Sidestepping Genetic Reality Denial by Manipulating Behavior for Overshoot Harm Reduction

It’s rare to encounter a new and constructive idea for addressing human overshoot that is not fatally flawed by a lack of understanding of either thermodynamic and geophysical constraints, or the strong genetic behavior to deny unpleasant realities that enabled the human species to emerge and dominate the planet.

For anyone still looking for technically feasible solutions that have a non-zero probability of success for reducing harms from human overshoot I recommend the most recent Planet: Critical podcast in which Rachel Donald interviews Joseph Merz.

https://www.planetcritical.com/p/urgency-action-and-ethics-joseph?s=r

There are no easy solutions to the climate crisis—most governments admit their hope lies in technology which doesn’t even exist yet. Science and “visionaries” propose increasingly mad ideas, like refreezing the Arctic, or sending humans to live in Space. But given the urgency of the situation, would we be mad not to consider these mad ideas?

Joseph Merz thinks we’ve run out of time to ask questions. He founded the Merz Institute to combat the climate crisis, gathering some of the world’s best scientists to establish what is going wrong and how to fix it. He says the answer is behavioural change—and they’re developing a programme that would manipulate mass behaviour on a subconscious level.

How? Well, using the same techniques as the advertising industry.

Key points made include:

  • It is too late to avoid suffering caused by human overshoot.
  • There may still be time to make the future less bad.
  • All actions we might take to reduce future suffering require changes in human behavior to consume less and have fewer children.
  • Information and education to date have proven completely ineffective at changing human behavior in a positive direction, and we are out of time to try new methods of education.
  • The advertising industry has developed technologies that are very effective at manipulating people to desire and acquire things they do not need to be happy, and in many cases cannot afford.
  • Merz proposes to redeploy these proven marketing technologies to manipulate people to desire happiness associated with lower consumption and fewer children.

Neither Rachel Donald or Joseph Merz appear aware of Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition (MORT) theory but I’m thinking that Merz’s proposal might sidestep the fatal flaw in most other overshoot harm reduction proposals that require humans to first acknowledge the reality of their predicament, which appears to be impossible because of MORT.

The beauty of Merz’s plan is that it does not require reality awareness because it will manipulate humans at a subconscious level.

It will be interesting to see if the marketing technologies are powerful enough to override the Maximum Power Principle (MPP) which is another powerful genetic behavior that pushes us in an overshoot direction. I’m thinking (without any evidence or data) that it might be possible to override the MPP because we are such a strong social species.

Godspeed to Merz and screw the ethics.

P.S. I doubt it is true, but I observe that if you assume the WEF Great Reset has good intentions grounded in overshoot awareness, it is possible they are thinking along the same lines as Merz with their “you will own nothing and be happy” campaign. The WEF campaign does seem rather clumsy compared to say associating happiness with a Corona beer on a high-carbon long distance vacation. I think it is more likely the WEF is trying to prepare citizens for a Minsky moment in which much asset ownership will transfer to the state.

P.P.S. It’s fascinating that so many overshoot aware people are active in the small country of New Zealand.

394 thoughts on “Sidestepping Genetic Reality Denial by Manipulating Behavior for Overshoot Harm Reduction”

  1. “It’s rare to encounter a new and constructive idea …”
    I understand that we are past the point on whether ideas need to be “constructive”. At this point effective is the only requirement and if it happens to be destructive (of our habits, but no further damage to the earth) then the best I might respond with is a sigh.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  2. Interesting interview — even Merz doesn’t have much hope for the methods he proposes. And he’s probably right. Advertising methods like Bernays-style propaganda do have limits in what they can achieve and almost always they have been used by the powerful, yet another tool put towards the Getting of More(tm). Has any creature on the planet ever used tools to get less? Doubtful. In any event, there is no reason to think that any anti-consumerist campaign won’t be countered with similar tactics backed by much deeper pockets — high consumption is the lifeblood of the developed world afterall. Couple this with peak energy, overshoot, exiting the Holoscene and several critical tipping points now in the rear-view mirror and I think any so-called bottleneck for humanity will be quite narrow indeed.

    Liked by 4 people

    Reply

    1. Agree Jeorge – first they are going to have to overcome this (from Statista), pulling in exactly the opposite direction-
      “It is estimated that media owners ad revenue worldwide fell to 622 billion U.S. dollars in 2020, representing a decline of roughly 3.1 percent compared with the previous year. In 2021 the figures grew by 22.5 percent as the market recovered from the impact of the coronavirus.”
      Rob-I’m pretty certain that “screw the ethics” is the motto of certain drug companies (as well as media, arms etc companies and most politicians). I’m not convinced it’s for us undenialists but the times are tricky to say the least.
      Any idea what has happened to David Pursel who used to comment quite often?
      Hopefully just having a doom break

      Like

      Reply

  4. Hi Rob,

    Nice to meet you here on a new page, although I mightily enjoyed the last which must be a record for number of comments tagged onto a post! Thank you for sharing this post which opens up a whole new can of worms, perhaps we are now touching on the very definition of what makes us human in regards to our behaviour and socialisation, and whether there is an a priori state from which all our evolution originated. Has it always been thus that we are creatures of survival, clinging between being the fittest and barely avoiding scarcity? Are we all just creations of our earliest socialisations and the society in which we were born? If one could snatch a new born babe from an ancient civilization and bring the child up in ours, he or she would grow up with all the mores, language and sensibilities of ours, genetically there is no difference between humans tens of thousand years ago and the specimens today, but light years apart in how our societies are constructed with life-skills and technology. In the same vein, we could take a new born today and raise him or her in any other culture and then that would be theirs even though their biological parents were of another. Maybe we all just want to channel our inner Tarzan! However, it wouldn’t work as well, if at all, if we take an adult already formed in one society and transplant him/her to another, in fact, even a teenager brought up in our Western lifestyle today would have a total culture shock going back 70-80 years even in the same Western country. I don’t believe many have even seen a dial telephone! So there is a crucial time frame for the inculcation of behaviour, that starts from our earliest sensory imprinting. Changing behaviour to any degree after our foundational wiring becomes an exercise in dogged determination, but of course can be done especially on the individual level with enough motivational force. Trying to effect a 180 degree change in the masses, especially those behaviours so ingrained to our social make-up and which actually define our identity in that society, is probably futile, as is evidenced by our recalcitrance to changing behaviours in relation to our climate crisis (which we can no longer deny), and since the majority are not even aware of our energy overshoot, the new behaviours needed aren’t even in their consciousness. We are as addicted to our energy hungry way of life as we are to air, and we just don’t see it. I do not believe the powers of advertising will work to encourage a behaviour or strike a need which isn’t already ready to be exploited, especially if it is diametrically opposed to what we have been long programmed to expect as a normal and desirable continuum of life. The only exigency may come when the masses are driven to the point of losing their security and survival in that society, when the most primal needs are threatened, then the self-preservation instinct should kick in and we shall be clamouring for a saviour to our fate. Perhaps it is this state of collective angst that the likes of WEF and whatever else controls it is organising toward and they will have their panacea paradigm shift at the ready. Their catch phrase of build back better belies the need for complete social disintegration as we know it before re-integration into the new order can begin.

    I believe that the powers that would even remotely have the capacity and ability to roll out this level of total global restructuring have done their homework for decades on the possibility of total control of the human organism, both on an individual and societal level. Behaviour scientists have been the masterminds behind governance in every arena and the art and artifice of advertising has lapped up just the crumbs of their work to staggering effect. It seems that controlling our human sensory make-up is as easy as stealing candy from a baby, once we understand what is the candy that drives us, or even better, creating it in the first place. BF Skinner wrote Walden Two in 1948, which depicts a society in which human problems are solved by a scientific technology of manipulating human conduct, to create by purely behavioural means a modern utopia. I first read this about 30 years ago and it has been a seminal influence for me in beginning the dialogue of whether it is ethical to attempt such a radicalisation, with the end point to relieve human suffering and now, perhaps to even save the human and all other species. Today’s post brings this question back to the fore, and I refer to Skinner’s new preface to the 1976 edition for his very prescient and haunting comment:

    “It is now widely recognized that great changes must be made in the American way of life. Not only can we not face the rest of the world while consuming and polluting as we do, we cannot for long face ourselves while acknowledging the violence and chaos in which we live. The choice is clear: either we do nothing and allow a miserable and probably catastrophic future to overtake us, or we use our knowledge about human behaviour to create a social environment in which we shall live productive and creative lives and do so without jeopardizing the chances that those who follow us will be able to do the same. Something like a Walden Two would not be a bad start.”

    It’s been about one human lifetime since this book’s publication and I believe it is as relevant today for the issues raised, and also as background understanding for what the societal agenda might be in our near future. One overarching principle that stands out in the methods of behaviour control is the importance of starting with a blank slate, one only need to usurp the youngest generation into the new program and the results are assured, as long as there is no other experience available than the one you are imprinting. Every governance has known this, and we are the proof it has worked to some degree. After all, we have all gone through school as if it was the most natural and beneficial method to gain knowledge and become useful citizens in society. I spent the first 25 or so years of my life being progressively indoctrinated by instituted education and in the last 25 years I have deconstructed most of what I was taught. People like us would need a total re-boot to literally get with the program! If it could be taught in the earliest years classroom that population and consumption needed to be decreased as responsible good global citizens, then we may have that hope of changing behaviour, assuming the conflicting views are shouted down. This goes to explain why the Gretas of today will necessarily create a division between the generations, and that conflict will actually become part of the defining identity of the younger generation and make it more potent for its cause. Something similar happened in post war Germany when the young generation decried the apathy of their parents during the Nazi regime. And of course, the blind fervent obedience of the young Red Guards mobilised Communist China. To maximise the effect of the youngest generation will always need an opposition to their cause. My observation is that the aims of WEF are very much geared to the young; the “you will own nothing and be happy” shot was of a smiling young adult and the reason it may seem abhorrent to those of older generations is because our programming and experience is all about economic growth and materialism for a successful life. We may not actually have the perspective to understand that to a young person growing up today, they may reject this (possibly for the reason they cannot afford to own much anyway or perhaps they have seen the light as more commune-minded, responsible good global citizens) and what WEF is offering seems very much on target.

    What concerns me about what seems very likely the foundations being laid for the new paradigm is that many streams of influence are being robustly attempted at once, and that may be destabilising to the current system before a new one has taken its place. There is less likelihood of a controlled, effective behavioural transition (if that is our only remaining hope) when total chaos reigns, but more so, the human suffering will be insufferable.

    Thanks again for hearing me out, and for giving me the chance to revisit Walden Two.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Thanks Gaia for making this a more interesting site.

      When I read something my brain first tries to identify the key points before it decides how to respond. Please correct me if I’m wrong but here’s what I think are your key points:

      1) Human behavior is determined primarily by learned culture rather than inheritance.
      2) Mature humans do not change behavior unless forced.
      3) Advertising technology is not powerful enough to change learned behaviors.
      4) The WEF has good intentions and is preparing for BAU collapse and/or an attempt to address climate change by targeting the youth who’s behavior can be influenced.

      I think I agree with all of your points except I do believe that MORT and MPP provide inherited bounds within which learned culture must remain confined.

      Observing a few young people I think I detect support for Justin Trudeau’s authoritarian response to covid because the young believe we need harsh tools to address environmental and economic problems.

      P.S. Wikipedia provides some interesting color to Skinner’s Walden Two:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walden_Two

      Like

      Reply

      1. I’m not so sure that human behaviour is learned, except in a superficial sense. I think we have a characteristic behaviour, just like any other species, but that behaviour is manifested in ways that have changed over time due to the change in environmental (with a small “e”) circumstances. If humans had never figured out a way to harness coal and oil, we’d still be destroying the planet and trying to gain more for ourselves, though obviously at a much lower level.

        Like

        Reply

  6. Sadly, it is WAY too late for tinkering with and titillating the brain-dead masses. The human race will be lucky to survive the next few decades, never mind trying to “fix” our global ecological overshoot with TV advertising.

    If you haven’t read it already I highly recommend the paper “Our Hunter Gatherer Future”

    Click to access Our-Hunter-Gatherer-future.pdf

    We have already spewed enough carbon into our atmosphere to totally destabilize our climate, like nothing seen since the Pleistocene, and we are only just now starting to feel the effects from the last few decades of our global shit-fuckery. It’s going to get much, MUCH worse.

    Industrial civilization is done. All that’s left is the shouting.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Thanks. Good paper by Gowdy who seems to agree with Menz that collapse of civilization is certain but we should still work to make the future less bad. Gowdy does not offer any new ideas on how to accomplish this.

      Like

      Reply

      1. I’m not sure what you mean by “new” ideas, but they had very specific suggestions for making the future less bad:

        “Policies could be enacted to make the transition away from industrial civilization less devastating
        and improve the prospects of our hunter-gatherer descendants. These include aggressive policies
        to reduce the long-run extremes of climate change, aggressive population reduction policies,
        rewilding, and protecting the world’s remaining indigenous cultures.”

