Party-on or Not?

When a person learns that over-population, over-consumption, and resource depletion are leading to collapse of civilization and extinction of many species, what should they do?

One response is to work hard to maximize income and to invest as much as possible to increase the probability of a comfortable life after the collapse.

Another response is to voluntarily reduce income and consumption and to have fewer or no children.

The problem with the latter response is similar to why efficiency alone cannot solve our energy or climate problems. If total consumption is to be reduced through frugality and/or efficiency then there must be a mechanism to prevent the newly freed resources from being consumed by someone else.

No such mechanism exists today.

In today’s global world if I choose not to consume a liter of gasoline it almost certainly will be consumed by someone else.

Despite this pessimistic view of the impact an individual can make, I have concluded that frugality is still the correct strategy.

It is probable that much wealth will be lost in the coming collapse as paper claims (money and investments) on future wealth vaporize. Any wealth that escapes the initial deflation will be threatened by the inflation that is likely to follow and/or governments in desperate need of taxes and/or angry mobs.

By voluntarily reducing consumption one builds material resiliency to coming shocks because less is needed to maintain your lifestyle, and builds emotional resiliency because less pain is associated with voluntarily doing something than being forced to do the same thing.

A modest lifestyle also sets a good example for family and friends. If enough people admire and emulate your actions then a meaningful positive impact might emerge.

You might also sleep better knowing that you did what you could.

What to Expect as We Collapse

What are we likely to experience as we collapse?

  • unemployment will rise
  • incomes will fall
  • interest rates will rise
  • stock and bond prices will fall
  • real estate prices will fall
  • credit availability will decline
  • trade will decline and may become sporadic due to credit system problems
  • fewer imported goods will be available — think about how few durable items are manufactured in Canada
  • food prices will increase due to less availability of imported food and consequent higher demand for local food
  • large-scale industrial food production may be disrupted due to rising interest rates and supply chain problems however governments will probably make it a priority to keep big agriculture going
  • energy prices and consumption will fall as fewer consumers are able to afford it
  • the upper bound on energy flow rates will decline because lower prices will not support expensive extraction like tar sands and fracking
  • total economic activity will shrink in parallel with declining energy consumption
  • air travel will decline or stop for all but the rich
  • many cars will be abandoned as operating costs becomes unaffordable and resale value approaches zero
  • roads and infrastructure will fall into disrepair
  • electricity may become intermittent in some regions
  • social unrest and crime will increase
  • tax rates will increase, tax revenues will decline, demand for social programs will increase, and governments will be forced to choose between more social unrest now due to deflation, or more social unrest in the future due to inflation — most will chose inflation
  • the severity of the pressure on governments will result in collapse or hyper-inflation for some countries, especially those will no indigenous energy or goods to trade for energy
  • war between countries competing for scarce resources and/or seeking scapegoats is probable
  • everyone will experience hardship but farmers without debt will probably do best

The collapse will likely occur in steps and will continue for about 100 years until all affordable fossil fuels have been extracted at which point civilization will resemble medieval life, assuming we have not gone extinct through famine, disease, or wars.

Layered on top of this economic and social chaos will be a rapidly changing and violent climate that will disrupt food production and cause economic damage. We can expect a warming impulse with unknown but likely negative consequences when aerosol particulates drop with declining industrial activity and air travel.

The Universe and Its Purpose

I have read many books on astronomy and physics. Here are a few of the important ideas that stuck with me:

