not), many haven’t had the opportunity to grow up fully in balance. Diminished humans. Living in this unnatural, bullying society, considering the prospect of shortages, observing from afar, through the distorting lens of the media, the implacable destruction of multiple life forms on the planet is, in itself, enough for trauma. And we are back to a circular argument.

Maturation Out of the Loop of Doom

Are there happy doomers, content with their mental state? Probably.

But doomerism is usually a heavy load to carry. So one might reasonably want to mature past this state, grow out of the addiction and self-destruction. If doomerism is really a consequence of a form of trauma, then it is only natural, this will take some time to resolve. Hopefully, there are many strategies, which, in time, can bear their fruits. These strategies are not a rejection of the rational conclusion of the doomer about the state of the world. That’s one thing. It’s rather a movement of further expansion. It is about the recognition of other aspects, which can coexist with the certainty of collapse:

  • recognition of the destructive effect of doomerism on oneself,
  • recognition of the limits of individual power, to understand and control,
  • recognition of the bounded responsibility of oneself in global issues,
  • recognition of the load that one carries,
  • recognition of the diversity: of forms and beings, down to the way of seeing the world,
  • recognition of the emotions, past and current: anxiety, pessimism, shame, despair, fear, anger, sadness,
  • recognition of that which lies in one’s shadow,
  • recognition of all the things that are going fine, right now, the love around.

Habits and multiple rationalizations of the mind will naturally present themselves and prevent change. They protect the stability of the psychic equilibrium achieved in reaction to past circumstances. This equilibrium has served its purpose and has now become counterproductive. To break the deadlock, there are multiple small practices, which progressively, gently rectify our stance. There is a lot of activities we may choose from, here are a few non-exhaustive examples:

  • breathe, relax, meditate,
  • practice compassion, to others, to yourself,
  • treat yourself, care for yourself, listen to your needs,
  • focus on the small things you have control over, you can handle,
  • congratulate yourself, smile to yourself, pat yourself on the back,
  • cultivate gratefulness: note the things that go well,
  • appreciate the word “enough”,
  • find a safe zone, find your tribe,
  • express yourself,
  • perform service to others,
  • confront your fears by overcoming real world hardships, travel the world, gain confidence,
  • observe events, without tainting, without trying to anticipate,
  • study your thoughts: see their origins, differentiate between the group’s and yours, observe the repetitions, the patterns, the tricks of the mind,
  • keep a log of your predictions: write them down as precisely as possible and then compare with actual events,
  • study your emotions, dive in the darkness of the forbidden ones, do not block them, let them unfold, run their full course,
  • listen to other people’s viewpoints without jumping to conclusion, pause whenever you feel the urge to react automatically, compare with your viewpoint,
  • study family history,
  • bring things back to the concrete, root yourself, limit the habit of thinking in generalities,
  • consider therapy, follow some form of spiritual practice,
  • take the leap of faith, rely on higher intervention, a higher force, abandon control, let life be.

In a way, this is nothing new, already in 2012, Paul Chefurka talked about the inner path and the outer path. This all boils down to experimenting the “outside” while listening to the “inside” until there is no more friction.

Conclusion

Being a doomer is a bit like being an alcoholic. Some are able to drink a few drinks and stop. Other will start with only half a drink and find 13 years of their life has passed by without notice. Although, it is most probably some form of escapism, like Bovarysme, doomerism is grounded in legitimate concerns.

Now, these concerns are reaching gigantic proportion. Everybody can see collapse at their doorstep. Everybody will soon have to deal with the consequences, envisioned by doomers. There are no easy answers, doomers can simply share their journey.

Chris

I was hesitant to team up with Charles for this experiment. I joke about him being my spiritual advisor, but him and I have been going in opposite directions for a while now. I guess my hesitancy was in thinking that this would be too pro human or too spiritual for my taste. I was relieved when he sent me his first draft. I was on board with everything he was saying. IMHO, his analysis about the typical doomer is spot on.

Now I also think we could flip the script and make this piece about the overshoot aware Spiritual person instead. Dive in to see what makes him/her tick. Try to see how they believe what they believe in the face of no evidence whatsoever. And yet they are very well versed to reality and our predicament. Have a feeling that story would sound very similar to the doomer. But that’s a different essay for someone else to tackle.

During this process of back-and-forth notes with Charles, a pattern was emerging. It was clear to me that he was worried about offending the doomer crowd. It was also clear to me that because of his experience of being one himself, he would be able to draw heavily on that, and rather than being offensive, it would be respectful.

On occasion I try to rattle Charles by sending him a shock jock belief of mine or a quote like this one from James at Megacancer. “The story of life: The quest for profit and growth will continue as it has since the first organic cell fissioned. The End.”

Nothing fazes him. In fact, most of the time he ends up liking what I said, or it gives him ideas to come back at me with something better. I guess what I’m trying to say is that Charles is tolerant to pretty much anything. And if you ever have a chance to interact with him outside of un-Denial, do it! He’s much more comfortable with one on one email.

Charles

Writing this piece, I didn’t want to gaslight the doomer: overshoot and collapse are real. Still, I also think, there is a psychological basis, an interplay between the macro and the micro, a link between individual psyches and collective dynamic. I believe material collapse will happen in synchronicity of a mass regulatory psychological event. I hope so: although extremely alluring, this culture is insane. It’s been hard to maintain integrity.

I have been a doomer, a part of me will always remain one. I slowly am retiring. Contemplating, as much as it is granted to me, life peacefully, joyfully, in awe.

I enjoyed very much working with Chris on this piece. More than anything else, I especially appreciate his accepting, encouraging presence, true to his first name as the carrier of Christ.

Sunrise Dam Gold Mine
Map of Hell by Botticelli

Rob here with a few thoughts.

I have followed quite a few overshoot aware people over the last 15 years including Gail Zawacki, Nicole Foss, Gail Tverberg, Alice Friedemann, Jay Hanson, Nate Hagens, Dennis Meadows, William Rees, David Korowicz, Jean-Marc Jancovici, Tim Watkins, Jack Alpert, Michael Dowd, Tim Morgan, David J.C. McKay, Tom Murphy, Tim Garrett, William Rees, Charles Hall, Paul Chefurka, Sam Mitchell, Jason Bradford, Andril Zvorygin, Steve St. Angelo, Simon Michaux, Hideaway, xraymike79, James, B, Mike Stasse, Irv Mills, and a few others.

I have not observed in these people many of the characteristics that Charles & Chris think are universal. I do lack visibility into the personal lives of most of these people so perhaps Charles & Chris have access to insights I do not have, or perhaps they follow different people. Hopefully examples of people with the common characteristics that Charles & Chris observe will be provided in the follow-up comments.

What I observe is that the majority (say 80%) of the tiny minority (say 1000 out of 8,000,000,000) people who have become deeply aware of our overshoot predicament tend to become obsessed with the topic and spend a lot of time discussing it. Very rarely an individual, like Paul Chefurka or Nicole Foss, breaks free of the obsession and retreats to live the balance of their life thinking about other things, but this is the exception rather than the norm.

Speaking for myself, I am unable to unsee a cliff we are accelerating towards, and I am fascinated why 8 billion minus maybe 1000 brains of an otherwise extraordinarily intelligent species are unable to understand the obvious, nor to take any actions to minimize the coming suffering of their beloved children and grandchildren.

I also do not think any normal person can easily become a doomer as claimed in the essay above. My personal experience has been that the majority of people are unable to understand the information necessary to become a doomer, regardless of their intelligence or education, or how simply and thoroughly the information is fed to them. In other words, no amount of data or logic is sufficient to explain the reality of overshoot to most people.

I think Dr. Ajit Varki discovered the answer to this mystery with his MORT theory, which also explains why only one super-intelligent species evolved on this planet despite the obvious fitness advantages of high intelligence, and why that species is also the only species that believes in gods.

Perhaps there is a better explanation than MORT for what we observe, but I have not yet found it.

976 thoughts on “By Charles & Chris: Doomers Anonymous”

  2. A 50% decline in oil extraction by 2030 might be the only thing that can save us from catastrophic climate change.

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/01/10/net-zero-2050-fantasy-or-reality/

    To mitigate, or prevent, the ‘unimageable’, there are hundreds of well-intentioned publications about the pathway to Net Zero emissions by 2050. On balance, they talk favorably about reaching Net Zero by 2050, and these prognostications are found in science publications, economic papers, online sites, and pretty much everywhere, with a strong sense of accomplishment in the offing. Plans to achieve Net Zero/2050 seem to satisfy people in general, believing success is on-target, no worries. But reality tells a different story.

    According to UN Climate Action: Based upon national action plans in effect, as of November 2024, the decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 will be 2.6%. But according to the Paris ’15 Agreement, a reduction of 43% from 2019 levels is required by 2030 to be on track for Net Zero/2050. That’s pathetically insignificant.

    …

    As a result of today’s madness, i.e., 40B metric tons, global warming has negatively impacted Nature. The world’s major ecosystems are joining the greenhouse gas parade along with cars, trains, planes, and industry, with little respect for Net Zero targeting by 2050. The insanity of this strange concurrence is only too obvious.

    Nature commands large reserves of carbon stored over millennia. For example, the Amazon stores an amount of carbon equivalent to 15–20 years of global CO2 emissions. A study published in the journal Nature found that the eastern Amazon has transitioned into a carbon source. This is global warming hard at work and a danger signal if ever there was one.

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    1. The best example of a predicament I have seen (from the sidebar):

      An exchange between Nate Hagens and Kevin Anderson highlights why population reduction must be our focus.
      Hagens: “We’ll have 50% less oil by 2050 which means we’re screwed.”
      Anderson: “We need to use zero oil before 2050 or we’re screwed.”

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    2. Good to see Hunziker is still at it. He’s a cool dude. I thought he got out of the doomasphere.

      This was one of the first Dowd videos I ever watched. Robert had me terrified😊.
      Title: “Abrupt Climate Change: The World Tour”

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  3. I like this comment by Steve Bull (from Sarah Connor’s site). I’ll have to forward it to Sam Mitchell and everyone else who is infected with TDS.

    Initially taken aback by Trump’s musings about the US ‘takeovers’ of the Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland (for a variety of reasons but perhaps mostly as I am Canadian). On reflection, however, it seems to me that Trump is simply stating the quiet part about US foreign policy out loud: Align with the US Empire (by bending the knee to our demands) or risk takeover by whatever means necessary, including but not limited to kinetic war.

    This is the modus operandi of The Empire perhaps since its inception. It has not mattered which party or individual has occupied the White House. It is the way of those who occupy a society’s positions of power and control in order to maintain those positions. Trump is no better nor worse than those who came before him. He’s simply saying the quiet part out loud: this is who the US Empire is. The only solace I take from such lunacy is that I know every empire eventually collapses…

    Why the U.S. is Threatening Greenland and Canada

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    2. Canada already bends over on every issue that an independent, intelligent, ethical country would resist including NATO on Russia’s border, Gaza genocide, mRNA transfections, and silence on the Fauci crimes.

      I think we might as well join the US to get the benefit of USD for purchasing power, and guns so we can protect the truckers et al next time our government violates the charter to shut down a protest.

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      1. From collapse2050. You know I’m bored when I’m picking on random comments, but it’s a good example of how pride & patriotism (and lack of situational awareness) can mess you up badly. And for once it’s not usa pride. It’s those damn pesky Canadians😊.

        And don’t get me wrong, I love the passion and hatred of usa, but if Le Jay was in charge of Canada, he/she would get everyone killed guaranteed. Whereas if Rob was in charge, the people would have a good chance of not only surviving but continuing on (for a while) with most of their comfortable empire lifestyles.

        Le Jay: You american pigs are responsible for climate change and now you want to invade sovereign countries to alleviate the issues? Fat chance.

        I won’t accept american domination. Just like 85% of Canadians or Quebecers. If we have to decouple from the US we will. We have 3 oceans to trade with the world. Trump rhetoric represent most of what the american people want, more climate chaos and cheaper oil. @Karina, if you want so hard to be american due to the cold weather here, you can just move across the border. No need to betray your country.

        ps. Le had a much angrier (and funny) comment earlier today with cursing and threats of killing american soldiers… poor Sarah probably fell over when she saw it and had to delete it🤭

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        1. LOL! Just as many dumb Canadians as Americans.

          A decade or two ago the idea of US taking over Canada would have really upset me. We had a reason to be proud of our behavior in the global community, and we walked an independent line from the US. Today our leaders are as uniformly bad as US leaders, and we have no principles or ethics to be proud of. It seems Australia, New Zealand, UK, and Germany have experienced similar declines. France was always a basket case.

          I say come and get us, and give me those beautiful US dollars and semi-automatic weapons.

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      1. I haven’t seen anything from Nicole Foss in a long time. Where does she post these days?

        The worst TDS I ever saw was Gail Zawacki. She became obsessed after Trump was elected.

        The second worst is Sam Harris, a super-smart polymath I used to respect who refuses to admit the evils of censorship, mRNA transfections, and Fauci because he’d rather see children harmed than give an inch to Trump.

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        1. Nicole only posts on Facebook. She posts about 10-20 links to videos and news articles each day. Sometimes she posts at a rate I’m not convinced she watched / read what she linked. Normally focusing on vaccines or TDS. My husband said the nature of her posting makes her look crazy. Facebook has kind of shadow banned her as this type of posting is considering spamming by their algorithms.

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        2. Also Nicole and Alice got into a massive argument on Facebook about ivermectin and vaccines. Alice for and Nicole against. They both agree on Trump but could not even really discuss the ivermectin vaccine points rationally. It was quite interesting to watch

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          1. Wow. Very sad. Covid destroyed a lot of relationships. It’s so complex with so many variables, plus there is deliberate misinformation, and a strong political thread to everything.

            Just so I understand correctly, Alice is for mRNA transfections and against Ivermectin? And Nicole is against mRNA transfections and for Ivermectin?

            It’s not getting better for me. I’m hardening in my resolve to not to repair relationships with people that supported the murders and who refuse to admit they were wrong. None of them make any attempt to find data from sources with integrity to support their views.

            If my posting of links ever makes me look like a crazy person please tell me and I will try to stop.

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            1. Hi Rob. Yes you have understood correctly. And no your links are fine. You seem like one of the sanest people on the planet to me 🙂 sorry that it must feel quite lonely at times

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              2. Both Alice and Nicole are super bright. Both are super curious and have spent their lives trying to discover and explain reality.

                It’s remarkable they were not able to apply these skills to mRNA/Ivermectin and converge on a common understanding. Especially since they agree on the politics.

                I wonder if it’s possible that none of us understand the reality of covid due to the complexity of biology and crap pharma “science”?

                Did you draw any conclusions from their debate?

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                1. My only conclusion was when you come at an argument from your camp (eg democrat, anti-establishment) you struggle to fairly look at, evaluate and use the actual evidence.

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                2. I would highly reccomend this short video which I happened to come across yesterday. It really helps explain where smart people go wrong with their arguments.

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                    1. yes but what is their group that they are accepted in?

                      I was accepted by my group even though I spoke of undeniable subjects but when covid and trump hit the scene friends started disappearing fast.

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                    2. I was expecting scarcity and the wealth gap to destroy our civil society. I never expected a man-made virus and a coerced unsafe and ineffective gene therapy to destroy civil society.

                      It’s very hard to avoid scarcity with energy and mineral depletion, and it’s very hard to avoid a wealth gap when you’re forced to print money because of limits to growth.