        I understand if you are frustrated with just how unlikely those policy prescriptions are, but at least give credit where it is due.

        Like

        Reply

        1. I didn’t consider those credible suggestions for making the future less bad because we’ve tried those ideas for 50 years with zero success. A different approach is clearly required.

          Like

          Reply

          1. The one possible exception I’ll note is that “preserving existing indigenous cultures” was new to me. This might be the best we can do. We’ll all be applying for internships soon.

            Like

            Reply

    1. Thank you. Every aspect of covid stinks.

      Bret Weinstein & Heather Heying in their podcast today took down the recent “gold standard study” on Ivermectin that the morons in the mainstream news are gleefully quoting without asking a single skeptical question.

      Like

      Reply

      1. They “took down” their own podcast today? Should I search an archive for something with a title “gold standard study” which is likely ubiquitous, or something else? If it was taken down then I guess it is daft to ask for a link.

        Or do you mean they took apart someone else’s “gold standard study”?

        Like

        Reply

  9. I liked the Merz podcast. He at least is looking for solutions. But, I think that without an understanding of MORT and MPP you don’t realize how hard it will be to even begin to move people. A case in point is my wife: she has heard all my arguments about collapse yet denies that it is occurring or even going to occur. All the logic, facts and emotional appeals in the world can’t push past denial and hopium. And I too think it is far to late to avoid collapse and possible extinction. The only hope I have is that we can make it less worse for some small part of the bioshere so that life and maybe humans might survive – but it is a vanishingly small hope.
    AJ

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Hi there AJ, I’ve appreciated your erudite, thought-provoking, yet concise comments on various topics, that is something I aspire to but alas, succinctness was never my forte! Thank you for sharing about your wife’s perspective on overshoot, that has impressed upon me greatly and I am made curious by but more so, I wish to understand more of her outlook as I am sure it will help us undenialists to find common ground with friends and family who are firmly entrenched on the grass is greener side of this fence. I can imagine you’ve had many vigorous and appealing discussions on the topic. Logically, to us at least, there is no doubt of our situation. But, I am thinking that maybe your wife’s views are formed more by great emotion, generated for those she loves and cares for greatly. I am wondering if you have children and perchance, grandchildren? Maybe some kind of overshoot denial is formed this way. A mother’s deepest instinct is to protect her young and if at all possible, prevent or ameliorate any harm which may befall them. If a situation occurs which challenges their well-being and opportunity for happiness, completely overriding any possibility of longstanding security, and there is nothing that can be done to keep the wolf from the door, then denial is the fall-back mechanism to eradicate this untenable dissociation. If it doesn’t exist in my reality, then it cannot harm me, and even more importantly, those I love; we humans are good at assuming the ostrich position. This attitude most likely is arrived at sub or even unconsciously, and no evidence to the contrary will shake it, because it is a form of self-preservation but more so, this belief preserves those who are integral to one’s self. We here are conversant with the impending chaos and possible societal collapse and even human extinction isn’t unfamiliar territory, but for most, just getting over denial of death is a challenge, not to mention the total obliteration of everything one knows and will be. I am thinking and feeling more and more that the capacity for denial is actually a compassionate escape hatch for which we have different limits before bailing out, and I should respect and even use it as such. Maybe it is enough for us to know what we know, change what we can, and have the serenity to accept all the rest. I hope all is as peaceful and joyful as can be in your corner of this earth, and best wishes to your family.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Hi Gaia,
        It’s nice to see your comments on the blog. I have written comments here for probably the better of 6 months (maybe a year?).
        So, for some of you, you already know about me already. My wife (Chinese 2nd generation) and I, are in our late 60’s. We now live in the coastal mountains of central Oregon. We both have undergrad college degrees in biology and are both retire lawyers. Because I was unaware of the true extent of the problem tying population to consumption and collapse we had 4 children. Now two (and maybe no more) grandchildren. All our kids are college educated. I have one daughter who is collapse aware and is attempting to finish a masters degree in sustainable agriculture. I meanwhile attempt to garden 3 large gardens and manage(??) 25 acres of Douglas fir (probably 3rd or 4th generation) forest/open oak pasture.
        I agree with your proposed analysis that my wife, purely for emotional reasons, denies the inevitability of collapse. She is into BAU forever, because absent that what is the purpose of life? I just try to live my life around that fact.
        AJ

        Like

        Reply

        1. Hi AJ, thank you so much for that lovely introduction to you, your family and your description of what sounds a very idyllic life in these fascinating times. I can sense the pride and joy you and your wife have for your children and well deserved, I am certain you both have provided them a wonderful foundation for them to make their self-directed lives, and each of us has to find our own meaning for ourselves. And perhaps living in the crucible moment that we are gives us the most opportunity to figure out who we really are.
          I am always interested in others’ gardens, and your forest reserve sounds like a haven! The climate where you are in Oregon is probably very similar to our maritime temperate one here in Tasmania. I’ll bet you have the most luscious small fruits as well as stone and pome fruits, we’ve just about finished picking our pears with the Comice variety being a favorite. Our lives have several other parallels–my husband and I also have undergraduate biology degrees but I took the path of medicine (which I abandoned after my internship, long story short I was completely disenchanted with the system) and he became an academic and now teaching gross anatomy at the med school here. We emigrated from the States to Australia 23 years ago and made a new life in the country on 4 acres, our village has a population of about 300. And guess what, I am also of Chinese descent (not too surprising given there are about 1.5 billion of us). I do understand how culture, even several generations removed, can color our perspectives and that may also play a great part in overshoot denial. As you know, Chinese philosophy places great emphasis on duty and obligation towards the older generations, and greater prosperity along with longevity are always the most noble goals. This necessarily means a unwavering belief in the continuation of the family and society with ever increasing affluence, which also equates to security. These entrenched ideals are in diametric opposition to what we are facing now, and with China seemingly on the unstoppable ascendancy, and their burgeoning middle class ripe for a materialistic Western lifestyle, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to deflate this bubble until the bubble completely bursts, which bubbles have a penchant for doing! I am an only child and my 75 year old Chinese mother lives with us, in a separate dwelling on the property (shades of Joy Luck Club !) and although she is somewhat aware that something is wrong with the world, her main priority now is to enjoy life as much as she can for that is her perceived due after all the hard work she’s put in. Logically, the concept of overshoot is understandable, but somehow it doesn’t apply to her or it doesn’t matter because she’s older and only one person trying to enjoy her retirement years, how much harm can she do? My very patient and understanding (but oft frustrated) husband and I are just trying to live our lives around this fact, too. All the best to you and look forward to chatting again.

          Like

          Reply

  10. Interesting essay by Kurt Cobb on the US desire to be more self-sufficient.
    I’m thinkin’ they’re gonna have to print some more money.

    The development of additional capacity could still take years to bring to fruition. There is no quick way to develop mines and the infrastructure around them short of a complete government takeover that requires no private investment and ignores costs and possibly safety and environmental requirements.

    And, that brings us to one of the major obstacles to national self-sufficiency. We have created a system that is based almost exclusively on private economic actors who must convince private investors to plow money into any mining project. And, the market for minerals is generally worldwide so world prices govern which deposits will be viable.

    That means that high-cost domestic deposits are never developed or, if developed, fail miserably when prices fall. The sad story of the rare earths Mountain Pass mine in California is instructive. This high-cost problem would imply that national self-sufficiency (or least reduced dependence on imports) would require ongoing price supports for the domestically mined minerals we deem most critical. No one is talking about that, and I doubt they ever will because it runs counter to the free-market laissez-faire ideology of those currently in charge of the world economy. And these leaders cannot yet fully imagine a world where de-globalization continues far into the future.

    http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2022/04/easier-said-than-done-national-self.html

    Like

    Reply

  11. Interesting comment by Steve St. Angelo @ POB.

    Many of you may have already seen this chart of the Global Oil Production Profile WITH and WITHOUT Debt. This chart came from one of Nate Hagen’s YouTube videos.

    I bring this to the attention of the group for discussion because I believe the dynamics of Debt are overlooked in regard to the oil industry and overall economy. Nate suggests that debt has brought on unconventional, unprofitable oil (in BLACK) and also brought forward oil from the future to increase production on an annual basis (say to 100 mbd) than would have been otherwise if debt was not used.

    Global debt has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis from $150 trillion to $300 trillion. With the world now reaching RESOURCE LIMITS, it seems to me that growth is over and with rising “REAL INTEREST RATES” a lot of this debt is not serviceable or sustainable. Thus, we soon see the Debt Bubble Burst.

    This would be bad for the Oil Industry because one person’s debt is another person’s asset. When Debt and Assets POP, then investment in the oil industry grinds to a halt or declines considerably.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-january-production-drop-surprises/#comment-737953

    Like

    Reply

  12. Geert Vanden Bossche has a new paper out.

    https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/predictions-gvb-on-evolution-c-19-pandemic

    I SERIOUSLY expect that a series of new highly virulent and highly infectious SARS-CoV-2 (SC-2) variants will now rapidly and independently emerge in highly vaccinated countries all over the world and that they will soon spread at high pace. I expect the current pattern of repetitive infections and relatively mild disease in vaccinees to soon aggravate and be replaced by severe disease and death. Unfortunately, there is no way vaccinees can rely on assistance from their innate immune system to protect against coronaviruses1 as their relevant2 innate IgM antibodies are increasingly being outcompeted by infection-enhancing vaccinal Abs, which are continuously recalled due to the circulation of highly infectious Omicron variants. In contrast, Omicron’s high infectiousness would enable the non-vaccinated to train their innate immune defense against SC-2 while the infectious and pathogenic capacity of the new SC-2 variants would be debilitated in the non-vaccinated for lack of infection-enhancing Abs in their blood. Unless we immediately implement large scale antiviral prophylaxis campaigns in highly vaccinated countries, there shall be no doubt that the pandemic will end by taking a huge toll on human lives.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Good morning to you Rob, it’s actually quite late at night here (or very early morning) and once again I find myself drawn to your site like a moth to the flame! This is sobering news indeed, and however we’ve been primed for it, it still sends shivers. As an ancillary to this topic and at the same time quite relevant to ongoing discussions of population control, have you come across this fellow A Midwestern Doctor? Yes, he’s a recent addition to my Substack collection, it’s like Pokemon cards! He’s totally not overshoot aware (in the end of this post he claims the Earth has capacity to support 40 billion people??!!) but before you throw the baby out with the bathwater, I think you’ll find what he has collated to be eye-opening and more than a bit frightening. His other posts, connecting the smallpox legacy and Anthrax vaccine to our Covid crisis are equally horrifying retrospectives into our dark history. I think he means well to release these truths and they are worth looking at, if for nothing other than assembling more pieces to the puzzle. But this latest from Geert VB is stuff of nightmares, and with that I’m going to sleep! All the best.

      https://amidwesterndoctor.substack.com/p/the-history-of-population-control?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo1MDY2MTI1MCwicG9zdF9pZCI6NTE1MDU5MjMsIl8iOiJrbWV1eSIsImlhdCI6MTY0OTAwMDc2MiwiZXhwIjoxNjQ5MDA0MzYyLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNzQ4ODA2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.qd7zGE6PRdyoiV6HvbGlMnFVvnvnmpG9aY00NWweSy4&s=r

      Like

      Reply

      1. Thanks Gaia. I skimmed the essay by A Midwestern Doctor and was not impressed or persuaded by his arguments. My understanding of the history he discusses is in most cases 180 degrees different.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Yeah, to say the least it’s not the most robust and validated piece but I suppose the reason I got a bit excited was just the the juxtaposition of following the threads of population control from the last page and tying it in with the current and unfolding Covid debacle. My take away message was that it was good to be reminded of the precedent that governments around the world have engaged in malfeasance to involuntarily sterilize those considered expendable or deplorable to achieve expedient goals. The system which can make and enforce these decisions for someone else is the same one that can decide we are that someone now. Every prior intervention unleashed upon various populations pales in scope of domain to this greatest human experiment bundled as the Covid “emergency” which has seen 11.3 billion doses of inoculations given as of today and counting. I am by far more staggered and concerned at this point to see this number keep climbing than by the unrelenting ticking over of the world population clock. I just can’t shake the feeling that these two are interconnected and we are about to witness a harrowing denouement. By the pricking of my thumbs, Something wicked this way comes.

          Like

          Reply

    2. Rob,
      I read some of his paper. My problem is that Bossche seems knowledgeable but I thought early on he was postulating very virulent variants and then we had Delta and Omicron which seemed to be progressively less virulent. As I remember from my microbiology classes years ago, viruses have a tendency to evolve less virulence over time. I know that Bossche disputed that and he is far more knowledgeable than I. I hope he is wrong (having made the personal mistake of getting the vax). I have avoided having any boosters and maybe have some of my immune system left. At this point all I think that one can do is, as Chris Martenson says, prepare the terrain (take vit. D, quercetin, NAC, not be obese, and not be old (whoops failed that one)).
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I’m also not confident about Bossche’s predictions, but he is an experienced expert and seems to have good ethics and no conflicts of interest. If I had to guess there’s a large element of chance in whatever happens next with the virus.

