Today’s post includes a recent sobering comment on overshoot reality by un-Denial regular Hideaway that I thought deserved more visibility, and a new essay on acceptance by B, who has recently emerged as one of the best writers about human overshoot.
The ideas of Hideaway and B complement some of the recent discussions here about acceptance and the nature of our species.
P.S. I did not receive permission from B to re-post his essay but I’m hoping that since un-Denial is not monetized he will not object, and I will of course remove the essay if B expresses concern.
By Hideaway: On Radical Reality
The human enterprise of modernity and 8.1+ billion humans is going down. Reduction in available energy is the trigger and there is nothing we can do to stop it, or make it less unpleasant, or save the macrofauna from extinction.
As we build more energy machines of any type, their output increases overall energy available, and used, providing this happens faster than the retirement of old energy producing machines. Over the last few decades we, as in humanity in it’s entirety, have increased fossil fuel use developing more, tearing up the environment more, while increasing the build of renewables.
On a world wide scale, we have not replaced any fossil fuel use, we have just increased all energy use with more fossil fuels being part of that increase, and renewables being part of the increase. At some point growing energy use must stop, unless we make the planet uninhabitable for all life, which means we stop anyway.
Because of our economic system, as soon as we stop growing energy production and use, the price of energy goes up, and we go into recession/depression. It becomes impossible to build ‘new’ stuff of any kind once energy use declines, unless we take the energy from other users, for our ‘new’ builds.
Building more renewables, batteries, EVs, etc., currently means using more fossil fuels to build it all. There is no realistic attempt to build it all with electricity from renewables, nor is that possible. If we diverted existing renewable energy production to, for example, a new mine, then that renewable energy, removed from a city, would have to be made up by increasing fossil fuel generated electricity for the city.
If we ‘ran’ the new mine from new renewables, then these have to be built first, meaning we need the mine for the minerals to build the renewables, or we take minerals from existing users, elsewhere. It’s all just more, more, more and none of the proponents of renewables, including major green organizations want to acknowledge it.
The circular economy can’t work as we cannot physically recycle everything, plus we would need to build all the recycling facilities. If we were to try and do this without increasing total energy use, where does the energy come from to build these new recycling facilities? Other energy users? For the last couple of centuries it’s always come from ‘growth’, especially in energy use. None of us, nor our parents or grandparents, have known a world where the amount of energy available to humanity does anything other than grow.
Because of losses of all materials due to entropy and dissipation into the environment, we will always need mining, of ever lower ore grades, meaning an increasing energy use for mining. It is simply not possible to maintain output from mines once we go to zero energy growth, unless the energy comes from other uses, and users.
Once energy production growth stops, the price of all energy rises, because we need energy production to go up just to maintain the system, as population grows, ore grades decline, etc. If energy production was to fall, the price becomes higher, making everything else cost more. We can see this on a micro scale every time an old coal power plant is closed. On average, the wholesale price of electricity goes up, until compensated for by some newer form of electricity production (the new source taking energy to build).
Visions for the future usually include extra energy efficiency for buildings, etc. but never, ever, include the energy cost of these energy efficiency gains. For example, a simple hand wave about using double glazed or triple glazed windows. To do this, on a worldwide scale, we would need to build a lot of new glass factories, and probably window manufacturers as well. It will take more energy to do this, just like everything else ‘new’.
The phrase ‘build new’ means more energy is required for construction and mining the minerals for the new or expanded factories. The Adaro coal power plant (new) and aluminium smelter (also new) in Indonesia are perfect examples of our predicament. The world needs more aluminium for ‘new’ solar PVs, EVs, wiring, etc. which means more energy use and environmental damage, regardless of whether we use fossil fuels, solar panels, or pumped hydro backup.
Civilization is a Ponzi scheme energy trap, we either grow energy and material use, or we stagnate, and then collapse. Following feedback loops, we see there is no way out of this predicament.
People often claim the future is difficult to predict, yet it is simple, obvious, and highly predictable for humanity as a whole. We will continue to use more energy, mine more minerals, and destroy more of the environment, until we can’t. The first real limit we will experience is oil production, and we may be there already.
Once oil production starts to fall with a vengeance as it must, say 2-3 million barrels/day initially, then accelerating to 4-5 million barrels/day, it will trigger a feedback loop of making natural gas and coal production more difficult as both are totally dependent upon diesel, thus reducing the production of both, or if we prioritize diesel for natural gas and coal production, then other consumers of diesel, like tractors, combines, trucks, trains, and ships, must use less.
Mining and agriculture will come under pressure, sending prices for all raw materials and food through the roof. World fertilizer use is currently above 500 million tonnes annually. A lot of energy is required to make and distribute fertilizer. World grain yields are strongly correlated to fertilizer use, so less energy means less fertilizer, which means less food, unless we prioritize energy for agriculture by taking energy from and harming some other part of our economy.
If we banned discretionary energy uses to keep essential energy uses going, while overall energy continues to decline, then large numbers of people will lose their jobs and experience poverty, further compounding the problems of scarcity and rising prices.
Money for investing into anything will dry up. If governments print money to help the economy, inflation will negate the effort. If governments increase taxes to fund more assistance, then more people and businesses will be made poorer.
The ability to build anything new quickly evaporates, people everywhere struggle between loss of employment, loss of affordable goods and services, increased taxation, and will be forced to increase the well-being of their immediate ‘group’ to the detriment of ‘others’. Crime rates go through the roof, the blame game increases, with some trying to dispossess others of their resources. This will occur for individuals, groups and countries. Crime and war will further accelerate the decline in energy production, and the production and shipment of goods in our global economy. One after the other, at an accelerating rate, countries will become failed states when the many feedback loops accelerate the fossil fuel decline. Likewise for solar, wind and nuclear.
We rapidly get to a point where our population of 8.1+ billion starts to decline, with starving people everywhere searching for their next meal, spreading from city to country areas, eating everything they can find, while burning everything to stay warm in colder areas during the search for food. Every animal found will eaten. Farming of any type, once the decline accelerates, will not happen, because too many people will be eating the seed, or the farmer. Cows, sheep, horses, chooks, pigs, deer, basically all large animals will succumb because of the millions or billions of guns in existence and starving nomadic people.
Eventually after decades of decline, humans will not be able to be hunter gatherers as we will have made extinct all of megafauna. Whoever is left will be gatherers of whatever food plants have self-seeded and grown wild. Even if we were able to get some type of agriculture going again, there would be no animals to pull plows, all old ‘machinery’ from decades prior would be metal junk, so food would remain a difficult task for humans, unless we found ways to farm rabbits and rats, without metal fencing. While we will use charcoal to melt metals found in scavenged cities, it will limited to producing a few useful tools, like harnesses to put on the slaves plowing the fields, or for keeping the slaves entrapped.
Once we go down the energy decline at an accelerating rate, nothing can stop complete collapse unless we can shrink population much faster than the energy decline, which itself may very well be pointless as we have created such a globalised economy of immense complexity, where fast population decline, has it’s own huge set of problems and feedback loops.
Our complex economy requires a large scale of human enterprise. Reduce the scale, and businesses will have less sales, making everything more expensive. Rapid population decline will mean many businesses won’t just reduce production, but will often stop altogether when the business goes bust.
Because of interdependencies of our complex products, a scarcity of one seemingly uncritical component will have far reaching effects on other critical products. Maintenance parts will become difficult to obtain, causing machinery to fail, in turn causing other machines to fail that depended on the failed machines. Think of a truck delivering parts required to fix trucks. The same applies to production line machines, processing lines at mines, or simple factories making furniture, let alone anything complicated. If we only reach population decline as energy declines the problem is still the same.
By B: On Radical Acceptance
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/on-radical-acceptance
So what is radical acceptance? For me, it means: accepting that no single technological civilization based on finite resources is sustainable. Neither in the bronze age, nor in the iron age; let alone in an era of industrial revolutions. None. Why? Because all spend their nest egg — be it fertile topsoil, forests or coal, lithium and copper — a million times faster than it can be replenished. Recycling and “sustainability” practices can only slow down the process somewhat… At least in theory, but rarely in practice. The “circular economy”, together with „renewables” are nothing but fairy tales we tell ourselves to scare off the wolfs at night. Sorry to be this blunt, but the decline of this techno-industrial civilization is inevitable, and is already well underway.
The only type of civilization (if you want to use that term), which proved to be more or less sustainable so far, was a basic hunter-gatherer society; complemented perhaps with some agroforestry, pottery and some low key metallurgy. Anything beyond that inevitably destroyed the soil and the very resource base supporting the entire edifice. With that said, I’m not suggesting that we should immediately go back to the caves and mud huts… That would be impossible for 4 billion of us, entirely supported by large scale agriculture based on artificial fertilizers and a range of pesticides. However, it is important to note, that this is the direction we are headed, with the only question being how fast we will get there and how many humans can be sustained via such a lifestyle.
And this is where acceptance comes into view. Once you understand (not just “know”) that burning through a finite amount of mineral reserves at an exponential pace leads to depletion and environmental degradation at the same time, you start to see how unsustainable any human civilization is. All that technology (in its narrowest technical sense) does is turning natural resources into products and services useful for us, at the cost of polluting the environment. Technology use is thus not only the root cause of our predicament, but it can only accelerate this process. More technology — more depletion — more pollution. Stocks drawn down, sinks filling up. Simple as that. Of course you can elaborate on this matter as long as you wish, conjuring up all sorts of “game changer” and “wonder” machines from fusion to vertical gardens, the verdict remains the same. It. Is. All. Unsustainable. Period.
There are no clean technologies, and without dense energy sources like fossil fuels there wont be any technology — at least not at the scale we see today.
Many people say: Oh this is so depressing! And I ask: why? Because your grand-grand children will have to work on a field and grow their own food? Or that you might not even have grand-grand children? I don’t mean that I have no human feelings. I have two children whom I love the most. I have a good (very good) life — supported entirely by this technological society. Sure, I would love to see this last forever, and that my kin would enjoy such a comfortable life, but I came to understand that this cannot last. Perhaps not even through my lifetime. I realize that I most probably will pass away from an otherwise totally treatable disease, just because the healthcare system will be in absolute shambles by the time I will need it the most. But then what? Such is life: some generations experience the ‘rising tide lift all boats’ period in a civilization’s lifecycle, while others have to live through its multi-decade (if not centuries) long decline.
I did feel envy, shame, and anxiety over that, but as the thoughts I’ve written about above have slowly sunk in, these bad feelings all went away. It all started look perfectly normal, and dare I say: natural. No one set out to design this modern iteration of a civilization with an idea to base it entirely on finite resources; so that it will crash and burn when those inputs start to run low, and the pollution released during their use start to wreck the climate and the ecosystem as a whole. No. It all seemed like just another good idea. Why not use coal, when all the woods were burnt? Why not turn to oil then, when the easily accessible part of our coal reserves started to run out? At the time — and at the scale of that time — it all made perfect sense. And as we got more efficient, and thus it all got cheaper, more people started to hop onboard… And why not? Who wouldn’t want to live a better life through our wondrous technologies? The great sociologist C. Wright Mills summed up this process the best, when writing about the role of fate in history:
Fate is shaping history when what happens to us was intended by no one and was the summary outcome of innumerable small decisions about other matters by innumerable people.