                      It’s not hard to prevent gain of function research, and it’s not hard to force pharma to properly test new technologies, and it’s not hard to mobilize doctors to find safe and effective repurposed drugs.

                      The whole thing should never have happened. No one was punished for killing 7+ million people.

                      My next door neighbor doesn’t have a clue, doesn’t care, and probably would stop talking to me if he knew I was anti-transfection.

                      WASF

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  4. Probably nothing to worry about.

    …the US govt had $317 billion in revenue and paid $140 billion in interest on the national debt. About 44% of all revenue went to interest.

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    1. Viewing Trump’s plans from 40,000 feet it looks like he knows US needs to reduce its deficit but instead of cutting the military, he plans to tax other countries via tariffs. This is likely to work for a short period and then trigger a global depression, which will worsen the US fiscal situation.

      It rhymes with how we address every overshoot problem. The “fix” improves the short-term and worsens the long-term.

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  5. https://un-denial.com/2024/12/29/by-charles-chris-doomers-anonymous/comment-page-1/#comment-109071

    Hi Simon. I’m replying to your comment here because most people won’t see it in the older thread.

    Good point about the horses… And thanks for reminding me of that Schmachtenberger story. It used to be my favorite thing in the doomasphere. I had posted the quote here last year, but I’m gonna copy/paste it again because it’s so beautiful.

    And check out the link below for some replies to that comment. Animism is a bad word on this site… I was so mad at those guys back then… but now I totally agree😊

    Many historians believe the invention of the plow killed animism, which was nearly universal prior to the plow. I can be a hunter and kill a buffalo while still being animistic. I can pray to the spirit of the buffalo, cry when I kill it, take no more buffalo than I need and use it all well, and then say I am eating you and when we die, and get buried, we will become grass that your great grandchildren will eat and we’re part of this great cycle of life. But I cannot breed a buffalo into an ox, yoke it, cut its testicles off, bind its horns, and beat it all day long, and be animistic and still respect the spirit of the buffalo. At that point I have to say its just a dumb fucking animal that is here for us and man’s dominion over earth. 

    Technology that is highly advantageous to use, is obligate. Meaning you dont get to not use it and still make it thru history. Someone else will use the plow. They’ll grow their population because of the massive caloric increase. They will make it thru the famines. If we dont use it, then our tribe will get killed by them and or die in the famine. So even if I dont want to use it, I have to. And If I dont, then I dont make it thru history. The technology then codes a pattern of human behavior, instead of hunting-gathering, now I am beating an animal all day. This codes a pattern of values in the human psyche. Which eventually codes the entire culture.

    https://un-denial.com/2024/04/09/radical-reality-by-hideaway-and-radical-acceptance-by-b/comment-page-1/#comment-95097

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    1. That interview with Nate Hagens where he said this and talked about multipolar traps was my favourite. Haven’t listened to the last couple. Thanks for writing it down.

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    1. One of the other big California fires was started by power lines. Dr. Bret Weinstein witnessed the electrical arcs that started the fire and was the primary witness in a court case against the electricity supplier.

      One feedback loop I’m aware of is climate change -> hotter summers -> more air conditioning -> more electrical load -> hotter wires -> sagging wires -> more electrical shorts from wind.

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    2. With gale-force winds, hot temperatures and bone-dry vegetation, it doesn’t take much to start a fire. The whole state of California is one big fire trap, thanks to real-estate speculators and big-ag farmers hogging the water. Suburban tract development in Cal has long been out of control.

      I’ve been following Yasha Levine since he began posting online from Victorville, California, during the depths of the real-estate collapse in 2008-9. His Substack “Weaponized Immigrant” is great stuff. His family came from the Soviet Union just before its collapse; he does investigative journalism about the power elites in California. I’m planning to watch his latest work, Pistachio Wars, a doc about the Resnicks, the zillionaire Beverly Hills pistachio moguls.

      https://www.truthdig.com/articles/killing-california-for-a-snack/

      If you click on the “weaponized immigrant” link at the top of the post, it’ll take you the page for the Pistachio Wars documentary.

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      1. It’s behind a paywall now, but I highly recommend his “Welcome to Shitdump, California”, a gonzo investigative post about how Los Angeles’ feces are being shipped to a “biosolids composting” facility operated by Nursery Products near Hinkley, California, the God-forsaken poisoned hamlet made famous by Erin Brockovich.

        https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hinkley,+CA+92347/@34.9167385,-117.3846912,28768m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x80c387de7ad5daf5:0x7c75725212bad77e!8m2!3d34.9344769!4d-117.1993469!16zL20vMDVtNnRs?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDExMC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

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      2. This is a famous photo. Dr. Joseph Poland was a hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey who was a pioneering researcher in land subsidence. He focused on California’s Central Valley, where half the produce in the U.S. comes from. He illustrates the amount of subsidence due to excessive groundwater pumping for agriculture. Nine meters in this locale! And the photo was taken half a century ago.

        https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/location-maximum-land-subsidence-us-levels-1925-and-1977

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  7. There was a great tweet from a NZ commentator on Trump.

    “How has Trump been around for this long and people still seriously underestimate how much he trolls everyone?” Ani O’Brien

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  8. In case you haven’t already encountered it, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson has a fresh theory on what is really going on in the middle east.

    Most pundits think Israel controls US politicians via money from AIPAC lobbyists. Wilkerson now believes this is completely wrong. He thinks the US uses Israel to do it’s dirty deeds in the middle east and AIPAC is just a smokescreen.

    I lean to Wilkerson’s view. The recent genocide has been so obvious, and worldwide condemnation so strong, and the ability of the US to instantly stop it so easy, that one has to conclude the US is driving the genocide. All of the killing takes place with US bombs, US planes, US jet fuel, and US air support.

    I think Blinken has visited Israel 11 times since the genocide started to coordinate the killing. One phone call could have stopped it.

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  9. Preptip:

    Happiness is when cases of Stagg chili go on sale at Costco. Used to be a regular event but very rare the last 3 years. Now on sale for $1.90 per can.

    One can is a complete balanced meal, decent amount of beef & fat, beans for fiber, pretty good tomato sauce, no sugar, no strange ingredients, pop-top makes it great for camping, excellent emergency food because it tastes good cold out of the can.

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  10. Ed Conway, author of the book Material World that I loved, writes the occasional essay. Today he gives a brief history of nitrogen fertilizer and points out that although Haber-Bosch now dominates, we never stopped mining the mineral version.

    It seems analogous to energy transitions. We never replace one with another. We just add to the pile.

    https://edconway.substack.com/p/forgotten-minerals-2-caliche

    this is a lesson you’ll hear a lot in this series – once we start mining something, we humans very, very rarely ever stop. In the case of caliche, those ghost towns are mostly a testament to the fact not that mining has stopped, but that it no longer employs half as many people.

    In one respect, you might find this a little depressing. The desert is still being carved up by diggers and caliche ripped out from the surface – long after it was supposed to have been innovated out of existence. But now ponder how those Haber Bosch plants actually work. They take hydrogen out of gas or (in many Chinese plants) coal and use it to fix nitrogen from the air. In the process they are responsible for significant greenhouse gas emissions. In practice, this old fashioned mineral way of getting fertiliser is – even once you take account of all the trucks and energy used in the Chilean desert – more environmentally friendly than the modern methods that didn’t quite displace it.

    But it turns out caliche is far from the only forgotten material we’re still mining plenty of, decades after we were supposed to have stopped. The next substance in this series is, if you can believe it, even more noxious and pollutive than the much-maligned greenhouse gases. Yet we still mine it in astounding quantities. For better or worse, the human appetite for minerals and mining rarely diminishes.

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    1. With Ed Conway and his followers, they are missing a large part of the overall picture. He’s correct we will never “run out of” any mineral and metal on planet Earth. I worked out once that the amount of Gold in the crust and mantle, if the ppb contents were accurate from USGS, was around 4.7 Trillion tonnes of the stuff, and we’ve only ever mined a total of just over 200,000 tonnes throughout history..

      Ed misses that we will never be able to mine it all, as it involves increasing technology, that he expects to continue as it has for the last 200 years. He seems blind to the size/complexity laws and energy constraints that will knock technology backwards. He is also blind to the reality we can’t use the methods of 100 years ago to mine minerals and metals because of the low grades that require the complexity that only comes from high and growing energy use.

      He also appears to believe all the EROEI nonsense written in all the modern ‘research’ that this trend of higher EROEI will continue for all the replacements of fossil fuels. He has 4 children and of course wants a bright future for them, as do all parents, so overlooks a major part of our reality.

      I have not read A Material World, but I have listened to a few of his videos with various interviewers, but never noticed him discussing the energy requirement to maintain the complexity of the technology he expects will continue to develop.

      To me it’s like most people that get a lot of the story, then try to work out a happy ending by ignoring the fact that technology over the last 200 years has gone ahead in leaps and bounds, while we’ve had both a growing market size plus a growing energy use, all while having diminishing returns on the technology, as we’ve made all the easy technology/efficiency gains (for mining and agriculture), plus the higher cost of energy gathering, before we can allocate some to mining, and the reality of a future where overall energy will be declining, not growing when oil production goes into a major decline.

      The following is a quote from the comments section of his blog, which Ed liked…..

      ” It is surprising to me how many people are anxious to jump on the doom and gloom bandwagon when it comes to human utilization of the materials of our planet. This fits with the climate catastrophe ideology, pushing us to revert to the collection of energy from the wind and sun. What we know from your brilliant book and a study of history is that human ingenuity never fails to astound.”

      It’s the hand wave of “human ingenuity” aka ‘technology’ will make sure enough of all materials required will be available, but never an acknowledgement that we only have technology because of abundant fossil fuels that allowed both the technology and the complexity to develop in tandem, by freeing the majority of people from finding or growing their own food to survive, while pushing human population to massive overshoot levels.

      Civilization is just like every other self organised complex system, it develops, grows using more energy, matures then eventually fails spectacularly quickly, when the internal networks of complexity fail due to lower energy availability to grow or maintain the system.

      A body dies; a massive star (more complex than a small star) goes supernova; a massive hurricane, becomes a rain depression dropping the water and wind levels it could maintain while over the hot sea; every prior civilization, when the soil was depleted or major drought hit, diminishing food for the city/state; a bee colony when the pollen levels fall due to a variety of reasons.

      Sorry, but Ed annoys me as he should be able to put the big picture together from his research, but has the usual blind spot of denial of a bad outcome, because he has children, so clutches onto the hopium of technology, without thinking through the full implications of what it takes to maintain this technology (human ingenuity).

      We will never run out of metals and minerals, we will run out of the technology to mine the low grades left, due to energy constraints reversing the complexity of everything we do, which will hit us in chaotic ways.

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      1. I still think you should read his book. I suspect you will enjoy it and you might even learn a few things useful for your argument toolkit.

        The book is both an excellent exploration of our material world and a case study in Varki’s MORT.

        Most of the book demonstrates awareness of falling ore grades, rising complexity, and increased energy requirements. Only at the end does he flip the obvious conclusion into a happier story, presumably to sell his book and maybe to maintain his sanity.

        The body of the book is filled with interesting history, fascinating explanations of how we mine and refine materials, and how and why those materials are needed to operate our modern world.

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        1. I just checked in our local library and can get a copy via inter library loan, so will do that and have a read. I’m sure there will be a lot of facts from what he’s looked at that are new to me. However looking at materials used in our modern world is a book I could and probably should have written myself..

          One aspect that seems to apply to Ed is that he has realised there is no shortage of any metal or mineral; we have plenty of low grade and deep everything on the planet, and the materials themselves are not in question. It’s the ‘economics’ of extraction that counts in our capitalist world. We have the knowledge and technology to extract uranium, copper, gold and a whole lot more from the seawater of oceans, but it’s just not economic to do so.

          Everyone, whenever they state something is uneconomic to do, is really stating it’s too complex and/or too energy intensive to do, relative to how we currently extract metals and minerals.

          Take copper as an example of which the entire Andes mountains have plenty. If we mined the entire mountain range 4000km long X 400km wide X 1km deep, we would be able to obtain over 300 Billion tonnes of copper. However given the current best energy use in mining, just the moving, crushing and grinding of this ‘ore’ would take around 2,000 years worth, of current world TOTAL energy use. That’s just the process of moving, crushing and grinding, with no allowance for providing the machines, people, processing plant operations, roads, or anything else.

          Super-duper technology might get that energy number down a bit, but only the energy of the process bit, and always excludes the energy required to make the better technology. The energy use number is of course ridiculously high, as we ‘only’ mine the higher grade bits, until they are all gone.

          People like Ed Conway, and for that matter the authors of Limits to Growth, Gaya Herington etc, with their sustainable world model, have no regard to the reality that mining takes a continually growing amount of energy and complexity to extract the materials we need, even if we were to get to 100% efficiency of energy use, with ‘new technology’ (thermodynamically impossible BTW).

          Plus of course entropy and dissipation continue their relentless march across time. Take Simons rusted car body, but allow 1,000 years for some type of civilization to re-emerge after collapse. Will anyone be able to tell a ‘car body’ existed in that or any other spot? A thousand years of rust will not leave much except glass fragments, with plants growing over the spot and soil life dissipating the rust back into the soil..

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          1. I’m glad you’re going to give it a go.

            My brain ain’t what it used to be and I don’t remember every argument as well as I once did, but I think you may be pleasantly surprised by the book and find that Conway understands and agrees with the issues you focus on.

            I remember being pleased throughout most of the book (minus of course the occasional mistake) and then being shocked by the conclusion which contradicted all of the evidence he had just presented. It was like his editor said, nope, you have to rewrite the last chapter if we’re going to make any money from this book.

            I may also be a little more forgiving than you. There are so many “experts” in the world that understand zero about anything that matters, when I run into someone that is correct about an important chunk of how the the world works, I follow them and filter/forgive the wrong stuff.

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          2. Plus of course entropy and dissipation continue their relentless march across time.

            This is a fact missed by most people who are overshoot aware. A few thousand years from now even if climate stabilizes and soils regenerate it will be impossible to create anything more that neolithic villages. The resource base needed for an advanced civilization has almost entirely been consumed with only a few more decades left.

            Most metals pulled from the ground will succumb to corrosion with some exceptions like iridium which are highly corrosion resistant. Coal which is needed for smelting will also be gone by then.

            Even if we leap ahead by two hundred million years and there is another intelligent species running around on the planet they will also face constraints that we did not. They may have access to oil and gas but will definitely not have coal as most of it was formed during the carboniferous period which was a one time thing of bacteria not having the ability to break down lignin. Most metals were formed hundreds of millions to a billion years ago as one time events like the great oxidation event which led to the formation of iron ore, our most important metal.

            This civilization of ours truly is the peak of what this planet or maybe even this universe could produce and it is a distinct privilege and tragedy that we will bear witness to both its peak and collapse.

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          3. I do like your title of Overton window smasher, Hideaway! I might be wrong about the metals; I found this looking at how metals would last over time, and iron is not great. That said, I like watching archaeology programs and bronze artifacts (1000s of years old) last even in sea water.

            I wonder what we mean by civilisation; life in cities? If that’s the case, I don’t see that as a preferable future, frankly. Small villages seem much more human-scale to me, and cities seem inevitably to lead to class structures, kings and wars.

            Simon

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            1. Hi Simon, I agree about the village size being the most likely ‘high’ form of human development post collapse, but it doesn’t really meet the criteria of “civilized” or “civilization”, which means….