        Like

        Reply

        1. My synopsis on COVID:

          The virus was not as bad as initially feared, and later, not as bad as commonly assumed.
          The vaccines were not as safe as advertised, or commonly assumed, but I predict also not as dangerous as the most skeptically minded feared. (i.e. not a “kill shot” set to depopulate the globe)
          The ADE fears and mutations seem to be proving not as serious as feared by the most skeptical

          Meaning I expect the affair to be memory-holed this year, because humans are insane and nobody can admit when they overreact. We have two modes: Hysteria or denial. And which one we collectively choose is a social phenomena.

          Liked by 2 people

          Reply

        2. Hi there fellow Covid detectives, hope you are all well.
          I appreciate all the thoughts and having many minds looking at the evidence does help put the picture in clearer focus. I think we’re still in the early phases of this experiment and just from the sheer scope of it, the possible consequences of this novel virus and the unprecedented response to it, has the ability to be world altering, as already been shown. Global lockdowns, mandates, and such have forced us to see the truth that our precarious human rights are something to be granted and earned.
          Whilst we humans have definite preferences for what is desirable for life, viruses do not, at least in the self-directed sense. I think the possible misconception that most people have is that the virus is actively seeking to be more infectious and/or virulent, I understand these are two related but different concepts, one being how easily it can spread amongst hosts and the other how easily sick the host can become, the degree of virulence refers to how severe the illness in terms of upsetting homeostasis of the organism. The virus is not purposely doing either, it just is and by hijacking the host’s replicating mechanism, it has the possibility of continuing as is or mutating into another form which may become a more efficient and effective version of something which has the possibility of being recopied. I think the point that Geert VB and others are trying to make, at least how I interpret it, is that because we are in a pandemic formation, the virus has gadzillion opportunities for mutating within hosts, as every true infection case generates umpteen viral load and there are bound to be significant mutations in the copying process, and since the viral genome is limited, even few changes can be significant in terms of altering the phenotype (how the virus physically looks, which relates to how it binds receptors and effects potential cascade of immune response, this is usually what we experience as symptoms). So, although so far the variants seem to effect a more mild symptomatology, ie less virulent (for the most part, many official Covid symptoms cannot be differentiated from the common cold, as per the UK), they are markedly more infectious, as evidenced by the huge rise in positive cases, the latest being the “son of Omicron”, BA.2 So far, nothing new here in the history of pandemics, but this time, we’ve mass inoculated (11.4 billion doses) with what is not a sterilizing vaccine, and therefore, by whatever mechanism (ADE, original antigenic sin), the virus is still able to infect and show some virulency, although mild. The crux of the matter is that the virus is still able to be kept circulating in a great segment of the world population, and thus given more chances to mutate with each successful symptomatic infection, however mild. It’s a pure numbers game that eventually, there will arise a virion in a person or population that will be the next superspreading locus with a different enough genetic code to be the “right” combination of infectivity and homeostasis disruption to be a candidate for the next dominant variant. Because the worldwide viral load at any one point in time is still so great, even if a more deadly virus arises and burns itself out in the usual way, it will still wreak havoc in terms of excess morbidity and mortality, and in the process overwhelm the health system which will lead to more M and M. It is clear by now, even for the US FDA who had a meeting today to decide future vaccine strategies, that the current ones have no power over the variants. We must consider that these novel mRNA and vector DNA vaccines have perhaps prolonged the pandemic indefinitely or at least changed the course. By the UK numbers, the vaccine efficacy is abominably negative compared to the rates of infection of the unvaccinated across all age groups (and here in Australia that is also abundantly clear, we’ve had huge spikes in cases and we’re supposed to be a highly vaccinated population, reaching 95% for over 12s, so it can’t be the unvaccinated who are driving the nearly 5 million cases, most of them since Omicron surfaced and after the majority of population only recently double vaccinated). We can look at it as the virus being increased in infectivity, or the host somehow being more susceptible to infection, so far, we have all been hammered with Omicron being an outrageously infectious agent, but what if there is another mechanism also at play? So that begs the question, is the immune modulation effect of these vaccines actually making the host more susceptible to this virus, and it happens that this particular variant can be cleared more easily by the immune system or at least presenting more typical coronaviral symptoms (perhaps a point in favour of the inoculation for being able to call the immune system into high alert, albeit temporarily, however, I am thinking that possibly any injection or even a recent upper respiratory infection by another coronavirus would effect the same). In my background research, I came to understand that all previous coronavirus vaccine attempts in animal studies led to the conclusion that eventually, the host became susceptible to repeated coronavirus infections which weakened their immune response. It is still early to say whether our highly inoculated populations who have gotten Covid will be repeatedly vulnerable to the variants or other coronaviruses, but that seems to be the general direction public health is suggesting in making ready new variant boosters. I just found in today’s news in Australia that it does seem to be the case, more and more people are getting re-infected with Omicron, even though it has only been 3 months since the initial waves of infection. It seems that those who were naïve to the virus who got the infection before vaccination and remained unvaccinated are more secure in their natural immunity to SARS-CoV2. In a landmark study early this year, for the first time, healthy, Covid naïve, unvaccinated young people were challenged exposed to the virus and only half tested positive, and of those, some were asymptomatic and the remainder only got mild symptoms. Now scientists have suddenly discovered that this rarefied group of the unvaccinated are worthy study subjects for what might be going right with their immune systems! So, perhaps the real question should be what has changed in the inoculated host’s immune system that is not only increasing susceptibility to the virus but also allowing for repeat infection, even after a short refractory period. This is an unprecedented result for an intervention meant to train the host to evade and mitigate infection. This is a main concern for me, as much or more so than the possibility of a more virulent strain emerging (which in my understanding is a pure numbers game with time), because with a possible ineffective immune response to coronavirus as the common denominator, then the host will inevitably be weakened over time with repeat exposure and infection to any strain of SARS-CoV2, however it presents.

          I stumbled through Geert VB’s paper (I seem to be a gestalt person in understanding main concepts and his level of technical explanation is challenging but of course necessary) and found his conclusion that all highly vaccinated populations be given prophylactic antiviral medication immediately to assist the host in eradicating the virus before it can take hold and continue to have a base for mutation and spread to be at once alarming but logically arrived at. This rather drastic suggestion follows our usual human thing of trying to correct one misjudgement with yet another intervention, well meaning or not, most likely it will not re-balance whatever process is already well underway and may well have even more unforeseen consequences. But I believe we can all agree that continued mass vaccinations with an ineffectual agent be immediately ceased. And my mantra has been a broken record for the need to strengthen our immune systems, that is our first, middle, last, and only defence for anything that might upset our homeostatic balance.

          Best immune status wishes to all, with a little help from sunshine, sleep, nutrition and connection with nature and our communities which I am grateful to say now includes this one!

          Like

          Reply

          1. Thank you Gaia for bringing some clarity to a complicated topic. I agree with your conclusion. It is beyond comprehension why leaders would push for more of a complex solution that does not help and that does some harm, while ignoring low risk, low cost, effective responses like vitamin D and Ivermectin.

            Like

            Reply

          2. I’m not sure I see the logic in claiming vaccines have prolonged the pandemic. This may happen if the immunity they provide is better than the immunity obtained by natural infection, since that would slow the spread. But even the unvaccinated can be infected multiple times, including by different variants. So long as people can be infected, there are chances for new more virulent variants to arise.

            Regarding variants, you seem to say that all variants have coincidentally be less virulent than the original virus but I don’t think that’s the case. Certainly, omicron appears less virulent though I don’t know the latest stats on long-Covid.

            Like

            Reply

      2. I think Bosche is right in respect of there being no reason for virus to evolve to a less virulent state. There is even less likelihood of this with SARS-Cov-2 since it is most infectious just before symptoms start, so the virus has already done its spreading before it is having severe consequences for its host. Regarding vaccines promoting dangerous variants, I’m highly skeptical of that since all of the dominant variants so far have emerged either before vaccines were widely available or in countries where vaccination was low.

        Like

        Reply

        1. Hi there Mike, hope all is going well on your end of town (or country). Rob introduced me to el gato malo who seems a genius with statistical analysis of all things Covid in a well founded and slightly snarky manner. Rob, I don’t think I thanked you for that properly, but it has been a revelatory resource as the others you’ve shared. Today the bad cat is back with some bad observations that ties in with our own discussion, in my opinion, one of the most alarming he/she has posted. It looks like what Geert VB and others have been crying Cassandra for the past two years is unfolding in a dramatically apparent way. This is really feeling like a scary movie that we’re watching in real-time, only it’s not something that will go away when we turn on the lights. Every new variant is another go at Russian roulette.

          I’m pretty sure Rob will flag this post, but here it is as well:

          https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/covid-is-becoming-increasingly-vaccine?s=r

          Any thoughts on how to ride out this storm amongst all the others if and when the variants overtake us? Here in Australia, the variant Deltacron has landed and it will be very interesting (instead of a more pessimistic term) to see what happens to our highly vaxxed population as we head into winter. However, that being said, despite our being in summer when Vit D levels should naturally be the highest even in the unsupplemented, we were decimated by Omicron, at least in numbers of infections if not overt morbidity/mortality. If these dire predictions are corret, more and more people will be suffering a myriad of symptoms and conditions that will be termed long Covid, regardless the mechanism of their retreating immune status.

          Another think I have had since the beginning relating to Rob’s question of why and how China is dealing with the pandemic (see eugyppius post) and still pursuing a no-Covid policy with draconian effect. Does it strike anyone as interesting (that’s my word of the day) that they have inoculated their billion plus population not with an mRNA or DNA vector vaccine but a traditional inactivated virus one, either SinoVac or Sinopharm. And why did we in the western world not get a choice for this one, but only offered (that’s a loaded term) the experimental genetic modulating ones?

          China’s continued stance of keeping Covid of any variant to minimal levels despite the world now just letting it rip may signal something they know but we don’t, yet. After all, it was in China that it began, and I would be willing to bet that they have more of a clue how and perhaps why. Their reaction now is precisely what Geert VB has suggested to do chemically, instead of mass antivirals to stop the virus from finding hosts to spread, maybe they are trying to use these drastic lockdowns to break the chain so more variants aren’t created within their population. It could be that the Chinese and all the populations that have used the traditional inactivated virus vaccine will be our hope for herd immunity for SARS CoV2. The plot thickens.

          Stay well and curious, friends.

          Like

          Reply

          1. LOL, you beat me to the punch. I was reading el gato’s post today and thought it was worth mentioning here. It seems possible we’re in a lull before another storm.

            You make excellent observations about China. Their behavior is very curious. I think Chinese leaders are much less stupid than our western leaders. Let’s watch.

            My personal plan remains unchanged. I’m trying to stay healthy and am keeping my supplies topped up in case I need to avoid public spaces for a prolonged period. Same plan works for possible food shortages later this year.

            Like

            Reply

          2. That link suggests that the vaccinated are more at risk of being infected. However, here in New Zealand, the unvaccinated have been at about the same risk of becoming a case as those with more than 1 dose. This is for cases, which is not a very accurate number, especially now that RATs are the predominant way of checking for cases. A couple of points about those numbers is that a study in Australia suggested that the unvaccinated are less likely to be tested even if symptomatic, and the fact that, until recently, only the fully vaccinated were able to mix, relatively freely, with others whilst not masked. It will be interesting to see how this comparison evolves now that vaccine passes have been largely abolished. Interestingly, the partially vaccinated (1 dose) are about half as likely as the unvaccinated to become a case, and both of those groups could not participate in activities that required a vaccine pass. If one looks at hospitalisations, the unvaccinated are way over represented, compared to the vaccinated (about 4 times the boosted rate of hospitalisations), although the publicly available data on this are not good quality, so I wouldn’t bet anything on that comparison.

            Like

            Reply

  13. Well I spoke to soon. Everybody caught it and all except me are now on the mend. I was the last to fall and ran a fever all night and generally feel lethargic and don’t feel like doing much. Hopefully feeling better tomorrow. Feels like a mild hangover. I’ve had worse.

    Like

    Reply

    2. I trust you’ll bounce back soon, and glad to hear everyone else is better now. You may be interested to know that just today the UK added 9 new items to the official Covid symptom list, and you ticked off several of them. Would you believe that one of the official symptoms for Covid is now “feeling sick” and another is “a blocked or runny nose”. How’s that for specificity? The NHS website apparently did state that “The symptoms are very similar to symptoms of other illnesses such as colds or flu”. Meanwhile, their case numbers are skyrocketing again (their Office for National Statistics said 1 in 13 people in the UK had the virus the previous week, such is the efficacy of the vaccines) so the best thing to do is obviously stop the free testing (the program ends today) which will naturally bring the numbers down quick smart. I know it’s a few days past the first of this month but I am wondering who is the fool here. In case you want some light relief, here’s the Guardian article.