  • We have deduced mathematical laws of physics that accurately describe and predict the universe’s behavior.
  • Some of the laws of physics, such as quantum mechanics, are very strange but they work remarkably well.
  • The universe began about 13.8 billion years ago as a big bang of extremely dense energy.
  • A few constants define how the universe evolved after the big bang. It seems these constants could have been different resulting in a completely different universe. We do not know why they are the way they are.
  • We do not and probably never will know what existed before the big bang, nor whether our universe is unique or one of many, nor whether our universe is infinite or finite.
  • As the big bang expanded and cooled some of the energy converted into light gases.
  • These gases formed clouds which collapsed under gravity to form stars.
  • As these stars aged some exploded and created heavier elements like carbon and other materials necessary for life.
  • Some of these heavier elements collapsed into new stars and planets including our sun and earth about 4.5 billion years ago. All life is thus amazingly composed of exploded star-dust.
  • There are a mind-boggling 300 sextillion (3×1023) stars in the universe and probably more planets.
  • Shortly after our earth formed it was randomly struck by a mars sized body which created our moon.
  • The moon helped to create an environment hospitable for life by stabilizing earth’s rotation and creating tides.
  • Our sun will use up its fuel and consume the earth in about 6 billion years.
  • The universe’s expansion is accelerating and we do not know what the “dark energy” is that is causing this.
  • We calculate more gravity than should exist for the mass we observe and we do not know what this “dark matter” is.
  • 95% of the universe is dark energy and dark matter (the stuff we do not yet understand).
  • The universe began as high quality dense energy and most scientists think it will end in about 100 trillion years as low quality diffuse energy – cold, black, and without life.

The amount we understand about the universe is quite remarkable and is something to be genuinely proud of as a member of the human species.

We have found no need for a god to explain anything in the universe, unless we want to assign a reason for the laws of physics being the way they are, in which case such a god would have no resemblance to any of the gods worshiped by our many religions.

I find it enlightening to contemplate the purpose or objective of the universe.

Since the universe started as high quality dense energy and its destination is low quality diffuse energy it is reasonable to state that the objective of the universe is to degrade energy.

Structures and mechanisms which degrade energy can and will form provided they are consistent with the laws of physics. Those structures and mechanisms which degrade energy the most effectively are the most likely to exist.

Another way to think about this is that wherever an energy gradient exists, things (work) can happen, and given enough time they will happen, provided the laws of physics permit it.

This is important because life is an excellent mechanism for degrading energy. Life is thus probable everywhere in the universe that has conditions that permit it to exist.

Humans are the Earth’s most effective species at degrading energy. We dominate the planet because of this talent, and although in the process we are causing the extinction of many other species and probably causing our own collapse, it is interesting to observe that humans are doing what the universe wants. That is, burning all of the fossil energy as quickly as possible to convert it into low quality waste heat thus helping the universe to arrive at its destination as quickly as possible.

If humans had not learned to exploit fossil energy then some other species would probably have evolved to exploit this energy gradient.

It is probable that intelligent life has evolved many (but not too many) times in the universe but always collapses shortly after it learns how to exploit fossil energy. This may explain why we have not heard from any other intelligent life despite years of listening.

This interactive tool titled The Scale of the Universe 2 by Cary Huang is excellent for helping to visualize our place in the universe:

http://htwins.net/scale2/

Or if you prefer to watch it as a video:

My Approach to Writing on the Economy

The economy is a very popular topic. Everyone wants more money. Everyone has a strong opinion. Lots of intriguing and murky stuff goes on. Many bloggers make a living from analyzing, predicting, muckraking, and titillating.

Many different sites cater to different perspectives. Do you want to blame the fed, or the rich, or the slackers, or the foreigners, or the right-wing, or the left-wing? Take your pick, you can find a big community of like-minded people to froth with.

What’s really hard to find is a deep unbiased understanding of what’s actually going on.

It’s there if you dig, but it’s hard work.

There’s little I can say about the economy that’s not already been said. So I will be brief and stick to the important things to know, and things I do not often see elsewhere.

Cognitive Dissonance Everywhere

Had lunch today with a successful small-scale farmer specializing in producing healthy meat.

He seemed oblivious to problems we face. He said peak oil had been proven wrong and that the new fracking technologies were going to make the US an energy exporter. He seemed an intelligent person, yet believed strongly in something for which he had no supporting data and chose not to ask me any questions about why I held a different view.

Nate Hagens was right. The data have proven peak oil a reality yet the public still views peak oil with hostile distaste and willful ignorance. I think Varki’s theory explains the willful ignorance.

I would estimate the number of people who understand what is going on is less than 1 in 10,000. What will happen when the economy collapses? Almost everyone will be surprised and unprepared.  The chorus will be “no one saw this coming”.

By David Collum: 2013 Year in Review

Once a year David Collum writes a summary of the previous year with a focus on the economy and investing. I think it is the best big picture economic summary available anywhere.