              “at an advanced stage of social and cultural development.” from Oxford dictionary..

              What most people mean by civilization is where people are no longer involved in the gathering of food and wood for basic survival, which they would be if the entire civilization consisted of a village of 150 people.

              Also the high end metals that will still be existing in 1000 years are things like stainless steel and Hestalloy, with a combination of steel, nickel, molybdenum, chromium, which have a higher melting point than iron and steel. It’s going to need very good furnaces to use charcoal to get these metals malleable, let alone melt them to make ‘tools’. It would probably take a civilization that has the spare time to work out and make the furnace necessary, as simple blacksmithing may not be up to the task.

              A quick look at blacksmithing of stainless steel, tells me “it’s complicated”, due to the chromium oxidizing in an oxygen environment when heated to make the SS malleable, so these metals might not last long in a 1,000 years time after simple forging, then use…

              Given Earth’s history, and the current CO2 output, it’s a pretty good bet we will be way outside of the Holocene period in a 1,000 years time, which means agriculture will be very difficult or impossible to pursue, meaning most surviving humans are back to hunter gathering assuming we haven’t sent all the megafauna to extinction during the collapse.

              We can’t have even villages of 150, unless they were slash and burn type cultures that constantly move to new ground. Given the environmental damage we’ve done to climate, other species, pollution with a range of chemicals including endocrine disruptors pesticides and herbicides, plus soil losses and future sea level rises baked in, hybrid seeds of most of our food crops, etc, we are leaving a vastly different world to what we had at the dawn of agriculture.

              When we look at the entire range of the complexity it takes for “civilization”, it’s obvious it will be extremely difficult, given the entire range of aspects that have to be considered. Civilization looks much easier if we only consider one aspect at a time, not the whole interacting together and it’s the combination of many factors that allowed us to grow to our current civilization.

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      2. At the end of his interview with Nate Hagens he specifically mentioned his children and his behaviour change of not replacing his phone so often 😉. He also said we need more mineral engineers or similar. But I agree with Rob that his interviews and writings are really interesting and I’ve learnt a lot.

        We have 3 children and our approach is to bring them up outside the norm as much as possible (homeschooling), immerse them in nature and practical skills while being honest but loving about the future we see ahead.

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      3. I think we will “run out” of those minerals/metals. If, as you say, we won’t be able to mine those low grades (and I agree), then we will have run out. If you can’t get the resource, then you’ve run out, even if there are trillions of tons still somewhere in the crust.

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      4. Great comment as always Hideaway. I love your strict focus on denial. And that random comment from his blog… yikes! Ed is getting his ass kissed so hard that he has probably developed a god like complex. LOL

        But be careful. Your strictness and loathing of denial might end up pushing you away from good overshoot sources. I can tell we are similar with our denial radar. You probably see it everywhere you look. Even with the people/websites that you’re positive have it under control. Whip out the magnifying glass and you see the denial oozing through the cracks.

        Don’t know if you were this strict prior to finding Rob’s site… but I doubt it. I think un-Denial has created a monster out of some of us😊. IMHO, the place that has the least amount of denial in the overshoot world is megacancer. A big reason for that is because those guys are heavily into the masters of mastering denial; the nihilism & pessimism philosophers.

        When I gave that little review of Thomas Ligotti’s book ‘The Conspiracy Against the Human Race’, I was gonna make a prediction for who might like it. It’s a short list… el mar (but I already knew he liked Zapffe), nikoB and you. So this is my long way of saying you should give that book a try. I think it’ll be right up your alley (because of your denial skills). 

        Why do I give a shit if you read it or not? I think for the same reason Rob wants you to read Ed’s book…. so that you’ll incorporate some of it into your geniusness… Plus, I really wanna see what a Hideaway rant looks like when hardcore nihilism is added to the mix😊.

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  11. Charles Hugh Smith lists 20 forces that prevent any useful change in our path to collapse.

    https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2025/01/catch-20-20-dynamics-that-will-shape.html

    But if we examine the system as a system, stripped of ideology and other belief structures, we find a system of contradictory dynamics that are largely impervious to political change, technology or the market. In other words, the forces that are aligned to transform life have little purchase on the system dynamics that are operating beneath the surface euphoria.

    In my analysis, these are the engrenages, the gearing that is irreversible due to the design and mechanics of the system. This gearing can be understood as a metaphor for addiction: the system is addicted to its own continuity, yet it’s blind to the destructive consequences of this gearing.

    Each of these points can be understood as one of the gearings in the machine, a machine as complex as the Antikythera mechanism. Together, these 20 gearings make up Catch-20: the system is incapable of transforming itself, which is the essential first step in transforming the world.

    1. The system is optimized for infinite growth / expansion. If expansion falters, the system crashes.

    2. The system is optimized for infinite substitution of whatever becomes scarce as the means to continue expanding. Each substitution is inferior / not equivalent to the original resource.

    3. These optimizations only function in a narrow envelope. Should the system stray outside this envelope, it crashes.

    4. The fundamental principle of the system is “no limits”: there are no limits on human ingenuity, and so there are no limits on technology and growth.

    5. There are intrinsically contradictory dynamics in the system.

    6. Scale and asymmetry are the core contradictory dynamics.

    7. The system’s optimizations mis-diagnose problems, so it selects “solutions” that accelerate its own dysfunction.

    8. The system lacks the means–the values, feedback and institutional structures–to adapt to changing conditions. The solutions offered are based on misdiagnoses of the actual problems, so the problems only become more intractable.

    9. As a result, the preferred “solutions” are all forms of play-acting, i.e. the notion that controlling the narrative / framing the “problem” as solvable with existing policies is actually solving the problem.

    10. The system’s core mythology is Technological Progress is unlimited and unstoppable and so it will solve all problems by its very nature. We can remain comfortably seated and watch as Technology solves whatever problems arise.

    11. This belief blinds us to the fact that technology also generates Anti-Progress. Since accepting Anti-Progress undermines our core faith in Technological Progress, we deny the existence of Anti-Progress, just as we deny being addicted. This denial renders us incapable of correctly diagnosing problems and choosing actual solutions rather than play-acting “solutions.”

    12. Due to these conditions, the system is involuted: no matter what option we choose, nothing changes systemically. Real change is only possible at the micro-level of our own lives, by creating our own adaptable “life-system.”

    13. Over-Optimization renders the system fragile and vulnerable to breakdown. In our hubris, we believe we control all variables.

    14. Cycles of War and Debt Renunciation are aligned and mutually reinforcing.

    15. The Logic of Planned Obsolescence and Addiction: these are the drivers of new sales / profits.

    16. Jevon’s Paradox: new sources of energy are consumed rather than substituted for existing sources.

    17. Tacit loyalties / “tribes” that no longer align with traditional political / ideological boundaries are emerging; these are as yet “unbranded” and unrecognized: akin to objects invisible to our eyes because they’re radiating infrared energy.

    18. Under-competence: we have just enough knowledge / experience to keep the machine running but not enough to rebuild it or adapt it.

    19. The critical keystones in the system are not visible until they crumble, bringing down what was presumed to be rock-solid and permanent.

    20. The relentless increase in the cost of essentials fuels a decline in the quality of goods and services, to the point that we have lost any sense of quality.

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  13. Got this cool link from Erik Michaels blog. I like the gambling angle. gambler.pdf

    Erik also gives a shout out to our essay in his newest article. The Condition of Our Anthropocentrism

    Totally appreciate it, but I’m worried about you Charles. Don’t let all this newfound fame and fortune ruin your great perspective and outlook on life, by turning you into a greedy ungrateful egomaniac… You don’t have to worry about me, I’m already there. LOL

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  14. Amb. Chas Freeman, Glenn Diesen, and Alexander Mercouris are three of the best geopolitical analysts.

    A recurring theme of their discussions is total bewilderment at the lack of empathy, diplomacy skills, and good judgement of all western leaders.

    I note that they are all blind to limits to growth and overshoot. I wonder what they would think about western leader actions if they were aware?

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    1. I too, like all three. But Chas Freeman is not as good as Alistar Crooke, Lawrence Wilkerson or Jeffery Sachs IMHO. I noticed that Freeman doesn’t really like Trump and has TDS bad. At one point he called Trump a demagogue felon. I don’t dispute the demagogue but the felon bullshit is a left wing lie. Trump was the subject of Lawfare like no other political person in our recent history. His “conviction” in NY was from a legal perspective completely bogus. I (as a former attorney) think it will easily be overturned on so many grounds that only fools (who know NOTHING) would call him a felon. So that to me just paints Freeman as a left wing partisan – even if he has some smart on geopolitics.

      Not that I like Trump, he is a disaster, but maybe Gaza will have fewer dead bodies than Biden and Harris put there and Harris would have continued. I’m certain Trump will screw a lot up and blame it all on other people but he is far better than the Deep State democrats at this point.

      But, all that said I still think everything is going to collapse faster than most of us would like or anticipate.

      AJ

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      1. I missed Freeman having TDS. It’s so common these days I usually ignore it. I learned how to ignore TDS with my deceased friend Gail Zawacki.

        I also respect Wilkerson and Sachs very much, but they too are completely overshoot blind.

        It would be great to see geopolitics discussed in the light of rapidly depleting oil. If anyone finds such as a discussion, please post a link.

        All this talk of attacking Iran and zero discussion about the implications of them closing the straight of Hormuz in response.

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  15. Discussion of an important new paper that proves mRNA transfections did not remain local as promised before they were coerced into billions, and that damage is observed in many vital organs including the brain and heart.

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    1. Accurate predictions are the best indicator of who to trust.

      Dr. Bret Weinstein correctly predicted in the early days of covid that mRNA transfections are inherently dangerous and should never have been approved.

      Another indicator is admitting and correcting a mistake, as Weinstein did when he figured out that cloth masks did not help with covid.

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  16. One of these days, in the not too distant future, depletion will overpower all other forces.

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    1. Interesting. Naturally, I am following this:

      Maybe the markets have access to more recent data (via some proxy measurement), and the trend is further down, instead of the the red projected curb.

      We are 6 years+ past peak, with something looking like a plateau (and this is not taking into account the energy content of the different liquids and the energy used by the industry itself). I would be surprised if the production numbers were to go up.

      If I were to do a wild guess: the system breaks once we get to 70Mb/d again (the low of the covid phase). The financial system breaks/changes dramatically even before that.

      2025 will be good 🙂

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      1. Please keep us updated with your opinions on this. I am not very good at tracking oil market changes.

        As Hideaway says, oil is the dominant force, when it really begins to fall we know there will be big problems.

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      2. Charles if you’ve followed the ‘predictions’ of the EIA for a few years, and you can go back and check if you like, they are always predicting higher oil production than present in their 1-2 year outlook.

        Their forecast in January last year was for Sept/Oct to be higher than the prior October level.

        The previous year, likewise. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the forecast for lower future production than the ‘present’, for any of those ‘outlooks’.

        The current real question is about the OPEC ‘spare capacity’, as in is it real or are OPEC now struggling to maintain production because of depletion of older wells. I have no idea about this. It could go either way.

        The real test will be when US production from all the shale starts to fall despite higher prices, and then whether OPEC can indeed ramp up production. One of these years they will both be clearly in decline, reflected by higher prices, way over $US100/bbl, but we are not there yet.

        I always read the new posts at peakoilbarrel to try and gain an insight to how close we are to the tipping point of clear world oil production decline, but we still may have a few years, as so much is kept as state secrets….

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        1. Yes. Somebody told me a long time ago (20 years), that the EIA predictions were about demand, assuming production would always somehow follow.

          Aren’t we already in decline, if we consider useful energy to society rather than volume? (A large volume doesn’t matter, if the energy content is going down and the energy use by extractive industries goes up)

          The system has so far “managed”. I think the overlord machine’s “strategy” has been to cut off those organs less needed. Such as Europe, (Argentina?) and a greater share of the population everywhere.

          But I think 2025, will be revelatory, because one cannot indefinitely lie to oneself. Can debt be ever repayed (rhetorical question)? What’s the impact on retirements, on the social contract, on the continuation of the operation of states? At some point, skateholders will have to sit down on the table, recognize the losses and bargain the distribution of efforts. Or (more realistically) the system just blows up, with a majority of people unilaterally opting out. This is a con game on a global level.

          The time has come. (And yes, I accept, I may be wrong. I still write this down, because it will be fun if I am still able to come back 9 months from now and see how wrong I was 🙂

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  17. Hi have no idea if the Drs Bailey are legit, however, Sam Bailey explains in detail how she was treated by the Doctors Register in NZ. FYI Ashley Bloomfield who is mentioned was our Director-General of Health during the covid-19 pandemic. Drs Bailey have come to the conclusion that viruses don’t exist, which sounds crazy but hey you never know.

    I’ve shared this here more to show how effective a small country like NZ is at getting all doctors to stay in line and on a single narrative. I think it also helps that Dr Sam was well-respected person for her medical work, TV work, and business. She got in trouble just for questioning covid-19, before her or her husband started talking about their virus ideas.

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    1. I remember when New Zealand was a good country, just like Canada once was.

      I think (but am not certain) the no-virus people are wrong, but I also understand why they might have good reason to believe what they do. Health officials lied about everything to push the covid mRNA “vaccine”, but it’s not the first time.

      The next book I want to read is Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and the Forgotten History.

      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18336700-dissolving-illusions

      It analyzes historic health data to show that most of what we are told to make us believe vaccines are essential is untrue.

      One bit of good news that hopefully is the start of a trend: Trump apparently is going pay all lost income/pensions to US military people who were fired because they refused to be transfected.

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      1. My gut is telling me viruses are real, but that the ‘no-virus’ people are onto something with the level of fraud and pseudoscience that passes for virology. I’m hoping to read a few books about it at some point, mainly because I like exploring wacky ideas.

        Also, what Dr Sam described with the Medical Council is the same as what happens in NZ with our legal society, teachers council, nursing council etc. I imagine it is similar in Canada. But I think this legal / regulatory system helps explain some of the covid pandemic and how the govts were able to get really good control, quite early. I would say there approach has completely backfired and heaven forbid we get a more serious virus in the next 5 years

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        1. My superficial understanding is there were a couple DNA viruses against which vaccines were super effective but for the rest, and especially the RNA viruses, vaccines are profitable snake oil.

          You nailed a key issue. Our health authorities destroyed their credibility. A lot of people myself included will not believe a word they say going forward.

          They could be forgiven in the early days for having to respond to a panic with insufficient information, but today there is no excuse for still recommending that children be transfected, or for not prosecuting all the people associated with the Wuhan lab.

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          1. You nailed a key issue. Our health authorities destroyed their credibility. A lot of people myself included will not believe a word they say going forward.

            How do you think this will affect the response to a potential bird flu pandemic?

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            1. My guess is they will try to use bird flu as an excuse to implement emergency measures right before they conclude they can’t stop the economy from tanking. They’ve been priming the panic pumps to get us ready.

              There will be ferocious pushback from many citizens and from a few leaders not in the club, and they will back down on the emergency measures.

              If the only remedy on offer is an mRNA transfection, about half the people, including me, will refuse it.

              If they offer a conventional vaccine, I might take it after confirming it has been tested with sufficient time and rigor, but only after a couple of my neighbors drop dead.

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              1. There will be ferocious pushback from many citizens and from a few leaders not in the club, and they will back down on the emergency measures.

                Even if bird flu turns out to be deadlier than Covid-19?

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                2. Covid 19 wasn’t deadly to anyone in good health. Statisically speaking.