Scientifically speaking this civilization, just like the many others preceding it, is yet another self organizing complex adaptive system. It seeks out the most accessible energy source and sucks it dry, while increasing the overall entropy of the system. We as a species are obeying the laws of thermodynamics, and the rule set out in the maximum power principle. Just like galaxies, stars, a pack of wolves, fungi or yeast cells. There is nothing personal against humanity in this. We are just a bunch of apes, playing with fire.
Once I got this, I started to see this whole process, together with our written history of the past ten thousand years, as an offshoot of natural evolution. Something, which is rapidly reaching its culmination, only to be ended as a failed experiment. Or, as Ronald Wright put it brilliantly in his book A Short History of Progress:
Letting apes run the laboratory was fun for a while, but in the end a bad idea.
So, no. I’m not depressed at all. It was fun to see how far a species can go, but also reassuring that it was a one off experiment. Once this high tech idiocy is over, it will be impossible to start another industrial revolution anyway. There will be no more easy to mine, close to surface ores and minerals. Everything left behind by this rapacious society will remain buried beneath a thousand feet of rocks, and will be of such a low quality that it will not worth the effort. Lacking resources to maintain them, cities, roads, bridges will rust and crumble into the rising seas, while others will be replaced by deserts, or lush forests. The reset button has been pressed already, it just takes a couple of millennia for a reboot to happen.
Contradictory as it may sound: this is what actually gives me hope. Bereft of cheap oil, and an access to Earth’s abundant mineral reserves, future generations of humans will be unable to continue the ecocide. There will be no new lithium mines, nor toxic tailings or hazardous chemicals leaching into the groundwater. Our descendants will be forced to live a more sustainable, more eco-friendly life. There will be no other way: the ecocide will end. This also means, that there will be no “solution” to climate change, nor ecological collapse. They both will run their due course, and take care of reducing our numbers to acceptable levels. Again, don’t fret too much about it: barring a nuclear conflict, this process could last well into the next century, and beyond. The collapse of modernity will take much longer than any of us could imagine, and will certainly look nothing like what we see in the movies. And no, cutting your emissions will not help. At all. Live your life to its fullest. Indulge in this civilization, or retreat to a farm. It’s all up to you, and your values. This is what I mean under the term, radical acceptance.
We are a species of this Earth, and paraphrasing Tom Murphy, we either succeed with the rest of life on this planet or go down together. Nurturing hope based technutopian “solutions”, and trying to remain optimistic does not solve anything. This whole ordeal is unsustainable. What’s more, it was from the get go… And that which is unsustainable will not be sustained. And that is fine. We, as a species are part of a much bigger whole, the web of life, and returning to our proper place as foraging humanoids will serve and fit into that whole much better than any technutopian solution could.
Until next time,
B
un-Denial 
I stocked up on coffee, tea, grains, dried fruit, and sardines today.
Something’s gonna blow:
This analysis of Russia’s warning is very good.
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All this stocking up on food must be because of your denial gene Rob. What are you going to do with SHTF and your neighbors find out you have all this great stuff?
Fast Eddy has a new post up, The Utter Futility of Doomsday Prepping you should consider.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
Any comments?
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Doing something to prepare provides a sense of agency over things out of my control which improves my mental well-being. This is a good enough reason for prepping provided I do not waste money on things I will not use.
Prepping will of course not fix permanent scarcity or some other catastrophe like FE describes.
Prepping might sustain life during a temporary interruption to the availability of food, and it might make life more enjoyable when non-essential but highly valued goods like coffee become unavailable.
Prepping might also be a good use of limited savings if you anticipate inflation due to energy scarcity, even if food remains in the stores. I smile every time I see price increases on things I have in inventory.
Everyone should assess their local risks and do what makes sense for their circumstances.
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Yes, “prepping” gives one a certain sense of agency, but it gets me off my retired butt, and mostly, there are many scenarios where it will be of use. We still don’t know exactly how things will unwind, so why not do SOMETHING that may even contribute to a local “lifeboat community” should you be lucky enough to live where survival is possible.
We prep for food in a kind of three tiered way. Stored foods in the pantry and root cellar that would last quite a while, a large garden every year to lessen dependence on the market and replenish stores, and perennial food plants, that don’t need cultivation or replanting every year.
Think of it as a hobby with side benefits if nothing else.
A post about our root cellar from 9 years ago:
http://viridviews.blogspot.com/2015/10/a-tour-of-root-cellar.html
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Excellent rant today by Chris Martenson on the satanic behavior of our leaders around covid that still exists today.
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I think I may have planted a little too much all at once in my beds at the farm.
I’ve got 20m each of spinach, arugula, and radishes all ripe now that I’ve got to eat.
I can eat maybe 5cm of the 20m bed per day by myself. 🙂
Hopefully the farm will be able to sell some of the surplus.
My tomatoes are coming nicely with green fruit and I just planted basil next to the tomatoes.
Also planted a row of watermelons in the greenhouse.
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That’s great!
If you like, you may try lacto-fermenting the radishes.
Or give to your neighbours or just anybody or feed some animals or back to the soil…
There is never any waste.
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I fermented radishes once 10 years ago. I think they were ok but I don’t remember loving them.
I do love sauerkraut & kimchi and eat it almost every day.
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Red onions pickled in red wine vinegar, with a tp of sugar and salt – sooooo good. Keep it in the fridge
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Hi Rob,
I’m green with envy! Well done on bringing forth your harvest! Yes, 20m rows are a bit ambitious for one person to consume, but all it takes is a pair of rabbits to help you with that problem!
Succession planting is the idea that you stagger your sowing of each type of crop every few weeks or so until the end of the growing season. So for instance, you can plant out 5 metres worth of seed at a time and they will hopefully mature in sequence. This is useful not only to provide a continuous harvest of the quantity you need, but it also is a way to avoid pests and diseases that might attack a whole monocultured mass planting, you have a back-up planting so it may not get infested because of the different timing of the insect or fungal cycle. Many greens (like the Asian greens you already discovered) bolt early due to the increasing day lengths or temperatures, so to stagger planting them throughout the whole growing season will find that sweet spot in their cycle that encourages more leafing before flowering. There’s all kinds of ways to tweak and manipulate, that’s all part of the art of agriculture.
I must admit my go to method of planting now is just letting things go to seed and self sow where they will and come up when they do, these plants always are the healthiest. It’s not an orderly rowed garden at all, with plants in all stages of growth and decay, but as long as I can find them and know they are edible, it is the easiest way I’ve found to grow food, more like foraging. You probably need more space to let different plants find their niche and thrive, and some will do better than others and eventually crowd them out so you may have to introduce more “motherplants” here and there. It’s all been a learning experience and I am happy to be a kindergartener (literally, child-garden) forever when it comes to communing with the earth and green things.
Happy Spring and Summer gardening all you in the Up Above!
Namaste.
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Sarah Connor explains why voluntary degrowth will never happen.
She does not discuss the most important question.
Which scenario results in the least total suffering?
https://www.collapse2050.com/trapped-by-economic-growth/
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She’s right that degrowth will never happen voluntarily but the reason is that we’re a species. That explains everything.
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“Humans are a species which explains everything”.
Here’s another statement that is probably also true and equally unhelpful:
“All complex life is constructed from eukaryotic cells.”
Now let’s rewrite both statements into something useful:
“Multicellular life requires more energy per gene to enable its complex morphology, and given that all life is chemiosmotic, the only way to achieve this is by increasing the ratio of membrane surface area per volume of cell, and on this planet the only solution discovered by evolution was to create a eukaryotic cell consisting of an archaea cell enclosing multiple bacteria cells which later evolved into mitochondria.
This statement leads to many fruitful lines of inquiry:
– why is more energy required for complexity?
– is there a different way to increase cell energy?
– was evolution of the eukaryote probable or improbable?
– why did it take 2 billion years for the eukarotic cell to emerge?
– how common will complex life be in the universe?
We are a species becomes:
“A dominant behavior of all life is the maximum power princple (MPP), because life at its core is chemical replicators competing for finite energy and material, and free will does not exist because consciousness is constructed from deterministic physical processes, therefore it is not possible for intelligence to override the drive for economic growth.
Now we can discuss interesting things like:
– what mechanism does evolution use to prevent intelligence from overriding MPP?
– what mechanism in the brain enables polymaths to understand everything except overshoot?
– why do we deny other unpleasant things that do not affect MPP?
– is it true in an everyday practical sense that free will does not exist?
– why are some people able to choose to eat less and consume less when this violates both MPP and no free will?
– if there is no free will, why do we punish people that break the law?
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No solution was discovered by evolution. Evolution isn’t a sentient being, it’s a name for what happens to life-forms. It doesn’t use any mechanisms, though the name is given for random mutations filtered by natural selection.
Intelligence is a name given by humans for some aspect of brain function. There are no units of measurement, though there are some tests which attempt to assign a number to it. It seems to be orthogonal to what we might call cleverness and to what we might call common sense. Consequently, it has nothing to do with how we might behave collectively or individually.
I don’t think anything can override MPP since it is part of what an organism is. Note that some organisms appear to have a weak adherence to MPP. Their genes would have a disadvantage compared to other organisms which adhere strongly to that principle. This is part of evolution. The fact that there are some weak adherents doesn’t mean the principle doesn’t apply.
Society punishes people who break the law because, a) it applies some kind of order to society, which would otherwise crumble, b) almost everyone believes that free-will does exist.
If you don’t think that “humans are a species” is useful, feel free to delete my comment.
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What mechanism prevents a brain capable of flying to the moon from understanding overshoot? Why does that brain also believe in god? Why does no other species have gods or fly to the moon?
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I’m not sure what the point of the questions is but being capable of understanding something doesn’t mean that the understanding can alter our species behaviour. Obviously, no other species has developed societies that can develop the technology to fly to the moon, primarily because they haven’t evolved abilities necessary for those things. I have no idea whether other species believe in gods but I don’t think it would alter their behaviour either.
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Hey Mike. I just read and liked your latest article from 5/28. I have to admit, your easier way of looking at things is very tempting. To just throw away this insane complexity (denial) and chalk it all up to this is how every species behaves (consume resources till they are gone with no ability to foresee and prevent the consequences from this consumption).
But why have some of us have been able to break through and see the bigger picture. Rob’s go-to line for this is “we have defective denial genes”. And that makes sense to me. What is your line to explain this phenomenon?
And I just saw this comment from Sarah Connor on her site. “It’s a shame because, unlike other animals, we have the foresight to understand the consequences of our unsustainable expansion and consumption. Yet, we still fail to act.”
MORT/denial tells me why “we still fail to act”.
But what tells me why we still fail to act in your line of thinking? And you cant say because humans are a species. I need more than that.
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Dammit!!! I hate when that happens. Mike, please disregard my reply. Rob’s is way better.
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Chris, although some of us have apparently broken through, I’m not sure it alters our behaviour much. If everyone lived as us, the planet’s ecosystems would still be deteriorating. For those of us who can still reproduce but plan not to, those genes would die out.
Sarah Connor’s comment illustrates it perfectly. We can understand what we’re doing but still fail to act. Through scientific endeavour, we’ve learned a lot about the universe but can’t override our innate species behaviour. So, yes, there is implicit denial but it’s a feature of being a species, no matter what mutations members of that species may have. Organisms live for today, not for tomorrow. I’ve explained this in other posts.