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/04/uk-covid-symptoms-list-expanded-with-nine-more-signs-of-illness

      When you’re recovered and want a bit of a diversion, you’re most welcome to swing by our place in Glen Huon. The autumn colours are peaking just about now. We even have several Sugar Maples (originally planted to tap for maple syrup and the trees are finally up to size to start doing a first tap but we haven’t gotten around to it, it seems like quite the production) so there’s our shout out to Rob and O Canada!

      Like

      Reply

    3. My whole family was also affected by Covid mid of March. I had the same lethargic feeling as you desribed but in general nobody in our family was at the brink of going to the hospital.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    1. IPCC say “greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025” – I think we can manage that but just doing nothing at waiting for the diesel to run out

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. wow that was bad writing on my part *I think we can manage that by just doing nothing and waiting for the diesel to run out

        Like

        Reply

  16. It’s becoming more and more clear to me that regardless of intelligence, education, or expertise, if a person does not understand limits to growth and overshoot they understand nothing about what is going on in the world today, nor what we should be doing in response.

    Today I listened to 3 different discussions by very smart, truth seeking people:
    1) Michael Green, Hugh Hendry and Tom Roderick discussing the economy.
    2) Whitney Webb et. al. debating the Great Reset.
    3) George Gammon & David Collum discussing world affairs.

    All of them know something big is going on, and all of them are flailing around making up crazy explanations because their brain’s genetic denial prevents them from seeing overshoot and the end of growth.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Your point is well taken – their are so many factors at work. Denial, ego appeal of having esoteric answers, identity appeal of having shared group beliefs, management of death fears.

      On the Gammon/Cullum discussion I particularly enjoyed the discussion around 18-20 minutes about Hegellian dialectics playing out in society as opposed to a “they.” Very similar to Gail T’s “self-organizing complexity.”

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    2. Indeed. I get the same feeling whenever I hear about 10 year, 30 year and 50 year plans for various societies, technologies and so on. Oddly (as I’d hope for more objectivity), even science magazines fall into that trap – one even said recently that we need more green growth!

      Like

      Reply

  17. Thanks to Hole in Head @ POB for finding this hilarious piece by Dmitry Orlov. Our western leaders once again demonstrate they’re not very bright.

    Europe doesn’t have any contracts for Russian natural gas

    I promised to stop writing on this subject until something significant happened, and an entire day went by without anything significant, but now there’s this. German-language media has already been going crazy lately about future purchases of oil and natural gas. Since Germany is included in the list of “unfriendly countries” by Russia, it, like all the EU states, will only be allowed to purchase Russian natural gas for rubles, and not for euros or US dollars. And now comes this bit of news, which should make the German talking heads go super-double-crazy: Germany will be left without Russian gas because its contract is not with Gazprom but with its subsidiary Gazprom Germany, which Gazprom has abandoned.

    Barely a day or two ago, German officials were loudly declaring that their contract with Gazprom provides for payment in euros or dollars, and therefore Germany will not pay for Russian gas in rubles. That ought to make everything perfectly clear. However, Germany’s gas supply contract is with Gazprom Germania GmbH, located in Berlin, and not with actual Gazprom, headquartered in St. Petersburg! Do the German authorities even know that these are two completely different organizations?

    Gazprom Germania GmbH is the headquarters of the diversified conglomerate Gazprom Germania Group, which includes 40 enterprises operating in more than 20 countries in Europe, Asia and North America. Until Friday, it was a 100% subsidiary of the Russian Gazprom. On Friday, Gazprom pulled out of Gazprom Germania and no longer has anything to do with its former Berlin subsidiary. With that, Gazprom Germania has lost any connection to Russian gas. Worse yet, it is believed to be insolvent and likely to go bankrupt within a few weeks, at which point it will be liquidated. All of its customers will now be forced to buy gas from Gazprom Russia and it pay in… rubles. No rubles—no gas!

    Having imposed anti-Russian sanctions as demanded of it by Washington, Germany has already frozen Russian foreign exchange reserves. The country’s largest gas storage facility in Rehden (Lower Saxony) is only 0.5% full—an all-time low. Until this Friday, this vault, as well as a number of other facilities located at key points in Germany’s energy infrastructure, indirectly belonged to Russia’s Gazprom—but not any more! If earlier the German government threatened to nationalize Russian gas assets on its territory, now such threats have become hollow. Germany has nothing more that it can threaten to steal from Russia to force it to keep the gas flowing.

    Instead, Germany’s representatives now have to fly to St. Petersburg and negotiate a new deal with Gazprom directly, in rubles. Except that they can’t do that either! According to the Energy Charter and the Third Energy Package of the European Union, every single supplier of energy resources to the EU is required to be part of the EU legal system—perhaps not directly, but definitely through subsidiaries such as Gazprom Germania GmbH. Thus, all of Gazprom’s contracts with buyers from the European Union were signed by Gazprom Germania GmbH and its other subsidiaries. It could not have been otherwise, for otherwise the contracts would be outside the jurisdiction of the European Union and the Europeans considered this unacceptable.

    But now the Europeans will need to come to Russia and sign contracts under Russian law, with payment stipulated in rubles. Of course, the European Commission will never agree to this… and now we have to wait impatiently to see just quickly this “never” will come to an end.

    By the way, Rosneft Deutschland, the German subsidiary of the Russian oil giant Rosneft, is now also an orphan. It seems that Russia’s former partners (now “unfriendly nations”) are being moved not just to the gas ruble, but also to the petroruble. Given the current shortage of diesel fuel in Europe, the prospect of a petroruble is becoming much clearer than Europe would like.

    https://boosty.to/cluborlov

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  18. Thanks to hillcountry @ OFW for finding what appears to be an important paper explaining the mechanism that makes ivermectin effective against covid.

    Nice to see there are still a few scientists with integrity.

    Conclusions

    Attachments of glycans on SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to RBCs and to other blood cells and endothelial cells may be central to the microvascular morbidities of COVID-19. An in vitro experiment is proposed to test these attachments, in particular the binding considered here between spike protein glycans and SA terminal residues of GPA surface molecules on RBCs, possibly with a further linkage provided by anti-RBD antibodies. If hemagglutination is found to occur when SARS-CoV-2 trimeric spike protein is mixed with RBCs, possibly with anti-RBD antibody required as well, further insight can be provided by testing the capability of the macrocyclic lactone, IVM, to block these attachments through competitive binding.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8910562/

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  19. Very interesting documentary on the corn supply chain. Note the system’s dependence on abundant affordable energy for machines and fertilizer. Also note the system’s fragility to a disruption in the supply of advanced technology parts. Finally, note the dependence on stable weather.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Thanks Rob for sharing that exposition of modern corn farming, ironically entitled “The Incredible Efficiency of”. I know it was probably meant to impress the viewer on the agricultural prowess of the US but I was increasingly transfixed by horror as everything I saw in the process just leads us down the path of doom, every kernel seemed to represent another drop of oil gone. The so-called soil, no more than just a substrate, seems completely devoid of a thriving microbiome and such as it is, depleted year on year. There is little honor and life-affirming joy in bringing forth sustenance; the only aim is profit and productivity. If this is what it takes to feed humans via our livestock today, then we are another species removed from the days when Native peoples in that same area planted the time-honored Three Sisters of corn, beans, and squash in great harmony with the land, without fossil fuels nor even draft animal labor. I truly wonder if we can ever get back to that almost mythical time, even as we must.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  20. Eugyppius weighs in on why the Chinese have locked down Shanghai.

    In summary, why speculate on a complex diabolical plan to harm the west when simple stupidity suffices.

    We’ve spent many months speculating about Chinese reasons for locking down Hubei and then promoting lockdowns to the rest of us. While malicious ends shouldn’t be excluded, their behaviour in Shanghai points increasingly to official incompetence and stupidity. The Chinese government has almost surely spent two years sowing horror of Corona among its people, to defend its harsh actions in Wuhan and to collect accolades for its alleged Zero Covid success. Now they are going the route of other Zero Covid regimes. They will double down on worthless policies, until their failure becomes so overwhelmingly evident, that they give up.

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/why-are-the-chinese-losing-their?s=r

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  21. I’m not recommending you waste any time watching this but it is a breathtaking example of reality denial focused on telling young people they are not doomed.

    They of course do not mention the broader context of overshoot nor the need for rapid populaiton reduction.

    1.3M views in less than a day. Everybody loves denial.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  23. When I was a young man it was normal to have recessions and they served to purge unsustainable excesses. Over the last 2 decades our leaders have done everything in their power to prevent a purge because our system is now one big unsustainable excess.

    I expect one of these days Mac10’s often repeated warnings will come true. The intensity of his warnings has increased as the pressure within our system has increased, which is what happens when you try to deny the end of growth.

    https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-brick-wall-of-more.html

    THE BRICK WALL OF “MORE”

    An intelligent life form dropping in from Outer Space would in no way believe the Titanic scale of infantile bullshit being bought and believed at this dire juncture. Only a society in late stage dementia could buy the current ludicrous promises being made about the future. The “solution” to our environmental catastrophe is coming straight at us – it’s the brick wall of “More”, which was financed for over a decade at 0% and is now facing facing imminent global margin call…

    “U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change revealed “a litany of broken climate promises” by governments and corporations, accusing them of stoking global warming by clinging to harmful fossil fuels.

    “It is a file of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put us firmly on track toward an unlivable world”

    I used to worry about climate change. It was at the top of my list of existential worries. But since the pandemic, I finally realized all of this risk is outside of my span of control. The pandemic caused the largest collapse in carbon output in our lifetimes. It was temporary, but it showed the potential for what can happen when a species is preoccupied solely with personal preservation. After all, the pandemic was relatively innocuous. The U.S. states that had the lowest vaccination rates, the worst healthcare, and non-existent social distancing measures all fared just fine. By any account Alabama should have imploded. But they’re still fat and happy. We were warned that our consumption-oriented way of life was ending, so what did we do, we went on a biblical scale consumption binge.

    The pandemic and associated lockdown drove a consumption preference from services to durable goods. This consumption shift combined with the supply chain disruptions, caused inventories to become depleted. As a response retailers began double ordering and they abandoned just in time inventory techniques. This accelerated the “hyperinflationary” hysteria that fueled inordinate above-trend demand. As we see below, it was A MASSIVE consumption binge that is only now starting to abate as evidenced by recent declines in trucker freight rates.

    …Meanwhile, during this hyperinflationary consumption orgy, the Fed was busy inflating their asset bubble to record levels across every risk asset class on the planet. So now they are slamming on the brakes at the fastest rate in history, which we see below via the thirty year mortgage % change. Of course this is all the PERFECT recipe for total economic collapse. And the first order effect will be financial collapse and credit crisis, both of which already started in Q1.

    Aiding and abetting this disaster in progress, are all of today’s financial pundits who are convincing people to ignore all risk. They have succeeded in convincing the masses that they can ride out a global depression, by hiding in stocks. These pundits have universally been fooled into believing that inflation is the biggest long-term problem facing stocks. None are more deluded than the Fed themselves who are now moving into what I call “Stage 2” global meltdown.

    Below we see via momentum stocks, this was the level of decline at which the Fed pivoted to a dovish stance in 2018. Then in 2019, the Fed cut rates 3 times AND expanded their balance sheet due to the repo market dysfunction.

    This time, they’re going for FULL meltdown.

    In summary, what’s coming is what I call B.S. reduction. There is far too much hot air on this planet right now and most of it is emanating from proven psychopaths.

    What this all points to is a hard landing at the zero bound. A non-existent monetary interest rate buffer to offset the fastest demand collapse in world history.

    Japanification.

    Which means ZERO economic growth long term.

    And a stock market that can be RENTED, but never OWNED. Because one thing this society will learn the hard way is in the end we are all just renters anyways.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Is this guy credible? I have tried to read quite a few posts of him now. There are a lot of graphs where something goes up and something goes down, with some peaks marked, but they are not well explained for someone not versed in economics, the content is more or less incomprehensible for me. I am also missing some advice on how to manage an upcoming crisis.

      Like

      Reply

        1. Agreed, Mac10 knows far more about finance than I do. . .but I do think he is correct that the “inflation story” is fundamentally wrong. I think he posits that we have an asset bubble and inflation is just a short term thing (due to the Fed printing lots of money and Washington giving away lots of money during Covid lockdowns(money we don’t have)). He anticipates the mother of all asset collapses when the debt fueled bubble bursts. I agree with Rob, he doesn’t understand/or acknowledge overshoot. Plus he doesn’t seem to acknowledge that the Fed has to save the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency (if they can??) rather than save the market.
          I could be wrong – as finance is not my forte.
          AJ

          Like

          Reply

      2. I have read/watched 1000s of hours worth of market commentary since January 2020……the only analyst I have found that has called it right….again and again….is Gregory Mannarino….he posts 2 videos per weekday on Youtube…and a markets look ahead video on Sundays…..