                  Stay in good health and bird flu which has not adapted for human to human transmission is unlikely to be a problem.

                  Everyone should be getting their vit d levels right up. 20000 IU a day by pills or 30min sun exposure.

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                  1. 20k IU per day? I take one pill daily. (D3 – 1,000 IU – 25mcg – company NatureMade).

                    Upping it to 20 or even 10 pills/day sounds like too much (I get about 10min sun exposure per day).

                    I know nothing about vitamins, so I’m not questioning you, just want to verify.

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                    1. Each D3 tablet is 1000 IU. The bottle recommends 1 tablet per day. Some people I trust take up to 5 per day.

                      The correct amount depends on how much sunshine you get and your body specifics so to do it properly you should probably get your blood level tested but I’m too cheap for that so I take 2 tablets (2000 IU) per day. It’s super safe and it’s hard to take too much.

                      Best to take it with a meal so there’s some fat in your gut to help absorb it.

                      My opinion is it’s a commodity without brand advantages so I buy the cheapest house brand in large quantities when it goes on sale at Costco.

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                    2. The pill I take is 5000 IU. I take 1 to 4 a day depending on sun exposure.
                      If you go through medical literature you will find that therapeutic doses are in the 60 000 to 100 000 IU levels. Most westerners are d deficient. To get to toxic levels you would need to take 100 000 IU everyday for 3 months.

                      if you can get sun everyday for 20mins over most of your body that will easily give you 20 000 IU daily.

                      Vitamin suggestions are all over the shop. Do some research. E G most people are unaware that artificial B6 pyridoxine causes nerve damage from long term use. Best to get it in food form.

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                    3. nikoB, would you please double check your numbers. I think you may be x10 too high.

                      If you think you are correct, would you please provide a link that confirms 60,000 to 100,000 IU per day is a typical therapeutic dose. My research says 6,000 to 10,000 IU.

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                  2. Vit D Paper

                    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8299926/

                    Also different countries have different reference levels for what is considered deficient or normal.

                    But best people do their own research and do what they feel comfortable with.
                    I have been on at least 40000 IU per week for 4 years now.

                    That said I am trying to change to sun exposure more so that I am taking less sunflower oil that is in the vit D.

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                    1. Thanks, the highest dose it mentions is 50,000 IU per day, but only for people that are deficient and have a malabsorption problem. The normal dose is 1000 IU per day.

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                    2. As I said sun exposure is the best method and 30 mins a day will give you 20 000 IU. Probably the best thing for people to do is get their d levels checked and then supplement as necessary and check in again in 6 months.

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      2. We are also seeing cases for wrongful dismissal for transfection refusal in NZ. People are getting payouts.

        The first official death by Pfizer vaccine in NZ was only recorded because the parents of the victim got a lawyer to force the coroner to record the death correctly.

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      3. That’s such an important book that I’m going to share a link to it:

        https://books.ms/main/6B5C91AF0A35F693AE526840A9EEEBBD

        While encouraging people to actually buy it if they can, as the authors have had a positive impact on the lives of likely millions of children. It was the graphs from this book that first made me question vaccines; the book doesn’t touch on the harms caused by vaccines, but does go a very long way to show with only health service data that no vaccine (except rabies) has ever actually worked.

        Simon

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  19. US deficit up 40% from same period last year and the country’s not at war, yet.

    That’s not normal.

    Where does the money go?

    • old people +
    • sick people +
    • killing people +
    • interest on above

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  20. What’s the most amazing number in the universe?

    184,000

    That’s the liters of oil we burn per second.

    Per day we burn 15,900,000,000 liters.

    This recent podcast explains how oil was formed, how we extract it, and why oil is such a useful substance.

    It ends with some happy news that we have only used 50% of total reserves at the current price, and that reserves will increase as the price increases, so we have nothing to worry about.

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    1. I liked their explanations of how oil/coal/gas formed geologically. And all of the info about drilling, transport and refining. It was nothing new to me but was a nice refresher course pulling it all together.

      Sadly, neither of these guys seem at all overshoot aware. No problems discussed, re: climate change, peak oil (seems like they even denigrated the idea), wars over resources. I think it would be a vastly different conversation if they were the least bit more aware.

      AJ

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  21. Maybe the rats in the deep state are trying to undo some of their misdeeds before the inauguration?

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    2. Or maybe, covid was the start of a new kind of overt war, which is about to end (the question being: who against who? West vs. East, or the few vs. the many). The American empire only realizing now. Retreating and rebuilding on a smaller perimeter (it’s continent).

      We have not come to the bottom of this. I truly hope we will get a long Fauci trial, with a lot of truths uncovered. For me, this is necessary to make sense of what happened then. The question to me is: will I be able to trust what is going to be said? I sincerely hope so.

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      1. Me too. I’d really like to understand what happened before I die.

        I recently watched the new documentary “Thank You, Dr. Fauci”. Reviews are mixed but I liked it.

        So much happened that it’s easy to forget the details and timeline. I thought it did a good job of pulling together the important evidence for a China lab leak funded by Fauci, and the corruption/evil behind the exclusive push for mRNA transfections.

        I came away feeling like it offered plausible answers to most of the big questions (with a few exceptions) that have been bugging me. For example, why the strange early hot spots around the world? Because they covered up a super-seeder military games event in China and the athletes returned home infected.

        Not answered was why did China create panic in the early days by foaming the streets, faking people randomly dropping dead, and welding apartment doors shut? I have an idea on this. Given that they knew what went into the engineered virus, it’s quite possible they really were worried and wanted to set the mood for draconian measures in case they were required. Instead we got lucky and the virus turned out to be not that deadly.

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        1. You are probably right, as your interpretation is the least paranoid of all. Then, it’s really war of humans vs. natural laws. (or human hubris against humans)

          It would mean, this was mainly an accident. Like Tchernobyl, but with another realm of technology. And then the dominoes fell in place one after the other.
          It would mean that we really were at at a point in history were everything was interconnected and roughly in peace. Even though there were antagonisms between blocks, human collaboration was still the main driver. In particular, US and China, collaborating on biological “weapons”?

          The paranoid interpretation (of a war between China and US) would rather have that the chinese knew from the start covid was not dangerous and the videos were just to initiate the psychological war. And Fauci a corrupt traitor.
          The most paranoid interpretation (of a war between the few and the many) would be roughly the same, but the aim to subsume the masses with panic. (I don’t really buy this, as it would imply a level of integration beyond what I imagine possible now. But who knows really?)

          In any case, the good news, I am pretty convinced about, is that the force that was at play then, is now diminished. I am also of the opinion that the force biosphere as a whole is several orders of magnitude larger than any petty human intellect machinations.
          What I mean by that is, when it will be the time for the biosphere to stop/change human behavior, it simply will. I don’t think there is any intrisic problem with climate change or our behavior as a technological species. It’s just right, for what comes next. And it’s only the human intellect which does not get the big picture. (of course we have choices, but we can’t break the biosphere) My intuition is that, out of necessity (to feed ourselves), we will be put to work to green the planet. At the same time, several forceful brakes are applied on our collective push: rust, brain damage, reproduction changes (either by chemicals, or despair). Doomerism à la rintrah or paqnation is an adaptation. The gentle forceful hand of the biosphere is subtle but omnipresent (in every breath you take, every drop of water you drink, every piece of fungi at work…) We are allowed to live. If we mess it up too badly, we simply are deactivated, mostly nicely (at first). And recycled into other shapes and processes.

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    1. Those guys at Rewiring Aotearoa do my head in. I’ve given up commenting on their posts. But he’s a hero to most and even got an award at the Unsustainable Business Networks ‘A Little Less (possibly) Unsustainable Business Awards’. 😀

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  23. I’ve tried watching the movie My Dinner with Andre (1981) a couple of times. I end up falling asleep within 15 minutes. But I know it’s worth watching because people who I trust for movies recommended it highly.

    I like what they’re saying in this 3min clip. Try to stick with it because the last half is the better part.

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    2. I recommend the 3 TV movie series about the British spy Johnny Worricker starring Bill Nighy.
      Page Eight (2011)
      Turks & Caicos (2014)
      Salting the Battlefield (2014)

      I just finished watching it for the 4th time.

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      1. Thanks. That series looks very promising.

        LOL about your comment for dinner w/ andre… do you realize you are possibly the only person in the world who can recite when they saw it and what they rated it…. from a viewing experience 12 yrs ago. OCD at its finest… but it’s also very impressive.

        But I bet your rating system keeps you from some that you might like nowadays. I can’t think of any off the top of my head, but there are many that I’ve “grown” into. Oh wait, Awakenings (1990) is a good example. Hated it 20 years ago, but now I like it a lot.

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        1. I like Awakenings too but because its 1990 I did not have my media collection computerized so don’t have a rating but I have flagged it to watch again.

          I also highly recommend the 9 TV movie series Jesse Stone starring Tom Selleck. It’s a superb drama that I have watched 5 times.

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          1. Big fan of Tom. Magnum was one of the coolest tv characters, and I still watch that show. But always avoided Jesse Stone for some reason. Because of your recommendation I’ve watched the first two (liked em both). I’ll easily finish out this good series. BTW, all 9 are free on Roku streaming.

            p.s. Speaking of Magnum, there were so many good hour-long PI shows back then… Simon and Simon, Riptide, Spencer for Hire, Remington Steele, Moonlighting, Hart to Hart. The 80’s rocked!!!

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            1. Glad you’re enjoying it. I like the Jesse Stone writing and characters very much.

              There was some decent stuff in the 70’s too. I watched a few episodes of Kung Fu (1972) over Christmas and thought it was even better than I remembered as a kid.

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  25. Nothing has been done to punish the covid source to prevent a recurrence.

    Yet they punished those who refused mRNA transfections that were unsafe and did not work.

    We need new leaders with integrity.

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  26. The most expensive property for sale in the US costs almost 300 million dollars. It is a mansion right on the Florida coast and is almost guaranteed to flood within the next 30 years.

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  27. Rintrah with an interesting update on what the covid virus is up to.

    His story, I think, is the same one told by Geert Vanden Bossche, however I find Bossche to be incomprehensibly obtuse.

    The big picture summary is:

    • We created a problem with illegal gain of function research, and did nothing to punish the criminals to prevent a recurrence.
    • Then we transfected billions of people with a fix that that did not work, and that damaged their health, for a problem that did not require a fix, but did motivate the virus to become more deadly.
    • Then we denied what we did, and learned nothing from the mistake.
    • Now we are denying the future implications, and doing nothing to prepare.
    • We deserve whatever happens.

    https://www.rintrah.nl/the-improvement-of-the-polybasic-furin-cleavage-site-explained/

    It’s worth asking ourselves why this is happening now to SARS-COV-2. Why didn’t this change emerge before? Part of the answer seems to be that the virus is currently going through a bottleneck. There are relatively few people currently catching it, it has to compete with influenza and other viruses affecting the same respiratory tissues. This should now favor variants that spread systematically, hiding from the antibodies by fusing cells together and spreading through the body.

    You can’t expect vaccination to stop the polybasic cleavage site from improving. This was tried in chickens, it didn’t work. In humans it may be worse, due to original antigenic sin: The ability to develop novel antibodies against the polybasic cleavage site would be hampered by pre-existing antibodies to overlapping epitopes. This is what I mean, when I say that through mass vaccination you prohibit the population from discriminating against virulence associated epitopes.

    With a better polybasic furin cleavage site, you’re going to get a deadlier virus.

    This is not a very digestible story, there is no villain identified, there’s no conspiracy uncovered, it’s not going to earn me any money, it doesn’t have anything to do with Zionism or the World Economic Forum and it doesn’t mention Anthony Fauci. Three people are going to read it.

    But I explained it to the best of my ability and I show you my sources, I didn’t just make it up.

    And it doesn’t take a genius to figure this stuff out either. You just have to take a look at what happened to the viruses that we began vaccinating chickens against: Those viruses did not disappear, but instead gradually grew deadlier and began to jump over into other species thanks to the new mutations favored by the antibody response the chickens developed.

    This is not something that happens overnight, it’s a process that takes a number of years to unfold, if the problem we saw in chickens is to be our guide. We’re still in that process. The studies show that since the first Omicron wave, SARS-COV-2 has steadily been growing more virulent again, as it’s becoming steadily better able to fuse cells together again. The improvement of the polybasic cleavage site is part of that process.

    Fusing cells together allows it to spread undetected by antibodies. And so, vaccination is a great way to encourage this path of evolution towards greater virulence. As most antibodies don’t manage to pass the blood-brain barrier, it also encourages greater neurovirulence. This is what you saw with H5N1: It evolved to become a very neurovirulent virus, it now kills cats by destroying the brain.

    I understand none of this is very interesting to most of the population, but it just surprises me, that we see the same thing happening to SARS-COV-2 after vaccinating against it, that we witnessed happening to H5N1 after vaccinating poultry against it, but nobody seems to be very interested in where this is headed.

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    1. I like this comment by LSWM Lives Matter on Rintrah’s post.

      I pointed him to Varki’s MORT.

      Honestly I think a lot of the virologists and immunologists are in denial about what’s happening, and there’s a psychological explanation for their bizarre behaviour. They are complicit in pushing the vaccines, they themselves are vaccinated, they encouraged their friends and family members to take the vaccine, they even vaccinated their young children despite possessing the knowledge that every single previous attempt to vaccinate against SARS failed due to ADE. So for them to acknowledge that the mass vaccination experiment has failed catastrophically, would be to acknowledge that they have harmed themselves and their loved ones, which is a very heavy burden to carry. So they will likely remain in denial all the way to their graves.

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      1. Yup. Years ago, I had, as a private student, the head of a national pro-vaccine organisation; this was about the time I first became aware of the book “Dissolving Illusions” and the graphs contained therein showing, from government/health service data, that the great majority of vaccines have never worked. As I was younger and less cynical, I genuinely asked him what he thought of this data; he took it to his staff and responded a week or 2 later that their take was that any single life saved made vaccines a good thing (i.e. tacitly admitting that it appeared from health service data that vaccines didn’t make any big difference, if any difference at all). I didn’t at the time know the scale of the damage caused by vaccines (in my wife’s current class of 15 year olds, more than three quarters have a dis-something disease, which I don’t say is all down to vaccines, but likely much is), and I didn’t want to lose my job, so I let it lie. But most interestingly, this guy (a very intelligent, high achiever type) had some children, at least one of whom was suffering from some classic vaccine damage symptoms in a big way, and I can not believe that he was unaware of at least the potential connection; but he steadfastly refused to look that reality in the face. His children’s very lives be damned, his worldview took precedence.

        Simon.

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        1. Nice story.

          There are so many beliefs in the world that are not rational, and that cannot be swayed with evidence or logic, that I think I’d go crazy without MORT to fall back on as an explanation.

          I just had an unpleasant experience “debating” a pharma shill on X. He thought his industry was saving the world and that I am an gullible idiot. I asked him how he can sleep at night having helped to kill 7+ million people.

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          1. I used to think that humans were basically rational. Now I view them mostly as dangerously insane chimps intent on their next dopamine shot and woe betide anyone that gets in their way. I prefer dogs.

            I should also say that I don’t think rationality is the be-all, end-all of existence (I accept that the unseen plays a role in life, and I suspect that we are as children to much of that realm), but acting with reason as the guiding light does seem a sensible approach to physical incarnation.

            Simon.

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            1. 🙂 I like that comment. All of it.

              Balance.