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Damn you! 😊 Now you got me feeling like Captain Mal from Firefly.
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It seems to me, different organisms consider different time-frames. Aren’t human groups able to optimize at the level of the year, and maybe even a bit more? (I mean taking winter into account, storing food, observing cyclical patterns, parenting, etc…)
Also, maybe, those with slightly sub-optimal strategies, are just a way for the group to hedge its bets. Because, sometimes, radically different circumstances occur and then different strategies will be more successful/help avoid total wipe-out.
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The future is unknowable, either by individual organisms or by nature. The only time that actually exists is now (pending some breakthrough in quantum tunneling) so that is what evolution works on.
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It’s true that the future is unknowable.
However, even if it is so, some of us try to spot patterns, build models to make decisions. So it seems to me, we kind of (try to) balance the imagined future with the present, hedge our bets. In other words some organisms live today in part in anticipation of some tomorrow.
So I don’t understand what you meant by “organisms live for today, not for tomorrow”. There is something I am missing. Would you care to elaborate for me?
Thank you.
(I agree with your root argument that we are not and never be able to entirely control our destiny/take into account the full consequences of any actions. Nor should we burden ourselves with that ideal. To me, it seems even more fundamental than “we, being a species”)
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I’m really talking in terms of the physical drivers of life. Genes. They have no concern for the past or the future. They simply endow certain attributes that help or hinder the organism that is built from them to live in the here and now. Here and now is all that exists.
Of course, some people, perhaps all people, try to figure out what the future may hold and plan for that. Some will be right, some will be wrong. But if a characteristic endowed by a gene doesn’t offer a benefit in the here and now, it is no more likely to be propagated that any other gene and less likely to be propagated that a gene which provides an advantage for living in the here and now.
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Thank you. It makes sense.
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Art Berman’s been studying Hideaway.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/its-too-late-for-renewables/
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Hideaway…
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-may28-2024/#comment-776250
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https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/us-lags-the-world-in-recognizing
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Dear Rob,
I hope thou are feeling well.
The website is outright monstrously unappealing, however it seems the Japanese rally has some merit of happening.
Bizarre claims from the site which did the “fact checking.”
https://thepeoplesvoice.tv/global-warming-is-a-hoax-bombshell-new-study-in-nature-reveals-antarctic-ice-is-expanding/#disqus_thread
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Hi ABC, extra ice accumulating on interior Antarctica does not mean climate warming is a hoax. In fact I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t more ice accumulating in the Antarctic interior.
As temperatures warm, the air can hold more water vapor. Going from an average temperate of -50 to -40 is a warming, and the air over interior Antarctica can hold and bring in more water vapor, which it drops as snow. Being so cold, even at -40 being warmer than -50, the snow compacts to ice and builds over time..
More ice build up in very cold areas of Antarctica is just more proof the climate is warming.
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Dear Hideaway,
I appreciate thine reply.
Well said and with exceptional clarity.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Trafigura-AI-Boom-Could-Spark-a-Copper-Shortage.html
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Save those pre-1982 U.S. 1c coins. They’re 95% copper, and are worth almost 3c based on the copper value. There’s still plenty in circulation. (Some 1982 cents are 95% copper — the U.S. Mint switched in mid-1982 to 97.5% zinc pennies, because of the raw-materials cost of producing them)
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Five hours on the tractor today listening to podcasts. You can skip Nate Hagen’s latest with the master of mental masturbation, Schmachtenberger. I couldn’t take more than 10 minutes before ejecting.
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Alright. Enough is enough. Those are fighting words. 😊 Why is Schmachtenberger so disliked on this site? What am I missing here?
If you liked the Vanessa Andreotti interview from last week, you will like this one. (but I’ve only watched about 45min so far)
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For me, I don’t like that it takes him 1000 words to express a 10 word idea, and I do not like that he thinks he’s so brilliant and yet he discusses everything except what matters: population reduction.
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Fair enough Rob. I would not doubt that he is able to woo me in because I already think he is intimidatingly intelligent. I get the same genius vibes from him that I get in interviews with John Lennon and Frank Black. So I admit I may be starstruck with Daniel.
I will have to confer with my spiritual advisor Charles (like it or not charles… its true 😊). If he says he does not like the Schmach then I will contemplate it more seriously.
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We all have different tastes. Go with whatever works for you. I’m a depresssing person to be around. Much better to listen to someone like Charles.
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Gail Zawacki used to love poetry. It made her very happy.
I hate poetry. If someone’s got something important to say, I want it in the minimum number of words with maximum clarity. Poets are the opposite. They try to make you think they’re saying something important by using a lot of obtuse words. Like the master of obsfucation, Shakespeare.
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You are very truthful and consistent. When I was going through my comment history that is one of the main things that stood out the most. Your replies are always brief and to the point.
Thats why you and Hideaway make such a perfect team together. The two of you are one big goldmine. He’s gonna provide gold but its more drawn out and time consuming. You’re gonna provide gold, but in short quick bursts.
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Thanks kindly.
If I have any gold it was not discovered by me. My little niche is monitoring a lot of aware smart people doing original thinking and extracting and distilling their best ideas into a short clear story.
People like Varki, Hideaway, Tverberg, Murphy, Lane, Korowitzc, etc. do original thinking.
My job is to monitor them.
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Spiritual advisor. Ah ah ah. That was unexpected.
Personnally, I can’t listen to Schmachtenberger more than 60 seconds. I find him boring, full of himself and empty. That being said, my opinion doesn’t matter. If you enjoy listening to him, keep doing so. And even that doesn’t matter, if you feel better following somebody else’s tastes for whatever reason, please do so. There is no wrong way of being.
I will now fulfill my role of spiritual adviser: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjw7W_KYCyk
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As with any other guru, I can assure you that you will get no-thing from me. (As Truth can neither be possessed nor given, only received) And that the price will turn out to be quite high (in the form of money, but most importantly with some traumatic experience). But that’s exactly what you are looking for. So it’s all worth it.
Ah, and never forget: “it is more blessed to give than to receive.”
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Oh no!!! My spiritual advisor has lost his mind. I might have to perform an exorcism on Charles until he likes the Schmach. 😊
I loved the entire three-hour interview. But check out the clip below at the 23:44 – 25:25 mark. You haters might enjoy this. They are trying to explain what MPP is. I’m not saying they don’t understand it, just saying they don’t sound like they understand it… but I forgive them because if you put a camera on me and told me to explain MORT, it would be so ugly to the point where the audience would not buy anything else that I had to say.
And Charles, I just read your conversation with Rob on the older thread. That was a great breakdown of your philosophy. You are obviously a fan of Krishnamurti (I love the conversations with him and David Bohm).
Outside of Michael Dowd the only other hardcore “religious” people I have paid attention to is Joseph Campbell and Richard Rohr (in a weird way I should probably include Charles Eisenstein as well). Just curious if you know these names and what you think of them. Thanks.
Daniel Schmachtenberger: “A Vision for Betterment” | The Great Simplification 126 – YouTube
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🙂
Sorry to disappoint you 🙂
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I am also a fan of Swami Prajnanpad (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTpVtVbWKbI) and Ramesh Balsekar (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0OmAWKmkGk)
To me, they all point in the same direction.
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Thanks for the feedback on my peeps.
Those two from you sound very interesting.
What direction? I want to bypass all this hard work and just end up at the final destination of wisdom. I’m an Empire Baby. Can’t I just buy a FastPass ticket and skip the line? 😊
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Yeah sure: you are already That (which you are looking for).
All know that the drop merges into the ocean, but few know that the ocean merges into the drop.
Not 2. (which does not necessarily imply 1)
You are welcome. Ah ah ah.
Seriously: it could do the trick for you (like in Gutei’s one finger story https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juzhi_Yizhi). There is no reason it couldn’t. No hard work necessary. That’s the point. It’s already all there. (before the words)
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Nope, it did not do the trick 😊, but I love that Gutei cut the boys finger off. And any talk about oceans and drops makes me automatically go here:
“And for What, For What. No matter what you do it will never amount to anything more than a single drop in a limitless ocean. What is an ocean but a multitude of drops.” – David Mitchell, Cloud Atlas
My favorite quote from Cloud Atlas – What is an ocean but a multitude of drops – David Mitchell (youtube.com)
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I just listened to a random Richard Rohr speech which came out of youtube search. It was very entertaining and relaxing. If you have any particular speech or text to recommend…
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Here are my favorites. The Second Half of Life is the best one.
Fr Richard Rohr – The “First Half of Life” (youtube.com)
Fr. Richard Rohr – The “Second Half of Life” (youtube.com)
Becoming Stillness – Richard Rohr (youtube.com)
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Thank you.
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Youre welcome. And just for the hell of it, here is a Joseph Campbell conversation I think you will enjoy. Its a 6-part series about the power of myth.
Joseph Campbell and the Power of Myth | Ep. 1: ‘The Hero’s Adventure’ (youtube.com)
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Replying here because we have reached the maximum depth.
Thank you for the Joseph Campbell link. I will listen to it when I get more time.
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YW. And I just noticed that I linked you the wrong episode. Start with Ep 2. It will give you a better sense of whether you want to keep exploring Campbell or not.
Joseph Campbell and the Power of Myth | Ep. 2: ‘The Message of the Myth’ (youtube.com)
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Dear Rob,
I hope you are feeling well.
I understand thine perspective, laconic responses suffice in most matters.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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I actually suspect Schmachtenberger is a scam artist. Once for fun I went all the way back through his public Facebook profile. It was over 10 years of him just sharing daily content of whatever ‘new age environmental’ stuff was going viral, absolutely nothing of substance. Plus some very odd sexual stuff all the way back. He makes a lot of money as an internet personality- he is an influencer, that’s it.
There is definitely something very off about him. He has all the attributes of a great cult leader: charismatic, pretty eyes, ability to talk gibberish for hours, and gives off mega creepy vibes to mentally stable females.
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Thanks for the inside scoop monk. Maybe you’re right.
Funny how easy it is to be a bullshit con artist these days. With everything getting worse by the day, there are eight billion of us waiting to be swooped off our feet and “saved”.
And you are so right about the cult leader vibe he gives off. 😊
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India hits New Record Power Demand Again
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Here is an intelligent argument that nuclear war is not as close and some of us here worry.
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All I can say is I hope he is right and that Putin is sane enough to counter the stupidity in the U.S. leadership and Europe. Many others, Mearsheimer, Sacks, Ritter, C. Watson and your favorite Canadian Prepper think a nuclear war is likely (perhaps inevitable?). Is Doctotow in denial? I hope not.
AJ
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Fantastic must watch interview with physicist Theodore Postol on geopolitics and the incompetence and ignorance of our western leaders.
This issue has been on my mind a lot lately with covid and now WWIII.
I remember in 1980 observing all the people in university that lacked intelligence in bullshit programs and wondering what they would do for a living?
The mystery has been solved. They lacked any useful skills for a job in the private sector so they are now running our governments.
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Why Biden’s New Bill Is So Terrifying
Note: The video is age-restricted and can only be seen on Youtube, not because it contains graphic content, but it contains content critical of Israel that ran afoul of the Youtube algorithm.
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I normally do not sign-in to see “restricted” content on Yahoo. I viscerally detest having to reveal myself to Google (YouTube) etc.