        He’s a straight shooter…funny as hell…..worth giving a chance to….. in my opinion….

        Like Mac10 he is sure that the mother of all crashes is coming….but not yet…..he watches the debt market primarily, and the 10yr yield in particular …for signs of trouble…..and until the debt market implodes…..there is money to be made in the stock market…

        As a hedge against debt market implosion/currency collapse he suggests holding “anti-debt units”…number one of those being physical silver…followed by physical gold….and yes, cryptocurrencies….

        To Rob M: kudos to you for keeping the website going!…..one of the best sidebars around…..do you still pay attention to the work of Paul Arbair or Jean Marc Jancovici?

        Like

        Reply

        1. Thanks for the tip! I’ll start following Mannarino.

          I’ve lost touch with Arbair. Has he done any good work recently?

          I still follow Jancovici but most of his work and interviews of late have been in his native French language.

          Like

          Reply

              1. Nice job and nice to be reminded….. that public intellectuals once existed…..who weren’t sanctimonious twats!!

                Like

                Reply

        2. I get the sales brochure from a “controversal” German publishing house. There is a section about economic issues. Every book in this section seems to hint at the crash of all crashes since I got the sales brochure the first time years ago. Therefore, I am critical of people, who take this position, even though I must admit, that I somehow agree with them based on my knowlegde on ressource depletion.

          Like

          Reply

          1. You are right. A lot of people have been expecting a crash for 10+ years. Me included.

            I was unable to imagine they would create trillions and trillions of taxpayer backed debt that any reality aware person would know can never be repaid from energy constrained growth. Then I studied Varki’s MORT and understood my error.

            Like

            Reply

  24. Alice Friedemann today with a summary of her research on how governments might respond to an energy crisis.

    https://energyskeptic.com/2022/energy-certificates-as-currency-when-oil-shocks-strike/

    I am sure that politicians and other government experts at all levels are aware of peak oil. You can see that clearly in the congressional hearings, from the military, and the Hirsch (2005) report on Peak oil for the Department of energy (see all posts at category Experts, topic Government here or by subtopics). For example, see my post on Oil ShockWave. I summarized an executive crisis simulation that illustrated the strategic dangers of oil dependence by confronting a mock U.S. cabinet with highly geopolitical crises that trigger sharp increases in oil prices. They had to grapple with the economic and strategic consequences of this ‘oil shock’ and formulate a response plan for the nation. Spoiler alert: they didn’t come up with a plan, and worse yet, and the military argued that they should get all the oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. To do what? Start a war in the Middle East and waste our last drops of oil?

    I’ve had a hard time finding plans to cope with an energy crisis. I suspect they’re top secret within the military and Homeland Security. But recently I discovered that the governors of most states have energy crisis plans, though not all states do, and they vary in what the governor can do and is expected to do in order to cope. I’m working on the California plan now, but it is terribly out of date, from 2014, and the plan is to anticipate shortages and scramble to buy supplies to avert an energy crisis. If the grid goes down, utilities are expected to have plans for mutual aide from out-of-state utilities. There’s some hope renewables can provide more power, but even in 2014 California was aware renewables would destabilize the grid and make additional natural gas plants essential (CEC 2014).

    Of course I should have figured out actions would take place at the state level, with the governor in charge. S(he) would then ask the Federal government for help, call in the national guard, already have a plan to get more energy, where vulnerable populations were, and contacts at the county and city level to do the actual work of opening shelters and providing food.

    But these state plans don’t mention rationing, because they aren’t planning for the Long Emergency. There is no planning for oil decline visible to the public, probably because the plans are too grim, perhaps involving preventing a Grapes of Wrath mass movement of millions to other states and cities. And dealing with the Four Horsemen who are likely to appear when oil shortages are beyond coping with.

    An oil shock is coming. I make the case for in “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the future of transportation”, that it is diesel shortages that are the most critical to resolve, since diesel trucks and engines plant, harvest, and deliver food, haul garbage, mine, log, and the rest of the hard work that needs being done.

    I’ve yet to find rationing plans for energy or food or anything else at the state level.

    But I think I know why…

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

      1. Heaven help us when we can’t get hold of Vegemite. That’ll really be a bad sign!

        Well I’m finally over the Rona. I think I took the longest in my family to get over it properly. Nearly a week. I ran quite a high temperature for three nights. One night I measured myself in the middle of the night and I was 40 degrees. No wonder I had trouble sleeping. Aside from that it wasn’t so bad. I’ve certainly had worse. All I’m left with is a bit of a blocked nose.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  26. Hi Perran,
    So glad to hear you’re good now and great that your taste buds certainly haven’t been affected if you’re craving plum sauce! Being an import myself, I’ve never used EZY sauce but I know plenty of local cooks who swear by it. They said in the article it contained cloves, black pepper and chili, but there’s probably proprietary ingredients for the secret sauce and of course the proportions need to be worked out. For what it’s worth, from my cooking experience, I found that fennel seeds add a lot of flavour, especially if you dry roast them a bit first. And I think for plum sauce, a touch of ginger (probably grated fresh is better than powder here), ground cardamon, and mixed spice (which would include clove and cinnamon) would go a long way to adding that extra zing, and I can’t go past adding grated orange zest (I think orange here is better than lemon), too. If you have sumac and smoked paprika, that would give it a bbq touch, those are my favourites for that extra layer of taste sensation. For the acidity, I would use balsamic vinegar or apple cider vinegar. For sweetness, I use coconut sugar but honey here would work well. And I think a touch of tamari or soy would be the perfect salt compound. The idea is balancing all the flavours our tongues can detect, sweet, sour, salty and that extra savoury component. Did you have a good plum harvest this year? Ours was only so-so, I think the extended early Spring rains kept the bees away at the critical time. But what we did get was good sized fruit, especially the Golden Drop and Green Gage plums. Hope you have a great lead up week to Easter, and just to make others who are tuning in around the globe jealous, shall we tell them of our 5 day weekend here? That’s right, we not only get Good Friday as a public holiday but also Easter Monday and get this, there’s also Easter Tuesday especially for Tasmanians! No, this is not the main reason we chose to move here, but it sure was a bonus when we learned of our luck the first year. Hope you and your boys have a great school holiday, too.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. I don’t know about Rob, but I like all our new commentators from south of the equator. It’s a nice perspective to see people enjoying the fruits of the harvest when we are trying to get out of winter and start planting. We had one day last week of 75 F and now have reverted to potentially winter again (likely snow and close to freezing for a week while all the fruit trees have just blossomed and leafed out), we should be mid to low 60 F about now. Don’t know about the southern jet stream but the northern one is/ or has been “readjusted” by climate change. It used to go mainly west to east with few a few small dips; now it has huge standing waves of north to south winds (with less west to east) that can fix an area with either abnormally hot or cold weather for weeks at a time. Agriculture is becoming more problematical.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    2. No our harvest of everything was way down this year. The only thing that had an ok crop was the pears. The cherries were light and what we had got destroyed by the rain in January. Plums and apricots were very light.
      We had snow on the ground in both September and November and we had a good frost in October. It wasn’t a good spring for setting fruit.

      Like

      Reply

  27. Thought I’d mention that I’ve read Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying’s book “A Hunter-Gatherer’s Guide to the 21st Century: Evolution and the Challenges of Modern Life”.

    Three times, which means I think it’s excellent and I recommend it.

    I was going to write a review criticizing them for being in denial about human overshoot despite being brilliant biologists that should understand overshoot, but after the 2nd read I think they get it but choose not to be as politically incorrect as we here at un-denial. They do seem oblivious to the energy scarcity threat, but that’s a prerequisite for being famous these days.

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/56883406-a-hunter-gatherer-s-guide-to-the-21st-century

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. After waiting 6 weeks or so, I am next on the wait list at the library to check it out. When I have read it I will let you know what I think. Thanks for the reccomendation.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    2. Thank you for the recommendation. This sounds like an intriguing book. It seems to be recommended quite often in the areas of the internet that I frequently visit.

      Like

      Reply

  28. So I went shopping today and a bag of three zucchini was almost four Euros when just few weeks to months they where around two Euros. I am/was fortunate enough that I don’t need to look at prices too closely but that kind of floored me to be honest. In regards to my zucchini situation, BAU is certainly over. But seriously, I really don’t know if we just hit another gear in our civilizatory demise or if things go back to usual. Maybe both?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. This is not a good example for rising prices. Based on my personal experience, vegetable prices seem to be very dynamic. Years ago, I already made rules for when a vegetable would be too expensive to buy, e.g. I did not buy paprika if the price went above 3€ per kg.

      Like

      Reply

      1. This was not a fancy market, it was at a German discounter (Aldi). If prices rise too much they would normally simply didn’t stock them.

        Like

        Reply

        1. I also don´t buy at fancy markets (mostly Kaufland), but I was not aware that Aldi does not stock vegetables if the prices rise too high. At Kaufland I have seen high prices for vegetables quite often, even the 4€ per kg for Zucchini. I can confirm that they are high at the moment, but I am not sure whether the prices will rise further based on my knowlegde of fluctuating vegetable prices.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Addendum: If we base this analysis on the idea that we have already crossed peak oil, I could envision that all agricultural products will become a lot more expensive soon.

            Like

            Reply

    2. Hi there fellow zucchini fans, that’s a lot of Euro for not much squash! Just to think at one point this summer I couldn’t give away zucchini fast enough, but this year we had an early frost and we’ve just finished the last of our crop. I will never take them for granted again (until next summer). Our favourite variety is Costata Romanesco which is a beautiful striped and ribbed Italian heirloom that has a delicious flavour and stays tender on the vine even if you’ve forgotten to pick it, you know, turn your back and next thing you know, it’s a monster. As a visual bonus, when you slice them, they make a lovely scalloped disc because of their ribbing. For all those northern hemisphere friends who have the space and are waiting for the days to warm up enough to start tomatoes, eggplant and peppers (we call them capsicums here), to complete your ratatouille, do try this variety this year, the seeds should be easily found.

      And now for some sobering news from another island, the multicultural jewel of Sri Lanka which by all parameters should be a thriving tropical paradise. Alas, it may be yet another canary in the coalmine for what is awaiting us with multiple collapse factors converging at once. Runaway government debt and inflation, supply chain and pandemic woes, leading to Sri Lanka’s 22 million residents suffering weeks of power blackouts and severe shortages of food, fuel and even lifesaving medicine in the country’s worst downturn since independence in 1948. The country is on the brink of political unrest with the PM urging patience as the people sometimes have to stand in line for 12 hours to fill up their gas tanks.
      What should make this even more worrisome is another factor which has led to this dramatic economic demise, apparently the government thought it feasible to turn the whole country into an organic isle and forbid the use of chemical fertilizer without any real idea how it would translate full scale. Six months after going organic, the country that was once self-sufficient in rice had to import $600 million (AUD) worth of foreign crop and the loss of yield in tea and rubber hammered the nail in the coffin for their economy. They have since reversed the ban on chemical fertilizers but the damage has already been done and the country has been overtaken by fallout events. So, this is a foretaste of what might happen if the world supply of urea diminishes due to fossil fuel shortage, I am recalled by Rob’s sidebar quote that “All 8 billion of us owe our existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact it rains; 6 billion of us also owe our existence to nitrogen fertilizer created from natural gas by Haber-Bosch factories”. Thanks Rob for suggesting “The Alchemy of Air” as another excellent read, until I did so, I had absolutely no clue of this critical process upon which modern agriculture depends. Now I really appreciate our excess zucchini and am already a tiny bit jealous that the seasons have changed and it’s your turn now to deal with them.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Very interesting. I was aware of Sri Lanka’s economic problems but had no idea that their organic policies were a contributing factor.

        I work on an organic farm and the organic certified inputs we use don’t look any less fragile or unsustainable to my eye than their non-organic counterparts. Then there is the plastic and metals we have no choice to use for greenhouse, irrigation, and fence construction. Plus the diesel and gasoline we depend on.

        I do think it is a very good idea to eliminate pesticides and herbicides from our food chain wherever possible. My research suggests some foods benefit more from organic status than others. For example, I only buy organic oats, potatoes, and strawberries.