              I suspect (but cannot say for sure, as I don’t know how it was before) that the so out-of-norm circumstances in which we bath in this modern world are a lot to blame. Humans constantly on high.

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              1. Entirely agreed, Charles. The times are extreme by just about any metric used, and I think it’s driven us all even further over the edge than humans tend to be in more historically normal times.

                Simon

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  29. This is crazy making. Even congressmen can’t get answers. What is going on?

    Trigger warning: There’s some god stuff at the end that you might enjoy, or prefer to skip, or as I did substitute the word god for good ethics and integrity.

    I’ve never seen something of that magnitude disappear from the news so quickly.

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    1. Man, that pic is scary. This lyric from the great song below, applies to all three of em.

      it’s in the eyes…. I can tell you will always be danger

      But ya I had completely forgotten about the assassination attempt. Feels like 6 years ago, not six months. I remember predicting that Chris Martenson would be spending the rest of life chasing that story. LOL, I got that one wrong.

      I’ve listened to 45min so far… and ya this whole story is freaking batshit crazy.

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    2. I think it’s kinda like they insinuated that the FBI is a corrupt institution that even Congress is scared to cross. I liked their theory that they (Deep State Dems) wanted to get rid of Trump before he picked a VP running mate. I do think we will hear more about this once Kash Patel gets in there. The good thing is that I think Vance is intelligent and would make a good substitute if anything happened to Trump.

      I’m not even suggesting that any of the people in any true power situations understand anything about the predicaments (overshoot, resources scarcity, climate, collapse) we are facing, but at least some might apply a little more logic and reason rather than ideology (left or right) to problems on our way down.

      AJ

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  30. Sarah Connor’s newest article touches on, “Because of our ability to manipulate our environment—we are the designated stewards of our planet”… and how we have failed miserably at it.

    Funny how our taste buds change during our journey. A year ago I might have applauded this article, but now I absolutely hate it. And I’m not alone. Sarah’s already had to make some edits to it because some of her fans are not having it😊. Children of the Earth

    And I like this comment from Ali:

    The nuclear mess we’ve created can’t really be contained or undone. It would take a massive global effort to dismantle every nuclear weapon and every nuclear power plant currently in existence and bury the waste deep underground (in repositories that don’t exist) to even have a chance. The likelihood of this is almost nil. So the waste will wreak its havoc for millennia to come. The most noble thing we could do on our way out would be to concentrate all our energy and resources on nuclear mitigation efforts. But we’re not a noble species. Or a wise one.

    I agree with Ali. But I’ve seen some people arguing (not in articles, mainly in comments) how the nuclear thing is not as big a deal as some of us make it out to be. They point to Chernobyl and how nature is thriving there now that humans have been removed. Or how the ozone will not be impacted at all.

    I don’t recall much discussion here at un-Denial on this issue. Just curious what you guys think the environmental impact will be with 440 nuclear reactors being left to rot and decay on their own.

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    1. My theory is Sarah Connor is an AI. Something’s not quite right about her writing. Or perhaps she’s just very young. Maybe she’ll stop by some day to confirm she’s made of meat.

      My understanding is nuclear power plants will make a mess when the grid goes down. I don’t know how far the mess will spread. Maybe someone else here has studied the issue.

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      1. Ya ever since you planted that seed in my head, I’ve been suspicious at times with the AI thing. Like some stories or paragraphs are little too tidy and neat.

        She shared some details about her NDE (stroke) and some other things that make me think she’s older. And I remember seeing her name in the comments on Alan Urban’s site before she had her own site… so I do think she’s made of meat😊. 

        But IIRC, Hamish introduced us to her site so maybe he’s the mastermind behind this AI bot🤭.

        ps. where ya been Hamish?

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    1. Hello my dear friends,

      It’s your long lost Gaia here to say I am still amongst the living. I trust all are well and your new year is going along as smoothly as possible with bursts of joy in unexpected times and places. Thank you Charles for reaching out here; so many times I wished to reply to your and Chris’ stirring piece but I have been completely overwhelmed by my own life these past couple months as our family tries to relocate and remake our lives. There were times I reached breaking point physically, mentally, and emotionally, but somehow I’ve been managing to keep going. It’s crazy how much energy (and stuff) just three people out of 8 billion consume; I find myself abhorred and fascinated at the same time, as in how can this be possible and for how much longer? We have availed ourselves of just about every permutation of fossil-fueled indulgence in shifting 3 fully loaded containers 3000km, and the cherry on top was hiring a crane to place one of those into position on our property.

      I feel like a complete hypocrite to be a card-carrying member of the overshoot doomsphere and my confession in this august company is only the beginning of the penance I am certain to place myself under.

      The most energy intense period of our mission is abating so I will have more time hopefully very soon now to flay myself publicly but please be assured that although I have been out of sight, this lovely group has not been out of my mind (although I have been out of my mind) and I am grateful that you will understand and forgive my silence and seeming abandonment.

      Thank you all for holding this space and keeping vigil on our twilight of civilisation as we have created it. May we in 2025 be a light in the darkness when all other lights go out, wherever and however we are.

      Much love and peace to you and your families.

      Namaste, friends.

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      1. Hello Gaïa gardener.

        Thank you for reaching out. I was beginning to worry.

        This seems like a good step forward in your life.

        All the best for this new interesting year.

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        1. Hello Charles,

          Never worry for me, that’s something you’ve been trying to teach me! I trust you and your family are well and embracing this interesting new year.

          We’ll meet again here soon and looking forward to it.

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        1. Hello Rob,

          I am trying not to feel guilty for absconding without any trace but I am ever so glad the gang’s all still here (and with a few new and very welcomed voices) and you at the helm keeping things steady on course.

          Things are getting weirder by the day, part of my angst is just trying to maintain a grip on whatever reality is before me so I can continue to live in it but also trying to step back and become more a witness/observer. Both stances take enormous amounts of emotional energy, at least for me, and I am trying to find ways to balance that. Being outdoors and physically doing something is good, planting trees or tending the earth is even better. Also listening to music (I am addicted to the 80s as much as classical) and banging on the cajon or djembe, drumming is extremely grounding and a great way to relieve stress, any one here also drums?

          Cooking and just reading through recipes I also find calming and very enjoyable. By the way, I agree with you that dried mushrooms are a choice staple and they do keep indefinitely. I keep mine in tins which keep out any moisture quite well. I still have some dried shiitake that were given to me from relatives in Hong Kong about 30 years ago and they are fine, also some porcini from my husband’s Czech relatives also about 30 years old (both of these have appeared from the bowels of the pantry upon our cleaning up and moving) and they still have the heady aroma. It’s wonderful how food and smells bring back memories. I am now trying to save back a bit more of these treasures for special meals later on when we may need a boost of pleasure, but then again, there’s something to be said for using it now or possibly miss out. But that’s okay, too, as someone else will probably find it and hopefully put all our stored food to good use.

          Hope you’re keeping warm and cosy enough.

          Namaste, friend.

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          1. It’s so good to hear your voice Gaia. No one turns a phrase like you.

            I’ve been practicing being present with my meal planning and eating. It increases the pleasure and appreciation for me, and I think helps me eat cleaner. No dramatic changes to my diet but I have cut back on the carbs and increased the protein and veg. Still eating 2 meals with 16 hours fast every day. I’m cooking with ghee now and loving it. I like ghee’s no refrigeration shelf-life and have stocked up.

            I was thinking about your dream of welcoming others to share your property to form a team. This song by Baba Brinkman, the science theme rapper from my province, came to mind. It’s a little cheesy but the message is inspirational.

            Stay well.

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            1. Thank you for that, Rob, and perfect timing. The video brought a smile and reinforced what I know to be my deepest truth even though that has been sorely tested as of late.

              The concept of Karma resonates profoundly with me, but not perhaps in the usual sense most people understand it to be. I named the little house in Tasmania that I designed and had built 20 years ago Studio Karma because it was to be my art studio and gallery as well as our home. The pure meaning of Karma is action, in that whatever action we take has a consequence and that applies to thought, word, and deed. I am not too fussed about the interpretation that whatever goes around comes around, that definition seems to placate many people but it is not retribution I seek but responsibility to live my own life to my highest vision. The Studio designation is not merely reference to an artistic pursuit, but a place where our intentions are nurtured and the choices and actions that arise from those intentions have their beginning every day as a constant mindful and heartful practice. So, Studio Karma to me is the home space from which I radiate my thoughts and actions outwards, and I desired that they may help alleviate suffering and add beauty and joy to this world. It is more than a bit poignant now that we are getting ready to sell this little house, too, but I have long believed that it is not the physical space that defines us, as comforting and familiar as it is. I carry the meaning of Studio Karma within me; I am the studio from which I create and paint my world, or at least my understanding and acceptance of it.

              You say I have a certain turn of phrase, I hope that this diversion into Gaia’s philosophy hasn’t turned you off too much!

              I still keep the happy thought that when you get filthy rich on Trump coin you and any others interested were going to join my commune and we can grow our own mushrooms and dance hand in hand around the fire pit (come on down, Chris!)

              I have just planted a few more mango trees (thank you David if you’re listening for the suggestion of Sweet Tart variety) and dragonfruit (also thank you David for getting me into these, I’ve got 14 different varieties now so I will be very happy to give you cuttings). There’s nothing more exhilarating to me than the hope of harvesting fruit in due time, my favourite metaphor of all.

              I am glad to have the head and time space again to contribute a bit here again, I’ve missed it and you are all good for me, more than you will probably ever know.

              Namaste, friends.

              PS Regarding the Vit D thread earlier, I have taken 50,000 units for a few days to get up to level and then maintenance of 5000 units/day or every other is okay, too, through the winter months. The sun is the gold standard, worthy of all our worship. The song I am thinking for all of you in the northern hemisphere is Here Comes the Sun, how can that not bring a smile? Currently, I am a milk chocolate brown, having soaked up Queensland sun (UV 15) for the past 6 weeks, so I think my Vit D level should be off the charts!

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  32. What an odd coincidence. One day before the inauguration, the US government has cut off funding to the organization that engineered the covid virus in Wuhan. No mention of a prosecution for causing the deaths of 7+ million people, nor for going after Fauci who signed the cheques.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-suspends-ecohealth-alliance-peter-daszak-after-covid-19-evidence-uncovered-house

    EcoHealth Alliance, the nonprofit that Dr. Anthony Fauci used to offshore risky gain-of-function research 6 months before the Obama administration banned it, has finally been cut off by the US Government – along with its former president, Peter Daszak, for a period of five years following scrutiny over its work in Wuhan, China ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    The decision by the Department of Health and Human Services was based on findings by the House Oversight Committee, which announced on Friday that EcoHealth and Daszak had been disbarred.

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  34. I was pleasantly surprised by the conclusions to this report The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth co-authored by, among others, Johan Rockström and Michael E Mann. Still a good dose of techno-optimism, energy and materials blindness and denial of reality but at least it mentioned population.

    “In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous illusion. We need bold, transformative change: drastically reducing overconsumption and waste, especially by the affluent, stabilizing and gradually reducing the human population through empowering education and rights for girls and women, reforming food production systems to support more plant-based eating, and adopting an ecological and post-growth economics framework that ensures social justice (Table S4).”

    Table S4 includes this statement on energy:

    “The world must quickly implement massive energy efficiency and conservation practices and must replace fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables [figure 2h] and other cleaner sources of energy if safe for people and the environment [figure S3]. We should leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels in the ground (see the timelines in IPCC 2018) and should carefully pursue effective negative emissions using technology such as carbon extraction from the source and capture from the air and especially by enhancing natural systems..”

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  35. I follow Gaya Herrington (LtG) on LinkedIn. She has 15,000+ followers. This was her latest post..

    “As we have entered 2025, it’s timely to reflect on resolutions that enhance lives and drive sustainability. In my recent TED Talk, I explore a well-being economy—in which progress is defined not by perpetual growth but by quality of, and service to, life.

    Skeptics argue businesses should prioritize growth for success over all else, yet this narrow definition is increasingly untenable. Rethinking success can turn sustainability challenges into lasting opportunities. Explore my latest blog post to learn more, and let’s commit to building an economy that truly serves society and our planet.“

    I politely responded…

    “Hi Gaya. I very much appreciate the work you did on limits to growth and the commitment you have to trying to improve the future. There are some lingering questions I have and I apologies if these questions appear confronting.

    1. How do you reconcile your understanding of ltg and messaging with working for a global entity who, let’s be honest, has the sole goal of growing shareholder returns? This quote from Schneider Electrics 2023 results from the CEO sums it up...

    “I am pleased to share that 2023 was another year of record performance for Schneider Electric, with +13% organic growth in revenues coupled with excellent organic margin progression… representing our 14th consecutive year of dividend progression.”

    2. A key element of the ltg research is tracking the declining of non-renewable natural resource. Recalibration23 of LtG “reflects the overshoot and collapse mode due to resource scarcity”. Production of oil, the master non-renewable resource, peaked in November 2018 and is predicted to begin declining year on year possibly before 2030. Without cheap surplus oil industrial civilisation collapses. There is no prosperous future without it. Why do you not talk about peak oil?

    3. Would SE meet these scientifically testable criteria that define sustainbility? https://richardheinberg.com/178-five-axioms-of-sustainability

    4. It is apparent the LtG report may have been the rosy version. In the book they didn’t allow for entropy and dissipation of materials, plus lower ore grades, meaning we require an ever increasing energy supply to even meet the ‘sustainable solution’. Is it possible to have a “Stabilised World” (or prosperous one) based on a finite and irreplaceable energy source? No. (Thanks to Hideaway and David H for this nugget)

    5. From your blog..”For example, a company that delivers renewable energy adds value by positively impacting community health and climate stability.” Yet renewable energy (actually non-renewable renewable energy harvesting technology) is completely reliant on fossil energy at every stage of their lifecycle. Renewables cannot build themselves. Additionally the extraction of the raw materials results in destruction of ecosystems and impacts on community wellbeing, most often in the global south. What matters is what’s happening in the world overall not in a city in the global north.

    Regards 🙏“

    She actually replied pretty quickly but unfortunately I can’t copy her response here because she just as quickly deleted it. She did say that there was enough in my comment for a day long discussion, and assured me she wouldn’t be working at Schneider Electric if they didn’t have a purpose beyond profits and that the CEO I quoted had been fired because he wasn’t a good “fit”. She said others in her circles talk about peak oil but she focusses on the Wellbeing Economy which sounds like heaven on earth…

    “The world we envision: In a Wellbeing Economy, our definition of societal success shifts Beyond GDP growth to delivering shared wellbeing. This involves a fundamental systems change. A good economy is when the rules and incentives are designed to ensure everyone has enough to live in comfort, safety, and happiness. When people feel secure in their basic comforts and can use their creative energies to support the flourishing of all life on this planet.

    When we thrive in a restored, safe, and vibrant natural environment because we have learned to give back as much as we are given. When we have a voice over our collective destiny and find belonging, meaning and purpose through genuine connection to the people and planet that sustain us.”

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    2. Hi Campbell, nice try…

      All the wellbeing economy or any of those proposing a equitably sustainable or any combination of words to describe a Utopian future is all just as delusionary as every religion. Take this quote from the linked Wellbeing Economy Alliance definition, I just deleted a few words and added nothing….

      “A Wellbeing Economy is an economy designed to serve people. Rather than treating economic growth as an end in and of itself and pursuing it at all costs, a Wellbeing Economy puts our human needs at the centre of its activities, ensuring that these needs are all met, by default.”