After reading some of the comments, I resolved to sign-in and watch the video. Not satisfied with entering the user ID and password, Google made me do a captcha and then also receive a 6 digit access code on my phone. Then I had to click a special acknowledgment button on the video to actually get the thing to play.
FUCK GOOGLE AND THE FUCKING NAZIS THAT WORK THERE.
The video was worth watching.
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I extract what revenge I can on Google by:
1) running the uBlock Origin ad blocker on YouTube
2) turning off the MANY tracking options in the Google account settings
3) periodically wiping my entire history with Google just to be sure
4) never using the Chrome browser
5) using DuckDuckGo instead of Google for searches
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Good to know I am doing something right. I’ve had uBlock Origin for years. Never get one single commercial on youtube. (or pretty much anywhere else).
A friend of mine (much more teki than me) did not believe me about no ads on yt. He had to come over and see it for himself. He thinks I got lucky with some old version of it (I never do updates). Because he has uBlock, but still gets plenty of ads.
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YouTube has been fighting back. Every month or so they slow down video loading if I have my ad blocker active but then they give up after a couple days.
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I love it. Keep outsmarting those a-holes.
Here is a head scratcher though. Like I said, zero ads on yt. But when I run an HDMI cable from cpu to TV, then I get loads of commercials from yt on the TV. I always end up going back to the cpu because I cant stand it. (nothing worse than getting into a nice long program about native americans and sustainable ways… and then some loud toyota ad pops up talking about how sustainable their trucks are. Talk about a mood killer)
p.s. That video is good. Thanks Stellar.
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Running YouTube via HDMI should not change ad blocking.
My guess is you are actually running the YouTube app on your smart TV and controlling it with YouTube on your PC. You want to simply use your TV as a monitor and not use the TV YouTube app.
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I’m using FireFox with uBlockOrigin on Ubuntu, Android and Windows 10 (home and Pro) – mostly no adverts across the board.
I almost never sign-in, so no history to clear. Firefox clears Cookies, Cache and History on closing. Also use DuckDuckGo, StartPage, etc.
A VPN would be next.
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I don’t use a VPN because it’s not allowed with private torrent trackers.
I use Edge and Firefox depending on the privacy I want.
I also have the Tor Browser installed and I keep it up to date for my occasional and always failed attempts to find Ivermectin, antibiotics, morphine, and other drugs on the dark web for my preps. Could use some help here from someone who really knows what they’re doing.
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Awesome that you use the (Firefox?) TOR browser. You inspired me to install Apache2 on Ubuntu and add a hidden service :
http://dytv7k3gzpfdxedaw7zs6mrsgbjuddxdwxuv663lntvq6yj6sfokeuqd.onion/
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I use a VPN, firefox and thunderbird on win11, adblocker ultimate, ublock, privacy badger and I get zero ads on anything. No issues with torrents but I don’t go to private trackers. YT does occasionally slow down but I just reload and prob solved.
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Mike’s “humans are a species” made me think about tweaking the story. If you are on the fence about MORT (I’m about 75% in support of, but I’m 100% down with denial) then I have a quick easy sell for you that worked for me: On a universal scale his theory is by far the gloomiest thing I have ever heard. And this coming from me who always accuses un-Denial of being nihilistic and killing off my last bits of hopium. At least MORT has a sense of “this can be cracked”. I still dream of some species out there in the universe getting it right. But Mike’s vision has no hope whatsoever.
But either way, its not worth dwelling on. Because they both tell the story pretty much the same way. I’ll try to demonstrate what I mean. Here is a comment from the Nate/Schmach interview. It might as well have been written by me prior to finding un-Denial. Its in regard to why the “good” will always be defeated by the “evil”:
This was pretty much the case for a couple hundred thousand years. The other tribes DID notice the aberrant tribe, and they banded together to drop the agent tribe from dominating. We know this is true, because it took the entirety of human history (up until 10k years ago) for a dominant culture to “win.” They were able to defeat the other tribes because this new culture grew its own food, and so it was able to field more combatants with access to constant food supplies. This culture acted in the same pattern as a cancer cell in the body, and the immune system didn’t shut it down in time. Now the whole world is cultural descendants of the dominator tribe.
Boy, I still love that Quinn way of selling our story. Impossible to not give you some hope that humans can live the “right” way. But I don’t see it like this anymore. Rob’s quote here sums up both MORT and “humans are a species” for me:
For the last 10,000 years we broke through normal resource constraints with agriculture (bigger share of solar energy) and fossil energy (ancient solar energy) and became a destructive unsustainable species, that is smart enough to know better, but denies what it is doing.
When abundance of energy enters the picture, it’s over. I think it’s that simple too. And maybe we were able to live “right” (with wisdom and all that) when our species was down in the 1.5 EROEI range (along with most other species). But as soon as it gets substantially more than that, it is game over. Every species will be guilty of consuming this abundance of energy until they collapse from overshoot. There is no way out of it. And it’s impossible to reverse it mid-flight (even with mass amounts of wisdom).
I pray there is something watching us all as if we are just one in a gazillion experiments. And there is some all-universe Olympic type event waiting for the top twenty species who put together the puzzle best. You gotta figure un-Denial would be there (yes, including you Mike). And we have to battle it out and finish the puzzle against some very different looking species who are similar to us with their knowledge & understanding of their predicament (and the rest of the universe). The top three medal winners get to save their species and planet and actually start some deep meaningful space exploration with magic unlimited no pollution energy. The losers (and the rest of life) get to die from horrendous overshoot.
Ooh. That sounds like a good movie. Or at least a half hour twilight zone episode. (and dont worry Rob, you’ll get top billing as our “Captain Kirk” type character) 😊
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“Humans are a species” is not gloomy, it is empty and does not convey enough information to spark a debate other than to reply “of course, humans by definition are a species”.
Which is why I attempted to reword it into what I think it is trying to say: “MPP is a dominant behavior and there is no free will”. This can be debated, and can be compared with MORT to determine which best explains the evidence.
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Unfortunately, hope doesn’t come into reality. Reality is what it is. Hope would be nice but it’s irrelevant to reality.
Even this tribe or that tribe doesn’t come into it, long term. Evolution acts on the individual’s progeny, not the species. If the mutated gene gives an advantage, then the genes of that individual will propagate through the species or begins a new species (in combination, obviously).
If MORT is correct, there is nothing to be done. If the appearance of MORT emanates from simply being a species, there is nothing to be done. It’s just an academic argument, really. If denial provides a way of rationalising some actions, then denial will happen. Personally, I don’t think this arises from a denial mutation but it doesn’t really matter either way because species will continue to do what species do, regardless what some members of one of those species thinks.
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So hard to sift signal from noise these days but Europe and Canada central banks just cut the interest rate despite my eyes seeing no decline in food prices.
This might be an important signal and a reminder that central banks don’t really care about cost of living inflation, they care that their product, money (which is mostly credit), constantly inflates, because if it deflates we collapse.
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Hideaway:
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-5-2024/#comment-776524
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Dear Hideaway,
I hope thou are feeling well.
I present to thee another humble wish of inquiry, with no expectations attached.
If plausible, I would immensely appreciate thine calculated perspective alongside with some numbers and information regarding the EROI, cost-effectiveness etc. on the Finnish nuclear power plant of Olkiluoto 3.
Perhaps this might even be to thine interest as a “newly constructed” power plant.
– An ordeal brimming with erratic events.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Hi ABC,
I need to know all the numbers in regard to the building operating and maintenance of the nuclear power plant over it’s lifetime of operation. On others I’ve used ‘expected’ lifetime and costs whenever I can find them, all in $US…
If you have such numbers I’d be most great full.
I’ve tended to use industries own estimations of their own costs, which always seem to show that their own power generation is best, yet still find none are close to what we built the system with. As the entire system needs to be replaced over time, due to entropy, then if it’s more expensive relative to current energy costs than what we built it with, then there has to be less energy production in the future, relative to the past, all while the energy costs of gaining the resources needed to build replacements are going up.
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Dear Hideaway,
I hope thou are feeling well.
I appreciate thine quick response, I also apologise for my passivity regarding this matter.
Without spending countless amounts of energy to investigate the technicalities of the plant, due to utter lack of expertise, I can only hope these numbers will be of any value.
Building cost:
11 billion €
Production capacity:
1600mw
MWh price:
78€
Operational cost:
23€ / MWh
2.3C / KWh
Service life:
60 years
Source:
https://jonasnoeland.substack.com/p/rystad-energy-spreads-misinformation
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Hi ABC, just the LCOE price of 78 Euros or around $US84/Mwh tells us all we need to know in a world we built based upon cheap energy like the Saudi’s are still producing a lot at $US2.50/Mwh for refined oil products ($US1.70/Mwh for crude).
The world current wholesale average price of ‘energy’ for the last decade has been around $US40/Mwh.
If the production cost of energy is $2.50/Mwh, there is plenty of profit, being a metaphor for energy, for all other uses. If the cost of energy is $US84/Mwh then it is sucking energy and resources from the rest of civilization as a whole, that is paying $US40 on average to build and maintain everything.
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To everyone,
I wish to bring forth the proposal previously suggested by our dear Gaia.
– A live meeting via the world wide web.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Pretty good essay on how amazing brains are and how stupid we are for building AI’s.
https://www.rintrah.nl/a-universe-fine-tuned-for-biological-intelligence/
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https://indi.ca/unique-american-empire/
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I think this group of intellectuals (John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris, Glenn Diesen) does by far the best monthly analysis of geopolitics.
As I listen to their analysis I try to translate in my mind what they would say if they were overshoot aware.
I think their pessimism would become apocalyptic.
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Hello everyone. There is a good teacher/student thing going on between Rob and anonymous on the older comments (Keep at it anonymous. I’ve been playing along too.)
Here was my 1st attempt to capture the essence of MORT theory in one sentence: The super rare mutations of eToM (super brain power) and MORT (ability to deny the scary stuff) miraculously evolved at the same time in one species (a once in a trillion-year event), which has allowed that species to dominate and eventually destroy their planet. (kind of similar to what anonymous said)
After Rob hilariously said “wrong”, I then went into my normal hissy fit mood and changed my answer to: “who gives a shit”… but then after I calmed down and went with his instructions…. I came to the conclusion that my first answer was correct, so I am leaving it alone for now until their conversation progresses.
I had read his short version of MORT before which is excellent, but somehow I missed the comments (note to self: always check the comments for this site, there is usually gold). Poor Rob. He has been doing this same cycle of what he’s doing right now with anonymous (and me) for what must seem like an eternity. Easy for me to forget that, when I am nagging him over some aspect of MORT that I dont understand or like.
The link below is a great conversation (makes my top ten list for sure) with Rob and Anonymous in a similar teacher/student battle. Hopefully not the same anonymous as above. Can you imagine? (Haha – rob is stuck in purgatory groundhog day saying the same damn shit to the same damn person every few months. I love it!)