        Like

        Reply

        1. So long as the crops grown organically are produced by the same system of large scale monoculture and the supply involves transport of thousands of kilometres, there isn’t much difference in the footprint, but nutritional and thus health benefits are measurable. Direct foraging in a permaculture based stacked food forest with in-situ inputs would be a more sustainable system but that would of course greatly limit our population just as all ecological webs find their level balance. I say more sustainable but not totally because from our experience, the initial input to set up even a small holding along some of these principles requires staggering amounts of energy (both human and fossil fuelled) and materials (more fossil fuelled). We’re talking dams and swales being dug by heavy machinery, bringing in tons of organic material initially, endless polypipe for irrigation and of course fencing. We consider having steel droppers to be equivalent to money in the bank. Then there’s pumping of water, you can’t get away from that if you don’t have a gravity gradient in your favour. All to try to replicate nature! It does seem that the beginning of agriculture was also the beginning of our doom in so many ways. But hopefully the trees we have planted and the terraforming we have done will outlast us many years and provide others who find the land with sustenance, and in time (if we are lucky to have it), actually become more self-sustaining.

          Like

          Reply

            1. That’s Australian for a steel post, in various lengths with pre-drilled holes along the length that you can easily pound into the ground for various applications like fencing, trellising, building. It’s also termed star picket which I suppose refers to the cross section which would be a + . Thank you for the encouragement to keep planting and experimenting with increasing soil fertility, not a bad way to finish up here.

              Like

              Reply

              1. Thanks. We use steel t-posts for fencing. They are 10′ long and shaped like a T with bumps down one side for securing the fence, but no holes. I just finished electrifying the last third of the perimeter fence to keep the bears out of the berries.

                Like

                Reply

          2. Yes, attempts to live sustainably in one place, trying to maintain current lifestyles perhaps, is doomed to failure, ultimately. However, I do like the idea of a windmill pumping water to a header tank to provide running water. Would like to get that going sometime soon. Of course, this isn’t sustainable, so a “natural” pond with some kind of filtration or solar distilling capacity for drinking water is desirable.

            Trees are key, though, so I wish you well with your set-up.

            Like

            Reply

            1. Hi Mike and all permies, I’m sure you’ve heard of a ram-type pump that uses the natural fall of a running creek to pump water up quite impressive heads? There are quite a few designs out now, an Australian one that we use is called the Bunyip Pump. https://bunyipwaterpumps.com
              Do you have such a situation you could tap into? There are minimum falls and flow rates to make it feasible, but even small amounts of water moved uphill 27/7 to a header tank or dam (Aussie for pond) can add up to an impressive volume which you could use gravity fed back down to wherever you need to direct the water. One of the main principles of permaculture that I’ve learned is to try to keep water on your property for as long as possible so it can totally charge the soil before draining away. Of course, standing water isn’t desirable, unless you may want to try growing rice or taro.
              As for trees, we’ve planted hundreds and they are the guardians of our homestead bringing life to body, mind, and spirit. If anyone is remotely interested, I will now divulge that our permaculture experiment actually has two sites, our home base in Tasmania which we began 23 years ago upon emigrating to Australia, and a subtropical one in the highlands of Far North Queensland which we started 10 years ago. This we began because I finally realised that the lack of sunshine, namely UVB, in Tassie in the winters was the main driver of a myriad of health symptoms I had every winter that completely reverse when I receive more intense sunlight, remarkably within hours of tropical strength UV, I feel like a charged battery. Both are about 4 acres, with a sloped aspect, and creek boundary, and about 10 km from the nearest small town. But there the similarities end for the climate and soil are as different as can be and thus our range of growing also transverses the spectrum. I go up the QLD for 3 months in the winter (this is the equivalent of Americans going to Florida) to tend the block whilst living out of a shed and soaking up the sun, it’s a real jungle but I love it, leeches, ticks, and all. Well, maybe I don’t love the blood suckers but we have come to an understanding. My husband stays in Tassie to hold down the fort (and keep the day job which fuels all of this) and he joins me during his annual holiday in the form of an intense work camp. Now you can throw tomatoes at me and rightfully so for my contribution to carbon pollution as I jet back and forth 3000 km and 25 degrees of latitude. Guilty as charged but my husband and I hope to plead clemency for not having children and also leaving behind two small but wholeheartedly intentioned landscapes which may provide sustenance for whomever will find it theirs to caretake. I almost think it’s all worth it just to know I now have had the delectable experience of growing our own mangoes as well as persimmons, both fruit of the gods.

              Like

              Reply

              2. Yeah, I know about ram pumps but don’t have running water on my land so can’t use that option (though that is also unsustainable, ultimately). I’d like a manual pump of sorts to at least get water out of a rain tank if necessary.

                I’d consider moving on to a better place but we had a hell of a problem finding this section (2 acres) and have had all sorts of problems with council on building 2 dwellings (for family) so I doubt I’d be able to persuade others to move again, not that I’m really young enough to consider it.

                Still, more trees is my main aim and persimmon will definitely be at least one of them!

                Like

                Reply

                1. Hi Mike, you’re right, this is not the best time to contemplate any sort of moving but rather hunkering down and making the best of what you’ve already got. Unless you find a property already set up for your family situation, which is becoming rare indeed as most of us like-minded people aren’t shifting either! I have an idea of what you’ve gone through with council–we also had to go through the red tape of getting permission to build another dwelling on our property as my mother lives in the original house and my husband and I in the new (now 16 years old) 1 bedroom but very versatile little house we designed and organised the build. I wouldn’t do that again even if I could!

                  A shout out to all N Zeds here, today we harvested our kiwis, 15 boxes worth, most of them rather small but some are nearly store bought sized. We have a vermin proof shed that acts a bit like a cool store where we keep our fruit over the winter, and the kiwis usually last till mid Spring, getting softer but still very serviceable for smoothies. You will certainly want to plant a persimmon tree, the astringent types are more tasty but you will have to wait until they go really soft to eat them, of course you probably know this. The other tree I think is a must-have for our climates is a black mulberry, do you already have one in the ground? And this goes for all our northern hemisphere friends with the space on their land, many of you seem to live in the same climate zone, interesting isn’t it? And one more tip of the day before I forget and I really must share this because it’s a new discovery that I am just thrilled about–did you know you can eat fig leaves? Yes, they cook up really well in curries, like spinach, and used as wraps for anything, and the most amazing thing is they give off an aroma just like coconuts and vanilla with a touch of nuttiness, so that’s why I think they’re a perfect green to add to curries. Our leaves are starting to yellow now but whoever has a fig tree, please do try this sometime this year.

                  Liked by 2 people

                  Reply

                  1. Love your food growing news and tips Gaia (we’re growing figs). We bought 22 acres in northern NZ just over a year ago with the big intention to grow our own food and house the family longterm in multiple small dwellings mainly from materials- timber, rocks, bamboo and earth – from the land. Food has been the big initial focus establishing a food forest and raised gardens for annuals. Pumpkins (over 120 so far this season), tomatoes and potatoes have been our biggest successes. Cow manure by the trailer load from a neighbour’s farm has been key to getting good soil growing. Couldn’t have done any of it so far without fossil fuels. Contemplating getting a couple of cows ourselves for dairy and meat and their nutrient cycling benefits (cow shit). We’ve been largely vegetarian and plant based milk consumers the last 5 years but not sure that’s the best option in the face of what’s coming. We have a lot of Australian possums I’m trapping and plenty of “free range” rabbits. Not quite there with eating them yet but can see a time when slow cooked wild game will be on the menu.

                    We’re lucky we have gravity fed water supply from a beautiful spring fed bush lined stream. I have also looked into the Bunyip pump but they’re expensive. Will probably install a ram pump to supply other ports of the land the gravity system can’t.

                    Our friends have a pretty high profile food forest established an hour south. It’s pretty inspiring if anyone is interested in that topic. Check out this video introduction – https://youtu.be/YBPLrr9Hph0

                    Happy gardening.

                    Liked by 1 person

                    Reply

                    1. Hello there Campbells, good to meet another neighbour across the Tasman! I trust you and your family are having a peaceful and abundant Easter, rabbits included! Your property sounds absolutely idyllic from which to create your food forest and home haven, so happy that it’s found you! Thank you for sharing your ideals and plans, it’s so wonderful to have met on Rob’s site so many like-minded earthlings who just want to learn how to live with intention and communion with the land. This has been a busy couple of days (in the garden, of course!) and I haven’t had a chance to look at the video yet but will, just wanted to say a quick hello and thank you for all the encouragement and right back at you and everyone else, wherever your life experiment might be, and whatever the scale or scope. It’s so refreshing to be able to balance pragmatic and personally fulfilling action steps with the intellectual knowledge of everything else that is happening all around us, for me the daily routines on and with the land have been critical for my sanity and well-being. There’s nothing that sunshine, bird song, and the feeling of soil between your fingers can’t make better!

                      Liked by 1 person

              3. I’m very impressed! My mental image of your small island country is wrong: 3000km between homesteads is big!

                I’ve never seen that type of water pump before. I really like that it operates without electricity.

                Like

                Reply

                1. We in Tasmania like to sometimes think we’re the mainland and the rest of Australia is just a satellite island to the north of us. There’s a formidable stretch of water separating us, called the Bass Strait and it’s more than proof that the Roaring 40s are a force to be reckoned with, even seasoned sailors consider it a challenge to navigate.
                  About your bears in the berry patch, Rob, I think I’d take my wallaby problem over yours any day!

                  Liked by 1 person

                  Reply

      1. In Germany, this would be considered normal for April. We even have poems describing the unstable weather in this month: “April, April, der macht was er will”.

        Like

        Reply

  30. Nice essay today by Alice Friedemann on the fantasy of replacing diesel with biodiesel. I’m familiar with the false hope of biofuels and instead focused on a side issue.

    Alice reminds us that we burn 28 million barrels * 159 = 4,452,000,000 liters of diesel PER DAY!

    Dwell on that statistic for a few minutes. Think about the staggering quantity of plants that had to grow 10’s of millions of years ago and then be buried and cooked so we can be alive during a few decades of burning 4.5 billion liters per day of a precious non-renewable resource to enjoy what is probably the peak of complexity that is possible in the universe.

    Now think about the probability of us being alive to witness this peak of the universe.

    Reality is much more awesome than a god.

    https://energyskeptic.com/2022/why-it-is-hard-to-replace-diesel-with-biodiesel/

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

    1. I’m so grumpy that the NZ govt arrogantly tells us citizens biofuel is a good solution to rising fuel costs. They also want to do hydrogen, pumped hydro, and every other ill-begotten hair-brained scheme of the bright green dreamers. Apparently we are introducing a biofuels mandate. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/fuel-prices-government-to-push-ahead-with-biofuels-plan-raising-cost-of-fuel-5-10-cents-a-litre/PFPJY53PRQRQTLHZGWAJKSPAK4/
      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/03/biofuels-mandate-will-create-long-term-stability-in-market-jacinda-ardern-says-amid-concerns-fuel-prices-will-jump.html

      Our Climate Commissioner (Dr Rod Carr) has degrees are in economics, law, and business administration. He also happens to have a gold status for being a frequent flyer with Air New Zealand. Here is an article of him suggesting personal changes for net zero that all involve buying new things. Note he doesn’t mention air travel at all: https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/300370248/climate-change-commission-chair-makes-lifestyle-changes-to-reach-zero-carbon

      This is the Draft Report from the NZ Climate Commission: https://haveyoursay.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-advice-and-evidence/
      This is what they say about biofuels for transport:
      “There will continue to be a need for liquid fuels for some transport uses, such as off-road vehicles and equipment, aviation and shipping. Aotearoa [NZ] should take action to scale up the manufacture of low emissions fuels like biofuels or hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels in the first three emissions budget periods. Our path assumes 70 million litres per year of low emissions fuels could be made by 2030 and 140 million litres per year by 2035. This equates to roughly 3% of total domestic liquid fuel demand in 2035, or 1.5% of total fuel demand including international transport, under our path.”

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    2. You can only get dizzy when you look at the numbers of our ressource consumption. If I remember correctly, one barrel of oil is equivalent in energy output to a human working for 11 years on a 40 hour per week schedule. So our Diesel consumption per day equals 308 million years (or arodung 112 billion days) of human work. Too bad, that this awesome energy source is not renewable on a timescale relevant for human beings.

      Regarding the use of biofuels, I remember that they have a very bad ROI. I am not sure how much agricultural area would be needed to generate these 28 million diesel barrels per day, it sounds pretty much impossible without risking the food security for a lot of people.

      Funnily, here in Germany we have gasoline mixed with 10% biofuels marketed as “Super E10” at the gas station, but if you look closely you see that the normal gasoline “Super” also contains 5% biofuels, but is not named “Super E5”. So they somehow sell you biofuels without admitting it openly.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

    3. And add to this already mind-blowing possibility the probability and occurrence of all of us from different walks of life meeting here at this crossroad of time in full consciousness of what is unfolding. This thought brings me a smile and much satisfaction.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

      1. The probability is indeed very low. I suspect it’s near zero on most life compatible planets due to the need for a eucaryotic cell, vast stores of fossil energy, and a brain with an extended theory of mind that denies reality. There’ll be lots of bacteria everywhere but it won’t be talking to each other on a computer network.