      I just deleted the words about the planetary stuff and left the remainder. It’s the delusion of those currently well off. They assume food comes from supermarkets, all they gadgets, including fridges, stoves, washing machines etc, come from big box stores and will continue to be available whenever the existing one breaks down at an affordable cost in dollars to them.

      Picture how many supporters of this group would accept they can only live in a one room apartment, have 20% of their current income with the prices of food tripling, and everything in their small abode that has a metal content cannot be replaced when it breaks down, including the hot water service, pipes, electricity wires etc. That’s what it would take for all 8.2 billion of us to live equitably, then add the vastly diminishing use of fossil fuels, mining and modern agriculture, to try and allow the planet to heal (whatever that means, probably more nature less humans).

      There is also the total lack of understanding of how the globalised world, which has given markets economies of scale, is more energy efficient on one level, while allowing Jevon’s paradox to work on another level (increasing energy and material use), with the complexity of the large interconnected civilization based on growing energy and material use, to exist, for still what is essentially only 20% or less of humanity on their scale of “wellbeing”.

      The evening out of “prosperity” would of course, even with this much lower standard of their living, be temporary at best, as everything suffers from entropy and dissipation, so pretty quickly no food is available in their cold, damp, one room apartment, because the trucks bringing the reduced food supply to the city all eventually breakdown, and so do the tractors, irrigation pumps, coolrooms, water pipes, fences, driveways, culverts, and every tool, on the farms.

      The delusion is “everything else remains the same” and we just make this massive change to ‘XYZ’, which guarantees “wellbeing” or whatever to everyone. People do understand the complexity of the area of their competence, but have hand waves of delusion about other aspects of modernity, like building “enough” renewables, without understanding they could never replace ‘products’ or ‘high heat’ provided by fossil fuels and are required for modernity to exist, nor any understanding of the complexity of building ‘more’ as in a global scale, of anything..

      You could take hours to try and explain reality to these types of people, but long before you get to explain the entirety of reality, their denial will kick in with the human ingenuity angle, as if this could overcome physical laws of nature, but believe it they will, which counters every argument any of us could muster.

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      1. Yes indeed. I have been following the WEALL for a while but all I can think of whenever I read anything from them is “meaningless word salad”.

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    3. Hi Campbell. Great post. I have regularly shared on LinkedIn that most measures of wellbeing are directly corelated to GDP, which is directly correlated to fossil fuel burning. And this is using UN data! So many things like literacy, life expectancy, happiness, housing, food, women’s safety, etc. are directly correlated. The wealthier a country is, the more wellbeing they have. There are some odd countries that throw the stats out a bit. For example, the USA has disproportionately high crime for its GDP.

      The thing is we don’t need a wellbeing measure to replace GDP because GDP is already a good measure of wellbeing.

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  36. How Fascism Came by Chris Hedges
    https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/how-fascism-came

    America’s democracy was destroyed by the two ruling parties who sold us out to corporations, militarists and billionaires. Now we pay the price.

    President-elect Donald Trump does not herald the advent of fascism. He heralds the collapse of the veneer that masked the corruption within the ruling class and their pretense of democracy. He is the symptom, not the disease. The loss of basic democratic norms began long before Trump, which paved the road to an American totalitarianism. Deindustrialization, deregulation, austerity, unchecked predatory corporations, including the health-care industry, wholesale surveillance of every American, social inequality, an electoral system that is plagued by legalized bribery, endless and futile wars, the largest prison population in the world, but most of all feelings of betrayal, stagnation and despair, are a toxic brew that culminate in an inchoate hatred of the ruling class and the institutions they have deformed to exclusively serve the rich and the powerful. The Democrats are as guilty as the Republicans.

    “Trump and his coterie of billionaires, generals, half-wits, Christian fascists, criminals, racists, and moral deviants play the role of the Snopes clan in some of William Faulkner’s novels,” I wrote in “America: The Farewell Tour.” “The Snopeses filled the power vacuum of the decayed South and ruthlessly seized control from the degenerated, former slaveholding aristocratic elites. Flem Snopes and his extended family — which includes a killer, a pedophile, a bigamist, an arsonist, a mentally disabled man who copulates with a cow, and a relative who sells tickets to witness the bestiality — are fictional representations of the scum now elevated to the highest level of the federal government. They embody the moral rot unleashed by unfettered capitalism.”

    …

    The political philosopher Sheldon Wolin called our system of governance “inverted totalitarianism,” one that kept the old iconography, symbols and language, but had surrendered power to corporations and oligarchs. Now we will shift to totalitarianism’s more recognizable form, one dominated by a demagogue and an ideology grounded in the demonization of the other, hypermasculinity and magical thinking.

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    1. Great link Stellar, but what are you trying to do to me?… raise my blood pressure?

      LOL. For the most part, I stay away from Chris Hedges nowadays. His writing seems to activate my WSDS (white skin derangement sydrome).

      I should have known better than to listen to this, but too late now… I’m back to my “Kill Whitey!” mode… LOL, just kidding.

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  37. https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-red-giant

    The Red Giant

    A main-sequence star, such as our Sun, converts hydrogen into helium in a slow and steady manner; radiating an immense amount of heat and visible light in the process. By the time our central star will have used up most of its hydrogen — about 4 to 7 billion years from now — it’s outer layers will begin to expand. Having lost its internal equilibrium the Sun will eventually transform into a red giant, scorching then absorbing all inner planets. After the red giant phase it will shed its outer layers, and will become a small, dense, cooling star — a white dwarf. It will no longer produce energy by fusion, but it will still be glowing incandescently until it slowly fades away… In about a trillion years.

    Industrial economies, like that of the US, convert fossilized sunlight (coal, oil, natural gas) and minerals into consumer products and pollution, consuming their resource base in the process. Unlike the Sun, such economies do not have billions of years to complete their lifecycles, though. Industrial economies must consume energy in an exponential manner in order to compensate for the steady loss of cheap and easy-to-get minerals they need for maintaining their inner equilibrium. As soon as their rate of energy conversion fails to keep up with the ever growing needs of their economic engine, though, large economies — much like main-sequence stars — tend to expand into a red giant, scorching and consuming all neighboring states in the process.

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    1. This is one of the poorer analogies given by The Honest Sorcerer, as the Sun going red giant in the future is a self contained entity, with all it’s ingredients from the start. In comparison would be a civilization from 5-7,000 years ago which were pretty much self contained in their own area.

      Only the total globalised economy could be compared to a star these days as that encompasses all inputs to any one country. The USA example ‘B’ uses has not been self contained, relying upon imports of massive amounts of embedded energy from all over the world over the last 50 years, while being involved in lots of trade for a lot longer…

      I use the example of a a massive star, which is far more complex than a ‘sun’ sized one to be the appropriate analogy of the world economy. The largest stars have complex arrangements of processes and elements in them, plus they use huge amounts of energy in a relatively small period of time, until they have exhausted all their energy then collapse quickly..

      It’s the same process of all self adapting systems that we know about, the smaller less complex systems have a longer life and slower death, while the larger and more complex the system, the faster the use of it’s energy resources and the faster the collapse at the end..

      This will no doubt have everything to do with internal efficiencies, of which larger more complex systems have for their processes, plus the internal networks of transferring energy and materials within complex systems, that also get more complex and efficient in larger systems.

      When the energy inputs break down, the larger more complex internal networks break down, meaning greater disruption to the whole large complex system, whereas a small system with less complexity overall, requires less access and reliance upon the networks. (take a village with 150 people providing everything for themselves, compared to a large city relying upon the networks of roads, rail, shipping, planes to provide all food. Most of the people in the village can walk out into the surrounding area and gather food, as it’s their normal practice, while in the city the lot collapses without those networks functioning all the time.)

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      1. Maybe it’s not the best analogy, but it’s a creative description of what’s happening. You have to give it to The Honest Sorcerer / B, that he can come up with a novel subject to post about every week. I sure couldn’t…

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        1. Ya, Hideaway might be being a tad harsh… but after all, this is the snob capital of the doomasphere for good reason. LOL

          B’s great and easily in my top 5 collapse writers… but in the last few months only one essay stood out for me. The ‘energy is time’ one. Love when these guys get me thinking about new stuff like that. Time Travel Will Surely Save Us – The Honest Sorcerer

          Time has no meaning without energy… Time is thus nothing more than a measure of energy dissipation…

          But ya, they can’t all be homeruns. Gotta be tons of pressure with having to basically just keep telling the same old story by coming up with fresh new angles… No way I could do it. LOL, it’d be my fire essay once a week with a few paragraphs rearranged😊.

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  38. Best discussion I’ve seen on why vaccines caused a 27,000% increase in autism since 1970. The source science the regulators use to approve vaccines is shockingly bad. I learned a lot I did not know. I also liked the discussion on how is it possible that so many intelligent, well intentioned people support policies that harm children.

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    1. Notice the effective date of the pardons.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain-of-function_research

      From 2014 to 2017, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Department of Health and Human Services instituted a gain-of-function research moratorium and funding pause on any dual-use research into specific pandemic-potential pathogens (influenza, MERS, and SARS) while the regulatory environment and review process were reconsidered and overhauled.[54] Under the moratorium, any laboratory who conducted such research would put their future funding (for any project, not just the indicated pathogens) in jeopardy.[70][71][72][73] The NIH has said 18 studies were affected by the moratorium.[74]

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    3. The only good thing I can say is that these “pardons” will be tested up to the Supreme Court. Many legal scholars have made the point that one can only exercise the pardon for crimes that identified, indicted, and prosecuted. Otherwise they are just inchoate speculations.

      Biden was the first president to do a prospective pardon. Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, Nixon didn’t pardon himself.

      Let’s see how this plays out. If the pardons hold then that party can be compelled to testify in the prosecution of others (right against self incrimination would not apply).

      AJ

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      1. Apparently they also lose the ability to plead the fifth and can be held until they talk.
        The sad thing is that most people will think that it is just to protect these poor righteous people from the evil of MAGA.
        The truth is that it is just another day of powerful people getting away with their crimes.

        Been going on for a long long time.

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    4. There are lots and lots of people expressing outrage at the pardons. This rant by el gato malo is the best I have seen.

      https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/pardon-me

      this entire process stinks like a red lobster dumpster in august.

      pardons only apply to past deeds.

      new crimes are still punishable.

      lying to congress is a crime.

      so, subpoena folks to testify in congress.

      ask them to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about the events of the last 4 years.

      they cannot be prosecuted for that which they did wrong in the past, so legalistically, they have nothing to fear except committing some new offense and they CAN be prosecuted if they are found to be lying to congress now and perhaps for a variety of other interesting things related to continuing to commit or hide the fraud of others. conspiracy, RICO, who knows, i’m sure some clever boots can find something.

      interesting fork for them.

      many will lose face, but will a capitol cop who was “just following orders” risk prison for perjury?

      brandon may have just created the ultimate “spill the beans” incentive structure.

      someone should press hard to use it.

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    1. Ahhh, my life makes sense again.

      He hasn’t lost a beat. Still funny as hell. And seemed like he was talking directly to me around the 25 min mark. “If you don’t want to hear me talking about Trump and my TDS… then get the fu#k outta here!! Go make your own channel.”

      LOL. When Sam left, I thought it would light a fire under my ass to get my channel going. But it had the opposite effect. Hopefully him being back will get me motivated again.

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    1. That’s what everyone who hates Musk thinks. A reasonable person can interpret the gesture differently. In a few months we should know which view is correct. I’ll bet you a can of sardines that Musk proves to be a good person in the new government, assuming Trump does not fire him for stealing too much limelight.

      I don’t care if Musk’s Mars plans are crazy, his purchase of X saved free speech.

      Limelight (also known as Drummond light or calcium light)[1] is a non-electric type of stage lighting that was once used in theatres and music halls. An intense illumination is created when a flame fed by oxygen and hydrogen is directed at a cylinder of quicklime (calcium oxide),[2] due to a combination of incandescence and candoluminescence. Although it has long since been replaced by electric lighting, the term has nonetheless survived, as someone in the public eye is still said to be “in the limelight”. The actual lamps are called “limes”, a term which has been transferred to electrical equivalents.

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        1. He’s a guy pumped with adrenaline throwing his heart to the crowd in thanks because he just won a battle that he risked a lot to fight in order to defend something he felt was important for the world.

          Here’s the full clip.

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      3. Elon Musk is doing everything in his power to make overshoot worse and at the same, he is peddling ineffective techno-fixes. Yes, I have a legitimate reason to hate him.

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        1. Elon is a douche bag con man for sure but don’t let yourself see shit that isn’t there.
          His arm is going out sideways not forwards. It was a gesture of from my heart to you all.

          This is a good example of how to lead people down a path of not thinking and just reacting.

          This is a nazi salute. Big big difference.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8iujof6IL8&t=6s

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  43. … and that gives me newfound hope in the American Dream

    Good news everyone; civilization is gonna make a giant U-turn. The future will be much brighter… LOL, hope sure does sell. I’ve gotta civil war brewing at my house because of this video clip. My brother and mom like this Shellenberger dipshit a lot. Never heard of him but he might as well be Jordan Peterson or Steven Pinker.

    You gotta love these clueless morons who are all about MAGA (regardless of political affiliation). They’re under some mass delusion that america had great leaders making great policies that led to america being great (kind of like me after my 5th grade american history course). They are willfully ignorant to any and all real accounts of US history. Their MAGA mantra basically equates to: please recreate WW2 again so that america can be the sole monopoly and therefore we’ll be great again. (and of course they’re completely energy blind about why that’s impossible)

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    1. I was surprised by Trump’s inauguration speech when he discussed the centrality of being the world’s biggest extractor of oil to US world leadership, and the need to increase it further to achieve his prosperity goals for the country.

      He seems energy aware but perhaps not depletion aware because he also talked about increasing energy exports to create wealth.

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      1. I think he is either unaware of depletion, in-denial or he just thinks that he can keep oil extraction up for the next four years and then it will be someone else’s problem/predicament.

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  44. I’ve said most everything I wanted to say at un-Denial and am now content with the site being a channel for other unfamous misfits like myself to publish essays, and for me in the comments section to chronical the collapse of society that is underway, and our denial of it.

    If I were to write another feature essay I think it would be on the topic of why are there so many people with good intentions that do evil things? I don’t see evil people doing evil things. I see people who believe they are good doing evil things.

    Recent examples include:

    • Fauci funded gain of function research and mRNA transfections that killed over 7 million.
    • Pharma CEOs and regulators that ignore evidence vaccines cause autism.
    • Hamas kidnapping of civilians.
    • Israel genocide of civilians.
    • British encouragement of Ukraine suicide.

    In this light I’d like to introduce you to Darryl Cooper, a historian who specializes in exposing the evil present in all sides of past conflicts.

    In his new Martyr Made podcast series that began today titled “Enemy: The Germans’ War”, he reviews the evil inflicted by the allies on Germany before, during, and after World War II. I am reasonably well read on World War II and had the view that while it’s true that the Treaty of Versailles was provocatively harsh, the Germans were by far the main source of evil in the war. Cooper argues this is not true.

    https://subscribe.martyrmade.com/p/martyrmade-24-enemy-the-germans-war

    “The Second World War was the greatest catastrophe in human history. Sixty million people dead. Entire nations destroyed. All sides engaged in the wholesale slaughter of enemy civilian populations. And the nuclear demon unleashed upon the world. It was the war in which the United States and our allies conquered the world, and eighty years after Germany’s defeat, the story of the war remains our civilization’s most important load-bearing myth. Myths are stories told by the winners to legitimize their victory, but in real history the losers have their own story to tell. This series will explore the deep history of the Second World War through the eyes of the Enemy.”