Hey Rob, do you have a favorite era (and audience) of un-Denial? When was it the most fun for you? Besides nowadays, of course 😊
Theory (short) – un-Denial
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Yes, as I understand it, there were two evolved traits that occurred together. One was, as you say, and extended theory of mind. This allowed those who evolved it, an ability to understand the minds of others (realising that they had the same minds) and to understand that they, too, understood your mind. Apparently, this would have allowed unlimited social development except that it also inevitably led to a realisation that we are mortal and will die. According to Varki, this realisation must have had a maladaptive consequence of prioritising survival above reproduction and so would stop the ETOM genes from propagating through the species. However, at some point, the mutation which conferred EToM happened coincidentally with a mutation which somehow prompted a denial of death. This double mutation gave those who had them an advantage over others and so the mutated gene spread through the population.
It could be true though I’m not convinced a mutation can have such an influence on thinking and beliefs. I’m also not convinced that an extended theory of mind, without the denial mutation, must inevitably lead to an obsession with avoiding death. I can see how it could also lead to an increase in the desire to reproduce. There are many possible consequences.
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Hideaway had a double shot of caffeine today…
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-5-2024/#comment-776608
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How The Russia-Ukraine War Will End
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An Idea for the next post on un-denial. How (to try) to remain in good mental health while being aware of all of these issues?
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Good idea. How about a compilation essay with a section from anyone here who would like to contribute?
I’ve explained my techniques in the past and can dig up and refine those thoughts.
I’ve got a contribution already from Charles above.
Paqnation, you’ve already sent me some thoughts on your personal journey. I sent you an email.
Gaia has an excellent comment above I can use. She’s a little busy right now but might send an elaboration. If not, I can use what she’s already written.
Hideaway, I sent you an email.
How about ABC, AJ, Hamish, Monk, nikoB, and anyone else I missed?
This is a compilation so no need for lengthy explanations. A few paragraphs getting to the point of what works for you is all that’s required. But of course you’re welcome to go long if if you wish.
You can email me your contribution at robmielcarski@gmail.com.
Let’s set June 11 as the deadline after which I’ll assume you won’t contribute unless you send me a message asking for an extension.
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Dear Rob,
thine request has been completed.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Sent you something Rob.
Let me know here if you didn’t get it
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I’m assembling the essay. Are you planning to contribute?
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I personally struggle to remain sane knowing everything I know about energy collapse and overshoot.
I understand why it is advantageous to have working denial genes.
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That might be the most honest thing I have seen all month. Thanks for that Stellar. I’m right there with you.
p.s. This better be real, and not just you being lazy or unconfident about writing for the guest essay. 😊
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Peak Oil Barrel these days in nothing more than a live experiment demonstrating the validity of Dr. Ajit Varki’s MORT theory.
Note that “MPP + no free will” does not explain what we observe here.
Remember, this is a collection of intelligent, well educated, energy aware experts.
Hideaway:
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-5-2024/#comment-776619
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It validates only the existence of denial, not a particular theory or hypothesis that might explain that denial.
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https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-june-5-2024/#comment-776672
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Some smart people with integrity are claiming we won a big battle with the WHO. I’m less confident. This excellent essay today by Endurance argues they’ll be back.
My next door neighbor can drop dead from the “bird flu” and I won’t inject mRNA.
The morons without integrity can go f**k themselves.
https://endurancea71.substack.com/p/the-borgs-smoke-and-mirrors
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More MORT on steroids.
A brilliant energy aware physicist explains that bitcoin mining can be good for the environment.
I left the following comment:
All “renewable” energy requires fossil energy to be built and maintained. Therefore:
“The best solution to climate change is to burn all of our remaining fossil energy as fast as possible mining Bitcoin because it’s a totally pointless activity that does not lead to growth. Then maybe the planet has a prayer.” — Dr. Tim Garrett
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Jeffrey Sachs and Tucker Carlson in what my imperfect memory says in the best ever discussion on US foreign policy incompetence, destructive consequences, and who’s actually driving the bus.
I like that they spend a lot of time marveling at how nothing makes sense, and trying to guess motives.
I’d love to know if awareness of overshoot and impending resource scarcity is behind what appears on the surface as incompetence.
For example, I’m pretty sure the Iraq war was driven by Cheney’s awareness of peak oil and the fact that fracking was not yet a thing.
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Also, Sachs presents the best ever summary of the evidence that covid was a lab leak funded and covered up by Fauci, the same Fauci responsible for coercing billions of mRNA transfections that have increased rather than decreased excess deaths.
Starts at 2:01:45.
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Correct me if I am mistaken . . . didn’t Sacks say that initially he believed that Covid came from nature due to all the “Science” journals publishing that. He now believes they are (science journals) corrupt and that it came from a lab and that the U.S. did most of the work in the U.S. then shipped it to China to do some testing and they accidentally let it lose. He said he was wrong initially. . . NO ONE of the perpetrators/enablers says that!
AJ
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Publicly correcting a mistake is for me the ultimate test of integrity. Everyone makes mistakes. Only good people learn and correct.
There are universities in the US that still require students to transfect themselves with mRNA!
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Dr. Tom Murphy does the math and proves that another one of our important institutions is incompetent.
Can anyone point to any institution today that is competent?
My takeaway, prep for a gong show.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/06/whiff-after-whiff/
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Matt Orfalea is a good satirist. He released a rap today.
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LOL. I love it. (and I despise rap)
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Excess deaths are global and everywhere mRNA transfections were coerced (2 min video).
https://x.com/FreedomPodcast1/status/1784343581819289629
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Last week Hideaway mentioned that over 500 nuclear blasts have gone off in our atmosphere. Sounded way too high, so I did some fact checking 😊. He was right, of course. Couple of things I thought were interesting. There’s been over 2,000 total explosions (US and Soviet Union combine for 1,750). Only a couple underwater, 500 aboveground and 1,500 underground. Since 1998 only one country is guilty. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea six times between 2006-2017
A few years back, I was into Dr Steven Greer hardcore (he’s the alien guy). My favorite idea of his was how alien abductions and all the stereotypes do not begin showing up until humans start testing nukes. His theory says the blast is so powerful that it ripples into other dimensions and up until then there was no reason for “others” to be looking at our planet. Greer sells it pretty good too.
Another thing he does well is tie it all back to elites (the 1500) and how they won’t allow their generational wealth to be altered by the life changing free energy that we have known about for 100 years now. (from Nikola Tesla, from aliens, and all those stories that sound something like “a guy invents water for gasoline and is mysteriously killed the next week, and all research destroyed”).
That’s where some of my raging hatred for the white billionaires comes from. It eventually gets old though. And Greer has too many “bullshit” moments for me to forgive. But when you are lost and confused and you dont understand energy, it’s very easy to get caught up in his theories.
I would still watch a new documentary from him no problem. (those pre-overshoot times were kind of fun trying to “figure it all out”)
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Dr. Philip McMillan analyzes the first death attributed to bird flu and concludes it is more likely a death from covid as predicted by Geert Vanden Bossche, however it is impossible to know for sure because, as usual, our idiot/unethical health care leaders do not provide enough easy to collect data to determine what actually happened.
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Interesting interview with Peter Brannen comparing geologic mass extinctions with human impacts.
Nate Hagens also interviewed Brannen a while ago and it also was very good.
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This was a great talk. For anyone who didn’t listen to Nate talking to Peter in a previous podcast of Nate’s, then this is a must listen. Peter seems to be writing a new book that uses some of Nick Lane’s ideas about the origin of life and the importance of CO2/O2 in our planet. Also he seemed to be working his way to MPP and the entropy path that all animals (life) and the universe are following. I suspect he is becoming a doomer?
AJ
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Ya, I liked this a lot. Favorite moment was at 46-49min when he breaks down CO2 and the delicate dance involved with keeping earth habitable.
I don’t remember him being this good on Nate’s show, but maybe I was not paying attention enough.
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Step by step we get closer to hanging our healthcare leaders for murder.
17 million killed to date is already 3x worse than the holocaust.
https://x.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1799239468198637814
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Hello Rob,
I was wondering what the reference for the 17M number was.
Thank you.
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Our criminal leaders won’t publish the data required for an accurate estimate so we must rely on all cause mortality data and correlate with mRNA transfection rollout dates. Best estimate I’ve seen is by Denis Rancourt.
https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=136&name=2024_01_24_my_response_to_tracy_beth_hoeg039s_criticism_of_our_17m_vaccine_deaths_calculation
There is also another way to estimate the magnitude of murder that I prefer. Simply add up everyone that died from anything associated with covid. This is reasonable because:
1) The virus was engineered in a lab and our leaders have chosen not to prosecute those responsible which makes them accomplices to murder.
2) Most people that died from the disease could have been saved with safe and effective preventative and treatment methods that were deliberately blocked from use by our leaders which is a 2nd charge of murder.
3) The remainder of people that died, and are still dying, were killed by a dangerous mRNA transfection technology that has fundamental flaws in its design which our leaders choose to ignore which makes them guilty a 3rd time for murder.
Google says 15M died worldwide from covid but this is low because 3) is not included.
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I’m waiting on age-standardised all cause excess deaths. Without that, we can’t draw conclusions. I have had a google alert for this, for months, but still nothing. My guess is that there is no such signal yet to prompt some kind of research. Calculations I’ve seen for NZ, Aussie and the UK show no significant excess mortality, if any.
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15+ million people are dead and the criminals are getting away with it because of citizens like you.
If you don’t want to know reality you won’t find it.
https://www.mortality.watch/explorer/?c=USA&c=AUS&c=CAN&e=1&bf=1999&v=2
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If the truth was wanted to be found Mike it is simple to do.
Simply match health events including deaths with vax statis and see if there is a trend.
I think it is pretty obvious they won’t do this because for all age groups a difference will be seen between vaxxed, boostered and unvaxxed – with vaxxed and boostered showing a worse health outcome. If it was the other way around you bet your shorts they would have released the data by now to show that and shut pesky anti-vaxxers down.
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Yes, a deafening silence.
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I tend to agree with you, niko, but I’m resistant to making assumptions.
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Thank you.
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Anecdoctical I know, but I liked this:
Despite what governments and businesses would probably like, people (at least in this documentary) are grounded, responsible.
The fall in fertility rates is, to me, one of the greatest story of our time.
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So many countries have wrecked their economies. Treating young people as revenue streams with education fees, rents, and housing price increases. The older generations are wealthy off the struggles of the younger generations. And now those younger people cannot afford children. This is an outcome of financializing every aspect of life; the capital class trying to wring every last dollar out of people
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I guess it really is a ponzi scheme.
And this seems not to be the first time it happens in history: Herodotus (probably an early days conspiracy theorist) claimed Pharaoh Cheops forced his own daughter in prostitution to pay for his pyramids. (https://time.news/the-pharaoh-who-prostituted-his-daughter-to-pay-for-the-great-pyramid/)
Ponzi scheme, pyramid scheme, aha!
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I liked it too. The girl on the screenshot cover was the best. They are well informed. Wonder how many citizens they interviewed that got edited out? Probably not much.
Cant imagine how many people they would have to edit out in USA to get a comparable documentary. I bet it would be in the tens of thousands.
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I love watching the dumb usa american interviews
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I suppose its easier to be entertained by it from the outside looking in. Just makes me sick to my stomach. But I’m trying to shift my outlook. Way better and healthier to be amused than angry.
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It wouldn’t be so fun if you were American, I could see that. It’s when they can’t even answer the USA questions and I can that I’m really surprised
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Dear Rob,
I hope thou are feeling well.
Perhaps this is folly, however I could not contain myself after thinking about this matter.