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

        1. This is the microbiome you otherwise know as Gaia typing. How can you assume that I have not taken over this organism as a master scheme to further my own means and ends? Your cells number 30 trillion, we 40, so you are more us than what you call self. You earthling humanoids only think you are conscious beings but maybe we are the master computer that has decided to play with your brain and given you a theory of mind. Bwwahahahaha!

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

  31. Denninger today on inflation.

    Hol-Eee-Sweet Jesus (PPI)

    And you though the CPI report was bad….

    “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.9 percent in February and 1.2 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.2 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.”

    Remember yesterday’s stonk-market-promoter mantra: Inflation has peaked.

    Nope.

    That March figure, annualized, is 18%.

    The PPI covers goods and such not yet available to consumers; that is, in the process of production. Therefore it is behind the CPI and the CPI will follow it as certainly as spring follows winter.

    What’s much worse are the intermediate unprocessed figures less food and energy; those were up 9.5% on the month and the 12-month run-rate is 40.8%! This is not an anomaly; the last 12 months have seen these figures at 35% or better annually every single month and there is no evidence that it is coming back in.

    The foods processed good figures are now sporting three straight months of 2% increases on the month which annualizes to 26.8% and ex-food and energy they’re still sporting 10% annualized across the three month rolling average.

    These numbers are nasty folks and they make a short-term significant decline in the CPI — the so-called “inflation report” impossible.

    The Fed has two choices: Stomp on this with much higher rates and very strong pulls of liquidity (e.g. balance sheet reduction) or the entire social fabric of the nation is at severe risk of collapse.

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=245630

    Like

    Reply

  32. It’s rare to get a tour of a high-end integrated circuit manufacturing facility. This is worth watching to see one of the complexity miracles created by the human brain using surplus fossil energy.

    P.S. I remember visiting Israel on business around the same time that a small group of brilliant engineers in Israel were maneuvering Intel to build a major fab facility there. Quite an accomplishment for a tiny country with zero natural resources.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. Rob,
      I had read a lot about the different processes required to make a chip and at one point had seen a little part of this, but never realized the vast complexity of the thousands of machines and inputs that went into it. No wonder no one can afford to build state of the art FAB plants anymore. The height of complexity at the end of fossil fueled civilization.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I know the Israelis reasonably well and there is probably a reason they let this tech YouTuber with a big audience in to film. At the end of the documentary they showed an acreage in the very early stages of a major plant expansion. I wouldn’t be surprised if this project is in jeopardy due to the US now wanting to repatriate their strategic manufacturing. I’ll bet the Israelis permitted this video to build political support for their expansion project.

        Like

        Reply

    1. Good video! All our institutions are collapsing. Perhaps first some weakened and collapsed that we didn’t miss too much, now ones are dying which most people are attached to.

      Like

      Reply

  36. Are your worries about the Ukraine war going up or down?

    I’m getting more worried. I’d hoped for a quick Russian win. Now the west is pouring more weapons in, and I expect Russia will not and can not back down.

    Like

    Reply

    1. My perception is that the war is generally going according to Putin’s plan. I read a LOT on it daily (it’s still raining out so what else can I do?). I read mostly from non-western sources. I think the MSM in the west is all buying the narrative that Biden and his handlers put out-which is the U.S. is the best empire and should lead the world (most democratic, lawful, rules based-crap we know is lies). The west is just marketing hype (the same with Zelenski). Scott Ritter seems to be spot on. same with the guys on The Duran. I also watched most of Stone’s movie on Putin. Putin is a Russia first kinda person who appears very logical and patient. Of course all these leaders seem completely collapse unaware. I think Russia will fulfill it’s aims in Ukraine if NATO doesn’t get involved with troops. BUT I think the west is playing with nuclear fire and we might all get burned.
      AJ

      Like

      Reply

    2. I think sans Western weapons Russia would take a year or so and accomplish its goals. Then they would leave Ukraine. If NATO keeps flooding escalating munitions, I fear Russia may be forced to strike within NATO territory. I believe the NATO hope is they can draw this out and bleed Russia with foreign military aid. My default hope is that economic hardship will cause a groundswell of popular resistance to involvement. Perhaps the French election and the upcoming US midterms will shed some light. I agree with you that Russia will not back down – but they would accept negotiations for the Donbass/Crimea and an end to NATO provocations. I don’t believe for a moment that they want to occupy the rest of Ukraine.

      If the gas issue isn’t resolved within a few months, Europe will collapse next year under rolling blackouts and economic shutdown.

      Like

      Reply

        1. Yes, it appears that way. Perhaps the status quo can just proceed with bold talk not turning into anything else. I know the EU has a “plan” to fill 90% of their gas storage by Nov 1st. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-plan-wean-itself-off-russian-gas-faster-2022-03-02/

          A range of impacts are being considered, from typical imports to no imports:

          https://www.bruegel.org/2022/02/preparing-for-the-first-winter-without-russian-gas/

          My prediction is that governments will address this crisis with the same level of skill they addressed COVID: Shit solutions followed by mandated restrictions. I think a reasonable assumption is 15% reduced EU economic activity during the Winter of 2022 due to scarcity, high prices, or both.

          Even in the best case scenario there will be an increasing demand on high priced LNG for the rest of the year. I predict government subsidies for high prices. Perhaps this will drive up inflation of related goods and services.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

  37. Well worth the 20 minutes. There may be more to the Vitamin d story. The take away message is that sunshine is extremely important for your health.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Interesting, thanks. My take-aways: vitamin D supplementation is good, but sunshine is better because it also produces melatonin.

      Odd that he did not discuss melatonin supplementation for those of us that live in the great white north with no sun for 6 months of the year.

      I observe that not only did our leaders not recommend vitamin D, they also blocked access to outdoor spaces via lockdowns to minimize exposure to sunlight.

      Every single thing our leaders did was the wrong, and most tellingly, they have not corrected a single one of their bad decisions as more data became available.

      Like

      Reply

    1. Thank you. Nice to find someone else trying to understand why the majority of humans deny our overshoot predicament.

      She seems to believe there are a large number of contributing factors for denial. That’s not consistent with what I observe in people. It all looks the same to me.

      Like

      Reply

      1. Agreed – I think denial is actually quite simple, but it is very broad/deep. i.e. there is no “hack” to implement here.
        It’s all-encompassing.

        Varki gives an excellent evolutionary psych approach. Most of my background in psychology is in more traditional psychoanalysis and as I’ve mentioned before I came across your page through Ernest Becker’s Denial of Death.

        Basically, nothing at all will be done about overshoot unless it can be packaged in the context of helping people deny death and reinforce their ego. This is why the most common responses (Green washing, prepping) touch only trivially on the actual problem, and primarily serve to give people a cultural identity, manage anxiety, and encourage more stuff to buy.

        Like

        Reply

        1. I listened to Alex Smith interview Dr. Paul Beckwith on the Radio EcosShock podcast yesterday. They both understand the seriousness of our situation and they both know overshoot is the key issue and yet they blathered on about the need for carbon capture technologies and how solar PV can run the modern world forever with little maintenance, and not once mentioned population or consumption reduction.

          These are intelligent extremely well informed people.

          I even had Alex Smith interview Ajit Varki so he understands MORT. A month or two after the Varki interview I spoke with Smith and suggested that since he now understood the scientific basis for denial he should call out his guests when they spray bullshit. Smith replied something along the lines of it’s not his job as a journalist to filter truth from crap.

          The power of denial is fu**ing unbelievable!!

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

              1. Yes – it’s important to remember that “denial” isn’t about lack of information. I’ve come to primarily think of psychological defenses in general as about motivated attention. Older terms such as “denial” tend to convey an element of moralizing (i.e. it implies we just “shouldn’t” be in denial). This is an excellent example of one modern perspective on defenses.

                https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8681205_Psychological_Defense_Mechanisms_A_New_Perspective

                Like

                Reply

                1. Motivated attention suggests we shift focus from the unpleasant to the pleasant. That’s not what I see when I discuss unpleasant topics with people. I see discomfort and then a switch turns off, like curtains coming down over their eyes. Their brain doesn’t shift to a more pleasant topic, it turns off. This is I think consistent with what MORT predicts.

                  Like

                  Reply

                  1. Shutdown can happen for many reasons, and be influenced by lots of interpersonal dynamics so I don’t dismiss your point.

                    For instance, if people are bluntly contradicted they may shift to a conflict avoidance strategy having nothing to do with the topic at hand.

                    I think of motivated attention as stemming from unconscious drives, and drives are more than a focus on the happy/positive valence moods. This is because people have many other more complex motivations than pleasant feelings. Consider the political landscape: Most peoples attention is not focused on the positive (which might lend one to expect a Zen kind of “grattitude” or something). Instead it is focused negatively on other people – blaming the other for problems, and preserving the self as as superior and part of the good tribe. This motivation is more about power, aggression, or aggrandizement/protection of the ego.

                    If your experience is anything like mine most people aren’t even really using overshoot/climate conversations about solving problems and deciding personal actions, but the purpose of the conversation is one about righteous group affiliation.

                    Another common situation is that any conversation involving “fears about the future” turns into a forum for people externally process their psychological defenses for validation, to manage anxiety

                    Like

                    Reply

                2. Indeed. One might suppose that denial actually requires information, otherwise there is nothing to deny. However, denial does also require the understanding of that information or at least that the denial of the information is accompanied by sound arguments about why that information is wrong. I’ve lost count of the dismissal of all information on climate change, or other environmental degradations, with the truism of “the climate/environment is always changing”. No attempt to understand the reason for, and the speed of, such changes.

                  Like

                  Reply

                  1. Person A: I know I’m going to die because I saw my mother die, but she’s in heaven and I’m going to join her someday, therefore no need to dwell on mortality or be depressed.

                    Person B: You’re wrong, here’s all the reasons heaven can not and does not exist.

                    Person A: Brain switches off. Blank stare with no response.

                    Liked by 1 person

                    Reply

    2. Nice article. I have a few quibbles but it’s pretty good.

      Over the years, I’ve come to really understand that Homo sapiens is a species, and, like every other species, has a characteristic behaviour. Some members of the species may behave slightly differently and, if that imparts a survival advantage, over a time-scale commensurate with reproduction life-spans, then it will start to become the dominant behaviour. That characteristic behaviour may be manifest in different ways in different environments (small “e”). Humans, as a whole, are exhibiting that characteristic behaviour and I have no expectation that it will change in time to make a difference to the whole planet’s predicament. Personally, I can’t just do nothing so I do what little I can in the society I find myself in. It’s not enough.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  39. This soon to be released documentary looks promising. If anyone finds a copy please let us know about it.

    Richard Heinberg comments:

    Filmmaker Emmanuel Cappellin contacted me back in 2015 and explained a project he had in mind. It was ambitious and profound. He’d worked with famed French documentarian Yann Arthus-Bertrand, so I assumed he knew what he was up to, but it seemed that he wanted a substantial chunk of my time. Emmanuel asked deep and probing questions. He captured interview footage of me in California and Greece; he also interviewed other environmental writers and activists—Jean-Marc Jancovici, Saleemul Huq, and Susi Moser. The result, after years of editing, is “Once You Know,” a visually stunning and emotionally grounded examination of the personal and psychological impacts of our global overshoot crisis. Once you know that humanity’s climate-biodiversity-pollution-population-inequality dilemmas will not be painlessly solved, how will you continue to live your life? Can you still make a difference? There are no easy answers; therefore, few of us tend to talk honestly about the situation with our families and friends. Instead, most of us simply live in denial a lot of the time. This film is a denial buster and conversation starter.

    On Earth Day (Friday, 22 April, 2022, 23:45 CEST), Emmanuel, I, and the other cast members will participate in a special global screening event and online discussion. Please join us for what promises to be a milestone in the ongoing discussion about out planetary future.

    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2022-04-18/once-you-know-2/

    https://www.videoproject.org/once-you-know.html

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. This reminded me of a documentary from 2007: What a Way to Go – Life at the End of Empire. It was a similar kind of monologue and with snips from well known commentators, again including Heinberg. I think I preferred that earlier documentary, though it’s a while since I saw it.

      Like

      Reply

  40. Sid Smith just released his first few videos from his new series called “How to Enjoy the End of the World” (not to be confused with his talk of the same name) shortened to HTETEOTW. Highly recommended!

    Like

    Reply

      1. I liked the video even if I disagree with Sid on some of his points. If I was in any civilization prior to this moment, I would agree with him that collapse is just part of a process of nature’s cycle. However, being as we are here now when the “sane, mature, adult” voices are counseling nuclear war I think the situation is far worse than just run of the mill collapse.
        As we seem to be moving unrelentingly toward a nuclear war, that would seem to me to be a true tragedy. A nuclear war entails the almost certain complete collapse of all of western civilization along with the possible extinction of human life and most of the rest of life on this planet. Such a collapse would leave a world with no sentient life (maybe only microbial) in a sentient less universe. If that isn’t a tragedy I don’t know what Sid would consider one.
        We haven’t been talking much on this site about Ukraine lately and I’m not optimistic that Putin can retain control of the situation to the extent necessary in the face of a political class in the west that is determined (many are unthinking lemmings) to force a civilization ending confrontation.
        AJ

        Like

        Reply

        1. I too am very worried. Over the last few years our leaders from all political parties have shown they are incompetent on all serious matters. They are the people I remember from university that were not bright enough to make it serious disciplines like engineering and now they rule the world.