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    1. Gave it a couple minutes just to give it a try. An hour and a half later… I’m still listening.

      This guy is good. Please post his next show. This kind of content reminds me of Howard Zinn.

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      1. What Chris said. I’ve read Vonnegut’s “Slaughterhouse 5”, about his experience of being in Dresden when it was firebombed (he survived because he was a PoW incarcerated in a below-ground meat cellar, the eponymous slaughter house), but I didn’t know Dresden was just the peak of that process of the Allies mass slaughtering civilians.

        Have you come across Jerm Warfare, Rob? I’d forgotten about him since the depths of the covid madness (he did some good interviews at a time when it felt pretty lonely to question the propaganda), but the Martyr Made podcast reminds me a little of his work.

        Simon

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    1. My understanding is the WHO does a lot of good basic health/nutrition/sanitation work, in addition to all the covid nonsense. Sounds like throwing the baby out with the bath.

      Thanks and good health, Weogo

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      1. No forgiveness for supporting the transfection of billions in the middle of a pandemic with a non-sterilizing inherently dangerous mRNA technology, and for not pulling the fire alarm when safety signals became obvious, and for not recommending safe and effective alternatives. The WHO needs to burn in hell.

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        1. Here is what the WHO recommends today:

          https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/covid-19-vaccines

          Everyone, everywhere, should have access to COVID-19 vaccines.

          Major progress has been made with the COVID-19 vaccination response, and it is critical to continue the progress, particularly for those most at risk of disease.

          WHO recommends a simplified single-dose regime for primary immunization for most COVID-19 vaccines which would improve acceptance and uptake and provide adequate protection at a time when most people have had at least one prior infection.

          Available data suggest the monovalent Omicron XBB vaccines provide modestly enhanced protection compared to bivalent variant-containing vaccines and monovalent index virus vaccines.

          When monovalent XBB vaccines are not available, any available WHO emergency-use listed or prequalified vaccine, bivalent variant-containing or monovalent index virus vaccines, may be used since they continue to provide benefits against severe disease in high-risk groups.

          Here is my plain speak translation:

          • Everyone including children should be transfected with mRNA.
          • We now recommend a single dose, instead of multiple doses that work better, because it reduces hesitancy so more children can be transfected.
          • We recommend vaccines designed for the current virus variant but if you can’t find one you should inject anything that is available.

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          1. Other nuggets from the WHO web site:

            Increasing evidence on the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy suggests that the benefits of vaccination during pregnancy outweigh potential risks whenever there is ongoing or anticipated community transmission of the virus.

            I searched the site for vitamin D advice. Not one word.

            I searched the site for ivermectin. Not one word.

            I searched the site for advice to the obese to cut their carbs to reduce health risks. Not one word. Instead they confirm they are idiots by reminding us that calories in must not exceed calories out.

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            1. The WHO is just Pharma/Western Medical Complex’s propaganda outreach arm to the world. And to think they wanted the U.S. (along with everyone else) to join a treaty where they could overrule the government and enforce vaccinations and lock downs. Sounds like a Davos kinda organization.

              At least Trump did one thing right (sadly there will be lots of bad things coming from him too).

              AJ

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              1. “The WHO is just Pharma/Western Medical Complex’s propaganda outreach arm to the world.”

                Hmm, I’m learning something here. Did WHO ever do anything good?

                Thanks and good health, Weogo

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    2. And then Debbie Downer shows up…

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  47. I’m beginning to wonder if Art Berman is psychotic. Today he argues oil depletion will not be a problem for at least 60 years.

    https://www.artberman.com/blog/lazy-thinking-how-memes-get-oil-all-wrong/

    There are nearly 2 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves worldwide, with about the same amount in technically recoverable conventional crude resources (Figure 1). At current consumption rates, that’s 60 years of oil that’s for sure at today’s prices—plus another 70 years that is probably there but may require a higher price to become viable. Then, add another 80 years from tight and heavy oil, and maybe a century from NGLs (natural gas liquids). Even with a skeptical take, it’s hard to argue there’s not enough oil to get us to whatever cliff civilization is headed for—whether in 5 years or 50.

    The idea that the world’s oil supply is shrinking just isn’t true. As of September 2024, global liquids production had surpassed its pre-COVID peak of 102.1 mmb/d (Figure 2), and the EIA projects it will grow by another 2 mmb/d by late 2026—hitting a new record high.

    Crude oil and condensate haven’t quite bounced back to pre-pandemic levels yet, but they’re expected to get there by the end of 2026.

    Another meme is that oil reserves aren’t keeping up with demand. In reality, global reserves are at record highs (Figure 3). Reserve growth has slowed since 2013, aside from a bump in 2021, and that’s worrying. Still, reserve additions come in cycles and, at today’s consumption rates, existing reserves could last nearly 60 years without new discoveries.

    Contrast this with his stark warning last year about rapidly falling shale well productivity.

    I don’t get it. Maybe Hideaway can shed some light. Or maybe we need a psychologist.

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    1. If I recall from a conversation with Nate, Art has the idea that we can step back to a 1980s or 1950s type situation. I can see how someone would think that if they 1) don’t understand population, 2) don’t truly grasp environmental degradation, and 3) don’t understand how obsolete technologies are gone, not waiting for us to go back in time.

      However, psychosis is also possible. And it is quite common for a person having an episode to post more and more bizarre things on the internet. A recent example was the guy Rudyard from Whatifalthist on YouTube. https://substack.com/home/post/p-153949971?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Often the process starts slowly. I have experienced something similar in person with a close family member, it was horrible.

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      1. Sorry I should explain my idea a bit better. Because he believes we can step back to a lower energy time, the proven recoverable reserves could seem to be enough. But when we factor in diminishing returns and that the global economy will collapse if it stops growing, this idea impossible to accept.

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      2. Forward, to the paleolithic! I just hope we keep the technology of writing.

        I see people becoming more and more bizarre as time passes; I think it’s a consequence of brain damage from repeated covid infections. At least part of the current “quad-demic” is covid, and I know from my own experience that there can be neural impacts from covid. I think the tiniest minority out there in anyone thinking about covid is those that think both that gene therapy shots are a Very Bad Idea, and covid is actually potentially quite dangerous for its ongoing damage to people’s immune systems and brains.

        Cheer as ever, Simon.

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        1. Simon, I agree something strange is going on. People are dumbing down everywhere I look. Scientists, politicians, journalists, friends, family, you name it.

          Yesterday Canadian Prepper went ALL IN on Musk’s Hitler salute. He used to be immune to media manipulation.

          Monk, contrary to what you recently said, Canadian Prepper just listed his core beliefs and did not mention energy depletion. I left the following comment:

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            1. I wouldn’t call it a shame. I’d call it incredibility interesting that a person obsessed with studying and preparing for disasters does not discuss the highest (and 100% certain) risk.

              Maybe he’s another poster child for MORT?

              Or maybe discussing overshoot reduces YouTube ad revenue?

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              1. I have heard him discuss peak oil before many times on the channel. Maybe he doesn’t understand how serious it is or think some tech solution will solve it..

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              2. Every doomer or TS Will HT Fan person I know, doesn’t have a clue about energy. And they aren’t interested because whatever their doom thing is can be fixed. Ours can’t. Our bad sorry.

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              1. The point is none of the gestures were a Nazi salute. Please watch the full video of Musk making that gesture. You will see that he was throwing his heart to the crowd in emotional gratitude.

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                1. I think only Musk’s inner mind knows what he really meant, but it was far more Hitler-like than what those Democrats did in the full context of motions that preceded the arm-thrust.

                  My biggest problem with Musk is his “population collapse” rhetoric, which goes beyond just first-world nations losing births. He’s said that Earth could support 10X the current 8 billion people.

                  And he has a hobby of filling near-Earth space with satellites that are already affecting astronomy, still not close to their total planned numbers. His rocket explosions also keep putting junk in the oceans and he’s mocked environmental protocols to protect marine life. Just a general techno-douche.

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                  1. If you watch the unedited video of Musk making that gesture you will not need to read his mind. It’s obvious what he was doing and it had nothing to do with Hitler.

                    I agree with your other comments about Musk.

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      3. There is so much waste in the system that we might be able to weather 10-15% decline in oil extraction without taking too much of a hit to human well being, if we play our cards right. (Which we are not doing). What do you think we will do when push comes to shove?

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        2. I used to think that, but now I am not so sure. I suppose we could save a lot of resources by just cutting the lifestyles of the billionaires in half – but how likely is that?! If we got a stepping-down decline like Greer has described, we could enter a new period of stability at a lower energy level (but after a collapse period). I think this is plausible. Watkins has speculated that there could be significant decline in Western countries, while the Eastern ones maintain a level of growth/stability for the next 10-20 years.

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      4. Ya, the psychosis thing is gonna be fun to watch. It’s one of the perks of being alive for the end of the world as we know it. Yes I love to stir up the fear mongering, but I don’t think anyone here would disagree that the collective psychosis is gonna look something like the famous carbon pulse diagram.

        Doomers will have the best chance of keeping their wits, but many will crack under the pressure (Art strikes me as one of these). Kind of reminds me of a good movie called Pushing Tin (1999) about the air traffic control industry and how the pressure can make even the most experienced controller “crack”.

        Or maybe Art has been gotten to. Was given a bag full of money to start changing his story around by adding tons of hopium…. but more than likely it’s just Art’s denial trying to protect him from the scary truth.

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    2. While most of this bit sounds very real, it does miss the big picture of size complexity power laws…

      “There are nearly 2 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves worldwide, with about the same amount in technically recoverable conventional crude resources (Figure 1). At current consumption rates, that’s 60 years of oil that’s for sure at today’s prices—plus another 70 years that is probably there but may require a higher price to become viable. Then, add another 80 years from tight and heavy oil, and maybe a century from NGLs (natural gas liquids). Even with a skeptical take, it’s hard to argue there’s not enough oil to get us to whatever cliff civilization is headed for—whether in 5 years or 50.“

      There also seems to be a bit of double counting in there, but it’s not really relevant.. Today we can technically obtain oil from kerogen, but no-one commercially produces this oil as it’s too expensive. The 2 trillion barrels of oil reserves includes all the inflated numbers from OPEC countries including Venezuela and Canada oil sands.

      What Art misses, and so do most people about anything regarding the future, is how our world is not constant..

      Look at the increasing growth rate of oil use (or anything else for that matter) over the last 60 years, so whenever anyone states ( At current consumption rates, that’s 60 years of ……) oil or anything else, they are blind to all the efficiency and technical gains we’ve had from the GROWTH over the last 60 years.

      60 years ago, we used 30 tonne dump trucks in mining of much higher grade ores for everything. We were able to mine greater quantities of every metal, mineral and fossil fuel because of greater efficiencies, plus increasing quantity of all these things, that allowed for technical innovation as the whole system grew. The largest open cut mines use 350 -450 tonne dump trucks, which are highly complex very efficient machines Likewise in Agriculture as larger more complex and efficient machinery allowed people to be freed up from agriculture for other purposes.

      Even with the increased efficiency of all the machines used, we have been using increasing amounts of energy to just maintain metal and mineral production, plus like everything else in our world we used up the easy to get higher grades first. Now we have falling grades which are falling faster than any new ‘technical’ as in more efficiency gains. Efficiency gains suffer from the laws of diminishing returns.

      As a result in the future the cost of all the material inputs for gaining access to all the oil that is currently classed as economic, will increase as the energy costs of gaining a tonne of iron, potassium, phosphate, copper, lead, zinc, nickel, aluminium etc, etc, etc increase. Plus of course the quantity of all the metals needed for ‘technically’ available oil has to rise greatly as most of our oil still comes from the old simple vertical oil rig in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE, Russia and the older USA conventional wells, along with older wells around the world.

      All this easy to get material wise oil, has to be replaced with more ‘technical’ oil, that is profitable with current prices of equipment, but as demand for all the equipment (think deep sea drill rigs, or all the processing plants and machines for Tar sands) grows markedly, so will the cost.

      For all the other ancillary industries to grow, so must the background system, and mining, with more agriculture to feed the growing population providing everything.

      In other words to continue to gain access to all this ‘technically’ available oil, we have to keep increasing overall energy use and the system as a whole has to grow and continue to innovate, to make up for all the declining ore grades.

      Without the continued growth of both size and complexity, we will lose existing technology as more of current energy use has to go into mining all the metals, minerals fossil fuels and most likely agriculture as well (Ag is a long post by itself, because of environment, pests, diminishing returns, etc!!).

      As the energy available for ‘everything else’ has to decline (in a constant energy world), the ability to innovate declines, our economic system of growth/debt can’t work, so internal aspects of our economy break down, but so also do sales of all companies making ‘stuff’ including those required for the gathering of metals, minerals, and food.

      It’s feedback loops, inside feedback loops, which makes every aspect of our globalised civilization connected. Art makes the classic mistake of assuming everything else remains equal throughout civilization to state ‘we have 60 years worth of oil at current rates of extraction’, because that’s not the world we live in. Everything else cannot remain ‘equal’ unless we keep having growth, which means growth in oil use just like the last 60 years, but higher as we’ve used all the easy to get efficiency gains which originally offset all the declining grades of every ore, oil, gas, and coal deposit.

      Sorry, this is the short version but still took to long, because every aspect of our complex civilization is connected, and taking one section as able to continue ‘at current rates’ is just bullshit, because in reality it has never operated in isolation, nor has any other aspect of our complex civilization. If the mining, agriculture and energy sectors had to go back to the technology of the 1950’s, we wouldn’t have access to most of the oil, gas, coal, metals and minerals, that are left and the ‘reserves’ would plumet.

      Civilization has been proven time and time again that it goes forward with further growth and technical innovation or collapses. We’ve had countless civilizations in the past that all collapsed. To think our far larger and much more highly technical one that relies upon massive networks to work seamlessly in the background while our energy and material availability grow infinitely on a finite planet is human hubris at it best/worse.

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      1. Thanks Hideaway.

        I think I agree with all that you said, although it does take me some time to digest big new ideas like those you’ve brought here, however the point I wanted to make is that even if someone disagrees with your belief that population and/or material consumption must grow to avoid collapse, your conclusion still remains intact.

        The key point (I think) is that the quality of source energy and minerals is falling due to depletion, and therefore more energy and more complexity is required to maintain a given supply of energy and minerals, which means the rest of the economy must contract to free up the necessary energy, thus making it impossible to increase the complexity needed to harvest the depleting minerals and energy at the same rate.

        Presumably Art Berman is blind to this, as most of us here were blind prior to your arrival, because he is not thinking about minerals.

        I’m still puzzled by the huge shift from pessimism in his interview last year to the confident optimism of his essay today.

        Something else must be going on.

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        1. Yes. Isn’t it all about EROEI, and not at all about reserves? Large reserves don’t matter if energy accessible to the end-user decreases anyway year on year.

          I don’t understand Art’s motivations, but I found this paragraph misleading:

          The idea that the world’s oil supply is shrinking just isn’t true. As of September 2024, global liquids production had surpassed its pre-COVID peak of 102.1 mmb/d (Figure 2), and the EIA projects it will grow by another 2 mmb/d by late 2026—hitting a new record high.