Regarding the mind over reality transition theory presented by Dr. Varki.
For it to be the fundamental driving motif for denial, this I have come to question.
I might be utterly incorrect, if you’ll excuse my impudence I will elaborate further on this newfound perspective:
The fundamental driving evolutionary feedback loop is an trait related to fitness and survival, ie. adaptation.
Adaptation and innovation both enabled an accelerated evolutionary path for Genus Homo, increasing fitness whilst reducing metabolic cost, improving cognitive efficiency, increased innovation and EROI.
Immediate needs are prioritised (future discounting), maximum power principle maximises EROI.
Denial is a second order mechanism, increased gain and self-interest by discarding the concerns of the future.
Unforeseen externalities, recognition of longterm-systemic negative effects.
How does denial correspond to environment?
A counter-reaction to denial?
Perspectives:
For any phenomena to exist in a vacuum without an opposing feedback loop seems unlikely.
– The answer is paradoxically self-interest, otherwise any negative matter or situation could not be acknowledged and solved.
Due to self-interest and advanced cognition, an entity may question, resist and/or forego activities which are against their self-interest.
– The experience of negative feedback loops and/or diminishing returns of prior actions, forces one to adapt in order to ensure evolutionary fitness.
To summarise:
Denial is a mechanism, a counter-mechanism ought to exist.
– To overcome denial requires either direct experience and/or acknowledgement of potential loss leading to reduced evolutionary fitness.
Have I lost my wit or how would thy describe this nonsensical blathering?
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Hi ABC, after many discussions with people telling me MORT is wrong I discover at the end that the person did not understand MORT.
The most notable was a year long effort by me to persuade the influential and now dead doomer Jay Hanson that MORT was a keystone for overshoot studies. He was super aggressive against me and MORT. In the end I discovered he completely misunderstood MORT and tried to cover up his ignorance in an unethical manner, and I learned painful lesson.
Another notable example is Mike Roberts who for years here at un-Denial told me MORT was wrong. I eventually discovered he did not understand MORT. He has not given up and still ignores the core evidence.
These experiences reinforce a point made by Dr. Varki in a talk he gave. Most people REALLY do not like MORT. But that dislike is irrelevant to whether MORT is true.
Therefore I’d like to confirm you understand MORT before engaging in discussing it’s merits.
Please summarize MORT in one sentence.
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Dear Rob,
I appreciate thine swift response.
I can only hope my understanding is on par with thyself.
If not, I hope thou can forgive my hubris.
To note, I find the theory presented by Dr. Brown & Dr. Varki to be astoundingly brilliant.
I immediately assimilated the core essence of it into my rationale.
I simply dare suggest, that the emergence of denial might perhaps be increasingly more ancient and archaic instead, whilst also elaborating on how there ought to exist a method on how to plausibly acknowledge and navigate past it.
As imminently and graciously requested, a sentence;
An in tandem development of extended multilateral awareness accompanied by denial of reality, the latter suppresses the notion of impending self-mortality brought forth by the former.
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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ABC how far back are you thinking Denial emerged?
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Dear Monk,
I hope thou are feeling well.
I suppose denial could have occurred when the brain capacity proliferated rapidly due to high nutritional intake, I dare suggest Homo Erectus.
When fire and advanced tools introduced havoc in the area, one ought to notice the causal consequences when resources dwindle due to previous actions.
Moving elsewhere for sustenance and repeating this behaviour is more energy efficient, than remaining sedentary and adapt to scarcer circumstances.
An adaptation which maximises EROI whilst cultivating reality denial?
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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Dear Rob,
I hope thou are feeling well.
What is thine assessment on the matter?
Kind and warm regards,
ABC
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“The evidence is overwhelming. There’s no excuse now for doctors not to be speaking out about abnormal clots.”
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New talkfest from Nate Hagens, with young people. Natasha talking first between the 6-10 minute mark, covers the big picture, but it’s like they were told not to discuss population at all.
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I couldn’t take it and quit. He loves to discuss over and over and over everything except what matters.
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The spiel Natasha gives between the 6 -10 minute mark is easily the best part of the whole ‘show’. She is a very bright young lady that clearly gets what’s wrong with modern civilization and how it’s self terminating, she states this herself.. Then the rest of the show descends into usual talkfest, of NOT discussing how to lower population to prevent as much suffering as possible.
There was also one good bit from James, who’s into regenerative agriculture, where he acknowledges that all the forms of ‘organic’ farming are just the usual methods with slightly different chemicals and not possible in the long term because of fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides etc…
You would think that admitting farming of any type can’t feed the huge population, would lead to discussion about population, but no, just move on to the next irrelevant bit..
I am under the impression they were under instruction to NOT discuss population. I have a suspicion that all the mainstream overshoot aware people are in fear of having their youtube videos banned by discussing what’s most important, like the bans of those discussing alternative treatments that were not vaccines or remdesivir in the main Covid days.
Perhaps the term “population” attracts attention of the youtube censors, who then look very carefully at the content…
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It’s possible YouTube is censoring populaton reduction discussions but I’ve not seen it. Jack Alpert’s and Dave Gardner’s videos have not been blocked as far as I know.
It’s more likley censorship is coming from the benefactor(s) that are funding Nate’s ad free channel and Nate himself.
Nate’s probably also self-censoring. I’ve followed Nate from his beginnings on the oil drum and he’s never been comfortable disussing what needs to be done. He ignores and undermines Jack Alpert. He also does not like Varki’s MORT which is a tell.
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Yes, 6-10min mark was worth listening to. I can listen to an articulate person talk about their journey all day long. Just wish she would name all the sources she used. Can get a good sense of where a person is at on their journey by who they follow.
But the denial around population reduction is so deep and massive. My mom can read RFK’s books (that even Rob had to stop reading because Fauci is so vile and disgusting), and then when I talk to her about overpopulation (or how covid might even be a good thing – for reduction purposes), she walks out of the room and slams the door in my face 😊. Even something softcore like fertility rates going down, she don’t want to hear it. It’s bizarre.
If I can’t get you to see overshoot, I’ll never get you to see that we need to go from 8billion to 1bill in the next 25 years. Talk about an impossible sell.
And I put my money on what Rob said about Nate doing some self-censoring, and mainly because of the people funding his channel.
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I’m not very impressed with Canadian Prepper’s prepping tips, but his guest today is a fellow British Columbian that seems competent at small scale farming and setting up a homestead.
We’ve been thinking about how to cope with awareness and I bring this video to your attention because there are some good practical and philosophical tips here.
P.S. Ignore the click bait title of the video.
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I replayed a bunch of old “best of” podcasts I keep on my phone while painting my house trim today.
I’m thinking we face 5 main threats and it’s not obvious which will strike first:
All paths lead to food.
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I’m using that list and punch line in other forums. To the point.
Just spent the last couple of days planting fruit and nut trees with the family before we have a dump of rain. The food forest is cranking and providing plenty of produce for eating and preserving. Still very attached to the supermarket though.
Happy gardening.
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Food forests are not a thing here, I assume because of the climate. Do you have to feed your forest with fertilizer or any other off farm inputs?
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Right wing wave in Europe. Not mentioned by ZeroHedge but I wonder if covid anger underpins it. I’d vote for Hitler right now if he promised to hang Fauci in public.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/right-wing-tsunami-nationalists-ascendant-euro-parliament-vote-le-pen-crushes-macron
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A powerful comment Rob.
The need for justice if not vengence is a brutally powerful force. It can be so blinding.
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The health minister of every country that pushed mRNA and blocked Ivermectin and vitamin D should join Fauci at the gallows.
Family doctors who turned off their ethics and followed orders may be pardoned from prison terms provided they send a letter to every patient explaining the serious risks and zero benefits of mRNA, and a sincere appology.
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If that happened we’d have no GPs left in NZ.
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It’s OK to make a mistake. But for none to admit it and appologize reveals the healthcare profession has no integrity.
I remember when family doctors were the most respected members of the community. Not any more.
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Definitely not “covid anger”. There’s no such thing among normies xD
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There is something really fishy going on. I don’t understand Macron’s move. Remember this: https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/05/27/wtf-am-i-watching/. I feel like I am watching a rigged boxing match, where one of the fighter has been told to lay down.
Maybe, I am just being paranoïd. But we live in extraordinary times.
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As I understand it, if he loses the election, he keeps his job for the remaining 3 years but doesn’t have to deal with citizen riffraff issues and can focus on being emperor of Europe.
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Indeed maybe. If that’s so, then it’s such a selfish drive without vision.
This is all confusing to me. There are many other possible(?) interpretations:
In any case, we are going to experience a lot of rapid changes. (that I expected anyway, maybe not in this form)
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It is confusing. I don’t know either.
It might be as simple as politicians are losing their minds because they sense scarcity and degrowth is imminent, and they know the only possible solution is to steal stuff from countries that have stuff, like Russia.
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Also, couldn’t Macron be at risk of being sued (after his mandate), if the RN raises the vaccination issue once they seize power?
Of they don’t it will be quite telling…
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It boggles my mind that political opposition parties are not using the covid crimes as a sledgehammer to take down the ruling parties.
Maybe they also buy the bullshit? Or maybe their denial circuit won’t permit them to admit they harmed their own children and so they deny the entire episode?
Also VERY strange that non-mRNA’d countries like Russia and China are not pounding their mRNA’d enemies with truth (or even lies) to damage the credibility of western leaders. Maybe they worry this would be a nuclear red line?
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I don’t know. Many interesting questions without answers… Maybe time will tell us more (or just obscure things further).
Life, to me, is increasingly turning into a big question mark 🙂 I guess that’s how it is…
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Here in oz all major parties supported vaxx crap so they can’t use it. Even Trump can’t.
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Same here in Canada.
Now that we understand we were lied to about pretty much everything, the opposition could claim they also were misled, which is true, and go after the criminals, but they don’t.
The opposition doesn’t even push to stop new mRNA transfections. Not even for babies and children. WTF?
Nor do they go after low hanging fruit like evil foreigners. They could push for the international court to go after Fauci for his gain of function research that started this shit show. But they don’t.
It’s like there’s a powerful force blocking rational thought, which makes me wonder if MORT is in play.
Maybe they just can’t face the reality they increased their chance of clots and turbo cancer and succumbing to a future deadly variant?
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Excellent interview with Serbian president Vucic.
I don’t know anything about Vucic but he feels like a very wise and good man.
Must watch if you’re interested in the Ukraine war.
He provides a clear explanation of why neither side can back down.
h/t Canadian Prepper
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https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/6/9/israels-rescue-of-four-captives-kills-hundreds-of-palestinians-in-gaza
Israel’s operation to free four captives held by Hamas killed more than 270 Palestinians and injured around 700 others in Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp. What’s being praised as a success in Israel has been condemned by several countries and organisations, including the UN, EU, and aid agencies.
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US military personnel assisted with the operation, using the dock they recently built for delivering humanitarian aid.
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What a shocker.
Would somebody please step up and do what should have been done a long time ago. Aim all your nukes at Washington DC and pull the fu#king trigger till it goes click.
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I’ve had a giant salad every night for 2 weeks.
I’m most pleased with the spinach. Seems to compete well with the weeds. Matures more slowly. Easy to harvest. Delicious raw in salad and steamed.
I hate carrots. Spent 2 hours weeding them today and I’m still losing.