It’s a long read but well worth your time.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/84101/2013-year-in-review

Also available on zerohedge if you like to read lots of diverse comments from highly opinionated readers:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-21/2013-year-review

By Nate Hagens: Navigating through a Room full of Elephants

Many people understand pieces of our predicament. Very few understand all of the pieces.

Nate Hagens has the best big picture understanding of anyone I know.

Nate has a new blog called The Monkey Trap that he set up after the The Oil Drum closed down.

Over the years I have collected a large library of books, articles, and video. If I had to chose only one item that best explains what is going on, this talk by Nate Hagens would be it.

Enjoy.

And here is a different version of the same talk targeted at a younger audience with less background knowledge.

By Tom Murphy: Growth has an Expiration Date

Here is a classic by physicist Tom Murphy.

This is my favorite talk on limits to growth, the most important topic almost no one discusses, including people who should know better, like the Green Party.

Note that Murphy does not mention the explosive worldwide growth in debt, which is the only reason the game has continued longer than engineers like myself predicted it should.

The problem with our reliance on debt is that when the correction comes, it will be much more violent and damaging than it needed to be, which is another topic that the Green Party, and almost everyone else, does not discuss.

In summary, the most important things we should be discussing, are the things we never discuss.

Isn’t that an amazing behavior for an otherwise intelligent species?

book review: Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen

 

http://www.amazon.com/Storms-My-Grandchildren-Catastrophe-Humanity/dp/1608195023

This is a review of James Hansen’s 2009 book “Storms of My Grandchildren”. James Hansen is the most respected climate scientist in the world. He is naturally shy and avoids publicity but decided to write this, his only book, after the birth of a grandchild. He wanted his grandchild to know later in life that his grandfather had done everything he could to warn the world. I’m of the opinion that Storms of My Grandchildren is the definitive book on climate change.

The density of information in the book is very high so it won’t be possible for me to summarize all of it. Instead I will try to convey the big takeaways for me. Hansen did a remarkable job of summarizing all of the important science. This science is much more complex and nuanced than I had previously thought. I was surprised how deep our understanding is, and the stability of the foundation upon which it rests. I was under the mistaken impression that most predictions had been drawn from computer models, the accuracy of which is of course dependent on model assumptions. It turns out that most of the important predictions are drawn from studying climate change throughout the geologic history of our planet, and they know a surprising amount about past climate.

Before I discuss Hansen’s conclusions, I need to digress for a moment. Experts in the fields of energy, economy, and climate tend to have narrow fields of view. Economists generally know very little about or deny the physical realities of energy and climate. Energy experts frequently dismiss climate change or are ignorant of the science. Climate scientists frequently do not understand or include the implications of peak energy and peak debt in their forecasts. These blind spots are remarkable given the intimate inter-dependencies of energy, economy, and climate.

James Hansen is no exception. From his book I conclude that he does not understand the implications and timing of peak oil, and seems to be unaware of our monetary system mathematics that guarantee collapse in the absence of growth. Therefore it is very important to place Hansen’s climate predictions in the context of his energy and economy assumptions.

Hansen assumes the economy (and hence energy consumption) will continue at roughly its current level.  He makes a very compelling case that if we continue to burn coal, oil, and natural gas at the current rate, then global warming will make the lives of our grandchildren miserable at best, and unlivable at worst.  The most important impacts being significant sea level rise, agriculture disruption, storm damage, and species extinction.

He further asserts, with no uncertainty, that if we burn all of the remaining coal plus non-conventional oil (tar sands and oil shale) then the planet will experience runaway warming and will end up like Venus with all life extinguished.

Hansen concludes (with supporting analysis) that there is only one possible solution to maintain a planet that is hospitable (if somewhat damaged) for our grandchildren:

1) We must reduce CO2 from today’s 392 ppm to below 350 ppm, and very soon. It was refreshing to hear him acknowledge how difficult this will be. For example, every single country that signed the Kyoto protocol, which promised CO2 reductions, actually saw CO2 increases, and CO2 is still increasing today. Furthermore, even countries that signed with honest intentions and worked hard on renewable energy and conservation, like Japan, still saw CO2 go up. In case you are puzzled by this, it is exactly what one would expect given that GDP is proportional to energy consumption, and 90+% of our energy comes from burning fossil fuels.