          Instead of volumes, energy content should be graphed. And then the amount used by the extractive energy subtracted. Then we would see the trend that matters to the end-user.

          For me, it’s obvious the end-user has been having access to less energy for quite a while. It’s been somewhat hidden in multiple ways (debt, increased gap between rich and poor so that the average stay the same, optimization by getting large volumes from overseas, less reliable products…)

          Maybe Trump is battling the medical system (apart from the fact that it is now corrupt) to optimize overall energy use. It’s a form of societal triage. Either the current medical system is really overall counterproductive, and then it will free up energy for some other aspect of the economy without much negative impacts. Or, it’s really working and then it will have an impact on life expectancy which further frees up some energy (sorry for being cynical here). It’s only one example, but I believe one should observe Trump’s decisions in light of energy availability. It explains much.

          Now, we are getting at the point where it’s hard to keep pretending. Many of the generation of Art are afraid of the bankrupcy of the pension system. I think that’s what coming pretty soon (among other things).

          There are huge issues with debt and the monetary system. A colleague of mine shared this site: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/, which is pushing crypto (I am not saying crypto is a solution, I am just saying the system feels how close it is getting to a moment similar to Bretton Woods). Isn’t Trump issueing his own crypto further discredit for the dollar?

          About energy decreasing/collapse, we are not at the time of predictions anymore, we are living it.

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      2. A minor quibble- There is some commercial extraction of kerogen from oil shale deposits in a few countries. They likely only exist because of sunk cost trap. A post or two ago, I mentioned that I worked on one of the short lived kerogen projects in Colorado back in the early eighties. Google “Union process” some time. It ended up producing 5mm barrels.

        There is a huge amount of fossil energy locked up in the shale oil deposits in the area, but it is you would describe “diffuse” so there it will sit.

        When I’m feeling a bit hopeful, I think there might be a narrow but possible path between Dr. Morgan’s “eliminate discretionary consumption, and extend the basics for a good long while” and the complexity/declining ore concentration doom loop that you describe. That feeling doesn’t last too long.

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        2. Hi Scarrow, thanks for that… “A minor quibble- There is some commercial extraction of kerogen from oil shale deposits in a few countries. They likely only exist because of sunk cost trap. “

          I was aware of different demonstration plants around the world and use to follow the development of the kerogen deposits in Australia, which were always waiting for oil to just get a bit more expensive, before they were viable. When oil was in the $20-40 range and especially when it spiked to $40/bbl the Queensland deposits ‘only’ needed the price of oil to go to $70 to be commercially viable, according to the marketing.

          It was always just out of reach, with never any allowance for costs of building the processing plants going up, because the oil price had risen. Back in around 2005-7, I can remember how the price of oil only had to rise to $200/bbl for the kerogen to be viable…

          They did build a demonstration plant, paid for by govt money …

          https://qer.com.au/projects/gladstone-new-fuels-development-project-stage-1/

          It produced 1.5Mbbls of high quality fuels… Well that’s what they claimed anyway…

          This ASX announcement has the best description/photos/diagrams of this demonstration plant that operated ……….

          https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130410/pdf/42f53r3mydjr2h.pdf

          From different source….

          “The Paraho II technology based demonstration plant built in 2009–2011 at the new location consists of a vertical shaft kiln. Later the oil upgrading unit will be added. At the demonstration stage, the plant utilises 60 tonnes of oil shale per day producing 37–40 barrels per day (5.9–6.4 m3/d). It uses lumps of shale instead of fine particles used by the ATP processor. The demonstration project is to cost over $100 million.”

          ……………….

          I’m very wary of what’s called “commercial” these days as the Haru Oni synthetic fuel plant, from renewable energy (wind), in Southern Chile was declared to be starting “commercial” production in March 2023, but only produced 24,000 litres in the next 8 months. There is nothing “commercial” whatsoever about that plant, it’s basically a scam because the EROEI of the entire operation is negative, with the actual processing efficiency something like 1.6%!!

          I worked out last year that just getting the processing plant operators to work and home each day, if they used the fuel produced from the plant, would probably use most of the produced synthetic fuel. (The company has never released anything about how many people it takes to operate the plant, nor anything about operating costs that I could find).

          If a junior oil exploration company found a 15 billion bbl oil deposit in 500ft deep water, with great porosity etc, that could produce 1 million bbls per day, all the oil majors would fall over each other to be part of funding the operation for a percentage of the profits even if it cost $10B to build the production platform. Such a discovery is what I call “commercial” as everyone can clearly see the profit over time of such a find…

          To my knowledge no-one anywhere is falling over each other to develop the processing plants to produce 1 million bbls/day from kerogen, because no-one can see any fantastic viability, as in huge profits from them.

          As we go forward in time, with lower grades of everything being mined, I expect the costs of kerogen extraction from new plants to get further and further out of reach, just like costs of new off shore oil rigs for smaller oil finds are not really viable. There are plenty of small fields in the North sea which are just not large enough to develop due to high capital costs, likewise for some recent finds off the NW shelf in Australia..

          Any one small aspect of our entire situation of modern civilization can be found to be an exception to overall viability of civilization, but every kerogen plant in the world only operates because of all the machinery, equipment, roads, bridges and educated people provided by fossil fuels over the last 200 years. Kerogen is realistically in the same category as all renewables, only possible because of fossil fuels providing every aspect of their existence and as cheap fossil fuels leave us, especially oil, then all the new kerogen projects become less and less viable, while the old ones all suffer from entropy and when something major breaks down and can’t be replaced the operation will close as it’s no longer economic to fix and operate..

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    3. Others also noticed the strange behavior of Art Berman.

      https://peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-energy-outlook-january-2025/#comment-785156

      Steve St. Angelo:

      SEPPO,

      With Art suggesting 1.8 trillion barrels of conventional and 4 trillion of misc unconventional, I am surprised he didn’t include the supposed 100 trillion barrels of Abiotic Oil reserves deep in the Earth’s mantle. 🙂

      Unfortunately, Art continues to exclude the Falling EROI of Oil and the massive increase in U.S. and Global Debt in his Oil analysis.

      Lastly, Art is excellent at speaking out of both sides of his mouth.

      steve

      Dennis Coyne:

      Seppo,

      This is lazy thinking by Art where he double counts reserves and is pretty sloppy with his use of resources and reserves.

      A much better analysis at link below by Rystad

      https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/global-recoverable-oil-barrels-demand-electrification

      They put the number at about 1500 Gb for recoverable oil reserves. with recent extraction at about 30 Gb per year that is about 50 years at the current rate. About 1500 Gb of oil has been extracted to date, so if the production curve roughly follows a symmetrical bell shaped curve (this may not be a correct assumption) it suggests we may be near peak oil output today.

      JT:

      Something is up with Art a year ago he was talking stealth peak because of diesel shortages . Now no peak.

      The unaffordablity we see happening globally is a reflection of a shortage in net energy that is primarily impacting the real economy represented by people who actually do stuff. The do nothing investor class thinks everything is fine as wealth has been accumulating in the top 1% .

      If we look at things from the correct perspective it all makes sense. With surplus energy declining money creation cannot go to the bottom 90% because unfortunately they’ll spend it on necessity and some discretionary. This will result in run away price inflation because of the supply shock of too few goods being caused by the economy contracting into the existing surplus energy. Whether the gross liquid volume exceeds the previous peak or not the net surplus supply is shrinking. Since the real economy is slowly dying the false financial economy will have to explode higher in asset inflation like AI and housing until it eventually breaks.

      The result is a shortage of bank collateral that is crushing lending and creating a dollar shortage. It’s just a matter of time before someone panics and everyone runs for the exit.

      Art is a family man and I wonder if pushing off the present predicament is giving him some comfort.

      Steve St. Angelo:

      JT,

      Agree 100% with your reply.

      There is a reason that Art BLOCKED me on Twitter or X a few years back. While I was providing respectful replies using data, he didn’t see it as a positive thing. Rather, he warned me if I continued, “Disrespecting his sophisticated clients that followed him,” he would BLOCK ME.

      Well, that was a challenge I couldn’t ignore… so he BLOCKED ME… LOL.

      Because Art is a Geologist, he has to remain relevant. Thus, I’d imagine he has the DEVIL and ANGEL sitting on both of his shoulders whispering in his ear.

      His articles now depend upon which one speaks louder… in my opinion.

      steve

      Mike B:

      True, I’m a lay person who really doesn’t know squat, but Art’s article shocks me a bit as he makes a big mistake of confusing peak oil — which concerns flow rates — with “running out,” which is beside the point. He does it several times in the article:

      “Shale plays stepped in not because conventional reserves were running out, but because developing them was too slow.”

      “Yes, Peak Oil will happen—finite resources eventually run out.”

      He also commits the dreaded “reserves fallacy.” Two trillion barrels? So what? What kind of oil is it, where is it, and how fast can it be extracted?

      I believe it was Laherrere who used to say, “The issue is not the tank, it’s the tap.”

      This itself is “Bad Thinking”!! These are “Bad Memes”!! WTF, Art??

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      2. If Dennis from POB is calling your forecasts lazy and unrealistic then you know you have got a problem. It was Art who pointed out that shale plays outside U.S will likely never be exploited because of geology and that energy of NGL which is lumped into total liquids is miserable compared to things like diesel.

        There are only a couple of possibilities

        1. Either his denial has finally kicked in with full force after seeing that we are diving headfirst into collapse by depleting what’s left of our limited reserves while at the same time shattering all worst case climate predictions, LA fire being the latest example. He has kids and grandkids so that definitely plays a role.

        2. There could be a financial incentive pushing home to go back on his earlier positions.

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  48. This is an interesting deep dive into the EV market. What stood out for me is that given the reduced complexity of an electric motor drivetrain compared to an internal combustion drivetrain there was a great opportunity to simplify our transportation products to increase reliability and to decrease cost (battery excluded).

    Instead manufacturers did the opposite by increasing software and gadget complexity.

    This complexity is killing VW because it lacks the software skills to compete.

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    1. Hi Rob,

      When built, our 2014 Mitsubishi I-MiEV was relatively simple, and, compared to today’s EVs, is far simpler. 

      According to the range remaining estimator, with a full ‘tank’ of electrons, the battery still has about 93% of its original capacity.

      Electricity is from a big solar array about five miles from here, a hydro dam about 15 miles away, the natgas plant about 20 miles, or the nuke about 60 miles away.

      I still volunteer at the Asheville Bicycle Co-op…

      Thanks and good health,  Weogo

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      1. Nice. Good on you.

        My 2004 Toyota Sienna that I bought new is still running well but many of its fancy options like power sliding door, power sun roof, and seat heaters stopped working a long time ago. I should have bought the basic model.

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  49. Transfection is a 20 year old failed and unsafe technology that pharma needed to grow their businesses which explains why they used a faked covid emergency to rename transfections as vaccines, and to pretend it is a new patentable technology, and to jam approval without proper testing they knew would fail via Emergency Use Authorizations.

    Now they will say, “yes you’re right, due to the covid warp speed rush there were some impurity problems, and spike protein problems, and LNP problems, but we’ve fixed those problems now. There’s no need for a new 10 year blind placebo test because it’s the same mRNA technology that we tested and proved is safe via billions of covid injections, and your trusted governments have confirmed it saved millions of lives.”

    Here’s an example of what they have planned:

    You go for a free annual blood test that discovers early stage cancer, just like when you went for a PCR test dialed up to 11 that confirmed you had covid.

    Then they sequence your genome and use AI and robotics to create a unique mRNA vaccine to cure your cancer.

    After several very expensive injections you go back for another blood test and watch as an impressive robotic gene sequencer with flashing lights computes your fate. Finally, the printout is somberly read by an oncologist in a white coat who with tears in his eyes says “Congratulations, you have been cured of a cancer which would have killed you in about 20 years. Oh, and don’t forget to be tested next year just in case you get a different cancer. We don’t know why, but ever since covid, cancers have been on the rise, so be safe and get tested regularly.”

    You’re so grateful that you don’t mind having taken out a loan and spent all of your savings for the treatment.

    This is entrepreneurship at its finest, using innovative technology to create growth and prosperity.

    Every country will want it.

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    1. All funded with $500 billion of public money.

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      1. Do you think DOGE will address this or will DOGE just simply cut government services to the bare bones, so they can cut taxes to further enrich the oligarchy?

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        1. I made my prediction on this in your 2025 prediction thread.

          I think DOGE will proceed until the stock market cracks and then Trump will fire Musk, cancel DOGE, and print/spend money like crazy to keep the ship afloat. I do not know if this will be enough to prevent the mother of all bubble corrections.

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    2. Why are all these motherf*ckers obsessed with sickness and vaccines?

      Why not focus on good health and prevention?

      Because vaccines is where the money is.

      Got a crap technology like transfection that doesn’t work and is unsafe?

      Rename it a vaccine and you’re golden.

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  50. xraymike79 with a new essay today.

    https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2025/01/21/modern-civilization-is-proving-to-be-a-very-fragile-thing/

    Let’s not mince words; we are returning the planet to the climate volatility characteristic of the Pleistocene Epoch when agriculture was impossible, but we are doing it with fire rather than ice. There is no analog in geologic time for such a Fire Age, other than the similarity with prior mass extinctions wherein the chemical makeup of the atmosphere and oceans was altered through volcanism, albeit at a much slower rate and longer expanse of time. The Permian-Triassic extinction event, considered to be the fastest extinction in our geologic past, played out over 60,000 years. We can already see that the unpredictable hydroclimate whiplash we have set in motion from our fire-catalyzed climate upheaval will eventually make any attempts at large-scale agriculture impossible to sustain. An accelerated water cycle is already locked into the world’s climate system and now irreversible.  A new study shows these wild swings between heavy precipitation and severe drought have increased substantially worldwide since the 1950s.

    Sea level rise, the loss of pollinators and the mutilation of the tree of life, expansion of agricultural pests and pathogens, and the degradation of soil, among other factors will also be at play, causing havoc with agriculture.

    Since 1990, global CO2 emissions have increased by more than 60% and they continue their inexorable rise with 2024 marking the highest rate of increase since record-keeping began in 1958, driven by record wildfires.

    Modern industrial civilization is entrapped in a Death Spiral characterized by denial, distrust, dogmatic thinking, flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one ‘solution’, and self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior. This has lead to a monumental gap between the elite and the masses, rise of authoritarianism, and rampant resource waste and depletion. We deny our way of life is unsustainable and carry on as if we are separate and superior to the environment that gave birth to us and which sustains us. We live and compete within a socioeconomic system which pits neighbor against neighbor and atomizes communities and families, dehumanizing individuals as consumers. Corporate media feeds us scripted narratives to manage and control the information we receive, thus creating an age of paranoia and distrust. Our political leaders are puppets of big-monied corporate interests which prioritize economic growth and profit over environmental and social concern. The fate of humanity rests in the hands of leaders who hide behind greenwashing and promise nothing more than delusional techno-fixes for growing existential threats. Are we not in the final stages of catabolic capitalism where society itself gets consumed and profit is extracted from scarcity, disaster, conflict, and crisis?

    The decline in global human population this century will not be a smooth bell curve, but a precipitous vertical drop. How could there be any other outcome when we have deluded ourselves into thinking that living in megacities of concrete and steel, driving 3,000 pound exoskeletons over asphalt roads, and eating steaks exported from Brazil are all part of a natural and sustainable way of life?!? The apocalyptic hellscapes we see in places like Gaza and Syria are coming to all of the civilized world one day and very soon.

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