Radishes are perfect. Not too spicy.
Not shown in the photo but I harvested my first chard today and had it for dinner. It’s one of my favorite vegetables.
Potted up some more chard and kale in the greenhouse and will transplant to the field in a week or so.
Tomatoes and basil doing well.
Watermelon struggling to adjust to being transplanted in the greenhouse. Might not make it.
That greenhouse you see in the top left is my design. It and a 2nd identical greenhouse (out of frame) are moveable on wheels. It was quite a tricky design and I’m quite proud of them.
The windmill you see top center was built by me and is used to aerate the irrigation pond behind the windmill.
The big greenhouses on the right have been maintained by me over the years with new end walls, new plastic covers, doors, etc.
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Great looking garden Rob! Say more about the movable high tunnel/green house. I’ve looked at the various approaches online (originating with Eliot Coleman and the various design evolution) and am thinking of using fencing gate wheels/galvanized pipes on concrete pads. This civilization is done for, but I’d like to build/grow things (like local food) in the meantime to keep sane and help transition to whatever is too come next.
Also, check out alldaychemist(dot)com for your medical shopping needs. (I saw earlier where you were asking for a good place to acquire such things.)
And thanks for what you do with this site. While I don’t agree with some things, it is a great place for me to lurk in my limited time online to see what’s going on from your perspective and those of your regular commentators. Some great links get posted here.
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Welcome. Your concept is similar to what we used.
There are 3 important issues to pay attention to:
1) How to secure pipes to concrete pads. I wanted to be able to remove pipes when greenhouse was rolled onto a different section. I also wanted elevation adjustments to correct for settling over time. I embedded 2 threaded bolts in each concrete pier. A pair of nuts on each bolt pinches a metal strap bent into a V shape into which the pipe lays.
2) End wall design is critical. Very different constraints than in a normal greenhouse. Wall must be suspended from arch with no support from the base. This requires a lightweight design. I used a 2″x3″ wood frame covered with polycarbonate panels. Also, must be able to move greenhouse over crops that are 24″ high. This means end wall must have hinged lower section that can be flipped up when moving the greenhouse. Lots of fiddly work to do a good job that will last with the polycarbonate. I probably I spent 2 weeks building the 4 end walls.
3) Need lightweight doors. I used a sheet of greenhouse plastic with a metal rod clipped to the bottom and another rod halfway up. The rods were held against the greenhouse with Bayco wire to prevent flapping in the wind. To open, grab the bottom rod and slide up bunching the plastic at the top. Worked quite well and was cheap, lightweight, reliable, and easy to replace the plastic every few years.
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Thanks for the tip on alldaychemist.
They look promising for ivermectin and antibiotics but not hydromorphone or nembutal.
Unfortunately, they don’t ship to Canada.
Prices seemed better than some sources I’ve seen but I’d like to find a supplier of no name generic low-cost products in bulk quantities for trading purposes.
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“I’ve had a giant salad every night for 2 weeks.”
Haha, I could not resist. This is Rob ordering at a restaurant:
Seinfeld How about a big salad (youtube.com)
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Congratulations for everything.
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Sunset from my front yard.
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Great spot Rob
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New presentation by Nate Hagens. Looks like they put a lot of work into the production. I have not watched yet.
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At an hour and fifty five minutes, it must be one of Nate Hagen’s longest videos. I’ve only watched the first 55 minutes so far and plan to watch the remainder tomorrow. So far it is pretty good and I think it is worth watching. At 50′ Nate discusses 4 possible paths :
The video is likely an excellent recap for most of us here on un-denial.com and for me, deepens the sense of doom. It is obvious a lot of effort went into producing the video.
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It’s Nate’s usual stuff, nothing really new, lots of ideas about what we need to do for a simpler future without ever mentioning the elephant in the room of vast overpopulation, rendering most of his solutions useless.
I would suggest Nate has a great plan if it had been implemented 100 years ago with a much smaller population and many easy to get resources available, that could have had a planned usage to set up a sustainable society.
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The first part is a good overview of our predicament but he does then descend into promoting his own hopes and dreams. He desperately wants modernity to continue (and I’m sure most of us do) without explaining how that could possible be sustainable. He wants to retain what he thinks of as the good stuff and ends up promoting what might be termed airy fairy ideas about personal development (perhaps a hang over from his India trip). I’d love to follow a great simplification path, because it keeps modernity alive for a bit longer, but that will ultimately fail, and humans, if they survive, will be back to the real world of vying with other species for food and trying to avoid injury.
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Dr. Tom Murphy today returns to population trends.
I just skimmed it and am not really interested in his analysis because he seems to think 8 billion is not a problem as long as it trends down later this century.
I think 2 billion is going to be a challenge by 2050 with fertilizer scarcity and accelerating warming due to aerosol reduction.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/06/population-what-if-games/
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Nuking the weeds in my bed of beans that never germinated using the magic of fossil energy.
In the background you can see the electric fence I built to keep the bears out of the blueberries and black currants.
The blue barrels have fish fertilizer we apply via the irrigation system using a header I built that sucks fertilizer out of the barrels and injects it into the water stream.
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That’s some good looking soil on the farm, organically rich, nice clod size friable soil. The fact you add fish fertilizer to a soil that good should tell those that know little about farming what’s necessary to keep food flowing from farms, of all types.
No fertilizer, then the flow of food to cities will fall very quickly. In the future world of no fossil fuels, we will not be able to return the human wastes from cities to farms, therefore cities as we know them can no longer exist.
Rob, now imagine how long it will take you to turn those weeds in with a spade. It’s the actual hard farm work that people will do anything to get away from, and I suspect it means burning every last drop of oil it’s possible to obtain. Would you pay $10/ltre to do that job? I would, likewise for gathering wood to keep warm, I’ll use my chainsaw every day of the week. (especially at our age!!)
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Yes, I agree.
The fish fertilizer is only used for the blueberries, black currants, and garlic.
We have pallet of fish bone meal and a pallet of feather meal for the vegetables.
You can tell when someone doesn’t understand the reality of farming when they talk nonsense about using only compost or biochar to grow large quantities of food.
Then there’s all the plastic needed by a farm for irrigation pipes, drip tape, valves, greenhouse cover, seed trays, row cloth etc.
I decided to rebel a little here by not covering my beds with reemay cloth (which we have a barn full of) and letting nature do it’s thing because it’s made from polyester (aka oil).
The farm I help has invested a lot in battery operated chainsaws, strimmers, pruners etc. They work but when the going gets tough I go and get the gas operated version. I’m watching to see how long the battery tools last. I’m betting a gas chainsaw will outlast the battery version but time will tell.
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My electric chain saws and weed trimmers (Home Depot crap) run initially for about 45 minutes. After 1 year they are down to about 20 minutes so you have to buy more batteries (the expensive part). If I didn’t have a gas backup I would not get the big jobs done. I like the battery ones for their quieter operation but you have to have a gas backup. And this doesn’t even address the poor quality of manufacture of all small power tools.
AJ
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I sure do like RFK Jr.
https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1799661474438385852
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Rachel Maddow. SMH. Cannot believe I was duped into thinking she was one of the good guys.
I first heard of her during the mid to late 2000’s on Air America Radio. Along with Sam Seder, Marc Maron, Cenk Uygur, Al Franken and others. It was like the all-stars of who you should be paying attention to. Thought I was in good hands. Cant stand those people now. And what a waste of time they all are. I never heard the word “overshoot” once from any of them.
If you are into Noam Chomsky, you will like these people. If you are into what really matters, you will hate them.
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Rachel Maddow has a head like the chewed on eraser end of a pencil.
Awful person from the get go.
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I hate cheap shots at people’s physical appearance. But you did make me chuckle, so I’ll forgive you.😊
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Lindsey Graham in a 1-minute video says the quiet bit out loud and explains the real reason the US is meddling in Ukraine (and Russia).
It’s about resources.
https://x.com/GabeZZOZZ/status/1799887947363393859
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From my comment on Mike Roberts – Humans are a Species
Ukraine infrastructure is kaput!
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When I was in university in 1979 the government tried to educate citizens on the risks of nuclear war, in part of course to secure more spending on the military.
Today they pretend there are no risks and provoke an enemy assuming it is bluffing.
See the interview above with Serbian President Vucic for a most interesting discussion on why it is unwise to assume Russia is bluffing.
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Sarah Connor with a good short article reminding us why humans have got to go.
And the Historic Accounts pdf is totally worth reading.
Alien Planet Earth (collapse2050.com)
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https://www.bizcommunity.com/article/saudi-arabias-petro-dollar-exit-a-global-finance-paradigm-shift-670911a
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What collapse looks like today in an overpopulated country dependent on food imports.
Now imagine the conditions if rich countries were unable to help Haiti.
Coming soon to many countries.
h/t Panopticon
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/haiti-food-insecurity-gang-violence-famine-hunger/
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Even if it’s exaggerated, I get some pleasure from reading that the US is being spanked.
Probably has something to do with them respecting and protecting rather than hanging Fauci, and supplying the weapons being used to genocide Gaza.
https://indi.ca/how-us-navy-defeated/
The essay also includes interesting evidence that complexity is difficult to maintain when growth stalls.
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Great essay. I get enormous pleasure from reading that the US is being spanked. Probably has something to do with every single thing they’ve ever done since coming over here from europe in the 1600’s.
Side note: A while back I sent Indi a long email regarding my crazy white skin stuff that I am so hung up on. He finally replied yesterday. Was hoping to get a nice informative email back. LOL. I get the sense that Indi wanted no part of my nonsense, and the short reply below was his polite way of saying “Chris, you are full of shit”. 😊
But Indi is so good that even with just a line or two, he can get me thinking.
I wonder about the white skin. My private theory was that the Neandertals were white and the ‘black’ African homo sapiens genocided them. But I have no idea. Skin color obviously doesn’t fossilize well.
Indi
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Australia concealing excess deaths and vaccine injuries.
https://x.com/toobaffled/status/1800865753480270041
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This is worthless opinion, whoever he is. Show me the data.
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As per usual Mike you want someone else to do the work for you. Go to the Australian Stats gov site and check it out for yourself, to vaildate the claim. Because remember what you say is just opinion and judging by past opinions you have stated you can be wrong. I imagine though that seeking out data on why the vaccines didn’t work and actually harmed people is not something you wish to prove.
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That’s not correct, Niko. I have often done the leg work and so have an opinion formed from that. When I see something posted that is a) from an unknown person, b) citing unverified claims then I discount it and am dismayed that such a thing is posted here, given all that has been said here about sources.
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By the way, niko, your comment indicates that you don’t believe the nameless person in the video clip, either, because he claimed that the Australian Stats service was hiding excess deaths. If I could go to the site and do the calculation for myself, then they can’t be hiding that information.
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They aren’t hiding, no one seems to care is the problem.
I looked at the data last year.
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Me too, though not a deep dive. I saw no evidence of significant excess deaths in my quick calculation.
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Covid incompetence and bad ethics killed 15+ million people which is 3x worse than the holocaust which means I now have zero tolerance for any defense of what happened.
There is some uncertainty in how many people were killed by withholding of effective treatments, and by mRNA, but it is a fact that every death was caused by gain of function research that our leaders are not prosecuting which makes them accomplices to murder of every person that died for any reason.