          Liked by 1 person

          Reply

    1. I’ve already watched the first two episodes. I will watch the remainder. My initial take-on it is that I would prefer Putin to my own leader. He may be ruthless, corrupt, etc. (western propaganda??) but he appears logical, rational, deliberate, controlled and intelligent. A far cry from the greedy, incompetent, self-centered leaders we have in the west. I was not much impressed with Stone (smart, but too much attempting to get a “gotcha” on Putin). This should be required viewing by all people in the west (especially political leaders).
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. I would prefer Putin to my own leader

        I don’t know who your leader is, AJ, but would you like a leader who blocks all criticism, to the extent of making that a criminal offence?

        Like

        Reply

        1. I live in the Pacific Northwest in the U.S. So, the Empire of Lies constitutes my leadership (and I was even voted for some of them!). I was very anti-Trump but now wonder if Biden (senile/dementia) is worse as we don’t know who is the committee controlling him(and the decisions being made are illogical, irrational and appear to be emotionally driven). Putin is elected democratically about as much as Biden/Trump were in my opinion. I don’t think Putin is a great guy, just logical, rational, deliberate, controlled and intelligent. His biggest fault is that he seems to be in denial/or unaware of overshoot/collapse. And I don’t think out in public criticism of our current situation is tolerated very well.
          AJ

          Like

          Reply

          1. I’m pretty certain that the Biden’s election was much more democratic than Putin’s but I can understand the feeling of “out of the frying pan, into the fire” feeling of moving from Trump to Biden. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine doesn’t seem like the action of a rational person, but that’s just me.

            I don’t know of any leader who seems to comprehend the finite nature of our world. But then, I don’t know of many people who understand it. In terms of our leaders, I’m coming to the feeling that it doesn’t really matter who is elected leader in moderately democratic countries (undemocratic countries is another issue) because they all seem to have the same core delusion.

            Liked by 1 person

            Reply

            1. Not so sure that any “election” in the U.S. is truly democratic anymore. Maybe when I was a kid in the 1950’s?? But surly not in 2016 and beyond. The only people running for office in this country (99%) in my opinion, are bought and paid for by the 1% (mostly through their corporate toadies). On some level this goes back to the founding of this country when Jefferson was afraid of the money party (represented by Hamilton) and Hamilton was afraid of the people. Once the Supreme Court (bunch of ultra right wing lawyers) decided “Citizens United” and gave corporations the right to “give” unlimited funds to “candidates” elections here died. And why after a lifetime of “voting” I won’t bother anymore.
              Maybe Putin’s elections are less democratic, but not by much. The U.S. is truly now the “Empire of Lies”.
              AJ

              Liked by 1 person

              Reply

    1. Thanks, I don’t remember you posting that here.

      I don’t understand the motivation of the crazies. We have enough trouble breaking through the denial of all things that matter in this world without overshoot aware people distorting the story to provide good reasons for the unaware to say “those doomers are whack jobs and I’m going to ignore them all”.

      We have so little clarity and truth in this world. It makes me sad.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  43. Stumbled on this article today from a website I haven’t seen before https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink?s=r

    A good dive into underlying issues with shortages in key inputs and vulnerabilities in complexity.

    Even our top farmers here in NZ are talking about the looming food crisis https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/rural-life-other/food-crisis-coming-farm-leader-warns

    Yet most of the msm, our politicians and other leaders surface dwell on Ukraine, Covid and how to get economic growth cranking again.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    1. Thanks, that was a good essay. I can’t remember who introduced me to Doomberg but I’m already subscribed.

      Lots of reasons to be worried about food.

      fossil energy + credit + global trade -> food -> 8 billion people

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  46. Gail Tverberg is good today.

    It’s no wonder everything is breaking all at once including goodwill and common sense.

    Crude oil production for the year 2021 was a disappointment for those hoping that production would rapidly bounce back to at least the 2019 level. World crude oil production increased by 1.4% in 2021, to 77.0 million barrels per day, after a decrease of -7.5% in 2020. If we look back, we can see that the highest year of crude oil production was in 2018, not 2019. Oil production in 2021 was still 5.9 million barrels per day below the 2018 level.

    …up through 2018, each person in the world consumed an average of around 4.0 barrels of crude oil. This equates to 168 US gallons or 636 liters of crude per year.

    Saying that the Ukraine invasion is causing the current high price is mostly a convenient excuse, suggesting that the high prices will suddenly disappear if this conflict disappears. The sad truth is that depletion is causing the cost of extraction to rise.

    We are likely entering a period of conflict and confusion because of the way the world’s self-organizing economy behaves when there is an inadequate supply of crude oil.

    Gail concludes by saying the only good path forward may be to strengthen the denial that enabled the emergence of behaviorally modern humans 200,000 years ago.

    About all we can do is enjoy each day we have and try not to be disturbed by the increasing conflict around us. It becomes clear that many of us will not live as long or well as we previously expected, regardless of savings or supposed government programs. There is no real way to fix this issue, except perhaps to make religion and the possibility of life after death more of a focus.

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/04/21/the-world-has-a-major-crude-oil-problem-expect-conflict-ahead/

    Like

    Reply

    1. I agree with her that religion could make a comeback if the situation gets worse. If your life at earth sucks due to ressource depletion and all its accompanying problems, the focus on the afterlife could become attractive again.

      I was baffled by the average consumption rate of crude oil. 4 barrels of oil per person per year means that each persons get 44 years of work from just oil during one year. If you consider, that oil is just 1/3 of our energy use, that means we get on average around 130 years of work from our energy sources, I would assume that this would be a lot more in Germany. I remember that I once read about a statement by Buckminster Fuller, that we are surrounded by over 100 energy slaves. This is a very accurate assessment of our situation. Too bad, that most of them are one-time-use slaves.

      Like

      Reply

  47. Rob – have you listened to N. Hagen’s recent interview of Prof. Daniel Pauly at UBC? I thought Pauly spoke eloquently on the concept of “shifting baselines.” Why do people accept degraded environments? Partly because they don’t know what came before. I’ve never really considered the intersection of behavioral sinks and shifting baselines but I think there is probably something there as well.

    Pauly’s remarks on gill oxygen limitation theory were also worth a listen.

    Like

    Reply

    1. Yes I did but I got pissed off when Pauly said the unvaccinated created virus variants which is exactly the opposite of the truth and suggests Pauly drinks Kool-Aid without thinking.

      I’m going to listen to it again because I think he said some interesting things about peak fish.

      I do not understand what you mean by “the intersection of behavioral sinks and shifting baselines”. Please explain if it is important.

      Like

      Reply

      1. It’s not the opposite of the truth but it’s not the whole truth. Any infection where the virus can multiply has the capability of resulting in variants of concern. Evolution will take care of which variants end up with a greek letter.

        Like

        Reply

      2. It’s important, or at least worth noting, because as our social, cultural and environmental baselines shift, we are more apt to accept the behavioral disturbances that characterize a behavioral sink (stress, alienation, hostility, lack of available social niches or meaningful roles) as relatively normal and hence less likely to fix the problem(s). And it explains why we can so easily and seamlessly slide into a downward spiral over successive generations. Or something like that.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

  48. Good morning everyone. Now to ruin your day;)
    https://blogenkiops.wordpress.com/2022/04/21/insanity-defined-us-gambles-on-russias-empty-threats/
    Chuck Watson’s post from yesterday could not be more dire. I follow the war in Ukraine incessantly (very bad habit). I was unaware on a macro level how bad the west had become. Reading the link in Watson’s blog to the Washington Post article was eye opening. It would appear that the Biden administration has gone completely delusional. Do they think the west is winning and that they can escalate the situation without a Russian response? I realize they are idiots, but that stupid? If so, one can only pray (metaphorically) that Putin’s response does not escalate the situation to the point of a reciprocal escalatory spiral. We are in dire times.
    AJ

    Like

    Reply

          1. I don’t know why you’d think I wouldn’t believe what you say. You said Putin has been clear and consistent but you can’t even summarise those reasons? Just a few sentences will do.

            Like

            Reply

            1. 1) Stay neutral (no formal or informal NATO cooperation, no threatening weapons).
              2) Respect and protect the rights and security of Russian speaking people in the east.

              Now that the west has provoked Russia to fight for the above they have additional demands.

              Like

              Reply

              1. Thanks. Yes, I’ve heard of those reasons as justification for invasion. The first can’t be expected of any country over time. The second is what I’d want for all citizens. Although I’ve heard of those demands, I haven’t heard of stories (though they may exist) where Russian speaking people aren’t respected or their rights protected. A justification for invasion? I can’t see it. And when I think of “rights” I wonder why the rights of some Russian speaking people in Russia aren’t being respected.

                Like

                Reply

                1. The invasion is consistent with what the US would do if Russia with Mexico’s blessing put weapons and biolabs on the Mexican border. Or if Russia put nuclear weapons in Cuba. It doesn’t make it right, it’s just the reality of might makes right. Ukraine will now lose much more than had it simply respected Russia’s clearly articulated red line.

                  Like

                  Reply

                  1. Might makes right is important. People like to make moral analogies to self defense – which legally exists in many places under the context of rule of law. This is a category error. Great powers are not individuals. The first point is that there is no “government of governments” and world powers exist in a state of anarchy – not meaning chaos, but meaning there is not central authority which can be counted on to act fairly. The existence of organizations such as the UN may be well intentioned, but are either impotent or obvious frauds/shills for the US as global hegemon. You can’t rely on the UN to do anything, and if they do something, you can’t count on it being fair or just.

                    Moral justification is mostly irrelevant.

                    I use the illustration that if your neighbor started building machine gun nests on your property line, and mortar emplacements, then saw them calculating ranges and trajectories, you’d feel your “personal security” was at great risk. The notion of one not acting in such a situation relies on appeal to a government existing which will intervene.

                    Other global powers actively ignored Russia’s attempts at negotiations and setting limits, flagrantly ignoring prior commitments. For those who want peace, the question of whether Putin “should” have done what he did is secondary to the question of whether we “should” have rationally expected him to act this way. Obviously we should have expected this because not only did Russia clearly say “If you X, we will Y”, but we have acted in the exact same way in the same situation in the past.

                    Liked by 1 person

                    Reply

                    2. Actually, Russia said they had no intention of invading Ukraine, up to the point they did. Even then, they don’t call it an invasion. But you’re right, moral justification is largely irrelevant. Everyone’s morals are different. Would anyone do anything that they, themselves, think is immoral? Maybe.

                      Like

                  2. I probably wouldn’t completely disagree with you there. As you say, it doesn’t make it right. Russia should also respect the right of Ukraine to make its own decisions about its own security policies. I’m sure there are many situations around the world where a country doesn’t like the policies of its neighbour. I hope they don’t all result in war and the widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure and housing. Are such actions likely to result in that neighbour acquiescing to all the red lines, once the war is over?

                    Like

                    Reply

                    1. Disagreements obviously don’t always result in war unless you threaten a superpower. The US would attack Mexico without blinking for a similar threat. Now Ukraine will lose a big chunk of their territory, many lives, and much wealth and infrastructure for not being prudent.

                      Like

              2. Yep. Denazification is a tertiary issue. I think both sides are skewing this issue:

                On the one hand, the West is discounting the existence of these factions and their impact on Ukrainian domestic policy and the Donbass civil war
                On the other hand, the RF is overhyping this as a sort of PR which resonates more domestically in the RF than internationally

                The real issue is complicated, similar but not identical to the differences between Al Qaida and the Taliban.

                Like

                Reply

  49. Good interview with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.

    56 minutes of detailed intelligent discussion. The last 2 US presidents couldn’t manage 30 seconds of a discussion like this.

    Like

    Reply

    1. On your review I watched this video. It was good and Lavrov was particularly articulate in English. Which I would expect from a Foreign Minister of a pre-eminent world power. He marshalled all the facts supporting Russia’s position vis-a-via Ukraine. I’m not sure I believe him on every single point; he is like a polished lawyer in making his client’s case. He is no doubt more intelligent and articulate than either Trump or especially Biden, sad to say. For someone unfamiliar with the facts he is a good primer-so most of the western populace could do with listening to him. Our leaders are to stupid to follow his articulation of the facts so for them this would be a waste of time.
      AJ

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      1. We already had periods of rationing during the pandemic. There were times during the first lockdown when you were only allowed to buy toilet paper and flour in household typical quantities (e.g. two per customer). Now, we have the same situation for vegetable oils, flour (again) and pasta (and maybe some other products).

        Like

        Reply

Leave a comment