2) To achieve 350 ppm we must stop all use of coal, plus stop non-conventional oil (tar sands & oil shale), plus implement a carbon tax, plus stop deforestation, plus control population growth. Again, it was refreshing to hear him acknowledge that we cannot stop using our remaining conventional oil because there is no alternative and because we will need it for the following step.

3) To maintain civilization as we know it, and to have any hope of public support, we must replace most of the electricity that was previously generated by coal. Again I was impressed that Hansen understands that the low power density and intermittency of solar and wind eliminates them as candidates for coal replacement. Hansen says our only choice is nuclear. But current nuclear produces too much waste and consumes too much depleting non-renewable uranium. Therefore we need a crash program to develop 4th generation nuclear and a little luck. If successful, 4th generation nuclear will burn waste from today’s reactors and will produce very little new waste.

I have studied energy in sufficient depth to know that Hansen is correct about the need to replace coal with nuclear, assuming  lifestyles as usual. More specifically, I agree with Hansen that when you hear people promote clean coal (which means carbon capture and storage) you can rest assured that this is green-wash that will never happen for a variety of solid technical and economic reasons.

It’s worth reflecting on the precariousness of our grandchildren’s situation, when the only possible solution that maintains current lifestyles and a livable planet requires a new nuclear technology that is still in the R&D phase and may not work.

But now we need to circle back and revisit his initial assumption that the economy (and hence energy consumption) will continue at roughly its current level. As you know from my analysis of energy and the economy, I am certain that we are facing a global collapse. What does this mean for Hansen’s climate prediction and prescription for avoiding a disaster for our grandchildren?

When collapse occurs we can conservatively expect half of the wealth and economic activity on the planet to be wiped out. And it’s entirely possible that the decline will be much deeper than 50% given the huge levels of debt and derivatives that need to be unwound. This means that there is no chance of us being able to afford the nuclear replacement of coal given the many trillions required for the switch. Which means we will continue to burn coal but at a reduced rate because of reduced economic activity. Will this reduced energy consumption be sufficient to save our grandchildren?

But it gets more complicated. At the end of his book Hansen summarized the key uncertainties in our understanding of climate science. One of the big uncertainties is the effect of aerosols on the earth’s energy balance. Aerosols are the particulates (soot) that are emitted from the combustion of coal and diesel and other industrial processes. Aerosols tend to mask the effect of CO2 by blocking sunlight. But unlike CO2 which remains in the atmosphere for centuries, aerosols fall out of the sky after a week or so. So when economic collapse occurs, we can expect energy production and industrial activity to dramatically drop and thus aerosol production to dramatically drop. Which means that in a very short period of time we will experience increased effect of our CO2, which means we may experience a global warming “surge”.

Climate scientists acknowledge the presence of a tipping point beyond which the climate will warm no matter what we do. Many scientists are very scared that we are close to this tipping point. Hence Hansen’s call to arms for us to get back below 350 ppm.  Will the warming surge caused by economic collapse push us past the climate’s tipping point?

So now let me try to sum this all up.

If you do not believe Hansen’s predictions and prescriptions, then you really should read his book. It is very persuasive and I think it will give you confidence that he knows what he is talking about. In fact you should read it regardless. We all need to understand this stuff given the stakes.

If you do not believe that the economy will collapse, and you believe Hansen’s science, then you know exactly what needs to be done. You should push the Canadian and Alberta governments to shut down the tar sands immediately. You should push for replacing all of our coal-fired power plants with nuclear plants. You should support a carbon tax. You should support sending aid to developing countries to discourage deforestation. And you should support government policies to control population growth.

If, on the other hand, you believe my prediction of economic collapse, then our actions are less clear. We need to ask our scientists to answer the questions: 1) How much economic activity reduction is required to get us back to below 350 ppm? 2) What are the implications of a sudden drop in aerosols? With answers to these questions we can derive any further actions required to protect our grandchildren. Hopefully nothing more will need to be done than to survive a permanent economic depression.