I am deleting all of your covid comments but left this one standing because nikoB responded.
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Nate Hagens interview today ties in well with what un-Denial (and Hideaway) has been focused on lately. I only made it about an hour. My MORT forced me to stop watching. Can only take so much before my head starts spinning. We are so fu#ked.
Summary: Today’s conversation with economics journalist Ed Conway focuses on the six essential resources that underpin our modern economies – sand, salt, iron, copper, oil, and lithium – and dives into the (often unseen) environmental and human costs of extracting them, as well as the surprisingly fragile global supply chains they fuel. What does it take to mine, refine, and transform the materials that are foundational to the world around us – which many of us now take for granted?
The Key Resources Underpinning Modern Economies with Ed Conway | TGS 127 (youtube.com)
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Chris, you beat me to posting this one by minutes… I watched every minute and would include it as a must watch as any of Nate’s videos. At the very end it peters out a bit with the hopium of all getting together and living a simple life etc..
Why it’s important, is all about the total and utter complexity of everything in our modern world, but missing from the thinking of either Ed or Nate was the understanding of why we have the 6 continent supply chain and unbelievable specialization to the point of a single, possibly even small, factory creating whatever little widget needed throughout the world for entire industries.
It’s the scaling, that in economics is called “economies of scale” but appears to happen throughout nature as well. Basically less resources needed for each individual part of the larger organism. Once energy became scarcer, then the only way for individuals to become ‘better off’ is to scale up as part of the larger organism.
As more specialization creates efficiencies internally, Jevons paradox kicks in and more use is found for whatever resources.
Without going into too much detail, this overall video, if you combine it after watching Nate’s video with Geoffrey West on scaling, episode 117, makes me even more confident that collapse of civilization is a feature of civilization, with exactly the same type of certainty that every organism has of dying of something, or ‘old age’, but will definitely die. The death is the sudden unravelling of all internal systems that has been keeping individual cells alive.
We could have any number of actions that end civilization, sudden climate change, a super volcano eruption, nuclear war, pandemic, etc, etc, however if we just get to the point of rapid decline of energy availability, then collapse and death of civilization is assured, very quickly!
When we have a rapid decline in energy availability, especially oil, of say 2mbbls/d one year followed by a further 3-4 mbbls/d the next and another 4-5 the year after, the consequences of not just the odd factory, but hundreds of thousands around the world each with their specialization relied upon by vast tracks of the industrial system, means no possible recovery.
There is no possibility of anywhere being able to build all their own factories to supply all the specialized bits, because that takes a huge quantity of energy and materials to build, right when we will have decreasing availability of both of these because of minor breakdowns and replacement specialist ‘bits’ becoming unavailable.
What I’m trying to say with a lot of explanation that doesn’t really cover it at all, is that the situation is even worse than I thought it was. My head was exploding with links and connections when watching that video.
The feedback loops of everything in our modern world are so enormous and fragile, that when energy depletion really kicks in, will cause recession/depression closing businesses everywhere, then parts availability crashing from the complex supply chains, will guarantee a fast reduction in availability of everything all at once, including the ‘bits’ needed for normal oil rig operations, pipelines, refineries, etc, which means a faster reduction, that closes all sorts of factories due to the recession/depression that comes from high oil prices.
Different parts that come from multitudes of other factories quickly slows gas, coal, solar, wind and every other form of energy, likewise on farms, trucks, forklifts, fridges and freezers in warehouses and shops.
The feedback negative spiral has to be an accelerating one due to lack of energy, which is totally different from the great depression where we had almost unlimited nearly free oil, so we only had to add money printing to get out of the situation. Also different are such huge populations stuck in cities, compared to 90 odd years ago, with no possibility of governments getting food to them as oil availability rapidly contracts, nor any ability of farmers doing anything other than reducing overall production, due to lack of fuel, fertilizers, parts for tractors, pumps, coolrooms, irrigation fittings, etc.
Everything the modern world tries to do with renewables, nuclear, batteries, EVs, high tech everything, just makes the situation worse, as in falling from a greater dependency on technology when the collapse happens.
BTW, next time someone comes up with the green tech will save us, remind them it takes 400kg of petcoke (petroleum coke) to make 1 metric tonne of aluminium (alumina).
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I have not watched the video yet, but I did get Conway’s book and I read the reviews.
More than a dozen heavy hitters gave it a superlative review. Everyone thinks the book is important. Awards were given such as:
And yet a few days or weeks later the implications will be forgotten, and no one will be discussing overshoot.
Same phenomenon with the 2 books on Fauci that proved he is an evil monster that should be in prison. Nothing happened. No one cares.
If this is not MORT in action, what is it?
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Your comment got me thinking about the complete opposite of this phenomenon. The fact that the same dipshit experts who told us about “weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq are still on the Sunday morning political shows like Meet the Press 20 years later still giving us their “expert” opinions about war.
Rather than MORT, I think it’s all about the public relations/propaganda machine.
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Good point. We live in a world without consequences for bad behavior by powerful people.
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I think MORT underpins most of it, but we have also moved into a time where just too much is being thrown at us take stock so most things don’t get no absorbed into our minds.
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Hideaway, you are just full of good news aren’t you. Ya my head was exploding during this episode too. I’m vocal about wanting a near term quick collapse of civilization. This video (and of course your recent work including this comment above) is starting to cement it for me.
John Michael Greer and his 200-year (or whatever) descent into collapse always sounded like bullshit. (love Greer’s work, but not his prediction). Seems too much of a Roman Empire like comparison. And we all know this fossil energy global beast is unlike anything from the past.
This comment I found sums it up for me: “Our current likelihood of complex manufacturing and supply chain resources collapse may be due to our basic non-understanding of how complex modern industrial creation and inter-dependency actually works”
But then again, past civilizations seemed to have trouble grasping that if you chop all your trees down, there are no more trees left. We humans have never been good at understanding this stuff.
p.s. Rob, I’m sure its gone from the spam folder, but if you ever come across my super long post about evil, please dont post it. Send it back to me. I think it was from Feb or March
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I’m sorry, you comment is gone. I must have missed it before deleting the spam folder.
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I just left a long reply to this, that told me ‘comment successfully sent’, yet seems to have disappeared..
Anyway, it’s an excellent episode and my brain was exploding throughout. The situation is even worse than I previously thought.
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Dangit, I want the long version of what you said.
Dont you hate that. Has happened to me a couple of times on this site. One of my longest rants (about evil and spirituality) disappeared and I was never able to recreate it. Might have been a blessing for everyone though because in my redo attempts it was crystal clear that I did not know what I was talking about. 😊
I now always type into a draft email, then copy/paste it here, and I dont delete the draft until I see it has posted successfully.
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I fixed it. I’m not sure but it’s possible Hideaway forgot to log in which caused WordPress to spam it.
Don’t panic when a comment does not appear. I check the spam folder at least once a day.
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Vaclav Smil’s list of the the four essentials for industrial civilisation is concrete,steel, plastics and ammonia. Ammonia is certainly a much more fundamental requirement to support this population bubble than lithium. Currently manufactured from natural gas, and Smil’s analysis in “Enriching the Earth ” estimates that without it, the maximum human population that could be supported on the land area now used for food production is about three billion. I haven’t watched the video, so don’t know if he mentions this.
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One thing I can guarantee is that I won’t be watching a video or buying a book by an economist on how the physical world works. Robert Solow received a Nobel prize in economics , largely for a paper , where he concluded that “In effect, the world can get by without natural resources “. Maybe this bloke is an ecological economist or biophysical economist, who are in a different category. They have zero influence on mainstream economics, which is disconnected from physical reality.
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I just reread it, He is an economics journalist, not an economist.
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Hi Rob. Replying here to your question about our food forest. The only off farm inputs have been a few trailer loads of cow / horse manure from a neighbours farm. Mainly used during initial plantings coming up 3 years ago. Here are a few recent photos of our first plantings which cover around 200m2. https://photos.app.goo.gl/TjpPya31rCNA2NsAA
We are practicing a method called Syntropic Agroforestry we are learning from friends who are experts. In a nutshell syntropic agriculture is designed to generate the fertility you need to grow crops
internally, planting a range of support species that are pruned regularly to provide mulch and ‘pulse’
sunlight and growth hormone through your system, actually improving soil fertility
over time. You plant everything, including annuals, fruit and nut plants and support species all at once. Our main management tool is a machete for chop and drop.
Here’s a short intro to our friends and syntropy.
If you want a bit more technical info watch this one or search Permadynamics on YouTube.
While syntropy started in the subtropics you can definitely apply it to any climate once you understand the principles. We can grow subtropicals and temperate species here. I think you’re temperate where you are. I can’t see why you couldn’t convert at least part of your growing area to a food forest. Here’s an example from a temperate zone in Germany.
Happy gardening
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Thank you, Campbell, I’ll watch these.
I remember seeing a video you shared of your property and I was very impressed.
I can imagine that with your diversity of plants, and heavy mulching, that your nitrogen and carbon needs can be met without any off-farm inputs since these come from the air.
However, over time there must be a draw-down of other nutrients assuming you are not recycling all of your human waste. Perhaps because you have a forest the roots are deeper and therefore the draw-down is slower? Or maybe nutrients are being delivered from off-site by the ground water?
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We do recycle some of our human waste into the food forest and there is abundant ground water beneath our volcanic soils.
Some support plants are also selected for their ability to accumulate certain minerals too. As we have a large piece of land we can harvest these from non-food forest areas to top up. I understand your query is relating to long-term depletion. I’m not sure how that will play out. We’ve not tested our soil so far.
If you are lucky enough to live near the coast then regular collection of seaweeds is another way to get trace minerals back into your soil.
Cheers
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Thanks. You have chosen and improved a wonderful property.
I have harvested some seaweed, but it is very slow to break down, and can be heavy with salts. Seaweed might be useful for supplementing a kitchen garden for personal consumption, but not a farm exporting a lot of food.
And by the way, the abundant kelp beds of my childhood are gone and very little seaweed washes up on the shore now. I went to a talk by biologists studying the problem. They don’t know for sure what is going on but it’s probably a change in pH due to CO2 absorption, or a warmer temperature.
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Thanks Rob. It’s a great place and lifestyle to help keep my mental health in order.
Here we have many kina (sea urchin) baron reefs where the fish species that normally control the urchin population have been depleted by overfishing and so the urchins have eaten all the kelp.
I haven’t worked much with seaweed but our friends at Permadynamics use it often to replenish their food forest. They are on a hill and soak the seaweed for a few weeks in a pond near the top of the hill and then pull the plug and let it flush into the forest via basic drainage channels.
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Have not watched yet but probably good if you are interested in the latest on the nuclear war threat.
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More good tips from Curtis Stone on building a homestead.
Again, ignore the click bait title.
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Quick note. Curtis Stone is a climate change denier and that always puts me off people’s opinions, though Curtis has done some good stuff in the garden. I went to one of his talks and it was inspiring.
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Thanks for the warning. A lot of people seem to be moving in that direction, like Chris Martenson and Bret Weinstein, oddly, and consistent with MORT, just as the evidence for climate change becomes hard not to see with our own eyes.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/13/greece-shuts-acropolis-schools-as-it-braces-for-43c-heatwave
Greece shuts Acropolis, schools as it braces for 43°C heatwave
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